Miz-waukee’s Best — The Brandon League

Last updated Thursday, September 10 · 04:21 AM ET

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☕ Morning Briefing

🏆 MIZ sits atop the 12-team standings at 104.0 roto points, a comfortable 18.0 ahead of Phil Swift's Flex Seal at #2 — though Flex Seal's +10.0-pt surge over the last 7 days is worth tracking.

⚡ Your guys had a big night: Kyle Schwarber (1-5, HR, 4 RBI vs Astros), Zach Neto (2-3, HR, 3 RBI vs Red Sox), and Bryce Eldridge (2-4, 3 RBI vs Cardinals) all drove in multiple runs, while Henry Bolte chipped in a solo HR vs the Blue Jays — and Andres Munoz locked it down with a clean save (1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 2 K vs Rangers), which is especially timely given you're just 1 SV behind KRTZ for a roto point.

📊 Two category alerts: SB is dead level with THAR — one stolen base in either direction flips that roto point — and the Trevor Megill closer situation in Milwaukee bears watching; his role-security signal shifted to uncertain (magenta → ?) though no personnel change has been made, and he's owned by GoOs regardless.

🔭 On the wire, Sterlin Thompson (RI 87, available FA) went 3-for-5 with a HR at AAA vs Reno; worth a look if you need SB upside. Quinn Mathews (+0.7σ underlying skill) was just dropped by Hit the Damn Ball You Bums and is now a free agent. Early contact-heat signals are flashing on Ty France (L7: 78/99, 0.477 xwOBAcon) and Michael Conforto (L7: 77/99, 0.492 xwOBAcon) — small samples, not yet Heat Board-official, but worth noting.

📰 Around the league, Pete Fairbanks has been activated off the IL by Miami (owned by FRAN), potentially reshuffling that bullpen's closer picture. Michael Soroka is back for Arizona (owned by GoOs). Chris Murphy was recalled by the White Sox and is a free agent if you need SP depth, and Duncan Davitt (claimed by San Francisco off waivers from Atlanta, available FA) is another arm worth a glance for ratio help.

ELIGIBILITYK. Schwarber 1B 8/10

Your standing

1stof 12

104.0 roto pts +18.0 clear of 2nd

no change vs last update

Top Gaps

W (6.5) SB (7.5)

categories below mid-pack

🎯 Category Pressure

Category ranks vs. the league.

Rank →

Δ to #1

977

1061

🥇

284

312

🥇

RBI

912

959

🥇

136

145

152

202

+57

AVG

.254

.257

.260

+0.003

1234

1249

1399

+150

+15

+13

ERA

3.48

3.41

🥇

WHIP

1.17

1.15

🥇

📅 Yesterday's MIZ Box Scores (2026-09-09)

Loading box scores…

🏥 IL Rehab Tracker

IL players · rehab game logs.

On the IL, no rehab games yet: Spencer Schwellenbach (IL60 · watch).

📊 League Activity (last 24h)

All adds, drops, and trades across the 12 teams.

Team	Move
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	+ Tyler Mahle \| − Sean Burke
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	+ Andre Pallante \| − Quinn Mathews
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	+ Jake Bennett \| − Brandon Young

🏆 League Standings

Current roto points · 10,000-sim projected finish. FAAB = acquisition budget remaining.

100.0% to win the league · proj finish 1.0 · 104.0 roto pts

#	Team	Pts	FAAB	Win%	Proj Pts	Range	Proj Rk
1	MIZ Miz-waukee’s Best	104.0	$0	100.0%	104.0	102–106	1.0
2	PEYT Phil Swift's Flex Seal	86.0	$25	0.0%	87.8	84–92	2.2
3	KRTZ Photogenic Nick Kurtz	83.0	$16	0.0%	83.9	80–88	3.1
4	FRAN Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	80.5	$51	0.0%	83.0	79–87	3.4
5	BLOB Camp MVP	67.0	$168	0.0%	69.4	66–72	5.1
6	GoOs I need Buck Showalter	65.5	$170	0.0%	65.7	62–70	5.9
7	KNIG Team Knighton	61.0	$137	0.0%	58.4	55–62	7.3
8	THAR Phil Mickeltits	59.5	$176	0.0%	57.7	54–61	7.5
9	GARR The Boys of Summer	46.0	$155	0.0%	47.0	44–51	9.3
10	DORN Dorn and Associates LLC	45.0	$89	0.0%	43.7	41–47	10.4
11	FRST Worst2First	43.5	$154	0.0%	44.8	42–48	10.0
12	RAGE Ramirez Against the Machine	39.0	$163	0.0%	34.5	32–37	12.0

10,000 sims · fixed seed · noise CV talent 0.12 / idio 0.06 / team-cat 0.08 · assumes ATC rest-of-season rates

Your categories · projected roto points

R 12.0HR 12.0RBI 12.0SB 8.0AVG 10.0W 6.2SV 9.0K 11.0ERA 11.9WHIP 11.9

Winnable — push here: SB, W, SV.

🚨 Today's Streaming Board

164 of 200 GS · should be 182 · 18 behindBehind pace — stream aggressively

036 left · ~14.8/wk to cap · proj 181200

⏳ BP's post is late — Verdict pill is running on our score + Pitcher List for now (BP joins the top-2 once it posts).

Top FA streamers today

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Jared Jones	@ CWS	START	—	5.7	#5	Heater targets LHB-heavy White Sox lineup well.
Cristian Javier	@ PHI	DART	—	4.1	#7	One good outing; prove it's repeatable.
Martin Perez	vs TB	SIT	—	2.7	#8	Streaming for a cheap win, low ceiling.
Luis Castillo	vs. PIT	SIT	—	—	#9	Matchup vs. Pirates still not enough to start.
Ryan Feltner	@ NYY	SIT	—	3.8	#10	Hard pass, no hedging.

Openers filtered: Hagen Smith

Your staff: 3.41 ERA / 1.15 WHIP · GS 164/200 — Behind pace — stream aggressively. Verdict = the best 2 of BP · our score · Pitcher List, averaged (low outlier dropped); before BP posts it's our score + PL. ⚠ = our matchup score dissented — eyeball that one. Tap a MIZ score for the reasoning.

Tomorrow · top 5 FA · Fri 9/11 · BP not out yet, so pill = our score + Pitcher List

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Anthony Molina	vs SD	START⚠ opener	—	6.7	—	average SD lineup, hot recent form, strong skills
Jeffrey Springs	vs SEA	SIT	—	4.1	—	soft SEA lineup, weak skills, shaky recent form
Matthew Liberatore	vs CWS	SIT	—	3.1	—	tough CWS lineup, shaky recent form, weak skills
Chris Bassitt	@ TOR	SIT	—	3.0	—	average TOR lineup, weak skills, shaky recent form
Ryan Gusto	vs LAD	SIT	—	2.9	—	tough LAD lineup, weak skills, friendly park

📼 Streamer Report Card

Does the Streaming Board actually work? Every pick it showed, frozen at pick time and graded off the real box score. Two scoreboards below: first our own calls — the Verdict ladder and MIZ (our matchup score, 0–10) — then the outside lists behind them, BP (RelieverRecon's daily BP Streamers post) and PL (Pitcher List's tier ranking). Grades are recomputed from raw lines on every build — the rubric can change, the history follows.

