Miz-waukee’s Best — The Brandon League

Last updated Thursday, August 27 · 09:34 AM ET

☕ Morning Briefing

🏆 MIZ sits comfortably at 1st with 106.0 roto points, 22 clear of 2nd — but AVG is razor-thin (0.001 behind THAR), so every at-bat counts. Yesterday's lineup did its part: Kyle Schwarber (2-5, 2R, 1 HR, 3 RBI), Cole Carrigg (2-6, 2R, 1 HR, 2 RBI), Jordan Lawlar (2-3, 1R, 1 HR, 1 RBI), and Kaelen Culpepper (1-3, 1R, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB) all went deep, while Louis Varland locked down a save with 1.1 clean innings. Four MIZ bats homering on the same day is a serious power day — and every one of those runs helps protect the AVG cushion by keeping counting-stat pressure off.

🌱 Walker Jenkins (RI 100, Pipeline #15) continued his strong AAA showing, going 2-for-4 with a HR, RBI, and SB at AAA vs Toledo — that steal is exactly what MIZ needs to chip away at the 6-SB gap to THAR. Meanwhile, free-agent prospect Hector Rodriguez (RI 87) had a monster MLB outing — 3-for-6, 2 HR, 2 RBI @ San Francisco — and Max Anderson (RI 88, on your stash board) went 2-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI at AAA vs St. Paul; both remain available.

📰 A couple of league-wide developments worth tracking: the SF Giants rotation is in freefall after losing both Carson Whisenhunt (elbow, likely TJ surgery, 60-day IL) and Adrian Houser (forearm strain, 15-day IL) in two days, leaving their pen and rotation extremely thin — relevant context given Hector Rodriguez just torched them. Tyler O'Neill is headed back to the IL with a right rotator cuff strain, a significant blow for any manager rostering him. On the waiver wire, Eugenio Suárez and TJ Friedl were placed on waivers by Cincinnati, with a claim decision due today — Suárez is slugging .500 with 5 HR in August but comes with a $2.5M price tag for the remainder of the season. Finally, Byron Buxton exited Wednesday's game with hip discomfort and could be IL-bound for a third time since early July, a big blow to any team counting on him.
ELIGIBILITYC. Carrigg SS 9/10A. Genao 2B 8/10A. Genao 3B 7/10K. Schwarber 1B 6/10
Your standing
1stof 12
106.0 roto pts +22.0 clear of 2nd
no change vs last update
Top Gaps
SB (7.0) W (8.0)
categories below mid-pack

🎯 Category Pressure

Category ranks vs. the league.

Rank →
Δ to #1
R
897
973
🥇
HR
258
284
🥇
RBI
837
856
🥇
SB
124
130
136
188
+58
AVG
.255
.255
.257
.258
+0.002
K
1119
1145
1230
+85
W
66
67
71
78
+11
SV
73
77
85
88
+11
ERA
3.46
3.16
🥇
WHIP
1.18
1.11
🥇

📅 Yesterday's MIZ Box Scores (2026-08-26)

Loading box scores…

🏥 IL Rehab Tracker

IL players · rehab game logs.

On the IL, no rehab games yet: James Wood (IL10), Joe Ryan (IL15), Spencer Schwellenbach (IL60 · watch).

📊 League Activity (last 24h)

All adds, drops, and trades across the 12 teams.

TeamMove
Photogenic Nick Kurtz+ Luis Robert Jr. | − Lawrence Butler
Photogenic Nick Kurtz+ Dustin May | − Adrian Houser
Photogenic Nick Kurtz+ Nick Sogard | − Joey Ortiz
Miz-waukee’s Best+ Angel Genao
Photogenic Nick Kurtz+ Joey Cantillo | − Walbert Urena

🏆 League Standings

Current roto points · 10,000-sim projected finish. FAAB = acquisition budget remaining.

99.5% to win the league · proj finish 1.0 · 101.6 roto pts

#TeamPtsFAABWin%Proj PtsRangeProj Rk
1MIZ Miz-waukee’s Best106.0$099.5%101.697–1061.0
2FRAN Hit the Damn Ball You Bums84.0$740.5%88.382–942.1
3PEYT Phil Swift's Flex Seal 74.5$350.0%77.571–843.6
4KRTZ Photogenic Nick Kurtz74.0$290.0%78.371–853.5
5GoOs I need Buck Showalter72.5$1700.0%71.365–774.9
6BLOB Camp MVP64.0$1680.0%66.762–715.9
7THAR Phil Mickeltits63.0$1760.0%60.555–667.1
8KNIG Team Knighton59.5$1370.0%55.850–628.1
9GARR The Boys of Summer52.0$1550.0%53.648–608.6
10DORN Dorn and Associates LLC 45.0$890.0%42.338–4810.9
11RAGE Ramirez Against the Machine45.0$1630.0%38.534–4311.7
12FRST Worst2First40.5$1540.0%45.540–5110.2

10,000 sims · fixed seed · noise CV talent 0.12 / idio 0.06 / team-cat 0.08 · assumes ATC rest-of-season rates

Your categories · projected roto points

R 12.0HR 12.0RBI 11.4SB 7.0AVG 8.6W 7.1SV 9.1K 10.6ERA 12.0WHIP 12.0

Winnable — push here: SB, AVG, W, SV.

🚨 Today's Streaming Board

147 of 200 GS · should be 166 · 19 behindBehind pace — stream aggressively
053 left · ~12.0/wk to cap · proj 177200

⏳ BP's post is late — Verdict pill is running on our score + Pitcher List for now (BP joins the top-2 once it posts).

Your starters + top FA streamers

PitcherMatchupVerdictBPMIZPLTake
Jacob Misiorowski@ NYMAUTO START—8.0#1Elite ace, no caveats, start without hesitation.
Sean Manaeavs MILDART⚠ opener—4.7#893 mph fastball for strikes keeps him viable streamer.
Hayden Wesneski@ NYYDART—5.2#9LHB-heavy lineup neutralizes his best platoon weapon.
Gabriel Hughes@ WSHSIT—3.9#13Favorable opponent, but command regression makes upside unlikely.
Jose Cabrera@ SFSIT—2.7—tough SF lineup, weak skills, friendly park
Spencer Arrighettivs KCSIT⚠ opener—3.2#12Flat velo and narrow pitch mix undermine his ceiling.
Jake Irvinvs COLSIT—2.2#10Coors matchup hurts; velocity tick-up lone positive.
Kohl Drake@ SFGSIT——#11Unproven arm, even a pitcher-friendly park doesn't save him.
Cooper Hjerpevs. BALSITopener——#14PILOT Rule role, minimal immediate fantasy impact expected.

Your staff: 3.16 ERA / 1.11 WHIP · GS 147/200 — Behind pace — stream aggressively. Verdict = the best 2 of BP · our score · Pitcher List, averaged (low outlier dropped); before BP posts it's our score + PL. ⚠ = our matchup score dissented — eyeball that one. Tap a MIZ score for the reasoning.

