Miz-waukee’s Best — The Brandon League

Last updated Thursday, August 27 · 11:34 AM ET

☕ Morning Briefing

🏆 MIZ holds the top spot at 106.0 roto points, a comfortable 22.0 ahead of #2, but AVG is razor-thin — THAR is just .001 behind you there, and you're 6 SB short of jumping a rank in steals, so those categories need daily attention.

⚾ Your bats came alive yesterday: Kyle Schwarber went 2-5, HR, 3 RBI, Cole Carrigg went 2-6, HR, 2 RBI, 2R, Jordan Lawlar (RI 90) hit 2-3, HR, 1 RBI a day after taking a 99-mph fastball to the head and clearing concussion protocol, and Kaelen Culpepper chipped in 1-3, HR, RBI, BB — four MIZ bats going deep on the same night. Louis Varland handled the back end, picking up a save with 1.1 IP, 0 ER. Make sure Jacob Misiorowski is slotted into your active lineup for tonight.

🌱 Walker Jenkins (RI 100, Pipeline #15) went 2-4, HR, RBI, SB at AAA, and that stolen base nudges the needle on your SB gap. On the wire, Hector Rodriguez (RI 87) went 3-6, 2 HR, 2 RBI vs. the Giants in MLB action and is a free agent — worth a look given his RI and big-league production. Also on your stash board, Max Anderson (RI 88, FA) went 2-4, HR, 2 RBI at AAA, continuing to build his case.

📰 Kyle Schwarber's homer puts him among the elite power hitters of this era per recent analysis. The SF Giants rotation is in genuine crisis after losing both Carson Whisenhunt (elbow, likely TJ) and Adrian Houser (forearm) in back-to-back days, leaving Logan Webb as the only reliable arm — relevant if you're scheduling starts against them. Tyler O'Neill is heading to the IL again with a right rotator cuff strain, and Byron Buxton is day-to-day with hip discomfort that has already sent him to the IL twice since early July — both are injury-riddled roster liabilities to monitor if owned in your league. Meanwhile, Eugenio Suárez and TJ Friedl are on waivers with a decision due today; Suárez has slugged .500 with 5 HR in August but carries a $2.5M price tag for any claiming team.
ELIGIBILITYC. Carrigg SS 9/10K. Schwarber 1B 6/10P. Ramirez 1B 4/10
Your standing
1stof 12
106.0 roto pts +22.0 clear of 2nd
no change vs last update
Top Gaps
SB (7.0) W (8.0)
categories below mid-pack

🎯 Category Pressure

Category ranks vs. the league.

Rank →
Δ to #1
R
897
973
🥇
HR
258
284
🥇
RBI
837
856
🥇
SB
124
130
136
188
+58
AVG
.255
.255
.257
.258
+0.002
K
1119
1145
1230
+85
W
66
67
71
78
+11
SV
73
77
85
88
+11
ERA
3.46
3.16
🥇
WHIP
1.18
1.11
🥇

📅 Yesterday's MIZ Box Scores (2026-08-26)

Loading box scores…

🏥 IL Rehab Tracker

IL players · rehab game logs.

On the IL, no rehab games yet: James Wood (IL10), Joe Ryan (IL15), Spencer Schwellenbach (IL60 · watch).

📊 League Activity (last 24h)

All adds, drops, and trades across the 12 teams.

TeamMove
Phil Swift's Flex Seal + Jonah Cox | − Angel Martinez
Photogenic Nick Kurtz+ Sean Manaea | − Joey Cantillo
Phil Swift's Flex Seal + Christian Encarnacion-Strand | − Matthew Liberatore
Photogenic Nick Kurtz+ Hayden Wesneski | − Dustin May
Miz-waukee’s Best+ Pedro Ramirez | − Angel Genao
Phil Swift's Flex Seal + Coby Mayo | − Nathaniel Lowe

🏆 League Standings

Current roto points · 10,000-sim projected finish. FAAB = acquisition budget remaining.

99.5% to win the league · proj finish 1.0 · 101.6 roto pts

#TeamPtsFAABWin%Proj PtsRangeProj Rk
1MIZ Miz-waukee’s Best106.0$099.5%101.697–1061.0
2FRAN Hit the Damn Ball You Bums84.0$740.5%88.282–942.1
3PEYT Phil Swift's Flex Seal 74.5$340.0%77.671–843.6
4KRTZ Photogenic Nick Kurtz74.0$290.0%78.372–853.5
5GoOs I need Buck Showalter72.5$1700.0%71.365–774.9
6BLOB Camp MVP64.0$1680.0%66.762–715.9
7THAR Phil Mickeltits63.0$1760.0%60.655–667.1
8KNIG Team Knighton59.5$1370.0%55.950–628.1
9GARR The Boys of Summer52.0$1550.0%53.648–608.6
10DORN Dorn and Associates LLC 45.0$890.0%42.338–4810.9
11RAGE Ramirez Against the Machine45.0$1630.0%38.434–4311.7
12FRST Worst2First40.5$1540.0%45.540–5110.2

10,000 sims · fixed seed · noise CV talent 0.12 / idio 0.06 / team-cat 0.08 · assumes ATC rest-of-season rates

Your categories · projected roto points

R 12.0HR 12.0RBI 11.3SB 7.0AVG 8.6W 7.1SV 9.1K 10.6ERA 12.0WHIP 12.0

Winnable — push here: SB, AVG, W, SV.

🚨 Today's Streaming Board

147 of 200 GS · should be 166 · 19 behindBehind pace — stream aggressively
053 left · ~12.0/wk to cap · proj 177200

⏳ BP's post is late — Verdict pill is running on our score + Pitcher List for now (BP joins the top-2 once it posts).

Your starters + top FA streamers

PitcherMatchupVerdictBPMIZPLTake
Jacob Misiorowski@ NYMAUTO START—8.0#1Elite ace, deploy without hesitation.
Gabriel Hughes@ WSHSIT—3.9#13Favorable matchup, but command regression makes success unlikely.
Spencer Arrighettivs KCSIT⚠ opener—3.2#12Flat velo and pitch-mix imbalance remain unresolved.
Jose Cabrera@ SFSITrust—2.7#11Returning arm; strike-throwing consistency fully unresolved.
Jake Irvinvs COLSIT—2.2#10Coors exposure hurts despite velocity uptick.
Cooper Hjerpevs. BALSITopener——#14PILOT Rule role, low immediate fantasy impact expected.

Openers filtered: Gordon Graceffo

Your staff: 3.16 ERA / 1.11 WHIP · GS 147/200 — Behind pace — stream aggressively. Verdict = the best 2 of BP · our score · Pitcher List, averaged (low outlier dropped); before BP posts it's our score + PL. ⚠ = our matchup score dissented — eyeball that one. Tap a MIZ score for the reasoning.

