Miz-waukee’s Best — The Brandon League

Last updated Wednesday, September 16 · 04:21 AM ET

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☕ Morning Briefing

🏆 MIZ holds a commanding lead at 106.0 roto points, 18 back from Phil Swift's Flex Seal in 2nd — but watch two tight category edges: PEYT is just 1 SB behind you, and you trail GoOs by .001 AVG, worth a free roto point if the bats close it.

⚾ Your lineup went off yesterday: Cole Carrigg was the headliner with a 4-for-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 2 R demolition of the Padres, Bryce Eldridge added 2-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 R against the Cardinals, Kyle Schwarber hit his home run and scored twice against the Nationals, Miguel Vargas drove in 3 with a walk against the Guardians, and Jacob Misiorowski dealt 5 scoreless innings, 7 K against the Pirates for the win — a full-roster eruption on a day that should move several counting-stat categories.

🚨 Actionable closer news: Miami's save role has flipped from Pete Fairbanks to Michael Petersen, and Petersen is a free agent — if you need saves depth, that's your most urgent wire move today. Also worth noting: Blake Snell is your projected starter tonight, so confirm he's active.

📋 On the wire, Jonah Tong (+0.9σ underlying skill) was just dropped by Phil Swift's Flex Seal and is a free agent — legitimate stash candidate. Early-signal contact heat is also flashing on Connor Norby (L7: 82/99, 0.574 xwOBAcon, 14 BBE) and Michael Arroyo (L7: 80/99, 0.549 xwOBAcon, 8 BBE), both small sample but worth flagging before the Heat Board catches up.

ELIGIBILITYK. Schwarber 1B 8/10

Your standing

1stof 12

106.0 roto pts +18.0 clear of 2nd

no change vs last update

Top Gaps

W (7.0)

categories below mid-pack

🎯 Category Pressure

Category ranks vs. the league.

Rank →

Δ to #1

1005

1090

🥇

290

322

🥇

RBI

949

994

🥇

155

156

169

210

+54

AVG

.255

.256

.257

.261

+0.005

1264

1285

1445

+160

+13

101

+18

ERA

3.47

3.46

🥇

WHIP

1.16

🥇

📅 Yesterday's MIZ Box Scores (2026-09-15)

Loading box scores…

🏥 IL Rehab Tracker

IL players · rehab game logs.

On the IL, no rehab games yet: Spencer Schwellenbach (IL60 · watch).

📊 League Activity (last 24h)

All adds, drops, and trades across the 12 teams.

Team	Move
Phil Swift's Flex Seal	+ Andres Gimenez \| − Jonah Tong
Miz-waukee’s Best	+ Victor Mesa Jr. \| − Cam Smith
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	+ Andre Pallante \| − Pete Fairbanks

🏆 League Standings

Current roto points · 10,000-sim projected finish. FAAB = acquisition budget remaining.

100.0% to win the league · proj finish 1.0 · 104.7 roto pts

#	Team	Pts	FAAB	Win%	Proj Pts	Range	Proj Rk
1	MIZ Miz-waukee’s Best	106.0	$0	100.0%	104.7	103–107	1.0
2	PEYT Phil Swift's Flex Seal	88.0	$24	0.0%	91.7	89–94	2.0
3	KRTZ Photogenic Nick Kurtz	83.0	$16	0.0%	85.9	84–88	3.0
4	FRAN Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	79.0	$26	0.0%	79.0	77–82	4.0
5	BLOB Camp MVP	68.5	$168	0.0%	69.9	68–72	5.0
6	GoOs I need Buck Showalter	64.5	$170	0.0%	63.2	60–66	6.1
7	THAR Phil Mickeltits	61.0	$176	0.0%	58.7	56–61	7.2
8	KNIG Team Knighton	59.0	$132	0.0%	57.9	55–61	7.5
9	FRST Worst2First	47.0	$154	0.0%	47.2	45–50	9.2
10	DORN Dorn and Associates LLC	45.0	$89	0.0%	44.6	42–47	10.5
11	GARR The Boys of Summer	44.0	$155	0.0%	45.9	44–48	9.8
12	RAGE Ramirez Against the Machine	35.0	$163	0.0%	31.2	30–33	12.0

10,000 sims · fixed seed · noise CV talent 0.12 / idio 0.06 / team-cat 0.08 · assumes ATC rest-of-season rates

Your categories · projected roto points

R 12.0HR 12.0RBI 12.0SB 8.2AVG 9.5W 7.7SV 9.0K 10.9ERA 11.7WHIP 11.6

Winnable — push here: SB, AVG, W, SV.

🚨 Today's Streaming Board

169 of 200 GS · should be 188 · 19 behindBehind pace — stream aggressively

031 left · ~19.7/wk to cap · proj 180200

⏳ BP's post is late — Verdict pill is running on our score + Pitcher List for now (BP joins the top-2 once it posts).

Your starters + top FA streamers

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Blake Snell	@ CIN	AUTO START	—	6.9	#1	Elite arm, no caveats.
Jared Jones	vs MIL	START	—	6.7	#7	Two strong outings, slider generating outs.
Cristian Javier	vs KC	DART	—	4.9	#10	Trending better but six-inning production unlikely.
Yusei Kikuchi	vs SEA	DART	—	4.9	#12	Fell short of five frames last out; hoping for more.
George Kirby	@ LAA	DART	—	4.4	#11	Soft Angels matchup; sweeper should play well.
Jake Bennett	@ TEX	SIT	—	4.5	#16	Better command last out, fatigue risk looms late-season.
Merrill Kelly	vs MIA	SIT	—	3.6	#15	Changeup anchors a possible five-to-six inning floor.
Matthew Liberatore	vs SF	SIT	—	3.6	#17	Slider-to-RHB gains stalled; ratio risk prominent.
Keider Montero	@ TOR	SIT	—	4.1	#18	Terrible WHIP last out torpedoes primary streaming rationale.
Max Scherzer	vs DET	SIT	—	4.1	#20	One good outing was the exception, not the trend.
Zebby Matthews	vs NYY	SIT	—	4.2	#21	Tough Yankees matchup; early-season form unlikely to repeat.

Openers filtered: Brady Basso

Your staff: 3.46 ERA / 1.16 WHIP · GS 169/200 — Behind pace — stream aggressively. Verdict = the best 2 of BP · our score · Pitcher List, averaged (low outlier dropped); before BP posts it's our score + PL. ⚠ = our matchup score dissented — eyeball that one. Tap a MIZ score for the reasoning.

