Miz-waukee’s Best — The Brandon League

Last updated Thursday, September 03 · 10:21 AM ET

🔎 Find a Player

Any player in the league universe · tap a result for the card.

☕ Morning Briefing

🏆 MIZ holds 1st with 105.0 roto points, a comfortable 21.0 pts clear of 2nd-place Hit the Damn Ball You Bums — gain +1 roto point by closing a 0.001 AVG gap on GoOs, and keep an eye on SV: KRTZ is just 2 saves back.

⚡ Massive day from your guys: Henry Bolte torched the Rangers going 3-for-4 with 2 HR, 4 RBI, 2 R, and a stolen base, while Cole Carrigg added a quiet 3-for-5, 1 R, 1 RBI, and Dylan Cease dealt 6 IP, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K for the win against Cleveland — the kind of SP line that moves categories. The one blemish: Eury Perez got knocked around for 6 ER in 4.2 IP. Make sure Sandy Alcantara is active today.

📊 Two names showing identical early contact heat on the wire — TJ Friedl and Ryan Vilade each posting a 91/99 contact heat score over their last 7 (8 BBE, 0.658 xwOBAcon) — but both are small-sample signals not yet confirmed by the Heat Board, so treat them as early reads rather than actionable edges.

📰 Jacob Misiorowski had a rough one per the columns — 5 ER over 4 IP with 4 walks — worth monitoring, though it's one start. Elsewhere around the league, Ronald Acuña Jr. became the fastest player (904 games) to reach both 200 HR and 200 SB — a historical footnote with fantasy implications if his power-speed combo is fully re-engaged. Adley Rutschman is dealing with an elbow issue and hasn't played this week; not expected to hit the IL but worth watching if you're facing a catcher crunch. Riley Cornelio (Nationals) and Raymond Burgos (Red Sox) were both recalled and carry available (FA) tags if your pitching needs a speculative add.

ELIGIBILITYK. Schwarber 1B 7/10P. Ramirez 1B 4/10

Your standing

1stof 12

105.0 roto pts +21.0 clear of 2nd

+0.5 pts vs last update

Top Gaps

SB (7.0) W (7.0)

categories below mid-pack

Score change since last update

W +0.5

🎯 Category Pressure

Category ranks vs. the league.

Rank →

Δ to #1

941

1024

🥇

269

299

🥇

RBI

876

912

🥇

130

134

139

197

+63

AVG

.255

.256

.257

.259

+0.003

1174

1199

1335

+136

+12

+11

ERA

3.40

3.32

🥇

WHIP

1.17

1.12

🥇

📅 Yesterday's MIZ Box Scores (2026-09-02)

Loading box scores…

🏥 IL Rehab Tracker

IL players · rehab game logs.

Joe Ryan (SP) IL15 on rehab
AAA2026-09-01 · 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K, 0 BB

On the IL, no rehab games yet: Spencer Schwellenbach (IL60 · watch).

📊 League Activity (last 24h)

All adds, drops, and trades across the 12 teams.

Team	Move
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	− Jacob Webb
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	+ Cal Quantrill \| − Jackson Jobe
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	+ Jacob Lopez \| − Steven Cruz
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	+ Yohandy Morales
Phil Swift's Flex Seal	− Tyler Mahle
Miz-waukee’s Best	− Andrew Kittredge

🏆 League Standings

Current roto points · 10,000-sim projected finish. FAAB = acquisition budget remaining.

100.0% to win the league · proj finish 1.0 · 102.3 roto pts

#	Team	Pts	FAAB	Win%	Proj Pts	Range	Proj Rk
1	MIZ Miz-waukee’s Best	105.0	$0	100.0%	102.3	99–105	1.0
2	FRAN Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	84.0	$60	0.0%	85.3	80–90	2.4
3	KRTZ Photogenic Nick Kurtz	79.0	$20	0.0%	82.9	77–89	2.9
4	PEYT Phil Swift's Flex Seal	76.0	$29	0.0%	79.8	74–85	3.6
5	GoOs I need Buck Showalter	70.0	$170	0.0%	69.6	64–75	5.4
6	BLOB Camp MVP	67.0	$168	0.0%	69.2	66–72	5.5
7	THAR Phil Mickeltits	62.5	$176	0.0%	58.9	54–64	7.6
8	KNIG Team Knighton	62.0	$137	0.0%	60.3	56–65	7.3
9	GARR The Boys of Summer	49.0	$155	0.0%	49.3	45–54	9.2
10	DORN Dorn and Associates LLC	45.5	$89	0.0%	46.5	43–51	9.8
11	RAGE Ramirez Against the Machine	40.0	$163	0.0%	34.9	32–39	11.9
12	FRST Worst2First	40.0	$154	0.0%	40.9	37–45	10.9

10,000 sims · fixed seed · noise CV talent 0.12 / idio 0.06 / team-cat 0.08 · assumes ATC rest-of-season rates

Your categories · projected roto points

R 12.0HR 12.0RBI 11.9SB 7.0AVG 9.2W 6.5SV 9.0K 10.9ERA 11.9WHIP 12.0

Winnable — push here: SB, AVG, W, SV.

🚨 Today's Streaming Board

156 of 200 GS · should be 174 · 18 behindBehind pace — stream aggressively

044 left · ~12.8/wk to cap · proj 179200

⏳ BP's post is late — Verdict pill is running on our score + Pitcher List for now (BP joins the top-2 once it posts).

Your starters + top FA streamers

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Sandy Alcantara	@ KC	START	—	5.6	#3	Straightforward auto-start; matchup looks easy.
Jack Perkins	@ SEA	START⚠ opener	—	6.5	—	average SEA lineup, friendly park, hot recent form
Jake Bennett	@ BAL	DART	—	6.6	#12	New pitch separation vs. NYY; optimistic this sticks.
J.T. Ginn	@ SEA	DART	—	—	#11	Less sustainable than Quantrill; lower confidence in continuation.
Brandon Young	vs BOS	SIT	—	4.3	#13	Four-seamer favored vs. RHP-vulnerable lineup; borderline tier.
Blade Tidwell	@ PIT	SIT⚠ opener	—	4.3	#16	Avoid even vs. Pittsburgh; not viable.
Quinn Mathews	@ LAD	SIT	—	4.3	#17	Personal trust but matchup kills it.
Luis Castillo	@ HOU	SIT	—	2.2	#15	Chronically unreliable; high floor-hit frequency.
Carmen Mlodzinski	vs. SFG	SIT	—	—	#18	Too short, too little quality to justify a start.

Openers filtered: Lake Bachar

Your staff: 3.32 ERA / 1.12 WHIP · GS 156/200 — Behind pace — stream aggressively. Verdict = the best 2 of BP · our score · Pitcher List, averaged (low outlier dropped); before BP posts it's our score + PL. ⚠ = our matchup score dissented — eyeball that one. Tap a MIZ score for the reasoning.

