Miz-waukee’s Best — The Brandon League

Last updated Monday, September 07 · 10:34 AM ET

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Any player in the league universe · tap a result for the card.

☕ Morning Briefing

📊 MIZ holds 1st with 103.5 points — a comfortable 18.0-point cushion over #2 Hit the Damn Ball You Bums — though you did slip 1.0 pt since the last update, so don't sleep on two soft spots: W is dead-level with GoOs (one swing costs you a roto point) and you're within 1 K of PEYT for a free point on the other side.

⚡ Good production from your guys yesterday: Kyle Schwarber went 1-3 with a HR, 2 runs, and a walk vs. the Braves; Miguel Vargas added 2-5 with an RBI, stolen base, and a walk vs. the Twins; and Andres Munoz was clean — 1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 K, save vs. the Athletics. Tonight, confirm Eury Perez and Dylan Cease are active in your lineup.

🚨 Stash-board update: Jonah Tong was recalled by the Mets from Syracuse and is still a free agent — he was on your stash board, so act if you want him. Separately, Jordan Lawlar was dropped from your roster and is now a free agent leaguewide.

🔭 In the minors, Zyhir Hope (RI 86, MLB Pipeline #28, FA) went 3-for-5 with a HR and 4 RBI at AA vs. the Somerset Patriots — that kind of production at his prospect pedigree keeps him firmly on the radar.

📰 A couple of league-wide notes worth flagging: Shohei Ohtani is expected back in the Dodgers' lineup Monday after missing four straight games, a significant fantasy reactivation for anyone who rostered him. Nick Pivetta is also returning from a long flexor-strain absence to start for San Diego, though with expected workload limits, his early outings carry ERA/WHIP risk. Finally, GoOs takes a category-relevant hit with Ceddanne Rafaela landing on the 10-day IL (retroactive to Sept. 3, right quad) — that's a depth blow for one of your closer pursuers.

ELIGIBILITYK. Schwarber 1B 7/10

Your standing

1stof 12

103.5 roto pts +18.0 clear of 2nd

-1.0 pts vs last update

Top Gaps

W (6.5) SB (7.0)

categories below mid-pack

Score change since last update

K -1.0

🎯 Category Pressure

Category ranks vs. the league.

Rank →

Δ to #1

965

1047

🥇

280

304

🥇

RBI

901

932

🥇

132

142

143

199

+57

AVG

.254

.257

.258

.259

+0.003

1192

1217

1218

1364

+147

+13

ERA

3.48

3.32

🥇

WHIP

1.18

1.13

🥇

📅 Yesterday's MIZ Box Scores (2026-09-06)

Loading box scores…

🏥 IL Rehab Tracker

IL players · rehab game logs.

On the IL, no rehab games yet: Spencer Schwellenbach (IL60 · watch).

📊 League Activity (last 24h)

All adds, drops, and trades across the 12 teams.

Team	Move
Miz-waukee’s Best	− Jordan Lawlar
Phil Swift's Flex Seal	+ Thomas Saggese \| − Zac Thornton

🏆 League Standings

Current roto points · 10,000-sim projected finish. FAAB = acquisition budget remaining.

100.0% to win the league · proj finish 1.0 · 102.6 roto pts

#	Team	Pts	FAAB	Win%	Proj Pts	Range	Proj Rk
1	MIZ Miz-waukee’s Best	103.5	$0	100.0%	102.6	100–105	1.0
2	FRAN Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	85.5	$59	0.0%	86.2	82–91	2.5
3	PEYT Phil Swift's Flex Seal	80.0	$25	0.0%	84.9	80–90	2.8
4	KRTZ Photogenic Nick Kurtz	79.5	$20	0.0%	81.9	77–87	3.5
5	GoOs I need Buck Showalter	69.5	$170	0.0%	68.8	64–73	5.2
6	BLOB Camp MVP	64.5	$168	0.0%	66.3	63–69	5.7
7	KNIG Team Knighton	64.0	$137	0.0%	60.3	57–64	7.1
8	THAR Phil Mickeltits	61.0	$176	0.0%	57.6	54–62	7.7
9	DORN Dorn and Associates LLC	47.0	$89	0.0%	45.4	42–49	10.0
10	GARR The Boys of Summer	44.5	$155	0.0%	48.6	45–53	9.2
11	FRST Worst2First	42.0	$154	0.0%	42.9	39–47	10.7
12	RAGE Ramirez Against the Machine	39.0	$163	0.0%	34.6	32–37	12.0

10,000 sims · fixed seed · noise CV talent 0.12 / idio 0.06 / team-cat 0.08 · assumes ATC rest-of-season rates

Your categories · projected roto points

R 12.0HR 12.0RBI 12.0SB 7.0AVG 9.8W 6.3SV 9.0K 10.5ERA 12.0WHIP 12.0

Winnable — push here: SB, AVG, W, SV.

🚨 Today's Streaming Board

159 of 200 GS · should be 178 · 19 behindBehind pace — stream aggressively

041 left · ~14.3/wk to cap · proj 178200

⏳ BP's post is late — Verdict pill is running on our score + Pitcher List for now (BP joins the top-2 once it posts).

Your starters + top FA streamers

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Eury Perez	vs NYM	DART	—	3.9	#7	Two rough outings but underlying stuff remains intact.
Dylan Cease	@ ATH	AUTO START	—	6.5	#2	Elite arm, start without hesitation.
Jacob Lopez	vs TOR	START	—	6.3	#6	Hot streak continues, ride the momentum.
Emmet Sheehan	vs. CIN	DARTrust	—	—	#9	Returning Monday; minor-league work has been excellent.
Joey Cantillo	@ BAL	DART	—	4.9	#12	Command faltering recently; stuff and approach trending better.
Jake Irvin	@ SD	SIT	—	3.7	—	average SD lineup, weak skills, shaky recent form
Grayson Rodriguez	@ BOS	SIT	—	3.7	#16	Breaking ball unresolved; limited upside without third pitch.
Robert Gasser	vs CHC	SIT	—	3.7	#17	Cutter flashes well; control issues undermine rest of arsenal.
Brayan Bello	vs LAA	SIT⚠ opener	—	3.0	—	soft LAA lineup, shaky recent form, hitter park
Michael McGreevy	@ SF	SIT	—	2.4	#14	Favorable matchup could yield six innings.
Will Dion	@ SDP	SITleashopener	—	—	#19	Short leash likely; opener or 60-pitch cap scenarios in play.
Patrick Sandoval	vs. LAA	SIT	—	—	#21	WHIP liability, damages ratios.

Openers filtered: Jonah Tong, Derek Law

Your staff: 3.32 ERA / 1.13 WHIP · GS 159/200 — Behind pace — stream aggressively. Verdict = the best 2 of BP · our score · Pitcher List, averaged (low outlier dropped); before BP posts it's our score + PL. ⚠ = our matchup score dissented — eyeball that one. Tap a MIZ score for the reasoning.

