Miz-waukee’s Best — The Brandon League

Last updated Wednesday, August 26 · 11:04 AM ET

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Any player in the league universe · tap a result for the card.

☕ Morning Briefing

🏆 MIZ holds 1st at 106.0 pts — a comfortable 22.0-point cushion over #2, but watch AVG like a hawk: THAR is sitting 0.000 behind you there, and Royce Lewis's 2-for-4 with a stolen base vs. the Athletics is exactly the kind of line that defends both simultaneously. On the mound, Andres Munoz locked down a save (1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 2 K) and Kyle Harrison gave you a serviceable 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 K outing vs. the Mets, while Justin Martinez chipped in a win (1 IP, 0 ER, 1 K) vs. the Cubs — a clean sweep from the pitching staff.

⚠️ Jordan Lawlar was hit by a pitch in Tuesday's game, but per reports he already cleared concussion protocol and is expected in the lineup Wednesday — monitor but no panic needed.

📊 On the wire, Dylan Smith (RP, SF) is the sharpest add by the sim numbers — closer role confirmed, +1.5 roto delta — while Mickey Gasper (C, Bos) is running a scorching 93/99 contact heat score on 20 BBE with .664 xwOBAcon and 5 HR over his last 14 days. Both are available free agents if you're looking to move.

📰 A couple of league-wide notes worth flagging: Pete Fairbanks (owned by FRAN) landed on the IL with right median nerve irritation, opening the Marlins' ninth inning to Calvin Faucher — a closer situation to track. Sal Frelick was activated off the IL for THAR, which could nudge their AVG or SB output slightly right when you're neck-and-neck with them. Nolan Gorman was recalled to the Cardinals and is a free agent if you need 3B eligibility depth. And Tyler Glasnow is back off the 60-day IL for BLOB — a reminder that the contending teams around you are getting healthier.

ELIGIBILITYC. Carrigg SS 9/10A. Genao 2B 8/10A. Genao 3B 6/10K. Schwarber 1B 6/10

Your standing

1stof 12

106.0 roto pts +22.0 clear of 2nd

+0.5 pts vs last update

Top Gaps

SB (7.0) W (8.0)

categories below mid-pack

Score change since last update

W +0.5

🎯 Category Pressure

Category ranks vs. the league.

Rank →

Δ to #1

894

964

🥇

257

280

🥇

RBI

832

846

🥇

124

129

136

185

+56

AVG

.255

.257

+0.002

1119

1144

1224

+80

+11

+12

ERA

3.47

3.17

🥇

WHIP

1.18

1.11

🥇

📅 Yesterday's MIZ Box Scores (2026-08-25)

Loading box scores…

🏥 IL Rehab Tracker

IL players · rehab game logs.

On the IL, no rehab games yet: James Wood (IL10), Joe Ryan (IL15), Spencer Schwellenbach (IL60 · watch).

📊 League Activity (last 24h)

All adds, drops, and trades across the 12 teams.

Team	Move
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	+ Luis Robert Jr. \| − Lawrence Butler
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	+ Dustin May \| − Adrian Houser
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	+ Nick Sogard \| − Joey Ortiz
Miz-waukee’s Best	+ Angel Genao
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	+ Joey Cantillo \| − Walbert Urena

🏆 League Standings

Current roto points · 10,000-sim projected finish. FAAB = acquisition budget remaining.

99.3% to win the league · proj finish 1.0 · 101.4 roto pts

#	Team	Pts	FAAB	Win%	Proj Pts	Range	Proj Rk
1	MIZ Miz-waukee’s Best	106.0	$0	99.3%	101.4	96–106	1.0
2	FRAN Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	84.0	$74	0.7%	88.1	82–95	2.1
3	PEYT Phil Swift's Flex Seal	75.0	$35	0.0%	78.8	72–86	3.5
4	KRTZ Photogenic Nick Kurtz	75.0	$29	0.0%	78.5	72–86	3.5
5	GoOs I need Buck Showalter	73.5	$170	0.0%	71.3	65–77	4.9
6	BLOB Camp MVP	64.5	$168	0.0%	67.0	61–72	5.8
7	THAR Phil Mickeltits	62.5	$176	0.0%	59.0	53–65	7.3
8	KNIG Team Knighton	56.5	$137	0.0%	55.8	50–62	8.0
9	GARR The Boys of Summer	52.5	$155	0.0%	53.6	47–60	8.5
10	RAGE Ramirez Against the Machine	46.0	$163	0.0%	38.6	34–44	11.7
11	DORN Dorn and Associates LLC	44.0	$89	0.0%	42.3	38–48	10.9
12	FRST Worst2First	40.5	$154	0.0%	45.6	40–51	10.1

10,000 sims · fixed seed · noise CV talent 0.12 / idio 0.06 / team-cat 0.08 · assumes ATC rest-of-season rates

Your categories · projected roto points

R 12.0HR 12.0RBI 10.7SB 7.1AVG 8.3W 7.4SV 9.2K 10.7ERA 12.0WHIP 12.0

Winnable — push here: SB, AVG, W, SV.

🚨 Today's Streaming Board

147 of 200 GS · should be 165 · 18 behindBehind pace — stream aggressively

053 left · ~11.6/wk to cap · proj 178200

⏳ BP's post is late — Verdict pill is running on our score + Pitcher List for now (BP joins the top-2 once it posts).

Top FA streamers today

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Shane Bieber	vs. KCR	START	—	—	#11	Fastball shape and secondary stuff both at season-best; strong endorsement.
Peter Lambert	@ NYY	START	—	5.1	#8	Blowup attributed to misfortune after dominant stretch; back him.
Nick Lodolo	@ SF	DART	—	2.9	#14	Oracle Park bumps him up; upside intact but tier-appropriate hedge.
Matt Waldron	vs COL	DART⚠ opener	—	4.4	—	tough COL lineup, strong skills
Bubba Chandler	@ SD	DART	—	5.2	#19	Harder stuff still not converting; execution remains the issue.
J.T. Ginn	vs MIN	DART	—	4.5	#18	Borderline streamer; internal debate acknowledged, still skeptical.
Michael McGreevy	vs BAL	SIT	—	4.5	#20	Home park helps but profile too uninspiring to start.
Connor Prielipp	@ ATH	SIT	—	4.0	#22	High-stuff arsenal still uncontrolled; avoid.
Ryan Gusto	vs BOS	SITleash	—	4.7	#28	Capped innings, stuff not producing desired results; avoid.
Grayson Rodriguez	vs CLE	SIT	—	4.1	#24	Platoon vulnerability and weak breaking balls vs. Guardians.

Openers filtered: Spencer Miles

Your staff: 3.17 ERA / 1.11 WHIP · GS 147/200 — Behind pace — stream aggressively. Verdict = the best 2 of BP · our score · Pitcher List, averaged (low outlier dropped); before BP posts it's our score + PL. ⚠ = our matchup score dissented — eyeball that one. Tap a MIZ score for the reasoning.

