Miz-waukee’s Best — The Brandon League

Last updated Monday, August 31 · 04:21 AM ET

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Any player in the league universe · tap a result for the card.

☕ Morning Briefing

🏆 MIZ sits at 1st overall with 106.0 roto points, a massive 20.5-point cushion over Hit the Damn Ball You Bums in 2nd — but keep an eye on SB: DORN is only 4 steals behind you in that category, and THAR is just 6 steals ahead for a point you could take.

🚨 Callup watch: the Mariners are reportedly calling up Lazaro Montes, the big-time slugger who is currently on your roster — that's a win for MIZ's lineup depth whenever the move is official. Slot Kyle Harrison into your active lineup today; he's your projected starter.

🌱 Both stash-board prospects put up serious lines yesterday: Sebastian Walcott (RI 90, MLB Pipeline #9, FA) went 2-for-4 with a HR, 3 RBI, and a BB at AA, while Bo Davidson (RI 86, FA) went 2-for-3 with a HR, 5 RBI, and a BB at AAA — two names worth monitoring on the wire as their stock rises.

📋 A few waiver-wire angles worth knowing: Agustin Ramirez was just dropped by Dorn and Associates and is now a free agent — he carries +nanσ underlying skill, so he's worth a look if you need the spot. On the closer front, Dylan Smith (SF, confirmed closer, sim +0.9 pts, 3 projected save opportunities, ranked #3 in saves) is your top available add, with Andrew Kittredge (BAL, confirmed closer, sim +0.7 pts) right behind — both would bolster your saves cushion. Calvin Faucher (MIA) also has improving role security now flagged blue. Luis Gil was recalled by the Yankees and is available if you need pitching rotation depth.

📰 Around the league, Roman Anthony is back — Boston activated him off the 60-day IL, giving DORN a boost in the standings race, so expect your closest pursuer to get more productive. Byron Buxton hit the IL (right hip) for FRST, and JJ Wetherholt (right wrist tendinitis) goes down for PEYT — two roster holes that could shake up the waiver wire in the coming days. Nick Pivetta is on a rehab assignment with El Paso, inching back toward a return for GARR, who also loses Emerson Hancock (15-day IL, left abductor strain) in the meantime.

ELIGIBILITYK. Schwarber 1B 6/10P. Ramirez 1B 4/10

Your standing

1stof 12

106.0 roto pts +20.5 clear of 2nd

no change vs last update

Top Gaps

SB (7.0) W (8.0)

categories below mid-pack

🎯 Category Pressure

Category ranks vs. the league.

Rank →

Δ to #1

922

995

🥇

262

289

🥇

RBI

857

877

🥇

128

132

138

195

+63

AVG

.255

.256

.258

+0.003

1152

1180

1296

+116

+11

ERA

3.39

3.19

🥇

WHIP

1.17

1.11

🥇

📅 Yesterday's MIZ Box Scores (2026-08-30)

Loading box scores…

🏥 IL Rehab Tracker

IL players · rehab game logs.

James Wood (LF) IL10 on rehab
AA2026-08-30 · 1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 0 SB

On the IL, no rehab games yet: Joe Ryan (IL15), Spencer Schwellenbach (IL60 · watch).

📊 League Activity (last 24h)

All adds, drops, and trades across the 12 teams.

Team	Move
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	+ Zebby Matthews \| − Cal Quantrill
Dorn and Associates LLC	+ Tristan Peters \| − Agustin Ramirez
Phil Swift's Flex Seal	+ Tyler Mahle \| − Andrew Alvarez

🏆 League Standings

Current roto points · 10,000-sim projected finish. FAAB = acquisition budget remaining.

99.8% to win the league · proj finish 1.0 · 101.5 roto pts

#	Team	Pts	FAAB	Win%	Proj Pts	Range	Proj Rk
1	MIZ Miz-waukee’s Best	106.0	$0	99.8%	101.5	97–105	1.0
2	FRAN Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	85.5	$74	0.2%	87.9	82–93	2.1
3	PEYT Phil Swift's Flex Seal	78.0	$31	0.0%	80.6	75–87	3.4
4	KRTZ Photogenic Nick Kurtz	76.5	$25	0.0%	80.1	74–86	3.5
5	GoOs I need Buck Showalter	72.0	$170	0.0%	72.0	66–77	5.1
6	BLOB Camp MVP	67.5	$168	0.0%	69.0	65–72	5.7
7	THAR Phil Mickeltits	61.5	$176	0.0%	59.2	54–64	7.2
8	KNIG Team Knighton	58.0	$137	0.0%	56.3	51–61	7.8
9	GARR The Boys of Summer	47.5	$155	0.0%	48.7	44–54	9.2
10	DORN Dorn and Associates LLC	45.0	$89	0.0%	44.8	41–50	10.0
11	RAGE Ramirez Against the Machine	43.5	$163	0.0%	37.0	34–41	11.9
12	FRST Worst2First	39.0	$154	0.0%	42.8	38–48	10.6

10,000 sims · fixed seed · noise CV talent 0.12 / idio 0.06 / team-cat 0.08 · assumes ATC rest-of-season rates

Your categories · projected roto points

R 12.0HR 12.0RBI 11.4SB 7.2AVG 9.0W 6.3SV 9.1K 10.6ERA 12.0WHIP 12.0

Winnable — push here: SB, AVG, W, SV.

🚨 Today's Streaming Board

152 of 200 GS · should be 171 · 19 behindBehind pace — stream aggressively

048 left · ~12.4/wk to cap · proj 178200

⏳ BP's post is late — Verdict pill is running on our score + Pitcher List for now (BP joins the top-2 once it posts).

Your starters + top FA streamers

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Kyle Harrison	@ CHC	START	—	4.9	#3	Velocity drop and absent changeup are real concerns; fastball command
Brandon Pfaadt	vs. PHI	START	—	—	#6	Vargas Rule apply; HR-ruined starts obscure solid underlying profile.
Clay Holmes	vs MIL	START	—	5.6	#11	Win and ERA upside; strikeout and WHIP drag likely.
Peter Lambert	vs CWS	DART	—	4.3	#7	Unlucky Yankee start; sustained Holly-tier quality backs continued confidence.
Walbert Urena	vs NYY	DART	—	5.0	—	average NYY lineup, strong skills
George Klassen	vs. NYY	DART	—	—	#14	Elite gyro slider vs. RHB; LHB-heavy Yankees expose developing weakness.
Anthony Kay	@ HOU	SIT	—	3.7	#15	Unremarkable but functional; no upside or downside edge.
Jackson Jobe	@ MIN	SIT	—	2.2	#12	Soft contact expected vs. weak Twins; not a strikeout play.
Tanner Gordon	vs BAL	SITwx⚠ opener	—	5.5	#24	Coors Field hard pass; emphatic no.
Elmer Rodriguez	@ LAA	SIT	—	3.9	#19	Adrenaline spike in velo; regression expected, results will worsen.
Ryan Gusto	@ WSH	SITleash	—	3.9	#22	Short outings and insufficient production; not worth rostering.