Tomorrow · top 5 FA · Fri 9/4 · BP not out yet, so pill = our score + Pitcher List

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Keider Montero	@ CLE	START	—	6.6	—	soft CLE lineup, hot recent form, strong skills
Walker Buehler	vs NYY	START	—	5.9	—	average NYY lineup, hot recent form
Jared Jones	vs LAA	START	—	5.7	—	soft LAA lineup, short leash, strong skills
Zebby Matthews	@ CWS	START	—	5.7	—	average CWS lineup, hot recent form
Andrew Sears	@ CLE	DART	—	5.4	—	soft CLE lineup

Quinn Mathews@ LAD LHP4.3

LAD off .745 OPS · tough matchupskill 80 pctlL21: 5.52 ERA / 1.5 WHIPL14 contact +1.2 (.339 xwOBAcon-against, 35 BBE)~4.7 IP/startexp 4.63 ERA ↑ hurts (you 3.32)exp 1.54 WHIP ↑ hurts (you 1.12)GS 156/200 · Behind pace — stream aggressively

matchup

skill

form

win

park

📼 Streamer Report Card

Does the Streaming Board actually work? Every pick it showed, frozen at pick time and graded off the real box score. Two scoreboards below: first our own calls — the Verdict ladder and MIZ (our matchup score, 0–10) — then the outside lists behind them, BP (RelieverRecon's daily BP Streamers post) and PL (Pitcher List's tier ranking). Grades are recomputed from raw lines on every build — the rubric can change, the history follows.

Last 30d · 355 starts graded over 29 days · GOOD+ 48% · BLOWUP 17% · agg ERA 4.34 · WHIP 1.33 · 4.5 K/start · 379 picks logged, 14 never started, 10 awaiting a box score — not graded

Grade mix · all 355 graded starts

GEM 64 GOOD 106 OK 124 BLOWUP 61

GEM6+ IP, ≤1 ER · or 6+ IP, 8+ K, ≤2 ERGOODquality start (6+ IP, ≤3 ER) · or 5+ IP, ≤2 EROKheld the line without earning GOODBLOWUP5+ ER · or under 4 IP with 4+ ERGOOD+ = GEM + GOOD. A pick whose starter never took the ball grades to nothing and leaves every rate below.

Cohort	n	GOOD+	BLOWUP	ERA
Q1 — Do our own calls work? · Verdict ladder + MIZ bands · live board rows only, nothing backfilled
Verdict · AUTO START	26	69%	15%	3.49
Verdict · START	47	57%	11%	3.98
Verdict · DART	95	47%	14%	4.52
Verdict · SIT	187	43%	21%	4.47
MIZ ≥ 5.0	117	61%	14%	3.67
MIZ 3.5–4.9	139	45%	19%	4.73
MIZ < 3.5	82	37%	20%	4.85
All live board picks	355	48%	17%	4.34
Q1 read — GOOD+ falls 69% · 57% · 47% · 43% down the rungs, but BLOWUP does not rise with it, and MIZ sorts: GOOD+ falls 61% · 45% · 37% from the top band down.
Q2 — Which outside list earns the weight? · BP and PL graded on their own published lists · mostly rebuilt from git
PL · Auto Start	26	65%	19%	4.12
PL · Probably Start	40	58%	12%	3.99
PL · Questionable Start	97	51%	16%	4.44
PL · Do Not Start	168	44%	20%	4.39
BP · Auto	11	36%	9%	4.74
BP · Likely	38	47%	16%	4.18
All graded picks	355	48%	17%	4.34
Q2 read — against the 48% all-picks baseline, PL's top tiers clear it (65% · 58%) and BP's top tiers are too thin to call (36% · 47% on n=11 · n=38).

Rows are overlapping lenses on the same picks, not a partition — one start can be a PL Auto Start and a Verdict SIT at once, so they never sum to the headline; each group is read against its own baseline row.

⚠ Dissent check — the override is ahead so far — 62% GOOD+ on n=8. Splits are picks the board started over our MIZ sit-call (vs 48% for all live picks).

Calibration — do our numbers mean anything? · full season, 2026-06-29→2026-09-02 · 929 graded picks · MIZ on 389, BP on 230, Verdict on 410

The ladder above asks whether the tiers sort. This asks the harder question: is the number a probability — when the board says 7, do 70% of those starts come back GOOD+? Bins are equal-count and merge until every one clears n=15; the walk-forward rows are scored against a model that only ever saw earlier days.

Score bin	n	mean	GOOD+	95% CI
MIZ score → P(GOOD+) · our matchup score, 0–10 · live rows only · n=389
MIZ 0.5–3.3	91	2.6	40%	30%–50%
MIZ 3.4–3.9	68	3.7	44%	33%–56%
MIZ 4.0–4.8	85	4.4	49%	39%–60%
MIZ 4.9–5.5	70	5.2	56%	44%–67%
MIZ 5.6–8.9	75	6.4	63%	51%–73%
All MIZ-scored picks	389	—	50%	—
BP score → P(GOOD+) · RelieverRecon's published rating · includes git-backfilled rows · n=230
BP 4.6–6.6	48	6.1	35%	23%–50%
BP 6.7–7.3	44	7.0	52%	38%–66%
BP 7.4–7.7	47	7.5	45%	31%–59%
BP 7.8–8.4	47	8.1	47%	33%–61%
BP 8.5–10.0	44	9.1	43%	30%–58%
All BP-scored picks	230	—	44%	—
Verdict tier → P(GOOD+) · the consensus call itself · live rows only
AUTO START	29	—	69%	51%–83%
START	53	—	58%	45%–71%
DART	108	—	48%	39%–57%
SIT	220	—	45%	39%–52%

Out-of-sample	n	value	vs
Walk-forward probability · logistic on MIZ, refit daily on earlier days only · from 2026-08-05 · 28 days
Brier — our probability	325	0.246	lower is better
Brier — flat base rate to date	325	0.255	we win by 0.009
Brier — verdict-tier history	325	0.255	we win by 0.009
Log loss — our probability	325	0.684	lower is better
ECE — our probability	325	0.065	5 equal-count bins
ECE bins · predicted p vs what actually happened
said 32%–47%	65	38%	off by 4%
said 47%–51%	65	38%	off by 11%
said 51%–56%	65	42%	off by 12%
said 56%–60%	65	58%	off by 1%
said 60%–74%	65	60%	off by 5%
Verdict — usable with caveats: ECE 0.065 over n=325 out-of-sample picks (≤0.03 well calibrated · ≤0.07 usable with caveats); edges the flat base rate on Brier (0.246 vs 0.255, a thin margin; log-loss ~coin-flip).

🔥 Today's Hitter Streamers

Top 10 FA bats for today's slate · score = split vs SP hand (35%) + SP softness (35%) + bat quality (15%) + trailing 15 days (10%) + park (5%) · facing an elite arm fades the score hard (feast on weak pitchers).