Tomorrow · 1 of yours + top 5 FA · Thu 8/27 · BP not out yet, so pill = our score + Pitcher List

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Jacob Misiorowski	@ NYM	AUTO START	—	8.0	—	average NYM lineup, strong skills, hot recent form
Hayden Wesneski	@ NYY	DART	—	5.2	—	average NYY lineup
Sean Manaea	vs MIL	DART⚠ opener	—	4.6	—	soft MIL lineup, hot recent form, weak skills
Gabriel Hughes	@ WSH	SIT	—	3.8	—	tough WSH lineup, shaky recent form, short leash
Spencer Arrighetti	vs KC	SIT⚠ opener	—	3.2	—	average KC lineup, weak skills, hitter park
Jake Irvin	vs COL	SIT	—	2.4	—	tough COL lineup, shaky recent form, weak skills

📼 Streamer Report Card

Does the Streaming Board actually work? Every pick it showed, frozen at pick time and graded off the real box score. Two scoreboards below: first our own calls — the Verdict ladder and MIZ (our matchup score, 0–10) — then the outside lists behind them, BP (RelieverRecon's daily BP Streamers post) and PL (Pitcher List's tier ranking). Grades are recomputed from raw lines on every build — the rubric can change, the history follows.

Last 30d · 392 starts graded over 29 days · GOOD+ 52% · BLOWUP 16% · agg ERA 4.11 · WHIP 1.30 · 4.5 K/start · 420 picks logged, 16 never started, 12 awaiting a box score — not graded

Grade mix · all 392 graded starts

GEM 86 GOOD 119 OK 123 BLOWUP 64

GEM6+ IP, ≤1 ER · or 6+ IP, 8+ K, ≤2 ERGOODquality start (6+ IP, ≤3 ER) · or 5+ IP, ≤2 EROKheld the line without earning GOODBLOWUP5+ ER · or under 4 IP with 4+ ERGOOD+ = GEM + GOOD. A pick whose starter never took the ball grades to nothing and leaves every rate below.

Cohort	n	GOOD+	BLOWUP	ERA
Q1 — Do our own calls work? · Verdict ladder + MIZ bands · live board rows only, nothing backfilled
Verdict · AUTO START	21	71%	10%	3.06
Verdict · START	39	59%	8%	3.44
Verdict · DART	87	49%	15%	4.42
Verdict · SIT	163	48%	21%	4.40
MIZ ≥ 5.0	110	59%	13%	3.60
MIZ 3.5–4.9	106	53%	16%	4.43
MIZ < 3.5	79	41%	23%	4.87
All live board picks	310	51%	17%	4.18
Q1 read — GOOD+ falls 71% · 59% · 49% · 48% down the rungs, but BLOWUP does not rise with it, and MIZ sorts: GOOD+ falls 59% · 53% · 41% from the top band down.
Q2 — Which outside list earns the weight? · BP and PL graded on their own published lists · mostly rebuilt from git
PL · Auto Start	37	70%	14%	3.50
PL · Probably Start	40	62%	18%	3.71
PL · Questionable Start	98	51%	15%	4.43
PL · Do Not Start	191	50%	18%	4.11
BP · Auto	16	38%	6%	4.15
BP · Likely	63	48%	16%	4.14
All graded picks	392	52%	16%	4.11
Q2 read — against the 52% all-picks baseline, PL's top tiers clear it (70% · 62%) and BP's top tiers are too thin to call (38% · 48% on n=16 · n=63).

Rows are overlapping lenses on the same picks, not a partition — one start can be a PL Auto Start and a Verdict SIT at once, so they never sum to the headline; each group is read against its own baseline row.

⚠ Dissent check — the override is ahead so far — 67% GOOD+ on n=9. Splits are picks the board started over our MIZ sit-call (vs 51% for all live picks).

Calibration — do our numbers mean anything? · full season, 2026-06-29→2026-08-25 · 829 graded picks · MIZ on 295, BP on 230, Verdict on 310

The ladder above asks whether the tiers sort. This asks the harder question: is the number a probability — when the board says 7, do 70% of those starts come back GOOD+? Bins are equal-count and merge until every one clears n=15; the walk-forward rows are scored against a model that only ever saw earlier days.

Score bin	n	mean	GOOD+	95% CI
MIZ score → P(GOOD+) · our matchup score, 0–10 · live rows only · n=295
MIZ 0.5–3.2	61	2.4	41%	30%–54%
MIZ 3.3–3.9	63	3.6	48%	36%–60%
MIZ 4.0–4.8	54	4.4	56%	42%–68%
MIZ 4.9–5.6	59	5.2	49%	37%–62%
MIZ 5.7–8.9	58	6.4	67%	54%–78%
All MIZ-scored picks	295	—	52%	—
BP score → P(GOOD+) · RelieverRecon's published rating · includes git-backfilled rows · n=230
BP 4.6–6.6	48	6.1	35%	23%–50%
BP 6.7–7.3	44	7.0	52%	38%–66%
BP 7.4–7.7	47	7.5	45%	31%–59%
BP 7.8–8.4	47	8.1	47%	33%–61%
BP 8.5–10.0	44	9.1	43%	30%–58%
All BP-scored picks	230	—	44%	—
Verdict tier → P(GOOD+) · the consensus call itself · live rows only
AUTO START	21	—	71%	50%–86%
START	39	—	59%	43%–73%
DART	87	—	49%	39%–60%
SIT	163	—	48%	40%–55%

Out-of-sample	n	value	vs
Walk-forward probability · logistic on MIZ, refit daily on earlier days only · from 2026-08-05 · 20 days
Brier — our probability	231	0.249	lower is better
Brier — flat base rate to date	231	0.256	we win by 0.007
Brier — verdict-tier history	231	0.256	we win by 0.007
Log loss — our probability	231	0.691	lower is better
ECE — our probability	231	0.059	5 equal-count bins
ECE bins · predicted p vs what actually happened
said 32%–48%	46	41%	off by 3%
said 48%–52%	46	43%	off by 7%
said 53%–57%	47	45%	off by 11%
said 57%–61%	46	52%	off by 7%
said 61%–74%	46	63%	off by 2%
Verdict — usable with caveats: ECE 0.059 over n=231 out-of-sample picks (≤0.03 well calibrated · ≤0.07 usable with caveats); edges the flat base rate on Brier (0.249 vs 0.256, a thin margin; log-loss ~coin-flip).

🔥 Today's Hitter Streamers

Top 10 FA bats for today's slate · score = split vs SP hand (35%) + SP softness (35%) + bat quality (15%) + trailing 15 days (10%) + park (5%) · facing an elite arm fades the score hard (feast on weak pitchers).

