Miz-waukee’s Best — The Brandon League

Last updated Sunday, September 13 · 04:21 AM ET

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☕ Morning Briefing

🏆 MIZ sits atop the 12-team standings at 105.0 roto points, a 16-point cushion over Phil Swift's Flex Seal — but AVG is razor-thin (THAR is 0.000 behind you), and a single SB separates you from PEYT in that category, so every counting-stat at-bat tonight matters.

💥 Your bats delivered yesterday: Randy Arozarena went 2-for-5 with a HR and 4 RBI vs. the Athletics, while James Wood added 2 SB alongside a run and a walk vs. the Angels — exactly the kind of SB production you need to close that one-steal gap on PEYT. Make sure Eury Perez and Dylan Cease are active tonight.

⚠️ Closer alert: the Cubs have flipped the role from Jacob Webb to Ryan Zeferjahn, who is a free agent and the new save source in Chicago — worth a pickup if you need saves coverage. Separately, role-security signals shifted for Raisel Iglesias (Braves, owned by GoOs) and Ben Joyce (Angels, owned by KRTZ), though neither has changed hands.

🌱 The most compelling waiver item today is Michael Arroyo (MLB Pipeline #44, RI 90), who went 3-for-4 with a HR, 3 RBI, and a walk at the major-league level vs. the Athletics and is a free agent — a stash prospect already producing in the bigs. Also worth a look: Emmanuel Rodriguez (recalled by Minnesota) and Tyler Locklear (recalled by Arizona) are both available FAs with immediate roster spots. Early contact-heat signals on Victor Mesa Jr. (85/99, 16 BBE) and Jared Young (79/99, 16 BBE) are intriguing but small-sample; Mesa's profile hits your SB and AVG pressure points simultaneously if the sample grows.

📰 Around the league, Shea Langeliers is back off the IL for the Athletics — relevant to Peter as THAR owns him, potentially bolstering the team pressing hardest on AVG. On the injury front, Esmerlyn Valdez (hamstring strain, owned by PEYT) hitting the IL could soften PEYT's SB threat just as you're one steal back. Ryan Helsley began a rehab assignment with Norfolk, a signal the Cardinals closer may be approaching a return for GARR. Meanwhile Josh Jung and Nathan Eovaldi are both activated for Texas, benefiting RAGE's corner and rotation depth.

ELIGIBILITYK. Schwarber 1B 8/10

Your standing

1stof 12

105.0 roto pts +16.0 clear of 2nd

no change vs last update

Top Gaps

W (7.0) SB (8.0)

categories below mid-pack

🎯 Category Pressure

Category ranks vs. the league.

Rank →

Δ to #1

992

1069

🥇

290

313

🥇

RBI

933

968

🥇

147

152

153

207

+55

AVG

.255

.256

.261

+0.005

1249

1259

1413

+154

+15

ERA

3.50

3.43

🥇

WHIP

1.17

1.15

🥇

📅 Yesterday's MIZ Box Scores (2026-09-12)

Loading box scores…

🏥 IL Rehab Tracker

IL players · rehab game logs.

On the IL, no rehab games yet: Spencer Schwellenbach (IL60 · watch).

📊 League Activity (last 24h)

All adds, drops, and trades across the 12 teams.

Team	Move
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	+ Walbert Urena
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	+ Clay Holmes \| − Jeffrey Springs

🏆 League Standings

Current roto points · 10,000-sim projected finish. FAAB = acquisition budget remaining.

100.0% to win the league · proj finish 1.0 · 104.2 roto pts

#	Team	Pts	FAAB	Win%	Proj Pts	Range	Proj Rk
1	MIZ Miz-waukee’s Best	105.0	$0	100.0%	104.2	102–106	1.0
2	PEYT Phil Swift's Flex Seal	89.0	$25	0.0%	88.5	85–92	2.1
3	KRTZ Photogenic Nick Kurtz	84.0	$16	0.0%	85.1	82–88	2.9
4	FRAN Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	79.5	$35	0.0%	81.1	78–84	3.9
5	BLOB Camp MVP	69.0	$168	0.0%	68.8	66–71	5.0
6	GoOs I need Buck Showalter	63.5	$170	0.0%	64.0	61–67	6.1
7	THAR Phil Mickeltits	60.0	$176	0.0%	60.7	58–64	7.0
8	KNIG Team Knighton	57.5	$137	0.0%	58.1	55–61	7.7
9	GARR The Boys of Summer	46.0	$155	0.0%	46.9	45–49	9.2
10	FRST Worst2First	45.0	$154	0.0%	45.3	43–48	9.9
11	DORN Dorn and Associates LLC	44.5	$89	0.0%	44.1	42–47	10.5
12	RAGE Ramirez Against the Machine	37.0	$163	0.0%	33.2	31–35	12.0

10,000 sims · fixed seed · noise CV talent 0.12 / idio 0.06 / team-cat 0.08 · assumes ATC rest-of-season rates

Your categories · projected roto points

R 12.0HR 12.0RBI 12.0SB 8.1AVG 9.4W 6.9SV 9.0K 10.8ERA 12.0WHIP 11.9

Winnable — push here: SB, AVG, W, SV.

🚨 Today's Streaming Board

165 of 200 GS · should be 185 · 20 behindBehind pace — stream aggressively

035 left · ~17.5/wk to cap · proj 179200

⏳ BP's post is late — Verdict pill is running on our score + Pitcher List for now (BP joins the top-2 once it posts).

Your starters + top FA streamers

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Eury Perez	vs LAD	SIT	—	2.6	#21	Three straight rough outings; now faces Dodgers.
Dylan Cease	vs BAL	START	—	6.9	#8	Velo down two ticks; results declining with it.
Jacob Lopez	vs SEA	START	—	6.0	#10	Low-whiff concern but ER inflation was context-driven.
Emmet Sheehan	@ MIA	DART	—	5.2	—	tough MIA lineup, strong skills, friendly park
Robert Gasser	vs CIN	DART	—	5.2	—	tough CIN lineup, hot recent form
Andrew Painter	@ ATL	DART	—	4.2	#11	Velo down, but secondaries all clicking well.
Christian Scott	@ NYY	DART	—	5.6	#18	Judge back stiffens already tough lineup.
Sean Burke	@ STL	DART	—	—	#17	Secondary command still unresolved; uncertain streaming option.
Michael McGreevy	vs CWS	SIT	—	2.9	#13	Decent stream play against weak White Sox lineup.
Jackson Jobe	vs COL	SIT	—	2.7	#14	Secondary pitches underperforming so far this season.
Bubba Chandler	@ CHC	SIT	—	4.6	#25	Tougher Cubs lineup than prior White Sox exposure.
Gabriel Hughes	@ DET	SIT	—	5.3	#30	Not worth it despite one good Yankees outing.

Your staff: 3.43 ERA / 1.15 WHIP · GS 165/200 — Behind pace — stream aggressively. Verdict = the best 2 of BP · our score · Pitcher List, averaged (low outlier dropped); before BP posts it's our score + PL. ⚠ = our matchup score dissented — eyeball that one. Tap a MIZ score for the reasoning.

