Miz-waukee’s Best — The Brandon League

Last updated Saturday, September 05 · 12:33 PM ET

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Any player in the league universe · tap a result for the card.

☕ Morning Briefing

🏆 MIZ sits at 1st overall with 105.0 roto points, a comfortable 21.5 pts ahead of #2 Hit the Damn Ball You Bums — a lead that grew by 0.5 pts since the last update. Watch SV closely: KRTZ is just 3 saves back, and SB offers a quick roto point if you can close a 4-steal gap on THAR.

⚾ Your guys delivered across the board yesterday. Blake Snell was the headliner: 6 IP, 0 ER, 7 K, a win — exactly the ratio-safe, counting-stat line you need. Cole Carrigg (2-for-5, HR, R, RBI) and Miguel Vargas (1-for-4, HR, R, RBI) each went deep, while Yandy Diaz added a quiet 3-for-5 to pad AVG. Notably, Vargas's homer was his 30th of the season per today's box scores — he's keeping elite company in the White Sox lineup.

🔭 Stash-board prospect Bo Davidson (RI 91, currently a FA) went 2-for-4 with a HR and 3 RBI at AAA vs. Salt Lake Bees — exactly the kind of thump that justifies a roster spot if one opens up.

📰 Two contact heat signals worth a quick look: Mark Vientos (89/99 heat, 0.464 xwOBAcon over 9 BBE) and Ryan Vilade (87/99, 0.557 xwOBAcon over 8 BBE) have both flipped recently — small samples, early signals, not yet on the Heat Board. On the call-up front, Daniel Espino returning to Cleveland and Joey Estes recalled by the Athletics are the moves most worth monitoring for SP streamers, both available as free agents. Meanwhile, Brayan Rocchio had a monster doubleheader for Cleveland — a grand slam and a walk-off HR in Game 1, then the game-winning RBI in Game 2 — worth noting for anyone in a shortstop-thin league.

ELIGIBILITYK. Schwarber 1B 7/10P. Ramirez 1B 4/10

Your standing

1stof 12

105.0 roto pts +21.5 clear of 2nd

+0.5 pts vs last update

Top Gaps

SB (7.0) W (7.0)

categories below mid-pack

Score change since last update

W +0.5

🎯 Category Pressure

Category ranks vs. the league.

Rank →

Δ to #1

955

1032

🥇

274

301

🥇

RBI

890

919

🥇

131

138

142

197

+59

AVG

.254

.256

.257

.259

+0.003

1189

1211

1352

+141

+12

+14

ERA

3.42

3.31

🥇

WHIP

1.17

1.12

🥇

📅 Yesterday's MIZ Box Scores (2026-09-04)

Loading box scores…

🏥 IL Rehab Tracker

IL players · rehab game logs.

Joe Ryan (SP) IL15 on rehab
AAA2026-09-01 · 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K, 0 BB

On the IL, no rehab games yet: Spencer Schwellenbach (IL60 · watch).

📊 League Activity (last 24h)

All adds, drops, and trades across the 12 teams.

Team	Move
Phil Swift's Flex Seal	+ Zac Thornton \| − Angel Martinez

🏆 League Standings

Current roto points · 10,000-sim projected finish. FAAB = acquisition budget remaining.

100.0% to win the league · proj finish 1.0 · 102.6 roto pts

#	Team	Pts	FAAB	Win%	Proj Pts	Range	Proj Rk
1	MIZ Miz-waukee’s Best	105.0	$0	100.0%	102.6	99–105	1.0
2	FRAN Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	83.5	$59	0.0%	85.8	81–91	2.4
3	KRTZ Photogenic Nick Kurtz	80.0	$20	0.0%	83.6	78–89	2.9
4	PEYT Phil Swift's Flex Seal	78.0	$25	0.0%	80.9	75–87	3.5
5	GoOs I need Buck Showalter	68.0	$170	0.0%	69.0	64–74	5.5
6	BLOB Camp MVP	67.5	$168	0.0%	68.9	65–72	5.5
7	KNIG Team Knighton	64.0	$137	0.0%	61.2	57–65	7.1
8	THAR Phil Mickeltits	61.0	$176	0.0%	58.0	53–63	7.8
9	GARR The Boys of Summer	47.5	$155	0.0%	48.4	44–53	9.3
10	DORN Dorn and Associates LLC	46.0	$89	0.0%	46.6	43–51	9.7
11	FRST Worst2First	40.0	$154	0.0%	41.1	38–45	10.9
12	RAGE Ramirez Against the Machine	39.5	$163	0.0%	34.0	31–37	12.0

10,000 sims · fixed seed · noise CV talent 0.12 / idio 0.06 / team-cat 0.08 · assumes ATC rest-of-season rates

Your categories · projected roto points

R 12.0HR 12.0RBI 11.9SB 6.8AVG 9.4W 6.7SV 9.0K 10.8ERA 12.0WHIP 12.0

Winnable — push here: SB, AVG, W, SV.

🚨 Today's Streaming Board

158 of 200 GS · should be 176 · 18 behindBehind pace — stream aggressively

042 left · ~13.4/wk to cap · proj 179200

⏳ BP's post is late — Verdict pill is running on our score + Pitcher List for now (BP joins the top-2 once it posts).

Top FA streamers today

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Brandon Pfaadt	@ HOU	START	—	4.9	#10	Best pitch separation ever; sinker/sweeper sustainability questioned.
Dustin May	@ CIN	DART	—	4.9	#15	Three abnormal outings; hoping rhythm returns here.
Yusei Kikuchi	@ PIT	DART	—	4.0	#14	Strong slider, strike-throwing, favorable LHP park split.
Anthony Molina	@ NYM	SIT⚠ opener	—	5.8	#25	Four-seamer profile intrigues; sneaky September streamer upside.
Javier Assad	@ MIA	SIT⚠ opener	—	4.3	#20	75-pitch minor-league tune-up done; fine for cheap win shot.
Anthony Kay	vs MIN	SIT	—	3.5	#17	Control improving but ceiling remains limited.
Martin Perez	@ PHI	SIT	—	3.4	#18	Pitching well enough for a cheap win chance.
Max Scherzer	@ KC	SIT	—	4.1	#21	Last start was outlier; regression expected, avoid despite Do-Not rank.
Ryan Gusto	vs CHC	SIT	—	4.0	#27	Not worth the risk; hard pass.
Chris Bassitt	vs BOS	SITleash	—	3.1	#23	Long leash but outcomes at its end are ugly.

Your staff: 3.31 ERA / 1.12 WHIP · GS 158/200 — Behind pace — stream aggressively. Verdict = the best 2 of BP · our score · Pitcher List, averaged (low outlier dropped); before BP posts it's our score + PL. ⚠ = our matchup score dissented — eyeball that one. Tap a MIZ score for the reasoning.

