Miz-waukee’s Best — The Brandon League

Last updated Friday, August 28 · 06:20 AM ET

☕ Morning Briefing

🏆 MIZ sits at 106.0 roto points, a comfortable 21.5 clear of second-place Hit the Damn Ball You Bums — but two closer spots demand attention before anything else (more below).

⚡ Your guys delivered yesterday: Jac Caglianone went 5-for-6 with a HR, 6 RBI, and 3 runs against the Blue Jays, and Jacob Misiorowski backed him up with 6 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K and a win against the Mets — a strong dual-threat day across both hitting and pitching.

🚨 Two closer slots just opened up and both new guys are free agents: Carson Seymour takes over saves in San Francisco, and Orlando Ribalta inherits the Washington closer role — grab whichever fits your roster given that KRTZ is only 4 SV behind you in your most vulnerable category. Also note that Tanner Scott's role-security signal in LA turned uncertain (owned by BLOB), so monitor that situation. Tonight, get Eury Perez and Dylan Cease into your active lineup.

📊 On the waiver wire beyond closers, Andrew Kittredge (BAL confirmed closer, sim +1.0) is the clearest value add, and Mickey Gasper (C, BOS — 88/99 contact heat on 23 BBE, .618 xwOBAcon, 5 HR and 12 RBI over his last 14 games) is a legitimate catcher option if you need the position. Two early-signal contact heat flips worth a watchlist note: Drew Cavanaugh (86/99, 9 BBE) and Hao-Yu Lee (83/99, 19 BBE) — small samples, not yet on the Heat Board, but Lee's volume is starting to give the number some weight.

📰 The most notable MLB transaction for the broader landscape: Roki Sasaki (owned by RAGE) landed on the 15-day IL with a right middle finger blister, a significant blow to that squad. The Blue Jays signed Michael Lorenzen (available), worth a look if you need SP depth, though he's a far cry from a difference-maker at this stage of the season.
ELIGIBILITYC. Carrigg SS 9/10K. Schwarber 1B 6/10P. Ramirez 1B 4/10
Your standing
1stof 12
106.0 roto pts +21.5 clear of 2nd
no change vs last update
Top Gaps
SB (7.0) W (8.0)
categories below mid-pack

🎯 Category Pressure

Category ranks vs. the league.

Rank →
Δ to #1
R
898
976
🥇
HR
258
285
🥇
RBI
840
862
🥇
SB
125
131
136
190
+59
AVG
.254
.256
.257
.258
+0.002
K
1120
1151
1244
+93
W
66
68
71
78
+10
SV
73
77
85
88
+11
ERA
3.43
3.16
🥇
WHIP
1.17
1.11
🥇

📅 Yesterday's MIZ Box Scores (2026-08-27)

Loading box scores…

🏥 IL Rehab Tracker

IL players · rehab game logs.

On the IL, no rehab games yet: James Wood (IL10), Joe Ryan (IL15), Spencer Schwellenbach (IL60 · watch).

📊 League Activity (last 24h)

All adds, drops, and trades across the 12 teams.

TeamMove
Miz-waukee’s Best− Franklin Arias
Phil Swift's Flex Seal + Jonah Cox | − Angel Martinez
Photogenic Nick Kurtz+ Sean Manaea | − Joey Cantillo
Phil Swift's Flex Seal + Christian Encarnacion-Strand | − Matthew Liberatore
Photogenic Nick Kurtz+ Hayden Wesneski | − Dustin May
Miz-waukee’s Best+ Pedro Ramirez | − Angel Genao
Phil Swift's Flex Seal + Coby Mayo | − Nathaniel Lowe

🏆 League Standings

Current roto points · 10,000-sim projected finish. FAAB = acquisition budget remaining.

99.8% to win the league · proj finish 1.0 · 102.3 roto pts

#TeamPtsFAABWin%Proj PtsRangeProj Rk
1MIZ Miz-waukee’s Best106.0$099.8%102.398–1061.0
2FRAN Hit the Damn Ball You Bums84.5$740.2%87.682–942.1
3PEYT Phil Swift's Flex Seal 76.0$340.0%78.172–853.6
4KRTZ Photogenic Nick Kurtz74.5$290.0%79.172–863.4
5GoOs I need Buck Showalter74.0$1700.0%71.265–775.0
6BLOB Camp MVP67.0$1680.0%67.863–725.7
7THAR Phil Mickeltits62.5$1760.0%59.654–657.3
8KNIG Team Knighton58.0$1370.0%56.250–628.0
9GARR The Boys of Summer52.0$1550.0%53.147–598.6
10RAGE Ramirez Against the Machine43.0$1630.0%37.734–4211.8
11DORN Dorn and Associates LLC 42.5$890.0%42.138–4710.8
12FRST Worst2First40.0$1540.0%45.441–5110.1

10,000 sims · fixed seed · noise CV talent 0.12 / idio 0.06 / team-cat 0.08 · assumes ATC rest-of-season rates

Your categories · projected roto points

R 12.0HR 12.0RBI 11.5SB 7.0AVG 8.8W 7.3SV 9.1K 10.7ERA 12.0WHIP 12.0

Winnable — push here: SB, AVG, W, SV.

🚨 Today's Streaming Board

148 of 200 GS · should be 168 · 20 behindBehind pace — stream aggressively
052 left · ~12.1/wk to cap · proj 177200

⏳ BP's post is late — Verdict pill is running on our score + Pitcher List for now (BP joins the top-2 once it posts).

Your starters + top FA streamers

PitcherMatchupVerdictBPMIZPLTake
Eury Perez@ WSHAUTO START—6.2#5Nationals matchup; strike-throwing is the only ask.
Dylan Ceasevs SEAAUTO START—7.2#3Elite tier, no caveats.
Jacob Lopezvs. BALAUTO START——#8Start contingent on maintaining his signature approach.
Andrew Painter@ LAASTART—5.1#7Overhauled arsenal clicking; changeup a genuine new weapon.
Jared Jones@ STLSTART—4.9#9Productive overall despite managerial frustrations; favorable matchup.
Quinn Mathewsvs PITSTART—5.6#15Blown up last outing but arsenal quality and Pirates matchup
Dean Kremervs CWSDART—5.2#16Cutter/splitter credible, but outcomes are genuinely coin-flip.
Christian Scottvs HOUDART—3.8#14Recent rough stretch; sweeper command against heavy RHB lineup a
Cody Bradford@ MILDART—3.5#1790 mph slot pitcher; razor-thin margin for error.
Blade Tidwellvs AZSIT⚠ opener—5.7#24Insufficient stamina to reach five quality frames.
David Petersonvs CINSIT—4.0#2017 whiffs last outing signals legitimate upside is present.
Kohl Drake@ SFSIT—4.3#27Unproven even in pitcher-friendly Oracle Park.

Your staff: 3.16 ERA / 1.11 WHIP · GS 148/200 — Behind pace — stream aggressively. Verdict = the best 2 of BP · our score · Pitcher List, averaged (low outlier dropped); before BP posts it's our score + PL. ⚠ = our matchup score dissented — eyeball that one. Tap a MIZ score for the reasoning.