Tomorrow · top 5 FA · Thu 9/17 · BP not out yet, so pill = our score + Pitcher List

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Jeffrey Springs	@ TB	DART	—	4.6	—	soft TB lineup, weak skills
Dustin May	@ PIT	SIT	—	3.8	—	tough PIT lineup, short leash, hot recent form
Tanner Gordon	vs SD	SIT⚠ opener	—	3.3	—	average SD lineup, hitter park, shaky recent form
Seth Lugo	@ HOU	SIT	—	2.7	—	tough HOU lineup, shaky recent form, short leash
Brady Singer	vs LAD	SIT	—	0.5	—	tough LAD lineup, shaky recent form, short leash

📼 Streamer Report Card

Does the Streaming Board actually work? Every pick it showed, frozen at pick time and graded off the real box score. Two scoreboards below: first our own calls — the Verdict ladder and MIZ (our matchup score, 0–10) — then the outside lists behind them, BP (RelieverRecon's daily BP Streamers post) and PL (Pitcher List's tier ranking). Grades are recomputed from raw lines on every build — the rubric can change, the history follows.

Last 30d · 340 starts graded over 29 days · GOOD+ 44% · BLOWUP 19% · agg ERA 4.47 · WHIP 1.37 · 4.4 K/start · 373 picks logged, 21 never started, 12 awaiting a box score — not graded

Grade mix · all 340 graded starts

GEM 52 GOOD 99 OK 126 BLOWUP 63

GEM6+ IP, ≤1 ER · or 6+ IP, 8+ K, ≤2 ERGOODquality start (6+ IP, ≤3 ER) · or 5+ IP, ≤2 EROKheld the line without earning GOODBLOWUP5+ ER · or under 4 IP with 4+ ERGOOD+ = GEM + GOOD. A pick whose starter never took the ball grades to nothing and leaves every rate below.

Cohort	n	GOOD+	BLOWUP	ERA
Q1 — Do our own calls work? · Verdict ladder + MIZ bands · live board rows only, nothing backfilled
Verdict · AUTO START	21	67%	19%	3.96
Verdict · START	50	52%	14%	4.47
Verdict · DART	83	42%	19%	4.72
Verdict · SIT	186	41%	19%	4.42
MIZ ≥ 5.0	104	55%	21%	4.42
MIZ 3.5–4.9	132	39%	18%	4.73
MIZ < 3.5	86	42%	16%	4.29
All live board picks	340	44%	19%	4.47
Q1 read — GOOD+ falls 67% · 52% · 42% · 41% down the rungs, but BLOWUP does not rise with it, and MIZ does not sort: 55% · 39% · 42% from the top band down.
Q2 — Which outside list earns the weight? · BP and PL graded on their own published lists · mostly rebuilt from git
PL · Auto Start	21	57%	24%	4.84
PL · Probably Start	50	54%	16%	4.20
PL · Questionable Start	93	51%	18%	4.18
PL · Do Not Start	143	38%	21%	4.78
BP · Auto	6	50%	0%	3.45
BP · Likely	21	43%	19%	4.57
All graded picks	340	44%	19%	4.47
Q2 read — against the 44% all-picks baseline, PL's top tiers clear it (57% · 54%) and BP's top tiers are too thin to call (50% · 43% on n=6 · n=21).

Rows are overlapping lenses on the same picks, not a partition — one start can be a PL Auto Start and a Verdict SIT at once, so they never sum to the headline; each group is read against its own baseline row.

⚠ Dissent check — the override is ahead so far — 60% GOOD+ on n=5. Splits are picks the board started over our MIZ sit-call (vs 44% for all live picks).

Calibration — do our numbers mean anything? · full season, 2026-06-29→2026-09-15 · 1072 graded picks · MIZ on 528, BP on 230, Verdict on 553

The ladder above asks whether the tiers sort. This asks the harder question: is the number a probability — when the board says 7, do 70% of those starts come back GOOD+? Bins are equal-count and merge until every one clears n=15; the walk-forward rows are scored against a model that only ever saw earlier days.

Score bin	n	mean	GOOD+	95% CI
MIZ score → P(GOOD+) · our matchup score, 0–10 · live rows only · n=528
MIZ 0.5–3.3	125	2.7	42%	34%–51%
MIZ 3.4–4.0	97	3.7	42%	33%–52%
MIZ 4.1–4.8	105	4.4	51%	42%–61%
MIZ 4.9–5.6	103	5.2	50%	41%–60%
MIZ 5.7–8.9	98	6.4	58%	48%–67%
All MIZ-scored picks	528	—	49%	—
BP score → P(GOOD+) · RelieverRecon's published rating · includes git-backfilled rows · n=230
BP 4.6–6.6	48	6.1	35%	23%–50%
BP 6.7–7.3	44	7.0	52%	38%–66%
BP 7.4–7.7	47	7.5	45%	31%–59%
BP 7.8–8.4	47	8.1	47%	33%–61%
BP 8.5–10.0	44	9.1	43%	30%–58%
All BP-scored picks	230	—	44%	—
Verdict tier → P(GOOD+) · the consensus call itself · live rows only
AUTO START	35	—	66%	49%–79%
START	72	—	57%	45%–68%
DART	148	—	47%	39%–55%
SIT	298	—	45%	39%–51%

Out-of-sample	n	value	vs
Walk-forward probability · logistic on MIZ, refit daily on earlier days only · from 2026-08-05 · 41 days
Brier — our probability	464	0.250	lower is better
Brier — flat base rate to date	464	0.254	we win by 0.004
Brier — verdict-tier history	464	0.254	we win by 0.004
Log loss — our probability	464	0.693	lower is better
ECE — our probability	464	0.068	5 equal-count bins
ECE bins · predicted p vs what actually happened
said 32%–45%	93	44%	off by 3%
said 45%–50%	93	40%	off by 8%
said 50%–55%	92	45%	off by 8%
said 55%–59%	93	48%	off by 9%
said 59%–74%	93	57%	off by 7%
Verdict — usable with caveats: ECE 0.068 over n=464 out-of-sample picks (≤0.03 well calibrated · ≤0.07 usable with caveats); edges the flat base rate on Brier (0.250 vs 0.254, a thin margin; log-loss ~coin-flip).

🔥 Today's Hitter Streamers

Top 10 FA bats for today's slate · score = split vs SP hand (35%) + SP softness (35%) + bat quality (15%) + trailing 15 days (10%) + park (5%) · facing an elite arm fades the score hard (feast on weak pitchers).

