Miz-waukee’s Best — The Brandon League

Last updated Thursday, September 17 · 11:34 AM ET

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Any player in the league universe · tap a result for the card.

☕ Morning Briefing

🏆 MIZ holds the top spot at 102.5 roto points, 13.0 clear of Phil Swift's Flex Seal in 2nd — a comfortable cushion, though you've slid 3.5 pts since the last update and two category vulnerabilities deserve attention: SB is dead even with PEYT (one swing costs a roto point), and your ERA trails FRST by just 0.00 — essentially a coin flip worth +1 if you close it.

⚾ Your guys delivered across the board yesterday. Jared Jones punched out 9 Brewers over 5 IP (7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB) — a strong ratios line despite the 3 earned; Henry Bolte went 1-4 with a HR and a run scored; Zach Neto contributed 2-3 with a run, a walk, and a stolen base (critical given the SB squeeze); and Louis Varland was filthy out of the pen — 1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 2 K, SV. Sandy Alcantara also picked up a save working a scoreless inning in relief.

🚨 One urgent roster note: Kaelen Culpepper landed on the IL with a strained left hamstring — monitor his timeline, as any SB production from him is on hold and that category is already razor-thin against PEYT.

🔭 On the wire, Anthony Volpe was just dropped by Hit the Damn Ball You Bums and is now a free agent — a name with real underlying skill worth a look depending on your roster flexibility. Early contact-heat signals on Drew Gilbert (L7: 82/99, 0.546 xwOBAcon) and Michael Arroyo (L7: 82/99, 0.549 xwOBAcon) are worth bookmarking, though both are small-sample reads not yet on the Heat Board.

📰 The big external note affecting your roster directly: Blake Snell exited his start after just one inning with left groin tightness, though he said afterward he expects to make at least one more start before season's end — worth watching closely given how late in the year it is. Elsewhere, Jackson Holliday's left wrist inflammation puts him on the IL and vaults Jeremiah Jackson into a larger Baltimore keystone role — relevant context if you're eyeing the closer situation there, as Rico Garcia is the top-rated available closer on your FA verdict board with the save gap live at +5.

ELIGIBILITYK. Schwarber 1B 8/10T. Saggese 3B 6/10

Your standing

1stof 12

102.5 roto pts +13.0 clear of 2nd

-3.5 pts vs last update

Top Gaps

W (7.0) SB (8.5)

categories below mid-pack

Score change since last update

AVG -1.0ERA -1.0WHIP -1.0SB -0.5

🎯 Category Pressure

Category ranks vs. the league.

Rank →

Δ to #1

1013

1095

🥇

290

323

🥇

RBI

959

997

🥇

152

157

172

212

+55

AVG

.253

.255

.256

.261

+0.005

1279

1298

1449

+151

+13

102

+17

ERA

3.57

3.45

−0.00

WHIP

1.18

1.16

−0.00

📅 Yesterday's MIZ Box Scores (2026-09-16)

Loading box scores…

🏥 IL Rehab Tracker

IL players · rehab game logs.

On the IL, no rehab games yet: Kaelen Culpepper (IL10), Spencer Schwellenbach (IL60 · watch).

📊 League Activity (last 24h)

All adds, drops, and trades across the 12 teams.

Team	Move
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	+ Joey Ortiz \| − Andre Pallante
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	+ Brett Baty \| − Yusei Kikuchi
Miz-waukee’s Best	+ Thomas Saggese
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	+ Richie Palacios \| − Anthony Volpe
Phil Swift's Flex Seal	+ Ty France \| − Angel Martinez
Phil Swift's Flex Seal	− Andres Gimenez

🏆 League Standings

Current roto points · 10,000-sim projected finish. FAAB = acquisition budget remaining.

100.0% to win the league · proj finish 1.0 · 103.7 roto pts

#	Team	Pts	FAAB	Win%	Proj Pts	Range	Proj Rk
1	MIZ Miz-waukee’s Best	102.5	$0	100.0%	103.7	102–106	1.0
2	PEYT Phil Swift's Flex Seal	89.5	$21	0.0%	91.2	89–94	2.0
3	KRTZ Photogenic Nick Kurtz	84.5	$16	0.0%	86.2	84–89	3.0
4	FRAN Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	81.0	$24	0.0%	80.4	78–83	4.0
5	BLOB Camp MVP	68.0	$168	0.0%	69.5	67–72	5.0
6	THAR Phil Mickeltits	62.5	$176	0.0%	60.5	58–63	6.7
7	GoOs I need Buck Showalter	62.5	$170	0.0%	62.1	59–65	6.2
8	KNIG Team Knighton	58.0	$132	0.0%	57.6	56–60	7.9
9	FRST Worst2First	48.0	$154	0.0%	47.5	45–50	9.1
10	DORN Dorn and Associates LLC	44.5	$89	0.0%	44.1	42–46	10.6
11	GARR The Boys of Summer	44.5	$155	0.0%	45.5	44–47	9.9
12	RAGE Ramirez Against the Machine	34.5	$163	0.0%	31.6	30–33	12.0

10,000 sims · fixed seed · noise CV talent 0.12 / idio 0.06 / team-cat 0.08 · assumes ATC rest-of-season rates

Your categories · projected roto points

R 12.0HR 12.0RBI 12.0SB 8.5AVG 9.0W 7.4SV 9.0K 11.0ERA 11.4WHIP 11.3

Winnable — push here: SB, AVG, W, SV.

🚨 Today's Streaming Board

171 of 200 GS · should be 189 · 18 behindBehind pace — stream aggressively

029 left · ~20.3/wk to cap · proj 181200

⏳ BP's post is late — Verdict pill is running on our score + Pitcher List for now (BP joins the top-2 once it posts).

Top FA streamers today

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Dustin May	@ PIT	START	—	—	#5	Rough month but underlying skills intact; ride it out.
Kyle Harrison	@ PIT	START	—	6.4	—	soft PIT lineup, strong skills
Erick Fedde	vs DET	DART⚠ opener	—	5.0	—	tough DET lineup, hot recent form, weak skills
Jeffrey Springs	@ TB	SIT	—	4.5	#12	Revenge-game motivation noted but outcomes still uncertain.
Cody Bradford	vs. BOS	SIT	—	—	#9	Command and precision missing since IL return.
Seth Lugo	@ HOU	SITleash	—	2.7	#10	Explicit short leash and skills not backing it up.
Andrew Sears	@ CHW	SIT	—	—	#11	Unproven rookie; weak White Sox offense only saving grace.
Tanner Gordon	vs SD	SIT⚠ opener	—	2.7	#17	Hard pass, no qualifying context offered.
Ethan Pecko	vs. KCR	SIT	—	—	#15	Hard cap on upside; low ceiling limits streaming value.
Khristian Curtis	vs. MIL	SIT	—	—	#16	Has yet to deliver; no sign of a breakthrough.