#	Hitter	Matchup	Why	Legs	Score
1	AUTO STARTRafael Flores Jr.1B · 5% own	@ SD · Vásquez RHP	szn .353 xwOBAL15: 1.074 OPS (43 PA)L14 contact +6.0 (.509 xwOBAcon, 25 BBE)usually bats 5thbeats 3 of 3 eligible startersshort side vs RHP — 43% of ABVásquez .362 allowed · soft SP	L15 bat SP L/R park	80
2	AUTO STARTEsmerlyn ValdezRF · 18% own	@ SD · Vásquez RHP	szn .341 xwOBAL15: 0.772 OPS (50 PA)L14 contact +5.4 (.490 xwOBAcon, 22 BBE)usually bats 2nd (×1.10)fills OF needbeats 6 of 6 eligible startersVásquez .362 allowed · soft SP0.786 OPS vs RHP (129 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	80
3	AUTO STARTMickey GasperC · 6% own	@ MIA · Gusto RHP	szn .353 xwOBAL15: 1.954 OPS (29 PA)L14 contact +6.0 (.664 xwOBAcon, 20 BBE)usually bats 9th (×0.90)beats 2 of 2 eligible startersGusto .319 allowed · avg SP0.947 OPS vs RHP (109 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	73
4	AUTO STARTRyan WardLF · 0% own	@ ATL · Smith-Shawver RHP	szn .316 xwOBAfills OF needbeats 9 of 9 eligible startersSmith-Shawver .363 allowed · soft SP0.779 OPS vs RHP (52 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	66
5	AUTO STARTDylan BeaversLF · 1% own	@ STL · McGreevy RHP	szn .306 xwOBAL15: 1.111 OPS (32 PA)L14 contact +4.2 (.464 xwOBAcon, 18 BBE)usually bats 6th (×0.98)fills OF needbeats 6 of 6 eligible startersMcGreevy .351 allowed · soft SP0.746 OPS vs RHP (189 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	65
6	AUTO STARTSpencer Horwitz1B · 4% own	@ SD · Vásquez RHP	szn .318 xwOBAL15: 0.343 OPS (45 PA)L14 contact -5.0 (.253 xwOBAcon, 29 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)beats 2 of 2 eligible startersVásquez .362 allowed · soft SP0.785 OPS vs RHP (253 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	63
7	AUTO STARTAbimelec Ortiz1B · 5% own	vs COL · Gordon RHP	szn .339 xwOBAL15: 0.658 OPS (49 PA)L14 contact +0.9 (.391 xwOBAcon, 32 BBE)usually bats 2nd (×1.10)fills OF needbeats 7 of 7 eligible startersGordon .333 allowed · soft SP0.792 OPS vs RHP (63 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	62
8	AUTO STARTHunter FeducciaC · 0% own	@ ATL · Smith-Shawver RHP	szn .321 xwOBAL15: 0.768 OPS (29 PA)L14 contact +5.1 (.483 xwOBAcon, 18 BBE)usually bats 9th (×0.90)beats 2 of 2 eligible startersSmith-Shawver .363 allowed · soft SP0.723 OPS vs RHP (146 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	59
9	AUTO STARTJesus SanchezRF · 2% own	vs KC · Dobnak RHP	szn .330 xwOBAusually bats 5thfills OF needbeats 5 of 6 eligible startersDobnak .334 allowed · soft SP0.796 OPS vs RHP (222 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	59
10	AUTO STARTColt Keith1B · 5% own	vs TB · Peralta RHP	szn .339 xwOBAL15: 0.761 OPS (36 PA)L14 contact +5.8 (.498 xwOBAcon, 20 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)beats 4 of 5 eligible startersPeralta .313 allowed · avg SP0.774 OPS vs RHP (318 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	59

Tiers vs YOUR lineup tonight — median starter 52, worst Randy Arozarena (19). AUTO START = beats the median eligible starter.

TBD starter = neutral SP + split legs until the probable posts (refresh upgrades it). Splits need 30+ AB vs that hand. IL bats are excluded; bats who rarely start against tonight's hand are dropped. Doubleheaders: legs average the ends he plays, and everyday bats get up to a ×1.50 volume boost. Lineup slot scales the score by expected PAs from the bat's usual spot (leadoff ×1.12 … 9-hole ×0.90, modal over the last ~10 played days) — his typical order, not today's card, since that posts after waivers run.

🎯 FA Hitters — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Miguel Vargas

1Mickey GasperC · Bos · 5.8%HEATER

93/99 heat on 20 BBE with 0.664 xwOBAcon; L14 production (5 HR, 12 RBI) is elite regardless of tiny ATC PA projection

Heat 93 · 20 BBE · ATC 11 PA · 0 HR · 0 SB · 0.225 · L7 0.5 · 3 HR · sim +0.0 pts

2Dylan Beavers

LF · Bal · 1.1% · UPSIDE

81/99 heat on 18 BBE, L7 explosion (3 HR, 6 RBI), wRC+ 103 ATC projection supports legitimacy over replacement level

Heat 81 · 18 BBE · ATC 95 PA · 3 HR · 2 SB · 0.237 · L7 0.353 · 3 HR · sim -0.1 pts

3Colt Keith

1B · Det · 5.3% · HEATER

96.2 EV on 20 BBE is the loudest exit-velo signal in the pool; 0.498 xwOBAcon projects breakout despite cold L7 BA

Heat 87 · 20 BBE · ATC 113 PA · 3 HR · 1 SB · 0.259 · L7 0.167 · 0 HR · sim +0.0 pts

4Xander Bogaerts

SS · SD · 18.7% · FLOOR

Roto sim +0.2, SB-eligible SS with 119 PA, wRC+ 103 ATC; most reliable counting-stat floor in this pool

ATC 119 PA · 3 HR · 4 SB · 0.259 · L7 0.211 · 0 HR · sim +0.2 pts

5Justin Crawford

CF · Phi · 3.7% · CATEGORY FIT

SB-targeted add; MIZ is 7 steals from rank-5, Crawford's 5 SB ATC + 0.268 AVG protects both live categories

ATC 99 PA · 1 HR · 5 SB · 0.268 · L7 0.2 · 0 HR · sim +0.2 pts

Passed on: Tristan Peters has eye-catching L7 numbers (4 HR, 7 RBI) but his flare is only 17 BBE on a HM-rail signal and the ATC projects just 1 HR rest-of-season on a ChW roster — production looks unsustainable against a weak schedule artifact.

💪 Hitter List Rankings

PL Top 150 hitters · your bats + top FAs.