Tomorrow · 2 of yours + top 5 FA · Sat 8/29 · BP not out yet, so pill = our score + Pitcher List

PitcherMatchupVerdictBPMIZPLTake
Blake Snell@ DETAUTO START—8.0—average DET lineup, hot recent form, strong skills
Sandy Alcantara@ WSHSTART—5.9—tough WSH lineup, hot recent form, strong skills
Cal Quantrill@ MILSTART⚠ opener—5.7—tough MIL lineup, hot recent form
Walker Buehler@ TBDART—5.2—tough TB lineup, hot recent form
Keider Monterovs LADDART—5.0—tough LAD lineup, hot recent form, strong skills
Jake Bennett@ NYYDART—4.9—tough NYY lineup, shaky recent form, strong skills
Martín Pérezvs COLDART—4.2—average COL lineup, hitter park, weak skills

Openers filtered: Daniel Lynch IV

📼 Streamer Report Card

Does the Streaming Board actually work? Every pick it showed, frozen at pick time and graded off the real box score. Two scoreboards below: first our own calls — the Verdict ladder and MIZ (our matchup score, 0–10) — then the outside lists behind them, BP (RelieverRecon's daily BP Streamers post) and PL (Pitcher List's tier ranking). Grades are recomputed from raw lines on every build — the rubric can change, the history follows.

Last 30d · 359 starts graded over 29 days · GOOD+ 51% · BLOWUP 16% · agg ERA 4.09 · WHIP 1.30 · 4.5 K/start · 386 picks logged, 13 never started, 14 awaiting a box score — not graded

Grade mix · all 359 graded starts

GEM 75 GOOD 109 OK 119 BLOWUP 56
GEM6+ IP, ≤1 ER · or 6+ IP, 8+ K, ≤2 ERGOODquality start (6+ IP, ≤3 ER) · or 5+ IP, ≤2 EROKheld the line without earning GOODBLOWUP5+ ER · or under 4 IP with 4+ ERGOOD+ = GEM + GOOD. A pick whose starter never took the ball grades to nothing and leaves every rate below.
CohortnGOOD+BLOWUPERA
Q1 — Do our own calls work? · Verdict ladder + MIZ bands · live board rows only, nothing backfilled
Verdict · AUTO START2273%9%3.06
Verdict · START4260%7%3.42
Verdict · DART9348%15%4.46
Verdict · SIT17247%20%4.42
MIZ ≥ 5.011561%12%3.55
MIZ 3.5–4.911550%17%4.51
MIZ < 3.58439%21%4.88
All live board picks32951%16%4.20
Q1 read — GOOD+ falls 73% · 60% · 48% · 47% down the rungs, but BLOWUP does not rise with it, and MIZ sorts: GOOD+ falls 61% · 50% · 39% from the top band down.
Q2 — Which outside list earns the weight? · BP and PL graded on their own published lists · mostly rebuilt from git
PL · Auto Start2875%7%3.26
PL · Probably Start3658%17%3.84
PL · Questionable Start9052%13%4.08
PL · Do Not Start17949%19%4.21
BP · Auto1436%7%3.94
BP · Likely5446%19%4.35
All graded picks35951%16%4.09
Q2 read — against the 51% all-picks baseline, PL's top tiers clear it (75% · 58%) and BP's top tiers are too thin to call (36% · 46% on n=14 · n=54).

Rows are overlapping lenses on the same picks, not a partition — one start can be a PL Auto Start and a Verdict SIT at once, so they never sum to the headline; each group is read against its own baseline row.

⚠ Dissent check — the override is ahead so far — 67% GOOD+ on n=9. Splits are picks the board started over our MIZ sit-call (vs 51% for all live picks).

Calibration — do our numbers mean anything? · full season, 2026-06-29→2026-08-27 · 848 graded picks · MIZ on 314, BP on 230, Verdict on 329

The ladder above asks whether the tiers sort. This asks the harder question: is the number a probability — when the board says 7, do 70% of those starts come back GOOD+? Bins are equal-count and merge until every one clears n=15; the walk-forward rows are scored against a model that only ever saw earlier days.

Score binnmeanGOOD+95% CI
MIZ score → P(GOOD+) · our matchup score, 0–10 · live rows only · n=314
MIZ 0.5–3.2652.538%28%–51%
MIZ 3.3–3.9653.648%36%–60%
MIZ 4.0–4.8624.452%39%–64%
MIZ 4.9–5.6635.252%40%–64%
MIZ 5.7–8.9596.568%55%–78%
All MIZ-scored picks314—51%—
BP score → P(GOOD+) · RelieverRecon's published rating · includes git-backfilled rows · n=230
BP 4.6–6.6486.135%23%–50%
BP 6.7–7.3447.052%38%–66%
BP 7.4–7.7477.545%31%–59%
BP 7.8–8.4478.147%33%–61%
BP 8.5–10.0449.143%30%–58%
All BP-scored picks230—44%—
Verdict tier → P(GOOD+) · the consensus call itself · live rows only
AUTO START22—73%52%–87%
START42—60%44%–73%
DART93—48%38%–58%
SIT172—47%40%–55%
Out-of-samplenvaluevs
Walk-forward probability · logistic on MIZ, refit daily on earlier days only · from 2026-08-05 · 22 days
Brier — our probability2500.247lower is better
Brier — flat base rate to date2500.256we win by 0.009
Brier — verdict-tier history2500.254we win by 0.007
Log loss — our probability2500.687lower is better
ECE — our probability2500.0615 equal-count bins
ECE bins · predicted p vs what actually happened
said 32%–48%5139%off by 5%
said 48%–52%4943%off by 7%
said 52%–57%5046%off by 9%
said 57%–61%5052%off by 6%
said 61%–74%5062%off by 3%
Verdict — usable with caveats: ECE 0.061 over n=250 out-of-sample picks (≤0.03 well calibrated · ≤0.07 usable with caveats); edges the flat base rate on Brier (0.247 vs 0.256, a thin margin; log-loss ~coin-flip).

🔥 Today's Hitter Streamers

Top 10 FA bats for today's slate · score = split vs SP hand (35%) + SP softness (35%) + bat quality (15%) + trailing 15 days (10%) + park (5%) · facing an elite arm fades the score hard (feast on weak pitchers).

