Miz-waukee’s Best — The Brandon League

Last updated Tuesday, August 25 · 09:05 AM ET

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☕ Morning Briefing

🏆 MIZ holds 1st with 105.5 roto points, a comfortable 21.5-point cushion over 2nd — but two micro-categories deserve attention: Wins is dead-level with GoOs (one swing costs you a point), and your AVG trails GoOs by just .001 (one point up for grabs if you close it).

⚾ Your guys delivered yesterday: Sandy Alcantara was excellent, going 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 K against Boston, and on the position side Kaelen Culpepper (MLB Pipeline #34, RI 86) went 4-for-5 with an RBI vs. the Athletics, while Henry Bolte contributed 3 runs scored on a 3-for-4 day with a walk against Minnesota — three contributors hitting on the same night is exactly how you pad a lead.

📋 One lineup flag before you lock in: Kyle Harrison is your probable today — confirm he's active. On the waiver wire, Willy Adames landed on the IL with a left elbow sprain (owned by GoOs), which is a meaningful blow to a direct standings rival across multiple categories. The SF Giants recalled several players to cover their injuries, including Shay Whitcomb and Grant McCray [both available (FA)], though neither moves the needle in a 5x5 context. The Pittsburgh closer situation is worth a second glance — Mason Montgomery (owned by FRAN) still holds the job, but role-security confidence has visibly slipped; monitor.

📰 Pete Fairbanks exited Monday's game with nerve irritation and is day-to-day, with Calvin Faucher reportedly next in line for saves — relevant if you're thin on saves or targeting the Rays' closer situation. Separately, Bryce Eldridge (your roster) was placed on the bereavement list, worth knowing for roster management. Ezequiel Tovar left Monday with a wrist injury and is being reevaluated today — if you're facing opponents who own him, that's a live hole at shortstop.

ELIGIBILITYC. Carrigg SS 9/10K. Schwarber 1B 6/10

Your standing

1stof 12

105.5 roto pts +21.5 clear of 2nd

no change vs last update

Top Gaps

SB (7.0) W (7.5)

categories below mid-pack

🎯 Category Pressure

Category ranks vs. the league.

Rank →

Δ to #1

885

962

🥇

256

280

🥇

RBI

830

843

🥇

123

128

134

182

+54

AVG

.254

.256

.257

+0.001

1112

1136

1215

+79

+12

+13

ERA

3.47

3.18

🥇

WHIP

1.18

1.11

🥇

📅 Yesterday's MIZ Box Scores (2026-08-24)

Loading box scores…

🏥 IL Rehab Tracker

IL players · rehab game logs.

On the IL, no rehab games yet: James Wood (IL10), Joe Ryan (IL15), Spencer Schwellenbach (IL60 · watch).

📊 League Activity (last 24h)

All adds, drops, and trades across the 12 teams.

Team	Move
Miz-waukee’s Best	− Felix Bautista
Phil Swift's Flex Seal	+ Matthew Liberatore \| − Cam Smith
Phil Swift's Flex Seal	+ Aaron Nola \| − Ryan Weathers
Phil Swift's Flex Seal	+ Andrew Alvarez \| − Jake Bennett
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	+ George Klassen \| − Cal Quantrill
Team Knighton	+ Ozzie Albies \| − Tyler Rogers

🏆 League Standings

Current roto points · 10,000-sim projected finish. FAAB = acquisition budget remaining.

99.0% to win the league · proj finish 1.0 · 101.1 roto pts

#	Team	Pts	FAAB	Win%	Proj Pts	Range	Proj Rk
1	MIZ Miz-waukee’s Best	105.5	$0	99.0%	101.1	96–106	1.0
2	FRAN Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	84.0	$74	1.0%	88.4	82–95	2.1
3	KRTZ Photogenic Nick Kurtz	77.0	$30	0.0%	78.5	71–86	3.6
4	PEYT Phil Swift's Flex Seal	75.0	$35	0.0%	79.4	72–87	3.4
5	GoOs I need Buck Showalter	72.5	$170	0.0%	71.3	64–77	5.0
6	BLOB Camp MVP	65.5	$168	0.0%	68.0	62–73	5.7
7	THAR Phil Mickeltits	63.0	$176	0.0%	58.1	52–64	7.4
8	KNIG Team Knighton	56.0	$137	0.0%	56.1	50–62	7.9
9	GARR The Boys of Summer	53.5	$155	0.0%	53.2	47–60	8.5
10	RAGE Ramirez Against the Machine	43.5	$163	0.0%	38.4	34–43	11.7
11	DORN Dorn and Associates LLC	43.0	$89	0.0%	41.9	37–47	10.9
12	FRST Worst2First	41.5	$154	0.0%	45.4	40–51	10.1

10,000 sims · fixed seed · noise CV talent 0.12 / idio 0.06 / team-cat 0.08 · assumes ATC rest-of-season rates

Your categories · projected roto points

R 12.0HR 12.0RBI 11.1SB 7.1AVG 8.6W 6.6SV 9.1K 10.6ERA 12.0WHIP 12.0

Winnable — push here: SB, AVG, W, SV.

🚨 Today's Streaming Board

146 of 200 GS · should be 164 · 18 behindBehind pace — stream aggressively

054 left · ~11.5/wk to cap · proj 178200

⏳ BP's post is late — Verdict pill is running on our score + Pitcher List for now (BP joins the top-2 once it posts).

Your starters + top FA streamers

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Kyle Harrison	@ NYM	AUTO START	—	6.9	#4	Velocity down but command improved; auto-start holds.
Walbert Urena	vs CLE	START	—	5.6	#6	Changeup plays well against LHB-heavy lineup.
Brandon Pfaadt	vs CHC	START	—	5.2	#8	Start him; ignore the fluky final-pitch HR.
Adrian Houser	vs CIN	DART	—	5.4	#10	Elite velo plus favorable home park.
Clay Holmes	@ AZ	DART	—	5.5	#11	Ground-ball profile fits; low K, elevated WHIP risk.
Anthony Kay	vs TEX	DART	—	4.4	#15	Improved command, wide arsenal, soft matchup.
Zac Thornton	vs MIL	SIT	—	3.9	#20	QS-league asset only; avoid in standard formats.
Jackson Jobe	vs TB	SIT	—	1.8	#12	Weak secondaries offset by better-than-expected fastball command.
Ethan Pecko	@ NYY	SIT	—	5.4	#29	Sub-four-inning debut, unimpressive stuff.
Brady Singer	@ SF	SIT	—	3.3	#21	Volatile arm; park the only saving grace.
Max Scherzer	vs KC	SIT	—	3.5	#23	Insufficient results to justify fantasy deployment.

Your staff: 3.18 ERA / 1.11 WHIP · GS 146/200 — Behind pace — stream aggressively. Verdict = the best 2 of BP · our score · Pitcher List, averaged (low outlier dropped); before BP posts it's our score + PL. ⚠ = our matchup score dissented — eyeball that one. Tap a MIZ score for the reasoning.