Tomorrow · top 2 FA · Mon 9/14 · BP not out yet, so pill = our score + Pitcher List

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Jonah Tong	vs BAL	DART⚠ opener	—	5.3	—	average BAL lineup
Nick Lodolo	vs LAD	SIT	—	1.4	—	tough LAD lineup, weak skills, shaky recent form

📼 Streamer Report Card

Does the Streaming Board actually work? Every pick it showed, frozen at pick time and graded off the real box score. Two scoreboards below: first our own calls — the Verdict ladder and MIZ (our matchup score, 0–10) — then the outside lists behind them, BP (RelieverRecon's daily BP Streamers post) and PL (Pitcher List's tier ranking). Grades are recomputed from raw lines on every build — the rubric can change, the history follows.

Last 30d · 340 starts graded over 29 days · GOOD+ 44% · BLOWUP 19% · agg ERA 4.61 · WHIP 1.37 · 4.4 K/start · 372 picks logged, 20 never started, 12 awaiting a box score — not graded

Grade mix · all 340 graded starts

GEM 53 GOOD 95 OK 126 BLOWUP 66

GEM6+ IP, ≤1 ER · or 6+ IP, 8+ K, ≤2 ERGOODquality start (6+ IP, ≤3 ER) · or 5+ IP, ≤2 EROKheld the line without earning GOODBLOWUP5+ ER · or under 4 IP with 4+ ERGOOD+ = GEM + GOOD. A pick whose starter never took the ball grades to nothing and leaves every rate below.

Cohort	n	GOOD+	BLOWUP	ERA
Q1 — Do our own calls work? · Verdict ladder + MIZ bands · live board rows only, nothing backfilled
Verdict · AUTO START	23	74%	17%	3.45
Verdict · START	49	53%	12%	4.39
Verdict · DART	90	37%	20%	5.14
Verdict · SIT	178	40%	21%	4.57
MIZ ≥ 5.0	107	55%	19%	4.30
MIZ 3.5–4.9	140	38%	22%	5.09
MIZ < 3.5	76	41%	16%	4.32
All live board picks	340	44%	19%	4.61
Q1 read — the ladder has not separated: GOOD+ runs 74% · 53% · 37% · 40% down the rungs, and MIZ does not sort either: 55% · 38% · 41% from the top band down.
Q2 — Which outside list earns the weight? · BP and PL graded on their own published lists · mostly rebuilt from git
PL · Auto Start	23	65%	22%	4.21
PL · Probably Start	50	56%	14%	4.03
PL · Questionable Start	96	47%	21%	4.60
PL · Do Not Start	141	38%	22%	4.88
BP · Auto	6	50%	0%	3.45
BP · Likely	25	40%	20%	4.77
All graded picks	340	44%	19%	4.61
Q2 read — against the 44% all-picks baseline, PL's top tiers clear it (65% · 56%) and BP's top tiers are too thin to call (50% · 40% on n=6 · n=25).

Rows are overlapping lenses on the same picks, not a partition — one start can be a PL Auto Start and a Verdict SIT at once, so they never sum to the headline; each group is read against its own baseline row.

⚠ Dissent check — the override is ahead so far — 67% GOOD+ on n=6. Splits are picks the board started over our MIZ sit-call (vs 44% for all live picks).

Calibration — do our numbers mean anything? · full season, 2026-06-29→2026-09-12 · 1034 graded picks · MIZ on 491, BP on 230, Verdict on 515

The ladder above asks whether the tiers sort. This asks the harder question: is the number a probability — when the board says 7, do 70% of those starts come back GOOD+? Bins are equal-count and merge until every one clears n=15; the walk-forward rows are scored against a model that only ever saw earlier days.

Score bin	n	mean	GOOD+	95% CI
MIZ score → P(GOOD+) · our matchup score, 0–10 · live rows only · n=491
MIZ 0.5–3.3	110	2.7	41%	32%–50%
MIZ 3.4–4.0	93	3.7	43%	33%–53%
MIZ 4.1–4.8	100	4.4	51%	41%–61%
MIZ 4.9–5.6	95	5.2	48%	39%–58%
MIZ 5.7–8.9	93	6.4	58%	48%–68%
All MIZ-scored picks	491	—	48%	—
BP score → P(GOOD+) · RelieverRecon's published rating · includes git-backfilled rows · n=230
BP 4.6–6.6	48	6.1	35%	23%–50%
BP 6.7–7.3	44	7.0	52%	38%–66%
BP 7.4–7.7	47	7.5	45%	31%–59%
BP 7.8–8.4	47	8.1	47%	33%–61%
BP 8.5–10.0	44	9.1	43%	30%–58%
All BP-scored picks	230	—	44%	—
Verdict tier → P(GOOD+) · the consensus call itself · live rows only
AUTO START	33	—	67%	50%–80%
START	69	—	57%	45%–68%
DART	139	—	45%	37%–54%
SIT	274	—	45%	39%–50%

Out-of-sample	n	value	vs
Walk-forward probability · logistic on MIZ, refit daily on earlier days only · from 2026-08-05 · 38 days
Brier — our probability	427	0.250	lower is better
Brier — flat base rate to date	427	0.254	we win by 0.004
Brier — verdict-tier history	427	0.254	we win by 0.004
Log loss — our probability	427	0.693	lower is better
ECE — our probability	427	0.072	5 equal-count bins
ECE bins · predicted p vs what actually happened
said 32%–46%	85	42%	off by 0%
said 46%–50%	86	38%	off by 10%
said 50%–55%	86	41%	off by 12%
said 55%–59%	85	54%	off by 3%
said 60%–74%	85	54%	off by 10%
Verdict — poor: ECE 0.072 over n=427 out-of-sample picks (≤0.03 well calibrated · ≤0.07 usable with caveats); edges the flat base rate on Brier (0.250 vs 0.254, a thin margin; log-loss ~coin-flip).

🔥 Today's Hitter Streamers

Top 10 FA bats for today's slate · score = split vs SP hand (35%) + SP softness (35%) + bat quality (15%) + trailing 15 days (10%) + park (5%) · facing an elite arm fades the score hard (feast on weak pitchers).