Tomorrow · 2 of yours + top 5 FA · Fri 8/28 · BP not out yet, so pill = our score + Pitcher List

PitcherMatchupVerdictBPMIZPLTake
Dylan Ceasevs SEAAUTO START—7.5#3Elite ace, start everywhere, no caveats.
Eury Pérez@ WSHAUTO START—6.2#5Soft matchup vs. Nationals; command the zone.
Andrew Painter@ LAASTART—5.1#7Four-seamer leap, sharp breakers, new changeup is real weapon.
Jared Jones@ STLSTART—4.9#9Productive overall despite manager misuse; favorable matchup.
Quinn Mathewsvs PITSTART—5.6#15Got shelled last start but arsenal and matchup argue for
Dean Kremervs CWSDART—5.2#16Cutter/splitter functional but outcome coin-flip; median is mediocre.
Christian Scottvs HOUDART—3.8#14Rough recent outing; sweeper command key vs. RHB-heavy lineup.

📼 Streamer Report Card

Does the Streaming Board actually work? Every pick it showed, frozen at pick time and graded off the real box score. Two scoreboards below: first our own calls — the Verdict ladder and MIZ (our matchup score, 0–10) — then the outside lists behind them, BP (RelieverRecon's daily BP Streamers post) and PL (Pitcher List's tier ranking). Grades are recomputed from raw lines on every build — the rubric can change, the history follows.

Last 30d · 382 starts graded over 29 days · GOOD+ 52% · BLOWUP 16% · agg ERA 4.07 · WHIP 1.30 · 4.5 K/start · 406 picks logged, 14 never started, 10 awaiting a box score — not graded

Grade mix · all 382 graded starts

GEM 84 GOOD 116 OK 120 BLOWUP 62
GEM6+ IP, ≤1 ER · or 6+ IP, 8+ K, ≤2 ERGOODquality start (6+ IP, ≤3 ER) · or 5+ IP, ≤2 EROKheld the line without earning GOODBLOWUP5+ ER · or under 4 IP with 4+ ERGOOD+ = GEM + GOOD. A pick whose starter never took the ball grades to nothing and leaves every rate below.
CohortnGOOD+BLOWUPERA
Q1 — Do our own calls work? · Verdict ladder + MIZ bands · live board rows only, nothing backfilled
Verdict · AUTO START2171%10%3.06
Verdict · START4260%7%3.42
Verdict · DART9148%14%4.42
Verdict · SIT16848%21%4.40
MIZ ≥ 5.011360%12%3.57
MIZ 3.5–4.911351%16%4.44
MIZ < 3.58141%22%4.90
All live board picks32251%16%4.18
Q1 read — GOOD+ falls 71% · 60% · 48% · 48% down the rungs, but BLOWUP does not rise with it, and MIZ sorts: GOOD+ falls 60% · 51% · 41% from the top band down.
Q2 — Which outside list earns the weight? · BP and PL graded on their own published lists · mostly rebuilt from git
PL · Auto Start3379%6%2.85
PL · Probably Start4360%16%3.78
PL · Questionable Start9651%16%4.36
PL · Do Not Start18450%20%4.18
BP · Auto1436%7%3.94
BP · Likely5947%17%4.14
All graded picks38252%16%4.07
Q2 read — against the 52% all-picks baseline, PL's top tiers clear it (79% · 60%) and BP's top tiers are too thin to call (36% · 47% on n=14 · n=59).

Rows are overlapping lenses on the same picks, not a partition — one start can be a PL Auto Start and a Verdict SIT at once, so they never sum to the headline; each group is read against its own baseline row.

⚠ Dissent check — the override is ahead so far — 67% GOOD+ on n=9. Splits are picks the board started over our MIZ sit-call (vs 51% for all live picks).

Calibration — do our numbers mean anything? · full season, 2026-06-29→2026-08-26 · 841 graded picks · MIZ on 307, BP on 230, Verdict on 322

The ladder above asks whether the tiers sort. This asks the harder question: is the number a probability — when the board says 7, do 70% of those starts come back GOOD+? Bins are equal-count and merge until every one clears n=15; the walk-forward rows are scored against a model that only ever saw earlier days.

Score binnmeanGOOD+95% CI
MIZ score → P(GOOD+) · our matchup score, 0–10 · live rows only · n=307
MIZ 0.5–3.2622.540%29%–53%
MIZ 3.3–3.9643.648%37%–60%
MIZ 4.0–4.8614.452%40%–64%
MIZ 4.9–5.6625.252%39%–64%
MIZ 5.7–8.9586.467%54%–78%
All MIZ-scored picks307—52%—
BP score → P(GOOD+) · RelieverRecon's published rating · includes git-backfilled rows · n=230
BP 4.6–6.6486.135%23%–50%
BP 6.7–7.3447.052%38%–66%
BP 7.4–7.7477.545%31%–59%
BP 7.8–8.4478.147%33%–61%
BP 8.5–10.0449.143%30%–58%
All BP-scored picks230—44%—
Verdict tier → P(GOOD+) · the consensus call itself · live rows only
AUTO START21—71%50%–86%
START42—60%44%–73%
DART91—48%38%–58%
SIT168—48%41%–56%
Out-of-samplenvaluevs
Walk-forward probability · logistic on MIZ, refit daily on earlier days only · from 2026-08-05 · 21 days
Brier — our probability2430.248lower is better
Brier — flat base rate to date2430.256we win by 0.008
Brier — verdict-tier history2430.256we win by 0.007
Log loss — our probability2430.690lower is better
ECE — our probability2430.0575 equal-count bins
ECE bins · predicted p vs what actually happened
said 32%–48%4941%off by 3%
said 48%–52%4844%off by 7%
said 53%–57%4945%off by 10%
said 57%–61%4854%off by 4%
said 61%–74%4961%off by 4%
Verdict — usable with caveats: ECE 0.057 over n=243 out-of-sample picks (≤0.03 well calibrated · ≤0.07 usable with caveats); edges the flat base rate on Brier (0.248 vs 0.256, a thin margin; log-loss ~coin-flip).

🔥 Today's Hitter Streamers

Top 10 FA bats for today's slate · score = split vs SP hand (35%) + SP softness (35%) + bat quality (15%) + trailing 15 days (10%) + park (5%) · facing an elite arm fades the score hard (feast on weak pitchers).

