Miz-waukee’s Best — The Brandon League

Last updated Sunday, August 30 · 04:21 AM ET

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Any player in the league universe · tap a result for the card.

☕ Morning Briefing

🏆 MIZ sits at 106.0 roto points, a comfortable 22.5 pts clear of second place — but keep an eye on SB, where DORN is just 4 steals back, and on AVG, where you trail GoOs by a razor-thin .000 for a free roto point.

⚾ Strong day from your guys: Blake Snell carved through the Tigers' lineup — 5 IP, 10 K, 1 ER — while Bryce Eldridge went 4-for-7 with 4 RBI in a doubleheader against the D-backs, and Zach Neto added a home run vs. the Phillies; Louis Varland also locked down a clean save against the Mariners (1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 K).

🔭 Both stash-board arms delivered last night: Jonah Tong (RI 88) was the headliner with 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K at AAA, while Ryan Sloan (RI 90, MLB Pipeline #8) went 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K, W at AA — two free agents sitting on your board giving you strong optionality.

📰 Around the league, Max Fried (owned by FRST) and Juan Soto (owned by GARR) both returned from the IL, restoring two elite bats/arms to rival rosters — relevant context for your standings race. Of the day's call-ups, Wikelman González, Brycen Mautz, Raymond Burgos, Brendan Beck, Matt Wilkinson, and Mitch Bratt all reached the majors and are currently available, though none project as immediate impact pieces. On the contact-heat front, early signals on Colton Cowser (90/99 xwOBAcon, 11 BBE) and Drew Cavanaugh (90/99, 0.700 xwOBAcon, 8 BBE) are worth monitoring, though sample sizes are small.

ELIGIBILITYK. Schwarber 1B 6/10P. Ramirez 1B 4/10

Your standing

1stof 12

106.0 roto pts +22.5 clear of 2nd

no change vs last update

Top Gaps

SB (7.0) W (8.0)

categories below mid-pack

🎯 Category Pressure

Category ranks vs. the league.

Rank →

Δ to #1

914

990

🥇

262

289

🥇

RBI

848

877

🥇

128

132

138

193

+61

AVG

.254

.256

.257

.258

+0.002

1143

1180

1288

+108

+10

+11

ERA

3.41

3.19

🥇

WHIP

1.17

1.11

🥇

📅 Yesterday's MIZ Box Scores (2026-08-29)

Loading box scores…

🏥 IL Rehab Tracker

IL players · rehab game logs.

On the IL, no rehab games yet: James Wood (IL10), Joe Ryan (IL15), Spencer Schwellenbach (IL60 · watch).

📊 League Activity (last 24h)

All adds, drops, and trades across the 12 teams.

Team	Move
Camp MVP	+ Josue De Paula
Camp MVP	+ Franklin Arias
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	+ Martin Perez \| − Andrew Painter
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	+ Cal Quantrill \| − David Peterson
Camp MVP	− Andres Gimenez
Camp MVP	− Maikel Garcia

🏆 League Standings

Current roto points · 10,000-sim projected finish. FAAB = acquisition budget remaining.

100.0% to win the league · proj finish 1.0 · 102.8 roto pts

#	Team	Pts	FAAB	Win%	Proj Pts	Range	Proj Rk
1	MIZ Miz-waukee’s Best	106.0	$0	100.0%	102.8	99–106	1.0
2	FRAN Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	83.5	$74	0.0%	87.2	82–93	2.2
3	PEYT Phil Swift's Flex Seal	78.5	$34	0.0%	80.3	74–87	3.3
4	KRTZ Photogenic Nick Kurtz	77.5	$25	0.0%	79.6	73–86	3.5
5	GoOs I need Buck Showalter	73.0	$170	0.0%	70.8	65–76	5.2
6	BLOB Camp MVP	68.5	$168	0.0%	69.2	65–73	5.6
7	THAR Phil Mickeltits	62.5	$176	0.0%	59.9	54–65	7.1
8	KNIG Team Knighton	56.0	$137	0.0%	55.7	50–61	7.9
9	GARR The Boys of Summer	47.0	$155	0.0%	50.2	45–56	9.0
10	DORN Dorn and Associates LLC	44.5	$89	0.0%	44.9	40–50	10.1
11	RAGE Ramirez Against the Machine	44.0	$163	0.0%	36.4	33–40	11.9
12	FRST Worst2First	39.0	$154	0.0%	42.9	39–48	10.6

10,000 sims · fixed seed · noise CV talent 0.12 / idio 0.06 / team-cat 0.08 · assumes ATC rest-of-season rates

Your categories · projected roto points

R 12.0HR 12.0RBI 11.8SB 7.2AVG 9.2W 6.7SV 9.0K 10.9ERA 12.0WHIP 12.0

Winnable — push here: SB, AVG, W, SV.

🚨 Today's Streaming Board

152 of 200 GS · should be 170 · 18 behindBehind pace — stream aggressively

048 left · ~12.0/wk to cap · proj 179200

⏳ BP's post is late — Verdict pill is running on our score + Pitcher List for now (BP joins the top-2 once it posts).

Top FA streamers today

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Dustin May	vs TEX	STARTrust	—	4.1	#9	Exited after comebacker hit; fresh if soreness resolved.
Tyler Mahle	vs COL	DART	—	4.0	#10	Tough Coors matchup for a pitcher on a hot streak.
Zac Thornton	vs HOU	DART	—	4.6	#13	Elite cutter/four-seamer location to RHB; favorable lineup split expected.
Anthony Kay	@ MIN	DART	—	—	#14	Fringe streamer; edge command works but ceiling capped.
Zebby Matthews	vs CWS	SIT	—	4.8	#16	Best slider showing last outing; durability of that form uncertain.
Janson Junk	@ WSH	SIT	—	4.8	#19	Short hook, strikeouts absent; ceiling not worth the risk.
Seth Lugo	@ CLE	SIT	—	3.6	#17	Long leash but LHB-heavy matchup is a concern.
Matthew Liberatore	vs PIT	SIT	—	4.2	#23	High-K upside undercut by frequent blowup outings.
Yusei Kikuchi	vs PHI	SIT	—	3.5	#21	Wildly inconsistent; one start removed from strong outing.
Mason Adams	@ ATL	SIT	—	4.3	#28	Second start; Coors deadzone fastballs primed to get pummeled.

Openers filtered: Jordan Hicks

Your staff: 3.19 ERA / 1.11 WHIP · GS 152/200 — Behind pace — stream aggressively. Verdict = the best 2 of BP · our score · Pitcher List, averaged (low outlier dropped); before BP posts it's our score + PL. ⚠ = our matchup score dissented — eyeball that one. Tap a MIZ score for the reasoning.

