Miz-waukee’s Best — The Brandon League

Last updated Friday, September 18 · 09:34 AM ET

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☕ Morning Briefing

🏆 MIZ holds 1st with 103.0 roto points, 11.0 clear of Phil Swift's Flex Seal at #2 — a comfortable lead, but you've shed 3.0 pts since the last update, so no coasting.

⚾ Walker Jenkins was the story yesterday: 3-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI against the Angels — exactly what you're stashing a #14 MLB Pipeline prospect (RI 89) for. Dylan Cease takes the mound tonight; confirm he's active.

📊 Two category alerts worth your attention: your SB cushion is razor-thin with PEYT just 1 SB behind you, and you're leaving a free roto point on the table in ERA — you trail FRST by 0.00, meaning you're essentially tied and one bad start could cost you that point. With Cease going tonight, manage his outing accordingly. On the wire, Rico Garcia (confirmed closer, rank 4, 5-save gap to gain) is tagged as available and addresses your SB-adjacent category needs, and Andrew Sears (FA, 88/99 suppression on 31 BBE) is the top ERA/WHIP-safe streaming option if you need an arm.

🌱 Off the stash board, Kemp Alderman (RI 86, FA) put up a monster line at AAA — 2-for-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 1 BB vs. Scranton/WB — worth monitoring as a future add. Also notable: Anthony Volpe was just dropped by Hit the Damn Ball You Bums and is now a free agent if you want the underlying-skills upside (+nanσ).

📰 Aaron Nola is surging at exactly the right time — 2.10 ERA over his last 10 starts, eight straight outings of two earned runs or fewer — while Luis Castillo has been moved to the bullpen by Chicago after posting a 7.76 ERA and 1.79 WHIP over 29 innings, effectively removing him from roto consideration. Landon Knack, recalled by the Dodgers, is tagged as available (FA) if you need rotation depth. Devin Williams may be nearing activation but reportedly may not immediately return to closing duties, making his saves value uncertain in this final week.

ELIGIBILITYK. Schwarber 1B 8/10T. Saggese 3B 6/10

Your standing

1stof 12

103.0 roto pts +11.0 clear of 2nd

-3.0 pts vs last update

Top Gaps

W (7.0)

categories below mid-pack

Score change since last update

AVG -1.0ERA -1.0WHIP -1.0

🎯 Category Pressure

Category ranks vs. the league.

Rank →

Δ to #1

1017

1099

🥇

291

324

🥇

RBI

966

999

🥇

157

158

172

212

+54

AVG

.253

.254

.256

.260

+0.006

1283

1298

1463

+165

+14

103

+18

ERA

3.56

3.45

−0.00

WHIP

1.18

1.16

−0.00

📅 Yesterday's MIZ Box Scores (2026-09-17)

Loading box scores…

🏥 IL Rehab Tracker

IL players · rehab game logs.

On the IL, no rehab games yet: Kaelen Culpepper (IL10), Spencer Schwellenbach (IL60 · watch).

📊 League Activity (last 24h)

All adds, drops, and trades across the 12 teams.

Team	Move
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	+ Joey Ortiz \| − Andre Pallante
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	+ Brett Baty \| − Yusei Kikuchi
Miz-waukee’s Best	+ Thomas Saggese
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	+ Richie Palacios \| − Anthony Volpe
Phil Swift's Flex Seal	+ Ty France \| − Angel Martinez
Phil Swift's Flex Seal	− Andres Gimenez

🏆 League Standings

Current roto points · 10,000-sim projected finish. FAAB = acquisition budget remaining.

100.0% to win the league · proj finish 1.0 · 103.1 roto pts

#	Team	Pts	FAAB	Win%	Proj Pts	Range	Proj Rk
1	MIZ Miz-waukee’s Best	103.0	$0	100.0%	103.1	102–105	1.0
2	PEYT Phil Swift's Flex Seal	92.0	$21	0.0%	91.7	90–94	2.0
3	KRTZ Photogenic Nick Kurtz	85.0	$16	0.0%	86.0	84–88	3.0
4	FRAN Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	79.5	$24	0.0%	80.0	78–82	4.0
5	BLOB Camp MVP	67.0	$168	0.0%	69.0	66–72	5.0
6	THAR Phil Mickeltits	62.5	$176	0.0%	61.7	60–64	6.2
7	GoOs I need Buck Showalter	62.5	$170	0.0%	60.5	58–63	6.7
8	KNIG Team Knighton	58.5	$132	0.0%	58.1	56–61	7.7
9	FRST Worst2First	46.5	$154	0.0%	47.2	45–50	9.2
10	DORN Dorn and Associates LLC	44.5	$89	0.0%	44.2	43–46	10.8
11	GARR The Boys of Summer	44.5	$155	0.0%	46.2	45–47	9.7
12	RAGE Ramirez Against the Machine	34.5	$163	0.0%	32.2	30–34	12.0

10,000 sims · fixed seed · noise CV talent 0.12 / idio 0.06 / team-cat 0.08 · assumes ATC rest-of-season rates

Your categories · projected roto points

R 12.0HR 12.0RBI 12.0SB 9.0AVG 8.6W 7.0SV 9.0K 11.0ERA 11.3WHIP 11.3

Winnable — push here: SB, AVG, W, SV.

🚨 Today's Streaming Board

171 of 200 GS · should be 190 · 19 behindBehind pace — stream aggressively

029 left · ~22.6/wk to cap · proj 180200

⏳ BP's post is late — Verdict pill is running on our score + Pitcher List for now (BP joins the top-2 once it posts).

Your starters + top FA streamers

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Dylan Cease	@ TEX	START	—	6.9	#3	Velocity down 2+ ticks; WHIP spiking despite strikeouts.
Dustin May	@ BAL	START	—	4.6	#10	Bad luck masking talent; maintain confidence.
Peter Lambert	vs ATL	START	—	5.1	#12	Low-end streamable; viable vs. Atlanta.
David Sandlin	vs DET	DART	—	5.3	—	tough DET lineup, strong skills
Connor Prielipp	@ LAA	DART	—	6.5	#17	High strikeout upside, elevated ratio risk, lower volume.
Andrew Painter	@ NYM	DART	—	4.4	—	average NYM lineup, weak skills
Zac Thornton	vs PHI	SIT	—	4.2	#16	Skeptical long-term; routinely delivers six frames.
Andrew Sears	@ CWS	SIT	—	6.4	#26	Unproven rookie; opponent offense only hope.
Randy Dobnak	@ PIT	SIT	—	4.3	#18	Possibly undertiered; safe floor, ghastly ceiling.
Cesar Perdomo	@ LAD	SIT	—	4.1	#25	Changeup-dependent flier; slim odds vs. Dodgers.
Tyler Phillips	@ SD	SIT	—	4.1	#27	Sporadic upside not worth the ceiling risk.

