Miz-waukee’s Best — The Brandon League

Last updated Wednesday, August 26 · 04:22 AM ET

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Any player in the league universe · tap a result for the card.

☕ Morning Briefing

📊 MIZ holds first at 106.0 roto points, a comfortable 22.0 pts clear of second, though AVG demands attention — THAR is literally 0.000 behind you there, and their Sal Frelick (activated from IL today) could tighten that further.

⚾ Your guys delivered across the board yesterday: Andres Munoz was near-perfect with a save (1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 2 K vs Phillies), Royce Lewis went 2-for-4 with a stolen base vs the Athletics (a tick toward closing that 7-SB gap on THAR), Kyle Harrison gave you a solid 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 K line vs the Mets, and Justin Martinez added a win (1 IP, 0 ER vs Cubs).

🚨 The biggest actionable item today is a closer flip in Miami — Pete Fairbanks is IL-bound with right median nerve irritation, and Calvin Faucher inherits the role. Faucher is a free agent; grab him now. Also worth noting: closer role security for Bryan Baker (DORN) and Aroldis Chapman (KNIG) has each flipped to uncertain — neither is yours, but wobbling closers in competitors' hands is worth watching.

📈 On the waiver wire, Angel Genao was just dropped by Photogenic Nick Kurtz and is now a free agent if he fits your stash needs. Two contact-heat early signals to file away: Hao-Yu Lee (L7: 86/99, 0.486 xwOBAcon, 14 BBE) and Patrick Bailey (L7: 84/99, 0.593 xwOBAcon, 8 BBE) — both small samples but both flipping the switch, not yet on the Heat Board. Meanwhile, Phil Swift's Flex Seal has surged from #5 to #3 (+5.0 pts in 12 days), while Dorn and Associates has cratered from #8 to #11 (-7.5 pts) — Stanton now on the 60-day IL seals that slide.

📰 Tyler Glasnow (owned by BLOB) is activated off the 60-day IL for the Dodgers, making him immediately relevant in your standings race if BLOB is anywhere near you categorically. Nolan Gorman has been recalled by St. Louis and is a free agent — power-eligible 3B worth a look depending on your roster flexibility. Roman Anthony (DORN) begins a rehab assignment, which could further complicate DORN's already-freefall week, and Will Smith (KRTZ) is also on rehab with Oklahoma City — two key KRTZ/DORN assets not yet contributing at the MLB level.

ELIGIBILITYC. Carrigg SS 9/10K. Schwarber 1B 6/10

Your standing

1stof 12

106.0 roto pts +22.0 clear of 2nd

+0.5 pts vs last update

Top Gaps

SB (7.0) W (8.0)

categories below mid-pack

Score change since last update

W +0.5

🎯 Category Pressure

Category ranks vs. the league.

Rank →

Δ to #1

894

964

🥇

257

280

🥇

RBI

832

846

🥇

124

129

136

185

+56

AVG

.255

.257

+0.002

1119

1144

1224

+80

+11

+12

ERA

3.47

3.17

🥇

WHIP

1.18

1.11

🥇

📅 Yesterday's MIZ Box Scores (2026-08-25)

Loading box scores…

🏥 IL Rehab Tracker

IL players · rehab game logs.

On the IL, no rehab games yet: James Wood (IL10), Joe Ryan (IL15), Spencer Schwellenbach (IL60 · watch).

📊 League Activity (last 24h)

All adds, drops, and trades across the 12 teams.

Team	Move
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	+ Walbert Urena \| − Angel Genao
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	+ Lawrence Butler \| − Ryan Waldschmidt
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	+ Adrian Houser \| − George Klassen
Camp MVP	+ Tim Tawa
Camp MVP	− Tom Cosgrove
Team Knighton	− Jeff Hoffman

🏆 League Standings

Current roto points · 10,000-sim projected finish. FAAB = acquisition budget remaining.

99.0% to win the league · proj finish 1.0 · 101.2 roto pts

#	Team	Pts	FAAB	Win%	Proj Pts	Range	Proj Rk
1	MIZ Miz-waukee’s Best	106.0	$0	99.0%	101.2	96–106	1.0
2	FRAN Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	84.0	$74	1.0%	88.3	82–95	2.1
3	PEYT Phil Swift's Flex Seal	75.0	$35	0.0%	79.5	72–87	3.3
4	KRTZ Photogenic Nick Kurtz	75.0	$30	0.0%	77.6	71–85	3.7
5	GoOs I need Buck Showalter	73.5	$170	0.0%	71.1	64–77	5.0
6	BLOB Camp MVP	64.5	$168	0.0%	67.2	62–72	5.8
7	THAR Phil Mickeltits	62.5	$176	0.0%	59.3	53–65	7.2
8	KNIG Team Knighton	56.5	$137	0.0%	55.9	50–62	8.0
9	GARR The Boys of Summer	52.5	$155	0.0%	53.5	47–60	8.5
10	RAGE Ramirez Against the Machine	46.0	$163	0.0%	38.6	34–44	11.7
11	DORN Dorn and Associates LLC	44.0	$89	0.0%	42.5	38–48	10.8
12	FRST Worst2First	40.5	$154	0.0%	45.3	40–51	10.2

10,000 sims · fixed seed · noise CV talent 0.12 / idio 0.06 / team-cat 0.08 · assumes ATC rest-of-season rates

Your categories · projected roto points

R 12.0HR 12.0RBI 11.0SB 7.1AVG 8.3W 7.1SV 9.2K 10.6ERA 12.0WHIP 12.0

Winnable — push here: SB, AVG, W, SV.

🚨 Today's Streaming Board

147 of 200 GS · should be 165 · 18 behindBehind pace — stream aggressively

053 left · ~11.6/wk to cap · proj 178200

⏳ BP's post is late — Verdict pill is running on our score + Pitcher List for now (BP joins the top-2 once it posts).

Top FA streamers today

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Shane Bieber	vs. KCR	START	—	—	#11	Best fastball shape and secondaries of the season.
Joey Cantillo	@ LAA	START	—	5.5	#7	Ideal bounce-back matchup vs. Angels; start him.
Peter Lambert	@ NYY	START	—	5.1	#8	Blowup was fluky; Bronx start warrants benefit of doubt.
Dustin May	@ NYM	START	—	4.5	#9	Unlucky stretch; expects regression toward positive outcomes.
Nick Lodolo	@ SF	DART	—	2.9	#14	Matchup at Oracle Park elevates him; upside intact.
Matt Waldron	vs COL	DART⚠ opener	—	4.4	—	tough COL lineup, strong skills
Bubba Chandler	@ SD	DART	—	5.2	#19	Threw harder, still underwhelmed; needs better execution.
J.T. Ginn	vs MIN	DART	—	4.5	#18	Acknowledges streaming case but personally abstains.
Michael McGreevy	vs BAL	SIT	—	4.5	#20	Home park helps but profile too uninspiring to start.
Connor Prielipp	@ ATH	SIT	—	4.0	#22	High-stuff arsenal still uncontrolled; avoid.

