Miz-waukee’s Best — The Brandon League

Last updated Friday, September 04 · 01:04 PM ET

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☕ Morning Briefing

🏆 MIZ holds the top spot at 104.5 roto points, 20.0 clear of #2 Hit the Damn Ball You Bums — a comfortable cushion, though the lead dipped 0.5 pts since last update and two category edges deserve attention: W is dead-even with GoOs (one swing flips the point), and AVG is a razor-thin 0.000 behind them — close that gap for a free roto point.

⚡ Good day from the active roster: Miguel Vargas went 2-for-4 with 2 SB against the Astros, Jac Caglianone was 2-for-4, 1R, 2 RBI against the Marlins, and Louis Varland locked down a save with 2 K in a clean inning against the Guardians. Make sure Blake Snell is in your active lineup tonight — he's your scheduled starter.

🌡️ A couple of FA heat signals worth noting: Lars Nootbaar (LF, Ari) is the board's top FA verdict today — 86/99 contact heat on a trusted 26 BBE, .429 BA over his last 7, with an elite EV/xwOBAcon combo suggesting this is real. Juan Morillo (RP, Ari) draws the #2 FA verdict on category fit — 94th-percentile suppression on corroborated contact, confirmed closer role, and SV rank 3 with a 10-save cushion. Also, Jacob Lopez (+0.8σ underlying skill) was just dropped by Hit the Damn Ball You Bums and is now a free agent — worth a look given the source.

📰 The headline worth watching leaguewide: Shohei Ohtani is dealing with a left knee issue and right bicep pain, missed Thursday, and an IL stint has not been ruled out — his pitching may also be shut down, which would be a seismic fantasy blow for anyone carrying him in a two-way capacity. Garrett Crochet is tentatively progressing (bullpen session today off the mound for the first time since his shoulder/lat issues), but his return is expected to be as a reliever rather than a starter, so his SP value is effectively gone for the stretch run. Deyvison De Los Santos was recalled by Miami to the MLB roster and is available as a free agent if you need 3B depth.

ELIGIBILITYK. Schwarber 1B 7/10P. Ramirez 1B 4/10

Your standing

1stof 12

104.5 roto pts +20.0 clear of 2nd

-0.5 pts vs last update

Top Gaps

W (6.5) SB (7.0)

categories below mid-pack

Score change since last update

W -0.5

🎯 Category Pressure

Category ranks vs. the league.

Rank →

Δ to #1

947

1028

🥇

269

299

🥇

RBI

883

914

🥇

131

137

142

197

+60

AVG

.255

.256

.257

.259

+0.002

1181

1203

1347

+144

+12

ERA

3.41

3.33

🥇

WHIP

1.17

1.13

🥇

📅 Yesterday's MIZ Box Scores (2026-09-03)

Loading box scores…

🏥 IL Rehab Tracker

IL players · rehab game logs.

Joe Ryan (SP) IL15 on rehab
AAA2026-09-01 · 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K, 0 BB

On the IL, no rehab games yet: Spencer Schwellenbach (IL60 · watch).

📊 League Activity (last 24h)

All adds, drops, and trades across the 12 teams.

Team	Move
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	+ Zebby Matthews \| − Jacob Lopez

🏆 League Standings

Current roto points · 10,000-sim projected finish. FAAB = acquisition budget remaining.

100.0% to win the league · proj finish 1.0 · 102.4 roto pts

#	Team	Pts	FAAB	Win%	Proj Pts	Range	Proj Rk
1	MIZ Miz-waukee’s Best	104.5	$0	100.0%	102.4	99–105	1.0
2	FRAN Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	84.5	$59	0.0%	85.5	81–91	2.4
3	KRTZ Photogenic Nick Kurtz	79.5	$20	0.0%	83.3	78–89	2.9
4	PEYT Phil Swift's Flex Seal	77.5	$27	0.0%	80.6	75–86	3.5
5	GoOs I need Buck Showalter	69.0	$170	0.0%	68.6	63–73	5.5
6	BLOB Camp MVP	67.0	$168	0.0%	68.6	65–72	5.5
7	KNIG Team Knighton	62.5	$137	0.0%	60.8	57–65	7.2
8	THAR Phil Mickeltits	61.5	$176	0.0%	58.8	54–63	7.6
9	DORN Dorn and Associates LLC	47.0	$89	0.0%	47.3	43–52	9.6
10	GARR The Boys of Summer	47.0	$155	0.0%	48.4	44–53	9.4
11	RAGE Ramirez Against the Machine	40.0	$163	0.0%	34.6	32–38	12.0
12	FRST Worst2First	40.0	$154	0.0%	41.1	37–45	10.9

10,000 sims · fixed seed · noise CV talent 0.12 / idio 0.06 / team-cat 0.08 · assumes ATC rest-of-season rates

Your categories · projected roto points

R 12.0HR 12.0RBI 11.9SB 7.0AVG 9.5W 6.3SV 9.0K 10.8ERA 11.9WHIP 12.0

Winnable — push here: SB, AVG, W, SV.

🚨 Today's Streaming Board

157 of 200 GS · should be 175 · 18 behindBehind pace — stream aggressively

043 left · ~13.1/wk to cap · proj 179200

⏳ BP's post is late — Verdict pill is running on our score + Pitcher List for now (BP joins the top-2 once it posts).

Your starters + top FA streamers

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Blake Snell	vs WSH	AUTO START	—	6.4	#2	Elite arm, full auto-start endorsement.
Jared Jones	vs LAA	START	—	5.7	#8	Stuff profiles well against RHB-heavy lineup.
Keider Montero	@ CLE	DART	—	6.3	#14	Doubleheader spot start; WHIP excellence vs. light lineup.
Walker Buehler	vs NYY	DART	—	5.9	#20	Surprising longevity but blowup risk caps ceiling.
Kade Morris	@ SEA	SIT⚠ opener	—	4.1	—	average SEA lineup, friendly park, weak skills
Matt Wilkinson	@ NYM	SIT	—	5.1	#21	90 mph fastball limits ceiling significantly.
Cristian Javier	vs AZ	SIT	—	3.3	#15	Whiff rate rising but results still unproven; hedged.
Andrew Sears	@ CLE	SITleash	—	5.4	#25	Low pitch count last time, stuff lacks swing-and-miss.
Janson Junk	vs CHC	SITleash	—	4.6	#23	No whiffs, team won't let him go deep.
Ryan Johnson	@ PIT	SIT	—	3.6	#19	Rarely reaches five frames; ratio-only flier.
Merrill Kelly	@ HOU	SIT	—	2.7	#17	Regaining trust but RHB lineup is a concern.

Openers filtered: Daniel Lynch IV, Logan Allen, Trevor Williams

Your staff: 3.33 ERA / 1.13 WHIP · GS 157/200 — Behind pace — stream aggressively. Verdict = the best 2 of BP · our score · Pitcher List, averaged (low outlier dropped); before BP posts it's our score + PL. ⚠ = our matchup score dissented — eyeball that one. Tap a MIZ score for the reasoning.

