Miz-waukee’s Best — The Brandon League

Last updated Wednesday, September 09 · 12:04 PM ET

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Any player in the league universe · tap a result for the card.

☕ Morning Briefing

🏆 MIZ holds 1st at 104.0 pts, up 20.0 on second-place Flex Seal — a commanding lead, though you did slip 1.0 pt since the last update. Watch SB closely: THAR is dead level with you, and one stolen base swing flips that roto point; meanwhile you're just 1 SV behind KRTZ, so closing that gap is your quickest +1.

⚾ Your guys gave you a monster night: Zach Neto went 4-for-5 with a homer and 2 RBI vs. the Red Sox, Yandy Diaz went 2-for-5 with a homer and 2 RBI vs. the Braves, and Bryce Eldridge added a homer, run, and RBI on 1-for-3 with a walk vs. the Cardinals. Jacob Misiorowski was sharp vs. the Cubs — 6.1 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 9 K. The one dent: Sandy Alcantara got shelled for 7 ER in 4.1 IP, an ugly line to eat.

📰 The Cubs' closer situation is in genuine flux — Jacob Webb has blown three straight save opportunities, and manager Craig Counsell offered no clear next man up, citing eight bullpen options. If you're chasing SVs against KRTZ, that ninth-inning committee bears watching. Separately, Edwin Díaz is expected to be activated later this week after back-to-back minor-league appearances; he's a potential re-entry into the Mets' closing role. Gunnar Henderson left Tuesday's game with a knee injury but called it day-to-day, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. jammed his thumb and is being re-evaluated Wednesday — monitor both for any lineup-based SB/R/RBI ripple effects.

ELIGIBILITYK. Schwarber 1B 7/10

Your standing

1stof 12

104.0 roto pts +20.0 clear of 2nd

-1.0 pts vs last update

Top Gaps

W (6.5) SB (7.5)

categories below mid-pack

Score change since last update

SV -1.0

🎯 Category Pressure

Category ranks vs. the league.

Rank →

Δ to #1

972

1057

🥇

280

309

🥇

RBI

905

947

🥇

135

145

152

201

+56

AVG

.254

.257

.260

+0.003

1225

1245

1389

+144

+15

+13

ERA

3.48

3.42

🥇

WHIP

1.17

1.15

🥇

📅 Yesterday's MIZ Box Scores (2026-09-08)

Loading box scores…

🏥 IL Rehab Tracker

IL players · rehab game logs.

On the IL, no rehab games yet: Spencer Schwellenbach (IL60 · watch).

📊 League Activity (last 24h)

All adds, drops, and trades across the 12 teams.

Team	Move
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	+ Tyler Mahle \| − Sean Burke
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	+ Andre Pallante \| − Quinn Mathews
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	+ Jake Bennett \| − Brandon Young

🏆 League Standings

Current roto points · 10,000-sim projected finish. FAAB = acquisition budget remaining.

100.0% to win the league · proj finish 1.0 · 104.4 roto pts

#	Team	Pts	FAAB	Win%	Proj Pts	Range	Proj Rk
1	MIZ Miz-waukee’s Best	104.0	$0	100.0%	104.4	102–107	1.0
2	PEYT Phil Swift's Flex Seal	84.0	$25	0.0%	87.4	83–92	2.3
3	FRAN Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	84.0	$51	0.0%	84.2	80–88	3.1
4	KRTZ Photogenic Nick Kurtz	81.5	$16	0.0%	83.1	79–88	3.4
5	GoOs I need Buck Showalter	68.0	$170	0.0%	67.6	63–72	5.6
6	BLOB Camp MVP	67.0	$168	0.0%	69.3	66–72	5.3
7	THAR Phil Mickeltits	61.0	$176	0.0%	56.8	53–61	7.6
8	KNIG Team Knighton	60.5	$137	0.0%	57.8	54–61	7.3
9	DORN Dorn and Associates LLC	45.0	$89	0.0%	43.3	40–47	10.4
10	FRST Worst2First	43.5	$154	0.0%	45.0	42–49	9.8
11	GARR The Boys of Summer	42.0	$155	0.0%	45.9	42–50	9.5
12	RAGE Ramirez Against the Machine	39.5	$163	0.0%	35.0	33–37	12.0

10,000 sims · fixed seed · noise CV talent 0.12 / idio 0.06 / team-cat 0.08 · assumes ATC rest-of-season rates

Your categories · projected roto points

R 12.0HR 12.0RBI 12.0SB 8.1AVG 10.0W 6.5SV 9.0K 11.0ERA 11.9WHIP 11.9

Winnable — push here: SB, W, SV.

🚨 Today's Streaming Board

164 of 200 GS · should be 181 · 17 behindBehind pace — stream aggressively

036 left · ~14.0/wk to cap · proj 182200

⏳ BP's post is late — Verdict pill is running on our score + Pitcher List for now (BP joins the top-2 once it posts).

Top FA streamers today

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Keider Montero	vs MIN	DART	—	4.4	#14	WHIP spiked last time; 1.00 WHIP upside still attainable here.
Janson Junk	vs NYM	DARTleash	—	5.7	#17	Short leash makes streaming upside too low to chase.
Jackson Kent	@ SD	SIT	—	4.7	#16	Multi-pitch approach failed vs. Dodgers; hopes it clicks here.
Walker Buehler	vs WSH	SIT	—	4.9	#19	Soft lineup helps but floor too ugly, ceiling too elusive.
Cody Bradford	@ SEA	SIT	—	3.5	#15	Pitch separation key; upside is six solid innings.
Blade Tidwell	vs STL	SIT⚠ opener	—	4.5	#23	Nothing promising; sweeper reliance on RHB not enough.
Ryan Johnson	@ BOS	SIT	—	3.8	#18	Short outings and limited upside make him unplayable despite modest
Davis Martin	vs PIT	SITleash	—	3.8	#22	Capped workload with no job security behind it.
Zac Gallen	@ KC	SIT	—	2.6	—	average KC lineup, weak skills, hitter park
Robert Stock	@ MIA	SIT	—	3.1	#25	Ceiling is barely adequate; floor is catastrophic.

Openers filtered: Brady Basso, Braydon Fisher, Lake Bachar

Your staff: 3.42 ERA / 1.15 WHIP · GS 164/200 — Behind pace — stream aggressively. Verdict = the best 2 of BP · our score · Pitcher List, averaged (low outlier dropped); before BP posts it's our score + PL. ⚠ = our matchup score dissented — eyeball that one. Tap a MIZ score for the reasoning.

Tomorrow · top 3 FA · Thu 9/10 · BP not out yet, so pill = our score + Pitcher List

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Jared Jones	@ CWS	START	—	5.7	#5	Heater favors him vs. LHB-heavy White Sox.
Martín Pérez	vs TB	SIT	—	2.7	#8	Speculative stream for a cheap win only.
Ryan Feltner	@ NYY	SIT	—	3.8	#10	Hard pass, no qualifications.