#HitterMatchupWhyLegsScore
1AUTO STARTAndrew Vaughn1B · 4% own
vs TEX · Bradford LHP
szn .341 xwOBAL15: 0.884 OPS (45 PA)L14 contact -0.9 (.351 xwOBAcon, 29 BBE)usually bats 4th (×1.05)beats 4 of 4 eligible startersBradford .349 allowed · soft SP1.03 OPS vs LHP (92 AB)
L15
bat
SP
L/R
park
86
2AUTO STARTTroy JohnstonRF · 4% own
@ ATL · Holmes RHP
szn .331 xwOBAL15: 1.052 OPS (31 PA)L14 contact +3.6 (.449 xwOBAcon, 21 BBE)usually bats 6th (×0.98)fills OF needbeats 6 of 8 eligible startersHolmes .337 allowed · soft SP0.814 OPS vs RHP (264 AB)
L15
bat
SP
L/R
park
69
3AUTO STARTDrew GilbertRF · 1% own
vs AZ · Drake LHP
szn .329 xwOBAL15: 0.963 OPS (41 PA)L14 contact +6.0 (.580 xwOBAcon, 26 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)fills OF needbeats 5 of 6 eligible startersshort side vs LHP — 14% of ABDrake .430 allowed · soft SP0.142 OPS vs LHP (41 AB)
L15
bat
SP
L/R
park
64
4AUTO STARTDane MyersCF · 0% own
@ CHC · Peterson LHP
szn .315 xwOBAL15: 0.800 OPS (52 PA)L14 contact -1.9 (.328 xwOBAcon, 36 BBE)usually bats 3rd (×1.07)fills OF needbeats 5 of 6 eligible startersPeterson .338 allowed · soft SP0.83 OPS vs LHP (89 AB)
L15
bat
SP
L/R
park
64
5AUTO STARTMichael ConfortoLF · 0% own
vs CIN · Lowder RHP
szn .324 xwOBAL15: 0.916 OPS (31 PA)L14 contact +1.9 (.412 xwOBAcon, 18 BBE)usually bats 8th (×0.93)fills OF needbeats 4 of 6 eligible startersLowder .346 allowed · soft SP0.759 OPS vs RHP (200 AB)
L15
bat
SP
L/R
park
59
6AUTO STARTKyle Karros3B · 3% own
@ ATL · Holmes RHP
szn .338 xwOBAusually bats 5thbeats 2 of 3 eligible startersHolmes .337 allowed · soft SP0.768 OPS vs RHP (221 AB)
L15
bat
SP
L/R
park
58
7AUTO STARTDominic Smith1B · 2% own
vs COL · Sugano RHP
szn .299 xwOBAusually bats 7th (×0.95)beats 2 of 3 eligible startersSugano .395 allowed · soft SP0.736 OPS vs RHP (226 AB)
L15
bat
SP
L/R
park
56
8STARTJose SiriCF · 0% own
vs PHI · Painter RHP
szn .314 xwOBAL15: 0.409 OPS (34 PA)L14 contact +1.1 (.394 xwOBAcon, 17 BBE)usually bats 5thfills OF needbeats 3 of 6 eligible startersshort side vs RHP — 48% of ABPainter .336 allowed · soft SP0.812 OPS vs RHP (77 AB)
L15
bat
SP
L/R
park
55
9STARTJakob MarseeCF · 26% own
@ WSH · Kent LHP
szn .303 xwOBAL15: 0.856 OPS (50 PA)L14 contact -2.4 (.317 xwOBAcon, 29 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)fills OF needbeats 3 of 6 eligible startersshort side vs LHP — 20% of ABKent .372 allowed · soft SP0.633 OPS vs LHP (85 AB)
L15
bat
SP
L/R
park
54
10STARTGary SanchezC · 2% own
vs TEX · Bradford LHP
szn .343 xwOBAL15: 0.225 OPS (32 PA)L14 contact -5.0 (.203 xwOBAcon, 19 BBE)usually bats 5thbeats 1 of 2 eligible startersBradford .349 allowed · soft SP0.768 OPS vs LHP (90 AB)
L15
bat
SP
L/R
park
53

Tiers vs YOUR lineup tonight — median starter 59, worst Randy Arozarena (17). AUTO START = beats the median eligible starter.

TBD starter = neutral SP + split legs until the probable posts (refresh upgrades it). Splits need 30+ AB vs that hand. IL bats are excluded; bats who rarely start against tonight's hand are dropped. Doubleheaders: legs average the ends he plays, and everyday bats get up to a ×1.50 volume boost. Lineup slot scales the score by expected PAs from the bat's usual spot (leadoff ×1.12 … 9-hole ×0.90, modal over the last ~10 played days) — his typical order, not today's card, since that posts after waivers run.

🎯 FA Hitters — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Royce Lewis
88
1Mickey GasperC · Bos · 6.9%HEATER
88/99 heat on 23 BBE, .618 xwOBAcon; L14 production (5 HR, 12 RBI) is real — ATC PT projection is stale
Heat 88 · 23 BBE · ATC 10 PA · 0 HR · 0 SB · 0.225 · L7 0.429 · 2 HR · sim +0.2 pts
2Drew Gilbert
RF · SF · 0.5% · HEATER
81/99 heat on trusted 26-BBE sample, .580 xwOBAcon; L7 2 HR, 7 RBI confirms the contact quality
Heat 81 · 26 BBE · ATC 81 PA · 2 HR · 1 SB · 0.228 · L7 0.333 · 2 HR · sim +0.2 pts
3Justin Crawford
CF · Phi · 3.6% · CATEGORY FIT
5 projected SB; sim +0.3 — MIZ needs 5 SB to gain a rank, Crawford is the clearest path
ATC 92 PA · 1 HR · 5 SB · 0.268 · L7 0.188 · 0 HR · sim +0.3 pts
4Tristan Peters
CF · ChW · 17.0% · UPSIDE
5 HR, 9 RBI last 7 days is elite production; HM-rail heat on 17 BBE needs vol caveat but output is undeniable
L7 flare 81 · ATC 74 PA · 1 HR · 1 SB · 0.237 · L7 0.476 · 5 HR · sim +0.2 pts
5Andres Chaparro
1B · Wsh · 0.7% · HEATER
81/99 heat on trusted 25-BBE sample; L14 3 HR, .333 BA backs the contact signal
Heat 81 · 25 BBE · ATC 52 PA · 2 HR · 0 SB · 0.228 · L7 0.313 · 1 HR · sim +0.2 pts
Passed on: Colton Cowser has a strong heater (79/99, 22 BBE) and .539 BA last 7 but .223 ATC projection and part-time risk leave him just outside when Crawford's SB need and Chaparro's larger heat sample are prioritized

💪 Hitter List Rankings

PL Top 150 hitters · your bats + top FAs.