Tomorrow · top 5 FA · Sat 9/5 · BP not out yet, so pill = our score + Pitcher List

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Brandon Pfaadt	@ HOU	START	—	5.4	#11	Best pitch separation ever; sinker/sweeper durability uncertain.
Zac Thornton	vs SF	DART	—	5.5	#17	Cushy matchup; effective four-seamer/cutter location to RHB.
Dustin May	@ CIN	DART	—	4.9	#16	Three abnormal outings; hoping rhythm returns here.
Yusei Kikuchi	@ PIT	DART	—	4.0	#15	Strong slider and strike-throwing last outing; LHP in PNC.
Anthony Molina	@ NYM	SIT⚠ opener	—	5.8	#25	Intriguing four-seamer; potential sneaky September streamer.

📼 Streamer Report Card

Does the Streaming Board actually work? Every pick it showed, frozen at pick time and graded off the real box score. Two scoreboards below: first our own calls — the Verdict ladder and MIZ (our matchup score, 0–10) — then the outside lists behind them, BP (RelieverRecon's daily BP Streamers post) and PL (Pitcher List's tier ranking). Grades are recomputed from raw lines on every build — the rubric can change, the history follows.

Last 30d · 349 starts graded over 29 days · GOOD+ 47% · BLOWUP 17% · agg ERA 4.38 · WHIP 1.34 · 4.5 K/start · 378 picks logged, 14 never started, 15 awaiting a box score — not graded

Grade mix · all 349 graded starts

GEM 63 GOOD 101 OK 124 BLOWUP 61

GEM6+ IP, ≤1 ER · or 6+ IP, 8+ K, ≤2 ERGOODquality start (6+ IP, ≤3 ER) · or 5+ IP, ≤2 EROKheld the line without earning GOODBLOWUP5+ ER · or under 4 IP with 4+ ERGOOD+ = GEM + GOOD. A pick whose starter never took the ball grades to nothing and leaves every rate below.

Cohort	n	GOOD+	BLOWUP	ERA
Q1 — Do our own calls work? · Verdict ladder + MIZ bands · live board rows only, nothing backfilled
Verdict · AUTO START	26	69%	15%	3.49
Verdict · START	46	54%	11%	4.07
Verdict · DART	92	46%	14%	4.61
Verdict · SIT	185	43%	21%	4.49
MIZ ≥ 5.0	117	61%	13%	3.66
MIZ 3.5–4.9	134	44%	19%	4.77
MIZ < 3.5	81	35%	21%	5.01
All live board picks	349	47%	17%	4.38
Q1 read — GOOD+ falls 69% · 54% · 46% · 43% down the rungs, but BLOWUP does not rise with it, and MIZ sorts: GOOD+ falls 61% · 44% · 35% from the top band down.
Q2 — Which outside list earns the weight? · BP and PL graded on their own published lists · mostly rebuilt from git
PL · Auto Start	26	65%	19%	4.10
PL · Probably Start	39	56%	13%	4.00
PL · Questionable Start	96	50%	17%	4.48
PL · Do Not Start	164	43%	20%	4.43
BP · Auto	11	36%	9%	4.74
BP · Likely	35	43%	17%	4.39
All graded picks	349	47%	17%	4.38
Q2 read — against the 47% all-picks baseline, PL's top tiers clear it (65% · 56%) and BP's top tiers are too thin to call (36% · 43% on n=11 · n=35).

Rows are overlapping lenses on the same picks, not a partition — one start can be a PL Auto Start and a Verdict SIT at once, so they never sum to the headline; each group is read against its own baseline row.

⚠ Dissent check — the override is ahead so far — 62% GOOD+ on n=8. Splits are picks the board started over our MIZ sit-call (vs 47% for all live picks).

Calibration — do our numbers mean anything? · full season, 2026-06-29→2026-09-03 · 936 graded picks · MIZ on 396, BP on 230, Verdict on 417

The ladder above asks whether the tiers sort. This asks the harder question: is the number a probability — when the board says 7, do 70% of those starts come back GOOD+? Bins are equal-count and merge until every one clears n=15; the walk-forward rows are scored against a model that only ever saw earlier days.

Score bin	n	mean	GOOD+	95% CI
MIZ score → P(GOOD+) · our matchup score, 0–10 · live rows only · n=396
MIZ 0.5–3.3	92	2.6	39%	30%–49%
MIZ 3.4–3.9	68	3.7	44%	33%–56%
MIZ 4.0–4.8	88	4.4	51%	41%–61%
MIZ 4.9–5.5	70	5.2	56%	44%–67%
MIZ 5.6–8.9	78	6.4	62%	50%–72%
All MIZ-scored picks	396	—	50%	—
BP score → P(GOOD+) · RelieverRecon's published rating · includes git-backfilled rows · n=230
BP 4.6–6.6	48	6.1	35%	23%–50%
BP 6.7–7.3	44	7.0	52%	38%–66%
BP 7.4–7.7	47	7.5	45%	31%–59%
BP 7.8–8.4	47	8.1	47%	33%–61%
BP 8.5–10.0	44	9.1	43%	30%–58%
All BP-scored picks	230	—	44%	—
Verdict tier → P(GOOD+) · the consensus call itself · live rows only
AUTO START	29	—	69%	51%–83%
START	55	—	56%	43%–69%
DART	109	—	49%	39%–58%
SIT	224	—	46%	40%–53%

Out-of-sample	n	value	vs
Walk-forward probability · logistic on MIZ, refit daily on earlier days only · from 2026-08-05 · 29 days
Brier — our probability	332	0.246	lower is better
Brier — flat base rate to date	332	0.255	we win by 0.009
Brier — verdict-tier history	332	0.255	we win by 0.010
Log loss — our probability	332	0.684	lower is better
ECE — our probability	332	0.062	5 equal-count bins
ECE bins · predicted p vs what actually happened
said 32%–47%	66	38%	off by 5%
said 47%–51%	67	42%	off by 7%
said 51%–56%	66	41%	off by 13%
said 56%–60%	67	58%	off by 0%
said 60%–74%	66	59%	off by 6%
Verdict — usable with caveats: ECE 0.062 over n=332 out-of-sample picks (≤0.03 well calibrated · ≤0.07 usable with caveats); edges the flat base rate on Brier (0.246 vs 0.255, a thin margin; log-loss ~coin-flip).

🔥 Today's Hitter Streamers

Top 10 FA bats for today's slate · score = split vs SP hand (35%) + SP softness (35%) + bat quality (15%) + trailing 15 days (10%) + park (5%) · facing an elite arm fades the score hard (feast on weak pitchers).

