Miz-waukee’s Best — The Brandon League

Last updated Sunday, August 30 · 01:07 PM ET

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Any player in the league universe · tap a result for the card.

☕ Morning Briefing

🏆 MIZ holds 1st place with 106.0 roto points, a commanding 22.5-point cushion over 2nd-place Hit the Damn Ball You Bums — but keep an eye on SB (DORN is only 4 behind) and the razor-thin AVG race (you trail GoOs by just .000 for a free +1 roto point).

⚾ Big day for your guys: Blake Snell was electric against the Tigers — 5 IP, 10 K, 1 ER — while Bryce Eldridge put up a monster doubleheader in a 4-for-7, 4 RBI, 2 BB effort against the D-backs, and Zach Neto added a HR in a 1-for-5 line vs. the Phillies; Louis Varland locked it down with a clean 1 IP, 1 K save against the Mariners.

🌱 Jonah Tong (RI 88, your stash board, FA) dealt 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K at AAA Lehigh Valley — a strong case to pull the trigger if the roster spot opens up. Meanwhile, Agustin Ramirez (+nanσ underlying skill) was just dropped by DORN and Associates and is now a free agent worth a look.

📋 On the closer front, Dylan Smith (SF, FA) is the sim leader at +1.2 roto pts in a confirmed closer role, and Andrew Kittredge (BAL, FA) projects +0.9 with 2 saves RoS — both matter given your SB/saves picture. Luis Gil (NYY, FA) and Wikelman González (MIA, FA) are the most notable pitching call-ups leaguewide. On the IL side, Byron Buxton (hip) is on the shelf through at least September for FRST, and JJ Wetherholt (wrist tendinitis) lands on the 10-day for PEYT.

📰 Pete Crow-Armstrong's 3-HR, 6-RBI performance yesterday — pushing him to 9.1 fWAR — is the biggest fantasy story in the NL right now and strengthens his MVP case over Ohtani. The Tigers' walk-off win over the Dodgers is worth noting mainly as context for Snell's line (the loss was not his). The Yankees-Red Sox rubber match goes today with the season-series tiebreaker on the line; Max Fried returned and threw 3⅔ innings in the nightcap for his FRST owner.

ELIGIBILITYK. Schwarber 1B 6/10P. Ramirez 1B 4/10

Your standing

1stof 12

106.0 roto pts +22.5 clear of 2nd

no change vs last update

Top Gaps

SB (7.0) W (8.0)

categories below mid-pack

🎯 Category Pressure

Category ranks vs. the league.

Rank →

Δ to #1

914

990

🥇

262

289

🥇

RBI

848

877

🥇

128

132

138

193

+61

AVG

.254

.256

.257

.258

+0.002

1143

1180

1288

+108

+10

+11

ERA

3.41

3.19

🥇

WHIP

1.17

1.11

🥇

📅 Yesterday's MIZ Box Scores (2026-08-29)

Loading box scores…

🏥 IL Rehab Tracker

IL players · rehab game logs.

On the IL, no rehab games yet: James Wood (IL10), Joe Ryan (IL15), Spencer Schwellenbach (IL60 · watch).

📊 League Activity (last 24h)

All adds, drops, and trades across the 12 teams.

Team	Move
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	+ Zebby Matthews \| − Cal Quantrill
Dorn and Associates LLC	+ Tristan Peters \| − Agustin Ramirez
Phil Swift's Flex Seal	+ Tyler Mahle \| − Andrew Alvarez

🏆 League Standings

Current roto points · 10,000-sim projected finish. FAAB = acquisition budget remaining.

100.0% to win the league · proj finish 1.0 · 102.4 roto pts

#	Team	Pts	FAAB	Win%	Proj Pts	Range	Proj Rk
1	MIZ Miz-waukee’s Best	106.0	$0	100.0%	102.4	98–106	1.0
2	FRAN Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	83.5	$74	0.0%	87.0	82–93	2.2
3	PEYT Phil Swift's Flex Seal	78.5	$31	0.0%	80.6	75–87	3.3
4	KRTZ Photogenic Nick Kurtz	77.5	$25	0.0%	80.2	74–87	3.4
5	GoOs I need Buck Showalter	73.0	$170	0.0%	71.4	66–77	5.1
6	BLOB Camp MVP	68.5	$168	0.0%	68.7	65–72	5.7
7	THAR Phil Mickeltits	62.5	$176	0.0%	59.7	54–65	7.2
8	KNIG Team Knighton	56.0	$137	0.0%	55.8	50–61	7.9
9	GARR The Boys of Summer	47.0	$155	0.0%	49.9	45–56	9.0
10	DORN Dorn and Associates LLC	44.5	$89	0.0%	44.7	40–50	10.1
11	RAGE Ramirez Against the Machine	44.0	$163	0.0%	37.0	34–41	11.9
12	FRST Worst2First	39.0	$154	0.0%	42.6	38–48	10.6

10,000 sims · fixed seed · noise CV talent 0.12 / idio 0.06 / team-cat 0.08 · assumes ATC rest-of-season rates

Your categories · projected roto points

R 12.0HR 12.0RBI 11.7SB 7.1AVG 9.3W 6.6SV 9.1K 10.8ERA 12.0WHIP 12.0

Winnable — push here: SB, AVG, W, SV.

🚨 Today's Streaming Board

152 of 200 GS · should be 170 · 18 behindBehind pace — stream aggressively

048 left · ~12.0/wk to cap · proj 179200

⏳ BP's post is late — Verdict pill is running on our score + Pitcher List for now (BP joins the top-2 once it posts).

Top FA streamers today

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Dustin May	vs TEX	STARTrust	—	4.1	#9	First-pitch comebacker exit; fresh if soreness resolved.
Zac Thornton	vs HOU	DART	—	4.6	#13	Elite cutter/fastball location to RHB; favorable lineup matchup.
Janson Junk	@ WSH	SIT	—	4.7	#18	Short hook, strikeouts absent; ceiling not worth risk.
Andrew Alvarez	vs MIA	SIT	—	4.9	#19	Inefficient, weak fastball, only curveball as offering.
Seth Lugo	@ CLE	SITleash	—	3.6	#16	Long leash but LHB matchup is a real concern.
Matthew Liberatore	vs PIT	SIT	—	4.2	#23	High-K upside buried by frequent blowup outings.
Yusei Kikuchi	vs PHI	SIT	—	3.5	#21	Volatile; one start from good outing, secondary mix uncertain.
Mason Adams	@ ATL	SIT	—	4.3	#28	Coors rookie, flat fastball will get punished.
Max Scherzer	vs SEA	SIT	—	3.3	#22	Dependent on pitch-count goodwill for meaningful production.
Kumar Rocker	@ MIL	SIT	—	2.4	#17	Can rack Ks but no consistent approach found yet.

Openers filtered: Jordan Hicks

Your staff: 3.19 ERA / 1.11 WHIP · GS 152/200 — Behind pace — stream aggressively. Verdict = the best 2 of BP · our score · Pitcher List, averaged (low outlier dropped); before BP posts it's our score + PL. ⚠ = our matchup score dissented — eyeball that one. Tap a MIZ score for the reasoning.