#HitterMatchupWhyLegsScore
1AUTO STARTDrew GilbertRF · 0% own
vs AZ · Cabrera RHP
szn .325 xwOBAL15: 0.855 OPS (41 PA)L14 contact +6.0 (.568 xwOBAcon, 22 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)fills OF needbeats 2 of 3 eligible startersCabrera .353 allowed · soft SP0.8 OPS vs RHP (244 AB)
L15
bat
SP
L/R
park
80
2CONSIDERAndrew Vaughn1B · 4% own
@ NYM · Manaea LHP
szn .339 xwOBAL15: 0.774 OPS (44 PA)L14 contact -0.6 (.356 xwOBAcon, 28 BBE)usually bats 4th (×1.05)Manaea .336 allowed · soft SP1.041 OPS vs LHP (89 AB)
L15
bat
SP
L/R
park
77
3AUTO STARTTroy JohnstonRF · 4% own
@ WSH · Irvin RHP
szn .331 xwOBAL15: 1.080 OPS (27 PA)L14 contact +4.4 (.468 xwOBAcon, 19 BBE)usually bats 8th (×0.93)fills OF needbeats 2 of 3 eligible startersIrvin .353 allowed · soft SP0.815 OPS vs RHP (263 AB)
L15
bat
SP
L/R
park
72
4CONSIDERKyle Karros3B · 3% own
@ WSH · Irvin RHP
szn .338 xwOBAusually bats 5thIrvin .353 allowed · soft SP0.768 OPS vs RHP (221 AB)
L15
bat
SP
L/R
park
64
5STARTDylan BeaversLF · 2% own
@ STL · Graceffo RHP
szn .308 xwOBAL15: 1.143 OPS (37 PA)L14 contact +2.6 (.428 xwOBAcon, 21 BBE)usually bats 6th (×0.98)fills OF needbeats 1 of 3 eligible startersGraceffo .343 allowed · soft SP0.759 OPS vs RHP (193 AB)
L15
bat
SP
L/R
park
62
6STARTColton CowserCF · 2% own
@ STL · Graceffo RHP
szn .322 xwOBAL15: 1.024 OPS (29 PA)L14 contact +3.1 (.439 xwOBAcon, 19 BBE)usually bats 8th (×0.93)fills OF needbeats 1 of 3 eligible startersGraceffo .343 allowed · soft SP0.719 OPS vs RHP (234 AB)
L15
bat
SP
L/R
park
57
7STARTSterlin ThompsonLF · 0% own
@ WSH · Irvin RHP
szn .295 xwOBAfills OF needbeats 1 of 3 eligible startersIrvin .353 allowed · soft SP0.723 OPS vs RHP (55 AB)
L15
bat
SP
L/R
park
55
8CONSIDERMichael Massey2B · 1% own
@ TOR · Arrighetti RHP
szn .298 xwOBAL15: 1.210 OPS (34 PA)L14 contact +1.1 (.395 xwOBAcon, 28 BBE)DTD — check lineupusually bats 7th (×0.95)Arrighetti .345 allowed · soft SP0.721 OPS vs RHP (259 AB)
L15
bat
SP
L/R
park
55
9CONSIDEREdouard Julien1B · 0% own
@ WSH · Irvin RHP
szn .338 xwOBAIrvin .353 allowed · soft SP0.631 OPS vs RHP (215 AB)
L15
bat
SP
L/R
park
50
10STARTJohn RaveRF · 0% own
@ TOR · Arrighetti RHP
szn .340 xwOBAL15: 0.646 OPS (30 PA)L14 contact +0.1 (.372 xwOBAcon, 22 BBE)usually bats 7th (×0.95)fills OF needbeats 1 of 3 eligible startersArrighetti .345 allowed · soft SP0.718 OPS vs RHP (54 AB)
L15
bat
SP
L/R
park
50

Tiers vs YOUR lineup tonight — median starter 63, worst Jordan Lawlar (39). AUTO START = beats the median eligible starter.

TBD starter = neutral SP + split legs until the probable posts (refresh upgrades it). Splits need 30+ AB vs that hand. IL bats are excluded; bats who rarely start against tonight's hand are dropped. Doubleheaders: legs average the ends he plays, and everyday bats get up to a ×1.50 volume boost. Lineup slot scales the score by expected PAs from the bat's usual spot (leadoff ×1.12 … 9-hole ×0.90, modal over the last ~10 played days) — his typical order, not today's card, since that posts after waivers run.

🎯 FA Hitters — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Randy Arozarena
1Justin CrawfordCF · Phi · 3.6%CATEGORY FIT
Only positive roto sim delta; SB need is live (6 away from rank 5), projects 5 SB rest-of-season
ATC 92 PA · 1 HR · 5 SB · 0.268 · L7 0.188 · 0 HR · sim +0.1 pts
2Dylan Beavers
LF · Bal · 2.4% · HEATER
88 heat on trusted 21-BBE sample, 3 HR / 9 RBI L14, real production backing the contact quality
Heat 78 · 21 BBE · ATC 90 PA · 2 HR · 2 SB · 0.237 · L7 0.389 · 2 HR · sim -0.1 pts
3Tristan Peters
CF · ChW · 13.0% · UPSIDE
5 HR / 9 RBI last 7 days with Heat 81 on 18 BBE; absurd recent production demands roster spot despite thin ATC
L7 flare 81 · ATC 74 PA · 1 HR · 1 SB · 0.237 · L7 0.435 · 5 HR · sim +0.0 pts
4Brett Baty
3B · NYM · 2.6% · HEATER
88 heat at minimum BBE threshold (15), .600 BA last 7, AVG safe for MIZ's thin 0.255 cushion
Heat 88 · 15 BBE · ATC 75 PA · 2 HR · 1 SB · 0.235 · L7 0.6 · 0 HR · sim +0.0 pts
5Mickey Gasper
C · Bos · 6.8% · BEST VALUE
88 heat, .429 / 2 HR / 5 RBI last 7; ATC severely underestimates—hot catcher adds counting stats now
Heat 88 · 23 BBE · ATC 10 PA · 0 HR · 0 SB · 0.225 · L7 0.429 · 2 HR · sim +0.0 pts
Passed on: Drew Gilbert has solid heat (81/99, 22 BBE, elite .568 xwOBAcon) but MIZ's dominant HR/R/RBI leads mean his modest volume at .228 ATC adds nothing over the picked group.

💪 Hitter List Rankings

PL Top 150 hitters · your bats + top FAs.

On Hitter List · 18 yours · 10 FAs

RankHitterMLBPosChgAVGxwOBAHRSBRoSChu’s Take
18Randy ArozarenaSEAOF-.272.3482020123Randy Arozarena is only hitting .238 in August, but his expected stats for this month suggest it should be closer to .280. I’m a little d…
19Kyle SchwarberPHIDH+2.243.367403127When Kyle Schwarber is hot, he’s HOT. The Field of Dreams game was his second two-homer outing in his last five starts and facing the Twi…
39Yandy DíazTB1B+10.301.354193123
40Miguel VargasCHW1B/3B-10.251.3902913113Miguel Vargas continues to slump, and while there isn’t anything you should do about it from an add/drop perspective, it’s certainly frus…
57Zach NetoLAASS+4.237.3052218109
62Royce LewisMIN1B/2B/3B+8.234.3151313103
63Cole CarriggCOLOF+2.269.3196768
72Jac CaglianoneKC1B/OF+23.274.358226107Jac Caglianone has improved the strikeout rate in a huge way, and the ground ball rate is below 50%. All systems are GO.
77Dansby SwansonCHCSS+2.216.3071817101
84Ty FranceSD1B+1.288.332181106
101Tyler SoderstromATH1B/OF+5.245.328192—
102Jacob WilsonATHSS+8.266.28274—
112Tyler StephensonCINC+UR.245.33612097
114Dylan CrewsWSHOF+15.217.31810887
117Ryan JeffersMINC+15.276.357101118
122Andruw MonasterioBOS2B/SS+15.255.3026492
126Luis RengifoSD2B/3B/OF+17.245.3044687
133Cam SmithHOUOF+UR.216.3231710100OK, Cam Smith , go ahead, tease me one more time.
137Abimelec OrtizWSH1B/OF+UR.208.3245087
139Bryce EldridgeSF1B-26.252.35214199Bryce Eldridge is getting the ball in the air, but he’s not pulling it much and strikeouts have been an issue. He’s a solid hold in Dynas…
TSHenry BolteOakOF—.272.30561491Henry Bolte (OF, ATH) — Playing every day but the results aren’t overly exciting (though playing a ton of lefties lately has helped).
TSJordan LawlarAri3B/OF—.290.3323489Jordan Lawlar (3B/OF, ARI) — Has a home run in back-to-back games on his rehab, but striking out a TON. Sounds like he’ll be back this we…
TSKaelen CulpepperMinSS—.333.3373091Kaelen Culpepper (SS, MIN) — Culpepper is off to a slow start and is sitting every third day or so, but can remain an upside stash if you…
TSPedro RamirezChC2B/3B—.286.3013792Pedro Ramirez (2B/3B, CHC) — Hitting well when he plays, which is not very often.
TSWalker JenkinsMinOF—————92Walker Jenkins (OF, MIN) — Hitting extremely well in August (1.063 OPS), and the collapse of Larnach may give him a chance to break throu…
URFranklin AriasBosSS——————Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
URJames WoodWshOF—.265.4193017129Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
URRalphy VelazquezCle1B—————83Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.