Openers filtered: Anthony Molina, Will Dion

Your staff: 3.19 ERA / 1.11 WHIP · GS 152/200 — Behind pace — stream aggressively. Verdict = the best 2 of BP · our score · Pitcher List, averaged (low outlier dropped); before BP posts it's our score + PL. ⚠ = our matchup score dissented — eyeball that one. Tap a MIZ score for the reasoning.

Tomorrow · top 5 FA · Tue 9/1 · BP not out yet, so pill = our score + Pitcher List

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Grayson Rodriguez	vs NYY	DART	—	4.5	—	average NYY lineup, weak skills, hot recent form
Eric Lauer	vs STL	DART	—	4.3	—	average STL lineup, weak skills
J.T. Ginn	@ TEX	DART	—	4.3	—	average TEX lineup, shaky recent form, hitter park
Gabriel Hughes	vs BAL	DART	—	4.2	—	average BAL lineup, hitter park, shaky recent form
Connor Prielipp	vs DET	SIT	—	4.0	—	average DET lineup, shaky recent form, hitter park

📼 Streamer Report Card

Does the Streaming Board actually work? Every pick it showed, frozen at pick time and graded off the real box score. Two scoreboards below: first our own calls — the Verdict ladder and MIZ (our matchup score, 0–10) — then the outside lists behind them, BP (RelieverRecon's daily BP Streamers post) and PL (Pitcher List's tier ranking). Grades are recomputed from raw lines on every build — the rubric can change, the history follows.

Last 30d · 352 starts graded over 29 days · GOOD+ 51% · BLOWUP 16% · agg ERA 4.23 · WHIP 1.32 · 4.5 K/start · 376 picks logged, 12 never started, 12 awaiting a box score — not graded

Grade mix · all 352 graded starts

GEM 70 GOOD 108 OK 116 BLOWUP 58

GEM6+ IP, ≤1 ER · or 6+ IP, 8+ K, ≤2 ERGOODquality start (6+ IP, ≤3 ER) · or 5+ IP, ≤2 EROKheld the line without earning GOODBLOWUP5+ ER · or under 4 IP with 4+ ERGOOD+ = GEM + GOOD. A pick whose starter never took the ball grades to nothing and leaves every rate below.

Cohort	n	GOOD+	BLOWUP	ERA
Q1 — Do our own calls work? · Verdict ladder + MIZ bands · live board rows only, nothing backfilled
Verdict · AUTO START	25	72%	12%	3.38
Verdict · START	43	60%	7%	3.51
Verdict · DART	98	47%	15%	4.55
Verdict · SIT	186	47%	20%	4.37
MIZ ≥ 5.0	121	61%	14%	3.66
MIZ 3.5–4.9	129	49%	16%	4.50
MIZ < 3.5	85	40%	21%	4.82
All live board picks	352	51%	16%	4.23
Q1 read — the ladder has not separated: GOOD+ runs 72% · 60% · 47% · 47% down the rungs, and MIZ sorts: GOOD+ falls 61% · 49% · 40% from the top band down.
Q2 — Which outside list earns the weight? · BP and PL graded on their own published lists · mostly rebuilt from git
PL · Auto Start	23	74%	9%	3.25
PL · Probably Start	39	56%	15%	4.17
PL · Questionable Start	94	53%	14%	4.14
PL · Do Not Start	172	48%	20%	4.41
BP · Auto	11	36%	9%	4.74
BP · Likely	42	45%	19%	4.53
All graded picks	352	51%	16%	4.23
Q2 read — against the 51% all-picks baseline, PL's top tiers clear it (74% · 56%) and BP's top tiers are too thin to call (36% · 45% on n=11 · n=42).

Rows are overlapping lenses on the same picks, not a partition — one start can be a PL Auto Start and a Verdict SIT at once, so they never sum to the headline; each group is read against its own baseline row.

⚠ Dissent check — the override is ahead so far — 62% GOOD+ on n=8. Splits are picks the board started over our MIZ sit-call (vs 51% for all live picks).

Calibration — do our numbers mean anything? · full season, 2026-06-29→2026-08-30 · 890 graded picks · MIZ on 353, BP on 230, Verdict on 371

The ladder above asks whether the tiers sort. This asks the harder question: is the number a probability — when the board says 7, do 70% of those starts come back GOOD+? Bins are equal-count and merge until every one clears n=15; the walk-forward rows are scored against a model that only ever saw earlier days.

Score bin	n	mean	GOOD+	95% CI
MIZ score → P(GOOD+) · our matchup score, 0–10 · live rows only · n=353
MIZ 0.5–3.3	80	2.6	42%	32%–53%
MIZ 3.4–3.9	61	3.7	46%	34%–58%
MIZ 4.0–4.8	77	4.4	52%	41%–63%
MIZ 4.9–5.5	64	5.2	55%	43%–66%
MIZ 5.6–8.9	71	6.4	63%	52%–74%
All MIZ-scored picks	353	—	52%	—
BP score → P(GOOD+) · RelieverRecon's published rating · includes git-backfilled rows · n=230
BP 4.6–6.6	48	6.1	35%	23%–50%
BP 6.7–7.3	44	7.0	52%	38%–66%
BP 7.4–7.7	47	7.5	45%	31%–59%
BP 7.8–8.4	47	8.1	47%	33%–61%
BP 8.5–10.0	44	9.1	43%	30%–58%
All BP-scored picks	230	—	44%	—
Verdict tier → P(GOOD+) · the consensus call itself · live rows only
AUTO START	27	—	70%	52%–84%
START	46	—	59%	44%–72%
DART	102	—	48%	39%–58%
SIT	196	—	48%	41%–55%

Out-of-sample	n	value	vs
Walk-forward probability · logistic on MIZ, refit daily on earlier days only · from 2026-08-05 · 25 days
Brier — our probability	289	0.247	lower is better
Brier — flat base rate to date	289	0.255	we win by 0.008
Brier — verdict-tier history	289	0.256	we win by 0.009
Log loss — our probability	289	0.686	lower is better
ECE — our probability	289	0.051	5 equal-count bins
ECE bins · predicted p vs what actually happened
said 32%–48%	58	43%	off by 1%
said 48%–52%	58	41%	off by 8%
said 52%–56%	57	46%	off by 9%
said 56%–60%	58	53%	off by 5%
said 60%–74%	58	62%	off by 3%
Verdict — usable with caveats: ECE 0.051 over n=289 out-of-sample picks (≤0.03 well calibrated · ≤0.07 usable with caveats); edges the flat base rate on Brier (0.247 vs 0.255, a thin margin; log-loss ~coin-flip).

🔥 Today's Hitter Streamers

Top 10 FA bats for today's slate · score = split vs SP hand (35%) + SP softness (35%) + bat quality (15%) + trailing 15 days (10%) + park (5%) · facing an elite arm fades the score hard (feast on weak pitchers).