#	Hitter	Matchup	Why	Legs	Score
1	AUTO STARTTy France1B · 14% own	@ COL · Adams RHP	szn .336 xwOBAL15: 0.904 OPS (41 PA)L14 contact +4.6 (.473 xwOBAcon, 23 BBE)usually bats 4th (×1.05)beats 2 of 3 eligible startersAdams .340 allowed · soft SP0.88 OPS vs RHP (280 AB)COL plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	83
2	AUTO STARTLars NootbaarLF · 2% own	vs MIA · Gusto RHP	szn .351 xwOBAL15: 0.873 OPS (39 PA)L14 contact +3.6 (.449 xwOBAcon, 23 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)fills OF needbeats 4 of 6 eligible startersGusto .336 allowed · soft SP0.781 OPS vs RHP (213 AB)AZ plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	74
3	STARTEduardo Valencia1B · 3% own	@ TOR · Scherzer RHP	szn .329 xwOBAL15: 0.878 OPS (26 PA)L14 contact +4.3 (.465 xwOBAcon, 18 BBE)usually bats 5thbeats 1 of 4 eligible startersshort side vs RHP — 53% of ABScherzer .323 allowed · avg SP0.933 OPS vs RHP (53 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	74
4	DEPTHLuis CampusanoC · 1% own	@ COL · Adams RHP	szn .332 xwOBAL15: 0.726 OPS (52 PA)L14 contact +0.2 (.374 xwOBAcon, 34 BBE)usually bats 6th (×0.98)beats 0 of 2 eligible startersAdams .340 allowed · soft SP0.828 OPS vs RHP (154 AB)COL plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	64
5	STARTJakob MarseeCF · 27% own	@ AZ · Kelly RHP	szn .309 xwOBAL15: 0.990 OPS (58 PA)L14 contact +0.7 (.386 xwOBAcon, 38 BBE)usually bats 6th (×0.98)fills OF needbeats 2 of 6 eligible startersKelly .384 allowed · soft SP0.7 OPS vs RHP (383 AB)AZ plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	62
6	AUTO STARTConnor Norby3B · 2% own	vs SD · Ray LHP	szn .308 xwOBAL15: 0.846 OPS (43 PA)L14 contact +6.0 (.515 xwOBAcon, 23 BBE)usually bats 2nd (×1.10)beats 4 of 6 eligible startersRay .336 allowed · soft SP0.703 OPS vs LHP (96 AB)COL plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	62
7	STARTKyle Karros3B · 2% own	vs SD · Ray LHP	szn .337 xwOBAL15: 0.696 OPS (30 PA)L14 contact +1.8 (.411 xwOBAcon, 18 BBE)usually bats 6th (×0.98)beats 1 of 3 eligible startersRay .336 allowed · soft SP0.789 OPS vs LHP (133 AB)COL plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	60
8	STARTRyan WardLF · 0% own	@ CIN · Abbott LHP	szn .316 xwOBAfills OF needbeats 5 of 10 eligible startersAbbott .341 allowed · soft SPCIN plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	59
9	DEPTHJhonny PeredaC · 0% own	@ LAA · Kikuchi LHP	szn .348 xwOBAusually bats 9th (×0.90)beats 0 of 2 eligible startersKikuchi .341 allowed · soft SP	L15 bat SP L/R park	55
10	STARTDustin HarrisLF · 0% own	@ COL · Adams RHP	szn .328 xwOBAL15: 0.670 OPS (32 PA)L14 contact -1.8 (.330 xwOBAcon, 23 BBE)usually bats 2nd (×1.10)fills OF needbeats 1 of 6 eligible startersAdams .340 allowed · soft SP0.71 OPS vs RHP (75 AB)COL plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	55

Tiers vs YOUR lineup tonight — median starter 55, worst Miguel Vargas (23). AUTO START = beats the median eligible starter.

TBD starter = neutral SP + split legs until the probable posts (refresh upgrades it). Splits need 30+ AB vs that hand. IL bats are excluded; bats who rarely start against tonight's hand are dropped. Doubleheaders: legs average the ends he plays, and everyday bats get up to a ×1.50 volume boost. Lineup slot scales the score by expected PAs from the bat's usual spot (leadoff ×1.12 … 9-hole ×0.90, modal over the last ~10 played days) — his typical order, not today's card, since that posts after waivers run.

🎯 FA Hitters — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Kyle Schwarber

1Lars NootbaarLF · Ari · 2.5%HEATER

Trusted 23-BBE heat board sample, 82/99 quality, .385 BA, best projection wRC+ 109 among heat leaders

Heat 82 · 23 BBE · ATC 35 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.248 · L7 0.417 · 1 HR · sim +0.1 pts

2Ty France

1B · SD · 14.1% · HEATER

23-BBE trusted sample, 84/99 heat score, .414 BA, highest ATC wRC+ 108 with real PA projection

Heat 84 · 23 BBE · ATC 49 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.259 · L7 0.6 · 0 HR · sim +0.1 pts

3Jose Siri

CF · LAA · 0.1% · CATEGORY FIT

Only real SB contributor; 1 SB last 7, ATC projects 1 SB; MIZ needs 13 SB to reach rank 3

Heat 77 · 18 BBE · ATC 26 PA · 1 HR · 1 SB · 0.215 · L7 0.429 · 1 HR · sim +0.1 pts

4Jordan Lawlar

3B · Ari · 2.5% · UPSIDE

18-BBE heat board, red-hot last 7 (1 HR, 4 R, 1 SB), SB upside directly addresses MIZ's live category gap

Heat 70 · 18 BBE · ATC 31 PA · 1 HR · 1 SB · 0.237 · L7 0.375 · 1 HR · sim +0.1 pts

5Nathaniel Lowe

1B · Cle · 1.5% · FLOOR

Largest trusted BBE sample (25), 76/99 heat, steady RBI/HR production, strong roster PA projection

Heat 76 · 25 BBE · ATC 27 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.250 · L7 0.214 · 1 HR · sim +0.1 pts

Passed on: Brett Baty's 85/99 heat score and 10 L14 RBI are compelling but 19-BBE borderline sample and sub-100 ATC wRC+ projection make him a close miss behind players with more SB upside or PA volume.

💪 Hitter List Rankings

PL Top 150 hitters · your bats + top FAs.