📼 Streamer Report Card

Does the Streaming Board actually work? Every pick it showed, frozen at pick time and graded off the real box score. Two scoreboards below: first our own calls — the Verdict ladder and MIZ (our matchup score, 0–10) — then the outside lists behind them, BP (RelieverRecon's daily BP Streamers post) and PL (Pitcher List's tier ranking). Grades are recomputed from raw lines on every build — the rubric can change, the history follows.

Last 30d · 345 starts graded over 29 days · GOOD+ 47% · BLOWUP 19% · agg ERA 4.40 · WHIP 1.34 · 4.5 K/start · 375 picks logged, 17 never started, 13 awaiting a box score — not graded

Grade mix · all 345 graded starts

GEM 63 GOOD 100 OK 118 BLOWUP 64

GEM6+ IP, ≤1 ER · or 6+ IP, 8+ K, ≤2 ERGOODquality start (6+ IP, ≤3 ER) · or 5+ IP, ≤2 EROKheld the line without earning GOODBLOWUP5+ ER · or under 4 IP with 4+ ERGOOD+ = GEM + GOOD. A pick whose starter never took the ball grades to nothing and leaves every rate below.

Cohort	n	GOOD+	BLOWUP	ERA
Q1 — Do our own calls work? · Verdict ladder + MIZ bands · live board rows only, nothing backfilled
Verdict · AUTO START	26	69%	19%	3.74
Verdict · START	48	60%	8%	3.83
Verdict · DART	92	42%	17%	4.72
Verdict · SIT	179	43%	22%	4.51
MIZ ≥ 5.0	113	63%	14%	3.73
MIZ 3.5–4.9	141	40%	22%	4.96
MIZ < 3.5	74	41%	19%	4.61
All live board picks	345	47%	19%	4.40
Q1 read — the ladder has not separated: GOOD+ runs 69% · 60% · 42% · 43% down the rungs, and MIZ does not sort either: 63% · 40% · 41% from the top band down.
Q2 — Which outside list earns the weight? · BP and PL graded on their own published lists · mostly rebuilt from git
PL · Auto Start	26	62%	23%	4.42
PL · Probably Start	46	59%	13%	3.91
PL · Questionable Start	102	49%	19%	4.57
PL · Do Not Start	146	43%	21%	4.39
BP · Auto	7	57%	0%	2.82
BP · Likely	28	46%	18%	4.33
All graded picks	345	47%	19%	4.40
Q2 read — against the 47% all-picks baseline, PL's top tiers clear it (62% · 59%) and BP's top tiers are too thin to call (57% · 46% on n=7 · n=28).

Rows are overlapping lenses on the same picks, not a partition — one start can be a PL Auto Start and a Verdict SIT at once, so they never sum to the headline; each group is read against its own baseline row.

⚠ Dissent check — the override is ahead so far — 67% GOOD+ on n=6. Splits are picks the board started over our MIZ sit-call (vs 47% for all live picks).

Calibration — do our numbers mean anything? · full season, 2026-06-29→2026-09-08 · 996 graded picks · MIZ on 454, BP on 230, Verdict on 477

The ladder above asks whether the tiers sort. This asks the harder question: is the number a probability — when the board says 7, do 70% of those starts come back GOOD+? Bins are equal-count and merge until every one clears n=15; the walk-forward rows are scored against a model that only ever saw earlier days.

Score bin	n	mean	GOOD+	95% CI
MIZ score → P(GOOD+) · our matchup score, 0–10 · live rows only · n=454
MIZ 0.5–3.3	100	2.7	41%	32%–51%
MIZ 3.4–4.0	88	3.7	42%	32%–52%
MIZ 4.1–4.8	91	4.4	51%	40%–61%
MIZ 4.9–5.6	91	5.2	51%	40%–61%
MIZ 5.7–8.9	84	6.4	62%	51%–72%
All MIZ-scored picks	454	—	49%	—
BP score → P(GOOD+) · RelieverRecon's published rating · includes git-backfilled rows · n=230
BP 4.6–6.6	48	6.1	35%	23%–50%
BP 6.7–7.3	44	7.0	52%	38%–66%
BP 7.4–7.7	47	7.5	45%	31%–59%
BP 7.8–8.4	47	8.1	47%	33%–61%
BP 8.5–10.0	44	9.1	43%	30%–58%
All BP-scored picks	230	—	44%	—
Verdict tier → P(GOOD+) · the consensus call itself · live rows only
AUTO START	33	—	67%	50%–80%
START	63	—	59%	46%–70%
DART	127	—	46%	37%–54%
SIT	254	—	45%	39%–51%

Out-of-sample	n	value	vs
Walk-forward probability · logistic on MIZ, refit daily on earlier days only · from 2026-08-05 · 34 days
Brier — our probability	390	0.248	lower is better
Brier — flat base rate to date	390	0.254	we win by 0.007
Brier — verdict-tier history	390	0.254	we win by 0.007
Log loss — our probability	390	0.688	lower is better
ECE — our probability	390	0.066	5 equal-count bins
ECE bins · predicted p vs what actually happened
said 32%–47%	78	37%	off by 5%
said 47%–51%	78	42%	off by 6%
said 51%–56%	78	41%	off by 12%
said 56%–60%	79	56%	off by 2%
said 60%–74%	77	57%	off by 7%
Verdict — usable with caveats: ECE 0.066 over n=390 out-of-sample picks (≤0.03 well calibrated · ≤0.07 usable with caveats); edges the flat base rate on Brier (0.248 vs 0.254, a thin margin; log-loss ~coin-flip).

🔥 Today's Hitter Streamers

Top 10 FA bats for today's slate · score = split vs SP hand (35%) + SP softness (35%) + bat quality (15%) + trailing 15 days (10%) + park (5%) · facing an elite arm fades the score hard (feast on weak pitchers).