Tomorrow · 2 of yours + top 5 FA · Tue 9/8 · BP not out yet, so pill = our score + Pitcher List

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Sandy Alcantara	vs NYM	START	—	6.2	—	average NYM lineup, strong skills, friendly park
Jacob Misiorowski	vs CHC	START	—	6.0	—	tough CHC lineup, strong skills, hot recent form
Hayden Wesneski	@ PHI	START	—	6.0	—	average PHI lineup, hot recent form, hitter park
Quinn Mathews	@ SF	START	—	6.0	—	soft SF lineup, shaky recent form, strong skills
Andrew Painter	vs HOU	START	—	5.7	—	tough HOU lineup, hot recent form, hitter park
Jack Perkins	vs TOR	DART⚠ opener	—	5.1	—	average TOR lineup, hitter park
Brandon Young	vs CLE	DART	—	4.9	—	soft CLE lineup, hitter park

Quinn Mathews@ SF LHP6.0

SF off .676 OPS · elite matchupskill 74 pctlL21: 4.58 ERA / 1.53 WHIPL14 contact +2.0 (.323 xwOBAcon-against, 29 BBE)~4.8 IP/startexp 3.60 ERA ↑ hurts (you 3.32)exp 1.47 WHIP ↑ hurts (you 1.13)GS 159/200 · Behind pace — stream aggressively

matchup

skill

form

win

park

📼 Streamer Report Card

Does the Streaming Board actually work? Every pick it showed, frozen at pick time and graded off the real box score. Two scoreboards below: first our own calls — the Verdict ladder and MIZ (our matchup score, 0–10) — then the outside lists behind them, BP (RelieverRecon's daily BP Streamers post) and PL (Pitcher List's tier ranking). Grades are recomputed from raw lines on every build — the rubric can change, the history follows.

Last 30d · 345 starts graded over 29 days · GOOD+ 48% · BLOWUP 18% · agg ERA 4.36 · WHIP 1.33 · 4.5 K/start · 373 picks logged, 14 never started, 14 awaiting a box score — not graded

Grade mix · all 345 graded starts

GEM 66 GOOD 99 OK 118 BLOWUP 62

GEM6+ IP, ≤1 ER · or 6+ IP, 8+ K, ≤2 ERGOODquality start (6+ IP, ≤3 ER) · or 5+ IP, ≤2 EROKheld the line without earning GOODBLOWUP5+ ER · or under 4 IP with 4+ ERGOOD+ = GEM + GOOD. A pick whose starter never took the ball grades to nothing and leaves every rate below.

Cohort	n	GOOD+	BLOWUP	ERA
Q1 — Do our own calls work? · Verdict ladder + MIZ bands · live board rows only, nothing backfilled
Verdict · AUTO START	26	73%	15%	3.22
Verdict · START	47	60%	9%	3.83
Verdict · DART	93	42%	15%	4.72
Verdict · SIT	179	44%	22%	4.50
MIZ ≥ 5.0	115	63%	13%	3.61
MIZ 3.5–4.9	139	42%	20%	4.77
MIZ < 3.5	74	38%	22%	4.98
All live board picks	345	48%	18%	4.36
Q1 read — the ladder has not separated: GOOD+ runs 73% · 60% · 42% · 44% down the rungs, and MIZ sorts: GOOD+ falls 63% · 42% · 38% from the top band down.
Q2 — Which outside list earns the weight? · BP and PL graded on their own published lists · mostly rebuilt from git
PL · Auto Start	25	68%	20%	3.92
PL · Probably Start	45	60%	11%	3.71
PL · Questionable Start	99	48%	18%	4.60
PL · Do Not Start	152	44%	20%	4.40
BP · Auto	11	36%	9%	4.74
BP · Likely	28	46%	18%	4.33
All graded picks	345	48%	18%	4.36
Q2 read — against the 48% all-picks baseline, PL's top tiers clear it (68% · 60%) and BP's top tiers are too thin to call (36% · 46% on n=11 · n=28).

Rows are overlapping lenses on the same picks, not a partition — one start can be a PL Auto Start and a Verdict SIT at once, so they never sum to the headline; each group is read against its own baseline row.

⚠ Dissent check — the override is ahead so far — 67% GOOD+ on n=6. Splits are picks the board started over our MIZ sit-call (vs 48% for all live picks).

Calibration — do our numbers mean anything? · full season, 2026-06-29→2026-09-06 · 970 graded picks · MIZ on 430, BP on 230, Verdict on 451

The ladder above asks whether the tiers sort. This asks the harder question: is the number a probability — when the board says 7, do 70% of those starts come back GOOD+? Bins are equal-count and merge until every one clears n=15; the walk-forward rows are scored against a model that only ever saw earlier days.

Score bin	n	mean	GOOD+	95% CI
MIZ score → P(GOOD+) · our matchup score, 0–10 · live rows only · n=430
MIZ 0.5–3.3	95	2.6	40%	31%–50%
MIZ 3.4–4.0	83	3.7	45%	34%–55%
MIZ 4.1–4.8	89	4.4	49%	39%–60%
MIZ 4.9–5.5	79	5.2	54%	43%–65%
MIZ 5.6–8.9	84	6.4	62%	51%–72%
All MIZ-scored picks	430	—	50%	—
BP score → P(GOOD+) · RelieverRecon's published rating · includes git-backfilled rows · n=230
BP 4.6–6.6	48	6.1	35%	23%–50%
BP 6.7–7.3	44	7.0	52%	38%–66%
BP 7.4–7.7	47	7.5	45%	31%–59%
BP 7.8–8.4	47	8.1	47%	33%–61%
BP 8.5–10.0	44	9.1	43%	30%–58%
All BP-scored picks	230	—	44%	—
Verdict tier → P(GOOD+) · the consensus call itself · live rows only
AUTO START	30	—	70%	52%–83%
START	60	—	60%	47%–71%
DART	119	—	47%	38%–56%
SIT	242	—	45%	39%–52%

Out-of-sample	n	value	vs
Walk-forward probability · logistic on MIZ, refit daily on earlier days only · from 2026-08-05 · 32 days
Brier — our probability	366	0.246	lower is better
Brier — flat base rate to date	366	0.255	we win by 0.008
Brier — verdict-tier history	366	0.253	we win by 0.007
Log loss — our probability	366	0.685	lower is better
ECE — our probability	366	0.059	5 equal-count bins
ECE bins · predicted p vs what actually happened
said 32%–47%	74	39%	off by 4%
said 47%–51%	73	42%	off by 7%
said 51%–56%	73	40%	off by 14%
said 56%–60%	73	56%	off by 1%
said 60%–74%	73	60%	off by 4%
Verdict — usable with caveats: ECE 0.059 over n=366 out-of-sample picks (≤0.03 well calibrated · ≤0.07 usable with caveats); edges the flat base rate on Brier (0.246 vs 0.255, a thin margin; log-loss ~coin-flip).

