Miz-waukee’s Best — The Brandon League

Last updated Saturday, August 29 · 04:20 AM ET

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Any player in the league universe · tap a result for the card.

☕ Morning Briefing

🏆 MIZ sits at 106.0 roto points, a commanding 24.5 ahead of 2nd-place Hit the Damn Ball You Bums — but watch your SV category, where KRTZ is just 3 saves back.

⚾ Strong day for your bats and one arm: Yandy Diaz (2-5, HR, 2 RBI), Bryce Eldridge (2-5, HR, 2 RBI), and Pedro Ramirez (1-4, HR, 3 RBI) all went deep, while Dylan Cease was sharp against the Mariners — 6 IP, 1 ER, 8 K, W. The only blemish: Eury Perez got lit up for 5 ER in 3.0 IP. With Sandy Alcantara and Blake Snell both toeing the rubber tonight, confirm they're active.

📊 On the wire, two early-signal contact heaters to watch: Colton Cowser and Drew Cavanaugh both show 88/99 L7 contact heat (xwOBAcon of 0.534 and 0.700 respectively), though both are small-sample and not yet on the Heat Board. More actionable: Andrew Kittredge (BAL, confirmed closer) projects the best single-add roto sim at +1.0 pts with 2 SV projected and a 1.21 WHIP — directly addressing your SV vulnerability. Justin Crawford (PHI) is the top SB target at +0.5 pts sim and 5 projected steals, squarely hitting your only live category gap vs. THAR. Nick Sogard, freshly dropped by Photogenic Nick Kurtz, is also a free agent if you want a high-floor floor add.

📰 Edwin Arroyo has been recalled by Cincinnati from Louisville, an available FA worth a look in deeper formats given his prospect pedigree at 2B. The Cardinals also activated Thomas Saggese from Memphis — he's available and worth monitoring for multi-position eligibility potential as his role develops.

ELIGIBILITYC. Carrigg SS ✓K. Schwarber 1B 6/10P. Ramirez 1B 4/10

Your standing

1stof 12

106.0 roto pts +24.5 clear of 2nd

no change vs last update

Top Gaps

SB (7.0) W (8.0)

categories below mid-pack

🎯 Category Pressure

Category ranks vs. the league.

Rank →

Δ to #1

902

983

🥇

262

288

🥇

RBI

843

869

🥇

126

131

136

190

+59

AVG

.254

.256

.257

.259

+0.003

1130

1164

1274

+110

+10

+11

ERA

3.41

3.19

🥇

WHIP

1.17

1.11

🥇

📅 Yesterday's MIZ Box Scores (2026-08-28)

Loading box scores…

🏥 IL Rehab Tracker

IL players · rehab game logs.

On the IL, no rehab games yet: James Wood (IL10), Joe Ryan (IL15), Spencer Schwellenbach (IL60 · watch).

📊 League Activity (last 24h)

All adds, drops, and trades across the 12 teams.

Team	Move
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	+ Javier Sanoja \| − Nick Sogard
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	+ David Peterson \| − Hayden Wesneski
Phil Swift's Flex Seal	+ Jakob Marsee \| − Jonah Cox
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	+ Andrew Painter \| − Sean Manaea
Miz-waukee’s Best	− Franklin Arias

🏆 League Standings

Current roto points · 10,000-sim projected finish. FAAB = acquisition budget remaining.

100.0% to win the league · proj finish 1.0 · 103.2 roto pts

#	Team	Pts	FAAB	Win%	Proj Pts	Range	Proj Rk
1	MIZ Miz-waukee’s Best	106.0	$0	100.0%	103.2	99–107	1.0
2	FRAN Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	81.5	$74	0.0%	86.3	80–93	2.2
3	PEYT Phil Swift's Flex Seal	78.5	$34	0.0%	79.1	73–86	3.4
4	KRTZ Photogenic Nick Kurtz	75.5	$29	0.0%	79.4	73–86	3.4
5	GoOs I need Buck Showalter	74.0	$170	0.0%	71.1	65–77	5.1
6	BLOB Camp MVP	68.5	$168	0.0%	69.2	65–73	5.6
7	THAR Phil Mickeltits	61.5	$176	0.0%	58.4	52–64	7.4
8	KNIG Team Knighton	57.0	$137	0.0%	55.6	49–61	8.0
9	GARR The Boys of Summer	51.5	$155	0.0%	53.4	48–59	8.5
10	RAGE Ramirez Against the Machine	43.0	$163	0.0%	37.3	33–42	11.8
11	DORN Dorn and Associates LLC	41.5	$89	0.0%	42.4	38–47	10.7
12	FRST Worst2First	41.5	$154	0.0%	44.7	40–50	10.2

10,000 sims · fixed seed · noise CV talent 0.12 / idio 0.06 / team-cat 0.08 · assumes ATC rest-of-season rates

Your categories · projected roto points

R 12.0HR 12.0RBI 11.5SB 7.2AVG 8.8W 7.8SV 9.0K 10.8ERA 12.0WHIP 12.0

Winnable — push here: SB, AVG, W, SV.

🚨 Today's Streaming Board

150 of 200 GS · should be 169 · 19 behindBehind pace — stream aggressively

050 left · ~12.1/wk to cap · proj 178200

⏳ BP's post is late — Verdict pill is running on our score + Pitcher List for now (BP joins the top-2 once it posts).

Your starters + top FA streamers

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Sandy Alcantara	@ WSH	AUTO START	—	5.7	#3	Weak Nationals lineup is a favorable cakewalk.
Blake Snell	@ DET	AUTO START	—	8.1	#1	Elite ace, start without hesitation.
Cal Quantrill	@ MIL	DART⚠ opener	—	5.7	#11	Hot stretch warrants following momentum trend.
Cristian Javier	@ NYM	DART	—	—	#14	Whiff rate present but results still lagging behind.
Jake Bennett	@ NYY	DART	—	5.3	#18	Declining strikeouts and command erode streaming appeal.
Brayan Bello	@ NYY	DARTopener	—	—	#15	Opener likely; follower role limits volume but boosts Win odds.
Martin Perez	vs COL	SIT	—	4.2	#19	Coors context still offers cheap Win upside.
Walker Buehler	@ TB	SIT	—	5.2	#23	Recent improvement insufficient to overcome trust deficit.
Keider Montero	vs LAD	SIT	—	5.3	#28	Elevated WHIP gets punished hard against Dodgers.
Jack Perkins	vs BAL	SIT⚠ opener	—	4.8	#25	High-risk 'Sacré Verde' profile; untrustworthy.
Kyle Leahy	vs PIT	SITleash	—	4.0	#22	Cardinals-imposed innings limit kills streaming value.
Mitch Bratt	@ SF	SIT	—	4.3	#27	Even favorable Oracle Park can't rescue mediocre profile.

Openers filtered: Lake Bachar, Bennett Sousa, Daniel Lynch IV

Your staff: 3.19 ERA / 1.11 WHIP · GS 150/200 — Behind pace — stream aggressively. Verdict = the best 2 of BP · our score · Pitcher List, averaged (low outlier dropped); before BP posts it's our score + PL. ⚠ = our matchup score dissented — eyeball that one. Tap a MIZ score for the reasoning.