#	Hitter	Matchup	Why	Legs	Score
1	AUTO STARTMickey GasperC · 14% own	vs LAA · Johnson RHP	szn .374 xwOBAL15: 1.247 OPS (47 PA)L14 contact +2.7 (.430 xwOBAcon, 25 BBE)usually bats 2nd (×1.10)beats 4 of 4 eligible startersJohnson .350 allowed · soft SP0.964 OPS vs RHP (138 AB)BOS plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	104
2	AUTO STARTTy France1B · 15% own	vs WSH · Kent LHP	szn .334 xwOBAL15: 0.884 OPS (54 PA)L14 contact +0.5 (.381 xwOBAcon, 33 BBE)usually bats 4th (×1.05)beats 3 of 3 eligible startersKent .347 allowed · soft SP0.853 OPS vs LHP (112 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	75
3	AUTO STARTChristian Encarnacion-Strand1B · 4% own	vs CLE · Griffin LHP	szn .349 xwOBAL15: 0.922 OPS (55 PA)L14 contact +3.4 (.445 xwOBAcon, 31 BBE)usually bats 6th (×0.98)beats 4 of 4 eligible startersGriffin .318 allowed · avg SP1.075 OPS vs LHP (57 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	75
4	AUTO STARTTyler TolbertCF · 1% own	vs AZ · Gallen RHP	szn .296 xwOBAusually bats 8th (×0.93)fills OF needbeats 6 of 9 eligible startersshort side vs RHP — 45% of ABGallen .384 allowed · soft SP0.856 OPS vs RHP (52 AB)KC plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	67
5	AUTO STARTAnthony Seigler3B · 0% own	vs LAA · Johnson RHP	szn .315 xwOBAbeats 4 of 5 eligible startersJohnson .350 allowed · soft SP0.797 OPS vs RHP (112 AB)BOS plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	65
6	AUTO STARTRafael Flores Jr.1B · 2% own	@ CWS · Martin RHP	szn .350 xwOBAL15: 0.643 OPS (37 PA)L14 contact +3.1 (.439 xwOBAcon, 25 BBE)usually bats 7th (×0.95)beats 3 of 4 eligible startersshort side vs RHP — 51% of ABMartin .330 allowed · soft SP0.875 OPS vs RHP (50 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	63
7	AUTO STARTIsiah Kiner-FalefaSS · 0% own	vs LAA · Johnson RHP	szn .315 xwOBAusually bats 8th (×0.93)beats 5 of 6 eligible startersJohnson .350 allowed · soft SP0.805 OPS vs RHP (92 AB)BOS plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	61
8	AUTO STARTMichael Massey2B · 1% own	vs AZ · Gallen RHP	szn .305 xwOBAL15: 0.717 OPS (28 PA)L14 contact +2.2 (.420 xwOBAcon, 21 BBE)usually bats 5thbeats 3 of 3 eligible startersGallen .384 allowed · soft SP0.724 OPS vs RHP (281 AB)KC plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	60
9	STARTRyan WardLF · 0% own	vs CIN · Lowder RHP	szn .316 xwOBAfills OF needbeats 5 of 10 eligible startersLowder .347 allowed · soft SP0.779 OPS vs RHP (52 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	60
10	AUTO STARTLuis CampusanoC · 1% own	vs WSH · Kent LHP	szn .343 xwOBAL15: 0.752 OPS (35 PA)L14 contact +3.6 (.450 xwOBAcon, 21 BBE)usually bats 6th (×0.98)beats 2 of 2 eligible startersshort side vs LHP — 21% of ABKent .347 allowed · soft SP0.733 OPS vs LHP (36 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	59

Tiers vs YOUR lineup tonight — median starter 51, worst Walker Jenkins (14). AUTO START = beats the median eligible starter.

TBD starter = neutral SP + split legs until the probable posts (refresh upgrades it). Splits need 30+ AB vs that hand. IL bats are excluded; bats who rarely start against tonight's hand are dropped. Doubleheaders: legs average the ends he plays, and everyday bats get up to a ×1.50 volume boost. Lineup slot scales the score by expected PAs from the bat's usual spot (leadoff ×1.12 … 9-hole ×0.90, modal over the last ~10 played days) — his typical order, not today's card, since that posts after waivers run.

🎯 FA Hitters — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Kyle Schwarber

1Lars NootbaarLF · Ari · 2.6%HEATER

87/99 heat, 96.4 EV on 22 BBE trusted sample; best contact quality in pool plus SB upside

Heat 87 · 22 BBE · ATC 53 PA · 2 HR · 1 SB · 0.248 · L7 0.357 · 0 HR · sim -0.1 pts

2Brett Baty

3B · NYM · 3.0% · HEATER

86/99 heat, 93.2 EV on 22 BBE; .512 xwOBAcon with real power production corroborating the signal

Heat 86 · 22 BBE · ATC 47 PA · 2 HR · 1 SB · 0.236 · L7 0.385 · 2 HR · sim -0.1 pts

3Ty France

1B · SD · 14.9% · BEST VALUE

Most PA projection (72), wRC+ 109, .259 ATC AVG; volume + quality combo no other candidate matches

L7 flare 76 · ATC 72 PA · 2 HR · 0 SB · 0.259 · L7 0.316 · 1 HR · sim -0.1 pts

4Francisco Alvarez

C · NYM · 9.0% · HEATER

79/99 heat on 19 BBE trusted sample, .508 xwOBAcon; catcher scarcity amplifies real contact-quality edge

Heat 79 · 19 BBE · ATC 49 PA · 2 HR · 0 SB · 0.228 · L7 0.25 · 2 HR · sim -0.1 pts

5Michael Massey

2B · KC · 0.9% · CATEGORY FIT

54 PA projection with SB potential in a live SB race; everyday volume and .249 ATC AVG protect AVG rank

Heat 76 · 21 BBE · ATC 54 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.249 · L7 0.304 · 0 HR · sim -0.1 pts

Passed on: Sean Murphy has an elite 86/99 heat score and .52 xwOBAcon but only 18 BBE (just under trust threshold) and 36 projected PA; volume disqualifies him over longer-ceiling options.

💪 Hitter List Rankings

PL Top 150 hitters · your bats + top FAs.

On Hitter List · 16 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Hitter	MLB	Pos	Chg	AVG	xwOBA	HR	SB	RoS	Chu’s Take
16	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	DH	+3	.242	.369	43	3	124
18	Randy Arozarena	SEA	OF	-	.274	.348	22	21	127
21	Miguel Vargas	CHW	1B/3B	+19	.250	.383	30	16	115	Miguel Vargas has returned to the levels we saw early this summer and that really revs my engine. He’s one of those players who has shown…
36	Yandy Díaz	TB	1B	+3	.306	.356	22	3	122
46	Zach Neto	LAA	SS	+11	.242	.307	24	19	111	Zach Neto has been a monster over the last nine games, with 17 hits, 18 combined runs and RBI (a seven RBI night helps), and seven extra-…
59	Jac Caglianone	KC	1B/OF	+13	.283	.357	23	6	108	Jac Caglianone still hits a lot of grounders, but not quite as many as before (the rolling 15-game rate is a hair below 50%) and the stri…
72	Ty France	SD	1B	+12	.290	.334	20	1	109
77	Royce Lewis	MIN	1B/2B/3B	-15	.232	.313	14	14	96	Royce Lewis is streaky. We just gotta deal with that.
85	Cole Carrigg	COL	SS/OF	-22	.264	.317	7	9	67	The strikeouts have creeped up on Cole Carrigg , up to 32% over his last 11 games (which is, conveniently, exactly 50 plate appearances).…
106	Luis Robert Jr.	NYM	OF	+UR	.221	.321	11	2	100
109	Mickey Gasper	BOS	C/1B	+UR	.270	.374	8	0	104	Mickey Gasper — Fantastic mustache, first of all. Second of all, the batted ball data suggests what’s happening of late is very real, tho…
115	Kaelen Culpepper	MIN	SS	+UR	.296	.309	3	1	90	Kaelen Culpepper — Culpepper puts a lot of balls in play and it’s working out so far. The BABIP Gods can be cruel, though. The 55 point g…
119	Rafael Flores Jr.	PIT	C/1B	+UR	.242	.350	8	0	83
133	Connor Norby	COL	1B/2B/3B	+UR	.222	.298	6	8	91	Connor Norby still has huge contact issues but the guy can hit the ball hard in the air and plays for Colorado so stream away.
135	Henry Bolte	ATH	OF	+UR	.278	.315	9	19	93	Henry Bolte is leading off again and should get some games in Sacramento soon, if you need a streamer.
137	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	BAL	1B/3B	+UR	.260	.349	8	1	92
143	Alejandro Kirk	TOR	C	+UR	.275	.302	9	1	114
145	Tyler Stephenson	CIN	C	-33	.247	.333	15	0	94
146	Ryan Jeffers	MIN	C	-29	.270	.363	14	1	117
148	Andruw Monasterio	BOS	2B/SS	-26	.241	.294	6	4	89
149	Dylan Crews	WSH	OF	-35	.223	.312	11	9	83
TS	Bryce Eldridge	SF	1B	—	.265	.358	16	1	100	Bryce Eldridge (1B, SFG) — Power prospects can often take a while to really shine.
TS	Walker Jenkins	Min	OF	—	.125	.273	1	1	102	Walker Jenkins (OF, MIN) — Jenkins will get the call today after a white-hot month in the triple-A. He’s worth a scoop in most leagues, E…
UR	James Wood	Wsh	OF	—	.265	.416	30	18	126	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Michael Arroyo	Sea	2B	—	.000	.005	0	0	89	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Ralphy Velazquez	Cle	1B	—	—	—	—	—	83	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.