#	Hitter	Matchup	Why	Legs	Score
1	AUTO STARTMickey GasperC · 11% own	@ BAL · Baz RHP	szn .363 xwOBAL15: 1.395 OPS (42 PA)L14 contact +6.0 (.537 xwOBAcon, 26 BBE)usually bats 2nd (×1.10)beats 2 of 2 eligible startersBaz .310 allowed · avg SP0.959 OPS vs RHP (128 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	87
2	AUTO STARTLars NootbaarLF · 3% own	@ HOU · Javier RHP	szn .343 xwOBAL15: 0.964 OPS (33 PA)L14 contact +3.5 (.448 xwOBAcon, 26 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)fills OF needbeats 5 of 6 eligible startersJavier .346 allowed · soft SP0.754 OPS vs RHP (189 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	76
3	AUTO STARTBryan TorresRF · 0% own	@ COL · Feltner RHP	szn .297 xwOBAL14 contact +0.8 (.388 xwOBAcon, 12 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)fills OF needbeats 6 of 8 eligible startersFeltner .353 allowed · soft SP0.762 OPS vs RHP (103 AB)COL plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	69
4	AUTO STARTTyler TolbertCF · 1% own	vs TOR · Taillon RHP	szn .298 xwOBAusually bats 8th (×0.93)fills OF needbeats 7 of 9 eligible startersshort side vs RHP — 46% of ABTaillon .363 allowed · soft SP0.856 OPS vs RHP (52 AB)KC plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	67
5	AUTO STARTEsmerlyn ValdezRF · 14% own	vs LAA · Johnson RHP	szn .328 xwOBAL15: 0.727 OPS (34 PA)L14 contact +6.0 (.519 xwOBAcon, 14 BBE)usually bats 6th (×0.98)fills OF needbeats 4 of 6 eligible startersJohnson .356 allowed · soft SP0.748 OPS vs RHP (142 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	65
6	AUTO STARTAndrew Vaughn1B · 4% own	@ CIN · Lowder RHP	szn .336 xwOBAL15: 0.932 OPS (37 PA)L14 contact -2.3 (.318 xwOBAcon, 28 BBE)usually bats 5thbeats 3 of 4 eligible startersLowder .345 allowed · soft SP0.778 OPS vs RHP (162 AB)CIN plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	64
7	AUTO STARTJoc PedersonDH · 2% own	vs TB · Martinez RHP	szn .342 xwOBAL15: 0.750 OPS (29 PA)L14 contact -1.8 (.330 xwOBAcon, 17 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)beats 1 of 1 eligible startersMartinez .319 allowed · avg SP0.831 OPS vs RHP (324 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	62
8	AUTO STARTRyan WardLF · 0% own	vs WSH · Kent LHP	szn .316 xwOBAfills OF needbeats 6 of 10 eligible startersKent .351 allowed · soft SP	L15 bat SP L/R park	61
9	AUTO STARTMichael Massey2B · 1% own	vs TOR · Taillon RHP	szn .304 xwOBAL14 contact +1.4 (.401 xwOBAcon, 17 BBE)usually bats 6th (×0.98)beats 3 of 3 eligible startersTaillon .363 allowed · soft SP0.728 OPS vs RHP (266 AB)KC plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	60
10	STARTSpencer Horwitz1B · 4% own	vs LAA · Johnson RHP	szn .311 xwOBAL15: 0.415 OPS (49 PA)L14 contact -4.5 (.270 xwOBAcon, 34 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)beats 1 of 3 eligible startersJohnson .356 allowed · soft SP0.763 OPS vs RHP (274 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	58

Tiers vs YOUR lineup tonight — median starter 52, worst James Wood (20). AUTO START = beats the median eligible starter.

TBD starter = neutral SP + split legs until the probable posts (refresh upgrades it). Splits need 30+ AB vs that hand. IL bats are excluded; bats who rarely start against tonight's hand are dropped. Doubleheaders: legs average the ends he plays, and everyday bats get up to a ×1.50 volume boost. Lineup slot scales the score by expected PAs from the bat's usual spot (leadoff ×1.12 … 9-hole ×0.90, modal over the last ~10 played days) — his typical order, not today's card, since that posts after waivers run.

🎯 FA Hitters — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Kyle Schwarber

1Lars NootbaarLF · Ari · 2.8%HEATER

86/99 heat on trusted 26 BBE, .429 BA last 7, elite EV/xwOBAcon combo screams sustained production

Heat 86 · 26 BBE · ATC 64 PA · 2 HR · 1 SB · 0.245 · L7 0.429 · 2 HR · sim -0.0 pts

2Luis Robert Jr.

CF · Bal · 14.3% · HEATER

28 BBE trusted sample, 91.9 EV, 82/99 heat; SB upside hits MIZ's live SB gap at rank 6

Heat 82 · 28 BBE · ATC 66 PA · 2 HR · 3 SB · 0.233 · L7 0.118 · 1 HR · sim +0.1 pts

3Ty France

1B · SD · 14.5% · BEST VALUE

Best roto sim among non-heaters, .348 BA last 7, 3 HR/6 RBI — volume and production align

ATC 88 PA · 3 HR · 0 SB · 0.257 · L7 0.348 · 2 HR · sim +0.1 pts

4Xander Bogaerts

SS · SD · 18.6% · CATEGORY FIT

3 SB projection addresses live SB gap; .259 ATC AVG protects rank-3 AVG standing with real PA

ATC 87 PA · 2 HR · 3 SB · 0.259 · L7 0.263 · 0 HR · sim +0.2 pts

5Mickey Gasper

C · Bos · 11.3% · HEATER

84/99 heat, 0.537 xwOBAcon is elite; .294 BA last 7 with power; catcher scarcity amplifies value

Heat 84 · 26 BBE · ATC 25 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.225 · L7 0.294 · 2 HR · sim -0.0 pts

Passed on: Sean Murphy (81/99 heat, .429 BA, .549 xwOBAcon) is genuinely hot but only 16 BBE on the heat sample and 45 PA projected RoS limits volume upside enough that Gasper's slightly higher heat score and recent production edge him out.

💪 Hitter List Rankings

PL Top 150 hitters · your bats + top FAs.