Tomorrow · 1 of yours + top 5 FA · Mon 8/31 · BP not out yet, so pill = our score + Pitcher List

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Kyle Harrison	@ CHC	START	—	4.9	#3	Velo drop and lost changeup noted; fastball command saves it.
Anthony Kay	@ HOU	SIT	—	3.7	#15	Mediocre floor, mediocre ceiling, nothing more.
Jackson Jobe	@ MIN	SIT	—	2.2	#12	Five-plus innings likely vs. weak Twins; weak contact, not Ks.
Tanner Gordon	vs BAL	SITwx⚠ opener	—	5.4	#24	Coors Field makes this a hard pass.
Elmer Rodríguez	@ LAA	SIT	—	3.8	#19	Velocity spike was adrenaline anomaly; regression expected.
Ryan Gusto	@ WSH	SITleash	—	3.9	#22	Short outings, insufficient production, uninteresting profile.

📼 Streamer Report Card

Does the Streaming Board actually work? Every pick it showed, frozen at pick time and graded off the real box score. Two scoreboards below: first our own calls — the Verdict ladder and MIZ (our matchup score, 0–10) — then the outside lists behind them, BP (RelieverRecon's daily BP Streamers post) and PL (Pitcher List's tier ranking). Grades are recomputed from raw lines on every build — the rubric can change, the history follows.

Last 30d · 349 starts graded over 29 days · GOOD+ 51% · BLOWUP 16% · agg ERA 4.23 · WHIP 1.32 · 4.4 K/start · 377 picks logged, 14 never started, 14 awaiting a box score — not graded

Grade mix · all 349 graded starts

GEM 68 GOOD 109 OK 115 BLOWUP 57

GEM6+ IP, ≤1 ER · or 6+ IP, 8+ K, ≤2 ERGOODquality start (6+ IP, ≤3 ER) · or 5+ IP, ≤2 EROKheld the line without earning GOODBLOWUP5+ ER · or under 4 IP with 4+ ERGOOD+ = GEM + GOOD. A pick whose starter never took the ball grades to nothing and leaves every rate below.

Cohort	n	GOOD+	BLOWUP	ERA
Q1 — Do our own calls work? · Verdict ladder + MIZ bands · live board rows only, nothing backfilled
Verdict · AUTO START	25	72%	12%	3.38
Verdict · START	43	63%	7%	3.41
Verdict · DART	97	45%	15%	4.63
Verdict · SIT	184	48%	20%	4.35
MIZ ≥ 5.0	123	61%	14%	3.67
MIZ 3.5–4.9	123	49%	15%	4.50
MIZ < 3.5	86	41%	21%	4.80
All live board picks	349	51%	16%	4.23
Q1 read — the ladder has not separated: GOOD+ runs 72% · 63% · 45% · 48% down the rungs, and MIZ sorts: GOOD+ falls 61% · 49% · 41% from the top band down.
Q2 — Which outside list earns the weight? · BP and PL graded on their own published lists · mostly rebuilt from git
PL · Auto Start	23	74%	9%	3.25
PL · Probably Start	38	58%	16%	4.14
PL · Questionable Start	93	52%	14%	4.22
PL · Do Not Start	171	49%	20%	4.35
BP · Auto	11	36%	9%	4.74
BP · Likely	43	47%	19%	4.43
All graded picks	349	51%	16%	4.23
Q2 read — against the 51% all-picks baseline, PL's top tiers clear it (74% · 58%) and BP's top tiers are too thin to call (36% · 47% on n=11 · n=43).

Rows are overlapping lenses on the same picks, not a partition — one start can be a PL Auto Start and a Verdict SIT at once, so they never sum to the headline; each group is read against its own baseline row.

⚠ Dissent check — the override is ahead so far — 62% GOOD+ on n=8. Splits are picks the board started over our MIZ sit-call (vs 51% for all live picks).

Calibration — do our numbers mean anything? · full season, 2026-06-29→2026-08-29 · 877 graded picks · MIZ on 340, BP on 230, Verdict on 358

The ladder above asks whether the tiers sort. This asks the harder question: is the number a probability — when the board says 7, do 70% of those starts come back GOOD+? Bins are equal-count and merge until every one clears n=15; the walk-forward rows are scored against a model that only ever saw earlier days.

Score bin	n	mean	GOOD+	95% CI
MIZ score → P(GOOD+) · our matchup score, 0–10 · live rows only · n=340
MIZ 0.5–3.3	78	2.6	42%	32%–53%
MIZ 3.4–3.9	58	3.7	47%	34%–59%
MIZ 4.0–4.8	69	4.4	51%	39%–62%
MIZ 4.9–5.6	70	5.2	53%	41%–64%
MIZ 5.7–8.9	65	6.5	66%	54%–76%
All MIZ-scored picks	340	—	51%	—
BP score → P(GOOD+) · RelieverRecon's published rating · includes git-backfilled rows · n=230
BP 4.6–6.6	48	6.1	35%	23%–50%
BP 6.7–7.3	44	7.0	52%	38%–66%
BP 7.4–7.7	47	7.5	45%	31%–59%
BP 7.8–8.4	47	8.1	47%	33%–61%
BP 8.5–10.0	44	9.1	43%	30%–58%
All BP-scored picks	230	—	44%	—
Verdict tier → P(GOOD+) · the consensus call itself · live rows only
AUTO START	27	—	70%	52%–84%
START	45	—	60%	45%–73%
DART	100	—	47%	38%–57%
SIT	186	—	48%	41%–55%

Out-of-sample	n	value	vs
Walk-forward probability · logistic on MIZ, refit daily on earlier days only · from 2026-08-05 · 24 days
Brier — our probability	276	0.247	lower is better
Brier — flat base rate to date	276	0.256	we win by 0.008
Brier — verdict-tier history	276	0.255	we win by 0.008
Log loss — our probability	276	0.687	lower is better
ECE — our probability	276	0.055	5 equal-count bins
ECE bins · predicted p vs what actually happened
said 32%–48%	55	42%	off by 2%
said 48%–52%	55	44%	off by 6%
said 52%–57%	56	45%	off by 10%
said 57%–60%	55	53%	off by 6%
said 61%–74%	55	62%	off by 3%
Verdict — usable with caveats: ECE 0.055 over n=276 out-of-sample picks (≤0.03 well calibrated · ≤0.07 usable with caveats); edges the flat base rate on Brier (0.247 vs 0.256, a thin margin; log-loss ~coin-flip).

🔥 Today's Hitter Streamers

Top 10 FA bats for today's slate · score = split vs SP hand (35%) + SP softness (35%) + bat quality (15%) + trailing 15 days (10%) + park (5%) · facing an elite arm fades the score hard (feast on weak pitchers).