Tomorrow · 2 of yours + top 5 FA · Fri 8/28 · BP not out yet, so pill = our score + Pitcher List

PitcherMatchupVerdictBPMIZPLTake
Dylan Ceasevs SEAAUTO START—7.5—soft SEA lineup, strong skills, hot recent form
Eury Pérez@ WSHSTART—6.2—tough WSH lineup, hot recent form, strong skills
Blade Tidwellvs AZDART⚠ opener—5.6—average AZ lineup, strong skills, friendly park
Quinn Mathewsvs PITDART—5.6—soft PIT lineup, shaky recent form, strong skills
Dean Kremervs CWSDART—5.2—tough CWS lineup, hot recent form, hitter park
Andrew Painter@ LAADART—5.1—soft LAA lineup, weak skills, hot recent form
Jared Jones@ STLDART—4.9—soft STL lineup, shaky recent form, short leash

📼 Streamer Report Card

Does the Streaming Board actually work? Every pick it showed, frozen at pick time and graded off the real box score. Two scoreboards below: first our own calls — the Verdict ladder and MIZ (our matchup score, 0–10) — then the outside lists behind them, BP (RelieverRecon's daily BP Streamers post) and PL (Pitcher List's tier ranking). Grades are recomputed from raw lines on every build — the rubric can change, the history follows.

Last 30d · 382 starts graded over 29 days · GOOD+ 52% · BLOWUP 16% · agg ERA 4.07 · WHIP 1.30 · 4.5 K/start · 406 picks logged, 14 never started, 10 awaiting a box score — not graded

Grade mix · all 382 graded starts

GEM 84 GOOD 116 OK 120 BLOWUP 62
GEM6+ IP, ≤1 ER · or 6+ IP, 8+ K, ≤2 ERGOODquality start (6+ IP, ≤3 ER) · or 5+ IP, ≤2 EROKheld the line without earning GOODBLOWUP5+ ER · or under 4 IP with 4+ ERGOOD+ = GEM + GOOD. A pick whose starter never took the ball grades to nothing and leaves every rate below.
CohortnGOOD+BLOWUPERA
Q1 — Do our own calls work? · Verdict ladder + MIZ bands · live board rows only, nothing backfilled
Verdict · AUTO START2171%10%3.06
Verdict · START4260%7%3.42
Verdict · DART9148%14%4.42
Verdict · SIT16848%21%4.40
MIZ ≥ 5.011360%12%3.57
MIZ 3.5–4.911351%16%4.44
MIZ < 3.58141%22%4.90
All live board picks32251%16%4.18
Q1 read — GOOD+ falls 71% · 60% · 48% · 48% down the rungs, but BLOWUP does not rise with it, and MIZ sorts: GOOD+ falls 60% · 51% · 41% from the top band down.
Q2 — Which outside list earns the weight? · BP and PL graded on their own published lists · mostly rebuilt from git
PL · Auto Start3379%6%2.85
PL · Probably Start4360%16%3.78
PL · Questionable Start9651%16%4.36
PL · Do Not Start18450%20%4.18
BP · Auto1436%7%3.94
BP · Likely5947%17%4.14
All graded picks38252%16%4.07
Q2 read — against the 52% all-picks baseline, PL's top tiers clear it (79% · 60%) and BP's top tiers are too thin to call (36% · 47% on n=14 · n=59).

Rows are overlapping lenses on the same picks, not a partition — one start can be a PL Auto Start and a Verdict SIT at once, so they never sum to the headline; each group is read against its own baseline row.

⚠ Dissent check — the override is ahead so far — 67% GOOD+ on n=9. Splits are picks the board started over our MIZ sit-call (vs 51% for all live picks).

Calibration — do our numbers mean anything? · full season, 2026-06-29→2026-08-26 · 841 graded picks · MIZ on 307, BP on 230, Verdict on 322

The ladder above asks whether the tiers sort. This asks the harder question: is the number a probability — when the board says 7, do 70% of those starts come back GOOD+? Bins are equal-count and merge until every one clears n=15; the walk-forward rows are scored against a model that only ever saw earlier days.

Score binnmeanGOOD+95% CI
MIZ score → P(GOOD+) · our matchup score, 0–10 · live rows only · n=307
MIZ 0.5–3.2622.540%29%–53%
MIZ 3.3–3.9643.648%37%–60%
MIZ 4.0–4.8614.452%40%–64%
MIZ 4.9–5.6625.252%39%–64%
MIZ 5.7–8.9586.467%54%–78%
All MIZ-scored picks307—52%—
BP score → P(GOOD+) · RelieverRecon's published rating · includes git-backfilled rows · n=230
BP 4.6–6.6486.135%23%–50%
BP 6.7–7.3447.052%38%–66%
BP 7.4–7.7477.545%31%–59%
BP 7.8–8.4478.147%33%–61%
BP 8.5–10.0449.143%30%–58%
All BP-scored picks230—44%—
Verdict tier → P(GOOD+) · the consensus call itself · live rows only
AUTO START21—71%50%–86%
START42—60%44%–73%
DART91—48%38%–58%
SIT168—48%41%–56%
Out-of-samplenvaluevs
Walk-forward probability · logistic on MIZ, refit daily on earlier days only · from 2026-08-05 · 21 days
Brier — our probability2430.248lower is better
Brier — flat base rate to date2430.256we win by 0.008
Brier — verdict-tier history2430.256we win by 0.007
Log loss — our probability2430.690lower is better
ECE — our probability2430.0575 equal-count bins
ECE bins · predicted p vs what actually happened
said 32%–48%4941%off by 3%
said 48%–52%4844%off by 7%
said 53%–57%4945%off by 10%
said 57%–61%4854%off by 4%
said 61%–74%4961%off by 4%
Verdict — usable with caveats: ECE 0.057 over n=243 out-of-sample picks (≤0.03 well calibrated · ≤0.07 usable with caveats); edges the flat base rate on Brier (0.248 vs 0.256, a thin margin; log-loss ~coin-flip).

🔥 Today's Hitter Streamers

Top 10 FA bats for today's slate · score = split vs SP hand (35%) + SP softness (35%) + bat quality (15%) + trailing 15 days (10%) + park (5%) · facing an elite arm fades the score hard (feast on weak pitchers).

