Miz-waukee’s Best — The Brandon League

Last updated Saturday, September 12 · 04:21 AM ET

🔎 Find a Player

Any player in the league universe · tap a result for the card.

☕ Morning Briefing

🏆 MIZ holds 1st place with 105.0 roto points, 16.0 clear of Phil Swift's Flex Seal at #2 — though Flex Seal has been the league's hottest team, climbing 11.5 pts in 8 days, so the gap demands respect. Two category alerts: your SB lead is razor-thin with THAR just 3 steals back, and you're sitting 0.000 AVG behind GoOs — one hit from a +1 roto point.

⚾ Blake Snell was sharp yesterday against the Marlins: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K, picking up the win — exactly the ratios-friendly, strikeout-heavy line you need while protecting ERA and WHIP.

🌱 On the stash radar, James Tibbs III (RI 93, your stash board, FA) went 2-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB at AAA vs the Sugar Land Space Cowboys, while Sterlin Thompson (RI 87, FA) added 2-for-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI at AAA @ Reno — two bats worth tracking as the season tightens. Also worth a quick look: Victor Mesa Jr. and Jared Young are both flashing early contact heat (76/99 and 75/99 L7, respectively, with elite xwOBAcon marks), though both are small-sample signals not yet on the Heat Board.

📰 Around the league, Shohei Ohtani (owned by FRAN) is heading to the 15-day IL with right biceps inflammation, a significant blow to one of your closest rivals. Ryan O'Hearn was activated off the IL by Pittsburgh, giving GoOs — already within 0.000 AVG of you — a live bat back. The Braves called up CF DaShawn Keirsey Jr. from Gwinnett, and he's a free agent if your SB-defense calculus has you shopping.

ELIGIBILITYK. Schwarber 1B 8/10

Your standing

1stof 12

105.0 roto pts +16.0 clear of 2nd

-0.5 pts vs last update

Top Gaps

W (7.0) SB (8.0)

categories below mid-pack

Score change since last update

AVG -1.0SB +0.5W +0.5SV -0.5

🎯 Category Pressure

Category ranks vs. the league.

Rank →

Δ to #1

987

1065

🥇

286

312

🥇

RBI

925

963

🥇

147

150

153

202

+52

AVG

.254

.256

.260

+0.004

1243

1257

1403

+146

+14

ERA

3.50

3.40

🥇

WHIP

1.17

1.15

🥇

📅 Yesterday's MIZ Box Scores (2026-09-11)

Loading box scores…

🏥 IL Rehab Tracker

IL players · rehab game logs.

On the IL, no rehab games yet: Spencer Schwellenbach (IL60 · watch).

📊 League Activity (last 24h)

All adds, drops, and trades across the 12 teams.

Team	Move
Phil Swift's Flex Seal	+ Angel Martinez \| − Jorge Mateo
Team Knighton	+ Abner Uribe \| − Cedric Mullins
Miz-waukee’s Best	+ Cam Smith \| − Michael Arroyo
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	+ Jeffrey Springs \| − Rafael Flores Jr.
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	+ Anthony Volpe \| − Edmundo Sosa

🏆 League Standings

Current roto points · 10,000-sim projected finish. FAAB = acquisition budget remaining.

100.0% to win the league · proj finish 1.0 · 104.1 roto pts

#	Team	Pts	FAAB	Win%	Proj Pts	Range	Proj Rk
1	MIZ Miz-waukee’s Best	105.0	$0	100.0%	104.1	102–106	1.0
2	PEYT Phil Swift's Flex Seal	89.0	$25	0.0%	89.2	86–93	2.1
3	KRTZ Photogenic Nick Kurtz	83.0	$16	0.0%	84.5	81–88	3.1
4	FRAN Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	82.0	$43	0.0%	81.9	79–85	3.7
5	BLOB Camp MVP	68.5	$168	0.0%	69.3	67–72	5.0
6	GoOs I need Buck Showalter	64.5	$170	0.0%	64.8	61–68	6.0
7	KNIG Team Knighton	60.0	$137	0.0%	57.2	54–60	7.8
8	THAR Phil Mickeltits	59.5	$176	0.0%	59.6	56–63	7.1
9	DORN Dorn and Associates LLC	44.0	$89	0.0%	43.6	41–46	10.4
10	GARR The Boys of Summer	44.0	$155	0.0%	47.3	45–50	9.1
11	FRST Worst2First	43.0	$154	0.0%	43.9	41–47	10.2
12	RAGE Ramirez Against the Machine	37.5	$163	0.0%	34.6	33–37	12.0

10,000 sims · fixed seed · noise CV talent 0.12 / idio 0.06 / team-cat 0.08 · assumes ATC rest-of-season rates

Your categories · projected roto points

R 12.0HR 12.0RBI 12.0SB 7.9AVG 9.9W 6.5SV 9.0K 11.0ERA 12.0WHIP 11.9

Winnable — push here: SB, AVG, W, SV.

🚨 Today's Streaming Board

165 of 200 GS · should be 184 · 19 behindBehind pace — stream aggressively

035 left · ~16.3/wk to cap · proj 180200

⏳ BP's post is late — Verdict pill is running on our score + Pitcher List for now (BP joins the top-2 once it posts).

Top FA streamers today

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Walbert Urena	@ WSH	START	—	5.6	#7	Auto-start caliber; changeup elite and velocity holding.
Connor Prielipp	vs CLE	START	—	6.2	—	soft CLE lineup, hot recent form, hitter park
Brandon Pfaadt	vs TEX	START	—	5.6	#13	Elite command but recurring late-inning collapse risk.
Peter Lambert	@ TB	START	—	4.6	#9	Steady, reliable innings-eater all season long.
Clay Holmes	vs PIT	DART	—	4.7	#14	Bounce-back matchup offsets rough recent showing.
Cesar Perdomo	vs SD	DART	—	8.0	#22	Intriguing changeup/heater mix but one-start sample; too risky.
Andrew Alvarez	vs LAA	DART	—	5.8	#19	Short-outing risk persists despite recent efficiency gains.
Andrew Sears	vs COL	DART⚠ opener	—	6.8	#23	Coors boost real but can't go deep efficiently yet.
Zac Thornton	@ NYY	SIT	—	3.2	#21	Weak-contact inducer; Yankees draw pushes him toward Do Not Start.
Tyler Phillips	vs LAD	SIT	—	4.4	#26	Mildly interesting profile destroyed by Dodgers matchup.

Openers filtered: Daniel Espino, Sean Newcomb, Spencer Miles

Your staff: 3.40 ERA / 1.15 WHIP · GS 165/200 — Behind pace — stream aggressively. Verdict = the best 2 of BP · our score · Pitcher List, averaged (low outlier dropped); before BP posts it's our score + PL. ⚠ = our matchup score dissented — eyeball that one. Tap a MIZ score for the reasoning.