#	Hitter	Matchup	Why	Legs	Score
1	AUTO STARTMickey GasperC · 11% own	@ BAL · Young RHP	szn .369 xwOBAL15: 1.548 OPS (42 PA)L14 contact +6.0 (.557 xwOBAcon, 25 BBE)usually bats 2nd (×1.10)beats 1 of 1 eligible startersYoung .321 allowed · avg SP0.98 OPS vs RHP (125 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	92
2	AUTO STARTJustin Foscue2B · 0% own	vs TB · McClanahan LHP	szn .329 xwOBAL15: 0.942 OPS (37 PA)L14 contact +3.0 (.436 xwOBAcon, 26 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)beats 4 of 4 eligible startersMcClanahan .315 allowed · avg SP0.989 OPS vs LHP (115 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	82
3	STARTRyan ViladeRF · 0% own	@ TEX · Quantrill RHP	szn .337 xwOBAL14 contact +6.0 (.579 xwOBAcon, 14 BBE)usually bats 2nd (×1.10)fills OF needbeats 3 of 7 eligible startersshort side vs RHP — 37% of ABQuantrill .309 allowed · avg SP0.735 OPS vs RHP (76 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	55
4	STARTNathaniel Lowe1B · 2% own	vs TOR · Soriano RHP	szn .332 xwOBAL15: 0.468 OPS (55 PA)L14 contact -2.1 (.323 xwOBAcon, 37 BBE)usually bats 5thbeats 1 of 3 eligible startersSoriano .325 allowed · avg SP0.84 OPS vs RHP (294 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	52
5	STARTJesus SanchezRF · 1% own	@ CLE · Bibee RHP	szn .329 xwOBAusually bats 5thfills OF needbeats 2 of 4 eligible startersBibee .319 allowed · avg SP0.794 OPS vs RHP (230 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	52
6	AUTO STARTIsiah Kiner-FalefaSS · 0% own	@ BAL · Young RHP	szn .309 xwOBAbeats 2 of 3 eligible startersYoung .321 allowed · avg SP0.795 OPS vs RHP (83 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	51
7	STARTJoey LoperfidoLF · 0% own	vs CWS · Castillo RHP	szn .297 xwOBAfills OF needbeats 2 of 4 eligible startersCastillo .341 allowed · soft SP0.721 OPS vs RHP (88 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	50
8	STARTNick Sogard1B · 10% own	@ BAL · Young RHP	szn .319 xwOBAL15: 0.869 OPS (61 PA)L14 contact -0.2 (.366 xwOBAcon, 38 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)beats 2 of 4 eligible startersYoung .321 allowed · avg SP0.694 OPS vs RHP (125 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	49
9	STARTAnthony Seigler3B · 0% own	@ BAL · Young RHP	szn .316 xwOBAusually bats 9th (×0.90)beats 1 of 3 eligible startersYoung .321 allowed · avg SP0.797 OPS vs RHP (112 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	47
10	CONSIDERAndrew Vaughn1B · 4% own	@ CHC · Gausman RHP	szn .334 xwOBAL15: 0.883 OPS (37 PA)L14 contact -3.3 (.297 xwOBAcon, 24 BBE)usually bats 4th (×1.05)beats 0 of 3 eligible startersGausman .306 allowed · avg SP0.762 OPS vs RHP (159 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	46

Tiers vs YOUR lineup tonight — median starter 55, worst Pedro Ramirez (9). AUTO START = beats the median eligible starter.

TBD starter = neutral SP + split legs until the probable posts (refresh upgrades it). Splits need 30+ AB vs that hand. IL bats are excluded; bats who rarely start against tonight's hand are dropped. Doubleheaders: legs average the ends he plays, and everyday bats get up to a ×1.50 volume boost. Lineup slot scales the score by expected PAs from the bat's usual spot (leadoff ×1.12 … 9-hole ×0.90, modal over the last ~10 played days) — his typical order, not today's card, since that posts after waivers run.

🎯 FA Hitters — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Kyle Schwarber

1Xander BogaertsSS · SD · 18.6%BEST VALUE

Highest roto sim delta (+0.3); SB eligible, solid projection, AVG-safe at .259

ATC 87 PA · 2 HR · 3 SB · 0.259 · L7 0.263 · 0 HR · sim +0.3 pts

2Lars Nootbaar

LF · Ari · 2.8% · HEATER

85/99 heat, trusted 26-BBE sample, .389 L7 BA with 2 HR; real PT in Arizona

Heat 85 · 26 BBE · ATC 64 PA · 2 HR · 1 SB · 0.245 · L7 0.389 · 2 HR · sim +0.0 pts

3Sean Murphy

C · Atl · 0.9% · HEATER

79/99 heat, 19 BBE sufficient; .429/.429 L7 with 2 HR, 6 RBI screams real contact

Heat 79 · 19 BBE · ATC 45 PA · 2 HR · 0 SB · 0.216 · L7 0.429 · 2 HR · sim +0.0 pts

4Andres Gimenez

2B · Tor · 8.2% · CATEGORY FIT

+0.2 sim, 3 projected SB chips at MIZ's live SB gap of 5; everyday PT confirmed

ATC 83 PA · 2 HR · 3 SB · 0.242 · L7 0.308 · 0 HR · sim +0.2 pts

5Mickey Gasper

C · Bos · 10.7% · HEATER

87/99 heat on 25 BBE; .393 L14, 4 HR; limited PA ceiling but legitimate contact surge

Heat 87 · 25 BBE · ATC 27 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.225 · L7 0.357 · 2 HR · sim +0.0 pts

Passed on: Patrick Bailey's 87/99 heat and .476 L14 BA are eye-popping but only 16 BBE barely crosses threshold and 58 PA projection limits volume upside materially.

💪 Hitter List Rankings

PL Top 150 hitters · your bats + top FAs.