Tomorrow · 1 of yours + top 5 FA · Sun 9/6 · BP not out yet, so pill = our score + Pitcher List

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Kyle Harrison	@ CIN	DART	—	4.0	#11	Velo still down; HR vulnerability makes Sunday a risky play.
Tyler Mahle	@ PHI	START	—	5.5	#16	On a hot streak despite slightly worse command than peak.
Walbert Ureña	@ PIT	START	—	4.5	#10	Has been consistently excellent; strong streaming option.
Peter Lambert	vs AZ	START	—	4.3	#9	Command intact; legitimate quality-start upside.
Christian Scott	vs SF	DART	—	4.4	#15	LHB approach solid; RHB attack must hold vs. weak lineup.
Bailey Ober	@ CWS	SIT	—	4.8	#24	Velo at 87 mph; only White Sox matchup saves him.

📼 Streamer Report Card

Does the Streaming Board actually work? Every pick it showed, frozen at pick time and graded off the real box score. Two scoreboards below: first our own calls — the Verdict ladder and MIZ (our matchup score, 0–10) — then the outside lists behind them, BP (RelieverRecon's daily BP Streamers post) and PL (Pitcher List's tier ranking). Grades are recomputed from raw lines on every build — the rubric can change, the history follows.

Last 30d · 347 starts graded over 29 days · GOOD+ 47% · BLOWUP 18% · agg ERA 4.40 · WHIP 1.34 · 4.4 K/start · 373 picks logged, 14 never started, 12 awaiting a box score — not graded

Grade mix · all 347 graded starts

GEM 64 GOOD 100 OK 121 BLOWUP 62

GEM6+ IP, ≤1 ER · or 6+ IP, 8+ K, ≤2 ERGOODquality start (6+ IP, ≤3 ER) · or 5+ IP, ≤2 EROKheld the line without earning GOODBLOWUP5+ ER · or under 4 IP with 4+ ERGOOD+ = GEM + GOOD. A pick whose starter never took the ball grades to nothing and leaves every rate below.

Cohort	n	GOOD+	BLOWUP	ERA
Q1 — Do our own calls work? · Verdict ladder + MIZ bands · live board rows only, nothing backfilled
Verdict · AUTO START	26	73%	15%	3.22
Verdict · START	46	57%	11%	3.94
Verdict · DART	90	43%	14%	4.76
Verdict · SIT	185	43%	22%	4.53
MIZ ≥ 5.0	119	61%	14%	3.73
MIZ 3.5–4.9	133	44%	20%	4.78
MIZ < 3.5	78	36%	21%	5.01
All live board picks	347	47%	18%	4.40
Q1 read — GOOD+ falls 73% · 57% · 43% · 43% down the rungs, but BLOWUP does not rise with it, and MIZ sorts: GOOD+ falls 61% · 44% · 36% from the top band down.
Q2 — Which outside list earns the weight? · BP and PL graded on their own published lists · mostly rebuilt from git
PL · Auto Start	26	69%	19%	3.82
PL · Probably Start	40	58%	12%	3.89
PL · Questionable Start	97	49%	16%	4.54
PL · Do Not Start	160	43%	21%	4.48
BP · Auto	11	36%	9%	4.74
BP · Likely	31	45%	16%	4.33
All graded picks	347	47%	18%	4.40
Q2 read — against the 47% all-picks baseline, PL's top tiers clear it (69% · 58%) and BP's top tiers are too thin to call (36% · 45% on n=11 · n=31).

Rows are overlapping lenses on the same picks, not a partition — one start can be a PL Auto Start and a Verdict SIT at once, so they never sum to the headline; each group is read against its own baseline row.

⚠ Dissent check — the override is ahead so far — 71% GOOD+ on n=7. Splits are picks the board started over our MIZ sit-call (vs 47% for all live picks).

Calibration — do our numbers mean anything? · full season, 2026-06-29→2026-09-04 · 948 graded picks · MIZ on 408, BP on 230, Verdict on 429

The ladder above asks whether the tiers sort. This asks the harder question: is the number a probability — when the board says 7, do 70% of those starts come back GOOD+? Bins are equal-count and merge until every one clears n=15; the walk-forward rows are scored against a model that only ever saw earlier days.

Score bin	n	mean	GOOD+	95% CI
MIZ score → P(GOOD+) · our matchup score, 0–10 · live rows only · n=408
MIZ 0.5–3.3	94	2.6	40%	31%–51%
MIZ 3.4–3.9	69	3.7	45%	34%–57%
MIZ 4.0–4.8	90	4.4	51%	41%–61%
MIZ 4.9–5.6	80	5.2	54%	43%–64%
MIZ 5.7–8.9	75	6.4	64%	53%–74%
All MIZ-scored picks	408	—	50%	—
BP score → P(GOOD+) · RelieverRecon's published rating · includes git-backfilled rows · n=230
BP 4.6–6.6	48	6.1	35%	23%–50%
BP 6.7–7.3	44	7.0	52%	38%–66%
BP 7.4–7.7	47	7.5	45%	31%–59%
BP 7.8–8.4	47	8.1	47%	33%–61%
BP 8.5–10.0	44	9.1	43%	30%–58%
All BP-scored picks	230	—	44%	—
Verdict tier → P(GOOD+) · the consensus call itself · live rows only
AUTO START	30	—	70%	52%–83%
START	56	—	57%	44%–69%
DART	112	—	48%	39%–57%
SIT	231	—	47%	40%–53%

Out-of-sample	n	value	vs
Walk-forward probability · logistic on MIZ, refit daily on earlier days only · from 2026-08-05 · 30 days
Brier — our probability	344	0.246	lower is better
Brier — flat base rate to date	344	0.255	we win by 0.008
Brier — verdict-tier history	344	0.255	we win by 0.009
Log loss — our probability	344	0.686	lower is better
ECE — our probability	344	0.054	5 equal-count bins
ECE bins · predicted p vs what actually happened
said 32%–47%	69	41%	off by 2%
said 47%–51%	69	41%	off by 9%
said 51%–56%	68	43%	off by 11%
said 56%–60%	69	58%	off by 0%
said 60%–74%	69	59%	off by 5%
Verdict — usable with caveats: ECE 0.054 over n=344 out-of-sample picks (≤0.03 well calibrated · ≤0.07 usable with caveats); edges the flat base rate on Brier (0.246 vs 0.255, a thin margin; log-loss ~coin-flip).

🔥 Today's Hitter Streamers

Top 10 FA bats for today's slate · score = split vs SP hand (35%) + SP softness (35%) + bat quality (15%) + trailing 15 days (10%) + park (5%) · facing an elite arm fades the score hard (feast on weak pitchers).