On Hitter List · 18 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Hitter	MLB	Pos	Chg	AVG	xwOBA	HR	SB	RoS	Chu’s Take
18	Randy Arozarena	SEA	OF	-	.272	.348	20	20	123	Randy Arozarena is only hitting .238 in August, but his expected stats for this month suggest it should be closer to .280. I’m a little d…
19	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	DH	+2	.241	.366	39	3	127	When Kyle Schwarber is hot, he’s HOT. The Field of Dreams game was his second two-homer outing in his last five starts and facing the Twi…
39	Yandy Díaz	TB	1B	+10	.303	.356	19	3	123
40	Miguel Vargas	CHW	1B/3B	-10	.248	.390	29	12	114	Miguel Vargas continues to slump, and while there isn’t anything you should do about it from an add/drop perspective, it’s certainly frus…
57	Zach Neto	LAA	SS	+4	.236	.303	22	18	109
62	Royce Lewis	MIN	1B/2B/3B	+8	.236	.317	13	13	104
63	Cole Carrigg	COL	OF	+2	.268	.318	5	7	68
72	Jac Caglianone	KC	1B/OF	+23	.276	.361	22	6	107	Jac Caglianone has improved the strikeout rate in a huge way, and the ground ball rate is below 50%. All systems are GO.
77	Dansby Swanson	CHC	SS	+2	.216	.307	18	17	101
84	Ty France	SD	1B	+1	.287	.332	18	1	106
101	Tyler Soderstrom	ATH	1B/OF	+5	.245	.328	19	2	—
102	Jacob Wilson	ATH	SS	+8	.266	.282	7	4	—
112	Tyler Stephenson	CIN	C	+UR	.243	.335	12	0	97
114	Dylan Crews	WSH	OF	+15	.213	.320	10	8	87
117	Ryan Jeffers	MIN	C	+15	.277	.355	10	1	118
122	Andruw Monasterio	BOS	2B/SS	+15	.253	.298	6	4	92
126	Luis Rengifo	SD	2B/3B/OF	+17	.244	.304	4	6	87
133	Cam Smith	HOU	OF	+UR	.217	.324	17	10	100	OK, Cam Smith , go ahead, tease me one more time.
137	Abimelec Ortiz	WSH	1B/OF	+UR	.221	.339	5	0	87
139	Bryce Eldridge	SF	1B	-26	.252	.352	14	1	99	Bryce Eldridge is getting the ball in the air, but he’s not pulling it much and strikeouts have been an issue. He’s a solid hold in Dynas…
TS	Angel Genao	Cle	SS	—	.290	.304	1	1	94	Angel Genao (3B, CLE) — Plenty of hard-hit balls in play, albeit mostly on the ground. Feels like a streamer for now with more upside in …
TS	Henry Bolte	Oak	OF	—	.276	.307	6	14	91	Henry Bolte (OF, ATH) — Playing every day but the results aren’t overly exciting (though playing a ton of lefties lately has helped).
TS	Jordan Lawlar	Ari	3B/OF	—	.271	.331	2	4	89	Jordan Lawlar (3B/OF, ARI) — Has a home run in back-to-back games on his rehab, but striking out a TON. Sounds like he’ll be back this we…
TS	Kaelen Culpepper	Min	SS	—	.333	.314	2	0	91	Kaelen Culpepper (SS, MIN) — Culpepper is off to a slow start and is sitting every third day or so, but can remain an upside stash if you…
TS	Walker Jenkins	Min	OF	—	—	—	—	—	92	Walker Jenkins (OF, MIN) — Hitting extremely well in August (1.063 OPS), and the collapse of Larnach may give him a chance to break throu…
UR	Franklin Arias	Bos	SS	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	James Wood	Wsh	OF	—	.265	.419	30	17	129	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Ralphy Velazquez	Cle	1B	—	—	—	—	—	83	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.

🔥 Heat Board

Hottest ACTIVE free-agent bats by contact quality, 8/12–8/25 · Heat = percentile vs all MLB bats over the same window (xwOBAcon 30 · EV 20 · Brl 20 · HH 15 · K 10 · BB 5) · min 15 BBE to qualify (smaller samples live in the HM rail) · IL excluded.

Mickey Gasper

C · Bos · 5.8% own · xwOBAcon .664 · EV 92.9 · Brl 30.0% · 20 BBE

▲ .195 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.281	5	19	17	0
L14	.476	5	12	6	0

Ryan Vilade

RF · TB · 0.3% own · xwOBAcon .651 · EV 97.5 · Brl 18.8% · 16 BBE

▲ .145 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.264	11	37	25	3
L14	.409	2	2	5	0

Colt Keith

1B · Det · 5.3% own · xwOBAcon .498 · EV 96.2 · Brl 10.0% · 20 BBE

▲ .003 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.266	9	32	46	5
L14	.269	1	1	4	0

Dylan Beavers

LF · Bal · 1.1% own · xwOBAcon .464 · EV 94.0 · Brl 22.2% · 18 BBE

▲ .054 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.246	6	30	28	5
L14	.300	4	11	5	0

Coby Mayo

1B · Bal · 1.7% own · xwOBAcon .592 · EV 90.1 · Brl 21.7% · 23 BBE

▼ .018 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.212	17	48	47	2
L14	.194	2	3	7	0

Randal Grichuk

RF · ChW · 0.4% own · xwOBAcon .433 · EV 91.5 · Brl 29.4% · 17 BBE

▲ .169 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.281	11	32	32	0
L14	.450	2	7	5	0

Esmerlyn Valdez

RF · Pit · 18.3% own · xwOBAcon .490 · EV 93.5 · Brl 13.6% · 22 BBE

▲ .019 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.249	15	42	36	0
L14	.268	1	4	8	0

Ben Malgeri

CF · Det · 0.1% own · xwOBAcon .457 · EV 93.1 · Brl 13.3% · 15 BBE

▼ .051 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.242	3	11	9	1
L14	.191	2	4	2	1

Elias Diaz

C · Tex · 0.1% own · xwOBAcon .415 · EV 91.7 · Brl 19.0% · 21 BBE

▼ .068 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.228	6	22	16	0
L14	.160	1	2	2	0

Rafael Flores Jr.

1B · Pit · 5.2% own · xwOBAcon .509 · EV 90.5 · Brl 24.0% · 25 BBE

▲ .038 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.262	6	14	10	0
L14	.300	5	12	8	0

Honorable mention · hottest L7 (8/19–8/25), not yet on the board · tiny samples — peek, don't trust

Brett Baty

3B · NYM

.580 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .444 L7

Patrick Bailey

C · Cle

.593 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .385 L7

Hao-Yu Lee

3B · Det

.483 xwOBAcon

17 BBE · .286 L7

Justin Foscue

2B · Tex

.476 xwOBAcon

15 BBE · .278 L7

Drew Gilbert

RF · SF

.513 xwOBAcon

12 BBE · .238 L7

Tristan Peters

CF · ChW

.514 xwOBAcon

17 BBE · .318 L7

🎯 FA Pitchers — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Sandy Alcantara

1Dylan SmithRP · SF · 0.6%BEST VALUE

Highest roto sim delta (+1.5), closer role confirmed, SV gap to rank 2 is live.

Supp 50 · 9 BBE · ATC 12.0 IP · 1 W · 11 K · 3.97 · 1.33 · 4 SV · Closer · sim +1.5 pts

2Andrew Kittredge

RP · Bal · 1.6% · CATEGORY FIT

Confirmed closer, +1.1 sim, 82nd-percentile suppression on trusted 15-BBE sample.

Supp 82 · 15 BBE · ATC 12.0 IP · 1 W · 11 K · 3.87 · 1.21 · 2 SV · Closer · sim +1.1 pts

3Calvin Faucher

RP · Mia · 0.7% · CATEGORY FIT

+1.0 sim, confirmed closer, elite xwOBAcon-allowed (0.173) anchors ratio safety.

Supp 81 · 15 BBE · ATC 12.0 IP · 1 W · 12 K · 3.96 · 1.39 · 1 SV · Closer · sim +1.0 pts

4Max Scherzer

SP · Tor · 2.7% · HEATER

92nd-percentile suppression, 45 BBE trusted sample; ATC ERA/WHIP manageable at GS pace.

