Miz-waukee’s Best — The Brandon League

Last updated Monday, September 21 · 01:04 PM ET

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Any player in the league universe · tap a result for the card.

☕ Morning Briefing

📊 MIZ holds a commanding lead at 1st with 102.5 roto points, 11.5 clear of Flex Seal at #2 — but two category edges deserve attention: Wins is dead-even with W. DORN (one swing costs you a roto point), and your ERA trails FRST by a razor-thin 0.01 (close it for +1).

⚾ Two MIZ stash guys provided pop yesterday: Leo Bernal (C, vs Nationals) went 1-for-3 with a HR, 2 RBI, and a walk, while Victor Mesa Jr. (LF, vs Red Sox) matched him with a HR, R, RBI, and a walk in 2-for-2 contact.

🔭 On the waiver wire, Sterlin Thompson (RI 87, FA) hit 2-for-3 with a HR, 2 RBI, and 2 BB at AAA vs Salt Lake Bees — a clean contact-plus-patience line worth tracking. The contact heat board also shows early-signal flickers from Michael Conforto (L7: 87/99, 0.555 xwOBAcon, 12 BBE) and Austin Wells (L7: 85/99, 0.546 xwOBAcon, 11 BBE) — small samples, but both trending.

⚠️ Two FRST roster hits to track in the standings race: Tarik Skubal landed on the bereavement list, and Robert Suarez is on a rehab assignment with Gwinnett — both owned by FRST, which could soften their ERA/WHIP and saves while giving MIZ a window to close that 0.01 ERA gap. Chase Burns (owned by FRAN) is on the 15-day IL with a right groin strain, less directly relevant but worth noting for the broader standings picture.

ELIGIBILITYT. Saggese 3B 9/10K. Schwarber 1B 8/10L. Bernal 1B 2/10

Your standing

1stof 12

102.5 roto pts +11.5 clear of 2nd

no change vs last update

Top Gaps

W (6.5)

categories below mid-pack

🎯 Category Pressure

Category ranks vs. the league.

Rank →

Δ to #1

1039

1122

🥇

294

330

🥇

RBI

983

1015

🥇

161

164

180

214

+50

AVG

.254

.255

.256

.260

+0.005

1305

1315

1511

+196

+16

107

+21

ERA

3.56

3.46

3.45

−0.01

WHIP

1.18

1.17

1.16

−0.01

📅 Yesterday's MIZ Box Scores (2026-09-20)

Loading box scores…

🏥 IL Rehab Tracker

IL players · rehab game logs.

On the IL, no rehab games yet: Kaelen Culpepper (IL10), Spencer Schwellenbach (IL60 · watch).

📊 League Activity (last 24h)

All adds, drops, and trades across the 12 teams.

Team	Move
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	+ Paul Blackburn
Phil Swift's Flex Seal	+ Jonah Cox \| − Mickey Moniak
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	+ Elvis Alvarado \| − Kodai Senga
Phil Swift's Flex Seal	+ Brett Bateman \| − Cole Young
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	+ Walbert Urena \| − Andrew Painter
Phil Swift's Flex Seal	+ Hao-Yu Lee \| − Connor Norby
Phil Swift's Flex Seal	+ Nathan Lukes \| − J.P. Crawford
Phil Swift's Flex Seal	+ Royce Lewis \| − Salvador Perez
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	+ Zebby Matthews \| − Ryan Johnson

🏆 League Standings

Current roto points · 10,000-sim projected finish. FAAB = acquisition budget remaining.

100.0% to win the league · proj finish 1.0 · 101.0 roto pts

#	Team	Pts	FAAB	Win%	Proj Pts	Range	Proj Rk
1	MIZ Miz-waukee’s Best	102.5	$0	100.0%	101.0	99–102	1.0
2	PEYT Phil Swift's Flex Seal	91.0	$12	0.0%	90.3	88–92	2.1
3	KRTZ Photogenic Nick Kurtz	88.0	$8	0.0%	88.5	87–90	2.8
4	FRAN Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	79.0	$20	0.0%	80.3	78–82	4.0
5	BLOB Camp MVP	69.5	$168	0.0%	70.7	69–73	5.0
6	GoOs I need Buck Showalter	60.5	$170	0.0%	59.2	57–62	6.4
7	KNIG Team Knighton	59.0	$132	0.0%	59.1	58–61	6.4
8	THAR Phil Mickeltits	58.0	$176	0.0%	56.7	56–58	7.8
9	FRST Worst2First	48.5	$154	0.0%	50.3	48–53	9.0
10	GARR The Boys of Summer	45.5	$155	0.0%	47.1	46–48	10.0
11	DORN Dorn and Associates LLC	42.5	$89	0.0%	42.8	41–44	11.0
12	RAGE Ramirez Against the Machine	36.0	$163	0.0%	33.9	32–35	12.0

10,000 sims · fixed seed · noise CV talent 0.12 / idio 0.06 / team-cat 0.08 · assumes ATC rest-of-season rates

Your categories · projected roto points

R 12.0HR 12.0RBI 12.0SB 9.0AVG 8.8W 5.0SV 9.0K 11.0ERA 11.2WHIP 11.0

Winnable — push here: SB, AVG, W, SV.

🚨 Today's Streaming Board

175 of 200 GS · should be 194 · 19 behindBehind pace — stream aggressively

025 left · ~29.2/wk to cap · proj 181200

⏳ BP's post is late — Verdict pill is running on our score + Pitcher List for now (BP joins the top-2 once it posts).

Top FA streamers today

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Blade Tidwell	vs MIN	SIT	—	3.7	#6	Passable matchup, arsenal quality kills confidence.
DJ Herz	@ DET	SITrust	—	—	#4	First start back; velocity up, strike-throwing concerns remain.

Your staff: 3.46 ERA / 1.17 WHIP · GS 175/200 — Behind pace — stream aggressively. Verdict = the best 2 of BP · our score · Pitcher List, averaged (low outlier dropped); before BP posts it's our score + PL. ⚠ = our matchup score dissented — eyeball that one. Tap a MIZ score for the reasoning.

Tomorrow · 1 of yours + top 5 FA · Tue 9/22 · BP not out yet, so pill = our score + Pitcher List

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Jared Jones	vs STL	AUTO START	—	7.7	#9	soft STL lineup, hot recent form, strong skills
Cristian Javier	@ SEA	START	—	5.7	#11	average SEA lineup, hot recent form, friendly park
Dustin May	@ PHI	DART	—	4.5	#14	average PHI lineup, short leash, hitter park
Drew Anderson	vs WSH	DART⚠ opener	—	6.1	#21	tough WSH lineup, hot recent form, strong skills
Anthony Kay	@ KC	DART	—	3.1	#13	soft KC lineup, short leash, shaky recent form
Andre Pallante	@ PIT	DART	—	3.4	#15	tough PIT lineup, shaky recent form

Openers filtered: Brady Basso

📼 Streamer Report Card

Does the Streaming Board actually work? Every pick it showed, frozen at pick time and graded off the real box score. Two scoreboards below: first our own calls — the Verdict ladder and MIZ (our matchup score, 0–10) — then the outside lists behind them, BP (RelieverRecon's daily BP Streamers post) and PL (Pitcher List's tier ranking). Grades are recomputed from raw lines on every build — the rubric can change, the history follows.