🔥 Today's Hitter Streamers

Top 10 FA bats for today's slate · score = split vs SP hand (35%) + SP softness (35%) + bat quality (15%) + trailing 15 days (10%) + park (5%) · facing an elite arm fades the score hard (feast on weak pitchers).

#	Hitter	Matchup	Why	Legs	Score
1	AUTO STARTMickey GasperC · 15% own	vs LAA · Rodriguez RHP	szn .377 xwOBAL15: 1.433 OPS (49 PA)L14 contact +6.0 (.598 xwOBAcon, 26 BBE)usually bats 2nd (×1.10)beats 2 of 2 eligible startersRodriguez .353 allowed · soft SP0.974 OPS vs RHP (136 AB)BOS plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	108
2	STARTTy France1B · 15% own	vs WSH · Irvin RHP	szn .332 xwOBAL15: 0.866 OPS (56 PA)L14 contact -0.8 (.353 xwOBAcon, 31 BBE)usually bats 4th (×1.05)beats 1 of 3 eligible startersIrvin .350 allowed · soft SP0.882 OPS vs RHP (265 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	78
3	STARTLuis CampusanoC · 1% own	vs WSH · Irvin RHP	szn .344 xwOBAL15: 0.673 OPS (33 PA)L14 contact +3.4 (.445 xwOBAcon, 18 BBE)usually bats 6th (×0.98)beats 1 of 2 eligible startersIrvin .350 allowed · soft SP0.908 OPS vs RHP (130 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	76
4	STARTAndrew Vaughn1B · 4% own	vs CHC · Boyd LHP	szn .337 xwOBAL15: 0.917 OPS (37 PA)L14 contact -3.3 (.296 xwOBAcon, 23 BBE)usually bats 5thbeats 2 of 4 eligible startersBoyd .337 allowed · soft SP0.971 OPS vs LHP (104 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	75
5	AUTO STARTWade MecklerCF · 1% own	@ BOS · Bello RHP	szn .311 xwOBAL15: 0.862 OPS (39 PA)L14 contact -1.3 (.341 xwOBAcon, 31 BBE)usually bats 3rd (×1.07)fills OF needbeats 3 of 5 eligible startersBello .355 allowed · soft SP0.8 OPS vs RHP (207 AB)BOS plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	71
6	AUTO STARTTyler TolbertCF · 1% own	vs AZ · Law RHP	szn .296 xwOBAusually bats 8th (×0.93)fills OF needbeats 6 of 8 eligible startersshort side vs RHP — 45% of ABLaw .450 allowed · soft SP0.856 OPS vs RHP (52 AB)KC plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	67
7	AUTO STARTDrew GilbertRF · 1% own	vs STL · McGreevy RHP	szn .325 xwOBAL15: 0.679 OPS (44 PA)L14 contact +1.5 (.403 xwOBAcon, 29 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)fills OF needbeats 3 of 5 eligible startersMcGreevy .352 allowed · soft SP0.766 OPS vs RHP (268 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	66
8	AUTO STARTTurner HillCF · 0% own	vs STL · McGreevy RHP	szn .346 xwOBAL15: 0.820 OPS (50 PA)L14 contact -1.7 (.333 xwOBAcon, 37 BBE)usually bats 5thfills OF needbeats 3 of 5 eligible startersMcGreevy .352 allowed · soft SP0.78 OPS vs RHP (43 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	64
9	STARTIsiah Kiner-FalefaSS · 0% own	vs LAA · Rodriguez RHP	szn .307 xwOBAusually bats 6th (×0.98)beats 3 of 6 eligible startersRodriguez .353 allowed · soft SP0.795 OPS vs RHP (90 AB)BOS plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	63
10	AUTO STARTMichael Massey2B · 1% own	vs AZ · Law RHP	szn .306 xwOBAL14 contact +3.4 (.446 xwOBAcon, 16 BBE)usually bats 6th (×0.98)beats 2 of 3 eligible startersLaw .450 allowed · soft SP0.729 OPS vs RHP (272 AB)KC plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	62

Tiers vs YOUR lineup tonight — median starter 48, worst Henry Bolte (14). AUTO START = beats the median eligible starter.

TBD starter = neutral SP + split legs until the probable posts (refresh upgrades it). Splits need 30+ AB vs that hand. IL bats are excluded; bats who rarely start against tonight's hand are dropped. Doubleheaders: legs average the ends he plays, and everyday bats get up to a ×1.50 volume boost. Lineup slot scales the score by expected PAs from the bat's usual spot (leadoff ×1.12 … 9-hole ×0.90, modal over the last ~10 played days) — his typical order, not today's card, since that posts after waivers run.

🎯 FA Hitters — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Kyle Schwarber

1Michael ConfortoLF · ChC · 0.5%HEATER

87/99 heat on 19 BBE with 0.600 xwOBAcon; .417 BA, 2 HR, 4 RBI last 7 — elite contact quality corroborated by production

Heat 87 · 19 BBE · ATC 44 PA · 2 HR · 0 SB · 0.220 · L7 0.417 · 2 HR · sim +0.2 pts

2Mickey Gasper

C · Bos · 14.8% · HEATER

87/99 heat on trusted 26-BBE sample, 0.598 xwOBAcon, 5 HR L14; best-validated heater in the pool

Heat 87 · 26 BBE · ATC 23 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.247 · L7 0.261 · 3 HR · sim +0.2 pts

3Justin Foscue

2B · Tex · 0.2% · HEATER

83/99 heat on largest sample (28 BBE); 3 HR, 8 RBI L14, 2 HR 6 RBI last 7 — volume corroborates the signal

Heat 83 · 28 BBE · ATC 25 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.223 · L7 0.333 · 2 HR · sim +0.2 pts

4Xander Bogaerts

SS · SD · 18.5% · CATEGORY FIT

2 SB last 7 directly attacks MIZ's razor-thin SB gap of 1; everyday role, ATC projects another 2 SB RoS

ATC 80 PA · 2 HR · 2 SB · 0.260 · L7 0.238 · 0 HR · sim +0.2 pts

5Lars Nootbaar

LF · Ari · 2.6% · UPSIDE

85/99 heat, 94.4 EV on 25 BBE is a trusted sample; weak L7 production is the only knock on an otherwise clean profile

Heat 85 · 25 BBE · ATC 57 PA · 2 HR · 1 SB · 0.248 · L7 0.231 · 0 HR · sim +0.2 pts

Passed on: Brett Baty's 82/99 heat sits on only 16 BBE and his ATC projection (wRC+ 93, 0.236 AVG) undercuts any AVG benefit MIZ might seek, making him a redundant fifth pick behind stronger-corroborated options.

💪 Hitter List Rankings

PL Top 150 hitters · your bats + top FAs.