Openers filtered: Daniel Espino

Your staff: 3.45 ERA / 1.16 WHIP · GS 171/200 — Behind pace — stream aggressively. Verdict = the best 2 of BP · our score · Pitcher List, averaged (low outlier dropped); before BP posts it's our score + PL. ⚠ = our matchup score dissented — eyeball that one. Tap a MIZ score for the reasoning.

Tomorrow · 2 of yours + top 5 FA · Sat 9/19 · BP not out yet, so pill = our score + Pitcher List

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Joe Ryan	@ LAA	DART	—	5.2	—	soft LAA lineup, shaky recent form, short leash
Eury Pérez	@ SD	SIT	—	3.8	—	average SD lineup, shaky recent form, short leash
Christian Scott	vs PHI	START	—	6.8	—	average PHI lineup, hot recent form, strong skills
Freddy Peralta	vs BOS	START	—	6.6	—	average BOS lineup, hot recent form, strong skills
Andrew Alvarez	@ STL	START	—	6.1	—	average STL lineup, hot recent form
Hayden Wesneski	vs ATL	START	—	5.8	—	tough ATL lineup, hot recent form, strong skills
Robert Gasser	@ BAL	DART	—	5.6	—	average BAL lineup, hot recent form, hitter park

📼 Streamer Report Card

Does the Streaming Board actually work? Every pick it showed, frozen at pick time and graded off the real box score. Two scoreboards below: first our own calls — the Verdict ladder and MIZ (our matchup score, 0–10) — then the outside lists behind them, BP (RelieverRecon's daily BP Streamers post) and PL (Pitcher List's tier ranking). Grades are recomputed from raw lines on every build — the rubric can change, the history follows.

Last 30d · 336 starts graded over 29 days · GOOD+ 44% · BLOWUP 19% · agg ERA 4.48 · WHIP 1.38 · 4.4 K/start · 372 picks logged, 22 never started, 14 awaiting a box score — not graded

Grade mix · all 336 graded starts

GEM 51 GOOD 98 OK 124 BLOWUP 63

GEM6+ IP, ≤1 ER · or 6+ IP, 8+ K, ≤2 ERGOODquality start (6+ IP, ≤3 ER) · or 5+ IP, ≤2 EROKheld the line without earning GOODBLOWUP5+ ER · or under 4 IP with 4+ ERGOOD+ = GEM + GOOD. A pick whose starter never took the ball grades to nothing and leaves every rate below.

Cohort	n	GOOD+	BLOWUP	ERA
Q1 — Do our own calls work? · Verdict ladder + MIZ bands · live board rows only, nothing backfilled
Verdict · AUTO START	21	62%	19%	4.06
Verdict · START	46	52%	17%	4.65
Verdict · DART	78	45%	19%	4.56
Verdict · SIT	191	40%	19%	4.44
MIZ ≥ 5.0	101	53%	23%	4.51
MIZ 3.5–4.9	134	40%	19%	4.71
MIZ < 3.5	81	42%	15%	4.32
All live board picks	336	44%	19%	4.48
Q1 read — GOOD+ falls 62% · 52% · 45% · 40% down the rungs, but BLOWUP does not rise with it, and MIZ does not sort: 53% · 40% · 42% from the top band down.
Q2 — Which outside list earns the weight? · BP and PL graded on their own published lists · mostly rebuilt from git
PL · Auto Start	22	55%	23%	4.80
PL · Probably Start	50	52%	16%	4.30
PL · Questionable Start	93	51%	18%	4.31
PL · Do Not Start	146	38%	21%	4.74
BP · Auto thin	3	67%	0%	3.78
BP · Likely	15	53%	20%	4.06
All graded picks	336	44%	19%	4.48
Q2 read — against the 44% all-picks baseline, PL's top tiers clear it (55% · 52%) and BP's top tiers are too thin to call (67% · 53% on n=3 · n=15).

Rows are overlapping lenses on the same picks, not a partition — one start can be a PL Auto Start and a Verdict SIT at once, so they never sum to the headline; each group is read against its own baseline row.

⚠ Dissent check — the override is ahead so far — 60% GOOD+ on n=5. Splits are picks the board started over our MIZ sit-call (vs 44% for all live picks).

Calibration — do our numbers mean anything? · full season, 2026-06-29→2026-09-17 · 1094 graded picks · MIZ on 547, BP on 230, Verdict on 575

The ladder above asks whether the tiers sort. This asks the harder question: is the number a probability — when the board says 7, do 70% of those starts come back GOOD+? Bins are equal-count and merge until every one clears n=15; the walk-forward rows are scored against a model that only ever saw earlier days.

Score bin	n	mean	GOOD+	95% CI
MIZ score → P(GOOD+) · our matchup score, 0–10 · live rows only · n=547
MIZ 0.5–3.2	109	2.6	39%	30%–48%
MIZ 3.3–4.0	120	3.6	45%	36%–54%
MIZ 4.1–4.8	111	4.4	50%	41%–60%
MIZ 4.9–5.6	106	5.2	50%	41%–59%
MIZ 5.7–8.9	101	6.4	56%	47%–66%
All MIZ-scored picks	547	—	48%	—
BP score → P(GOOD+) · RelieverRecon's published rating · includes git-backfilled rows · n=230
BP 4.6–6.6	48	6.1	35%	23%–50%
BP 6.7–7.3	44	7.0	52%	38%–66%
BP 7.4–7.7	47	7.5	45%	31%–59%
BP 7.8–8.4	47	8.1	47%	33%–61%
BP 8.5–10.0	44	9.1	43%	30%–58%
All BP-scored picks	230	—	44%	—
Verdict tier → P(GOOD+) · the consensus call itself · live rows only
AUTO START	36	—	64%	48%–78%
START	74	—	55%	44%–66%
DART	152	—	47%	39%–55%
SIT	313	—	44%	39%–50%

Out-of-sample	n	value	vs
Walk-forward probability · logistic on MIZ, refit daily on earlier days only · from 2026-08-05 · 43 days
Brier — our probability	483	0.250	lower is better
Brier — flat base rate to date	483	0.253	we win by 0.004
Brier — verdict-tier history	483	0.254	we win by 0.005
Log loss — our probability	483	0.692	lower is better
ECE — our probability	483	0.069	5 equal-count bins
ECE bins · predicted p vs what actually happened
said 31%–45%	98	43%	off by 2%
said 45%–50%	95	38%	off by 10%
said 50%–55%	97	45%	off by 7%
said 55%–59%	96	47%	off by 10%
said 59%–74%	97	57%	off by 7%
Verdict — usable with caveats: ECE 0.069 over n=483 out-of-sample picks (≤0.03 well calibrated · ≤0.07 usable with caveats); edges the flat base rate on Brier (0.250 vs 0.253, a thin margin; log-loss ~coin-flip).

🔥 Today's Hitter Streamers

Top 10 FA bats for today's slate · score = split vs SP hand (35%) + SP softness (35%) + bat quality (15%) + trailing 15 days (10%) + park (5%) · facing an elite arm fades the score hard (feast on weak pitchers).