🔥 Heat Board

Hottest ACTIVE free-agent bats by contact quality, 8/26–9/8 · Heat = percentile vs all MLB bats over the same window (xwOBAcon 30 · EV 20 · Brl 20 · HH 15 · K 10 · BB 5) · min 15 BBE to qualify (smaller samples live in the HM rail) · IL excluded.

Lars Nootbaar

LF · Ari · 2.6% own · xwOBAcon .485 · EV 96.4 · Brl 13.6% · 22 BBE

▲ .155 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.238	6	29	29	2
L14	.393	2	8	3	0

Brett Baty

3B · NYM · 3.0% own · xwOBAcon .512 · EV 93.2 · Brl 22.7% · 22 BBE

▲ .094 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.227	10	49	48	5
L14	.321	2	9	4	0

Sean Murphy

C · Atl · 0.9% own · xwOBAcon .520 · EV 93.1 · Brl 16.7% · 18 BBE

▲ .122 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.211	3	8	8	0
L14	.333	3	7	7	0

Andrew Benintendi

LF · ChW · 3.3% own · xwOBAcon .400 · EV 91.6 · Brl 14.3% · 28 BBE

▼ .008 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.243	14	70	55	1
L14	.235	1	5	7	0

Francisco Alvarez

C · NYM · 9.0% own · xwOBAcon .508 · EV 92.3 · Brl 15.8% · 19 BBE

▼ .026 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.232	15	37	32	0
L14	.206	2	7	3	0

Amed Rosario

3B · NYY · 0.6% own · xwOBAcon .405 · EV 93.7 · Brl 9.5% · 21 BBE

▲ .095 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.238	10	32	26	2
L14	.333	0	4	3	1

Michael Massey

2B · KC · 0.9% own · xwOBAcon .420 · EV 94.2 · Brl 4.8% · 21 BBE

▲ .026 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.278	11	45	46	3
L14	.304	0	1	0	1

Christian Encarnacion-Strand

1B · Bal · 3.7% own · xwOBAcon .445 · EV 90.7 · Brl 16.1% · 31 BBE

▲ .051 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.260	8	31	15	1
L14	.311	1	6	5	0

Rafael Flores Jr.

1B · Pit · 2.0% own · xwOBAcon .439 · EV 91.2 · Brl 8.0% · 25 BBE

▼ .036 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.242	8	18	13	0
L14	.206	2	4	3	0

Nolan Gorman

3B · StL · 1.4% own · xwOBAcon .391 · EV 91.7 · Brl 19.2% · 26 BBE

▼ .047 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.182	9	31	23	0
L14	.135	2	5	4	0

Honorable mention · hottest L7 (9/2–9/8), not yet on the board · tiny samples — peek, don't trust

Justin Foscue

2B · Tex

.517 xwOBAcon

13 BBE · .412 L7

Michael Conforto

LF · ChC

.492 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .364 L7

Ty France

1B · SD

.437 xwOBAcon

15 BBE · .316 L7

Grant McCray

RF · SF

.501 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .300 L7

Eduardo Valencia

1B · Det

.487 xwOBAcon

14 BBE · .250 L7

Yainer Diaz

C · Hou

.370 xwOBAcon

15 BBE · .412 L7

🎯 FA Pitchers — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Andres Munoz

1Merrill KellySP · Ari · 21.1%HEATER

Elite 92nd-pct suppression on 36 BBE trusted sample; 3 GS volume with GS cap slack

Supp 92 · 36 BBE · ATC 19.0 IP · 1 W · 16 K · 4.60 · 1.36 · sim -0.4 pts

2Keider Montero

SP · Det · 18.1% · BEST VALUE

#14 streamer rank, solid WHIP projection, 3 GS; suppression adequate on 33 BBE

Supp 77 · 33 BBE · ATC 18.0 IP · 1 W · 13 K · 4.53 · 1.31 · PL #14 · sim -0.4 pts

3Juan Morillo

RP · Ari · 3.4% · CATEGORY FIT

Closer role confirmed, 69th-pct suppression on 19 BBE; SV rank 4 needs protection at margin

Supp 69 · 19 BBE · ATC 6.0 IP · 0 W · 6 K · 3.83 · 1.36 · 1 SV · Closer · sim -0.4 pts

4Andrew Kittredge

RP · Bal · 3.3% · CATEGORY FIT

Closer role, 2 projected SV, best WHIP of closer group at 1.20; ratio-safe add

Supp 23 · 22 BBE · ATC 7.0 IP · 0 W · 6 K · 3.80 · 1.20 · 2 SV · Closer · sim -0.4 pts

5Jackson Kent

SP · Wsh · 0.4% · FLOOR

73rd-pct suppression on full 36 BBE; 3 GS, cleanest ratio profile among streaming SPs

Supp 73 · 36 BBE · ATC 11.0 IP · 0 W · 10 K · 4.53 · 1.33 · PL #16 · sim -0.4 pts

Passed on: Jacob Webb is the closer with the role but L14 suppression is catastrophic (4th percentile, 0.538 xwOBAcon on 10 BBE) — adding him would torch ERA/WHIP leads for a fragile saves play.

⚾ Pitcher List Rankings

PL Top 100 SP · your arms + top FAs.