Tomorrow · 2 of yours + top 5 FA · Sun 9/13 · BP not out yet, so pill = our score + Pitcher List

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Dylan Cease	vs BAL	START	—	6.9	—	average BAL lineup, strong skills, hot recent form
Eury Pérez	vs LAD	SIT	—	2.6	—	tough LAD lineup, shaky recent form, short leash
Jacob Lopez	vs SEA	START	—	6.5	—	soft SEA lineup, hot recent form, strong skills
Gabriel Hughes	@ DET	DART	—	5.4	—	average DET lineup, strong skills
Christian Scott	@ NYY	DART	—	4.9	—	average NYY lineup, strong skills, shaky recent form
Bubba Chandler	@ CHC	DART	—	4.6	—	tough CHC lineup, hot recent form
Andrew Painter	@ ATL	DART	—	4.5	—	tough ATL lineup, hot recent form, hitter park

📼 Streamer Report Card

Does the Streaming Board actually work? Every pick it showed, frozen at pick time and graded off the real box score. Two scoreboards below: first our own calls — the Verdict ladder and MIZ (our matchup score, 0–10) — then the outside lists behind them, BP (RelieverRecon's daily BP Streamers post) and PL (Pitcher List's tier ranking). Grades are recomputed from raw lines on every build — the rubric can change, the history follows.

Last 30d · 334 starts graded over 29 days · GOOD+ 44% · BLOWUP 19% · agg ERA 4.56 · WHIP 1.36 · 4.4 K/start · 364 picks logged, 19 never started, 11 awaiting a box score — not graded

Grade mix · all 334 graded starts

GEM 54 GOOD 94 OK 122 BLOWUP 64

GEM6+ IP, ≤1 ER · or 6+ IP, 8+ K, ≤2 ERGOODquality start (6+ IP, ≤3 ER) · or 5+ IP, ≤2 EROKheld the line without earning GOODBLOWUP5+ ER · or under 4 IP with 4+ ERGOOD+ = GEM + GOOD. A pick whose starter never took the ball grades to nothing and leaves every rate below.

Cohort	n	GOOD+	BLOWUP	ERA
Q1 — Do our own calls work? · Verdict ladder + MIZ bands · live board rows only, nothing backfilled
Verdict · AUTO START	23	74%	17%	3.45
Verdict · START	46	57%	11%	4.13
Verdict · DART	88	38%	19%	5.05
Verdict · SIT	177	41%	21%	4.59
MIZ ≥ 5.0	102	59%	18%	4.08
MIZ 3.5–4.9	138	38%	22%	5.09
MIZ < 3.5	77	40%	16%	4.44
All live board picks	334	44%	19%	4.56
Q1 read — the ladder has not separated: GOOD+ runs 74% · 57% · 38% · 41% down the rungs, and MIZ does not sort either: 59% · 38% · 40% from the top band down.
Q2 — Which outside list earns the weight? · BP and PL graded on their own published lists · mostly rebuilt from git
PL · Auto Start	23	65%	22%	4.21
PL · Probably Start	47	57%	13%	3.79
PL · Questionable Start	95	46%	21%	4.63
PL · Do Not Start	141	39%	21%	4.80
BP · Auto	6	50%	0%	3.45
BP · Likely	26	42%	19%	4.66
All graded picks	334	44%	19%	4.56
Q2 read — against the 44% all-picks baseline, PL's top tiers clear it (65% · 57%) and BP's top tiers are too thin to call (50% · 42% on n=6 · n=26).

Rows are overlapping lenses on the same picks, not a partition — one start can be a PL Auto Start and a Verdict SIT at once, so they never sum to the headline; each group is read against its own baseline row.

⚠ Dissent check — the override is ahead so far — 67% GOOD+ on n=6. Splits are picks the board started over our MIZ sit-call (vs 44% for all live picks).

Calibration — do our numbers mean anything? · full season, 2026-06-29→2026-09-11 · 1022 graded picks · MIZ on 479, BP on 230, Verdict on 503

The ladder above asks whether the tiers sort. This asks the harder question: is the number a probability — when the board says 7, do 70% of those starts come back GOOD+? Bins are equal-count and merge until every one clears n=15; the walk-forward rows are scored against a model that only ever saw earlier days.

Score bin	n	mean	GOOD+	95% CI
MIZ score → P(GOOD+) · our matchup score, 0–10 · live rows only · n=479
MIZ 0.5–3.3	108	2.7	41%	32%–50%
MIZ 3.4–4.0	93	3.7	43%	33%–53%
MIZ 4.1–4.8	97	4.4	51%	41%–60%
MIZ 4.9–5.6	92	5.2	50%	40%–60%
MIZ 5.7–8.9	89	6.4	60%	49%–69%
All MIZ-scored picks	479	—	48%	—
BP score → P(GOOD+) · RelieverRecon's published rating · includes git-backfilled rows · n=230
BP 4.6–6.6	48	6.1	35%	23%–50%
BP 6.7–7.3	44	7.0	52%	38%–66%
BP 7.4–7.7	47	7.5	45%	31%–59%
BP 7.8–8.4	47	8.1	47%	33%–61%
BP 8.5–10.0	44	9.1	43%	30%–58%
All BP-scored picks	230	—	44%	—
Verdict tier → P(GOOD+) · the consensus call itself · live rows only
AUTO START	33	—	67%	50%–80%
START	65	—	58%	46%–70%
DART	135	—	45%	37%–54%
SIT	270	—	45%	39%–51%

Out-of-sample	n	value	vs
Walk-forward probability · logistic on MIZ, refit daily on earlier days only · from 2026-08-05 · 37 days
Brier — our probability	415	0.249	lower is better
Brier — flat base rate to date	415	0.254	we win by 0.005
Brier — verdict-tier history	415	0.253	we win by 0.005
Log loss — our probability	415	0.690	lower is better
ECE — our probability	415	0.067	5 equal-count bins
ECE bins · predicted p vs what actually happened
said 32%–46%	83	42%	off by 0%
said 46%–50%	83	37%	off by 11%
said 50%–55%	83	42%	off by 11%
said 55%–59%	83	54%	off by 3%
said 60%–74%	83	55%	off by 9%
Verdict — usable with caveats: ECE 0.067 over n=415 out-of-sample picks (≤0.03 well calibrated · ≤0.07 usable with caveats); edges the flat base rate on Brier (0.249 vs 0.254, a thin margin; log-loss ~coin-flip).

🔥 Today's Hitter Streamers

Top 10 FA bats for today's slate · score = split vs SP hand (35%) + SP softness (35%) + bat quality (15%) + trailing 15 days (10%) + park (5%) · facing an elite arm fades the score hard (feast on weak pitchers).