#	Hitter	Matchup	Why	Legs	Score
1	AUTO STARTNathaniel Lowe1B · 1% own	vs ATH · Barnett RHP	szn .337 xwOBAL15: 0.821 OPS (40 PA)L14 contact +2.6 (.428 xwOBAcon, 24 BBE)usually bats 5thbeats 2 of 3 eligible startersBarnett .350 allowed · soft SP0.84 OPS vs RHP (323 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	72
2	STARTRyan JeffersC · 38% own	@ LAA · Rodriguez RHP	szn .350 xwOBAL15: 0.479 OPS (38 PA)L14 contact -1.3 (.342 xwOBAcon, 23 BBE)usually bats 4th (×1.05)beats 1 of 2 eligible startersRodriguez .356 allowed · soft SP0.843 OPS vs RHP (189 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	71
3	AUTO STARTRafael Flores Jr.1B · 3% own	vs KC · Dobnak RHP	szn .344 xwOBAL15: 0.966 OPS (42 PA)L14 contact +4.4 (.467 xwOBAcon, 28 BBE)usually bats 4th (×1.05)beats 3 of 4 eligible startersshort side vs RHP — 51% of ABDobnak .325 allowed · avg SP0.796 OPS vs RHP (65 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	68
4	AUTO STARTDustin HarrisLF · 2% own	vs MIA · Phillips RHP	szn .336 xwOBAL15: 0.871 OPS (39 PA)L14 contact -0.4 (.362 xwOBAcon, 32 BBE)usually bats 2nd (×1.10)fills OF needbeats 4 of 6 eligible startersPhillips .332 allowed · soft SP0.792 OPS vs RHP (83 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	65
5	CONSIDERAlejandro KirkC · 41% own	@ TEX · Rocker RHP	szn .312 xwOBAL15: 0.928 OPS (40 PA)L14 contact -0.4 (.361 xwOBAcon, 32 BBE)usually bats 4th (×1.05)beats 0 of 2 eligible startersRocker .329 allowed · soft SP0.765 OPS vs RHP (174 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	58
6	CONSIDERLuis CampusanoC · 1% own	vs MIA · Phillips RHP	szn .333 xwOBAL15: 0.741 OPS (51 PA)L14 contact +0.5 (.381 xwOBAcon, 38 BBE)usually bats 6th (×0.98)beats 0 of 2 eligible startersPhillips .332 allowed · soft SP0.808 OPS vs RHP (158 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	57
7	STARTLars NootbaarLF · 2% own	vs NYY · Cole RHP	szn .346 xwOBAL15: 0.829 OPS (40 PA)L14 contact +2.3 (.421 xwOBAcon, 24 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)fills OF needbeats 3 of 6 eligible startersCole .303 allowed · avg SP0.77 OPS vs RHP (217 AB)AZ plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	55
8	AUTO STARTEdmundo Sosa2B · 1% own	@ NYM · Thornton LHP	szn .328 xwOBAusually bats 6th (×0.98)fills OF needbeats 7 of 11 eligible startersThornton .329 allowed · soft SP0.781 OPS vs LHP (120 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	53
9	AUTO STARTChristian Encarnacion-Strand1B · 3% own	vs MIL · May RHP	szn .342 xwOBAL15: 1.022 OPS (51 PA)L14 contact +3.2 (.442 xwOBAcon, 29 BBE)usually bats 6th (×0.98)beats 3 of 4 eligible startersMay .317 allowed · avg SP0.702 OPS vs RHP (110 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	51
10	AUTO STARTJ.P. CrawfordSS · 5% own	@ COL · TBD	szn .323 xwOBAL15: 0.740 OPS (60 PA)L14 contact -3.8 (.285 xwOBAcon, 42 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)beats 3 of 5 eligible startersSP: TBDCOL plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	51

Tiers vs YOUR lineup tonight — median starter 48, worst Henry Bolte (18). AUTO START = beats the median eligible starter.

TBD starter = neutral SP + split legs until the probable posts (refresh upgrades it). Splits need 30+ AB vs that hand. IL bats are excluded; bats who rarely start against tonight's hand are dropped. Doubleheaders: legs average the ends he plays, and everyday bats get up to a ×1.50 volume boost. Lineup slot scales the score by expected PAs from the bat's usual spot (leadoff ×1.12 … 9-hole ×0.90, modal over the last ~10 played days) — his typical order, not today's card, since that posts after waivers run.

🎯 FA Hitters — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Kyle Schwarber

1Rafael Flores Jr.1B · Pit · 2.7%HEATER

Best trusted heat: 77/99 on 28 BBE, .405 BA L14, .400 BA L7 — sustained elite contact quality

Heat 77 · 28 BBE · ATC 21 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.234 · L7 0.4 · 1 HR · sim +0.0 pts

2Moises Ballesteros

C · LAA · 1.8% · HEATER

76/99 heat on 28 BBE, .394 BA L14, .375 L7, 4 RBI last week — volume plus contact quality confirmed

Heat 76 · 28 BBE · ATC 33 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.248 · L7 0.375 · 1 HR · sim +0.0 pts

3Connor Norby

3B · Col · 2.4% · CATEGORY FIT

SB chip (1 SB L7, 1 proj RoS), .381 BA L7, most PA projected — addresses MIZ's live SB and AVG gaps

Heat 70 · 26 BBE · ATC 30 PA · 1 HR · 1 SB · 0.254 · L7 0.381 · 0 HR · sim +0.0 pts

4Nathaniel Lowe

1B · Cle · 1.4% · FLOOR

76/99 heat on 24 BBE, wRC+ 105 projection, 7 RBI L14 — safest volume/floor among remaining trusted samples

Heat 76 · 24 BBE · ATC 22 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.250 · L7 0.286 · 0 HR · sim +0.0 pts

5Jordan Lawlar

3B · Ari · 2.5% · CATEGORY FIT

SB upside plus L7 multi-cat (HR, 3R, 3RBI, 1SB) targets both live MIZ needs simultaneously

Heat 68 · 18 BBE · ATC 25 PA · 1 HR · 1 SB · 0.237 · L7 0.294 · 1 HR · sim +0.0 pts

Passed on: Randal Grichuk has the hottest BA (.406 L14) and solid 26-BBE heat, but only 13 projected PA remaining makes volume insufficient to move roto needle.

💪 Hitter List Rankings

PL Top 150 hitters · your bats + top FAs.