Tomorrow · 1 of yours + top 4 FA · Mon 8/31 · BP not out yet, so pill = our score + Pitcher List

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Kyle Harrison	@ CHC	DART	—	4.9	—	tough CHC lineup, strong skills
Ryan Gusto	@ WSH	SIT	—	3.9	—	tough WSH lineup, hot recent form
Elmer Rodríguez	@ LAA	SIT	—	3.8	—	soft LAA lineup, weak skills
Brady Singer	vs SD	SIT	—	3.2	—	average SD lineup, hitter park, weak skills
Robert Stock	@ TB	SIT	—	1.7	—	tough TB lineup, shaky recent form, short leash

📼 Streamer Report Card

Does the Streaming Board actually work? Every pick it showed, frozen at pick time and graded off the real box score. Two scoreboards below: first our own calls — the Verdict ladder and MIZ (our matchup score, 0–10) — then the outside lists behind them, BP (RelieverRecon's daily BP Streamers post) and PL (Pitcher List's tier ranking). Grades are recomputed from raw lines on every build — the rubric can change, the history follows.

Last 30d · 349 starts graded over 29 days · GOOD+ 51% · BLOWUP 16% · agg ERA 4.23 · WHIP 1.32 · 4.4 K/start · 373 picks logged, 14 never started, 10 awaiting a box score — not graded

Grade mix · all 349 graded starts

GEM 68 GOOD 109 OK 115 BLOWUP 57

GEM6+ IP, ≤1 ER · or 6+ IP, 8+ K, ≤2 ERGOODquality start (6+ IP, ≤3 ER) · or 5+ IP, ≤2 EROKheld the line without earning GOODBLOWUP5+ ER · or under 4 IP with 4+ ERGOOD+ = GEM + GOOD. A pick whose starter never took the ball grades to nothing and leaves every rate below.

Cohort	n	GOOD+	BLOWUP	ERA
Q1 — Do our own calls work? · Verdict ladder + MIZ bands · live board rows only, nothing backfilled
Verdict · AUTO START	25	72%	12%	3.38
Verdict · START	43	63%	7%	3.41
Verdict · DART	97	45%	15%	4.63
Verdict · SIT	184	48%	20%	4.35
MIZ ≥ 5.0	123	61%	14%	3.67
MIZ 3.5–4.9	123	49%	15%	4.50
MIZ < 3.5	86	41%	21%	4.80
All live board picks	349	51%	16%	4.23
Q1 read — the ladder has not separated: GOOD+ runs 72% · 63% · 45% · 48% down the rungs, and MIZ sorts: GOOD+ falls 61% · 49% · 41% from the top band down.
Q2 — Which outside list earns the weight? · BP and PL graded on their own published lists · mostly rebuilt from git
PL · Auto Start	23	74%	9%	3.25
PL · Probably Start	38	58%	16%	4.14
PL · Questionable Start	93	52%	14%	4.22
PL · Do Not Start	171	49%	20%	4.35
BP · Auto	11	36%	9%	4.74
BP · Likely	43	47%	19%	4.43
All graded picks	349	51%	16%	4.23
Q2 read — against the 51% all-picks baseline, PL's top tiers clear it (74% · 58%) and BP's top tiers are too thin to call (36% · 47% on n=11 · n=43).

Rows are overlapping lenses on the same picks, not a partition — one start can be a PL Auto Start and a Verdict SIT at once, so they never sum to the headline; each group is read against its own baseline row.

⚠ Dissent check — the override is ahead so far — 62% GOOD+ on n=8. Splits are picks the board started over our MIZ sit-call (vs 51% for all live picks).

Calibration — do our numbers mean anything? · full season, 2026-06-29→2026-08-29 · 877 graded picks · MIZ on 340, BP on 230, Verdict on 358

The ladder above asks whether the tiers sort. This asks the harder question: is the number a probability — when the board says 7, do 70% of those starts come back GOOD+? Bins are equal-count and merge until every one clears n=15; the walk-forward rows are scored against a model that only ever saw earlier days.

Score bin	n	mean	GOOD+	95% CI
MIZ score → P(GOOD+) · our matchup score, 0–10 · live rows only · n=340
MIZ 0.5–3.3	78	2.6	42%	32%–53%
MIZ 3.4–3.9	58	3.7	47%	34%–59%
MIZ 4.0–4.8	69	4.4	51%	39%–62%
MIZ 4.9–5.6	70	5.2	53%	41%–64%
MIZ 5.7–8.9	65	6.5	66%	54%–76%
All MIZ-scored picks	340	—	51%	—
BP score → P(GOOD+) · RelieverRecon's published rating · includes git-backfilled rows · n=230
BP 4.6–6.6	48	6.1	35%	23%–50%
BP 6.7–7.3	44	7.0	52%	38%–66%
BP 7.4–7.7	47	7.5	45%	31%–59%
BP 7.8–8.4	47	8.1	47%	33%–61%
BP 8.5–10.0	44	9.1	43%	30%–58%
All BP-scored picks	230	—	44%	—
Verdict tier → P(GOOD+) · the consensus call itself · live rows only
AUTO START	27	—	70%	52%–84%
START	45	—	60%	45%–73%
DART	100	—	47%	38%–57%
SIT	186	—	48%	41%–55%

Out-of-sample	n	value	vs
Walk-forward probability · logistic on MIZ, refit daily on earlier days only · from 2026-08-05 · 24 days
Brier — our probability	276	0.247	lower is better
Brier — flat base rate to date	276	0.256	we win by 0.008
Brier — verdict-tier history	276	0.255	we win by 0.008
Log loss — our probability	276	0.687	lower is better
ECE — our probability	276	0.055	5 equal-count bins
ECE bins · predicted p vs what actually happened
said 32%–48%	55	42%	off by 2%
said 48%–52%	55	44%	off by 6%
said 52%–57%	56	45%	off by 10%
said 57%–60%	55	53%	off by 6%
said 61%–74%	55	62%	off by 3%
Verdict — usable with caveats: ECE 0.055 over n=276 out-of-sample picks (≤0.03 well calibrated · ≤0.07 usable with caveats); edges the flat base rate on Brier (0.247 vs 0.256, a thin margin; log-loss ~coin-flip).

🔥 Today's Hitter Streamers

Top 10 FA bats for today's slate · score = split vs SP hand (35%) + SP softness (35%) + bat quality (15%) + trailing 15 days (10%) + park (5%) · facing an elite arm fades the score hard (feast on weak pitchers).