#	Hitter	Matchup	Why	Legs	Score
1	AUTO STARTEsmerlyn ValdezRF · 16% own	@ STL · Liberatore LHP	szn .336 xwOBAL15: 0.688 OPS (42 PA)L14 contact +5.7 (.496 xwOBAcon, 15 BBE)usually bats 2nd (×1.10)fills OF needbeats 5 of 6 eligible startersLiberatore .340 allowed · soft SP1.057 OPS vs LHP (80 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	87
2	STARTMickey GasperC · 6% own	@ NYY · Warren RHP	szn .360 xwOBAL15: 1.710 OPS (37 PA)L14 contact +6.0 (.601 xwOBAcon, 25 BBE)usually bats 5thbeats 1 of 2 eligible startersWarren .330 allowed · soft SP0.946 OPS vs RHP (113 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	86
3	AUTO STARTBrendan Donovan2B · 34% own	@ TOR · Scherzer RHP	szn .314 xwOBAL15: 1.000 OPS (28 PA)L14 contact -0.9 (.350 xwOBAcon, 15 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)beats 4 of 5 eligible startersScherzer .336 allowed · soft SP0.936 OPS vs RHP (89 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	85
4	STARTRafael Flores Jr.1B · 4% own	@ STL · Liberatore LHP	szn .345 xwOBAL15: 0.681 OPS (46 PA)L14 contact +5.4 (.489 xwOBAcon, 23 BBE)usually bats 5thbeats 2 of 4 eligible startersLiberatore .340 allowed · soft SP0.891 OPS vs LHP (41 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	74
5	AUTO STARTDonovan Walton2B · 0% own	vs BAL · Bassitt RHP	szn .327 xwOBAL15: 0.914 OPS (38 PA)L14 contact -1.5 (.337 xwOBAcon, 26 BBE)usually bats 6th (×0.98)beats 4 of 6 eligible startersBassitt .340 allowed · soft SP0.85 OPS vs RHP (149 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	66
6	DEPTHJared Young1B · 1% own	vs HOU · Pecko RHP	szn .314 xwOBAL15: 0.787 OPS (47 PA)L14 contact -3.9 (.283 xwOBAcon, 37 BBE)usually bats 5thbeats 0 of 3 eligible startersPecko .428 allowed · soft SP0.823 OPS vs RHP (212 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	64
7	STARTTroy JohnstonRF · 4% own	@ ATL · Mahle RHP	szn .331 xwOBAL15: 1.029 OPS (28 PA)L14 contact +2.7 (.429 xwOBAcon, 20 BBE)usually bats 6th (×0.98)fills OF needbeats 4 of 8 eligible startersMahle .319 allowed · avg SP0.816 OPS vs RHP (266 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	62
8	AUTO STARTEdmundo Sosa2B · 0% own	@ LAA · Kikuchi LHP	szn .336 xwOBAusually bats 8th (×0.93)fills OF needbeats 8 of 11 eligible startersKikuchi .355 allowed · soft SP0.763 OPS vs LHP (101 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	60
9	AUTO STARTLawrence ButlerRF · 18% own	vs BAL · Bassitt RHP	szn .317 xwOBAL15: 1.042 OPS (60 PA)L14 contact +2.4 (.424 xwOBAcon, 31 BBE)usually bats 4th (×1.05)fills OF needbeats 4 of 6 eligible startersBassitt .340 allowed · soft SP0.701 OPS vs RHP (271 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	60
10	DEPTHNathaniel Lowe1B · 2% own	vs KC · Lugo RHP	szn .335 xwOBAL15: 0.484 OPS (50 PA)L14 contact -2.8 (.307 xwOBAcon, 33 BBE)usually bats 5thbeats 0 of 3 eligible startersLugo .344 allowed · soft SP0.847 OPS vs RHP (286 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	59

Tiers vs YOUR lineup tonight — median starter 19, worst Royce Lewis (3). AUTO START = beats the median eligible starter.

TBD starter = neutral SP + split legs until the probable posts (refresh upgrades it). Splits need 30+ AB vs that hand. IL bats are excluded; bats who rarely start against tonight's hand are dropped. Doubleheaders: legs average the ends he plays, and everyday bats get up to a ×1.50 volume boost. Lineup slot scales the score by expected PAs from the bat's usual spot (leadoff ×1.12 … 9-hole ×0.90, modal over the last ~10 played days) — his typical order, not today's card, since that posts after waivers run.

🎯 FA Hitters — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Kyle Schwarber

1Mickey GasperC · Bos · 5.9%HEATER

90/99 heat on 25 BBE trusted sample; .546/.423 recent production is real, not noise

Heat 90 · 25 BBE · ATC 9 PA · 0 HR · 0 SB · 0.225 · L7 0.546 · 2 HR · sim -0.1 pts

2Lars Nootbaar

LF · Ari · 2.5% · HEATER

90/99 heat on 26 BBE; 2 HR, 7 RBI last 7 with .316 BA confirms contact quality signal

Heat 90 · 26 BBE · ATC 69 PA · 2 HR · 1 SB · 0.245 · L7 0.316 · 2 HR · sim -0.1 pts

3Colton Cowser

CF · Bal · 1.8% · HEATER

80/99 heat on 26 BBE trusted sample; .467 BA, 2 HR last 7 days with SB upside for rank-6 need

Heat 80 · 26 BBE · ATC 80 PA · 3 HR · 2 SB · 0.223 · L7 0.467 · 2 HR · sim -0.1 pts

4Xander Bogaerts

SS · SD · 18.6% · BEST VALUE

Highest roto sim delta (+0.1); 103 PA everyday role, 3 SB helps live category, solid floor

ATC 103 PA · 2 HR · 3 SB · 0.259 · L7 0.177 · 0 HR · sim +0.1 pts

5Trevor Story

SS · Bos · 10.3% · CATEGORY FIT

+0.1 roto sim; 3 SB projection directly attacks MIZ's live SB gap of 6 steals

ATC 88 PA · 3 HR · 3 SB · 0.239 · sim +0.1 pts

Passed on: Colt Keith has a legitimate 87/99 heat signal on 19 BBE but a brutal last-7 line (0-for-12) with zero production corroboration makes the heater unactionable right now.

💪 Hitter List Rankings

PL Top 150 hitters · your bats + top FAs.