On Hitter List · 17 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Hitter	MLB	Pos	Chg	AVG	xwOBA	HR	SB	RoS	Chu’s Take
16	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	DH	+3	.236	.365	45	3	123
18	Randy Arozarena	SEA	OF	-	.278	.346	25	23	127
21	Miguel Vargas	CHW	1B/3B	+19	.248	.379	31	19	115	Miguel Vargas has returned to the levels we saw early this summer and that really revs my engine. He’s one of those players who has shown…
36	Yandy Díaz	TB	1B	+3	.295	.350	22	3	122
46	Zach Neto	LAA	SS	+11	.241	.311	26	21	111	Zach Neto has been a monster over the last nine games, with 17 hits, 18 combined runs and RBI (a seven RBI night helps), and seven extra-…
59	Jac Caglianone	KC	1B/OF	+13	.277	.353	23	6	107	Jac Caglianone still hits a lot of grounders, but not quite as many as before (the rolling 15-game rate is a hair below 50%) and the stri…
77	Royce Lewis	MIN	1B/2B/3B	-15	.226	.311	14	15	96	Royce Lewis is streaky. We just gotta deal with that.
85	Cole Carrigg	COL	SS/OF	-22	.266	.313	10	9	66	The strikeouts have creeped up on Cole Carrigg , up to 32% over his last 11 games (which is, conveniently, exactly 50 plate appearances).…
106	Luis Robert Jr.	BAL	OF	+UR	.221	.321	11	2	100
109	Mickey Gasper	BOS	C/1B	+UR	.263	.372	9	0	104	Mickey Gasper — Fantastic mustache, first of all. Second of all, the batted ball data suggests what’s happening of late is very real, tho…
115	Kaelen Culpepper	MIN	SS	+UR	.275	.298	3	1	90	Kaelen Culpepper — Culpepper puts a lot of balls in play and it’s working out so far. The BABIP Gods can be cruel, though. The 55 point g…
119	Rafael Flores Jr.	PIT	C/1B	+UR	.268	.344	9	0	82
133	Connor Norby	COL	1B/2B/3B	+UR	.235	.307	7	9	90	Connor Norby still has huge contact issues but the guy can hit the ball hard in the air and plays for Colorado so stream away.
135	Henry Bolte	ATH	OF	+UR	.275	.318	11	21	93	Henry Bolte is leading off again and should get some games in Sacramento soon, if you need a streamer.
137	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	BAL	1B/3B	+UR	.277	.342	10	1	91
143	Alejandro Kirk	TOR	C	+UR	.280	.312	10	1	113
145	Tyler Stephenson	CIN	C	-33	.247	.330	15	0	94
146	Ryan Jeffers	MIN	C	-29	.259	.350	14	1	116
148	Andruw Monasterio	BOS	2B/SS	-26	.239	.292	6	4	89
149	Dylan Crews	WSH	OF	-35	.222	.312	11	9	83
TS	Bryce Eldridge	SF	1B	—	.269	.359	17	1	99	Bryce Eldridge (1B, SFG) — Power prospects can often take a while to really shine.
TS	Walker Jenkins	Min	OF	—	.143	.244	2	1	102	Walker Jenkins (OF, MIN) — Jenkins will get the call today after a white-hot month in the triple-A. He’s worth a scoop in most leagues, E…
UR	Emmanuel Rodriguez	Min	OF	—	.217	.480	1	0	95	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	James Wood	Wsh	OF	—	.265	.412	30	21	126	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Leo Bernal	StL	C	—	.295	.378	3	0	84	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Thomas Saggese	StL	2B/SS/OF	—	.267	.319	4	4	83	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Victor Mesa Jr.	TB	OF	—	.252	.335	13	9	88	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.

🔥 Heat Board

Hottest ACTIVE free-agent bats by contact quality, 9/4–9/17 · Heat = percentile vs all MLB bats over the same window (xwOBAcon 30 · EV 20 · Brl 20 · HH 15 · K 10 · BB 5) · min 15 BBE to qualify (smaller samples live in the HM rail) · IL excluded.

Rafael Flores Jr.

1B · Pit · 2.7% own · xwOBAcon .467 · EV 92.2 · Brl 10.7% · 28 BBE

▲ .137 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.268	9	20	15	0
L14	.405	2	3	3	0

Moises Ballesteros

C · LAA · 1.8% own · xwOBAcon .420 · EV 91.5 · Brl 10.7% · 28 BBE

▲ .166 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.228	9	35	25	1
L14	.394	2	6	3	0

Nathaniel Lowe

1B · Cle · 1.4% own · xwOBAcon .428 · EV 91.7 · Brl 12.5% · 24 BBE

▲ .012 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.255	17	59	38	0
L14	.267	2	7	4	0

Lars Nootbaar

LF · Ari · 2.4% own · xwOBAcon .421 · EV 92.3 · Brl 8.3% · 24 BBE

▲ .052 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.238	7	31	31	2
L14	.290	1	4	2	0

Francisco Alvarez

C · NYM · 8.8% own · xwOBAcon .444 · EV 91.5 · Brl 13.6% · 22 BBE

▼ .050 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.226	15	37	33	0
L14	.176	2	3	4	0

Taylor Trammell

CF · Hou · 0.1% own · xwOBAcon .427 · EV 90.6 · Brl 17.6% · 17 BBE

▼ .025 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.210	8	22	29	4
L14	.185	1	2	3	0

Connor Norby

3B · Col · 2.4% own · xwOBAcon .463 · EV 88.1 · Brl 15.4% · 26 BBE

▲ .126 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.235	7	31	34	9
L14	.361	1	5	7	1

Randal Grichuk

RF · ChW · 0.5% own · xwOBAcon .420 · EV 92.8 · Brl 3.8% · 26 BBE

▲ .120 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.286	13	39	36	0
L14	.406	2	5	4	0

Jordan Lawlar

3B · Ari · 2.5% own · xwOBAcon .487 · EV 87.9 · Brl 16.7% · 18 BBE

▼ .031 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.264	5	13	15	5
L14	.233	1	3	4	1

Kyle Teel

C · ChW · 4.0% own · xwOBAcon .476 · EV 84.5 · Brl 20.0% · 15 BBE

▲ .011 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.196	4	20	14	0
L14	.207	2	6	5	0

Honorable mention · hottest L7 (9/11–9/17), not yet on the board · tiny samples — peek, don't trust

Michael Arroyo

2B · Sea

.549 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .444 L7

Drew Gilbert

RF · SF

.546 xwOBAcon

9 BBE · .250 L7

Pavin Smith

1B · Ari

.465 xwOBAcon

10 BBE · .333 L7

Brady House

3B · Wsh

.367 xwOBAcon

10 BBE · .167 L7

Andres Chaparro

1B · Wsh

.489 xwOBAcon

9 BBE · .333 L7

John Rave

RF · KC

.444 xwOBAcon

10 BBE · .143 L7

🎯 FA Pitchers — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Andres Munoz

1Andrew SearsSP · Det · 0.3%HEATER

Elite 88/99 suppression on trusted 31-BBE sample; ratios safe for ERA/WHIP protection

Supp 88 · 31 BBE · ATC 4.0 IP · 0 W · 4 K · 4.36 · 1.36 · PL #26 · sim -0.1 pts

2Rico Garcia

RP · Bal · 11.3% · CATEGORY FIT

Confirmed closer role, SV upside at rank 4 with 5-save gap to gain; suppression concern offset by role certainty