Last 30d · 347 starts graded over 29 days · GOOD+ 46% · BLOWUP 19% · agg ERA 4.49 · WHIP 1.35 · 4.4 K/start · 370 picks logged, 18 never started, 5 awaiting a box score — not graded

Grade mix · all 347 graded starts

GEM 62 GOOD 98 OK 121 BLOWUP 66

GEM6+ IP, ≤1 ER · or 6+ IP, 8+ K, ≤2 ERGOODquality start (6+ IP, ≤3 ER) · or 5+ IP, ≤2 EROKheld the line without earning GOODBLOWUP5+ ER · or under 4 IP with 4+ ERGOOD+ = GEM + GOOD. A pick whose starter never took the ball grades to nothing and leaves every rate below.

Cohort	n	GOOD+	BLOWUP	ERA
Q1 — Do our own calls work? · Verdict ladder + MIZ bands · live board rows only, nothing backfilled
Verdict · AUTO START	26	69%	19%	3.74
Verdict · START	48	58%	10%	3.99
Verdict · DART	92	42%	18%	4.79
Verdict · SIT	181	41%	22%	4.60
MIZ ≥ 5.0	110	62%	15%	3.84
MIZ 3.5–4.9	146	39%	22%	5.01
MIZ < 3.5	74	39%	19%	4.68
All live board picks	347	46%	19%	4.49
Q1 read — GOOD+ falls 69% · 58% · 42% · 41% down the rungs, but BLOWUP does not rise with it, and MIZ does not sort: 62% · 39% · 39% from the top band down.
Q2 — Which outside list earns the weight? · BP and PL graded on their own published lists · mostly rebuilt from git
PL · Auto Start	26	62%	23%	4.42
PL · Probably Start	46	57%	15%	4.08
PL · Questionable Start	101	49%	20%	4.58
PL · Do Not Start	147	42%	20%	4.52
BP · Auto	7	57%	0%	2.82
BP · Likely	28	46%	18%	4.33
All graded picks	347	46%	19%	4.49
Q2 read — against the 46% all-picks baseline, PL's top tiers clear it (62% · 57%) and BP's top tiers are too thin to call (57% · 46% on n=7 · n=28).

Rows are overlapping lenses on the same picks, not a partition — one start can be a PL Auto Start and a Verdict SIT at once, so they never sum to the headline; each group is read against its own baseline row.

⚠ Dissent check — the override is ahead so far — 67% GOOD+ on n=6. Splits are picks the board started over our MIZ sit-call (vs 46% for all live picks).

Calibration — do our numbers mean anything? · full season, 2026-06-29→2026-09-09 · 1008 graded picks · MIZ on 466, BP on 230, Verdict on 489

The ladder above asks whether the tiers sort. This asks the harder question: is the number a probability — when the board says 7, do 70% of those starts come back GOOD+? Bins are equal-count and merge until every one clears n=15; the walk-forward rows are scored against a model that only ever saw earlier days.

Score bin	n	mean	GOOD+	95% CI
MIZ score → P(GOOD+) · our matchup score, 0–10 · live rows only · n=466
MIZ 0.5–3.3	102	2.7	40%	31%–50%
MIZ 3.4–4.0	91	3.7	43%	33%–53%
MIZ 4.1–4.8	95	4.4	49%	40%–59%
MIZ 4.9–5.6	92	5.2	50%	40%–60%
MIZ 5.7–8.9	86	6.4	60%	50%–70%
All MIZ-scored picks	466	—	48%	—
BP score → P(GOOD+) · RelieverRecon's published rating · includes git-backfilled rows · n=230
BP 4.6–6.6	48	6.1	35%	23%–50%
BP 6.7–7.3	44	7.0	52%	38%–66%
BP 7.4–7.7	47	7.5	45%	31%–59%
BP 7.8–8.4	47	8.1	47%	33%–61%
BP 8.5–10.0	44	9.1	43%	30%–58%
All BP-scored picks	230	—	44%	—
Verdict tier → P(GOOD+) · the consensus call itself · live rows only
AUTO START	33	—	67%	50%–80%
START	64	—	58%	46%–69%
DART	130	—	45%	37%–54%
SIT	262	—	45%	39%–51%

Out-of-sample	n	value	vs
Walk-forward probability · logistic on MIZ, refit daily on earlier days only · from 2026-08-05 · 35 days
Brier — our probability	402	0.248	lower is better
Brier — flat base rate to date	402	0.254	we win by 0.006
Brier — verdict-tier history	402	0.254	we win by 0.006
Log loss — our probability	402	0.689	lower is better
ECE — our probability	402	0.071	5 equal-count bins
ECE bins · predicted p vs what actually happened
said 32%–46%	80	39%	off by 4%
said 47%–51%	81	40%	off by 9%
said 51%–55%	80	41%	off by 12%
said 56%–60%	81	54%	off by 3%
said 60%–74%	80	56%	off by 8%
Verdict — poor: ECE 0.071 over n=402 out-of-sample picks (≤0.03 well calibrated · ≤0.07 usable with caveats); edges the flat base rate on Brier (0.248 vs 0.254, a thin margin; log-loss ~coin-flip).

🔥 Today's Hitter Streamers

Top 10 FA bats for today's slate · score = split vs SP hand (35%) + SP softness (35%) + bat quality (15%) + trailing 15 days (10%) + park (5%) · facing an elite arm fades the score hard (feast on weak pitchers).