#HitterMatchupWhyLegsScore
1AUTO STARTDrew GilbertRF · 0% own
vs AZ · Cabrera RHP
szn .321 xwOBAL15: 0.855 OPS (41 PA)L14 contact +6.0 (.568 xwOBAcon, 22 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)fills OF needbeats 2 of 2 eligible startersCabrera .353 allowed · soft SP0.8 OPS vs RHP (244 AB)
L15
bat
SP
L/R
park
79
2CONSIDERAndrew Vaughn1B · 4% own
@ NYM · Manaea LHP
szn .342 xwOBAL15: 0.774 OPS (44 PA)L14 contact -0.6 (.356 xwOBAcon, 28 BBE)usually bats 4th (×1.05)beats 0 of 1 eligible startersManaea .336 allowed · soft SP1.041 OPS vs LHP (89 AB)
L15
bat
SP
L/R
park
78
3AUTO STARTTroy JohnstonRF · 4% own
@ WSH · Irvin RHP
szn .328 xwOBAL15: 1.080 OPS (27 PA)L14 contact +4.4 (.468 xwOBAcon, 19 BBE)usually bats 8th (×0.93)fills OF needbeats 2 of 3 eligible startersIrvin .353 allowed · soft SP0.815 OPS vs RHP (263 AB)
L15
bat
SP
L/R
park
72
4DEPTHKyle Karros3B · 3% own
@ WSH · Irvin RHP
szn .338 xwOBAusually bats 5thbeats 0 of 1 eligible startersIrvin .353 allowed · soft SP0.768 OPS vs RHP (221 AB)
L15
bat
SP
L/R
park
64
5DEPTHChristian Encarnacion-Strand1B · 3% own
@ STL · TBD
szn .350 xwOBAL15: 0.776 OPS (49 PA)L14 contact +4.1 (.462 xwOBAcon, 29 BBE)usually bats 5thbeats 0 of 1 eligible startersSP: TBD
L15
bat
SP
L/R
park
55
6STARTSterlin ThompsonLF · 0% own
@ WSH · Irvin RHP
szn .295 xwOBAfills OF needbeats 1 of 2 eligible startersIrvin .353 allowed · soft SP0.723 OPS vs RHP (55 AB)
L15
bat
SP
L/R
park
55
7CONSIDERMichael Massey2B · 1% own
@ TOR · Arrighetti RHP
szn .298 xwOBAL15: 1.210 OPS (34 PA)L14 contact +1.1 (.395 xwOBAcon, 28 BBE)DTD — check lineupusually bats 7th (×0.95)Arrighetti .345 allowed · soft SP0.721 OPS vs RHP (259 AB)
L15
bat
SP
L/R
park
55
8STARTColton CowserCF · 2% own
@ STL · TBD
szn .319 xwOBAL15: 1.024 OPS (29 PA)L14 contact +3.1 (.439 xwOBAcon, 19 BBE)usually bats 8th (×0.93)fills OF needbeats 1 of 2 eligible startersSP: TBD
L15
bat
SP
L/R
park
52
9DEPTHCoby Mayo1B · 2% own
@ STL · TBD
szn .313 xwOBAL15: 0.673 OPS (39 PA)L14 contact +6.0 (.592 xwOBAcon, 23 BBE)usually bats 4th (×1.05)beats 0 of 1 eligible startersSP: TBD
L15
bat
SP
L/R
park
52
10CONSIDERGary SanchezC · 2% own
@ NYM · Manaea LHP
szn .350 xwOBAL15: 0.529 OPS (32 PA)L14 contact -4.9 (.262 xwOBAcon, 16 BBE)usually bats 5thManaea .336 allowed · soft SP0.793 OPS vs LHP (87 AB)
L15
bat
SP
L/R
park
51

Tiers vs YOUR lineup tonight — median starter 63, worst Jordan Lawlar (39). AUTO START = beats the median eligible starter.

TBD starter = neutral SP + split legs until the probable posts (refresh upgrades it). Splits need 30+ AB vs that hand. IL bats are excluded; bats who rarely start against tonight's hand are dropped. Doubleheaders: legs average the ends he plays, and everyday bats get up to a ×1.50 volume boost. Lineup slot scales the score by expected PAs from the bat's usual spot (leadoff ×1.12 … 9-hole ×0.90, modal over the last ~10 played days) — his typical order, not today's card, since that posts after waivers run.

🎯 FA Hitters — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Miguel Vargas
1Justin CrawfordCF · Phi · 3.6%CATEGORY FIT
Highest roto sim +0.4; 5 projected SB directly attacks MIZ's only vulnerable category at rank 6
ATC 92 PA · 1 HR · 5 SB · 0.268 · L7 0.188 · 0 HR · sim +0.4 pts
2Tristan Peters
CF · ChW · 12.1% · HEATER
5 HR, 9 RBI in 7 days; L7 flare on 18 BBE trusted sample with .518 xwOBAcon corroborating eruption
L7 flare 81 · ATC 74 PA · 1 HR · 1 SB · 0.237 · L7 0.435 · 5 HR · sim +0.1 pts
3Mickey Gasper
C · Bos · 6.8% · HEATER
88/99 heat on 23 BBE, .618 xwOBAcon, .429 BA last 7; elite contact quality on sufficient sample
Heat 88 · 23 BBE · ATC 10 PA · 0 HR · 0 SB · 0.225 · L7 0.429 · 2 HR · sim +0.1 pts
4Dylan Beavers
LF · Bal · 2.1% · UPSIDE
78 heat on 21 BBE, 3 HR, 6 RBI L14, .389 BA L7; wRC+ 103 projection with legitimate contact signal
Heat 78 · 21 BBE · ATC 90 PA · 2 HR · 2 SB · 0.237 · L7 0.389 · 2 HR · sim +0.0 pts
5Colt Keith
1B · Det · 5.3% · HEATER
83/99 heat on 22 BBE, .467 xwOBAcon; underlying contact quality far outpaces brutal surface production
Heat 83 · 22 BBE · ATC 105 PA · 3 HR · 1 SB · 0.259 · L7 0.083 · 0 HR · sim +0.1 pts
Passed on: Xander Bogaerts projects similarly to Keith but lacks the elite contact-quality heat signal that justifies prioritizing Keith's underlying floor over Bogaerts' modest volume upside.

💪 Hitter List Rankings

PL Top 150 hitters · your bats + top FAs.

On Hitter List · 18 yours · 10 FAs

RankHitterMLBPosChgAVGxwOBAHRSBRoSChu’s Take
18Randy ArozarenaSEAOF-.272.3482020123Randy Arozarena is only hitting .238 in August, but his expected stats for this month suggest it should be closer to .280. I’m a little d…
19Kyle SchwarberPHIDH+2.243.366403127When Kyle Schwarber is hot, he’s HOT. The Field of Dreams game was his second two-homer outing in his last five starts and facing the Twi…
39Yandy DíazTB1B+10.301.356193123
40Miguel VargasCHW1B/3B-10.251.3902913113Miguel Vargas continues to slump, and while there isn’t anything you should do about it from an add/drop perspective, it’s certainly frus…
57Zach NetoLAASS+4.237.3032218109
62Royce LewisMIN1B/2B/3B+8.234.3171313103
63Cole CarriggCOLOF+2.269.3186768
72Jac CaglianoneKC1B/OF+23.274.361226107Jac Caglianone has improved the strikeout rate in a huge way, and the ground ball rate is below 50%. All systems are GO.
77Dansby SwansonCHCSS+2.216.3071817101
84Ty FranceSD1B+1.288.332181106
101Tyler SoderstromATH1B/OF+5.245.328192—
102Jacob WilsonATHSS+8.266.28274—
112Tyler StephensonCINC+UR.245.33512097
114Dylan CrewsWSHOF+15.217.32010887
117Ryan JeffersMINC+15.276.355101118
122Andruw MonasterioBOS2B/SS+15.255.2986492
126Luis RengifoSD2B/3B/OF+17.245.3044687
133Cam SmithHOUOF+UR.216.3241710100OK, Cam Smith , go ahead, tease me one more time.
137Abimelec OrtizWSH1B/OF+UR.208.3395087
139Bryce EldridgeSF1B-26.252.35214199Bryce Eldridge is getting the ball in the air, but he’s not pulling it much and strikeouts have been an issue. He’s a solid hold in Dynas…
TSAngel GenaoCleSS—.288.3041194Angel Genao (3B, CLE) — Plenty of hard-hit balls in play, albeit mostly on the ground. Feels like a streamer for now with more upside in …
TSHenry BolteOakOF—.272.30761491Henry Bolte (OF, ATH) — Playing every day but the results aren’t overly exciting (though playing a ton of lefties lately has helped).
TSJordan LawlarAri3B/OF—.290.3313489Jordan Lawlar (3B/OF, ARI) — Has a home run in back-to-back games on his rehab, but striking out a TON. Sounds like he’ll be back this we…
TSKaelen CulpepperMinSS—.333.3143091Kaelen Culpepper (SS, MIN) — Culpepper is off to a slow start and is sitting every third day or so, but can remain an upside stash if you…
TSWalker JenkinsMinOF—————92Walker Jenkins (OF, MIN) — Hitting extremely well in August (1.063 OPS), and the collapse of Larnach may give him a chance to break throu…
URFranklin AriasBosSS——————Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
URJames WoodWshOF—.265.4193017129Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
URRalphy VelazquezCle1B—————83Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.