Openers filtered: Wilber Dotel, Tyler Alexander

Your staff: 3.45 ERA / 1.16 WHIP · GS 171/200 — Behind pace — stream aggressively. Verdict = the best 2 of BP · our score · Pitcher List, averaged (low outlier dropped); before BP posts it's our score + PL. ⚠ = our matchup score dissented — eyeball that one. Tap a MIZ score for the reasoning.

Tomorrow · 1 of yours + top 5 FA · Fri 9/18 · BP not out yet, so pill = our score + Pitcher List

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Dylan Cease	@ TEX	START	—	6.9	—	soft TEX lineup, strong skills, hot recent form
Connor Prielipp	@ LAA	START	—	6.5	—	soft LAA lineup, hot recent form
Andrew Sears	@ CWS	START	—	6.4	—	tough CWS lineup, strong skills
Dustin May	@ BAL	DART	—	4.5	—	average BAL lineup, hitter park
Randy Dobnak	@ PIT	DART	—	4.3	—	tough PIT lineup, weak skills, hot recent form
Cesar Perdomo	@ LAD	DART	—	4.2	—	tough LAD lineup

Openers filtered: Daniel Espino

📼 Streamer Report Card

Does the Streaming Board actually work? Every pick it showed, frozen at pick time and graded off the real box score. Two scoreboards below: first our own calls — the Verdict ladder and MIZ (our matchup score, 0–10) — then the outside lists behind them, BP (RelieverRecon's daily BP Streamers post) and PL (Pitcher List's tier ranking). Grades are recomputed from raw lines on every build — the rubric can change, the history follows.

Last 30d · 340 starts graded over 29 days · GOOD+ 45% · BLOWUP 18% · agg ERA 4.37 · WHIP 1.36 · 4.5 K/start · 372 picks logged, 22 never started, 10 awaiting a box score — not graded

Grade mix · all 340 graded starts

GEM 53 GOOD 100 OK 126 BLOWUP 61

GEM6+ IP, ≤1 ER · or 6+ IP, 8+ K, ≤2 ERGOODquality start (6+ IP, ≤3 ER) · or 5+ IP, ≤2 EROKheld the line without earning GOODBLOWUP5+ ER · or under 4 IP with 4+ ERGOOD+ = GEM + GOOD. A pick whose starter never took the ball grades to nothing and leaves every rate below.

Cohort	n	GOOD+	BLOWUP	ERA
Q1 — Do our own calls work? · Verdict ladder + MIZ bands · live board rows only, nothing backfilled
Verdict · AUTO START	21	62%	19%	4.06
Verdict · START	46	54%	15%	4.45
Verdict · DART	81	43%	19%	4.59
Verdict · SIT	192	42%	18%	4.29
MIZ ≥ 5.0	101	54%	22%	4.44
MIZ 3.5–4.9	138	41%	17%	4.59
MIZ < 3.5	83	43%	14%	4.06
All live board picks	340	45%	18%	4.37
Q1 read — GOOD+ falls 62% · 54% · 43% · 42% down the rungs, but BLOWUP does not rise with it, and MIZ does not sort: 54% · 41% · 43% from the top band down.
Q2 — Which outside list earns the weight? · BP and PL graded on their own published lists · mostly rebuilt from git
PL · Auto Start	22	55%	23%	4.80
PL · Probably Start	51	53%	16%	4.22
PL · Questionable Start	99	49%	17%	4.20
PL · Do Not Start	145	39%	20%	4.62
BP · Auto thin	4	50%	0%	3.48
BP · Likely	15	53%	20%	4.06
All graded picks	340	45%	18%	4.37
Q2 read — against the 45% all-picks baseline, PL's top tiers clear it (55% · 53%) and BP's top tiers are too thin to call (50% · 53% on n=4 · n=15).

Rows are overlapping lenses on the same picks, not a partition — one start can be a PL Auto Start and a Verdict SIT at once, so they never sum to the headline; each group is read against its own baseline row.

⚠ Dissent check — the override is ahead so far — 60% GOOD+ on n=5. Splits are picks the board started over our MIZ sit-call (vs 45% for all live picks).

Calibration — do our numbers mean anything? · full season, 2026-06-29→2026-09-16 · 1085 graded picks · MIZ on 541, BP on 230, Verdict on 566

The ladder above asks whether the tiers sort. This asks the harder question: is the number a probability — when the board says 7, do 70% of those starts come back GOOD+? Bins are equal-count and merge until every one clears n=15; the walk-forward rows are scored against a model that only ever saw earlier days.

Score bin	n	mean	GOOD+	95% CI
MIZ score → P(GOOD+) · our matchup score, 0–10 · live rows only · n=541
MIZ 0.5–3.3	126	2.7	42%	34%–51%
MIZ 3.4–4.0	100	3.7	43%	34%–53%
MIZ 4.1–4.8	110	4.4	51%	42%–60%
MIZ 4.9–5.6	105	5.2	50%	41%–60%
MIZ 5.7–8.9	100	6.4	57%	47%–66%
All MIZ-scored picks	541	—	48%	—
BP score → P(GOOD+) · RelieverRecon's published rating · includes git-backfilled rows · n=230
BP 4.6–6.6	48	6.1	35%	23%–50%
BP 6.7–7.3	44	7.0	52%	38%–66%
BP 7.4–7.7	47	7.5	45%	31%–59%
BP 7.8–8.4	47	8.1	47%	33%–61%
BP 8.5–10.0	44	9.1	43%	30%–58%
All BP-scored picks	230	—	44%	—
Verdict tier → P(GOOD+) · the consensus call itself · live rows only
AUTO START	36	—	64%	48%–78%
START	73	—	56%	45%–67%
DART	151	—	47%	39%–55%
SIT	306	—	45%	40%–51%

Out-of-sample	n	value	vs
Walk-forward probability · logistic on MIZ, refit daily on earlier days only · from 2026-08-05 · 42 days
Brier — our probability	477	0.250	lower is better
Brier — flat base rate to date	477	0.253	we win by 0.003
Brier — verdict-tier history	477	0.255	we win by 0.004
Log loss — our probability	477	0.693	lower is better
ECE — our probability	477	0.069	5 equal-count bins
ECE bins · predicted p vs what actually happened
said 32%–45%	95	44%	off by 3%
said 45%–50%	96	39%	off by 9%
said 50%–55%	95	45%	off by 7%
said 55%–59%	96	49%	off by 8%
said 59%–74%	95	56%	off by 8%
Verdict — usable with caveats: ECE 0.069 over n=477 out-of-sample picks (≤0.03 well calibrated · ≤0.07 usable with caveats); edges the flat base rate on Brier (0.250 vs 0.253, a thin margin; log-loss ~coin-flip).

🔥 Today's Hitter Streamers

Top 10 FA bats for today's slate · score = split vs SP hand (35%) + SP softness (35%) + bat quality (15%) + trailing 15 days (10%) + park (5%) · facing an elite arm fades the score hard (feast on weak pitchers).