#	Hitter	Matchup	Why	Legs	Score
1	AUTO STARTEsmerlyn ValdezRF · 17% own	@ STL · Liberatore LHP	szn .336 xwOBAL15: 0.688 OPS (42 PA)L14 contact +5.7 (.496 xwOBAcon, 15 BBE)usually bats 2nd (×1.10)fills OF needbeats 5 of 6 eligible startersLiberatore .340 allowed · soft SP1.057 OPS vs LHP (80 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	87
2	STARTMickey GasperC · 7% own	@ NYY · Warren RHP	szn .359 xwOBAL15: 1.710 OPS (37 PA)L14 contact +6.0 (.618 xwOBAcon, 23 BBE)usually bats 5thbeats 1 of 2 eligible startersWarren .330 allowed · soft SP0.946 OPS vs RHP (113 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	86
3	STARTRafael Flores Jr.1B · 4% own	@ STL · Liberatore LHP	szn .331 xwOBAL15: 0.681 OPS (46 PA)L14 contact +2.2 (.418 xwOBAcon, 21 BBE)usually bats 5thbeats 1 of 3 eligible startersLiberatore .340 allowed · soft SP0.891 OPS vs LHP (41 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	69
4	STARTDonovan Walton2B · 0% own	vs BAL · Bassitt RHP	szn .323 xwOBAL15: 0.914 OPS (38 PA)L14 contact -1.4 (.339 xwOBAcon, 24 BBE)usually bats 6th (×0.98)beats 3 of 6 eligible startersBassitt .340 allowed · soft SP0.85 OPS vs RHP (149 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	66
5	DEPTHJared Young1B · 1% own	vs HOU · Pecko RHP	szn .311 xwOBAL15: 0.787 OPS (47 PA)L14 contact -5.0 (.250 xwOBAcon, 33 BBE)usually bats 5thbeats 0 of 2 eligible startersPecko .428 allowed · soft SP0.823 OPS vs RHP (212 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	63
6	AUTO STARTTroy JohnstonRF · 4% own	@ ATL · Mahle RHP	szn .330 xwOBAL15: 1.029 OPS (28 PA)L14 contact +1.7 (.408 xwOBAcon, 19 BBE)usually bats 6th (×0.98)fills OF needbeats 4 of 7 eligible startersMahle .319 allowed · avg SP0.816 OPS vs RHP (266 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	61
7	AUTO STARTEdmundo Sosa2B · 0% own	@ LAA · Kikuchi LHP	szn .336 xwOBAusually bats 8th (×0.93)fills OF needbeats 7 of 11 eligible startersKikuchi .355 allowed · soft SP0.763 OPS vs LHP (101 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	60
8	AUTO STARTLawrence ButlerRF · 17% own	vs BAL · Bassitt RHP	szn .316 xwOBAL15: 1.042 OPS (60 PA)L14 contact +1.9 (.413 xwOBAcon, 30 BBE)usually bats 4th (×1.05)fills OF needbeats 4 of 6 eligible startersBassitt .340 allowed · soft SP0.701 OPS vs RHP (271 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	60
9	DEPTHNathaniel Lowe1B · 2% own	vs KC · Lugo RHP	szn .335 xwOBAL15: 0.484 OPS (50 PA)L14 contact -3.2 (.300 xwOBAcon, 32 BBE)usually bats 5thbeats 0 of 2 eligible startersLugo .344 allowed · soft SP0.847 OPS vs RHP (286 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	59
10	AUTO STARTBlaze Alexander3B · 4% own	@ ATH · Springs LHP	szn .361 xwOBAusually bats 1st (×1.12)fills OF needbeats 7 of 11 eligible startersSprings .340 allowed · soft SP0.664 OPS vs LHP (81 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	58

Tiers vs YOUR lineup tonight — median starter 49, worst Ryan Jeffers (12). AUTO START = beats the median eligible starter.

TBD starter = neutral SP + split legs until the probable posts (refresh upgrades it). Splits need 30+ AB vs that hand. IL bats are excluded; bats who rarely start against tonight's hand are dropped. Doubleheaders: legs average the ends he plays, and everyday bats get up to a ×1.50 volume boost. Lineup slot scales the score by expected PAs from the bat's usual spot (leadoff ×1.12 … 9-hole ×0.90, modal over the last ~10 played days) — his typical order, not today's card, since that posts after waivers run.

🎯 FA Hitters — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Ryan Jeffers

1Mickey GasperC · Bos · 7.0%HEATER

89/99 heat on 23 BBE is trusted sample; .556/.417 production confirms elite xwOBAcon is translating now

Heat 89 · 23 BBE · ATC 10 PA · 0 HR · 0 SB · 0.225 · L7 0.556 · 2 HR · sim +0.0 pts

2Lars Nootbaar

LF · Ari · 2.5% · HEATER

86/99 heat on 24 BBE trusted sample; .267 L7 with HR/RBI confirms contact quality, AVG helps rank-3 hold

Heat 86 · 24 BBE · ATC 75 PA · 2 HR · 1 SB · 0.245 · L7 0.267 · 1 HR · sim +0.0 pts

3Drew Gilbert

RF · SF · 0.7% · HEATER

78/99 heat on 23 BBE with .333 BA, 1 HR, 5 RBI L7; production corroborates contact quality signal

Heat 78 · 23 BBE · ATC 76 PA · 2 HR · 1 SB · 0.228 · L7 0.333 · 1 HR · sim +0.0 pts

4Ryan Vilade

RF · TB · 0.2% · UPSIDE

87/99 elite heat, 97.6 EV, .682 xwOBAcon on 16 BBE crosses threshold; .409 L14 BA confirms it

Heat 87 · 16 BBE · ATC 45 PA · 1 HR · 1 SB · 0.229 · L7 0.25 · 0 HR · sim +0.0 pts

5Colt Keith

1B · Det · 5.2% · HEATER

85/99 heat on 18 BBE trusted; 0.516 xwOBAcon/94.2 EV; cold L7 is noise against legit contact quality

Heat 85 · 18 BBE · ATC 102 PA · 3 HR · 1 SB · 0.259 · L7 0.0 · 0 HR · sim -0.0 pts

Passed on: Colton Cowser flare is compelling but 11 BBE is sub-threshold and ATC projects only .223 AVG which risks MIZ's thin third-place AVG margin.

💪 Hitter List Rankings

PL Top 150 hitters · your bats + top FAs.