🔥 Heat Board

Hottest ACTIVE free-agent bats by contact quality, 8/13–8/26 · Heat = percentile vs all MLB bats over the same window (xwOBAcon 30 · EV 20 · Brl 20 · HH 15 · K 10 · BB 5) · min 15 BBE to qualify (smaller samples live in the HM rail) · IL excluded.

89
Ryan Vilade
RF · TB · 0.2% own · xwOBAcon .651 · EV 97.5 · Brl 18.8% · 16 BBE
▲ .145 BA vs SZN
BAHRRBIRSB
SZN.2641137253
L14.4092250
88
Mickey Gasper
C · Bos · 6.8% own · xwOBAcon .618 · EV 90.8 · Brl 26.1% · 23 BBE
▲ .142 BA vs SZN
BAHRRBIRSB
SZN.275519170
L14.41751260
88
Brett Baty
3B · NYM · 2.6% own · xwOBAcon .454 · EV 93.4 · Brl 13.3% · 15 BBE
▲ .166 BA vs SZN
BAHRRBIRSB
SZN.223840455
L14.3890230
84
Randal Grichuk
RF · ChW · 0.4% own · xwOBAcon .472 · EV 92.3 · Brl 29.4% · 17 BBE
▲ .151 BA vs SZN
BAHRRBIRSB
SZN.2781132320
L14.4292750
83
Colt Keith
1B · Det · 5.3% own · xwOBAcon .467 · EV 93.8 · Brl 9.1% · 22 BBE
▼ .014 BA vs SZN
BAHRRBIRSB
SZN.264932465
L14.2501140
81
Drew Gilbert
RF · SF · 0.5% own · xwOBAcon .568 · EV 91.9 · Brl 18.2% · 22 BBE
▲ .052 BA vs SZN
BAHRRBIRSB
SZN.242734391
L14.2942970
80
Coby Mayo
1B · Bal · 1.8% own · xwOBAcon .592 · EV 90.1 · Brl 21.7% · 23 BBE
▼ .012 BA vs SZN
BAHRRBIRSB
SZN.2121748472
L14.2002370
78
Andres Chaparro
1B · Wsh · 0.5% own · xwOBAcon .475 · EV 89.4 · Brl 26.1% · 23 BBE
▲ .093 BA vs SZN
BAHRRBIRSB
SZN.252933270
L14.3453570
78
Dylan Beavers
LF · Bal · 2.1% own · xwOBAcon .428 · EV 92.6 · Brl 23.8% · 21 BBE
▲ .073 BA vs SZN
BAHRRBIRSB
SZN.250631295
L14.3233950
77
Patrick Bailey
C · Cle · 0.8% own · xwOBAcon .493 · EV 92.0 · Brl 6.2% · 16 BBE
▲ .046 BA vs SZN
BAHRRBIRSB
SZN.194730243
L14.2401731
Honorable mention · hottest L7 (8/20–8/26), not yet on the board · tiny samples — peek, don't trust
91
Ezequiel Tovar
SS · Col
.729 xwOBAcon
9 BBE · .500 L7
82
Hao-Yu Lee
3B · Det
.468 xwOBAcon
19 BBE · .227 L7
81
Tristan Peters
CF · ChW
.518 xwOBAcon
18 BBE · .435 L7
78
Elias Diaz
C · Tex
.386 xwOBAcon
11 BBE · .167 L7
73
Nathan Lukes
RF · Tor
.418 xwOBAcon
14 BBE · .353 L7
72
Justin Foscue
2B · Tex
.400 xwOBAcon
18 BBE · .227 L7
🎯 FA Pitchers — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Sandy Alcantara
59
1Dylan SmithRP · SF · 0.6%BEST VALUE
Highest roto sim (+1.4), confirmed closer role, 4 projected SV protects rank-3 saves.
Supp 59 · 14 BBE · ATC 11.0 IP · 1 W · 11 K · 3.97 · 1.33 · 4 SV · Closer · sim +1.4 pts
2Andrew Kittredge
RP · Bal · 1.7% · CATEGORY FIT
Confirmed closer, best roto sim among RPs behind Smith (+0.9), clean ratios preserve ERA/WHIP.
Supp 71 · 19 BBE · ATC 11.0 IP · 1 W · 11 K · 3.87 · 1.21 · 2 SV · Closer · sim +0.9 pts
3Juan Morillo
RP · Ari · 2.6% · UPSIDE
Confirmed closer (+0.8 sim), elite suppression 93rd-pct on 10 BBE — role validates the heater signal.
Supp 93 · 10 BBE · ATC 11.0 IP · 1 W · 11 K · 3.83 · 1.35 · 1 SV · Closer · sim +0.8 pts
4Grayson Rodriguez
SP · LAA · 3.4% · HEATER
86th-pct suppression on 47 trusted BBE; GS cap has room; best contact-quality allowed of the SPs.
Supp 86 · 47 BBE · ATC 25.0 IP · 2 W · 25 K · 4.30 · 1.31 · sim +0.0 pts
5Christian Scott
SP · NYM · 10.5% · FLOOR
3.94 ATC ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 29 K in 5 GS — safest ratio-protecting SP volume under the cap.
Supp 45 · 29 BBE · ATC 28.0 IP · 1 W · 29 K · 3.94 · 1.22 · sim +0.0 pts
Passed on: Max Scherzer's 92nd-pct suppression is tantalizing but 4.77 ATC ERA bleeds the ERA/WHIP leads MIZ cannot afford to sacrifice.

⚾ Pitcher List Rankings

PL Top 100 SP · your arms + top FAs.