On Hitter List · 16 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Hitter	MLB	Pos	Chg	AVG	xwOBA	HR	SB	RoS	Chu’s Take
16	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	DH	+3	.239	.365	45	3	123
18	Randy Arozarena	SEA	OF	-	.277	.347	25	23	127
21	Miguel Vargas	CHW	1B/3B	+19	.249	.380	31	19	115	Miguel Vargas has returned to the levels we saw early this summer and that really revs my engine. He’s one of those players who has shown…
36	Yandy Díaz	TB	1B	+3	.299	.350	22	3	121
46	Zach Neto	LAA	SS	+11	.241	.310	26	20	111	Zach Neto has been a monster over the last nine games, with 17 hits, 18 combined runs and RBI (a seven RBI night helps), and seven extra-…
59	Jac Caglianone	KC	1B/OF	+13	.279	.355	23	6	107	Jac Caglianone still hits a lot of grounders, but not quite as many as before (the rolling 15-game rate is a hair below 50%) and the stri…
72	Ty France	SD	1B	+12	.295	.336	20	1	108
77	Royce Lewis	MIN	1B/2B/3B	-15	.230	.312	14	15	96	Royce Lewis is streaky. We just gotta deal with that.
85	Cole Carrigg	COL	SS/OF	-22	.270	.309	10	9	67	The strikeouts have creeped up on Cole Carrigg , up to 32% over his last 11 games (which is, conveniently, exactly 50 plate appearances).…
106	Luis Robert Jr.	BAL	OF	+UR	.221	.321	11	2	100
109	Mickey Gasper	BOS	C/1B	+UR	.267	.371	9	0	104	Mickey Gasper — Fantastic mustache, first of all. Second of all, the batted ball data suggests what’s happening of late is very real, tho…
115	Kaelen Culpepper	MIN	SS	+UR	.275	.304	3	1	89	Kaelen Culpepper — Culpepper puts a lot of balls in play and it’s working out so far. The BABIP Gods can be cruel, though. The 55 point g…
119	Rafael Flores Jr.	PIT	C/1B	+UR	.275	.335	8	0	82
133	Connor Norby	COL	1B/2B/3B	+UR	.234	.308	7	8	90	Connor Norby still has huge contact issues but the guy can hit the ball hard in the air and plays for Colorado so stream away.
135	Henry Bolte	ATH	OF	+UR	.275	.317	10	20	93	Henry Bolte is leading off again and should get some games in Sacramento soon, if you need a streamer.
137	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	BAL	1B/3B	+UR	.266	.341	9	1	91
143	Alejandro Kirk	TOR	C	+UR	.280	.312	10	1	113
145	Tyler Stephenson	CIN	C	-33	.246	.331	15	0	94
146	Ryan Jeffers	MIN	C	-29	.262	.353	14	1	116
148	Andruw Monasterio	BOS	2B/SS	-26	.239	.293	6	4	89
TS	Bryce Eldridge	SF	1B	—	.272	.354	17	1	99	Bryce Eldridge (1B, SFG) — Power prospects can often take a while to really shine.
TS	Walker Jenkins	Min	OF	—	.089	.244	1	1	102	Walker Jenkins (OF, MIN) — Jenkins will get the call today after a white-hot month in the triple-A. He’s worth a scoop in most leagues, E…
UR	Emmanuel Rodriguez	Min	OF	—	.333	.501	1	0	94	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	James Wood	Wsh	OF	—	.267	.413	30	21	126	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Leo Bernal	StL	C	—	.304	.405	3	0	84	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Victor Mesa Jr.	TB	OF	—	.257	.334	13	9	88	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.

🔥 Heat Board

Hottest ACTIVE free-agent bats by contact quality, 9/2–9/15 · Heat = percentile vs all MLB bats over the same window (xwOBAcon 30 · EV 20 · Brl 20 · HH 15 · K 10 · BB 5) · min 15 BBE to qualify (smaller samples live in the HM rail) · IL excluded.

Brett Baty

3B · NYM · 2.8% own · xwOBAcon .460 · EV 94.2 · Brl 21.1% · 19 BBE

▲ .121 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.229	10	50	48	5
L14	.350	2	10	3	0

Ty France

1B · SD · 14.1% own · xwOBAcon .473 · EV 93.0 · Brl 13.0% · 23 BBE

▲ .119 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.295	20	64	53	1
L14	.414	1	4	5	0

Lars Nootbaar

LF · Ari · 2.5% own · xwOBAcon .449 · EV 94.1 · Brl 8.7% · 23 BBE

▲ .143 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.242	7	31	31	2
L14	.385	1	4	2	0

Francisco Alvarez

C · NYM · 8.8% own · xwOBAcon .485 · EV 94.9 · Brl 11.8% · 17 BBE

▲ .003 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.228	15	37	33	0
L14	.231	2	3	3	0

Jose Siri

CF · LAA · 0.1% own · xwOBAcon .450 · EV 93.7 · Brl 16.7% · 18 BBE

▲ .037 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.232	8	28	32	7
L14	.269	1	5	3	1

Nathaniel Lowe

1B · Cle · 1.5% own · xwOBAcon .480 · EV 92.4 · Brl 12.0% · 25 BBE

▼ .049 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.255	17	59	38	0
L14	.206	2	7	4	0

Justin Foscue

2B · Tex · 0.4% own · xwOBAcon .472 · EV 91.1 · Brl 11.1% · 18 BBE

▲ .078 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.268	11	33	24	0
L14	.346	1	7	3	0

Eduardo Valencia

1B · Det · 2.8% own · xwOBAcon .465 · EV 90.5 · Brl 11.1% · 18 BBE

▲ .030 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.320	6	18	16	0
L14	.350	0	1	2	0

Moises Ballesteros

C · LAA · 1.8% own · xwOBAcon .381 · EV 90.4 · Brl 14.3% · 21 BBE

▲ .123 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.223	9	34	24	1
L14	.346	3	7	3	0

Jordan Lawlar

3B · Ari · 2.5% own · xwOBAcon .482 · EV 90.0 · Brl 16.7% · 18 BBE

▼ .050 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.264	5	13	15	5
L14	.214	1	3	4	1

Honorable mention · hottest L7 (9/9–9/15), not yet on the board · tiny samples — peek, don't trust

Connor Norby

3B · Col

.574 xwOBAcon

14 BBE · .400 L7

Michael Arroyo

2B · Sea

.549 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .500 L7

Brady House

3B · Wsh

.369 xwOBAcon

9 BBE · .111 L7

Enrique Hernandez

1B · LAD

.472 xwOBAcon

9 BBE · .333 L7

Jared Young

1B · NYM

.373 xwOBAcon

15 BBE · .294 L7

Cole Young

2B · Sea

.375 xwOBAcon

18 BBE · .286 L7

🎯 FA Pitchers — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Andres Munoz

1Merrill KellySP · Ari · 21.9%HEATER

89th-percentile suppression on 33 BBE (trusted), elite xwOBAcon, ratio-safe, #15 streamer rank

Supp 89 · 33 BBE · ATC 12.0 IP · 1 W · 10 K · 4.60 · 1.36 · PL #15 · sim -0.1 pts

2Jared Jones

SP · Pit · 26.9% · BEST VALUE

#7 streamer rank, 12K/2GS projection, 82nd-pct suppression on 25 BBE, ratio-safe 3.97/1.25

Supp 82 · 25 BBE · ATC 12.0 IP · 1 W · 12 K · 3.97 · 1.25 · PL #7 · sim -0.1 pts

3Rico Garcia

RP · Bal · 11.2% · CATEGORY FIT

Confirmed closer role, saves upside, 80th-pct suppression direction; SV gap to rank 3 is exploitable

Supp 80 · 14 BBE · ATC 4.0 IP · 0 W · 4 K · 4.22 · 1.30 · 1 SV · Closer · sim -0.1 pts

4Steven Cruz

RP · KC · 1.4% · CATEGORY FIT

Confirmed closer, 88th-pct suppression heat despite sub-15 BBE, ratio-clean ATC; saves play with upside

Supp 88 · 11 BBE · ATC 5.0 IP · 0 W · 4 K · 4.24 · 1.31 · 1 SV · Closer · sim -0.1 pts

5Ryan Zeferjahn

RP · ChC · 1.2% · FLOOR

Confirmed closer role, cleanest ATC ratios among closer FAs, protects ERA/WHIP supremacy

Supp 62 · 10 BBE · ATC 4.0 IP · 0 W · 5 K · 4.08 · 1.33 · Closer · sim -0.1 pts

Passed on: Juan Morillo is a confirmed closer but 16th-percentile suppression on 11 BBE (0.451 xwOBAcon) is a hard ratio-poison flag that threatens MIZ's razor-thin ERA/WHIP leads.