#	Hitter	Matchup	Why	Legs	Score
1	AUTO STARTMickey GasperC · 5% own	vs SEA · Kirby RHP	szn .360 xwOBAL15: 1.710 OPS (37 PA)L14 contact +6.0 (.601 xwOBAcon, 25 BBE)usually bats 5thbeats 2 of 2 eligible startersKirby .305 allowed · avg SP0.946 OPS vs RHP (113 AB)BOS plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	78
2	AUTO STARTBlaze Alexander3B · 4% own	@ COL · Gordon RHP	szn .361 xwOBAusually bats 1st (×1.12)fills OF needbeats 10 of 11 eligible startersGordon .323 allowed · avg SP0.873 OPS vs RHP (145 AB)COL plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	76
3	AUTO STARTTy France1B · 13% own	@ CIN · Singer RHP	szn .331 xwOBAL15: 0.765 OPS (58 PA)L14 contact -0.5 (.358 xwOBAcon, 28 BBE)usually bats 4th (×1.05)beats 2 of 3 eligible startersSinger .345 allowed · soft SP0.881 OPS vs RHP (254 AB)CIN plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	75
4	AUTO STARTRyan ViladeRF · 0% own	vs NYM · Stock RHP	szn .326 xwOBAL15: 1.047 OPS (27 PA)L14 contact +6.0 (.547 xwOBAcon, 13 BBE)usually bats 2nd (×1.10)fills OF needbeats 8 of 10 eligible startersshort side vs RHP — 38% of ABStock .339 allowed · soft SP0.735 OPS vs RHP (76 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	70
5	AUTO STARTLars NootbaarLF · 3% own	vs PHI · Nola RHP	szn .345 xwOBAL15: 1.079 OPS (31 PA)L14 contact +6.0 (.514 xwOBAcon, 26 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)fills OF needbeats 6 of 6 eligible startersNola .315 allowed · avg SP0.764 OPS vs RHP (183 AB)AZ plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	68
6	STARTLuis CampusanoC · 1% own	@ CIN · Singer RHP	szn .335 xwOBAL14 contact -5.0 (.120 xwOBAcon, 12 BBE)usually bats 6th (×0.98)beats 1 of 2 eligible startersSinger .345 allowed · soft SP0.873 OPS vs RHP (117 AB)CIN plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	66
7	AUTO STARTSamad Taylor2B · 1% own	@ CIN · Singer RHP	szn .326 xwOBAfills OF needbeats 7 of 8 eligible startersSinger .345 allowed · soft SP0.788 OPS vs RHP (64 AB)CIN plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	63
8	AUTO STARTJose SiriCF · 0% own	vs NYY · Rodríguez RHP	szn .311 xwOBAL15: 0.272 OPS (39 PA)L14 contact +1.4 (.401 xwOBAcon, 17 BBE)usually bats 5thfills OF needbeats 4 of 6 eligible startersshort side vs RHP — 49% of ABRodríguez .355 allowed · soft SP0.755 OPS vs RHP (83 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	57
9	CONSIDERTyler StephensonC · 6% own	vs SD · King RHP	szn .337 xwOBAL15: 0.830 OPS (52 PA)L14 contact -1.1 (.345 xwOBAcon, 22 BBE)usually bats 4th (×1.05)beats 0 of 2 eligible startersKing .319 allowed · avg SP0.784 OPS vs RHP (274 AB)CIN plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	56
10	AUTO STARTTroy JohnstonRF · 4% own	vs BAL · TBD	szn .331 xwOBAL15: 1.027 OPS (30 PA)L14 contact +2.2 (.419 xwOBAcon, 16 BBE)usually bats 7th (×0.95)fills OF needbeats 5 of 8 eligible startersSP: TBDCOL plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	56

Tiers vs YOUR lineup tonight — median starter 55, worst Randy Arozarena (19). AUTO START = beats the median eligible starter.

TBD starter = neutral SP + split legs until the probable posts (refresh upgrades it). Splits need 30+ AB vs that hand. IL bats are excluded; bats who rarely start against tonight's hand are dropped. Doubleheaders: legs average the ends he plays, and everyday bats get up to a ×1.50 volume boost. Lineup slot scales the score by expected PAs from the bat's usual spot (leadoff ×1.12 … 9-hole ×0.90, modal over the last ~10 played days) — his typical order, not today's card, since that posts after waivers run.

🎯 FA Hitters — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Ryan Jeffers

1Lars NootbaarLF · Ari · 2.7%HEATER

Heat 91/99 on trusted 26-BBE sample, .514 xwOBAcon; last-7 production confirms the signal.

Heat 91 · 26 BBE · ATC 69 PA · 2 HR · 1 SB · 0.245 · L7 0.333 · 2 HR · sim +0.0 pts

2Mickey Gasper

C · Bos · 4.9% · HEATER

Heat 90/99 on 25 BBE, .601 xwOBAcon; .556/.423 recent production is real, not noise.

Heat 90 · 25 BBE · ATC 9 PA · 0 HR · 0 SB · 0.225 · L7 0.556 · 2 HR · sim +0.0 pts

3Drew Gilbert

RF · SF · 0.7% · HEATER

Heat 86/99 on 22 BBE, .536 xwOBAcon; 7 R last 7 days aids MIZ's thin SB/AVG buffer zones.

Heat 86 · 22 BBE · ATC 70 PA · 1 HR · 1 SB · 0.228 · L7 0.294 · 1 HR · sim +0.0 pts

4Colt Keith

1B · Det · 5.2% · HEATER

Heat 84/99 on trusted 17-BBE sample, 94.3 EV/.473 xwOBAcon; production lag is the buy-low trigger.

Heat 84 · 17 BBE · ATC 98 PA · 3 HR · 1 SB · 0.259 · L7 0.0 · 0 HR · sim +0.1 pts

5Xander Bogaerts

SS · SD · 18.6% · BEST VALUE

Best RoS PA/projection of the pool; 3 SB helps live SB category with everyday job secured.

ATC 103 PA · 2 HR · 3 SB · 0.259 · L7 0.167 · 0 HR · sim +0.2 pts

Passed on: Tyler Stephenson has a live bat (2 HR, .364 last 7) but only a 10-BBE flare below the trust threshold and 0 SB contribution offers nothing for MIZ's only contested category.

💪 Hitter List Rankings

PL Top 150 hitters · your bats + top FAs.