#	Hitter	Matchup	Why	Legs	Score
1	AUTO STARTJustin Foscue2B · 1% own	@ AZ · Rodriguez LHP	szn .334 xwOBAL15: 0.955 OPS (31 PA)L14 contact +5.5 (.492 xwOBAcon, 20 BBE)usually bats 3rd (×1.07)beats 5 of 5 eligible startersRodriguez .320 allowed · avg SP1.008 OPS vs LHP (127 AB)AZ plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	84
2	AUTO STARTWade MecklerCF · 1% own	@ WSH · Irvin RHP	szn .314 xwOBAL15: 0.845 OPS (45 PA)L14 contact -0.5 (.360 xwOBAcon, 32 BBE)usually bats 3rd (×1.07)fills OF needbeats 4 of 6 eligible startersIrvin .351 allowed · soft SP0.801 OPS vs RHP (214 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	69
3	AUTO STARTRandal GrichukRF · 0% own	@ STL · McGreevy RHP	szn .335 xwOBAL15: 1.079 OPS (30 PA)L14 contact +2.0 (.414 xwOBAcon, 18 BBE)usually bats 2nd (×1.10)fills OF needbeats 4 of 6 eligible startersshort side vs RHP — 36% of ABMcGreevy .352 allowed · soft SP0.692 OPS vs RHP (82 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	68
4	STARTRafael Flores Jr.1B · 2% own	@ CHC · Boyd LHP	szn .345 xwOBAL15: 0.779 OPS (41 PA)L14 contact +0.9 (.391 xwOBAcon, 28 BBE)usually bats 6th (×0.98)beats 2 of 4 eligible startersBoyd .331 allowed · soft SP0.83 OPS vs LHP (55 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	62
5	STARTKyle Karros3B · 2% own	@ DET · Jobe RHP	szn .338 xwOBAL14 contact +2.2 (.418 xwOBAcon, 13 BBE)usually bats 6th (×0.98)beats 1 of 3 eligible startersJobe .342 allowed · soft SP0.759 OPS vs RHP (233 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	59
6	DEPTHLuis CampusanoC · 1% own	@ SF · Webb RHP	szn .344 xwOBAL15: 0.769 OPS (47 PA)L14 contact +2.6 (.428 xwOBAcon, 30 BBE)usually bats 6th (×0.98)beats 0 of 2 eligible startersWebb .311 allowed · avg SP0.869 OPS vs RHP (144 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	58
7	DEPTHKyle TeelC · 4% own	@ STL · McGreevy RHP	szn .312 xwOBAL14 contact +5.2 (.485 xwOBAcon, 12 BBE)usually bats 9th (×0.90)beats 0 of 2 eligible startersMcGreevy .352 allowed · soft SP0.745 OPS vs RHP (62 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	57
8	AUTO STARTJahmai JonesRF · 0% own	vs KC · Cameron LHP	szn .343 xwOBAusually bats 2nd (×1.10)fills OF needbeats 4 of 6 eligible startersCameron .307 allowed · avg SP0.787 OPS vs LHP (111 AB)BOS plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	55
9	AUTO STARTLars NootbaarLF · 2% own	vs TEX · Quantrill RHP	szn .347 xwOBAL15: 0.938 OPS (33 PA)L14 contact -0.4 (.361 xwOBAcon, 18 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)fills OF needbeats 4 of 6 eligible startersQuantrill .305 allowed · avg SP0.76 OPS vs RHP (201 AB)AZ plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	55
10	AUTO STARTAndrew BenintendiLF · 3% own	@ STL · McGreevy RHP	szn .311 xwOBAL15: 0.628 OPS (40 PA)L14 contact -1.9 (.327 xwOBAcon, 26 BBE)usually bats 4th (×1.05)fills OF needbeats 4 of 6 eligible startersMcGreevy .352 allowed · soft SP0.748 OPS vs RHP (350 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	55

Tiers vs YOUR lineup tonight — median starter 53, worst Bryce Eldridge (19). AUTO START = beats the median eligible starter.

TBD starter = neutral SP + split legs until the probable posts (refresh upgrades it). Splits need 30+ AB vs that hand. IL bats are excluded; bats who rarely start against tonight's hand are dropped. Doubleheaders: legs average the ends he plays, and everyday bats get up to a ×1.50 volume boost. Lineup slot scales the score by expected PAs from the bat's usual spot (leadoff ×1.12 … 9-hole ×0.90, modal over the last ~10 played days) — his typical order, not today's card, since that posts after waivers run.

🎯 FA Hitters — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Kyle Schwarber

1Victor Mesa Jr.LF · TB · 5.1%HEATER

16-BBE trusted flare, .533 BA/3 HR/2 SB in 7 days hits MIZ's razor-thin SB and AVG needs simultaneously

L7 flare 85 · ATC 33 PA · 1 HR · 1 SB · 0.228 · L7 0.533 · 3 HR · sim +0.0 pts

2Leo Bernal

C · StL · 1.9% · BEST VALUE

37-BBE Heat Board leader, .325 BA/12 RBI in L14 with trusted sample; RBI volume real

Heat 80 · 37 BBE · ATC 32 PA · 1 HR · 1 SB · 0.239 · L7 0.3 · 1 HR · sim +0.0 pts

3Justin Foscue

2B · Tex · 0.5% · UPSIDE

79 heat score, .492 xwOBAcon on 20 BBE, .36 BA/8 RBI L14 — borderline trusted sample with strong production corroboration

Heat 79 · 20 BBE · ATC 19 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.223 · L7 0.364 · 0 HR · sim +0.0 pts

4Joc Pederson

DH · Tex · 2.3% · BEST VALUE

Highest ATC wRC+ 115 in pool, 19-BBE heat, .28 BA/3 HR L14 — best RoS projection quality despite modest volume

Heat 72 · 19 BBE · ATC 39 PA · 2 HR · 0 SB · 0.230 · L7 0.273 · 1 HR · sim +0.0 pts

5Francisco Alvarez

C · NYM · 8.8% · HEATER

83 heat score is pool's best; 15-BBE threshold barely met, .561 xwOBAcon/98 EV elite contact quality warrants the ride

Heat 83 · 15 BBE · ATC 41 PA · 2 HR · 0 SB · 0.228 · L7 0.182 · 0 HR · sim +0.0 pts

Passed on: Kyle Teel has elite .618 xwOBAcon but only 9 BBE — flare lacks corroboration and ATC projects him as a near-peer of Alvarez with far less contact-quality signal trust.

💪 Hitter List Rankings

PL Top 150 hitters · your bats + top FAs.