#	Hitter	Matchup	Why	Legs	Score
1	AUTO STARTMickey GasperC · 12% own	vs KC · Dobnak RHP	szn .370 xwOBAL15: 1.013 OPS (46 PA)L14 contact +2.3 (.422 xwOBAcon, 25 BBE)usually bats 2nd (×1.10)beats 4 of 4 eligible startersDobnak .335 allowed · soft SP0.961 OPS vs RHP (144 AB)BOS plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	96
2	AUTO STARTLars NootbaarLF · 2% own	vs TEX · Rocker RHP	szn .346 xwOBAL15: 1.231 OPS (35 PA)L14 contact +2.7 (.431 xwOBAcon, 18 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)fills OF needbeats 5 of 6 eligible startersRocker .329 allowed · soft SP0.768 OPS vs RHP (199 AB)AZ plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	72
3	STARTAndrew Vaughn1B · 4% own	vs CIN · Singer RHP	szn .332 xwOBAL15: 0.904 OPS (31 PA)L14 contact -4.0 (.282 xwOBAcon, 20 BBE)usually bats 4th (×1.05)beats 2 of 4 eligible startersSinger .348 allowed · soft SP0.779 OPS vs RHP (166 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	64
4	STARTGary SanchezC · 2% own	vs CIN · Singer RHP	szn .344 xwOBAusually bats 5thbeats 1 of 2 eligible startersSinger .348 allowed · soft SP0.756 OPS vs RHP (112 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	61
5	DEPTHJoc PedersonDH · 2% own	@ AZ · Pfaadt RHP	szn .343 xwOBAL15: 0.870 OPS (33 PA)L14 contact +1.0 (.393 xwOBAcon, 15 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)beats 0 of 1 eligible startersPfaadt .300 allowed · avg SP0.837 OPS vs RHP (341 AB)AZ plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	61
6	STARTEduardo Valencia1B · 3% own	vs COL · Gordon RHP	szn .323 xwOBAL14 contact +1.5 (.404 xwOBAcon, 17 BBE)usually bats 5thbeats 2 of 4 eligible startersshort side vs RHP — 52% of ABGordon .323 allowed · avg SP0.861 OPS vs RHP (48 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	61
7	STARTAnthony Seigler3B · 0% own	vs KC · Dobnak RHP	szn .315 xwOBAbeats 1 of 5 eligible startersDobnak .335 allowed · soft SP0.797 OPS vs RHP (112 AB)BOS plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	59
8	STARTAndrew BenintendiLF · 3% own	@ STL · Leahy RHP	szn .312 xwOBAL15: 0.704 OPS (43 PA)L14 contact +0.8 (.387 xwOBAcon, 27 BBE)usually bats 4th (×1.05)fills OF needbeats 3 of 6 eligible startersLeahy .337 allowed · soft SP0.749 OPS vs RHP (349 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	54
9	STARTJesus SanchezRF · 1% own	vs BAL · Bradish RHP	szn .322 xwOBAusually bats 4th (×1.05)fills OF needbeats 3 of 6 eligible startersBradish .318 allowed · avg SP0.781 OPS vs RHP (239 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	53
10	STARTRafael Flores Jr.1B · 2% own	@ CHC · Holmes RHP	szn .349 xwOBAL15: 0.678 OPS (44 PA)L14 contact +5.2 (.485 xwOBAcon, 26 BBE)usually bats 7th (×0.95)beats 1 of 4 eligible startersshort side vs RHP — 51% of ABHolmes .311 allowed · avg SP0.804 OPS vs RHP (57 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	52

Tiers vs YOUR lineup tonight — median starter 55, worst Kaelen Culpepper (3). AUTO START = beats the median eligible starter.

TBD starter = neutral SP + split legs until the probable posts (refresh upgrades it). Splits need 30+ AB vs that hand. IL bats are excluded; bats who rarely start against tonight's hand are dropped. Doubleheaders: legs average the ends he plays, and everyday bats get up to a ×1.50 volume boost. Lineup slot scales the score by expected PAs from the bat's usual spot (leadoff ×1.12 … 9-hole ×0.90, modal over the last ~10 played days) — his typical order, not today's card, since that posts after waivers run.

🎯 FA Hitters — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Kyle Schwarber

1Victor Mesa Jr.LF · TB · 2.1%HEATER

529 BA, 2 HR, 2 SB last 7; SB directly attacks MIZ's live rank-5 gap at 153

L7 flare 76 · ATC 35 PA · 1 HR · 1 SB · 0.228 · L7 0.529 · 2 HR · sim +0.0 pts

2Rafael Flores Jr.

1B · Pit · 2.3% · HEATER

83/99 heat on trusted 26-BBE sample, 485 xwOBAcon; best contact-quality floor in pool

Heat 83 · 26 BBE · ATC 32 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.234 · L7 0.412 · 1 HR · sim +0.0 pts

3Thomas Saggese

2B · StL · 15.5% · HEATER

75/99 heat, 30 BBE trusted sample, 444 BA L14, 3 HR; deepest corroborated hot streak

Heat 75 · 30 BBE · ATC 25 PA · 0 HR · 0 SB · 0.252 · L7 0.389 · 0 HR · sim +0.0 pts

4Justin Foscue

2B · Tex · 0.6% · UPSIDE

76 heat, 489 xwOBAcon, 357 BA L14; small PT risk but underlying contact quality is real

Heat 76 · 21 BBE · ATC 20 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.223 · L7 0.385 · 0 HR · sim +0.0 pts

5Lars Nootbaar

LF · Ari · 2.5% · CATEGORY FIT

Projects 1 SB RoS, 78/99 heat, 444 BA last 7; directly addresses live SB gap at rank 5

Heat 78 · 18 BBE · ATC 48 PA · 1 HR · 1 SB · 0.248 · L7 0.444 · 0 HR · sim +0.0 pts

Passed on: Christian Koss has a jaw-dropping last-7 (3 HR, 438 BA, 1 SB) but wRC+ 69 projection and no heat-board signal make this a small-sample aberration with no corroboration.

💪 Hitter List Rankings

PL Top 150 hitters · your bats + top FAs.