Tomorrow · top 5 FA · Wed 8/26 · BP not out yet, so pill = our score + Pitcher List

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Joey Cantillo	@ LAA	DART	—	5.3	—	soft LAA lineup, short leash, strong skills
Bubba Chandler	@ SD	DART	—	5.2	—	average SD lineup, hot recent form
Peter Lambert	@ NYY	DART	—	5.1	—	average NYY lineup, shaky recent form, short leash
Ryan Gusto	vs BOS	DART	—	5.1	—	average BOS lineup, hot recent form, friendly park
Grayson Rodriguez	vs CLE	DART	—	4.7	—	soft CLE lineup, weak skills, hot recent form

📼 Streamer Report Card

Does the Streaming Board actually work? Every pick it showed, frozen at pick time and graded off the real box score. Two scoreboards below: first our own calls — the Verdict ladder and MIZ (our matchup score, 0–10) — then the outside lists behind them, BP (RelieverRecon's daily BP Streamers post) and PL (Pitcher List's tier ranking). Grades are recomputed from raw lines on every build — the rubric can change, the history follows.

Last 30d · 408 starts graded over 29 days · GOOD+ 52% · BLOWUP 17% · agg ERA 4.15 · WHIP 1.30 · 4.5 K/start · 435 picks logged, 15 never started, 12 awaiting a box score — not graded

Grade mix · all 408 graded starts

GEM 86 GOOD 127 OK 127 BLOWUP 68

GEM6+ IP, ≤1 ER · or 6+ IP, 8+ K, ≤2 ERGOODquality start (6+ IP, ≤3 ER) · or 5+ IP, ≤2 EROKheld the line without earning GOODBLOWUP5+ ER · or under 4 IP with 4+ ERGOOD+ = GEM + GOOD. A pick whose starter never took the ball grades to nothing and leaves every rate below.

Cohort	n	GOOD+	BLOWUP	ERA
Q1 — Do our own calls work? · Verdict ladder + MIZ bands · live board rows only, nothing backfilled
Verdict · AUTO START	20	70%	10%	3.12
Verdict · START	37	62%	8%	3.30
Verdict · DART	84	50%	15%	4.47
Verdict · SIT	155	48%	21%	4.46
MIZ ≥ 5.0	104	61%	12%	3.57
MIZ 3.5–4.9	103	52%	17%	4.45
MIZ < 3.5	75	40%	24%	5.00
All live board picks	296	52%	17%	4.22
Q1 read — GOOD+ falls 70% · 62% · 50% · 48% down the rungs, but BLOWUP does not rise with it, and MIZ sorts: GOOD+ falls 61% · 52% · 40% from the top band down.
Q2 — Which outside list earns the weight? · BP and PL graded on their own published lists · mostly rebuilt from git
PL · Auto Start	43	70%	12%	3.41
PL · Probably Start	41	68%	17%	3.56
PL · Questionable Start	98	51%	16%	4.50
PL · Do Not Start	200	48%	19%	4.25
BP · Auto	21	38%	14%	4.76
BP · Likely	61	46%	16%	4.28
All graded picks	408	52%	17%	4.15
Q2 read — against the 52% all-picks baseline, PL's top tiers clear it (70% · 68%) and BP's top tiers sit under it (38% · 46%) — PL is earning the weight, BP is not.

Rows are overlapping lenses on the same picks, not a partition — one start can be a PL Auto Start and a Verdict SIT at once, so they never sum to the headline; each group is read against its own baseline row.

⚠ Dissent check — the override is ahead so far — 67% GOOD+ on n=9. Splits are picks the board started over our MIZ sit-call (vs 52% for all live picks).

Calibration — do our numbers mean anything? · full season, 2026-06-29→2026-08-24 · 815 graded picks · MIZ on 282, BP on 227, Verdict on 296

The ladder above asks whether the tiers sort. This asks the harder question: is the number a probability — when the board says 7, do 70% of those starts come back GOOD+? Bins are equal-count and merge until every one clears n=15; the walk-forward rows are scored against a model that only ever saw earlier days.

Score bin	n	mean	GOOD+	95% CI
MIZ score → P(GOOD+) · our matchup score, 0–10 · live rows only · n=282
MIZ 0.5–3.2	59	2.4	41%	29%–53%
MIZ 3.3–3.9	59	3.6	46%	34%–58%
MIZ 4.0–4.8	53	4.4	57%	43%–69%
MIZ 4.9–5.7	58	5.2	55%	42%–67%
MIZ 5.8–8.9	53	6.5	64%	51%–76%
All MIZ-scored picks	282	—	52%	—
BP score → P(GOOD+) · RelieverRecon's published rating · includes git-backfilled rows · n=227
BP 4.6–6.6	47	6.1	34%	22%–48%
BP 6.7–7.4	56	7.1	54%	41%–66%
BP 7.5–7.7	33	7.6	39%	25%–56%
BP 7.8–8.4	47	8.1	47%	33%–61%
BP 8.5–10.0	44	9.1	43%	30%–58%
All BP-scored picks	227	—	44%	—
Verdict tier → P(GOOD+) · the consensus call itself · live rows only
AUTO START	20	—	70%	48%–85%
START	37	—	62%	46%–76%
DART	84	—	50%	40%–60%
SIT	155	—	48%	40%–56%

Out-of-sample	n	value	vs
Walk-forward probability · logistic on MIZ, refit daily on earlier days only · from 2026-08-05 · 19 days
Brier — our probability	218	0.248	lower is better
Brier — flat base rate to date	218	0.257	we win by 0.008
Brier — verdict-tier history	218	0.256	we win by 0.008
Log loss — our probability	218	0.690	lower is better
ECE — our probability	218	0.058	5 equal-count bins
ECE bins · predicted p vs what actually happened
said 32%–48%	44	41%	off by 3%
said 49%–53%	43	40%	off by 11%
said 53%–57%	45	47%	off by 9%
said 57%–61%	42	57%	off by 2%
said 62%–74%	44	61%	off by 4%
Verdict — usable with caveats: ECE 0.058 over n=218 out-of-sample picks (≤0.03 well calibrated · ≤0.07 usable with caveats); edges the flat base rate on Brier (0.248 vs 0.257, a thin margin; log-loss ~coin-flip).

🔥 Today's Hitter Streamers

Top 10 FA bats for today's slate · score = split vs SP hand (35%) + SP softness (35%) + bat quality (15%) + trailing 15 days (10%) + park (5%) · facing an elite arm fades the score hard (feast on weak pitchers).