Openers filtered: Spencer Miles

Your staff: 3.17 ERA / 1.11 WHIP · GS 147/200 — Behind pace — stream aggressively. Verdict = the best 2 of BP · our score · Pitcher List, averaged (low outlier dropped); before BP posts it's our score + PL. ⚠ = our matchup score dissented — eyeball that one. Tap a MIZ score for the reasoning.

Tomorrow · 1 of yours + top 5 FA · Thu 8/27 · BP not out yet, so pill = our score + Pitcher List

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Jacob Misiorowski	@ NYM	AUTO START	—	8.0	—	average NYM lineup, strong skills, hot recent form
Hayden Wesneski	@ NYY	DART	—	5.2	—	average NYY lineup
Sean Manaea	vs MIL	DART⚠ opener	—	4.6	—	soft MIL lineup, hot recent form, weak skills
Gabriel Hughes	@ WSH	SIT	—	3.8	—	tough WSH lineup, shaky recent form, short leash
Spencer Arrighetti	vs KC	SIT⚠ opener	—	3.2	—	average KC lineup, weak skills, hitter park
Jake Irvin	vs COL	SIT	—	2.4	—	tough COL lineup, shaky recent form, weak skills

📼 Streamer Report Card

Does the Streaming Board actually work? Every pick it showed, frozen at pick time and graded off the real box score. Two scoreboards below: first our own calls — the Verdict ladder and MIZ (our matchup score, 0–10) — then the outside lists behind them, BP (RelieverRecon's daily BP Streamers post) and PL (Pitcher List's tier ranking). Grades are recomputed from raw lines on every build — the rubric can change, the history follows.

Last 30d · 392 starts graded over 29 days · GOOD+ 52% · BLOWUP 16% · agg ERA 4.11 · WHIP 1.30 · 4.5 K/start · 418 picks logged, 16 never started, 10 awaiting a box score — not graded

Grade mix · all 392 graded starts

GEM 86 GOOD 119 OK 123 BLOWUP 64

GEM6+ IP, ≤1 ER · or 6+ IP, 8+ K, ≤2 ERGOODquality start (6+ IP, ≤3 ER) · or 5+ IP, ≤2 EROKheld the line without earning GOODBLOWUP5+ ER · or under 4 IP with 4+ ERGOOD+ = GEM + GOOD. A pick whose starter never took the ball grades to nothing and leaves every rate below.

Cohort	n	GOOD+	BLOWUP	ERA
Q1 — Do our own calls work? · Verdict ladder + MIZ bands · live board rows only, nothing backfilled
Verdict · AUTO START	21	71%	10%	3.06
Verdict · START	39	59%	8%	3.44
Verdict · DART	87	49%	15%	4.42
Verdict · SIT	163	48%	21%	4.40
MIZ ≥ 5.0	110	59%	13%	3.60
MIZ 3.5–4.9	106	53%	16%	4.43
MIZ < 3.5	79	41%	23%	4.87
All live board picks	310	51%	17%	4.18
Q1 read — GOOD+ falls 71% · 59% · 49% · 48% down the rungs, but BLOWUP does not rise with it, and MIZ sorts: GOOD+ falls 59% · 53% · 41% from the top band down.
Q2 — Which outside list earns the weight? · BP and PL graded on their own published lists · mostly rebuilt from git
PL · Auto Start	37	70%	14%	3.50
PL · Probably Start	40	62%	18%	3.71
PL · Questionable Start	98	51%	15%	4.43
PL · Do Not Start	191	50%	18%	4.11
BP · Auto	16	38%	6%	4.15
BP · Likely	63	48%	16%	4.14
All graded picks	392	52%	16%	4.11
Q2 read — against the 52% all-picks baseline, PL's top tiers clear it (70% · 62%) and BP's top tiers are too thin to call (38% · 48% on n=16 · n=63).

Rows are overlapping lenses on the same picks, not a partition — one start can be a PL Auto Start and a Verdict SIT at once, so they never sum to the headline; each group is read against its own baseline row.

⚠ Dissent check — the override is ahead so far — 67% GOOD+ on n=9. Splits are picks the board started over our MIZ sit-call (vs 51% for all live picks).

Calibration — do our numbers mean anything? · full season, 2026-06-29→2026-08-25 · 829 graded picks · MIZ on 295, BP on 230, Verdict on 310

The ladder above asks whether the tiers sort. This asks the harder question: is the number a probability — when the board says 7, do 70% of those starts come back GOOD+? Bins are equal-count and merge until every one clears n=15; the walk-forward rows are scored against a model that only ever saw earlier days.

Score bin	n	mean	GOOD+	95% CI
MIZ score → P(GOOD+) · our matchup score, 0–10 · live rows only · n=295
MIZ 0.5–3.2	61	2.4	41%	30%–54%
MIZ 3.3–3.9	63	3.6	48%	36%–60%
MIZ 4.0–4.8	54	4.4	56%	42%–68%
MIZ 4.9–5.6	59	5.2	49%	37%–62%
MIZ 5.7–8.9	58	6.4	67%	54%–78%
All MIZ-scored picks	295	—	52%	—
BP score → P(GOOD+) · RelieverRecon's published rating · includes git-backfilled rows · n=230
BP 4.6–6.6	48	6.1	35%	23%–50%
BP 6.7–7.3	44	7.0	52%	38%–66%
BP 7.4–7.7	47	7.5	45%	31%–59%
BP 7.8–8.4	47	8.1	47%	33%–61%
BP 8.5–10.0	44	9.1	43%	30%–58%
All BP-scored picks	230	—	44%	—
Verdict tier → P(GOOD+) · the consensus call itself · live rows only
AUTO START	21	—	71%	50%–86%
START	39	—	59%	43%–73%
DART	87	—	49%	39%–60%
SIT	163	—	48%	40%–55%

Out-of-sample	n	value	vs
Walk-forward probability · logistic on MIZ, refit daily on earlier days only · from 2026-08-05 · 20 days
Brier — our probability	231	0.249	lower is better
Brier — flat base rate to date	231	0.256	we win by 0.007
Brier — verdict-tier history	231	0.256	we win by 0.007
Log loss — our probability	231	0.691	lower is better
ECE — our probability	231	0.059	5 equal-count bins
ECE bins · predicted p vs what actually happened
said 32%–48%	46	41%	off by 3%
said 48%–52%	46	43%	off by 7%
said 53%–57%	47	45%	off by 11%
said 57%–61%	46	52%	off by 7%
said 61%–74%	46	63%	off by 2%
Verdict — usable with caveats: ECE 0.059 over n=231 out-of-sample picks (≤0.03 well calibrated · ≤0.07 usable with caveats); edges the flat base rate on Brier (0.249 vs 0.256, a thin margin; log-loss ~coin-flip).

🔥 Today's Hitter Streamers

Top 10 FA bats for today's slate · score = split vs SP hand (35%) + SP softness (35%) + bat quality (15%) + trailing 15 days (10%) + park (5%) · facing an elite arm fades the score hard (feast on weak pitchers).