#	Hitter	Matchup	Why	Legs	Score
1	STARTRyan ViladeRF · 0% own	@ ATL · Pérez LHP	szn .335 xwOBAusually bats 4th (×1.05)fills OF needbeats 2 of 4 eligible startersPérez .334 allowed · soft SP0.838 OPS vs LHP (134 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	67
2	DEPTHJoc PedersonDH · 2% own	@ SEA · Gilbert RHP	szn .342 xwOBAL15: 0.846 OPS (28 PA)L14 contact -1.0 (.348 xwOBAcon, 13 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)beats 0 of 1 eligible startersGilbert .299 allowed · avg SP0.827 OPS vs RHP (333 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	54
3	AUTO STARTVictor Mesa Jr.LF · 1% own	@ ATL · Pérez LHP	szn .311 xwOBAL15: 0.887 OPS (31 PA)L14 contact -3.6 (.289 xwOBAcon, 25 BBE)usually bats 5thfills OF needbeats 2 of 3 eligible startersPérez .334 allowed · soft SP0.752 OPS vs LHP (43 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	51
4	STARTMax Schuemann2B · 0% own	vs COL · Feltner RHP	szn .312 xwOBAfills OF needbeats 2 of 4 eligible startersshort side vs RHP — 47% of ABFeltner .348 allowed · soft SP0.657 OPS vs RHP (34 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	48
5	STARTEdmundo Sosa2B · 1% own	vs HOU · Javier RHP	szn .333 xwOBAL14 contact +5.6 (.495 xwOBAcon, 12 BBE)usually bats 6th (×0.98)fills OF needbeats 2 of 4 eligible startersshort side vs RHP — 46% of ABJavier .340 allowed · soft SP0.535 OPS vs RHP (98 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	47
6	CONSIDERRyan McMahon3B · 1% own	vs COL · Feltner RHP	szn .304 xwOBAusually bats 8th (×0.93)beats 0 of 2 eligible startersFeltner .348 allowed · soft SP0.664 OPS vs RHP (241 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	44
7	DEPTHAnthony VolpeSS · 2% own	vs COL · Feltner RHP	szn .290 xwOBAbeats 0 of 1 eligible startersFeltner .348 allowed · soft SP0.626 OPS vs RHP (93 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	42
8	DEPTHDominic Smith1B · 2% own	vs TB · Martinez RHP	szn .299 xwOBAusually bats 7th (×0.95)beats 0 of 2 eligible startersMartinez .316 allowed · avg SP0.729 OPS vs RHP (229 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	40
9	STARTJasson DominguezLF · 2% own	vs COL · Feltner RHP	szn .291 xwOBAusually bats 6th (×0.98)fills OF needbeats 1 of 3 eligible startersFeltner .348 allowed · soft SP0.586 OPS vs RHP (125 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	39
10	STARTDerek HillCF · 0% own	vs HOU · Javier RHP	szn .287 xwOBAL14 contact -0.5 (.358 xwOBAcon, 15 BBE)usually bats 9th (×0.90)fills OF needbeats 1 of 3 eligible startersshort side vs RHP — 37% of ABJavier .340 allowed · soft SP0.665 OPS vs RHP (69 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	38

Tiers vs YOUR lineup tonight — median starter 49, worst Cole Carrigg (13). AUTO START = beats the median eligible starter.

TBD starter = neutral SP + split legs until the probable posts (refresh upgrades it). Splits need 30+ AB vs that hand. IL bats are excluded; bats who rarely start against tonight's hand are dropped. Doubleheaders: legs average the ends he plays, and everyday bats get up to a ×1.50 volume boost. Lineup slot scales the score by expected PAs from the bat's usual spot (leadoff ×1.12 … 9-hole ×0.90, modal over the last ~10 played days) — his typical order, not today's card, since that posts after waivers run.

🎯 FA Hitters — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Kyle Schwarber

1Lars NootbaarLF · Ari · 2.5%HEATER

88/99 heat on 22 BBE (trusted), .485 xwOBAcon, 96.4 EV; best contact-quality signal in pool

Heat 88 · 22 BBE · ATC 53 PA · 2 HR · 1 SB · 0.248 · L7 0.333 · 0 HR · sim +0.1 pts

2Francisco Alvarez

C · NYM · 8.9% · BEST VALUE

81/99 heat on 17 BBE, 2 HR and 3 RBI last 7 days; best recent production-plus-heat combo

Heat 81 · 17 BBE · ATC 49 PA · 2 HR · 0 SB · 0.228 · L7 0.25 · 2 HR · sim +0.1 pts

3Ty France

1B · SD · 14.8% · FLOOR

72 PA projection leads pool; wRC+ 109, .259 ATC; volume and quality beat thin options

L7 flare 78 · ATC 72 PA · 2 HR · 0 SB · 0.259 · L7 0.333 · 0 HR · sim -0.1 pts

4Justin Foscue

2B · Tex · 0.8% · UPSIDE

.393 BA / 8 RBI L14, 79/99 heat; hot bat with real RBI production backs the flare

Heat 79 · 19 BBE · ATC 23 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.223 · L7 0.438 · 0 HR · sim +0.1 pts

5Luis Campusano

C · SD · 0.7% · CATEGORY FIT

.593 xwOBAcon flare leads pool; 2 HR / 4 RBI last 7 supports the extreme contact quality

L7 flare 67 · ATC 44 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.240 · L7 0.333 · 2 HR · sim +0.1 pts

Passed on: Richie Palacios posted 3 HR, 2 SB, and 4 RBI last 7 days — SB is live for MIZ — but wRC+ 82 projection and no heat-board signal make the spike too noise-heavy to trust over proven contact-quality names.

💪 Hitter List Rankings

PL Top 150 hitters · your bats + top FAs.

On Hitter List · 16 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Hitter	MLB	Pos	Chg	AVG	xwOBA	HR	SB	RoS	Chu’s Take
16	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	DH	+3	.242	.369	44	3	124
18	Randy Arozarena	SEA	OF	-	.273	.348	22	21	127
21	Miguel Vargas	CHW	1B/3B	+19	.249	.383	30	16	115	Miguel Vargas has returned to the levels we saw early this summer and that really revs my engine. He’s one of those players who has shown…
36	Yandy Díaz	TB	1B	+3	.305	.356	22	3	122
46	Zach Neto	LAA	SS	+11	.244	.307	25	19	111	Zach Neto has been a monster over the last nine games, with 17 hits, 18 combined runs and RBI (a seven RBI night helps), and seven extra-…
59	Jac Caglianone	KC	1B/OF	+13	.283	.357	23	6	108	Jac Caglianone still hits a lot of grounders, but not quite as many as before (the rolling 15-game rate is a hair below 50%) and the stri…
72	Ty France	SD	1B	+12	.294	.334	20	1	109
77	Royce Lewis	MIN	1B/2B/3B	-15	.230	.313	14	14	96	Royce Lewis is streaky. We just gotta deal with that.
85	Cole Carrigg	COL	SS/OF	-22	.261	.317	7	9	67	The strikeouts have creeped up on Cole Carrigg , up to 32% over his last 11 games (which is, conveniently, exactly 50 plate appearances).…
106	Luis Robert Jr.	NYM	OF	+UR	.221	.321	11	2	100
109	Mickey Gasper	BOS	C/1B	+UR	.264	.374	8	0	104	Mickey Gasper — Fantastic mustache, first of all. Second of all, the batted ball data suggests what’s happening of late is very real, tho…
115	Kaelen Culpepper	MIN	SS	+UR	.284	.309	3	1	90	Kaelen Culpepper — Culpepper puts a lot of balls in play and it’s working out so far. The BABIP Gods can be cruel, though. The 55 point g…
119	Rafael Flores Jr.	PIT	C/1B	+UR	.243	.350	8	0	83
133	Connor Norby	COL	1B/2B/3B	+UR	.227	.298	7	8	91	Connor Norby still has huge contact issues but the guy can hit the ball hard in the air and plays for Colorado so stream away.
135	Henry Bolte	ATH	OF	+UR	.277	.315	10	19	93	Henry Bolte is leading off again and should get some games in Sacramento soon, if you need a streamer.
137	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	BAL	1B/3B	+UR	.255	.349	8	1	92
143	Alejandro Kirk	TOR	C	+UR	.276	.302	9	1	114
145	Tyler Stephenson	CIN	C	-33	.249	.333	15	0	94
146	Ryan Jeffers	MIN	C	-29	.270	.363	14	1	117
148	Andruw Monasterio	BOS	2B/SS	-26	.241	.294	6	4	89
149	Dylan Crews	WSH	OF	-35	.224	.312	11	9	83
TS	Bryce Eldridge	SF	1B	—	.268	.358	16	1	100	Bryce Eldridge (1B, SFG) — Power prospects can often take a while to really shine.
TS	Walker Jenkins	Min	OF	—	.118	.273	1	1	102	Walker Jenkins (OF, MIN) — Jenkins will get the call today after a white-hot month in the triple-A. He’s worth a scoop in most leagues, E…
UR	James Wood	Wsh	OF	—	.266	.416	30	18	126	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Michael Arroyo	Sea	2B	—	.000	.005	0	0	89	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Ralphy Velazquez	Cle	1B	—	—	—	—	—	83	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.