#	Hitter	Matchup	Why	Legs	Score
1	AUTO STARTJustin Foscue2B · 0% own	@ CWS · Kay LHP	szn .322 xwOBAL15: 0.727 OPS (32 PA)L14 contact -0.2 (.365 xwOBAcon, 22 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)beats 3 of 4 eligible startersKay .337 allowed · soft SP0.97 OPS vs LHP (99 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	80
2	AUTO STARTRyan ViladeRF · 0% own	@ DET · Jobe RHP	szn .322 xwOBAL15: 1.069 OPS (28 PA)L14 contact +6.0 (.651 xwOBAcon, 16 BBE)usually bats 2nd (×1.10)fills OF needbeats 7 of 9 eligible startersshort side vs RHP — 39% of ABJobe .378 allowed · soft SP0.735 OPS vs RHP (76 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	79
3	AUTO STARTAndrew Vaughn1B · 4% own	@ NYM · Thornton LHP	szn .343 xwOBAL15: 0.807 OPS (42 PA)L14 contact -1.4 (.338 xwOBAcon, 28 BBE)usually bats 5thbeats 2 of 3 eligible startersThornton .337 allowed · soft SP1.054 OPS vs LHP (86 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	74
4	AUTO STARTDrew GilbertRF · 0% own	vs CIN · Singer RHP	szn .315 xwOBAL15: 0.879 OPS (43 PA)L14 contact +6.0 (.559 xwOBAcon, 21 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)fills OF needbeats 5 of 6 eligible startersSinger .343 allowed · soft SP0.793 OPS vs RHP (239 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	74
5	AUTO STARTJesus SanchezRF · 2% own	vs KC · Lugo RHP	szn .330 xwOBAusually bats 4th (×1.05)fills OF needbeats 5 of 6 eligible startersLugo .347 allowed · soft SP0.803 OPS vs RHP (220 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	68
6	CONSIDERRafael Flores Jr.1B · 6% own	@ SD · King RHP	szn .350 xwOBAL15: 1.101 OPS (42 PA)L14 contact +6.0 (.515 xwOBAcon, 24 BBE)usually bats 5thbeats 0 of 3 eligible startersshort side vs RHP — 44% of ABKing .321 allowed · avg SP	L15 bat SP L/R park	64
7	STARTEsmerlyn ValdezRF · 19% own	@ SD · King RHP	szn .336 xwOBAL15: 0.772 OPS (50 PA)L14 contact +4.8 (.477 xwOBAcon, 25 BBE)usually bats 2nd (×1.10)fills OF needbeats 3 of 6 eligible startersKing .321 allowed · avg SP0.786 OPS vs RHP (129 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	62
8	AUTO STARTNick Sogard1B · 14% own	@ MIA · TBD	szn .340 xwOBAL15: 0.957 OPS (65 PA)L14 contact -0.1 (.368 xwOBAcon, 40 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)beats 3 of 5 eligible startersSP: TBD	L15 bat SP L/R park	59
9	DEPTHGary SanchezC · 2% own	@ NYM · Thornton LHP	szn .351 xwOBAL15: 0.587 OPS (29 PA)L14 contact -0.9 (.351 xwOBAcon, 16 BBE)usually bats 6th (×0.98)beats 0 of 2 eligible startersThornton .337 allowed · soft SP0.828 OPS vs LHP (83 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	57
10	DEPTHTyler StephensonC · 6% own	@ SF · Houser RHP	szn .338 xwOBAL15: 0.709 OPS (51 PA)L14 contact -2.0 (.326 xwOBAcon, 27 BBE)usually bats 4th (×1.05)beats 0 of 2 eligible startersHouser .341 allowed · soft SP0.77 OPS vs RHP (262 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	57

Tiers vs YOUR lineup tonight — median starter 58, worst Henry Bolte (41). AUTO START = beats the median eligible starter.

TBD starter = neutral SP + split legs until the probable posts (refresh upgrades it). Splits need 30+ AB vs that hand. IL bats are excluded; bats who rarely start against tonight's hand are dropped. Doubleheaders: legs average the ends he plays, and everyday bats get up to a ×1.50 volume boost. Lineup slot scales the score by expected PAs from the bat's usual spot (leadoff ×1.12 … 9-hole ×0.90, modal over the last ~10 played days) — his typical order, not today's card, since that posts after waivers run.

🎯 FA Hitters — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Ryan Jeffers

1Luis Robert Jr.CF · NYM · 14.7%HEATER

88/99 heat with elite L7 production (3 HR, .357) — dominant bat regardless of category need

Heat 88 · 23 BBE · ATC 113 PA · 4 HR · 5 SB · 0.233 · L7 0.357 · 3 HR · sim +0.2 pts

2Dylan Beavers

LF · Bal · 1.1% · UPSIDE

4 HR in L14 with 77/99 heat on minimum 15-BBE trusted sample; power upside real

Heat 77 · 15 BBE · ATC 95 PA · 3 HR · 2 SB · 0.237 · L7 0.286 · 3 HR · sim +0.2 pts

3Tim Tawa

CF · Ari · 5.9% · HEATER

80/99 heat on 36-BBE trusted sample with live L7 production corroborating; best sample size on board

Heat 80 · 36 BBE · ATC 99 PA · 3 HR · 3 SB · 0.226 · L7 0.348 · 1 HR · sim -0.1 pts

4Justin Crawford

CF · Phi · 3.7% · CATEGORY FIT

SB need is live (6 pts from rank 5); Crawford's 5 projected SB directly attacks the gap

ATC 102 PA · 1 HR · 5 SB · 0.268 · L7 0.25 · 0 HR · sim +0.2 pts

5Mickey Gasper

C · Bos · 2.4% · HEATER

90/99 heat, scorching L7 (.500, 2 HR, 8 RBI); 18-BBE sample borderline but production fully corroborates

Heat 90 · 18 BBE · ATC 11 PA · 0 HR · 0 SB · 0.225 · L7 0.5 · 2 HR · sim +0.2 pts

Passed on: Ryan Vilade has the board's highest xwOBAcon (0.651) and EV (97.5) but only 40 PA projected RoS and 16-BBE sample with no recent RBI/HR production to corroborate the flare — volume kills the signal.

💪 Hitter List Rankings

PL Top 150 hitters · your bats + top FAs.