Tomorrow · top 5 FA · Sun 8/30 · BP not out yet, so pill = our score + Pitcher List

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Janson Junk	@ WSH	DART	—	4.8	—	tough WSH lineup, hot recent form
Zebby Matthews	vs CWS	DART	—	4.7	—	tough CWS lineup, hot recent form, hitter park
Zac Thornton	vs HOU	DART	—	4.5	—	average HOU lineup
Mason Adams	@ ATL	DART	—	4.3	—	tough ATL lineup, hitter park
Dustin May	vs TEX	SIT	—	4.1	—	average TEX lineup, shaky recent form, short leash

📼 Streamer Report Card

Does the Streaming Board actually work? Every pick it showed, frozen at pick time and graded off the real box score. Two scoreboards below: first our own calls — the Verdict ladder and MIZ (our matchup score, 0–10) — then the outside lists behind them, BP (RelieverRecon's daily BP Streamers post) and PL (Pitcher List's tier ranking). Grades are recomputed from raw lines on every build — the rubric can change, the history follows.

Last 30d · 343 starts graded over 29 days · GOOD+ 50% · BLOWUP 17% · agg ERA 4.23 · WHIP 1.33 · 4.4 K/start · 369 picks logged, 14 never started, 12 awaiting a box score — not graded

Grade mix · all 343 graded starts

GEM 69 GOOD 104 OK 112 BLOWUP 58

GEM6+ IP, ≤1 ER · or 6+ IP, 8+ K, ≤2 ERGOODquality start (6+ IP, ≤3 ER) · or 5+ IP, ≤2 EROKheld the line without earning GOODBLOWUP5+ ER · or under 4 IP with 4+ ERGOOD+ = GEM + GOOD. A pick whose starter never took the ball grades to nothing and leaves every rate below.

Cohort	n	GOOD+	BLOWUP	ERA
Q1 — Do our own calls work? · Verdict ladder + MIZ bands · live board rows only, nothing backfilled
Verdict · AUTO START	25	72%	12%	3.21
Verdict · START	45	60%	7%	3.45
Verdict · DART	96	47%	16%	4.52
Verdict · SIT	177	47%	21%	4.43
MIZ ≥ 5.0	121	60%	14%	3.68
MIZ 3.5–4.9	121	49%	17%	4.53
MIZ < 3.5	85	40%	21%	4.82
All live board picks	343	50%	17%	4.23
Q1 read — the ladder has not separated: GOOD+ runs 72% · 60% · 47% · 47% down the rungs, and MIZ sorts: GOOD+ falls 60% · 49% · 40% from the top band down.
Q2 — Which outside list earns the weight? · BP and PL graded on their own published lists · mostly rebuilt from git
PL · Auto Start	22	77%	9%	3.09
PL · Probably Start	38	58%	16%	4.14
PL · Questionable Start	89	51%	15%	4.23
PL · Do Not Start	168	49%	21%	4.36
BP · Auto	12	33%	8%	4.53
BP · Likely	51	49%	18%	4.24
All graded picks	343	50%	17%	4.23
Q2 read — against the 50% all-picks baseline, PL's top tiers clear it (77% · 58%) and BP's top tiers are too thin to call (33% · 49% on n=12 · n=51).

Rows are overlapping lenses on the same picks, not a partition — one start can be a PL Auto Start and a Verdict SIT at once, so they never sum to the headline; each group is read against its own baseline row.

⚠ Dissent check — the override is ahead so far — 67% GOOD+ on n=9. Splits are picks the board started over our MIZ sit-call (vs 50% for all live picks).

Calibration — do our numbers mean anything? · full season, 2026-06-29→2026-08-28 · 862 graded picks · MIZ on 327, BP on 230, Verdict on 343

The ladder above asks whether the tiers sort. This asks the harder question: is the number a probability — when the board says 7, do 70% of those starts come back GOOD+? Bins are equal-count and merge until every one clears n=15; the walk-forward rows are scored against a model that only ever saw earlier days.

Score bin	n	mean	GOOD+	95% CI
MIZ score → P(GOOD+) · our matchup score, 0–10 · live rows only · n=327
MIZ 0.5–3.2	65	2.5	38%	28%–51%
MIZ 3.3–3.9	68	3.6	47%	36%–59%
MIZ 4.0–4.8	65	4.4	51%	39%–63%
MIZ 4.9–5.6	67	5.2	52%	40%–64%
MIZ 5.7–8.9	62	6.5	66%	54%–77%
All MIZ-scored picks	327	—	51%	—
BP score → P(GOOD+) · RelieverRecon's published rating · includes git-backfilled rows · n=230
BP 4.6–6.6	48	6.1	35%	23%–50%
BP 6.7–7.3	44	7.0	52%	38%–66%
BP 7.4–7.7	47	7.5	45%	31%–59%
BP 7.8–8.4	47	8.1	47%	33%–61%
BP 8.5–10.0	44	9.1	43%	30%–58%
All BP-scored picks	230	—	44%	—
Verdict tier → P(GOOD+) · the consensus call itself · live rows only
AUTO START	25	—	72%	52%–86%
START	45	—	60%	45%–73%
DART	96	—	47%	37%–57%
SIT	177	—	47%	40%–54%

Out-of-sample	n	value	vs
Walk-forward probability · logistic on MIZ, refit daily on earlier days only · from 2026-08-05 · 23 days
Brier — our probability	263	0.247	lower is better
Brier — flat base rate to date	263	0.256	we win by 0.009
Brier — verdict-tier history	263	0.254	we win by 0.007
Log loss — our probability	263	0.688	lower is better
ECE — our probability	263	0.066	5 equal-count bins
ECE bins · predicted p vs what actually happened
said 32%–48%	54	39%	off by 5%
said 48%–52%	51	43%	off by 7%
said 52%–57%	53	43%	off by 11%
said 57%–61%	52	54%	off by 5%
said 61%–74%	53	60%	off by 5%
Verdict — usable with caveats: ECE 0.066 over n=263 out-of-sample picks (≤0.03 well calibrated · ≤0.07 usable with caveats); edges the flat base rate on Brier (0.247 vs 0.256, a thin margin; log-loss ~coin-flip).

🔥 Today's Hitter Streamers

Top 10 FA bats for today's slate · score = split vs SP hand (35%) + SP softness (35%) + bat quality (15%) + trailing 15 days (10%) + park (5%) · facing an elite arm fades the score hard (feast on weak pitchers).