On Pitcher List · 6 yours · 10 FAs

RankPitcherMLBChgERAxERAK/9RoSPollack’s Take
1Jacob MisiorowskiMIL-1.681.9813.43.32Like a base set Charizard, Misiorowski’s not gonna stop being dope.
9Blake SnellLAD+72.572.2911.13.42#HotSnellSummer is in full swing.
10Dylan CeaseTOR-12.372.6813.03.45Like a perfect burger without the condiments to hit all your macros, Cease gives you everything except for a stable WHIP due to his infla…
20Kyle HarrisonMIL+82.793.2411.14.12With a dominant outing, he muted our concerns, but Harrison’s still displaying decreased velocity and not commanding as well as he did in…
22Eury PérezMIA-43.173.679.73.87Pérez has the stuff to be an ace, but there’s polishing to do in the command and game plan departments to unlock his full potential.
30Sandy AlcantaraMIA-43.383.646.74.19Baseball’s premier innings eater hasn’t ruined his appetite.
38Jacob LopezATH+64.983.368.64.63It’s the 2025 hot streak all over again. Enjoy the ride, ya’ll!
40Walbert UreñaLAA-2.943.448.74.54Armed with upper-90s heaters and one of the best changeups in baseball, Ureña has hit few speed bumps. If that developing sweeper becomes…
43Andrew PainterPHI+UR6.044.817.74.78From off The List to inside the Top 50, Painter has stolen our hearts with an improved heater (97+ mph with 17-18″ iVB) and emphasis on r…
45Peter LambertHOU-43.663.448.84.58Lambert’s stumble last time was a product of being Singled Out . He’s been reliable all year, but we should be recognizing that Holly is …
46Jared JonesPIT-84.763.6710.23.99The stuff is top-tier, but he’s still shaking off the Tommy John surgery rust with his command and the tight leash the Pirates have on hi…
56Shane BieberTOR+144.375.947.14.19Bieber is back in business. His heater looked awesome in The Trop, and his offspeed pitches are being the CSW monsters they need to be to…
57Tyler MahleATL-4.414.288.54.10Mahle’s command and velocity have been stellar since returning from the IL in late June. He’s got an even better situation pitching in At…
58Brandon PfaadtARI-3.513.756.24.60Despite what the line suggests, Pfaadt’s last start wasn’t an end to his Vargas Rule . It was a textbook Careful, Icarus with a three-run…
59Christian ScottNYM+13.733.9711.23.94Scott has been happy to show us his floor, but the stuff is still there to propel him up The List at a moment’s notice. It’s felt a littl…
60Sean ManaeaNYM-44.314.819.04.26The velo was 93+ last time, and he’s still supporting it with an elite sweeper. Manaea’s command has prevented him from excelling across …

🔒 Closer Chart

Save targets · roles + regression flags.

BLUEEntrenched closer (highest leverage)GREENNext man up / committee pieceYELLOWSetup, 8th-inning leverageORANGESpeculative / lower priorityMAGENTAHigh-upside future / multi-inning
PitcherTmRoleSVSVHDIPERAWHIPxERAK/9Rtg / Own
Yours on the chart
—Andrés MuñozSeattle MarinersCL242448.34.281.223.3114.35.0 · —
—Louis VarlandToronto Blue JaysCL303567.71.200.992.24 ↑11.05.0 · —
—Justin MartinezArizona DiamondbacksFU003.00.001.003.54 ↑6.01.0 · —
Top 5 FA closers (by team rating)
—Calvin FaucherMiami MarlinsCL21656.33.991.373.7210.13.5 · 1%
Andrew KittredgeBaltimore OriolesCL71640.33.351.363.867.43.0 · 2%
Dylan SmithSan Francisco GiantsCL31028.73.451.363.5911.33.0 · 1%
Juan MorilloArizona DiamondbacksCL21952.32.241.012.3510.31.0 · 3%
🌱 Green-tagged FA — upside / stash
Carson SeymourSan Francisco GiantsST1417.35.191.566.29 ↑7.33.0 · 0%

ERA cell: green <3.00 · red >4.50. xERA arrow: ↓ ERA likely to fall (buy) · ↑ ERA likely to rise (sell). Triggers when |xERA−ERA| ≥ 1.00.

✂️ Cut List

Drop priority · value, form, pedigree, role.

50
Royce Lewis 3B · Min
low TV (18)
sim cost ~0
TV 18
Rd 13
31
Justin Martinez RP · Ari
low TV (16); BUT fresh-callup upside; BUT strong RoS (3.46 ERA)
sim −0.44% win if cut
TV 16
UFDA
14
Kyle Harrison SP · Mil
mid TV (60); UFDA — easy to drop; BUT top-tier keeper
sim cost ~0
TV 60
UFDA
11
Sandy Alcantara SP · Mia
BUT solid keeper
sim cost ~0
TV 72
Rd 14

Higher score = drop sooner — top 5 by score, and only 8+ reaches the board, so the number has no ceiling and is only comparable within this list. The sim line is a roto-sim marginal (cut vs. keep on one shared set of draws), not a measured cost. Pedigree + named closers shielded.

🌱 Stash List

PL's top prospects · grab them cheap.

Hitters

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 22: Top 10 Hitting Prospects to Stash

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + PSS + PFV + age + 40-man + path.

24 available — 3 yours

W. Jenkins YOURS
OF · MIN · AAA · 21 · knocking on the door
100
PSS
85
PFV
61
ETA
days
Szn
14·17·.323
F. Arias YOURS
SS · BOS · AAA · 20 · knocking on the door
90
PSS
70
PFV
60
ETA
days
Szn
23·6·.313
R. Velazquez YOURS
1B/C · CLE · AA · 20 · nearly ready
84
PSS
76
PFV
57
ETA
Sept
Szn
27·2·.292
J. Tibbs III
OF · LAD · AAA · 23 · knocking on the door
100
PSS
88
PFV
54
ETA
days
Szn
27·7·.298
S. Thompson
OF · COL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down
95
PSS
80
PFV
55
ETA
1-3wk
Szn
12·16·.300
B. Davidson
OF · SFG · AAA · 24 · knocking on the door
92
PSS
86
PFV
42
ETA
September
Szn
25·19·.284
M. Anderson
2B · DET · AAA · 24 · nearly ready
89
PSS
71
PFV
52
ETA
1-3wk
Szn
16·5·.309
S. King
SS/2B/3B · WSN · AAA · 23 · nearly ready
88
PSS
79
PFV
50
ETA
1-3wk
Szn
18·14·.323
J. Melton
OF · TB · AAA · 25 · nearly ready
87
PSS
79
PFV
58
ETA
1-3wk
Szn
7·26·.307
C. Cannarella
OF · MIA · AAA · 22 · nearly ready
87
PSS
76
PFV
50
ETA
1-3wk
Szn
13·20·.334
L. Montes
OF · SEA · AAA · 21 · nearly ready
84
PSS
74
PFV
56
ETA
1-3wk
Szn
37·6·.248
M. Arroyo
SS · SEA · AAA · 21 · nearly ready
84
PSS
46
PFV
55
ETA
days
Szn
17·16·.281
Y. Morales
3B · WSN · AAA · 24 · nearly ready
83
PSS
78
PFV
47
ETA
1-3wk
Szn
24·5·.286
P. Harber
3B · SFG · AAA · 24 · nearly ready
83
PSS
58
PFV
54
ETA
'27
Szn
17·4·.290
R. Ward
LF · LAD · AAA · 28 · ↩ sent down
82
PSS
84
PFV
51
ETA
1-3wk
Szn
20·7·.254
C. Ingle
C · CLE · ↩ sent down
82
PSS
79
PFV
48
ETA
1-3wk
Szn
18·2·.286
H. Mendez
OF · MIN · AAA · 22 · nearly ready
80
PSS
68
PFV
58
ETA
Sept
Szn
12·4·.279
J. Long
1B · CHC · AAA · 24 · nearly ready
79
PSS
67
PFV
52
ETA
4-8wk
Szn
13·3·.278
K. Alderman
OF · MIA · AAA · 23 · nearly ready
79
PSS
72
PFV
49
ETA
4-8wk
Szn
18·10·.262
E. Arroyo
SS · CIN · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down
77
PSS
69
PFV
49
ETA
4-8wk
Szn
15·14·.288
E. Salas
C · SDP · AAA · 20 · on the climb
76
PSS
80
PFV
52
ETA
September
Szn
10·16·.290
Z. Hope
OF · DET · AA · 21 · on the climb
76
PSS
94
PFV
60
ETA
Sept
Szn
26·22·.275
J. Made
SS · MIL · AA · 19 · on the climb
73
PSS
97
PFV
64
ETA
Sept
Szn
13·33·.273
D. Crisantes
2B/3B · ARI · AAA · 21 · on the climb
68
PSS
16
PFV
58
ETA
4-8wk
Szn
9·0·.293
Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