On Hitter List · 17 yours · 9 FAs

Rank	Hitter	MLB	Pos	Chg	AVG	xwOBA	HR	SB	RoS	Chu’s Take
16	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	DH	+3	.240	.362	40	3	127
18	Randy Arozarena	SEA	OF	-	.272	.349	22	20	123
21	Miguel Vargas	CHW	1B/3B	+19	.249	.388	29	13	113	Miguel Vargas has returned to the levels we saw early this summer and that really revs my engine. He’s one of those players who has shown…
36	Yandy Díaz	TB	1B	+3	.302	.355	21	3	123
46	Zach Neto	LAA	SS	+11	.236	.306	23	19	109	Zach Neto has been a monster over the last nine games, with 17 hits, 18 combined runs and RBI (a seven RBI night helps), and seven extra-…
59	Jac Caglianone	KC	1B/OF	+13	.282	.358	23	6	107	Jac Caglianone still hits a lot of grounders, but not quite as many as before (the rolling 15-game rate is a hair below 50%) and the stri…
72	Ty France	SD	1B	+12	.292	.330	20	1	106
77	Royce Lewis	MIN	1B/2B/3B	-15	.235	.316	14	14	103	Royce Lewis is streaky. We just gotta deal with that.
85	Cole Carrigg	COL	SS/OF	-22	.262	.320	6	8	68	The strikeouts have creeped up on Cole Carrigg , up to 32% over his last 11 games (which is, conveniently, exactly 50 plate appearances).…
106	Luis Robert Jr.	NYM	OF	+UR	.222	.317	10	2	95
109	Mickey Gasper	BOS	C	+UR	.283	.369	7	0	94	Mickey Gasper — Fantastic mustache, first of all. Second of all, the batted ball data suggests what’s happening of late is very real, tho…
115	Kaelen Culpepper	MIN	SS	+UR	.300	.312	3	0	91	Kaelen Culpepper — Culpepper puts a lot of balls in play and it’s working out so far. The BABIP Gods can be cruel, though. The 55 point g…
119	Rafael Flores Jr.	PIT	C/1B	+UR	.209	.340	7	0	83
135	Henry Bolte	ATH	OF	+UR	.274	.310	8	15	91	Henry Bolte is leading off again and should get some games in Sacramento soon, if you need a streamer.
143	Alejandro Kirk	TOR	C	+UR	.271	.304	8	1	110
145	Tyler Stephenson	CIN	C	-33	.249	.338	14	0	98
146	Ryan Jeffers	MIN	C	-29	.276	.357	13	1	118
148	Andruw Monasterio	BOS	2B/SS	-26	.248	.299	6	4	92
149	Dylan Crews	WSH	OF	-35	.216	.311	10	8	87
150	Luis Rengifo	SD	2B/3B/OF	-24	.240	.304	4	6	—
TS	Bryce Eldridge	SF	1B	—	.263	.357	15	1	99	Bryce Eldridge (1B, SFG) — Power prospects can often take a while to really shine.
TS	Jordan Lawlar	Ari	3B/OF	—	.276	.315	4	4	89	Jordan Lawlar (3B/OF, ARI) — I do not love that he’s sat against two of the three righties the D-Backs have faced, nor the strikeouts. He…
TS	Pedro Ramirez	ChC	2B/3B	—	.285	.306	4	7	91	Pedro Ramirez (2B/3B, CHC) — Hitting well when he plays, which is not very often.
TS	Walker Jenkins	Min	OF	—	.150	.258	1	1	92	Walker Jenkins (OF, MIN) — Jenkins will get the call today after a white-hot month in the triple-A. He’s worth a scoop in most leagues, E…
UR	James Wood	Wsh	OF	—	.265	.418	30	17	129	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Ralphy Velazquez	Cle	1B	—	—	—	—	—	83	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.

🔥 Heat Board

Hottest ACTIVE free-agent bats by contact quality, 8/20–9/2 · Heat = percentile vs all MLB bats over the same window (xwOBAcon 30 · EV 20 · Brl 20 · HH 15 · K 10 · BB 5) · min 15 BBE to qualify (smaller samples live in the HM rail) · IL excluded.

Mickey Gasper

C · Bos · 10.7% own · xwOBAcon .557 · EV 89.9 · Brl 20.0% · 25 BBE

▲ .110 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.283	7	21	21	0
L14	.393	4	7	7	0

Patrick Bailey

C · Cle · 0.8% own · xwOBAcon .643 · EV 91.3 · Brl 12.5% · 16 BBE

▲ .270 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.206	8	32	25	3
L14	.476	2	7	4	1

Amed Rosario

3B · NYY · 0.6% own · xwOBAcon .436 · EV 94.8 · Brl 11.1% · 18 BBE

▲ .112 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.238	10	31	26	2
L14	.350	0	3	3	1

Lars Nootbaar

LF · Ari · 2.8% own · xwOBAcon .448 · EV 92.8 · Brl 15.4% · 26 BBE

▲ .069 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.231	6	27	29	2
L14	.300	2	8	4	0

Elias Diaz

C · Tex · 0.1% own · xwOBAcon .461 · EV 95.0 · Brl 29.4% · 17 BBE

▲ .010 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.230	6	24	17	0
L14	.240	1	4	3	0

Hao-Yu Lee

3B · Det · 1.3% own · xwOBAcon .434 · EV 94.3 · Brl 12.5% · 32 BBE

▼ .036 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.269	8	36	29	2
L14	.233	2	6	6	1

Luis Robert Jr.

CF · Bal · 14.3% own · xwOBAcon .431 · EV 91.5 · Brl 19.2% · 26 BBE

▲ .035 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.222	10	25	25	2
L14	.257	3	6	6	0

Drew Gilbert

RF · SF · 0.6% own · xwOBAcon .452 · EV 91.6 · Brl 15.4% · 26 BBE

▼ .034 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.234	8	36	44	1
L14	.200	2	7	9	0

Sean Murphy

C · Atl · 0.9% own · xwOBAcon .508 · EV 90.6 · Brl 15.8% · 19 BBE

▲ .151 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.242	3	8	8	0
L14	.393	3	8	7	0

Brett Baty

3B · NYM · 2.5% own · xwOBAcon .452 · EV 90.9 · Brl 17.6% · 17 BBE

▲ .152 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.223	8	43	45	5
L14	.375	0	5	1	0

Honorable mention · hottest L7 (8/27–9/2), not yet on the board · tiny samples — peek, don't trust

TJ Friedl

CF · Cin

.658 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .333 L7

Ryan Vilade

RF · TB

.658 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .222 L7

John Peck

SS · Det

.443 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .222 L7

Thomas Saggese

2B · StL

.622 xwOBAcon

11 BBE · .583 L7

Tyler Stephenson

C · Cin

.502 xwOBAcon

13 BBE · .300 L7

Eli White

RF · Bos

.511 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .333 L7

🎯 FA Pitchers — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Andres Munoz

1Juan MorilloRP · Ari · 2.7%HEATER

94th-percentile suppression on trusted closer role; elite xwOBAcon screams real-saves upside

Supp 94 · 12 BBE · ATC 8.0 IP · 0 W · 8 K · 3.83 · 1.35 · 1 SV · Closer · sim -0.4 pts

2Robert Gasser

SP · Mil · 3.3% · BEST VALUE

Best ERA/WHIP SP projection available; 3 GS volume fits aggressive stream mandate safely

Supp 76 · 40 BBE · ATC 18.0 IP · 1 W · 17 K · 4.16 · 1.25 · sim -0.5 pts

3Andrew Painter

SP · Phi · 14.7% · UPSIDE

50-BBE suppression at 88th percentile is trusted; 4 GS volume maximizes GS-cap room

Supp 88 · 50 BBE · ATC 18.0 IP · 1 W · 15 K · 4.78 · 1.39 · sim -0.5 pts

4Hayden Wesneski

SP · Hou · 13.5% · FLOOR

82nd-percentile suppression on 40 BBE is real; 3 GS with 4.40 ERA won't bleed ratios badly

Supp 82 · 40 BBE · ATC 20.0 IP · 1 W · 18 K · 4.40 · 1.26 · sim -0.5 pts

5Andrew Kittredge

RP · Bal · 3.7% · CATEGORY FIT

Closer role confirmed; 2 projected SV chips at rank-3 saves with 2-point cushion below

Supp 14 · 23 BBE · ATC 9.0 IP · 0 W · 8 K · 3.87 · 1.21 · 2 SV · Closer · sim -0.4 pts

Passed on: Dylan Smith has 3 projected saves and closer role but 34th-percentile suppression on a 15-BBE sample with 0.443 xwOBAcon is a ratio landmine for the ERA/WHIP leader.