On Hitter List · 17 yours · 8 FAs

Rank	Hitter	MLB	Pos	Chg	AVG	xwOBA	HR	SB	RoS	Chu’s Take
16	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	DH	+3	.244	.366	40	3	127
18	Randy Arozarena	SEA	OF	-	.271	.347	20	20	123
21	Miguel Vargas	CHW	1B/3B	+19	.249	.391	29	13	114	Miguel Vargas has returned to the levels we saw early this summer and that really revs my engine. He’s one of those players who has shown…
36	Yandy Díaz	TB	1B	+3	.304	.355	20	3	123
46	Zach Neto	LAA	SS	+11	.236	.306	23	18	110	Zach Neto has been a monster over the last nine games, with 17 hits, 18 combined runs and RBI (a seven RBI night helps), and seven extra-…
59	Jac Caglianone	KC	1B/OF	+13	.285	.362	23	6	107	Jac Caglianone still hits a lot of grounders, but not quite as many as before (the rolling 15-game rate is a hair below 50%) and the stri…
72	Ty France	SD	1B	+12	.287	.331	19	1	106
77	Royce Lewis	MIN	1B/2B/3B	-15	.235	.313	13	14	104	Royce Lewis is streaky. We just gotta deal with that.
85	Cole Carrigg	COL	SS/OF	-22	.263	.324	6	8	68	The strikeouts have creeped up on Cole Carrigg , up to 32% over his last 11 games (which is, conveniently, exactly 50 plate appearances).…
109	Mickey Gasper	BOS	C	+UR	.278	.360	5	0	94	Mickey Gasper — Fantastic mustache, first of all. Second of all, the batted ball data suggests what’s happening of late is very real, tho…
115	Kaelen Culpepper	MIN	SS	+UR	.312	.315	3	0	91	Kaelen Culpepper — Culpepper puts a lot of balls in play and it’s working out so far. The BABIP Gods can be cruel, though. The 55 point g…
119	Rafael Flores Jr.	PIT	C/1B	+UR	.234	.345	7	0	83
135	Henry Bolte	ATH	OF	+UR	.271	.304	6	14	91	Henry Bolte is leading off again and should get some games in Sacramento soon, if you need a streamer.
140	Lawrence Butler	ATH	OF	+UR	.228	.317	12	10	89
145	Tyler Stephenson	CIN	C	-33	.248	.337	13	0	98
146	Ryan Jeffers	MIN	C	-29	.269	.350	10	1	118
148	Andruw Monasterio	BOS	2B/SS	-26	.249	.299	6	4	92
149	Dylan Crews	WSH	OF	-35	.223	.315	10	8	88
150	Luis Rengifo	SD	2B/3B/OF	-24	.240	.304	4	6	87
TS	Bryce Eldridge	SF	1B	—	.261	.354	15	1	99	Bryce Eldridge (1B, SFG) — Power prospects can often take a while to really shine.
TS	Jordan Lawlar	Ari	3B/OF	—	.271	.311	3	4	89	Jordan Lawlar (3B/OF, ARI) — I do not love that he’s sat against two of the three righties the D-Backs have faced, nor the strikeouts. He…
TS	Pedro Ramirez	ChC	2B/3B	—	.292	.311	4	7	91	Pedro Ramirez (2B/3B, CHC) — Hitting well when he plays, which is not very often.
TS	Walker Jenkins	Min	OF	—	.333	.324	0	1	92	Walker Jenkins (OF, MIN) — Jenkins will get the call today after a white-hot month in the triple-A. He’s worth a scoop in most leagues, E…
UR	James Wood	Wsh	OF	—	.265	.419	30	17	129	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Ralphy Velazquez	Cle	1B	—	—	—	—	—	83	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.

🔥 Heat Board

Hottest ACTIVE free-agent bats by contact quality, 8/16–8/29 · Heat = percentile vs all MLB bats over the same window (xwOBAcon 30 · EV 20 · Brl 20 · HH 15 · K 10 · BB 5) · min 15 BBE to qualify (smaller samples live in the HM rail) · IL excluded.

Lars Nootbaar

LF · Ari · 2.5% own · xwOBAcon .514 · EV 93.3 · Brl 19.2% · 26 BBE

▲ .077 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.233	6	27	29	2
L14	.310	3	10	5	0

Mickey Gasper

C · Bos · 5.9% own · xwOBAcon .601 · EV 91.0 · Brl 24.0% · 25 BBE

▲ .145 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.278	5	19	17	0
L14	.423	5	12	6	0

Colt Keith

1B · Det · 5.2% own · xwOBAcon .511 · EV 94.7 · Brl 10.5% · 19 BBE

▼ .022 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.262	9	32	46	5
L14	.240	1	1	4	0

Ryan Vilade

RF · TB · 0.2% own · xwOBAcon .682 · EV 97.6 · Brl 18.8% · 16 BBE

▲ .130 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.261	11	37	25	3
L14	.391	2	2	5	0

Esmerlyn Valdez

RF · Pit · 16.4% own · xwOBAcon .496 · EV 95.2 · Brl 20.0% · 15 BBE

▼ .062 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.244	15	42	36	0
L14	.182	1	1	5	0

Brett Baty

3B · NYM · 2.6% own · xwOBAcon .479 · EV 91.8 · Brl 16.7% · 18 BBE

▲ .137 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.223	8	40	45	5
L14	.360	0	2	2	0

Luis Torrens

C · NYM · 0.7% own · xwOBAcon .517 · EV 90.8 · Brl 20.0% · 15 BBE

▲ .059 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.241	8	33	31	1
L14	.300	3	5	3	0

Jimmy Crooks

C · StL · 0.1% own · xwOBAcon .445 · EV 94.4 · Brl 26.7% · 15 BBE

▲ .029 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.179	5	14	10	0
L14	.208	1	2	3	0

Colton Cowser

CF · Bal · 1.8% own · xwOBAcon .451 · EV 94.0 · Brl 11.5% · 26 BBE

▲ .105 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.228	13	36	38	8
L14	.333	3	5	5	0

Hao-Yu Lee

3B · Det · 1.4% own · xwOBAcon .384 · EV 93.5 · Brl 9.7% · 31 BBE

▲ .010 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.268	7	33	26	2
L14	.278	1	5	6	1

Honorable mention · hottest L7 (8/23–8/29), not yet on the board · tiny samples — peek, don't trust

Drew Gilbert

RF · SF

.520 xwOBAcon

18 BBE · .263 L7

Drew Cavanaugh

C · SF

.627 xwOBAcon

10 BBE · .222 L7

Brady House

3B · Wsh

.452 xwOBAcon

16 BBE · .263 L7

Ezequiel Tovar

SS · Col

.542 xwOBAcon

14 BBE · .316 L7

Jonah Cox

CF · SF

.552 xwOBAcon

10 BBE · .400 L7

James McCann

C · Ari

.518 xwOBAcon

9 BBE · .286 L7

🎯 FA Pitchers — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Kyle Harrison

1Dylan SmithRP · SF · 0.5%BEST VALUE

Roto sim leader +1.2; confirmed closer role; SV gap only 8 from rank-2, clean ratios

Supp 41 · 13 BBE · ATC 10.0 IP · 1 W · 9 K · 3.97 · 1.33 · 3 SV · Closer · sim +1.2 pts

2Andrew Kittredge

RP · Bal · 1.9% · CATEGORY FIT

Roto sim +0.9, confirmed closer role, 2 SV projected RoS; SV rank-3 needs cushion

Supp 32 · 17 BBE · ATC 10.0 IP · 1 W · 10 K · 3.87 · 1.21 · 2 SV · Closer · sim +0.9 pts

3Calvin Faucher

RP · Mia · 0.8% · CATEGORY FIT

Confirmed closer role, +0.7 sim delta; SV depth insurance, ratios acceptable

Supp 67 · 11 BBE · ATC 10.0 IP · 1 W · 10 K · 3.96 · 1.39 · 1 SV · Closer · sim +0.7 pts

4Grayson Rodriguez

SP · LAA · 2.8% · HEATER

87th-percentile suppression on 37 BBE trusted sample; +0.2 sim, behind GS-cap pace

Supp 87 · 37 BBE · ATC 23.0 IP · 2 W · 23 K · 4.30 · 1.31 · sim +0.2 pts

5AJ Smith-Shawver

SP · Atl · 1.9% · UPSIDE

Highest SP sim delta +0.4; elite K-rate projection 13K/12IP; low role certainty is the risk

Supp 80 · 32 BBE · ATC 12.0 IP · 1 W · 13 K · 4.14 · 1.32 · sim +0.4 pts

Passed on: Hayden Wesneski (+0.2 sim, 74th-percentile suppression) edged out because Rodriguez's suppression sample is more trusted (37 vs 23 BBE) and the Houston rotation role is less secure.