On Hitter List · 16 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Hitter	MLB	Pos	Chg	AVG	xwOBA	HR	SB	RoS	Chu’s Take
16	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	DH	+3	.241	.367	42	3	124
18	Randy Arozarena	SEA	OF	-	.273	.348	22	21	127
21	Miguel Vargas	CHW	1B/3B	+19	.252	.385	30	16	115	Miguel Vargas has returned to the levels we saw early this summer and that really revs my engine. He’s one of those players who has shown…
36	Yandy Díaz	TB	1B	+3	.305	.358	21	3	122
46	Zach Neto	LAA	SS	+11	.238	.305	23	19	111	Zach Neto has been a monster over the last nine games, with 17 hits, 18 combined runs and RBI (a seven RBI night helps), and seven extra-…
59	Jac Caglianone	KC	1B/OF	+13	.283	.357	23	6	107	Jac Caglianone still hits a lot of grounders, but not quite as many as before (the rolling 15-game rate is a hair below 50%) and the stri…
72	Ty France	SD	1B	+12	.290	.332	20	1	109
77	Royce Lewis	MIN	1B/2B/3B	-15	.237	.315	14	14	96	Royce Lewis is streaky. We just gotta deal with that.
85	Cole Carrigg	COL	SS/OF	-22	.268	.320	7	9	67	The strikeouts have creeped up on Cole Carrigg , up to 32% over his last 11 games (which is, conveniently, exactly 50 plate appearances).…
106	Luis Robert Jr.	NYM	OF	+UR	.221	.321	11	2	100
109	Mickey Gasper	BOS	C	+UR	.276	.377	8	0	104	Mickey Gasper — Fantastic mustache, first of all. Second of all, the batted ball data suggests what’s happening of late is very real, tho…
115	Kaelen Culpepper	MIN	SS	+UR	.297	.313	3	1	90	Kaelen Culpepper — Culpepper puts a lot of balls in play and it’s working out so far. The BABIP Gods can be cruel, though. The 55 point g…
119	Rafael Flores Jr.	PIT	C/1B	+UR	.223	.339	7	0	83
133	Connor Norby	COL	1B/2B/3B	+UR	.223	.299	6	8	91	Connor Norby still has huge contact issues but the guy can hit the ball hard in the air and plays for Colorado so stream away.
135	Henry Bolte	ATH	OF	+UR	.274	.311	8	16	93	Henry Bolte is leading off again and should get some games in Sacramento soon, if you need a streamer.
143	Alejandro Kirk	TOR	C	+UR	.272	.302	8	1	114
145	Tyler Stephenson	CIN	C	-33	.249	.335	15	0	94
146	Ryan Jeffers	MIN	C	-29	.269	.357	14	1	116
148	Andruw Monasterio	BOS	2B/SS	-26	.244	.297	6	4	89
149	Dylan Crews	WSH	OF	-35	.217	.307	10	9	83
150	Luis Rengifo	SD	2B/3B/OF	-24	.240	.304	4	6	—
TS	Bryce Eldridge	SF	1B	—	.262	.356	15	1	100	Bryce Eldridge (1B, SFG) — Power prospects can often take a while to really shine.
TS	Pedro Ramirez	ChC	2B/3B	—	.263	.289	4	7	92	Pedro Ramirez (2B/3B, CHC) — Hitting well when he plays, which is not very often.
TS	Walker Jenkins	Min	OF	—	.115	.240	1	1	102	Walker Jenkins (OF, MIN) — Jenkins will get the call today after a white-hot month in the triple-A. He’s worth a scoop in most leagues, E…
UR	James Wood	Wsh	OF	—	.268	.417	30	18	126	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Ralphy Velazquez	Cle	1B	—	—	—	—	—	83	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.

🔥 Heat Board

Hottest ACTIVE free-agent bats by contact quality, 8/24–9/6 · Heat = percentile vs all MLB bats over the same window (xwOBAcon 30 · EV 20 · Brl 20 · HH 15 · K 10 · BB 5) · min 15 BBE to qualify (smaller samples live in the HM rail) · IL excluded.

Mickey Gasper

C · Bos · 14.8% own · xwOBAcon .598 · EV 90.4 · Brl 23.1% · 26 BBE

▲ .068 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.276	8	22	23	0
L14	.344	5	6	8	0

Michael Conforto

LF · ChC · 0.5% own · xwOBAcon .600 · EV 90.7 · Brl 15.8% · 19 BBE

▲ .176 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.241	14	38	31	1
L14	.417	3	7	5	0

Sean Murphy

C · Atl · 1.0% own · xwOBAcon .538 · EV 92.7 · Brl 18.8% · 16 BBE

▲ .125 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.221	3	8	8	0
L14	.346	3	7	7	0

Lars Nootbaar

LF · Ari · 2.6% own · xwOBAcon .423 · EV 94.4 · Brl 12.0% · 25 BBE

▲ .057 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.233	6	28	29	2
L14	.290	2	7	4	0

Justin Foscue

2B · Tex · 0.2% own · xwOBAcon .453 · EV 92.7 · Brl 17.9% · 28 BBE

▲ .059 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.265	11	31	22	0
L14	.324	3	8	5	0

Brett Baty

3B · NYM · 2.6% own · xwOBAcon .490 · EV 92.1 · Brl 18.8% · 16 BBE

▲ .139 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.225	9	47	46	5
L14	.364	1	7	2	0

Amed Rosario

3B · NYY · 0.6% own · xwOBAcon .405 · EV 93.7 · Brl 9.5% · 21 BBE

▲ .095 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.238	10	32	26	2
L14	.333	0	4	3	1

Michael Massey

2B · KC · 0.9% own · xwOBAcon .446 · EV 92.9 · Brl 6.2% · 16 BBE

▲ .033 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.280	11	45	46	3
L14	.313	0	1	0	1

Joc Pederson

DH · Tex · 2.2% own · xwOBAcon .415 · EV 92.8 · Brl 18.8% · 16 BBE

▲ .005 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.235	25	50	55	2
L14	.240	3	4	6	0

Leo Bernal

C · StL · 0.7% own · xwOBAcon .409 · EV 95.8 · Brl 5.3% · 19 BBE

▲ .000 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.333	1	6	5	0
L14	.333	1	6	5	0

Honorable mention · hottest L7 (8/31–9/6), not yet on the board · tiny samples — peek, don't trust

Francisco Alvarez

C · NYM

.737 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .200 L7

Alex Freeland

3B · LAD

.382 xwOBAcon

11 BBE · .091 L7

Mark Vientos

3B · NYM

.424 xwOBAcon

10 BBE · .333 L7

Henry Davis

C · Pit

.449 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .250 L7

Yainer Diaz

C · Hou

.425 xwOBAcon

12 BBE · .313 L7

Jacob Gonzalez

2B · Pit

.480 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .364 L7

🎯 FA Pitchers — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Andres Munoz

1Andrew PainterSP · Phi · 17.8%HEATER

98/99 suppression on 31 BBE trusted sample — elite contact suppression justifies ATC ERA/WHIP bleed risk

Supp 98 · 31 BBE · ATC 16.0 IP · 1 W · 13 K · 4.71 · 1.37 · sim -0.5 pts

2Juan Morillo

RP · Ari · 3.4% · CATEGORY FIT

Confirmed closer role, 65/99 suppression on 15 BBE minimum threshold, saves at rank 3 protectable