On Hitter List · 17 yours · 10 FAs

RankHitterMLBPosChgAVGxwOBAHRSBRoSChu’s Take
18Randy ArozarenaSEAOF-.272.3482020123Randy Arozarena is only hitting .238 in August, but his expected stats for this month suggest it should be closer to .280. I’m a little d…
19Kyle SchwarberPHIDH+2.243.367403127When Kyle Schwarber is hot, he’s HOT. The Field of Dreams game was his second two-homer outing in his last five starts and facing the Twi…
39Yandy DíazTB1B+10.301.354193123
40Miguel VargasCHW1B/3B-10.251.3902913113Miguel Vargas continues to slump, and while there isn’t anything you should do about it from an add/drop perspective, it’s certainly frus…
57Zach NetoLAASS+4.237.3052218109
62Royce LewisMIN1B/2B/3B+8.234.3151313103
63Cole CarriggCOLOF+2.265.3206868
72Jac CaglianoneKC1B/OF+23.282.362236107Jac Caglianone has improved the strikeout rate in a huge way, and the ground ball rate is below 50%. All systems are GO.
77Dansby SwansonCHCSS+2.216.3071817101
84Ty FranceSD1B+1.288.332181106
101Tyler SoderstromATH1B/OF+5.245.328192—
102Jacob WilsonATHSS+8.266.28274—
112Tyler StephensonCINC+UR.245.33612097
114Dylan CrewsWSHOF+15.220.31910887
117Ryan JeffersMINC+15.276.357101118
122Andruw MonasterioBOS2B/SS+15.255.3026492
126Luis RengifoSD2B/3B/OF+17.245.3044687
133Cam SmithHOUOF+UR.214.3211710100OK, Cam Smith , go ahead, tease me one more time.
137Abimelec OrtizWSH1B/OF+UR.208.3245087
139Bryce EldridgeSF1B-26.252.35114199Bryce Eldridge is getting the ball in the air, but he’s not pulling it much and strikeouts have been an issue. He’s a solid hold in Dynas…
TSHenry BolteOakOF—.272.30561491Henry Bolte (OF, ATH) — Playing every day but the results aren’t overly exciting (though playing a ton of lefties lately has helped).
TSJordan LawlarAri3B/OF—.290.3323489Jordan Lawlar (3B/OF, ARI) — Has a home run in back-to-back games on his rehab, but striking out a TON. Sounds like he’ll be back this we…
TSKaelen CulpepperMinSS—.333.3373091Kaelen Culpepper (SS, MIN) — Culpepper is off to a slow start and is sitting every third day or so, but can remain an upside stash if you…
TSPedro RamirezChC2B/3B—.286.3013792Pedro Ramirez (2B/3B, CHC) — Hitting well when he plays, which is not very often.
TSWalker JenkinsMinOF—————92Walker Jenkins (OF, MIN) — Hitting extremely well in August (1.063 OPS), and the collapse of Larnach may give him a chance to break throu…
URJames WoodWshOF—.265.4193017129Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
URRalphy VelazquezCle1B—————83Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.

🔥 Heat Board

Hottest ACTIVE free-agent bats by contact quality, 8/14–8/27 · Heat = percentile vs all MLB bats over the same window (xwOBAcon 30 · EV 20 · Brl 20 · HH 15 · K 10 · BB 5) · min 15 BBE to qualify (smaller samples live in the HM rail) · IL excluded.

90
Ryan Vilade
RF · TB · 0.2% own · xwOBAcon .651 · EV 97.5 · Brl 18.8% · 16 BBE
▲ .145 BA vs SZN
BAHRRBIRSB
SZN.2641137253
L14.4092250
88
Mickey Gasper
C · Bos · 6.9% own · xwOBAcon .618 · EV 90.8 · Brl 26.1% · 23 BBE
▲ .142 BA vs SZN
BAHRRBIRSB
SZN.275519170
L14.41751260
84
Brett Baty
3B · NYM · 2.6% own · xwOBAcon .446 · EV 93.3 · Brl 11.8% · 17 BBE
▲ .112 BA vs SZN
BAHRRBIRSB
SZN.221840455
L14.3330230
83
Colt Keith
1B · Det · 5.2% own · xwOBAcon .467 · EV 93.8 · Brl 9.1% · 22 BBE
▼ .014 BA vs SZN
BAHRRBIRSB
SZN.264932465
L14.2501140
82
Esmerlyn Valdez
RF · Pit · 17.7% own · xwOBAcon .513 · EV 93.3 · Brl 17.6% · 17 BBE
▼ .006 BA vs SZN
BAHRRBIRSB
SZN.2491542360
L14.2431360
81
Drew Gilbert
RF · SF · 0.5% own · xwOBAcon .580 · EV 91.9 · Brl 19.2% · 26 BBE
▲ .054 BA vs SZN
BAHRRBIRSB
SZN.243836401
L14.29731180
81
Andres Chaparro
1B · Wsh · 0.7% own · xwOBAcon .445 · EV 90.5 · Brl 24.0% · 25 BBE
▲ .083 BA vs SZN
BAHRRBIRSB
SZN.250933270
L14.3333560
79
Colton Cowser
CF · Bal · 1.7% own · xwOBAcon .463 · EV 93.5 · Brl 13.6% · 22 BBE
▲ .108 BA vs SZN
BAHRRBIRSB
SZN.2251235368
L14.3333550
77
Xander Bogaerts
SS · SD · 18.7% own · xwOBAcon .337 · EV 94.5 · Brl 12.9% · 31 BBE
▼ .046 BA vs SZN
BAHRRBIRSB
SZN.21711475017
L14.1711531
77
Patrick Bailey
C · Cle · 0.8% own · xwOBAcon .493 · EV 92.0 · Brl 6.2% · 16 BBE
▲ .046 BA vs SZN
BAHRRBIRSB
SZN.194730243
L14.2401731
Honorable mention · hottest L7 (8/21–8/27), not yet on the board · tiny samples — peek, don't trust
86
Drew Cavanaugh
C · SF
.634 xwOBAcon
9 BBE · .267 L7
83
Hao-Yu Lee
3B · Det
.468 xwOBAcon
19 BBE · .227 L7
81
Tristan Peters
CF · ChW
.526 xwOBAcon
17 BBE · .476 L7
81
Ezequiel Tovar
SS · Col
.638 xwOBAcon
11 BBE · .357 L7
79
Elias Diaz
C · Tex
.386 xwOBAcon
11 BBE · .167 L7
73
Nathan Lukes
RF · Tor
.451 xwOBAcon
14 BBE · .375 L7
🎯 FA Pitchers — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Sandy Alcantara
71
1Andrew KittredgeRP · Bal · 1.7%BEST VALUE
Roto sim +1.0, confirmed closer role, ratios safe for ERA/WHIP protection
Supp 71 · 19 BBE · ATC 11.0 IP · 1 W · 11 K · 3.87 · 1.21 · 2 SV · Closer · sim +1.0 pts
2Grayson Rodriguez
SP · LAA · 3.1% · HEATER
86th-percentile suppression on 47 BBE trusted sample; elite contact suppression overrides mediocre ATC
Supp 86 · 47 BBE · ATC 25.0 IP · 2 W · 25 K · 4.30 · 1.31 · sim +0.0 pts
3Joey Cantillo
RP · Cle · 26.1% · HEATER
93rd-percentile suppression on 39 BBE; legitimate strikeout upside with GS path available
Supp 93 · 39 BBE · ATC 28.0 IP · 2 W · 29 K · 4.05 · 1.33 · sim +0.0 pts
4Juan Morillo
RP · Ari · 2.7% · CATEGORY FIT
Confirmed closer, roto sim +0.8, elite suppression signal adds SV without hurting ratios
Supp 93 · 10 BBE · ATC 11.0 IP · 1 W · 11 K · 3.83 · 1.35 · 1 SV · Closer · sim +0.8 pts
5Christian Scott
SP · NYM · 11.6% · UPSIDE
#14 streamer rank, 3.94 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 29 K RoS — ratio-safe volume arm, GS cap has room
Supp 46 · 29 BBE · ATC 28.0 IP · 1 W · 29 K · 3.94 · 1.22 · PL #14 · sim +0.0 pts
Passed on: Calvin Faucher has highest suppression among closers but just 13 BBE makes the contact-quality signal untrustworthy; Kittredge and Morillo are confirmed saves plays with more reliable data.

⚾ Pitcher List Rankings

PL Top 100 SP · your arms + top FAs.