On Hitter List · 16 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Hitter	MLB	Pos	Chg	AVG	xwOBA	HR	SB	RoS	Chu’s Take
16	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	DH	+3	.238	.368	44	3	124
18	Randy Arozarena	SEA	OF	-	.272	.347	22	22	127
21	Miguel Vargas	CHW	1B/3B	+19	.247	.381	30	18	115	Miguel Vargas has returned to the levels we saw early this summer and that really revs my engine. He’s one of those players who has shown…
36	Yandy Díaz	TB	1B	+3	.303	.355	22	3	122
46	Zach Neto	LAA	SS	+11	.242	.311	25	19	111	Zach Neto has been a monster over the last nine games, with 17 hits, 18 combined runs and RBI (a seven RBI night helps), and seven extra-…
59	Jac Caglianone	KC	1B/OF	+13	.283	.357	23	6	108	Jac Caglianone still hits a lot of grounders, but not quite as many as before (the rolling 15-game rate is a hair below 50%) and the stri…
72	Ty France	SD	1B	+12	.294	.335	20	1	109
77	Royce Lewis	MIN	1B/2B/3B	-15	.231	.312	14	14	96	Royce Lewis is streaky. We just gotta deal with that.
85	Cole Carrigg	COL	SS/OF	-22	.266	.313	7	9	67	The strikeouts have creeped up on Cole Carrigg , up to 32% over his last 11 games (which is, conveniently, exactly 50 plate appearances).…
106	Luis Robert Jr.	NYM	OF	+UR	.221	.321	11	2	100
109	Mickey Gasper	BOS	C/1B	+UR	.265	.370	9	0	104	Mickey Gasper — Fantastic mustache, first of all. Second of all, the batted ball data suggests what’s happening of late is very real, tho…
115	Kaelen Culpepper	MIN	SS	+UR	.286	.300	3	1	90	Kaelen Culpepper — Culpepper puts a lot of balls in play and it’s working out so far. The BABIP Gods can be cruel, though. The 55 point g…
119	Rafael Flores Jr.	PIT	C/1B	+UR	.243	.349	8	0	83
133	Connor Norby	COL	1B/2B/3B	+UR	.225	.302	7	8	91	Connor Norby still has huge contact issues but the guy can hit the ball hard in the air and plays for Colorado so stream away.
135	Henry Bolte	ATH	OF	+UR	.276	.318	10	20	94	Henry Bolte is leading off again and should get some games in Sacramento soon, if you need a streamer.
137	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	BAL	1B/3B	+UR	.268	.345	8	1	92
143	Alejandro Kirk	TOR	C	+UR	.273	.303	9	1	113
145	Tyler Stephenson	CIN	C	-33	.248	.334	15	0	94
146	Ryan Jeffers	MIN	C	-29	.270	.363	14	1	116
148	Andruw Monasterio	BOS	2B/SS	-26	.241	.294	6	4	89
149	Dylan Crews	WSH	OF	-35	.225	.312	11	9	83
TS	Bryce Eldridge	SF	1B	—	.270	.357	16	1	100	Bryce Eldridge (1B, SFG) — Power prospects can often take a while to really shine.
TS	Cam Smith	Hou	OF	—	.219	.325	20	10	99	Cam Smith (OF, HOU) — The roller coaster continues.
TS	Walker Jenkins	Min	OF	—	.108	.270	1	1	102	Walker Jenkins (OF, MIN) — Jenkins will get the call today after a white-hot month in the triple-A. He’s worth a scoop in most leagues, E…
UR	James Wood	Wsh	OF	—	.266	.415	30	19	126	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Ralphy Velazquez	Cle	1B	—	—	—	—	—	83	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.

🔥 Heat Board

Hottest ACTIVE free-agent bats by contact quality, 8/29–9/11 · Heat = percentile vs all MLB bats over the same window (xwOBAcon 30 · EV 20 · Brl 20 · HH 15 · K 10 · BB 5) · min 15 BBE to qualify (smaller samples live in the HM rail) · IL excluded.

Rafael Flores Jr.

1B · Pit · 2.3% own · xwOBAcon .485 · EV 94.7 · Brl 11.5% · 26 BBE

▲ .022 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.243	8	19	13	0
L14	.265	2	5	3	0

Francisco Alvarez

C · NYM · 8.9% own · xwOBAcon .568 · EV 95.2 · Brl 20.0% · 15 BBE

▼ .008 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.230	15	37	32	0
L14	.222	2	6	3	0

Lars Nootbaar

LF · Ari · 2.5% own · xwOBAcon .431 · EV 92.1 · Brl 11.1% · 18 BBE

▲ .082 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.236	6	29	29	2
L14	.318	1	7	1	0

Andrew Benintendi

LF · ChW · 3.4% own · xwOBAcon .387 · EV 92.3 · Brl 14.8% · 27 BBE

▼ .042 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.242	14	70	55	1
L14	.200	1	3	6	0

Leo Bernal

C · StL · 1.3% own · xwOBAcon .400 · EV 94.5 · Brl 6.9% · 29 BBE

▼ .047 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.325	2	12	7	0
L14	.278	2	10	6	0

Michael Massey

2B · KC · 0.9% own · xwOBAcon .448 · EV 93.2 · Brl 4.2% · 24 BBE

▲ .016 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.280	11	45	46	3
L14	.296	0	1	0	1

Justin Foscue

2B · Tex · 0.6% own · xwOBAcon .489 · EV 91.3 · Brl 14.3% · 21 BBE

▲ .086 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.271	11	33	22	0
L14	.357	2	8	2	0

Thomas Saggese

2B · StL · 15.5% own · xwOBAcon .442 · EV 92.0 · Brl 10.0% · 30 BBE

▲ .177 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.267	4	12	21	3
L14	.444	3	8	12	2

Jose Siri

CF · LAA · 0.1% own · xwOBAcon .390 · EV 95.9 · Brl 18.8% · 16 BBE

▼ .103 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.223	8	26	30	6
L14	.120	1	3	2	1

Yainer Diaz

C · Hou · 40.5% own · xwOBAcon .367 · EV 97.0 · Brl 13.0% · 23 BBE

▲ .061 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.272	11	36	33	0
L14	.333	1	2	5	0

Honorable mention · hottest L7 (9/5–9/11), not yet on the board · tiny samples — peek, don't trust

Victor Mesa Jr.

LF · TB

.446 xwOBAcon

16 BBE · .529 L7

Jared Young

1B · NYM

.410 xwOBAcon

12 BBE · .357 L7

Owen Caissie

RF · Mia

.541 xwOBAcon

9 BBE · .176 L7

Nolan Gorman

3B · StL

.417 xwOBAcon

14 BBE · .211 L7

Grant McCray

RF · SF

.501 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .250 L7

Denzer Guzman

SS · LAA

.523 xwOBAcon

10 BBE · .357 L7

🎯 FA Pitchers — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Andres Munoz

1Merrill KellySP · Ari · 23.2%HEATER

92nd-percentile suppression on 36 BBE trusted sample; elite xwOBAcon signals ATC ERA/WHIP are pessimistic, 3 GS available

Supp 92 · 36 BBE · ATC 17.0 IP · 1 W · 14 K · 4.60 · 1.36 · sim -0.1 pts

2Andrew Alvarez

SP · Wsh · 6.2% · FLOOR

87th-percentile suppression, lowest xwOBAcon-allowed on board, ratio-safe profile with 3 GS, protects ERA/WHIP lead

Supp 87 · 26 BBE · ATC 13.0 IP · 0 W · 10 K · 4.07 · 1.38 · PL #19 · sim -0.1 pts

3Steven Cruz

RP · KC · 1.2% · CATEGORY FIT

Confirmed closer role, 2 projected SVs close gap to rank 3; suppression flare thin but role makes it worth the add

Supp 81 · 9 BBE · ATC 6.0 IP · 0 W · 6 K · 4.24 · 1.31 · 2 SV · Closer · sim -0.0 pts

4Juan Morillo

RP · Ari · 3.2% · CATEGORY FIT

Closer role confirmed, 1 SV projected; 14 BBE sample thin but real role justifies adding for saves with neutral ratio impact

Supp 50 · 14 BBE · ATC 6.0 IP · 0 W · 6 K · 3.83 · 1.36 · 1 SV · Closer · sim -0.0 pts

5Brandon Pfaadt

SP · Ari · 22.0% · BEST VALUE

67th-percentile suppression on 43 BBE trusted, 1.30 WHIP projection acceptable, 3 GS adds K/W volume behind cap pace

Supp 67 · 43 BBE · ATC 17.0 IP · 1 W · 13 K · 4.67 · 1.30 · PL #13 · sim -0.1 pts

Passed on: Clay Holmes ranked #14 by Pitcher List but 50th-percentile suppression on 30 BBE with 90.6 EV allowed threatens ERA/WHIP leads MIZ cannot afford to bleed.