Supp 65 · 15 BBE · ATC 7.0 IP · 1 W · 7 K · 3.83 · 1.36 · 1 SV · Closer · sim -0.1 pts

3Andrew Kittredge

RP · Bal · 4.1% · FLOOR

Confirmed closer, best ATC ERA/WHIP of saves candidates; suppression concern partially offset by role certainty

Supp 8 · 17 BBE · ATC 8.0 IP · 1 W · 7 K · 3.80 · 1.20 · 2 SV · Closer · sim -0.1 pts

4Joey Cantillo

RP · Cle · 26.0% · BEST VALUE

Most projected IP/K of any SP, 4.05 ERA acceptable, 67/99 suppression on trusted 36 BBE — volume matters behind pace

Supp 67 · 36 BBE · ATC 20.0 IP · 1 W · 21 K · 4.05 · 1.33 · PL #12 · sim -0.5 pts

5Emmet Sheehan

SP · LAD · 39.1% · UPSIDE

Best ATC WHIP among SPs at 1.15; #9 expert rank, LAD ratios backstop, protects ERA/WHIP dominance

ATC 13.0 IP · 1 W · 14 K · 4.01 · 1.15 · PL #9 · sim -0.4 pts

Passed on: Jacob Webb is a confirmed Cubs closer but 13/99 suppression on contact allowed with 89.1 EV and 0.446 xwOBAcon is a genuine ratio bomb threat to MIZ's #1 ERA/WHIP — role is real but the arm is too dangerous to add over current options.

⚾ Pitcher List Rankings

PL Top 100 SP · your arms + top FAs.

On Pitcher List · 6 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Pitcher	MLB	Chg	ERA	xERA	K/9	RoS	Pollack’s Take
1	Jacob Misiorowski	MIL	-	1.97	2.08	13.2	3.40	Like a base set Charizard, Misiorowski’s not gonna stop being dope.
9	Blake Snell	LAD	+7	1.97	2.11	12.1	3.31	#HotSnellSummer is in full swing.
10	Dylan Cease	TOR	-1	2.25	2.73	12.7	3.45	Like a perfect burger without the condiments to hit all your macros, Cease gives you everything except for a stable WHIP due to his infla…
20	Kyle Harrison	MIL	+8	3.66	3.73	10.9	4.19	With a dominant outing, he muted our concerns, but Harrison’s still displaying decreased velocity and not commanding as well as he did in…
22	Eury Pérez	MIA	-4	3.72	4.04	9.6	3.91	Pérez has the stuff to be an ace, but there’s polishing to do in the command and game plan departments to unlock his full potential.
30	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	-4	3.54	3.65	6.5	4.17	Baseball’s premier innings eater hasn’t ruined his appetite.
38	Jacob Lopez	ATH	+6	4.71	3.40	8.8	4.55	It’s the 2025 hot streak all over again. Enjoy the ride, ya’ll!
39	Dustin May	MIL	-	4.69	4.30	8.6	4.18	May got Singled Out in a disastrous performance, but his stuff is still dope, and his new situation is ideal. Higher win chance, great de…
40	Walbert Ureña	LAA	-	2.74	3.40	8.5	4.49	Armed with upper-90s heaters and one of the best changeups in baseball, Ureña has hit few speed bumps. If that developing sweeper becomes…
43	Andrew Painter	PHI	+UR	5.55	4.33	7.8	4.71	From off The List to inside the Top 50, Painter has stolen our hearts with an improved heater (97+ mph with 17-18″ iVB) and emphasis on r…
45	Peter Lambert	HOU	-4	3.67	3.65	8.8	4.61	Lambert’s stumble last time was a product of being Singled Out . He’s been reliable all year, but we should be recognizing that Holly is …
46	Jared Jones	PIT	-8	4.46	3.63	10.5	3.97	The stuff is top-tier, but he’s still shaking off the Tommy John surgery rust with his command and the tight leash the Pirates have on hi…
54	Joey Cantillo	CLE	-8	3.81	4.04	9.6	4.05	Efficiency is a problem, but Cantillo is doing everything we want. More curveballs, faster fastballs, and supportive cutters. Throw more …
56	Shane Bieber	TOR	+14	4.37	5.95	7.1	4.05	Bieber is back in business. His heater looked awesome in The Trop, and his offspeed pitches are being the CSW monsters they need to be to…
57	Tyler Mahle	ATL	-	4.05	4.12	8.5	4.05	Mahle’s command and velocity have been stellar since returning from the IL in late June. He’s got an even better situation pitching in At…
58	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	-	3.53	3.76	5.9	4.67	Despite what the line suggests, Pfaadt’s last start wasn’t an end to his Vargas Rule . It was a textbook Careful, Icarus with a three-run…

🔒 Closer Chart

Save targets · roles + regression flags.

BLUEEntrenched closer (highest leverage)GREENNext man up / committee pieceYELLOWSetup, 8th-inning leverageORANGESpeculative / lower priorityMAGENTAHigh-upside future / multi-inning

	Pitcher	Tm	Role	SV	SVHD	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K/9	Rtg / Own
Yours on the chart
—	Andrés Muñoz	Seattle Mariners	CL	25	25	52.3	4.13	1.15	3.18	14.3	5.0 · —
—	Louis Varland	Toronto Blue Jays	CL	33	38	70.7	1.15	0.98	2.19 ↑	11.1	5.0 · —
Top 5 FA closers (by team rating)
—	Andrew Kittredge	Baltimore Orioles	CL	9	18	44.0	3.27	1.39	4.04	7.6	4.0 · 4%
—	Jacob Webb	Chicago Cubs	CL	9	17	60.0	3.15	1.23	4.06	9.8	4.0 · 5%
—	Dylan Smith	San Francisco Giants	CL	4	11	31.7	3.13	1.33	3.68	11.7	4.0 · 1%
—	Steven Cruz HLR	Kansas City Royals	CL	6	11	52.7	4.27	1.23	4.09	9.7	3.5 · 1%
	Michael Petersen	Miami Marlins	CL	1	24	57.3	3.30	1.13	3.40	10.5	3.0 · 2%

ERA cell: green <3.00 · red >4.50. xERA arrow: ↓ ERA likely to fall (buy) · ↑ ERA likely to rise (sell). Triggers when |xERA−ERA| ≥ 1.00.

✂️ Cut List

Drop priority · value, form, pedigree, role.

47	Royce Lewis 3B · Min low TV (17) sim cost ~0	TV 17 Rd 13
27	Kyle Harrison SP · Mil mid TV (43); cold last 7d; UFDA — easy to drop; BUT top-tier keeper sim cost ~0	TV 43 UFDA
15	Blake Snell SP · LAD BUT strong RoS (3.31 ERA) sim cost ~0	TV 80 Rd 8
14	Joe Ryan SP · Min BUT high-pedigree (Rd 5) sim cost ~0	TV 72 Rd 5
11	Sandy Alcantara SP · Mia BUT solid keeper sim cost ~0	TV 72 Rd 14

Higher score = drop sooner — top 5 by score, and only 8+ reaches the board, so the number has no ceiling and is only comparable within this list. The sim line is a roto-sim marginal (cut vs. keep on one shared set of draws), not a measured cost. Pedigree + named closers shielded.