On Hitter List · 17 yours · 8 FAs

Rank	Hitter	MLB	Pos	Chg	AVG	xwOBA	HR	SB	RoS	Chu’s Take
16	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	DH	+3	.244	.366	40	3	127
18	Randy Arozarena	SEA	OF	-	.268	.347	20	20	123
21	Miguel Vargas	CHW	1B/3B	+19	.249	.391	29	13	114	Miguel Vargas has returned to the levels we saw early this summer and that really revs my engine. He’s one of those players who has shown…
36	Yandy Díaz	TB	1B	+3	.303	.355	20	3	123
46	Zach Neto	LAA	SS	+11	.236	.306	23	18	110	Zach Neto has been a monster over the last nine games, with 17 hits, 18 combined runs and RBI (a seven RBI night helps), and seven extra-…
59	Jac Caglianone	KC	1B/OF	+13	.284	.362	23	6	107	Jac Caglianone still hits a lot of grounders, but not quite as many as before (the rolling 15-game rate is a hair below 50%) and the stri…
72	Ty France	SD	1B	+12	.287	.331	19	1	106
77	Royce Lewis	MIN	1B/2B/3B	-15	.233	.313	13	14	104	Royce Lewis is streaky. We just gotta deal with that.
85	Cole Carrigg	COL	SS/OF	-22	.261	.324	6	8	68	The strikeouts have creeped up on Cole Carrigg , up to 32% over his last 11 games (which is, conveniently, exactly 50 plate appearances).…
109	Mickey Gasper	BOS	C	+UR	.278	.360	5	0	94	Mickey Gasper — Fantastic mustache, first of all. Second of all, the batted ball data suggests what’s happening of late is very real, tho…
115	Kaelen Culpepper	MIN	SS	+UR	.313	.315	3	0	91	Kaelen Culpepper — Culpepper puts a lot of balls in play and it’s working out so far. The BABIP Gods can be cruel, though. The 55 point g…
119	Rafael Flores Jr.	PIT	C/1B	+UR	.222	.345	7	0	83
135	Henry Bolte	ATH	OF	+UR	.273	.304	6	14	91	Henry Bolte is leading off again and should get some games in Sacramento soon, if you need a streamer.
140	Lawrence Butler	ATH	OF	+UR	.229	.317	12	10	89
145	Tyler Stephenson	CIN	C	-33	.250	.337	14	0	98
146	Ryan Jeffers	MIN	C	-29	.270	.350	10	1	118
148	Andruw Monasterio	BOS	2B/SS	-26	.248	.299	6	4	92
149	Dylan Crews	WSH	OF	-35	.220	.315	10	8	88
150	Luis Rengifo	SD	2B/3B/OF	-24	.240	.304	4	6	87
TS	Bryce Eldridge	SF	1B	—	.261	.354	15	1	99	Bryce Eldridge (1B, SFG) — Power prospects can often take a while to really shine.
TS	Jordan Lawlar	Ari	3B/OF	—	.271	.311	3	4	89	Jordan Lawlar (3B/OF, ARI) — I do not love that he’s sat against two of the three righties the D-Backs have faced, nor the strikeouts. He…
TS	Pedro Ramirez	ChC	2B/3B	—	.285	.311	4	7	91	Pedro Ramirez (2B/3B, CHC) — Hitting well when he plays, which is not very often.
TS	Walker Jenkins	Min	OF	—	.222	.324	0	1	92	Walker Jenkins (OF, MIN) — Jenkins will get the call today after a white-hot month in the triple-A. He’s worth a scoop in most leagues, E…
UR	James Wood	Wsh	OF	—	.265	.419	30	17	129	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Ralphy Velazquez	Cle	1B	—	—	—	—	—	83	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.

🔥 Heat Board

Hottest ACTIVE free-agent bats by contact quality, 8/17–8/30 · Heat = percentile vs all MLB bats over the same window (xwOBAcon 30 · EV 20 · Brl 20 · HH 15 · K 10 · BB 5) · min 15 BBE to qualify (smaller samples live in the HM rail) · IL excluded.

Lars Nootbaar

LF · Ari · 2.7% own · xwOBAcon .514 · EV 93.3 · Brl 19.2% · 26 BBE

▲ .077 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.233	6	27	29	2
L14	.310	3	10	5	0

Mickey Gasper

C · Bos · 4.9% own · xwOBAcon .601 · EV 91.0 · Brl 24.0% · 25 BBE

▲ .145 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.278	5	19	17	0
L14	.423	5	12	6	0

Drew Gilbert

RF · SF · 0.7% own · xwOBAcon .536 · EV 93.2 · Brl 18.2% · 22 BBE

▼ .027 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.239	8	36	43	1
L14	.212	2	7	8	0

Andres Chaparro

1B · Wsh · 0.6% own · xwOBAcon .419 · EV 92.4 · Brl 21.7% · 23 BBE

▲ .077 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.246	9	33	29	0
L14	.323	2	4	6	0

Colt Keith

1B · Det · 5.2% own · xwOBAcon .473 · EV 94.3 · Brl 11.8% · 17 BBE

▼ .111 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.259	9	32	46	5
L14	.148	0	0	2	0

Brett Baty

3B · NYM · 2.6% own · xwOBAcon .506 · EV 91.2 · Brl 18.8% · 16 BBE

▲ .142 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.222	8	40	45	5
L14	.364	0	2	1	0

Justin Foscue

2B · Tex · 0.2% own · xwOBAcon .449 · EV 91.2 · Brl 19.0% · 21 BBE

▲ .038 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.258	9	25	20	0
L14	.296	2	4	4	0

Hao-Yu Lee

3B · Det · 1.4% own · xwOBAcon .381 · EV 93.2 · Brl 10.0% · 30 BBE

▲ .004 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.266	7	33	26	2
L14	.270	1	5	6	1

Colton Cowser

CF · Bal · 1.9% own · xwOBAcon .439 · EV 94.0 · Brl 8.7% · 23 BBE

▲ .056 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.225	13	36	38	8
L14	.281	2	3	4	0

Brady House

3B · Wsh · 0.8% own · xwOBAcon .362 · EV 94.2 · Brl 8.0% · 25 BBE

▼ .011 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.237	10	37	35	2
L14	.226	1	6	4	0

Honorable mention · hottest L7 (8/24–8/30), not yet on the board · tiny samples — peek, don't trust

Drew Cavanaugh

C · SF

.627 xwOBAcon

10 BBE · .222 L7

Lawrence Butler

RF · Oak

.477 xwOBAcon

11 BBE · .400 L7

Ezequiel Tovar

SS · Col

.480 xwOBAcon

11 BBE · .313 L7

Michael Conforto

LF · ChC

.618 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .417 L7

Tyler Stephenson

C · Cin

.507 xwOBAcon

10 BBE · .364 L7

Rafael Flores Jr.

1B · Pit

.460 xwOBAcon

12 BBE · .143 L7

🎯 FA Pitchers — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Sandy Alcantara

1Dylan SmithRP · SF · 0.4%BEST VALUE

Highest roto sim (+0.9), confirmed closer role, 3 projected SV attacks #3 saves rank directly.

Supp 41 · 13 BBE · ATC 10.0 IP · 1 W · 9 K · 3.97 · 1.33 · 3 SV · Closer · sim +0.9 pts

2Andrew Kittredge

RP · Bal · 1.9% · CATEGORY FIT

Second-best roto sim (+0.7), confirmed closer role, 2 projected SV bolsters saves cushion.

Supp 33 · 17 BBE · ATC 10.0 IP · 1 W · 10 K · 3.87 · 1.21 · 2 SV · Closer · sim +0.7 pts

3Grayson Rodriguez

SP · LAA · 2.8% · HEATER

86th-percentile suppression on trusted 37-BBE sample; +0.2 sim; elite contact suppression overrides middling ATC.

Supp 86 · 37 BBE · ATC 23.0 IP · 2 W · 23 K · 4.30 · 1.31 · sim +0.2 pts

4Calvin Faucher

RP · Mia · 0.8% · CATEGORY FIT

Confirmed closer role, +0.5 sim, adds SV with clean-enough ratios to protect ERA/WHIP #1 ranks.