On Hitter List · 16 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Hitter	MLB	Pos	Chg	AVG	xwOBA	HR	SB	RoS	Chu’s Take
16	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	DH	+3	.236	.365	44	3	123
18	Randy Arozarena	SEA	OF	-	.273	.346	23	22	127
21	Miguel Vargas	CHW	1B/3B	+19	.247	.382	30	18	115	Miguel Vargas has returned to the levels we saw early this summer and that really revs my engine. He’s one of those players who has shown…
36	Yandy Díaz	TB	1B	+3	.301	.353	22	3	122
46	Zach Neto	LAA	SS	+11	.240	.310	25	19	111	Zach Neto has been a monster over the last nine games, with 17 hits, 18 combined runs and RBI (a seven RBI night helps), and seven extra-…
59	Jac Caglianone	KC	1B/OF	+13	.282	.357	23	6	107	Jac Caglianone still hits a lot of grounders, but not quite as many as before (the rolling 15-game rate is a hair below 50%) and the stri…
72	Ty France	SD	1B	+12	.294	.335	20	1	109
77	Royce Lewis	MIN	1B/2B/3B	-15	.231	.311	14	14	96	Royce Lewis is streaky. We just gotta deal with that.
85	Cole Carrigg	COL	SS/OF	-22	.262	.316	7	9	67	The strikeouts have creeped up on Cole Carrigg , up to 32% over his last 11 games (which is, conveniently, exactly 50 plate appearances).…
106	Luis Robert Jr.	BAL	OF	+UR	.221	.321	11	2	100
109	Mickey Gasper	BOS	C/1B	+UR	.265	.373	9	0	104	Mickey Gasper — Fantastic mustache, first of all. Second of all, the batted ball data suggests what’s happening of late is very real, tho…
115	Kaelen Culpepper	MIN	SS	+UR	.283	.303	3	1	90	Kaelen Culpepper — Culpepper puts a lot of balls in play and it’s working out so far. The BABIP Gods can be cruel, though. The 55 point g…
119	Rafael Flores Jr.	PIT	C/1B	+UR	.250	.345	8	0	83
133	Connor Norby	COL	1B/2B/3B	+UR	.231	.301	7	8	91	Connor Norby still has huge contact issues but the guy can hit the ball hard in the air and plays for Colorado so stream away.
135	Henry Bolte	ATH	OF	+UR	.277	.317	10	20	93	Henry Bolte is leading off again and should get some games in Sacramento soon, if you need a streamer.
137	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	BAL	1B/3B	+UR	.263	.347	8	1	92
143	Alejandro Kirk	TOR	C	+UR	.276	.304	10	1	113
145	Tyler Stephenson	CIN	C	-33	.248	.333	15	0	94
146	Ryan Jeffers	MIN	C	-29	.270	.361	14	1	116
148	Andruw Monasterio	BOS	2B/SS	-26	.241	.294	6	4	89
149	Dylan Crews	WSH	OF	-35	.222	.310	11	9	83
TS	Bryce Eldridge	SF	1B	—	.267	.357	16	1	99	Bryce Eldridge (1B, SFG) — Power prospects can often take a while to really shine.
TS	Cam Smith	Hou	OF	—	.217	.324	20	10	99	Cam Smith (OF, HOU) — The roller coaster continues.
TS	Walker Jenkins	Min	OF	—	.108	.259	1	1	102	Walker Jenkins (OF, MIN) — Jenkins will get the call today after a white-hot month in the triple-A. He’s worth a scoop in most leagues, E…
UR	James Wood	Wsh	OF	—	.266	.415	30	21	126	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Ralphy Velazquez	Cle	1B	—	—	—	—	—	83	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.

🔥 Heat Board

Hottest ACTIVE free-agent bats by contact quality, 8/30–9/12 · Heat = percentile vs all MLB bats over the same window (xwOBAcon 30 · EV 20 · Brl 20 · HH 15 · K 10 · BB 5) · min 15 BBE to qualify (smaller samples live in the HM rail) · IL excluded.

Francisco Alvarez

C · NYM · 8.8% own · xwOBAcon .561 · EV 98.0 · Brl 13.3% · 15 BBE

▼ .038 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.230	15	37	32	0
L14	.192	2	4	3	0

Leo Bernal

C · StL · 1.9% own · xwOBAcon .434 · EV 94.8 · Brl 8.1% · 37 BBE

▲ .014 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.311	3	13	8	0
L14	.325	2	12	7	0

Justin Foscue

2B · Tex · 0.5% own · xwOBAcon .492 · EV 91.2 · Brl 15.0% · 20 BBE

▲ .092 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.268	11	33	22	0
L14	.360	2	8	2	0

Jose Siri

CF · LAA · 0.1% own · xwOBAcon .435 · EV 93.6 · Brl 18.8% · 16 BBE

▼ .096 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.226	8	26	30	6
L14	.130	1	3	2	0

Sean Murphy

C · Atl · 0.9% own · xwOBAcon .441 · EV 90.0 · Brl 15.8% · 19 BBE

▼ .018 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.210	3	8	9	0
L14	.192	2	5	4	0

Elias Diaz

C · Tex · 0.1% own · xwOBAcon .382 · EV 92.4 · Brl 19.0% · 21 BBE

▲ .040 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.240	7	31	19	0
L14	.280	1	8	2	0

Joc Pederson

DH · Tex · 2.3% own · xwOBAcon .401 · EV 90.7 · Brl 15.8% · 19 BBE

▲ .045 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.235	26	53	56	2
L14	.280	3	5	4	0

Michael Massey

2B · KC · 0.9% own · xwOBAcon .468 · EV 91.2 · Brl 3.2% · 31 BBE

▲ .042 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.281	11	45	46	3
L14	.323	0	1	0	1

Mickey Gasper

C · Bos · 11.8% own · xwOBAcon .430 · EV 89.0 · Brl 17.2% · 29 BBE

▼ .053 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.265	9	23	25	0
L14	.212	4	4	7	0

Nathaniel Lowe

1B · Cle · 1.5% own · xwOBAcon .467 · EV 90.5 · Brl 15.4% · 26 BBE

▼ .069 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.251	17	58	38	0
L14	.182	3	9	5	0

Honorable mention · hottest L7 (9/6–9/12), not yet on the board · tiny samples — peek, don't trust

Victor Mesa Jr.

LF · TB

.523 xwOBAcon

16 BBE · .533 L7

Jared Young

1B · NYM

.397 xwOBAcon

16 BBE · .250 L7

Rafael Flores Jr.

1B · Pit

.438 xwOBAcon

15 BBE · .353 L7

Connor Norby

3B · Col

.590 xwOBAcon

10 BBE · .231 L7

Juan Brito

2B · Cin

.654 xwOBAcon

11 BBE · .375 L7

Kyle Teel

C · ChW

.618 xwOBAcon

9 BBE · .385 L7

🎯 FA Pitchers — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Andres Munoz

1Merrill KellySP · Ari · 21.5%HEATER

91st-pctl suppression on 33 BBE trusted sample; elite contact suppression protects ERA/WHIP #1 with 3 GS volume

Supp 91 · 33 BBE · ATC 16.0 IP · 1 W · 13 K · 4.60 · 1.36 · sim -0.2 pts

2Andrew Alvarez

SP · Wsh · 6.4% · HEATER

91st-pctl suppression on 40 BBE best-trusted sample; xwOBAcon .251 is elite, adds GS pace

Supp 91 · 40 BBE · ATC 12.0 IP · 0 W · 10 K · 4.07 · 1.38 · sim -0.2 pts

3Steven Cruz

RP · KC · 1.3% · CATEGORY FIT

Confirmed closer with 2 projected SV; SV rank 4 is 3pts from rank 3, pure saves grab

Supp 90 · 11 BBE · ATC 5.0 IP · 0 W · 5 K · 4.24 · 1.31 · 2 SV · Closer · sim -0.1 pts

4Juan Morillo

RP · Ari · 3.2% · CATEGORY FIT

Confirmed closer role, 1 SV projected; 3.83 ERA safe for ratios despite mediocre suppression

Supp 52 · 15 BBE · ATC 5.0 IP · 0 W · 5 K · 3.83 · 1.36 · 1 SV · Closer · sim -0.1 pts

5Andrew Sears

SP · Det · 0.5% · FLOOR

89th-pctl suppression on 31 BBE; .245 xwOBAcon best contact suppressor here, ratios-safe floor

Supp 89 · 31 BBE · ATC 5.0 IP · 0 W · 4 K · 4.36 · 1.36 · sim -0.1 pts

Passed on: Andrew Kittredge is a confirmed closer but 39th-pctl suppression on only 13 BBE (sub-15) with .397 xwOBAcon is a real ERA/WHIP bleed risk for the #1-ranked ratios team.