⚾ Pitcher List Rankings

PL Top 100 SP · your arms + top FAs.

On Pitcher List · 6 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Pitcher	MLB	Chg	ERA	xERA	K/9	RoS	Pollack’s Take
1	Jacob Misiorowski	MIL	-	1.95	2.10	13.2	3.40	Like a base set Charizard, Misiorowski’s not gonna stop being dope.
9	Blake Snell	LAD	+7	1.91	2.11	12.2	3.31	#HotSnellSummer is in full swing.
10	Dylan Cease	TOR	-1	2.40	2.77	12.7	3.45	Like a perfect burger without the condiments to hit all your macros, Cease gives you everything except for a stable WHIP due to his infla…
20	Kyle Harrison	MIL	+8	3.66	3.73	10.9	4.19	With a dominant outing, he muted our concerns, but Harrison’s still displaying decreased velocity and not commanding as well as he did in…
22	Eury Pérez	MIA	-4	3.94	4.09	9.7	3.91	Pérez has the stuff to be an ace, but there’s polishing to do in the command and game plan departments to unlock his full potential.
29	Sean Burke	CHW	-4	3.58	3.81	9.8	4.43	Burke’s hot streak has come to a brief pause, but he’s still doing everything he’s supposed to with elite four-seamers upstairs and suppo…
30	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	-4	3.78	3.90	6.4	4.17	Baseball’s premier innings eater hasn’t ruined his appetite.
38	Jacob Lopez	ATH	+6	4.78	3.50	8.4	4.55	It’s the 2025 hot streak all over again. Enjoy the ride, ya’ll!
39	Dustin May	MIL	-	4.49	4.30	8.7	4.18	May got Singled Out in a disastrous performance, but his stuff is still dope, and his new situation is ideal. Higher win chance, great de…
40	Walbert Ureña	LAA	-	2.74	3.40	8.5	4.49	Armed with upper-90s heaters and one of the best changeups in baseball, Ureña has hit few speed bumps. If that developing sweeper becomes…
43	Andrew Painter	PHI	+UR	5.71	4.54	7.9	4.71	From off The List to inside the Top 50, Painter has stolen our hearts with an improved heater (97+ mph with 17-18″ iVB) and emphasis on r…
45	Peter Lambert	HOU	-4	3.67	3.65	8.8	4.61	Lambert’s stumble last time was a product of being Singled Out . He’s been reliable all year, but we should be recognizing that Holly is …
46	Jared Jones	PIT	-8	4.10	3.42	10.5	3.97	The stuff is top-tier, but he’s still shaking off the Tommy John surgery rust with his command and the tight leash the Pirates have on hi…
54	Joey Cantillo	CLE	-8	4.00	4.21	9.6	4.05	Efficiency is a problem, but Cantillo is doing everything we want. More curveballs, faster fastballs, and supportive cutters. Throw more …
56	Shane Bieber	TOR	+14	4.37	5.95	7.1	4.05	Bieber is back in business. His heater looked awesome in The Trop, and his offspeed pitches are being the CSW monsters they need to be to…
58	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	-	3.53	3.76	5.9	4.67	Despite what the line suggests, Pfaadt’s last start wasn’t an end to his Vargas Rule . It was a textbook Careful, Icarus with a three-run…

🔒 Closer Chart

Save targets · roles + regression flags.

BLUEEntrenched closer (highest leverage)GREENNext man up / committee pieceYELLOWSetup, 8th-inning leverageORANGESpeculative / lower priorityMAGENTAHigh-upside future / multi-inning

	Pitcher	Tm	Role	SV	SVHD	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K/9	Rtg / Own
Yours on the chart
	Andrés Muñoz b2b	Seattle Mariners	CL	27	27	54.3	3.98	1.16	3.20	14.1	5.0 · —
—	Louis Varland	Toronto Blue Jays	CL	33	38	72.3	1.24	1.01	2.22	11.1	5.0 · —
Top 5 FA closers (by team rating)
—	Andrew Kittredge	Baltimore Orioles	CL	9	18	45.7	3.74	1.40	4.06	7.5	4.0 · 3%
—	Dylan Smith	San Francisco Giants	CL	4	11	33.3	3.24	1.41	3.92	11.1	4.0 · 0%
—	Steven Cruz HLR	Kansas City Royals	CL	7	12	55.7	4.04	1.24	4.09	9.5	3.5 · 1%
	Jacob Webb	Chicago Cubs	CL	9	17	61.7	3.36	1.25	4.30	9.8	3.0 · 5%
	Juan Morillo	Arizona Diamondbacks	CL	3	21	58.0	2.33	1.07	2.48	10.4	1.0 · 3%

ERA cell: green <3.00 · red >4.50. xERA arrow: ↓ ERA likely to fall (buy) · ↑ ERA likely to rise (sell). Triggers when |xERA−ERA| ≥ 1.00.

✂️ Cut List

Drop priority · value, form, pedigree, role.

46	Royce Lewis 3B · Min low TV (17) sim cost ~0	TV 17 Rd 13
27	Kyle Harrison SP · Mil mid TV (43); cold last 7d; UFDA — easy to drop; BUT top-tier keeper sim cost ~0	TV 43 UFDA
21	Sandy Alcantara SP · Mia mid TV (58); BUT solid keeper sim cost ~0	TV 58 Rd 14
15	Blake Snell SP · LAD BUT strong RoS (3.31 ERA) sim cost ~0	TV 80 Rd 8
14	Joe Ryan SP · Min BUT high-pedigree (Rd 5) sim cost ~0	TV 72 Rd 5

Higher score = drop sooner — top 5 by score, and only 8+ reaches the board, so the number has no ceiling and is only comparable within this list. The sim line is a roto-sim marginal (cut vs. keep on one shared set of draws), not a measured cost. Pedigree + named closers shielded.

🌱 Stash List

PL's top prospects · grab them cheap.

Hitters

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 24: Top 10 Hitting Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + PSS + PFV + age + 40-man + path.