Pitchers

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 22: Top 10 Pitching Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + L3 quality + FV + age + 40-man + path.

27 available

J. Tong
SP · NYM · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down
90
PSS
36
PFV
60
ETA
—
Szn
125K·4.75
A. Kelly
SP · PIT · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down
88
PSS
18
PFV
61
ETA
—
Szn
70K·4.21
T. Johnson
SP · TBR · AAA · 24 · nearly ready
80
PSS
89
PFV
60
ETA
—
Szn
80K·2.90
C. Crow
SP · MIL · ↩ sent down
80
PSS
47
PFV
57
ETA
—
Szn
89K·3.55
T. Bremner
SP · LAA · AA · 22 · nearly ready
79
PSS
99
PFV
66
ETA
'26
Szn
84K·4.26
M. Bratt
SP · ARI · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down
78
PSS
80
PFV
68
ETA
—
Szn
79K·3.33
D. Davalillo
SP · TEX · AAA · 24 · nearly ready
78
PSS
46
PFV
62
ETA
—
Szn
91K·5.01
R. Sloan
SP · SEA · AA · 20 · on the climb
77
PSS
100
PFV
64
ETA
—
Szn
111K·3.63
J. Ritchie
SP · ATL · ↩ sent down
76
PSS
36
PFV
59
ETA
—
Szn
114K·3.83
M. Forret
SP · BAL · AAA · 22 · on the climb
73
PSS
77
PFV
72
ETA
—
Szn
115K·3.85
T. McDougal
SP · CHW · AAA · 23 · ↩ sent down
71
PSS
41
PFV
57
ETA
—
Szn
47K·4.43
B. Garrett
SP · ↩ sent down
70
PSS
80
PFV
62
ETA
June 1st
Szn
101K·3.68
M. Wilkinson
SP · SFG · AAA · 23 · ↩ sent down
70
PSS
34
PFV
58
ETA
—
Szn
98K·3.57
B. Mautz
SP · STL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down
68
PSS
44
PFV
57
ETA
—
Szn
91K·3.86
C. Dana
SP · LAA · AAA · 22 · on the climb
67
PSS
36
PFV
58
ETA
—
Szn
72K·5.90
G. Wood
P · PHI · AA · 22 · on the climb
66
PSS
99
PFV
48
ETA
'26
Szn
117K·4.11
M. Ullola
SP · HOU · ↩ sent down
65
PSS
73
PFV
52
ETA
—
Szn
94K·4.41
O. Murphy
SP · ATL · ↩ sent down
64
PSS
55
PFV
64
ETA
—
Szn
119K·3.95
J. Wenninger
SP · NYM · on the climb
64
PSS
28
PFV
66
ETA
—
Szn
104K·4.17
B. Hopkins
SP · TBR · on the climb
62
PSS
43
PFV
63
ETA
—
Szn
111K·5.52
T. Gibson
SP · BAL · ↩ sent down
61
PSS
40
PFV
62
ETA
—
Szn
94K·5.15
K. Curtis
SP · PIT · ↩ sent down
60
PSS
40
PFV
55
ETA
—
Szn
109K·4.65
L. Braun
SP · ATL · developing
50
PSS
40
PFV
54
ETA
—
Szn
101K·3.72
Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

🔭 11 not a 2026 factor — Liam Doyle · Anthony Eyanson · Christian Zazueta · Jamie Arnold · Joseph Dzierwa · Jaxon Wiggins · Nestor German · Tyson Hardin · Jurrangelo Cijntje · Jonathan Santucci · Karson Milbrandt

💼 Trades

Buy-low targets · league trade history.

Top Buy-Lows

Rebound candidates · suggested offers.

Hitters

VerdictTargetOwnRoSTitle ΔSuggested offer
📈 BUY-LOWTrent Grisham CF · NYY · RAGE · glhoward40
+1.2σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.220 / xBA 0.249 · xwOBA 0.344
33%113 wRC+≈ 0.0%Franklin Arias SS + Royce Lewis 3B + +$5 FAAB · two-piece package (TV 27 vs target 38)
📈 BUY-LOWRonald Acuna Jr. RF · Atl · GoOs · My Best Guys
+1.3σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.232 / xBA 0.252 · xwOBA 0.359
98%136 wRC+≈ 0.0%Blake Snell SP + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 79 vs target 86)
📈 BUY-LOWJJ Bleday CF · Cin · RAGE · glhoward40
+1.2σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.220 / xBA 0.244 · xwOBA 0.349
24%104 wRC+≈ 0.1%Franklin Arias SS + Royce Lewis 3B · two-piece package (TV 27 vs target 27)
📈 BUY-LOWHeriberto Hernandez LF · Mia · FRAN · francisw789
+1.1σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.231 / xBA 0.248 · xwOBA 0.349
3%98 wRC+≈ 0.0%Royce Lewis 3B · comparable value (TV 18 vs target 23)
↑ mild buyTaylor Ward LF · Sea · GoOs · My Best Guys
+0.6σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.233 / xBA 0.244 · xwOBA 0.339
61%118 wRC+≈ 0.1%Kyle Harrison SP · comparable value (TV 60 vs target 60)
↑ mild buyBrandon Nimmo LF · Tex · DORN · Lambertmt48
+0.6σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.259 / xBA 0.280 · xwOBA 0.355
67%119 wRC+≈ 0.0%Walker Jenkins CF + Jac Caglianone RF · two-piece package (TV 53 vs target 45)
↑ mild buyDominic Canzone RF · Sea · GARR · jregarris
+0.6σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.256 / xBA 0.269 · xwOBA 0.355
12%113 wRC+≈ 0.0%Franklin Arias SS + Royce Lewis 3B + +$3 FAAB · two-piece package (TV 27 vs target 34)
↑ mild buyKyle Stowers LF · Mia · KNIG · TKHOO
+0.6σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.241 / xBA 0.233 · xwOBA 0.329
28%111 wRC+≈ 0.1%Franklin Arias SS + Royce Lewis 3B · two-piece package (TV 27 vs target 27)
📈 BUY-LOWCal Raleigh C · Sea · KNIG · TKHOO
+1.9σ buy-low · C — modest fit · BA 0.169 / xBA 0.183 · xwOBA 0.307
82%119 wRC+≈ 0.0%Yandy Diaz 1B + +$4 FAAB · comparable value (TV 73 vs target 81)
↑ mild buyIan Happ LF · ChC · FRAN · francisw789
+0.7σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.220 / xBA 0.205 · xwOBA 0.315
74%108 wRC+≈ 0.1%Jac Caglianone RF · comparable value (TV 52 vs target 56)