⚾ Pitcher List Rankings

PL Top 100 SP · your arms + top FAs.

On Pitcher List · 6 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Pitcher	MLB	Chg	ERA	xERA	K/9	RoS	Pollack’s Take
1	Jacob Misiorowski	MIL	-	1.95	2.10	13.2	3.40	Like a base set Charizard, Misiorowski’s not gonna stop being dope.
9	Blake Snell	LAD	+7	1.91	2.10	12.2	3.31	#HotSnellSummer is in full swing.
10	Dylan Cease	TOR	-1	2.40	2.77	12.7	3.45	Like a perfect burger without the condiments to hit all your macros, Cease gives you everything except for a stable WHIP due to his infla…
20	Kyle Harrison	MIL	+8	3.98	3.74	10.9	4.19	With a dominant outing, he muted our concerns, but Harrison’s still displaying decreased velocity and not commanding as well as he did in…
22	Eury Pérez	MIA	-4	3.94	4.10	9.7	3.91	Pérez has the stuff to be an ace, but there’s polishing to do in the command and game plan departments to unlock his full potential.
29	Sean Burke	CHW	-4	3.58	3.82	9.8	4.43	Burke’s hot streak has come to a brief pause, but he’s still doing everything he’s supposed to with elite four-seamers upstairs and suppo…
30	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	-4	3.78	3.90	6.4	4.17	Baseball’s premier innings eater hasn’t ruined his appetite.
38	Jacob Lopez	ATH	+6	4.78	3.50	8.4	4.55	It’s the 2025 hot streak all over again. Enjoy the ride, ya’ll!
39	Dustin May	MIL	-	4.49	4.24	8.7	4.18	May got Singled Out in a disastrous performance, but his stuff is still dope, and his new situation is ideal. Higher win chance, great de…
43	Andrew Painter	PHI	+UR	5.71	4.55	7.9	4.71	From off The List to inside the Top 50, Painter has stolen our hearts with an improved heater (97+ mph with 17-18″ iVB) and emphasis on r…
45	Peter Lambert	HOU	-4	3.71	3.66	8.7	4.61	Lambert’s stumble last time was a product of being Singled Out . He’s been reliable all year, but we should be recognizing that Holly is …
46	Jared Jones	PIT	-8	4.10	3.43	10.5	3.97	The stuff is top-tier, but he’s still shaking off the Tommy John surgery rust with his command and the tight leash the Pirates have on hi…
54	Joey Cantillo	CLE	-8	3.89	4.21	9.9	4.05	Efficiency is a problem, but Cantillo is doing everything we want. More curveballs, faster fastballs, and supportive cutters. Throw more …
56	Shane Bieber	TOR	+14	4.37	5.96	7.1	4.05	Bieber is back in business. His heater looked awesome in The Trop, and his offspeed pitches are being the CSW monsters they need to be to…
58	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	-	3.77	3.77	6.1	4.67	Despite what the line suggests, Pfaadt’s last start wasn’t an end to his Vargas Rule . It was a textbook Careful, Icarus with a three-run…
59	Christian Scott	NYM	+1	3.81	3.85	10.9	4.04	Scott has been happy to show us his floor, but the stuff is still there to propel him up The List at a moment’s notice. It’s felt a littl…

🔒 Closer Chart

Save targets · roles + regression flags.

🚨 Closer Tier Changes (vs. yesterday)

COLOR SHIFT Atlanta Braves: Raisel Iglesias → Raisel Iglesias (magenta → ) rostered
ROLE CHANGE Chicago Cubs: Jacob Webb → Ryan Zeferjahn (orange → blue) FA — ADD
COLOR SHIFT Los Angeles Angels: Ben Joyce → Ben Joyce ( → magenta) rostered
COLOR SHIFT Minnesota Twins: Yoendrys Gómez → Yoendrys Gómez ( → orange) rostered

BLUEEntrenched closer (highest leverage)GREENNext man up / committee pieceYELLOWSetup, 8th-inning leverageORANGESpeculative / lower priorityMAGENTAHigh-upside future / multi-inning

	Pitcher	Tm	Role	SV	SVHD	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K/9	Rtg / Own
Yours on the chart
—	Andrés Muñoz	Seattle Mariners	CL	27	27	54.3	3.98	1.16	3.21	14.1	5.0 · —
—	Louis Varland	Toronto Blue Jays	CL	33	38	73.3	1.23	1.00	2.23 ↑	11.2	5.0 · —
Top 5 FA closers (by team rating)
—	Dylan Smith	San Francisco Giants	CL	4	11	34.3	3.15	1.40	3.93	10.7	4.0 · 0%
—	Steven Cruz HLR	Kansas City Royals	CL	7	12	55.7	4.04	1.24	4.01	9.5	3.5 · 1%
	Andrew Kittredge	Baltimore Orioles	CL	9	18	45.7	3.74	1.40	3.98	7.5	3.0 · 3%
	Ryan Zeferjahn	Chicago Cubs	CL	6	19	65.0	4.15	1.26	3.21	12.3	3.0 · 1%
	Juan Morillo	Arizona Diamondbacks	CL	3	21	58.3	2.31	1.06	2.48	10.3	1.0 · 3%

ERA cell: green <3.00 · red >4.50. xERA arrow: ↓ ERA likely to fall (buy) · ↑ ERA likely to rise (sell). Triggers when |xERA−ERA| ≥ 1.00.

✂️ Cut List

Drop priority · value, form, pedigree, role.

45	Royce Lewis 3B · Min low TV (17) sim cost ~0	TV 17 Rd 13
28	Kyle Harrison SP · Mil mid TV (43); cold last 7d; UFDA — easy to drop; BUT top-tier keeper sim cost ~0	TV 43 UFDA
24	Sandy Alcantara SP · Mia mid TV (58); BUT solid keeper sim cost ~0	TV 58 Rd 14
14	Joe Ryan SP · Min BUT high-pedigree (Rd 5) sim cost ~0	TV 72 Rd 5
9	Blake Snell SP · LAD BUT strong RoS (3.31 ERA) sim cost ~0	TV 80 Rd 8

Higher score = drop sooner — top 5 by score, and only 8+ reaches the board, so the number has no ceiling and is only comparable within this list. The sim line is a roto-sim marginal (cut vs. keep on one shared set of draws), not a measured cost. Pedigree + named closers shielded.

🌱 Stash List

PL's top prospects · grab them cheap.

Hitters

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 24: Top 10 Hitting Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + PSS + PFV + age + 40-man + path.