🔥 Heat Board

Hottest ACTIVE free-agent bats by contact quality, 8/13–8/26 · Heat = percentile vs all MLB bats over the same window (xwOBAcon 30 · EV 20 · Brl 20 · HH 15 · K 10 · BB 5) · min 15 BBE to qualify (smaller samples live in the HM rail) · IL excluded.

89
Ryan Vilade
RF · TB · 0.2% own · xwOBAcon .651 · EV 97.5 · Brl 18.8% · 16 BBE
▲ .145 BA vs SZN
BAHRRBIRSB
SZN.2641137253
L14.4092250
88
Mickey Gasper
C · Bos · 6.8% own · xwOBAcon .618 · EV 90.8 · Brl 26.1% · 23 BBE
▲ .142 BA vs SZN
BAHRRBIRSB
SZN.275519170
L14.41751260
88
Brett Baty
3B · NYM · 2.6% own · xwOBAcon .454 · EV 93.4 · Brl 13.3% · 15 BBE
▲ .166 BA vs SZN
BAHRRBIRSB
SZN.223840455
L14.3890230
84
Randal Grichuk
RF · ChW · 0.4% own · xwOBAcon .472 · EV 92.3 · Brl 29.4% · 17 BBE
▲ .151 BA vs SZN
BAHRRBIRSB
SZN.2781132320
L14.4292750
83
Colt Keith
1B · Det · 5.3% own · xwOBAcon .467 · EV 93.8 · Brl 9.1% · 22 BBE
▼ .014 BA vs SZN
BAHRRBIRSB
SZN.264932465
L14.2501140
81
Drew Gilbert
RF · SF · 0.5% own · xwOBAcon .568 · EV 91.9 · Brl 18.2% · 22 BBE
▲ .052 BA vs SZN
BAHRRBIRSB
SZN.242734391
L14.2942970
78
Andres Chaparro
1B · Wsh · 0.6% own · xwOBAcon .475 · EV 89.4 · Brl 26.1% · 23 BBE
▲ .093 BA vs SZN
BAHRRBIRSB
SZN.252933270
L14.3453570
78
Dylan Beavers
LF · Bal · 2.4% own · xwOBAcon .428 · EV 92.6 · Brl 23.8% · 21 BBE
▲ .073 BA vs SZN
BAHRRBIRSB
SZN.250631295
L14.3233950
77
Patrick Bailey
C · Cle · 0.8% own · xwOBAcon .493 · EV 92.0 · Brl 6.2% · 16 BBE
▲ .046 BA vs SZN
BAHRRBIRSB
SZN.194730243
L14.2401731
76
Xander Bogaerts
SS · SD · 18.7% own · xwOBAcon .337 · EV 94.5 · Brl 12.9% · 31 BBE
▼ .046 BA vs SZN
BAHRRBIRSB
SZN.21711475017
L14.1711531
Honorable mention · hottest L7 (8/20–8/26), not yet on the board · tiny samples — peek, don't trust
91
Ezequiel Tovar
SS · Col
.729 xwOBAcon
9 BBE · .500 L7
82
Hao-Yu Lee
3B · Det
.468 xwOBAcon
19 BBE · .227 L7
81
Tristan Peters
CF · ChW
.518 xwOBAcon
18 BBE · .435 L7
78
Elias Diaz
C · Tex
.386 xwOBAcon
11 BBE · .167 L7
73
Nathan Lukes
RF · Tor
.418 xwOBAcon
14 BBE · .353 L7
72
Justin Foscue
2B · Tex
.400 xwOBAcon
18 BBE · .227 L7
🎯 FA Pitchers — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Sandy Alcantara
59
1Dylan SmithRP · SF · 0.5%BEST VALUE
Highest roto sim delta (+1.4), confirmed closer role, SV category live at rank 3.
Supp 59 · 14 BBE · ATC 11.0 IP · 1 W · 11 K · 3.97 · 1.33 · 4 SV · Closer · sim +1.4 pts
2Andrew Kittredge
RP · Bal · 1.7% · CATEGORY FIT
Second-best sim (+0.9), confirmed closer role, 1.21 WHIP protects ratio leads.
Supp 71 · 19 BBE · ATC 11.0 IP · 1 W · 11 K · 3.87 · 1.21 · 2 SV · Closer · sim +0.9 pts
3Grayson Rodriguez
SP · LAA · 3.4% · HEATER
86th-percentile suppression on 47 BBE trusted sample; elite xwOBAcon screams regression buy.
Supp 86 · 47 BBE · ATC 25.0 IP · 2 W · 25 K · 4.30 · 1.31 · sim +0.0 pts
4Joey Cantillo
RP · Cle · 27.2% · HEATER
93rd-percentile suppression on 39 BBE trusted sample; 4.05 ERA/29 K adds K volume safely.
Supp 93 · 39 BBE · ATC 28.0 IP · 2 W · 29 K · 4.05 · 1.33 · sim +0.0 pts
5Juan Morillo
RP · Ari · 2.6% · CATEGORY FIT
Confirmed closer, +0.8 sim, 93rd-percentile suppression—though 10 BBE limits full trust.
Supp 93 · 10 BBE · ATC 11.0 IP · 1 W · 11 K · 3.83 · 1.35 · 1 SV · Closer · sim +0.8 pts
Passed on: Max Scherzer has elite 92nd-percentile suppression on a trusted 45-BBE sample but ATC projects 4.77 ERA threatening MIZ's dominant #1 ERA/WHIP leads, making the ratio bleed unacceptable.

⚾ Pitcher List Rankings

PL Top 100 SP · your arms + top FAs.