Pitchers

VerdictTargetOwnRoSTitle ΔSuggested offer
📈 BUY-LOWKodai Senga SP · NYM · KRTZ · FratSkins
+1.6σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 7.79 vs xERA 4.97
10%3.96 ERA≈ 0.2%Franklin Arias SS · comparable value (TV 9 vs target 14)
↑ mild buyLanden Roupp SP · SF · FRST · prestonc51684
+0.6σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.34 vs xERA 3.75
23%3.98 ERA≈ 0.0%Royce Lewis 3B · comparable value (TV 18 vs target 19)
↑ mild buyBryce Miller SP · Sea · BLOB · crenshawh19
+0.6σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.12 vs xERA 3.17
36%4.10 ERA≈ 0.0%Jac Caglianone RF · comparable value (TV 52 vs target 48)
↑ mild buyFreddy Peralta SP · TB · KNIG · TKHOO
+0.6σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 5.33 vs xERA 4.11
69%4.01 ERA≈ 0.0%Walker Jenkins CF + Jac Caglianone RF · two-piece package (TV 53 vs target 42)

League History

Completed trades · frozen grade at the deal + live grade now.

SideSentAt dealNowTrend
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Hit the Damn Ball You BumsAndy PagesA- +7A+ +44▲ up
Camp MVPPete Crow-ArmstrongC -7F -44▼ down
Team Knighton ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Team KnightonMatthew BoydF -22F -22
Camp MVPKenley JansenA+ +22A+ +22
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Worst2First 2026-08-10
Miz-waukee’s BestCharlie Condon, Payton TolleA+ +50A+ +35▼ down
Worst2FirstDylan CeaseF -50F -35▲ up
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Dorn and Associates LLC 2026-08-05
Photogenic Nick KurtzTravis Bazzana, George Lombard Jr., Nolan McLeanA+ +144A+ +106▼ down
Dorn and Associates LLC Jackson Chourio, Jhoan Duran, Brice Turang, David BednarF -144F -106▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-07-31
Miz-waukee’s BestSamuel Basallo, Kade AndersonA- +8A +8
Ramirez Against the MachineBlake SnellC -8D -8
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Team Knighton 2026-07-23
Photogenic Nick KurtzJo Adell, Jacob deGromF -49F -63▼ down
Team KnightonTrea TurnerA+ +49A+ +63▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine ⇄ Miz-waukee’s Best 2026-07-19
Ramirez Against the MachineSandy AlcantaraF -42F -68▼ down
Miz-waukee’s BestJosh JungA+ +42A+ +68▲ up
I need Buck Showalter ⇄ Hit the Damn Ball You Bums 2026-06-19
I need Buck ShowalterNasim NunezA+ +28B +1▼ down
Hit the Damn Ball You BumsJustin WrobleskiF -28B -1▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ The Boys of Summer 2026-06-12
Miz-waukee’s BestChandler SimpsonA +10A- +7▼ down
The Boys of Summer$30 FAABD -10C -7▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-05-01
Miz-waukee’s BestKenley Jansen—A- +6
Camp MVP$30 FAABA- +3C -6▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-04-22
Miz-waukee’s BestNathan Eovaldi, $70 FAAB—F -15
Ramirez Against the MachineJac CaglianoneA+ +60A+ +15▼ down

🔻 Sell-High — My Roster

Surface line outrunning the underlying skill — trade-value peaks. σ = his surface-stat z-score minus his Statcast-skill z-score, both against the league reference for his side — bigger σ = further ahead of the skill. Pair with Buy-Low Targets.

VerdictPlayerOwnSurface vs expectedContact2027 keeper
↓ SHOPHenry Bolte RF · Oak
0.65σ sell-high · RF · BA 0.276 / xBA 0.243 · xwOBA 0.307 — test the market, don't force it
4%BA 0.276 / xBA 0.243 +.033
wOBA 0.328 / xwOBA 0.307 +.021		HH 47.8% · Brl/PA 4.4%25th · +2 rds vs mkt
↓ SHOPYandy Diaz 1B · TB
0.60σ sell-high · 1B · BA 0.303 / xBA 0.288 · xwOBA 0.356 — test the market, don't force it
93%BA 0.303 / xBA 0.288 +.015
wOBA 0.364 / xwOBA 0.356 +.008		HH 47.3% · Brl/PA 5.1%7th · +1 rd vs mkt
HOLD — KEEPER PRICELouis Varland RP · Tor
0.48σ sell-high · RP · ERA 1.22 vs xERA 2.24 — only move for keeper-grade return
86%ERA 1.22 / xERA 2.24 -1.02Brl 4.4% allowed22nd · +16 rds vs mkt

👥 Your Roster

Your roster · news + buy/sell signals.

News (last 24h)

Player news · last 24h.

Leverage Buys/Sells

Buy/sell windows · surface vs. underlying.

Hitters

PlayerPosMLBBAxBAwOBAxwOBABrl%Own%Signal
James Wood IL10LFWsh0.2650.2750.3950.419100.099.1📈 BUY-LOW
Miguel Vargas3BChW0.2510.2680.3690.39093.095.2📈 BUY-LOW
Kyle SchwarberDHPhi0.2430.2370.3760.36698.099.6📈 BUY-LOW
Bryce Eldridge BRV1BSF0.2520.2510.3430.35277.08.1↑ mild buy
Jac CaglianoneRFKC0.2740.2800.3530.36192.054.4↑ mild buy
Zach NetoSSLAA0.2370.2070.3270.30375.060.4fair
Randy ArozarenaLFSea0.2720.2610.3650.34852.093.8fair
Yandy Diaz1BTB0.3010.2880.3640.35641.092.7↓ mild fade
Cole CarriggCFCol0.2690.2510.3450.318—14.0fair
Walker JenkinsCFMin—————2.3—
Ryan JeffersCMin0.2760.2540.3740.355—41.2fair
Henry BolteRFOak0.2720.2430.3280.30744.04.4↓ mild fade
Kaelen CulpepperSSMin0.3330.2630.3720.314—4.4fair
Royce Lewis3BMin0.2340.2430.3110.31775.017.6↑ mild buy
Jordan Lawlar3BAri0.2900.2720.3380.331—3.1fair
Franklin AriasSSBos—————1.4—
Ralphy Velazquez1BCle—————0.8—
Angel GenaoSSCle0.2880.2580.3310.304—3.1fair

Pitchers

PitcherPosMLBIPERAWHIPxERAK-BB%xwOBA-aBrl%-aOwn%Signal
Blake SnellSPLAD21.02.571.052.2919.50.2360.088.1↑ mild buy
Andres MunozRPSea48.34.281.223.3127.90.2839.480.1↑ mild buy
Joe Ryan IL15SPMin125.74.081.153.4921.20.29010.590.1fair
Jacob MisiorowskiSPMil145.01.680.761.9833.30.2193.899.6fair
Dylan CeaseSPTor144.32.371.062.6825.00.2554.699.3fair
Sandy AlcantaraSPMia183.73.381.183.6411.60.2965.391.2fair
Kyle HarrisonSPMil103.32.791.123.2423.60.2806.878.2fair
Eury PerezSPMia127.73.171.113.6716.50.2979.182.5fair
Louis VarlandRPTor67.71.200.992.2424.60.2334.486.3↓ mild fade
Justin MartinezRPAri3.00.001.003.540.00.2920.01.7—

📰 MLB News — Top Fantasy Stories

Top fantasy stories · last 24h.