#	Hitter	Matchup	Why	Legs	Score
1	AUTO STARTRafael Flores Jr.1B · 5% own	@ SD · Vásquez RHP	szn .353 xwOBAL15: 1.074 OPS (43 PA)L14 contact +6.0 (.515 xwOBAcon, 24 BBE)usually bats 5thbeats 3 of 3 eligible startersshort side vs RHP — 43% of ABVásquez .362 allowed · soft SP	L15 bat SP L/R park	80
2	AUTO STARTEsmerlyn ValdezRF · 18% own	@ SD · Vásquez RHP	szn .341 xwOBAL15: 0.772 OPS (50 PA)L14 contact +5.4 (.490 xwOBAcon, 22 BBE)usually bats 2nd (×1.10)fills OF needbeats 6 of 6 eligible startersVásquez .362 allowed · soft SP0.786 OPS vs RHP (129 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	80
3	AUTO STARTRyan WardLF · 0% own	@ ATL · Smith-Shawver RHP	szn .316 xwOBAfills OF needbeats 9 of 9 eligible startersSmith-Shawver .363 allowed · soft SP0.779 OPS vs RHP (52 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	66
4	AUTO STARTSpencer Horwitz1B · 4% own	@ SD · Vásquez RHP	szn .319 xwOBAL15: 0.343 OPS (45 PA)L14 contact -5.0 (.251 xwOBAcon, 26 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)beats 2 of 2 eligible startersVásquez .362 allowed · soft SP0.785 OPS vs RHP (253 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	63
5	AUTO STARTAbimelec Ortiz1B · 5% own	vs COL · Gordon RHP	szn .332 xwOBAL15: 0.658 OPS (49 PA)L14 contact +0.5 (.380 xwOBAcon, 30 BBE)usually bats 2nd (×1.10)fills OF needbeats 6 of 7 eligible startersGordon .333 allowed · soft SP0.792 OPS vs RHP (63 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	60
6	AUTO STARTJesus SanchezRF · 2% own	vs KC · Dobnak RHP	szn .330 xwOBAusually bats 5thfills OF needbeats 5 of 6 eligible startersDobnak .334 allowed · soft SP0.796 OPS vs RHP (222 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	59
7	AUTO STARTColt Keith1B · 5% own	vs TB · Peralta RHP	szn .339 xwOBAL15: 0.761 OPS (36 PA)L14 contact +5.8 (.498 xwOBAcon, 20 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)beats 4 of 5 eligible startersPeralta .313 allowed · avg SP0.774 OPS vs RHP (318 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	59
8	AUTO STARTHunter FeducciaC · 0% own	@ ATL · Smith-Shawver RHP	szn .319 xwOBAL15: 0.768 OPS (29 PA)L14 contact +4.3 (.466 xwOBAcon, 16 BBE)usually bats 9th (×0.90)beats 2 of 2 eligible startersSmith-Shawver .363 allowed · soft SP0.723 OPS vs RHP (146 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	58
9	AUTO STARTDrew GilbertRF · 0% own	vs CIN · Lodolo LHP	szn .319 xwOBAL15: 0.803 OPS (44 PA)L14 contact +6.0 (.505 xwOBAcon, 19 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)fills OF needbeats 5 of 6 eligible startersshort side vs LHP — 14% of ABLodolo .382 allowed · soft SP0.142 OPS vs LHP (41 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	58
10	AUTO STARTHyeseong Kim2B · 1% own	@ ATL · Smith-Shawver RHP	szn .304 xwOBAbeats 3 of 4 eligible startersSmith-Shawver .363 allowed · soft SP0.711 OPS vs RHP (102 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	58

Tiers vs YOUR lineup tonight — median starter 53, worst Randy Arozarena (20). AUTO START = beats the median eligible starter.

TBD starter = neutral SP + split legs until the probable posts (refresh upgrades it). Splits need 30+ AB vs that hand. IL bats are excluded; bats who rarely start against tonight's hand are dropped. Doubleheaders: legs average the ends he plays, and everyday bats get up to a ×1.50 volume boost. Lineup slot scales the score by expected PAs from the bat's usual spot (leadoff ×1.12 … 9-hole ×0.90, modal over the last ~10 played days) — his typical order, not today's card, since that posts after waivers run.

🎯 FA Hitters — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Miguel Vargas

1Luis Robert Jr.CF · NYM · 15.5%HEATER

89/99 heat on trusted 20-BBE sample, .617 xwOBAcon; 4 HR L14 adds to MIZ's dominant HR/R/RBI leads

Heat 89 · 20 BBE · ATC 113 PA · 4 HR · 5 SB · 0.233 · L7 0.4 · 2 HR · sim +0.3 pts

2Mickey Gasper

C · Bos · 4.9% · BEST VALUE

89/99 heat, .421 BA/.585 xwOBAcon L14 are real; boosts AVG in a live 2-spot race despite tiny ATC PA

Heat 89 · 18 BBE · ATC 11 PA · 0 HR · 0 SB · 0.225 · L7 0.417 · 1 HR · sim +0.3 pts

3Xander Bogaerts

SS · SD · 18.7% · FLOOR

29-BBE trusted heat, 119 PA projection, multi-cat contributor; BA slump is noise against quality contact

Heat 78 · 29 BBE · ATC 119 PA · 3 HR · 4 SB · 0.259 · L7 0.188 · 0 HR · sim +0.2 pts

4Justin Crawford

CF · Phi · 3.7% · CATEGORY FIT

+0.3 sim, 5 SB projected helps close 7-steal gap to rank 5; AVG-safe at .268 projection

ATC 102 PA · 1 HR · 5 SB · 0.268 · L7 0.167 · 0 HR · sim +0.3 pts

5Colt Keith

1B · Det · 5.3% · HEATER

86/99 heat on 20 BBE, 96.2 EV leads board; wRC+ 108 projection; last-7 cold spell is small-sample noise

Heat 86 · 20 BBE · ATC 116 PA · 3 HR · 1 SB · 0.259 · L7 0.167 · 0 HR · sim +0.0 pts

Passed on: Randal Grichuk has a scorching .45 BA and Heat board presence but only 48 projected PA on a White Sox roster — playing-time reality kills his ceiling.

💪 Hitter List Rankings

PL Top 150 hitters · your bats + top FAs.