On Hitter List · 17 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Hitter	MLB	Pos	Chg	AVG	xwOBA	HR	SB	RoS	Chu’s Take
18	Randy Arozarena	SEA	OF	-	.274	.349	20	20	123	Randy Arozarena is only hitting .238 in August, but his expected stats for this month suggest it should be closer to .280. I’m a little d…
19	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	DH	+2	.243	.369	39	3	129	When Kyle Schwarber is hot, he’s HOT. The Field of Dreams game was his second two-homer outing in his last five starts and facing the Twi…
39	Yandy Díaz	TB	1B	+10	.305	.356	19	3	123
40	Miguel Vargas	CHW	1B/3B	-10	.246	.389	29	12	113	Miguel Vargas continues to slump, and while there isn’t anything you should do about it from an add/drop perspective, it’s certainly frus…
57	Zach Neto	LAA	SS	+4	.237	.304	22	18	108
62	Royce Lewis	MIN	1B/2B/3B	+8	.233	.319	13	12	103
63	Cole Carrigg	COL	OF	+2	.273	.323	5	7	67
72	Jac Caglianone	KC	1B/OF	+23	.276	.361	22	6	107	Jac Caglianone has improved the strikeout rate in a huge way, and the ground ball rate is below 50%. All systems are GO.
77	Dansby Swanson	CHC	SS	+2	.216	.307	18	17	100
84	Ty France	SD	1B	+1	.289	.329	18	1	106
101	Tyler Soderstrom	ATH	1B/OF	+5	.245	.328	19	2	—
102	Jacob Wilson	ATH	SS	+8	.266	.282	7	4	—
112	Tyler Stephenson	CIN	C	+UR	.246	.338	12	0	95
114	Dylan Crews	WSH	OF	+15	.213	.319	10	8	89
117	Ryan Jeffers	MIN	C	+15	.281	.355	10	1	117
120	Tim Tawa	ARI	1B/2B/3B/OF	+16	.251	.314	8	7	79
122	Andruw Monasterio	BOS	2B/SS	+15	.254	.301	6	4	90
126	Luis Rengifo	SD	2B/3B/OF	+17	.247	.306	4	6	86
133	Cam Smith	HOU	OF	+UR	.215	.323	17	10	100	OK, Cam Smith , go ahead, tease me one more time.
139	Bryce Eldridge	SF	1B	-26	.252	.352	14	1	99	Bryce Eldridge is getting the ball in the air, but he’s not pulling it much and strikeouts have been an issue. He’s a solid hold in Dynas…
TS	Henry Bolte	Oak	OF	—	.276	.304	6	14	97	Henry Bolte (OF, ATH) — Playing every day but the results aren’t overly exciting (though playing a ton of lefties lately has helped).
TS	Jordan Lawlar	Ari	3B/OF	—	.281	.327	2	4	88	Jordan Lawlar (3B/OF, ARI) — Has a home run in back-to-back games on his rehab, but striking out a TON. Sounds like he’ll be back this we…
TS	Kaelen Culpepper	Min	SS	—	.340	.331	2	0	90	Kaelen Culpepper (SS, MIN) — Culpepper is off to a slow start and is sitting every third day or so, but can remain an upside stash if you…
TS	Walker Jenkins	Min	OF	—	—	—	—	—	91	Walker Jenkins (OF, MIN) — Hitting extremely well in August (1.063 OPS), and the collapse of Larnach may give him a chance to break throu…
UR	Franklin Arias	Bos	SS	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	James Wood	Wsh	OF	—	.265	.419	30	17	130	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Ralphy Velazquez	Cle	1B	—	—	—	—	—	85	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.

🔥 Heat Board

Hottest ACTIVE free-agent bats by contact quality, 8/11–8/24 · Heat = percentile vs all MLB bats over the same window (xwOBAcon 30 · EV 20 · Brl 20 · HH 15 · K 10 · BB 5) · min 15 BBE to qualify (smaller samples live in the HM rail) · IL excluded.

Mickey Gasper

C · Bos · 2.4% own · xwOBAcon .585 · EV 91.8 · Brl 22.2% · 18 BBE

▲ .151 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.270	3	17	15	0
L14	.421	3	10	4	0

Ryan Vilade

RF · TB · 0.3% own · xwOBAcon .651 · EV 97.5 · Brl 18.8% · 16 BBE

▲ .145 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.264	11	37	25	3
L14	.409	2	2	5	0

Luis Robert Jr.

CF · NYM · 14.7% own · xwOBAcon .576 · EV 94.3 · Brl 26.1% · 23 BBE

▲ .065 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.225	9	22	22	2
L14	.290	4	6	5	0

Colt Keith

1B · Det · 5.4% own · xwOBAcon .448 · EV 94.0 · Brl 8.3% · 24 BBE

▼ .033 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.266	9	32	46	5
L14	.233	1	1	4	0

Tim Tawa

CF · Ari · 5.9% own · xwOBAcon .495 · EV 91.6 · Brl 13.9% · 36 BBE

▲ .082 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.251	8	32	26	7
L14	.333	2	6	5	3

Coby Mayo

1B · Bal · 1.7% own · xwOBAcon .506 · EV 91.2 · Brl 18.2% · 22 BBE

▼ .035 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.212	17	47	46	2
L14	.177	2	2	6	0

Xander Bogaerts

SS · SD · 18.8% own · xwOBAcon .366 · EV 94.3 · Brl 12.5% · 32 BBE

▼ .029 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.218	11	47	50	17
L14	.189	2	6	4	1

Randal Grichuk

RF · ChW · 0.4% own · xwOBAcon .423 · EV 91.1 · Brl 25.0% · 20 BBE

▲ .136 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.281	11	32	32	0
L14	.417	2	7	6	0

Dylan Beavers

LF · Bal · 1.1% own · xwOBAcon .462 · EV 92.7 · Brl 26.7% · 15 BBE

▲ .028 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.241	6	28	27	5
L14	.269	4	9	4	0

Esmerlyn Valdez

RF · Pit · 18.6% own · xwOBAcon .477 · EV 93.4 · Brl 12.0% · 25 BBE

▲ .024 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.249	15	42	36	0
L14	.273	1	4	8	0

Honorable mention · hottest L7 (8/18–8/24), not yet on the board · tiny samples — peek, don't trust

Hao-Yu Lee

3B · Det

.462 xwOBAcon

15 BBE · .278 L7

Drew Gilbert

RF · SF

.603 xwOBAcon

9 BBE · .200 L7

Patrick Bailey

C · Cle

.522 xwOBAcon

11 BBE · .313 L7

Andres Chaparro

1B · Wsh

.465 xwOBAcon

12 BBE · .357 L7

Justin Foscue

2B · Tex

.482 xwOBAcon

12 BBE · .267 L7

Lars Nootbaar

LF · Ari

.482 xwOBAcon

11 BBE · .273 L7

🎯 FA Pitchers — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Sandy Alcantara

1Dylan SmithRP · SF · 0.6%BEST VALUE

Roto sim +1.3 pts, confirmed closer role, 4 projected SV protects thin SV cushion.

Supp 47 · 9 BBE · ATC 13.0 IP · 1 W · 12 K · 3.97 · 1.33 · 4 SV · Closer · sim +1.3 pts

2Andrew Kittredge

RP · Bal · 1.6% · CATEGORY FIT

Confirmed Baltimore closer, roto sim +0.9, safe ratios, adds saves with zero ERA risk.

Supp 79 · 17 BBE · ATC 12.0 IP · 1 W · 11 K · 3.87 · 1.21 · 2 SV · Closer · sim +0.9 pts

3Kevin Ginkel

RP · Ari · 1.2% · CATEGORY FIT

Confirmed ARI closer, roto sim +0.8, saves bank reinforcement, ratios acceptable.

Supp 56 · 14 BBE · ATC 11.0 IP · 1 W · 12 K · 4.03 · 1.27 · 1 SV · Closer · sim +0.8 pts

4Joey Cantillo

RP · Cle · 24.3% · HEATER

82nd-percentile suppression on 23 BBE trusted sample, best contact-quality allowed in field.

Supp 82 · 23 BBE · ATC 30.0 IP · 2 W · 31 K · 4.05 · 1.33 · sim +0.0 pts

5Clay Holmes

SP · ChC · 28.2% · UPSIDE

87th-percentile suppression on 38 BBE trusted sample, 6 GS volume fits aggressive streaming pace.