20 available — 1 yours

R. Velazquez YOURS

1B/C · CLE · AA · 20 · ⏸ 7d

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

29·2·.290

M. Arroyo

SS · SEA · AAA · 21 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

19·17·.285

S. Thompson

OF · COL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

14·20·.308

J. Tibbs III

OF · LAD · AAA · 23 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

29·10·.294

B. Davidson

OF · SFG · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

September

Szn

28·19·.286

H. Mendez

OF · MIN · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

12·5·.281

M. Anderson

2B · DET · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

17·5·.300

S. Walcott

3B/SS · TEX · AA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

10·12·.329

Z. Hope

OF · DET · AA · 21 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

29·26·.288

C. Ingle

C · CLE · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

20·2·.285

R. Ward

LF · LAD · AAA · 28 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

21·8·.247

C. Cannarella

OF · MIA · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

15·21·.330

E. Arroyo

SS · CIN · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

15·14·.281

R. Clifford

1B · NYM · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

17·8·.177

J. Made

SS · MIL · AA · 19 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

14·36·.270

J. Long

1B · CHC · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

16·3·.274

S. King

SS/2B/3B · WSN · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

19·15·.306

K. Alderman

OF · MIA · AAA · 23 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

18·10·.252

A. Miller

SS · PHI · AA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

0·1·.333

D. Crisantes

2B/3B · ARI · AAA · 21 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

9·0·.290

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

Pitchers

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 24: Top 10 Pitching Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + L3 quality + FV + age + 40-man + path.

29 available

J. Tong

SP · NYM · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

140K·4.57

T. Johnson

SP · TBR · AAA · 24 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

88K·3.06

B. Hopkins

SP · TBR · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

122K·5.17

B. Mautz

SP · STL · AAA · 24 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

100K·4.28

H. Smith

SP · CHW · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

August 1st

Szn

116K·3.33

M. Ullola

SP · HOU · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

100K·4.12

L. Perales

SP · WSN · AAA · 23 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

106K·4.18

A. Kelly

SP · PIT · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

77K·4.47

C. Seymour

SP · SFG · AAA · 27 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

89K·4.19

K. Curtis

SP · PIT · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

115K·4.93

R. Snelling

SP · MIA · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

46K·2.38

D. Sandlin

SP · CHW · AAA · 25 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

99K·3.35

O. Murphy

SP · ATL · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

127K·3.63

D. Davalillo

SP · TEX · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

106K·4.62

J. Wenninger

SP · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

122K·4.21

M. Bratt

SP · ARI · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

84K·3.88

J. Ritchie

SP · ATL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

142K·3.72

G. Wood

SP · PHI · AA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

'26

Szn

139K·4.36

M. Forret

SP · BAL · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

125K·3.89

T. Bremner

SP · LAA · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

100K·4.33

E. Rodriguez

SP · NYY · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

123K·3.09

T. McDougal

SP · CHW · AAA · 23 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

50K·5.09

R. Ryan

SP · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

45K·4.23

B. Garrett

SP · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

June 1st

Szn

114K·3.76

C. Dana

SP · LAA · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

85K·5.52

R. Sloan

SP · SEA · AA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

128K·3.73

C. Crow

SP · MIL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

104K·4.01

T. Gibson

SP · BAL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

107K·5.26

L. Braun

SP · ATL · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

112K·4.18

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

🔭 15 not a 2026 factor — Anthony Eyanson · Jackson Ferris · Liam Doyle · Tyson Hardin · Christian Zazueta · Jackson Wolf · Jurrangelo Cijntje · Jamie Arnold · Bryce Mayer · Jaxon Wiggins · Daniel Eagen · David Hagaman · Jonathan Santucci · Joseph Dzierwa · Karson Milbrandt

💼 Trades

Buy-low targets · league trade history.

Top Buy-Lows

Rebound candidates · suggested offers.

Hitters

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Juan Soto RF · NYM · GARR · jregarris +1.2σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.274 / xBA 0.293 · xwOBA 0.415	100%	159 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Kyle Schwarber DH · comparable value (TV 100 vs target 100)
📈 BUY-LOW	Heriberto Hernandez LF · Mia · FRAN · francisw789 +1.4σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.225 / xBA 0.247 · xwOBA 0.355	10%	99 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Royce Lewis 3B + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 17 vs target 23)
📈 BUY-LOW	JJ Bleday CF · Cin · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.3σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.212 / xBA 0.239 · xwOBA 0.342	21%	100 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Cole Carrigg CF + Henry Bolte RF · two-piece package (TV 27 vs target 26)
↑ mild buy	Taylor Ward LF · Sea · GoOs · My Best Guys +0.7σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.225 / xBA 0.241 · xwOBA 0.335	57%	120 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Sandy Alcantara SP · comparable value (TV 58 vs target 60)
↑ mild buy	Kyle Stowers LF · Mia · KNIG · TKHOO +0.7σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.245 / xBA 0.230 · xwOBA 0.331	28%	111 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Cole Carrigg CF + Henry Bolte RF · two-piece package (TV 27 vs target 27)
↑ mild buy	Ian Happ LF · ChC · FRAN · francisw789 +0.7σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.220 / xBA 0.206 · xwOBA 0.313	70%	109 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 35 vs target 41)
↑ mild buy	Dominic Canzone RF · Sea · GARR · jregarris +0.5σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.255 / xBA 0.266 · xwOBA 0.351	12%	114 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 35 vs target 34)
↑ mild buy	Jarren Duran LF · Bos · RAGE · glhoward40 +0.8σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.207 / xBA 0.235 · xwOBA 0.299	66%	100 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Eury Perez SP + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 50 vs target 57)
↑ mild buy	Heliot Ramos LF · NYY · DORN · Lambertmt48 +0.7σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.242 / xBA 0.256 · xwOBA 0.329	10%	104 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Cole Carrigg CF · comparable value (TV 12 vs target 17)
📈 BUY-LOW	Cal Raleigh C · Sea · KNIG · TKHOO +1.8σ buy-low · C — modest fit · BA 0.182 / xBA 0.190 · xwOBA 0.313	86%	129 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Henry Bolte RF + Blake Snell SP · two-piece package (TV 95 vs target 95)

Pitchers

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Kodai Senga SP · NYM · KRTZ · FratSkins +1.1σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 7.14 vs xERA 5.10	11%	3.88 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Cam Smith RF + +$4 FAAB · comparable value (TV 6 vs target 14)
↑ mild buy	Nick Pivetta SP · SD · GARR · jregarris +0.7σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 3.43 vs xERA 2.42	66%	3.88 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Kyle Harrison SP · comparable value (TV 43 vs target 48)
↑ mild buy	Bryce Miller SP · Sea · BLOB · crenshawh19 +0.5σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.22 vs xERA 3.45	31%	4.15 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Kyle Harrison SP · comparable value (TV 43 vs target 47)
↑ mild buy	Gage Jump SP · Oak · RAGE · glhoward40 +0.6σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 5.12 vs xERA 4.51	7%	4.40 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Cam Smith RF · comparable value (TV 6 vs target 6)
↑ mild buy	Freddy Peralta SP · TB · KNIG · TKHOO +0.6σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.82 vs xERA 3.93	80%	4.03 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Eury Perez SP + +$4 FAAB · comparable value (TV 50 vs target 58)

League History

Completed trades · frozen grade at the deal + live grade now.