#	Hitter	Matchup	Why	Legs	Score
1	AUTO STARTDrew GilbertRF · 1% own	vs AZ ×2 · Kelly R / Bratt L	szn .329 xwOBAL15: 0.969 OPS (44 PA)L14 contact +6.0 (.580 xwOBAcon, 26 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)fills OF needbeats 5 of 6 eligible startersDH — likely both ends (×1.27)G1 Kelly .398 allowed · soft SP0.808 OPS vs RHP (248 AB)G2 short side vs LHP — 14% of ABG2 Bratt .317 allowed · avg SP0.163 OPS vs LHP (41 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	83
2	AUTO STARTBlaze Alexander3B · 3% own	@ ATH · Perkins RHP	szn .361 xwOBAusually bats 1st (×1.12)fills OF needbeats 7 of 11 eligible startersPerkins .312 allowed · avg SP0.873 OPS vs RHP (145 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	69
3	STARTRafael Flores Jr.1B · 4% own	@ STL · Leahy RHP	szn .340 xwOBAL15: 0.771 OPS (46 PA)L14 contact +2.0 (.415 xwOBAcon, 21 BBE)usually bats 5thbeats 2 of 4 eligible startersshort side vs RHP — 47% of ABLeahy .337 allowed · soft SP0.866 OPS vs RHP (34 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	69
4	AUTO STARTEsmerlyn ValdezRF · 17% own	@ STL · Leahy RHP	szn .339 xwOBAL15: 0.694 OPS (46 PA)L14 contact +6.0 (.509 xwOBAcon, 15 BBE)usually bats 2nd (×1.10)fills OF needbeats 4 of 6 eligible startersLeahy .337 allowed · soft SP0.777 OPS vs RHP (133 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	68
5	AUTO STARTTristan PetersCF · 21% own	@ MIN · Ober RHP	szn .315 xwOBAL15: 1.362 OPS (51 PA)L14 contact +3.4 (.445 xwOBAcon, 32 BBE)usually bats 8th (×0.93)fills OF needbeats 4 of 6 eligible startersOber .334 allowed · soft SP0.863 OPS vs RHP (317 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	67
6	CONSIDERTy France1B · 13% own	@ TB · Martinez RHP	szn .332 xwOBAL15: 0.726 OPS (56 PA)L14 contact -2.3 (.319 xwOBAcon, 29 BBE)usually bats 4th (×1.05)beats 0 of 3 eligible startersMartinez .319 allowed · avg SP0.871 OPS vs RHP (246 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	58
7	DEPTHKyle Karros3B · 3% own	@ ATL · Pérez LHP	szn .338 xwOBAusually bats 5thbeats 0 of 3 eligible startersPérez .324 allowed · avg SP0.797 OPS vs LHP (125 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	56
8	DEPTHSpencer Horwitz1B · 4% own	@ STL · Leahy RHP	szn .320 xwOBAL15: 0.419 OPS (37 PA)L14 contact -2.8 (.308 xwOBAcon, 24 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)beats 0 of 3 eligible startersLeahy .337 allowed · soft SP0.781 OPS vs RHP (257 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	55
9	DEPTHDominic Smith1B · 2% own	vs COL · Feltner RHP	szn .299 xwOBAusually bats 7th (×0.95)beats 0 of 3 eligible startersFeltner .357 allowed · soft SP0.736 OPS vs RHP (226 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	55
10	DEPTHLuis CampusanoC · 1% own	@ TB · Martinez RHP	szn .337 xwOBAL15: 0.523 OPS (27 PA)usually bats 7th (×0.95)beats 0 of 2 eligible startersMartinez .319 allowed · avg SP0.889 OPS vs RHP (114 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	54

Tiers vs YOUR lineup tonight — median starter 62, worst Zach Neto (39). AUTO START = beats the median eligible starter.

TBD starter = neutral SP + split legs until the probable posts (refresh upgrades it). Splits need 30+ AB vs that hand. IL bats are excluded; bats who rarely start against tonight's hand are dropped. Doubleheaders: legs average the ends he plays, and everyday bats get up to a ×1.50 volume boost. Lineup slot scales the score by expected PAs from the bat's usual spot (leadoff ×1.12 … 9-hole ×0.90, modal over the last ~10 played days) — his typical order, not today's card, since that posts after waivers run.

🎯 FA Hitters — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Miguel Vargas

1Mickey GasperC · Bos · 7.3%HEATER

88/99 heat on 23 BBE with elite 0.618 xwOBAcon; L14 production (.417/5HR/12RBI) fully corroborates the signal

Heat 88 · 23 BBE · ATC 10 PA · 0 HR · 0 SB · 0.225 · L7 0.546 · 2 HR · sim +0.1 pts

2Justin Crawford

CF · Phi · 3.6% · CATEGORY FIT

Best roto sim (+0.5) and 5 projected SB targets MIZ's only live category need at rank 6

ATC 92 PA · 1 HR · 5 SB · 0.268 · L7 0.2 · 0 HR · sim +0.5 pts

3Drew Gilbert

RF · SF · 0.8% · HEATER

80/99 heat on trusted 26 BBE, 0.580 xwOBAcon; L14 3HR/11RBI production confirms the contact quality

Heat 80 · 26 BBE · ATC 79 PA · 2 HR · 1 SB · 0.228 · L7 0.278 · 1 HR · sim +0.1 pts

4Xander Bogaerts

SS · SD · 18.6% · BEST VALUE

Highest ATC volume among remainders, everyday SS with 3SB upside and AVG support at 0.259

ATC 111 PA · 3 HR · 3 SB · 0.259 · L7 0.188 · 0 HR · sim +0.2 pts

5Colt Keith

1B · Det · 5.2% · HEATER

85/99 heat on 19 BBE, 0.497 xwOBAcon/93.5 EV; ATC projects full-time role; recent 0-fer is noise vs. the contact signal

Heat 85 · 19 BBE · ATC 105 PA · 3 HR · 1 SB · 0.259 · L7 0.0 · 0 HR · sim +0.1 pts

Passed on: Lawrence Butler posted a gaudy .471/1HR/5R/5RBI week but ATC projects only .236 AVG with wRC+ 89 and zero heat-board backing, making him a production mirage over a genuine signal.

💪 Hitter List Rankings

PL Top 150 hitters · your bats + top FAs.