On Hitter List · 17 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Hitter	MLB	Pos	Chg	AVG	xwOBA	HR	SB	RoS	Chu’s Take
18	Randy Arozarena	SEA	OF	-	.272	.350	20	20	123	Randy Arozarena is only hitting .238 in August, but his expected stats for this month suggest it should be closer to .280. I’m a little d…
19	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	DH	+2	.241	.368	39	3	129	When Kyle Schwarber is hot, he’s HOT. The Field of Dreams game was his second two-homer outing in his last five starts and facing the Twi…
39	Yandy Díaz	TB	1B	+10	.303	.356	19	3	123
40	Miguel Vargas	CHW	1B/3B	-10	.248	.389	29	12	113	Miguel Vargas continues to slump, and while there isn’t anything you should do about it from an add/drop perspective, it’s certainly frus…
57	Zach Neto	LAA	SS	+4	.236	.304	22	18	108
62	Royce Lewis	MIN	1B/2B/3B	+8	.236	.317	13	13	103
63	Cole Carrigg	COL	OF	+2	.268	.323	5	7	67
72	Jac Caglianone	KC	1B/OF	+23	.276	.361	22	6	107	Jac Caglianone has improved the strikeout rate in a huge way, and the ground ball rate is below 50%. All systems are GO.
77	Dansby Swanson	CHC	SS	+2	.216	.307	18	17	100
84	Ty France	SD	1B	+1	.287	.332	18	1	106
101	Tyler Soderstrom	ATH	1B/OF	+5	.245	.328	19	2	—
102	Jacob Wilson	ATH	SS	+8	.266	.282	7	4	—
112	Tyler Stephenson	CIN	C	+UR	.243	.337	12	0	95
114	Dylan Crews	WSH	OF	+15	.213	.322	10	8	89
117	Ryan Jeffers	MIN	C	+15	.277	.359	10	1	117
122	Andruw Monasterio	BOS	2B/SS	+15	.253	.301	6	4	90
126	Luis Rengifo	SD	2B/3B/OF	+17	.244	.305	4	6	86
133	Cam Smith	HOU	OF	+UR	.217	.323	17	10	100	OK, Cam Smith , go ahead, tease me one more time.
137	Abimelec Ortiz	WSH	1B/OF	+UR	.221	.332	5	0	88
139	Bryce Eldridge	SF	1B	-26	.252	.352	14	1	99	Bryce Eldridge is getting the ball in the air, but he’s not pulling it much and strikeouts have been an issue. He’s a solid hold in Dynas…
TS	Henry Bolte	Oak	OF	—	.276	.308	6	14	97	Henry Bolte (OF, ATH) — Playing every day but the results aren’t overly exciting (though playing a ton of lefties lately has helped).
TS	Jordan Lawlar	Ari	3B/OF	—	.271	.331	2	4	88	Jordan Lawlar (3B/OF, ARI) — Has a home run in back-to-back games on his rehab, but striking out a TON. Sounds like he’ll be back this we…
TS	Kaelen Culpepper	Min	SS	—	.333	.322	2	0	90	Kaelen Culpepper (SS, MIN) — Culpepper is off to a slow start and is sitting every third day or so, but can remain an upside stash if you…
TS	Walker Jenkins	Min	OF	—	—	—	—	—	91	Walker Jenkins (OF, MIN) — Hitting extremely well in August (1.063 OPS), and the collapse of Larnach may give him a chance to break throu…
UR	Franklin Arias	Bos	SS	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	James Wood	Wsh	OF	—	.265	.419	30	17	130	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Ralphy Velazquez	Cle	1B	—	—	—	—	—	85	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.

🔥 Heat Board

Hottest ACTIVE free-agent bats by contact quality, 8/12–8/25 · Heat = percentile vs all MLB bats over the same window (xwOBAcon 30 · EV 20 · Brl 20 · HH 15 · K 10 · BB 5) · min 15 BBE to qualify (smaller samples live in the HM rail) · IL excluded.

Luis Robert Jr.

CF · NYM · 15.5% own · xwOBAcon .617 · EV 94.8 · Brl 30.0% · 20 BBE

▲ .064 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.232	10	23	23	2
L14	.296	4	6	5	0

Mickey Gasper

C · Bos · 4.9% own · xwOBAcon .585 · EV 91.8 · Brl 22.2% · 18 BBE

▲ .140 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.281	5	19	17	0
L14	.421	3	10	4	0

Ryan Vilade

RF · TB · 0.3% own · xwOBAcon .651 · EV 97.5 · Brl 18.8% · 16 BBE

▲ .145 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.264	11	37	25	3
L14	.409	2	2	5	0

Colt Keith

1B · Det · 5.3% own · xwOBAcon .498 · EV 96.2 · Brl 10.0% · 20 BBE

▲ .003 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.266	9	32	46	5
L14	.269	1	1	4	0

Coby Mayo

1B · Bal · 1.7% own · xwOBAcon .555 · EV 91.3 · Brl 20.0% · 20 BBE

▼ .018 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.212	17	48	47	2
L14	.194	2	2	6	0

Randal Grichuk

RF · ChW · 0.4% own · xwOBAcon .433 · EV 91.5 · Brl 29.4% · 17 BBE

▲ .169 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.281	11	32	32	0
L14	.450	2	7	5	0

Xander Bogaerts

SS · SD · 18.7% own · xwOBAcon .366 · EV 94.7 · Brl 13.8% · 29 BBE

▼ .037 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.219	11	47	50	17
L14	.182	2	6	4	1

Esmerlyn Valdez

RF · Pit · 18.4% own · xwOBAcon .490 · EV 93.5 · Brl 13.6% · 22 BBE

▲ .019 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.249	15	42	36	0
L14	.268	1	4	8	0

Lars Nootbaar

LF · Ari · 2.5% own · xwOBAcon .423 · EV 90.6 · Brl 15.0% · 20 BBE

▲ .000 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.217	4	21	26	2
L14	.217	1	4	1	1

Ben Malgeri

CF · Det · 0.1% own · xwOBAcon .457 · EV 93.1 · Brl 13.3% · 15 BBE

▼ .051 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.242	3	11	9	1
L14	.191	2	4	2	1

Honorable mention · hottest L7 (8/19–8/25), not yet on the board · tiny samples — peek, don't trust

Hao-Yu Lee

3B · Det

.486 xwOBAcon

14 BBE · .294 L7

Patrick Bailey

C · Cle

.593 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .417 L7

Drew Gilbert

RF · SF

.588 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .235 L7

Michael Conforto

LF · ChC

.667 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .400 L7

Elias Diaz

C · Tex

.391 xwOBAcon

11 BBE · .250 L7

Tristan Peters

CF · ChW

.439 xwOBAcon

14 BBE · .211 L7

🎯 FA Pitchers — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Sandy Alcantara

1Dylan SmithRP · SF · 0.6%BEST VALUE

Closer role confirmed, +1.5 sim delta leads all candidates, protects SV rank-3 cushion.

Supp 49 · 9 BBE · ATC 13.0 IP · 1 W · 12 K · 3.97 · 1.33 · 4 SV · Closer · sim +1.5 pts

2Andrew Kittredge

RP · Bal · 1.6% · CATEGORY FIT

Confirmed closer, +1.2 sim, 81/99 suppression at 15 BBE threshold — saves with clean ratios.

Supp 81 · 15 BBE · ATC 12.0 IP · 1 W · 11 K · 3.87 · 1.21 · 2 SV · Closer · sim +1.2 pts

3Calvin Faucher

RP · Mia · 0.7% · CATEGORY FIT

Confirmed closer, +1.0 sim, elite 0.173 xwOBAcon-allowed signals saves plus ratio safety.

Supp 81 · 13 BBE · ATC 12.0 IP · 1 W · 12 K · 3.96 · 1.39 · 1 SV · Closer · sim +1.0 pts

4Clay Holmes

SP · ChC · 29.6% · HEATER

89/99 suppression on trusted 38-BBE sample; 3.78 ATC ERA protects ratio leads with GS volume.