Supp 73 · 14 BBE · ATC 4.0 IP · 0 W · 4 K · 4.22 · 1.30 · 1 SV · Closer · sim -0.1 pts

3Dylan Smith

RP · SF · 0.4% · CATEGORY FIT

Closer role confirmed, 1 projected SV, 18-BBE suppression trusted enough; best ratio profile among closer FAs

Supp 62 · 18 BBE · ATC 4.0 IP · 0 W · 3 K · 3.84 · 1.31 · 1 SV · Closer · sim -0.1 pts

4Juan Morillo

RP · Ari · 3.1% · UPSIDE

Closer role confirmed; ATC projects SV; 14-BBE suppression untrustworthy but role + SV need justifies grab

Supp 45 · 14 BBE · ATC 3.0 IP · 0 W · 3 K · 3.83 · 1.36 · 1 SV · Closer · sim -0.1 pts

5Connor Prielipp

SP · Min · 3.8% · BEST VALUE

Best ERA/K balance among SP streamers; 62/99 suppression on 31 trusted BBE, ratios won't hurt rank 2 ERA/WHIP

Supp 62 · 31 BBE · ATC 8.0 IP · 0 W · 8 K · 4.00 · 1.32 · PL #17 · sim -0.1 pts

Passed on: Dustin May ranked #10 by Pitcher List but L14 suppression is a disqualifying 25/99 on 25 BBE — hard-contact nightmare that would bleed MIZ's razor-thin ERA/WHIP leads.

⚾ Pitcher List Rankings

PL Top 100 SP · your arms + top FAs.

On Pitcher List · 6 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Pitcher	MLB	Chg	ERA	xERA	K/9	RoS	Pollack’s Take
1	Jacob Misiorowski	MIL	-	1.89	2.08	13.1	3.40	Like a base set Charizard, Misiorowski’s not gonna stop being dope.
9	Blake Snell	LAD	+7	1.86	2.15	12.1	3.31	#HotSnellSummer is in full swing.
10	Dylan Cease	TOR	-1	2.38	2.79	12.8	3.45	Like a perfect burger without the condiments to hit all your macros, Cease gives you everything except for a stable WHIP due to his infla…
20	Kyle Harrison	MIL	+8	4.25	3.85	10.9	4.19	With a dominant outing, he muted our concerns, but Harrison’s still displaying decreased velocity and not commanding as well as he did in…
22	Eury Pérez	MIA	-4	3.99	4.10	9.7	3.91	Pérez has the stuff to be an ace, but there’s polishing to do in the command and game plan departments to unlock his full potential.
29	Sean Burke	CHW	-4	3.47	3.82	9.7	4.43	Burke’s hot streak has come to a brief pause, but he’s still doing everything he’s supposed to with elite four-seamers upstairs and suppo…
30	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	-4	3.84	3.90	6.5	4.17	Baseball’s premier innings eater hasn’t ruined his appetite.
38	Jacob Lopez	ATH	+6	5.02	3.50	8.4	4.55	It’s the 2025 hot streak all over again. Enjoy the ride, ya’ll!
39	Dustin May	MIL	-	4.49	4.24	8.7	4.18	May got Singled Out in a disastrous performance, but his stuff is still dope, and his new situation is ideal. Higher win chance, great de…
43	Andrew Painter	PHI	+UR	5.54	4.55	7.8	4.71	From off The List to inside the Top 50, Painter has stolen our hearts with an improved heater (97+ mph with 17-18″ iVB) and emphasis on r…
45	Peter Lambert	HOU	-4	3.71	3.69	8.7	4.61	Lambert’s stumble last time was a product of being Singled Out . He’s been reliable all year, but we should be recognizing that Holly is …
46	Jared Jones	PIT	-8	4.17	3.43	10.8	3.97	The stuff is top-tier, but he’s still shaking off the Tommy John surgery rust with his command and the tight leash the Pirates have on hi…
54	Joey Cantillo	CLE	-8	3.89	4.16	9.9	4.05	Efficiency is a problem, but Cantillo is doing everything we want. More curveballs, faster fastballs, and supportive cutters. Throw more …
56	Shane Bieber	TOR	+14	4.37	5.96	7.1	4.05	Bieber is back in business. His heater looked awesome in The Trop, and his offspeed pitches are being the CSW monsters they need to be to…
58	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	-	3.77	3.87	6.1	4.67	Despite what the line suggests, Pfaadt’s last start wasn’t an end to his Vargas Rule . It was a textbook Careful, Icarus with a three-run…
59	Christian Scott	NYM	+1	3.76	3.69	10.9	4.04	Scott has been happy to show us his floor, but the stuff is still there to propel him up The List at a moment’s notice. It’s felt a littl…

🔒 Closer Chart

Save targets · roles + regression flags.

BLUEEntrenched closer (highest leverage)GREENNext man up / committee pieceYELLOWSetup, 8th-inning leverageORANGESpeculative / lower priorityMAGENTAHigh-upside future / multi-inning

	Pitcher	Tm	Role	SV	SVHD	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K/9	Rtg / Own
Yours on the chart
—	Andrés Muñoz	Seattle Mariners	CL	27	27	56.0	4.18	1.20	3.28	14.0	5.0 · —
—	Louis Varland	Toronto Blue Jays	CL	34	39	76.0	1.30	1.00	2.30	11.2	5.0 · —
Top 5 FA closers (by team rating)
—	Rico Garcia	Baltimore Orioles	CL	9	27	64.3	2.94	0.96	2.93	9.1	4.0 · 11%
	Dylan Smith	San Francisco Giants	CL	4	11	36.0	3.50	1.47	3.98	10.5	4.0 · 0%
—	Steven Cruz HLR	Kansas City Royals	CL	7	12	56.7	4.13	1.25	3.96	9.8	3.5 · 1%
	Ryan Zeferjahn	Chicago Cubs	CL	6	19	67.0	4.03	1.28	3.18	12.2	3.0 · 1%
—	Michael Petersen	Miami Marlins	CL	1	26	61.3	3.08	1.11	3.43	10.9	3.0 · 2%

ERA cell: green <3.00 · red >4.50. xERA arrow: ↓ ERA likely to fall (buy) · ↑ ERA likely to rise (sell). Triggers when |xERA−ERA| ≥ 1.00.

✂️ Cut List

Drop priority · value, form, pedigree, role.

52	Royce Lewis 3B · Min low TV (17) sim cost ~0	TV 17 Rd 13
45	Jared Jones SP · Pit low TV (19); UFDA — easy to drop; BUT solid keeper sim cost ~0	TV 19 UFDA
29	Blake Snell SP · LAD mid TV (42); injury status: DTD; BUT strong RoS (3.31 ERA) sim cost ~0	TV 42 Rd 8
24	Sandy Alcantara SP · Mia mid TV (58); cold last 7d; BUT solid keeper sim cost ~0	TV 58 Rd 14
16	Yandy Diaz 1B · TB BUT strong RoS (122 wRC+) sim cost ~0	TV 73 Rd 9

Higher score = drop sooner — top 5 by score, and only 8+ reaches the board, so the number has no ceiling and is only comparable within this list. The sim line is a roto-sim marginal (cut vs. keep on one shared set of draws), not a measured cost. Pedigree + named closers shielded.