On Hitter List · 17 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Hitter	MLB	Pos	Chg	AVG	xwOBA	HR	SB	RoS	Chu’s Take
16	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	DH	+3	.240	.362	40	3	127
18	Randy Arozarena	SEA	OF	-	.273	.349	22	21	123
21	Miguel Vargas	CHW	1B/3B	+19	.251	.387	29	15	113	Miguel Vargas has returned to the levels we saw early this summer and that really revs my engine. He’s one of those players who has shown…
36	Yandy Díaz	TB	1B	+3	.303	.355	21	3	122
46	Zach Neto	LAA	SS	+11	.236	.306	23	19	109	Zach Neto has been a monster over the last nine games, with 17 hits, 18 combined runs and RBI (a seven RBI night helps), and seven extra-…
59	Jac Caglianone	KC	1B/OF	+13	.284	.358	23	6	107	Jac Caglianone still hits a lot of grounders, but not quite as many as before (the rolling 15-game rate is a hair below 50%) and the stri…
72	Ty France	SD	1B	+12	.292	.330	20	1	106
77	Royce Lewis	MIN	1B/2B/3B	-15	.235	.316	14	14	103	Royce Lewis is streaky. We just gotta deal with that.
85	Cole Carrigg	COL	SS/OF	-22	.262	.320	6	8	68	The strikeouts have creeped up on Cole Carrigg , up to 32% over his last 11 games (which is, conveniently, exactly 50 plate appearances).…
106	Luis Robert Jr.	NYM	OF	+UR	.224	.317	11	2	95
109	Mickey Gasper	BOS	C	+UR	.277	.363	7	0	94	Mickey Gasper — Fantastic mustache, first of all. Second of all, the batted ball data suggests what’s happening of late is very real, tho…
115	Kaelen Culpepper	MIN	SS	+UR	.300	.312	3	0	91	Kaelen Culpepper — Culpepper puts a lot of balls in play and it’s working out so far. The BABIP Gods can be cruel, though. The 55 point g…
119	Rafael Flores Jr.	PIT	C/1B	+UR	.211	.333	7	0	83
133	Connor Norby	COL	1B/2B/3B	+UR	.219	.294	6	8	87	Connor Norby still has huge contact issues but the guy can hit the ball hard in the air and plays for Colorado so stream away.
135	Henry Bolte	ATH	OF	+UR	.277	.312	8	15	91	Henry Bolte is leading off again and should get some games in Sacramento soon, if you need a streamer.
143	Alejandro Kirk	TOR	C	+UR	.271	.304	8	1	110
145	Tyler Stephenson	CIN	C	-33	.249	.338	14	0	98
146	Ryan Jeffers	MIN	C	-29	.276	.357	13	1	118
148	Andruw Monasterio	BOS	2B/SS	-26	.247	.299	6	4	91
149	Dylan Crews	WSH	OF	-35	.216	.311	10	8	87
150	Luis Rengifo	SD	2B/3B/OF	-24	.240	.304	4	6	—
TS	Bryce Eldridge	SF	1B	—	.261	.357	15	1	99	Bryce Eldridge (1B, SFG) — Power prospects can often take a while to really shine.
TS	Jordan Lawlar	Ari	3B/OF	—	.276	.315	4	4	89	Jordan Lawlar (3B/OF, ARI) — I do not love that he’s sat against two of the three righties the D-Backs have faced, nor the strikeouts. He…
TS	Pedro Ramirez	ChC	2B/3B	—	.282	.304	4	7	91	Pedro Ramirez (2B/3B, CHC) — Hitting well when he plays, which is not very often.
TS	Walker Jenkins	Min	OF	—	.150	.262	1	1	92	Walker Jenkins (OF, MIN) — Jenkins will get the call today after a white-hot month in the triple-A. He’s worth a scoop in most leagues, E…
UR	James Wood	Wsh	OF	—	.265	.418	30	17	129	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Ralphy Velazquez	Cle	1B	—	—	—	—	—	83	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.

🔥 Heat Board

Hottest ACTIVE free-agent bats by contact quality, 8/21–9/3 · Heat = percentile vs all MLB bats over the same window (xwOBAcon 30 · EV 20 · Brl 20 · HH 15 · K 10 · BB 5) · min 15 BBE to qualify (smaller samples live in the HM rail) · IL excluded.

Lars Nootbaar

LF · Ari · 2.8% own · xwOBAcon .448 · EV 92.8 · Brl 15.4% · 26 BBE

▲ .069 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.231	6	27	29	2
L14	.300	2	8	4	0

Amed Rosario

3B · NYY · 0.6% own · xwOBAcon .436 · EV 94.8 · Brl 11.1% · 18 BBE

▲ .112 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.238	10	31	26	2
L14	.350	0	3	3	1

Mickey Gasper

C · Bos · 11.3% own · xwOBAcon .537 · EV 89.5 · Brl 19.2% · 26 BBE

▲ .078 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.277	7	21	21	0
L14	.355	4	7	7	0

Elias Diaz

C · Tex · 0.1% own · xwOBAcon .447 · EV 94.7 · Brl 25.0% · 20 BBE

▲ .019 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.231	6	24	17	0
L14	.250	1	4	3	0

Luis Robert Jr.

CF · Bal · 14.3% own · xwOBAcon .439 · EV 91.9 · Brl 21.4% · 28 BBE

▲ .039 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.224	11	26	26	2
L14	.263	4	7	7	0

Hao-Yu Lee

3B · Det · 1.4% own · xwOBAcon .434 · EV 94.3 · Brl 12.5% · 32 BBE

▼ .036 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.269	8	36	29	2
L14	.233	2	6	6	1

Sean Murphy

C · Atl · 1.0% own · xwOBAcon .549 · EV 89.7 · Brl 18.8% · 16 BBE

▲ .175 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.242	3	8	8	0
L14	.417	3	8	7	0

Brett Baty

3B · NYM · 2.5% own · xwOBAcon .452 · EV 90.9 · Brl 17.6% · 17 BBE

▲ .152 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.223	8	43	45	5
L14	.375	0	5	1	0

Justin Foscue

2B · Tex · 0.2% own · xwOBAcon .428 · EV 92.1 · Brl 20.0% · 25 BBE

▼ .026 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.261	11	28	22	0
L14	.235	3	5	5	0

Donovan Walton

2B · Oak · 0.4% own · xwOBAcon .430 · EV 88.1 · Brl 10.5% · 19 BBE

▼ .017 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.278	5	21	31	2
L14	.261	2	4	4	1

Honorable mention · hottest L7 (8/28–9/3), not yet on the board · tiny samples — peek, don't trust

TJ Friedl

CF · Cin

.658 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .333 L7

Ryan Vilade

RF · TB

.658 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .222 L7

Michael Massey

2B · KC

.543 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .375 L7

Leo Bernal

C · StL

.501 xwOBAcon

10 BBE · .308 L7

Brady House

3B · Wsh

.450 xwOBAcon

12 BBE · .400 L7

John Peck

SS · Det

.443 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .222 L7

🎯 FA Pitchers — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Andres Munoz

1Jose UrquidySP · ChW · 0.6%HEATER

95th-percentile suppression on 34 BBE (trusted); elite contact-quality allowed despite tiny ATC volume.

Supp 95 · 34 BBE · ATC 5.0 IP · 0 W · 5 K · 4.59 · 1.33 · sim -0.4 pts

2Juan Morillo

RP · Ari · 3.0% · CATEGORY FIT

94th-percentile suppression (12 BBE, corroborated), confirmed closer role, SV rank 3 has 10-save cushion but Saves are live.