Supp 89 · 38 BBE · ATC 31.0 IP · 2 W · 26 K · 3.78 · 1.33 · sim +0.0 pts

5Max Scherzer

SP · Tor · 2.8% · HEATER

94/99 suppression on 31 BBE — elite contact suppression; limited IP caps ratio bleed risk.

Supp 94 · 31 BBE · ATC 24.0 IP · 1 W · 23 K · 4.77 · 1.27 · sim +0.0 pts

Passed on: Kevin Ginkel has a confirmed closer role and +1.0 sim but only 12 BBE for suppression read and lowest SV projection of the closer trio, making him the marginal cut.

⚾ Pitcher List Rankings

PL Top 100 SP · your arms + top FAs.

On Pitcher List · 6 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Pitcher	MLB	Chg	ERA	xERA	K/9	RoS	Pollack’s Take
1	Jacob Misiorowski	MIL	-	1.68	1.99	13.4	3.32	Like a base set Charizard, Misiorowski’s not gonna stop being dope.
9	Blake Snell	LAD	+7	2.57	2.30	11.1	3.42	#HotSnellSummer is in full swing.
10	Dylan Cease	TOR	-1	2.37	2.68	13.0	3.45	Like a perfect burger without the condiments to hit all your macros, Cease gives you everything except for a stable WHIP due to his infla…
20	Kyle Harrison	MIL	+8	2.79	3.15	11.1	4.12	With a dominant outing, he muted our concerns, but Harrison’s still displaying decreased velocity and not commanding as well as he did in…
22	Eury Pérez	MIA	-4	3.17	3.67	9.7	3.87	Pérez has the stuff to be an ace, but there’s polishing to do in the command and game plan departments to unlock his full potential.
30	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	-4	3.38	3.65	6.7	4.19	Baseball’s premier innings eater hasn’t ruined his appetite.
38	Jacob Lopez	ATH	+6	4.98	3.36	8.6	4.63	It’s the 2025 hot streak all over again. Enjoy the ride, ya’ll!
39	Dustin May	MIL	-	4.57	4.20	8.6	4.09	May got Singled Out in a disastrous performance, but his stuff is still dope, and his new situation is ideal. Higher win chance, great de…
43	Andrew Painter	PHI	+UR	6.04	4.81	7.7	4.78	From off The List to inside the Top 50, Painter has stolen our hearts with an improved heater (97+ mph with 17-18″ iVB) and emphasis on r…
45	Peter Lambert	HOU	-4	3.68	3.44	8.8	4.58	Lambert’s stumble last time was a product of being Singled Out . He’s been reliable all year, but we should be recognizing that Holly is …
46	Jared Jones	PIT	-8	4.76	3.67	10.2	3.99	The stuff is top-tier, but he’s still shaking off the Tommy John surgery rust with his command and the tight leash the Pirates have on hi…
54	Joey Cantillo	CLE	-8	3.73	3.89	9.9	4.05	Efficiency is a problem, but Cantillo is doing everything we want. More curveballs, faster fastballs, and supportive cutters. Throw more …
56	Shane Bieber	TOR	+14	4.37	5.94	7.1	4.19	Bieber is back in business. His heater looked awesome in The Trop, and his offspeed pitches are being the CSW monsters they need to be to…
57	Tyler Mahle	ATL	-	4.41	4.29	8.5	4.10	Mahle’s command and velocity have been stellar since returning from the IL in late June. He’s got an even better situation pitching in At…
58	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	-	3.51	3.57	6.2	4.60	Despite what the line suggests, Pfaadt’s last start wasn’t an end to his Vargas Rule . It was a textbook Careful, Icarus with a three-run…
59	Christian Scott	NYM	+1	3.73	3.97	11.2	3.94	Scott has been happy to show us his floor, but the stuff is still there to propel him up The List at a moment’s notice. It’s felt a littl…

🔒 Closer Chart

Save targets · roles + regression flags.

🚨 Closer Tier Changes (vs. yesterday)

COLOR SHIFT Boston Red Sox: Aroldis Chapman → Aroldis Chapman (magenta → ) rostered
ROLE CHANGE Miami Marlins: Pete Fairbanks → Calvin Faucher (yellow → ) FA — ADD
COLOR SHIFT Tampa Bay Rays: Bryan Baker → Bryan Baker (magenta → ) rostered

BLUEEntrenched closer (highest leverage)GREENNext man up / committee pieceYELLOWSetup, 8th-inning leverageORANGESpeculative / lower priorityMAGENTAHigh-upside future / multi-inning

	Pitcher	Tm	Role	SV	SVHD	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K/9	Rtg / Own
Yours on the chart
—	Andrés Muñoz	Seattle Mariners	CL	24	24	48.3	4.28	1.22	3.29	14.3	5.0 · —
—	Louis Varland	Toronto Blue Jays	CL	29	34	66.3	1.22	0.98	2.24 ↑	11.1	5.0 · —
—	Justin Martinez	Arizona Diamondbacks	FU	0	0	3.0	0.00	1.00	5.53 ↑	6.0	1.0 · —
Top 5 FA closers (by team rating)
—	Calvin Faucher	Miami Marlins	CL	2	16	56.3	3.99	1.37	3.78	10.1	4.0 · 1%
—	Dylan Smith	San Francisco Giants	CL	3	10	28.3	2.86	1.24	3.59	11.4	4.0 · 1%
	Andrew Kittredge	Baltimore Orioles	CL	6	15	39.3	3.43	1.35	3.86	7.6	3.0 · 2%
	Kevin Ginkel	Arizona Diamondbacks	CL	2	13	55.0	3.76	1.11	3.72	8.7	1.0 · 1%

ERA cell: green <3.00 · red >4.50. xERA arrow: ↓ ERA likely to fall (buy) · ↑ ERA likely to rise (sell). Triggers when |xERA−ERA| ≥ 1.00.

✂️ Cut List

Drop priority · value, form, pedigree, role.

51	Justin Martinez RP · Ari low TV (0); UFDA — easy to drop; BUT strong RoS (3.46 ERA) sim −0.56% win if cut	TV 0 UFDA
47	Royce Lewis 3B · Min low TV (18) sim +0.11% win if cut	TV 18 Rd 13
12	Ryan Jeffers C · Min UFDA — easy to drop sim +0.09% win if cut	TV 100 UFDA
11	Kyle Harrison SP · Mil mid TV (60); UFDA — easy to drop; BUT top-tier keeper sim −0.11% win if cut	TV 60 UFDA
11	Sandy Alcantara SP · Mia BUT solid keeper sim cost ~0	TV 72 Rd 14

Higher score = drop sooner — top 5 by score, and only 8+ reaches the board, so the number has no ceiling and is only comparable within this list. The sim line is a roto-sim marginal (cut vs. keep on one shared set of draws), not a measured cost. Pedigree + named closers shielded.

🌱 Stash List

PL's top prospects · grab them cheap.

Hitters

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 22: Top 10 Hitting Prospects to Stash

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + PSS + PFV + age + 40-man + path.