#	Hitter	Matchup	Why	Legs	Score
1	AUTO STARTMickey GasperC · 12% own	@ BAL · Bassitt RHP	szn .373 xwOBAL15: 1.446 OPS (47 PA)L14 contact +6.0 (.624 xwOBAcon, 26 BBE)usually bats 2nd (×1.10)beats 2 of 2 eligible startersBassitt .345 allowed · soft SP0.986 OPS vs RHP (132 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	103
2	AUTO STARTEsmerlyn ValdezRF · 14% own	vs LAA · Kikuchi LHP	szn .328 xwOBAL15: 0.727 OPS (34 PA)L14 contact +6.0 (.519 xwOBAcon, 14 BBE)usually bats 6th (×0.98)fills OF needbeats 5 of 6 eligible startersKikuchi .351 allowed · soft SP1.067 OPS vs LHP (84 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	82
3	AUTO STARTAndrew Vaughn1B · 4% own	@ CIN · Abbott LHP	szn .336 xwOBAL15: 0.932 OPS (37 PA)L14 contact -1.8 (.329 xwOBAcon, 25 BBE)usually bats 5thbeats 4 of 4 eligible startersAbbott .342 allowed · soft SP0.99 OPS vs LHP (100 AB)CIN plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	80
4	AUTO STARTLars NootbaarLF · 3% own	@ HOU · Pecko RHP	szn .343 xwOBAL15: 0.896 OPS (37 PA)L14 contact +3.4 (.445 xwOBAcon, 28 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)fills OF needbeats 5 of 6 eligible startersPecko .400 allowed · soft SP0.743 OPS vs RHP (192 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	78
5	AUTO STARTKyle Karros3B · 2% own	vs STL · Liberatore LHP	szn .338 xwOBAbeats 2 of 3 eligible startersLiberatore .339 allowed · soft SP0.797 OPS vs LHP (125 AB)COL plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	64
6	STARTBryan TorresRF · 0% own	@ COL · Adams RHP	szn .296 xwOBAusually bats 1st (×1.12)fills OF needbeats 4 of 8 eligible startersAdams .344 allowed · soft SP0.754 OPS vs RHP (105 AB)COL plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	64
7	DEPTHGary SanchezC · 2% own	@ CIN · Abbott LHP	szn .341 xwOBAusually bats 7th (×0.95)beats 0 of 2 eligible startersAbbott .342 allowed · soft SP0.817 OPS vs LHP (92 AB)CIN plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	63
8	STARTJesus SanchezRF · 1% own	@ KC · Lugo RHP	szn .326 xwOBAusually bats 5thfills OF needbeats 2 of 6 eligible startersLugo .346 allowed · soft SP0.792 OPS vs RHP (233 AB)KC plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	63
9	AUTO STARTEdmundo Sosa2B · 1% own	vs ATL · Pérez LHP	szn .338 xwOBAL14 contact +6.0 (.556 xwOBAcon, 14 BBE)usually bats 6th (×0.98)fills OF needbeats 6 of 11 eligible startersPérez .327 allowed · soft SP0.795 OPS vs LHP (109 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	62
10	STARTTurner HillCF · 0% own	@ NYM · Thornton LHP	szn .368 xwOBAL15: 0.922 OPS (50 PA)L14 contact -0.9 (.351 xwOBAcon, 35 BBE)usually bats 5thfills OF needbeats 2 of 6 eligible startersThornton .329 allowed · soft SP	L15 bat SP L/R park	60

Tiers vs YOUR lineup tonight — median starter 57, worst James Wood (25). AUTO START = beats the median eligible starter.

TBD starter = neutral SP + split legs until the probable posts (refresh upgrades it). Splits need 30+ AB vs that hand. IL bats are excluded; bats who rarely start against tonight's hand are dropped. Doubleheaders: legs average the ends he plays, and everyday bats get up to a ×1.50 volume boost. Lineup slot scales the score by expected PAs from the bat's usual spot (leadoff ×1.12 … 9-hole ×0.90, modal over the last ~10 played days) — his typical order, not today's card, since that posts after waivers run.

🎯 FA Hitters — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Kyle Schwarber

1Mickey GasperC · Bos · 12.0%HEATER

92/99 heat on 26 BBE with .624 xwOBAcon; elite contact quality corroborated by 3 HR, .333 BA last 7d

Heat 92 · 26 BBE · ATC 25 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.225 · L7 0.333 · 3 HR · sim +0.1 pts

2Francisco Alvarez

C · NYM · 9.1% · HEATER

83/99 heat, 15 BBE borderline but .572 xwOBAcon + 2 HR last 7d corroborates; best power upside at C

Heat 83 · 15 BBE · ATC 59 PA · 3 HR · 0 SB · 0.233 · L7 0.267 · 2 HR · sim +0.1 pts

3Sean Murphy

C · Atl · 1.0% · HEATER

83/99 heat on 17 BBE, .542 xwOBAcon; .333 BA, 2 HR, 5 RBI last 7d confirms signal

Heat 83 · 17 BBE · ATC 45 PA · 2 HR · 0 SB · 0.216 · L7 0.333 · 2 HR · sim +0.1 pts

4Ty France

1B · SD · 15.1% · BEST VALUE

.435 BA, 2 HR, 6 RBI last 7d; ATC 88 PA projects most volume among non-heat candidates

ATC 88 PA · 3 HR · 0 SB · 0.257 · L7 0.435 · 2 HR · sim +0.0 pts

5Xander Bogaerts

SS · SD · 18.5% · CATEGORY FIT

Best SB upside (3 projected) among everday bats; MIZ only 4 SB from gaining a rank

ATC 87 PA · 2 HR · 3 SB · 0.259 · L7 0.263 · 0 HR · sim +0.3 pts

Passed on: Luis Robert Jr. left off despite legitimate 29-BBE heat because only 66 PA projected RoS and .125 BA last 7 undercut the volume argument against deeper catcher options with equal sim deltas.

💪 Hitter List Rankings

PL Top 150 hitters · your bats + top FAs.