#	Hitter	Matchup	Why	Legs	Score
1	AUTO STARTRandal GrichukRF · 1% own	vs DET · Valdez LHP	szn .336 xwOBAL15: 1.148 OPS (35 PA)L14 contact +4.3 (.466 xwOBAcon, 24 BBE)usually bats 2nd (×1.10)fills OF needbeats 5 of 5 eligible startersValdez .323 allowed · avg SP1.008 OPS vs LHP (152 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	86
2	AUTO STARTEduardo Valencia1B · 3% own	@ CWS · Fedde RHP	szn .338 xwOBAL15: 0.878 OPS (26 PA)L14 contact +0.9 (.390 xwOBAcon, 17 BBE)usually bats 5thbeats 3 of 3 eligible startersshort side vs RHP — 53% of ABFedde .331 allowed · soft SP0.933 OPS vs RHP (53 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	74
3	AUTO STARTDane MyersCF · 0% own	vs LAD · Wrobleski LHP	szn .313 xwOBAL15: 0.896 OPS (39 PA)L14 contact -0.6 (.357 xwOBAcon, 22 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)fills OF needbeats 5 of 5 eligible startersWrobleski .332 allowed · soft SP0.833 OPS vs LHP (118 AB)CIN plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	70
4	AUTO STARTRyan ViladeRF · 0% own	vs ATH · Springs LHP	szn .331 xwOBAusually bats 2nd (×1.10)fills OF needbeats 9 of 9 eligible startersSprings .337 allowed · soft SP0.837 OPS vs LHP (139 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	69
5	AUTO STARTRyan WardLF · 0% own	@ CIN · Singer RHP	szn .316 xwOBAfills OF needbeats 6 of 9 eligible startersSinger .353 allowed · soft SP0.779 OPS vs RHP (52 AB)CIN plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	64
6	STARTRafael Flores Jr.1B · 3% own	vs MIL · Harrison LHP	szn .344 xwOBAL15: 0.943 OPS (43 PA)L14 contact +3.5 (.448 xwOBAcon, 30 BBE)usually bats 7th (×0.95)beats 1 of 3 eligible startersHarrison .303 allowed · avg SP0.908 OPS vs LHP (60 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	63
7	CONSIDERLuis CampusanoC · 1% own	@ COL · Gordon RHP	szn .333 xwOBAL15: 0.741 OPS (51 PA)L14 contact +1.2 (.397 xwOBAcon, 36 BBE)usually bats 6th (×0.98)beats 0 of 1 eligible startersGordon .328 allowed · soft SP0.828 OPS vs RHP (154 AB)COL plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	61
8	STARTColt Keith1B · 5% own	@ CWS · Fedde RHP	szn .336 xwOBAL15: 0.837 OPS (28 PA)L14 contact +3.2 (.441 xwOBAcon, 16 BBE)usually bats 3rd (×1.07)beats 3 of 6 eligible startersFedde .331 allowed · soft SP0.757 OPS vs RHP (355 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	61
9	AUTO STARTDustin HarrisLF · 1% own	@ COL · Gordon RHP	szn .336 xwOBAL15: 0.771 OPS (36 PA)L14 contact -0.6 (.356 xwOBAcon, 28 BBE)usually bats 2nd (×1.10)fills OF needbeats 3 of 5 eligible startersGordon .328 allowed · soft SP0.757 OPS vs RHP (79 AB)COL plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	60
10	CONSIDERJoc PedersonDH · 2% own	vs BOS · Gray RHP	szn .343 xwOBAL14 contact +1.5 (.404 xwOBAcon, 15 BBE)DTD — check lineupusually bats 1st (×1.12)beats 0 of 1 eligible startersGray .302 allowed · avg SP0.834 OPS vs RHP (343 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	60

Tiers vs YOUR lineup tonight — median starter 55, worst Walker Jenkins (4). AUTO START = beats the median eligible starter.

TBD starter = neutral SP + split legs until the probable posts (refresh upgrades it). Splits need 30+ AB vs that hand. IL bats are excluded; bats who rarely start against tonight's hand are dropped. Doubleheaders: legs average the ends he plays, and everyday bats get up to a ×1.50 volume boost. Lineup slot scales the score by expected PAs from the bat's usual spot (leadoff ×1.12 … 9-hole ×0.90, modal over the last ~10 played days) — his typical order, not today's card, since that posts after waivers run.

🎯 FA Hitters — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Kyle Schwarber

1Jared Young1B · NYM · 0.9%HEATER

88/99 heat on 31 BBE (trusted sample) + 95.7 EV; elite contact quality leads this pool

Heat 88 · 31 BBE · ATC 30 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.239 · L7 0.263 · 1 HR · sim +0.4 pts

2Rafael Flores Jr.

1B · Pit · 2.6% · HEATER

30 BBE trusted sample, .448 xwOBAcon, .421 BA L14; sustained contact quality with real production

Heat 74 · 30 BBE · ATC 23 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.234 · L7 0.429 · 1 HR · sim +0.4 pts

3Randal Grichuk

RF · ChW · 0.5% · HEATER

.466 xwOBAcon, 94 EV on 24 BBE; .419/.400 BA L14/L7 with HR/RBI production corroborates heat

Heat 72 · 24 BBE · ATC 17 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.249 · L7 0.4 · 1 HR · sim +0.4 pts

4Moises Ballesteros

C · LAA · 1.8% · BEST VALUE

Most PA (36) of any candidate; .414 BA L14, 2 HR corroborate heat; best volume play available

Heat 70 · 25 BBE · ATC 36 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.248 · L7 0.417 · 1 HR · sim +0.4 pts

5Connor Norby

3B · Col · 2.4% · CATEGORY FIT

Only candidate projecting 1 SB RoS; SB rank 5 with razor-thin 5-point gap above and below

Heat 74 · 23 BBE · ATC 33 PA · 1 HR · 1 SB · 0.254 · L7 0.35 · 0 HR · sim +0.4 pts

Passed on: Lars Nootbaar has the best ATC projection (32 PA, wRC+ 109) but his L14 heat sample is only 24 BBE with modest production (.290 BA, 1 HR) that doesn't distinguish him from the hotter bats above.

💪 Hitter List Rankings

PL Top 150 hitters · your bats + top FAs.