21 available — 1 yours

R. Velazquez YOURS

1B/C · CLE · AA · 20 · ⏸ 6d

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

29·2·.290

M. Arroyo

SS · SEA · AAA · 21 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

18·17·.281

S. Thompson

OF · COL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

14·20·.307

J. Tibbs III

OF · LAD · AAA · 23 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

29·10·.296

C. Ingle

C · CLE · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

20·2·.285

H. Mendez

OF · MIN · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

12·5·.282

B. Davidson

OF · SFG · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

September

Szn

28·19·.286

S. Walcott

3B/SS · TEX · AA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

10·12·.329

Z. Hope

OF · DET · AA · 21 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

28·26·.286

M. Anderson

2B · DET · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

16·5·.299

R. Ward

LF · LAD · AAA · 28 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

21·8·.247

C. Cannarella

OF · MIA · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

15·21·.333

A. Miller

SS · PHI · AA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

0·0·.333

J. Long

1B · CHC · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

15·3·.272

R. Clifford

1B · NYM · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

17·8·.177

E. Arroyo

SS · CIN · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

15·14·.281

J. Made

SS · MIL · AA · 19 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

14·36·.270

S. King

SS/2B/3B · WSN · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

19·15·.305

K. Alderman

OF · MIA · AAA · 23 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

18·10·.252

P. Harber

3B · SFG · AAA · 24 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

'27

Szn

17·4·.272

D. Crisantes

2B/3B · ARI · AAA · 21 · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

blocked

Szn

9·0·.288

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

Pitchers

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 24: Top 10 Pitching Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + L3 quality + FV + age + 40-man + path.

29 available

T. Johnson

SP · TBR · AAA · 24 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

87K·3.09

J. Tong

SP · NYM · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

140K·4.57

B. Mautz

SP · STL · AAA · 24 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

100K·4.28

H. Smith

SP · CHW · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

August 1st

Szn

113K·3.42

M. Ullola

SP · HOU · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

100K·4.12

L. Perales

SP · WSN · AAA · 23 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

106K·4.18

A. Kelly

SP · PIT · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

77K·4.47

C. Seymour

SP · SFG · AAA · 27 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

88K·4.23

K. Curtis

SP · PIT · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

115K·4.93

R. Snelling

SP · MIA · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

46K·2.38

D. Sandlin

SP · CHW · AAA · 25 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

99K·3.35

O. Murphy

SP · ATL · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

127K·3.63

J. Wenninger

SP · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

122K·4.21

M. Bratt

SP · ARI · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

84K·3.88

G. Wood

SP · PHI · AA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

'26

Szn

139K·4.36

J. Ritchie

SP · ATL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

142K·3.72

M. Forret

SP · BAL · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

125K·3.89

T. Bremner

SP · LAA · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

100K·4.33

R. Sloan

SP · SEA · AA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

124K·3.70

E. Rodriguez

SP · NYY · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

123K·3.09

T. McDougal

SP · CHW · AAA · 23 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

50K·5.09

R. Ryan

SP · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

45K·4.23

B. Garrett

SP · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

June 1st

Szn

114K·3.76

D. Davalillo

SP · TEX · AAA · 24 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

100K·4.87

C. Dana

SP · LAA · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

85K·5.52

B. Hopkins

SP · TBR · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

122K·5.17

C. Crow

SP · MIL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

104K·4.01

T. Gibson

SP · BAL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

102K·4.99

L. Braun

SP · ATL · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

105K·4.02

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

🔭 15 not a 2026 factor — Anthony Eyanson · Jackson Ferris · Liam Doyle · Tyson Hardin · Christian Zazueta · Jackson Wolf · Jurrangelo Cijntje · Jamie Arnold · Bryce Mayer · Daniel Eagen · David Hagaman · Jonathan Santucci · Joseph Dzierwa · Jaxon Wiggins · Karson Milbrandt

💼 Trades

Buy-low targets · league trade history.

Top Buy-Lows

Rebound candidates · suggested offers.

Hitters

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Juan Soto RF · NYM · GARR · jregarris +1.3σ buy-low · RF — fits a need · BA 0.275 / xBA 0.293 · xwOBA 0.416	100%	159 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Kyle Schwarber DH · comparable value (TV 100 vs target 100)
📈 BUY-LOW	Heriberto Hernandez LF · Mia · FRAN · francisw789 +1.5σ buy-low · LF — fits a need · BA 0.225 / xBA 0.248 · xwOBA 0.357	10%	99 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 35 vs target 34)
📈 BUY-LOW	Corey Seager SS · Tex · PEYT · simplejack2k9 +1.4σ buy-low · SS — modest fit · BA 0.227 / xBA 0.249 · xwOBA 0.352	62%	125 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Eury Perez SP · comparable value (TV 50 vs target 52)
📈 BUY-LOW	Cal Raleigh C · Sea · KNIG · TKHOO +1.7σ buy-low · C — modest fit · BA 0.183 / xBA 0.190 · xwOBA 0.312	86%	129 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Miguel Vargas 3B · comparable value (TV 89 vs target 95)
📈 BUY-LOW	JJ Bleday CF · Cin · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.3σ buy-low · CF — fits a need · BA 0.214 / xBA 0.239 · xwOBA 0.342	21%	100 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Cam Smith RF + Royce Lewis 3B · two-piece package (TV 23 vs target 26)
↑ mild buy	Taylor Ward LF · Sea · GoOs · My Best Guys +0.7σ buy-low · LF — fits a need · BA 0.225 / xBA 0.242 · xwOBA 0.335	57%	120 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Sandy Alcantara SP · comparable value (TV 58 vs target 60)
↑ mild buy	Kyle Stowers LF · Mia · KNIG · TKHOO +0.7σ buy-low · LF — fits a need · BA 0.244 / xBA 0.229 · xwOBA 0.330	28%	111 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Cam Smith RF + Royce Lewis 3B · two-piece package (TV 23 vs target 27)
↑ mild buy	Dominic Canzone RF · Sea · GARR · jregarris +0.5σ buy-low · RF — fits a need · BA 0.254 / xBA 0.265 · xwOBA 0.349	12%	114 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 35 vs target 33)
↑ mild buy	Ian Happ LF · ChC · FRAN · francisw789 +0.7σ buy-low · LF — fits a need · BA 0.219 / xBA 0.206 · xwOBA 0.313	70%	109 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 35 vs target 41)
↑ mild buy	Jarren Duran LF · Bos · RAGE · glhoward40 +0.8σ buy-low · LF — fits a need · BA 0.207 / xBA 0.236 · xwOBA 0.301	66%	100 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Eury Perez SP + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 50 vs target 57)

Pitchers

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Kodai Senga SP · NYM · KRTZ · FratSkins +1.1σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 7.14 vs xERA 5.09	11%	3.88 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Cam Smith RF + +$4 FAAB · comparable value (TV 6 vs target 14)
↑ mild buy	Nick Pivetta SP · SD · GARR · jregarris +0.7σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 3.43 vs xERA 2.42	59%	3.88 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Eury Perez SP · comparable value (TV 50 vs target 54)
↑ mild buy	Bryce Miller SP · Sea · BLOB · crenshawh19 +0.6σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.22 vs xERA 3.45	29%	4.15 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 35 vs target 37)
↑ mild buy	Freddy Peralta SP · TB · KNIG · TKHOO +0.6σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.82 vs xERA 3.92	76%	4.03 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Eury Perez SP + +$4 FAAB · comparable value (TV 50 vs target 58)
↑ mild buy	Jeffrey Springs SP · Oak · FRAN · francisw789 +0.7σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 6.02 vs xERA 4.82	8%	4.96 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Ralphy Velazquez 1B · comparable value (TV 2 vs target 4)

League History

Completed trades · frozen grade at the deal + live grade now.