⚾ Pitcher List Rankings

PL Top 100 SP · your arms + top FAs.

On Pitcher List · 6 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Pitcher	MLB	Chg	ERA	xERA	K/9	RoS	Pollack’s Take
1	Jacob Misiorowski	MIL	-	1.73	2.00	13.2	3.32	Like a base set Charizard, Misiorowski’s not gonna stop being dope.
9	Blake Snell	LAD	+7	2.42	2.09	12.5	3.42	#HotSnellSummer is in full swing.
10	Dylan Cease	TOR	-1	2.33	2.65	13.0	3.45	Like a perfect burger without the condiments to hit all your macros, Cease gives you everything except for a stable WHIP due to his infla…
20	Kyle Harrison	MIL	+8	2.79	3.24	11.1	4.12	With a dominant outing, he muted our concerns, but Harrison’s still displaying decreased velocity and not commanding as well as he did in…
22	Eury Pérez	MIA	-4	3.44	3.72	9.8	3.87	Pérez has the stuff to be an ace, but there’s polishing to do in the command and game plan departments to unlock his full potential.
30	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	-4	3.46	3.61	6.6	4.19	Baseball’s premier innings eater hasn’t ruined his appetite.
38	Jacob Lopez	ATH	+6	4.82	3.41	8.7	4.63	It’s the 2025 hot streak all over again. Enjoy the ride, ya’ll!
39	Dustin May	MIL	-	4.56	4.19	8.5	4.09	May got Singled Out in a disastrous performance, but his stuff is still dope, and his new situation is ideal. Higher win chance, great de…
40	Walbert Ureña	LAA	-	2.94	3.43	8.7	4.54	Armed with upper-90s heaters and one of the best changeups in baseball, Ureña has hit few speed bumps. If that developing sweeper becomes…
43	Andrew Painter	PHI	+UR	5.95	4.58	7.8	4.78	From off The List to inside the Top 50, Painter has stolen our hearts with an improved heater (97+ mph with 17-18″ iVB) and emphasis on r…
45	Peter Lambert	HOU	-4	3.66	3.54	8.8	4.58	Lambert’s stumble last time was a product of being Singled Out . He’s been reliable all year, but we should be recognizing that Holly is …
46	Jared Jones	PIT	-8	4.83	3.80	10.3	3.99	The stuff is top-tier, but he’s still shaking off the Tommy John surgery rust with his command and the tight leash the Pirates have on hi…
54	Joey Cantillo	CLE	-8	3.70	3.96	9.6	4.05	Efficiency is a problem, but Cantillo is doing everything we want. More curveballs, faster fastballs, and supportive cutters. Throw more …
56	Shane Bieber	TOR	+14	4.37	5.93	7.1	4.19	Bieber is back in business. His heater looked awesome in The Trop, and his offspeed pitches are being the CSW monsters they need to be to…
58	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	-	3.51	3.75	6.2	4.60	Despite what the line suggests, Pfaadt’s last start wasn’t an end to his Vargas Rule . It was a textbook Careful, Icarus with a three-run…
59	Christian Scott	NYM	+1	3.80	4.02	10.7	3.94	Scott has been happy to show us his floor, but the stuff is still there to propel him up The List at a moment’s notice. It’s felt a littl…

🔒 Closer Chart

Save targets · roles + regression flags.

BLUEEntrenched closer (highest leverage)GREENNext man up / committee pieceYELLOWSetup, 8th-inning leverageORANGESpeculative / lower priorityMAGENTAHigh-upside future / multi-inning

	Pitcher	Tm	Role	SV	SVHD	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K/9	Rtg / Own
Yours on the chart
—	Andrés Muñoz	Seattle Mariners	CL	24	24	48.3	4.28	1.22	3.31	14.3	5.0 · —
—	Louis Varland	Toronto Blue Jays	CL	31	36	68.7	1.18	0.98	2.18 ↑	11.0	5.0 · —
—	Justin Martinez	Arizona Diamondbacks	FU	0	0	3.7	0.00	1.09	3.24 ↑	9.8	1.0 · —
Top 5 FA closers (by team rating)
	Andrew Kittredge b2b	Baltimore Orioles	CL	8	17	42.3	3.19	1.37	3.94	7.4	4.0 · 2%
—	Calvin Faucher	Miami Marlins	CL	2	16	56.3	3.99	1.37	3.72	10.1	3.5 · 1%
	Juan Morillo	Arizona Diamondbacks	CL	2	19	53.3	2.19	1.01	2.25	10.5	1.0 · 3%
	Dylan Smith	San Francisco Giants	CL	3	10	29.7	3.34	1.31	3.56	11.5	1.0 · 0%
	Orlando Ribalta	Washington Nationals	CL	2	14	42.0	3.86	1.24	3.77	8.6	1.0 · 0%

ERA cell: green <3.00 · red >4.50. xERA arrow: ↓ ERA likely to fall (buy) · ↑ ERA likely to rise (sell). Triggers when |xERA−ERA| ≥ 1.00.

✂️ Cut List

Drop priority · value, form, pedigree, role.

51	Royce Lewis 3B · Min low TV (17) sim cost ~0	TV 17 Rd 13
40	Justin Martinez RP · Ari low TV (17); BUT fresh-callup upside; BUT strong RoS (3.46 ERA) sim cost ~0	TV 17 UFDA
20	Ryan Jeffers C · Min mid TV (45); BUT top-tier keeper; BUT young breakout signal sim cost ~0	TV 45 UFDA
14	Kyle Harrison SP · Mil mid TV (60); UFDA — easy to drop; BUT top-tier keeper sim cost ~0	TV 60 UFDA
11	Sandy Alcantara SP · Mia BUT solid keeper sim cost ~0	TV 72 Rd 14

Higher score = drop sooner — top 5 by score, and only 8+ reaches the board, so the number has no ceiling and is only comparable within this list. The sim line is a roto-sim marginal (cut vs. keep on one shared set of draws), not a measured cost. Pedigree + named closers shielded.

🌱 Stash List

PL's top prospects · grab them cheap.

Hitters

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 23: Top 10 Hitting Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + PSS + PFV + age + 40-man + path.