⚾ Pitcher List Rankings

PL Top 100 SP · your arms + top FAs.

On Pitcher List · 6 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Pitcher	MLB	Chg	ERA	xERA	K/9	RoS	Pollack’s Take
1	Jacob Misiorowski	MIL	-	1.97	2.08	13.2	3.32	Like a base set Charizard, Misiorowski’s not gonna stop being dope.
9	Blake Snell	LAD	+7	2.42	2.10	12.5	3.42	#HotSnellSummer is in full swing.
10	Dylan Cease	TOR	-1	2.25	2.73	12.7	3.45	Like a perfect burger without the condiments to hit all your macros, Cease gives you everything except for a stable WHIP due to his infla…
20	Kyle Harrison	MIL	+8	3.45	3.52	10.9	4.12	With a dominant outing, he muted our concerns, but Harrison’s still displaying decreased velocity and not commanding as well as he did in…
22	Eury Pérez	MIA	-4	3.72	4.04	9.6	3.87	Pérez has the stuff to be an ace, but there’s polishing to do in the command and game plan departments to unlock his full potential.
30	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	-4	3.46	3.63	6.6	4.19	Baseball’s premier innings eater hasn’t ruined his appetite.
39	Dustin May	MIL	-	4.69	4.21	8.5	4.09	May got Singled Out in a disastrous performance, but his stuff is still dope, and his new situation is ideal. Higher win chance, great de…
40	Walbert Ureña	LAA	-	2.85	3.40	8.8	4.54	Armed with upper-90s heaters and one of the best changeups in baseball, Ureña has hit few speed bumps. If that developing sweeper becomes…
43	Andrew Painter	PHI	+UR	5.55	4.33	7.8	4.78	From off The List to inside the Top 50, Painter has stolen our hearts with an improved heater (97+ mph with 17-18″ iVB) and emphasis on r…
45	Peter Lambert	HOU	-4	3.66	3.60	8.9	4.58	Lambert’s stumble last time was a product of being Singled Out . He’s been reliable all year, but we should be recognizing that Holly is …
46	Jared Jones	PIT	-8	4.83	3.84	10.3	3.99	The stuff is top-tier, but he’s still shaking off the Tommy John surgery rust with his command and the tight leash the Pirates have on hi…
54	Joey Cantillo	CLE	-8	3.81	4.04	9.6	4.05	Efficiency is a problem, but Cantillo is doing everything we want. More curveballs, faster fastballs, and supportive cutters. Throw more …
56	Shane Bieber	TOR	+14	4.37	5.95	7.1	4.19	Bieber is back in business. His heater looked awesome in The Trop, and his offspeed pitches are being the CSW monsters they need to be to…
57	Tyler Mahle	ATL	-	4.25	4.18	8.7	4.10	Mahle’s command and velocity have been stellar since returning from the IL in late June. He’s got an even better situation pitching in At…
58	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	-	3.49	3.76	5.9	4.60	Despite what the line suggests, Pfaadt’s last start wasn’t an end to his Vargas Rule . It was a textbook Careful, Icarus with a three-run…
59	Christian Scott	NYM	+1	3.80	4.04	10.7	3.94	Scott has been happy to show us his floor, but the stuff is still there to propel him up The List at a moment’s notice. It’s felt a littl…

🔒 Closer Chart

Save targets · roles + regression flags.

BLUEEntrenched closer (highest leverage)GREENNext man up / committee pieceYELLOWSetup, 8th-inning leverageORANGESpeculative / lower priorityMAGENTAHigh-upside future / multi-inning

	Pitcher	Tm	Role	SV	SVHD	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K/9	Rtg / Own
Yours on the chart
—	Andrés Muñoz	Seattle Mariners	CL	24	24	50.3	4.29	1.19	3.27 ↓	14.5	5.0 · —
—	Louis Varland	Toronto Blue Jays	CL	31	36	68.7	1.18	0.98	2.19 ↑	11.0	5.0 · —
Top 5 FA closers (by team rating)
	Andrew Kittredge 2-of-3	Baltimore Orioles	CL	9	18	44.0	3.27	1.39	4.04	7.6	4.0 · 4%
	Jacob Webb X-rays - neg.	Chicago Cubs	CL	9	17	60.0	3.15	1.23	4.06	9.8	4.0 · 7%
	Steven Cruz HLR	Kansas City Royals	CL	6	11	51.7	4.35	1.26	4.18	9.8	3.5 · 1%
	Elvis Alvarado	The Athletics	CL	5	13	45.0	4.00	1.18	4.57	10.8	3.0 · 3%
	Juan Morillo	Arizona Diamondbacks	CL	3	20	55.3	2.11	1.05	2.30	10.4	3.0 · 3%

ERA cell: green <3.00 · red >4.50. xERA arrow: ↓ ERA likely to fall (buy) · ↑ ERA likely to rise (sell). Triggers when |xERA−ERA| ≥ 1.00.

✂️ Cut List

Drop priority · value, form, pedigree, role.

51	Royce Lewis 3B · Min low TV (18) sim cost ~0	TV 18 Rd 13
26	Kyle Harrison SP · Mil mid TV (44); cold last 7d; UFDA — easy to drop; BUT top-tier keeper sim cost ~0	TV 44 UFDA
18	Ryan Jeffers C · Min mid TV (36); BUT top-tier keeper; BUT young breakout signal sim cost ~0	TV 36 UFDA
15	Blake Snell SP · LAD BUT strong RoS (3.42 ERA) sim cost ~0	TV 80 Rd 8
11	Sandy Alcantara SP · Mia BUT solid keeper sim cost ~0	TV 72 Rd 14

Higher score = drop sooner — top 5 by score, and only 8+ reaches the board, so the number has no ceiling and is only comparable within this list. The sim line is a roto-sim marginal (cut vs. keep on one shared set of draws), not a measured cost. Pedigree + named closers shielded.

🌱 Stash List

PL's top prospects · grab them cheap.

Hitters

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 23: Top 10 Hitting Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + PSS + PFV + age + 40-man + path.

19 available — 1 yours

R. Velazquez YOURS

1B/C · CLE · AA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

28·2·.294

S. Thompson

OF · COL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

12·16·.298

J. Tibbs III

OF · LAD · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

27·8·.293

C. Cannarella

OF · MIA · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

14·21·.331

S. Walcott

3B/SS · TEX · AA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

8·8·.325

M. Anderson

2B · DET · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

16·5·.306

J. Melton

OF · TB · AAA · 25 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

7·26·.283

S. King

SS/2B/3B · WSN · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

19·14·.315

Z. Hope

OF · DET · AA · 21 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

27·24·.282

C. Ingle

C · CLE · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

18·2·.283

R. Ward

LF · LAD · AAA · 28 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

20·7·.251

H. Mendez

OF · MIN · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

12·4·.278

J. Long

1B · CHC · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

13·3·.274

K. Alderman

OF · MIA · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

18·10·.256

M. Arroyo

SS · SEA · AAA · 21 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

18·16·.280

B. Davidson

OF · SFG · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

September

Szn

26·19·.279

P. Harber

3B · SFG · AAA · 24 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

'27

Szn

17·4·.277

J. Made

SS · MIL · AA · 19 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

13·36·.270

D. Crisantes

2B/3B · ARI · AAA · 21 · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

blocked

Szn

9·0·.292

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

Pitchers

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 23: Top 10 Pitching Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + L3 quality + FV + age + 40-man + path.