🌱 Stash List

PL's top prospects · grab them cheap.

Hitters

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 24: Top 10 Hitting Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + PSS + PFV + age + 40-man + path.

20 available — 1 yours

R. Velazquez YOURS

1B/C · CLE · AA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

29·2·.290

M. Arroyo

SS · SEA · AAA · 21 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

18·17·.281

J. Tibbs III

OF · LAD · AAA · 23 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

28·9·.291

S. Thompson

OF · COL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

12·19·.306

Z. Hope

OF · DET · AA · 21 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

28·24·.287

C. Cannarella

OF · MIA · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

15·21·.339

C. Ingle

C · CLE · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

19·2·.289

J. Long

1B · CHC · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

15·3·.279

M. Anderson

2B · DET · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

16·5·.303

B. Davidson

OF · SFG · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

September

Szn

28·19·.281

S. Walcott

3B/SS · TEX · AA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

9·9·.324

J. Melton

OF · TB · AAA · 25 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

8·28·.272

H. Mendez

OF · MIN · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

12·4·.282

S. King

SS/2B/3B · WSN · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

19·14·.310

R. Ward

LF · LAD · AAA · 28 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

20·7·.246

J. Made

SS · MIL · AA · 19 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

13·36·.269

K. Alderman

OF · MIA · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

18·10·.258

R. Clifford

1B · NYM · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

16·8·.173

P. Harber

3B · SFG · AAA · 24 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

'27

Szn

17·4·.275

D. Crisantes

2B/3B · ARI · AAA · 21 · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

blocked

Szn

9·0·.288

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

Pitchers

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 24: Top 10 Pitching Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + L3 quality + FV + age + 40-man + path.

28 available

J. Tong

SP · NYM · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

133K·4.46

T. Johnson

SP · TBR · AAA · 24 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

86K·2.98

B. Mautz

SP · STL · AAA · 24 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

100K·4.28

L. Perales

SP · WSN · AAA · 23 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

102K·4.17

H. Smith

SP · CHW · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

August 1st

Szn

110K·3.51

M. Ullola

SP · HOU · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

100K·4.17

C. Seymour

SP · SFG · AAA · 27 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

87K·4.26

K. Curtis

SP · PIT · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

115K·4.53

R. Snelling

SP · MIA · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

46K·2.38

D. Sandlin

SP · CHW · AAA · 25 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

99K·3.35

C. Dana

SP · LAA · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

83K·5.44

J. Ritchie

SP · ATL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

133K·3.82

O. Murphy

SP · ATL · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

122K·3.74

G. Wood

SP · PHI · AA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

'26

Szn

134K·4.40

J. Wenninger

SP · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

115K·4.24

M. Bratt

SP · ARI · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

82K·3.92

M. Forret

SP · BAL · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

125K·3.89

T. Bremner

SP · LAA · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

92K·4.08

R. Sloan

SP · SEA · AA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

124K·3.70

E. Rodriguez

SP · NYY · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

120K·3.19

B. Garrett

SP · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

June 1st

Szn

110K·3.94

T. McDougal

SP · CHW · AAA · 23 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

49K·4.43

D. Davalillo

SP · TEX · AAA · 24 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

100K·4.87

A. Kelly

SP · PIT · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

76K·4.33

B. Hopkins

SP · TBR · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

120K·5.23

C. Crow

SP · MIL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

101K·3.74

T. Gibson

SP · BAL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

102K·4.99

L. Braun

SP · ATL · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

105K·4.02

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

🔭 14 not a 2026 factor — Bryce Mayer · Jamie Arnold · Anthony Eyanson · Liam Doyle · Jackson Ferris · Tyson Hardin · Jackson Wolf · Jurrangelo Cijntje · Daniel Eagen · Christian Zazueta · Joseph Dzierwa · Jaxon Wiggins · Karson Milbrandt · Jonathan Santucci

💼 Trades

Buy-low targets · league trade history.

Top Buy-Lows

Rebound candidates · suggested offers.

Hitters

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Juan Soto RF · NYM · GARR · jregarris +1.2σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.274 / xBA 0.294 · xwOBA 0.416	100%	158 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Kyle Schwarber DH · comparable value (TV 100 vs target 100)
📈 BUY-LOW	Heriberto Hernandez LF · Mia · FRAN · francisw789 +1.3σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.230 / xBA 0.248 · xwOBA 0.355	11%	100 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 34 vs target 33)
📈 BUY-LOW	JJ Bleday CF · Cin · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.2σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.219 / xBA 0.242 · xwOBA 0.346	22%	100 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Henry Bolte RF + Royce Lewis 3B · two-piece package (TV 22 vs target 27)
↑ mild buy	Taylor Ward LF · Sea · GoOs · My Best Guys +0.7σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.224 / xBA 0.241 · xwOBA 0.333	58%	119 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Zach Neto SS · comparable value (TV 60 vs target 60)
↑ mild buy	Dominic Canzone RF · Sea · GARR · jregarris +0.6σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.254 / xBA 0.269 · xwOBA 0.355	12%	114 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 34 vs target 34)
↑ mild buy	Kyle Stowers LF · Mia · KNIG · TKHOO +0.7σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.248 / xBA 0.234 · xwOBA 0.336	29%	111 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Henry Bolte RF + Royce Lewis 3B + +$3 FAAB · two-piece package (TV 22 vs target 28)
↑ mild buy	Jarren Duran LF · Bos · RAGE · glhoward40 +0.8σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.202 / xBA 0.234 · xwOBA 0.296	67%	100 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Zach Neto SS · comparable value (TV 60 vs target 57)
↑ mild buy	Heliot Ramos LF · NYY · DORN · Lambertmt48 +0.6σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.241 / xBA 0.255 · xwOBA 0.326	10%	104 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Royce Lewis 3B · comparable value (TV 17 vs target 17)
↑ mild buy	Ronald Acuna Jr. RF · Atl · GoOs · My Best Guys +0.8σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.255 / xBA 0.258 · xwOBA 0.364	98%	129 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Blake Snell SP + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 80 vs target 86)
📈 BUY-LOW	Mike Trout OF · LAA · KNIG · TKHOO +1.3σ buy-low · OF — fits a need · BA 0.243 / xBA 0.253 · xwOBA 0.375	91%	126 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Joe Ryan SP · comparable value (TV 72 vs target 76)

Pitchers

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Kodai Senga SP · NYM · KRTZ · FratSkins +1.2σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 7.11 vs xERA 4.99	10%	3.88 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Ralphy Velazquez 1B · comparable value (TV 2 vs target 4)
📈 BUY-LOW	Kade Anderson SP · Sea · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.5σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 5.40 vs xERA 3.15	18%	4.61 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Henry Bolte RF + Royce Lewis 3B + +$4 FAAB · two-piece package (TV 22 vs target 29)
↑ mild buy	Freddy Peralta SP · TB · KNIG · TKHOO +0.7σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.96 vs xERA 3.90	73%	4.03 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Zach Neto SS · comparable value (TV 60 vs target 58)
↑ mild buy	Bryce Miller SP · Sea · BLOB · crenshawh19 +0.5σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.01 vs xERA 3.32	30%	4.15 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 34 vs target 38)

League History

Completed trades · frozen grade at the deal + live grade now.