On Hitter List · 17 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Hitter	MLB	Pos	Chg	AVG	xwOBA	HR	SB	RoS	Chu’s Take
16	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	DH	+3	.238	.360	40	3	127
18	Randy Arozarena	SEA	OF	-	.271	.349	22	21	123
21	Miguel Vargas	CHW	1B/3B	+19	.251	.387	30	15	113	Miguel Vargas has returned to the levels we saw early this summer and that really revs my engine. He’s one of those players who has shown…
36	Yandy Díaz	TB	1B	+3	.306	.355	21	3	122
46	Zach Neto	LAA	SS	+11	.234	.304	23	19	109	Zach Neto has been a monster over the last nine games, with 17 hits, 18 combined runs and RBI (a seven RBI night helps), and seven extra-…
59	Jac Caglianone	KC	1B/OF	+13	.281	.357	23	6	107	Jac Caglianone still hits a lot of grounders, but not quite as many as before (the rolling 15-game rate is a hair below 50%) and the stri…
72	Ty France	SD	1B	+12	.295	.332	20	1	106
77	Royce Lewis	MIN	1B/2B/3B	-15	.238	.317	14	14	103	Royce Lewis is streaky. We just gotta deal with that.
85	Cole Carrigg	COL	SS/OF	-22	.265	.323	7	8	68	The strikeouts have creeped up on Cole Carrigg , up to 32% over his last 11 games (which is, conveniently, exactly 50 plate appearances).…
106	Luis Robert Jr.	NYM	OF	+UR	.221	.321	11	2	95
109	Mickey Gasper	BOS	C	+UR	.283	.373	8	0	94	Mickey Gasper — Fantastic mustache, first of all. Second of all, the batted ball data suggests what’s happening of late is very real, tho…
115	Kaelen Culpepper	MIN	SS	+UR	.301	.316	3	1	91	Kaelen Culpepper — Culpepper puts a lot of balls in play and it’s working out so far. The BABIP Gods can be cruel, though. The 55 point g…
119	Rafael Flores Jr.	PIT	C/1B	+UR	.211	.333	7	0	83
133	Connor Norby	COL	1B/2B/3B	+UR	.223	.295	6	8	87	Connor Norby still has huge contact issues but the guy can hit the ball hard in the air and plays for Colorado so stream away.
135	Henry Bolte	ATH	OF	+UR	.274	.312	8	15	91	Henry Bolte is leading off again and should get some games in Sacramento soon, if you need a streamer.
143	Alejandro Kirk	TOR	C	+UR	.274	.306	8	1	110
145	Tyler Stephenson	CIN	C	-33	.246	.337	14	0	98
146	Ryan Jeffers	MIN	C	-29	.272	.354	13	1	118
148	Andruw Monasterio	BOS	2B/SS	-26	.247	.299	6	4	91
149	Dylan Crews	WSH	OF	-35	.216	.309	10	8	87
150	Luis Rengifo	SD	2B/3B/OF	-24	.240	.304	4	6	—
TS	Bryce Eldridge	SF	1B	—	.262	.357	15	1	99	Bryce Eldridge (1B, SFG) — Power prospects can often take a while to really shine.
TS	Jordan Lawlar	Ari	3B/OF	—	.269	.308	4	4	89	Jordan Lawlar (3B/OF, ARI) — I do not love that he’s sat against two of the three righties the D-Backs have faced, nor the strikeouts. He…
TS	Pedro Ramirez	ChC	2B/3B	—	.277	.299	4	7	91	Pedro Ramirez (2B/3B, CHC) — Hitting well when he plays, which is not very often.
TS	Walker Jenkins	Min	OF	—	.130	.257	1	1	92	Walker Jenkins (OF, MIN) — Jenkins will get the call today after a white-hot month in the triple-A. He’s worth a scoop in most leagues, E…
UR	James Wood	Wsh	OF	—	.267	.417	30	17	129	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Ralphy Velazquez	Cle	1B	—	—	—	—	—	83	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.

🔥 Heat Board

Hottest ACTIVE free-agent bats by contact quality, 8/22–9/4 · Heat = percentile vs all MLB bats over the same window (xwOBAcon 30 · EV 20 · Brl 20 · HH 15 · K 10 · BB 5) · min 15 BBE to qualify (smaller samples live in the HM rail) · IL excluded.

Mickey Gasper

C · Bos · 12.0% own · xwOBAcon .624 · EV 91.4 · Brl 23.1% · 26 BBE

▲ .123 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.283	8	22	22	0
L14	.406	5	7	8	0

Lars Nootbaar

LF · Ari · 2.8% own · xwOBAcon .445 · EV 93.0 · Brl 14.3% · 28 BBE

▲ .045 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.228	6	27	29	2
L14	.273	2	8	4	0

Elias Diaz

C · Tex · 0.1% own · xwOBAcon .449 · EV 94.4 · Brl 28.6% · 21 BBE

▲ .017 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.233	7	29	18	0
L14	.250	2	9	4	0

Amed Rosario

3B · NYY · 0.6% own · xwOBAcon .436 · EV 94.8 · Brl 11.1% · 18 BBE

▲ .112 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.238	10	31	26	2
L14	.350	0	3	3	1

Luis Robert Jr.

CF · Bal · 14.3% own · xwOBAcon .452 · EV 92.3 · Brl 24.1% · 29 BBE

▲ .016 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.221	11	26	26	2
L14	.237	4	7	6	0

Sean Murphy

C · Atl · 1.0% own · xwOBAcon .542 · EV 90.5 · Brl 17.6% · 17 BBE

▲ .151 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.234	3	8	8	0
L14	.385	3	8	7	0

Francisco Alvarez

C · NYM · 9.1% own · xwOBAcon .572 · EV 93.6 · Brl 20.0% · 15 BBE

▼ .020 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.234	15	36	31	0
L14	.214	2	6	2	0

Michael Conforto

LF · ChC · 0.4% own · xwOBAcon .531 · EV 90.9 · Brl 11.8% · 17 BBE

▲ .166 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.234	13	37	29	1
L14	.400	3	7	4	0

Michael Massey

2B · KC · 1.0% own · xwOBAcon .442 · EV 92.2 · Brl 6.7% · 15 BBE

▼ .013 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.280	11	45	46	3
L14	.267	0	1	0	1

Colton Cowser

CF · Bal · 1.7% own · xwOBAcon .455 · EV 93.4 · Brl 8.3% · 24 BBE

▲ .004 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.215	13	37	38	8
L14	.219	2	4	3	0

Honorable mention · hottest L7 (8/29–9/4), not yet on the board · tiny samples — peek, don't trust

Mark Vientos

3B · NYM

.464 xwOBAcon

9 BBE · .400 L7

Ryan Vilade

RF · TB

.557 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .222 L7

Leo Bernal

C · StL

.460 xwOBAcon

12 BBE · .333 L7

Yainer Diaz

C · Hou

.409 xwOBAcon

11 BBE · .286 L7

Justin Foscue

2B · Tex

.534 xwOBAcon

10 BBE · .333 L7

Rafael Flores Jr.

1B · Pit

.459 xwOBAcon

11 BBE · .118 L7

🎯 FA Pitchers — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Andres Munoz

1Andrew PainterSP · Phi · 15.3%HEATER

Elite suppression 87/99 on 50 BBE trusted sample; best ratio-safe volume SP available

Supp 87 · 50 BBE · ATC 18.0 IP · 1 W · 15 K · 4.78 · 1.39 · sim -0.6 pts

2Juan Morillo

RP · Ari · 3.4% · CATEGORY FIT

Closer role confirmed, 94/99 suppression on 12 BBE; saves play that won't bleed ERA/WHIP

Supp 94 · 12 BBE · ATC 8.0 IP · 0 W · 8 K · 3.83 · 1.35 · 1 SV · Closer · sim -0.4 pts

3Calvin Faucher

RP · Mia · 0.9% · FLOOR

Closer role, 77/99 suppression on 18 BBE; cleanest ratio profile among saves options

Supp 77 · 18 BBE · ATC 8.0 IP · 0 W · 8 K · 3.96 · 1.39 · 1 SV · Closer · sim -0.4 pts

4Keider Montero

SP · Det · 17.7% · BEST VALUE

Most volume (22 IP, 4 GS) with safest ratios of high-IP SPs; GS cap has room

Supp 78 · 33 BBE · ATC 22.0 IP · 1 W · 17 K · 4.57 · 1.33 · sim -0.6 pts

5Dustin May

SP · Mil · 16.3% · UPSIDE

Best K-rate and ERA projection among SPs; 16 BBE suppression needs corroboration but ATC leads field

Supp 45 · 16 BBE · ATC 21.0 IP · 1 W · 21 K · 4.09 · 1.26 · PL #15 · sim -0.6 pts

Passed on: Kikuchi ranked #14 by Pitcher List but 4/99 suppression on 37 BBE is a massive trusted-sample red flag that would actively bleed ERA/WHIP where MIZ is #1 and cannot afford regression.