On Pitcher List · 6 yours · 10 FAs

RankPitcherMLBChgERAxERAK/9RoSPollack’s Take
1Jacob MisiorowskiMIL-1.681.9813.43.32Like a base set Charizard, Misiorowski’s not gonna stop being dope.
9Blake SnellLAD+72.572.2911.13.42#HotSnellSummer is in full swing.
10Dylan CeaseTOR-12.372.6813.03.45Like a perfect burger without the condiments to hit all your macros, Cease gives you everything except for a stable WHIP due to his infla…
20Kyle HarrisonMIL+82.793.2411.14.12With a dominant outing, he muted our concerns, but Harrison’s still displaying decreased velocity and not commanding as well as he did in…
22Eury PérezMIA-43.173.679.73.87Pérez has the stuff to be an ace, but there’s polishing to do in the command and game plan departments to unlock his full potential.
30Sandy AlcantaraMIA-43.383.646.74.19Baseball’s premier innings eater hasn’t ruined his appetite.
38Jacob LopezATH+64.983.368.64.63It’s the 2025 hot streak all over again. Enjoy the ride, ya’ll!
39Dustin MayMIL-4.564.208.54.09May got Singled Out in a disastrous performance, but his stuff is still dope, and his new situation is ideal. Higher win chance, great de…
40Walbert UreñaLAA-2.943.448.74.54Armed with upper-90s heaters and one of the best changeups in baseball, Ureña has hit few speed bumps. If that developing sweeper becomes…
43Andrew PainterPHI+UR6.044.817.74.78From off The List to inside the Top 50, Painter has stolen our hearts with an improved heater (97+ mph with 17-18″ iVB) and emphasis on r…
45Peter LambertHOU-43.663.548.84.58Lambert’s stumble last time was a product of being Singled Out . He’s been reliable all year, but we should be recognizing that Holly is …
46Jared JonesPIT-84.763.6710.23.99The stuff is top-tier, but he’s still shaking off the Tommy John surgery rust with his command and the tight leash the Pirates have on hi…
54Joey CantilloCLE-83.703.979.64.05Efficiency is a problem, but Cantillo is doing everything we want. More curveballs, faster fastballs, and supportive cutters. Throw more …
56Shane BieberTOR+144.375.947.14.19Bieber is back in business. His heater looked awesome in The Trop, and his offspeed pitches are being the CSW monsters they need to be to…
57Tyler MahleATL-4.414.288.54.10Mahle’s command and velocity have been stellar since returning from the IL in late June. He’s got an even better situation pitching in At…
58Brandon PfaadtARI-3.513.756.24.60Despite what the line suggests, Pfaadt’s last start wasn’t an end to his Vargas Rule . It was a textbook Careful, Icarus with a three-run…

🔒 Closer Chart

Save targets · roles + regression flags.

BLUEEntrenched closer (highest leverage)GREENNext man up / committee pieceYELLOWSetup, 8th-inning leverageORANGESpeculative / lower priorityMAGENTAHigh-upside future / multi-inning
PitcherTmRoleSVSVHDIPERAWHIPxERAK/9Rtg / Own
Yours on the chart
—Andrés MuñozSeattle MarinersCL242448.34.281.223.3114.35.0 · —
—Louis VarlandToronto Blue JaysCL303567.71.200.992.20 ↑11.05.0 · —
—Justin MartinezArizona DiamondbacksFU003.00.001.003.54 ↑6.01.0 · —
Top 5 FA closers (by team rating)
—Calvin FaucherMiami MarlinsCL21656.33.991.373.7210.13.5 · 1%
Andrew KittredgeBaltimore OriolesCL71640.33.351.364.027.43.0 · 2%
Dylan SmithSan Francisco GiantsCL31028.73.451.363.7011.33.0 · 1%
Juan MorilloArizona DiamondbacksCL21952.32.241.012.2910.31.0 · 3%
🌱 Green-tagged FA — upside / stash
Carson SeymourSan Francisco GiantsST1417.35.191.566.29 ↑7.33.0 · 0%

ERA cell: green <3.00 · red >4.50. xERA arrow: ↓ ERA likely to fall (buy) · ↑ ERA likely to rise (sell). Triggers when |xERA−ERA| ≥ 1.00.

✂️ Cut List

Drop priority · value, form, pedigree, role.

49
Royce Lewis 3B · Min
low TV (17)
sim cost ~0
TV 17
Rd 13
31
Justin Martinez RP · Ari
low TV (16); BUT fresh-callup upside; BUT strong RoS (3.46 ERA)
sim −0.41% win if cut
TV 16
UFDA
19
Ryan Jeffers C · Min
mid TV (36); BUT top-tier keeper; BUT young breakout signal
sim cost ~0
TV 36
UFDA
14
Kyle Harrison SP · Mil
mid TV (60); UFDA — easy to drop; BUT top-tier keeper
sim cost ~0
TV 60
UFDA
11
Sandy Alcantara SP · Mia
BUT solid keeper
sim cost ~0
TV 72
Rd 14

Higher score = drop sooner — top 5 by score, and only 8+ reaches the board, so the number has no ceiling and is only comparable within this list. The sim line is a roto-sim marginal (cut vs. keep on one shared set of draws), not a measured cost. Pedigree + named closers shielded.

🌱 Stash List

PL's top prospects · grab them cheap.

Hitters

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 22: Top 10 Hitting Prospects to Stash

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + PSS + PFV + age + 40-man + path.

24 available — 3 yours

W. Jenkins YOURS
OF · MIN · AAA · 21 · knocking on the door
100
PSS
85
PFV
61
ETA
days
Szn
14·17·.323
F. Arias YOURS
SS · BOS · AAA · 20 · knocking on the door
90
PSS
70
PFV
60
ETA
days
Szn
23·6·.313
R. Velazquez YOURS
1B/C · CLE · AA · 20 · nearly ready
84
PSS
76
PFV
57
ETA
Sept
Szn
27·2·.292
J. Tibbs III
OF · LAD · AAA · 23 · knocking on the door
100
PSS
88
PFV
54
ETA
days
Szn
27·7·.298
S. Thompson
OF · COL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down
95
PSS
80
PFV
55
ETA
1-3wk
Szn
12·16·.300
B. Davidson
OF · SFG · AAA · 24 · knocking on the door
92
PSS
86
PFV
42
ETA
September
Szn
25·19·.284
M. Anderson
2B · DET · AAA · 24 · nearly ready
88
PSS
71
PFV
52
ETA
1-3wk
Szn
16·5·.309
S. King
SS/2B/3B · WSN · AAA · 23 · nearly ready
88
PSS
79
PFV
50
ETA
1-3wk
Szn
18·14·.323
J. Melton
OF · TB · AAA · 25 · nearly ready
87
PSS
79
PFV
58
ETA
1-3wk
Szn
7·26·.307
C. Cannarella
OF · MIA · AAA · 22 · nearly ready
87
PSS
76
PFV
50
ETA
1-3wk
Szn
13·20·.334
L. Montes
OF · SEA · AAA · 21 · nearly ready
84
PSS
74
PFV
56
ETA
1-3wk
Szn
37·6·.248
M. Arroyo
SS · SEA · AAA · 21 · nearly ready
84
PSS
46
PFV
55
ETA
days
Szn
17·16·.281
Y. Morales
3B · WSN · AAA · 24 · nearly ready
83
PSS
78
PFV
47
ETA
1-3wk
Szn
24·5·.286
P. Harber
3B · SFG · AAA · 24 · nearly ready
83
PSS
58
PFV
54
ETA
'27
Szn
17·4·.290
R. Ward
LF · LAD · AAA · 28 · ↩ sent down
82
PSS
84
PFV
51
ETA
1-3wk
Szn
20·7·.254
C. Ingle
C · CLE · ↩ sent down
82
PSS
79
PFV
48
ETA
1-3wk
Szn
18·2·.286
H. Mendez
OF · MIN · AAA · 22 · nearly ready
80
PSS
68
PFV
58
ETA
Sept
Szn
12·4·.279
J. Long
1B · CHC · AAA · 24 · nearly ready
79
PSS
67
PFV
52
ETA
4-8wk
Szn
13·3·.278
K. Alderman
OF · MIA · AAA · 23 · nearly ready
79
PSS
72
PFV
49
ETA
4-8wk
Szn
18·10·.262
E. Arroyo
SS · CIN · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down
77
PSS
69
PFV
49
ETA
4-8wk
Szn
15·14·.288
Z. Hope
OF · DET · AA · 21 · on the climb
77
PSS
94
PFV
60
ETA
Sept
Szn
26·22·.275
E. Salas
C · SDP · AAA · 20 · on the climb
76
PSS
80
PFV
52
ETA
September
Szn
10·16·.290
J. Made
SS · MIL · AA · 19 · on the climb
73
PSS
97
PFV
64
ETA
Sept
Szn
13·33·.273
D. Crisantes
2B/3B · ARI · AAA · 21 · on the climb
68
PSS
16
PFV
58
ETA
4-8wk
Szn
9·0·.293
Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