⚾ Pitcher List Rankings

PL Top 100 SP · your arms + top FAs.

On Pitcher List · 6 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Pitcher	MLB	Chg	ERA	xERA	K/9	RoS	Pollack’s Take
1	Jacob Misiorowski	MIL	-	1.89	2.10	13.1	3.40	Like a base set Charizard, Misiorowski’s not gonna stop being dope.
9	Blake Snell	LAD	+7	1.91	2.10	12.2	3.31	#HotSnellSummer is in full swing.
10	Dylan Cease	TOR	-1	2.38	2.80	12.8	3.45	Like a perfect burger without the condiments to hit all your macros, Cease gives you everything except for a stable WHIP due to his infla…
20	Kyle Harrison	MIL	+8	3.98	3.86	10.9	4.19	With a dominant outing, he muted our concerns, but Harrison’s still displaying decreased velocity and not commanding as well as he did in…
22	Eury Pérez	MIA	-4	3.99	4.11	9.7	3.91	Pérez has the stuff to be an ace, but there’s polishing to do in the command and game plan departments to unlock his full potential.
29	Sean Burke	CHW	-4	3.47	3.83	9.7	4.43	Burke’s hot streak has come to a brief pause, but he’s still doing everything he’s supposed to with elite four-seamers upstairs and suppo…
30	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	-4	3.86	3.91	6.5	4.17	Baseball’s premier innings eater hasn’t ruined his appetite.
38	Jacob Lopez	ATH	+6	5.02	3.51	8.4	4.55	It’s the 2025 hot streak all over again. Enjoy the ride, ya’ll!
39	Dustin May	MIL	-	4.49	4.25	8.7	4.18	May got Singled Out in a disastrous performance, but his stuff is still dope, and his new situation is ideal. Higher win chance, great de…
40	Walbert Ureña	LAA	-	2.88	3.41	8.6	4.49	Armed with upper-90s heaters and one of the best changeups in baseball, Ureña has hit few speed bumps. If that developing sweeper becomes…
43	Andrew Painter	PHI	+UR	5.54	4.56	7.8	4.71	From off The List to inside the Top 50, Painter has stolen our hearts with an improved heater (97+ mph with 17-18″ iVB) and emphasis on r…
45	Peter Lambert	HOU	-4	3.71	3.69	8.7	4.61	Lambert’s stumble last time was a product of being Singled Out . He’s been reliable all year, but we should be recognizing that Holly is …
46	Jared Jones	PIT	-8	4.10	3.43	10.5	3.97	The stuff is top-tier, but he’s still shaking off the Tommy John surgery rust with his command and the tight leash the Pirates have on hi…
54	Joey Cantillo	CLE	-8	3.89	4.17	9.9	4.05	Efficiency is a problem, but Cantillo is doing everything we want. More curveballs, faster fastballs, and supportive cutters. Throw more …
56	Shane Bieber	TOR	+14	4.37	5.98	7.1	4.05	Bieber is back in business. His heater looked awesome in The Trop, and his offspeed pitches are being the CSW monsters they need to be to…
58	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	-	3.77	3.88	6.1	4.67	Despite what the line suggests, Pfaadt’s last start wasn’t an end to his Vargas Rule . It was a textbook Careful, Icarus with a three-run…

🔒 Closer Chart

Save targets · roles + regression flags.

🚨 Closer Tier Changes (vs. yesterday)

COLOR SHIFT Baltimore Orioles: Rico Garcia → Rico Garcia ( → magenta) FA — ADD
COLOR SHIFT Chicago White Sox: Grant Taylor → Grant Taylor (blue → magenta) rostered
ROLE CHANGE Miami Marlins: Pete Fairbanks → Michael Petersen (yellow → blue) FA — ADD

BLUEEntrenched closer (highest leverage)GREENNext man up / committee pieceYELLOWSetup, 8th-inning leverageORANGESpeculative / lower priorityMAGENTAHigh-upside future / multi-inning

	Pitcher	Tm	Role	SV	SVHD	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K/9	Rtg / Own
Yours on the chart
—	Andrés Muñoz	Seattle Mariners	CL	27	27	55.0	4.25	1.18	3.36	14.1	5.0 · —
—	Louis Varland	Toronto Blue Jays	CL	33	38	75.0	1.32	1.01	2.33 ↑	11.2	5.0 · —
Top 5 FA closers (by team rating)
	Rico Garcia b2b	Baltimore Orioles	CL	9	27	64.3	2.94	0.96	2.98	9.1	4.0 · 11%
—	Dylan Smith	San Francisco Giants	CL	4	11	35.3	3.06	1.39	3.86	10.4	4.0 · 0%
—	Steven Cruz HLR	Kansas City Royals	CL	7	12	55.7	4.04	1.24	4.02	9.5	3.5 · 1%
	Ryan Zeferjahn	Chicago Cubs	CL	6	19	66.0	4.09	1.29	3.24	12.3	3.0 · 1%
	Michael Petersen	Miami Marlins	CL	1	26	61.3	3.08	1.11	3.34	10.9	3.0 · 2%

ERA cell: green <3.00 · red >4.50. xERA arrow: ↓ ERA likely to fall (buy) · ↑ ERA likely to rise (sell). Triggers when |xERA−ERA| ≥ 1.00.

✂️ Cut List

Drop priority · value, form, pedigree, role.

51	Royce Lewis 3B · Min low TV (17) sim cost ~0	TV 17 Rd 13
39	Kyle Harrison SP · Mil low TV (28); UFDA — easy to drop; BUT top-tier keeper sim cost ~0	TV 28 UFDA
22	Sandy Alcantara SP · Mia mid TV (58); BUT solid keeper sim cost ~0	TV 58 Rd 14
14	Joe Ryan SP · Min BUT high-pedigree (Rd 5) sim cost ~0	TV 71 Rd 5
12	Yandy Diaz 1B · TB BUT AVG specialist (0.299); BUT strong RoS (121 wRC+) sim cost ~0	TV 73 Rd 9

Higher score = drop sooner — top 5 by score, and only 8+ reaches the board, so the number has no ceiling and is only comparable within this list. The sim line is a roto-sim marginal (cut vs. keep on one shared set of draws), not a measured cost. Pedigree + named closers shielded.

🌱 Stash List

PL's top prospects · grab them cheap.

Hitters

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 24: Top 10 Hitting Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + PSS + PFV + age + 40-man + path.