On Hitter List · 17 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Hitter	MLB	Pos	Chg	AVG	xwOBA	HR	SB	RoS	Chu’s Take
16	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	DH	+3	.237	.365	45	3	123
18	Randy Arozarena	SEA	OF	-	.278	.346	25	23	127
21	Miguel Vargas	CHW	1B/3B	+19	.249	.379	31	19	115	Miguel Vargas has returned to the levels we saw early this summer and that really revs my engine. He’s one of those players who has shown…
36	Yandy Díaz	TB	1B	+3	.297	.350	22	3	122
46	Zach Neto	LAA	SS	+11	.243	.311	26	21	111	Zach Neto has been a monster over the last nine games, with 17 hits, 18 combined runs and RBI (a seven RBI night helps), and seven extra-…
59	Jac Caglianone	KC	1B/OF	+13	.278	.353	23	6	107	Jac Caglianone still hits a lot of grounders, but not quite as many as before (the rolling 15-game rate is a hair below 50%) and the stri…
77	Royce Lewis	MIN	1B/2B/3B	-15	.228	.311	14	15	96	Royce Lewis is streaky. We just gotta deal with that.
85	Cole Carrigg	COL	SS/OF	-22	.266	.313	10	9	67	The strikeouts have creeped up on Cole Carrigg , up to 32% over his last 11 games (which is, conveniently, exactly 50 plate appearances).…
106	Luis Robert Jr.	BAL	OF	+UR	.221	.321	11	2	100
109	Mickey Gasper	BOS	C/1B	+UR	.266	.372	9	0	104	Mickey Gasper — Fantastic mustache, first of all. Second of all, the batted ball data suggests what’s happening of late is very real, tho…
115	Kaelen Culpepper	MIN	SS	+UR	.275	.298	3	1	90	Kaelen Culpepper — Culpepper puts a lot of balls in play and it’s working out so far. The BABIP Gods can be cruel, though. The 55 point g…
119	Rafael Flores Jr.	PIT	C/1B	+UR	.274	.344	9	0	83
133	Connor Norby	COL	1B/2B/3B	+UR	.235	.307	7	8	90	Connor Norby still has huge contact issues but the guy can hit the ball hard in the air and plays for Colorado so stream away.
135	Henry Bolte	ATH	OF	+UR	.275	.318	11	20	93	Henry Bolte is leading off again and should get some games in Sacramento soon, if you need a streamer.
137	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	BAL	1B/3B	+UR	.277	.342	10	1	91
143	Alejandro Kirk	TOR	C	+UR	.280	.312	10	1	113
145	Tyler Stephenson	CIN	C	-33	.247	.330	15	0	94
146	Ryan Jeffers	MIN	C	-29	.259	.350	14	1	116
148	Andruw Monasterio	BOS	2B/SS	-26	.239	.292	6	4	89
149	Dylan Crews	WSH	OF	-35	.222	.312	11	9	83
TS	Bryce Eldridge	SF	1B	—	.269	.359	17	1	99	Bryce Eldridge (1B, SFG) — Power prospects can often take a while to really shine.
TS	Walker Jenkins	Min	OF	—	.089	.244	1	1	102	Walker Jenkins (OF, MIN) — Jenkins will get the call today after a white-hot month in the triple-A. He’s worth a scoop in most leagues, E…
UR	Emmanuel Rodriguez	Min	OF	—	.263	.480	1	0	94	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	James Wood	Wsh	OF	—	.265	.412	30	21	126	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Leo Bernal	StL	C	—	.295	.378	3	0	84	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Thomas Saggese	StL	2B/SS/OF	—	.267	.319	4	4	83	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Victor Mesa Jr.	TB	OF	—	.252	.335	13	9	88	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.

🔥 Heat Board

Hottest ACTIVE free-agent bats by contact quality, 9/3–9/16 · Heat = percentile vs all MLB bats over the same window (xwOBAcon 30 · EV 20 · Brl 20 · HH 15 · K 10 · BB 5) · min 15 BBE to qualify (smaller samples live in the HM rail) · IL excluded.

Jared Young

1B · NYM · 0.9% own · xwOBAcon .436 · EV 95.7 · Brl 12.9% · 31 BBE

▲ .026 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.268	9	38	46	3
L14	.294	1	3	10	0

Francisco Alvarez

C · NYM · 8.8% own · xwOBAcon .459 · EV 94.2 · Brl 15.0% · 20 BBE

▼ .034 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.228	15	37	33	0
L14	.194	2	3	4	0

Nathaniel Lowe

1B · Cle · 1.4% own · xwOBAcon .436 · EV 91.9 · Brl 11.1% · 27 BBE

▲ .010 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.255	17	59	38	0
L14	.265	2	7	4	0

Yainer Diaz

C · Hou · 40.7% own · xwOBAcon .371 · EV 95.6 · Brl 12.1% · 33 BBE

▲ .133 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.277	12	38	34	0
L14	.410	2	5	4	0

Lars Nootbaar

LF · Ari · 2.4% own · xwOBAcon .421 · EV 92.3 · Brl 8.3% · 24 BBE

▲ .052 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.238	7	31	31	2
L14	.290	1	4	2	0

Rafael Flores Jr.

1B · Pit · 2.6% own · xwOBAcon .448 · EV 92.1 · Brl 10.0% · 30 BBE

▲ .147 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.274	9	20	15	0
L14	.421	2	3	3	0

Connor Norby

3B · Col · 2.4% own · xwOBAcon .496 · EV 87.9 · Brl 17.4% · 23 BBE

▲ .140 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.235	7	30	34	8
L14	.375	1	4	7	0

Randal Grichuk

RF · ChW · 0.5% own · xwOBAcon .466 · EV 94.0 · Brl 4.2% · 24 BBE

▲ .129 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.290	13	39	35	0
L14	.419	2	5	3	0

Moises Ballesteros

C · LAA · 1.8% own · xwOBAcon .400 · EV 90.3 · Brl 8.0% · 25 BBE

▲ .186 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.228	9	34	24	1
L14	.414	2	5	2	0

Mickey Gasper

C · Bos · 10.2% own · xwOBAcon .369 · EV 90.9 · Brl 13.6% · 22 BBE

▼ .087 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.266	9	23	25	0
L14	.179	2	2	4	0

Honorable mention · hottest L7 (9/10–9/16), not yet on the board · tiny samples — peek, don't trust

Drew Gilbert

RF · SF

.546 xwOBAcon

9 BBE · .250 L7

Michael Arroyo

2B · Sea

.549 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .444 L7

Pavin Smith

1B · Ari

.465 xwOBAcon

10 BBE · .333 L7

Brady House

3B · Wsh

.367 xwOBAcon

10 BBE · .167 L7

Andres Chaparro

1B · Wsh

.489 xwOBAcon

9 BBE · .333 L7

Colt Keith

1B · Det

.346 xwOBAcon

9 BBE · .300 L7

🎯 FA Pitchers — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Andres Munoz

1Andrew SearsSP · Det · 0.2%HEATER

88th-percentile suppression on 31 BBE trusted sample; best contact-quality allowed in field

Supp 88 · 31 BBE · ATC 4.0 IP · 0 W · 4 K · 4.36 · 1.36 · PL #11 · sim -0.1 pts

2Rico Garcia

RP · Bal · 11.1% · CATEGORY FIT

Closer role confirmed, SV gap is live at +5 above, Garcia is cleanest ratio closer available

Supp 75 · 14 BBE · ATC 4.0 IP · 0 W · 4 K · 4.22 · 1.30 · 1 SV · Closer · sim -0.1 pts

3Dylan Smith

RP · SF · 0.4% · CATEGORY FIT

Closer role confirmed, 1 projected SV, 18-BBE suppression credible, ratios won't bleed ERA/WHIP

Supp 62 · 18 BBE · ATC 4.0 IP · 0 W · 4 K · 3.84 · 1.31 · 1 SV · Closer · sim -0.1 pts

4Cody Bradford

SP · Tex · 1.4% · BEST VALUE

Best projected WHIP (1.21) of SP field; 2 GS volume helps Ws chase, ratios safe

Supp 57 · 15 BBE · ATC 11.0 IP · 1 W · 8 K · 4.36 · 1.21 · PL #9 · sim -0.1 pts

5Steven Cruz

RP · KC · 1.4% · UPSIDE

Closer role confirmed, 1 projected SV; 13-BBE suppression sub-threshold but ratios clean enough

Supp 62 · 13 BBE · ATC 4.0 IP · 0 W · 4 K · 4.24 · 1.31 · 1 SV · Closer · sim -0.1 pts

Passed on: Dustin May ranked #5 by Pitcher List but L14 suppression is 26th percentile on 25 BBE — that's a trusted bad sample threatening ERA/WHIP ranks MIZ must protect at rank 2.