⚾ Pitcher List Rankings

PL Top 100 SP · your arms + top FAs.

On Pitcher List · 6 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Pitcher	MLB	Chg	ERA	xERA	K/9	RoS	Pollack’s Take
1	Jacob Misiorowski	MIL	-	1.97	2.08	13.2	3.32	Like a base set Charizard, Misiorowski’s not gonna stop being dope.
9	Blake Snell	LAD	+7	1.97	2.11	12.1	3.42	#HotSnellSummer is in full swing.
10	Dylan Cease	TOR	-1	2.25	2.73	12.7	3.45	Like a perfect burger without the condiments to hit all your macros, Cease gives you everything except for a stable WHIP due to his infla…
20	Kyle Harrison	MIL	+8	3.45	3.52	10.9	4.12	With a dominant outing, he muted our concerns, but Harrison’s still displaying decreased velocity and not commanding as well as he did in…
22	Eury Pérez	MIA	-4	3.72	4.04	9.6	3.87	Pérez has the stuff to be an ace, but there’s polishing to do in the command and game plan departments to unlock his full potential.
30	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	-4	3.54	3.65	6.5	4.19	Baseball’s premier innings eater hasn’t ruined his appetite.
38	Jacob Lopez	ATH	+6	4.71	3.40	8.8	4.63	It’s the 2025 hot streak all over again. Enjoy the ride, ya’ll!
39	Dustin May	MIL	-	4.69	4.21	8.5	4.09	May got Singled Out in a disastrous performance, but his stuff is still dope, and his new situation is ideal. Higher win chance, great de…
40	Walbert Ureña	LAA	-	2.85	3.40	8.8	4.54	Armed with upper-90s heaters and one of the best changeups in baseball, Ureña has hit few speed bumps. If that developing sweeper becomes…
43	Andrew Painter	PHI	+UR	5.55	4.33	7.8	4.78	From off The List to inside the Top 50, Painter has stolen our hearts with an improved heater (97+ mph with 17-18″ iVB) and emphasis on r…
45	Peter Lambert	HOU	-4	3.66	3.60	8.9	4.58	Lambert’s stumble last time was a product of being Singled Out . He’s been reliable all year, but we should be recognizing that Holly is …
46	Jared Jones	PIT	-8	4.46	3.63	10.5	3.99	The stuff is top-tier, but he’s still shaking off the Tommy John surgery rust with his command and the tight leash the Pirates have on hi…
54	Joey Cantillo	CLE	-8	3.81	4.04	9.6	4.05	Efficiency is a problem, but Cantillo is doing everything we want. More curveballs, faster fastballs, and supportive cutters. Throw more …
56	Shane Bieber	TOR	+14	4.37	5.95	7.1	4.19	Bieber is back in business. His heater looked awesome in The Trop, and his offspeed pitches are being the CSW monsters they need to be to…
57	Tyler Mahle	ATL	-	4.25	4.18	8.7	4.10	Mahle’s command and velocity have been stellar since returning from the IL in late June. He’s got an even better situation pitching in At…
58	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	-	3.49	3.76	5.9	4.60	Despite what the line suggests, Pfaadt’s last start wasn’t an end to his Vargas Rule . It was a textbook Careful, Icarus with a three-run…

🔒 Closer Chart

Save targets · roles + regression flags.

BLUEEntrenched closer (highest leverage)GREENNext man up / committee pieceYELLOWSetup, 8th-inning leverageORANGESpeculative / lower priorityMAGENTAHigh-upside future / multi-inning

	Pitcher	Tm	Role	SV	SVHD	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K/9	Rtg / Own
Yours on the chart
—	Andrés Muñoz	Seattle Mariners	CL	24	24	51.3	4.21	1.17	3.20 ↓	14.4	5.0 · —
—	Louis Varland	Toronto Blue Jays	CL	32	37	69.7	1.16	0.99	2.19 ↑	11.1	5.0 · —
Top 5 FA closers (by team rating)
—	Andrew Kittredge	Baltimore Orioles	CL	9	18	44.0	3.27	1.39	4.04	7.6	4.0 · 4%
—	Jacob Webb	Chicago Cubs	CL	9	17	60.0	3.15	1.23	4.06	9.8	4.0 · 6%
—	Steven Cruz HLR	Kansas City Royals	CL	6	11	52.7	4.27	1.23	4.09	9.7	3.5 · 1%
	Elvis Alvarado	The Athletics	CL	5	14	46.0	4.11	1.22	4.51	10.6	3.0 · 3%
	Juan Morillo	Arizona Diamondbacks	CL	3	20	55.3	2.11	1.05	2.30	10.4	3.0 · 3%
🌱 Green-tagged FA — upside / stash
	Tyler Wells	Tampa Bay Rays	ST	6	21	68.0	2.51	0.93	3.01	8.7	5.0 · 3%

ERA cell: green <3.00 · red >4.50. xERA arrow: ↓ ERA likely to fall (buy) · ↑ ERA likely to rise (sell). Triggers when |xERA−ERA| ≥ 1.00.

✂️ Cut List

Drop priority · value, form, pedigree, role.

45	Royce Lewis 3B · Min low TV (18) sim cost ~0	TV 18 Rd 13
26	Kyle Harrison SP · Mil mid TV (44); cold last 7d; UFDA — easy to drop; BUT top-tier keeper sim cost ~0	TV 44 UFDA
18	Ryan Jeffers C · Min mid TV (36); BUT top-tier keeper; BUT young breakout signal sim cost ~0	TV 36 UFDA
11	Sandy Alcantara SP · Mia BUT solid keeper sim cost ~0	TV 72 Rd 14
9	Blake Snell SP · LAD BUT strong RoS (3.42 ERA) sim cost ~0	TV 80 Rd 8

Higher score = drop sooner — top 5 by score, and only 8+ reaches the board, so the number has no ceiling and is only comparable within this list. The sim line is a roto-sim marginal (cut vs. keep on one shared set of draws), not a measured cost. Pedigree + named closers shielded.

🌱 Stash List

PL's top prospects · grab them cheap.