On Hitter List · 17 yours · 9 FAs

Rank	Hitter	MLB	Pos	Chg	AVG	xwOBA	HR	SB	RoS	Chu’s Take
16	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	DH	+3	.244	.368	40	3	127
18	Randy Arozarena	SEA	OF	-	.271	.349	20	20	123
21	Miguel Vargas	CHW	1B/3B	+19	.249	.391	29	13	113	Miguel Vargas has returned to the levels we saw early this summer and that really revs my engine. He’s one of those players who has shown…
36	Yandy Díaz	TB	1B	+3	.304	.355	20	3	123
46	Zach Neto	LAA	SS	+11	.236	.306	23	18	109	Zach Neto has been a monster over the last nine games, with 17 hits, 18 combined runs and RBI (a seven RBI night helps), and seven extra-…
59	Jac Caglianone	KC	1B/OF	+13	.285	.363	23	6	107	Jac Caglianone still hits a lot of grounders, but not quite as many as before (the rolling 15-game rate is a hair below 50%) and the stri…
72	Ty France	SD	1B	+12	.287	.331	19	1	106
77	Royce Lewis	MIN	1B/2B/3B	-15	.235	.315	13	14	103	Royce Lewis is streaky. We just gotta deal with that.
85	Cole Carrigg	COL	SS/OF	-22	.263	.321	6	8	68	The strikeouts have creeped up on Cole Carrigg , up to 32% over his last 11 games (which is, conveniently, exactly 50 plate appearances).…
109	Mickey Gasper	BOS	C	+UR	.278	.359	5	0	94	Mickey Gasper — Fantastic mustache, first of all. Second of all, the batted ball data suggests what’s happening of late is very real, tho…
115	Kaelen Culpepper	MIN	SS	+UR	.312	.332	3	0	91	Kaelen Culpepper — Culpepper puts a lot of balls in play and it’s working out so far. The BABIP Gods can be cruel, though. The 55 point g…
116	Tristan Peters	CHW	OF	+UR	.279	.314	12	7	87	Tristan Peters — Five straight games with a homer is nuts, and it comes out of basically nowhere. His scouting reports and track record a…
119	Rafael Flores Jr.	PIT	C/1B	+UR	.234	.331	7	0	83
135	Henry Bolte	ATH	OF	+UR	.271	.304	6	14	91	Henry Bolte is leading off again and should get some games in Sacramento soon, if you need a streamer.
140	Lawrence Butler	ATH	OF	+UR	.228	.316	12	10	89
145	Tyler Stephenson	CIN	C	-33	.248	.338	13	0	98
146	Ryan Jeffers	MIN	C	-29	.269	.351	10	1	118
148	Andruw Monasterio	BOS	2B/SS	-26	.249	.301	6	4	92
149	Dylan Crews	WSH	OF	-35	.223	.318	10	8	87
150	Luis Rengifo	SD	2B/3B/OF	-24	.240	.303	4	6	87
TS	Bryce Eldridge	SF	1B	—	.261	.354	15	1	99	Bryce Eldridge (1B, SFG) — Power prospects can often take a while to really shine.
TS	Jordan Lawlar	Ari	3B/OF	—	.271	.325	3	4	89	Jordan Lawlar (3B/OF, ARI) — I do not love that he’s sat against two of the three righties the D-Backs have faced, nor the strikeouts. He…
TS	Pedro Ramirez	ChC	2B/3B	—	.292	.305	4	7	91	Pedro Ramirez (2B/3B, CHC) — Hitting well when he plays, which is not very often.
TS	Walker Jenkins	Min	OF	—	.333	.486	0	1	101	Walker Jenkins (OF, MIN) — Jenkins will get the call today after a white-hot month in the triple-A. He’s worth a scoop in most leagues, E…
UR	James Wood	Wsh	OF	—	.265	.419	30	17	129	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Ralphy Velazquez	Cle	1B	—	—	—	—	—	83	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.

🔥 Heat Board

Hottest ACTIVE free-agent bats by contact quality, 8/16–8/29 · Heat = percentile vs all MLB bats over the same window (xwOBAcon 30 · EV 20 · Brl 20 · HH 15 · K 10 · BB 5) · min 15 BBE to qualify (smaller samples live in the HM rail) · IL excluded.

Mickey Gasper

C · Bos · 7.0% own · xwOBAcon .618 · EV 90.8 · Brl 26.1% · 23 BBE

▲ .139 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.278	5	19	17	0
L14	.417	5	12	6	0

Ryan Vilade

RF · TB · 0.2% own · xwOBAcon .682 · EV 97.6 · Brl 18.8% · 16 BBE

▲ .148 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.261	11	37	25	3
L14	.409	2	2	5	0

Lars Nootbaar

LF · Ari · 2.5% own · xwOBAcon .471 · EV 93.0 · Brl 16.7% · 24 BBE

▲ .047 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.233	6	27	29	2
L14	.280	2	5	4	0

Colt Keith

1B · Det · 5.2% own · xwOBAcon .516 · EV 94.2 · Brl 11.1% · 18 BBE

▼ .012 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.262	9	32	46	5
L14	.250	1	1	4	0

Esmerlyn Valdez

RF · Pit · 16.7% own · xwOBAcon .496 · EV 95.2 · Brl 20.0% · 15 BBE

▼ .062 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.244	15	42	36	0
L14	.182	1	1	5	0

Hao-Yu Lee

3B · Det · 1.4% own · xwOBAcon .423 · EV 94.7 · Brl 11.1% · 27 BBE

▲ .013 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.268	7	33	26	2
L14	.281	1	5	6	0

Luis Torrens

C · NYM · 0.7% own · xwOBAcon .517 · EV 90.8 · Brl 20.0% · 15 BBE

▲ .059 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.241	8	33	31	1
L14	.300	3	5	3	0

Brett Baty

3B · NYM · 2.6% own · xwOBAcon .457 · EV 94.0 · Brl 12.5% · 16 BBE

▲ .095 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.223	8	40	45	5
L14	.318	0	2	2	0

Drew Gilbert

RF · SF · 0.7% own · xwOBAcon .532 · EV 91.4 · Brl 17.4% · 23 BBE

▼ .004 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.239	8	36	43	1
L14	.235	2	8	6	0

Andres Chaparro

1B · Wsh · 0.6% own · xwOBAcon .395 · EV 90.3 · Brl 20.0% · 25 BBE

▲ .054 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.246	9	33	29	0
L14	.300	2	4	6	0

Honorable mention · hottest L7 (8/23–8/29), not yet on the board · tiny samples — peek, don't trust

Colton Cowser

CF · Bal

.537 xwOBAcon

11 BBE · .546 L7

Drew Cavanaugh

C · SF

.700 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .308 L7

Brady House

3B · Wsh

.503 xwOBAcon

12 BBE · .200 L7

Ezequiel Tovar

SS · Col

.584 xwOBAcon

12 BBE · .375 L7

James McCann

C · Ari

.467 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .300 L7

Tommy White

3B · Oak

.522 xwOBAcon

18 BBE · .300 L7

🎯 FA Pitchers — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Kyle Harrison

1Andrew KittredgeRP · Bal · 1.8%BEST VALUE

Highest roto sim (+1.3), confirmed closer role, clean 1.21 WHIP protects ratios.

Supp 41 · 12 BBE · ATC 10.0 IP · 1 W · 10 K · 3.87 · 1.21 · 2 SV · Closer · sim +1.3 pts

2Juan Morillo

RP · Ari · 2.7% · CATEGORY FIT

Confirmed closer role, +1.2 sim, SV rank 3rd needs protection with 8-save gap above.

Supp 78 · 10 BBE · ATC 10.0 IP · 1 W · 10 K · 3.83 · 1.35 · 1 SV · Closer · sim +1.2 pts

3AJ Smith-Shawver

SP · Atl · 1.9% · UPSIDE

Best roto sim among SPs (+0.8), elite suppression 80th percentile on trusted 32 BBE.

Supp 80 · 32 BBE · ATC 13.0 IP · 1 W · 13 K · 4.14 · 1.32 · sim +0.8 pts

4Grayson Rodriguez

SP · LAA · 2.8% · HEATER

87th-percentile suppression, 37 BBE trusted, +0.7 sim; cap pace demands aggressive streaming.

Supp 87 · 37 BBE · ATC 24.0 IP · 2 W · 24 K · 4.30 · 1.31 · sim +0.7 pts

5Hayden Wesneski

SP · Hou · 6.3% · UPSIDE

+0.7 sim leads SP pack tied with Rodriguez; 73rd suppression but only 23 BBE — corroborate quickly.