Supp 92 · 45 BBE · ATC 24.0 IP · 1 W · 23 K · 4.77 · 1.27 · sim +0.0 pts

5Clay Holmes

SP · ChC · 29.5% · HEATER

79th-percentile suppression on 56 BBE, best contact-quality signal of SP field; ratio-safe.

Supp 79 · 56 BBE · ATC 30.0 IP · 2 W · 25 K · 3.78 · 1.33 · sim +0.0 pts

Passed on: Michael McGreevy has elite 90th-percentile suppression and a streamer rank of #20, but his ATC WHIP (1.29) and K rate are thin, making him a ratio risk for a team protecting a 1.109 WHIP lead.

⚾ Pitcher List Rankings

PL Top 100 SP · your arms + top FAs.

On Pitcher List · 6 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Pitcher	MLB	Chg	ERA	xERA	K/9	RoS	Pollack’s Take
1	Jacob Misiorowski	MIL	-	1.68	1.98	13.4	3.32	Like a base set Charizard, Misiorowski’s not gonna stop being dope.
9	Blake Snell	LAD	+7	2.57	2.29	11.1	3.42	#HotSnellSummer is in full swing.
10	Dylan Cease	TOR	-1	2.37	2.68	13.0	3.45	Like a perfect burger without the condiments to hit all your macros, Cease gives you everything except for a stable WHIP due to his infla…
20	Kyle Harrison	MIL	+8	2.79	3.24	11.1	4.12	With a dominant outing, he muted our concerns, but Harrison’s still displaying decreased velocity and not commanding as well as he did in…
22	Eury Pérez	MIA	-4	3.17	3.67	9.7	3.87	Pérez has the stuff to be an ace, but there’s polishing to do in the command and game plan departments to unlock his full potential.
30	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	-4	3.38	3.64	6.7	4.19	Baseball’s premier innings eater hasn’t ruined his appetite.
38	Jacob Lopez	ATH	+6	4.98	3.36	8.6	4.63	It’s the 2025 hot streak all over again. Enjoy the ride, ya’ll!
40	Walbert Ureña	LAA	-	2.94	3.44	8.7	4.54	Armed with upper-90s heaters and one of the best changeups in baseball, Ureña has hit few speed bumps. If that developing sweeper becomes…
43	Andrew Painter	PHI	+UR	6.04	4.81	7.7	4.78	From off The List to inside the Top 50, Painter has stolen our hearts with an improved heater (97+ mph with 17-18″ iVB) and emphasis on r…
45	Peter Lambert	HOU	-4	3.68	3.44	8.8	4.58	Lambert’s stumble last time was a product of being Singled Out . He’s been reliable all year, but we should be recognizing that Holly is …
46	Jared Jones	PIT	-8	4.76	3.67	10.2	3.99	The stuff is top-tier, but he’s still shaking off the Tommy John surgery rust with his command and the tight leash the Pirates have on hi…
56	Shane Bieber	TOR	+14	4.37	5.94	7.1	4.19	Bieber is back in business. His heater looked awesome in The Trop, and his offspeed pitches are being the CSW monsters they need to be to…
57	Tyler Mahle	ATL	-	4.41	4.28	8.5	4.10	Mahle’s command and velocity have been stellar since returning from the IL in late June. He’s got an even better situation pitching in At…
58	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	-	3.51	3.75	6.2	4.60	Despite what the line suggests, Pfaadt’s last start wasn’t an end to his Vargas Rule . It was a textbook Careful, Icarus with a three-run…
59	Christian Scott	NYM	+1	3.73	3.97	11.2	3.94	Scott has been happy to show us his floor, but the stuff is still there to propel him up The List at a moment’s notice. It’s felt a littl…
60	Sean Manaea	NYM	-4	4.31	4.81	9.0	4.26	The velo was 93+ last time, and he’s still supporting it with an elite sweeper. Manaea’s command has prevented him from excelling across …

🔒 Closer Chart

Save targets · roles + regression flags.

BLUEEntrenched closer (highest leverage)GREENNext man up / committee pieceYELLOWSetup, 8th-inning leverageORANGESpeculative / lower priorityMAGENTAHigh-upside future / multi-inning

	Pitcher	Tm	Role	SV	SVHD	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K/9	Rtg / Own
Yours on the chart
—	Andrés Muñoz	Seattle Mariners	CL	24	24	48.3	4.28	1.22	3.31	14.3	5.0 · —
—	Louis Varland	Toronto Blue Jays	CL	29	34	66.3	1.22	0.98	2.24 ↑	11.1	5.0 · —
—	Justin Martinez	Arizona Diamondbacks	FU	0	0	3.0	0.00	1.00	3.54 ↑	6.0	1.0 · —
Top 5 FA closers (by team rating)
	Calvin Faucher 4-of-5	Miami Marlins	CL	2	16	56.3	3.99	1.37	3.72	10.1	3.5 · 1%
	Andrew Kittredge	Baltimore Orioles	CL	6	15	39.3	3.43	1.35	3.86	7.6	3.0 · 2%
	Dylan Smith	San Francisco Giants	CL	3	10	28.3	2.86	1.24	3.59	11.4	3.0 · 1%
	Kevin Ginkel	Arizona Diamondbacks	CL	2	13	55.0	3.76	1.11	3.72	8.7	1.0 · 1%

ERA cell: green <3.00 · red >4.50. xERA arrow: ↓ ERA likely to fall (buy) · ↑ ERA likely to rise (sell). Triggers when |xERA−ERA| ≥ 1.00.

✂️ Cut List

Drop priority · value, form, pedigree, role.

47	Royce Lewis 3B · Min low TV (18) sim cost ~0	TV 18 Rd 13
31	Justin Martinez RP · Ari low TV (16); BUT fresh-callup upside; BUT strong RoS (3.46 ERA) sim −0.56% win if cut	TV 16 UFDA
11	Ryan Jeffers C · Min UFDA — easy to drop sim cost ~0	TV 100 UFDA
11	Sandy Alcantara SP · Mia BUT solid keeper sim cost ~0	TV 72 Rd 14
9	Kyle Harrison SP · Mil mid TV (60); UFDA — easy to drop; BUT top-tier keeper sim −0.18% win if cut	TV 60 UFDA

Higher score = drop sooner — top 5 by score, and only 8+ reaches the board, so the number has no ceiling and is only comparable within this list. The sim line is a roto-sim marginal (cut vs. keep on one shared set of draws), not a measured cost. Pedigree + named closers shielded.

🌱 Stash List

PL's top prospects · grab them cheap.

Hitters

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 22: Top 10 Hitting Prospects to Stash

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + PSS + PFV + age + 40-man + path.