🔥 Heat Board

Hottest ACTIVE free-agent bats by contact quality, 8/27–9/9 · Heat = percentile vs all MLB bats over the same window (xwOBAcon 30 · EV 20 · Brl 20 · HH 15 · K 10 · BB 5) · min 15 BBE to qualify (smaller samples live in the HM rail) · IL excluded.

Lars Nootbaar

LF · Ari · 2.5% own · xwOBAcon .485 · EV 96.4 · Brl 13.6% · 22 BBE

▲ .131 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.236	6	29	29	2
L14	.367	2	8	3	0

Sean Murphy

C · Atl · 1.0% own · xwOBAcon .494 · EV 95.7 · Brl 13.3% · 15 BBE

▲ .028 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.203	3	8	8	0
L14	.231	2	6	5	0

Francisco Alvarez

C · NYM · 8.9% own · xwOBAcon .511 · EV 93.7 · Brl 17.6% · 17 BBE

▼ .032 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.232	15	37	32	0
L14	.200	2	6	3	0

Justin Foscue

2B · Tex · 0.8% own · xwOBAcon .491 · EV 91.3 · Brl 15.8% · 19 BBE

▲ .121 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.272	11	33	22	0
L14	.393	2	8	2	0

Rafael Flores Jr.

1B · Pit · 2.2% own · xwOBAcon .479 · EV 92.8 · Brl 9.1% · 22 BBE

▼ .008 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.243	8	19	13	0
L14	.235	2	5	3	0

Andrew Benintendi

LF · ChW · 3.4% own · xwOBAcon .400 · EV 91.6 · Brl 14.3% · 28 BBE

▲ .006 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.244	14	70	55	1
L14	.250	1	5	7	0

Amed Rosario

3B · NYY · 0.6% own · xwOBAcon .405 · EV 93.7 · Brl 9.5% · 21 BBE

▲ .095 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.238	10	32	26	2
L14	.333	0	4	3	1

Michael Massey

2B · KC · 0.9% own · xwOBAcon .420 · EV 94.2 · Brl 4.8% · 21 BBE

▲ .018 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.278	11	45	46	3
L14	.296	0	1	0	1

Elias Diaz

C · Tex · 0.2% own · xwOBAcon .424 · EV 90.4 · Brl 25.0% · 16 BBE

▲ .039 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.230	7	30	18	0
L14	.269	1	8	2	0

Mickey Gasper

C · Bos · 13.0% own · xwOBAcon .446 · EV 89.8 · Brl 13.6% · 22 BBE

▼ .045 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.264	8	22	23	0
L14	.219	3	3	6	0

Honorable mention · hottest L7 (9/3–9/9), not yet on the board · tiny samples — peek, don't trust

Ty France

1B · SD

.477 xwOBAcon

12 BBE · .333 L7

Michael Conforto

LF · ChC

.492 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .385 L7

Yainer Diaz

C · Hou

.370 xwOBAcon

15 BBE · .429 L7

Andrew Vaughn

1B · Mil

.385 xwOBAcon

10 BBE · .235 L7

Grant McCray

RF · SF

.501 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .231 L7

Luis Campusano

C · SD

.593 xwOBAcon

14 BBE · .333 L7

🎯 FA Pitchers — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Andres Munoz

1Merrill KellySP · Ari · 21.1%HEATER

92nd-pctile suppression on 36 BBE trusted sample; best contact-quality suppressor available, protects ERA/WHIP, GS cap has room

Supp 92 · 36 BBE · ATC 19.0 IP · 1 W · 16 K · 4.60 · 1.36 · sim -0.2 pts

2Steven Cruz

RP · KC · 1.3% · CATEGORY FIT

Closer role confirmed, 91st-pctile suppression but only 12 BBE — saves upside with elite contact suppression corroborating the signal

Supp 91 · 12 BBE · ATC 7.0 IP · 0 W · 6 K · 4.24 · 1.31 · 2 SV · Closer · sim -0.2 pts

3Jared Jones

SP · Pit · 21.7% · UPSIDE

18 K in 17 IP leads field in strikeout upside; Pitcher List #5, ratios safe enough given ERA/WHIP cushion, GS cap open

Supp 33 · 27 BBE · ATC 17.0 IP · 1 W · 18 K · 3.97 · 1.25 · PL #5 · sim -0.2 pts

4Juan Morillo

RP · Ari · 3.3% · CATEGORY FIT

Confirmed closer role, 16 BBE borderline but saves opportunity real; ATC ERA 3.83 won't bleed ratios

Supp 47 · 16 BBE · ATC 6.0 IP · 0 W · 6 K · 3.83 · 1.36 · 1 SV · Closer · sim -0.2 pts

5Keider Montero

SP · Det · 17.0% · FLOOR

1.31 WHIP best among SPs not named Kelly; 76th-pctile suppression on 33 BBE trusted, ratio-safe volume arm

Supp 76 · 33 BBE · ATC 18.0 IP · 1 W · 13 K · 4.53 · 1.31 · sim -0.2 pts

Passed on: Andrew Kittredge has a closer role and decent ERA/WHIP but 26th-pctile suppression on 18 BBE signals regression risk that could bleed MIZ's top-ranked ratios.

⚾ Pitcher List Rankings

PL Top 100 SP · your arms + top FAs.