Supp 87 · 38 BBE · ATC 31.0 IP · 2 W · 26 K · 3.78 · 1.33 · PL #11 · sim +0.0 pts

Passed on: Nick Lodolo has elite 9th-percentile suppression on a 45-BBE trusted sample but projected ERA/WHIP near 4.24/1.23 threatens MIZ's razor-thin ratio leads, and roto sim shows zero gain.

⚾ Pitcher List Rankings

PL Top 100 SP · your arms + top FAs.

On Pitcher List · 6 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Pitcher	MLB	Chg	ERA	xERA	K/9	RoS	Pollack’s Take
1	Jacob Misiorowski	MIL	-	1.68	1.99	13.4	3.32	I’m kinda incredulous that it’s mid-August and he’s still doing it.
9	Dylan Cease	TOR	+1	2.37	2.68	13.0	3.45	Cease’s walk rate will continue to keep the WHIP higher than we like, but that strikeout rate is bonkers.
16	Blake Snell	LAD	+8	2.57	2.30	11.1	3.42	It’s #HotSnellSummer.
18	Eury Pérez	MIA	+7	3.17	3.67	9.7	3.87	Pérez is getting more done with his slider to RHB, and I’m happy the fastballs find success, even if they need a touch more polish.
26	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	-3	3.38	3.67	6.7	4.19	He’s a QS machine. It’s as simple as that.
28	Kyle Harrison	MIL	-6	2.84	3.15	11.2	4.12	Say what you want about the scoring change of his last start, he still pitched badly. All I want is for him to redeem himself tonight.
38	Jared Jones	PIT	+2	4.76	3.67	10.2	3.99	Jones had some rough patches against the Red Sox, but was able to wriggle out of jams. I still question if this is too high a rank above …
39	Dustin May	MIL	+6	4.57	4.20	8.6	4.09	May isn’t getting the whiffs we want to see from his sweeper (yet), and is still a reliable arm for a winning team.
40	Walbert Ureña	LAA	+2	2.80	3.32	8.7	4.54	Ureña rarely lets us down. He’s really doing José a service.
41	Peter Lambert	HOU	-	3.68	3.44	8.8	4.58	It’s the tier of fantastic pickups and Lambert has produced so regularly for managers all year.
44	Jacob Lopez	ATH	+16	4.98	3.36	8.6	4.63	He’s doing what he did last summer. It’s AWESOME.
46	Joey Cantillo	CLE	-3	3.73	3.89	9.9	4.05	The velocity and curveball are there. It’s what you want.
49	Ryan Weathers	NYY	-5	3.60	4.29	9.4	3.85	It’s interesting seeing Weathers allow far fewer HRs and hold a great ERA at the cost of a high WHIP and fewer strikeouts. Which is bette…
51	Jackson Jobe	DET	-4	4.50	6.33	7.1	4.71	Jobe looked great, then looked blegh. The velocity was still there in his second start, though, with a flatter HAVAA than I receall befor…
53	Nick Lodolo	CIN	+5	5.04	6.50	7.1	4.24	We’ve seen two starts of Lodolo since returning from the IL and I was impressed by his changeup feel recently. Not the rest of his approa…
56	Sean Manaea	NYM	+3	4.31	4.81	9.0	4.26	Manaea’s last outing wasn’t as pretty as the others, but his four-seamer is still the pitch we want it to be.

🔒 Closer Chart

Save targets · roles + regression flags.

🚨 Closer Tier Changes (vs. yesterday)

COLOR SHIFT Pittsburgh Pirates: Mason Montgomery → Mason Montgomery (blue → ) rostered

BLUEEntrenched closer (highest leverage)GREENNext man up / committee pieceYELLOWSetup, 8th-inning leverageORANGESpeculative / lower priorityMAGENTAHigh-upside future / multi-inning

	Pitcher	Tm	Role	SV	SVHD	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K/9	Rtg / Own
Yours on the chart
—	Andrés Muñoz	Seattle Mariners	CL	23	23	47.3	4.37	1.20	3.29 ↓	14.3	5.0 · —
—	Louis Varland	Toronto Blue Jays	CL	29	34	66.3	1.22	0.98	2.24 ↑	11.1	5.0 · —
—	Justin Martinez	Arizona Diamondbacks	FU	0	0	2.0	0.00	1.00	5.53 ↑	4.5	1.0 · —
Top 5 FA closers (by team rating)
—	Dylan Smith	San Francisco Giants	CL	3	10	28.3	2.86	1.24	3.54	11.4	4.0 · 1%
	Andrew Kittredge	Baltimore Orioles	CL	6	15	39.3	3.43	1.35	3.86	7.6	3.0 · 2%
	Kevin Ginkel	Arizona Diamondbacks	CL	2	13	55.0	3.76	1.11	3.72	8.7	1.0 · 1%
🌱 Green-tagged FA — upside / stash
	Calvin Faucher	Miami Marlins	ST	2	16	55.3	4.07	1.39	3.78	10.1	4.0 · 0%

ERA cell: green <3.00 · red >4.50. xERA arrow: ↓ ERA likely to fall (buy) · ↑ ERA likely to rise (sell). Triggers when |xERA−ERA| ≥ 1.00.

✂️ Cut List

Drop priority · value, form, pedigree, role.

51	Justin Martinez RP · Ari low TV (0); UFDA — easy to drop; BUT strong RoS (3.46 ERA) sim −0.82% win if cut	TV 0 UFDA
47	Royce Lewis 3B · Min low TV (18) sim +0.06% win if cut	TV 18 Rd 13
16	Ryan Jeffers C · Min cold last 7d; UFDA — easy to drop sim +0.09% win if cut	TV 100 UFDA
11	Sandy Alcantara SP · Mia BUT solid keeper sim cost ~0	TV 72 Rd 14
9	Yandy Diaz 1B · TB BUT AVG specialist (0.305); BUT strong RoS (123 wRC+) sim +0.10% win if cut	TV 73 Rd 9

Higher score = drop sooner — top 5 by score, and only 8+ reaches the board, so the number has no ceiling and is only comparable within this list. The sim line is a roto-sim marginal (cut vs. keep on one shared set of draws), not a measured cost. Pedigree + named closers shielded.

🌱 Stash List

PL's top prospects · grab them cheap.

Hitters

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 22: Top 10 Hitting Prospects to Stash

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + PSS + PFV + age + 40-man + path.