On Pitcher List · 6 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Pitcher	MLB	Chg	ERA	xERA	K/9	RoS	Pollack’s Take
1	Jacob Misiorowski	MIL	-	1.95	2.09	13.2	3.40	Like a base set Charizard, Misiorowski’s not gonna stop being dope.
9	Blake Snell	LAD	+7	1.97	2.11	12.1	3.31	#HotSnellSummer is in full swing.
10	Dylan Cease	TOR	-1	2.40	2.76	12.7	3.45	Like a perfect burger without the condiments to hit all your macros, Cease gives you everything except for a stable WHIP due to his infla…
20	Kyle Harrison	MIL	+8	3.66	3.73	10.9	4.19	With a dominant outing, he muted our concerns, but Harrison’s still displaying decreased velocity and not commanding as well as he did in…
22	Eury Pérez	MIA	-4	3.94	4.09	9.7	3.91	Pérez has the stuff to be an ace, but there’s polishing to do in the command and game plan departments to unlock his full potential.
29	Sean Burke	CHW	-4	3.58	3.81	9.8	4.43	Burke’s hot streak has come to a brief pause, but he’s still doing everything he’s supposed to with elite four-seamers upstairs and suppo…
30	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	-4	3.78	3.89	6.4	4.17	Baseball’s premier innings eater hasn’t ruined his appetite.
38	Jacob Lopez	ATH	+6	4.78	3.49	8.4	4.55	It’s the 2025 hot streak all over again. Enjoy the ride, ya’ll!
39	Dustin May	MIL	-	4.69	4.29	8.6	4.18	May got Singled Out in a disastrous performance, but his stuff is still dope, and his new situation is ideal. Higher win chance, great de…
40	Walbert Ureña	LAA	-	2.74	3.39	8.5	4.49	Armed with upper-90s heaters and one of the best changeups in baseball, Ureña has hit few speed bumps. If that developing sweeper becomes…
43	Andrew Painter	PHI	+UR	5.71	4.53	7.9	4.71	From off The List to inside the Top 50, Painter has stolen our hearts with an improved heater (97+ mph with 17-18″ iVB) and emphasis on r…
45	Peter Lambert	HOU	-4	3.67	3.65	8.8	4.61	Lambert’s stumble last time was a product of being Singled Out . He’s been reliable all year, but we should be recognizing that Holly is …
46	Jared Jones	PIT	-8	4.46	3.62	10.5	3.97	The stuff is top-tier, but he’s still shaking off the Tommy John surgery rust with his command and the tight leash the Pirates have on hi…
54	Joey Cantillo	CLE	-8	4.00	4.20	9.6	4.05	Efficiency is a problem, but Cantillo is doing everything we want. More curveballs, faster fastballs, and supportive cutters. Throw more …
56	Shane Bieber	TOR	+14	4.37	5.95	7.1	4.05	Bieber is back in business. His heater looked awesome in The Trop, and his offspeed pitches are being the CSW monsters they need to be to…
58	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	-	3.53	3.75	5.9	4.67	Despite what the line suggests, Pfaadt’s last start wasn’t an end to his Vargas Rule . It was a textbook Careful, Icarus with a three-run…

🔒 Closer Chart

Save targets · roles + regression flags.

BLUEEntrenched closer (highest leverage)GREENNext man up / committee pieceYELLOWSetup, 8th-inning leverageORANGESpeculative / lower priorityMAGENTAHigh-upside future / multi-inning

	Pitcher	Tm	Role	SV	SVHD	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K/9	Rtg / Own
Yours on the chart
—	Andrés Muñoz	Seattle Mariners	CL	25	25	52.3	4.13	1.15	3.17	14.3	5.0 · —
—	Louis Varland	Toronto Blue Jays	CL	33	38	71.3	1.26	1.02	2.28 ↑	11.0	5.0 · —
Top 5 FA closers (by team rating)
—	Andrew Kittredge	Baltimore Orioles	CL	9	18	44.7	3.83	1.43	4.06	7.5	4.0 · 3%
—	Dylan Smith	San Francisco Giants	CL	4	11	33.3	3.24	1.41	3.92	11.1	4.0 · 0%
	Steven Cruz (HLR) b2b	Kansas City Royals	CL	6	11	54.7	4.12	1.26	4.09	9.5	3.5 · 1%
	Jacob Webb	Chicago Cubs	CL	9	17	61.7	3.36	1.25	4.29	9.8	3.0 · 5%
	Juan Morillo	Arizona Diamondbacks	CL	3	21	58.0	2.33	1.07	2.47	10.4	1.0 · 3%

ERA cell: green <3.00 · red >4.50. xERA arrow: ↓ ERA likely to fall (buy) · ↑ ERA likely to rise (sell). Triggers when |xERA−ERA| ≥ 1.00.

✂️ Cut List

Drop priority · value, form, pedigree, role.

48	Royce Lewis 3B · Min low TV (17) sim cost ~0	TV 17 Rd 13
27	Kyle Harrison SP · Mil mid TV (43); cold last 7d; UFDA — easy to drop; BUT top-tier keeper sim cost ~0	TV 43 UFDA
15	Sandy Alcantara SP · Mia BUT solid keeper sim cost ~0	TV 71 Rd 14
15	Blake Snell SP · LAD BUT strong RoS (3.31 ERA) sim cost ~0	TV 80 Rd 8
14	Joe Ryan SP · Min BUT high-pedigree (Rd 5) sim cost ~0	TV 72 Rd 5

Higher score = drop sooner — top 5 by score, and only 8+ reaches the board, so the number has no ceiling and is only comparable within this list. The sim line is a roto-sim marginal (cut vs. keep on one shared set of draws), not a measured cost. Pedigree + named closers shielded.

🌱 Stash List

PL's top prospects · grab them cheap.

Hitters

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 24: Top 10 Hitting Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + PSS + PFV + age + 40-man + path.

20 available — 2 yours

M. Arroyo YOURS

SS · SEA · AAA · 21 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

18·17·.281

R. Velazquez YOURS

1B/C · CLE · AA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

29·2·.290

J. Tibbs III

OF · LAD · AAA · 23 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

28·9·.292

S. Thompson

OF · COL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

12·20·.304

Z. Hope

OF · DET · AA · 21 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

28·24·.288

C. Cannarella

OF · MIA · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

15·21·.336

C. Ingle

C · CLE · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

19·2·.290

J. Long

1B · CHC · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

15·3·.276

M. Anderson

2B · DET · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

16·5·.303

B. Davidson

OF · SFG · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

September

Szn

28·19·.287

S. Walcott

3B/SS · TEX · AA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

10·10·.333

H. Mendez

OF · MIN · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

12·4·.282

J. Melton

OF · TB · AAA · 25 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

8·28·.272

R. Ward

LF · LAD · AAA · 28 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

20·7·.246

S. King

SS/2B/3B · WSN · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

19·14·.306

J. Made

SS · MIL · AA · 19 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

14·36·.269

K. Alderman

OF · MIA · AAA · 23 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

18·10·.257

R. Clifford

1B · NYM · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

16·8·.173

P. Harber

3B · SFG · AAA · 24 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

'27

Szn

17·4·.271

D. Crisantes

2B/3B · ARI · AAA · 21 · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

blocked

Szn

9·0·.285

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

Pitchers

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 24: Top 10 Pitching Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + L3 quality + FV + age + 40-man + path.