Supp 73 · 23 BBE · ATC 25.0 IP · 2 W · 23 K · 4.40 · 1.26 · sim +0.7 pts

Passed on: Christian Scott has elite K-rate and strong ratios but suppression is middling (56th pct) and sim is flat (+0.4), making him redundant behind better-sim SP options.

⚾ Pitcher List Rankings

PL Top 100 SP · your arms + top FAs.

On Pitcher List · 6 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Pitcher	MLB	Chg	ERA	xERA	K/9	RoS	Pollack’s Take
1	Jacob Misiorowski	MIL	-	1.73	2.00	13.2	3.32	Like a base set Charizard, Misiorowski’s not gonna stop being dope.
9	Blake Snell	LAD	+7	2.42	2.29	12.5	3.42	#HotSnellSummer is in full swing.
10	Dylan Cease	TOR	-1	2.33	2.65	13.0	3.45	Like a perfect burger without the condiments to hit all your macros, Cease gives you everything except for a stable WHIP due to his infla…
20	Kyle Harrison	MIL	+8	2.79	3.24	11.1	4.12	With a dominant outing, he muted our concerns, but Harrison’s still displaying decreased velocity and not commanding as well as he did in…
22	Eury Pérez	MIA	-4	3.44	3.72	9.8	3.87	Pérez has the stuff to be an ace, but there’s polishing to do in the command and game plan departments to unlock his full potential.
30	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	-4	3.46	3.64	6.6	4.19	Baseball’s premier innings eater hasn’t ruined his appetite.
38	Jacob Lopez	ATH	+6	4.82	3.41	8.7	4.63	It’s the 2025 hot streak all over again. Enjoy the ride, ya’ll!
39	Dustin May	MIL	-	4.56	4.20	8.5	4.09	May got Singled Out in a disastrous performance, but his stuff is still dope, and his new situation is ideal. Higher win chance, great de…
40	Walbert Ureña	LAA	-	2.94	3.44	8.7	4.54	Armed with upper-90s heaters and one of the best changeups in baseball, Ureña has hit few speed bumps. If that developing sweeper becomes…
43	Andrew Painter	PHI	+UR	5.95	4.59	7.8	4.78	From off The List to inside the Top 50, Painter has stolen our hearts with an improved heater (97+ mph with 17-18″ iVB) and emphasis on r…
45	Peter Lambert	HOU	-4	3.66	3.54	8.8	4.58	Lambert’s stumble last time was a product of being Singled Out . He’s been reliable all year, but we should be recognizing that Holly is …
46	Jared Jones	PIT	-8	4.83	3.80	10.3	3.99	The stuff is top-tier, but he’s still shaking off the Tommy John surgery rust with his command and the tight leash the Pirates have on hi…
54	Joey Cantillo	CLE	-8	3.70	3.97	9.6	4.05	Efficiency is a problem, but Cantillo is doing everything we want. More curveballs, faster fastballs, and supportive cutters. Throw more …
56	Shane Bieber	TOR	+14	4.37	5.94	7.1	4.19	Bieber is back in business. His heater looked awesome in The Trop, and his offspeed pitches are being the CSW monsters they need to be to…
57	Tyler Mahle	ATL	-	4.41	4.28	8.5	4.10	Mahle’s command and velocity have been stellar since returning from the IL in late June. He’s got an even better situation pitching in At…
58	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	-	3.51	3.75	6.2	4.60	Despite what the line suggests, Pfaadt’s last start wasn’t an end to his Vargas Rule . It was a textbook Careful, Icarus with a three-run…

🔒 Closer Chart

Save targets · roles + regression flags.

🚨 Closer Tier Changes (vs. yesterday)

COLOR SHIFT Chicago White Sox: Grant Taylor → Grant Taylor (magenta → blue) rostered
COLOR SHIFT Los Angeles Dodgers: Tanner Scott → Tanner Scott (magenta → ) rostered
COLOR SHIFT New York Mets: Kodai Senga → Kodai Senga ( → magenta) rostered

BLUEEntrenched closer (highest leverage)GREENNext man up / committee pieceYELLOWSetup, 8th-inning leverageORANGESpeculative / lower priorityMAGENTAHigh-upside future / multi-inning

	Pitcher	Tm	Role	SV	SVHD	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K/9	Rtg / Own
Yours on the chart
—	Andrés Muñoz	Seattle Mariners	CL	24	24	48.3	4.28	1.22	3.31	14.3	5.0 · —
—	Louis Varland	Toronto Blue Jays	CL	31	36	68.7	1.18	0.98	2.20 ↑	11.0	5.0 · —
—	Justin Martinez	Arizona Diamondbacks	FU	0	0	3.7	0.00	1.09	3.54 ↑	9.8	1.0 · —
Top 5 FA closers (by team rating)
—	Calvin Faucher	Miami Marlins	CL	2	16	56.3	3.99	1.37	3.72	10.1	3.5 · 1%
	Andrew Kittredge	Baltimore Orioles	CL	8	17	42.3	3.19	1.37	3.88	7.4	3.0 · 2%
	Juan Morillo	Arizona Diamondbacks	CL	2	19	53.3	2.19	1.01	2.26	10.5	1.0 · 3%
	Carson Seymour	San Francisco Giants	CL	1	6	19.7	4.58	1.47	6.45 ↑	7.3	1.0 · 0%
	Orlando Ribalta	Washington Nationals	CL	2	14	42.0	3.86	1.24	3.94	8.6	1.0 · 0%

ERA cell: green <3.00 · red >4.50. xERA arrow: ↓ ERA likely to fall (buy) · ↑ ERA likely to rise (sell). Triggers when |xERA−ERA| ≥ 1.00.

✂️ Cut List

Drop priority · value, form, pedigree, role.

50	Royce Lewis 3B · Min low TV (18) sim cost ~0	TV 18 Rd 13
40	Justin Martinez RP · Ari low TV (16); BUT fresh-callup upside; BUT strong RoS (3.46 ERA) sim cost ~0	TV 16 UFDA
19	Ryan Jeffers C · Min mid TV (45); BUT top-tier keeper; BUT young breakout signal sim cost ~0	TV 45 UFDA
15	Kyle Harrison SP · Mil mid TV (60); UFDA — easy to drop; BUT top-tier keeper sim cost ~0	TV 60 UFDA
12	Sandy Alcantara SP · Mia BUT solid keeper sim cost ~0	TV 72 Rd 14

Higher score = drop sooner — top 5 by score, and only 8+ reaches the board, so the number has no ceiling and is only comparable within this list. The sim line is a roto-sim marginal (cut vs. keep on one shared set of draws), not a measured cost. Pedigree + named closers shielded.

🌱 Stash List

PL's top prospects · grab them cheap.

Hitters

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 23: Top 10 Hitting Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + PSS + PFV + age + 40-man + path.