Last 30d · 357 starts graded over 30 days · GOOD+ 44% · BLOWUP 18% · agg ERA 4.44 · WHIP 1.37 · 4.4 K/start · 388 picks logged, 25 never started, 6 awaiting a box score — not graded

Grade mix · all 357 graded starts

GEM 57 GOOD 100 OK 135 BLOWUP 65

GEM6+ IP, ≤1 ER · or 6+ IP, 8+ K, ≤2 ERGOODquality start (6+ IP, ≤3 ER) · or 5+ IP, ≤2 EROKheld the line without earning GOODBLOWUP5+ ER · or under 4 IP with 4+ ERGOOD+ = GEM + GOOD. A pick whose starter never took the ball grades to nothing and leaves every rate below.

Cohort	n	GOOD+	BLOWUP	ERA
Q1 — Do our own calls work? · Verdict ladder + MIZ bands · live board rows only, nothing backfilled
Verdict · AUTO START	21	57%	19%	3.92
Verdict · START	53	57%	13%	4.24
Verdict · DART	88	42%	19%	4.67
Verdict · SIT	195	40%	19%	4.44
MIZ ≥ 5.0	116	53%	22%	4.33
MIZ 3.5–4.9	141	40%	17%	4.58
MIZ < 3.5	80	40%	18%	4.61
All live board picks	357	44%	18%	4.44
Q1 read — GOOD+ falls 57% · 57% · 42% · 40% down the rungs, but BLOWUP does not rise with it, and MIZ does not sort: 53% · 40% · 40% from the top band down.
Q2 — Which outside list earns the weight? · BP and PL graded on their own published lists · mostly rebuilt from git
PL · Auto Start	23	52%	22%	4.63
PL · Probably Start	56	52%	12%	4.14
PL · Questionable Start	100	49%	18%	4.34
PL · Do Not Start	148	39%	20%	4.64
BP · Auto thin	3	67%	0%	3.78
BP · Likely	14	57%	21%	4.17
All graded picks	357	44%	18%	4.44
Q2 read — against the 44% all-picks baseline, PL's top tiers clear it (52% · 52%) and BP's top tiers are too thin to call (67% · 57% on n=3 · n=14).

Rows are overlapping lenses on the same picks, not a partition — one start can be a PL Auto Start and a Verdict SIT at once, so they never sum to the headline; each group is read against its own baseline row.

⚠ Dissent check — n=4, too thin to read. Splits are picks the board started over our MIZ sit-call (vs 44% for all live picks).

Calibration — do our numbers mean anything? · full season, 2026-06-29→2026-09-20 · 1137 graded picks · MIZ on 588, BP on 230, Verdict on 618

The ladder above asks whether the tiers sort. This asks the harder question: is the number a probability — when the board says 7, do 70% of those starts come back GOOD+? Bins are equal-count and merge until every one clears n=15; the walk-forward rows are scored against a model that only ever saw earlier days.

Score bin	n	mean	GOOD+	95% CI
MIZ score → P(GOOD+) · our matchup score, 0–10 · live rows only · n=588
MIZ 0.5–3.3	134	2.7	41%	33%–50%
MIZ 3.4–4.0	108	3.7	43%	34%–52%
MIZ 4.1–4.8	119	4.4	49%	40%–58%
MIZ 4.9–5.6	116	5.2	51%	42%–60%
MIZ 5.7–8.9	111	6.4	56%	47%–65%
All MIZ-scored picks	588	—	48%	—
BP score → P(GOOD+) · RelieverRecon's published rating · includes git-backfilled rows · n=230
BP 4.6–6.6	48	6.1	35%	23%–50%
BP 6.7–7.3	44	7.0	52%	38%–66%
BP 7.4–7.7	47	7.5	45%	31%–59%
BP 7.8–8.4	47	8.1	47%	33%–61%
BP 8.5–10.0	44	9.1	43%	30%–58%
All BP-scored picks	230	—	44%	—
Verdict tier → P(GOOD+) · the consensus call itself · live rows only
AUTO START	37	—	62%	46%–76%
START	83	—	57%	46%–67%
DART	165	—	45%	38%–53%
SIT	333	—	44%	39%–50%

Out-of-sample	n	value	vs
Walk-forward probability · logistic on MIZ, refit daily on earlier days only · from 2026-08-05 · 46 days
Brier — our probability	524	0.250	lower is better
Brier — flat base rate to date	524	0.253	we win by 0.003
Brier — verdict-tier history	524	0.254	we win by 0.004
Log loss — our probability	524	0.692	lower is better
ECE — our probability	524	0.062	5 equal-count bins
ECE bins · predicted p vs what actually happened
said 31%–45%	105	41%	off by 0%
said 45%–49%	105	37%	off by 10%
said 49%–54%	105	48%	off by 4%
said 54%–59%	105	47%	off by 10%
said 59%–74%	104	57%	off by 6%
Verdict — usable with caveats: ECE 0.062 over n=524 out-of-sample picks (≤0.03 well calibrated · ≤0.07 usable with caveats); edges the flat base rate on Brier (0.250 vs 0.253, a thin margin; log-loss ~coin-flip).

🔥 Today's Hitter Streamers

Top 10 FA bats for today's slate · score = split vs SP hand (35%) + SP softness (35%) + bat quality (15%) + trailing 15 days (10%) + park (5%) · facing an elite arm fades the score hard (feast on weak pitchers).

