Miz-waukee’s Best — The Brandon League

Last updated Wednesday, September 02 · 10:21 AM ET

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Any player in the league universe · tap a result for the card.

☕ Morning Briefing

🏆 MIZ sits at 1st with 104.5 roto points, 22.5 clear of #2 — a comfortable cushion, though the lead dipped 0.5 pts since last update and two category-level fires need watching: Wins are dead-level with GoOs (one swing costs a roto point), and AVG trails GoOs by just 0.001 (one point available if you close it).

⚾ The bats came alive yesterday: Royce Lewis went 3-for-4 with a homer, 2R, and 3 RBI; Ryan Jeffers backed him up at 2-for-4 with a homer and 3 RBI — both vs. the Tigers — while Randy Arozarena went 1-for-5 with a homer and 3 RBI vs. Boston, and Yandy Diaz chipped in 2-for-4 with a homer, 2R, and a walk vs. the Mets. Four MIZ bats, four home runs.

📋 Jordan Lawlar (RI 90, owned by you) continued to produce, going 2-for-3 with a HR and RBI vs. Philadelphia — a nice reminder that your stash is paying off. Meanwhile, Justin Martinez (+1.1σ underlying skill) was cut from MIZ and is now a free agent if anyone in the league is paying attention. Make sure Eury Perez, Jacob Misiorowski, and Dylan Cease are active tonight — all three are slated to start.

📰 A few league-wide notes worth flagging: Gavin Williams struck out 13 Blue Jays across seven frames Tuesday and is now tied with Dylan Cease atop the AL strikeout leaderboard — Cease figures to reclaim the lead tonight. Robert Suarez (owned by FRST) was transferred to the 60-day IL with right elbow inflammation, a significant closer-role disruption to monitor for ratios and save-category ripple effects. Ronel Blanco was recalled by Houston and is available as a free agent if you need SP depth behind tonight's trio. Tommy White is day-to-day with a back injury — relevant if you're targeting Tigers' matchups this week.

ELIGIBILITYK. Schwarber 1B 6/10P. Ramirez 1B 4/10

Your standing

1stof 12

104.5 roto pts +22.5 clear of 2nd

-0.5 pts vs last update

Top Gaps

W (6.5) SB (7.0)

categories below mid-pack

Score change since last update

W -0.5

🎯 Category Pressure

Category ranks vs. the league.

Rank →

Δ to #1

935

1019

🥇

268

297

🥇

RBI

868

902

🥇

128

133

139

196

+63

AVG

.255

.256

.257

.259

+0.003

1164

1187

1322

+135

+13

+11

ERA

3.42

3.27

🥇

WHIP

1.17

1.12

🥇

📅 Yesterday's MIZ Box Scores (2026-09-01)

Loading box scores…

🏥 IL Rehab Tracker

IL players · rehab game logs.

Joe Ryan (SP) IL15 on rehab
AAA2026-09-01 · 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K, 0 BB

✅ Activated off the IL: James Wood (LF · 2026-09-02) — rehab done.

On the IL, no rehab games yet: Spencer Schwellenbach (IL60 · watch).

📊 League Activity (last 24h)

All adds, drops, and trades across the 12 teams.

Team	Move
Miz-waukee’s Best	+ Andrew Kittredge \| − Justin Martinez
Team Knighton	+ Abner Uribe
Dorn and Associates LLC	+ Brent Headrick
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	+ Ethan Salas \| − Alejandro Kirk

🏆 League Standings

Current roto points · 10,000-sim projected finish. FAAB = acquisition budget remaining.

100.0% to win the league · proj finish 1.0 · 102.5 roto pts

#	Team	Pts	FAAB	Win%	Proj Pts	Range	Proj Rk
1	MIZ Miz-waukee’s Best	104.5	$0	100.0%	102.5	99–105	1.0
2	FRAN Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	82.0	$74	0.0%	86.6	82–92	2.3
3	PEYT Phil Swift's Flex Seal	79.0	$29	0.0%	80.8	75–86	3.4
4	KRTZ Photogenic Nick Kurtz	79.0	$20	0.0%	81.9	76–88	3.2
5	GoOs I need Buck Showalter	69.0	$170	0.0%	69.7	64–75	5.3
6	BLOB Camp MVP	66.0	$168	0.0%	68.7	65–72	5.6
7	KNIG Team Knighton	64.5	$137	0.0%	58.6	54–63	7.4
8	THAR Phil Mickeltits	62.5	$176	0.0%	57.8	53–63	7.5
9	GARR The Boys of Summer	49.0	$155	0.0%	49.9	45–55	9.1
10	DORN Dorn and Associates LLC	45.0	$89	0.0%	46.5	42–51	9.8
11	RAGE Ramirez Against the Machine	40.5	$163	0.0%	35.8	32–40	11.9
12	FRST Worst2First	39.0	$154	0.0%	41.2	37–46	10.9

10,000 sims · fixed seed · noise CV talent 0.12 / idio 0.06 / team-cat 0.08 · assumes ATC rest-of-season rates

Your categories · projected roto points

R 12.0HR 12.0RBI 11.9SB 6.9AVG 9.3W 6.6SV 9.0K 10.8ERA 12.0WHIP 12.0

Winnable — push here: SB, AVG, W, SV.

🚨 Today's Streaming Board

153 of 200 GS · should be 173 · 20 behindBehind pace — stream aggressively

047 left · ~13.2/wk to cap · proj 177200

⏳ BP's post is late — Verdict pill is running on our score + Pitcher List for now (BP joins the top-2 once it posts).

Your starters + top FA streamers

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Eury Perez	@ KC	START	—	4.9	#5	Matchup is outright favorable; endorsement beyond tier norm.
Jacob Misiorowski	@ CHC	AUTO START	—	6.7	#1	Straightforward ace-tier endorsement.
Dylan Cease	@ CLE	AUTO START	—	7.6	#4	Straightforward ace-tier endorsement.
Jacob Lopez	@ TEX	START	—	5.4	#6	Hot streak continues with full confidence.
Andrew Painter	@ AZ	START	—	4.8	#7	Velo dipped but secondaries command remains elite.
Joey Cantillo	vs TOR	START	—	6.0	#10	Changeup command was horrendous last start; hesitation noted.
Hayden Wesneski	vs CWS	DART	—	5.1	#14	Elite sweeper with solid zone intent compensates modest stuff.
David Peterson	vs MIL	SIT	—	4.1	#15	Improved command and changeup usage on a good team.
Cody Bradford	vs ATH	SIT	—	3.3	#12	Pitch separation must return; weak opponent softens concern.
Dean Kremer	vs DET	SIT	—	3.3	#17	Cutter, splitter, four-seamer feel trending back upward.
Bubba Chandler	vs SF	SIT	—	4.0	#19	Elite pitch mix exists but consistent execution is missing.
Davis Martin	@ HOU	SITleash	—	4.1	#22	Extended leash granted; marginal win or QS ceiling.
Drew Anderson	@ MIN	SIT⚠ opener	—	3.9	#24	Flirting with five innings; split-change whiff upside only.