On Hitter List · 17 yours · 9 FAs

Rank	Hitter	MLB	Pos	Chg	AVG	xwOBA	HR	SB	RoS	Chu’s Take
16	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	DH	+3	.245	.367	40	3	128
18	Randy Arozarena	SEA	OF	-	.273	.348	20	20	123
21	Miguel Vargas	CHW	1B/3B	+19	.251	.390	29	13	113	Miguel Vargas has returned to the levels we saw early this summer and that really revs my engine. He’s one of those players who has shown…
36	Yandy Díaz	TB	1B	+3	.302	.354	20	3	123
46	Zach Neto	LAA	SS	+11	.236	.305	22	18	109	Zach Neto has been a monster over the last nine games, with 17 hits, 18 combined runs and RBI (a seven RBI night helps), and seven extra-…
59	Jac Caglianone	KC	1B/OF	+13	.283	.362	23	6	107	Jac Caglianone still hits a lot of grounders, but not quite as many as before (the rolling 15-game rate is a hair below 50%) and the stri…
72	Ty France	SD	1B	+12	.285	.332	18	1	106
77	Royce Lewis	MIN	1B/2B/3B	-15	.234	.315	13	14	103	Royce Lewis is streaky. We just gotta deal with that.
85	Cole Carrigg	COL	OF	-22	.263	.320	6	8	68	The strikeouts have creeped up on Cole Carrigg , up to 32% over his last 11 games (which is, conveniently, exactly 50 plate appearances).…
109	Mickey Gasper	BOS	C	+UR	.275	.355	5	0	94	Mickey Gasper — Fantastic mustache, first of all. Second of all, the batted ball data suggests what’s happening of late is very real, tho…
115	Kaelen Culpepper	MIN	SS	+UR	.333	.337	3	0	91	Kaelen Culpepper — Culpepper puts a lot of balls in play and it’s working out so far. The BABIP Gods can be cruel, though. The 55 point g…
116	Tristan Peters	CHW	OF	+UR	.282	.315	12	7	87	Tristan Peters — Five straight games with a homer is nuts, and it comes out of basically nowhere. His scouting reports and track record a…
119	Rafael Flores Jr.	PIT	C/1B	+UR	.233	.340	6	0	83
135	Henry Bolte	ATH	OF	+UR	.269	.305	6	14	91	Henry Bolte is leading off again and should get some games in Sacramento soon, if you need a streamer.
140	Lawrence Butler	ATH	OF	+UR	.228	.316	12	9	89
145	Tyler Stephenson	CIN	C	-33	.248	.336	13	0	97
146	Ryan Jeffers	MIN	C	-29	.270	.357	10	1	118
148	Andruw Monasterio	BOS	2B/SS	-26	.253	.302	6	4	92
149	Dylan Crews	WSH	OF	-35	.220	.319	10	8	88
150	Luis Rengifo	SD	2B/3B/OF	-24	.242	.304	4	6	87
TS	Bryce Eldridge	SF	1B	—	.254	.351	15	1	99	Bryce Eldridge (1B, SFG) — Power prospects can often take a while to really shine.
TS	Jordan Lawlar	Ari	3B/OF	—	.273	.332	3	4	89	Jordan Lawlar (3B/OF, ARI) — I do not love that he’s sat against two of the three righties the D-Backs have faced, nor the strikeouts. He…
TS	Pedro Ramirez	ChC	2B/3B	—	.285	.301	4	7	92	Pedro Ramirez (2B/3B, CHC) — Hitting well when he plays, which is not very often.
TS	Walker Jenkins	Min	OF	—	.333	—	0	0	92	Walker Jenkins (OF, MIN) — Jenkins will get the call today after a white-hot month in the triple-A. He’s worth a scoop in most leagues, E…
UR	James Wood	Wsh	OF	—	.265	.419	30	17	129	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Ralphy Velazquez	Cle	1B	—	—	—	—	—	83	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.

🔥 Heat Board

Hottest ACTIVE free-agent bats by contact quality, 8/15–8/28 · Heat = percentile vs all MLB bats over the same window (xwOBAcon 30 · EV 20 · Brl 20 · HH 15 · K 10 · BB 5) · min 15 BBE to qualify (smaller samples live in the HM rail) · IL excluded.

Mickey Gasper

C · Bos · 7.3% own · xwOBAcon .618 · EV 90.8 · Brl 26.1% · 23 BBE

▲ .142 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.275	5	19	17	0
L14	.417	5	12	6	0

Ryan Vilade

RF · TB · 0.2% own · xwOBAcon .673 · EV 97.2 · Brl 20.0% · 15 BBE

▲ .166 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.263	11	37	25	3
L14	.429	2	2	5	0

Colt Keith

1B · Det · 5.2% own · xwOBAcon .497 · EV 93.5 · Brl 10.5% · 19 BBE

▼ .013 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.263	9	32	46	5
L14	.250	1	1	4	0

Brett Baty

3B · NYM · 2.6% own · xwOBAcon .446 · EV 93.3 · Brl 11.8% · 17 BBE

▲ .114 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.219	8	40	45	5
L14	.333	0	2	3	0

Esmerlyn Valdez

RF · Pit · 17.4% own · xwOBAcon .509 · EV 92.9 · Brl 20.0% · 15 BBE

▼ .002 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.244	15	42	36	0
L14	.242	1	1	5	0

Andres Chaparro

1B · Wsh · 0.6% own · xwOBAcon .445 · EV 90.5 · Brl 24.0% · 25 BBE

▲ .087 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.246	9	33	29	0
L14	.333	3	5	6	0

Drew Gilbert

RF · SF · 0.8% own · xwOBAcon .580 · EV 91.9 · Brl 19.2% · 26 BBE

▲ .055 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.242	8	36	40	1
L14	.297	3	11	8	0

Justin Foscue

2B · Tex · 0.2% own · xwOBAcon .435 · EV 91.2 · Brl 18.2% · 22 BBE

▲ .012 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.257	9	25	20	0
L14	.269	2	4	4	0

Lars Nootbaar

LF · Ari · 2.4% own · xwOBAcon .402 · EV 91.6 · Brl 12.5% · 24 BBE

▼ .036 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.228	5	22	28	2
L14	.192	1	4	2	1

Hao-Yu Lee

3B · Det · 1.4% own · xwOBAcon .393 · EV 91.8 · Brl 10.7% · 28 BBE

▲ .045 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.268	7	33	26	1
L14	.313	1	5	7	0

Honorable mention · hottest L7 (8/22–8/28), not yet on the board · tiny samples — peek, don't trust

Colton Cowser

CF · Bal

.534 xwOBAcon

10 BBE · .500 L7

Drew Cavanaugh

C · SF

.700 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .333 L7

Ezequiel Tovar

SS · Col

.681 xwOBAcon

10 BBE · .385 L7

Nathan Lukes

RF · Tor

.542 xwOBAcon

11 BBE · .462 L7

Elias Diaz

C · Tex

.414 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .111 L7

Cedric Mullins

CF · TB

.385 xwOBAcon

10 BBE · .154 L7

🎯 FA Pitchers — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Kyle Harrison

1Andrew KittredgeRP · Bal · 1.8%BEST VALUE

Highest roto sim (+1.0), confirmed closer role, 2 SV projected, ratios safe at 1.21 WHIP.

Supp 60 · 16 BBE · ATC 11.0 IP · 1 W · 10 K · 3.87 · 1.21 · 2 SV · Closer · sim +1.0 pts

2Juan Morillo

RP · Ari · 2.8% · CATEGORY FIT

Confirmed closer (+0.9 sim), elite suppression at 84/99 with trusted 8-BBE caveat offset by role clarity.

Supp 84 · 8 BBE · ATC 10.0 IP · 1 W · 10 K · 3.83 · 1.35 · 1 SV · Closer · sim +0.9 pts

3Calvin Faucher

RP · Mia · 0.8% · UPSIDE

Confirmed closer role, +0.9 sim, 80/99 suppression; Mia role thinner but ATC projects 1 SV floor.

Supp 80 · 13 BBE · ATC 11.0 IP · 1 W · 11 K · 3.96 · 1.39 · 1 SV · Closer · sim +0.9 pts

4Grayson Rodriguez

SP · LAA · 3.0% · HEATER

88/99 suppression on 37 trusted BBE, +0.3 sim; elite contact suppression justifies GS volume add.

Supp 88 · 37 BBE · ATC 25.0 IP · 2 W · 25 K · 4.30 · 1.31 · sim +0.3 pts

5AJ Smith-Shawver

SP · Atl · 2.0% · BEST VALUE

Highest SP sim (+0.5), 79/99 suppression; only 1 GS projected limits ceiling but sim leads the SP field.