On Pitcher List · 6 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Pitcher	MLB	Chg	ERA	xERA	K/9	RoS	Pollack’s Take
1	Jacob Misiorowski	MIL	-	1.95	2.09	13.2	3.40	Like a base set Charizard, Misiorowski’s not gonna stop being dope.
9	Blake Snell	LAD	+7	1.97	2.11	12.1	3.31	#HotSnellSummer is in full swing.
10	Dylan Cease	TOR	-1	2.40	2.76	12.7	3.45	Like a perfect burger without the condiments to hit all your macros, Cease gives you everything except for a stable WHIP due to his infla…
20	Kyle Harrison	MIL	+8	3.66	3.73	10.9	4.19	With a dominant outing, he muted our concerns, but Harrison’s still displaying decreased velocity and not commanding as well as he did in…
22	Eury Pérez	MIA	-4	3.94	4.09	9.7	3.91	Pérez has the stuff to be an ace, but there’s polishing to do in the command and game plan departments to unlock his full potential.
29	Sean Burke	CHW	-4	3.58	3.81	9.8	4.43	Burke’s hot streak has come to a brief pause, but he’s still doing everything he’s supposed to with elite four-seamers upstairs and suppo…
30	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	-4	3.78	3.89	6.4	4.17	Baseball’s premier innings eater hasn’t ruined his appetite.
38	Jacob Lopez	ATH	+6	4.78	3.49	8.4	4.55	It’s the 2025 hot streak all over again. Enjoy the ride, ya’ll!
39	Dustin May	MIL	-	4.69	4.29	8.6	4.18	May got Singled Out in a disastrous performance, but his stuff is still dope, and his new situation is ideal. Higher win chance, great de…
40	Walbert Ureña	LAA	-	2.74	3.39	8.5	4.49	Armed with upper-90s heaters and one of the best changeups in baseball, Ureña has hit few speed bumps. If that developing sweeper becomes…
43	Andrew Painter	PHI	+UR	5.71	4.53	7.9	4.71	From off The List to inside the Top 50, Painter has stolen our hearts with an improved heater (97+ mph with 17-18″ iVB) and emphasis on r…
45	Peter Lambert	HOU	-4	3.67	3.65	8.8	4.61	Lambert’s stumble last time was a product of being Singled Out . He’s been reliable all year, but we should be recognizing that Holly is …
46	Jared Jones	PIT	-8	4.46	3.62	10.5	3.97	The stuff is top-tier, but he’s still shaking off the Tommy John surgery rust with his command and the tight leash the Pirates have on hi…
54	Joey Cantillo	CLE	-8	4.00	4.20	9.6	4.05	Efficiency is a problem, but Cantillo is doing everything we want. More curveballs, faster fastballs, and supportive cutters. Throw more …
56	Shane Bieber	TOR	+14	4.37	5.95	7.1	4.05	Bieber is back in business. His heater looked awesome in The Trop, and his offspeed pitches are being the CSW monsters they need to be to…
58	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	-	3.53	3.75	5.9	4.67	Despite what the line suggests, Pfaadt’s last start wasn’t an end to his Vargas Rule . It was a textbook Careful, Icarus with a three-run…

🔒 Closer Chart

Save targets · roles + regression flags.

🚨 Closer Tier Changes (vs. yesterday)

COLOR SHIFT Milwaukee Brewers: Trevor Megill → Trevor Megill (magenta → ) rostered

BLUEEntrenched closer (highest leverage)GREENNext man up / committee pieceYELLOWSetup, 8th-inning leverageORANGESpeculative / lower priorityMAGENTAHigh-upside future / multi-inning

	Pitcher	Tm	Role	SV	SVHD	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K/9	Rtg / Own
Yours on the chart
—	Andrés Muñoz	Seattle Mariners	CL	26	26	53.3	4.05	1.14	3.17	14.3	5.0 · —
—	Louis Varland	Toronto Blue Jays	CL	33	38	72.3	1.24	1.01	2.28 ↑	11.1	5.0 · —
Top 5 FA closers (by team rating)
—	Andrew Kittredge	Baltimore Orioles	CL	9	18	44.7	3.83	1.43	4.06	7.5	4.0 · 3%
—	Dylan Smith	San Francisco Giants	CL	4	11	33.3	3.24	1.41	3.92	11.1	4.0 · 0%
	Steven Cruz (HLR) b2b	Kansas City Royals	CL	6	11	54.7	4.12	1.26	4.09	9.5	3.5 · 1%
	Jacob Webb	Chicago Cubs	CL	9	17	61.7	3.36	1.25	4.29	9.8	3.0 · 5%
	Juan Morillo	Arizona Diamondbacks	CL	3	21	58.0	2.33	1.07	2.47	10.4	1.0 · 3%

ERA cell: green <3.00 · red >4.50. xERA arrow: ↓ ERA likely to fall (buy) · ↑ ERA likely to rise (sell). Triggers when |xERA−ERA| ≥ 1.00.

✂️ Cut List

Drop priority · value, form, pedigree, role.

47	Royce Lewis 3B · Min low TV (17) sim cost ~0	TV 17 Rd 13
27	Kyle Harrison SP · Mil mid TV (43); cold last 7d; UFDA — easy to drop; BUT top-tier keeper sim cost ~0	TV 43 UFDA
15	Sandy Alcantara SP · Mia BUT solid keeper sim cost ~0	TV 71 Rd 14
15	Blake Snell SP · LAD BUT strong RoS (3.31 ERA) sim cost ~0	TV 80 Rd 8
14	Joe Ryan SP · Min BUT high-pedigree (Rd 5) sim cost ~0	TV 72 Rd 5

Higher score = drop sooner — top 5 by score, and only 8+ reaches the board, so the number has no ceiling and is only comparable within this list. The sim line is a roto-sim marginal (cut vs. keep on one shared set of draws), not a measured cost. Pedigree + named closers shielded.

🌱 Stash List

PL's top prospects · grab them cheap.

Hitters

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 24: Top 10 Hitting Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + PSS + PFV + age + 40-man + path.

20 available — 2 yours

M. Arroyo YOURS

SS · SEA · AAA · 21 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

18·17·.281

R. Velazquez YOURS

1B/C · CLE · AA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

29·2·.290

H. Mendez

OF · MIN · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

12·4·.284

S. Thompson

OF · COL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

13·20·.309

J. Tibbs III

OF · LAD · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

28·9·.292

C. Cannarella

OF · MIA · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

15·21·.336

C. Ingle

C · CLE · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

19·2·.290

M. Anderson

2B · DET · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

16·5·.303

B. Davidson

OF · SFG · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

September

Szn

28·19·.286

S. Walcott

3B/SS · TEX · AA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

10·10·.329

Z. Hope

OF · DET · AA · 21 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

28·25·.287

J. Melton

OF · TB · AAA · 25 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

8·28·.272

J. Made

SS · MIL · AA · 19 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

14·36·.270

S. King

SS/2B/3B · WSN · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

19·14·.306

R. Ward

LF · LAD · AAA · 28 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

20·8·.249

J. Long

1B · CHC · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

15·3·.274

K. Alderman

OF · MIA · AAA · 23 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

18·10·.255

R. Clifford

1B · NYM · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

17·8·.174

P. Harber

3B · SFG · AAA · 24 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

'27

Szn

17·4·.271

D. Crisantes

2B/3B · ARI · AAA · 21 · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

blocked

Szn

9·0·.287

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

Pitchers

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 24: Top 10 Pitching Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + L3 quality + FV + age + 40-man + path.