#	Hitter	Matchup	Why	Legs	Score
1	CONSIDEREduardo Valencia1B · 3% own	vs WSH · Herz LHP	szn .342 xwOBAL15: 1.161 OPS (25 PA)L14 contact +2.1 (.416 xwOBAcon, 20 BBE)usually bats 5th0.952 OPS vs LHP (48 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	72
2	CONSIDERAndres Chaparro1B · 0% own	@ DET · Ryan RHP	szn .345 xwOBAL15: 0.905 OPS (30 PA)L14 contact -1.8 (.330 xwOBAcon, 17 BBE)usually bats 2nd (×1.10)short side vs RHP — 36% of AB0.923 OPS vs RHP (66 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	70
3	STARTDrew GilbertRF · 0% own	vs MIN · Matthews RHP	szn .332 xwOBAL15: 0.774 OPS (27 PA)L14 contact +3.7 (.452 xwOBAcon, 16 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)fills OF needbeats 1 of 2 eligible startersMatthews .324 allowed · avg SP0.777 OPS vs RHP (286 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	61
4	CONSIDERRyan JeffersC · 38% own	@ SF · Tidwell RHP	szn .349 xwOBAL15: 0.383 OPS (39 PA)L14 contact -3.1 (.301 xwOBAcon, 24 BBE)usually bats 3rd (×1.07)Tidwell .325 allowed · avg SP0.828 OPS vs RHP (192 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	55
5	CONSIDERAlejandro KirkC · 42% own	@ BAL · Baz RHP	szn .309 xwOBAL15: 0.950 OPS (38 PA)L14 contact -0.1 (.367 xwOBAcon, 29 BBE)usually bats 4th (×1.05)Baz .315 allowed · avg SP0.768 OPS vs RHP (181 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	52
6	CONSIDERYohendrick PinangoLF · 0% own	@ BAL · Baz RHP	szn .309 xwOBAfills OF needbeats 0 of 2 eligible startersBaz .315 allowed · avg SP0.747 OPS vs RHP (137 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	44
7	DEPTHTurner HillCF · 0% own	vs MIN · Matthews RHP	szn .323 xwOBAL15: 0.494 OPS (45 PA)L14 contact -2.3 (.319 xwOBAcon, 30 BBE)usually bats 2nd (×1.10)fills OF needbeats 0 of 2 eligible startersMatthews .324 allowed · avg SP0.72 OPS vs RHP (63 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	42
8	DEPTHVictor Bericoto1B · 0% own	vs MIN · Matthews RHP	szn .302 xwOBAusually bats 3rd (×1.07)fills OF needbeats 0 of 2 eligible startersshort side vs RHP — 43% of ABMatthews .324 allowed · avg SP0.677 OPS vs RHP (41 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	41
9	CONSIDERAndrew KniznerC · 0% own	vs MIN · Matthews RHP	szn .285 xwOBAL15: 0.693 OPS (30 PA)L14 contact -1.7 (.333 xwOBAcon, 23 BBE)usually bats 7th (×0.95)short side vs RHP — 39% of ABMatthews .324 allowed · avg SP	L15 bat SP L/R park	40
10	DEPTHAlan RodenLF · 0% own	@ SF · Tidwell RHP	szn .345 xwOBAusually bats 5thfills OF needbeats 0 of 2 eligible startersTidwell .325 allowed · avg SP0.622 OPS vs RHP (57 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	38

Tiers vs YOUR lineup tonight — median starter 78, worst Emmanuel Rodriguez (48). AUTO START = beats the median eligible starter.

TBD starter = neutral SP + split legs until the probable posts (refresh upgrades it). Splits need 30+ AB vs that hand. IL bats are excluded; bats who rarely start against tonight's hand are dropped. Doubleheaders: legs average the ends he plays, and everyday bats get up to a ×1.50 volume boost. Lineup slot scales the score by expected PAs from the bat's usual spot (leadoff ×1.12 … 9-hole ×0.90, modal over the last ~10 played days) — his typical order, not today's card, since that posts after waivers run.

🎯 FA Hitters — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Kyle Schwarber

1Rafael Flores Jr.1B · Pit · 2.6%HEATER

87/99 heat on trusted 29-BBE sample, elite .524 xwOBAcon, 2 HR last 7 — dominant contact signal

Heat 87 · 29 BBE · ATC 13 PA · 0 HR · 0 SB · 0.234 · L7 0.529 · 2 HR · sim +0.0 pts

2Ty France

1B · SD · 16.9% · BEST VALUE

37-BBE trusted heat, .405/.400 BA streak, 7 RBI last 7, most volume of any candidate

Heat 71 · 37 BBE · ATC 25 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.259 · L7 0.4 · 1 HR · sim +0.0 pts

3Xander Bogaerts

SS · SD · 19.0% · CATEGORY FIT

SB+AVG both live for MIZ; Bogaerts offers both with legit 104 wRC+ projection and 8 R last 7

L7 flare 79 · ATC 24 PA · 1 HR · 1 SB · 0.260 · L7 0.381 · 1 HR · sim +0.0 pts

4Connor Norby

3B · Col · 3.3% · CATEGORY FIT

2 SB last 7, Coors boost, 29-BBE heat at 72 — best SB upside of remaining options

Heat 72 · 29 BBE · ATC 18 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.254 · L7 0.375 · 0 HR · sim +0.0 pts

5Mike Yastrzemski

RF · Atl · 1.2% · UPSIDE

3 HR, 6 RBI last 7 in a lineup upgrade to Atl; power production with no contact-quality caveat

ATC 16 PA · 0 HR · 0 SB · 0.227 · L7 0.278 · 3 HR · sim +0.0 pts

Passed on: Eduardo Valencia has the second-highest heat score (81/99) and a scorching .500 BA but projects only 9 PA rest-of-season — pure playing-time risk kills his value.

💪 Hitter List Rankings

PL Top 150 hitters · your bats + top FAs.