Side	Sent	At deal	Now	Trend
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Andy Pages	A- +7	A+ +45	▲ up
Camp MVP	Pete Crow-Armstrong	C -7	F -45	▼ down
Team Knighton ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Team Knighton	Matthew Boyd	F -22	F -22
Camp MVP	Kenley Jansen	A+ +22	A+ +22
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Worst2First 2026-08-10
Miz-waukee’s Best	Charlie Condon, Payton Tolle	A+ +50	A+ +33	▼ down
Worst2First	Dylan Cease	F -50	F -33	▲ up
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Dorn and Associates LLC 2026-08-05
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Travis Bazzana, George Lombard Jr., Nolan McLean	A+ +144	A+ +105	▼ down
Dorn and Associates LLC	Jackson Chourio, Jhoan Duran, Brice Turang, David Bednar	F -144	F -105	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-07-31
Miz-waukee’s Best	Samuel Basallo, Kade Anderson	A- +8	A+ +20	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine	Blake Snell	C -8	F -20	▼ down
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Team Knighton 2026-07-23
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Jo Adell, Jacob deGrom	F -49	F -63	▼ down
Team Knighton	Trea Turner	A+ +49	A+ +63	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine ⇄ Miz-waukee’s Best 2026-07-19
Ramirez Against the Machine	Sandy Alcantara	F -42	F -68	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best	Josh Jung	A+ +42	A+ +68	▲ up
I need Buck Showalter ⇄ Hit the Damn Ball You Bums 2026-06-19
I need Buck Showalter	Nasim Nunez	A+ +28	A +11	▼ down
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Justin Wrobleski	F -28	D -11	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ The Boys of Summer 2026-06-12
Miz-waukee’s Best	Chandler Simpson	A +10	A- +7	▼ down
The Boys of Summer	$30 FAAB	D -10	C -7	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-05-01
Miz-waukee’s Best	Kenley Jansen	—	A- +6
Camp MVP	$30 FAAB	A- +3	C -6	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-04-22
Miz-waukee’s Best	Nathan Eovaldi, $70 FAAB	—	F -41
Ramirez Against the Machine	Jac Caglianone	A+ +60	A+ +41	▼ down

🔻 Sell-High — My Roster

Surface line outrunning the underlying skill — trade-value peaks. σ = his surface-stat z-score minus his Statcast-skill z-score, both against the league reference for his side — bigger σ = further ahead of the skill. Pair with Buy-Low Targets.

Verdict	Player	Own	Surface vs expected	Contact	2027 keeper
↓ SHOP	Henry Bolte RF · Oak 0.62σ sell-high · RF · BA 0.274 / xBA 0.247 · xwOBA 0.311 — test the market, don't force it	5%	BA 0.274 / xBA 0.247 +.027 wOBA 0.331 / xwOBA 0.311 +.020	HH 47.9% · Brl/PA 4.3%	25th · +2 rds vs mkt
↓ SHOP	Yandy Diaz 1B · TB 0.60σ sell-high · 1B · BA 0.305 / xBA 0.290 · xwOBA 0.358 — test the market, don't force it	93%	BA 0.305 / xBA 0.290 +.015 wOBA 0.365 / xwOBA 0.358 +.007	HH 48.5% · Brl/PA 5.5%	7th · +1 rd vs mkt
HOLD — KEEPER PRICE	Louis Varland RP · Tor 0.44σ sell-high · RP · ERA 1.15 vs xERA 2.19 — only move for keeper-grade return	87%	ERA 1.15 / xERA 2.19 -1.04	Brl 4.1% allowed	22nd · +16 rds vs mkt

👥 Your Roster

Your roster · news + buy/sell signals.

News (last 24h)

Player news · last 24h.

Joe Ryan Reinstated from injured list
Mon 09-07 12:00 AM
The Twins activated Ryan (glute) from the 15-day injured list Monday.
Joe Ryan Fantasy baseball lineup advice for Monday: Look to Rogers in Labor Day slate
Sun 09-06 08:38 PM
Everything you need to know to set your fantasy baseball lineups for Monday's MLB action.

Leverage Buys/Sells

Buy/sell windows · surface vs. underlying.

Hitters

Player	Pos	MLB	BA	xBA	wOBA	xwOBA	Brl%	Own%	Signal
James Wood	LF	Wsh	0.268	0.275	0.396	0.417	100.0	99.1	📈 BUY-LOW
Kyle Schwarber	DH	Phi	0.241	0.240	0.376	0.367	99.0	99.5	📈 BUY-LOW
Miguel Vargas	3B	ChW	0.252	0.269	0.367	0.385	90.0	95.1	📈 BUY-LOW
Bryce Eldridge	1B	SF	0.262	0.257	0.354	0.356	74.0	10.8	↑ mild buy
Zach Neto	SS	LAA	0.238	0.210	0.328	0.305	74.0	60.7	fair
Jac Caglianone DTD	RF	KC	0.283	0.281	0.356	0.357	90.0	55.9	fair
Randy Arozarena	LF	Sea	0.273	0.259	0.368	0.348	52.0	94.0	fair
Cole Carrigg	CF	Col	0.268	0.255	0.344	0.320	—	12.6	fair
Ryan Jeffers	C	Min	0.269	0.255	0.377	0.357	73.0	42.5	fair
Yandy Diaz	1B	TB	0.305	0.290	0.365	0.358	48.0	92.7	↓ mild fade
Henry Bolte	RF	Oak	0.274	0.247	0.331	0.311	46.0	5.1	↓ mild fade
Walker Jenkins	CF	Min	0.115	0.139	0.248	0.240	—	6.2	—
Kaelen Culpepper	SS	Min	0.297	0.257	0.350	0.313	—	6.8	fair
Royce Lewis	3B	Min	0.237	0.242	0.309	0.315	73.0	14.6	fair
Ralphy Velazquez	1B	Cle	—	—	—	—	—	0.7	—
Pedro Ramirez	3B	ChC	0.263	0.249	0.317	0.289	—	3.1	fair