Supp 94 · 12 BBE · ATC 8.0 IP · 0 W · 8 K · 3.83 · 1.35 · 1 SV · Closer · sim -0.3 pts

3Calvin Faucher

RP · Mia · 0.8% · FLOOR

Confirmed closer, 78th-percentile suppression on 20 BBE, 0.209 xwOBAcon-allowed; best ratio-safe saves floor available.

Supp 78 · 20 BBE · ATC 8.0 IP · 0 W · 8 K · 3.96 · 1.39 · 1 SV · Closer · sim -0.3 pts

4Andrew Painter

SP · Phi · 14.8% · BEST VALUE

4 GS remaining, 88th-percentile suppression on 50 BBE (trusted); most volume + contact suppression combo among SP options.

Supp 88 · 50 BBE · ATC 18.0 IP · 1 W · 15 K · 4.78 · 1.39 · sim -0.4 pts

5Hayden Wesneski

SP · Hou · 12.5% · UPSIDE

3 GS, 82nd-percentile suppression on 40 BBE, 1.26 WHIP projection; best ratio-SP fit behind Painter with cap room to burn.

Supp 82 · 40 BBE · ATC 20.0 IP · 1 W · 18 K · 4.40 · 1.26 · sim -0.4 pts

Passed on: Jared Jones ranks #8 on Pitcher List but L14 suppression is 37th-percentile on only 26 BBE with 0.394 xwOBAcon-allowed — recent contact quality directly threatens MIZ's #1 ERA/WHIP.

⚾ Pitcher List Rankings

PL Top 100 SP · your arms + top FAs.

On Pitcher List · 6 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Pitcher	MLB	Chg	ERA	xERA	K/9	RoS	Pollack’s Take
1	Jacob Misiorowski	MIL	-	1.97	2.08	13.2	3.32	Like a base set Charizard, Misiorowski’s not gonna stop being dope.
9	Blake Snell	LAD	+7	2.42	2.10	12.5	3.42	#HotSnellSummer is in full swing.
10	Dylan Cease	TOR	-1	2.25	2.73	12.7	3.45	Like a perfect burger without the condiments to hit all your macros, Cease gives you everything except for a stable WHIP due to his infla…
20	Kyle Harrison	MIL	+8	3.45	3.52	10.9	4.12	With a dominant outing, he muted our concerns, but Harrison’s still displaying decreased velocity and not commanding as well as he did in…
22	Eury Pérez	MIA	-4	3.72	4.04	9.6	3.87	Pérez has the stuff to be an ace, but there’s polishing to do in the command and game plan departments to unlock his full potential.
30	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	-4	3.54	3.65	6.5	4.19	Baseball’s premier innings eater hasn’t ruined his appetite.
38	Jacob Lopez	ATH	+6	4.71	3.40	8.8	4.63	It’s the 2025 hot streak all over again. Enjoy the ride, ya’ll!
39	Dustin May	MIL	-	4.69	4.21	8.5	4.09	May got Singled Out in a disastrous performance, but his stuff is still dope, and his new situation is ideal. Higher win chance, great de…
40	Walbert Ureña	LAA	-	2.85	3.40	8.8	4.54	Armed with upper-90s heaters and one of the best changeups in baseball, Ureña has hit few speed bumps. If that developing sweeper becomes…
43	Andrew Painter	PHI	+UR	5.55	4.33	7.8	4.78	From off The List to inside the Top 50, Painter has stolen our hearts with an improved heater (97+ mph with 17-18″ iVB) and emphasis on r…
45	Peter Lambert	HOU	-4	3.66	3.60	8.9	4.58	Lambert’s stumble last time was a product of being Singled Out . He’s been reliable all year, but we should be recognizing that Holly is …
46	Jared Jones	PIT	-8	4.83	3.84	10.3	3.99	The stuff is top-tier, but he’s still shaking off the Tommy John surgery rust with his command and the tight leash the Pirates have on hi…
54	Joey Cantillo	CLE	-8	3.81	4.04	9.6	4.05	Efficiency is a problem, but Cantillo is doing everything we want. More curveballs, faster fastballs, and supportive cutters. Throw more …
56	Shane Bieber	TOR	+14	4.37	5.95	7.1	4.19	Bieber is back in business. His heater looked awesome in The Trop, and his offspeed pitches are being the CSW monsters they need to be to…
57	Tyler Mahle	ATL	-	4.25	4.18	8.7	4.10	Mahle’s command and velocity have been stellar since returning from the IL in late June. He’s got an even better situation pitching in At…
58	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	-	3.49	3.76	5.9	4.60	Despite what the line suggests, Pfaadt’s last start wasn’t an end to his Vargas Rule . It was a textbook Careful, Icarus with a three-run…

🔒 Closer Chart

Save targets · roles + regression flags.

BLUEEntrenched closer (highest leverage)GREENNext man up / committee pieceYELLOWSetup, 8th-inning leverageORANGESpeculative / lower priorityMAGENTAHigh-upside future / multi-inning

	Pitcher	Tm	Role	SV	SVHD	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K/9	Rtg / Own
Yours on the chart
—	Andrés Muñoz	Seattle Mariners	CL	24	24	50.3	4.29	1.19	3.27 ↓	14.5	5.0 · —
—	Louis Varland	Toronto Blue Jays	CL	32	37	69.7	1.16	0.99	2.19 ↑	11.1	5.0 · —
Top 5 FA closers (by team rating)
—	Andrew Kittredge	Baltimore Orioles	CL	9	18	44.0	3.27	1.39	4.04	7.6	4.0 · 4%
—	Jacob Webb	Chicago Cubs	CL	9	17	60.0	3.15	1.23	4.06	9.8	4.0 · 6%
—	Steven Cruz HLR	Kansas City Royals	CL	6	11	52.7	4.27	1.23	4.09	9.7	3.5 · 1%
	Elvis Alvarado	The Athletics	CL	5	13	45.0	4.00	1.18	4.57	10.8	3.0 · 3%
	Juan Morillo	Arizona Diamondbacks	CL	3	20	55.3	2.11	1.05	2.30	10.4	3.0 · 3%

ERA cell: green <3.00 · red >4.50. xERA arrow: ↓ ERA likely to fall (buy) · ↑ ERA likely to rise (sell). Triggers when |xERA−ERA| ≥ 1.00.

✂️ Cut List

Drop priority · value, form, pedigree, role.

51	Royce Lewis 3B · Min low TV (18) sim cost ~0	TV 18 Rd 13
26	Kyle Harrison SP · Mil mid TV (44); cold last 7d; UFDA — easy to drop; BUT top-tier keeper sim cost ~0	TV 44 UFDA
18	Ryan Jeffers C · Min mid TV (36); BUT top-tier keeper; BUT young breakout signal sim cost ~0	TV 36 UFDA
15	Blake Snell SP · LAD BUT strong RoS (3.42 ERA) sim cost ~0	TV 80 Rd 8
11	Sandy Alcantara SP · Mia BUT solid keeper sim cost ~0	TV 72 Rd 14

Higher score = drop sooner — top 5 by score, and only 8+ reaches the board, so the number has no ceiling and is only comparable within this list. The sim line is a roto-sim marginal (cut vs. keep on one shared set of draws), not a measured cost. Pedigree + named closers shielded.