Openers filtered: Brad Lord, Taylor Clarke

Your staff: 3.27 ERA / 1.12 WHIP · GS 153/200 — Behind pace — stream aggressively. Verdict = the best 2 of BP · our score · Pitcher List, averaged (low outlier dropped); before BP posts it's our score + PL. ⚠ = our matchup score dissented — eyeball that one. Tap a MIZ score for the reasoning.

Tomorrow · 1 of yours + top 3 FA · Thu 9/3 · BP not out yet, so pill = our score + Pitcher List

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Sandy Alcantara	@ KC	START	—	5.6	#3	Dominant matchup, straightforward auto-start.
Blade Tidwell	@ PIT	SIT⚠ opener	—	4.2	#16	Avoid even in favorable Pittsburgh matchup.
Quinn Mathews	@ LAD	SIT	—	4.4	#17	Personal belief in arm overridden by bad matchup.
Luis Castillo	@ HOU	SIT	—	2.5	#15	Highly inconsistent; floor too low to trust.

Quinn Mathews@ LAD LHP4.4

LAD off .740 OPS · tough matchupskill 80 pctlL21: 5.52 ERA / 1.5 WHIPL14 contact +1.2 (.339 xwOBAcon-against, 35 BBE)~4.7 IP/startexp 4.59 ERA ↑ hurts (you 3.27)exp 1.53 WHIP ↑ hurts (you 1.12)GS 153/200 · Behind pace — stream aggressively

matchup

skill

form

win

park

📼 Streamer Report Card

Does the Streaming Board actually work? Every pick it showed, frozen at pick time and graded off the real box score. Two scoreboards below: first our own calls — the Verdict ladder and MIZ (our matchup score, 0–10) — then the outside lists behind them, BP (RelieverRecon's daily BP Streamers post) and PL (Pitcher List's tier ranking). Grades are recomputed from raw lines on every build — the rubric can change, the history follows.

Last 30d · 349 starts graded over 29 days · GOOD+ 49% · BLOWUP 17% · agg ERA 4.32 · WHIP 1.33 · 4.4 K/start · 379 picks logged, 14 never started, 16 awaiting a box score — not graded

Grade mix · all 349 graded starts

GEM 63 GOOD 108 OK 119 BLOWUP 59

GEM6+ IP, ≤1 ER · or 6+ IP, 8+ K, ≤2 ERGOODquality start (6+ IP, ≤3 ER) · or 5+ IP, ≤2 EROKheld the line without earning GOODBLOWUP5+ ER · or under 4 IP with 4+ ERGOOD+ = GEM + GOOD. A pick whose starter never took the ball grades to nothing and leaves every rate below.

Cohort	n	GOOD+	BLOWUP	ERA
Q1 — Do our own calls work? · Verdict ladder + MIZ bands · live board rows only, nothing backfilled
Verdict · AUTO START	24	71%	12%	3.42
Verdict · START	43	58%	9%	3.91
Verdict · DART	96	48%	14%	4.50
Verdict · SIT	186	45%	21%	4.45
MIZ ≥ 5.0	114	61%	13%	3.63
MIZ 3.5–4.9	134	46%	18%	4.72
MIZ < 3.5	84	39%	20%	4.83
All live board picks	349	49%	17%	4.32
Q1 read — GOOD+ falls 71% · 58% · 48% · 45% down the rungs, but BLOWUP does not rise with it, and MIZ sorts: GOOD+ falls 61% · 46% · 39% from the top band down.
Q2 — Which outside list earns the weight? · BP and PL graded on their own published lists · mostly rebuilt from git
PL · Auto Start	23	70%	13%	3.82
PL · Probably Start	38	55%	13%	4.17
PL · Questionable Start	94	53%	15%	4.25
PL · Do Not Start	168	45%	21%	4.46
BP · Auto	11	36%	9%	4.74
BP · Likely	39	46%	18%	4.43
All graded picks	349	49%	17%	4.32
Q2 read — against the 49% all-picks baseline, PL's top tiers clear it (70% · 55%) and BP's top tiers are too thin to call (36% · 46% on n=11 · n=39).

Rows are overlapping lenses on the same picks, not a partition — one start can be a PL Auto Start and a Verdict SIT at once, so they never sum to the headline; each group is read against its own baseline row.

⚠ Dissent check — the override is ahead so far — 62% GOOD+ on n=8. Splits are picks the board started over our MIZ sit-call (vs 49% for all live picks).

Calibration — do our numbers mean anything? · full season, 2026-06-29→2026-09-01 · 913 graded picks · MIZ on 374, BP on 230, Verdict on 394

The ladder above asks whether the tiers sort. This asks the harder question: is the number a probability — when the board says 7, do 70% of those starts come back GOOD+? Bins are equal-count and merge until every one clears n=15; the walk-forward rows are scored against a model that only ever saw earlier days.

Score bin	n	mean	GOOD+	95% CI
MIZ score → P(GOOD+) · our matchup score, 0–10 · live rows only · n=374
MIZ 0.5–3.3	87	2.6	41%	32%–52%
MIZ 3.4–3.9	67	3.7	43%	32%–55%
MIZ 4.0–4.7	70	4.3	46%	35%–57%
MIZ 4.8–5.5	78	5.1	58%	47%–68%
MIZ 5.6–8.9	72	6.4	64%	52%–74%
All MIZ-scored picks	374	—	50%	—
BP score → P(GOOD+) · RelieverRecon's published rating · includes git-backfilled rows · n=230
BP 4.6–6.6	48	6.1	35%	23%–50%
BP 6.7–7.3	44	7.0	52%	38%–66%
BP 7.4–7.7	47	7.5	45%	31%–59%
BP 7.8–8.4	47	8.1	47%	33%–61%
BP 8.5–10.0	44	9.1	43%	30%–58%
All BP-scored picks	230	—	44%	—
Verdict tier → P(GOOD+) · the consensus call itself · live rows only
AUTO START	27	—	70%	52%–84%
START	49	—	59%	45%–72%
DART	107	—	48%	38%–57%
SIT	211	—	46%	40%–53%

Out-of-sample	n	value	vs
Walk-forward probability · logistic on MIZ, refit daily on earlier days only · from 2026-08-05 · 27 days
Brier — our probability	310	0.246	lower is better
Brier — flat base rate to date	310	0.255	we win by 0.009
Brier — verdict-tier history	310	0.255	we win by 0.009
Log loss — our probability	310	0.686	lower is better
ECE — our probability	310	0.060	5 equal-count bins
ECE bins · predicted p vs what actually happened
said 32%–47%	62	40%	off by 3%
said 47%–51%	62	40%	off by 9%
said 52%–56%	62	40%	off by 14%
said 56%–60%	62	56%	off by 1%
said 60%–74%	62	61%	off by 3%
Verdict — usable with caveats: ECE 0.060 over n=310 out-of-sample picks (≤0.03 well calibrated · ≤0.07 usable with caveats); edges the flat base rate on Brier (0.246 vs 0.255, a thin margin; log-loss ~coin-flip).

🔥 Today's Hitter Streamers

Top 10 FA bats for today's slate · score = split vs SP hand (35%) + SP softness (35%) + bat quality (15%) + trailing 15 days (10%) + park (5%) · facing an elite arm fades the score hard (feast on weak pitchers).