On Pitcher List · 6 yours · 10 FAs

RankPitcherMLBChgERAxERAK/9RoSPollack’s Take
1Jacob MisiorowskiMIL-1.732.0013.23.32Like a base set Charizard, Misiorowski’s not gonna stop being dope.
9Blake SnellLAD+72.572.2911.13.42#HotSnellSummer is in full swing.
10Dylan CeaseTOR-12.372.6813.03.45Like a perfect burger without the condiments to hit all your macros, Cease gives you everything except for a stable WHIP due to his infla…
20Kyle HarrisonMIL+82.793.2411.14.12With a dominant outing, he muted our concerns, but Harrison’s still displaying decreased velocity and not commanding as well as he did in…
22Eury PérezMIA-43.173.679.73.87Pérez has the stuff to be an ace, but there’s polishing to do in the command and game plan departments to unlock his full potential.
30Sandy AlcantaraMIA-43.383.646.74.19Baseball’s premier innings eater hasn’t ruined his appetite.
38Jacob LopezATH+64.983.368.64.63It’s the 2025 hot streak all over again. Enjoy the ride, ya’ll!
39Dustin MayMIL-4.564.208.54.09May got Singled Out in a disastrous performance, but his stuff is still dope, and his new situation is ideal. Higher win chance, great de…
40Walbert UreñaLAA-2.943.448.74.54Armed with upper-90s heaters and one of the best changeups in baseball, Ureña has hit few speed bumps. If that developing sweeper becomes…
43Andrew PainterPHI+UR6.044.817.74.78From off The List to inside the Top 50, Painter has stolen our hearts with an improved heater (97+ mph with 17-18″ iVB) and emphasis on r…
45Peter LambertHOU-43.663.548.84.58Lambert’s stumble last time was a product of being Singled Out . He’s been reliable all year, but we should be recognizing that Holly is …
46Jared JonesPIT-84.763.6710.23.99The stuff is top-tier, but he’s still shaking off the Tommy John surgery rust with his command and the tight leash the Pirates have on hi…
54Joey CantilloCLE-83.703.979.64.05Efficiency is a problem, but Cantillo is doing everything we want. More curveballs, faster fastballs, and supportive cutters. Throw more …
56Shane BieberTOR+144.375.947.14.19Bieber is back in business. His heater looked awesome in The Trop, and his offspeed pitches are being the CSW monsters they need to be to…
57Tyler MahleATL-4.414.288.54.10Mahle’s command and velocity have been stellar since returning from the IL in late June. He’s got an even better situation pitching in At…
58Brandon PfaadtARI-3.513.756.24.60Despite what the line suggests, Pfaadt’s last start wasn’t an end to his Vargas Rule . It was a textbook Careful, Icarus with a three-run…

🔒 Closer Chart

Save targets · roles + regression flags.

🚨 Closer Tier Changes (vs. yesterday)

  • COLOR SHIFT Los Angeles Dodgers: Tanner Scott → Tanner Scott (magenta → ) rostered
  • ROLE CHANGE San Francisco Giants: Dylan Smith → Carson Seymour (orange → blue) FA — ADD
  • ROLE CHANGE Washington Nationals: Clayton Beeter → Orlando Ribalta (orange → blue) FA — ADD
BLUEEntrenched closer (highest leverage)GREENNext man up / committee pieceYELLOWSetup, 8th-inning leverageORANGESpeculative / lower priorityMAGENTAHigh-upside future / multi-inning
PitcherTmRoleSVSVHDIPERAWHIPxERAK/9Rtg / Own
Yours on the chart
—Andrés MuñozSeattle MarinersCL242448.34.281.223.3114.35.0 · —
—Louis VarlandToronto Blue JaysCL303567.71.200.992.20 ↑11.05.0 · —
—Justin MartinezArizona DiamondbacksFU003.00.001.003.54 ↑6.01.0 · —
Top 5 FA closers (by team rating)
—Calvin FaucherMiami MarlinsCL21656.33.991.373.7210.13.5 · 1%
Andrew KittredgeBaltimore OriolesCL71640.33.351.364.027.43.0 · 2%
Juan MorilloArizona DiamondbacksCL21952.32.241.012.2910.31.0 · 3%
Carson SeymourSan Francisco GiantsCL1518.34.911.536.45 ↑6.91.0 · 0%
Orlando RibaltaWashington NationalsCL21441.03.951.243.948.31.0 · 0%

ERA cell: green <3.00 · red >4.50. xERA arrow: ↓ ERA likely to fall (buy) · ↑ ERA likely to rise (sell). Triggers when |xERA−ERA| ≥ 1.00.

✂️ Cut List

Drop priority · value, form, pedigree, role.

50
Royce Lewis 3B · Min
low TV (18)
sim cost ~0
TV 18
Rd 13
36
Justin Martinez RP · Ari
low TV (16); BUT fresh-callup upside; BUT strong RoS (3.46 ERA)
sim −0.19% win if cut
TV 16
UFDA
21
Ryan Jeffers C · Min
mid TV (36); BUT top-tier keeper; BUT young breakout signal
sim +0.05% win if cut
TV 36
UFDA
14
Kyle Harrison SP · Mil
mid TV (60); UFDA — easy to drop; BUT top-tier keeper
sim cost ~0
TV 60
UFDA
13
Yandy Diaz 1B · TB
BUT AVG specialist (0.301); BUT strong RoS (123 wRC+)
sim cost ~0
TV 73
Rd 9

Higher score = drop sooner — top 5 by score, and only 8+ reaches the board, so the number has no ceiling and is only comparable within this list. The sim line is a roto-sim marginal (cut vs. keep on one shared set of draws), not a measured cost. Pedigree + named closers shielded.

🌱 Stash List

PL's top prospects · grab them cheap.

Hitters

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 22: Top 10 Hitting Prospects to Stash

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + PSS + PFV + age + 40-man + path.