24 available — 3 yours

W. Jenkins YOURS

OF · MIN · AAA · 21 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

13·16·.320

F. Arias YOURS

SS · BOS · AAA · 20 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

23·6·.314

R. Velazquez YOURS

1B/C · CLE · AA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

27·2·.293

S. Thompson

OF · COL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

12·15·.303

L. Montes

OF · SEA · AAA · 21 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

37·6·.250

J. Tibbs III

OF · LAD · AAA · 23 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

27·7·.300

M. Anderson

2B · DET · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

15·5·.307

Y. Morales

3B · WSN · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

24·5·.289

S. King

SS/2B/3B · WSN · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

18·14·.327

J. Melton

OF · TB · AAA · 25 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

7·26·.307

B. Davidson

OF · SFG · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

September

Szn

25·19·.283

R. Ward

LF · LAD · AAA · 28 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

20·7·.256

C. Ingle

C · CLE · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

18·2·.289

C. Cannarella

OF · MIA · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

13·19·.332

H. Mendez

OF · MIN · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

12·4·.279

J. Long

1B · CHC · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

13·3·.280

K. Alderman

OF · MIA · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

18·10·.262

E. Arroyo

SS · CIN · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

15·14·.290

E. Salas

C · SDP · AAA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September

Szn

10·15·.290

J. Made

SS · MIL · AA · 19 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

13·33·.273

P. Harber

3B · SFG · AAA · 24 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

'27

Szn

17·4·.294

Z. Hope

OF · DET · AA · 21 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

blocked

Szn

26·22·.275

M. Arroyo

SS · SEA · AAA · 21 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

17·16·.281

D. Crisantes

2B/3B · ARI · AAA · 21 · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

8·0·.289

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

Pitchers

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 22: Top 10 Pitching Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + L3 quality + FV + age + 40-man + path.

27 available

H. Smith

SP · CHW · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

August 1st

Szn

101K·3.84

C. Seymour

SP · SFG · AAA · 27 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

84K·4.05

R. Snelling

SP · MIA · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

46K·2.38

E. Rodriguez

SP · NYY · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

109K·2.91

J. Tong

SP · NYM · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

125K·4.75

T. Johnson

SP · TBR · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

80K·2.90

A. Kelly

SP · PIT · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

70K·4.21

C. Crow

SP · MIL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

89K·3.55

T. Bremner

SP · LAA · AA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

'26

Szn

84K·4.26

M. Bratt

SP · ARI · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

79K·3.33

J. Ritchie

SP · ATL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

114K·3.83

M. Forret

SP · BAL · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

115K·3.85

T. McDougal

SP · CHW · AAA · 23 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

47K·4.43

B. Garrett

SP · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

June 1st

Szn

101K·3.68

D. Davalillo

SP · TEX · AAA · 24 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

90K·4.61

R. Sloan

SP · SEA · AA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

100

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

111K·3.63

B. Mautz

SP · STL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

91K·3.86

G. Wood

P · PHI · AA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

'26

Szn

117K·4.11

M. Ullola

SP · HOU · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

94K·4.41

O. Murphy

SP · ATL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

119K·3.95

J. Wenninger

SP · NYM · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

104K·4.17

L. Perales

SP · WSN · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

97K·3.64

B. Hopkins

SP · TBR · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

111K·5.52

M. Wilkinson

SP · SFG · AAA · 23 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

98K·3.57

T. Gibson

SP · BAL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

94K·5.15

K. Curtis

SP · PIT · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

109K·4.65

L. Braun

SP · ATL · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

101K·3.72

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

🔭 11 not a 2026 factor — Joseph Dzierwa · Liam Doyle · Anthony Eyanson · Christian Zazueta · Jamie Arnold · Nestor German · Tyson Hardin · Jurrangelo Cijntje · Jaxon Wiggins · Jonathan Santucci · Karson Milbrandt

💼 Trades

Buy-low targets · league trade history.

Top Buy-Lows

Rebound candidates · suggested offers.

Hitters

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Trent Grisham CF · NYY · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.2σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.221 / xBA 0.249 · xwOBA 0.343	32%	115 wRC+	≈ 0.1%	Franklin Arias SS + Royce Lewis 3B + +$5 FAAB · two-piece package (TV 27 vs target 37)
📈 BUY-LOW	Ronald Acuna Jr. RF · Atl · GoOs · My Best Guys +1.2σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.232 / xBA 0.251 · xwOBA 0.360	98%	135 wRC+	≈ 0.2%	Blake Snell SP + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 79 vs target 86)
📈 BUY-LOW	JJ Bleday CF · Cin · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.2σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.220 / xBA 0.241 · xwOBA 0.347	25%	102 wRC+	≈ 0.1%	Franklin Arias SS + Royce Lewis 3B · two-piece package (TV 27 vs target 27)
📈 BUY-LOW	Heriberto Hernandez LF · Mia · FRAN · francisw789 +1.1σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.232 / xBA 0.248 · xwOBA 0.349	3%	98 wRC+	≈ 0.1%	Royce Lewis 3B · comparable value (TV 18 vs target 23)
↑ mild buy	Taylor Ward LF · Sea · GoOs · My Best Guys +0.5σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.235 / xBA 0.244 · xwOBA 0.338	62%	118 wRC+	≈ 0.2%	Zach Neto SS · comparable value (TV 60 vs target 60)
↑ mild buy	Brandon Nimmo LF · Tex · DORN · Lambertmt48 +0.6σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.260 / xBA 0.281 · xwOBA 0.357	68%	118 wRC+	≈ 0.1%	Walker Jenkins CF + Zach Neto SS · two-piece package (TV 61 vs target 45)
↑ mild buy	Kyle Stowers LF · Mia · KNIG · TKHOO +0.7σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.242 / xBA 0.235 · xwOBA 0.330	28%	110 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Franklin Arias SS + Royce Lewis 3B · two-piece package (TV 27 vs target 27)
↑ mild buy	Dominic Canzone RF · Sea · GARR · jregarris +0.5σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.256 / xBA 0.267 · xwOBA 0.352	12%	114 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Franklin Arias SS + Royce Lewis 3B + +$3 FAAB · two-piece package (TV 27 vs target 33)
↑ mild buy	Jo Adell CF · Cle · KNIG · TKHOO +0.6σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.242 / xBA 0.261 · xwOBA 0.333	39%	106 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Franklin Arias SS + Royce Lewis 3B · two-piece package (TV 27 vs target 27)
↑ mild buy	Ian Happ LF · ChC · FRAN · francisw789 +0.7σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.220 / xBA 0.204 · xwOBA 0.314	74%	107 wRC+	↓ 0.8%	Walker Jenkins CF + Zach Neto SS · two-piece package (TV 61 vs target 56)

Pitchers

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Kodai Senga SP · NYM · KRTZ · FratSkins +1.6σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 7.79 vs xERA 4.98	10%	3.96 ERA	≈ 0.1%	Franklin Arias SS · comparable value (TV 9 vs target 14)
↑ mild buy	Freddy Peralta SP · TB · KNIG · TKHOO +0.8σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 5.33 vs xERA 4.11	68%	4.01 ERA	≈ 0.1%	Franklin Arias SS + Royce Lewis 3B + +$16 FAAB · two-piece package (TV 27 vs target 42)
↑ mild buy	Landen Roupp SP · SF · FRST · prestonc51684 +0.6σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.34 vs xERA 3.75	21%	3.98 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Royce Lewis 3B · comparable value (TV 18 vs target 19)
↑ mild buy	Bryce Miller SP · Sea · BLOB · crenshawh19 +0.6σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.12 vs xERA 3.17	37%	4.10 ERA	≈ 0.2%	Walker Jenkins CF + Zach Neto SS · two-piece package (TV 61 vs target 48)

League History

Completed trades · frozen grade at the deal + live grade now.