Hitters

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 23: Top 10 Hitting Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + PSS + PFV + age + 40-man + path.

20 available — 1 yours

R. Velazquez YOURS

1B/C · CLE · AA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

28·2·.290

J. Tibbs III

OF · LAD · AAA · 23 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

28·8·.293

S. Thompson

OF · COL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

12·17·.301

B. Davidson

OF · SFG · AAA · 24 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

September

Szn

27·19·.280

C. Cannarella

OF · MIA · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

15·21·.338

S. Walcott

3B/SS · TEX · AA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

8·9·.318

M. Anderson

2B · DET · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

16·5·.306

S. King

SS/2B/3B · WSN · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

19·14·.313

Z. Hope

OF · DET · AA · 21 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

27·24·.284

J. Melton

OF · TB · AAA · 25 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

8·27·.280

M. Arroyo

SS · SEA · AAA · 21 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

18·17·.286

R. Ward

LF · LAD · AAA · 28 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

20·7·.249

H. Mendez

OF · MIN · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

12·4·.280

C. Ingle

C · CLE · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

18·2·.281

J. Made

SS · MIL · AA · 19 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

13·36·.267

P. Harber

3B · SFG · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

'27

Szn

17·4·.273

J. Long

1B · CHC · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

13·3·.276

K. Alderman

OF · MIA · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

18·10·.256

R. Clifford

1B · NYM · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

16·8·.174

D. Crisantes

2B/3B · ARI · AAA · 21 · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

blocked

Szn

9·0·.292

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

Pitchers

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 23: Top 10 Pitching Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + L3 quality + FV + age + 40-man + path.

27 available

B. Mautz

SP · STL · AAA · 24 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

99K·4.37

L. Perales

SP · WSN · AAA · 23 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

102K·4.17

H. Smith

SP · CHW · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

August 1st

Szn

106K·3.66

C. Seymour

SP · SFG · AAA · 27 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

87K·3.95

K. Curtis

SP · PIT · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

115K·4.53

R. Snelling

SP · MIA · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

46K·2.38

R. Sloan

SP · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

117K·3.50

J. Tong

SP · NYM · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

133K·4.46

T. Bremner

SP · LAA · AA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

92K·4.08

T. Johnson

SP · TBR · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

84K·3.03

O. Murphy

SP · ATL · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

122K·3.74

M. Bratt

SP · ARI · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

82K·3.92

J. Wenninger

SP · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

115K·4.24

M. Forret

SP · BAL · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

125K·3.89

B. Garrett

SP · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

June 1st

Szn

110K·3.94

A. Kelly

SP · PIT · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

76K·4.33

T. McDougal

SP · CHW · AAA · 23 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

49K·4.53

J. Ritchie

SP · ATL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

118K·3.88

D. Davalillo

SP · TEX · AAA · 24 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

94K·5.15

C. Dana

SP · LAA · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

80K·5.53

M. Ullola

SP · HOU · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

99K·4.23

D. Sandlin

SP · CHW · MLB · 25 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

99K·3.35

B. Hopkins

SP · TBR · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

118K·5.28

C. Crow

SP · MIL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

101K·3.74

G. Wood

SP · PHI · AA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

134K·4.40

T. Gibson

SP · BAL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

98K·4.98

L. Braun

SP · ATL · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

104K·3.64

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

🔭 12 not a 2026 factor — Bryce Mayer · Anthony Eyanson · Liam Doyle · Jamie Arnold · Tyson Hardin · Christian Zazueta · Daniel Eagen · Joseph Dzierwa · Jaxon Wiggins · Jonathan Santucci · Jurrangelo Cijntje · Karson Milbrandt

💼 Trades

Buy-low targets · league trade history.

Top Buy-Lows

Rebound candidates · suggested offers.

Hitters

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Juan Soto RF · NYM · GARR · jregarris +1.2σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.277 / xBA 0.295 · xwOBA 0.419	100%	159 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Kyle Schwarber DH · comparable value (TV 100 vs target 100)
📈 BUY-LOW	JJ Bleday CF · Cin · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.2σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.221 / xBA 0.244 · xwOBA 0.350	22%	104 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Henry Bolte RF + Royce Lewis 3B · two-piece package (TV 22 vs target 27)
📈 BUY-LOW	Heriberto Hernandez LF · Mia · FRAN · francisw789 +1.3σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.230 / xBA 0.248 · xwOBA 0.354	11%	99 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 35 vs target 33)
↑ mild buy	Taylor Ward LF · Sea · GoOs · My Best Guys +0.7σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.225 / xBA 0.240 · xwOBA 0.333	59%	118 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Zach Neto SS · comparable value (TV 60 vs target 60)
↑ mild buy	Dominic Canzone RF · Sea · GARR · jregarris +0.7σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.254 / xBA 0.269 · xwOBA 0.357	12%	114 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 35 vs target 34)
↑ mild buy	Ronald Acuna Jr. RF · Atl · GoOs · My Best Guys +0.8σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.249 / xBA 0.254 · xwOBA 0.358	98%	136 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Blake Snell SP + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 80 vs target 86)
📈 BUY-LOW	Mike Trout OF · LAA · KNIG · TKHOO +1.4σ buy-low · OF — fits a need · BA 0.239 / xBA 0.252 · xwOBA 0.376	92%	127 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Sandy Alcantara SP · comparable value (TV 72 vs target 76)
📈 BUY-LOW	Corey Seager SS · Tex · PEYT · simplejack2k9 +1.4σ buy-low · SS — modest fit · BA 0.227 / xBA 0.248 · xwOBA 0.352	59%	130 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Jac Caglianone RF + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 51 vs target 58)
↑ mild buy	Jarren Duran LF · Bos · RAGE · glhoward40 +0.8σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.204 / xBA 0.235 · xwOBA 0.297	67%	101 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Jac Caglianone RF · comparable value (TV 51 vs target 57)
↑ mild buy	Heliot Ramos LF · NYY · DORN · Lambertmt48 +0.6σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.239 / xBA 0.254 · xwOBA 0.324	10%	104 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Ralphy Velazquez 1B · comparable value (TV 2 vs target 7)

Pitchers

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Kodai Senga SP · NYM · KRTZ · FratSkins +1.2σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 7.23 vs xERA 5.02	10%	3.96 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Ralphy Velazquez 1B · comparable value (TV 2 vs target 4)
📈 BUY-LOW	Kade Anderson SP · Sea · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.5σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 5.40 vs xERA 3.15	21%	4.62 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Henry Bolte RF + Royce Lewis 3B + +$3 FAAB · two-piece package (TV 22 vs target 29)
↑ mild buy	Freddy Peralta SP · TB · KNIG · TKHOO +0.7σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.96 vs xERA 3.90	73%	4.01 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Jac Caglianone RF + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 51 vs target 58)
↑ mild buy	Bryce Miller SP · Sea · BLOB · crenshawh19 +0.5σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.01 vs xERA 3.32	30%	4.10 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Kyle Harrison SP · comparable value (TV 44 vs target 48)

League History

Completed trades · frozen grade at the deal + live grade now.