23 available — 2 yours

W. Jenkins YOURS

OF · MIN · AAA · 21 · ↗ called up

100

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

14·18·.323

R. Velazquez YOURS

1B/C · CLE · AA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

28·2·.293

J. Tibbs III

OF · LAD · AAA · 23 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

27·8·.295

S. Thompson

OF · COL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

12·16·.299

M. Arroyo

SS · SEA · AAA · 21 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

18·16·.279

Z. Hope

OF · DET · AA · 21 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

26·23·.282

M. Anderson

2B · DET · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

16·5·.307

J. Melton

OF · TB · AAA · 25 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

7·26·.292

B. Davidson

OF · SFG · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

September

Szn

25·19·.279

C. Cannarella

OF · MIA · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

13·21·.332

S. Walcott

3B/SS · TEX · AA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

5·8·.306

L. Montes

OF · SEA · AAA · 21 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

38·8·.247

Y. Morales

3B · WSN · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

24·6·.287

R. Ward

LF · LAD · AAA · 28 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

20·7·.251

S. King

SS/2B/3B · WSN · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

18·14·.317

C. Ingle

C · CLE · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

18·2·.287

P. Harber

3B · SFG · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

'27

Szn

17·4·.284

J. Made

SS · MIL · AA · 19 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

13·35·.270

H. Mendez

OF · MIN · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

12·4·.278

J. Long

1B · CHC · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

13·3·.278

K. Alderman

OF · MIA · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

18·10·.262

E. Salas

C · SDP · AAA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September

Szn

10·16·.296

D. Crisantes

2B/3B · ARI · AAA · 21 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

9·0·.294

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

Pitchers

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 23: Top 10 Pitching Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + L3 quality + FV + age + 40-man + path.

25 available

L. Perales

SP · WSN · AAA · 23 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

100K·3.94

H. Smith

SP · CHW · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

August 1st

Szn

103K·3.76

B. Mautz

SP · STL · AAA · 24 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

99K·4.12

C. Seymour

SP · SFG · AAA · 27 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

86K·3.95

R. Snelling

SP · MIA · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

46K·2.38

J. Tong

SP · NYM · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

133K·4.46

R. Sloan

SP · nearly ready

PSS

100

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

117K·3.50

T. Bremner

SP · LAA · AA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

92K·4.08

T. Johnson

SP · TBR · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

82K·2.85

O. Murphy

SP · ATL · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

119K·3.95

D. Davalillo

SP · TEX · AAA · 24 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

91K·5.01

C. Crow

SP · MIL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

97K·3.82

A. Kelly

SP · PIT · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

71K·4.55

M. Forret

SP · BAL · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

121K·3.83

B. Garrett

SP · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

June 1st

Szn

105K·3.95

T. McDougal

SP · CHW · AAA · 23 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

47K·4.75

G. Wood

SP · PHI · AA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

124K·4.40

C. Dana

SP · LAA · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

72K·5.90

J. Wenninger

SP · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

110K·4.23

M. Ullola

SP · HOU · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

95K·4.35

T. Gibson

SP · BAL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

98K·5.13

B. Hopkins

SP · TBR · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

112K·5.46

K. Curtis

SP · PIT · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

113K·4.48

D. Sandlin

SP · CHW · MLB · 25 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

88K·3.46

L. Braun

SP · ATL · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

101K·3.72

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

🔭 11 not a 2026 factor — Liam Doyle · Anthony Eyanson · Jamie Arnold · Joseph Dzierwa · Christian Zazueta · Bryce Mayer · Jaxon Wiggins · Jurrangelo Cijntje · Tyson Hardin · Jonathan Santucci · Karson Milbrandt

💼 Trades

Buy-low targets · league trade history.

Top Buy-Lows

Rebound candidates · suggested offers.

Hitters

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Trent Grisham CF · NYY · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.3σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.213 / xBA 0.245 · xwOBA 0.339	31%	114 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Royce Lewis 3B + Bryce Eldridge 1B · two-piece package (TV 42 vs target 37)
📈 BUY-LOW	Juan Soto RF · NYM · GARR · jregarris +1.1σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.283 / xBA 0.298 · xwOBA 0.421	100%	159 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Kyle Schwarber DH · comparable value (TV 100 vs target 100)
📈 BUY-LOW	JJ Bleday CF · Cin · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.3σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.217 / xBA 0.246 · xwOBA 0.350	24%	105 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 24 vs target 27)
📈 BUY-LOW	Ronald Acuna Jr. RF · Atl · GoOs · My Best Guys +1.2σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.236 / xBA 0.256 · xwOBA 0.363	98%	136 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Blake Snell SP + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 80 vs target 87)
📈 BUY-LOW	Heriberto Hernandez LF · Mia · FRAN · francisw789 +1.2σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.235 / xBA 0.251 · xwOBA 0.353	8%	99 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Royce Lewis 3B · comparable value (TV 17 vs target 23)
↑ mild buy	Taylor Ward LF · Sea · GoOs · My Best Guys +0.6σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.230 / xBA 0.243 · xwOBA 0.337	61%	118 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Jac Caglianone RF + +$4 FAAB · comparable value (TV 52 vs target 60)
↑ mild buy	Dominic Canzone RF · Sea · GARR · jregarris +0.6σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.256 / xBA 0.271 · xwOBA 0.357	12%	114 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Walker Jenkins CF + Bryce Eldridge 1B · two-piece package (TV 29 vs target 34)
↑ mild buy	Kyle Stowers LF · Mia · KNIG · TKHOO +0.7σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.243 / xBA 0.233 · xwOBA 0.331	27%	111 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 24 vs target 27)
↑ mild buy	Brandon Nimmo LF · Tex · DORN · Lambertmt48 +0.5σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.262 / xBA 0.279 · xwOBA 0.356	67%	119 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Royce Lewis 3B + Bryce Eldridge 1B · two-piece package (TV 42 vs target 45)
📈 BUY-LOW	Mike Trout OF · LAA · KNIG · TKHOO +1.4σ buy-low · OF — fits a need · BA 0.239 / xBA 0.251 · xwOBA 0.379	94%	128 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Sandy Alcantara SP · comparable value (TV 72 vs target 77)

Pitchers

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Kodai Senga SP · NYM · KRTZ · FratSkins +1.3σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 7.50 vs xERA 5.10	10%	3.96 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Ralphy Velazquez 1B · comparable value (TV 2 vs target 4)
📈 BUY-LOW	Kade Anderson SP · Sea · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.5σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.50 vs xERA 2.27	32%	4.60 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Royce Lewis 3B + Bryce Eldridge 1B · two-piece package (TV 42 vs target 42)
↑ mild buy	Freddy Peralta SP · TB · KNIG · TKHOO +0.7σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 5.11 vs xERA 3.96	69%	4.01 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Royce Lewis 3B + Bryce Eldridge 1B · two-piece package (TV 42 vs target 43)
↑ mild buy	Bryce Miller SP · Sea · BLOB · crenshawh19 +0.6σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.12 vs xERA 3.17	33%	4.10 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Jac Caglianone RF · comparable value (TV 52 vs target 48)

League History

Completed trades · frozen grade at the deal + live grade now.