Side	Sent	At deal	Now	Trend
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Andy Pages	A- +7	A+ +44	▲ up
Camp MVP	Pete Crow-Armstrong	C -7	F -44	▼ down
Team Knighton ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Team Knighton	Matthew Boyd	F -22	F -22
Camp MVP	Kenley Jansen	A+ +22	A+ +22
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Worst2First 2026-08-10
Miz-waukee’s Best	Charlie Condon, Payton Tolle	A+ +50	A+ +35	▼ down
Worst2First	Dylan Cease	F -50	F -35	▲ up
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Dorn and Associates LLC 2026-08-05
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Travis Bazzana, George Lombard Jr., Nolan McLean	A+ +144	A+ +106	▼ down
Dorn and Associates LLC	Jackson Chourio, Jhoan Duran, Brice Turang, David Bednar	F -144	F -106	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-07-31
Miz-waukee’s Best	Samuel Basallo, Kade Anderson	A- +8	A- +7
Ramirez Against the Machine	Blake Snell	C -8	C -7
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Team Knighton 2026-07-23
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Jo Adell, Jacob deGrom	F -49	F -63	▼ down
Team Knighton	Trea Turner	A+ +49	A+ +63	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine ⇄ Miz-waukee’s Best 2026-07-19
Ramirez Against the Machine	Sandy Alcantara	F -42	F -68	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best	Josh Jung	A+ +42	A+ +68	▲ up
I need Buck Showalter ⇄ Hit the Damn Ball You Bums 2026-06-19
I need Buck Showalter	Nasim Nunez	A+ +28	B +1	▼ down
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Justin Wrobleski	F -28	B -1	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ The Boys of Summer 2026-06-12
Miz-waukee’s Best	Chandler Simpson	A +10	A- +7	▼ down
The Boys of Summer	$30 FAAB	D -10	C -7	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-05-01
Miz-waukee’s Best	Kenley Jansen	—	A- +7
Camp MVP	$30 FAAB	A- +3	C -7	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-04-22
Miz-waukee’s Best	Nathan Eovaldi, $70 FAAB	—	F -40
Ramirez Against the Machine	Jac Caglianone	A+ +60	A+ +40	▼ down

🔻 Sell-High — My Roster

Surface line outrunning the underlying skill — trade-value peaks. σ = his surface-stat z-score minus his Statcast-skill z-score, both against the league reference for his side — bigger σ = further ahead of the skill. Pair with Buy-Low Targets.

Verdict	Player	Own	Surface vs expected	Contact	2027 keeper
↓ SHOP	Henry Bolte RF · Oak 0.72σ sell-high · RF · BA 0.276 / xBA 0.243 · xwOBA 0.308 — test the market, don't force it	4%	BA 0.276 / xBA 0.243 +.033 wOBA 0.327 / xwOBA 0.308 +.019	HH 47.6% · Brl/PA 4.5%	25th · +2 rds vs mkt
↓ SHOP	Yandy Diaz 1B · TB 0.64σ sell-high · 1B · BA 0.305 / xBA 0.289 · xwOBA 0.356 — test the market, don't force it	93%	BA 0.305 / xBA 0.289 +.016 wOBA 0.365 / xwOBA 0.356 +.009	HH 47.4% · Brl/PA 5.2%	7th · +1 rd vs mkt
HOLD — KEEPER PRICE	Louis Varland RP · Tor 0.46σ sell-high · RP · ERA 1.22 vs xERA 2.24 — only move for keeper-grade return	86%	ERA 1.22 / xERA 2.24 -1.02	Brl 4.4% allowed	22nd · +16 rds vs mkt

👥 Your Roster

Your roster · news + buy/sell signals.

News (last 24h)

Player news · last 24h.

No news on your roster in the last 24 hours.

Leverage Buys/Sells

Buy/sell windows · surface vs. underlying.

Hitters

Player	Pos	MLB	BA	xBA	wOBA	xwOBA	Brl%	Own%	Signal
James Wood IL10	LF	Wsh	0.265	0.275	0.395	0.419	100.0	99.1	📈 BUY-LOW
Miguel Vargas	3B	ChW	0.248	0.266	0.368	0.389	94.0	95.1	📈 BUY-LOW
Kyle Schwarber	DH	Phi	0.241	0.239	0.379	0.368	98.0	99.6	📈 BUY-LOW
Bryce Eldridge BRV	1B	SF	0.252	0.251	0.343	0.352	76.0	8.2	↑ mild buy
Jac Caglianone DTD	RF	KC	0.276	0.280	0.353	0.361	92.0	54.9	fair
Zach Neto	SS	LAA	0.236	0.208	0.328	0.304	76.0	60.4	fair
Randy Arozarena	LF	Sea	0.272	0.262	0.368	0.350	52.0	93.7	fair
Yandy Diaz	1B	TB	0.303	0.289	0.365	0.356	42.0	92.7	↓ mild fade
Cole Carrigg	CF	Col	0.268	0.255	0.351	0.323	—	14.3	fair
Walker Jenkins	CF	Min	—	—	—	—	—	2.0	—
Ryan Jeffers	C	Min	0.277	0.255	0.380	0.359	—	42.5	fair
Henry Bolte	RF	Oak	0.276	0.243	0.327	0.308	45.0	4.5	↓ mild fade
Kaelen Culpepper	SS	Min	0.333	0.269	0.376	0.322	—	3.8	fair
Royce Lewis	3B	Min	0.236	0.243	0.310	0.317	76.0	18.3	↑ mild buy
Jordan Lawlar DTD	3B	Ari	0.271	0.276	0.343	0.331	—	3.1	fair
Franklin Arias	SS	Bos	—	—	—	—	—	1.4	—
Ralphy Velazquez	1B	Cle	—	—	—	—	—	0.7	—