Supp 68 · 11 BBE · ATC 10.0 IP · 1 W · 10 K · 3.96 · 1.39 · 1 SV · Closer · sim +0.5 pts

5Hayden Wesneski

SP · Hou · 6.9% · UPSIDE

74th-percentile suppression on 23 BBE needs corroboration, but +0.2 sim and GS cap slack justify the stream.

Supp 74 · 23 BBE · ATC 25.0 IP · 2 W · 22 K · 4.40 · 1.26 · sim +0.2 pts

Passed on: Clay Holmes has the cleanest L14 suppression among SPs (67th percentile, 38 BBE trusted) and a Pitcher List rank of #11, but his roto sim is dead zero and the WHIP of 1.33 risks bleeding MIZ's razor-thin lead in both ratio categories against a field already within striking distance.

⚾ Pitcher List Rankings

PL Top 100 SP · your arms + top FAs.

On Pitcher List · 6 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Pitcher	MLB	Chg	ERA	xERA	K/9	RoS	Pollack’s Take
1	Jacob Misiorowski	MIL	-	1.73	2.00	13.2	3.32	Like a base set Charizard, Misiorowski’s not gonna stop being dope.
9	Blake Snell	LAD	+7	2.42	2.09	12.5	3.42	#HotSnellSummer is in full swing.
10	Dylan Cease	TOR	-1	2.33	2.65	13.0	3.45	Like a perfect burger without the condiments to hit all your macros, Cease gives you everything except for a stable WHIP due to his infla…
20	Kyle Harrison	MIL	+8	2.79	3.24	11.1	4.12	With a dominant outing, he muted our concerns, but Harrison’s still displaying decreased velocity and not commanding as well as he did in…
22	Eury Pérez	MIA	-4	3.44	3.72	9.8	3.87	Pérez has the stuff to be an ace, but there’s polishing to do in the command and game plan departments to unlock his full potential.
30	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	-4	3.46	3.61	6.6	4.19	Baseball’s premier innings eater hasn’t ruined his appetite.
38	Jacob Lopez	ATH	+6	4.82	3.41	8.7	4.63	It’s the 2025 hot streak all over again. Enjoy the ride, ya’ll!
39	Dustin May	MIL	-	4.69	4.19	8.5	4.09	May got Singled Out in a disastrous performance, but his stuff is still dope, and his new situation is ideal. Higher win chance, great de…
40	Walbert Ureña	LAA	-	2.94	3.43	8.7	4.54	Armed with upper-90s heaters and one of the best changeups in baseball, Ureña has hit few speed bumps. If that developing sweeper becomes…
43	Andrew Painter	PHI	+UR	5.95	4.58	7.8	4.78	From off The List to inside the Top 50, Painter has stolen our hearts with an improved heater (97+ mph with 17-18″ iVB) and emphasis on r…
45	Peter Lambert	HOU	-4	3.66	3.54	8.8	4.58	Lambert’s stumble last time was a product of being Singled Out . He’s been reliable all year, but we should be recognizing that Holly is …
46	Jared Jones	PIT	-8	4.83	3.80	10.3	3.99	The stuff is top-tier, but he’s still shaking off the Tommy John surgery rust with his command and the tight leash the Pirates have on hi…
54	Joey Cantillo	CLE	-8	3.70	3.96	9.6	4.05	Efficiency is a problem, but Cantillo is doing everything we want. More curveballs, faster fastballs, and supportive cutters. Throw more …
56	Shane Bieber	TOR	+14	4.37	5.93	7.1	4.19	Bieber is back in business. His heater looked awesome in The Trop, and his offspeed pitches are being the CSW monsters they need to be to…
58	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	-	3.51	3.75	6.2	4.60	Despite what the line suggests, Pfaadt’s last start wasn’t an end to his Vargas Rule . It was a textbook Careful, Icarus with a three-run…
59	Christian Scott	NYM	+1	3.80	4.02	10.7	3.94	Scott has been happy to show us his floor, but the stuff is still there to propel him up The List at a moment’s notice. It’s felt a littl…

🔒 Closer Chart

Save targets · roles + regression flags.

🚨 Closer Tier Changes (vs. yesterday)

COLOR SHIFT Miami Marlins: Calvin Faucher → Calvin Faucher ( → blue) FA — ADD
COLOR SHIFT New York Mets: Kodai Senga → Kodai Senga (magenta → ) rostered
COLOR SHIFT Philadelphia Phillies: Jhoan Duran → Jhoan Duran (magenta → ) rostered

BLUEEntrenched closer (highest leverage)GREENNext man up / committee pieceYELLOWSetup, 8th-inning leverageORANGESpeculative / lower priorityMAGENTAHigh-upside future / multi-inning

	Pitcher	Tm	Role	SV	SVHD	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K/9	Rtg / Own
Yours on the chart
—	Andrés Muñoz	Seattle Mariners	CL	24	24	48.3	4.28	1.22	3.31	14.3	5.0 · —
—	Louis Varland	Toronto Blue Jays	CL	31	36	68.7	1.18	0.98	2.18 ↑	11.0	5.0 · —
—	Justin Martinez	Arizona Diamondbacks	FU	0	0	3.7	0.00	1.09	3.24 ↑	9.8	1.0 · —
Top 5 FA closers (by team rating)
	Andrew Kittredge b2b	Baltimore Orioles	CL	8	17	42.3	3.19	1.37	3.94	7.4	4.0 · 2%
	Juan Morillo	Arizona Diamondbacks	CL	2	19	53.3	2.19	1.01	2.25	10.5	1.0 · 3%
	Calvin Faucher	Miami Marlins	CL	2	16	57.7	3.90	1.34	3.72	10.0	1.0 · 1%
	Dylan Smith	San Francisco Giants	CL	3	10	29.7	3.34	1.31	3.56	11.5	1.0 · 0%
	Orlando Ribalta	Washington Nationals	CL	2	14	42.0	3.86	1.24	3.77	8.6	1.0 · 0%

ERA cell: green <3.00 · red >4.50. xERA arrow: ↓ ERA likely to fall (buy) · ↑ ERA likely to rise (sell). Triggers when |xERA−ERA| ≥ 1.00.

✂️ Cut List

Drop priority · value, form, pedigree, role.

52	Royce Lewis 3B · Min low TV (17); cold last 7d sim cost ~0	TV 17 Rd 13
38	Justin Martinez RP · Ari low TV (17); BUT fresh-callup upside; BUT strong RoS (3.46 ERA) sim −0.09% win if cut	TV 17 UFDA
20	Ryan Jeffers C · Min mid TV (45); BUT top-tier keeper; BUT young breakout signal sim cost ~0	TV 45 UFDA
14	Kyle Harrison SP · Mil mid TV (60); UFDA — easy to drop; BUT top-tier keeper sim cost ~0	TV 60 UFDA
11	Sandy Alcantara SP · Mia BUT solid keeper sim cost ~0	TV 72 Rd 14

Higher score = drop sooner — top 5 by score, and only 8+ reaches the board, so the number has no ceiling and is only comparable within this list. The sim line is a roto-sim marginal (cut vs. keep on one shared set of draws), not a measured cost. Pedigree + named closers shielded.