Supp 79 · 32 BBE · ATC 13.0 IP · 1 W · 14 K · 4.14 · 1.32 · sim +0.5 pts

Passed on: Hayden Wesneski (+0.3 sim, 69/99 suppression) is viable but Rodriguez's superior contact suppression (88 vs 69) and identical sim delta made him the clear tiebreaker SP pick.

⚾ Pitcher List Rankings

PL Top 100 SP · your arms + top FAs.

On Pitcher List · 6 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Pitcher	MLB	Chg	ERA	xERA	K/9	RoS	Pollack’s Take
1	Jacob Misiorowski	MIL	-	1.73	2.00	13.2	3.32	Like a base set Charizard, Misiorowski’s not gonna stop being dope.
9	Blake Snell	LAD	+7	2.57	2.29	11.1	3.42	#HotSnellSummer is in full swing.
10	Dylan Cease	TOR	-1	2.33	2.68	13.0	3.45	Like a perfect burger without the condiments to hit all your macros, Cease gives you everything except for a stable WHIP due to his infla…
20	Kyle Harrison	MIL	+8	2.79	3.24	11.1	4.12	With a dominant outing, he muted our concerns, but Harrison’s still displaying decreased velocity and not commanding as well as he did in…
22	Eury Pérez	MIA	-4	3.44	3.67	9.8	3.87	Pérez has the stuff to be an ace, but there’s polishing to do in the command and game plan departments to unlock his full potential.
30	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	-4	3.38	3.64	6.7	4.19	Baseball’s premier innings eater hasn’t ruined his appetite.
38	Jacob Lopez	ATH	+6	4.82	3.36	8.7	4.63	It’s the 2025 hot streak all over again. Enjoy the ride, ya’ll!
39	Dustin May	MIL	-	4.56	4.20	8.5	4.09	May got Singled Out in a disastrous performance, but his stuff is still dope, and his new situation is ideal. Higher win chance, great de…
40	Walbert Ureña	LAA	-	2.94	3.44	8.7	4.54	Armed with upper-90s heaters and one of the best changeups in baseball, Ureña has hit few speed bumps. If that developing sweeper becomes…
45	Peter Lambert	HOU	-4	3.66	3.54	8.8	4.58	Lambert’s stumble last time was a product of being Singled Out . He’s been reliable all year, but we should be recognizing that Holly is …
46	Jared Jones	PIT	-8	4.83	3.67	10.3	3.99	The stuff is top-tier, but he’s still shaking off the Tommy John surgery rust with his command and the tight leash the Pirates have on hi…
54	Joey Cantillo	CLE	-8	3.70	3.97	9.6	4.05	Efficiency is a problem, but Cantillo is doing everything we want. More curveballs, faster fastballs, and supportive cutters. Throw more …
56	Shane Bieber	TOR	+14	4.37	5.94	7.1	4.19	Bieber is back in business. His heater looked awesome in The Trop, and his offspeed pitches are being the CSW monsters they need to be to…
57	Tyler Mahle	ATL	-	4.41	4.28	8.5	4.10	Mahle’s command and velocity have been stellar since returning from the IL in late June. He’s got an even better situation pitching in At…
58	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	-	3.51	3.75	6.2	4.60	Despite what the line suggests, Pfaadt’s last start wasn’t an end to his Vargas Rule . It was a textbook Careful, Icarus with a three-run…
59	Christian Scott	NYM	+1	3.80	3.97	10.7	3.94	Scott has been happy to show us his floor, but the stuff is still there to propel him up The List at a moment’s notice. It’s felt a littl…

🔒 Closer Chart

Save targets · roles + regression flags.

BLUEEntrenched closer (highest leverage)GREENNext man up / committee pieceYELLOWSetup, 8th-inning leverageORANGESpeculative / lower priorityMAGENTAHigh-upside future / multi-inning

	Pitcher	Tm	Role	SV	SVHD	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K/9	Rtg / Own
Yours on the chart
—	Andrés Muñoz	Seattle Mariners	CL	24	24	48.3	4.28	1.22	3.31	14.3	5.0 · —
—	Louis Varland	Toronto Blue Jays	CL	30	35	67.7	1.20	0.99	2.20 ↑	11.0	5.0 · —
—	Justin Martinez	Arizona Diamondbacks	FU	0	0	3.0	0.00	1.00	3.54 ↑	6.0	1.0 · —
Top 5 FA closers (by team rating)
—	Calvin Faucher	Miami Marlins	CL	2	16	56.3	3.99	1.37	3.72	10.1	3.5 · 1%
	Andrew Kittredge	Baltimore Orioles	CL	7	16	41.3	3.27	1.35	4.02	7.6	3.0 · 2%
	Juan Morillo	Arizona Diamondbacks	CL	2	19	53.3	2.19	1.01	2.29	10.5	1.0 · 3%
	Carson Seymour	San Francisco Giants	CL	1	5	18.3	4.91	1.53	6.45 ↑	6.9	1.0 · 0%
	Orlando Ribalta	Washington Nationals	CL	2	14	41.0	3.95	1.24	3.94	8.3	1.0 · 0%

ERA cell: green <3.00 · red >4.50. xERA arrow: ↓ ERA likely to fall (buy) · ↑ ERA likely to rise (sell). Triggers when |xERA−ERA| ≥ 1.00.

✂️ Cut List

Drop priority · value, form, pedigree, role.

50	Royce Lewis 3B · Min low TV (18) sim cost ~0	TV 18 Rd 13
40	Justin Martinez RP · Ari low TV (16); BUT fresh-callup upside; BUT strong RoS (3.46 ERA) sim −0.05% win if cut	TV 16 UFDA
20	Ryan Jeffers C · Min mid TV (36); BUT top-tier keeper; BUT young breakout signal sim cost ~0	TV 36 UFDA
15	Kyle Harrison SP · Mil mid TV (60); UFDA — easy to drop; BUT top-tier keeper sim cost ~0	TV 60 UFDA
12	Sandy Alcantara SP · Mia BUT solid keeper sim cost ~0	TV 72 Rd 14

Higher score = drop sooner — top 5 by score, and only 8+ reaches the board, so the number has no ceiling and is only comparable within this list. The sim line is a roto-sim marginal (cut vs. keep on one shared set of draws), not a measured cost. Pedigree + named closers shielded.

🌱 Stash List

PL's top prospects · grab them cheap.

Hitters

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 23: Top 10 Hitting Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + PSS + PFV + age + 40-man + path.