#	Hitter	Matchup	Why	Legs	Score
1	AUTO STARTBlaze Alexander3B · 3% own	@ COL · Sugano RHP	szn .357 xwOBAusually bats 1st (×1.12)fills OF needbeats 10 of 11 eligible startersSugano .392 allowed · soft SP0.854 OPS vs RHP (149 AB)COL plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	90
2	AUTO STARTAndrew Vaughn1B · 4% own	@ CHC · Peterson LHP	szn .336 xwOBAL15: 0.850 OPS (36 PA)L14 contact -2.1 (.324 xwOBAcon, 24 BBE)usually bats 5thbeats 4 of 4 eligible startersPeterson .338 allowed · soft SP0.99 OPS vs LHP (96 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	75
3	AUTO STARTSamad Taylor2B · 1% own	@ CIN · Williamson LHP	szn .326 xwOBAusually bats 2nd (×1.10)fills OF needbeats 7 of 8 eligible startersWilliamson .389 allowed · soft SPCIN plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	74
4	AUTO STARTLars NootbaarLF · 3% own	vs PHI · Painter RHP	szn .344 xwOBAL15: 1.137 OPS (31 PA)L14 contact +6.0 (.503 xwOBAcon, 25 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)fills OF needbeats 5 of 6 eligible startersPainter .329 allowed · soft SP0.758 OPS vs RHP (185 AB)AZ plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	73
5	AUTO STARTTy France1B · 14% own	@ CIN · Williamson LHP	szn .330 xwOBAL15: 0.819 OPS (58 PA)L14 contact -1.0 (.347 xwOBAcon, 33 BBE)usually bats 4th (×1.05)beats 3 of 3 eligible startersWilliamson .389 allowed · soft SP0.792 OPS vs LHP (105 AB)CIN plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	72
6	AUTO STARTLuis Robert Jr.CF · 14% own	@ COL · Sugano RHP	szn .318 xwOBAL15: 1.022 OPS (40 PA)L14 contact +3.6 (.451 xwOBAcon, 22 BBE)usually bats 4th (×1.05)fills OF needbeats 4 of 6 eligible startersSugano .392 allowed · soft SP0.695 OPS vs RHP (137 AB)COL plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	71
7	AUTO STARTDylan BeaversLF · 2% own	@ COL · Sugano RHP	szn .306 xwOBAL15: 1.067 OPS (45 PA)L14 contact +1.0 (.392 xwOBAcon, 30 BBE)usually bats 6th (×0.98)fills OF needbeats 4 of 6 eligible startersSugano .392 allowed · soft SP0.748 OPS vs RHP (205 AB)COL plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	68
8	STARTDustin HarrisLF · 0% own	@ CIN · Williamson LHP	szn .335 xwOBAL14 contact -0.5 (.360 xwOBAcon, 16 BBE)usually bats 9th (×0.90)fills OF needbeats 3 of 6 eligible startersshort side vs LHP — 17% of ABWilliamson .389 allowed · soft SPCIN plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	61
9	STARTColton CowserCF · 2% own	@ COL · Sugano RHP	szn .323 xwOBAL15: 0.715 OPS (41 PA)L14 contact +2.9 (.434 xwOBAcon, 27 BBE)usually bats 8th (×0.93)fills OF needbeats 3 of 6 eligible startersSugano .392 allowed · soft SP0.717 OPS vs RHP (249 AB)COL plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	59
10	DEPTHJhonny PeredaC · 0% own	@ BOS · Sandoval LHP	szn .338 xwOBAusually bats 8th (×0.93)beats 0 of 2 eligible startersSandoval .344 allowed · soft SPBOS plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	58

Tiers vs YOUR lineup tonight — median starter 62, worst Zach Neto (18). AUTO START = beats the median eligible starter.

TBD starter = neutral SP + split legs until the probable posts (refresh upgrades it). Splits need 30+ AB vs that hand. IL bats are excluded; bats who rarely start against tonight's hand are dropped. Doubleheaders: legs average the ends he plays, and everyday bats get up to a ×1.50 volume boost. Lineup slot scales the score by expected PAs from the bat's usual spot (leadoff ×1.12 … 9-hole ×0.90, modal over the last ~10 played days) — his typical order, not today's card, since that posts after waivers run.

🎯 FA Hitters — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Kyle Schwarber

1Lars NootbaarLF · Ari · 2.9%HEATER

92/99 heat on 25 BBE trusted sample, scorching L7 production, AVG boost for MIZ's live rank-3 spot

Heat 92 · 25 BBE · ATC 67 PA · 2 HR · 1 SB · 0.245 · L7 0.429 · 2 HR · sim +0.0 pts

2Mickey Gasper

C · Bos · 7.8% · HEATER

91/99 heat on 23 BBE with elite xwOBAcon, 5 HR L14 — best contact-quality signal in pool despite catcher PT limits

Heat 91 · 23 BBE · ATC 28 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.225 · L7 0.25 · 2 HR · sim +0.0 pts

3Sean Murphy

C · Atl · 0.8% · HEATER

76/99 heat but .517 xwOBAcon, 2 HR last 7, scarce catcher HR/RBI adds real volume at deepest position

Heat 76 · 16 BBE · ATC 47 PA · 2 HR · 0 SB · 0.216 · L7 0.5 · 2 HR · sim +0.0 pts

4Xander Bogaerts

SS · SD · 18.6% · BEST VALUE

Best roto-sim delta (+0.2), highest ATC PA, 3 SB projected helps MIZ's only live category need

ATC 91 PA · 2 HR · 3 SB · 0.259 · L7 0.158 · 0 HR · sim +0.2 pts

5Ty France

1B · SD · 14.2% · FLOOR

Highest ATC PA of group, solid L7 production, wRC+ 106 projection, stable AVG won't hurt rank-3 hold

ATC 92 PA · 3 HR · 0 SB · 0.257 · L7 0.304 · 1 HR · sim +0.1 pts

Passed on: Luis Robert Jr. left off despite trusted 84/99 heat because only 62 projected PA and last-7 .125 BA undercut the contact-quality signal against deeper alternatives.

💪 Hitter List Rankings

PL Top 150 hitters · your bats + top FAs.