Side	Sent	At deal	Now	Trend
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Andy Pages	A- +7	A+ +45	▲ up
Camp MVP	Pete Crow-Armstrong	C -7	F -45	▼ down
Team Knighton ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Team Knighton	Matthew Boyd	F -22	F -23
Camp MVP	Kenley Jansen	A+ +22	A+ +23
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Worst2First 2026-08-10
Miz-waukee’s Best	Charlie Condon, Payton Tolle	A+ +50	A+ +33	▼ down
Worst2First	Dylan Cease	F -50	F -33	▲ up
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Dorn and Associates LLC 2026-08-05
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Travis Bazzana, George Lombard Jr., Nolan McLean	A+ +144	A+ +106	▼ down
Dorn and Associates LLC	Jackson Chourio, Jhoan Duran, Brice Turang, David Bednar	F -144	F -106	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-07-31
Miz-waukee’s Best	Samuel Basallo, Kade Anderson	A- +8	A+ +32	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine	Blake Snell	C -8	F -32	▼ down
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Team Knighton 2026-07-23
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Jo Adell, Jacob deGrom	F -49	F -63	▼ down
Team Knighton	Trea Turner	A+ +49	A+ +63	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine ⇄ Miz-waukee’s Best 2026-07-19
Ramirez Against the Machine	Sandy Alcantara	F -42	F -29	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best	Josh Jung	A+ +42	A+ +29	▼ down
I need Buck Showalter ⇄ Hit the Damn Ball You Bums 2026-06-19
I need Buck Showalter	Nasim Nunez	A+ +28	A +13	▼ down
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Justin Wrobleski	F -28	D -13	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ The Boys of Summer 2026-06-12
Miz-waukee’s Best	Chandler Simpson	A +10	A- +7	▼ down
The Boys of Summer	$30 FAAB	D -10	C -7	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-05-01
Miz-waukee’s Best	Kenley Jansen	—	A- +7
Camp MVP	$30 FAAB	A- +3	C -7	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-04-22
Miz-waukee’s Best	Nathan Eovaldi, $70 FAAB	—	F -81
Ramirez Against the Machine	Jac Caglianone	A+ +60	A+ +81	▲ up

🔻 Sell-High — My Roster

Surface line outrunning the underlying skill — trade-value peaks. σ = his surface-stat z-score minus his Statcast-skill z-score, both against the league reference for his side — bigger σ = further ahead of the skill. Pair with Buy-Low Targets.

Verdict	Player	Own	Surface vs expected	Contact	2027 keeper
↓ SHOP	Henry Bolte RF · Oak 0.61σ sell-high · RF · BA 0.276 / xBA 0.248 · xwOBA 0.317 — test the market, don't force it	12%	BA 0.276 / xBA 0.248 +.028 wOBA 0.338 / xwOBA 0.317 +.021	HH 48.0% · Brl/PA 4.6%	25th · +5 rds vs mkt
↓ SHOP	Yandy Diaz 1B · TB 0.59σ sell-high · 1B · BA 0.303 / xBA 0.287 · xwOBA 0.353 — test the market, don't force it	93%	BA 0.303 / xBA 0.287 +.016 wOBA 0.362 / xwOBA 0.353 +.009	HH 48.3% · Brl/PA 5.5%	7th · +1 rd vs mkt
↓ SHOP	Cole Carrigg CF · Col 0.50σ sell-high · CF · BA 0.266 / xBA 0.252 · xwOBA 0.316 — test the market, don't force it	12%	BA 0.266 / xBA 0.252 +.014 wOBA 0.339 / xwOBA 0.316 +.023	HH 34.6% · Brl/PA 3.6%	25th · +5 rds vs mkt
HOLD — KEEPER PRICE	Louis Varland RP · Tor 0.42σ sell-high · RP · ERA 1.24 vs xERA 2.23 — only move for keeper-grade return	86%	ERA 1.24 / xERA 2.23 -0.99	Brl 4.0% allowed	22nd · +16 rds vs mkt

👥 Your Roster

Your roster · news + buy/sell signals.

News (last 24h)

Player news · last 24h.

Randy Arozarena Mariners pound Athletics 19-1 with 5 home runs, 23 hits
Sun 09-13 04:51 AM
— Randy Arozarena hit one of Seattle's five home runs in a 19-1 shellacking of the Athletics on Saturday night, the Mariners' biggest ever margin of victory.
Jac Caglianone Fantasy baseball news and notes: Luzardo scratched vs. Braves on Saturday
Sat 09-12 03:25 PM
All of the important fantasy spin and actionable takeaways resulting from the latest baseball news.

Leverage Buys/Sells

Buy/sell windows · surface vs. underlying.

Hitters

Player	Pos	MLB	BA	xBA	wOBA	xwOBA	Brl%	Own%	Signal
James Wood	LF	Wsh	0.266	0.274	0.392	0.415	100.0	99.0	📈 BUY-LOW
Kyle Schwarber	DH	Phi	0.236	0.239	0.373	0.365	99.0	99.6	📈 BUY-LOW
Miguel Vargas	3B	ChW	0.247	0.266	0.360	0.382	89.0	94.9	📈 BUY-LOW
Bryce Eldridge	1B	SF	0.267	0.259	0.360	0.357	72.0	14.1	↑ mild buy
Walker Jenkins	CF	Min	0.108	0.159	0.236	0.259	—	4.5	fair
Kaelen Culpepper DTD	SS	Min	0.283	0.252	0.334	0.303	—	5.6	fair
Cam Smith	RF	Hou	0.217	0.242	0.302	0.324	75.0	7.4	↑ mild buy
Royce Lewis	3B	Min	0.231	0.240	0.302	0.311	72.0	13.3	↑ mild buy
Ryan Jeffers	C	Min	0.270	0.257	0.375	0.361	73.0	41.2	fair
Zach Neto	SS	LAA	0.240	0.214	0.333	0.310	74.0	60.7	fair
Jac Caglianone DTD	RF	KC	0.282	0.281	0.355	0.357	90.0	46.9	fair
Randy Arozarena	LF	Sea	0.273	0.257	0.365	0.346	49.0	93.8	fair
Cole Carrigg	CF	Col	0.262	0.252	0.339	0.316	26.0	12.1	↓ mild fade
Yandy Diaz	1B	TB	0.301	0.287	0.362	0.353	47.0	92.8	↓ mild fade
Henry Bolte	RF	Oak	0.277	0.248	0.338	0.317	49.0	12.1	↓ mild fade
Ralphy Velazquez DTD	1B	Cle	—	—	—	—	—	0.7	—