24 available — 2 yours

W. Jenkins YOURS
OF · MIN · AAA · 21 · knocking on the door
94
PSS
85
PFV
61
ETA
days
Szn
14·17·.323
R. Velazquez YOURS
1B/C · CLE · AA · 20 · nearly ready
84
PSS
75
PFV
57
ETA
Sept
Szn
27·2·.289
J. Tibbs III
OF · LAD · AAA · 23 · knocking on the door
100
PSS
88
PFV
54
ETA
days
Szn
27·7·.295
S. Thompson
OF · COL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down
95
PSS
79
PFV
55
ETA
1-3wk
Szn
12·16·.302
F. Arias
SS · BOS · AAA · 20 · knocking on the door
91
PSS
72
PFV
60
ETA
days
Szn
23·6·.313
L. Montes
OF · SEA · AAA · 21 · nearly ready
89
PSS
72
PFV
56
ETA
1-3wk
Szn
37·8·.248
M. Anderson
2B · DET · AAA · 24 · nearly ready
88
PSS
71
PFV
52
ETA
1-3wk
Szn
16·5·.309
J. Melton
OF · TB · AAA · 25 · nearly ready
87
PSS
79
PFV
58
ETA
1-3wk
Szn
7·26·.298
C. Cannarella
OF · MIA · AAA · 22 · nearly ready
87
PSS
74
PFV
50
ETA
1-3wk
Szn
13·20·.340
B. Davidson
OF · SFG · AAA · 24 · nearly ready
86
PSS
86
PFV
42
ETA
September
Szn
25·19·.284
Z. Hope
OF · DET · AA · 21 · nearly ready
85
PSS
94
PFV
60
ETA
Sept
Szn
26·22·.275
E. Salas
C · SDP · AAA · 20 · nearly ready
84
PSS
81
PFV
52
ETA
September
Szn
10·16·.295
M. Arroyo
SS · SEA · AAA · 21 · nearly ready
83
PSS
41
PFV
55
ETA
days
Szn
18·16·.281
Y. Morales
3B · WSN · AAA · 24 · nearly ready
83
PSS
78
PFV
47
ETA
1-3wk
Szn
24·5·.288
S. King
SS/2B/3B · WSN · AAA · 23 · nearly ready
83
PSS
79
PFV
50
ETA
1-3wk
Szn
18·14·.321
R. Ward
LF · LAD · AAA · 28 · ↩ sent down
82
PSS
83
PFV
51
ETA
1-3wk
Szn
20·7·.252
P. Harber
3B · SFG · AAA · 24 · nearly ready
82
PSS
54
PFV
54
ETA
'27
Szn
17·4·.288
C. Ingle
C · CLE · ↩ sent down
81
PSS
77
PFV
48
ETA
1-3wk
Szn
18·2·.287
H. Mendez
OF · MIN · AAA · 22 · nearly ready
80
PSS
68
PFV
58
ETA
Sept
Szn
12·4·.278
J. Long
1B · CHC · AAA · 24 · nearly ready
79
PSS
66
PFV
52
ETA
4-8wk
Szn
13·3·.278
K. Alderman
OF · MIA · AAA · 23 · nearly ready
79
PSS
72
PFV
49
ETA
4-8wk
Szn
18·10·.264
E. Arroyo
SS · CIN · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down
77
PSS
69
PFV
49
ETA
4-8wk
Szn
15·14·.288
J. Made
SS · MIL · AA · 19 · on the climb
73
PSS
96
PFV
64
ETA
Sept
Szn
13·34·.272
D. Crisantes
2B/3B · ARI · AAA · 21 · on the climb
69
PSS
21
PFV
58
ETA
4-8wk
Szn
9·0·.293
Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

Pitchers

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 22: Top 10 Pitching Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + L3 quality + FV + age + 40-man + path.

27 available

A. Kelly
SP · PIT · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down
88
PSS
18
PFV
61
ETA
—
Szn
70K·4.21
J. Tong
SP · NYM · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down
82
PSS
36
PFV
60
ETA
—
Szn
125K·4.75
T. Johnson
SP · TBR · AAA · 24 · nearly ready
80
PSS
89
PFV
60
ETA
—
Szn
80K·2.90
T. Bremner
SP · LAA · AA · 22 · nearly ready
79
PSS
99
PFV
66
ETA
'26
Szn
84K·4.26
M. Bratt
SP · ARI · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down
77
PSS
80
PFV
68
ETA
—
Szn
79K·3.33
D. Davalillo
SP · TEX · AAA · 24 · on the climb
77
PSS
39
PFV
62
ETA
—
Szn
91K·5.01
J. Ritchie
SP · ATL · ↩ sent down
76
PSS
35
PFV
59
ETA
—
Szn
114K·3.83
G. Wood
P · PHI · AA · 22 · on the climb
74
PSS
99
PFV
48
ETA
'26
Szn
117K·4.11
C. Crow
SP · MIL · ↩ sent down
74
PSS
47
PFV
57
ETA
—
Szn
97K·3.82
M. Forret
SP · BAL · AAA · 22 · on the climb
73
PSS
76
PFV
72
ETA
—
Szn
115K·3.85
T. McDougal
SP · CHW · AAA · 23 · ↩ sent down
71
PSS
41
PFV
57
ETA
—
Szn
47K·4.75
B. Garrett
SP · ↩ sent down
70
PSS
79
PFV
62
ETA
June 1st
Szn
101K·3.68
M. Wilkinson
SP · SFG · AAA · 23 · ↩ sent down
70
PSS
34
PFV
58
ETA
—
Szn
98K·3.57
R. Sloan
SP · SEA · AA · 20 · on the climb
69
PSS
100
PFV
64
ETA
—
Szn
111K·3.63
B. Mautz
SP · STL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down
68
PSS
44
PFV
57
ETA
—
Szn
91K·3.86
C. Dana
SP · LAA · AAA · 22 · on the climb
67
PSS
34
PFV
58
ETA
—
Szn
72K·5.90
M. Ullola
SP · HOU · ↩ sent down
65
PSS
74
PFV
52
ETA
—
Szn
94K·4.41
J. Wenninger
SP · NYM · on the climb
64
PSS
28
PFV
66
ETA
—
Szn
104K·4.17
O. Murphy
SP · ATL · ↩ sent down
63
PSS
55
PFV
64
ETA
—
Szn
119K·3.95
B. Hopkins
SP · TBR · on the climb
62
PSS
42
PFV
63
ETA
—
Szn
111K·5.52
T. Gibson
SP · BAL · ↩ sent down
61
PSS
40
PFV
62
ETA
—
Szn
98K·5.13
K. Curtis
SP · PIT · ↩ sent down
60
PSS
40
PFV
55
ETA
—
Szn
109K·4.65
L. Braun
SP · ATL · developing
50
PSS
40
PFV
54
ETA
—
Szn
101K·3.72
Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

🔭 10 not a 2026 factor — Liam Doyle · Anthony Eyanson · Christian Zazueta · Jamie Arnold · Joseph Dzierwa · Jaxon Wiggins · Jurrangelo Cijntje · Tyson Hardin · Jonathan Santucci · Karson Milbrandt

💼 Trades

Buy-low targets · league trade history.

Top Buy-Lows

Rebound candidates · suggested offers.

Hitters

VerdictTargetOwnRoSTitle ΔSuggested offer
📈 BUY-LOWTrent Grisham CF · NYY · RAGE · glhoward40
+1.2σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.217 / xBA 0.247 · xwOBA 0.341
33%113 wRC+≈ 0.1%Royce Lewis 3B + Bryce Eldridge 1B · two-piece package (TV 41 vs target 37)
📈 BUY-LOWJJ Bleday CF · Cin · RAGE · glhoward40
+1.3σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.219 / xBA 0.245 · xwOBA 0.351
24%104 wRC+≈ 0.0%Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 24 vs target 27)
📈 BUY-LOWRonald Acuna Jr. RF · Atl · GoOs · My Best Guys
+1.2σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.228 / xBA 0.251 · xwOBA 0.357
98%136 wRC+≈ 0.0%Blake Snell SP + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 80 vs target 86)
📈 BUY-LOWHeriberto Hernandez LF · Mia · FRAN · francisw789
+1.1σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.234 / xBA 0.250 · xwOBA 0.350
3%98 wRC+≈ 0.1%Royce Lewis 3B · comparable value (TV 17 vs target 23)
↑ mild buyTaylor Ward LF · Sea · GoOs · My Best Guys
+0.6σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.231 / xBA 0.244 · xwOBA 0.339
61%118 wRC+≈ 0.1%Kyle Harrison SP · comparable value (TV 60 vs target 60)
↑ mild buyKyle Stowers LF · Mia · KNIG · TKHOO
+0.7σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.242 / xBA 0.233 · xwOBA 0.330
28%111 wRC+≈ 0.0%Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 24 vs target 27)
↑ mild buyBrandon Nimmo LF · Tex · DORN · Lambertmt48
+0.6σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.259 / xBA 0.280 · xwOBA 0.355
67%119 wRC+≈ 0.1%Royce Lewis 3B + Bryce Eldridge 1B · two-piece package (TV 41 vs target 45)
↑ mild buyDominic Canzone RF · Sea · GARR · jregarris
+0.6σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.256 / xBA 0.269 · xwOBA 0.355
12%113 wRC+≈ 0.0%Henry Bolte RF + Bryce Eldridge 1B + +$3 FAAB · two-piece package (TV 28 vs target 34)
📈 BUY-LOWMike Trout OF · LAA · KNIG · TKHOO
+1.4σ buy-low · OF — fits a need · BA 0.241 / xBA 0.254 · xwOBA 0.383
95%127 wRC+≈ 0.0%Sandy Alcantara SP · comparable value (TV 72 vs target 77)
↑ mild buyOneil Cruz CF · Pit · PEYT · simplejack2k9
+1.0σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.257 / xBA 0.252 · xwOBA 0.361
83%105 wRC+≈ 0.0%Kyle Harrison SP · comparable value (TV 60 vs target 61)