Side	Sent	At deal	Now	Trend
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Andy Pages	A- +7	A+ +44	▲ up
Camp MVP	Pete Crow-Armstrong	C -7	F -44	▼ down
Team Knighton ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Team Knighton	Matthew Boyd	F -22	F -22
Camp MVP	Kenley Jansen	A+ +22	A+ +22
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Worst2First 2026-08-10
Miz-waukee’s Best	Charlie Condon, Payton Tolle	A+ +50	A+ +35	▼ down
Worst2First	Dylan Cease	F -50	F -35	▲ up
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Dorn and Associates LLC 2026-08-05
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Travis Bazzana, George Lombard Jr., Nolan McLean	A+ +144	A+ +106	▼ down
Dorn and Associates LLC	Jackson Chourio, Jhoan Duran, Brice Turang, David Bednar	F -144	F -106	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-07-31
Miz-waukee’s Best	Samuel Basallo, Kade Anderson	A- +8	A+ +32	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine	Blake Snell	C -8	F -32	▼ down
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Team Knighton 2026-07-23
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Jo Adell, Jacob deGrom	F -49	F -63	▼ down
Team Knighton	Trea Turner	A+ +49	A+ +63	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine ⇄ Miz-waukee’s Best 2026-07-19
Ramirez Against the Machine	Sandy Alcantara	F -42	F -68	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best	Josh Jung	A+ +42	A+ +68	▲ up
I need Buck Showalter ⇄ Hit the Damn Ball You Bums 2026-06-19
I need Buck Showalter	Nasim Nunez	A+ +28	B +1	▼ down
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Justin Wrobleski	F -28	B -1	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ The Boys of Summer 2026-06-12
Miz-waukee’s Best	Chandler Simpson	A +10	A- +7	▼ down
The Boys of Summer	$30 FAAB	D -10	C -7	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-05-01
Miz-waukee’s Best	Kenley Jansen	—	A- +7
Camp MVP	$30 FAAB	A- +3	C -7	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-04-22
Miz-waukee’s Best	Nathan Eovaldi, $70 FAAB	—	F -15
Ramirez Against the Machine	Jac Caglianone	A+ +60	A+ +15	▼ down

🔻 Sell-High — My Roster

Surface line outrunning the underlying skill — trade-value peaks. σ = his surface-stat z-score minus his Statcast-skill z-score, both against the league reference for his side — bigger σ = further ahead of the skill. Pair with Buy-Low Targets.

Verdict	Player	Own	Surface vs expected	Contact	2027 keeper
↓ SHOP	Henry Bolte RF · Oak 0.67σ sell-high · RF · BA 0.271 / xBA 0.241 · xwOBA 0.304 — test the market, don't force it	4%	BA 0.271 / xBA 0.241 +.030 wOBA 0.323 / xwOBA 0.304 +.019	HH 48.2% · Brl/PA 4.2%	25th · +2 rds vs mkt
↓ SHOP	Yandy Diaz 1B · TB 0.63σ sell-high · 1B · BA 0.304 / xBA 0.287 · xwOBA 0.355 — test the market, don't force it	93%	BA 0.304 / xBA 0.287 +.017 wOBA 0.365 / xwOBA 0.355 +.010	HH 47.6% · Brl/PA 5.4%	7th · +1 rd vs mkt
HOLD — KEEPER PRICE	Louis Varland RP · Tor 0.41σ sell-high · RP · ERA 1.18 vs xERA 2.18 — only move for keeper-grade return	87%	ERA 1.18 / xERA 2.18 -1.00	Brl 4.2% allowed	22nd · +16 rds vs mkt

👥 Your Roster

Your roster · news + buy/sell signals.

News (last 24h)

Player news · last 24h.

Walker Jenkins Fantasy baseball news and notes: Dodgers push back Ohtani, Glasnow to start Sunday
Sun 08-30 11:58 AM
All of the important fantasy spin and actionable takeaways resulting from the latest baseball news.
Bryce Eldridge Eldridge has 4 hits, drives in 4 runs as Giants beat Diamondbacks 7-2 to split doubleheader
Sun 08-30 08:49 AM
— Bryce Eldridge had four hits and drove in four runs and the San Francisco Giants beat the Arizona Diamondbacks 7-2 on Saturday night to split a doubleheader.
Kyle Schwarber Sanchez sharp, Schwarber, Turner have 10th-inning hits in Phillies' 4-2 win over Angels
Sun 08-30 05:24 AM
— Kyle Schwarber hit a go-ahead RBI single and Trea Turner had a two-run single in a three-run 10th inning in the Philadelphia Phillies' 4-2 victory over the Los Angeles Angels on Saturday night.
Yandy Diaz Simpson's RBI single caps 4-run 7th inning as Rays rally to defeat Padres 7-6
Sat 08-29 11:47 PM
— Yandy Diaz knocked in three runs with a bases-loaded single in the seventh inning and Chandler Simpson followed with a tiebreaking RBI hit as the Tampa Bay Rays rallied to beat San Diego 7-6 on Saturday in a game in which Padres second baseman Luis...

Leverage Buys/Sells

Buy/sell windows · surface vs. underlying.

Hitters

Player	Pos	MLB	BA	xBA	wOBA	xwOBA	Brl%	Own%	Signal
James Wood IL10	LF	Wsh	0.265	0.275	0.395	0.419	100.0	99.1	📈 BUY-LOW
Miguel Vargas	3B	ChW	0.249	0.269	0.369	0.391	92.0	95.3	📈 BUY-LOW
Kyle Schwarber	DH	Phi	0.244	0.238	0.379	0.366	98.0	99.5	📈 BUY-LOW
Bryce Eldridge	1B	SF	0.261	0.254	0.353	0.354	77.0	8.4	↑ mild buy
Zach Neto	SS	LAA	0.236	0.208	0.328	0.306	76.0	61.0	fair
Jac Caglianone	RF	KC	0.285	0.283	0.359	0.362	93.0	60.0	fair
Yandy Diaz	1B	TB	0.304	0.287	0.365	0.355	46.0	92.8	↓ mild fade
Cole Carrigg	CF	Col	0.263	0.256	0.341	0.324	—	13.4	fair
Ryan Jeffers	C	Min	0.269	0.250	0.365	0.350	72.0	39.6	fair
Randy Arozarena	LF	Sea	0.271	0.259	0.364	0.347	49.0	93.9	fair
Henry Bolte	RF	Oak	0.271	0.241	0.323	0.304	41.0	4.0	↓ mild fade
Kaelen Culpepper	SS	Min	0.312	0.245	0.370	0.315	—	6.7	fair
Royce Lewis	3B	Min	0.235	0.242	0.306	0.313	71.0	16.1	fair
Walker Jenkins	CF	Min	0.333	0.203	0.407	0.324	20.0	9.9	—
Jordan Lawlar	3B	Ari	0.271	0.255	0.340	0.311	—	3.0	fair
Ralphy Velazquez	1B	Cle	—	—	—	—	—	0.8	—
Pedro Ramirez	3B	ChC	0.292	0.269	0.347	0.311	—	5.3	fair