24 available — 3 yours

W. Jenkins YOURS

OF · MIN · AAA · 21 · knocking on the door

100

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

13·16·.320

F. Arias YOURS

SS · BOS · AAA · 20 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

23·6·.314

R. Velazquez YOURS

1B/C · CLE · AA · 20 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

27·2·.293

J. Tibbs III

OF · LAD · AAA · 23 · knocking on the door

100

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

27·7·.300

S. Thompson

OF · COL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

12·15·.303

B. Davidson

OF · SFG · AAA · 24 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

September

Szn

25·19·.283

L. Montes

OF · SEA · AAA · 21 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

37·6·.250

M. Anderson

2B · DET · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

15·5·.307

Y. Morales

3B · WSN · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

24·5·.289

S. King

SS/2B/3B · WSN · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

18·14·.327

J. Melton

OF · TB · AAA · 25 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

7·26·.307

E. Salas

C · SDP · AAA · 20 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

September

Szn

10·15·.290

R. Ward

LF · LAD · AAA · 28 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

20·7·.256

C. Ingle

C · CLE · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

18·2·.289

C. Cannarella

OF · MIA · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

13·19·.332

P. Harber

3B · SFG · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

'27

Szn

17·4·.294

H. Mendez

OF · MIN · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

12·4·.279

J. Long

1B · CHC · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

13·3·.280

K. Alderman

OF · MIA · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

18·10·.262

E. Arroyo

SS · CIN · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

15·14·.290

J. Made

SS · MIL · AA · 19 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

13·33·.273

Z. Hope

OF · DET · AA · 21 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

blocked

Szn

26·22·.275

M. Arroyo

SS · SEA · AAA · 21 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

17·16·.281

D. Crisantes

2B/3B · ARI · AAA · 21 · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

8·0·.289

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

Pitchers

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 22: Top 10 Pitching Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + L3 quality + FV + age + 40-man + path.

27 available

H. Smith

SP · CHW · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

August 1st

Szn

101K·3.84

C. Seymour

SP · SFG · AAA · 27 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

84K·4.05

R. Snelling

SP · MIA · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

46K·2.38

J. Tong

SP · NYM · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

125K·4.75

A. Kelly

SP · PIT · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

70K·4.21

E. Rodriguez

SP · NYY · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

109K·2.91

T. Johnson

SP · TBR · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

80K·2.90

C. Crow

SP · MIL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

89K·3.55

T. McDougal

SP · CHW · AAA · 23 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

47K·4.43

T. Bremner

SP · LAA · AA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

'26

Szn

84K·4.26

M. Bratt

SP · ARI · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

79K·3.33

D. Davalillo

SP · TEX · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

90K·4.61

R. Sloan

SP · SEA · AA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

100

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

111K·3.63

J. Ritchie

SP · ATL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

114K·3.83

G. Wood

P · PHI · AA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

'26

Szn

117K·4.11

M. Forret

SP · BAL · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

115K·3.85

L. Perales

SP · WSN · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

97K·3.64

B. Garrett

SP · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

June 1st

Szn

101K·3.68

M. Wilkinson

SP · SFG · AAA · 23 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

98K·3.57

B. Mautz

SP · STL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

91K·3.86

M. Ullola

SP · HOU · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

94K·4.41

O. Murphy

SP · ATL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

119K·3.95

J. Wenninger

SP · NYM · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

104K·4.17

B. Hopkins

SP · TBR · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

111K·5.52

T. Gibson

SP · BAL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

94K·5.15

K. Curtis

SP · PIT · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

109K·4.65

L. Braun

SP · ATL · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

101K·3.72

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

🔭 11 not a 2026 factor — Joseph Dzierwa · Liam Doyle · Anthony Eyanson · Christian Zazueta · Jamie Arnold · Jaxon Wiggins · Nestor German · Tyson Hardin · Jurrangelo Cijntje · Jonathan Santucci · Karson Milbrandt

💼 Trades

Buy-low targets · league trade history.

Top Buy-Lows

Rebound candidates · suggested offers.

Hitters

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Trent Grisham CF · NYY · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.2σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.220 / xBA 0.249 · xwOBA 0.344	32%	114 wRC+	≈ 0.1%	Franklin Arias SS + Royce Lewis 3B + +$5 FAAB · two-piece package (TV 27 vs target 38)
📈 BUY-LOW	JJ Bleday CF · Cin · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.2σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.220 / xBA 0.244 · xwOBA 0.349	25%	104 wRC+	≈ 0.1%	Franklin Arias SS + Royce Lewis 3B · two-piece package (TV 27 vs target 27)
📈 BUY-LOW	Ronald Acuna Jr. RF · Atl · GoOs · My Best Guys +1.2σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.232 / xBA 0.252 · xwOBA 0.359	98%	136 wRC+	≈ 0.1%	Blake Snell SP + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 79 vs target 86)
📈 BUY-LOW	Heriberto Hernandez LF · Mia · FRAN · francisw789 +1.2σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.231 / xBA 0.248 · xwOBA 0.349	3%	98 wRC+	≈ 0.1%	Royce Lewis 3B · comparable value (TV 18 vs target 23)
↑ mild buy	Taylor Ward LF · Sea · GoOs · My Best Guys +0.6σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.233 / xBA 0.244 · xwOBA 0.339	62%	118 wRC+	↓ 0.5%	Kyle Harrison SP · comparable value (TV 60 vs target 60)
↑ mild buy	Brandon Nimmo LF · Tex · DORN · Lambertmt48 +0.6σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.259 / xBA 0.280 · xwOBA 0.355	68%	119 wRC+	↓ 0.3%	Walker Jenkins CF + Kyle Harrison SP · two-piece package (TV 61 vs target 45)
↑ mild buy	Dominic Canzone RF · Sea · GARR · jregarris +0.6σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.256 / xBA 0.269 · xwOBA 0.355	12%	113 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Franklin Arias SS + Royce Lewis 3B + +$3 FAAB · two-piece package (TV 27 vs target 34)
↑ mild buy	Kyle Stowers LF · Mia · KNIG · TKHOO +0.6σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.241 / xBA 0.233 · xwOBA 0.329	28%	111 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Franklin Arias SS + Royce Lewis 3B · two-piece package (TV 27 vs target 27)
📈 BUY-LOW	Mike Trout OF · LAA · KNIG · TKHOO +1.4σ buy-low · OF — fits a need · BA 0.242 / xBA 0.255 · xwOBA 0.383	95%	127 wRC+	≈ 0.2%	Sandy Alcantara SP · comparable value (TV 72 vs target 77)
↑ mild buy	Ian Happ LF · ChC · FRAN · francisw789 +0.7σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.220 / xBA 0.205 · xwOBA 0.315	74%	108 wRC+	↓ 0.5%	Walker Jenkins CF + Kyle Harrison SP · two-piece package (TV 61 vs target 56)

Pitchers

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Kodai Senga SP · NYM · KRTZ · FratSkins +1.6σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 7.79 vs xERA 4.97	10%	3.96 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Franklin Arias SS · comparable value (TV 9 vs target 14)
↑ mild buy	Freddy Peralta SP · TB · KNIG · TKHOO +0.8σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 5.33 vs xERA 4.11	69%	4.01 ERA	≈ 0.1%	Franklin Arias SS + Royce Lewis 3B + +$16 FAAB · two-piece package (TV 27 vs target 42)
↑ mild buy	Landen Roupp SP · SF · FRST · prestonc51684 +0.6σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.34 vs xERA 3.75	21%	3.98 ERA	≈ 0.1%	Royce Lewis 3B · comparable value (TV 18 vs target 19)
↑ mild buy	Bryce Miller SP · Sea · BLOB · crenshawh19 +0.6σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.12 vs xERA 3.17	37%	4.10 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Walker Jenkins CF + Kyle Harrison SP · two-piece package (TV 61 vs target 48)

League History

Completed trades · frozen grade at the deal + live grade now.