19 available

M. Arroyo

SS · SEA · AAA · 21 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

19·18·.284

S. Thompson

OF · COL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

15·21·.311

J. Tibbs III

OF · LAD · AAA · 23 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

29·10·.291

H. Mendez

OF · MIN · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

12·5·.281

R. Clifford

1B · NYM · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

17·8·.182

C. Ingle

C · CLE · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

20·2·.282

M. Anderson

2B · DET · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

17·5·.299

S. King

SS/2B/3B · WSN · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

19·15·.303

C. Cannarella

OF · MIA · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

15·21·.327

E. Arroyo

SS · CIN · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

15·14·.281

R. Ward

LF · LAD · AAA · 28 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

21·8·.245

J. Long

1B · CHC · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

16·3·.274

J. Made

SS · MIL · AA · 19 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

14·37·.271

S. Walcott

3B/SS · TEX · AA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

10·12·.329

K. Alderman

OF · MIA · AAA · 23 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

18·10·.249

Z. Hope

OF · DET · AA · 21 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

29·26·.287

A. Miller

SS · PHI · AA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

0·1·.333

T. Troy

SS · ARI · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

8·8·.276

D. Crisantes

2B/3B · ARI · AAA · 21 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

10·0·.292

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

Pitchers

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 24: Top 10 Pitching Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + L3 quality + FV + age + 40-man + path.

25 available

O. Murphy

SP · ATL · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

127K·3.63

T. Johnson

SP · TBR · AAA · 24 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

89K·3.17

B. Hopkins

SP · TBR · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

123K·5.31

B. Mautz

SP · STL · AAA · 24 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

104K·4.27

H. Smith

SP · CHW · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

August 1st

Szn

119K·3.25

M. Ullola

SP · HOU · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

100K·4.12

L. Perales

SP · WSN · AAA · 23 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

106K·4.18

A. Kelly

SP · PIT · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

80K·4.34

C. Seymour

SP · SFG · AAA · 27 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

89K·4.15

K. Curtis

SP · PIT · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

115K·4.93

R. Snelling

SP · MIA · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

46K·2.38

D. Davalillo

SP · TEX · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

106K·4.62

J. Wenninger

SP · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

122K·4.21

M. Bratt

SP · ARI · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

84K·3.88

G. Wood

SP · PHI · AA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

'26

Szn

139K·4.36

T. Bremner

SP · LAA · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

100K·4.33

E. Rodriguez

SP · NYY · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

126K·3.05

T. McDougal

SP · CHW · AAA · 23 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

50K·5.09

R. Ryan

SP · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

47K·4.39

B. Garrett

SP · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

June 1st

Szn

114K·3.76

C. Dana

SP · LAA · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

85K·5.52

R. Sloan

SP · SEA · AA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

128K·3.73

C. Crow

SP · MIL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

106K·3.95

T. Gibson

SP · BAL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

107K·5.26

L. Braun

SP · ATL · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

112K·4.18

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

🔭 14 not a 2026 factor — Anthony Eyanson · Jackson Ferris · Liam Doyle · Christian Zazueta · Jackson Wolf · Jurrangelo Cijntje · Jamie Arnold · Bryce Mayer · Daniel Eagen · David Hagaman · Jonathan Santucci · Joseph Dzierwa · Jaxon Wiggins · Karson Milbrandt

💼 Trades

Buy-low targets · league trade history.

Top Buy-Lows

Rebound candidates · suggested offers.

Hitters

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Juan Soto RF · NYM · GARR · jregarris +1.2σ buy-low · RF — fits a need · BA 0.273 / xBA 0.292 · xwOBA 0.413	100%	158 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Kyle Schwarber DH · comparable value (TV 100 vs target 100)
📈 BUY-LOW	Cal Raleigh C · Sea · KNIG · TKHOO +1.8σ buy-low · C — modest fit · BA 0.181 / xBA 0.190 · xwOBA 0.314	85%	128 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Miguel Vargas 3B · comparable value (TV 77 vs target 82)
📈 BUY-LOW	Mike Trout OF · LAA · KNIG · TKHOO +1.3σ buy-low · OF — fits a need · BA 0.244 / xBA 0.253 · xwOBA 0.378	90%	126 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Joe Ryan SP · comparable value (TV 71 vs target 77)
📈 BUY-LOW	Heriberto Hernandez LF · Mia · FRAN · francisw789 +1.3σ buy-low · LF — fits a need · BA 0.226 / xBA 0.244 · xwOBA 0.351	8%	99 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Royce Lewis 3B · comparable value (TV 17 vs target 23)
📈 BUY-LOW	JJ Bleday CF · Cin · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.3σ buy-low · CF — fits a need · BA 0.214 / xBA 0.239 · xwOBA 0.342	20%	100 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Kyle Harrison SP · comparable value (TV 28 vs target 26)
↑ mild buy	Yordan Alvarez OF · Hou · PEYT · simplejack2k9 +0.9σ buy-low · OF — fits a need · BA 0.310 / xBA 0.319 · xwOBA 0.443	100%	165 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Kyle Schwarber DH · comparable value (TV 100 vs target 100)
↑ mild buy	Taylor Ward LF · Sea · GoOs · My Best Guys +0.7σ buy-low · LF — fits a need · BA 0.225 / xBA 0.241 · xwOBA 0.335	56%	119 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Sandy Alcantara SP · comparable value (TV 58 vs target 60)
↑ mild buy	Ian Happ LF · ChC · FRAN · francisw789 +0.8σ buy-low · LF — fits a need · BA 0.219 / xBA 0.208 · xwOBA 0.317	69%	109 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 34 vs target 41)
↑ mild buy	Kyle Stowers LF · Mia · KNIG · TKHOO +0.7σ buy-low · LF — fits a need · BA 0.242 / xBA 0.227 · xwOBA 0.326	27%	111 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Kyle Harrison SP · comparable value (TV 28 vs target 27)
↑ mild buy	Jarren Duran LF · Bos · RAGE · glhoward40 +0.8σ buy-low · LF — fits a need · BA 0.205 / xBA 0.234 · xwOBA 0.298	65%	100 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Eury Perez SP + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 50 vs target 57)

Pitchers

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Kodai Senga SP · NYM · KRTZ · FratSkins +1.1σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 7.02 vs xERA 5.11	11%	3.88 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Cole Carrigg CF · comparable value (TV 11 vs target 14)
↑ mild buy	Kade Anderson SP · Sea · RAGE · glhoward40 +0.7σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 5.33 vs xERA 4.25	19%	4.57 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Cole Carrigg CF · comparable value (TV 11 vs target 16)

League History

Completed trades · frozen grade at the deal + live grade now.