Pitchers

Pitcher	Pos	MLB	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K-BB%	xwOBA-a	Brl%-a	Own%	Signal
Blake Snell	SP	LAD	37.7	1.91	1.09	2.10	22.7	0.225	1.2	90.6	↑ mild buy
Andres Munoz	RP	Sea	54.3	3.98	1.16	3.21	27.4	0.278	8.5	80.5	↑ mild buy
Joe Ryan	SP	Min	129.7	4.10	1.14	3.50	21.6	0.290	10.5	89.4	fair
Jacob Misiorowski	SP	Mil	161.3	1.95	0.80	2.10	31.7	0.225	3.9	99.3	fair
Kyle Harrison	SP	Mil	110.7	3.98	1.31	3.74	21.3	0.299	8.3	56.0	fair
Sandy Alcantara	SP	Mia	200.0	3.78	1.22	3.90	10.6	0.305	5.6	82.7	fair
Dylan Cease	SP	Tor	161.3	2.40	1.04	2.77	24.8	0.259	5.2	99.3	fair
Eury Perez	SP	Mia	139.3	3.94	1.24	4.10	15.1	0.312	10.2	69.5	fair
Louis Varland	RP	Tor	73.3	1.23	1.00	2.23	24.3	0.232	4.0	86.0	↓ mild fade

📰 MLB News — Top Fantasy Stories

🔒 Keepers — 2027 Slate

Peter's model (additive): rounds-saved (cost arbitrage spine) + current skill + career-grade pedigree + sample stability + Statcast over/under-performance trend, with age-decline (33+), closer/RP, and top-30 talent adjustments. Heavy on bargain-hunting.
Claude's model (multiplicative dynasty index): EFV(2027) = (3 + skill + upside) × age_mult × pos_mult; score = EFV − cost_replacement − mookie-lock. Compounds age curve and position scarcity.
Sorted by consensus rank (average of both models). MLB-inactive players surfaced in 🚑 Return Watch below.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict	Notes
1.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	21st	#1 (+24.4)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51	UFDA-G FV 55
2.0	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	22nd	#2 (+21.5)	#2 (+27.1)	S · $27
3.0	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	25th	#3 (+19.6)	#3 (+15.8)	A · $16	UFDA
4.0	Bryce Eldridge	1B · 20yo	25th	#4 (+16.2)	#4 (+14.4)	A · $14	UFDA FV 55
5.0	Henry Bolte	RF · 21yo	25th	#5 (+14.9)	#5 (+13.8)	A · $14	UFDA FV 40
6.0	Dylan Cease	SP · 30yo	4th	#6 (+12.0)	#6 (+11.7)	A · $12
7.0	Eury Perez	SP · 23yo	20th	#7 (+10.5)	#7 (+8.5)	B · $8	UFDA-G
8.0	Jac Caglianone	RF · 22yo	21st	#8 (+10.1)	#8 (+6.8)	B · $7	UFDA-G FV 55

NEW UFDA cap: Peter 3/3 · Claude 3/3 · BOTH = top 8 in both models. Peter only = his model values cost surplus more; Claude only = mine values projection / position scarcity more.

🚑 Return watch — would be keeper-eligible if they get MLB action this year. Rank shown is hypothetical (where they'd slot if eligible).

Player	Pos · Age	Cost	Peter (if elig.)	Claude (if elig.)
Ralphy Velazquez	1B · 19yo	25th	#18 (-2.0)	#13 (+1.4)

Updated Sun Sep 13 · 4:22 AM ET

🌍 League-Wide Top Keepers

Top 10 keepers · all 12 teams · both models. Yours in green.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	Team	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict
1.5	Jesus Luzardo	SP · 28yo	KNIG	21st	#1 (+28.9)	#2 (+42.1)	S · $42
2.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	MIZ	21st	#3 (+24.4)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51
3.5	Jordan Walker	RF · 24yo	GARR	25th	#2 (+25.2)	#5 (+29.9)	S · $30
4.0	Bryan Baker	RP · 31yo	DORN	25th	#4 (+24.1)	#4 (+38.7)	S · $39
6.5	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	MIZ	22nd	#7 (+21.5)	#6 (+27.1)	S · $27
7.0	Cam Schlittler	SP · 24yo	KRTZ	19th	— (+19.6)	#3 (+40.8)	S · $41
8.0	Ben Rice	1B · 27yo	DORN	20th	#5 (+22.2)	— (+15.2)	A · $15
8.5	Payton Tolle	SP · 22yo	FRST	25th	#6 (+21.8)	— (+18.5)	S · $18
9.0	Nolan McLean	SP · 23yo	DORN	20th	— (+17.7)	#7 (+24.0)	S · $24
9.5	Jose Soriano	SP · 27yo	BLOB	25th	#8 (+20.3)	— (+17.1)	A · $17
9.5	Junior Caminero	3B · 22yo	RAGE	5th	— (+12.3)	#8 (+23.3)	S · $23
10.0	Logan Henderson	SP · 23yo	PEYT	25th	#9 (+19.7)	— (+15.8)	A · $16
10.0	Sal Stewart	1B · 21yo	KRTZ	10th	— (+12.3)	#9 (+22.4)	S · $22
10.5	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	MIZ	25th	#10 (+19.6)	— (+15.8)	A · $16
10.5	Riley O'Brien	RP · 31yo	THAR	17th	— (+12.6)	#10 (+21.9)	S · $22

Updated Sun Sep 13 · 4:22 AM ET

🏚️ Keeper Cupboards

Every team's six best keepers · shade = dual-model consensus value. Cupboard score weights the top four heavily (the slots that get kept), keepers 5–8 taper. 100 = league's best cupboard.

Team	K1	K2	K3	K4	K5	K6	Cupboard
1MIZ	MisiorowskiR21	VarlandR22	VargasR25	EldridgeR25	BolteR25	CeaseR4	100
2DORN	BakerR25	RiceR20	McLeanR20	BazzanaR25	LaraR25	AnthonyR18	85
3KNIG	LuzardoR21	deGromR13	AbreuR15	MartinezR25	JensenR20	ChapmanR11	75
4KRTZ	SchlittlerR19	BengeR25	StewartR10	SanojaR25	McGonigleR17	IIR5	71
5FRAN	LatzR25	CavalliR21	BurnsR5	McCarthyR25	AntonacciR25	BradishR21	66
6GoOs	GriffinR25	BradleyR25	GoodmanR21	BurlesonR9	BaldwinR14	WachaR25	64
7PEYT	HendersonR25	SanchezR9	ValdezR25	WooR8	WetherholtR13	MayoR17	59
8THAR	RasmussenR8	O'BrienR17	WilliamsR11	Jr.R16	KeaschallR21	MarshR25	58
9BLOB	SorianoR25	LopezR20	ScottR25	TaylorR25	LileR15	SaleR1	55
10GARR	WalkerR25	MessickR18	CanzoneR25	GrayR7	DinglerR22	SimpsonR9	52
11RAGE ▼ thin	EwingR25	CamineroR5	HerreraR20	BasalloR19	JonesR25	ImanagaR9	51
12FRST ▼ thin	TolleR25	WheelerR8	RouppR25	MuncyR18	SkubalR1	RumfieldR25	47

The bottom two rows are your trade marks — thin cupboards pay up for keepable pieces.

data: snap 0h · BP 19d · PL 19d · HL 16d · PSS 0h · BR 0h · FG 16h · proj 17h · closer 0h · oyster 17h · AAA-sc 5h · cookie ok