Side	Sent	At deal	Now	Trend
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Andy Pages	A- +7	A+ +44	▲ up
Camp MVP	Pete Crow-Armstrong	C -7	F -44	▼ down
Team Knighton ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Team Knighton	Matthew Boyd	F -22	F -22
Camp MVP	Kenley Jansen	A+ +22	A+ +22
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Worst2First 2026-08-10
Miz-waukee’s Best	Charlie Condon, Payton Tolle	A+ +50	A+ +35	▼ down
Worst2First	Dylan Cease	F -50	F -35	▲ up
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Dorn and Associates LLC 2026-08-05
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Travis Bazzana, George Lombard Jr., Nolan McLean	A+ +144	A+ +106	▼ down
Dorn and Associates LLC	Jackson Chourio, Jhoan Duran, Brice Turang, David Bednar	F -144	F -106	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-07-31
Miz-waukee’s Best	Samuel Basallo, Kade Anderson	A- +8	A +8
Ramirez Against the Machine	Blake Snell	C -8	D -8
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Team Knighton 2026-07-23
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Jo Adell, Jacob deGrom	F -49	F -63	▼ down
Team Knighton	Trea Turner	A+ +49	A+ +63	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine ⇄ Miz-waukee’s Best 2026-07-19
Ramirez Against the Machine	Sandy Alcantara	F -42	F -68	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best	Josh Jung	A+ +42	A+ +68	▲ up
I need Buck Showalter ⇄ Hit the Damn Ball You Bums 2026-06-19
I need Buck Showalter	Nasim Nunez	A+ +28	B +1	▼ down
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Justin Wrobleski	F -28	B -1	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ The Boys of Summer 2026-06-12
Miz-waukee’s Best	Chandler Simpson	A +10	A- +7	▼ down
The Boys of Summer	$30 FAAB	D -10	C -7	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-05-01
Miz-waukee’s Best	Kenley Jansen	—	A- +6
Camp MVP	$30 FAAB	A- +3	C -6	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-04-22
Miz-waukee’s Best	Nathan Eovaldi, $70 FAAB	—	F -40
Ramirez Against the Machine	Jac Caglianone	A+ +60	A+ +40	▼ down

🔻 Sell-High — My Roster

Surface line outrunning the underlying skill — trade-value peaks. σ = his surface-stat z-score minus his Statcast-skill z-score, both against the league reference for his side — bigger σ = further ahead of the skill. Pair with Buy-Low Targets.

Verdict	Player	Own	Surface vs expected	Contact	2027 keeper
↓ SHOP	Henry Bolte RF · Oak 0.73σ sell-high · RF · BA 0.276 / xBA 0.243 · xwOBA 0.307 — test the market, don't force it	5%	BA 0.276 / xBA 0.243 +.033 wOBA 0.328 / xwOBA 0.307 +.021	HH 47.8% · Brl/PA 4.4%	25th · +2 rds vs mkt
↓ SHOP	Yandy Diaz 1B · TB 0.64σ sell-high · 1B · BA 0.303 / xBA 0.288 · xwOBA 0.356 — test the market, don't force it	93%	BA 0.303 / xBA 0.288 +.015 wOBA 0.364 / xwOBA 0.356 +.008	HH 47.3% · Brl/PA 5.1%	7th · +1 rd vs mkt
HOLD — KEEPER PRICE	Louis Varland RP · Tor 0.45σ sell-high · RP · ERA 1.22 vs xERA 2.24 — only move for keeper-grade return	86%	ERA 1.22 / xERA 2.24 -1.02	Brl 4.4% allowed	22nd · +16 rds vs mkt

👥 Your Roster

Your roster · news + buy/sell signals.

News (last 24h)

Player news · last 24h.

Andres Munoz Collects 24th save Tuesday
Wed 08-26 12:00 AM
Muñoz walked two and struck out two over a scoreless ninth inning to earn the save in Tuesday's 4-1 win over Philadelphia.

Leverage Buys/Sells

Buy/sell windows · surface vs. underlying.

Hitters

Player	Pos	MLB	BA	xBA	wOBA	xwOBA	Brl%	Own%	Signal
James Wood IL10	LF	Wsh	0.265	0.275	0.395	0.419	100.0	99.1	📈 BUY-LOW
Miguel Vargas	3B	ChW	0.248	0.268	0.369	0.390	93.0	95.1	📈 BUY-LOW
Kyle Schwarber	DH	Phi	0.241	0.237	0.376	0.366	98.0	99.6	📈 BUY-LOW
Bryce Eldridge BRV	1B	SF	0.252	0.251	0.343	0.352	77.0	8.1	↑ mild buy
Jac Caglianone DTD	RF	KC	0.276	0.280	0.353	0.361	92.0	54.3	↑ mild buy
Zach Neto	SS	LAA	0.236	0.207	0.327	0.303	75.0	60.4	fair
Randy Arozarena	LF	Sea	0.272	0.261	0.365	0.348	52.0	93.8	fair
Yandy Diaz	1B	TB	0.303	0.288	0.364	0.356	41.0	92.7	↓ mild fade
Cole Carrigg	CF	Col	0.268	0.251	0.345	0.318	—	14.1	fair
Walker Jenkins	CF	Min	—	—	—	—	—	2.1	—
Ryan Jeffers	C	Min	0.277	0.254	0.374	0.355	—	42.1	fair
Henry Bolte	RF	Oak	0.276	0.243	0.328	0.307	44.0	4.5	↓ mild fade
Kaelen Culpepper	SS	Min	0.333	0.263	0.372	0.314	—	3.9	fair
Royce Lewis	3B	Min	0.236	0.243	0.311	0.317	75.0	18.1	↑ mild buy
Jordan Lawlar DTD	3B	Ari	0.271	0.272	0.338	0.331	—	3.1	fair
Franklin Arias	SS	Bos	—	—	—	—	—	1.4	—
Ralphy Velazquez	1B	Cle	—	—	—	—	—	0.7	—
Angel Genao	SS	Cle	0.290	0.258	0.331	0.304	—	3.3	fair

Pitchers

Pitcher	Pos	MLB	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K-BB%	xwOBA-a	Brl%-a	Own%	Signal
Blake Snell	SP	LAD	21.0	2.57	1.05	2.29	19.5	0.236	0.0	88.0	↑ mild buy
Andres Munoz	RP	Sea	48.3	4.28	1.22	3.31	27.9	0.283	9.4	80.1	↑ mild buy
Joe Ryan IL15	SP	Min	125.7	4.08	1.15	3.49	21.2	0.290	10.5	90.2	fair
Jacob Misiorowski	SP	Mil	145.0	1.68	0.76	1.98	33.3	0.219	3.8	99.6	fair
Dylan Cease	SP	Tor	144.3	2.37	1.06	2.68	25.0	0.255	4.6	99.3	fair
Sandy Alcantara	SP	Mia	183.7	3.38	1.18	3.64	11.6	0.296	5.3	91.2	fair
Kyle Harrison	SP	Mil	103.3	2.79	1.12	3.24	23.6	0.280	6.8	78.8	fair
Eury Perez	SP	Mia	127.7	3.17	1.11	3.67	16.5	0.297	9.1	82.2	fair
Louis Varland	RP	Tor	66.3	1.22	0.98	2.24	24.8	0.233	4.4	86.2	↓ mild fade
Justin Martinez	RP	Ari	3.0	0.00	1.00	3.54	0.0	0.292	0.0	1.7	—