⚾ Pitcher List Rankings

PL Top 100 SP · your arms + top FAs.

On Pitcher List · 6 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Pitcher	MLB	Chg	ERA	xERA	K/9	RoS	Pollack’s Take
1	Jacob Misiorowski	MIL	-	1.89	2.08	13.1	3.40	Like a base set Charizard, Misiorowski’s not gonna stop being dope.
9	Blake Snell	LAD	+7	1.86	2.15	12.1	3.31	#HotSnellSummer is in full swing.
10	Dylan Cease	TOR	-1	2.38	2.79	12.8	3.45	Like a perfect burger without the condiments to hit all your macros, Cease gives you everything except for a stable WHIP due to his infla…
20	Kyle Harrison	MIL	+8	3.98	3.85	10.9	4.19	With a dominant outing, he muted our concerns, but Harrison’s still displaying decreased velocity and not commanding as well as he did in…
22	Eury Pérez	MIA	-4	3.99	4.10	9.7	3.91	Pérez has the stuff to be an ace, but there’s polishing to do in the command and game plan departments to unlock his full potential.
29	Sean Burke	CHW	-4	3.47	3.82	9.7	4.43	Burke’s hot streak has come to a brief pause, but he’s still doing everything he’s supposed to with elite four-seamers upstairs and suppo…
30	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	-4	3.84	3.90	6.5	4.17	Baseball’s premier innings eater hasn’t ruined his appetite.
38	Jacob Lopez	ATH	+6	5.02	3.50	8.4	4.55	It’s the 2025 hot streak all over again. Enjoy the ride, ya’ll!
39	Dustin May	MIL	-	4.49	4.24	8.7	4.18	May got Singled Out in a disastrous performance, but his stuff is still dope, and his new situation is ideal. Higher win chance, great de…
43	Andrew Painter	PHI	+UR	5.54	4.55	7.8	4.71	From off The List to inside the Top 50, Painter has stolen our hearts with an improved heater (97+ mph with 17-18″ iVB) and emphasis on r…
45	Peter Lambert	HOU	-4	3.71	3.69	8.7	4.61	Lambert’s stumble last time was a product of being Singled Out . He’s been reliable all year, but we should be recognizing that Holly is …
46	Jared Jones	PIT	-8	4.17	3.43	10.8	3.97	The stuff is top-tier, but he’s still shaking off the Tommy John surgery rust with his command and the tight leash the Pirates have on hi…
54	Joey Cantillo	CLE	-8	3.89	4.16	9.9	4.05	Efficiency is a problem, but Cantillo is doing everything we want. More curveballs, faster fastballs, and supportive cutters. Throw more …
56	Shane Bieber	TOR	+14	4.37	5.96	7.1	4.05	Bieber is back in business. His heater looked awesome in The Trop, and his offspeed pitches are being the CSW monsters they need to be to…
58	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	-	3.77	3.87	6.1	4.67	Despite what the line suggests, Pfaadt’s last start wasn’t an end to his Vargas Rule . It was a textbook Careful, Icarus with a three-run…
59	Christian Scott	NYM	+1	3.76	3.69	10.9	4.04	Scott has been happy to show us his floor, but the stuff is still there to propel him up The List at a moment’s notice. It’s felt a littl…

🔒 Closer Chart

Save targets · roles + regression flags.

BLUEEntrenched closer (highest leverage)GREENNext man up / committee pieceYELLOWSetup, 8th-inning leverageORANGESpeculative / lower priorityMAGENTAHigh-upside future / multi-inning

	Pitcher	Tm	Role	SV	SVHD	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K/9	Rtg / Own
Yours on the chart
—	Andrés Muñoz	Seattle Mariners	CL	27	27	56.0	4.18	1.20	3.28	14.0	5.0 · —
—	Louis Varland	Toronto Blue Jays	CL	34	39	76.0	1.30	1.00	2.30	11.2	5.0 · —
Top 5 FA closers (by team rating)
—	Rico Garcia	Baltimore Orioles	CL	9	27	64.3	2.94	0.96	2.93	9.1	4.0 · 11%
	Dylan Smith	San Francisco Giants	CL	4	11	36.0	3.50	1.47	3.98	10.5	4.0 · 0%
—	Steven Cruz HLR	Kansas City Royals	CL	7	12	56.7	4.13	1.25	3.96	9.8	3.5 · 1%
	Ryan Zeferjahn	Chicago Cubs	CL	6	19	67.0	4.03	1.28	3.18	12.2	3.0 · 1%
	Michael Petersen b2b	Miami Marlins	CL	1	26	61.3	3.08	1.11	3.43	10.9	3.0 · 2%

ERA cell: green <3.00 · red >4.50. xERA arrow: ↓ ERA likely to fall (buy) · ↑ ERA likely to rise (sell). Triggers when |xERA−ERA| ≥ 1.00.

✂️ Cut List

Drop priority · value, form, pedigree, role.

51	Royce Lewis 3B · Min low TV (17) sim cost ~0	TV 17 Rd 13
45	Jared Jones SP · Pit low TV (19); UFDA — easy to drop; BUT solid keeper sim cost ~0	TV 19 UFDA
23	Blake Snell SP · LAD mid TV (55); injury status: DTD; BUT strong RoS (3.31 ERA) sim cost ~0	TV 55 Rd 8
22	Sandy Alcantara SP · Mia mid TV (58); BUT solid keeper sim cost ~0	TV 58 Rd 14
15	Thomas Saggese 2B · StL UFDA — easy to drop; weak RoS (83 wRC+) sim cost ~0	TV 100 UFDA

Higher score = drop sooner — top 5 by score, and only 8+ reaches the board, so the number has no ceiling and is only comparable within this list. The sim line is a roto-sim marginal (cut vs. keep on one shared set of draws), not a measured cost. Pedigree + named closers shielded.

🌱 Stash List

PL's top prospects · grab them cheap.

Hitters

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 24: Top 10 Hitting Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + PSS + PFV + age + 40-man + path.