28 available

J. Tong

SP · NYM · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

140K·4.57

T. Johnson

SP · TBR · AAA · 24 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

86K·2.98

B. Mautz

SP · STL · AAA · 24 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

100K·4.28

L. Perales

SP · WSN · AAA · 23 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

102K·4.17

H. Smith

SP · CHW · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

August 1st

Szn

110K·3.51

M. Ullola

SP · HOU · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

100K·4.17

C. Seymour

SP · SFG · AAA · 27 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

88K·4.23

K. Curtis

SP · PIT · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

115K·4.53

R. Snelling

SP · MIA · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

46K·2.38

D. Sandlin

SP · CHW · AAA · 25 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

99K·3.35

O. Murphy

SP · ATL · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

127K·3.63

C. Dana

SP · LAA · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

83K·5.44

J. Ritchie

SP · ATL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

133K·3.82

G. Wood

SP · PHI · AA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

'26

Szn

134K·4.40

J. Wenninger

SP · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

115K·4.24

M. Bratt

SP · ARI · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

82K·3.92

M. Forret

SP · BAL · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

125K·3.89

T. Bremner

SP · LAA · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

100K·4.33

R. Sloan

SP · SEA · AA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

124K·3.70

E. Rodriguez

SP · NYY · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

120K·3.19

B. Garrett

SP · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

June 1st

Szn

110K·3.94

T. McDougal

SP · CHW · AAA · 23 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

49K·4.43

D. Davalillo

SP · TEX · AAA · 24 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

100K·4.87

A. Kelly

SP · PIT · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

76K·4.33

B. Hopkins

SP · TBR · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

120K·5.23

C. Crow

SP · MIL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

101K·3.74

T. Gibson

SP · BAL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

102K·4.99

L. Braun

SP · ATL · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

105K·4.02

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

🔭 14 not a 2026 factor — Anthony Eyanson · Liam Doyle · Bryce Mayer · Jackson Ferris · Jamie Arnold · Tyson Hardin · Jackson Wolf · Jurrangelo Cijntje · Daniel Eagen · Christian Zazueta · Joseph Dzierwa · Jaxon Wiggins · Karson Milbrandt · Jonathan Santucci

💼 Trades

Buy-low targets · league trade history.

Top Buy-Lows

Rebound candidates · suggested offers.

Hitters

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Juan Soto RF · NYM · GARR · jregarris +1.2σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.279 / xBA 0.296 · xwOBA 0.419	100%	159 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Dylan Cease SP · comparable value (TV 100 vs target 100)
📈 BUY-LOW	Heriberto Hernandez LF · Mia · FRAN · francisw789 +1.4σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.228 / xBA 0.248 · xwOBA 0.355	11%	100 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 35 vs target 33)
📈 BUY-LOW	JJ Bleday CF · Cin · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.3σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.215 / xBA 0.240 · xwOBA 0.343	22%	100 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Henry Bolte RF + Royce Lewis 3B · two-piece package (TV 22 vs target 26)
↑ mild buy	Taylor Ward LF · Sea · GoOs · My Best Guys +0.7σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.224 / xBA 0.241 · xwOBA 0.333	57%	120 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Zach Neto SS · comparable value (TV 60 vs target 60)
↑ mild buy	Kyle Stowers LF · Mia · KNIG · TKHOO +0.7σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.245 / xBA 0.232 · xwOBA 0.333	29%	111 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Henry Bolte RF + Royce Lewis 3B + +$3 FAAB · two-piece package (TV 22 vs target 28)
↑ mild buy	Dominic Canzone RF · Sea · GARR · jregarris +0.6σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.256 / xBA 0.268 · xwOBA 0.353	12%	114 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 35 vs target 34)
↑ mild buy	Jarren Duran LF · Bos · RAGE · glhoward40 +0.9σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.204 / xBA 0.236 · xwOBA 0.300	66%	100 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Zach Neto SS · comparable value (TV 60 vs target 57)
↑ mild buy	Ian Happ LF · ChC · FRAN · francisw789 +0.7σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.220 / xBA 0.206 · xwOBA 0.313	70%	109 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Royce Lewis 3B + Bryce Eldridge 1B · two-piece package (TV 52 vs target 56)
↑ mild buy	Ronald Acuna Jr. RF · Atl · GoOs · My Best Guys +0.8σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.253 / xBA 0.258 · xwOBA 0.364	98%	129 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Blake Snell SP + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 80 vs target 86)
↑ mild buy	Heliot Ramos LF · NYY · DORN · Lambertmt48 +0.7σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.243 / xBA 0.257 · xwOBA 0.329	10%	105 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Royce Lewis 3B · comparable value (TV 17 vs target 17)

Pitchers

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Kodai Senga SP · NYM · KRTZ · FratSkins +1.1σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 7.14 vs xERA 5.08	10%	3.88 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Royce Lewis 3B · comparable value (TV 17 vs target 14)
📈 BUY-LOW	Kade Anderson SP · Sea · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.5σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 5.40 vs xERA 3.15	19%	4.59 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Henry Bolte RF + Royce Lewis 3B + +$4 FAAB · two-piece package (TV 22 vs target 29)
↑ mild buy	Nick Pivetta SP · SD · GARR · jregarris +0.7σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 3.43 vs xERA 2.41	56%	3.88 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Royce Lewis 3B + Bryce Eldridge 1B · two-piece package (TV 52 vs target 54)
↑ mild buy	Bryce Miller SP · Sea · BLOB · crenshawh19 +0.6σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.22 vs xERA 3.44	29%	4.15 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 35 vs target 37)
↑ mild buy	Freddy Peralta SP · TB · KNIG · TKHOO +0.6σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.82 vs xERA 3.92	76%	4.03 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Zach Neto SS · comparable value (TV 60 vs target 58)

League History

Completed trades · frozen grade at the deal + live grade now.