Pitchers

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 22: Top 10 Pitching Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + L3 quality + FV + age + 40-man + path.

27 available

J. Tong
SP · NYM · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down
90
PSS
36
PFV
60
ETA
—
Szn
125K·4.75
A. Kelly
SP · PIT · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down
88
PSS
18
PFV
61
ETA
—
Szn
70K·4.21
T. Johnson
SP · TBR · AAA · 24 · nearly ready
80
PSS
89
PFV
60
ETA
—
Szn
80K·2.90
C. Crow
SP · MIL · ↩ sent down
80
PSS
47
PFV
57
ETA
—
Szn
89K·3.55
T. Bremner
SP · LAA · AA · 22 · nearly ready
79
PSS
99
PFV
66
ETA
'26
Szn
84K·4.26
M. Bratt
SP · ARI · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down
78
PSS
80
PFV
68
ETA
—
Szn
79K·3.33
D. Davalillo
SP · TEX · AAA · 24 · nearly ready
78
PSS
46
PFV
62
ETA
—
Szn
91K·5.01
J. Ritchie
SP · ATL · ↩ sent down
76
PSS
36
PFV
59
ETA
—
Szn
114K·3.83
M. Forret
SP · BAL · AAA · 22 · on the climb
73
PSS
77
PFV
72
ETA
—
Szn
115K·3.85
T. McDougal
SP · CHW · AAA · 23 · ↩ sent down
71
PSS
41
PFV
57
ETA
—
Szn
47K·4.43
B. Garrett
SP · ↩ sent down
70
PSS
80
PFV
62
ETA
June 1st
Szn
101K·3.68
M. Wilkinson
SP · SFG · AAA · 23 · ↩ sent down
70
PSS
34
PFV
58
ETA
—
Szn
98K·3.57
R. Sloan
SP · SEA · AA · 20 · on the climb
69
PSS
100
PFV
64
ETA
—
Szn
111K·3.63
B. Mautz
SP · STL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down
68
PSS
44
PFV
57
ETA
—
Szn
91K·3.86
C. Dana
SP · LAA · AAA · 22 · on the climb
67
PSS
36
PFV
58
ETA
—
Szn
72K·5.90
G. Wood
P · PHI · AA · 22 · on the climb
66
PSS
99
PFV
48
ETA
'26
Szn
117K·4.11
M. Ullola
SP · HOU · ↩ sent down
65
PSS
73
PFV
52
ETA
—
Szn
94K·4.41
O. Murphy
SP · ATL · ↩ sent down
64
PSS
55
PFV
64
ETA
—
Szn
119K·3.95
J. Wenninger
SP · NYM · on the climb
64
PSS
28
PFV
66
ETA
—
Szn
104K·4.17
B. Hopkins
SP · TBR · on the climb
62
PSS
43
PFV
63
ETA
—
Szn
111K·5.52
T. Gibson
SP · BAL · ↩ sent down
61
PSS
40
PFV
62
ETA
—
Szn
94K·5.15
K. Curtis
SP · PIT · ↩ sent down
60
PSS
40
PFV
55
ETA
—
Szn
109K·4.65
L. Braun
SP · ATL · developing
50
PSS
40
PFV
54
ETA
—
Szn
101K·3.72
Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

🔭 11 not a 2026 factor — Liam Doyle · Anthony Eyanson · Christian Zazueta · Jamie Arnold · Joseph Dzierwa · Jaxon Wiggins · Nestor German · Tyson Hardin · Jurrangelo Cijntje · Jonathan Santucci · Karson Milbrandt

💼 Trades

Buy-low targets · league trade history.

Top Buy-Lows

Rebound candidates · suggested offers.

Hitters

VerdictTargetOwnRoSTitle ΔSuggested offer
📈 BUY-LOWTrent Grisham CF · NYY · RAGE · glhoward40
+1.2σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.219 / xBA 0.249 · xwOBA 0.343
34%113 wRC+≈ 0.1%Franklin Arias SS + Royce Lewis 3B + +$5 FAAB · two-piece package (TV 26 vs target 37)
📈 BUY-LOWJJ Bleday CF · Cin · RAGE · glhoward40
+1.3σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.219 / xBA 0.245 · xwOBA 0.351
24%104 wRC+≈ 0.1%Franklin Arias SS + Royce Lewis 3B · two-piece package (TV 26 vs target 27)
📈 BUY-LOWRonald Acuna Jr. RF · Atl · GoOs · My Best Guys
+1.2σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.228 / xBA 0.251 · xwOBA 0.357
98%136 wRC+≈ 0.1%Blake Snell SP + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 79 vs target 86)
📈 BUY-LOWHeriberto Hernandez LF · Mia · FRAN · francisw789
+1.1σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.234 / xBA 0.250 · xwOBA 0.350
3%98 wRC+≈ 0.1%Royce Lewis 3B · comparable value (TV 17 vs target 23)
↑ mild buyTaylor Ward LF · Sea · GoOs · My Best Guys
+0.6σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.231 / xBA 0.244 · xwOBA 0.339
61%118 wRC+≈ 0.1%Kyle Harrison SP · comparable value (TV 60 vs target 60)
↑ mild buyKyle Stowers LF · Mia · KNIG · TKHOO
+0.7σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.242 / xBA 0.233 · xwOBA 0.330
28%111 wRC+≈ 0.0%Franklin Arias SS + Royce Lewis 3B · two-piece package (TV 26 vs target 27)
↑ mild buyBrandon Nimmo LF · Tex · DORN · Lambertmt48
+0.6σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.259 / xBA 0.280 · xwOBA 0.355
67%119 wRC+≈ 0.0%Walker Jenkins CF + Jac Caglianone RF · two-piece package (TV 53 vs target 45)
↑ mild buyDominic Canzone RF · Sea · GARR · jregarris
+0.6σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.256 / xBA 0.269 · xwOBA 0.355
12%113 wRC+≈ 0.0%Franklin Arias SS + Royce Lewis 3B + +$4 FAAB · two-piece package (TV 26 vs target 34)
📈 BUY-LOWMike Trout OF · LAA · KNIG · TKHOO
+1.4σ buy-low · OF — fits a need · BA 0.241 / xBA 0.254 · xwOBA 0.383
95%127 wRC+≈ 0.1%Sandy Alcantara SP · comparable value (TV 72 vs target 77)
↑ mild buyOneil Cruz CF · Pit · PEYT · simplejack2k9
+1.0σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.257 / xBA 0.252 · xwOBA 0.361
83%105 wRC+≈ 0.0%Kyle Harrison SP · comparable value (TV 60 vs target 61)