🔒 Keepers — 2027 Slate

Peter's model (additive): rounds-saved (cost arbitrage spine) + current skill + career-grade pedigree + sample stability + Statcast over/under-performance trend, with age-decline (33+), closer/RP, and top-30 talent adjustments. Heavy on bargain-hunting.
Claude's model (multiplicative dynasty index): EFV(2027) = (3 + skill + upside) × age_mult × pos_mult; score = EFV − cost_replacement − mookie-lock. Compounds age curve and position scarcity.
Sorted by consensus rank (average of both models). MLB-inactive players surfaced in 🚑 Return Watch below.

Cons
Rank		PlayerPos · Age2027
Cost		PeterClaudeVerdictNotes
1.0Jacob MisiorowskiSP · 22yo21st#1 (+24.4)#1 (+50.8)S · $51UFDA-G FV 55
2.5Miguel Vargas3B · 26yo25th#2 (+23.5)#3 (+19.8)S · $20UFDA
2.5Louis VarlandRP · 28yo22nd#3 (+21.3)#2 (+27.1)S · $27
5.0Eury PerezSP · 23yo20th#4 (+18.6)#6 (+15.2)A · $15UFDA-G
5.0Kyle HarrisonSP · 24yo25th#5 (+18.1)#5 (+15.8)A · $16UFDA
6.0Zach NetoSS · 25yo10th#8 (+13.4)#4 (+16.1)A · $16
6.5Bryce Eldridge1B · 20yo25th#6 (+16.0)#7 (+13.7)A · $14UFDA FV 55
8.0Jac CaglianoneRF · 22yo21st#7 (+13.5)— (+10.5)A · $10UFDA-G FV 55
8.5Dylan CeaseSP · 30yo4th— (+11.9)#8 (+11.7)A · $12

NEW UFDA cap: Peter 3/3 · Claude 3/3 · BOTH = top 8 in both models. Peter only = his model values cost surplus more; Claude only = mine values projection / position scarcity more.

🚑 Return watch — would be keeper-eligible if they get MLB action this year. Rank shown is hypothetical (where they'd slot if eligible).

PlayerPos · AgeCostPeter (if elig.)Claude (if elig.)
Walker JenkinsCF · 20yo25th#15 (-2.0)#12 (+1.4)
Franklin AriasSS · 19yo25th#15 (-2.0)#12 (+3.0)
Ralphy Velazquez1B · 19yo25th#15 (-2.0)#12 (+1.4)

Updated Thu Aug 27 · 9:34 AM ET

🌍 League-Wide Top Keepers

Top 10 keepers · all 12 teams · both models. Yours in green.

Cons
Rank		PlayerPos · AgeTeam2027
Cost		PeterClaudeVerdict
1.5Jesus LuzardoSP · 28yoKNIG21st#1 (+28.7)#2 (+42.1)S · $42
3.0Jacob MisiorowskiSP · 22yoMIZ21st#5 (+24.4)#1 (+50.8)S · $51
3.5Jordan WalkerRF · 24yoGARR25th#2 (+27.5)#5 (+38.7)S · $39
3.5Bryan BakerRP · 31yoDORN25th#3 (+25.2)#4 (+38.7)S · $39
7.0Cam SchlittlerSP · 24yoKRTZ19th— (+20.3)#3 (+40.8)S · $41
7.5Payton TolleSP · 22yoFRST25th#4 (+25.0)— (+21.2)S · $21
8.0Nolan McLeanSP · 23yoDORN20th#9 (+22.4)#7 (+32.7)S · $33
8.0Otto LopezSS · 27yoBLOB20th#10 (+22.3)#6 (+33.9)S · $34
8.5Miguel Vargas3B · 26yoMIZ25th#6 (+23.5)— (+19.8)S · $20
9.0Ben Rice1B · 27yoDORN20th#7 (+23.1)— (+24.0)S · $24
9.5Jose SorianoSP · 27yoBLOB25th#8 (+22.5)— (+19.8)S · $20
9.5Foster GriffinSP · 30yoGoOs25th— (+21.8)#8 (+29.9)S · $30
10.0Louis VarlandRP · 28yoMIZ22nd— (+21.3)#9 (+27.1)S · $27
10.5Drew RasmussenSP · 30yoTHAR8th— (+13.6)#10 (+26.0)S · $26

Updated Thu Aug 27 · 9:34 AM ET

🏚️ Keeper Cupboards

Every team's six best keepers · shade = dual-model consensus value. Cupboard score weights the top four heavily (the slots that get kept), keepers 5–8 taper. 100 = league's best cupboard.

TeamK1K2K3K4K5K6Cupboard
1MIZMisiorowskiR21VargasR25VarlandR22PerezR20HarrisonR25NetoR10100
2DORNBakerR25RiceR20McLeanR20PerdomoR21WarrenR25KingR691
3GARRWalkerR25MessickR18DinglerR22CanzoneR25RocchioR25GrayR781
4KRTZSchlittlerR19BengeR25BurkeR25McGonigleR17MayR25StewartR1080
5KNIGLuzardoR21AbreuR15MartinezR25deGromR13RodriguezR25DuranR2579
6FRANCavalliR21McCarthyR25LatzR25BradishR21BurnsR5AntonacciR2574
7GoOsGriffinR25BradleyR25GoodmanR21BurlesonR9BaldwinR14WachaR2573
8BLOBSorianoR25LopezR20ScottR25LileR15SuarezR12ArandaR1468
9THARRasmussenR8GonzalesR25O'BrienR17WilliamsR11LeeR25MizeR1963
10FRSTTolleR25RouppR25WheelerR8RumfieldR25DurbinR17SkubalR160
11PEYT ▼ thinSanchezR9WooR8HendersonR25WetherholtR13LiberatoreR25CameronR1855
12RAGE ▼ thinEwingR25CamineroR5HerreraR20LeeR21BledayR25BibeeR1453

The bottom two rows are your trade marks — thin cupboards pay up for keepable pieces.

data: snap 2h · BP 47h · PL 2d · HL 12d · PSS 5h · BR 0h · FG 1h · proj 1h · closer 0h · oyster 22h · AAA-sc 11h · cookie ok
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