19 available

M. Arroyo

SS · SEA · AAA · 21 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

19·18·.284

S. Thompson

OF · COL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

15·21·.309

J. Tibbs III

OF · LAD · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

29·10·.289

J. Long

1B · CHC · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

16·3·.276

M. Anderson

2B · DET · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

17·5·.301

R. Clifford

1B · NYM · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

18·8·.182

C. Ingle

C · CLE · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

20·2·.279

Z. Hope

OF · DET · AA · 21 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

29·26·.287

R. Ward

LF · LAD · AAA · 28 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

21·8·.246

C. Cannarella

OF · MIA · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

15·21·.331

S. King

SS/2B/3B · WSN · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

20·15·.305

B. Davidson

OF · SFG · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

September

Szn

28·19·.284

S. Walcott

3B/SS · TEX · AA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

10·12·.329

K. Alderman

OF · MIA · AAA · 23 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

18·10·.249

E. Arroyo

SS · CIN · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

15·14·.279

D. Crisantes

2B/3B · ARI · AAA · 21 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

10·0·.293

J. Made

SS · MIL · AA · 19 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

14·37·.271

T. Troy

SS · ARI · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

8·8·.275

R. Velazquez

1B/C · CLE · AA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

29·2·.289

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

Pitchers

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 24: Top 10 Pitching Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + L3 quality + FV + age + 40-man + path.

26 available

O. Murphy

SP · ATL · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

129K·3.70

T. Johnson

SP · TBR · AAA · 24 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

89K·3.17

B. Hopkins

SP · TBR · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

123K·5.31

B. Mautz

SP · STL · AAA · 24 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

104K·4.27

H. Smith

SP · CHW · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

August 1st

Szn

121K·3.40

M. Ullola

SP · HOU · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

100K·4.12

L. Perales

SP · WSN · AAA · 23 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

108K·4.10

A. Kelly

SP · PIT · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

80K·4.34

C. Seymour

SP · SFG · AAA · 27 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

89K·4.12

K. Curtis

SP · PIT · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

115K·4.93

R. Snelling

SP · MIA · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

46K·2.38

D. Davalillo

SP · TEX · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

106K·4.62

J. Wenninger

SP · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

122K·4.21

M. Bratt

SP · ARI · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

84K·3.88

G. Wood

SP · PHI · AA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

'26

Szn

139K·4.36

T. Bremner

SP · LAA · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

100K·4.33

E. Rodriguez

SP · NYY · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

126K·3.05

T. McDougal

SP · CHW · AAA · 23 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

51K·4.98

B. Garrett

SP · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

June 1st

Szn

114K·3.76

R. Ryan

SP · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

47K·4.39

C. Dana

SP · LAA · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

85K·5.52

R. Sloan

SP · SEA · AA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

128K·3.73

C. Lagrange

SP · NYY · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

July 1st

Szn

85K·4.48

C. Crow

SP · MIL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

106K·3.95

T. Gibson

SP · BAL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

107K·5.26

L. Braun

SP · ATL · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

112K·4.18

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

🔭 14 not a 2026 factor — Jackson Ferris · Anthony Eyanson · Jurrangelo Cijntje · Liam Doyle · Christian Zazueta · Jamie Arnold · Jackson Wolf · Bryce Mayer · Daniel Eagen · David Hagaman · Jonathan Santucci · Joseph Dzierwa · Jaxon Wiggins · Karson Milbrandt

💼 Trades

Buy-low targets · league trade history.

Top Buy-Lows

Rebound candidates · suggested offers.

Hitters

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Juan Soto RF · NYM · GARR · jregarris +1.2σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.271 / xBA 0.294 · xwOBA 0.412	100%	158 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Kyle Schwarber DH · comparable value (TV 100 vs target 100)
📈 BUY-LOW	JJ Bleday CF · Cin · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.2σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.213 / xBA 0.238 · xwOBA 0.339	20%	100 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Cole Carrigg CF · comparable value (TV 12 vs target 17)
↑ mild buy	Taylor Ward LF · Sea · GoOs · My Best Guys +0.7σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.222 / xBA 0.240 · xwOBA 0.333	56%	120 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Sandy Alcantara SP · comparable value (TV 58 vs target 60)
📈 BUY-LOW	Heriberto Hernandez LF · Mia · FRAN · francisw789 +1.1σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.232 / xBA 0.247 · xwOBA 0.350	8%	99 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Henry Bolte RF + +$4 FAAB · comparable value (TV 15 vs target 23)
↑ mild buy	Ian Happ LF · ChC · FRAN · francisw789 +0.8σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.219 / xBA 0.208 · xwOBA 0.317	69%	109 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 35 vs target 41)
↑ mild buy	Kyle Stowers LF · Mia · KNIG · TKHOO +0.7σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.239 / xBA 0.224 · xwOBA 0.324	27%	111 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Jared Jones SP + +$4 FAAB · comparable value (TV 19 vs target 27)
↑ mild buy	Dominic Canzone RF · Sea · GARR · jregarris +0.5σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.257 / xBA 0.268 · xwOBA 0.353	12%	114 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 35 vs target 34)
↑ mild buy	Jarren Duran LF · Bos · RAGE · glhoward40 +0.8σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.204 / xBA 0.233 · xwOBA 0.297	65%	100 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Eury Perez SP + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 50 vs target 57)
↑ mild buy	Heliot Ramos LF · NYY · DORN · Lambertmt48 +0.6σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.243 / xBA 0.256 · xwOBA 0.328	9%	104 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Cole Carrigg CF · comparable value (TV 12 vs target 17)
📈 BUY-LOW	Cal Raleigh C · Sea · KNIG · TKHOO +1.7σ buy-low · C — modest fit · BA 0.182 / xBA 0.191 · xwOBA 0.313	85%	128 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Miguel Vargas 3B · comparable value (TV 77 vs target 82)

Pitchers

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Kodai Senga SP · NYM · KRTZ · FratSkins +1.1σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 7.05 vs xERA 5.16	11%	3.88 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Cole Carrigg CF · comparable value (TV 12 vs target 14)
↑ mild buy	Kade Anderson SP · Sea · RAGE · glhoward40 +0.7σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 5.33 vs xERA 4.24	18%	4.61 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Cole Carrigg CF · comparable value (TV 12 vs target 16)

League History

Completed trades · frozen grade at the deal + live grade now.