Pitchers

Pitcher	Pos	MLB	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K-BB%	xwOBA-a	Brl%-a	Own%	Signal
Blake Snell	SP	LAD	26.0	2.42	1.08	2.09	22.0	0.225	1.7	89.1	↑ mild buy
Andres Munoz	RP	Sea	48.3	4.28	1.22	3.31	27.9	0.283	9.4	80.2	↑ mild buy
Joe Ryan IL15	SP	Min	125.7	4.08	1.15	3.48	21.2	0.290	10.5	89.9	fair
Jacob Misiorowski	SP	Mil	151.0	1.73	0.75	2.00	32.7	0.220	3.6	99.6	fair
Dylan Cease	SP	Tor	150.3	2.33	1.05	2.65	25.3	0.254	5.1	99.3	fair
Sandy Alcantara	SP	Mia	189.7	3.46	1.19	3.61	11.5	0.295	5.1	91.3	fair
Eury Perez	SP	Mia	130.7	3.44	1.13	3.72	16.2	0.299	9.3	80.4	fair
Kyle Harrison	SP	Mil	103.3	2.79	1.12	3.24	23.6	0.280	6.8	77.9	fair
Louis Varland	RP	Tor	68.7	1.18	0.98	2.18	24.7	0.230	4.2	86.6	↓ mild fade
Justin Martinez	RP	Ari	3.7	0.00	1.09	3.24	6.2	0.280	0.0	1.6	—

📰 MLB News — Top Fantasy Stories

🔒 Keepers — 2027 Slate

Peter's model (additive): rounds-saved (cost arbitrage spine) + current skill + career-grade pedigree + sample stability + Statcast over/under-performance trend, with age-decline (33+), closer/RP, and top-30 talent adjustments. Heavy on bargain-hunting.
Claude's model (multiplicative dynasty index): EFV(2027) = (3 + skill + upside) × age_mult × pos_mult; score = EFV − cost_replacement − mookie-lock. Compounds age curve and position scarcity.
Sorted by consensus rank (average of both models). MLB-inactive players surfaced in 🚑 Return Watch below.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict	Notes
1.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	21st	#1 (+24.4)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51	UFDA-G FV 55
2.0	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	22nd	#2 (+21.4)	#2 (+27.1)	S · $27
3.5	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	25th	#3 (+19.8)	#4 (+15.8)	A · $16	UFDA
4.0	Dylan Cease	SP · 30yo	4th	#5 (+13.0)	#3 (+17.5)	A · $17
4.5	Eury Perez	SP · 23yo	20th	#4 (+16.3)	#5 (+13.9)	A · $14	UFDA-G
7.0	Cole Carrigg	CF · 22yo	25th	#6 (+12.2)	#8 (+6.6)	B · $7	UFDA FV 40
7.0	Zach Neto	SS · 25yo	10th	#7 (+11.7)	#7 (+10.3)	A · $10
7.0	Randy Arozarena	LF · 31yo	4th	#8 (+10.4)	#6 (+11.7)	A · $12

NEW UFDA cap: Peter 2/3 · Claude 2/3 · BOTH = top 8 in both models. Peter only = his model values cost surplus more; Claude only = mine values projection / position scarcity more.

🚑 Return watch — would be keeper-eligible if they get MLB action this year. Rank shown is hypothetical (where they'd slot if eligible).

Player	Pos · Age	Cost	Peter (if elig.)	Claude (if elig.)
Walker Jenkins	CF · 20yo	25th	#12 (+0.6)	#10 (+2.7)
Ralphy Velazquez	1B · 19yo	25th	#12 (-2.0)	#10 (+1.4)

Updated Sun Aug 30 · 1:07 PM ET

🌍 League-Wide Top Keepers

Top 10 keepers · all 12 teams · both models. Yours in green.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	Team	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict
1.0	Jordan Walker	RF · 24yo	GARR	25th	#1 (+29.4)	#1 (+56.1)	S · $56
2.5	Jesus Luzardo	SP · 28yo	KNIG	21st	#2 (+28.9)	#3 (+42.1)	S · $42
3.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	MIZ	21st	#4 (+24.4)	#2 (+50.8)	S · $51
4.0	Bryan Baker	RP · 31yo	DORN	25th	#3 (+25.0)	#5 (+38.7)	S · $39
7.0	Nolan McLean	SP · 23yo	DORN	20th	#7 (+22.4)	#7 (+32.7)	S · $33
7.5	Cam Schlittler	SP · 24yo	KRTZ	19th	— (+19.5)	#4 (+40.8)	S · $41
8.0	Jose Soriano	SP · 27yo	BLOB	25th	#5 (+24.3)	— (+21.2)	S · $21
8.5	Logan Henderson	SP · 23yo	PEYT	25th	#6 (+22.5)	— (+18.5)	S · $18
8.5	Foster Griffin	SP · 30yo	GoOs	25th	#9 (+22.0)	#8 (+29.9)	S · $30
8.5	Wilyer Abreu	RF · 27yo	KNIG	15th	— (+19.4)	#6 (+37.2)	S · $37
9.5	Taj Bradley	SP · 25yo	GoOs	25th	#8 (+22.2)	— (+19.8)	S · $20
10.0	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	MIZ	22nd	— (+21.4)	#9 (+27.1)	S · $27
10.5	Payton Tolle	SP · 22yo	FRST	25th	#10 (+21.9)	— (+18.5)	S · $18
10.5	Drew Rasmussen	SP · 30yo	THAR	8th	— (+13.6)	#10 (+26.0)	S · $26

Updated Sun Aug 30 · 1:07 PM ET

🏚️ Keeper Cupboards

Every team's six best keepers · shade = dual-model consensus value. Cupboard score weights the top four heavily (the slots that get kept), keepers 5–8 taper. 100 = league's best cupboard.

Team	K1	K2	K3	K4	K5	K6	Cupboard
1MIZ	MisiorowskiR21	VarlandR22	VargasR25	CeaseR4	PerezR20	CarriggR25	100
2KNIG	LuzardoR21	AbreuR15	MartinezR25	RodriguezR25	deGromR13	EdwardsR10	99
3GoOs	GriffinR25	BradleyR25	ReynoldsR10	RafaelaR8	WachaR25	MeidrothR25	89
4GARR	WalkerR25	MessickR18	HancockR25	GoreR8	GrayR7	BuschR11	82
5DORN	BakerR25	McLeanR20	WarrenR25	NimmoR5	KingR6	WalkerR9	76
6BLOB	SorianoR25	LopezR20	ScottR25	SuarezR12	BurgerR19	ArandaR14	73
7FRAN	LatzR25	CavalliR21	BurnsR5	BradishR21	McClanahanR17	HarrisR25	71
8KRTZ	SchlittlerR19	BurkeR25	IIR5	McGonigleR17	StewartR10	ColeR11	70
9PEYT	HendersonR25	SanchezR9	WooR8	CameronR18	NolaR16	CruzR1	68
10THAR	RasmussenR8	O'BrienR17	WilliamsR11	MizeR19	HolmesR25	SkenesR1	67
11FRST ▼ thin	TolleR25	WheelerR8	ElderR25	GelofR25	SkubalR1	RogersR9	57
12RAGE ▼ thin	BledayR25	JumpR25	CamineroR5	ImanagaR9	BibeeR14	TorresR17	55

The bottom two rows are your trade marks — thin cupboards pay up for keepable pieces.

data: snap 5h · BP 5d · PL 5d · HL 2d · PSS 9h · BR 0h · FG 4h · proj 4h · closer 0h · oyster 0h · AAA-sc 14h · cookie ok