🌱 Stash List

PL's top prospects · grab them cheap.

Hitters

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 23: Top 10 Hitting Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + PSS + PFV + age + 40-man + path.

23 available — 2 yours

W. Jenkins YOURS

OF · MIN · AAA · 21 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

14·18·.319

R. Velazquez YOURS

1B/C · CLE · AA · 20 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

28·2·.293

J. Tibbs III

OF · LAD · AAA · 23 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

27·8·.295

L. Montes

OF · SEA · AAA · 21 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

38·8·.249

S. Walcott

3B/SS · TEX · AA · 23 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

6·8·.313

M. Arroyo

SS · SEA · AAA · 21 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

18·16·.281

S. Thompson

OF · COL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

12·16·.298

Z. Hope

OF · DET · AA · 21 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

26·23·.283

M. Anderson

2B · DET · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

16·5·.307

B. Davidson

OF · SFG · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

September

Szn

26·19·.281

J. Melton

OF · TB · AAA · 25 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

7·26·.284

C. Cannarella

OF · MIA · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

13·21·.332

R. Ward

LF · LAD · AAA · 28 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

20·7·.251

S. King

SS/2B/3B · WSN · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

19·14·.316

E. Salas

C · SDP · AAA · 20 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

September

Szn

10·17·.296

C. Ingle

C · CLE · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

18·2·.287

P. Harber

3B · SFG · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

'27

Szn

17·4·.281

J. Made

SS · MIL · AA · 19 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

13·35·.270

H. Mendez

OF · MIN · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

12·4·.278

Y. Morales

3B · WSN · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

25·6·.286

J. Long

1B · CHC · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

13·3·.276

K. Alderman

OF · MIA · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

18·10·.259

D. Crisantes

2B/3B · ARI · AAA · 21 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

9·0·.294

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

Pitchers

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 23: Top 10 Pitching Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + L3 quality + FV + age + 40-man + path.

27 available

L. Perales

SP · WSN · AAA · 23 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

100K·3.94

H. Smith

SP · CHW · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

August 1st

Szn

103K·3.76

B. Mautz

SP · STL · AAA · 24 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

99K·4.12

C. Seymour

SP · SFG · AAA · 27 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

86K·3.95

R. Snelling

SP · MIA · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

46K·2.38

J. Tong

SP · NYM · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

133K·4.46

R. Sloan

SP · nearly ready

PSS

100

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

117K·3.50

T. Bremner

SP · LAA · AA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

92K·4.08

T. Johnson

SP · TBR · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

84K·2.80

O. Murphy

SP · ATL · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

119K·3.95

M. Bratt

SP · ARI · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

81K·3.46

D. Davalillo

SP · TEX · AAA · 24 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

91K·5.01

M. Forret

SP · BAL · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

121K·3.83

C. Crow

SP · MIL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

97K·3.82

A. Kelly

SP · PIT · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

71K·4.55

J. Ritchie

SP · ATL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

118K·3.88

T. McDougal

SP · CHW · AAA · 23 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

47K·4.75

B. Garrett

SP · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

June 1st

Szn

105K·3.95

G. Wood

SP · PHI · AA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

124K·4.40

C. Dana

SP · LAA · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

72K·5.90

J. Wenninger

SP · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

110K·4.23

M. Ullola

SP · HOU · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

95K·4.35

T. Gibson

SP · BAL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

98K·5.13

B. Hopkins

SP · TBR · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

115K·5.40

K. Curtis

SP · PIT · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

113K·4.48

D. Sandlin

SP · CHW · MLB · 25 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

88K·3.46

L. Braun

SP · ATL · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

104K·3.64

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

🔭 11 not a 2026 factor — Liam Doyle · Bryce Mayer · Anthony Eyanson · Jamie Arnold · Joseph Dzierwa · Christian Zazueta · Jaxon Wiggins · Tyson Hardin · Jonathan Santucci · Jurrangelo Cijntje · Karson Milbrandt

💼 Trades

Buy-low targets · league trade history.

Top Buy-Lows

Rebound candidates · suggested offers.

Hitters

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Trent Grisham CF · NYY · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.3σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.213 / xBA 0.245 · xwOBA 0.339	30%	114 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Royce Lewis 3B + Bryce Eldridge 1B · two-piece package (TV 42 vs target 37)
📈 BUY-LOW	Juan Soto RF · NYM · GARR · jregarris +1.1σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.283 / xBA 0.298 · xwOBA 0.421	100%	159 wRC+	≈ 0.1%	Kyle Schwarber DH · comparable value (TV 100 vs target 100)
📈 BUY-LOW	JJ Bleday CF · Cin · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.3σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.217 / xBA 0.246 · xwOBA 0.350	24%	105 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 24 vs target 27)
📈 BUY-LOW	Heriberto Hernandez LF · Mia · FRAN · francisw789 +1.2σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.235 / xBA 0.251 · xwOBA 0.353	10%	99 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Royce Lewis 3B · comparable value (TV 17 vs target 23)
📈 BUY-LOW	Ronald Acuna Jr. RF · Atl · GoOs · My Best Guys +1.1σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.236 / xBA 0.256 · xwOBA 0.363	98%	136 wRC+	≈ 0.1%	Blake Snell SP + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 80 vs target 87)
↑ mild buy	Taylor Ward LF · Sea · GoOs · My Best Guys +0.6σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.230 / xBA 0.243 · xwOBA 0.337	60%	118 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Jac Caglianone RF + +$4 FAAB · comparable value (TV 52 vs target 60)
↑ mild buy	Dominic Canzone RF · Sea · GARR · jregarris +0.7σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.256 / xBA 0.271 · xwOBA 0.357	12%	114 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Walker Jenkins CF + Bryce Eldridge 1B · two-piece package (TV 29 vs target 34)
↑ mild buy	Kyle Stowers LF · Mia · KNIG · TKHOO +0.7σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.243 / xBA 0.233 · xwOBA 0.331	27%	111 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 24 vs target 27)
↑ mild buy	Brandon Nimmo LF · Tex · DORN · Lambertmt48 +0.5σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.262 / xBA 0.279 · xwOBA 0.356	67%	119 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Royce Lewis 3B + Bryce Eldridge 1B · two-piece package (TV 42 vs target 45)
📈 BUY-LOW	Mike Trout OF · LAA · KNIG · TKHOO +1.4σ buy-low · OF — fits a need · BA 0.239 / xBA 0.251 · xwOBA 0.379	94%	128 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Sandy Alcantara SP · comparable value (TV 72 vs target 77)

Pitchers

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Kodai Senga SP · NYM · KRTZ · FratSkins +1.3σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 7.50 vs xERA 5.10	10%	3.96 ERA	≈ 0.1%	Ralphy Velazquez 1B · comparable value (TV 2 vs target 4)
📈 BUY-LOW	Kade Anderson SP · Sea · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.5σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.50 vs xERA 2.27	30%	4.60 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Royce Lewis 3B + Bryce Eldridge 1B · two-piece package (TV 42 vs target 42)
↑ mild buy	Freddy Peralta SP · TB · KNIG · TKHOO +0.7σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 5.11 vs xERA 3.96	69%	4.01 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Royce Lewis 3B + Bryce Eldridge 1B · two-piece package (TV 42 vs target 43)
↑ mild buy	Bryce Miller SP · Sea · BLOB · crenshawh19 +0.6σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.12 vs xERA 3.17	33%	4.10 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Jac Caglianone RF · comparable value (TV 52 vs target 48)

League History

Completed trades · frozen grade at the deal + live grade now.