On Hitter List · 17 yours · 9 FAs

Rank	Hitter	MLB	Pos	Chg	AVG	xwOBA	HR	SB	RoS	Chu’s Take
16	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	DH	+3	.241	.363	40	3	127
18	Randy Arozarena	SEA	OF	-	.273	.347	22	20	123
21	Miguel Vargas	CHW	1B/3B	+19	.251	.389	29	13	113	Miguel Vargas has returned to the levels we saw early this summer and that really revs my engine. He’s one of those players who has shown…
36	Yandy Díaz	TB	1B	+3	.302	.355	21	3	123
46	Zach Neto	LAA	SS	+11	.238	.307	23	19	109	Zach Neto has been a monster over the last nine games, with 17 hits, 18 combined runs and RBI (a seven RBI night helps), and seven extra-…
59	Jac Caglianone	KC	1B/OF	+13	.283	.360	23	6	107	Jac Caglianone still hits a lot of grounders, but not quite as many as before (the rolling 15-game rate is a hair below 50%) and the stri…
72	Ty France	SD	1B	+12	.288	.330	19	1	106
77	Royce Lewis	MIN	1B/2B/3B	-15	.236	.318	14	14	103	Royce Lewis is streaky. We just gotta deal with that.
85	Cole Carrigg	COL	SS/OF	-22	.255	.317	6	8	68	The strikeouts have creeped up on Cole Carrigg , up to 32% over his last 11 games (which is, conveniently, exactly 50 plate appearances).…
106	Luis Robert Jr.	NYM	OF	+UR	.223	.318	10	2	95
109	Mickey Gasper	BOS	C	+UR	.279	.368	7	0	94	Mickey Gasper — Fantastic mustache, first of all. Second of all, the batted ball data suggests what’s happening of late is very real, tho…
115	Kaelen Culpepper	MIN	SS	+UR	.320	.327	3	0	91	Kaelen Culpepper — Culpepper puts a lot of balls in play and it’s working out so far. The BABIP Gods can be cruel, though. The 55 point g…
119	Rafael Flores Jr.	PIT	C/1B	+UR	.220	.341	7	0	83
135	Henry Bolte	ATH	OF	+UR	.268	.301	6	14	91	Henry Bolte is leading off again and should get some games in Sacramento soon, if you need a streamer.
143	Alejandro Kirk	TOR	C	+UR	.277	.307	8	1	110
145	Tyler Stephenson	CIN	C	-33	.251	.337	14	0	98
146	Ryan Jeffers	MIN	C	-29	.278	.360	13	1	118
148	Andruw Monasterio	BOS	2B/SS	-26	.248	.299	6	4	92
149	Dylan Crews	WSH	OF	-35	.218	.310	10	8	87
150	Luis Rengifo	SD	2B/3B/OF	-24	.240	.304	4	6	—
TS	Bryce Eldridge	SF	1B	—	.263	.356	15	1	99	Bryce Eldridge (1B, SFG) — Power prospects can often take a while to really shine.
TS	Jordan Lawlar	Ari	3B/OF	—	.288	.326	4	4	89	Jordan Lawlar (3B/OF, ARI) — I do not love that he’s sat against two of the three righties the D-Backs have faced, nor the strikeouts. He…
TS	Pedro Ramirez	ChC	2B/3B	—	.285	.305	4	7	91	Pedro Ramirez (2B/3B, CHC) — Hitting well when he plays, which is not very often.
TS	Walker Jenkins	Min	OF	—	.188	.279	1	1	92	Walker Jenkins (OF, MIN) — Jenkins will get the call today after a white-hot month in the triple-A. He’s worth a scoop in most leagues, E…
UR	James Wood	Wsh	OF	—	.265	.419	30	17	129	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Ralphy Velazquez	Cle	1B	—	—	—	—	—	84	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.

🔥 Heat Board

Hottest ACTIVE free-agent bats by contact quality, 8/19–9/1 · Heat = percentile vs all MLB bats over the same window (xwOBAcon 30 · EV 20 · Brl 20 · HH 15 · K 10 · BB 5) · min 15 BBE to qualify (smaller samples live in the HM rail) · IL excluded.

Lars Nootbaar

LF · Ari · 2.9% own · xwOBAcon .503 · EV 93.2 · Brl 20.0% · 25 BBE

▲ .090 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.231	6	27	29	2
L14	.321	3	10	5	0

Mickey Gasper

C · Bos · 7.8% own · xwOBAcon .567 · EV 90.6 · Brl 26.1% · 23 BBE

▲ .106 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.279	7	21	20	0
L14	.385	5	10	7	0

Ryan Vilade

RF · TB · 0.2% own · xwOBAcon .552 · EV 95.2 · Brl 13.3% · 15 BBE

▼ .012 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.262	11	39	25	3
L14	.250	0	2	1	0

Hao-Yu Lee

3B · Det · 1.3% own · xwOBAcon .457 · EV 94.8 · Brl 13.3% · 30 BBE

▼ .020 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.270	8	35	27	2
L14	.250	2	5	6	1

Luis Robert Jr.

CF · Bal · 14.4% own · xwOBAcon .451 · EV 91.9 · Brl 18.2% · 22 BBE

▲ .044 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.223	10	23	24	2
L14	.267	3	4	5	0

Elias Diaz

C · Tex · 0.1% own · xwOBAcon .401 · EV 93.3 · Brl 27.8% · 18 BBE

▲ .021 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.229	6	24	17	0
L14	.250	1	4	3	0

Brett Baty

3B · NYM · 2.6% own · xwOBAcon .476 · EV 90.9 · Brl 17.6% · 17 BBE

▲ .112 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.221	8	40	45	5
L14	.333	0	2	1	0

Sean Murphy

C · Atl · 0.8% own · xwOBAcon .517 · EV 89.1 · Brl 18.8% · 16 BBE

▲ .151 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.224	2	4	6	0
L14	.375	2	4	5	0

Michael Conforto

LF · ChC · 0.4% own · xwOBAcon .567 · EV 89.4 · Brl 12.5% · 16 BBE

▲ .115 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.235	13	37	29	1
L14	.350	3	7	4	0

Rafael Flores Jr.

1B · Pit · 2.8% own · xwOBAcon .483 · EV 91.4 · Brl 18.2% · 22 BBE

▼ .081 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.220	7	17	11	0
L14	.139	3	7	3	0

Honorable mention · hottest L7 (8/26–9/1), not yet on the board · tiny samples — peek, don't trust

TJ Friedl

CF · Cin

.658 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .333 L7

Amed Rosario

3B · NYY

.456 xwOBAcon

14 BBE · .400 L7

Thomas Saggese

2B · StL

.656 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .625 L7

Tyler Stephenson

C · Cin

.549 xwOBAcon

12 BBE · .389 L7

Hector Rodriguez

LF · Cin

.506 xwOBAcon

18 BBE · .346 L7

Brett Callahan

RF · Det

.440 xwOBAcon

10 BBE · .308 L7

🎯 FA Pitchers — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Kyle Harrison

1AJ Smith-ShawverSP · Atl · 2.0%BEST VALUE

Highest roto sim (+0.8), 78th-pct suppression on 45 BBE trusted sample, Atlanta rotation role confirmed

Supp 78 · 45 BBE · ATC 11.0 IP · 1 W · 11 K · 4.14 · 1.32 · sim +0.8 pts

2Jose Urquidy

SP · ChW · 0.7% · HEATER

95th-pct suppression on 41 trusted BBE; elite contact suppression leads all SPs despite minimal ATC projection

Supp 95 · 41 BBE · ATC 5.0 IP · 0 W · 4 K · 4.59 · 1.33 · sim +0.5 pts

3Juan Morillo

RP · Ari · 2.6% · CATEGORY FIT

Confirmed closer role, 91st-pct suppression, +0.5 sim; SV rank 3 with 13-point gap to #2 needs saves accumulation

Supp 91 · 14 BBE · ATC 8.0 IP · 0 W · 8 K · 3.83 · 1.35 · 1 SV · Closer · sim +0.5 pts

4Dylan Smith

RP · SF · 0.4% · CATEGORY FIT

Confirmed SF closer, 3 projected SV, +0.6 sim; saves play despite mediocre 37th-pct suppression on barely-trusted 15 BBE

Supp 37 · 15 BBE · ATC 9.0 IP · 0 W · 8 K · 3.97 · 1.33 · 3 SV · Closer · sim +0.6 pts

5Cody Bradford

SP · Tex · 1.9% · FLOOR

Best ATC WHIP (1.20) of all SPs; 67th-pct suppression on 44 trusted BBE protects ERA/WHIP leads

Supp 67 · 44 BBE · ATC 22.0 IP · 1 W · 18 K · 4.29 · 1.20 · PL #12 · sim +0.4 pts

Passed on: Andrew Painter (78th-pct suppression, #7 streamer rank) skipped because 32 BBE sample is borderline and 4.78 ATC ERA threatens MIZ's razor-thin ERA/WHIP lead over second place.