Side	Sent	At deal	Now	Trend
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Andy Pages	A- +7	A+ +46	▲ up
Camp MVP	Pete Crow-Armstrong	C -7	F -46	▼ down
Team Knighton ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Team Knighton	Matthew Boyd	F -22	F -23
Camp MVP	Kenley Jansen	A+ +22	A+ +23
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Worst2First 2026-08-10
Miz-waukee’s Best	Charlie Condon, Payton Tolle	A+ +50	A+ +32	▼ down
Worst2First	Dylan Cease	F -50	F -32	▲ up
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Dorn and Associates LLC 2026-08-05
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Travis Bazzana, George Lombard Jr., Nolan McLean	A+ +144	A+ +106	▼ down
Dorn and Associates LLC	Jackson Chourio, Jhoan Duran, Brice Turang, David Bednar	F -144	F -106	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-07-31
Miz-waukee’s Best	Samuel Basallo, Kade Anderson	A- +8	A- +7
Ramirez Against the Machine	Blake Snell	C -8	C -7
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Team Knighton 2026-07-23
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Jo Adell, Jacob deGrom	F -49	F -64	▼ down
Team Knighton	Trea Turner	A+ +49	A+ +64	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine ⇄ Miz-waukee’s Best 2026-07-19
Ramirez Against the Machine	Sandy Alcantara	F -42	F -29	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best	Josh Jung	A+ +42	A+ +29	▼ down
I need Buck Showalter ⇄ Hit the Damn Ball You Bums 2026-06-19
I need Buck Showalter	Nasim Nunez	A+ +28	A +11	▼ down
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Justin Wrobleski	F -28	D -11	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ The Boys of Summer 2026-06-12
Miz-waukee’s Best	Chandler Simpson	A +10	A- +7	▼ down
The Boys of Summer	$30 FAAB	D -10	C -7	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-05-01
Miz-waukee’s Best	Kenley Jansen	—	A- +7
Camp MVP	$30 FAAB	A- +3	C -7	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-04-22
Miz-waukee’s Best	Nathan Eovaldi, $70 FAAB	—	F -41
Ramirez Against the Machine	Jac Caglianone	A+ +60	A+ +41	▼ down

🔻 Sell-High — My Roster

Surface line outrunning the underlying skill — trade-value peaks. σ = his surface-stat z-score minus his Statcast-skill z-score, both against the league reference for his side — bigger σ = further ahead of the skill. Pair with Buy-Low Targets.

Verdict	Player	Own	Surface vs expected	Contact	2027 keeper
↓ SHOP	Cole Carrigg CF · Col 0.62σ sell-high · CF · BA 0.266 / xBA 0.246 · xwOBA 0.313 — test the market, don't force it	14%	BA 0.266 / xBA 0.246 +.020 wOBA 0.345 / xwOBA 0.313 +.032	HH 36.2% · Brl/PA 3.6%	25th · +5 rds vs mkt
↓ SHOP	Yandy Diaz 1B · TB 0.57σ sell-high · 1B · BA 0.297 / xBA 0.284 · xwOBA 0.350 — test the market, don't force it	93%	BA 0.297 / xBA 0.284 +.013 wOBA 0.355 / xwOBA 0.350 +.005	HH 48.5% · Brl/PA 5.5%	7th · +1 rd vs mkt
↓ SHOP	Henry Bolte RF · Oak 0.51σ sell-high · RF · BA 0.275 / xBA 0.246 · xwOBA 0.318 — test the market, don't force it	12%	BA 0.275 / xBA 0.246 +.029 wOBA 0.339 / xwOBA 0.318 +.021	HH 47.8% · Brl/PA 4.9%	25th · +5 rds vs mkt

👥 Your Roster

Your roster · news + buy/sell signals.

News (last 24h)

Player news · last 24h.

Jacob Misiorowski 2026 MLB Awards Watch: MVP, Cy Young and more for September
Thu 09-17 02:55 PM
Last chance for the candidates to make their case for MLB's biggest postseason awards.
Sandy Alcantara Sandy Alcantara earns 1st career save as Marlins beat D-backs
Thu 09-17 12:28 PM
Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara earned his first career save Wednesday night at Arizona, two days after throwing 101 pitches in a no-decision.
Blake Snell Dodgers' Blake Snell (groin) exits vs. Reds after one inning
Thu 09-17 12:27 PM
Dodgers left-hander Blake Snell left his start Wednesday night against the Reds after an inning because of left groin tightness.
Blake Snell Fantasy baseball news: Snell's early exit causes concern and more for Thursday
Thu 09-17 11:52 AM
All of the important fantasy spin and actionable takeaways resulting from the latest baseball news.
Sandy Alcantara Marlins hold off Diamondbacks 4-3 with Sandy Alcantara getting 1st career save
Thu 09-17 06:30 AM
— Jakob Marsee hit a two-run homer and Sandy Alcantara earned his first career save as the Miami Marlins held off the Arizona...

Leverage Buys/Sells

Buy/sell windows · surface vs. underlying.

Hitters

Player	Pos	MLB	BA	xBA	wOBA	xwOBA	Brl%	Own%	Signal
James Wood	LF	Wsh	0.265	0.274	0.389	0.412	100.0	99.0	📈 BUY-LOW
Kyle Schwarber	DH	Phi	0.237	0.239	0.371	0.365	98.0	99.5	📈 BUY-LOW
Miguel Vargas	3B	ChW	0.249	0.266	0.360	0.379	89.0	94.9	📈 BUY-LOW
Bryce Eldridge	1B	SF	0.269	0.260	0.361	0.359	75.0	14.3	↑ mild buy
Jac Caglianone	RF	KC	0.278	0.278	0.351	0.353	90.0	44.9	fair
Zach Neto	SS	LAA	0.243	0.215	0.335	0.311	75.0	61.3	fair
Randy Arozarena	LF	Sea	0.278	0.258	0.373	0.346	51.0	94.1	fair
Cole Carrigg	CF	Col	0.266	0.246	0.345	0.313	27.0	14.2	↓ mild fade
Walker Jenkins	CF	Min	0.089	0.152	0.200	0.244	—	3.9	fair
Henry Bolte	RF	Oak	0.275	0.246	0.339	0.318	54.0	11.7	↓ mild fade
Yandy Diaz	1B	TB	0.297	0.284	0.355	0.350	46.0	92.7	↓ mild fade
Kaelen Culpepper IL10	SS	Min	0.275	0.245	0.326	0.298	—	4.0	fair
Royce Lewis	3B	Min	0.228	0.239	0.297	0.311	73.0	11.9	↑ mild buy
Emmanuel Rodriguez	CF	Min	0.263	0.362	0.369	0.480	—	0.9	—
Leo Bernal	C	StL	0.295	0.303	0.360	0.378	—	4.0	fair
Victor Mesa Jr.	LF	TB	0.252	0.253	0.352	0.335	—	16.3	fair
Thomas Saggese	2B	StL	0.267	0.252	0.315	0.319	—	10.5	fair