Pitchers

VerdictTargetOwnRoSTitle ΔSuggested offer
📈 BUY-LOWKodai Senga SP · NYM · KRTZ · FratSkins
+1.6σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 7.79 vs xERA 4.97
10%3.96 ERA≈ 0.1%Royce Lewis 3B · comparable value (TV 17 vs target 14)
↑ mild buyFreddy Peralta SP · TB · KNIG · TKHOO
+0.7σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 5.11 vs xERA 3.97
69%4.01 ERA≈ 0.1%Royce Lewis 3B + Bryce Eldridge 1B · two-piece package (TV 41 vs target 43)
↑ mild buyBryce Miller SP · Sea · BLOB · crenshawh19
+0.6σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.12 vs xERA 3.17
36%4.10 ERA≈ 0.0%Jac Caglianone RF · comparable value (TV 52 vs target 48)

League History

Completed trades · frozen grade at the deal + live grade now.

SideSentAt dealNowTrend
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Hit the Damn Ball You BumsAndy PagesA- +7A+ +44▲ up
Camp MVPPete Crow-ArmstrongC -7F -44▼ down
Team Knighton ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Team KnightonMatthew BoydF -22F -22
Camp MVPKenley JansenA+ +22A+ +22
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Worst2First 2026-08-10
Miz-waukee’s BestCharlie Condon, Payton TolleA+ +50A+ +35▼ down
Worst2FirstDylan CeaseF -50F -35▲ up
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Dorn and Associates LLC 2026-08-05
Photogenic Nick KurtzTravis Bazzana, George Lombard Jr., Nolan McLeanA+ +144A+ +107▼ down
Dorn and Associates LLC Jackson Chourio, Jhoan Duran, Brice Turang, David BednarF -144F -107▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-07-31
Miz-waukee’s BestSamuel Basallo, Kade AndersonA- +8A +9
Ramirez Against the MachineBlake SnellC -8D -9
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Team Knighton 2026-07-23
Photogenic Nick KurtzJo Adell, Jacob deGromF -49F -63▼ down
Team KnightonTrea TurnerA+ +49A+ +63▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine ⇄ Miz-waukee’s Best 2026-07-19
Ramirez Against the MachineSandy AlcantaraF -42F -68▼ down
Miz-waukee’s BestJosh JungA+ +42A+ +68▲ up
I need Buck Showalter ⇄ Hit the Damn Ball You Bums 2026-06-19
I need Buck ShowalterNasim NunezA+ +28B +1▼ down
Hit the Damn Ball You BumsJustin WrobleskiF -28B -1▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ The Boys of Summer 2026-06-12
Miz-waukee’s BestChandler SimpsonA +10A- +7▼ down
The Boys of Summer$30 FAABD -10C -7▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-05-01
Miz-waukee’s BestKenley Jansen—A- +6
Camp MVP$30 FAABA- +3C -6▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-04-22
Miz-waukee’s BestNathan Eovaldi, $70 FAAB—F -15
Ramirez Against the MachineJac CaglianoneA+ +60A+ +15▼ down

🔻 Sell-High — My Roster

Surface line outrunning the underlying skill — trade-value peaks. σ = his surface-stat z-score minus his Statcast-skill z-score, both against the league reference for his side — bigger σ = further ahead of the skill. Pair with Buy-Low Targets.

VerdictPlayerOwnSurface vs expectedContact2027 keeper
↓ SHOPHenry Bolte RF · Oak
0.69σ sell-high · RF · BA 0.272 / xBA 0.242 · xwOBA 0.305 — test the market, don't force it
4%BA 0.272 / xBA 0.242 +.030
wOBA 0.324 / xwOBA 0.305 +.019		HH 47.4% · Brl/PA 4.3%25th · +2 rds vs mkt
↓ SHOPYandy Diaz 1B · TB
0.63σ sell-high · 1B · BA 0.301 / xBA 0.286 · xwOBA 0.354 — test the market, don't force it
93%BA 0.301 / xBA 0.286 +.015
wOBA 0.361 / xwOBA 0.354 +.007		HH 47.1% · Brl/PA 5.1%7th · +1 rd vs mkt
HOLD — KEEPER PRICELouis Varland RP · Tor
0.42σ sell-high · RP · ERA 1.20 vs xERA 2.20 — only move for keeper-grade return
86%ERA 1.20 / xERA 2.20 -1.00Brl 4.3% allowed22nd · +16 rds vs mkt

👥 Your Roster

Your roster · news + buy/sell signals.

News (last 24h)

Player news · last 24h.

Leverage Buys/Sells

Buy/sell windows · surface vs. underlying.

Hitters

PlayerPosMLBBAxBAwOBAxwOBABrl%Own%Signal
James Wood IL10LFWsh0.2650.2750.3950.419100.099.1📈 BUY-LOW
Miguel Vargas3BChW0.2510.2680.3710.39093.095.2📈 BUY-LOW
Kyle SchwarberDHPhi0.2430.2380.3790.36798.099.6📈 BUY-LOW
Bryce Eldridge1BSF0.2520.2520.3430.35176.08.1↑ mild buy
Jac CaglianoneRFKC0.2820.2820.3580.36294.055.9fair
Zach NetoSSLAA0.2370.2090.3280.30578.060.5fair
Yandy Diaz1BTB0.3010.2860.3610.35441.092.6↓ mild fade
Cole CarriggCFCol0.2650.2510.3450.320—14.1fair
Ryan JeffersCMin0.2760.2560.3720.35774.040.8fair
Randy ArozarenaLFSea0.2720.2600.3660.34850.093.8fair
Henry BolteRFOak0.2720.2420.3240.30545.04.3↓ mild fade
Kaelen CulpepperSSMin0.3330.2670.3920.337—4.9fair
Royce Lewis3BMin0.2340.2430.3080.31573.017.1↑ mild buy
Walker JenkinsCFMin—————6.6—
Jordan Lawlar3BAri0.2900.2700.3660.332—3.2fair
Ralphy Velazquez1BCle—————0.8—
Pedro Ramirez3BChC0.2860.2660.3350.301—1.9fair