On Hitter List · 17 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Hitter	MLB	Pos	Chg	AVG	xwOBA	HR	SB	RoS	Chu’s Take
16	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	DH	+3	.234	.365	45	3	123
18	Randy Arozarena	SEA	OF	-	.279	.348	26	23	127
21	Miguel Vargas	CHW	1B/3B	+19	.251	.381	33	20	116	Miguel Vargas has returned to the levels we saw early this summer and that really revs my engine. He’s one of those players who has shown…
36	Yandy Díaz	TB	1B	+3	.292	.347	22	3	122
46	Zach Neto	LAA	SS	+11	.237	.311	26	21	111	Zach Neto has been a monster over the last nine games, with 17 hits, 18 combined runs and RBI (a seven RBI night helps), and seven extra-…
59	Jac Caglianone	KC	1B/OF	+13	.282	.357	23	7	108	Jac Caglianone still hits a lot of grounders, but not quite as many as before (the rolling 15-game rate is a hair below 50%) and the stri…
72	Ty France	SD	1B	+12	.301	.334	21	1	108
85	Cole Carrigg	COL	SS/OF	-22	.271	.311	10	11	66	The strikeouts have creeped up on Cole Carrigg , up to 32% over his last 11 games (which is, conveniently, exactly 50 plate appearances).…
90	Salvador Perez	KC	C/1B	+9	.227	.310	19	1	93
106	Luis Robert Jr.	BAL	OF	+UR	.221	.321	11	2	100
109	Mickey Gasper	BOS	C/1B	+UR	.255	.355	9	0	104	Mickey Gasper — Fantastic mustache, first of all. Second of all, the batted ball data suggests what’s happening of late is very real, tho…
115	Kaelen Culpepper	MIN	SS	+UR	.275	.298	3	1	90	Kaelen Culpepper — Culpepper puts a lot of balls in play and it’s working out so far. The BABIP Gods can be cruel, though. The 55 point g…
119	Rafael Flores Jr.	PIT	C/1B	+UR	.286	.362	10	0	82
133	Connor Norby	COL	1B/2B/3B	+UR	.242	.306	7	10	90	Connor Norby still has huge contact issues but the guy can hit the ball hard in the air and plays for Colorado so stream away.
135	Henry Bolte	ATH	OF	+UR	.272	.317	11	21	93	Henry Bolte is leading off again and should get some games in Sacramento soon, if you need a streamer.
137	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	BAL	1B/3B	+UR	.267	.336	10	1	92
143	Alejandro Kirk	TOR	C	+UR	.282	.309	10	1	114
145	Tyler Stephenson	CIN	C	-33	.246	.328	15	0	94
146	Ryan Jeffers	MIN	C	-29	.255	.349	14	1	117
TS	Bryce Eldridge	SF	1B	—	.269	.359	17	1	99	Bryce Eldridge (1B, SFG) — Power prospects can often take a while to really shine.
TS	Walker Jenkins	Min	OF	—	.210	.309	3	1	102	Walker Jenkins (OF, MIN) — Jenkins will get the call today after a white-hot month in the triple-A. He’s worth a scoop in most leagues, E…
UR	Emmanuel Rodriguez	Min	OF	—	.182	.320	1	0	95	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	James Wood	Wsh	OF	—	.265	.410	30	21	126	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Leo Bernal	StL	C	—	.311	.379	4	0	84	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Richie Palacios	TB	2B/OF	—	.234	.310	10	15	83	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Thomas Saggese	StL	2B/SS/OF	—	.247	.314	4	4	83	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Victor Mesa Jr.	TB	OF	—	.251	.333	14	9	89	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.

🔥 Heat Board

Hottest ACTIVE free-agent bats by contact quality, 9/7–9/20 · Heat = percentile vs all MLB bats over the same window (xwOBAcon 30 · EV 20 · Brl 20 · HH 15 · K 10 · BB 5) · min 15 BBE to qualify (smaller samples live in the HM rail) · IL excluded.

Rafael Flores Jr.

1B · Pit · 2.6% own · xwOBAcon .524 · EV 93.3 · Brl 17.2% · 29 BBE

▲ .150 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.286	10	22	16	0
L14	.436	3	5	4	0

Eduardo Valencia

1B · Det · 3.1% own · xwOBAcon .416 · EV 93.0 · Brl 10.0% · 20 BBE

▲ .137 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.339	6	18	19	0
L14	.476	0	0	5	0

Agustin Ramirez

C · Mia · 32.4% own · xwOBAcon .516 · EV 94.6 · Brl 12.5% · 16 BBE

▲ .085 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.235	5	23	29	4
L14	.320	2	5	3	0

Brett Baty

3B · NYM · 2.7% own · xwOBAcon .409 · EV 94.0 · Brl 13.0% · 23 BBE

▲ .122 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.235	10	52	50	5
L14	.357	1	5	4	0

Nathaniel Lowe

1B · Cle · 1.4% own · xwOBAcon .401 · EV 91.6 · Brl 13.0% · 23 BBE

▼ .003 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.253	17	59	38	0
L14	.250	2	6	3	0

Connor Norby

3B · Col · 3.3% own · xwOBAcon .430 · EV 90.5 · Brl 13.8% · 29 BBE

▲ .133 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.242	7	32	36	10
L14	.375	1	5	6	2

Brady House

3B · Wsh · 1.0% own · xwOBAcon .352 · EV 93.7 · Brl 9.1% · 22 BBE

▼ .022 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.244	10	45	41	3
L14	.222	0	4	3	0

Drew Gilbert

RF · SF · 0.5% own · xwOBAcon .452 · EV 86.7 · Brl 12.5% · 16 BBE

▼ .020 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.231	10	40	50	2
L14	.211	2	4	5	1

Ty France

1B · SD · 16.9% own · xwOBAcon .395 · EV 92.3 · Brl 8.1% · 37 BBE

▲ .104 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.301	21	70	56	1
L14	.405	1	8	6	0

Dylan Crews

RF · Wsh · 5.7% own · xwOBAcon .463 · EV 87.7 · Brl 13.9% · 36 BBE

▲ .040 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.222	12	43	50	9
L14	.262	2	7	4	0

Honorable mention · hottest L7 (9/14–9/20), not yet on the board · tiny samples — peek, don't trust

Michael Conforto

LF · ChC

.555 xwOBAcon

12 BBE · .353 L7

Austin Wells

C · NYY

.546 xwOBAcon

11 BBE · .333 L7

Pavin Smith

1B · Ari

.487 xwOBAcon

11 BBE · .267 L7

Xander Bogaerts

SS · SD

.482 xwOBAcon

16 BBE · .381 L7

Andres Chaparro

1B · Wsh

.421 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .375 L7

Alex Freeland

3B · LAD

.388 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .333 L7

🎯 FA Pitchers — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Andres Munoz

1Tyler MahleSP · Atl · 40.6%HEATER

Elite 92nd-percentile suppression on 37 BBE; safest ratio-protecting GS add with cap room

Supp 92 · 37 BBE · ATC 6.0 IP · 0 W · 6 K · 4.05 · 1.27 · sim -0.0 pts

2Freddy Peralta

SP · TB · 83.3% · BEST VALUE

86th suppression percentile on 47 BBE trusted sample; best K upside among SP options

Supp 86 · 47 BBE · ATC 8.0 IP · 0 W · 8 K · 4.03 · 1.22 · sim -0.0 pts

3Dylan Smith

RP · SF · 0.3% · CATEGORY FIT

Closer role confirmed, 64th suppression on 22 BBE; SV gap to #3 is 15, adds saves safely

Supp 64 · 22 BBE · ATC 2.0 IP · 0 W · 2 K · 3.84 · 1.31 · 1 SV · Closer · sim -0.0 pts

4Juan Morillo

RP · Ari · 3.1% · UPSIDE

Closer role, 84th suppression percentile but only 12 BBE; saves upside with ratio-safe profile

Supp 84 · 12 BBE · ATC 2.0 IP · 0 W · 2 K · 3.83 · 1.36 · Closer · sim -0.0 pts

5Rico Garcia

RP · Bal · 11.7% · FLOOR

Closer role in Baltimore, strongest confirmed suppression among RP options at 75th percentile

Supp 75 · 16 BBE · ATC 2.0 IP · 0 W · 2 K · 4.22 · 1.30 · Closer · sim -0.0 pts

Passed on: Ben Joyce has a closer role and decent ATC ERA but 16th-percentile suppression with 0.474 xwOBAcon on 16 BBE signals real contact-quality risk that threatens MIZ's razor-thin ERA/WHIP cushion.