Pitchers

VerdictTargetOwnRoSTitle ΔSuggested offer
📈 BUY-LOWKodai Senga SP · NYM · KRTZ · FratSkins
+1.5σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 7.79 vs xERA 4.97
10%3.96 ERA≈ 0.2%Franklin Arias SS · comparable value (TV 9 vs target 14)
↑ mild buyFreddy Peralta SP · TB · KNIG · TKHOO
+0.7σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 5.11 vs xERA 3.97
69%4.01 ERA≈ 0.0%Walker Jenkins CF + Jac Caglianone RF · two-piece package (TV 53 vs target 43)
↑ mild buyLanden Roupp SP · SF · FRST · prestonc51684
+0.6σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.34 vs xERA 3.75
24%3.98 ERA≈ 0.1%Royce Lewis 3B · comparable value (TV 17 vs target 19)
↑ mild buyBryce Miller SP · Sea · BLOB · crenshawh19
+0.6σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.12 vs xERA 3.17
36%4.10 ERA≈ 0.0%Jac Caglianone RF · comparable value (TV 51 vs target 48)

League History

Completed trades · frozen grade at the deal + live grade now.

SideSentAt dealNowTrend
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Hit the Damn Ball You BumsAndy PagesA- +7A+ +44▲ up
Camp MVPPete Crow-ArmstrongC -7F -44▼ down
Team Knighton ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Team KnightonMatthew BoydF -22F -22
Camp MVPKenley JansenA+ +22A+ +22
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Worst2First 2026-08-10
Miz-waukee’s BestCharlie Condon, Payton TolleA+ +50A+ +35▼ down
Worst2FirstDylan CeaseF -50F -35▲ up
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Dorn and Associates LLC 2026-08-05
Photogenic Nick KurtzTravis Bazzana, George Lombard Jr., Nolan McLeanA+ +144A+ +106▼ down
Dorn and Associates LLC Jackson Chourio, Jhoan Duran, Brice Turang, David BednarF -144F -106▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-07-31
Miz-waukee’s BestSamuel Basallo, Kade AndersonA- +8A +8
Ramirez Against the MachineBlake SnellC -8D -8
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Team Knighton 2026-07-23
Photogenic Nick KurtzJo Adell, Jacob deGromF -49F -63▼ down
Team KnightonTrea TurnerA+ +49A+ +63▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine ⇄ Miz-waukee’s Best 2026-07-19
Ramirez Against the MachineSandy AlcantaraF -42F -68▼ down
Miz-waukee’s BestJosh JungA+ +42A+ +68▲ up
I need Buck Showalter ⇄ Hit the Damn Ball You Bums 2026-06-19
I need Buck ShowalterNasim NunezA+ +28B +1▼ down
Hit the Damn Ball You BumsJustin WrobleskiF -28B -1▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ The Boys of Summer 2026-06-12
Miz-waukee’s BestChandler SimpsonA +10A- +7▼ down
The Boys of Summer$30 FAABD -10C -7▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-05-01
Miz-waukee’s BestKenley Jansen—A- +6
Camp MVP$30 FAABA- +3C -6▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-04-22
Miz-waukee’s BestNathan Eovaldi, $70 FAAB—F -16
Ramirez Against the MachineJac CaglianoneA+ +60A+ +16▼ down

🔻 Sell-High — My Roster

Surface line outrunning the underlying skill — trade-value peaks. σ = his surface-stat z-score minus his Statcast-skill z-score, both against the league reference for his side — bigger σ = further ahead of the skill. Pair with Buy-Low Targets.

VerdictPlayerOwnSurface vs expectedContact2027 keeper
↓ SHOPHenry Bolte RF · Oak
0.69σ sell-high · RF · BA 0.272 / xBA 0.242 · xwOBA 0.305 — test the market, don't force it
4%BA 0.272 / xBA 0.242 +.030
wOBA 0.324 / xwOBA 0.305 +.019		HH 47.4% · Brl/PA 4.3%25th · +2 rds vs mkt
↓ SHOPYandy Diaz 1B · TB
0.63σ sell-high · 1B · BA 0.301 / xBA 0.286 · xwOBA 0.354 — test the market, don't force it
93%BA 0.301 / xBA 0.286 +.015
wOBA 0.361 / xwOBA 0.354 +.007		HH 47.1% · Brl/PA 5.1%7th · +1 rd vs mkt
HOLD — KEEPER PRICELouis Varland RP · Tor
0.43σ sell-high · RP · ERA 1.20 vs xERA 2.20 — only move for keeper-grade return
86%ERA 1.20 / xERA 2.20 -1.00Brl 4.3% allowed22nd · +16 rds vs mkt

👥 Your Roster

Your roster · news + buy/sell signals.

News (last 24h)

Player news · last 24h.

Leverage Buys/Sells

Buy/sell windows · surface vs. underlying.

Hitters

PlayerPosMLBBAxBAwOBAxwOBABrl%Own%Signal
James Wood IL10LFWsh0.2650.2750.3950.419100.099.1📈 BUY-LOW
Miguel Vargas3BChW0.2510.2680.3710.39093.095.1📈 BUY-LOW
Kyle SchwarberDHPhi0.2430.2380.3790.36798.099.6📈 BUY-LOW
Bryce Eldridge BRV1BSF0.2520.2510.3430.35276.08.1↑ mild buy
Jac CaglianoneRFKC0.2740.2780.3500.35892.054.5↑ mild buy
Zach NetoSSLAA0.2370.2090.3280.30578.060.3fair
Randy ArozarenaLFSea0.2720.2600.3660.34850.093.8fair
Yandy Diaz1BTB0.3010.2860.3610.35441.092.7↓ mild fade
Cole CarriggCFCol0.2690.2510.3490.319—14.2fair
Ryan JeffersCMin0.2760.2560.3720.35773.041.1fair
Henry BolteRFOak0.2720.2420.3240.30545.04.4↓ mild fade
Kaelen CulpepperSSMin0.3330.2670.3920.337—4.5fair
Royce Lewis3BMin0.2340.2430.3080.31572.017.5↑ mild buy
Walker JenkinsCFMin—————2.4—
Jordan Lawlar3BAri0.2900.2700.3660.332—3.2fair
Franklin AriasSSBos—————1.4—
Ralphy Velazquez1BCle—————0.8—
Pedro Ramirez3BChC0.2860.2660.3350.301—2.0fair

Pitchers

PitcherPosMLBIPERAWHIPxERAK-BB%xwOBA-aBrl%-aOwn%Signal
Blake SnellSPLAD21.02.571.052.2919.50.2360.088.2↑ mild buy
Andres MunozRPSea48.34.281.223.3127.90.2839.480.1↑ mild buy
Joe Ryan IL15SPMin125.74.081.153.4921.20.29010.590.1fair
Jacob MisiorowskiSPMil145.01.680.761.9833.30.2193.899.6fair
Dylan CeaseSPTor144.32.371.062.6825.00.2554.699.3fair
Sandy AlcantaraSPMia183.73.381.183.6411.60.2965.391.2fair
Kyle HarrisonSPMil103.32.791.123.2423.60.2806.878.2fair
Eury PerezSPMia127.73.171.113.6716.50.2979.182.5fair
Louis VarlandRPTor67.71.200.992.2024.60.2314.386.3↓ mild fade
Justin MartinezRPAri3.00.001.003.540.00.2920.01.7—

📰 MLB News — Top Fantasy Stories

Top fantasy stories · last 24h.