23 available — 3 yours

W. Jenkins YOURS

OF · MIN · AAA · 21 · knocking on the door

100

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

13·16·.321

F. Arias YOURS

SS · BOS · AAA · 20 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

23·5·.312

R. Velazquez YOURS

1B/C · CLE · AA · 20 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

27·2·.293

J. Tibbs III

OF · LAD · AAA · 23 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

27·7·.302

S. Thompson

OF · COL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

12·14·.300

L. Montes

OF · SEA · AAA · 21 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

37·6·.252

Y. Morales

3B · WSN · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

24·5·.291

S. King

SS/2B/3B · WSN · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

18·14·.325

M. Anderson

2B · DET · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

15·5·.305

E. Salas

C · SDP · AAA · 20 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

September

Szn

10·15·.293

B. Davidson

OF · SFG · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

September

Szn

25·19·.286

R. Ward

LF · LAD · AAA · 28 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

20·7·.259

C. Ingle

C · CLE · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

18·2·.292

C. Cannarella

OF · MIA · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

13·18·.333

P. Harber

3B · SFG · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

'27

Szn

17·4·.289

Z. Hope

OF · DET · AA · 21 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

25·22·.273

H. Mendez

OF · MIN · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

11·4·.279

J. Long

1B · CHC · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

13·3·.279

K. Alderman

OF · MIA · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

18·10·.266

E. Arroyo

SS · CIN · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

15·14·.292

J. Made

SS · MIL · AA · 19 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

13·33·.272

M. Arroyo

SS · SEA · AAA · 21 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

17·15·.281

D. Crisantes

2B/3B · ARI · AAA · 21 · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

8·0·.291

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

Pitchers

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 22: Top 10 Pitching Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + L3 quality + FV + age + 40-man + path.

28 available

E. Pecko

SP · HOU · AAA · 23 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

90K·4.59

H. Smith

SP · CHW · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

August 1st

Szn

100K·3.93

C. Seymour

SP · SFG · AAA · 27 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

83K·4.00

K. Curtis

SP · PIT · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

109K·4.65

R. Snelling

SP · MIA · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

46K·2.38

J. Tong

SP · NYM · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

125K·4.75

A. Kelly

SP · PIT · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

70K·4.21

E. Rodriguez

SP · NYY · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

109K·2.91

T. Johnson

SP · TBR · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

78K·2.81

C. Crow

SP · MIL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

89K·3.55

T. McDougal

SP · CHW · AAA · 23 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

47K·4.43

T. Bremner

SP · LAA · AA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

'26

Szn

84K·4.26

D. Davalillo

SP · TEX · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

90K·4.61

R. Sloan

SP · SEA · AA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

100

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

111K·3.63

M. Bratt

SP · ARI · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

79K·3.33

J. Ritchie

SP · ATL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

114K·3.83

M. Forret

SP · BAL · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

115K·3.85

B. Garrett

SP · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

June 1st

Szn

101K·3.68

M. Wilkinson

SP · SFG · AAA · 23 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

98K·3.57

B. Mautz

SP · STL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

90K·3.89

C. Dana

SP · LAA · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

69K·6.18

G. Wood

P · PHI · AA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

'26

Szn

117K·4.11

M. Ullola

SP · HOU · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

93K·4.50

J. Wenninger

SP · NYM · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

104K·4.17

L. Perales

SP · WSN · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

97K·3.64

B. Hopkins

SP · TBR · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

111K·5.52

T. Gibson

SP · BAL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

94K·5.15

L. Braun

SP · ATL · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

95K·3.81

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

🔭 11 not a 2026 factor — Joseph Dzierwa · Liam Doyle · Jamie Arnold · Anthony Eyanson · Jurrangelo Cijntje · Christian Zazueta · Jaxon Wiggins · Nestor German · Tyson Hardin · Jonathan Santucci · Karson Milbrandt

💼 Trades

Buy-low targets · league trade history.

Top Buy-Lows

Rebound candidates · suggested offers.

Hitters

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Trent Grisham CF · NYY · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.2σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.221 / xBA 0.249 · xwOBA 0.342	32%	115 wRC+	↓ 0.3%	Franklin Arias SS + Royce Lewis 3B + +$5 FAAB · two-piece package (TV 27 vs target 37)
📈 BUY-LOW	Ronald Acuna Jr. RF · Atl · GoOs · My Best Guys +1.2σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.232 / xBA 0.251 · xwOBA 0.360	98%	135 wRC+	≈ 0.2%	Blake Snell SP + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 79 vs target 86)
📈 BUY-LOW	JJ Bleday CF · Cin · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.2σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.223 / xBA 0.240 · xwOBA 0.347	25%	102 wRC+	↓ 0.3%	Franklin Arias SS + Royce Lewis 3B · two-piece package (TV 27 vs target 27)
📈 BUY-LOW	Heriberto Hernandez LF · Mia · FRAN · francisw789 +1.2σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.228 / xBA 0.248 · xwOBA 0.349	3%	98 wRC+	↓ 0.4%	Royce Lewis 3B · comparable value (TV 18 vs target 23)
↑ mild buy	Brandon Nimmo LF · Tex · DORN · Lambertmt48 +0.6σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.262 / xBA 0.282 · xwOBA 0.358	68%	118 wRC+	≈ 0.1%	Walker Jenkins CF + Kyle Harrison SP · two-piece package (TV 62 vs target 45)
↑ mild buy	Taylor Ward LF · Sea · GoOs · My Best Guys +0.5σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.236 / xBA 0.244 · xwOBA 0.338	62%	118 wRC+	↓ 0.4%	Kyle Harrison SP · comparable value (TV 60 vs target 60)
↑ mild buy	Kyle Stowers LF · Mia · KNIG · TKHOO +0.6σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.242 / xBA 0.235 · xwOBA 0.331	28%	110 wRC+	≈ 0.1%	Franklin Arias SS + Royce Lewis 3B · two-piece package (TV 27 vs target 27)
↑ mild buy	Dominic Canzone RF · Sea · GARR · jregarris +0.6σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.256 / xBA 0.266 · xwOBA 0.352	13%	114 wRC+	≈ 0.2%	Franklin Arias SS + Royce Lewis 3B + +$3 FAAB · two-piece package (TV 27 vs target 33)
📈 BUY-LOW	Mike Trout OF · LAA · KNIG · TKHOO +1.4σ buy-low · OF — fits a need · BA 0.239 / xBA 0.253 · xwOBA 0.380	95%	126 wRC+	≈ 0.1%	Sandy Alcantara SP · comparable value (TV 72 vs target 76)
↑ mild buy	Oneil Cruz CF · Pit · PEYT · simplejack2k9 +1.0σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.265 / xBA 0.255 · xwOBA 0.362	84%	106 wRC+	≈ 0.1%	Kyle Harrison SP · comparable value (TV 60 vs target 61)

Pitchers

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Kodai Senga SP · NYM · KRTZ · FratSkins +1.6σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 7.79 vs xERA 4.98	10%	3.96 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Franklin Arias SS · comparable value (TV 9 vs target 14)
↑ mild buy	Freddy Peralta SP · TB · KNIG · TKHOO +0.8σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 5.33 vs xERA 4.11	68%	4.01 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Franklin Arias SS + Royce Lewis 3B + +$16 FAAB · two-piece package (TV 27 vs target 42)
↑ mild buy	Landen Roupp SP · SF · FRST · prestonc51684 +0.6σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.34 vs xERA 3.75	20%	3.98 ERA	≈ 0.1%	Royce Lewis 3B · comparable value (TV 18 vs target 19)
↑ mild buy	Bryce Miller SP · Sea · BLOB · crenshawh19 +0.6σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.12 vs xERA 3.17	39%	4.10 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Walker Jenkins CF + Kyle Harrison SP · two-piece package (TV 62 vs target 48)
↑ mild buy	Aaron Nola SP · Phi · PEYT · simplejack2k9 +0.5σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 5.12 vs xERA 4.17	46%	4.34 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Franklin Arias SS + Royce Lewis 3B · two-piece package (TV 27 vs target 26)

League History

Completed trades · frozen grade at the deal + live grade now.