⚾ Pitcher List Rankings

PL Top 100 SP · your arms + top FAs.

On Pitcher List · 6 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Pitcher	MLB	Chg	ERA	xERA	K/9	RoS	Pollack’s Take
1	Jacob Misiorowski	MIL	-	1.86	2.08	13.1	3.40	Like a base set Charizard, Misiorowski’s not gonna stop being dope.
9	Blake Snell	LAD	+7	1.86	2.17	12.1	3.31	#HotSnellSummer is in full swing.
10	Dylan Cease	TOR	-1	2.40	2.92	12.7	3.45	Like a perfect burger without the condiments to hit all your macros, Cease gives you everything except for a stable WHIP due to his infla…
20	Kyle Harrison	MIL	+8	4.23	4.04	10.9	4.19	With a dominant outing, he muted our concerns, but Harrison’s still displaying decreased velocity and not commanding as well as he did in…
22	Eury Pérez	MIA	-4	4.17	4.27	9.6	3.91	Pérez has the stuff to be an ace, but there’s polishing to do in the command and game plan departments to unlock his full potential.
29	Sean Burke	CHW	-4	3.40	3.87	9.6	4.43	Burke’s hot streak has come to a brief pause, but he’s still doing everything he’s supposed to with elite four-seamers upstairs and suppo…
30	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	-4	3.91	3.84	6.5	4.17	Baseball’s premier innings eater hasn’t ruined his appetite.
38	Jacob Lopez	ATH	+6	5.68	3.68	8.3	4.55	It’s the 2025 hot streak all over again. Enjoy the ride, ya’ll!
39	Dustin May	MIL	-	4.61	4.42	8.8	4.18	May got Singled Out in a disastrous performance, but his stuff is still dope, and his new situation is ideal. Higher win chance, great de…
43	Andrew Painter	PHI	+UR	5.59	4.51	8.0	4.71	From off The List to inside the Top 50, Painter has stolen our hearts with an improved heater (97+ mph with 17-18″ iVB) and emphasis on r…
45	Peter Lambert	HOU	-4	3.70	3.68	8.8	4.61	Lambert’s stumble last time was a product of being Singled Out . He’s been reliable all year, but we should be recognizing that Holly is …
46	Jared Jones	PIT	-8	4.17	3.45	10.8	3.97	The stuff is top-tier, but he’s still shaking off the Tommy John surgery rust with his command and the tight leash the Pirates have on hi…
54	Joey Cantillo	CLE	-8	3.74	4.07	9.8	4.05	Efficiency is a problem, but Cantillo is doing everything we want. More curveballs, faster fastballs, and supportive cutters. Throw more …
56	Shane Bieber	TOR	+14	4.37	6.00	7.1	—	Bieber is back in business. His heater looked awesome in The Trop, and his offspeed pitches are being the CSW monsters they need to be to…
57	Tyler Mahle	ATL	-	3.81	3.90	8.3	4.05	Mahle’s command and velocity have been stellar since returning from the IL in late June. He’s got an even better situation pitching in At…
58	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	-	3.72	3.87	6.1	4.67	Despite what the line suggests, Pfaadt’s last start wasn’t an end to his Vargas Rule . It was a textbook Careful, Icarus with a three-run…

🔒 Closer Chart

Save targets · roles + regression flags.

BLUEEntrenched closer (highest leverage)GREENNext man up / committee pieceYELLOWSetup, 8th-inning leverageORANGESpeculative / lower priorityMAGENTAHigh-upside future / multi-inning

	Pitcher	Tm	Role	SV	SVHD	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K/9	Rtg / Own
Yours on the chart
	Andrés Muñoz leg - MRI	Seattle Mariners	CL	28	29	57.3	4.24	1.22	3.27	14.0	5.0 · —
—	Louis Varland	Toronto Blue Jays	CL	34	39	77.0	1.29	1.01	2.40 ↑	11.1	5.0 · —
Top 5 FA closers (by team rating)
—	Rico Garcia	Baltimore Orioles	CL	9	27	65.0	3.18	1.00	3.01	9.1	4.0 · 12%
—	Ben Joyce	Los Angeles Angels	CL	5	7	15.3	4.11	1.11	3.84	10.6	4.0 · 5%
—	Kodai Senga	New York Mets	CL	7	7	60.3	7.46	1.67	5.44 ↓	10.9	4.0 · 10%
—	Steven Cruz HLR	Kansas City Royals	CL	7	12	57.7	4.37	1.27	4.07	9.8	3.5 · 1%
—	Michael Petersen	Miami Marlins	CL	1	26	62.7	3.16	1.12	3.40	11.2	3.0 · 2%

ERA cell: green <3.00 · red >4.50. xERA arrow: ↓ ERA likely to fall (buy) · ↑ ERA likely to rise (sell). Triggers when |xERA−ERA| ≥ 1.00.

✂️ Cut List

Drop priority · value, form, pedigree, role.

56	Richie Palacios OF · TB low TV (2); UFDA — easy to drop; BUT SB specialist (15 SB on 329 AB); weak RoS (83 wRC+) sim cost ~0	TV 2 UFDA
45	Jared Jones SP · Pit low TV (19); UFDA — easy to drop; BUT solid keeper sim cost ~0	TV 19 UFDA
34	Blake Snell SP · LAD mid TV (42); injury status: DTD; BUT strong RoS (3.31 ERA) sim cost ~0	TV 42 Rd 8
28	Yandy Diaz 1B · TB ice cold recently; BUT strong RoS (122 wRC+) sim cost ~0	TV 73 Rd 9
20	Sandy Alcantara SP · Mia mid TV (58); BUT solid keeper sim cost ~0	TV 58 Rd 14

Higher score = drop sooner — top 5 by score, and only 8+ reaches the board, so the number has no ceiling and is only comparable within this list. The sim line is a roto-sim marginal (cut vs. keep on one shared set of draws), not a measured cost. Pedigree + named closers shielded.

🌱 Stash List

PL's top prospects · grab them cheap.

Hitters

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 24: Top 10 Hitting Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + PSS + PFV + age + 40-man + path.