Side	Sent	At deal	Now	Trend
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Andy Pages	A- +7	A+ +45	▲ up
Camp MVP	Pete Crow-Armstrong	C -7	F -45	▼ down
Team Knighton ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Team Knighton	Matthew Boyd	F -22	F -23
Camp MVP	Kenley Jansen	A+ +22	A+ +23
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Worst2First 2026-08-10
Miz-waukee’s Best	Charlie Condon, Payton Tolle	A+ +50	A+ +32	▼ down
Worst2First	Dylan Cease	F -50	F -32	▲ up
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Dorn and Associates LLC 2026-08-05
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Travis Bazzana, George Lombard Jr., Nolan McLean	A+ +144	A+ +106	▼ down
Dorn and Associates LLC	Jackson Chourio, Jhoan Duran, Brice Turang, David Bednar	F -144	F -106	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-07-31
Miz-waukee’s Best	Samuel Basallo, Kade Anderson	A- +8	A+ +58	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine	Blake Snell	C -8	F -58	▼ down
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Team Knighton 2026-07-23
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Jo Adell, Jacob deGrom	F -49	F -64	▼ down
Team Knighton	Trea Turner	A+ +49	A+ +64	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine ⇄ Miz-waukee’s Best 2026-07-19
Ramirez Against the Machine	Sandy Alcantara	F -42	F -29	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best	Josh Jung	A+ +42	A+ +29	▼ down
I need Buck Showalter ⇄ Hit the Damn Ball You Bums 2026-06-19
I need Buck Showalter	Nasim Nunez	A+ +28	A +11	▼ down
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Justin Wrobleski	F -28	D -11	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ The Boys of Summer 2026-06-12
Miz-waukee’s Best	Chandler Simpson	A +10	A- +7	▼ down
The Boys of Summer	$30 FAAB	D -10	C -7	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-05-01
Miz-waukee’s Best	Kenley Jansen	—	A- +7
Camp MVP	$30 FAAB	A- +3	C -7	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-04-22
Miz-waukee’s Best	Nathan Eovaldi, $70 FAAB	—	F -41
Ramirez Against the Machine	Jac Caglianone	A+ +60	A+ +41	▼ down

🔻 Sell-High — My Roster

Surface line outrunning the underlying skill — trade-value peaks. σ = his surface-stat z-score minus his Statcast-skill z-score, both against the league reference for his side — bigger σ = further ahead of the skill. Pair with Buy-Low Targets.

Verdict	Player	Own	Surface vs expected	Contact	2027 keeper
↓ SHOP	Cole Carrigg CF · Col 0.81σ sell-high · CF · BA 0.261 / xBA 0.245 · xwOBA 0.309 — test the market, don't force it	12%	BA 0.261 / xBA 0.245 +.016 wOBA 0.335 / xwOBA 0.309 +.026	HH 34.6% · Brl/PA 3.4%	25th · +5 rds vs mkt
↓ SHOP	Yandy Diaz 1B · TB 0.61σ sell-high · 1B · BA 0.301 / xBA 0.285 · xwOBA 0.350 — test the market, don't force it	93%	BA 0.301 / xBA 0.285 +.016 wOBA 0.360 / xwOBA 0.350 +.010	HH 48.4% · Brl/PA 5.5%	7th · +1 rd vs mkt
↓ SHOP	Henry Bolte RF · Oak 0.56σ sell-high · RF · BA 0.275 / xBA 0.246 · xwOBA 0.317 — test the market, don't force it	11%	BA 0.275 / xBA 0.246 +.029 wOBA 0.339 / xwOBA 0.317 +.022	HH 47.6% · Brl/PA 4.5%	25th · +5 rds vs mkt

👥 Your Roster

Your roster · news + buy/sell signals.

News (last 24h)

Player news · last 24h.

Cole Carrigg Cole Carrigg goes 4 for 5 and the Rockies defeat the Padres 9-3 to end their 8-game losing streak
Wed 09-16 05:47 AM
— Cole Carrigg homered twice and finished 4 for 5, Troy Johnston had three hits and two RBI, and the Colorado Rockies defeated the San Diego Padres 9-3 on Tuesday night to end an eight-game losing streak.
Jacob Misiorowski Brewers clinch 4th NL Central title in row with win, Cubs loss
Wed 09-16 05:28 AM
The Brewers won their fourth straight National League Central title after the second-place Cubs lost to Atlanta on Tuesday night.
Bryce Eldridge Giants down the Cardinals 10-3
Wed 09-16 02:54 AM
Giants down the Cardinals 10-3
Bryce Eldridge Bryce Eldridge drives in 3 runs as the Giants cruise to a 10-3 win over Cardinals
Wed 09-16 02:53 AM
— Bryce Eldridge hit a two-run homer and drove in three runs, lifting the San Franciso Giants to a 10-3 victory over the St. Louis Cardinals on Tuesday night.
Jacob Misiorowski Misiorowski tosses 5 shutout innings, Brewers top Pirates 5-1 to win 4th straight NL Central title
Wed 09-16 02:27 AM
— Jacob Misiorowski struck out seven in five shutout innings and the Milwaukee Brewers won their their fourth straight National League Central title with a 5-1 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates on Tuesday night.
Jacob Misiorowski Brewers beat the Pirates 5-1 on the road
Wed 09-16 01:46 AM
Brewers beat the Pirates 5-1 on the road

Leverage Buys/Sells

Buy/sell windows · surface vs. underlying.

Hitters

Player	Pos	MLB	BA	xBA	wOBA	xwOBA	Brl%	Own%	Signal
James Wood	LF	Wsh	0.267	0.273	0.392	0.413	100.0	99.0	📈 BUY-LOW
Kyle Schwarber	DH	Phi	0.239	0.240	0.371	0.365	99.0	99.5	📈 BUY-LOW
Miguel Vargas	3B	ChW	0.249	0.265	0.361	0.380	89.0	94.6	📈 BUY-LOW
Bryce Eldridge	1B	SF	0.272	0.258	0.357	0.354	74.0	14.3	fair
Jac Caglianone	RF	KC	0.279	0.279	0.354	0.355	90.0	45.2	fair
Zach Neto	SS	LAA	0.241	0.215	0.334	0.310	75.0	61.0	fair
Randy Arozarena	LF	Sea	0.277	0.258	0.373	0.347	52.0	94.0	fair
Yandy Diaz	1B	TB	0.299	0.285	0.360	0.350	46.0	92.5	↓ mild fade
Cole Carrigg	CF	Col	0.270	0.245	0.335	0.309	23.0	11.9	↓ mild fade
Walker Jenkins	CF	Min	0.089	0.152	0.200	0.244	—	4.0	fair
Henry Bolte	RF	Oak	0.275	0.246	0.339	0.317	48.0	11.4	↓ mild fade
Kaelen Culpepper DTD	SS	Min	0.275	0.249	0.335	0.304	—	4.4	fair
Royce Lewis	3B	Min	0.230	0.241	0.301	0.312	72.0	11.8	↑ mild buy
Emmanuel Rodriguez	CF	Min	0.333	0.342	0.378	0.501	37.5	-1.0	—
Leo Bernal	C	StL	0.304	0.323	0.402	0.405	—	4.4	fair
Victor Mesa Jr.	LF	TB	0.257	0.251	0.364	0.334	—	17.3	fair