Pitchers

Pitcher	Pos	MLB	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K-BB%	xwOBA-a	Brl%-a	Own%	Signal
Andres Munoz	RP	Sea	56.0	4.18	1.20	3.28	27.4	0.281	8.9	79.7	↑ mild buy
Jared Jones	SP	Pit	90.7	4.17	1.19	3.43	20.5	0.287	7.6	26.2	↑ mild buy
Blake Snell DTD	SP	LAD	38.7	1.86	1.09	2.15	22.9	0.228	1.1	86.9	↑ mild buy
Joe Ryan	SP	Min	133.7	4.24	1.17	3.66	20.7	0.296	10.2	86.9	fair
Jacob Misiorowski	SP	Mil	166.3	1.89	0.81	2.08	31.6	0.224	3.8	99.2	fair
Sandy Alcantara	SP	Mia	206.0	3.84	1.23	3.90	10.6	0.305	5.7	82.3	fair
Dylan Cease	SP	Tor	166.3	2.38	1.06	2.79	24.6	0.260	5.3	99.3	fair
Eury Perez	SP	Mia	144.3	3.99	1.24	4.10	15.1	0.312	10.2	68.0	fair
Louis Varland	RP	Tor	76.0	1.30	1.00	2.30	24.3	0.236	3.8	85.6	fair

📰 MLB News — Top Fantasy Stories

🔒 Keepers — 2027 Slate

Peter's model (additive): rounds-saved (cost arbitrage spine) + current skill + career-grade pedigree + sample stability + Statcast over/under-performance trend, with age-decline (33+), closer/RP, and top-30 talent adjustments. Heavy on bargain-hunting.
Claude's model (multiplicative dynasty index): EFV(2027) = (3 + skill + upside) × age_mult × pos_mult; score = EFV − cost_replacement − mookie-lock. Compounds age curve and position scarcity.
Sorted by consensus rank (average of both models). MLB-inactive players surfaced in 🚑 Return Watch below.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict	Notes
1.5	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	21st	#2 (+24.5)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51	UFDA-G FV 55
2.0	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	25th	#1 (+25.3)	#3 (+21.2)	S · $21	UFDA
2.5	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	22nd	#3 (+21.6)	#2 (+27.1)	S · $27
4.0	Bryce Eldridge	1B · 20yo	25th	#4 (+16.2)	#4 (+14.4)	A · $14	UFDA FV 55
5.0	Henry Bolte	RF · 21yo	25th	#5 (+14.9)	#5 (+14.4)	A · $14	UFDA FV 40
6.5	Eury Perez	SP · 23yo	20th	#6 (+13.6)	#7 (+11.2)	A · $11	UFDA-G
6.5	Dylan Cease	SP · 30yo	4th	#7 (+12.0)	#6 (+11.7)	A · $12
8.0	Zach Neto	SS · 25yo	10th	#8 (+11.9)	#8 (+10.3)	A · $10

NEW UFDA cap: Peter 3/3 · Claude 3/3 · BOTH = top 8 in both models. Peter only = his model values cost surplus more; Claude only = mine values projection / position scarcity more.

🚑 Return watch — would be keeper-eligible if they get MLB action this year. Rank shown is hypothetical (where they'd slot if eligible).

Player	Pos · Age	Cost	Peter (if elig.)	Claude (if elig.)
Emmanuel Rodriguez	CF · 22yo	25th	#18 (-2.0)	#13 (+1.1)

Updated Thu Sep 17 · 11:34 AM ET

🌍 League-Wide Top Keepers

Top 10 keepers · all 12 teams · both models. Yours in green.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	Team	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict
1.5	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	MIZ	21st	#2 (+24.5)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51
3.0	Bryan Baker	RP · 31yo	DORN	25th	#3 (+24.2)	#3 (+38.7)	S · $39
5.5	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	MIZ	25th	#1 (+25.3)	#10 (+21.2)	S · $21
5.5	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	MIZ	22nd	#7 (+21.6)	#4 (+27.1)	S · $27
5.5	Cam Schlittler	SP · 24yo	KRTZ	19th	#9 (+19.7)	#2 (+40.8)	S · $41
7.5	Jordan Walker	RF · 24yo	GARR	25th	#4 (+24.0)	— (+21.2)	S · $21
8.0	Payton Tolle	SP · 22yo	FRST	25th	#5 (+23.4)	— (+19.8)	S · $20
8.0	Cade Cavalli	SP · 26yo	FRAN	21st	— (+18.6)	#5 (+26.1)	S · $26
8.5	Logan Henderson	SP · 23yo	PEYT	25th	#6 (+21.9)	— (+17.1)	A · $17
8.5	Gavin Williams	SP · 26yo	THAR	11th	— (+13.9)	#6 (+23.6)	S · $24
9.0	Junior Caminero	3B · 22yo	RAGE	5th	— (+12.3)	#7 (+23.3)	S · $23
9.5	Jose Soriano	SP · 27yo	BLOB	25th	#8 (+20.3)	— (+17.1)	A · $17
9.5	Parker Messick	SP · 24yo	GARR	18th	— (+16.4)	#8 (+23.0)	S · $23
10.0	Riley O'Brien	RP · 31yo	THAR	17th	— (+11.4)	#9 (+21.9)	S · $22
10.5	Ben Rice	1B · 27yo	DORN	20th	#10 (+19.3)	— (+12.6)	A · $13

Updated Thu Sep 17 · 11:34 AM ET

🏚️ Keeper Cupboards

Every team's six best keepers · shade = dual-model consensus value. Cupboard score weights the top four heavily (the slots that get kept), keepers 5–8 taper. 100 = league's best cupboard.

Team	K1	K2	K3	K4	K5	K6	Cupboard
1MIZ	MisiorowskiR21	VargasR25	VarlandR22	EldridgeR25	BolteR25	PerezR20	100
2DORN	BakerR25	RiceR20	McLeanR20	BazzanaR25	AnthonyR18	LaraR25	75
3KRTZ	SchlittlerR19	BengeR25	McGonigleR17	SanojaR25	StewartR10	MahleR23	66
4FRAN	LatzR25	CavalliR21	McCarthyR25	AntonacciR25	BurnsR5	LoweR8	65
5PEYT	SanchezR9	HendersonR25	WooR8	ClarkR22	CameronR18	CruzR1	60
6GoOs	GriffinR25	BradleyR25	GoodmanR21	BurlesonR9	BaldwinR14	WachaR25	59
7THAR	WilliamsR11	RasmussenR8	O'BrienR17	KeaschallR21	Jr.R16	MarshR25	56
8KNIG	deGromR13	AbreuR15	MartinezR25	JensenR20	RodriguezR25	ChapmanR11	53
9BLOB	SorianoR25	LopezR20	ScottR25	LileR15	PagesR20	SaleR1	53
10RAGE	EwingR25	CamineroR5	HerreraR20	ImanagaR9	JonesR25	BasalloR19	51
11GARR ▼ thin	WalkerR25	MessickR18	GrayR7	CanzoneR25	SimpsonR9	GoreR8	48
12FRST ▼ thin	TolleR25	WheelerR8	MuncyR18	SkubalR1	RumfieldR25	RouppR25	43

The bottom two rows are your trade marks — thin cupboards pay up for keepable pieces.

data: snap 4h · BP 23d · PL 23d · HL 20d · PSS 7h · BR 0h · FG 7h · proj 24h · closer 0h · oyster 7h · AAA-sc 13h · cookie ok