27 available

H. Smith

SP · CHW · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

August 1st

Szn

103K·3.76

B. Mautz

SP · STL · AAA · 24 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

99K·4.37

L. Perales

SP · WSN · AAA · 23 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

102K·4.17

C. Seymour

SP · SFG · AAA · 27 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

87K·3.95

R. Snelling

SP · MIA · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

46K·2.38

R. Sloan

SP · nearly ready

PSS

100

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

117K·3.50

J. Tong

SP · NYM · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

133K·4.46

T. Bremner

SP · LAA · AA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

92K·4.08

T. Johnson

SP · TBR · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

84K·2.80

O. Murphy

SP · ATL · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

122K·3.74

M. Bratt

SP · ARI · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

81K·3.46

M. Forret

SP · BAL · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

121K·3.83

J. Ritchie

SP · ATL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

118K·3.88

B. Garrett

SP · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

June 1st

Szn

105K·3.95

T. McDougal

SP · CHW · AAA · 23 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

47K·4.75

D. Davalillo

SP · TEX · AAA · 24 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

94K·5.15

C. Dana

SP · LAA · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

80K·5.53

J. Wenninger

SP · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

110K·4.23

M. Ullola

SP · HOU · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

97K·4.29

A. Kelly

SP · PIT · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

71K·4.55

C. Crow

SP · MIL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

101K·3.74

T. Gibson

SP · BAL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

98K·4.98

B. Hopkins

SP · TBR · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

117K·5.34

D. Sandlin

SP · CHW · MLB · 25 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

88K·3.46

G. Wood

SP · PHI · AA · 22 · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

124K·4.40

K. Curtis

SP · PIT · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

113K·4.48

L. Braun

SP · ATL · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

104K·3.64

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

🔭 12 not a 2026 factor — Jamie Arnold · Bryce Mayer · Liam Doyle · Anthony Eyanson · Christian Zazueta · Daniel Eagen · Joseph Dzierwa · Tyson Hardin · Jaxon Wiggins · Jonathan Santucci · Jurrangelo Cijntje · Karson Milbrandt

💼 Trades

Buy-low targets · league trade history.

Top Buy-Lows

Rebound candidates · suggested offers.

Hitters

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Trent Grisham CF · NYY · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.3σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.211 / xBA 0.245 · xwOBA 0.337	26%	114 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Henry Bolte RF + Royce Lewis 3B · two-piece package (TV 22 vs target 27)
📈 BUY-LOW	Juan Soto RF · NYM · GARR · jregarris +1.2σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.281 / xBA 0.297 · xwOBA 0.422	100%	159 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Kyle Schwarber DH · comparable value (TV 100 vs target 100)
📈 BUY-LOW	JJ Bleday CF · Cin · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.2σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.222 / xBA 0.246 · xwOBA 0.350	23%	104 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Henry Bolte RF + Royce Lewis 3B · two-piece package (TV 22 vs target 27)
📈 BUY-LOW	Heriberto Hernandez LF · Mia · FRAN · francisw789 +1.3σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.232 / xBA 0.250 · xwOBA 0.356	11%	98 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 35 vs target 33)
↑ mild buy	Taylor Ward LF · Sea · GoOs · My Best Guys +0.7σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.227 / xBA 0.241 · xwOBA 0.335	59%	118 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Zach Neto SS · comparable value (TV 60 vs target 60)
↑ mild buy	Ronald Acuna Jr. RF · Atl · GoOs · My Best Guys +0.9σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.243 / xBA 0.252 · xwOBA 0.357	98%	136 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Blake Snell SP · comparable value (TV 80 vs target 86)
↑ mild buy	Dominic Canzone RF · Sea · GARR · jregarris +0.7σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.255 / xBA 0.269 · xwOBA 0.358	12%	114 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 35 vs target 34)
↑ mild buy	Kyle Stowers LF · Mia · KNIG · TKHOO +0.6σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.247 / xBA 0.234 · xwOBA 0.332	28%	111 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Henry Bolte RF + Royce Lewis 3B · two-piece package (TV 22 vs target 27)
📈 BUY-LOW	Corey Seager SS · Tex · PEYT · simplejack2k9 +1.5σ buy-low · SS — modest fit · BA 0.223 / xBA 0.248 · xwOBA 0.350	59%	130 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Jac Caglianone RF + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 52 vs target 58)
↑ mild buy	Jarren Duran LF · Bos · RAGE · glhoward40 +0.8σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.206 / xBA 0.237 · xwOBA 0.300	67%	101 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Jac Caglianone RF · comparable value (TV 52 vs target 57)

Pitchers

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Kodai Senga SP · NYM · KRTZ · FratSkins +1.2σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 7.36 vs xERA 5.09	10%	3.96 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Ralphy Velazquez 1B · comparable value (TV 2 vs target 4)
📈 BUY-LOW	Kade Anderson SP · Sea · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.5σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.50 vs xERA 2.28	31%	4.62 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B + +$4 FAAB · comparable value (TV 35 vs target 42)
📈 BUY-LOW	Jacob Lopez SP · Oak · FRAN · francisw789 +1.0σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.71 vs xERA 3.40	18%	4.63 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Henry Bolte RF + Royce Lewis 3B + +$4 FAAB · two-piece package (TV 22 vs target 29)
↑ mild buy	Freddy Peralta SP · TB · KNIG · TKHOO +0.7σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.96 vs xERA 3.90	73%	4.01 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Jac Caglianone RF + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 52 vs target 58)
↑ mild buy	Bryce Miller SP · Sea · BLOB · crenshawh19 +0.5σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.01 vs xERA 3.32	31%	4.10 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Kyle Harrison SP · comparable value (TV 44 vs target 48)

League History

Completed trades · frozen grade at the deal + live grade now.