28 available

T. Johnson

SP · TBR · AAA · 24 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

87K·3.09

J. Tong

SP · NYM · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

140K·4.57

B. Mautz

SP · STL · AAA · 24 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

100K·4.28

L. Perales

SP · WSN · AAA · 23 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

106K·4.18

H. Smith

SP · CHW · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

August 1st

Szn

110K·3.51

M. Ullola

SP · HOU · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

100K·4.17

C. Seymour

SP · SFG · AAA · 27 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

88K·4.23

K. Curtis

SP · PIT · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

115K·4.53

R. Snelling

SP · MIA · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

46K·2.38

D. Sandlin

SP · CHW · AAA · 25 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

99K·3.35

O. Murphy

SP · ATL · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

127K·3.63

C. Dana

SP · LAA · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

83K·5.44

J. Ritchie

SP · ATL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

133K·3.82

J. Wenninger

SP · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

115K·4.24

M. Bratt

SP · ARI · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

82K·3.92

G. Wood

SP · PHI · AA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

'26

Szn

139K·4.36

M. Forret

SP · BAL · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

125K·3.89

T. Bremner

SP · LAA · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

100K·4.33

R. Sloan

SP · SEA · AA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

124K·3.70

B. Garrett

SP · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

June 1st

Szn

110K·3.94

T. McDougal

SP · CHW · AAA · 23 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

49K·4.43

D. Davalillo

SP · TEX · AAA · 24 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

100K·4.87

R. Ryan

SP · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

45K·4.23

A. Kelly

SP · PIT · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

76K·4.33

B. Hopkins

SP · TBR · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

122K·5.17

C. Crow

SP · MIL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

104K·4.01

T. Gibson

SP · BAL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

102K·4.99

L. Braun

SP · ATL · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

105K·4.02

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

🔭 14 not a 2026 factor — Anthony Eyanson · Bryce Mayer · Jackson Ferris · Liam Doyle · Tyson Hardin · Jackson Wolf · Jamie Arnold · Jurrangelo Cijntje · Daniel Eagen · Christian Zazueta · Joseph Dzierwa · Jonathan Santucci · Jaxon Wiggins · Karson Milbrandt

💼 Trades

Buy-low targets · league trade history.

Top Buy-Lows

Rebound candidates · suggested offers.

Hitters

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Juan Soto RF · NYM · GARR · jregarris +1.3σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.279 / xBA 0.296 · xwOBA 0.419	100%	159 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Kyle Schwarber DH · comparable value (TV 100 vs target 100)
📈 BUY-LOW	Heriberto Hernandez LF · Mia · FRAN · francisw789 +1.4σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.228 / xBA 0.248 · xwOBA 0.355	11%	100 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 35 vs target 33)
📈 BUY-LOW	JJ Bleday CF · Cin · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.3σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.215 / xBA 0.240 · xwOBA 0.343	22%	100 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Henry Bolte RF + Royce Lewis 3B · two-piece package (TV 22 vs target 26)
↑ mild buy	Taylor Ward LF · Sea · GoOs · My Best Guys +0.7σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.224 / xBA 0.241 · xwOBA 0.333	57%	120 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Zach Neto SS · comparable value (TV 60 vs target 60)
↑ mild buy	Kyle Stowers LF · Mia · KNIG · TKHOO +0.7σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.245 / xBA 0.232 · xwOBA 0.333	28%	111 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Henry Bolte RF + Royce Lewis 3B + +$3 FAAB · two-piece package (TV 22 vs target 28)
↑ mild buy	Dominic Canzone RF · Sea · GARR · jregarris +0.6σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.256 / xBA 0.268 · xwOBA 0.353	12%	114 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 35 vs target 34)
↑ mild buy	Ian Happ LF · ChC · FRAN · francisw789 +0.7σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.220 / xBA 0.206 · xwOBA 0.313	70%	109 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 35 vs target 41)
↑ mild buy	Jarren Duran LF · Bos · RAGE · glhoward40 +0.8σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.204 / xBA 0.236 · xwOBA 0.300	66%	100 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Eury Perez SP + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 50 vs target 57)
↑ mild buy	Ronald Acuna Jr. RF · Atl · GoOs · My Best Guys +0.8σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.253 / xBA 0.258 · xwOBA 0.364	98%	129 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Blake Snell SP + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 80 vs target 86)
↑ mild buy	Heliot Ramos LF · NYY · DORN · Lambertmt48 +0.7σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.243 / xBA 0.257 · xwOBA 0.329	10%	105 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Royce Lewis 3B · comparable value (TV 17 vs target 17)

Pitchers

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Kodai Senga SP · NYM · KRTZ · FratSkins +1.1σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 7.14 vs xERA 5.08	10%	3.88 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Royce Lewis 3B · comparable value (TV 17 vs target 14)
↑ mild buy	Nick Pivetta SP · SD · GARR · jregarris +0.7σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 3.43 vs xERA 2.41	57%	3.88 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Eury Perez SP · comparable value (TV 50 vs target 54)
↑ mild buy	Bryce Miller SP · Sea · BLOB · crenshawh19 +0.6σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.22 vs xERA 3.44	29%	4.15 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 35 vs target 37)
↑ mild buy	Kade Anderson SP · Sea · RAGE · glhoward40 +0.8σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 5.40 vs xERA 3.15	18%	4.59 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Henry Bolte RF + Royce Lewis 3B + +$4 FAAB · two-piece package (TV 22 vs target 29)
↑ mild buy	Freddy Peralta SP · TB · KNIG · TKHOO +0.6σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.82 vs xERA 3.92	75%	4.03 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Eury Perez SP + +$4 FAAB · comparable value (TV 50 vs target 58)

League History

Completed trades · frozen grade at the deal + live grade now.