Side	Sent	At deal	Now	Trend
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Andy Pages	A- +7	A+ +45	▲ up
Camp MVP	Pete Crow-Armstrong	C -7	F -45	▼ down
Team Knighton ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Team Knighton	Matthew Boyd	F -22	F -23
Camp MVP	Kenley Jansen	A+ +22	A+ +23
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Worst2First 2026-08-10
Miz-waukee’s Best	Charlie Condon, Payton Tolle	A+ +50	A+ +33	▼ down
Worst2First	Dylan Cease	F -50	F -33	▲ up
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Dorn and Associates LLC 2026-08-05
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Travis Bazzana, George Lombard Jr., Nolan McLean	A+ +144	A+ +105	▼ down
Dorn and Associates LLC	Jackson Chourio, Jhoan Duran, Brice Turang, David Bednar	F -144	F -105	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-07-31
Miz-waukee’s Best	Samuel Basallo, Kade Anderson	A- +8	A+ +32	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine	Blake Snell	C -8	F -32	▼ down
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Team Knighton 2026-07-23
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Jo Adell, Jacob deGrom	F -49	F -63	▼ down
Team Knighton	Trea Turner	A+ +49	A+ +63	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine ⇄ Miz-waukee’s Best 2026-07-19
Ramirez Against the Machine	Sandy Alcantara	F -42	F -54	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best	Josh Jung	A+ +42	A+ +54	▲ up
I need Buck Showalter ⇄ Hit the Damn Ball You Bums 2026-06-19
I need Buck Showalter	Nasim Nunez	A+ +28	A +13	▼ down
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Justin Wrobleski	F -28	D -13	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ The Boys of Summer 2026-06-12
Miz-waukee’s Best	Chandler Simpson	A +10	A- +7	▼ down
The Boys of Summer	$30 FAAB	D -10	C -7	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-05-01
Miz-waukee’s Best	Kenley Jansen	—	A- +7
Camp MVP	$30 FAAB	A- +3	C -7	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-04-22
Miz-waukee’s Best	Nathan Eovaldi, $70 FAAB	—	F -56
Ramirez Against the Machine	Jac Caglianone	A+ +60	A+ +56	▼ down

🔻 Sell-High — My Roster

Surface line outrunning the underlying skill — trade-value peaks. σ = his surface-stat z-score minus his Statcast-skill z-score, both against the league reference for his side — bigger σ = further ahead of the skill. Pair with Buy-Low Targets.

Verdict	Player	Own	Surface vs expected	Contact	2027 keeper
↓ SHOP	Yandy Diaz 1B · TB 0.59σ sell-high · 1B · BA 0.305 / xBA 0.289 · xwOBA 0.355 — test the market, don't force it	93%	BA 0.305 / xBA 0.289 +.016 wOBA 0.365 / xwOBA 0.355 +.010	HH 48.5% · Brl/PA 5.6%	7th · +1 rd vs mkt
↓ SHOP	Henry Bolte RF · Oak 0.54σ sell-high · RF · BA 0.277 / xBA 0.249 · xwOBA 0.318 — test the market, don't force it	11%	BA 0.277 / xBA 0.249 +.028 wOBA 0.340 / xwOBA 0.318 +.022	HH 48.4% · Brl/PA 4.7%	25th · +5 rds vs mkt

👥 Your Roster

Your roster · news + buy/sell signals.

News (last 24h)

Player news · last 24h.

Royce Lewis Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins
Sat 09-12 04:15 AM
Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins

Leverage Buys/Sells

Buy/sell windows · surface vs. underlying.

Hitters

Player	Pos	MLB	BA	xBA	wOBA	xwOBA	Brl%	Own%	Signal
James Wood	LF	Wsh	0.266	0.275	0.392	0.415	100.0	99.0	📈 BUY-LOW
Kyle Schwarber	DH	Phi	0.238	0.241	0.376	0.368	99.0	99.6	📈 BUY-LOW
Miguel Vargas	3B	ChW	0.247	0.266	0.362	0.381	89.0	95.0	📈 BUY-LOW
Cole Carrigg	CF	Col	0.266	0.248	0.338	0.313	—	12.2	fair
Walker Jenkins	CF	Min	0.108	0.164	0.253	0.270	—	4.7	fair
Kaelen Culpepper	SS	Min	0.286	0.250	0.332	0.300	—	6.0	fair
Cam Smith	RF	Hou	0.219	0.243	0.303	0.325	75.0	7.5	↑ mild buy
Royce Lewis	3B	Min	0.231	0.241	0.302	0.312	72.0	13.4	↑ mild buy
Bryce Eldridge	1B	SF	0.270	0.258	0.359	0.357	73.0	13.3	↑ mild buy
Ryan Jeffers	C	Min	0.270	0.258	0.377	0.363	73.0	41.9	fair
Zach Neto	SS	LAA	0.242	0.215	0.335	0.311	75.0	60.7	fair
Jac Caglianone DTD	RF	KC	0.283	0.281	0.356	0.357	91.0	48.3	fair
Randy Arozarena	LF	Sea	0.272	0.258	0.367	0.347	52.0	93.8	fair
Henry Bolte	RF	Oak	0.276	0.249	0.340	0.318	51.0	11.4	↓ mild fade
Yandy Diaz	1B	TB	0.303	0.289	0.365	0.355	48.0	92.8	↓ mild fade
Ralphy Velazquez	1B	Cle	—	—	—	—	—	0.7	—