24 available — 2 yours

W. Jenkins YOURS

OF · MIN · AAA · 21 · ↗ called up

100

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

14·17·.323

R. Velazquez YOURS

1B/C · CLE · AA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

28·2·.292

H. Mendez

OF · MIN · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

12·4·.278

J. Tibbs III

OF · LAD · AAA · 23 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

27·8·.297

S. Thompson

OF · COL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

12·16·.301

F. Arias

SS · BOS · AAA · 20 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

23·6·.312

M. Anderson

2B · DET · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

16·5·.310

Y. Morales

3B · WSN · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

24·6·.290

C. Cannarella

OF · MIA · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

13·20·.336

J. Melton

OF · TB · AAA · 25 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

7·26·.298

B. Davidson

OF · SFG · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

September

Szn

25·19·.281

L. Montes

OF · SEA · AAA · 21 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

37·8·.246

S. King

SS/2B/3B · WSN · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

18·14·.318

Z. Hope

OF · DET · AA · 21 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

26·23·.278

S. Walcott

3B/SS · TEX · AA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

5·8·.306

R. Ward

LF · LAD · AAA · 28 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

20·7·.251

P. Harber

3B · SFG · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

'27

Szn

17·4·.287

J. Made

SS · MIL · AA · 19 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

13·35·.273

C. Ingle

C · CLE · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

18·2·.290

J. Long

1B · CHC · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

13·3·.278

K. Alderman

OF · MIA · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

18·10·.261

E. Salas

C · SDP · AAA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September

Szn

10·16·.295

M. Arroyo

SS · SEA · AAA · 21 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

18·16·.279

D. Crisantes

2B/3B · ARI · AAA · 21 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

9·0·.289

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

Pitchers

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 22: Top 10 Pitching Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + L3 quality + FV + age + 40-man + path.

27 available

L. Perales

SP · WSN · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

100K·3.94

H. Smith

SP · CHW · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

August 1st

Szn

103K·3.76

C. Seymour

SP · SFG · AAA · 27 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

84K·4.01

R. Snelling

SP · MIA · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

46K·2.38

J. Tong

SP · NYM · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

125K·4.75

T. Johnson

SP · TBR · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

82K·2.85

T. Bremner

SP · LAA · AA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

'26

Szn

84K·4.26

M. Bratt

SP · ARI · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

79K·3.33

R. Sloan

SP · SEA · AA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

100

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

111K·3.63

D. Davalillo

SP · TEX · AAA · 24 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

91K·5.01

J. Ritchie

SP · ATL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

114K·3.83

A. Kelly

SP · PIT · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

71K·4.55

C. Crow

SP · MIL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

97K·3.82

M. Forret

SP · BAL · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

115K·3.85

B. Garrett

SP · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

June 1st

Szn

101K·3.68

M. Wilkinson

SP · SFG · AAA · 23 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

98K·3.57

T. McDougal

SP · CHW · AAA · 23 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

47K·4.75

G. Wood

P · PHI · AA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

'26

Szn

124K·4.40

B. Mautz

SP · STL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

91K·3.86

C. Dana

SP · LAA · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

72K·5.90

M. Ullola

SP · HOU · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

94K·4.41

O. Murphy

SP · ATL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

119K·3.95

J. Wenninger

SP · NYM · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

110K·4.23

T. Gibson

SP · BAL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

98K·5.13

B. Hopkins

SP · TBR · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

112K·5.46

K. Curtis

SP · PIT · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

113K·4.48

L. Braun

SP · ATL · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

101K·3.72

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

🔭 10 not a 2026 factor — Liam Doyle · Anthony Eyanson · Jamie Arnold · Joseph Dzierwa · Jaxon Wiggins · Christian Zazueta · Jurrangelo Cijntje · Tyson Hardin · Jonathan Santucci · Karson Milbrandt

💼 Trades

Buy-low targets · league trade history.

Top Buy-Lows

Rebound candidates · suggested offers.

Hitters

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Trent Grisham CF · NYY · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.3σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.217 / xBA 0.247 · xwOBA 0.341	33%	113 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Royce Lewis 3B + Bryce Eldridge 1B · two-piece package (TV 41 vs target 37)
📈 BUY-LOW	JJ Bleday CF · Cin · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.3σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.219 / xBA 0.245 · xwOBA 0.351	24%	104 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 24 vs target 27)
📈 BUY-LOW	Ronald Acuna Jr. RF · Atl · GoOs · My Best Guys +1.1σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.228 / xBA 0.251 · xwOBA 0.357	98%	136 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Blake Snell SP + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 80 vs target 86)
📈 BUY-LOW	Heriberto Hernandez LF · Mia · FRAN · francisw789 +1.1σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.234 / xBA 0.250 · xwOBA 0.350	4%	99 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Royce Lewis 3B · comparable value (TV 17 vs target 23)
↑ mild buy	Taylor Ward LF · Sea · GoOs · My Best Guys +0.7σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.231 / xBA 0.244 · xwOBA 0.339	61%	118 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Kyle Harrison SP · comparable value (TV 60 vs target 60)
↑ mild buy	Brandon Nimmo LF · Tex · DORN · Lambertmt48 +0.6σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.259 / xBA 0.280 · xwOBA 0.355	67%	119 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Royce Lewis 3B + Bryce Eldridge 1B · two-piece package (TV 41 vs target 45)
↑ mild buy	Kyle Stowers LF · Mia · KNIG · TKHOO +0.7σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.242 / xBA 0.233 · xwOBA 0.330	28%	111 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 24 vs target 27)
↑ mild buy	Dominic Canzone RF · Sea · GARR · jregarris +0.5σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.256 / xBA 0.269 · xwOBA 0.355	12%	113 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Henry Bolte RF + Bryce Eldridge 1B + +$3 FAAB · two-piece package (TV 28 vs target 34)
📈 BUY-LOW	Mike Trout OF · LAA · KNIG · TKHOO +1.4σ buy-low · OF — fits a need · BA 0.241 / xBA 0.254 · xwOBA 0.383	94%	127 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Sandy Alcantara SP · comparable value (TV 72 vs target 77)
📈 BUY-LOW	Cal Raleigh C · Sea · KNIG · TKHOO +1.9σ buy-low · C — modest fit · BA 0.167 / xBA 0.181 · xwOBA 0.304	82%	119 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Yandy Diaz 1B + +$4 FAAB · comparable value (TV 73 vs target 81)

Pitchers

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Kodai Senga SP · NYM · KRTZ · FratSkins +1.5σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 7.79 vs xERA 4.97	10%	3.96 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Walker Jenkins CF · comparable value (TV 2 vs target 4)
↑ mild buy	Freddy Peralta SP · TB · KNIG · TKHOO +0.7σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 5.11 vs xERA 3.97	69%	4.01 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Royce Lewis 3B + Bryce Eldridge 1B · two-piece package (TV 41 vs target 43)
↑ mild buy	Bryce Miller SP · Sea · BLOB · crenshawh19 +0.6σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.12 vs xERA 3.17	35%	4.10 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Jac Caglianone RF · comparable value (TV 52 vs target 48)
↑ mild buy	Andrew Painter SP · Phi · KRTZ · FratSkins +0.7σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 6.04 vs xERA 4.81	14%	4.78 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Royce Lewis 3B · comparable value (TV 17 vs target 14)

League History

Completed trades · frozen grade at the deal + live grade now.