23 available — 2 yours

W. Jenkins YOURS

OF · MIN · AAA · 21 · ↗ called up

100

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

14·18·.323

R. Velazquez YOURS

1B/C · CLE · AA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

28·2·.293

J. Tibbs III

OF · LAD · AAA · 23 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

27·8·.295

S. Thompson

OF · COL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

12·16·.299

M. Arroyo

SS · SEA · AAA · 21 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

18·16·.279

Z. Hope

OF · DET · AA · 21 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

26·23·.282

M. Anderson

2B · DET · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

16·5·.307

J. Melton

OF · TB · AAA · 25 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

7·26·.292

B. Davidson

OF · SFG · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

September

Szn

25·19·.279

C. Cannarella

OF · MIA · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

13·21·.332

S. Walcott

3B/SS · TEX · AA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

5·8·.306

L. Montes

OF · SEA · AAA · 21 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

38·8·.247

Y. Morales

3B · WSN · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

24·6·.287

R. Ward

LF · LAD · AAA · 28 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

20·7·.251

S. King

SS/2B/3B · WSN · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

18·14·.317

C. Ingle

C · CLE · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

18·2·.287

P. Harber

3B · SFG · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

'27

Szn

17·4·.284

J. Made

SS · MIL · AA · 19 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

13·35·.270

H. Mendez

OF · MIN · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

12·4·.278

J. Long

1B · CHC · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

13·3·.278

K. Alderman

OF · MIA · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

18·10·.262

E. Salas

C · SDP · AAA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September

Szn

10·16·.296

D. Crisantes

2B/3B · ARI · AAA · 21 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

9·0·.294

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

Pitchers

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 23: Top 10 Pitching Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + L3 quality + FV + age + 40-man + path.

25 available

L. Perales

SP · WSN · AAA · 23 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

100K·3.94

H. Smith

SP · CHW · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

August 1st

Szn

103K·3.76

B. Mautz

SP · STL · AAA · 24 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

99K·4.12

C. Seymour

SP · SFG · AAA · 27 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

86K·3.95

R. Snelling

SP · MIA · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

46K·2.38

R. Sloan

SP · knocking on the door

PSS

100

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

117K·3.50

J. Tong

SP · NYM · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

133K·4.46

T. Bremner

SP · LAA · AA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

92K·4.08

T. Johnson

SP · TBR · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

82K·2.85

O. Murphy

SP · ATL · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

119K·3.95

D. Davalillo

SP · TEX · AAA · 24 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

91K·5.01

C. Crow

SP · MIL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

97K·3.82

A. Kelly

SP · PIT · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

71K·4.55

M. Forret

SP · BAL · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

121K·3.83

B. Garrett

SP · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

June 1st

Szn

105K·3.95

T. McDougal

SP · CHW · AAA · 23 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

47K·4.75

G. Wood

SP · PHI · AA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

124K·4.40

C. Dana

SP · LAA · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

72K·5.90

J. Wenninger

SP · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

110K·4.23

M. Ullola

SP · HOU · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

95K·4.35

T. Gibson

SP · BAL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

98K·5.13

B. Hopkins

SP · TBR · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

112K·5.46

K. Curtis

SP · PIT · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

113K·4.48

D. Sandlin

SP · CHW · MLB · 25 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

88K·3.46

L. Braun

SP · ATL · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

101K·3.72

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

🔭 11 not a 2026 factor — Liam Doyle · Anthony Eyanson · Jamie Arnold · Joseph Dzierwa · Christian Zazueta · Bryce Mayer · Jaxon Wiggins · Jurrangelo Cijntje · Tyson Hardin · Jonathan Santucci · Karson Milbrandt

💼 Trades

Buy-low targets · league trade history.

Top Buy-Lows

Rebound candidates · suggested offers.

Hitters

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Trent Grisham CF · NYY · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.3σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.216 / xBA 0.247 · xwOBA 0.341	31%	114 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Royce Lewis 3B + Bryce Eldridge 1B · two-piece package (TV 42 vs target 37)
📈 BUY-LOW	JJ Bleday CF · Cin · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.3σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.219 / xBA 0.248 · xwOBA 0.353	24%	104 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 24 vs target 27)
📈 BUY-LOW	Juan Soto RF · NYM · GARR · jregarris +1.1σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.283 / xBA 0.297 · xwOBA 0.422	100%	159 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Kyle Schwarber DH · comparable value (TV 100 vs target 100)
📈 BUY-LOW	Ronald Acuna Jr. RF · Atl · GoOs · My Best Guys +1.2σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.235 / xBA 0.255 · xwOBA 0.362	98%	136 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Blake Snell SP + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 80 vs target 86)
📈 BUY-LOW	Heriberto Hernandez LF · Mia · FRAN · francisw789 +1.1σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.235 / xBA 0.251 · xwOBA 0.353	6%	99 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Royce Lewis 3B · comparable value (TV 17 vs target 23)
↑ mild buy	Taylor Ward LF · Sea · GoOs · My Best Guys +0.6σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.230 / xBA 0.243 · xwOBA 0.338	61%	118 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Jac Caglianone RF + +$4 FAAB · comparable value (TV 52 vs target 60)
↑ mild buy	Dominic Canzone RF · Sea · GARR · jregarris +0.7σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.259 / xBA 0.271 · xwOBA 0.358	12%	114 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Henry Bolte RF + Bryce Eldridge 1B + +$3 FAAB · two-piece package (TV 28 vs target 34)
↑ mild buy	Kyle Stowers LF · Mia · KNIG · TKHOO +0.7σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.242 / xBA 0.234 · xwOBA 0.332	27%	111 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 24 vs target 27)
📈 BUY-LOW	Mike Trout OF · LAA · KNIG · TKHOO +1.5σ buy-low · OF — fits a need · BA 0.241 / xBA 0.253 · xwOBA 0.381	94%	127 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Sandy Alcantara SP · comparable value (TV 72 vs target 77)
↑ mild buy	Ian Happ LF · ChC · FRAN · francisw789 +0.7σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.219 / xBA 0.204 · xwOBA 0.312	74%	108 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Jac Caglianone RF · comparable value (TV 52 vs target 55)

Pitchers

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Kodai Senga SP · NYM · KRTZ · FratSkins +1.5σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 7.64 vs xERA 4.84	10%	3.96 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Ralphy Velazquez 1B · comparable value (TV 2 vs target 5)
↑ mild buy	Freddy Peralta SP · TB · KNIG · TKHOO +0.7σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 5.11 vs xERA 3.97	69%	4.01 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Royce Lewis 3B + Bryce Eldridge 1B · two-piece package (TV 42 vs target 43)
↑ mild buy	Bryce Miller SP · Sea · BLOB · crenshawh19 +0.6σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.12 vs xERA 3.17	34%	4.10 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Jac Caglianone RF · comparable value (TV 52 vs target 48)
↑ mild buy	Kade Anderson SP · Sea · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.0σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.76 vs xERA 2.80	35%	4.61 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Royce Lewis 3B + Bryce Eldridge 1B · two-piece package (TV 42 vs target 39)

League History

Completed trades · frozen grade at the deal + live grade now.