📰 MLB News — Top Fantasy Stories

🔒 Keepers — 2027 Slate

Peter's model (additive): rounds-saved (cost arbitrage spine) + current skill + career-grade pedigree + sample stability + Statcast over/under-performance trend, with age-decline (33+), closer/RP, and top-30 talent adjustments. Heavy on bargain-hunting.
Claude's model (multiplicative dynasty index): EFV(2027) = (3 + skill + upside) × age_mult × pos_mult; score = EFV − cost_replacement − mookie-lock. Compounds age curve and position scarcity.
Sorted by consensus rank (average of both models). MLB-inactive players surfaced in 🚑 Return Watch below.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict	Notes
1.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	21st	#1 (+24.4)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51	UFDA-G FV 55
2.0	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	25th	#2 (+23.5)	#2 (+19.8)	S · $20	UFDA
4.0	Eury Perez	SP · 23yo	20th	#3 (+18.6)	#5 (+15.2)	A · $15	UFDA-G
4.0	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	22nd	#4 (+17.3)	#4 (+15.6)	A · $16
5.5	Kyle Harrison	SP · 24yo	25th	#5 (+17.1)	#6 (+14.4)	A · $14	UFDA
5.5	Zach Neto	SS · 25yo	10th	#8 (+13.4)	#3 (+16.1)	A · $16
6.5	Bryce Eldridge	1B · 20yo	25th	#6 (+16.0)	#7 (+13.7)	A · $14	UFDA FV 55
8.0	Jac Caglianone	RF · 22yo	21st	#7 (+13.5)	— (+10.5)	A · $10	UFDA-G FV 55
8.5	Dylan Cease	SP · 30yo	4th	— (+11.9)	#8 (+11.7)	A · $12

NEW UFDA cap: Peter 3/3 · Claude 3/3 · BOTH = top 8 in both models. Peter only = his model values cost surplus more; Claude only = mine values projection / position scarcity more.

🚑 Return watch — would be keeper-eligible if they get MLB action this year. Rank shown is hypothetical (where they'd slot if eligible).

Player	Pos · Age	Cost	Peter (if elig.)	Claude (if elig.)
Walker Jenkins	CF · 20yo	25th	#15 (-2.0)	#13 (+1.4)
Franklin Arias	SS · 19yo	25th	#15 (-2.0)	#12 (+3.0)
Ralphy Velazquez	1B · 19yo	25th	#15 (-2.0)	#13 (+1.4)

Updated Wed Aug 26 · 11:04 AM ET

🌍 League-Wide Top Keepers

Top 10 keepers · all 12 teams · both models. Yours in green.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	Team	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict
2.5	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	MIZ	21st	#4 (+24.4)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51
3.0	Jesus Luzardo	SP · 28yo	KNIG	21st	#1 (+27.7)	#5 (+33.4)	S · $33
3.0	Jordan Walker	RF · 24yo	GARR	25th	#2 (+27.5)	#4 (+38.7)	S · $39
3.0	Bryan Baker	RP · 31yo	DORN	25th	#3 (+25.2)	#3 (+38.7)	S · $39
6.5	Cam Schlittler	SP · 24yo	KRTZ	19th	— (+20.3)	#2 (+40.8)	S · $41
7.0	Foster Griffin	SP · 30yo	GoOs	25th	#8 (+21.8)	#6 (+29.9)	S · $30
7.5	Ben Rice	1B · 27yo	DORN	20th	#6 (+23.1)	#9 (+24.0)	S · $24
8.0	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	MIZ	25th	#5 (+23.5)	— (+19.8)	S · $20
9.0	Payton Tolle	SP · 22yo	FRST	25th	#7 (+23.0)	— (+19.8)	S · $20
9.0	Cristopher Sanchez	SP · 29yo	PEYT	9th	— (+18.2)	#7 (+26.9)	S · $27
9.5	Drew Rasmussen	SP · 30yo	THAR	8th	— (+13.6)	#8 (+26.0)	S · $26
10.0	Jose Soriano	SP · 27yo	BLOB	25th	#9 (+21.5)	— (+18.5)	S · $18
10.5	Carson Benge	CF · 22yo	KRTZ	25th	#10 (+20.6)	— (+18.5)	S · $18
10.5	Nolan McLean	SP · 23yo	DORN	20th	— (+20.4)	#10 (+24.0)	S · $24

Updated Wed Aug 26 · 11:04 AM ET

🏚️ Keeper Cupboards

Every team's six best keepers · shade = dual-model consensus value. Cupboard score weights the top four heavily (the slots that get kept), keepers 5–8 taper. 100 = league's best cupboard.

Team	K1	K2	K3	K4	K5	K6	Cupboard
1MIZ	MisiorowskiR21	VargasR25	PerezR20	VarlandR22	HarrisonR25	NetoR10	100
2DORN	BakerR25	RiceR20	McLeanR20	PerdomoR21	BazzanaR25	WarrenR25	94
3GARR	WalkerR25	MessickR18	DinglerR22	CanzoneR25	RocchioR25	GrayR7	88
4KRTZ	BengeR25	SchlittlerR19	BurkeR25	McGonigleR17	MayR25	StewartR10	83
5KNIG	LuzardoR21	AbreuR15	deGromR13	MartinezR25	RodriguezR25	DuranR25	79
6FRAN	McCarthyR25	CavalliR21	LatzR25	BurnsR5	BradishR21	AntonacciR25	77
7GoOs	GriffinR25	BradleyR25	BurlesonR9	BaldwinR14	BellR25	GomezR25	72
8THAR	RasmussenR8	BauersR25	GonzalesR25	O'BrienR17	WilliamsR11	KeaschallR21	68
9BLOB	SorianoR25	LopezR20	ScottR25	LileR15	ArandaR14	BurgerR19	62
10FRST	TolleR25	RouppR25	WheelerR8	SkubalR1	RumfieldR25	BuxtonR7	60
11RAGE ▼ thin	HerreraR20	EwingR25	CamineroR5	BohmR18	LeeR21	ImanagaR9	56
12PEYT ▼ thin	SanchezR9	HendersonR25	WooR8	ArenadoR25	WetherholtR13	CameronR18	56

The bottom two rows are your trade marks — thin cupboards pay up for keepable pieces.

data: snap 3h · BP 25h · PL 27h · HL 11d · PSS 7h · BR 0h · FG 2h · proj 7h · closer 0h · oyster 24h · AAA-sc 12h · cookie ok