🌱 Stash List

PL's top prospects · grab them cheap.

Hitters

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 24: Top 10 Hitting Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + PSS + PFV + age + 40-man + path.

17 available

M. Arroyo

SS · SEA · AAA · 21 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

19·18·.284

J. Tibbs III

OF · LAD · AAA · 23 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

29·10·.289

S. Thompson

OF · COL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

15·21·.308

H. Mendez

OF · MIN · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

12·5·.286

M. Anderson

2B · DET · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

17·5·.301

R. Clifford

1B · NYM · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

18·8·.181

K. Alderman

OF · MIA · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

19·10·.252

C. Ingle

C · CLE · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

20·2·.281

C. Cannarella

OF · MIA · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

15·21·.326

S. King

SS/2B/3B · WSN · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

20·15·.306

R. Ward

LF · LAD · AAA · 28 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

21·8·.246

J. Long

1B · CHC · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

16·3·.274

B. Davidson

OF · SFG · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

September

Szn

29·19·.284

E. Arroyo

SS · CIN · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

15·14·.278

R. Velazquez

1B/C · CLE · AA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

29·2·.293

D. Crisantes

2B/3B · ARI · AAA · 21 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

10·0·.289

T. Troy

SS · ARI · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

8·8·.278

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

Pitchers

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 24: Top 10 Pitching Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + L3 quality + FV + age + 40-man + path.

24 available

O. Murphy

SP · ATL · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

129K·3.70

T. Johnson

SP · TBR · AAA · 24 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

89K·3.17

B. Hopkins

SP · TBR · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

124K·5.25

B. Mautz

SP · STL · AAA · 24 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

104K·4.27

H. Smith

SP · CHW · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

August 1st

Szn

121K·3.40

L. Perales

SP · WSN · AAA · 23 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

108K·4.10

A. Kelly

SP · PIT · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

80K·4.34

C. Seymour

SP · SFG · AAA · 27 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

89K·4.12

K. Curtis

SP · PIT · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

118K·4.86

R. Snelling

SP · MIA · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

46K·2.38

D. Davalillo

SP · TEX · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

106K·4.62

M. Bratt

SP · ARI · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

90K·3.95

G. Wood

SP · PHI · AA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

'26

Szn

139K·4.36

E. Rodriguez

SP · NYY · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

126K·3.05

T. McDougal

SP · CHW · AAA · 23 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

51K·4.98

B. Garrett

SP · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

June 1st

Szn

114K·3.76

R. Ryan

SP · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

47K·4.39

C. Dana

SP · LAA · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

86K·5.52

R. Sloan

SP · SEA · AA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

128K·3.73

C. Lagrange

SP · NYY · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

July 1st

Szn

85K·4.48

C. Crow

SP · MIL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

106K·3.95

J. Wenninger

SP · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

123K·4.54

T. Gibson

SP · BAL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

107K·5.26

L. Braun

SP · ATL · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

112K·4.18

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

🔭 12 not a 2026 factor — Jackson Ferris · Anthony Eyanson · Jurrangelo Cijntje · Liam Doyle · Christian Zazueta · Jackson Wolf · Jaxon Wiggins · Bryce Mayer · David Hagaman · Jonathan Santucci · Joseph Dzierwa · Karson Milbrandt

💼 Trades

Buy-low targets · league trade history.

Top Buy-Lows

Rebound candidates · suggested offers.

Hitters

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Juan Soto RF · NYM · GARR · jregarris +1.2σ buy-low · RF — fits a need · BA 0.271 / xBA 0.294 · xwOBA 0.412	100%	158 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Kyle Schwarber DH · comparable value (TV 100 vs target 100)
📈 BUY-LOW	Cal Raleigh C · Sea · KNIG · TKHOO +1.7σ buy-low · C — modest fit · BA 0.182 / xBA 0.191 · xwOBA 0.313	85%	129 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Miguel Vargas 3B · comparable value (TV 77 vs target 82)
📈 BUY-LOW	JJ Bleday CF · Cin · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.2σ buy-low · CF — fits a need · BA 0.213 / xBA 0.238 · xwOBA 0.339	20%	100 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Cole Carrigg CF · comparable value (TV 12 vs target 17)
↑ mild buy	Taylor Ward LF · Sea · GoOs · My Best Guys +0.7σ buy-low · LF — fits a need · BA 0.222 / xBA 0.240 · xwOBA 0.333	56%	120 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Sandy Alcantara SP · comparable value (TV 58 vs target 60)
📈 BUY-LOW	Heriberto Hernandez LF · Mia · FRAN · francisw789 +1.1σ buy-low · LF — fits a need · BA 0.232 / xBA 0.247 · xwOBA 0.350	8%	99 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Henry Bolte RF + +$4 FAAB · comparable value (TV 15 vs target 23)
↑ mild buy	Ian Happ LF · ChC · FRAN · francisw789 +0.8σ buy-low · LF — fits a need · BA 0.219 / xBA 0.208 · xwOBA 0.317	69%	109 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 35 vs target 41)
↑ mild buy	Kyle Stowers LF · Mia · KNIG · TKHOO +0.7σ buy-low · LF — fits a need · BA 0.239 / xBA 0.224 · xwOBA 0.324	27%	111 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Jared Jones SP + +$4 FAAB · comparable value (TV 19 vs target 27)
↑ mild buy	Dominic Canzone RF · Sea · GARR · jregarris +0.5σ buy-low · RF — fits a need · BA 0.257 / xBA 0.268 · xwOBA 0.353	12%	114 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 35 vs target 34)
↑ mild buy	Jarren Duran LF · Bos · RAGE · glhoward40 +0.8σ buy-low · LF — fits a need · BA 0.204 / xBA 0.233 · xwOBA 0.297	65%	100 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Eury Perez SP + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 50 vs target 57)
↑ mild buy	Heliot Ramos LF · NYY · DORN · Lambertmt48 +0.6σ buy-low · LF — fits a need · BA 0.243 / xBA 0.256 · xwOBA 0.328	9%	104 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Cole Carrigg CF · comparable value (TV 12 vs target 17)

Pitchers

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Kodai Senga SP · NYM · KRTZ · FratSkins +1.1σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 7.05 vs xERA 5.16	11%	3.88 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Cole Carrigg CF · comparable value (TV 12 vs target 14)
↑ mild buy	Kade Anderson SP · Sea · RAGE · glhoward40 +0.7σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 5.33 vs xERA 4.24	17%	4.61 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Cole Carrigg CF · comparable value (TV 12 vs target 16)

League History

Completed trades · frozen grade at the deal + live grade now.