🔒 Keepers — 2027 Slate

Peter's model (additive): rounds-saved (cost arbitrage spine) + current skill + career-grade pedigree + sample stability + Statcast over/under-performance trend, with age-decline (33+), closer/RP, and top-30 talent adjustments. Heavy on bargain-hunting.
Claude's model (multiplicative dynasty index): EFV(2027) = (3 + skill + upside) × age_mult × pos_mult; score = EFV − cost_replacement − mookie-lock. Compounds age curve and position scarcity.
Sorted by consensus rank (average of both models). MLB-inactive players surfaced in 🚑 Return Watch below.

Cons
Rank		PlayerPos · Age2027
Cost		PeterClaudeVerdictNotes
1.0Jacob MisiorowskiSP · 22yo21st#1 (+24.4)#1 (+50.8)S · $51UFDA-G FV 55
2.5Miguel Vargas3B · 26yo25th#2 (+23.5)#3 (+19.8)S · $20UFDA
2.5Louis VarlandRP · 28yo22nd#3 (+21.3)#2 (+27.1)S · $27
5.0Eury PerezSP · 23yo20th#4 (+18.6)#6 (+15.2)A · $15UFDA-G
5.0Kyle HarrisonSP · 24yo25th#5 (+18.1)#5 (+15.8)A · $16UFDA
5.5Zach NetoSS · 25yo10th#7 (+13.5)#4 (+16.1)A · $16
6.5Bryce Eldridge1B · 20yo25th#6 (+16.0)#7 (+13.7)A · $14UFDA FV 55
8.5Jac CaglianoneRF · 22yo21st#8 (+13.4)— (+10.5)A · $10UFDA-G FV 55
8.5Dylan CeaseSP · 30yo4th— (+11.9)#8 (+11.7)A · $12

NEW UFDA cap: Peter 3/3 · Claude 3/3 · BOTH = top 8 in both models. Peter only = his model values cost surplus more; Claude only = mine values projection / position scarcity more.

🚑 Return watch — would be keeper-eligible if they get MLB action this year. Rank shown is hypothetical (where they'd slot if eligible).

PlayerPos · AgeCostPeter (if elig.)Claude (if elig.)
Walker JenkinsCF · 20yo25th#15 (-2.0)#12 (+1.4)
Franklin AriasSS · 19yo25th#15 (-2.0)#12 (+3.0)
Ralphy Velazquez1B · 19yo25th#15 (-2.0)#12 (+1.4)

Updated Thu Aug 27 · 11:34 AM ET

🌍 League-Wide Top Keepers

Top 10 keepers · all 12 teams · both models. Yours in green.

Cons
Rank		PlayerPos · AgeTeam2027
Cost		PeterClaudeVerdict
1.5Jesus LuzardoSP · 28yoKNIG21st#1 (+28.7)#2 (+42.1)S · $42
3.0Jacob MisiorowskiSP · 22yoMIZ21st#5 (+24.4)#1 (+50.8)S · $51
3.5Jordan WalkerRF · 24yoGARR25th#2 (+27.5)#5 (+38.7)S · $39
3.5Bryan BakerRP · 31yoDORN25th#3 (+25.2)#4 (+38.7)S · $39
7.0Cam SchlittlerSP · 24yoKRTZ19th— (+20.3)#3 (+40.8)S · $41
7.5Payton TolleSP · 22yoFRST25th#4 (+25.0)— (+21.2)S · $21
7.5Otto LopezSS · 27yoBLOB20th#9 (+22.4)#6 (+33.9)S · $34
8.5Miguel Vargas3B · 26yoMIZ25th#6 (+23.5)— (+19.8)S · $20
8.5Nolan McLeanSP · 23yoDORN20th#10 (+22.4)#7 (+32.7)S · $33
9.0Ben Rice1B · 27yoDORN20th#7 (+23.2)— (+24.0)S · $24
9.5Jose SorianoSP · 27yoBLOB25th#8 (+22.5)— (+19.8)S · $20
9.5Foster GriffinSP · 30yoGoOs25th— (+21.8)#8 (+29.9)S · $30
10.0Louis VarlandRP · 28yoMIZ22nd— (+21.3)#9 (+27.1)S · $27
10.5Drew RasmussenSP · 30yoTHAR8th— (+13.6)#10 (+26.0)S · $26

Updated Thu Aug 27 · 11:34 AM ET

🏚️ Keeper Cupboards

Every team's six best keepers · shade = dual-model consensus value. Cupboard score weights the top four heavily (the slots that get kept), keepers 5–8 taper. 100 = league's best cupboard.

TeamK1K2K3K4K5K6Cupboard
1MIZMisiorowskiR21VargasR25VarlandR22PerezR20HarrisonR25NetoR10100
2DORNBakerR25RiceR20McLeanR20PerdomoR21WarrenR25KingR691
3GARRWalkerR25MessickR18DinglerR22CanzoneR25RocchioR25GrayR779
4KNIGLuzardoR21AbreuR15MartinezR25deGromR13RodriguezR25DuranR2579
5KRTZSchlittlerR19BengeR25BurkeR25McGonigleR17StewartR10ManaeaR2578
6FRANCavalliR21McCarthyR25LatzR25BradishR21BurnsR5AntonacciR2573
7GoOsGriffinR25BradleyR25GoodmanR21BurlesonR9BaldwinR14WachaR2573
8BLOBSorianoR25LopezR20ScottR25LileR15SuarezR12ArandaR1468
9THARRasmussenR8GonzalesR25O'BrienR17WilliamsR11MizeR19LeeR2563
10FRSTTolleR25RouppR25WheelerR8RumfieldR25DurbinR17SkubalR160
11PEYT ▼ thinSanchezR9HendersonR25WooR8WetherholtR13CameronR18NolaR1654
12RAGE ▼ thinEwingR25CamineroR5HerreraR20LeeR21BledayR25BibeeR1454

The bottom two rows are your trade marks — thin cupboards pay up for keepable pieces.

data: snap 4h · BP 2d · PL 2d · HL 12d · PSS 7h · BR 0h · FG 3h · proj 3h · closer 0h · oyster 24h · AAA-sc 13h · cookie ok
Scheduled updates