Pitchers

Pitcher	Pos	MLB	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K-BB%	xwOBA-a	Brl%-a	Own%	Signal
Blake Snell	SP	LAD	37.7	1.91	1.09	2.10	22.7	0.225	1.2	91.2	↑ mild buy
Andres Munoz	RP	Sea	55.0	4.25	1.18	3.36	27.4	0.284	9.2	80.1	↑ mild buy
Joe Ryan	SP	Min	133.7	4.24	1.17	3.67	20.7	0.296	10.2	87.1	fair
Jacob Misiorowski	SP	Mil	166.3	1.89	0.81	2.10	31.6	0.225	3.9	99.2	fair
Kyle Harrison	SP	Mil	110.7	3.98	1.31	3.86	21.3	0.303	8.6	47.0	fair
Sandy Alcantara	SP	Mia	205.0	3.86	1.23	3.91	10.7	0.305	5.6	82.9	fair
Dylan Cease	SP	Tor	166.3	2.38	1.06	2.80	24.6	0.260	5.3	99.2	fair
Eury Perez	SP	Mia	144.3	3.99	1.24	4.11	15.1	0.312	10.2	68.2	fair
Louis Varland	RP	Tor	75.0	1.32	1.01	2.33	23.9	0.237	3.8	85.6	fair

📰 MLB News — Top Fantasy Stories

🔒 Keepers — 2027 Slate

Peter's model (additive): rounds-saved (cost arbitrage spine) + current skill + career-grade pedigree + sample stability + Statcast over/under-performance trend, with age-decline (33+), closer/RP, and top-30 talent adjustments. Heavy on bargain-hunting.
Claude's model (multiplicative dynasty index): EFV(2027) = (3 + skill + upside) × age_mult × pos_mult; score = EFV − cost_replacement − mookie-lock. Compounds age curve and position scarcity.
Sorted by consensus rank (average of both models). MLB-inactive players surfaced in 🚑 Return Watch below.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict	Notes
1.5	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	25th	#1 (+26.3)	#2 (+29.9)	S · $30	UFDA
1.5	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	21st	#2 (+24.5)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51	UFDA-G FV 55
3.5	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	22nd	#3 (+17.5)	#4 (+15.6)	A · $16
4.5	Bryce Eldridge	1B · 20yo	25th	#4 (+16.1)	#5 (+14.4)	A · $14	UFDA FV 55
4.5	Zach Neto	SS · 25yo	10th	#6 (+13.9)	#3 (+16.1)	A · $16
5.5	Henry Bolte	RF · 21yo	25th	#5 (+14.9)	#6 (+14.4)	A · $14	UFDA FV 40
7.5	Eury Perez	SP · 23yo	20th	#7 (+13.6)	#8 (+11.2)	A · $11	UFDA-G
7.5	Dylan Cease	SP · 30yo	4th	#8 (+12.0)	#7 (+11.7)	A · $12

NEW UFDA cap: Peter 3/3 · Claude 3/3 · BOTH = top 8 in both models. Peter only = his model values cost surplus more; Claude only = mine values projection / position scarcity more.

🚑 Return watch — would be keeper-eligible if they get MLB action this year. Rank shown is hypothetical (where they'd slot if eligible).

Player	Pos · Age	Cost	Peter (if elig.)	Claude (if elig.)
Emmanuel Rodriguez	CF · 22yo	25th	#13 (+3.9)	#11 (+5.4)

Updated Wed Sep 16 · 4:22 AM ET

🌍 League-Wide Top Keepers

Top 10 keepers · all 12 teams · both models. Yours in green.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	Team	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict
1.5	Jesus Luzardo	SP · 28yo	KNIG	21st	#1 (+29.1)	#2 (+42.1)	S · $42
2.5	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	MIZ	21st	#4 (+24.5)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51
3.5	Jordan Walker	RF · 24yo	GARR	25th	#2 (+27.0)	#5 (+38.7)	S · $39
4.5	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	MIZ	25th	#3 (+26.3)	#6 (+29.9)	S · $30
4.5	Bryan Baker	RP · 31yo	DORN	25th	#5 (+24.2)	#4 (+38.7)	S · $39
6.5	Cam Schlittler	SP · 24yo	KRTZ	19th	#10 (+19.7)	#3 (+40.8)	S · $41
8.5	Payton Tolle	SP · 22yo	FRST	25th	#6 (+23.4)	— (+19.8)	S · $20
9.0	Ben Rice	1B · 27yo	DORN	20th	#7 (+22.3)	— (+15.2)	A · $15
9.0	Gavin Williams	SP · 26yo	THAR	11th	— (+13.9)	#7 (+23.6)	S · $24
9.5	Jose Soriano	SP · 27yo	BLOB	25th	#8 (+21.3)	— (+18.5)	S · $18
9.5	Junior Caminero	3B · 22yo	RAGE	5th	— (+12.3)	#8 (+23.3)	S · $23
10.0	Logan Henderson	SP · 23yo	PEYT	25th	#9 (+20.1)	— (+15.8)	A · $16
10.0	Riley O'Brien	RP · 31yo	THAR	17th	— (+12.3)	#9 (+21.9)	S · $22
10.5	Cristopher Sanchez	SP · 29yo	PEYT	9th	— (+17.4)	#10 (+21.1)	S · $21

Updated Wed Sep 16 · 4:22 AM ET

🏚️ Keeper Cupboards

Every team's six best keepers · shade = dual-model consensus value. Cupboard score weights the top four heavily (the slots that get kept), keepers 5–8 taper. 100 = league's best cupboard.

Team	K1	K2	K3	K4	K5	K6	Cupboard
1MIZ	VargasR25	MisiorowskiR21	VarlandR22	EldridgeR25	NetoR10	BolteR25	100
2DORN	BakerR25	RiceR20	McLeanR20	BazzanaR25	AnthonyR18	LaraR25	78
3KNIG	LuzardoR21	deGromR13	JensenR20	AbreuR15	MartinezR25	RodriguezR25	75
4FRAN	McCarthyR25	LatzR25	CavalliR21	AntonacciR25	BurnsR5	LoweR8	65
5KRTZ	SchlittlerR19	BengeR25	SanojaR25	McGonigleR17	StewartR10	IIR5	62
6THAR	WilliamsR11	RasmussenR8	O'BrienR17	KeaschallR21	Jr.R16	MarshR25	57
7PEYT	HendersonR25	SanchezR9	WooR8	ClarkR22	CameronR18	MayoR17	57
8GARR	WalkerR25	MessickR18	CanzoneR25	GrayR7	MerrillR1	DeLauterR14	54
9GoOs	GriffinR25	BradleyR25	GoodmanR21	BaldwinR14	BurlesonR9	WachaR25	54
10FRST	TolleR25	RouppR25	WheelerR8	MuncyR18	SkubalR1	RumfieldR25	50
11RAGE ▼ thin	EwingR25	CamineroR5	JonesR25	BasalloR19	HerreraR20	ImanagaR9	47
12BLOB ▼ thin	SorianoR25	LopezR20	ScottR25	LileR15	SaleR1	SuarezR12	46

The bottom two rows are your trade marks — thin cupboards pay up for keepable pieces.

data: snap 0h · BP 22d · PL 22d · HL 19d · PSS 0h · BR 0h · FG 15h · proj 17h · closer 0h · oyster 15h · AAA-sc 5h · cookie ok