Side	Sent	At deal	Now	Trend
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Andy Pages	A- +7	A+ +46	▲ up
Camp MVP	Pete Crow-Armstrong	C -7	F -46	▼ down
Team Knighton ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Team Knighton	Matthew Boyd	F -22	F -23
Camp MVP	Kenley Jansen	A+ +22	A+ +23
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Worst2First 2026-08-10
Miz-waukee’s Best	Charlie Condon, Payton Tolle	A+ +50	A+ +32	▼ down
Worst2First	Dylan Cease	F -50	F -32	▲ up
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Dorn and Associates LLC 2026-08-05
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Travis Bazzana, George Lombard Jr., Nolan McLean	A+ +144	A+ +106	▼ down
Dorn and Associates LLC	Jackson Chourio, Jhoan Duran, Brice Turang, David Bednar	F -144	F -106	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-07-31
Miz-waukee’s Best	Samuel Basallo, Kade Anderson	A- +8	C -6	▼ down
Ramirez Against the Machine	Blake Snell	C -8	A- +6	▲ up
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Team Knighton 2026-07-23
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Jo Adell, Jacob deGrom	F -49	F -64	▼ down
Team Knighton	Trea Turner	A+ +49	A+ +64	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine ⇄ Miz-waukee’s Best 2026-07-19
Ramirez Against the Machine	Sandy Alcantara	F -42	F -29	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best	Josh Jung	A+ +42	A+ +29	▼ down
I need Buck Showalter ⇄ Hit the Damn Ball You Bums 2026-06-19
I need Buck Showalter	Nasim Nunez	A+ +28	A +11	▼ down
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Justin Wrobleski	F -28	D -11	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ The Boys of Summer 2026-06-12
Miz-waukee’s Best	Chandler Simpson	A +10	C -8	▼ down
The Boys of Summer	$30 FAAB	D -10	A- +8	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-05-01
Miz-waukee’s Best	Kenley Jansen	—	A- +7
Camp MVP	$30 FAAB	A- +3	C -7	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-04-22
Miz-waukee’s Best	Nathan Eovaldi, $70 FAAB	—	F -41
Ramirez Against the Machine	Jac Caglianone	A+ +60	A+ +41	▼ down

🔻 Sell-High — My Roster

Surface line outrunning the underlying skill — trade-value peaks. σ = his surface-stat z-score minus his Statcast-skill z-score, both against the league reference for his side — bigger σ = further ahead of the skill. Pair with Buy-Low Targets.

Verdict	Player	Own	Surface vs expected	Contact	2027 keeper
↓ SHOP	Cole Carrigg CF · Col 0.62σ sell-high · CF · BA 0.266 / xBA 0.246 · xwOBA 0.313 — test the market, don't force it	14%	BA 0.266 / xBA 0.246 +.020 wOBA 0.345 / xwOBA 0.313 +.032	HH 36.2% · Brl/PA 3.6%	25th · +5 rds vs mkt
↓ SHOP	Henry Bolte RF · Oak 0.53σ sell-high · RF · BA 0.275 / xBA 0.246 · xwOBA 0.318 — test the market, don't force it	12%	BA 0.275 / xBA 0.246 +.029 wOBA 0.339 / xwOBA 0.318 +.021	HH 47.8% · Brl/PA 4.9%	25th · +5 rds vs mkt
↓ SHOP	Yandy Diaz 1B · TB 0.53σ sell-high · 1B · BA 0.297 / xBA 0.284 · xwOBA 0.350 — test the market, don't force it	93%	BA 0.297 / xBA 0.284 +.013 wOBA 0.355 / xwOBA 0.350 +.005	HH 48.5% · Brl/PA 5.5%	7th · +1 rd vs mkt

👥 Your Roster

Your roster · news + buy/sell signals.

News (last 24h)

Player news · last 24h.

Walker Jenkins Angels walk off the Twins in extras
Fri 09-18 04:50 AM
Angels walk off the Twins in extras
Henry Bolte Fantasy baseball lineup advice for Friday: Give Seymour the nod vs. Red Sox
Thu 09-17 07:52 PM
Everything you need to know to set your fantasy baseball lineups for Thursday's MLB action.
Jacob Misiorowski 2026 MLB Awards Watch: MVP, Cy Young and more for September
Thu 09-17 02:55 PM
Last chance for the candidates to make their case for MLB's biggest postseason awards.

Leverage Buys/Sells

Buy/sell windows · surface vs. underlying.

Hitters

Player	Pos	MLB	BA	xBA	wOBA	xwOBA	Brl%	Own%	Signal
James Wood	LF	Wsh	0.265	0.274	0.389	0.412	100.0	99.0	📈 BUY-LOW
Kyle Schwarber	DH	Phi	0.236	0.239	0.371	0.365	98.0	99.5	📈 BUY-LOW
Miguel Vargas	3B	ChW	0.248	0.266	0.360	0.379	89.0	94.9	📈 BUY-LOW
Bryce Eldridge	1B	SF	0.269	0.260	0.361	0.359	75.0	14.2	↑ mild buy
Jac Caglianone	RF	KC	0.277	0.278	0.351	0.353	90.0	44.6	fair
Zach Neto	SS	LAA	0.241	0.215	0.335	0.311	75.0	61.2	fair
Randy Arozarena	LF	Sea	0.278	0.258	0.373	0.346	51.0	94.2	fair
Yandy Diaz	1B	TB	0.295	0.284	0.355	0.350	46.0	92.5	↓ mild fade
Cole Carrigg	CF	Col	0.266	0.246	0.345	0.313	27.0	14.2	↓ mild fade
Walker Jenkins	CF	Min	0.143	0.152	0.200	0.244	—	3.9	fair
Henry Bolte	RF	Oak	0.275	0.246	0.339	0.318	54.0	11.9	↓ mild fade
Kaelen Culpepper IL10	SS	Min	0.275	0.245	0.326	0.298	—	4.0	fair
Royce Lewis	3B	Min	0.226	0.239	0.297	0.311	73.0	11.9	↑ mild buy
Emmanuel Rodriguez	CF	Min	0.217	0.362	0.369	0.480	—	0.9	—
Leo Bernal	C	StL	0.295	0.303	0.360	0.378	—	3.9	fair
Victor Mesa Jr.	LF	TB	0.252	0.253	0.352	0.335	—	14.2	fair
Thomas Saggese	2B	StL	0.267	0.252	0.315	0.319	—	10.2	fair