Side	Sent	At deal	Now	Trend
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Andy Pages	A- +7	A+ +45	▲ up
Camp MVP	Pete Crow-Armstrong	C -7	F -45	▼ down
Team Knighton ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Team Knighton	Matthew Boyd	F -22	F -23
Camp MVP	Kenley Jansen	A+ +22	A+ +23
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Worst2First 2026-08-10
Miz-waukee’s Best	Charlie Condon, Payton Tolle	A+ +50	A+ +33	▼ down
Worst2First	Dylan Cease	F -50	F -33	▲ up
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Dorn and Associates LLC 2026-08-05
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Travis Bazzana, George Lombard Jr., Nolan McLean	A+ +144	A+ +105	▼ down
Dorn and Associates LLC	Jackson Chourio, Jhoan Duran, Brice Turang, David Bednar	F -144	F -105	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-07-31
Miz-waukee’s Best	Samuel Basallo, Kade Anderson	A- +8	A+ +20	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine	Blake Snell	C -8	F -20	▼ down
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Team Knighton 2026-07-23
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Jo Adell, Jacob deGrom	F -49	F -63	▼ down
Team Knighton	Trea Turner	A+ +49	A+ +63	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine ⇄ Miz-waukee’s Best 2026-07-19
Ramirez Against the Machine	Sandy Alcantara	F -42	F -67	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best	Josh Jung	A+ +42	A+ +67	▲ up
I need Buck Showalter ⇄ Hit the Damn Ball You Bums 2026-06-19
I need Buck Showalter	Nasim Nunez	A+ +28	A +11	▼ down
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Justin Wrobleski	F -28	D -11	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ The Boys of Summer 2026-06-12
Miz-waukee’s Best	Chandler Simpson	A +10	A- +7	▼ down
The Boys of Summer	$30 FAAB	D -10	C -7	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-05-01
Miz-waukee’s Best	Kenley Jansen	—	A- +7
Camp MVP	$30 FAAB	A- +3	C -7	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-04-22
Miz-waukee’s Best	Nathan Eovaldi, $70 FAAB	—	F -41
Ramirez Against the Machine	Jac Caglianone	A+ +60	A+ +41	▼ down

🔻 Sell-High — My Roster

Surface line outrunning the underlying skill — trade-value peaks. σ = his surface-stat z-score minus his Statcast-skill z-score, both against the league reference for his side — bigger σ = further ahead of the skill. Pair with Buy-Low Targets.

Verdict	Player	Own	Surface vs expected	Contact	2027 keeper
↓ SHOP	Henry Bolte RF · Oak 0.66σ sell-high · RF · BA 0.278 / xBA 0.247 · xwOBA 0.315 — test the market, don't force it	8%	BA 0.278 / xBA 0.247 +.031 wOBA 0.339 / xwOBA 0.315 +.024	HH 48.0% · Brl/PA 4.5%	25th · +2 rds vs mkt
↓ SHOP	Yandy Diaz 1B · TB 0.65σ sell-high · 1B · BA 0.306 / xBA 0.289 · xwOBA 0.356 — test the market, don't force it	93%	BA 0.306 / xBA 0.289 +.017 wOBA 0.367 / xwOBA 0.356 +.011	HH 48.7% · Brl/PA 5.6%	7th · +1 rd vs mkt
HOLD — KEEPER PRICE	Louis Varland RP · Tor 0.43σ sell-high · RP · ERA 1.26 vs xERA 2.28 — only move for keeper-grade return	87%	ERA 1.26 / xERA 2.28 -1.02	Brl 4.0% allowed	22nd · +16 rds vs mkt

👥 Your Roster

Your roster · news + buy/sell signals.

News (last 24h)

Player news · last 24h.

Jac Caglianone Fantasy baseball news and notes: Diamondbacks get pitching help and more for Wednesday
Wed 09-09 01:35 PM
All of the important fantasy spin and actionable takeaways resulting from the latest baseball news.
Bryce Eldridge Home runs by Bryce Eldridge, Christian Koss lead Giants past Cardinals 2-1
Wed 09-09 04:24 AM
— Bryce Eldridge hit a solo home run in the first inning and extended his on-base streak to 17 games, Christian Koss connected the next inning, and the San Francisco Giants beat the St. Louis Cardinals 2-1 on Tuesday night.
Bryce Eldridge Giants take Game 2 over the Cardinals 2-1
Wed 09-09 04:22 AM
Giants take Game 2 over the Cardinals 2-1
Zach Neto Reid Detmers strikes out 9 as Angels beat Red Sox 6-1, ending Boston’s streak
Wed 09-09 02:09 AM
— Reid Detmers struck out nine and allowed one hit over six shutout innings, Zach Neto was 4 for 5 with a two-run homer, and the Los Angeles Angels beat the Red Sox 6-1 on Tuesday night to end Boston's five-game win streak.
Yandy Diaz Rays beat the Braves 7-1 to open up the series
Wed 09-09 02:08 AM
Rays beat the Braves 7-1 to open up the series
Ryan Jeffers Getting breather during day game
Wed 09-09 12:00 AM
Jeffers is not in the lineup for Wednesday's game in Detroit.
Henry Bolte Stays hot in Tuesday's loss
Wed 09-09 12:00 AM
Bolte went 2-for-4 in Tuesday's 4-2 loss to Toronto.

Leverage Buys/Sells

Buy/sell windows · surface vs. underlying.

Hitters

Player	Pos	MLB	BA	xBA	wOBA	xwOBA	Brl%	Own%	Signal
James Wood	LF	Wsh	0.265	0.276	0.392	0.416	100.0	99.1	📈 BUY-LOW
Kyle Schwarber	DH	Phi	0.242	0.243	0.377	0.369	98.0	99.5	📈 BUY-LOW
Miguel Vargas	3B	ChW	0.250	0.267	0.365	0.383	90.0	95.1	📈 BUY-LOW
Bryce Eldridge	1B	SF	0.265	0.258	0.358	0.358	76.0	11.0	↑ mild buy
Zach Neto	SS	LAA	0.242	0.213	0.332	0.307	73.0	60.1	fair
Randy Arozarena	LF	Sea	0.274	0.259	0.368	0.348	52.0	93.8	fair
Cole Carrigg	CF	Col	0.264	0.252	0.340	0.317	—	12.4	fair
Walker Jenkins	CF	Min	0.125	0.174	0.255	0.273	—	5.4	fair
Ryan Jeffers	C	Min	0.270	0.258	0.377	0.363	74.0	42.4	fair
Henry Bolte	RF	Oak	0.278	0.247	0.339	0.315	48.0	8.2	↓ mild fade
Kaelen Culpepper	SS	Min	0.296	0.258	0.344	0.309	—	6.7	fair
Royce Lewis	3B	Min	0.232	0.241	0.304	0.313	73.0	14.1	↑ mild buy
Jac Caglianone DTD	RF	KC	0.283	0.281	0.356	0.357	91.0	50.8	fair
Yandy Diaz	1B	TB	0.306	0.289	0.367	0.356	50.0	92.6	↓ mild fade
Ralphy Velazquez	1B	Cle	—	—	—	—	—	0.7	—
Michael Arroyo	2B	Sea	0.000	0.005	0.000	0.005	0.0	0.5	—