⚾ Pitcher List Rankings

PL Top 100 SP · your arms + top FAs.

On Pitcher List · 6 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Pitcher	MLB	Chg	ERA	xERA	K/9	RoS	Pollack’s Take
1	Jacob Misiorowski	MIL	-	1.73	2.01	13.2	3.32	Like a base set Charizard, Misiorowski’s not gonna stop being dope.
9	Blake Snell	LAD	+7	2.42	2.10	12.5	3.42	#HotSnellSummer is in full swing.
10	Dylan Cease	TOR	-1	2.33	2.66	13.0	3.45	Like a perfect burger without the condiments to hit all your macros, Cease gives you everything except for a stable WHIP due to his infla…
20	Kyle Harrison	MIL	+8	3.45	3.52	10.9	4.12	With a dominant outing, he muted our concerns, but Harrison’s still displaying decreased velocity and not commanding as well as he did in…
22	Eury Pérez	MIA	-4	3.44	3.71	9.8	3.87	Pérez has the stuff to be an ace, but there’s polishing to do in the command and game plan departments to unlock his full potential.
30	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	-4	3.46	3.63	6.6	4.19	Baseball’s premier innings eater hasn’t ruined his appetite.
38	Jacob Lopez	ATH	+6	4.82	3.40	8.7	4.63	It’s the 2025 hot streak all over again. Enjoy the ride, ya’ll!
39	Dustin May	MIL	-	4.69	4.21	8.5	4.09	May got Singled Out in a disastrous performance, but his stuff is still dope, and his new situation is ideal. Higher win chance, great de…
40	Walbert Ureña	LAA	-	2.85	3.40	8.8	4.54	Armed with upper-90s heaters and one of the best changeups in baseball, Ureña has hit few speed bumps. If that developing sweeper becomes…
43	Andrew Painter	PHI	+UR	5.95	4.60	7.8	4.78	From off The List to inside the Top 50, Painter has stolen our hearts with an improved heater (97+ mph with 17-18″ iVB) and emphasis on r…
45	Peter Lambert	HOU	-4	3.66	3.60	8.9	4.58	Lambert’s stumble last time was a product of being Singled Out . He’s been reliable all year, but we should be recognizing that Holly is …
46	Jared Jones	PIT	-8	4.83	3.84	10.3	3.99	The stuff is top-tier, but he’s still shaking off the Tommy John surgery rust with his command and the tight leash the Pirates have on hi…
54	Joey Cantillo	CLE	-8	3.70	4.01	9.6	4.05	Efficiency is a problem, but Cantillo is doing everything we want. More curveballs, faster fastballs, and supportive cutters. Throw more …
56	Shane Bieber	TOR	+14	4.37	5.95	7.1	4.19	Bieber is back in business. His heater looked awesome in The Trop, and his offspeed pitches are being the CSW monsters they need to be to…
58	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	-	3.49	3.76	5.9	4.60	Despite what the line suggests, Pfaadt’s last start wasn’t an end to his Vargas Rule . It was a textbook Careful, Icarus with a three-run…
59	Christian Scott	NYM	+1	3.80	4.04	10.7	3.94	Scott has been happy to show us his floor, but the stuff is still there to propel him up The List at a moment’s notice. It’s felt a littl…

🔒 Closer Chart

Save targets · roles + regression flags.

BLUEEntrenched closer (highest leverage)GREENNext man up / committee pieceYELLOWSetup, 8th-inning leverageORANGESpeculative / lower priorityMAGENTAHigh-upside future / multi-inning

	Pitcher	Tm	Role	SV	SVHD	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K/9	Rtg / Own
Yours on the chart
	Andrés Muñoz b2b	Seattle Mariners	CL	24	24	50.3	4.29	1.19	3.27 ↓	14.5	5.0 · —
—	Louis Varland	Toronto Blue Jays	CL	31	36	68.7	1.18	0.98	2.19 ↑	11.0	5.0 · —
—	Andrew Kittredge	Baltimore Orioles	CL	9	18	43.3	3.12	1.36	3.98	7.5	4.0 · —
Top 5 FA closers (by team rating)
	Juan Morillo	Arizona Diamondbacks	CL	2	19	54.3	2.15	1.05	2.32	10.3	1.0 · 3%
	Michael Petersen	Miami Marlins	CL	1	23	56.3	3.36	1.15	3.42	10.5	1.0 · 2%
	Dylan Smith	San Francisco Giants	CL	3	10	30.7	3.23	1.34	3.68	11.4	1.0 · 0%
	Orlando Ribalta	Washington Nationals	CL	2	14	43.0	3.77	1.21	3.65	8.8	1.0 · 0%

ERA cell: green <3.00 · red >4.50. xERA arrow: ↓ ERA likely to fall (buy) · ↑ ERA likely to rise (sell). Triggers when |xERA−ERA| ≥ 1.00.

✂️ Cut List

Drop priority · value, form, pedigree, role.

50	Royce Lewis 3B · Min low TV (18) sim cost ~0	TV 18 Rd 13
47	Andrew Kittredge RP · Bal low TV (0); UFDA — easy to drop; BUT closer-chart shield sim cost ~0	TV 0 UFDA
18	Kyle Harrison SP · Mil mid TV (59); cold last 7d; UFDA — easy to drop; BUT top-tier keeper sim cost ~0	TV 59 UFDA
15	Blake Snell SP · LAD BUT strong RoS (3.42 ERA) sim cost ~0	TV 80 Rd 8
13	Ryan Jeffers C · Min mid TV (37); BUT top-tier keeper; BUT young breakout signal sim cost ~0	TV 37 UFDA

Higher score = drop sooner — top 5 by score, and only 8+ reaches the board, so the number has no ceiling and is only comparable within this list. The sim line is a roto-sim marginal (cut vs. keep on one shared set of draws), not a measured cost. Pedigree + named closers shielded.

🌱 Stash List

PL's top prospects · grab them cheap.

Hitters

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 23: Top 10 Hitting Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + PSS + PFV + age + 40-man + path.