🌱 Stash List

PL's top prospects · grab them cheap.

Hitters

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 23: Top 10 Hitting Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + PSS + PFV + age + 40-man + path.

20 available — 1 yours

R. Velazquez YOURS

1B/C · CLE · AA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

28·2·.292

J. Tibbs III

OF · LAD · AAA · 23 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

27·8·.294

S. Thompson

OF · COL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

12·16·.298

B. Davidson

OF · SFG · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

September

Szn

26·19·.278

S. Walcott

3B/SS · TEX · AA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

8·8·.318

J. Melton

OF · TB · AAA · 25 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

7·26·.280

C. Cannarella

OF · MIA · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

15·21·.333

S. King

SS/2B/3B · WSN · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

19·14·.315

Z. Hope

OF · DET · AA · 21 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

27·24·.282

M. Anderson

2B · DET · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

16·5·.306

R. Ward

LF · LAD · AAA · 28 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

20·7·.252

J. Made

SS · MIL · AA · 19 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

13·36·.267

H. Mendez

OF · MIN · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

12·4·.278

C. Ingle

C · CLE · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

18·2·.281

M. Arroyo

SS · SEA · AAA · 21 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

18·17·.284

P. Harber

3B · SFG · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

'27

Szn

17·4·.273

J. Long

1B · CHC · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

13·3·.276

K. Alderman

OF · MIA · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

18·10·.256

R. Clifford

1B · NYM · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

16·8·.176

D. Crisantes

2B/3B · ARI · AAA · 21 · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

blocked

Szn

9·0·.291

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

Pitchers

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 23: Top 10 Pitching Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + L3 quality + FV + age + 40-man + path.

27 available

B. Mautz

SP · STL · AAA · 24 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

99K·4.37

L. Perales

SP · WSN · AAA · 23 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

102K·4.17

H. Smith

SP · CHW · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

August 1st

Szn

103K·3.76

C. Seymour

SP · SFG · AAA · 27 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

87K·3.95

K. Curtis

SP · PIT · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

115K·4.53

R. Snelling

SP · MIA · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

46K·2.38

R. Sloan

SP · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

117K·3.50

J. Tong

SP · NYM · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

133K·4.46

T. Bremner

SP · LAA · AA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

92K·4.08

T. Johnson

SP · TBR · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

84K·3.03

O. Murphy

SP · ATL · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

122K·3.74

M. Bratt

SP · ARI · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

82K·3.92

M. Forret

SP · BAL · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

121K·3.83

A. Kelly

SP · PIT · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

76K·4.33

J. Ritchie

SP · ATL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

118K·3.88

B. Garrett

SP · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

June 1st

Szn

105K·3.95

T. McDougal

SP · CHW · AAA · 23 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

49K·4.53

D. Davalillo

SP · TEX · AAA · 24 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

94K·5.15

C. Dana

SP · LAA · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

80K·5.53

J. Wenninger

SP · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

110K·4.23

M. Ullola

SP · HOU · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

97K·4.29

B. Hopkins

SP · TBR · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

117K·5.34

C. Crow

SP · MIL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

101K·3.74

G. Wood

SP · PHI · AA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

134K·4.40

T. Gibson

SP · BAL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

98K·4.98

D. Sandlin

SP · CHW · MLB · 25 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

88K·3.46

L. Braun

SP · ATL · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

104K·3.64

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

🔭 12 not a 2026 factor — Bryce Mayer · Anthony Eyanson · Liam Doyle · Jamie Arnold · Christian Zazueta · Daniel Eagen · Joseph Dzierwa · Tyson Hardin · Jaxon Wiggins · Jonathan Santucci · Jurrangelo Cijntje · Karson Milbrandt

💼 Trades

Buy-low targets · league trade history.

Top Buy-Lows

Rebound candidates · suggested offers.

Hitters

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Trent Grisham CF · NYY · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.3σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.211 / xBA 0.245 · xwOBA 0.337	26%	114 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Henry Bolte RF + Royce Lewis 3B · two-piece package (TV 22 vs target 27)
📈 BUY-LOW	Juan Soto RF · NYM · GARR · jregarris +1.2σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.281 / xBA 0.297 · xwOBA 0.422	100%	159 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Kyle Schwarber DH · comparable value (TV 100 vs target 100)
📈 BUY-LOW	JJ Bleday CF · Cin · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.2σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.222 / xBA 0.246 · xwOBA 0.350	23%	104 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Henry Bolte RF + Royce Lewis 3B · two-piece package (TV 22 vs target 27)
📈 BUY-LOW	Heriberto Hernandez LF · Mia · FRAN · francisw789 +1.2σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.232 / xBA 0.248 · xwOBA 0.354	11%	99 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 35 vs target 33)
↑ mild buy	Taylor Ward LF · Sea · GoOs · My Best Guys +0.7σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.226 / xBA 0.241 · xwOBA 0.334	59%	118 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Zach Neto SS · comparable value (TV 60 vs target 60)
↑ mild buy	Ronald Acuna Jr. RF · Atl · GoOs · My Best Guys +0.9σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.243 / xBA 0.252 · xwOBA 0.357	98%	136 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Blake Snell SP · comparable value (TV 80 vs target 86)
↑ mild buy	Dominic Canzone RF · Sea · GARR · jregarris +0.7σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.255 / xBA 0.269 · xwOBA 0.358	12%	114 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 35 vs target 34)
📈 BUY-LOW	Corey Seager SS · Tex · PEYT · simplejack2k9 +1.5σ buy-low · SS — modest fit · BA 0.223 / xBA 0.250 · xwOBA 0.354	59%	130 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Jac Caglianone RF + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 52 vs target 58)
📈 BUY-LOW	Mike Trout OF · LAA · KNIG · TKHOO +1.4σ buy-low · OF — fits a need · BA 0.239 / xBA 0.251 · xwOBA 0.377	92%	127 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Sandy Alcantara SP · comparable value (TV 72 vs target 77)
↑ mild buy	Jarren Duran LF · Bos · RAGE · glhoward40 +0.8σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.204 / xBA 0.236 · xwOBA 0.298	67%	101 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Jac Caglianone RF · comparable value (TV 52 vs target 57)

Pitchers

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Kodai Senga SP · NYM · KRTZ · FratSkins +1.3σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 7.36 vs xERA 5.09	10%	3.96 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Ralphy Velazquez 1B · comparable value (TV 2 vs target 4)
📈 BUY-LOW	Kade Anderson SP · Sea · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.5σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 5.40 vs xERA 3.15	25%	4.62 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Henry Bolte RF + Royce Lewis 3B + +$4 FAAB · two-piece package (TV 22 vs target 29)
↑ mild buy	Freddy Peralta SP · TB · KNIG · TKHOO +0.7σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.96 vs xERA 3.90	73%	4.01 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Jac Caglianone RF + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 52 vs target 58)
↑ mild buy	Bryce Miller SP · Sea · BLOB · crenshawh19 +0.5σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.01 vs xERA 3.32	31%	4.10 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Kyle Harrison SP · comparable value (TV 44 vs target 48)

League History

Completed trades · frozen grade at the deal + live grade now.