Pitchers

Pitcher	Pos	MLB	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K-BB%	xwOBA-a	Brl%-a	Own%	Signal
Blake Snell	SP	LAD	21.0	2.57	1.05	2.30	19.5	0.236	0.0	87.9	↑ mild buy
Andres Munoz	RP	Sea	48.3	4.28	1.22	3.29	27.9	0.282	9.5	80.1	↑ mild buy
Joe Ryan IL15	SP	Min	125.7	4.08	1.15	3.49	21.2	0.290	10.5	90.2	fair
Jacob Misiorowski	SP	Mil	145.0	1.68	0.76	1.99	33.3	0.219	3.8	99.6	fair
Dylan Cease	SP	Tor	144.3	2.37	1.06	2.68	25.0	0.255	4.6	99.3	fair
Sandy Alcantara	SP	Mia	183.7	3.38	1.18	3.65	11.6	0.296	5.3	91.2	fair
Kyle Harrison	SP	Mil	103.3	2.79	1.12	3.15	23.6	0.276	6.8	79.1	fair
Eury Perez	SP	Mia	127.7	3.17	1.11	3.67	16.5	0.297	9.1	82.1	fair
Louis Varland	RP	Tor	66.3	1.22	0.98	2.24	24.8	0.233	4.4	86.2	↓ mild fade
Justin Martinez	RP	Ari	3.0	0.00	1.00	5.53	0.0	0.357	0.0	1.6	—

📰 MLB News — Top Fantasy Stories

🔒 Keepers — 2027 Slate

Peter's model (additive): rounds-saved (cost arbitrage spine) + current skill + career-grade pedigree + sample stability + Statcast over/under-performance trend, with age-decline (33+), closer/RP, and top-30 talent adjustments. Heavy on bargain-hunting.
Claude's model (multiplicative dynasty index): EFV(2027) = (3 + skill + upside) × age_mult × pos_mult; score = EFV − cost_replacement − mookie-lock. Compounds age curve and position scarcity.
Sorted by consensus rank (average of both models). MLB-inactive players surfaced in 🚑 Return Watch below.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict	Notes
1.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	21st	#1 (+24.4)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51	UFDA-G FV 55
2.0	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	25th	#2 (+21.5)	#2 (+17.1)	A · $17	UFDA
3.0	Jac Caglianone	RF · 22yo	21st	#3 (+19.5)	#3 (+15.9)	A · $16	UFDA-G FV 55
4.0	Kyle Harrison	SP · 24yo	25th	#4 (+18.2)	#4 (+15.8)	A · $16	UFDA
5.0	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	22nd	#5 (+17.2)	#5 (+15.6)	A · $16
6.0	Eury Perez	SP · 23yo	20th	#6 (+16.6)	#6 (+13.9)	A · $14	UFDA-G
7.0	Bryce Eldridge	1B · 20yo	25th	#7 (+16.0)	#7 (+13.7)	A · $14	UFDA FV 55
8.0	Dylan Cease	SP · 30yo	4th	#8 (+11.9)	#8 (+11.7)	A · $12

NEW UFDA cap: Peter 3/3 · Claude 3/3 · BOTH = top 8 in both models. Peter only = his model values cost surplus more; Claude only = mine values projection / position scarcity more.

🚑 Return watch — would be keeper-eligible if they get MLB action this year. Rank shown is hypothetical (where they'd slot if eligible).

Player	Pos · Age	Cost	Peter (if elig.)	Claude (if elig.)
Walker Jenkins	CF · 20yo	25th	#15 (-2.0)	#14 (+1.4)
Franklin Arias	SS · 19yo	25th	#15 (-2.0)	#13 (+3.0)
Ralphy Velazquez	1B · 19yo	25th	#15 (-2.0)	#14 (+1.4)

Updated Wed Aug 26 · 4:23 AM ET

🌍 League-Wide Top Keepers

Top 10 keepers · all 12 teams · both models. Yours in green.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	Team	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict
1.5	Jordan Walker	RF · 24yo	GARR	25th	#1 (+28.5)	#2 (+47.4)	S · $47
3.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	MIZ	21st	#5 (+24.4)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51
3.5	Jesus Luzardo	SP · 28yo	KNIG	21st	#2 (+27.7)	#5 (+33.4)	S · $33
3.5	Bryan Baker	RP · 31yo	DORN	25th	#3 (+25.2)	#4 (+38.7)	S · $39
5.0	Carson Benge	CF · 22yo	KRTZ	25th	#4 (+24.6)	#6 (+29.9)	S · $30
7.0	Jake McCarthy	LF · 28yo	FRAN	25th	#7 (+22.7)	#7 (+29.9)	S · $30
7.0	Cam Schlittler	SP · 24yo	KRTZ	19th	— (+19.5)	#3 (+40.8)	S · $41
8.5	Payton Tolle	SP · 22yo	FRST	25th	#6 (+23.0)	— (+19.8)	S · $20
9.5	Jose Soriano	SP · 27yo	BLOB	25th	#8 (+22.5)	— (+19.8)	S · $20
9.5	Wilyer Abreu	RF · 27yo	KNIG	15th	— (+18.5)	#8 (+28.5)	S · $28
10.0	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	MIZ	25th	#9 (+21.5)	— (+17.1)	A · $17
10.0	Cristopher Sanchez	SP · 29yo	PEYT	9th	— (+18.2)	#9 (+26.9)	S · $27
10.5	Foster Griffin	SP · 30yo	GoOs	25th	#10 (+20.8)	— (+21.2)	S · $21
10.5	Nolan McLean	SP · 23yo	DORN	20th	— (+20.4)	#10 (+24.0)	S · $24

Updated Wed Aug 26 · 4:23 AM ET

🏚️ Keeper Cupboards

Every team's six best keepers · shade = dual-model consensus value. Cupboard score weights the top four heavily (the slots that get kept), keepers 5–8 taper. 100 = league's best cupboard.

Team	K1	K2	K3	K4	K5	K6	Cupboard
1MIZ	MisiorowskiR21	VargasR25	CaglianoneR21	HarrisonR25	VarlandR22	PerezR20	100
2DORN	BakerR25	McLeanR20	RiceR20	PerdomoR21	BazzanaR25	WarrenR25	86
3KRTZ	BengeR25	SchlittlerR19	BurkeR25	McGonigleR17	IIR5	StewartR10	85
4FRAN	McCarthyR25	CavalliR21	LatzR25	BurnsR5	AntonacciR25	BradishR21	84
5KNIG	LuzardoR21	AbreuR15	deGromR13	MartinezR25	RodriguezR25	AdellR8	83
6GARR	WalkerR25	MessickR18	DinglerR22	GrayR7	CanzoneR25	SimpsonR9	77
7GoOs	GriffinR25	BradleyR25	RafaelaR8	ReynoldsR10	DubonR25	BurlesonR9	68
8BLOB	SorianoR25	LopezR20	LileR15	ScottR25	SuarezR12	BurgerR19	65
9FRST	TolleR25	RouppR25	WheelerR8	BuxtonR7	ElderR25	SkubalR1	61
10RAGE	LeeR21	EwingR25	CamineroR5	BledayR25	HerreraR20	BibeeR14	59
11THAR ▼ thin	RasmussenR8	O'BrienR17	BauersR25	WilliamsR11	KeaschallR21	GonzalesR25	57
12PEYT ▼ thin	SanchezR9	WooR8	HendersonR25	ArenadoR25	CameronR18	NolaR16	51

The bottom two rows are your trade marks — thin cupboards pay up for keepable pieces.

data: snap 0h · BP 18h · PL 20h · HL 11d · PSS 0h · BR 0h · FG 23h · proj 24h · closer 0h · oyster 17h · AAA-sc 6h · cookie ok