21 available — 2 yours

W. Jenkins YOURS

OF · MIN · AAA · 21 · ↗ called up

100

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

15·18·.315

R. Velazquez YOURS

1B/C · CLE · AA · 20 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

28·2·.296

Y. Morales

3B · WSN · AAA · 24 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

26·6·.290

S. Thompson

OF · COL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

12·16·.298

J. Tibbs III

OF · LAD · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

27·8·.295

M. Anderson

2B · DET · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

16·5·.309

B. Davidson

OF · SFG · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

September

Szn

26·19·.279

S. Walcott

3B/SS · TEX · AA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

7·8·.319

J. Melton

OF · TB · AAA · 25 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

7·26·.283

S. King

SS/2B/3B · WSN · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

19·14·.315

C. Ingle

C · CLE · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

18·2·.284

Z. Hope

OF · DET · AA · 21 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

27·23·.283

R. Ward

LF · LAD · AAA · 28 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

20·7·.250

J. Made

SS · MIL · AA · 19 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

13·35·.268

P. Harber

3B · SFG · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

'27

Szn

17·4·.279

H. Mendez

OF · MIN · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

12·4·.279

J. Long

1B · CHC · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

13·3·.275

K. Alderman

OF · MIA · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

18·10·.257

C. Cannarella

OF · MIA · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

13·21·.330

M. Arroyo

SS · SEA · AAA · 21 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

18·16·.280

D. Crisantes

2B/3B · ARI · AAA · 21 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

blocked

Szn

9·0·.293

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

Pitchers

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 23: Top 10 Pitching Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + L3 quality + FV + age + 40-man + path.

27 available

L. Perales

SP · WSN · AAA · 23 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

102K·4.17

T. McDougal

SP · CHW · AAA · 23 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

47K·4.75

H. Smith

SP · CHW · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

August 1st

Szn

103K·3.76

B. Mautz

SP · STL · AAA · 24 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

99K·4.12

C. Seymour

SP · SFG · AAA · 27 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

86K·3.92

R. Snelling

SP · MIA · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

46K·2.38

R. Sloan

SP · nearly ready

PSS

100

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

117K·3.50

J. Tong

SP · NYM · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

133K·4.46

T. Bremner

SP · LAA · AA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

92K·4.08

T. Johnson

SP · TBR · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

84K·2.80

O. Murphy

SP · ATL · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

122K·3.74

M. Bratt

SP · ARI · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

81K·3.46

M. Forret

SP · BAL · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

121K·3.83

C. Crow

SP · MIL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

97K·3.82

A. Kelly

SP · PIT · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

71K·4.55

J. Ritchie

SP · ATL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

118K·3.88

B. Garrett

SP · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

June 1st

Szn

105K·3.95

D. Davalillo

SP · TEX · AAA · 24 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

94K·5.15

C. Dana

SP · LAA · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

80K·5.53

J. Wenninger

SP · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

110K·4.23

M. Ullola

SP · HOU · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

97K·4.29

T. Gibson

SP · BAL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

98K·4.98

B. Hopkins

SP · TBR · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

115K·5.40

D. Sandlin

SP · CHW · MLB · 25 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

88K·3.46

K. Curtis

SP · PIT · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

113K·4.48

G. Wood

SP · PHI · AA · 22 · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

124K·4.40

L. Braun

SP · ATL · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

104K·3.64

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

🔭 12 not a 2026 factor — Bryce Mayer · Liam Doyle · Anthony Eyanson · Jamie Arnold · Joseph Dzierwa · Daniel Eagen · Christian Zazueta · Jaxon Wiggins · Tyson Hardin · Jonathan Santucci · Jurrangelo Cijntje · Karson Milbrandt

💼 Trades

Buy-low targets · league trade history.

Top Buy-Lows

Rebound candidates · suggested offers.

Hitters

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Trent Grisham CF · NYY · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.3σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.209 / xBA 0.243 · xwOBA 0.335	28%	114 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Royce Lewis 3B · comparable value (TV 18 vs target 18)
📈 BUY-LOW	Juan Soto RF · NYM · GARR · jregarris +1.2σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.279 / xBA 0.296 · xwOBA 0.421	100%	159 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Kyle Schwarber DH · comparable value (TV 100 vs target 100)
📈 BUY-LOW	JJ Bleday CF · Cin · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.3σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.217 / xBA 0.244 · xwOBA 0.347	23%	104 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 25 vs target 27)
📈 BUY-LOW	Heriberto Hernandez LF · Mia · FRAN · francisw789 +1.3σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.229 / xBA 0.247 · xwOBA 0.352	12%	98 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Henry Bolte RF + Bryce Eldridge 1B · two-piece package (TV 28 vs target 33)
📈 BUY-LOW	Ronald Acuna Jr. RF · Atl · GoOs · My Best Guys +1.1σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.238 / xBA 0.251 · xwOBA 0.358	98%	136 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Blake Snell SP · comparable value (TV 80 vs target 86)
↑ mild buy	Taylor Ward LF · Sea · GoOs · My Best Guys +0.7σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.229 / xBA 0.243 · xwOBA 0.337	59%	118 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Kyle Harrison SP · comparable value (TV 59 vs target 60)
↑ mild buy	Dominic Canzone RF · Sea · GARR · jregarris +0.7σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.255 / xBA 0.269 · xwOBA 0.356	12%	114 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Henry Bolte RF + Bryce Eldridge 1B + +$3 FAAB · two-piece package (TV 28 vs target 34)
↑ mild buy	Kyle Stowers LF · Mia · KNIG · TKHOO +0.7σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.245 / xBA 0.233 · xwOBA 0.331	27%	111 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 25 vs target 27)
📈 BUY-LOW	Corey Seager SS · Tex · PEYT · simplejack2k9 +1.4σ buy-low · SS — modest fit · BA 0.226 / xBA 0.248 · xwOBA 0.352	59%	130 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Jac Caglianone RF + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 52 vs target 58)
↑ mild buy	Jarren Duran LF · Bos · RAGE · glhoward40 +0.8σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.207 / xBA 0.237 · xwOBA 0.300	68%	101 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Jac Caglianone RF · comparable value (TV 52 vs target 57)

Pitchers

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Kodai Senga SP · NYM · KRTZ · FratSkins +1.2σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 7.36 vs xERA 5.09	10%	3.96 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Ralphy Velazquez 1B · comparable value (TV 2 vs target 4)
📈 BUY-LOW	Kade Anderson SP · Sea · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.5σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.50 vs xERA 2.28	27%	4.62 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B + +$4 FAAB · comparable value (TV 25 vs target 32)
↑ mild buy	Bryce Miller SP · Sea · BLOB · crenshawh19 +0.6σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.12 vs xERA 3.18	32%	4.10 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Jac Caglianone RF · comparable value (TV 52 vs target 48)
↑ mild buy	Freddy Peralta SP · TB · KNIG · TKHOO +0.7σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.96 vs xERA 3.90	74%	4.01 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Jac Caglianone RF + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 52 vs target 58)

League History

Completed trades · frozen grade at the deal + live grade now.