Side	Sent	At deal	Now	Trend
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Andy Pages	A- +7	A+ +45	▲ up
Camp MVP	Pete Crow-Armstrong	C -7	F -45	▼ down
Team Knighton ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Team Knighton	Matthew Boyd	F -22	F -23
Camp MVP	Kenley Jansen	A+ +22	A+ +23
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Worst2First 2026-08-10
Miz-waukee’s Best	Charlie Condon, Payton Tolle	A+ +50	A+ +33	▼ down
Worst2First	Dylan Cease	F -50	F -33	▲ up
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Dorn and Associates LLC 2026-08-05
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Travis Bazzana, George Lombard Jr., Nolan McLean	A+ +144	A+ +106	▼ down
Dorn and Associates LLC	Jackson Chourio, Jhoan Duran, Brice Turang, David Bednar	F -144	F -106	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-07-31
Miz-waukee’s Best	Samuel Basallo, Kade Anderson	A- +8	A- +7
Ramirez Against the Machine	Blake Snell	C -8	C -7
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Team Knighton 2026-07-23
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Jo Adell, Jacob deGrom	F -49	F -63	▼ down
Team Knighton	Trea Turner	A+ +49	A+ +63	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine ⇄ Miz-waukee’s Best 2026-07-19
Ramirez Against the Machine	Sandy Alcantara	F -42	F -68	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best	Josh Jung	A+ +42	A+ +68	▲ up
I need Buck Showalter ⇄ Hit the Damn Ball You Bums 2026-06-19
I need Buck Showalter	Nasim Nunez	A+ +28	A+ +26
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Justin Wrobleski	F -28	F -26
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ The Boys of Summer 2026-06-12
Miz-waukee’s Best	Chandler Simpson	A +10	A- +7	▼ down
The Boys of Summer	$30 FAAB	D -10	C -7	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-05-01
Miz-waukee’s Best	Kenley Jansen	—	A- +7
Camp MVP	$30 FAAB	A- +3	C -7	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-04-22
Miz-waukee’s Best	Nathan Eovaldi, $70 FAAB	—	F -16
Ramirez Against the Machine	Jac Caglianone	A+ +60	A+ +16	▼ down

🔻 Sell-High — My Roster

Surface line outrunning the underlying skill — trade-value peaks. σ = his surface-stat z-score minus his Statcast-skill z-score, both against the league reference for his side — bigger σ = further ahead of the skill. Pair with Buy-Low Targets.

Verdict	Player	Own	Surface vs expected	Contact	2027 keeper
↓ SHOP	Henry Bolte RF · Oak 0.63σ sell-high · RF · BA 0.274 / xBA 0.246 · xwOBA 0.310 — test the market, don't force it	4%	BA 0.274 / xBA 0.246 +.028 wOBA 0.331 / xwOBA 0.310 +.021	HH 47.6% · Brl/PA 4.5%	25th · +2 rds vs mkt
↓ SHOP	Yandy Diaz 1B · TB 0.57σ sell-high · 1B · BA 0.302 / xBA 0.286 · xwOBA 0.355 — test the market, don't force it	93%	BA 0.302 / xBA 0.286 +.016 wOBA 0.365 / xwOBA 0.355 +.010	HH 47.7% · Brl/PA 5.5%	7th · +1 rd vs mkt
HOLD — KEEPER PRICE	Louis Varland RP · Tor 0.42σ sell-high · RP · ERA 1.18 vs xERA 2.19 — only move for keeper-grade return	87%	ERA 1.18 / xERA 2.19 -1.01	Brl 4.2% allowed	22nd · +16 rds vs mkt

👥 Your Roster

Your roster · news + buy/sell signals.

News (last 24h)

Player news · last 24h.

Jacob Misiorowski Brewers beat Cubs despite off night from Jacob Misiorowski
Thu 09-03 12:26 PM
Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski had a rare off night Wednesday against the Cubs, but Milwaukee overcame an early deficit to win a second straight game against its NL Central rival.
Royce Lewis Tigers down the Twins in extras
Thu 09-03 04:03 AM
Tigers down the Twins in extras
Jacob Misiorowski Chourio stars as the Brewers beat the Cubs 9-5 despite shaky start by Misiorowski
Thu 09-03 03:10 AM
— Jackson Chourio homered and the Milwaukee Brewers beat the Chicago Cubs 9-5 on Wednesday night, overcoming a shaky performance by Jacob Misiorowski.
Dylan Cease Guerrero drives in 5 runs, Blue Jays rout Guardians 11-0 to tighten AL wild-card race
Thu 09-03 01:34 AM
— Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit a three-run homer and had a season-high five RBI, Dylan Cease scattered four hits over six innings and the Toronto Blue Jays routed the Cleveland Guardians 11-0 on Wednesday night.
Henry Bolte Powers rout with two homers
Thu 09-03 12:00 AM
Bolte went 3-for-4 with a walk, two home runs, four RBI and a stolen base in Wednesday's 9-2 win over the Rangers.
Henry Bolte Bolte's first career multihomer game leads Athletics over Rangers 9-2
Wed 09-02 10:21 PM
— Henry Bolte had his first career multihomer game, Zack Gelof, Jonah Heim and Alika Williams also went deep, and the Athletics scored nine unanswered runs to beat the Texas Rangers 9-2 on Wednesday.

Leverage Buys/Sells

Buy/sell windows · surface vs. underlying.

Hitters

Player	Pos	MLB	BA	xBA	wOBA	xwOBA	Brl%	Own%	Signal
James Wood	LF	Wsh	0.265	0.276	0.394	0.418	100.0	99.0	📈 BUY-LOW
Miguel Vargas	3B	ChW	0.249	0.269	0.366	0.388	91.0	95.2	📈 BUY-LOW
Kyle Schwarber	DH	Phi	0.240	0.237	0.372	0.362	98.0	99.5	📈 BUY-LOW
Bryce Eldridge	1B	SF	0.263	0.258	0.354	0.357	78.0	10.6	↑ mild buy
Zach Neto	SS	LAA	0.236	0.210	0.328	0.306	76.0	61.8	fair
Jac Caglianone	RF	KC	0.282	0.280	0.356	0.358	92.0	61.6	fair
Yandy Diaz	1B	TB	0.302	0.286	0.365	0.355	48.0	92.7	↓ mild fade
Cole Carrigg	CF	Col	0.262	0.253	0.338	0.320	—	11.9	fair
Ryan Jeffers	C	Min	0.276	0.255	0.381	0.357	74.0	40.6	fair
Randy Arozarena	LF	Sea	0.272	0.261	0.367	0.349	54.0	93.9	fair
Henry Bolte	RF	Oak	0.274	0.246	0.331	0.310	47.0	4.0	↓ mild fade
Kaelen Culpepper	SS	Min	0.300	0.251	0.356	0.312	—	7.1	fair
Royce Lewis	3B	Min	0.235	0.243	0.309	0.316	74.0	14.7	↑ mild buy
Walker Jenkins	CF	Min	0.150	0.150	0.292	0.258	—	8.8	—
Jordan Lawlar	3B	Ari	0.276	0.255	0.355	0.315	—	2.8	fair
Ralphy Velazquez	1B	Cle	—	—	—	—	—	0.8	—
Pedro Ramirez DTD	3B	ChC	0.285	0.264	0.340	0.306	—	4.2	fair