16 available

S. Thompson

OF · COL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

16·21·.312

J. Tibbs III

OF · LAD · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

30·10·.287

H. Mendez

OF · MIN · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

12·5·.281

S. Walcott

3B/SS · TEX · AA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

10·13·.325

M. Anderson

2B · DET · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

17·6·.302

R. Clifford

1B · NYM · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

18·8·.180

B. Davidson

OF · SFG · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

September

Szn

29·20·.290

C. Ingle

C · CLE · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

20·2·.286

S. King

SS/2B/3B · WSN · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

21·15·.303

C. Cannarella

OF · MIA · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

15·21·.324

J. Long

1B · CHC · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

16·3·.275

K. Alderman

OF · MIA · AAA · 23 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

19·10·.254

E. Arroyo

SS · CIN · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

15·14·.276

D. Crisantes

2B/3B · ARI · AAA · 21 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

10·0·.292

R. Velazquez

1B/C · CLE · AA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

29·2·.290

T. Troy

SS · ARI · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

9·10·.277

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

Pitchers

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 24: Top 10 Pitching Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + L3 quality + FV + age + 40-man + path.

24 available

O. Murphy

SP · ATL · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

129K·3.70

T. Johnson

SP · TBR · AAA · 24 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

91K·3.22

B. Hopkins

SP · TBR · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

126K·5.20

B. Mautz

SP · STL · AAA · 24 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

106K·4.20

H. Smith

SP · CHW · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

August 1st

Szn

125K·3.33

L. Perales

SP · WSN · AAA · 23 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

108K·4.10

A. Kelly

SP · PIT · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

80K·4.34

C. Seymour

SP · SFG · AAA · 27 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

91K·4.13

K. Curtis

SP · PIT · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

118K·4.86

R. Snelling

SP · MIA · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

46K·2.38

D. Davalillo

SP · TEX · AAA · 24 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

111K·4.59

B. Garrett

SP · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

June 1st

Szn

120K·3.67

T. McDougal

SP · CHW · AAA · 23 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

53K·4.86

M. Bratt

SP · ARI · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

90K·3.95

E. Rodriguez

SP · NYY · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

126K·3.05

T. Sykora

P · WSN · AA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

—

PFV

ETA

'26

Szn

—

R. Ryan

SP · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

47K·4.39

C. Dana

SP · LAA · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

86K·5.52

R. Sloan

SP · SEA · AA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

128K·3.73

C. Lagrange

SP · NYY · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

July 1st

Szn

85K·4.48

C. Crow

SP · MIL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

112K·3.85

T. Gibson

SP · BAL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

116K·5.13

J. Wenninger

SP · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

123K·4.54

L. Braun

SP · ATL · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

120K·4.16

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

🔭 7 not a 2026 factor — Jackson Ferris · Jurrangelo Cijntje · Jackson Wolf · Bryce Mayer · Jonathan Santucci · Jaxon Wiggins · Karson Milbrandt

💼 Trades

Buy-low targets · league trade history.

Top Buy-Lows

Rebound candidates · suggested offers.

Hitters

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Juan Soto RF · NYM · GARR · jregarris +1.2σ buy-low · RF — fits a need · BA 0.273 / xBA 0.295 · xwOBA 0.412	100%	158 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Kyle Schwarber DH · comparable value (TV 100 vs target 100)
📈 BUY-LOW	Cal Raleigh C · Sea · KNIG · TKHOO +1.7σ buy-low · C — modest fit · BA 0.182 / xBA 0.190 · xwOBA 0.312	85%	129 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Cole Carrigg CF + Joe Ryan SP · two-piece package (TV 83 vs target 82)
📈 BUY-LOW	JJ Bleday CF · Cin · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.2σ buy-low · CF — fits a need · BA 0.215 / xBA 0.239 · xwOBA 0.340	19%	100 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Cole Carrigg CF · comparable value (TV 12 vs target 17)
↑ mild buy	Taylor Ward LF · Sea · GoOs · My Best Guys +0.8σ buy-low · LF — fits a need · BA 0.222 / xBA 0.240 · xwOBA 0.333	56%	120 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Sandy Alcantara SP · comparable value (TV 58 vs target 60)
📈 BUY-LOW	Heriberto Hernandez LF · Mia · FRAN · francisw789 +1.1σ buy-low · LF — fits a need · BA 0.228 / xBA 0.245 · xwOBA 0.347	8%	99 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Henry Bolte RF + +$4 FAAB · comparable value (TV 15 vs target 23)
↑ mild buy	Kyle Stowers LF · Mia · KNIG · TKHOO +0.7σ buy-low · LF — fits a need · BA 0.237 / xBA 0.224 · xwOBA 0.324	27%	111 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Jared Jones SP + +$4 FAAB · comparable value (TV 19 vs target 27)
↑ mild buy	Ian Happ LF · ChC · FRAN · francisw789 +0.8σ buy-low · LF — fits a need · BA 0.221 / xBA 0.208 · xwOBA 0.316	69%	109 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Jac Caglianone RF · comparable value (TV 37 vs target 41)
↑ mild buy	Dominic Canzone RF · Sea · GARR · jregarris +0.5σ buy-low · RF — fits a need · BA 0.261 / xBA 0.270 · xwOBA 0.357	13%	115 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Jac Caglianone RF · comparable value (TV 37 vs target 34)
↑ mild buy	Jarren Duran LF · Bos · RAGE · glhoward40 +0.8σ buy-low · LF — fits a need · BA 0.204 / xBA 0.234 · xwOBA 0.298	64%	100 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Eury Perez SP + +$4 FAAB · comparable value (TV 50 vs target 57)
↑ mild buy	Heliot Ramos LF · NYY · DORN · Lambertmt48 +0.7σ buy-low · LF — fits a need · BA 0.241 / xBA 0.254 · xwOBA 0.329	9%	105 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Cole Carrigg CF · comparable value (TV 12 vs target 17)

Pitchers

No qualifying SP buy-lows today.

League History

Completed trades · frozen grade at the deal + live grade now.