Side	Sent	At deal	Now	Trend
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Andy Pages	A- +7	A+ +45	▲ up
Camp MVP	Pete Crow-Armstrong	C -7	F -45	▼ down
Team Knighton ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Team Knighton	Matthew Boyd	F -22	F -23
Camp MVP	Kenley Jansen	A+ +22	A+ +23
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Worst2First 2026-08-10
Miz-waukee’s Best	Charlie Condon, Payton Tolle	A+ +50	A+ +33	▼ down
Worst2First	Dylan Cease	F -50	F -33	▲ up
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Dorn and Associates LLC 2026-08-05
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Travis Bazzana, George Lombard Jr., Nolan McLean	A+ +144	A+ +105	▼ down
Dorn and Associates LLC	Jackson Chourio, Jhoan Duran, Brice Turang, David Bednar	F -144	F -105	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-07-31
Miz-waukee’s Best	Samuel Basallo, Kade Anderson	A- +8	A+ +20	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine	Blake Snell	C -8	F -20	▼ down
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Team Knighton 2026-07-23
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Jo Adell, Jacob deGrom	F -49	F -63	▼ down
Team Knighton	Trea Turner	A+ +49	A+ +63	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine ⇄ Miz-waukee’s Best 2026-07-19
Ramirez Against the Machine	Sandy Alcantara	F -42	F -67	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best	Josh Jung	A+ +42	A+ +67	▲ up
I need Buck Showalter ⇄ Hit the Damn Ball You Bums 2026-06-19
I need Buck Showalter	Nasim Nunez	A+ +28	A +11	▼ down
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Justin Wrobleski	F -28	D -11	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ The Boys of Summer 2026-06-12
Miz-waukee’s Best	Chandler Simpson	A +10	A- +7	▼ down
The Boys of Summer	$30 FAAB	D -10	C -7	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-05-01
Miz-waukee’s Best	Kenley Jansen	—	A- +7
Camp MVP	$30 FAAB	A- +3	C -7	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-04-22
Miz-waukee’s Best	Nathan Eovaldi, $70 FAAB	—	F -40
Ramirez Against the Machine	Jac Caglianone	A+ +60	A+ +40	▼ down

🔻 Sell-High — My Roster

Surface line outrunning the underlying skill — trade-value peaks. σ = his surface-stat z-score minus his Statcast-skill z-score, both against the league reference for his side — bigger σ = further ahead of the skill. Pair with Buy-Low Targets.

Verdict	Player	Own	Surface vs expected	Contact	2027 keeper
↓ SHOP	Henry Bolte RF · Oak 0.65σ sell-high · RF · BA 0.278 / xBA 0.247 · xwOBA 0.315 — test the market, don't force it	9%	BA 0.278 / xBA 0.247 +.031 wOBA 0.339 / xwOBA 0.315 +.024	HH 48.0% · Brl/PA 4.5%	25th · +2 rds vs mkt
↓ SHOP	Yandy Diaz 1B · TB 0.64σ sell-high · 1B · BA 0.306 / xBA 0.289 · xwOBA 0.356 — test the market, don't force it	93%	BA 0.306 / xBA 0.289 +.017 wOBA 0.367 / xwOBA 0.356 +.011	HH 48.7% · Brl/PA 5.6%	7th · +1 rd vs mkt
HOLD — KEEPER PRICE	Louis Varland RP · Tor 0.42σ sell-high · RP · ERA 1.26 vs xERA 2.28 — only move for keeper-grade return	87%	ERA 1.26 / xERA 2.28 -1.02	Brl 4.0% allowed	22nd · +16 rds vs mkt

👥 Your Roster

Your roster · news + buy/sell signals.

News (last 24h)

Player news · last 24h.

Kyle Schwarber Schwarber hits grand slam for 44th homer in Phillies' 11-7 win over Astros
Thu 09-10 01:49 AM
— Kyle Schwarber hit a grand slam for his majors-leading 44th home run, Trea Turner also homered and the Philadelphia Phillies overcame two deficits to beat the Houston Astros 11-7 on Wednesday night.
Zach Neto Neto hits 3-run HR over Green Monster as Angels beat Red Sox 6-4 to take series
Thu 09-10 01:34 AM
— Zach Neto hit a three-run homer over the Green Monster, Ryan Johnson gave up three runs over six innings and the Los Angeles Angels beat the Boston Red Sox 6-4 on Wednesday night to take the series.
Kyle Schwarber Clubs grand slam in win
Thu 09-10 12:00 AM
Schwarber went 1-for-5 with a grand slam in Wednesday's 11-8 win over the Astros.
Henry Bolte Henry Bolte's homer in the 4th inning helps Athletics beat Blue Jays 2-0
Wed 09-09 10:40 PM
— Henry Bolte hit a solo home run in the third inning and Tommy White scored on a wild pitch as the Athletics beat the Toronto Blue Jays 2-0 on Wednesday.
Bryce Eldridge Giants score 6 in the 8th to stun Cardinals and sweep
Wed 09-09 10:32 PM
Giants score 6 in the 8th to stun Cardinals and sweep

Leverage Buys/Sells

Buy/sell windows · surface vs. underlying.

Hitters

Player	Pos	MLB	BA	xBA	wOBA	xwOBA	Brl%	Own%	Signal
James Wood	LF	Wsh	0.266	0.276	0.392	0.416	100.0	99.1	📈 BUY-LOW
Kyle Schwarber	DH	Phi	0.242	0.243	0.377	0.369	98.0	99.6	📈 BUY-LOW
Miguel Vargas	3B	ChW	0.249	0.267	0.365	0.383	90.0	95.1	📈 BUY-LOW
Bryce Eldridge	1B	SF	0.268	0.258	0.358	0.358	76.0	11.3	↑ mild buy
Zach Neto	SS	LAA	0.244	0.213	0.332	0.307	73.0	60.2	fair
Randy Arozarena	LF	Sea	0.273	0.259	0.368	0.348	52.0	93.8	fair
Cole Carrigg	CF	Col	0.261	0.252	0.340	0.317	—	12.6	fair
Walker Jenkins	CF	Min	0.118	0.174	0.255	0.273	—	5.2	fair
Ryan Jeffers	C	Min	0.270	0.258	0.377	0.363	74.0	42.0	fair
Henry Bolte	RF	Oak	0.277	0.247	0.339	0.315	48.0	9.2	↓ mild fade
Kaelen Culpepper	SS	Min	0.284	0.258	0.344	0.309	—	6.4	fair
Royce Lewis	3B	Min	0.230	0.241	0.304	0.313	73.0	13.9	↑ mild buy
Jac Caglianone DTD	RF	KC	0.283	0.281	0.356	0.357	91.0	50.1	fair
Yandy Diaz	1B	TB	0.305	0.289	0.367	0.356	50.0	92.7	↓ mild fade
Ralphy Velazquez	1B	Cle	—	—	—	—	—	0.7	—
Michael Arroyo	2B	Sea	0.000	0.005	0.000	0.005	0.0	0.5	—