Pitchers

Pitcher	Pos	MLB	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K-BB%	xwOBA-a	Brl%-a	Own%	Signal
Blake Snell	SP	LAD	26.0	2.42	1.08	2.10	22.0	0.225	1.7	89.4	↑ mild buy
Andres Munoz	RP	Sea	50.3	4.29	1.19	3.27	28.9	0.281	9.2	79.8	↑ mild buy
Joe Ryan IL15	SP	Min	125.7	4.08	1.15	3.50	21.2	0.290	10.5	89.4	fair
Jacob Misiorowski	SP	Mil	155.0	1.97	0.79	2.08	31.8	0.224	3.8	99.5	fair
Sandy Alcantara	SP	Mia	189.7	3.46	1.19	3.63	11.5	0.295	5.1	91.5	fair
Kyle Harrison	SP	Mil	107.0	3.45	1.20	3.52	22.6	0.291	7.7	69.5	fair
Dylan Cease	SP	Tor	156.3	2.25	1.04	2.73	25.1	0.257	5.1	99.3	fair
Eury Perez	SP	Mia	135.3	3.72	1.18	4.04	15.5	0.310	10.2	78.5	fair
Louis Varland	RP	Tor	68.7	1.18	0.98	2.19	24.7	0.230	4.2	86.5	↓ mild fade

📰 MLB News — Top Fantasy Stories

🔒 Keepers — 2027 Slate

Peter's model (additive): rounds-saved (cost arbitrage spine) + current skill + career-grade pedigree + sample stability + Statcast over/under-performance trend, with age-decline (33+), closer/RP, and top-30 talent adjustments. Heavy on bargain-hunting.
Claude's model (multiplicative dynasty index): EFV(2027) = (3 + skill + upside) × age_mult × pos_mult; score = EFV − cost_replacement − mookie-lock. Compounds age curve and position scarcity.
Sorted by consensus rank (average of both models). MLB-inactive players surfaced in 🚑 Return Watch below.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict	Notes
1.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	21st	#1 (+24.4)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51	UFDA-G FV 55
2.0	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	22nd	#2 (+21.4)	#2 (+27.1)	S · $27
4.0	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	25th	#3 (+17.8)	#5 (+13.3)	A · $13	UFDA
4.0	Bryce Eldridge	1B · 20yo	25th	#4 (+16.2)	#4 (+14.4)	A · $14	UFDA FV 55
4.5	Zach Neto	SS · 25yo	10th	#6 (+13.7)	#3 (+16.1)	A · $16
5.5	Henry Bolte	RF · 21yo	25th	#5 (+14.7)	#6 (+12.0)	A · $12	UFDA FV 40
7.0	Dylan Cease	SP · 30yo	4th	#7 (+12.0)	#7 (+11.7)	A · $12
8.5	Jac Caglianone	RF · 22yo	21st	#8 (+10.2)	— (+6.8)	B · $7	UFDA-G FV 55
8.5	Eury Perez	SP · 23yo	20th	— (+9.5)	#8 (+7.3)	B · $7	UFDA-G

NEW UFDA cap: Peter 3/3 · Claude 3/3 · BOTH = top 8 in both models. Peter only = his model values cost surplus more; Claude only = mine values projection / position scarcity more.

🚑 Return watch — would be keeper-eligible if they get MLB action this year. Rank shown is hypothetical (where they'd slot if eligible).

Player	Pos · Age	Cost	Peter (if elig.)	Claude (if elig.)
Ralphy Velazquez	1B · 19yo	25th	#17 (-2.0)	#13 (+1.4)

Updated Thu Sep 3 · 10:21 AM ET

🌍 League-Wide Top Keepers

Top 10 keepers · all 12 teams · both models. Yours in green.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	Team	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict
2.5	Jesus Luzardo	SP · 28yo	KNIG	21st	#1 (+27.9)	#4 (+33.4)	S · $33
2.5	Bryan Baker	RP · 31yo	DORN	25th	#2 (+25.1)	#3 (+38.7)	S · $39
2.5	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	MIZ	21st	#4 (+24.4)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51
5.5	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	MIZ	22nd	#6 (+21.4)	#5 (+27.1)	S · $27
6.0	Andy Pages	CF · 25yo	BLOB	20th	#5 (+22.1)	#7 (+24.0)	S · $24
6.0	Cam Schlittler	SP · 24yo	KRTZ	19th	#10 (+19.5)	#2 (+40.8)	S · $41
6.5	Nolan McLean	SP · 23yo	DORN	20th	#7 (+20.5)	#6 (+24.0)	S · $24
7.0	Jordan Walker	RF · 24yo	GARR	25th	#3 (+24.4)	— (+21.2)	S · $21
9.5	Jose Soriano	SP · 27yo	BLOB	25th	#8 (+20.3)	— (+17.1)	A · $17
9.5	Junior Caminero	3B · 22yo	RAGE	5th	— (+12.3)	#8 (+23.3)	S · $23
10.0	Ben Rice	1B · 27yo	DORN	20th	#9 (+20.2)	— (+13.9)	A · $14
10.0	Sal Stewart	1B · 21yo	KRTZ	10th	— (+12.2)	#9 (+22.4)	S · $22
10.5	Riley O'Brien	RP · 31yo	THAR	17th	— (+11.9)	#10 (+21.9)	S · $22

Updated Thu Sep 3 · 10:21 AM ET

🏚️ Keeper Cupboards

Every team's six best keepers · shade = dual-model consensus value. Cupboard score weights the top four heavily (the slots that get kept), keepers 5–8 taper. 100 = league's best cupboard.

Team	K1	K2	K3	K4	K5	K6	Cupboard
1MIZ	MisiorowskiR21	VarlandR22	VargasR25	EldridgeR25	NetoR10	BolteR25	100
2DORN	BakerR25	McLeanR20	RiceR20	BazzanaR25	PerdomoR21	AnthonyR18	86
3BLOB	PagesR20	SorianoR25	LopezR20	ScottR25	TaylorR25	LileR15	77
4KRTZ	SchlittlerR19	BengeR25	StewartR10	McGonigleR17	SanojaR25	BurkeR25	76
5KNIG	LuzardoR21	AbreuR15	MartinezR25	deGromR13	JensenR20	RomanoR25	69
6FRAN	LatzR25	McCarthyR25	CavalliR21	AntonacciR25	BradishR21	BurnsR5	64
7THAR	RasmussenR8	O'BrienR17	MarshR25	WilliamsR11	Jr.R16	KeaschallR21	61
8GoOs	GoodmanR21	GriffinR25	BradleyR25	BurlesonR9	GomezR25	MeidrothR25	53
9GARR	WalkerR25	MessickR18	DinglerR22	GrayR7	SimpsonR9	BuschR11	50
10RAGE	EwingR25	CamineroR5	BasalloR19	JonesR25	HerreraR20	EovaldiR6	49
11PEYT ▼ thin	SanchezR9	HendersonR25	WooR8	WetherholtR13	MayoR17	CruzR1	43
12FRST ▼ thin	TolleR25	WheelerR8	RouppR25	MuncyR18	SkubalR1	RumfieldR25	34

The bottom two rows are your trade marks — thin cupboards pay up for keepable pieces.

data: snap 2h · BP 9d · PL 9d · HL 6d · PSS 11h · BR 0h · FG 0h · proj 0h · closer 0h · oyster 1h · AAA-sc 11h · cookie ok