Side	Sent	At deal	Now	Trend
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Andy Pages	A- +7	A+ +45	▲ up
Camp MVP	Pete Crow-Armstrong	C -7	F -45	▼ down
Team Knighton ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Team Knighton	Matthew Boyd	F -22	F -23
Camp MVP	Kenley Jansen	A+ +22	A+ +23
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Worst2First 2026-08-10
Miz-waukee’s Best	Charlie Condon, Payton Tolle	A+ +50	A+ +33	▼ down
Worst2First	Dylan Cease	F -50	F -33	▲ up
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Dorn and Associates LLC 2026-08-05
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Travis Bazzana, George Lombard Jr., Nolan McLean	A+ +144	A+ +106	▼ down
Dorn and Associates LLC	Jackson Chourio, Jhoan Duran, Brice Turang, David Bednar	F -144	F -106	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-07-31
Miz-waukee’s Best	Samuel Basallo, Kade Anderson	A- +8	A+ +20	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine	Blake Snell	C -8	F -20	▼ down
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Team Knighton 2026-07-23
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Jo Adell, Jacob deGrom	F -49	F -63	▼ down
Team Knighton	Trea Turner	A+ +49	A+ +63	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine ⇄ Miz-waukee’s Best 2026-07-19
Ramirez Against the Machine	Sandy Alcantara	F -42	F -68	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best	Josh Jung	A+ +42	A+ +68	▲ up
I need Buck Showalter ⇄ Hit the Damn Ball You Bums 2026-06-19
I need Buck Showalter	Nasim Nunez	A+ +28	A +11	▼ down
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Justin Wrobleski	F -28	D -11	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ The Boys of Summer 2026-06-12
Miz-waukee’s Best	Chandler Simpson	A +10	A- +7	▼ down
The Boys of Summer	$30 FAAB	D -10	C -7	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-05-01
Miz-waukee’s Best	Kenley Jansen	—	A- +7
Camp MVP	$30 FAAB	A- +3	C -7	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-04-22
Miz-waukee’s Best	Nathan Eovaldi, $70 FAAB	—	F -16
Ramirez Against the Machine	Jac Caglianone	A+ +60	A+ +16	▼ down

🔻 Sell-High — My Roster

Surface line outrunning the underlying skill — trade-value peaks. σ = his surface-stat z-score minus his Statcast-skill z-score, both against the league reference for his side — bigger σ = further ahead of the skill. Pair with Buy-Low Targets.

Verdict	Player	Own	Surface vs expected	Contact	2027 keeper
↓ SHOP	Henry Bolte RF · Oak 0.66σ sell-high · RF · BA 0.277 / xBA 0.247 · xwOBA 0.312 — test the market, don't force it	4%	BA 0.277 / xBA 0.247 +.030 wOBA 0.333 / xwOBA 0.312 +.021	HH 48.1% · Brl/PA 4.5%	25th · +2 rds vs mkt
↓ SHOP	Yandy Diaz 1B · TB 0.61σ sell-high · 1B · BA 0.303 / xBA 0.286 · xwOBA 0.355 — test the market, don't force it	93%	BA 0.303 / xBA 0.286 +.017 wOBA 0.365 / xwOBA 0.355 +.010	HH 47.9% · Brl/PA 5.5%	7th · +1 rd vs mkt
HOLD — KEEPER PRICE	Louis Varland RP · Tor 0.46σ sell-high · RP · ERA 1.16 vs xERA 2.19 — only move for keeper-grade return	87%	ERA 1.16 / xERA 2.19 -1.03	Brl 4.2% allowed	22nd · +16 rds vs mkt

👥 Your Roster

Your roster · news + buy/sell signals.

News (last 24h)

Player news · last 24h.

No news on your roster in the last 24 hours.

Leverage Buys/Sells

Buy/sell windows · surface vs. underlying.

Hitters

Player	Pos	MLB	BA	xBA	wOBA	xwOBA	Brl%	Own%	Signal
James Wood	LF	Wsh	0.265	0.276	0.394	0.418	100.0	99.0	📈 BUY-LOW
Miguel Vargas	3B	ChW	0.251	0.270	0.367	0.387	90.0	95.1	📈 BUY-LOW
Kyle Schwarber	DH	Phi	0.240	0.237	0.372	0.362	98.0	99.5	📈 BUY-LOW
Bryce Eldridge	1B	SF	0.261	0.258	0.352	0.357	77.0	11.2	↑ mild buy
Zach Neto	SS	LAA	0.236	0.210	0.328	0.306	76.0	61.5	fair
Jac Caglianone	RF	KC	0.284	0.281	0.357	0.358	91.0	61.9	fair
Yandy Diaz	1B	TB	0.303	0.286	0.365	0.355	48.0	92.7	↓ mild fade
Cole Carrigg	CF	Col	0.262	0.253	0.338	0.320	—	11.7	fair
Ryan Jeffers	C	Min	0.276	0.255	0.381	0.357	74.0	41.1	fair
Randy Arozarena	LF	Sea	0.273	0.259	0.368	0.349	54.0	93.9	fair
Henry Bolte	RF	Oak	0.277	0.247	0.333	0.312	47.0	4.4	↓ mild fade
Kaelen Culpepper	SS	Min	0.300	0.251	0.356	0.312	—	6.8	fair
Royce Lewis	3B	Min	0.235	0.243	0.309	0.316	74.0	14.6	↑ mild buy
Walker Jenkins	CF	Min	0.150	0.155	0.292	0.262	—	8.1	—
Jordan Lawlar	3B	Ari	0.276	0.255	0.355	0.315	—	2.8	fair
Ralphy Velazquez	1B	Cle	—	—	—	—	—	0.8	—
Pedro Ramirez	3B	ChC	0.282	0.261	0.338	0.304	—	3.8	fair