Side	Sent	At deal	Now	Trend
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Andy Pages	A- +7	A+ +44	▲ up
Camp MVP	Pete Crow-Armstrong	C -7	F -44	▼ down
Team Knighton ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Team Knighton	Matthew Boyd	F -22	F -22
Camp MVP	Kenley Jansen	A+ +22	A+ +22
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Worst2First 2026-08-10
Miz-waukee’s Best	Charlie Condon, Payton Tolle	A+ +50	A+ +35	▼ down
Worst2First	Dylan Cease	F -50	F -35	▲ up
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Dorn and Associates LLC 2026-08-05
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Travis Bazzana, George Lombard Jr., Nolan McLean	A+ +144	A+ +106	▼ down
Dorn and Associates LLC	Jackson Chourio, Jhoan Duran, Brice Turang, David Bednar	F -144	F -106	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-07-31
Miz-waukee’s Best	Samuel Basallo, Kade Anderson	A- +8	A- +7
Ramirez Against the Machine	Blake Snell	C -8	C -7
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Team Knighton 2026-07-23
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Jo Adell, Jacob deGrom	F -49	F -50
Team Knighton	Trea Turner	A+ +49	A+ +50
Ramirez Against the Machine ⇄ Miz-waukee’s Best 2026-07-19
Ramirez Against the Machine	Sandy Alcantara	F -42	F -68	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best	Josh Jung	A+ +42	A+ +68	▲ up
I need Buck Showalter ⇄ Hit the Damn Ball You Bums 2026-06-19
I need Buck Showalter	Nasim Nunez	A+ +28	B +0	▼ down
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Justin Wrobleski	F -28	B -0	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ The Boys of Summer 2026-06-12
Miz-waukee’s Best	Chandler Simpson	A +10	A- +7	▼ down
The Boys of Summer	$30 FAAB	D -10	C -7	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-05-01
Miz-waukee’s Best	Kenley Jansen	—	A- +7
Camp MVP	$30 FAAB	A- +3	C -7	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-04-22
Miz-waukee’s Best	Nathan Eovaldi, $70 FAAB	—	F -40
Ramirez Against the Machine	Jac Caglianone	A+ +60	A+ +40	▼ down

🔻 Sell-High — My Roster

Surface line outrunning the underlying skill — trade-value peaks. σ = his surface-stat z-score minus his Statcast-skill z-score, both against the league reference for his side — bigger σ = further ahead of the skill. Pair with Buy-Low Targets.

Verdict	Player	Own	Surface vs expected	Contact	2027 keeper
↓ SHOP	Henry Bolte RF · Oak 0.81σ sell-high · RF · BA 0.270 / xBA 0.239 · xwOBA 0.304 — test the market, don't force it	4%	BA 0.270 / xBA 0.239 +.031 wOBA 0.321 / xwOBA 0.304 +.017	HH 47.5% · Brl/PA 4.2%	25th · +2 rds vs mkt
↓ SHOP	Yandy Diaz 1B · TB 0.69σ sell-high · 1B · BA 0.306 / xBA 0.288 · xwOBA 0.356 — test the market, don't force it	93%	BA 0.306 / xBA 0.288 +.018 wOBA 0.366 / xwOBA 0.356 +.010	HH 47.4% · Brl/PA 5.2%	7th · +1 rd vs mkt
HOLD — KEEPER PRICE	Louis Varland RP · Tor 0.49σ sell-high · RP · ERA 1.22 vs xERA 2.24 — only move for keeper-grade return	86%	ERA 1.22 / xERA 2.24 -1.02	Brl 4.4% allowed	22nd · +16 rds vs mkt

👥 Your Roster

Your roster · news + buy/sell signals.

News (last 24h)

Player news · last 24h.

Ryan Jeffers Fantasy baseball lineup advice for Tuesday: Nola, Kay among top streamers
Tue 08-25 11:29 AM
Everything you need to know to set your fantasy baseball lineups for Tuesday's MLB action.

Leverage Buys/Sells

Buy/sell windows · surface vs. underlying.

Hitters

Player	Pos	MLB	BA	xBA	wOBA	xwOBA	Brl%	Own%	Signal
James Wood IL10	LF	Wsh	0.265	0.275	0.395	0.419	100.0	99.1	📈 BUY-LOW
Miguel Vargas	3B	ChW	0.246	0.266	0.367	0.389	93.0	95.1	📈 BUY-LOW
Kyle Schwarber	DH	Phi	0.243	0.240	0.380	0.369	98.0	99.6	📈 BUY-LOW
Bryce Eldridge BRV	1B	SF	0.252	0.251	0.343	0.352	76.0	8.2	↑ mild buy
Jac Caglianone DTD	RF	KC	0.276	0.280	0.353	0.361	92.0	56.8	fair
Zach Neto	SS	LAA	0.237	0.207	0.329	0.304	77.0	60.1	fair
Randy Arozarena	LF	Sea	0.274	0.263	0.367	0.349	53.0	93.6	fair
Yandy Diaz	1B	TB	0.305	0.288	0.366	0.356	42.0	92.7	↓ mild fade
Cole Carrigg	CF	Col	0.273	0.255	0.351	0.323	—	14.9	fair
Walker Jenkins	CF	Min	—	—	—	—	—	1.9	—
Ryan Jeffers	C	Min	0.281	0.252	0.380	0.355	—	43.4	fair
Henry Bolte	RF	Oak	0.276	0.239	0.321	0.304	41.0	4.3	↓ mild fade
Kaelen Culpepper	SS	Min	0.340	0.271	0.342	0.331	—	3.2	fair
Royce Lewis	3B	Min	0.233	0.243	0.311	0.319	77.0	18.9	↑ mild buy
Jordan Lawlar	3B	Ari	0.281	0.273	0.348	0.327	—	3.2	fair
Franklin Arias	SS	Bos	—	—	—	—	—	1.4	—
Ralphy Velazquez	1B	Cle	—	—	—	—	—	0.7	—