Side	Sent	At deal	Now	Trend
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Andy Pages	A- +7	A+ +45	▲ up
Camp MVP	Pete Crow-Armstrong	C -7	F -45	▼ down
Team Knighton ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Team Knighton	Matthew Boyd	F -22	F -23
Camp MVP	Kenley Jansen	A+ +22	A+ +23
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Worst2First 2026-08-10
Miz-waukee’s Best	Charlie Condon, Payton Tolle	A+ +50	A+ +33	▼ down
Worst2First	Dylan Cease	F -50	F -33	▲ up
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Dorn and Associates LLC 2026-08-05
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Travis Bazzana, George Lombard Jr., Nolan McLean	A+ +144	A+ +106	▼ down
Dorn and Associates LLC	Jackson Chourio, Jhoan Duran, Brice Turang, David Bednar	F -144	F -106	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-07-31
Miz-waukee’s Best	Samuel Basallo, Kade Anderson	A- +8	A+ +17	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine	Blake Snell	C -8	F -17	▼ down
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Team Knighton 2026-07-23
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Jo Adell, Jacob deGrom	F -49	F -63	▼ down
Team Knighton	Trea Turner	A+ +49	A+ +63	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine ⇄ Miz-waukee’s Best 2026-07-19
Ramirez Against the Machine	Sandy Alcantara	F -42	F -68	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best	Josh Jung	A+ +42	A+ +68	▲ up
I need Buck Showalter ⇄ Hit the Damn Ball You Bums 2026-06-19
I need Buck Showalter	Nasim Nunez	A+ +28	A+ +26
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Justin Wrobleski	F -28	F -26
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ The Boys of Summer 2026-06-12
Miz-waukee’s Best	Chandler Simpson	A +10	A- +7	▼ down
The Boys of Summer	$30 FAAB	D -10	C -7	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-05-01
Miz-waukee’s Best	Kenley Jansen	—	A- +7
Camp MVP	$30 FAAB	A- +3	C -7	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-04-22
Miz-waukee’s Best	Nathan Eovaldi, $70 FAAB	—	F -15
Ramirez Against the Machine	Jac Caglianone	A+ +60	A+ +15	▼ down

🔻 Sell-High — My Roster

Surface line outrunning the underlying skill — trade-value peaks. σ = his surface-stat z-score minus his Statcast-skill z-score, both against the league reference for his side — bigger σ = further ahead of the skill. Pair with Buy-Low Targets.

Verdict	Player	Own	Surface vs expected	Contact	2027 keeper
↓ SHOP	Henry Bolte RF · Oak 0.67σ sell-high · RF · BA 0.268 / xBA 0.241 · xwOBA 0.301 — test the market, don't force it	4%	BA 0.268 / xBA 0.241 +.027 wOBA 0.319 / xwOBA 0.301 +.018	HH 47.6% · Brl/PA 4.1%	25th · +2 rds vs mkt
↓ SHOP	Yandy Diaz 1B · TB 0.55σ sell-high · 1B · BA 0.302 / xBA 0.285 · xwOBA 0.355 — test the market, don't force it	93%	BA 0.302 / xBA 0.285 +.017 wOBA 0.364 / xwOBA 0.355 +.009	HH 48.0% · Brl/PA 5.6%	7th · +1 rd vs mkt
↓ SHOP	Andrew Kittredge RP · Bal 0.43σ sell-high · RP · ERA 3.12 vs xERA 3.98 — test the market, don't force it	3%	ERA 3.12 / xERA 3.98 -0.86	Brl 5.5% allowed	25th · +2 rds vs mkt
HOLD — KEEPER PRICE	Louis Varland RP · Tor 0.42σ sell-high · RP · ERA 1.18 vs xERA 2.19 — only move for keeper-grade return	87%	ERA 1.18 / xERA 2.19 -1.01	Brl 4.2% allowed	22nd · +16 rds vs mkt

👥 Your Roster

Your roster · news + buy/sell signals.

News (last 24h)

Player news · last 24h.

James Wood Fantasy baseball news and notes: Reinforcements on the way for Rays, White Sox and others
Wed 09-02 11:54 AM
All of the important fantasy spin and actionable takeaways resulting from the latest baseball news.
Royce Lewis Twins hang 10 runs on Tigers to blow it open in sixth inning
Wed 09-02 05:14 AM
Twins hang 10 runs on Tigers to blow it open in sixth inning
Jordan Lawlar Jordan Lawlar crushes a home run
Wed 09-02 04:33 AM
Jordan Lawlar crushes a home run
Royce Lewis Twins hang 10 runs on the Tigers in the 6th inning of a 15-2 win as Lewis, Jeffers hit 3-run homers
Wed 09-02 03:03 AM
— Royce Lewis and Ryan Jeffers hit three-run homers during a 10-run sixth inning for the Minnesota Twins to highlight a 15-2 victory over the skidding
Randy Arozarena Lazaro Montes has memorable debut with homer, 2 RBIs as Mariners end skid with 9-6 win over Red Sox
Wed 09-02 02:53 AM
— Lazaro Montes homered in his big league debut, Randy Arozarena hit a three-run homer and Seattle ended a five-game skid with a 9-6 win over the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday night.
Yandy Diaz Freddy Peralta stymies former team and Yandy Díaz powers AL-best Rays to 6-2 win over Mets
Wed 09-02 01:49 AM
— Freddy Peralta pitched six terrific innings against his former team, Yandy Díaz homered and doubled, and the Tampa Bay Rays beat the New York Mets 6-2 on Tuesday night.

Leverage Buys/Sells

Buy/sell windows · surface vs. underlying.

Hitters

Player	Pos	MLB	BA	xBA	wOBA	xwOBA	Brl%	Own%	Signal
James Wood IL10	LF	Wsh	0.265	0.275	0.395	0.419	100.0	99.0	📈 BUY-LOW
Miguel Vargas	3B	ChW	0.251	0.270	0.369	0.389	92.0	95.2	📈 BUY-LOW
Kyle Schwarber	DH	Phi	0.241	0.237	0.375	0.363	98.0	99.5	📈 BUY-LOW
Bryce Eldridge	1B	SF	0.263	0.256	0.353	0.356	78.0	9.7	↑ mild buy
Jac Caglianone	RF	KC	0.283	0.282	0.357	0.360	93.0	61.5	fair
Zach Neto	SS	LAA	0.238	0.209	0.330	0.307	76.0	62.1	fair
Yandy Diaz	1B	TB	0.302	0.285	0.364	0.355	49.0	92.7	↓ mild fade
Cole Carrigg	CF	Col	0.255	0.250	0.333	0.317	—	12.3	fair
Ryan Jeffers	C	Min	0.278	0.256	0.385	0.360	76.0	40.3	fair
Randy Arozarena	LF	Sea	0.273	0.259	0.368	0.347	54.0	93.8	fair
Henry Bolte	RF	Oak	0.268	0.241	0.319	0.301	39.0	3.8	↓ mild fade
Kaelen Culpepper	SS	Min	0.320	0.265	0.377	0.327	—	7.2	fair
Royce Lewis	3B	Min	0.236	0.244	0.311	0.318	75.0	14.8	↑ mild buy
Walker Jenkins	CF	Min	0.188	0.174	0.332	0.279	—	9.5	—
Jordan Lawlar	3B	Ari	0.288	0.265	0.368	0.326	—	2.9	fair
Ralphy Velazquez	1B	Cle	—	—	—	—	—	0.8	—
Pedro Ramirez DTD	3B	ChC	0.285	0.264	0.340	0.305	—	4.9	fair