Pitchers

PitcherPosMLBIPERAWHIPxERAK-BB%xwOBA-aBrl%-aOwn%Signal
Blake SnellSPLAD21.02.571.052.2919.50.2360.088.3↑ mild buy
Andres MunozRPSea48.34.281.223.3127.90.2839.480.1↑ mild buy
Joe Ryan IL15SPMin125.74.081.153.4921.20.29010.590.0fair
Jacob MisiorowskiSPMil151.01.730.752.0032.70.2203.699.6fair
Dylan CeaseSPTor144.32.371.062.6825.00.2554.699.4fair
Sandy AlcantaraSPMia183.73.381.183.6411.60.2965.391.3fair
Kyle HarrisonSPMil103.32.791.123.2423.60.2806.878.0fair
Eury PerezSPMia127.73.171.113.6716.50.2979.183.6fair
Louis VarlandRPTor67.71.200.992.2024.60.2314.386.4↓ mild fade
Justin MartinezRPAri3.00.001.003.540.00.2920.01.7—

📰 MLB News — Top Fantasy Stories

Top fantasy stories · last 24h.

🔒 Keepers — 2027 Slate

Peter's model (additive): rounds-saved (cost arbitrage spine) + current skill + career-grade pedigree + sample stability + Statcast over/under-performance trend, with age-decline (33+), closer/RP, and top-30 talent adjustments. Heavy on bargain-hunting.
Claude's model (multiplicative dynasty index): EFV(2027) = (3 + skill + upside) × age_mult × pos_mult; score = EFV − cost_replacement − mookie-lock. Compounds age curve and position scarcity.
Sorted by consensus rank (average of both models). MLB-inactive players surfaced in 🚑 Return Watch below.

Cons
Rank		PlayerPos · Age2027
Cost		PeterClaudeVerdictNotes
1.0Jacob MisiorowskiSP · 22yo21st#1 (+24.4)#1 (+50.8)S · $51UFDA-G FV 55
2.5Miguel Vargas3B · 26yo25th#2 (+23.6)#3 (+19.8)S · $20UFDA
2.5Louis VarlandRP · 28yo22nd#3 (+21.3)#2 (+27.1)S · $27
5.0Eury PerezSP · 23yo20th#4 (+18.6)#6 (+15.2)A · $15UFDA-G
5.0Kyle HarrisonSP · 24yo25th#5 (+18.2)#5 (+15.8)A · $16UFDA
6.0Zach NetoSS · 25yo10th#8 (+13.5)#4 (+16.1)A · $16
6.5Bryce Eldridge1B · 20yo25th#6 (+16.0)#7 (+13.7)A · $14UFDA FV 55
7.5Jac CaglianoneRF · 22yo21st#7 (+15.5)#8 (+11.8)A · $12UFDA-G FV 55

NEW UFDA cap: Peter 3/3 · Claude 3/3 · BOTH = top 8 in both models. Peter only = his model values cost surplus more; Claude only = mine values projection / position scarcity more.

🚑 Return watch — would be keeper-eligible if they get MLB action this year. Rank shown is hypothetical (where they'd slot if eligible).

PlayerPos · AgeCostPeter (if elig.)Claude (if elig.)
Walker JenkinsCF · 20yo25th#14 (+0.0)#12 (+1.6)
Ralphy Velazquez1B · 19yo25th#15 (-2.0)#12 (+1.4)

Updated Fri Aug 28 · 6:20 AM ET

🌍 League-Wide Top Keepers

Top 10 keepers · all 12 teams · both models. Yours in green.

Cons
Rank		PlayerPos · AgeTeam2027
Cost		PeterClaudeVerdict
1.5Jesus LuzardoSP · 28yoKNIG21st#1 (+28.7)#2 (+42.1)S · $42
3.0Jacob MisiorowskiSP · 22yoMIZ21st#5 (+24.4)#1 (+50.8)S · $51
3.5Jordan WalkerRF · 24yoGARR25th#2 (+27.5)#5 (+38.7)S · $39
3.5Bryan BakerRP · 31yoDORN25th#3 (+25.2)#4 (+38.7)S · $39
7.0Cam SchlittlerSP · 24yoKRTZ19th— (+20.3)#3 (+40.8)S · $41
7.5Payton TolleSP · 22yoFRST25th#4 (+25.0)— (+21.2)S · $21
7.5Otto LopezSS · 27yoBLOB20th#9 (+22.4)#6 (+33.9)S · $34
8.5Miguel Vargas3B · 26yoMIZ25th#6 (+23.6)— (+19.8)S · $20
8.5Nolan McLeanSP · 23yoDORN20th#10 (+22.4)#7 (+32.7)S · $33
9.0Ben Rice1B · 27yoDORN20th#7 (+23.3)— (+24.0)S · $24
9.5Jose SorianoSP · 27yoBLOB25th#8 (+22.5)— (+19.8)S · $20
9.5Foster GriffinSP · 30yoGoOs25th— (+21.8)#8 (+29.9)S · $30
10.0Louis VarlandRP · 28yoMIZ22nd— (+21.3)#9 (+27.1)S · $27
10.5Drew RasmussenSP · 30yoTHAR8th— (+13.6)#10 (+26.0)S · $26

Updated Fri Aug 28 · 6:20 AM ET

🏚️ Keeper Cupboards

Every team's six best keepers · shade = dual-model consensus value. Cupboard score weights the top four heavily (the slots that get kept), keepers 5–8 taper. 100 = league's best cupboard.

TeamK1K2K3K4K5K6Cupboard
1MIZMisiorowskiR21VargasR25VarlandR22PerezR20HarrisonR25NetoR10100
2DORNBakerR25RiceR20McLeanR20PerdomoR21WarrenR25KingR691
3GARRWalkerR25MessickR18DinglerR22CanzoneR25RocchioR25GrayR779
4KNIGLuzardoR21AbreuR15MartinezR25deGromR13RodriguezR25DuranR2579
5KRTZSchlittlerR19BengeR25BurkeR25McGonigleR17StewartR10ManaeaR2578
6FRANCavalliR21McCarthyR25LatzR25BradishR21BurnsR5AntonacciR2573
7GoOsGriffinR25BradleyR25GoodmanR21BurlesonR9BaldwinR14WachaR2573
8BLOBSorianoR25LopezR20ScottR25LileR15SuarezR12BurgerR1967
9THARRasmussenR8GonzalesR25O'BrienR17WilliamsR11MizeR19LeeR2563
10FRSTTolleR25RouppR25WheelerR8RumfieldR25DurbinR17SkubalR161
11PEYT ▼ thinSanchezR9HendersonR25WooR8WetherholtR13CameronR18NolaR1654
12RAGE ▼ thinEwingR25CamineroR5HerreraR20LeeR21BledayR25BibeeR1453

The bottom two rows are your trade marks — thin cupboards pay up for keepable pieces.

data: snap 0h · BP 3d · PL 3d · HL 13d · PSS 0h · BR 0h · FG 21h · proj 21h · closer 0h · oyster 18h · AAA-sc 7h · cookie ok
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