Side	Sent	At deal	Now	Trend
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Andy Pages	A- +7	A+ +44	▲ up
Camp MVP	Pete Crow-Armstrong	C -7	F -44	▼ down
Team Knighton ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Team Knighton	Matthew Boyd	F -22	F -22
Camp MVP	Kenley Jansen	A+ +22	A+ +22
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Worst2First 2026-08-10
Miz-waukee’s Best	Charlie Condon, Payton Tolle	A+ +50	A+ +35	▼ down
Worst2First	Dylan Cease	F -50	F -35	▲ up
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Dorn and Associates LLC 2026-08-05
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Travis Bazzana, George Lombard Jr., Nolan McLean	A+ +144	A+ +107	▼ down
Dorn and Associates LLC	Jackson Chourio, Jhoan Duran, Brice Turang, David Bednar	F -144	F -107	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-07-31
Miz-waukee’s Best	Samuel Basallo, Kade Anderson	A- +8	A +9
Ramirez Against the Machine	Blake Snell	C -8	D -9
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Team Knighton 2026-07-23
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Jo Adell, Jacob deGrom	F -49	F -63	▼ down
Team Knighton	Trea Turner	A+ +49	A+ +63	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine ⇄ Miz-waukee’s Best 2026-07-19
Ramirez Against the Machine	Sandy Alcantara	F -42	F -68	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best	Josh Jung	A+ +42	A+ +68	▲ up
I need Buck Showalter ⇄ Hit the Damn Ball You Bums 2026-06-19
I need Buck Showalter	Nasim Nunez	A+ +28	B +1	▼ down
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Justin Wrobleski	F -28	B -1	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ The Boys of Summer 2026-06-12
Miz-waukee’s Best	Chandler Simpson	A +10	A- +7	▼ down
The Boys of Summer	$30 FAAB	D -10	C -7	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-05-01
Miz-waukee’s Best	Kenley Jansen	—	A- +6
Camp MVP	$30 FAAB	A- +3	C -6	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-04-22
Miz-waukee’s Best	Nathan Eovaldi, $70 FAAB	—	F -15
Ramirez Against the Machine	Jac Caglianone	A+ +60	A+ +15	▼ down

🔻 Sell-High — My Roster

Surface line outrunning the underlying skill — trade-value peaks. σ = his surface-stat z-score minus his Statcast-skill z-score, both against the league reference for his side — bigger σ = further ahead of the skill. Pair with Buy-Low Targets.

Verdict	Player	Own	Surface vs expected	Contact	2027 keeper
↓ SHOP	Yandy Diaz 1B · TB 0.65σ sell-high · 1B · BA 0.301 / xBA 0.286 · xwOBA 0.354 — test the market, don't force it	93%	BA 0.301 / xBA 0.286 +.015 wOBA 0.361 / xwOBA 0.354 +.007	HH 47.1% · Brl/PA 5.1%	7th · +1 rd vs mkt
↓ SHOP	Henry Bolte RF · Oak 0.61σ sell-high · RF · BA 0.272 / xBA 0.242 · xwOBA 0.305 — test the market, don't force it	4%	BA 0.272 / xBA 0.242 +.030 wOBA 0.324 / xwOBA 0.305 +.019	HH 47.4% · Brl/PA 4.3%	25th · +2 rds vs mkt
HOLD — KEEPER PRICE	Louis Varland RP · Tor 0.41σ sell-high · RP · ERA 1.20 vs xERA 2.20 — only move for keeper-grade return	86%	ERA 1.20 / xERA 2.20 -1.00	Brl 4.3% allowed	22nd · +16 rds vs mkt

👥 Your Roster

Your roster · news + buy/sell signals.

News (last 24h)

Player news · last 24h.

Walker Jenkins Walker Jenkins, Twins' top prospect, singles in major league debut
Sat 08-29 04:55 AM
Twins top prospect Walker Jenkins has been called up from Triple-A St. Paul.
Yandy Diaz Diaz, Mullins homers power AL-leading Rays to a 9-4 win over the Padres for 80th victory
Sat 08-29 02:12 AM
— Yandy Diaz and Cedric Mullins each homered and drove in two runs and the AL-leading Tampa Bay Rays scored five runs in the fourth inning on the way to a 9-4 victory over the San Diego Padres on Friday night.
Dylan Cease Dylan Cease strikes out 8 in six innings, Blue Jays hit 3 homers to beat Mariners 8-1
Sat 08-29 02:04 AM
— Dylan Cease struck out eight in six innings, George Springer was 4 for 4 with a home run, and the Toronto Blue Jays beat the Seattle Mariners 8-1 on Friday night.
Pedro Ramirez Reds win 10-8 thriller over the Cubs
Fri 08-28 09:41 PM
Reds win 10-8 thriller over the Cubs
Jordan Lawlar Fantasy baseball lineup advice for Saturday: Kade Anderson tops streaming candidates
Fri 08-28 08:52 PM
Everything you need to know to set your fantasy baseball lineups for Saturday's MLB action.
Walker Jenkins Fantasy baseball news and notes: Ailing Arenado sits for Arizona and more for Friday
Fri 08-28 02:33 PM
All of the important fantasy spin and actionable takeaways resulting from the latest baseball news.

Leverage Buys/Sells

Buy/sell windows · surface vs. underlying.

Hitters

Player	Pos	MLB	BA	xBA	wOBA	xwOBA	Brl%	Own%	Signal
James Wood IL10	LF	Wsh	0.265	0.275	0.395	0.419	100.0	99.1	📈 BUY-LOW
Miguel Vargas	3B	ChW	0.251	0.268	0.371	0.390	93.0	95.2	📈 BUY-LOW
Kyle Schwarber	DH	Phi	0.245	0.238	0.379	0.367	98.0	99.5	📈 BUY-LOW
Bryce Eldridge	1B	SF	0.254	0.252	0.343	0.351	76.0	8.2	↑ mild buy
Jac Caglianone	RF	KC	0.283	0.282	0.358	0.362	94.0	58.1	fair
Zach Neto	SS	LAA	0.236	0.209	0.328	0.305	78.0	60.6	fair
Randy Arozarena	LF	Sea	0.273	0.260	0.366	0.348	50.0	93.8	fair
Cole Carrigg	CF	Col	0.263	0.251	0.345	0.320	—	13.8	fair
Ryan Jeffers	C	Min	0.270	0.256	0.372	0.357	74.0	40.4	fair
Henry Bolte	RF	Oak	0.269	0.242	0.324	0.305	45.0	4.2	↓ mild fade
Yandy Diaz	1B	TB	0.302	0.286	0.361	0.354	41.0	92.6	↓ mild fade
Kaelen Culpepper	SS	Min	0.333	0.267	0.392	0.337	—	5.7	fair
Royce Lewis	3B	Min	0.234	0.243	0.308	0.315	73.0	16.7	↑ mild buy
Walker Jenkins	CF	Min	0.333	—	—	—	—	9.2	—
Jordan Lawlar	3B	Ari	0.273	0.270	0.366	0.332	—	3.2	fair
Ralphy Velazquez	1B	Cle	—	—	—	—	—	0.8	—
Pedro Ramirez	3B	ChC	0.285	0.266	0.335	0.301	—	2.1	fair