Pitchers

Pitcher	Pos	MLB	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K-BB%	xwOBA-a	Brl%-a	Own%	Signal
Blake Snell	SP	LAD	26.0	2.42	1.08	2.10	22.0	0.225	1.7	89.3	↑ mild buy
Andres Munoz	RP	Sea	50.3	4.29	1.19	3.27	28.9	0.281	9.2	79.8	↑ mild buy
Joe Ryan IL15	SP	Min	125.7	4.08	1.15	3.50	21.2	0.290	10.5	89.5	fair
Jacob Misiorowski	SP	Mil	151.0	1.73	0.75	2.01	32.7	0.220	3.6	99.5	fair
Dylan Cease	SP	Tor	150.3	2.33	1.05	2.66	25.3	0.254	5.1	99.3	fair
Sandy Alcantara	SP	Mia	189.7	3.46	1.19	3.63	11.5	0.295	5.1	90.9	fair
Kyle Harrison	SP	Mil	107.0	3.45	1.20	3.52	22.6	0.291	7.7	71.0	fair
Eury Perez	SP	Mia	130.7	3.44	1.13	3.71	16.2	0.298	9.3	81.6	fair
Louis Varland	RP	Tor	68.7	1.18	0.98	2.19	24.7	0.230	4.2	86.5	↓ mild fade
Andrew Kittredge	RP	Bal	43.3	3.12	1.36	3.98	13.0	0.308	5.5	3.3	↓ mild fade

📰 MLB News — Top Fantasy Stories

🔒 Keepers — 2027 Slate

Peter's model (additive): rounds-saved (cost arbitrage spine) + current skill + career-grade pedigree + sample stability + Statcast over/under-performance trend, with age-decline (33+), closer/RP, and top-30 talent adjustments. Heavy on bargain-hunting.
Claude's model (multiplicative dynasty index): EFV(2027) = (3 + skill + upside) × age_mult × pos_mult; score = EFV − cost_replacement − mookie-lock. Compounds age curve and position scarcity.
Sorted by consensus rank (average of both models). MLB-inactive players surfaced in 🚑 Return Watch below.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict	Notes
1.0	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	22nd	#1 (+21.4)	#1 (+27.1)	S · $27
2.0	Sandy Alcantara	SP · 30yo	12th	#2 (+13.7)	#2 (+24.9)	S · $25
3.0	Dylan Cease	SP · 30yo	4th	#3 (+13.0)	#3 (+17.5)	A · $17
4.0	Blake Snell	SP · 33yo	6th	#4 (+11.8)	#4 (+10.7)	A · $11
5.0	Andrew Kittredge	RP · 36yo	25th	#5 (+1.1)	#5 (+2.4)	C · $2	UFDA

NEW UFDA cap: Peter 1/3 · Claude 1/3 · BOTH = top 8 in both models. Peter only = his model values cost surplus more; Claude only = mine values projection / position scarcity more.

🚑 Return watch — would be keeper-eligible if they get MLB action this year. Rank shown is hypothetical (where they'd slot if eligible).

Player	Pos · Age	Cost	Peter (if elig.)	Claude (if elig.)
Walker Jenkins	CF · 20yo	25th	#6 (+0.0)	#6 (+2.3)
Ralphy Velazquez	1B · 19yo	25th	#6 (-2.0)	#6 (+1.4)

Updated Wed Sep 2 · 10:21 AM ET

🌍 League-Wide Top Keepers

Top 10 keepers · all 12 teams · both models. Yours in green.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	Team	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict
1.0	Jesus Luzardo	SP · 28yo	KNIG	21st	#1 (+29.9)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51
2.5	Jose Soriano	SP · 27yo	BLOB	25th	#2 (+28.3)	#3 (+47.4)	S · $47
6.0	Nolan McLean	SP · 23yo	DORN	20th	#8 (+23.4)	#4 (+41.5)	S · $41
6.5	Bryan Baker	RP · 31yo	DORN	25th	#6 (+25.1)	#7 (+38.7)	S · $39
6.5	Sean Burke	SP · 25yo	KRTZ	25th	#7 (+24.7)	#6 (+38.7)	S · $39
6.5	Cam Schlittler	SP · 24yo	KRTZ	19th	— (+20.5)	#2 (+49.5)	S · $50
7.0	Nick Martinez	SP · 35yo	KNIG	25th	#3 (+26.7)	— (+27.1)	S · $27
7.0	Parker Messick	SP · 24yo	GARR	18th	#9 (+23.2)	#5 (+40.5)	S · $40
7.5	Michael Wacha	SP · 34yo	GoOs	25th	#4 (+25.7)	— (+25.4)	S · $25
8.0	Taj Bradley	SP · 25yo	GoOs	25th	#5 (+25.2)	— (+29.9)	S · $30
9.5	Kyle Bradish	SP · 29yo	FRAN	21st	#10 (+22.5)	#9 (+33.4)	S · $33
9.5	Drew Rasmussen	SP · 30yo	THAR	8th	— (+14.7)	#8 (+34.7)	S · $35
10.5	Gavin Williams	SP · 26yo	THAR	11th	— (+13.0)	#10 (+32.4)	S · $32

Updated Wed Sep 2 · 10:21 AM ET

🏚️ Keeper Cupboards

Every team's six best keepers · shade = dual-model consensus value. Cupboard score weights the top four heavily (the slots that get kept), keepers 5–8 taper. 100 = league's best cupboard.

Team	K1	K2	K3	K4	K5	K6	Cupboard
1DORN	BakerR25	McLeanR20	WarrenR25	KingR6			100
2KNIG	LuzardoR21	MartinezR25	deGromR13	RomanoR25	ChapmanR11	JansenR10	91
3BLOB	SorianoR25	SuarezR12	ScottR25	BoydR11	RayR10	SaleR1	86
4KRTZ	BurkeR25	SchlittlerR19	ColeR11	WebbR25	BednarR4	JoyceR25	81
5THAR	RasmussenR8	WilliamsR11	BazR13	O'BrienR17	SkenesR1		76
6MIZ	VarlandR22	AlcantaraR12	CeaseR4	SnellR6	KittredgeR25		70
7PEYT	SanchezR9	NolaR16	WooR8	RodonR14	HaderR7	PaganR6	69
8GoOs	WachaR25	BradleyR25	GomezR25	MegillR6	IglesiasR5		62
9RAGE	BibeeR14	ImanagaR9	CamineroR5	GausmanR4			57
10FRAN	BradishR21	LatzR25	HarrisR25	MontgomeryR25	CruzR25		54
11FRST ▼ thin	WheelerR8	RogersR9	SkubalR1				40
12GARR ▼ thin	MessickR18						30

The bottom two rows are your trade marks — thin cupboards pay up for keepable pieces.

data: snap 2h · BP 8d · PL 8d · HL 5d · PSS 6h · BR 0h · FG 0h · proj 0h · closer 0h · oyster 3h · AAA-sc 11h · cookie ok