Side	Sent	At deal	Now	Trend
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Andy Pages	A- +7	A+ +45	▲ up
Camp MVP	Pete Crow-Armstrong	C -7	F -45	▼ down
Team Knighton ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Team Knighton	Matthew Boyd	F -22	F -22
Camp MVP	Kenley Jansen	A+ +22	A+ +22
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Worst2First 2026-08-10
Miz-waukee’s Best	Charlie Condon, Payton Tolle	A+ +50	A+ +33	▼ down
Worst2First	Dylan Cease	F -50	F -33	▲ up
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Dorn and Associates LLC 2026-08-05
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Travis Bazzana, George Lombard Jr., Nolan McLean	A+ +144	A+ +105	▼ down
Dorn and Associates LLC	Jackson Chourio, Jhoan Duran, Brice Turang, David Bednar	F -144	F -105	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-07-31
Miz-waukee’s Best	Samuel Basallo, Kade Anderson	A- +8	A+ +20	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine	Blake Snell	C -8	F -20	▼ down
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Team Knighton 2026-07-23
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Jo Adell, Jacob deGrom	F -49	F -63	▼ down
Team Knighton	Trea Turner	A+ +49	A+ +63	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine ⇄ Miz-waukee’s Best 2026-07-19
Ramirez Against the Machine	Sandy Alcantara	F -42	F -68	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best	Josh Jung	A+ +42	A+ +68	▲ up
I need Buck Showalter ⇄ Hit the Damn Ball You Bums 2026-06-19
I need Buck Showalter	Nasim Nunez	A+ +28	A +11	▼ down
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Justin Wrobleski	F -28	D -11	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ The Boys of Summer 2026-06-12
Miz-waukee’s Best	Chandler Simpson	A +10	A- +8
The Boys of Summer	$30 FAAB	D -10	C -8
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-05-01
Miz-waukee’s Best	Kenley Jansen	—	A- +6
Camp MVP	$30 FAAB	A- +3	C -6	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-04-22
Miz-waukee’s Best	Nathan Eovaldi, $70 FAAB	—	F -16
Ramirez Against the Machine	Jac Caglianone	A+ +60	A+ +16	▼ down

🔻 Sell-High — My Roster

Surface line outrunning the underlying skill — trade-value peaks. σ = his surface-stat z-score minus his Statcast-skill z-score, both against the league reference for his side — bigger σ = further ahead of the skill. Pair with Buy-Low Targets.

Verdict	Player	Own	Surface vs expected	Contact	2027 keeper
↓ SHOP	Yandy Diaz 1B · TB 0.68σ sell-high · 1B · BA 0.306 / xBA 0.287 · xwOBA 0.355 — test the market, don't force it	93%	BA 0.306 / xBA 0.287 +.019 wOBA 0.367 / xwOBA 0.355 +.012	HH 48.2% · Brl/PA 5.5%	7th · +1 rd vs mkt
↓ SHOP	Henry Bolte RF · Oak 0.61σ sell-high · RF · BA 0.274 / xBA 0.246 · xwOBA 0.312 — test the market, don't force it	5%	BA 0.274 / xBA 0.246 +.028 wOBA 0.333 / xwOBA 0.312 +.021	HH 47.9% · Brl/PA 4.4%	25th · +2 rds vs mkt
HOLD — KEEPER PRICE	Louis Varland RP · Tor 0.45σ sell-high · RP · ERA 1.16 vs xERA 2.19 — only move for keeper-grade return	87%	ERA 1.16 / xERA 2.19 -1.03	Brl 4.2% allowed	22nd · +16 rds vs mkt

👥 Your Roster

Your roster · news + buy/sell signals.

News (last 24h)

Player news · last 24h.

Blake Snell Snell throws 6 shutout innings and Tucker ends home run drought as Dodgers beat Nationals 5-3
Sat 09-05 05:04 AM
— Blake Snell tossed six scoreless innings, Kyle Tucker homered for the first time since Aug. 8 and the Los Angeles Dodgers held off the Washington Nationals 5-3 on Friday night in their series opener.
Miguel Vargas Blasts 30th homer in win
Sat 09-05 12:00 AM
Vargas went 1-for-4 with a solo home run and a strikeout during a 4-1 win over Minnesota on Friday.

Leverage Buys/Sells

Buy/sell windows · surface vs. underlying.

Hitters

Player	Pos	MLB	BA	xBA	wOBA	xwOBA	Brl%	Own%	Signal
James Wood	LF	Wsh	0.267	0.276	0.395	0.417	100.0	99.0	📈 BUY-LOW
Miguel Vargas	3B	ChW	0.251	0.269	0.368	0.387	91.0	95.1	📈 BUY-LOW
Kyle Schwarber	DH	Phi	0.238	0.236	0.370	0.360	98.0	99.5	📈 BUY-LOW
Bryce Eldridge	1B	SF	0.262	0.257	0.354	0.357	76.0	11.0	↑ mild buy
Zach Neto	SS	LAA	0.234	0.208	0.326	0.304	75.0	61.0	fair
Jac Caglianone	RF	KC	0.281	0.281	0.355	0.357	90.0	61.9	fair
Randy Arozarena	LF	Sea	0.271	0.259	0.367	0.349	54.0	94.0	fair
Cole Carrigg	CF	Col	0.265	0.255	0.344	0.323	—	11.9	fair
Ryan Jeffers	C	Min	0.272	0.253	0.376	0.354	73.0	41.2	fair
Henry Bolte	RF	Oak	0.274	0.246	0.333	0.312	47.0	4.6	↓ mild fade
Yandy Diaz	1B	TB	0.306	0.287	0.367	0.355	47.0	92.7	↓ mild fade
Kaelen Culpepper	SS	Min	0.301	0.255	0.357	0.316	—	6.6	fair
Royce Lewis	3B	Min	0.238	0.244	0.311	0.317	75.0	14.6	fair
Walker Jenkins	CF	Min	0.130	0.144	0.275	0.257	—	7.5	—
Jordan Lawlar	3B	Ari	0.269	0.248	0.346	0.308	—	2.8	fair
Ralphy Velazquez	1B	Cle	—	—	—	—	—	0.8	—
Pedro Ramirez	3B	ChC	0.277	0.258	0.331	0.299	—	3.6	fair