Pitchers

Pitcher	Pos	MLB	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K-BB%	xwOBA-a	Brl%-a	Own%	Signal
Blake Snell	SP	LAD	32.0	1.97	1.09	2.11	22.0	0.226	1.4	90.1	↑ mild buy
Andres Munoz	RP	Sea	52.3	4.13	1.15	3.18	29.0	0.277	8.8	79.4	↑ mild buy
Joe Ryan	SP	Min	125.7	4.08	1.15	3.50	21.2	0.290	10.5	89.2	fair
Jacob Misiorowski	SP	Mil	155.0	1.97	0.79	2.08	31.8	0.224	3.8	99.5	fair
Sandy Alcantara	SP	Mia	195.7	3.54	1.19	3.65	11.3	0.296	5.1	89.1	fair
Kyle Harrison	SP	Mil	110.7	3.66	1.27	3.73	21.4	0.299	8.3	63.7	fair
Dylan Cease	SP	Tor	156.3	2.25	1.04	2.73	25.1	0.257	5.1	99.3	fair
Eury Perez	SP	Mia	135.3	3.72	1.18	4.04	15.5	0.310	10.2	77.7	fair
Louis Varland	RP	Tor	70.7	1.15	0.98	2.19	24.7	0.230	4.1	86.9	↓ mild fade

📰 MLB News — Top Fantasy Stories

🔒 Keepers — 2027 Slate

Peter's model (additive): rounds-saved (cost arbitrage spine) + current skill + career-grade pedigree + sample stability + Statcast over/under-performance trend, with age-decline (33+), closer/RP, and top-30 talent adjustments. Heavy on bargain-hunting.
Claude's model (multiplicative dynasty index): EFV(2027) = (3 + skill + upside) × age_mult × pos_mult; score = EFV − cost_replacement − mookie-lock. Compounds age curve and position scarcity.
Sorted by consensus rank (average of both models). MLB-inactive players surfaced in 🚑 Return Watch below.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict	Notes
1.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	21st	#1 (+24.4)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51	UFDA-G FV 55
2.5	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	25th	#2 (+21.7)	#3 (+17.1)	A · $17	UFDA
2.5	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	22nd	#3 (+21.5)	#2 (+27.1)	S · $27
4.0	Bryce Eldridge	1B · 20yo	25th	#4 (+16.1)	#4 (+14.4)	A · $14	UFDA FV 55
5.0	Henry Bolte	RF · 21yo	25th	#5 (+14.7)	#5 (+13.8)	A · $14	UFDA FV 40
6.0	Dylan Cease	SP · 30yo	4th	#6 (+12.0)	#6 (+11.7)	A · $12
7.0	Zach Neto	SS · 25yo	10th	#7 (+11.6)	#7 (+10.3)	A · $10
8.5	Jac Caglianone	RF · 22yo	21st	#8 (+11.6)	— (+8.0)	B · $8	UFDA-G FV 55
8.5	Eury Perez	SP · 23yo	20th	— (+10.5)	#8 (+8.5)	B · $8	UFDA-G

NEW UFDA cap: Peter 3/3 · Claude 3/3 · BOTH = top 8 in both models. Peter only = his model values cost surplus more; Claude only = mine values projection / position scarcity more.

🚑 Return watch — would be keeper-eligible if they get MLB action this year. Rank shown is hypothetical (where they'd slot if eligible).

Player	Pos · Age	Cost	Peter (if elig.)	Claude (if elig.)
Ralphy Velazquez	1B · 19yo	25th	#17 (-2.0)	#13 (+1.4)

Updated Mon Sep 7 · 10:34 AM ET

🌍 League-Wide Top Keepers

Top 10 keepers · all 12 teams · both models. Yours in green.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	Team	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict
2.5	Andy Pages	CF · 25yo	BLOB	20th	#3 (+25.0)	#2 (+41.5)	S · $41
3.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	MIZ	21st	#5 (+24.4)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51
3.5	Jesus Luzardo	SP · 28yo	KNIG	21st	#1 (+27.8)	#6 (+33.4)	S · $33
3.5	Jordan Walker	RF · 24yo	GARR	25th	#2 (+27.3)	#5 (+38.7)	S · $39
4.0	Bryan Baker	RP · 31yo	DORN	25th	#4 (+24.9)	#4 (+38.7)	S · $39
6.5	Cam Schlittler	SP · 24yo	KRTZ	19th	#10 (+19.5)	#3 (+40.8)	S · $41
8.0	Ben Rice	1B · 27yo	DORN	20th	#6 (+23.3)	#10 (+24.0)	S · $24
8.0	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	MIZ	22nd	#8 (+21.5)	#8 (+27.1)	S · $27
9.0	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	MIZ	25th	#7 (+21.7)	— (+17.1)	A · $17
9.0	Riley O'Brien	RP · 31yo	THAR	17th	— (+13.8)	#7 (+30.6)	S · $31
10.0	Payton Tolle	SP · 22yo	FRST	25th	#9 (+20.8)	— (+17.1)	A · $17
10.0	Drew Rasmussen	SP · 30yo	THAR	8th	— (+13.8)	#9 (+26.0)	S · $26

Updated Mon Sep 7 · 10:34 AM ET

🏚️ Keeper Cupboards

Every team's six best keepers · shade = dual-model consensus value. Cupboard score weights the top four heavily (the slots that get kept), keepers 5–8 taper. 100 = league's best cupboard.

Team	K1	K2	K3	K4	K5	K6	Cupboard
1MIZ	MisiorowskiR21	VargasR25	VarlandR22	EldridgeR25	BolteR25	CeaseR4	100
2DORN	BakerR25	RiceR20	McLeanR20	BazzanaR25	LaraR25	PerdomoR21	88
3BLOB	PagesR20	LopezR20	SorianoR25	ScottR25	TaylorR25	LileR15	76
4KNIG	LuzardoR21	AbreuR15	deGromR13	JensenR20	MartinezR25	RodriguezR25	64
5GARR	WalkerR25	HancockR25	MessickR18	GrayR7	CanzoneR25	DinglerR22	63
6KRTZ	SchlittlerR19	BengeR25	SanojaR25	StewartR10	McGonigleR17	BurkeR25	62
7THAR	O'BrienR17	RasmussenR8	MarshR25	WilliamsR11	KeaschallR21	Jr.R16	62
8FRAN	LatzR25	CavalliR21	AntonacciR25	McCarthyR25	BurnsR5	BradishR21	59
9PEYT	SanchezR9	HendersonR25	WooR8	SaggeseR25	WetherholtR13	MayoR17	59
10GoOs	GriffinR25	GoodmanR21	BradleyR25	BurlesonR9	ReynoldsR10	GomezR25	58
11RAGE ▼ thin	EwingR25	CamineroR5	HerreraR20	BasalloR19	JonesR25	EovaldiR6	51
12FRST ▼ thin	TolleR25	WheelerR8	MuncyR18	RouppR25	SkubalR1	RumfieldR25	39

The bottom two rows are your trade marks — thin cupboards pay up for keepable pieces.

data: snap 3h · BP 13d · PL 13d · HL 10d · PSS 6h · BR 0h · FG 24h · proj 24h · closer 0h · oyster 0h · AAA-sc 12h · cookie ok