Pitchers

Pitcher	Pos	MLB	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K-BB%	xwOBA-a	Brl%-a	Own%	Signal
Blake Snell	SP	LAD	26.0	2.42	1.08	2.10	22.0	0.225	1.7	90.3	↑ mild buy
Andres Munoz	RP	Sea	50.3	4.29	1.19	3.27	28.9	0.281	9.2	79.8	↑ mild buy
Joe Ryan IL15	SP	Min	125.7	4.08	1.15	3.50	21.2	0.290	10.5	89.4	fair
Jacob Misiorowski	SP	Mil	155.0	1.97	0.79	2.08	31.8	0.224	3.8	99.5	fair
Sandy Alcantara	SP	Mia	195.7	3.54	1.19	3.65	11.3	0.296	5.1	90.3	fair
Kyle Harrison	SP	Mil	107.0	3.45	1.20	3.52	22.6	0.291	7.7	68.7	fair
Dylan Cease	SP	Tor	156.3	2.25	1.04	2.73	25.1	0.257	5.1	99.3	fair
Eury Perez	SP	Mia	135.3	3.72	1.18	4.04	15.5	0.310	10.2	76.0	fair
Louis Varland	RP	Tor	69.7	1.16	0.99	2.19	24.6	0.230	4.2	86.6	↓ mild fade

📰 MLB News — Top Fantasy Stories

🔒 Keepers — 2027 Slate

Peter's model (additive): rounds-saved (cost arbitrage spine) + current skill + career-grade pedigree + sample stability + Statcast over/under-performance trend, with age-decline (33+), closer/RP, and top-30 talent adjustments. Heavy on bargain-hunting.
Claude's model (multiplicative dynasty index): EFV(2027) = (3 + skill + upside) × age_mult × pos_mult; score = EFV − cost_replacement − mookie-lock. Compounds age curve and position scarcity.
Sorted by consensus rank (average of both models). MLB-inactive players surfaced in 🚑 Return Watch below.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict	Notes
1.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	21st	#1 (+24.4)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51	UFDA-G FV 55
2.0	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	22nd	#2 (+21.4)	#2 (+27.1)	S · $27
3.5	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	25th	#3 (+19.7)	#4 (+15.8)	A · $16	UFDA
4.5	Bryce Eldridge	1B · 20yo	25th	#4 (+16.2)	#5 (+14.4)	A · $14	UFDA FV 55
4.5	Zach Neto	SS · 25yo	10th	#6 (+13.7)	#3 (+16.1)	A · $16
5.5	Henry Bolte	RF · 21yo	25th	#5 (+14.8)	#6 (+12.0)	A · $12	UFDA FV 40
7.0	Dylan Cease	SP · 30yo	4th	#7 (+11.9)	#7 (+11.7)	A · $12
8.5	Jac Caglianone	RF · 22yo	21st	#8 (+10.2)	— (+6.8)	B · $7	UFDA-G FV 55
8.5	Eury Perez	SP · 23yo	20th	— (+9.5)	#8 (+7.3)	B · $7	UFDA-G

NEW UFDA cap: Peter 3/3 · Claude 3/3 · BOTH = top 8 in both models. Peter only = his model values cost surplus more; Claude only = mine values projection / position scarcity more.

🚑 Return watch — would be keeper-eligible if they get MLB action this year. Rank shown is hypothetical (where they'd slot if eligible).

Player	Pos · Age	Cost	Peter (if elig.)	Claude (if elig.)
Ralphy Velazquez	1B · 19yo	25th	#17 (-2.0)	#13 (+1.4)

Updated Fri Sep 4 · 1:04 PM ET

🌍 League-Wide Top Keepers

Top 10 keepers · all 12 teams · both models. Yours in green.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	Team	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict
2.5	Jesus Luzardo	SP · 28yo	KNIG	21st	#1 (+27.9)	#4 (+33.4)	S · $33
2.5	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	MIZ	21st	#4 (+24.4)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51
3.0	Bryan Baker	RP · 31yo	DORN	25th	#3 (+25.1)	#3 (+38.7)	S · $39
4.0	Jordan Walker	RF · 24yo	GARR	25th	#2 (+25.4)	#6 (+29.9)	S · $30
5.0	Andy Pages	CF · 25yo	BLOB	20th	#5 (+24.1)	#5 (+32.7)	S · $33
5.5	Cam Schlittler	SP · 24yo	KRTZ	19th	#9 (+19.5)	#2 (+40.8)	S · $41
6.5	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	MIZ	22nd	#6 (+21.4)	#7 (+27.1)	S · $27
9.0	Jose Soriano	SP · 27yo	BLOB	25th	#7 (+21.3)	— (+18.5)	S · $18
9.5	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	MIZ	25th	#8 (+19.7)	— (+15.8)	A · $16
9.5	Gavin Williams	SP · 26yo	THAR	11th	— (+12.0)	#8 (+23.6)	S · $24
10.0	Junior Caminero	3B · 22yo	RAGE	5th	— (+12.3)	#9 (+23.3)	S · $23
10.5	Nolan McLean	SP · 23yo	DORN	20th	#10 (+19.5)	— (+15.2)	A · $15
10.5	Riley O'Brien	RP · 31yo	THAR	17th	— (+11.6)	#10 (+21.9)	S · $22

Updated Fri Sep 4 · 1:04 PM ET

🏚️ Keeper Cupboards

Every team's six best keepers · shade = dual-model consensus value. Cupboard score weights the top four heavily (the slots that get kept), keepers 5–8 taper. 100 = league's best cupboard.

Team	K1	K2	K3	K4	K5	K6	Cupboard
1MIZ	MisiorowskiR21	VarlandR22	VargasR25	EldridgeR25	NetoR10	BolteR25	100
2BLOB	PagesR20	SorianoR25	LopezR20	ScottR25	TaylorR25	LileR15	81
3DORN	BakerR25	McLeanR20	RiceR20	BazzanaR25	PerdomoR21	AnthonyR18	79
4KRTZ	SchlittlerR19	BengeR25	StewartR10	McGonigleR17	BurkeR25	SanojaR25	69
5KNIG	LuzardoR21	MartinezR25	JensenR20	AbreuR15	deGromR13	ChapmanR11	65
6THAR	WilliamsR11	MarshR25	RasmussenR8	O'BrienR17	Jr.R16	KeaschallR21	65
7FRAN	LatzR25	McCarthyR25	CavalliR21	AntonacciR25	BurnsR5	BradishR21	61
8GoOs	GoodmanR21	GriffinR25	BradleyR25	BurlesonR9	GomezR25	MeidrothR25	53
9GARR	WalkerR25	MessickR18	DinglerR22	GrayR7	CanzoneR25	HancockR25	53
10RAGE	EwingR25	CamineroR5	BasalloR19	JonesR25	HerreraR20	ImanagaR9	48
11PEYT ▼ thin	SanchezR9	HendersonR25	WooR8	WetherholtR13	MayoR17	CruzR1	44
12FRST ▼ thin	TolleR25	WheelerR8	RouppR25	MuncyR18	SkubalR1	RumfieldR25	36

The bottom two rows are your trade marks — thin cupboards pay up for keepable pieces.

data: snap 5h · BP 10d · PL 10d · HL 7d · PSS 9h · BR 0h · FG 3h · proj 3h · closer 0h · oyster 4h · AAA-sc 14h · cookie ok