Side	Sent	At deal	Now	Trend
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Andy Pages	A- +7	A+ +44	▲ up
Camp MVP	Pete Crow-Armstrong	C -7	F -44	▼ down
Team Knighton ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Team Knighton	Matthew Boyd	F -22	F -22
Camp MVP	Kenley Jansen	A+ +22	A+ +22
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Worst2First 2026-08-10
Miz-waukee’s Best	Charlie Condon, Payton Tolle	A+ +50	A+ +35	▼ down
Worst2First	Dylan Cease	F -50	F -35	▲ up
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Dorn and Associates LLC 2026-08-05
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Travis Bazzana, George Lombard Jr., Nolan McLean	A+ +144	A+ +107	▼ down
Dorn and Associates LLC	Jackson Chourio, Jhoan Duran, Brice Turang, David Bednar	F -144	F -107	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-07-31
Miz-waukee’s Best	Samuel Basallo, Kade Anderson	A- +8	A+ +34	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine	Blake Snell	C -8	F -34	▼ down
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Team Knighton 2026-07-23
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Jo Adell, Jacob deGrom	F -49	F -51
Team Knighton	Trea Turner	A+ +49	A+ +51
Ramirez Against the Machine ⇄ Miz-waukee’s Best 2026-07-19
Ramirez Against the Machine	Sandy Alcantara	F -42	F -68	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best	Josh Jung	A+ +42	A+ +68	▲ up
I need Buck Showalter ⇄ Hit the Damn Ball You Bums 2026-06-19
I need Buck Showalter	Nasim Nunez	A+ +28	B +1	▼ down
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Justin Wrobleski	F -28	B -1	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ The Boys of Summer 2026-06-12
Miz-waukee’s Best	Chandler Simpson	A +10	A- +7	▼ down
The Boys of Summer	$30 FAAB	D -10	C -7	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-05-01
Miz-waukee’s Best	Kenley Jansen	—	A- +6
Camp MVP	$30 FAAB	A- +3	C -6	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-04-22
Miz-waukee’s Best	Nathan Eovaldi, $70 FAAB	—	F -15
Ramirez Against the Machine	Jac Caglianone	A+ +60	A+ +15	▼ down

🔻 Sell-High — My Roster

Surface line outrunning the underlying skill — trade-value peaks. σ = his surface-stat z-score minus his Statcast-skill z-score, both against the league reference for his side — bigger σ = further ahead of the skill. Pair with Buy-Low Targets.

Verdict	Player	Own	Surface vs expected	Contact	2027 keeper
↓ SHOP	Henry Bolte RF · Oak 0.67σ sell-high · RF · BA 0.269 / xBA 0.240 · xwOBA 0.304 — test the market, don't force it	4%	BA 0.269 / xBA 0.240 +.029 wOBA 0.321 / xwOBA 0.304 +.017	HH 47.9% · Brl/PA 4.3%	25th · +2 rds vs mkt
↓ SHOP	Yandy Diaz 1B · TB 0.66σ sell-high · 1B · BA 0.302 / xBA 0.287 · xwOBA 0.355 — test the market, don't force it	93%	BA 0.302 / xBA 0.287 +.015 wOBA 0.363 / xwOBA 0.355 +.008	HH 47.5% · Brl/PA 5.2%	7th · +1 rd vs mkt
HOLD — KEEPER PRICE	Louis Varland RP · Tor 0.42σ sell-high · RP · ERA 1.20 vs xERA 2.20 — only move for keeper-grade return	86%	ERA 1.20 / xERA 2.20 -1.00	Brl 4.3% allowed	22nd · +16 rds vs mkt

👥 Your Roster

Your roster · news + buy/sell signals.

News (last 24h)

Player news · last 24h.

Yandy Diaz Simpson's RBI single caps 4-run 7th inning as Rays rally to defeat Padres 7-6
Sat 08-29 11:47 PM
— Yandy Diaz knocked in three runs with a bases-loaded single in the seventh inning and Chandler Simpson followed with a tiebreaking RBI hit as the Tampa Bay Rays rallied to beat San Diego 7-6 on Saturday in a game in which Padres second baseman Luis...
Walker Jenkins Fantasy baseball news and notes: Buxton ailing, Strider's season over and more news for Saturday
Sat 08-29 12:59 PM
All of the important fantasy spin and actionable takeaways resulting from the latest baseball news.
Jordan Lawlar Fantasy baseball lineup advice for Saturday: Kade Anderson tops streaming candidates
Sat 08-29 10:58 AM
Everything you need to know to set your fantasy baseball lineups for Saturday's MLB action.

Leverage Buys/Sells

Buy/sell windows · surface vs. underlying.

Hitters

Player	Pos	MLB	BA	xBA	wOBA	xwOBA	Brl%	Own%	Signal
James Wood IL10	LF	Wsh	0.265	0.275	0.395	0.419	100.0	99.1	📈 BUY-LOW
Miguel Vargas	3B	ChW	0.249	0.269	0.370	0.391	93.0	95.2	📈 BUY-LOW
Kyle Schwarber	DH	Phi	0.244	0.239	0.380	0.368	98.0	99.5	📈 BUY-LOW
Bryce Eldridge	1B	SF	0.261	0.254	0.348	0.354	79.0	8.4	↑ mild buy
Zach Neto	SS	LAA	0.236	0.208	0.328	0.306	76.0	60.6	fair
Jac Caglianone	RF	KC	0.285	0.284	0.359	0.363	93.0	59.2	fair
Yandy Diaz	1B	TB	0.304	0.287	0.363	0.355	42.0	92.6	↓ mild fade
Cole Carrigg	CF	Col	0.263	0.252	0.342	0.321	—	13.6	fair
Ryan Jeffers	C	Min	0.269	0.251	0.366	0.351	73.0	39.6	fair
Randy Arozarena	LF	Sea	0.271	0.261	0.367	0.349	50.0	93.8	fair
Henry Bolte	RF	Oak	0.271	0.240	0.321	0.304	44.0	4.1	↓ mild fade
Kaelen Culpepper	SS	Min	0.312	0.258	0.392	0.332	—	6.3	fair
Royce Lewis	3B	Min	0.235	0.243	0.307	0.315	73.0	16.3	↑ mild buy
Walker Jenkins	CF	Min	0.333	0.305	0.397	0.486	50.0	9.7	—
Jordan Lawlar	3B	Ari	0.271	0.266	0.346	0.325	—	3.1	fair
Ralphy Velazquez	1B	Cle	—	—	—	—	—	0.8	—
Pedro Ramirez	3B	ChC	0.292	0.267	0.339	0.305	—	3.3	fair