Side	Sent	At deal	Now	Trend
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Andy Pages	A- +7	A+ +44	▲ up
Camp MVP	Pete Crow-Armstrong	C -7	F -44	▼ down
Team Knighton ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Team Knighton	Matthew Boyd	F -22	F -22
Camp MVP	Kenley Jansen	A+ +22	A+ +22
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Worst2First 2026-08-10
Miz-waukee’s Best	Charlie Condon, Payton Tolle	A+ +50	A+ +35	▼ down
Worst2First	Dylan Cease	F -50	F -35	▲ up
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Dorn and Associates LLC 2026-08-05
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Travis Bazzana, George Lombard Jr., Nolan McLean	A+ +144	A+ +106	▼ down
Dorn and Associates LLC	Jackson Chourio, Jhoan Duran, Brice Turang, David Bednar	F -144	F -106	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-07-31
Miz-waukee’s Best	Samuel Basallo, Kade Anderson	A- +8	A+ +32	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine	Blake Snell	C -8	F -32	▼ down
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Team Knighton 2026-07-23
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Jo Adell, Jacob deGrom	F -49	F -63	▼ down
Team Knighton	Trea Turner	A+ +49	A+ +63	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine ⇄ Miz-waukee’s Best 2026-07-19
Ramirez Against the Machine	Sandy Alcantara	F -42	F -68	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best	Josh Jung	A+ +42	A+ +68	▲ up
I need Buck Showalter ⇄ Hit the Damn Ball You Bums 2026-06-19
I need Buck Showalter	Nasim Nunez	A+ +28	B +1	▼ down
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Justin Wrobleski	F -28	B -1	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ The Boys of Summer 2026-06-12
Miz-waukee’s Best	Chandler Simpson	A +10	A- +7	▼ down
The Boys of Summer	$30 FAAB	D -10	C -7	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-05-01
Miz-waukee’s Best	Kenley Jansen	—	A- +7
Camp MVP	$30 FAAB	A- +3	C -7	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-04-22
Miz-waukee’s Best	Nathan Eovaldi, $70 FAAB	—	F -15
Ramirez Against the Machine	Jac Caglianone	A+ +60	A+ +15	▼ down

🔻 Sell-High — My Roster

Surface line outrunning the underlying skill — trade-value peaks. σ = his surface-stat z-score minus his Statcast-skill z-score, both against the league reference for his side — bigger σ = further ahead of the skill. Pair with Buy-Low Targets.

Verdict	Player	Own	Surface vs expected	Contact	2027 keeper
↓ SHOP	Henry Bolte RF · Oak 0.72σ sell-high · RF · BA 0.271 / xBA 0.241 · xwOBA 0.304 — test the market, don't force it	4%	BA 0.271 / xBA 0.241 +.030 wOBA 0.323 / xwOBA 0.304 +.019	HH 48.2% · Brl/PA 4.2%	25th · +2 rds vs mkt
↓ SHOP	Yandy Diaz 1B · TB 0.63σ sell-high · 1B · BA 0.304 / xBA 0.287 · xwOBA 0.355 — test the market, don't force it	93%	BA 0.304 / xBA 0.287 +.017 wOBA 0.365 / xwOBA 0.355 +.010	HH 47.6% · Brl/PA 5.4%	7th · +1 rd vs mkt
HOLD — KEEPER PRICE	Louis Varland RP · Tor 0.42σ sell-high · RP · ERA 1.18 vs xERA 2.18 — only move for keeper-grade return	87%	ERA 1.18 / xERA 2.18 -1.00	Brl 4.2% allowed	22nd · +16 rds vs mkt

👥 Your Roster

Your roster · news + buy/sell signals.

News (last 24h)

Player news · last 24h.

No news on your roster in the last 24 hours.

Leverage Buys/Sells

Buy/sell windows · surface vs. underlying.

Hitters

Player	Pos	MLB	BA	xBA	wOBA	xwOBA	Brl%	Own%	Signal
James Wood IL10	LF	Wsh	0.265	0.275	0.395	0.419	100.0	99.1	📈 BUY-LOW
Miguel Vargas	3B	ChW	0.249	0.269	0.369	0.391	92.0	95.3	📈 BUY-LOW
Kyle Schwarber	DH	Phi	0.244	0.238	0.379	0.366	98.0	99.5	📈 BUY-LOW
Bryce Eldridge	1B	SF	0.261	0.254	0.353	0.354	77.0	8.7	↑ mild buy
Zach Neto	SS	LAA	0.236	0.208	0.328	0.306	76.0	61.3	fair
Jac Caglianone	RF	KC	0.284	0.283	0.359	0.362	93.0	60.3	fair
Randy Arozarena	LF	Sea	0.268	0.259	0.364	0.347	49.0	93.8	fair
Yandy Diaz	1B	TB	0.303	0.287	0.365	0.355	46.0	92.8	↓ mild fade
Cole Carrigg	CF	Col	0.261	0.256	0.341	0.324	—	13.4	fair
Ryan Jeffers	C	Min	0.270	0.250	0.365	0.350	72.0	39.5	fair
Henry Bolte	RF	Oak	0.273	0.241	0.323	0.304	41.0	4.1	↓ mild fade
Kaelen Culpepper	SS	Min	0.313	0.245	0.370	0.315	—	6.9	fair
Royce Lewis	3B	Min	0.233	0.242	0.306	0.313	71.0	15.8	↑ mild buy
Walker Jenkins	CF	Min	0.222	0.203	0.407	0.324	20.0	9.8	—
Jordan Lawlar	3B	Ari	0.271	0.255	0.340	0.311	—	3.0	fair
Ralphy Velazquez	1B	Cle	—	—	—	—	—	0.8	—
Pedro Ramirez	3B	ChC	0.285	0.269	0.347	0.311	—	6.9	fair