Pitchers

Pitcher	Pos	MLB	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K-BB%	xwOBA-a	Brl%-a	Own%	Signal
Blake Snell	SP	LAD	21.0	2.57	1.05	2.29	19.5	0.236	0.0	88.7	↑ mild buy
Andres Munoz	RP	Sea	48.3	4.28	1.22	3.31	27.9	0.283	9.4	80.2	↑ mild buy
Joe Ryan IL15	SP	Min	125.7	4.08	1.15	3.49	21.2	0.290	10.5	90.0	fair
Jacob Misiorowski	SP	Mil	151.0	1.73	0.75	2.00	32.7	0.220	3.6	99.6	fair
Dylan Cease	SP	Tor	150.3	2.33	1.05	2.68	25.3	0.255	4.6	99.3	fair
Sandy Alcantara	SP	Mia	183.7	3.38	1.18	3.64	11.6	0.296	5.3	91.6	fair
Eury Perez	SP	Mia	130.7	3.44	1.13	3.67	16.2	0.297	9.1	83.0	fair
Kyle Harrison	SP	Mil	103.3	2.79	1.12	3.24	23.6	0.280	6.8	77.7	fair
Louis Varland	RP	Tor	67.7	1.20	0.99	2.20	24.6	0.231	4.3	86.4	↓ mild fade
Justin Martinez	RP	Ari	3.0	0.00	1.00	3.54	0.0	0.292	0.0	1.7	—

📰 MLB News — Top Fantasy Stories

🔒 Keepers — 2027 Slate

Peter's model (additive): rounds-saved (cost arbitrage spine) + current skill + career-grade pedigree + sample stability + Statcast over/under-performance trend, with age-decline (33+), closer/RP, and top-30 talent adjustments. Heavy on bargain-hunting.
Claude's model (multiplicative dynasty index): EFV(2027) = (3 + skill + upside) × age_mult × pos_mult; score = EFV − cost_replacement − mookie-lock. Compounds age curve and position scarcity.
Sorted by consensus rank (average of both models). MLB-inactive players surfaced in 🚑 Return Watch below.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict	Notes
1.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	21st	#1 (+24.4)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51	UFDA-G FV 55
3.0	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	25th	#2 (+22.6)	#4 (+18.5)	S · $18	UFDA
3.0	Eury Perez	SP · 23yo	20th	#4 (+19.6)	#2 (+24.0)	S · $24	UFDA-G
4.0	Kyle Harrison	SP · 24yo	25th	#3 (+20.2)	#5 (+17.1)	A · $17	UFDA
5.0	Zach Neto	SS · 25yo	10th	#7 (+14.5)	#3 (+22.0)	S · $22
5.5	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	22nd	#5 (+18.3)	#6 (+17.0)	A · $17
6.5	Bryce Eldridge	1B · 20yo	25th	#6 (+16.0)	#7 (+13.7)	A · $14	UFDA FV 55
8.5	Jac Caglianone	RF · 22yo	21st	#8 (+12.5)	— (+9.1)	B · $9	UFDA-G FV 55
8.5	Dylan Cease	SP · 30yo	4th	— (+11.9)	#8 (+11.7)	A · $12

NEW UFDA cap: Peter 3/3 · Claude 3/3 · BOTH = top 8 in both models. Peter only = his model values cost surplus more; Claude only = mine values projection / position scarcity more.

🚑 Return watch — would be keeper-eligible if they get MLB action this year. Rank shown is hypothetical (where they'd slot if eligible).

Player	Pos · Age	Cost	Peter (if elig.)	Claude (if elig.)
Walker Jenkins	CF · 20yo	25th	#14 (+0.0)	#12 (+1.6)
Ralphy Velazquez	1B · 19yo	25th	#15 (-2.0)	#12 (+1.4)

Updated Sat Aug 29 · 4:20 AM ET

🌍 League-Wide Top Keepers

Top 10 keepers · all 12 teams · both models. Yours in green.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	Team	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict
1.5	Jesus Luzardo	SP · 28yo	KNIG	21st	#1 (+28.7)	#2 (+42.1)	S · $42
3.5	Jordan Walker	RF · 24yo	GARR	25th	#2 (+27.5)	#5 (+38.7)	S · $39
3.5	Bryan Baker	RP · 31yo	DORN	25th	#3 (+25.2)	#4 (+38.7)	S · $39
3.5	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	MIZ	21st	#6 (+24.4)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51
5.5	Geraldo Perdomo	SS · 26yo	DORN	21st	#5 (+25.0)	#6 (+33.4)	S · $33
7.0	Cam Schlittler	SP · 24yo	KRTZ	19th	— (+19.5)	#3 (+40.8)	S · $41
7.5	Payton Tolle	SP · 22yo	FRST	25th	#4 (+25.0)	— (+21.2)	S · $21
8.5	Nolan McLean	SP · 23yo	DORN	20th	#10 (+22.4)	#7 (+32.7)	S · $33
9.0	Ben Rice	1B · 27yo	DORN	20th	#7 (+23.3)	— (+24.0)	S · $24
9.5	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	MIZ	25th	#8 (+22.6)	— (+18.5)	S · $18
9.5	Foster Griffin	SP · 30yo	GoOs	25th	— (+21.8)	#8 (+29.9)	S · $30
10.0	Jose Soriano	SP · 27yo	BLOB	25th	#9 (+22.5)	— (+19.8)	S · $20
10.0	Cade Cavalli	SP · 26yo	FRAN	21st	— (+20.6)	#9 (+26.1)	S · $26
10.5	Otto Lopez	SS · 27yo	BLOB	20th	— (+20.4)	#10 (+25.1)	S · $25

Updated Sat Aug 29 · 4:20 AM ET

🏚️ Keeper Cupboards

Every team's six best keepers · shade = dual-model consensus value. Cupboard score weights the top four heavily (the slots that get kept), keepers 5–8 taper. 100 = league's best cupboard.

Team	K1	K2	K3	K4	K5	K6	Cupboard
1DORN	BakerR25	PerdomoR21	RiceR20	McLeanR20	WarrenR25	EdmanR25	100
2MIZ	MisiorowskiR21	VargasR25	PerezR20	HarrisonR25	NetoR10	VarlandR22	98
3GARR	WalkerR25	MessickR18	RocchioR25	CanzoneR25	DinglerR22	GoreR8	82
4KNIG	LuzardoR21	MartinezR25	deGromR13	AbreuR15	RodriguezR25	DuranR25	74
5FRAN	CavalliR21	LatzR25	BradishR21	BurnsR5	AntonacciR25	McClanahanR17	70
6GoOs	GriffinR25	BradleyR25	WachaR25	BurlesonR9	BaldwinR14	ReynoldsR10	66
7KRTZ	SchlittlerR19	BurkeR25	McGonigleR17	StewartR10	IIR5	BednarR4	64
8BLOB	SorianoR25	LopezR20	ScottR25	LileR15	SuarezR12	BurgerR19	64
9THAR	GonzalesR25	RasmussenR8	O'BrienR17	WilliamsR11	MizeR19	LeeR25	59
10FRST	TolleR25	RouppR25	WheelerR8	ElderR25	SkubalR1	DurbinR17	57
11PEYT ▼ thin	SanchezR9	HendersonR25	WooR8	CameronR18	WetherholtR13	NolaR16	55
12RAGE ▼ thin	HerreraR20	CamineroR5	BledayR25	LeeR21	BibeeR14	BohmR18	46

The bottom two rows are your trade marks — thin cupboards pay up for keepable pieces.

data: snap 0h · BP 4d · PL 4d · HL 20h · PSS 0h · BR 0h · FG 19h · proj 19h · closer 0h · oyster 15h · AAA-sc 5h · cookie ok