Pitchers

Pitcher	Pos	MLB	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K-BB%	xwOBA-a	Brl%-a	Own%	Signal
Blake Snell	SP	LAD	32.0	1.97	1.09	2.11	22.0	0.226	1.4	90.3	↑ mild buy
Andres Munoz	RP	Sea	52.3	4.13	1.15	3.17	29.0	0.277	8.8	79.8	↑ mild buy
Joe Ryan	SP	Min	129.7	4.10	1.14	3.49	21.6	0.290	10.5	87.6	fair
Jacob Misiorowski	SP	Mil	161.3	1.95	0.80	2.09	31.7	0.225	3.9	99.4	fair
Sandy Alcantara	SP	Mia	200.0	3.78	1.22	3.89	10.6	0.305	5.6	86.5	fair
Dylan Cease	SP	Tor	161.3	2.40	1.04	2.76	24.8	0.259	5.2	99.3	fair
Kyle Harrison	SP	Mil	110.7	3.66	1.27	3.73	21.4	0.299	8.3	56.5	fair
Eury Perez	SP	Mia	139.3	3.94	1.24	4.09	15.1	0.312	10.2	70.2	fair
Louis Varland	RP	Tor	71.3	1.26	1.02	2.28	23.5	0.235	4.0	86.8	↓ mild fade

📰 MLB News — Top Fantasy Stories

🔒 Keepers — 2027 Slate

Peter's model (additive): rounds-saved (cost arbitrage spine) + current skill + career-grade pedigree + sample stability + Statcast over/under-performance trend, with age-decline (33+), closer/RP, and top-30 talent adjustments. Heavy on bargain-hunting.
Claude's model (multiplicative dynasty index): EFV(2027) = (3 + skill + upside) × age_mult × pos_mult; score = EFV − cost_replacement − mookie-lock. Compounds age curve and position scarcity.
Sorted by consensus rank (average of both models). MLB-inactive players surfaced in 🚑 Return Watch below.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict	Notes
1.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	21st	#1 (+24.4)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51	UFDA-G FV 55
2.5	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	25th	#2 (+21.6)	#3 (+17.1)	A · $17	UFDA
2.5	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	22nd	#3 (+21.4)	#2 (+27.1)	S · $27
4.5	Bryce Eldridge	1B · 20yo	25th	#4 (+16.2)	#5 (+14.4)	A · $14	UFDA FV 55
5.0	Zach Neto	SS · 25yo	10th	#6 (+13.7)	#4 (+16.1)	A · $16
5.5	Henry Bolte	RF · 21yo	25th	#5 (+14.9)	#6 (+13.8)	A · $14	UFDA FV 40
7.5	Eury Perez	SP · 23yo	20th	#8 (+10.5)	#7 (+8.5)	B · $8	UFDA-G
8.0	Dylan Cease	SP · 30yo	4th	#7 (+11.0)	— (+5.8)	B · $6
8.5	Jac Caglianone	RF · 22yo	21st	— (+10.1)	#8 (+6.8)	B · $7	UFDA-G FV 55

NEW UFDA cap: Peter 3/3 · Claude 3/3 · BOTH = top 8 in both models. Peter only = his model values cost surplus more; Claude only = mine values projection / position scarcity more.

🚑 Return watch — would be keeper-eligible if they get MLB action this year. Rank shown is hypothetical (where they'd slot if eligible).

Player	Pos · Age	Cost	Peter (if elig.)	Claude (if elig.)
Ralphy Velazquez	1B · 19yo	25th	#16 (-2.0)	#12 (+1.4)
Michael Arroyo	2B · 20yo	25th	#18 (-10.1)	#19 (-2.4)

Updated Wed Sep 9 · 12:05 PM ET

🌍 League-Wide Top Keepers

Top 10 keepers · all 12 teams · both models. Yours in green.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	Team	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict
1.5	Jesus Luzardo	SP · 28yo	KNIG	21st	#1 (+28.9)	#2 (+42.1)	S · $42
3.0	Andy Pages	CF · 25yo	BLOB	20th	#3 (+25.1)	#3 (+41.5)	S · $41
3.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	MIZ	21st	#5 (+24.4)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51
4.5	Jordan Walker	RF · 24yo	GARR	25th	#2 (+25.2)	#7 (+29.9)	S · $30
4.5	Bryan Baker	RP · 31yo	DORN	25th	#4 (+24.8)	#5 (+38.7)	S · $39
7.0	Cam Schlittler	SP · 24yo	KRTZ	19th	#10 (+19.6)	#4 (+40.8)	S · $41
7.5	Ben Rice	1B · 27yo	DORN	20th	#6 (+23.3)	#9 (+24.0)	S · $24
8.5	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	MIZ	22nd	#9 (+21.4)	#8 (+27.1)	S · $27
8.5	Riley O'Brien	RP · 31yo	THAR	17th	— (+13.7)	#6 (+30.6)	S · $31
9.0	Payton Tolle	SP · 22yo	FRST	25th	#7 (+21.8)	— (+18.5)	S · $18
9.5	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	MIZ	25th	#8 (+21.6)	— (+17.1)	A · $17
10.5	Junior Caminero	3B · 22yo	RAGE	5th	— (+12.4)	#10 (+23.3)	S · $23

Updated Wed Sep 9 · 12:05 PM ET

🏚️ Keeper Cupboards

Every team's six best keepers · shade = dual-model consensus value. Cupboard score weights the top four heavily (the slots that get kept), keepers 5–8 taper. 100 = league's best cupboard.

Team	K1	K2	K3	K4	K5	K6	Cupboard
1MIZ	MisiorowskiR21	VargasR25	VarlandR22	EldridgeR25	NetoR10	BolteR25	100
2DORN	BakerR25	RiceR20	McLeanR20	BazzanaR25	LaraR25	PerdomoR21	84
3BLOB	PagesR20	SorianoR25	ScottR25	LopezR20	LileR15	SaleR1	71
4KNIG	LuzardoR21	AbreuR15	deGromR13	JensenR20	MartinezR25	RodriguezR25	68
5KRTZ	SchlittlerR19	BengeR25	SanojaR25	McGonigleR17	StewartR10	ColeR11	64
6FRAN	LatzR25	CavalliR21	AntonacciR25	McCarthyR25	BurnsR5	BradishR21	61
7GoOs	GriffinR25	GoodmanR21	BradleyR25	BurlesonR9	GomezR25	ReynoldsR10	59
8PEYT	SanchezR9	HendersonR25	WooR8	SaggeseR25	WetherholtR13	MayoR17	58
9THAR	O'BrienR17	RasmussenR8	WilliamsR11	KeaschallR21	Jr.R16	MarshR25	51
10RAGE	EwingR25	CamineroR5	HerreraR20	BasalloR19	JonesR25	ImanagaR9	49
11FRST ▼ thin	TolleR25	WheelerR8	RouppR25	MuncyR18	SkubalR1	RumfieldR25	45
12GARR ▼ thin	WalkerR25	MessickR18	CanzoneR25	GrayR7	SimpsonR9	DinglerR22	45

The bottom two rows are your trade marks — thin cupboards pay up for keepable pieces.

data: snap 4h · BP 15d · PL 15d · HL 12d · PSS 1h · BR 0h · FG 1h · proj 1h · closer 0h · oyster 2h · AAA-sc 13h · cookie ok