Side	Sent	At deal	Now	Trend
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Andy Pages	A- +7	A+ +46	▲ up
Camp MVP	Pete Crow-Armstrong	C -7	F -46	▼ down
Team Knighton ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Team Knighton	Matthew Boyd	F -22	F -23
Camp MVP	Kenley Jansen	A+ +22	A+ +23
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Worst2First 2026-08-10
Miz-waukee’s Best	Charlie Condon, Payton Tolle	A+ +50	C -5	▼ down
Worst2First	Dylan Cease	F -50	A- +5	▲ up
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Dorn and Associates LLC 2026-08-05
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Travis Bazzana, George Lombard Jr., Nolan McLean	A+ +144	A+ +106	▼ down
Dorn and Associates LLC	Jackson Chourio, Jhoan Duran, Brice Turang, David Bednar	F -144	F -106	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-07-31
Miz-waukee’s Best	Samuel Basallo, Kade Anderson	A- +8	C -6	▼ down
Ramirez Against the Machine	Blake Snell	C -8	A- +6	▲ up
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Team Knighton 2026-07-23
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Jo Adell, Jacob deGrom	F -49	F -64	▼ down
Team Knighton	Trea Turner	A+ +49	A+ +64	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine ⇄ Miz-waukee’s Best 2026-07-19
Ramirez Against the Machine	Sandy Alcantara	F -42	F -29	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best	Josh Jung	A+ +42	A+ +29	▼ down
I need Buck Showalter ⇄ Hit the Damn Ball You Bums 2026-06-19
I need Buck Showalter	Nasim Nunez	A+ +28	A +12	▼ down
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Justin Wrobleski	F -28	D -12	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ The Boys of Summer 2026-06-12
Miz-waukee’s Best	Chandler Simpson	A +10	D -8	▼ down
The Boys of Summer	$30 FAAB	D -10	A +8	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-05-01
Miz-waukee’s Best	Kenley Jansen	—	A- +6
Camp MVP	$30 FAAB	A- +3	C -6	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-04-22
Miz-waukee’s Best	Nathan Eovaldi, $70 FAAB	—	F -41
Ramirez Against the Machine	Jac Caglianone	A+ +60	A+ +41	▼ down

🔻 Sell-High — My Roster

Surface line outrunning the underlying skill — trade-value peaks. σ = his surface-stat z-score minus his Statcast-skill z-score, both against the league reference for his side — bigger σ = further ahead of the skill. Pair with Buy-Low Targets.

Verdict	Player	Own	Surface vs expected	Contact	2027 keeper
↓ SHOP	Cole Carrigg CF · Col 0.76σ sell-high · CF · BA 0.271 / xBA 0.245 · xwOBA 0.311 — test the market, don't force it	15%	BA 0.271 / xBA 0.245 +.026 wOBA 0.343 / xwOBA 0.311 +.032	HH 36.5% · Brl/PA 3.7%	25th · +5 rds vs mkt
↓ SHOP	Yandy Diaz 1B · TB 0.49σ sell-high · 1B · BA 0.292 / xBA 0.280 · xwOBA 0.347 — test the market, don't force it	92%	BA 0.292 / xBA 0.280 +.012 wOBA 0.351 / xwOBA 0.347 +.004	HH 48.1% · Brl/PA 5.4%	7th · +1 rd vs mkt
↓ SHOP	Henry Bolte RF · Oak 0.48σ sell-high · RF · BA 0.272 / xBA 0.245 · xwOBA 0.317 — test the market, don't force it	11%	BA 0.272 / xBA 0.245 +.027 wOBA 0.337 / xwOBA 0.317 +.020	HH 48.3% · Brl/PA 4.7%	25th · +5 rds vs mkt
HOLD — KEEPER PRICE	Louis Varland RP · Tor 0.48σ sell-high · RP · ERA 1.29 vs xERA 2.40 — only move for keeper-grade return	86%	ERA 1.29 / xERA 2.40 -1.11	Brl 3.8% allowed	22nd · +16 rds vs mkt

👥 Your Roster

Your roster · news + buy/sell signals.

News (last 24h)

Player news · last 24h.

Bryce Eldridge Fantasy baseball news: Yesavage returns as Toronto seeks a late-season miracle
Mon 09-21 02:20 PM
All of the important fantasy spin and actionable takeaways resulting from the latest baseball news.
James Wood MLB betting tips for Monday: Will Washington's James Wood wake up?
Mon 09-21 11:32 AM
All of the odds, recommended prop bets and trends in baseball for Monday, September 21.
Walker Jenkins Fantasy baseball lineup advice for Monday: Can managers trust Shane Baz?
Mon 09-21 11:24 AM
Everything you need to know to set your fantasy baseball lineups for Monday's MLB action.
Leo Bernal Bernal, Herrera homer in eighth inning to help Cardinals beat Nationals 5-3
Sun 09-20 08:57 PM
— Iván Herrera hit a pair of home runs, and Leo Bernal also homered as the St. Louis Cardinals scored three runs in the eighth inning to come from behind and beat the Washington Nationals 5-3 on Sunday.

Leverage Buys/Sells

Buy/sell windows · surface vs. underlying.

Hitters

Player	Pos	MLB	BA	xBA	wOBA	xwOBA	Brl%	Own%	Signal
James Wood	LF	Wsh	0.265	0.274	0.387	0.410	100.0	99.0	📈 BUY-LOW
Kyle Schwarber	DH	Phi	0.234	0.236	0.371	0.365	98.0	99.5	📈 BUY-LOW
Miguel Vargas	3B	ChW	0.251	0.265	0.366	0.381	90.0	95.2	📈 BUY-LOW
Bryce Eldridge DTD	1B	SF	0.269	0.260	0.361	0.359	76.0	11.8	↑ mild buy
Zach Neto	SS	LAA	0.237	0.212	0.332	0.311	74.0	60.3	fair
Jac Caglianone	RF	KC	0.282	0.280	0.355	0.357	89.0	43.4	fair
Randy Arozarena	LF	Sea	0.279	0.259	0.375	0.348	51.0	94.5	fair
Cole Carrigg	CF	Col	0.271	0.245	0.343	0.311	26.0	15.2	↓ mild fade
Walker Jenkins	CF	Min	0.210	0.225	0.306	0.309	—	6.2	fair
Henry Bolte	RF	Oak	0.272	0.245	0.337	0.317	51.0	11.4	↓ mild fade
Yandy Diaz	1B	TB	0.292	0.280	0.351	0.347	45.0	92.0	↓ mild fade
Kaelen Culpepper IL10	SS	Min	0.275	0.245	0.326	0.298	—	3.7	fair
Emmanuel Rodriguez	CF	Min	0.182	0.238	0.254	0.320	—	0.8	fair
Leo Bernal	C	StL	0.311	0.303	0.376	0.379	—	4.2	fair
Victor Mesa Jr.	LF	TB	0.251	0.247	0.355	0.333	—	10.7	fair
Thomas Saggese	2B	StL	0.247	0.243	0.299	0.314	—	8.7	fair
Richie Palacios	LF	TB	0.234	0.248	0.317	0.310	17.0	2.7	fair