Pitchers

Pitcher	Pos	MLB	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K-BB%	xwOBA-a	Brl%-a	Own%	Signal
Andres Munoz	RP	Sea	51.3	4.21	1.17	3.20	29.0	0.278	9.0	79.7	↑ mild buy
Blake Snell	SP	LAD	32.0	1.97	1.09	2.11	22.0	0.226	1.4	90.1	↑ mild buy
Joe Ryan IL15	SP	Min	125.7	4.08	1.15	3.50	21.2	0.290	10.5	89.3	fair
Jacob Misiorowski	SP	Mil	155.0	1.97	0.79	2.08	31.8	0.224	3.8	99.5	fair
Sandy Alcantara	SP	Mia	195.7	3.54	1.19	3.65	11.3	0.296	5.1	89.5	fair
Kyle Harrison	SP	Mil	107.0	3.45	1.20	3.52	22.6	0.291	7.7	68.5	fair
Dylan Cease	SP	Tor	156.3	2.25	1.04	2.73	25.1	0.257	5.1	99.2	fair
Eury Perez	SP	Mia	135.3	3.72	1.18	4.04	15.5	0.310	10.2	75.0	fair
Louis Varland	RP	Tor	69.7	1.16	0.99	2.19	24.6	0.230	4.2	86.7	↓ mild fade

📰 MLB News — Top Fantasy Stories

🔒 Keepers — 2027 Slate

Peter's model (additive): rounds-saved (cost arbitrage spine) + current skill + career-grade pedigree + sample stability + Statcast over/under-performance trend, with age-decline (33+), closer/RP, and top-30 talent adjustments. Heavy on bargain-hunting.
Claude's model (multiplicative dynasty index): EFV(2027) = (3 + skill + upside) × age_mult × pos_mult; score = EFV − cost_replacement − mookie-lock. Compounds age curve and position scarcity.
Sorted by consensus rank (average of both models). MLB-inactive players surfaced in 🚑 Return Watch below.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict	Notes
1.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	21st	#1 (+24.4)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51	UFDA-G FV 55
2.0	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	22nd	#2 (+21.4)	#2 (+27.1)	S · $27
3.5	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	25th	#3 (+19.7)	#4 (+15.8)	A · $16	UFDA
4.5	Bryce Eldridge	1B · 20yo	25th	#4 (+16.2)	#5 (+14.4)	A · $14	UFDA FV 55
4.5	Zach Neto	SS · 25yo	10th	#6 (+13.7)	#3 (+16.1)	A · $16
5.5	Henry Bolte	RF · 21yo	25th	#5 (+14.8)	#6 (+12.0)	A · $12	UFDA FV 40
7.0	Dylan Cease	SP · 30yo	4th	#7 (+11.9)	#7 (+11.7)	A · $12
8.5	Jac Caglianone	RF · 22yo	21st	#8 (+10.2)	— (+6.8)	B · $7	UFDA-G FV 55
8.5	Eury Perez	SP · 23yo	20th	— (+9.5)	#8 (+7.3)	B · $7	UFDA-G

NEW UFDA cap: Peter 3/3 · Claude 3/3 · BOTH = top 8 in both models. Peter only = his model values cost surplus more; Claude only = mine values projection / position scarcity more.

🚑 Return watch — would be keeper-eligible if they get MLB action this year. Rank shown is hypothetical (where they'd slot if eligible).

Player	Pos · Age	Cost	Peter (if elig.)	Claude (if elig.)
Ralphy Velazquez	1B · 19yo	25th	#18 (-2.0)	#13 (+1.4)

Updated Sat Sep 5 · 12:33 PM ET

🌍 League-Wide Top Keepers

Top 10 keepers · all 12 teams · both models. Yours in green.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	Team	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict
2.5	Jesus Luzardo	SP · 28yo	KNIG	21st	#1 (+27.9)	#4 (+33.4)	S · $33
2.5	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	MIZ	21st	#4 (+24.4)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51
3.0	Bryan Baker	RP · 31yo	DORN	25th	#3 (+25.0)	#3 (+38.7)	S · $39
4.5	Jordan Walker	RF · 24yo	GARR	25th	#2 (+25.4)	#7 (+29.9)	S · $30
5.0	Andy Pages	CF · 25yo	BLOB	20th	#5 (+24.1)	#5 (+32.7)	S · $33
6.0	Cam Schlittler	SP · 24yo	KRTZ	19th	#10 (+19.5)	#2 (+40.8)	S · $41
7.0	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	MIZ	22nd	#6 (+21.4)	#8 (+27.1)	S · $27
8.5	Nolan McLean	SP · 23yo	DORN	20th	#8 (+20.4)	#9 (+24.0)	S · $24
8.5	Riley O'Brien	RP · 31yo	THAR	17th	— (+13.7)	#6 (+30.6)	S · $31
9.0	Jose Soriano	SP · 27yo	BLOB	25th	#7 (+21.3)	— (+18.5)	S · $18
10.0	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	MIZ	25th	#9 (+19.7)	— (+15.8)	A · $16
10.5	Gavin Williams	SP · 26yo	THAR	11th	— (+12.0)	#10 (+23.6)	S · $24

Updated Sat Sep 5 · 12:33 PM ET

🏚️ Keeper Cupboards

Every team's six best keepers · shade = dual-model consensus value. Cupboard score weights the top four heavily (the slots that get kept), keepers 5–8 taper. 100 = league's best cupboard.

Team	K1	K2	K3	K4	K5	K6	Cupboard
1MIZ	MisiorowskiR21	VarlandR22	VargasR25	EldridgeR25	NetoR10	BolteR25	100
2DORN	BakerR25	McLeanR20	RiceR20	BazzanaR25	PerdomoR21	AnthonyR18	83
3BLOB	PagesR20	SorianoR25	LopezR20	ScottR25	TaylorR25	LileR15	81
4KRTZ	SchlittlerR19	BengeR25	StewartR10	McGonigleR17	BurkeR25	SanojaR25	69
5THAR	O'BrienR17	MarshR25	RasmussenR8	WilliamsR11	Jr.R16	KeaschallR21	68
6KNIG	LuzardoR21	MartinezR25	JensenR20	AbreuR15	deGromR13	ChapmanR11	66
7FRAN	LatzR25	McCarthyR25	CavalliR21	AntonacciR25	BurnsR5	BradishR21	61
8GARR	WalkerR25	MessickR18	DinglerR22	GrayR7	CanzoneR25	HancockR25	53
9GoOs	GoodmanR21	GriffinR25	BradleyR25	BurlesonR9	GomezR25	MeidrothR25	52
10RAGE	EwingR25	CamineroR5	HerreraR20	BasalloR19	JonesR25	ImanagaR9	49
11PEYT ▼ thin	SanchezR9	HendersonR25	WooR8	WetherholtR13	MayoR17	CruzR1	45
12FRST ▼ thin	TolleR25	WheelerR8	RouppR25	MuncyR18	SkubalR1	RumfieldR25	37

The bottom two rows are your trade marks — thin cupboards pay up for keepable pieces.

data: snap 5h · BP 11d · PL 11d · HL 8d · PSS 8h · BR 0h · FG 2h · proj 2h · closer 0h · oyster 3h · AAA-sc 14h · cookie ok