Pitchers

Pitcher	Pos	MLB	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K-BB%	xwOBA-a	Brl%-a	Own%	Signal
Blake Snell	SP	LAD	32.0	1.97	1.09	2.11	22.0	0.226	1.4	90.4	↑ mild buy
Andres Munoz	RP	Sea	53.3	4.05	1.14	3.17	29.0	0.277	8.8	80.1	↑ mild buy
Joe Ryan	SP	Min	129.7	4.10	1.14	3.49	21.6	0.290	10.5	87.5	fair
Jacob Misiorowski	SP	Mil	161.3	1.95	0.80	2.09	31.7	0.225	3.9	99.4	fair
Sandy Alcantara	SP	Mia	200.0	3.78	1.22	3.89	10.6	0.305	5.6	85.5	fair
Dylan Cease	SP	Tor	161.3	2.40	1.04	2.76	24.8	0.259	5.2	99.3	fair
Kyle Harrison	SP	Mil	110.7	3.66	1.27	3.73	21.4	0.299	8.3	56.2	fair
Eury Perez	SP	Mia	139.3	3.94	1.24	4.09	15.1	0.312	10.2	69.7	fair
Louis Varland	RP	Tor	72.3	1.24	1.01	2.28	23.9	0.235	4.0	86.6	↓ mild fade

📰 MLB News — Top Fantasy Stories

🔒 Keepers — 2027 Slate

Peter's model (additive): rounds-saved (cost arbitrage spine) + current skill + career-grade pedigree + sample stability + Statcast over/under-performance trend, with age-decline (33+), closer/RP, and top-30 talent adjustments. Heavy on bargain-hunting.
Claude's model (multiplicative dynasty index): EFV(2027) = (3 + skill + upside) × age_mult × pos_mult; score = EFV − cost_replacement − mookie-lock. Compounds age curve and position scarcity.
Sorted by consensus rank (average of both models). MLB-inactive players surfaced in 🚑 Return Watch below.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict	Notes
1.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	21st	#1 (+24.4)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51	UFDA-G FV 55
2.5	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	25th	#2 (+22.6)	#3 (+18.5)	S · $18	UFDA
2.5	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	22nd	#3 (+21.4)	#2 (+27.1)	S · $27
4.0	Bryce Eldridge	1B · 20yo	25th	#4 (+16.2)	#4 (+14.4)	A · $14	UFDA FV 55
5.0	Henry Bolte	RF · 21yo	25th	#5 (+14.9)	#5 (+13.8)	A · $14	UFDA FV 40
6.0	Zach Neto	SS · 25yo	10th	#6 (+11.7)	#6 (+10.3)	A · $10
8.0	Dylan Cease	SP · 30yo	4th	#7 (+11.0)	— (+5.8)	B · $6
8.0	Jac Caglianone	RF · 22yo	21st	#8 (+10.1)	#8 (+6.8)	B · $7	UFDA-G FV 55
8.0	Eury Perez	SP · 23yo	20th	— (+9.0)	#7 (+7.3)	B · $7	UFDA-G

NEW UFDA cap: Peter 3/3 · Claude 3/3 · BOTH = top 8 in both models. Peter only = his model values cost surplus more; Claude only = mine values projection / position scarcity more.

🚑 Return watch — would be keeper-eligible if they get MLB action this year. Rank shown is hypothetical (where they'd slot if eligible).

Player	Pos · Age	Cost	Peter (if elig.)	Claude (if elig.)
Ralphy Velazquez	1B · 19yo	25th	#16 (-2.0)	#12 (+1.4)
Michael Arroyo	2B · 20yo	25th	#18 (-10.1)	#19 (-2.4)

Updated Thu Sep 10 · 4:21 AM ET

🌍 League-Wide Top Keepers

Top 10 keepers · all 12 teams · both models. Yours in green.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	Team	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict
1.5	Jesus Luzardo	SP · 28yo	KNIG	21st	#1 (+28.9)	#2 (+42.1)	S · $42
3.0	Andy Pages	CF · 25yo	BLOB	20th	#3 (+25.1)	#3 (+41.5)	S · $41
3.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	MIZ	21st	#5 (+24.4)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51
4.5	Jordan Walker	RF · 24yo	GARR	25th	#2 (+25.2)	#7 (+29.9)	S · $30
4.5	Bryan Baker	RP · 31yo	DORN	25th	#4 (+24.8)	#5 (+38.7)	S · $39
7.5	Ben Rice	1B · 27yo	DORN	20th	#6 (+23.3)	#9 (+24.0)	S · $24
7.5	Cam Schlittler	SP · 24yo	KRTZ	19th	— (+19.6)	#4 (+40.8)	S · $41
8.5	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	MIZ	22nd	#9 (+21.4)	#8 (+27.1)	S · $27
8.5	Riley O'Brien	RP · 31yo	THAR	17th	— (+13.7)	#6 (+30.6)	S · $31
9.0	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	MIZ	25th	#7 (+22.6)	— (+18.5)	S · $18
9.5	Payton Tolle	SP · 22yo	FRST	25th	#8 (+21.8)	— (+18.5)	S · $18
10.5	Logan Henderson	SP · 23yo	PEYT	25th	#10 (+19.6)	— (+15.8)	A · $16
10.5	Junior Caminero	3B · 22yo	RAGE	5th	— (+12.4)	#10 (+23.3)	S · $23

Updated Thu Sep 10 · 4:21 AM ET

🏚️ Keeper Cupboards

Every team's six best keepers · shade = dual-model consensus value. Cupboard score weights the top four heavily (the slots that get kept), keepers 5–8 taper. 100 = league's best cupboard.

Team	K1	K2	K3	K4	K5	K6	Cupboard
1MIZ	MisiorowskiR21	VargasR25	VarlandR22	EldridgeR25	BolteR25	NetoR10	100
2DORN	BakerR25	RiceR20	McLeanR20	BazzanaR25	LaraR25	AnthonyR18	81
3BLOB	PagesR20	SorianoR25	ScottR25	LopezR20	ClemensR25	LileR15	72
4KNIG	LuzardoR21	AbreuR15	deGromR13	JensenR20	MartinezR25	RodriguezR25	69
5KRTZ	SchlittlerR19	BengeR25	SanojaR25	McGonigleR17	StewartR10	ColeR11	64
6FRAN	LatzR25	CavalliR21	AntonacciR25	McCarthyR25	BurnsR5	BradishR21	61
7PEYT	HendersonR25	SanchezR9	WooR8	SaggeseR25	WetherholtR13	MayoR17	60
8GoOs	GriffinR25	GoodmanR21	BradleyR25	BurlesonR9	ReynoldsR10	GomezR25	58
9THAR	O'BrienR17	RasmussenR8	WilliamsR11	KeaschallR21	Jr.R16	MarshR25	51
10RAGE	EwingR25	CamineroR5	HerreraR20	BasalloR19	JonesR25	ImanagaR9	49
11GARR ▼ thin	WalkerR25	MessickR18	CanzoneR25	GrayR7	MerrillR1	SimpsonR9	45
12FRST ▼ thin	TolleR25	WheelerR8	RouppR25	MuncyR18	SkubalR1	RumfieldR25	45

The bottom two rows are your trade marks — thin cupboards pay up for keepable pieces.

data: snap 0h · BP 16d · PL 16d · HL 13d · PSS 0h · BR 0h · FG 17h · proj 17h · closer 0h · oyster 18h · AAA-sc 5h · cookie ok