Pitchers

Pitcher	Pos	MLB	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K-BB%	xwOBA-a	Brl%-a	Own%	Signal
Andres Munoz	RP	Sea	56.0	4.18	1.20	3.28	27.4	0.281	8.9	79.6	↑ mild buy
Jared Jones	SP	Pit	90.7	4.17	1.19	3.43	20.5	0.287	7.6	24.2	↑ mild buy
Blake Snell DTD	SP	LAD	38.7	1.86	1.09	2.15	22.9	0.228	1.1	84.9	↑ mild buy
Joe Ryan	SP	Min	133.7	4.24	1.17	3.66	20.7	0.296	10.2	86.9	fair
Jacob Misiorowski	SP	Mil	166.3	1.89	0.81	2.08	31.6	0.224	3.8	99.1	fair
Sandy Alcantara	SP	Mia	206.0	3.84	1.23	3.90	10.6	0.305	5.7	82.2	fair
Dylan Cease	SP	Tor	166.3	2.38	1.06	2.79	24.6	0.260	5.3	99.3	fair
Eury Perez	SP	Mia	144.3	3.99	1.24	4.10	15.1	0.312	10.2	68.0	fair
Louis Varland	RP	Tor	76.0	1.30	1.00	2.30	24.3	0.236	3.8	85.8	fair

📰 MLB News — Top Fantasy Stories

🔒 Keepers — 2027 Slate

Peter's model (additive): rounds-saved (cost arbitrage spine) + current skill + career-grade pedigree + sample stability + Statcast over/under-performance trend, with age-decline (33+), closer/RP, and top-30 talent adjustments. Heavy on bargain-hunting.
Claude's model (multiplicative dynasty index): EFV(2027) = (3 + skill + upside) × age_mult × pos_mult; score = EFV − cost_replacement − mookie-lock. Compounds age curve and position scarcity.
Sorted by consensus rank (average of both models). MLB-inactive players surfaced in 🚑 Return Watch below.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict	Notes
1.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	21st	#1 (+24.5)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51	UFDA-G FV 55
2.5	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	25th	#2 (+22.3)	#3 (+18.5)	S · $18	UFDA
2.5	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	22nd	#3 (+21.5)	#2 (+27.1)	S · $27
4.5	Bryce Eldridge	1B · 20yo	25th	#4 (+16.2)	#5 (+14.4)	A · $14	UFDA FV 55
5.0	Zach Neto	SS · 25yo	10th	#6 (+13.9)	#4 (+16.1)	A · $16
5.5	Henry Bolte	RF · 21yo	25th	#5 (+14.9)	#6 (+14.4)	A · $14	UFDA FV 40
7.0	Dylan Cease	SP · 30yo	4th	#7 (+12.0)	#7 (+11.7)	A · $12
8.0	Jac Caglianone	RF · 22yo	21st	#8 (+10.0)	#8 (+6.8)	B · $7	UFDA-G FV 55

NEW UFDA cap: Peter 3/3 · Claude 3/3 · BOTH = top 8 in both models. Peter only = his model values cost surplus more; Claude only = mine values projection / position scarcity more.

Updated Fri Sep 18 · 9:34 AM ET

🌍 League-Wide Top Keepers

Top 10 keepers · all 12 teams · both models. Yours in green.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	Team	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict
2.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	MIZ	21st	#3 (+24.5)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51
2.5	Jordan Walker	RF · 24yo	GARR	25th	#1 (+27.0)	#4 (+38.7)	S · $39
3.5	Bryan Baker	RP · 31yo	DORN	25th	#4 (+24.1)	#3 (+38.7)	S · $39
6.0	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	MIZ	22nd	#7 (+21.5)	#5 (+27.1)	S · $27
6.5	Payton Tolle	SP · 22yo	FRST	25th	#2 (+25.4)	— (+21.2)	S · $21
6.5	Cam Schlittler	SP · 24yo	KRTZ	19th	— (+19.7)	#2 (+40.8)	S · $41
8.0	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	MIZ	25th	#5 (+22.3)	— (+18.5)	S · $18
8.5	Logan Henderson	SP · 23yo	PEYT	25th	#6 (+21.9)	— (+17.1)	A · $17
8.5	Cade Cavalli	SP · 26yo	FRAN	21st	— (+18.6)	#6 (+26.1)	S · $26
9.0	Nolan McLean	SP · 23yo	DORN	20th	— (+17.8)	#7 (+24.0)	S · $24
9.5	Jake McCarthy	LF · 28yo	FRAN	25th	#8 (+21.0)	— (+19.8)	S · $20
9.5	Gavin Williams	SP · 26yo	THAR	11th	— (+13.9)	#8 (+23.6)	S · $24
10.0	Jose Soriano	SP · 27yo	BLOB	25th	#9 (+20.3)	— (+17.1)	A · $17
10.0	Junior Caminero	3B · 22yo	RAGE	5th	— (+12.3)	#9 (+23.3)	S · $23
10.5	Ben Rice	1B · 27yo	DORN	20th	#10 (+20.3)	— (+13.9)	A · $14
10.5	Parker Messick	SP · 24yo	GARR	18th	— (+16.4)	#10 (+23.0)	S · $23

Updated Fri Sep 18 · 9:34 AM ET

🏚️ Keeper Cupboards

Every team's six best keepers · shade = dual-model consensus value. Cupboard score weights the top four heavily (the slots that get kept), keepers 5–8 taper. 100 = league's best cupboard.

Team	K1	K2	K3	K4	K5	K6	Cupboard
1MIZ	MisiorowskiR21	VargasR25	VarlandR22	EldridgeR25	NetoR10	BolteR25	100
2DORN	BakerR25	RiceR20	McLeanR20	BazzanaR25	LaraR25	PerdomoR21	82
3FRAN	McCarthyR25	CavalliR21	LatzR25	AntonacciR25	LoweR8	BurnsR5	72
4KRTZ	SchlittlerR19	BengeR25	SanojaR25	StewartR10	McGonigleR17	MahleR23	66
5THAR	WilliamsR11	Jr.R16	MarshR25	RasmussenR8	O'BrienR17	KeaschallR21	62
6PEYT	HendersonR25	SanchezR9	WooR8	ClarkR22	CameronR18	CruzR1	59
7GARR	WalkerR25	MessickR18	GrayR7	CanzoneR25	DinglerR22	SimpsonR9	56
8KNIG	AbreuR15	deGromR13	MartinezR25	JensenR20	RodriguezR25	DuranR25	56
9GoOs	GriffinR25	BradleyR25	GoodmanR21	BurlesonR9	WachaR25	MeidrothR25	54
10BLOB	SorianoR25	LopezR20	ScottR25	SuarezR12	LileR15	SaleR1	51
11RAGE ▼ thin	EwingR25	CamineroR5	JonesR25	BasalloR19	ImanagaR9	HerreraR20	48
12FRST ▼ thin	TolleR25	WheelerR8	MuncyR18	SkubalR1	RumfieldR25	RogersR9	45

The bottom two rows are your trade marks — thin cupboards pay up for keepable pieces.

data: snap 2h · BP 24d · PL 24d · HL 21d · PSS 5h · BR 16h · FG 1h · proj 22h · closer 0h · oyster 1h · AAA-sc 11h · cookie ok