Pitchers

Pitcher	Pos	MLB	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K-BB%	xwOBA-a	Brl%-a	Own%	Signal
Blake Snell	SP	LAD	37.7	1.91	1.09	2.11	22.7	0.226	1.4	91.0	↑ mild buy
Andres Munoz	RP	Sea	54.3	3.98	1.16	3.20	27.4	0.278	8.5	80.4	↑ mild buy
Joe Ryan	SP	Min	129.7	4.10	1.14	3.50	21.6	0.290	10.5	87.8	fair
Jacob Misiorowski	SP	Mil	161.3	1.95	0.80	2.10	31.7	0.225	3.9	99.3	fair
Sandy Alcantara	SP	Mia	200.0	3.78	1.22	3.90	10.6	0.305	5.6	83.7	fair
Dylan Cease	SP	Tor	161.3	2.40	1.04	2.77	24.8	0.259	5.2	99.3	fair
Kyle Harrison	SP	Mil	110.7	3.66	1.27	3.73	21.4	0.299	8.3	58.3	fair
Eury Perez	SP	Mia	139.3	3.94	1.24	4.09	15.1	0.312	10.2	68.7	fair
Louis Varland	RP	Tor	72.3	1.24	1.01	2.22	23.9	0.232	4.0	86.5	fair

📰 MLB News — Top Fantasy Stories

🔒 Keepers — 2027 Slate

Peter's model (additive): rounds-saved (cost arbitrage spine) + current skill + career-grade pedigree + sample stability + Statcast over/under-performance trend, with age-decline (33+), closer/RP, and top-30 talent adjustments. Heavy on bargain-hunting.
Claude's model (multiplicative dynasty index): EFV(2027) = (3 + skill + upside) × age_mult × pos_mult; score = EFV − cost_replacement − mookie-lock. Compounds age curve and position scarcity.
Sorted by consensus rank (average of both models). MLB-inactive players surfaced in 🚑 Return Watch below.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict	Notes
1.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	21st	#1 (+24.4)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51	UFDA-G FV 55
2.5	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	22nd	#3 (+21.5)	#2 (+27.1)	S · $27
3.0	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	25th	#2 (+21.6)	#4 (+17.1)	A · $17	UFDA
4.5	Bryce Eldridge	1B · 20yo	25th	#4 (+16.2)	#5 (+14.4)	A · $14	UFDA FV 55
4.5	Zach Neto	SS · 25yo	10th	#6 (+14.8)	#3 (+22.0)	S · $22
5.5	Henry Bolte	RF · 21yo	25th	#5 (+15.0)	#6 (+13.8)	A · $14	UFDA FV 40
7.0	Dylan Cease	SP · 30yo	4th	#7 (+12.0)	#7 (+11.7)	A · $12
8.0	Eury Perez	SP · 23yo	20th	#8 (+10.5)	#8 (+8.5)	B · $8	UFDA-G

NEW UFDA cap: Peter 3/3 · Claude 3/3 · BOTH = top 8 in both models. Peter only = his model values cost surplus more; Claude only = mine values projection / position scarcity more.

🚑 Return watch — would be keeper-eligible if they get MLB action this year. Rank shown is hypothetical (where they'd slot if eligible).

Player	Pos · Age	Cost	Peter (if elig.)	Claude (if elig.)
Ralphy Velazquez	1B · 19yo	25th	#18 (-2.0)	#13 (+1.4)

Updated Sat Sep 12 · 4:21 AM ET

🌍 League-Wide Top Keepers

Top 10 keepers · all 12 teams · both models. Yours in green.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	Team	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict
2.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	MIZ	21st	#3 (+24.4)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51
2.5	Jesus Luzardo	SP · 28yo	KNIG	21st	#1 (+27.9)	#4 (+33.4)	S · $33
3.5	Jordan Walker	RF · 24yo	GARR	25th	#2 (+25.2)	#5 (+29.9)	S · $30
3.5	Bryan Baker	RP · 31yo	DORN	25th	#4 (+24.1)	#3 (+38.7)	S · $39
6.0	Cam Schlittler	SP · 24yo	KRTZ	19th	#10 (+19.6)	#2 (+40.8)	S · $41
7.0	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	MIZ	22nd	#8 (+21.5)	#6 (+27.1)	S · $27
8.0	Ben Rice	1B · 27yo	DORN	20th	#5 (+22.2)	— (+15.2)	A · $15
8.5	Payton Tolle	SP · 22yo	FRST	25th	#6 (+21.8)	— (+18.5)	S · $18
9.0	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	MIZ	25th	#7 (+21.6)	— (+17.1)	A · $17
9.0	Junior Caminero	3B · 22yo	RAGE	5th	— (+12.3)	#7 (+23.3)	S · $23
9.5	Zach Neto	SS · 25yo	MIZ	10th	— (+14.8)	#8 (+22.0)	S · $22
10.0	Logan Henderson	SP · 23yo	PEYT	25th	#9 (+19.7)	— (+15.8)	A · $16
10.0	Riley O'Brien	RP · 31yo	THAR	17th	— (+11.7)	#9 (+21.9)	S · $22
10.5	Cristopher Sanchez	SP · 29yo	PEYT	9th	— (+17.5)	#10 (+21.1)	S · $21

Updated Sat Sep 12 · 4:21 AM ET

🏚️ Keeper Cupboards

Every team's six best keepers · shade = dual-model consensus value. Cupboard score weights the top four heavily (the slots that get kept), keepers 5–8 taper. 100 = league's best cupboard.

Team	K1	K2	K3	K4	K5	K6	Cupboard
1MIZ	MisiorowskiR21	VarlandR22	VargasR25	EldridgeR25	NetoR10	BolteR25	100
2DORN	BakerR25	RiceR20	McLeanR20	BazzanaR25	LaraR25	PerdomoR21	79
3KNIG	LuzardoR21	deGromR13	MartinezR25	AbreuR15	JensenR20	ChapmanR11	67
4FRAN	LatzR25	McCarthyR25	BurnsR5	CavalliR21	AntonacciR25	BradishR21	66
5KRTZ	SchlittlerR19	BengeR25	SanojaR25	McGonigleR17	StewartR10	IIR5	60
6GoOs	GriffinR25	BradleyR25	GoodmanR21	BurlesonR9	ReynoldsR10	GomezR25	58
7PEYT	HendersonR25	SanchezR9	ValdezR25	WooR8	WetherholtR13	MayoR17	56
8THAR	RasmussenR8	O'BrienR17	Jr.R16	WilliamsR11	KeaschallR21	BauersR25	56
9GARR	WalkerR25	MessickR18	CanzoneR25	GrayR7	SimpsonR9	MerrillR1	48
10BLOB	SorianoR25	LopezR20	ScottR25	TaylorR25	LileR15	SaleR1	47
11RAGE ▼ thin	EwingR25	CamineroR5	JonesR25	BasalloR19	HerreraR20	ImanagaR9	46
12FRST ▼ thin	TolleR25	WheelerR8	RouppR25	MuncyR18	SkubalR1	RumfieldR25	42

The bottom two rows are your trade marks — thin cupboards pay up for keepable pieces.

data: snap 0h · BP 18d · PL 18d · HL 15d · PSS 0h · BR 0h · FG 17h · proj 17h · closer 0h · oyster 17h · AAA-sc 5h · cookie ok