Pitchers

Pitcher	Pos	MLB	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K-BB%	xwOBA-a	Brl%-a	Own%	Signal
Blake Snell	SP	LAD	26.0	2.42	1.08	2.29	22.0	0.236	0.0	89.1	↑ mild buy
Andres Munoz	RP	Sea	48.3	4.28	1.22	3.31	27.9	0.283	9.4	80.2	↑ mild buy
Joe Ryan IL15	SP	Min	125.7	4.08	1.15	3.49	21.2	0.290	10.5	89.9	fair
Jacob Misiorowski	SP	Mil	151.0	1.73	0.75	2.00	32.7	0.220	3.6	99.6	fair
Dylan Cease	SP	Tor	150.3	2.33	1.05	2.65	25.3	0.254	5.1	99.3	fair
Sandy Alcantara	SP	Mia	189.7	3.46	1.19	3.64	11.5	0.296	5.3	91.5	fair
Eury Perez	SP	Mia	130.7	3.44	1.13	3.72	16.2	0.299	9.3	81.0	fair
Kyle Harrison	SP	Mil	103.3	2.79	1.12	3.24	23.6	0.280	6.8	77.7	fair
Louis Varland	RP	Tor	68.7	1.18	0.98	2.20	24.7	0.231	4.3	86.4	↓ mild fade
Justin Martinez	RP	Ari	3.7	0.00	1.09	3.54	6.2	0.292	0.0	1.7	—

📰 MLB News — Top Fantasy Stories

🔒 Keepers — 2027 Slate

Peter's model (additive): rounds-saved (cost arbitrage spine) + current skill + career-grade pedigree + sample stability + Statcast over/under-performance trend, with age-decline (33+), closer/RP, and top-30 talent adjustments. Heavy on bargain-hunting.
Claude's model (multiplicative dynasty index): EFV(2027) = (3 + skill + upside) × age_mult × pos_mult; score = EFV − cost_replacement − mookie-lock. Compounds age curve and position scarcity.
Sorted by consensus rank (average of both models). MLB-inactive players surfaced in 🚑 Return Watch below.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict	Notes
1.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	21st	#1 (+24.4)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51	UFDA-G FV 55
2.5	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	25th	#2 (+23.8)	#3 (+19.8)	S · $20	UFDA
2.5	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	22nd	#3 (+21.4)	#2 (+27.1)	S · $27
4.5	Eury Perez	SP · 23yo	20th	#4 (+18.3)	#5 (+15.2)	A · $15	UFDA-G
5.5	Dylan Cease	SP · 30yo	4th	#7 (+13.0)	#4 (+17.5)	A · $17
6.0	Jac Caglianone	RF · 22yo	21st	#5 (+16.8)	#7 (+13.2)	A · $13	UFDA-G FV 55
6.0	Bryce Eldridge	1B · 20yo	25th	#6 (+16.1)	#6 (+14.4)	A · $14	UFDA FV 55
8.5	Cole Carrigg	CF · 22yo	25th	#8 (+12.2)	— (+6.6)	B · $7	UFDA FV 40
8.5	Zach Neto	SS · 25yo	10th	— (+11.7)	#8 (+10.3)	A · $10

NEW UFDA cap: Peter 3/3 · Claude 2/3 · BOTH = top 8 in both models. Peter only = his model values cost surplus more; Claude only = mine values projection / position scarcity more.

🚑 Return watch — would be keeper-eligible if they get MLB action this year. Rank shown is hypothetical (where they'd slot if eligible).

Player	Pos · Age	Cost	Peter (if elig.)	Claude (if elig.)
Walker Jenkins	CF · 20yo	25th	#13 (+6.0)	#10 (+6.5)
Ralphy Velazquez	1B · 19yo	25th	#14 (-2.0)	#11 (+1.4)

Updated Sun Aug 30 · 4:21 AM ET

🌍 League-Wide Top Keepers

Top 10 keepers · all 12 teams · both models. Yours in green.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	Team	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict
1.5	Jesus Luzardo	SP · 28yo	KNIG	21st	#1 (+28.9)	#2 (+42.1)	S · $42
3.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	MIZ	21st	#5 (+24.4)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51
3.5	Jordan Walker	RF · 24yo	GARR	25th	#2 (+27.4)	#5 (+38.7)	S · $39
3.5	Bryan Baker	RP · 31yo	DORN	25th	#3 (+25.0)	#4 (+38.7)	S · $39
7.0	Cam Schlittler	SP · 24yo	KRTZ	19th	— (+19.5)	#3 (+40.8)	S · $41
7.5	Payton Tolle	SP · 22yo	FRST	25th	#4 (+24.9)	— (+21.2)	S · $21
7.5	Nolan McLean	SP · 23yo	DORN	20th	#9 (+22.4)	#6 (+32.7)	S · $33
8.5	Jose Soriano	SP · 27yo	BLOB	25th	#6 (+24.3)	— (+21.2)	S · $21
8.5	Foster Griffin	SP · 30yo	GoOs	25th	#10 (+22.0)	#7 (+29.9)	S · $30
9.0	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	MIZ	25th	#7 (+23.8)	— (+19.8)	S · $20
9.5	Ben Rice	1B · 27yo	DORN	20th	#8 (+23.4)	— (+24.0)	S · $24
9.5	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	MIZ	22nd	— (+21.4)	#8 (+27.1)	S · $27
10.0	Cade Cavalli	SP · 26yo	FRAN	21st	— (+19.8)	#9 (+26.1)	S · $26
10.5	Drew Rasmussen	SP · 30yo	THAR	8th	— (+13.6)	#10 (+26.0)	S · $26

Updated Sun Aug 30 · 4:21 AM ET

🏚️ Keeper Cupboards

Every team's six best keepers · shade = dual-model consensus value. Cupboard score weights the top four heavily (the slots that get kept), keepers 5–8 taper. 100 = league's best cupboard.

Team	K1	K2	K3	K4	K5	K6	Cupboard
1MIZ	MisiorowskiR21	VargasR25	VarlandR22	PerezR20	CeaseR4	CaglianoneR21	100
2DORN	BakerR25	RiceR20	McLeanR20	PerdomoR21	WarrenR25	EdmanR25	92
3KNIG	LuzardoR21	AbreuR15	deGromR13	MartinezR25	RodriguezR25	DuranR25	84
4GARR	WalkerR25	MessickR18	CanzoneR25	HancockR25	BuschR11	GoreR8	76
5KRTZ	SchlittlerR19	BurkeR25	StewartR10	McGonigleR17	IIR5	WebbR25	72
6GoOs	GriffinR25	BradleyR25	WachaR25	BurlesonR9	BaldwinR14	RafaelaR8	71
7FRAN	CavalliR21	LatzR25	BradishR21	AntonacciR25	BurnsR5	McClanahanR17	71
8THAR	RasmussenR8	O'BrienR17	WilliamsR11	GonzalesR25	LeeR25	MizeR19	65
9BLOB	SorianoR25	LopezR20	ScottR25	BurgerR19	ArandaR14	SuarezR12	63
10FRST	TolleR25	RouppR25	WheelerR8	ElderR25	SkubalR1	DurbinR17	59
11PEYT ▼ thin	HendersonR25	SanchezR9	WooR8	CameronR18	NolaR16	WetherholtR13	58
12RAGE ▼ thin	CamineroR5	BledayR25	LeeR21	BibeeR14	JumpR25	ImanagaR9	47

The bottom two rows are your trade marks — thin cupboards pay up for keepable pieces.

data: snap 0h · BP 5d · PL 5d · HL 44h · PSS 0h · BR 0h · FG 19h · proj 19h · closer 0h · oyster 15h · AAA-sc 5h · cookie ok