Pitchers

Pitcher	Pos	MLB	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K-BB%	xwOBA-a	Brl%-a	Own%	Signal
Andres Munoz DTD	RP	Sea	57.3	4.24	1.22	3.27	27.1	0.280	8.7	78.0	↑ mild buy
Jared Jones	SP	Pit	90.7	4.17	1.19	3.45	20.5	0.287	7.6	27.6	↑ mild buy
Blake Snell DTD	SP	LAD	38.7	1.86	1.09	2.17	22.9	0.228	1.1	83.2	↑ mild buy
Joe Ryan	SP	Min	138.7	4.22	1.18	3.73	20.6	0.298	10.1	87.0	fair
Sandy Alcantara	SP	Mia	212.0	3.91	1.24	3.84	10.5	0.302	5.5	83.8	fair
Jacob Misiorowski	SP	Mil	169.3	1.86	0.80	2.08	31.7	0.223	3.7	99.3	fair
Eury Perez	SP	Mia	149.0	4.17	1.28	4.27	14.6	0.317	10.5	67.4	fair
Dylan Cease DTD	SP	Tor	169.0	2.40	1.10	2.92	23.5	0.265	5.5	97.0	fair
Louis Varland	RP	Tor	77.0	1.29	1.01	2.40	23.7	0.240	3.8	86.4	↓ mild fade

📰 MLB News — Top Fantasy Stories

🔒 Keepers — 2027 Slate

Peter's model (additive): rounds-saved (cost arbitrage spine) + current skill + career-grade pedigree + sample stability + Statcast over/under-performance trend, with age-decline (33+), closer/RP, and top-30 talent adjustments. Heavy on bargain-hunting.
Claude's model (multiplicative dynasty index): EFV(2027) = (3 + skill + upside) × age_mult × pos_mult; score = EFV − cost_replacement − mookie-lock. Compounds age curve and position scarcity.
Sorted by consensus rank (average of both models). MLB-inactive players surfaced in 🚑 Return Watch below.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict	Notes
1.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	21st	#1 (+23.5)	#1 (+42.1)	S · $42	UFDA-G FV 55
2.0	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	22nd	#2 (+21.6)	#2 (+27.1)	S · $27
3.0	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	25th	#3 (+19.6)	#3 (+15.8)	A · $16	UFDA
4.0	Bryce Eldridge	1B · 20yo	25th	#4 (+16.2)	#4 (+14.4)	A · $14	UFDA FV 55
5.0	Henry Bolte	RF · 21yo	25th	#5 (+14.9)	#5 (+14.4)	A · $14	UFDA FV 40
6.5	Jac Caglianone	RF · 22yo	21st	#7 (+10.1)	#6 (+6.8)	B · $7	UFDA-G FV 55
7.0	Zach Neto	SS · 25yo	10th	#6 (+11.0)	#8 (+4.5)	C · $4
7.5	Randy Arozarena	LF · 31yo	4th	#8 (+9.7)	#7 (+5.8)	B · $6

NEW UFDA cap: Peter 3/3 · Claude 3/3 · BOTH = top 8 in both models. Peter only = his model values cost surplus more; Claude only = mine values projection / position scarcity more.

Updated Mon Sep 21 · 1:04 PM ET

🌍 League-Wide Top Keepers

Top 10 keepers · all 12 teams · both models. Yours in green.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	Team	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict
2.5	Jordan Walker	RF · 24yo	GARR	25th	#1 (+26.8)	#4 (+38.7)	S · $39
3.0	Bryan Baker	RP · 31yo	DORN	25th	#3 (+24.1)	#3 (+38.7)	S · $39
3.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	MIZ	21st	#4 (+23.5)	#2 (+42.1)	S · $42
4.0	Carson Benge	CF · 22yo	KRTZ	25th	#2 (+24.6)	#6 (+29.9)	S · $30
4.0	Cam Schlittler	SP · 24yo	KRTZ	19th	#7 (+20.7)	#1 (+49.5)	S · $50
6.5	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	MIZ	22nd	#6 (+21.6)	#7 (+27.1)	S · $27
8.0	Gabriel Moreno	C · 26yo	FRAN	25th	#5 (+23.1)	— (+18.5)	S · $18
8.0	Drew Rasmussen	SP · 30yo	THAR	8th	— (+14.9)	#5 (+34.7)	S · $35
9.5	Otto Lopez	SS · 27yo	BLOB	20th	#8 (+19.6)	— (+16.4)	A · $16
9.5	Cristopher Sanchez	SP · 29yo	PEYT	9th	— (+18.2)	#8 (+26.9)	S · $27
10.0	Payton Tolle	SP · 22yo	FRST	25th	#9 (+19.6)	— (+15.8)	A · $16
10.0	Bryan Woo	SP · 26yo	PEYT	8th	— (+14.6)	#9 (+26.0)	S · $26
10.5	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	MIZ	25th	#10 (+19.6)	— (+15.8)	A · $16
10.5	Zack Wheeler	SP · 36yo	FRST	8th	— (+14.6)	#10 (+24.3)	S · $24

Updated Mon Sep 21 · 1:04 PM ET

🏚️ Keeper Cupboards

Every team's six best keepers · shade = dual-model consensus value. Cupboard score weights the top four heavily (the slots that get kept), keepers 5–8 taper. 100 = league's best cupboard.

Team	K1	K2	K3	K4	K5	K6	Cupboard
1MIZ	MisiorowskiR21	VarlandR22	VargasR25	EldridgeR25	BolteR25	CaglianoneR21	100
2KRTZ	BengeR25	SchlittlerR19	SanojaR25	McGonigleR17	IIR5	ColeR11	84
3DORN	BakerR25	RiceR20	McLeanR20	LaraR25	BazzanaR25	AnthonyR18	80
4THAR	RasmussenR8	BauersR25	O'BrienR17	Jr.R16	KeaschallR21	LeeR25	75
5PEYT	SanchezR9	HendersonR25	WooR8	LeeR25	ClarkR22	ArenadoR25	74
6GARR	WalkerR25	CanzoneR25	GrayR7	MessickR18	DinglerR22	SimpsonR9	71
7FRAN	MorenoR25	LatzR25	McCarthyR25	CavalliR21	LoweR8	BichetteR4	71
8BLOB	LopezR20	LileR15	SorianoR25	PagesR20	ScottR25	SaleR1	68
9GoOs	GoodmanR21	BellR25	BradleyR25	GriffinR25	BurlesonR9	BaldwinR14	60
10RAGE	EwingR25	CamineroR5	HerreraR20	JonesR25	BasalloR19	BledayR25	54
11FRST ▼ thin	TolleR25	WheelerR8	RumfieldR25	MuncyR18	SkubalR1	VargasR25	53
12KNIG ▼ thin	deGromR13	JensenR20	AbreuR15	ChapmanR11	MartinezR25	RomanoR25	39

The bottom two rows are your trade marks — thin cupboards pay up for keepable pieces.

data: snap 5h · BP 27d · PL 27d · HL 24d · PSS 1h · BR 4d · FG 4h · proj 1h · closer 0h · oyster 4h · AAA-sc 14h · cookie ok