Pitchers

Pitcher	Pos	MLB	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K-BB%	xwOBA-a	Brl%-a	Own%	Signal
Blake Snell	SP	LAD	26.0	2.42	1.08	2.09	22.0	0.225	1.7	89.2	↑ mild buy
Andres Munoz	RP	Sea	48.3	4.28	1.22	3.31	27.9	0.283	9.4	80.2	↑ mild buy
Joe Ryan IL15	SP	Min	125.7	4.08	1.15	3.48	21.2	0.290	10.5	89.8	fair
Jacob Misiorowski	SP	Mil	151.0	1.73	0.75	2.00	32.7	0.220	3.6	99.6	fair
Sandy Alcantara	SP	Mia	189.7	3.46	1.19	3.61	11.5	0.295	5.1	91.2	fair
Dylan Cease	SP	Tor	150.3	2.33	1.05	2.65	25.3	0.254	5.1	99.3	fair
Eury Perez	SP	Mia	130.7	3.44	1.13	3.72	16.2	0.299	9.3	80.2	fair
Kyle Harrison	SP	Mil	103.3	2.79	1.12	3.24	23.6	0.280	6.8	79.0	fair
Louis Varland	RP	Tor	68.7	1.18	0.98	2.18	24.7	0.230	4.2	86.6	↓ mild fade
Justin Martinez	RP	Ari	3.7	0.00	1.09	3.24	6.2	0.280	0.0	1.6	—

📰 MLB News — Top Fantasy Stories

🔒 Keepers — 2027 Slate

Peter's model (additive): rounds-saved (cost arbitrage spine) + current skill + career-grade pedigree + sample stability + Statcast over/under-performance trend, with age-decline (33+), closer/RP, and top-30 talent adjustments. Heavy on bargain-hunting.
Claude's model (multiplicative dynasty index): EFV(2027) = (3 + skill + upside) × age_mult × pos_mult; score = EFV − cost_replacement − mookie-lock. Compounds age curve and position scarcity.
Sorted by consensus rank (average of both models). MLB-inactive players surfaced in 🚑 Return Watch below.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict	Notes
1.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	21st	#1 (+24.4)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51	UFDA-G FV 55
2.0	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	22nd	#2 (+21.4)	#2 (+27.1)	S · $27
3.5	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	25th	#3 (+19.8)	#4 (+15.8)	A · $16	UFDA
4.0	Dylan Cease	SP · 30yo	4th	#5 (+13.0)	#3 (+17.5)	A · $17
4.5	Eury Perez	SP · 23yo	20th	#4 (+16.3)	#5 (+13.9)	A · $14	UFDA-G
6.5	Cole Carrigg	CF · 22yo	25th	#6 (+12.2)	#7 (+6.6)	B · $7	UFDA FV 40
7.0	Randy Arozarena	LF · 31yo	4th	#8 (+10.4)	#6 (+11.7)	A · $12
8.0	Zach Neto	SS · 25yo	10th	#7 (+10.7)	— (+4.5)	C · $4
8.5	Sandy Alcantara	SP · 30yo	12th	— (+8.7)	#8 (+6.0)	B · $6

NEW UFDA cap: Peter 2/3 · Claude 2/3 · BOTH = top 8 in both models. Peter only = his model values cost surplus more; Claude only = mine values projection / position scarcity more.

🚑 Return watch — would be keeper-eligible if they get MLB action this year. Rank shown is hypothetical (where they'd slot if eligible).

Player	Pos · Age	Cost	Peter (if elig.)	Claude (if elig.)
Walker Jenkins	CF · 20yo	25th	#12 (+0.6)	#10 (+2.7)
Ralphy Velazquez	1B · 19yo	25th	#12 (-2.0)	#10 (+1.4)

Updated Mon Aug 31 · 4:22 AM ET

🌍 League-Wide Top Keepers

Top 10 keepers · all 12 teams · both models. Yours in green.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	Team	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict
1.0	Jordan Walker	RF · 24yo	GARR	25th	#1 (+29.4)	#1 (+56.1)	S · $56
2.5	Jesus Luzardo	SP · 28yo	KNIG	21st	#2 (+28.9)	#3 (+42.1)	S · $42
3.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	MIZ	21st	#4 (+24.4)	#2 (+50.8)	S · $51
4.0	Bryan Baker	RP · 31yo	DORN	25th	#3 (+25.0)	#5 (+38.7)	S · $39
7.0	Nolan McLean	SP · 23yo	DORN	20th	#7 (+22.4)	#7 (+32.7)	S · $33
7.5	Cam Schlittler	SP · 24yo	KRTZ	19th	— (+19.5)	#4 (+40.8)	S · $41
8.0	Jose Soriano	SP · 27yo	BLOB	25th	#5 (+24.3)	— (+21.2)	S · $21
8.5	Logan Henderson	SP · 23yo	PEYT	25th	#6 (+22.5)	— (+18.5)	S · $18
8.5	Foster Griffin	SP · 30yo	GoOs	25th	#9 (+22.0)	#8 (+29.9)	S · $30
8.5	Wilyer Abreu	RF · 27yo	KNIG	15th	— (+19.4)	#6 (+37.2)	S · $37
9.5	Taj Bradley	SP · 25yo	GoOs	25th	#8 (+22.2)	— (+19.8)	S · $20
10.0	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	MIZ	22nd	— (+21.4)	#9 (+27.1)	S · $27
10.5	Payton Tolle	SP · 22yo	FRST	25th	#10 (+21.9)	— (+18.5)	S · $18
10.5	Drew Rasmussen	SP · 30yo	THAR	8th	— (+13.6)	#10 (+26.0)	S · $26

Updated Mon Aug 31 · 4:22 AM ET

🏚️ Keeper Cupboards

Every team's six best keepers · shade = dual-model consensus value. Cupboard score weights the top four heavily (the slots that get kept), keepers 5–8 taper. 100 = league's best cupboard.

Team	K1	K2	K3	K4	K5	K6	Cupboard
1MIZ	MisiorowskiR21	VarlandR22	VargasR25	CeaseR4	PerezR20	CarriggR25	100
2KNIG	LuzardoR21	AbreuR15	MartinezR25	RodriguezR25	deGromR13	EdwardsR10	99
3GoOs	GriffinR25	BradleyR25	ReynoldsR10	RafaelaR8	WachaR25	WardR5	85
4GARR	WalkerR25	MessickR18	HancockR25	GoreR8	GrayR7	BuschR11	83
5DORN	BakerR25	McLeanR20	WarrenR25	NimmoR5	KingR6	WalkerR9	77
6BLOB	SorianoR25	LopezR20	ScottR25	SuarezR12	BurgerR19	ArandaR14	73
7FRAN	LatzR25	CavalliR21	BurnsR5	BradishR21	McClanahanR17	HarrisR25	71
8KRTZ	SchlittlerR19	BurkeR25	IIR5	McGonigleR17	StewartR10	ColeR11	70
9PEYT	HendersonR25	SanchezR9	WooR8	CameronR18	NolaR16	CruzR1	68
10THAR	RasmussenR8	O'BrienR17	WilliamsR11	MizeR19	HolmesR25	SkenesR1	68
11FRST ▼ thin	TolleR25	WheelerR8	ElderR25	GelofR25	SkubalR1	RogersR9	57
12RAGE ▼ thin	BledayR25	JumpR25	CamineroR5	ImanagaR9	BibeeR14	TorresR17	56

The bottom two rows are your trade marks — thin cupboards pay up for keepable pieces.

data: snap 0h · BP 6d · PL 6d · HL 3d · PSS 0h · BR 0h · FG 19h · proj 19h · closer 0h · oyster 15h · AAA-sc 6h · cookie ok