Pitchers

Pitcher	Pos	MLB	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K-BB%	xwOBA-a	Brl%-a	Own%	Signal
Blake Snell	SP	LAD	21.0	2.57	1.05	2.30	19.5	0.236	0.0	87.8	↑ mild buy
Andres Munoz	RP	Sea	47.3	4.37	1.20	3.29	28.6	0.282	9.5	80.1	↑ mild buy
Joe Ryan IL15	SP	Min	125.7	4.08	1.15	3.49	21.2	0.290	10.5	90.3	fair
Jacob Misiorowski	SP	Mil	145.0	1.68	0.76	1.99	33.3	0.219	3.8	99.6	fair
Dylan Cease	SP	Tor	144.3	2.37	1.06	2.68	25.0	0.255	4.6	99.3	fair
Sandy Alcantara	SP	Mia	183.7	3.38	1.18	3.67	11.6	0.297	5.3	91.3	fair
Kyle Harrison	SP	Mil	98.3	2.84	1.11	3.15	23.9	0.276	6.8	78.2	fair
Eury Perez	SP	Mia	127.7	3.17	1.11	3.67	16.5	0.297	9.1	82.2	fair
Louis Varland	RP	Tor	66.3	1.22	0.98	2.24	24.8	0.233	4.4	86.1	↓ mild fade
Justin Martinez	RP	Ari	2.0	0.00	1.00	5.53	-11.1	0.357	0.0	1.6	—

📰 MLB News — Top Fantasy Stories

🔒 Keepers — 2027 Slate

Peter's model (additive): rounds-saved (cost arbitrage spine) + current skill + career-grade pedigree + sample stability + Statcast over/under-performance trend, with age-decline (33+), closer/RP, and top-30 talent adjustments. Heavy on bargain-hunting.
Claude's model (multiplicative dynasty index): EFV(2027) = (3 + skill + upside) × age_mult × pos_mult; score = EFV − cost_replacement − mookie-lock. Compounds age curve and position scarcity.
Sorted by consensus rank (average of both models). MLB-inactive players surfaced in 🚑 Return Watch below.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict	Notes
1.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	21st	#1 (+24.4)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51	UFDA-G FV 55
2.0	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	25th	#2 (+21.5)	#2 (+17.1)	A · $17	UFDA
3.0	Jac Caglianone	RF · 22yo	21st	#3 (+19.5)	#3 (+15.9)	A · $16	UFDA-G FV 55
4.0	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	22nd	#4 (+17.2)	#4 (+15.6)	A · $16
5.0	Kyle Harrison	SP · 24yo	25th	#5 (+17.2)	#5 (+14.4)	A · $14	UFDA
6.0	Eury Perez	SP · 23yo	20th	#6 (+16.6)	#6 (+13.9)	A · $14	UFDA-G
7.0	Bryce Eldridge	1B · 20yo	25th	#7 (+16.0)	#7 (+13.7)	A · $14	UFDA FV 55
8.0	Dylan Cease	SP · 30yo	4th	#8 (+11.9)	#8 (+11.7)	A · $12

NEW UFDA cap: Peter 3/3 · Claude 3/3 · BOTH = top 8 in both models. Peter only = his model values cost surplus more; Claude only = mine values projection / position scarcity more.

🚑 Return watch — would be keeper-eligible if they get MLB action this year. Rank shown is hypothetical (where they'd slot if eligible).

Player	Pos · Age	Cost	Peter (if elig.)	Claude (if elig.)
Walker Jenkins	CF · 20yo	25th	#15 (-2.0)	#14 (+1.4)
Franklin Arias	SS · 19yo	25th	#15 (-2.0)	#13 (+3.0)
Ralphy Velazquez	1B · 19yo	25th	#15 (-2.0)	#14 (+1.4)

Updated Tue Aug 25 · 9:05 AM ET

🌍 League-Wide Top Keepers

Top 10 keepers · all 12 teams · both models. Yours in green.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	Team	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict
1.5	Jordan Walker	RF · 24yo	GARR	25th	#1 (+28.5)	#2 (+47.4)	S · $47
3.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	MIZ	21st	#5 (+24.4)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51
3.5	Jesus Luzardo	SP · 28yo	KNIG	21st	#2 (+27.7)	#5 (+33.4)	S · $33
3.5	Bryan Baker	RP · 31yo	DORN	25th	#3 (+25.2)	#4 (+38.7)	S · $39
5.0	Carson Benge	CF · 22yo	KRTZ	25th	#4 (+24.6)	#6 (+29.9)	S · $30
7.0	Jake McCarthy	LF · 28yo	FRAN	25th	#7 (+22.6)	#7 (+29.9)	S · $30
7.0	Cam Schlittler	SP · 24yo	KRTZ	19th	— (+19.5)	#3 (+40.8)	S · $41
8.5	Payton Tolle	SP · 22yo	FRST	25th	#6 (+23.0)	— (+19.8)	S · $20
9.5	Jose Soriano	SP · 27yo	BLOB	25th	#8 (+22.5)	— (+19.8)	S · $20
9.5	Wilyer Abreu	RF · 27yo	KNIG	15th	— (+18.5)	#8 (+28.5)	S · $28
10.0	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	MIZ	25th	#9 (+21.5)	— (+17.1)	A · $17
10.0	Cristopher Sanchez	SP · 29yo	PEYT	9th	— (+18.2)	#9 (+26.9)	S · $27
10.5	Foster Griffin	SP · 30yo	GoOs	25th	#10 (+20.8)	— (+21.2)	S · $21
10.5	Nolan McLean	SP · 23yo	DORN	20th	— (+20.4)	#10 (+24.0)	S · $24

Updated Tue Aug 25 · 9:05 AM ET

🏚️ Keeper Cupboards

Every team's six best keepers · shade = dual-model consensus value. Cupboard score weights the top four heavily (the slots that get kept), keepers 5–8 taper. 100 = league's best cupboard.

Team	K1	K2	K3	K4	K5	K6	Cupboard
1MIZ	MisiorowskiR21	VargasR25	CaglianoneR21	VarlandR22	HarrisonR25	PerezR20	100
2DORN	BakerR25	McLeanR20	RiceR20	PerdomoR21	BazzanaR25	WarrenR25	87
3KRTZ	BengeR25	SchlittlerR19	BurkeR25	McGonigleR17	IIR5	StewartR10	85
4FRAN	McCarthyR25	CavalliR21	LatzR25	BurnsR5	AntonacciR25	BradishR21	85
5KNIG	LuzardoR21	AbreuR15	deGromR13	MartinezR25	RodriguezR25	AdellR8	84
6GARR	WalkerR25	MessickR18	DinglerR22	GrayR7	CanzoneR25	SimpsonR9	78
7BLOB	SorianoR25	ScottR25	LileR15	LopezR20	SuarezR12	BurgerR19	71
8GoOs	GriffinR25	BradleyR25	RafaelaR8	ReynoldsR10	BurlesonR9	DubonR25	66
9FRST	TolleR25	RouppR25	WheelerR8	BuxtonR7	ElderR25	SkubalR1	62
10THAR	RasmussenR8	O'BrienR17	WilliamsR11	BauersR25	KeaschallR21	GonzalesR25	62
11RAGE ▼ thin	LeeR21	EwingR25	CamineroR5	BledayR25	HerreraR20	BibeeR14	59
12PEYT ▼ thin	SanchezR9	WooR8	HendersonR25	ArenadoR25	CameronR18	CruzR1	51

The bottom two rows are your trade marks — thin cupboards pay up for keepable pieces.

data: snap 1h · BP 24h · PL 6d · HL 10d · PSS 5h · BR 0h · FG 4h · proj 5h · closer 0h · oyster 22h · AAA-sc 10h · cookie ok