Miz-waukee’s Best — The Brandon League

Last updated Saturday, August 29 · 11:35 AM ET

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Any player in the league universe · tap a result for the card.

☕ Morning Briefing

🏆 MIZ sits comfortably at 1st with 106.0 roto points, a 24.5-point cushion over 2nd — but keep an eye on the SV category, where KRTZ is just 3 saves back, and the SB gap (5 behind THAR) is the easiest single point to chase down.

⚡ Your bats and arm delivered last night: Dylan Cease was the headliner, going 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 8 K for the win against the Mariners, while Yandy Diaz, Bryce Eldridge, and Pedro Ramirez each went deep — Diaz and Eldridge both 2-for-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI, and Ramirez adding 1 HR, 3 RBI in 4 at-bats. The one blemish: Eury Perez got knocked around for 5 ER in 3.0 IP — worth monitoring. Make sure Sandy Alcantara and Blake Snell are in your active lineup tonight.

🔭 On the stash board, Sebastian Walcott (Pipeline #9, RI 90, currently a FA) went 2-for-5 with a HR, RBI, and SB at AA — a clean multi-tool line from a prospect already on your radar at that spot.

📰 Around the league: Max Fried is expected to be activated from the 15-day IL after missing just the minimum with an elbow bone bruise, which restores one of the better southpaws in the game to full availability — worth tracking if you have bullpen room to weaponize. Edmundo Sosa hit a pinch-hit grand slam to walk off the Angels in the ninth for Philadelphia, a notable pop-up performance. The White Sox, in a remarkable run, now lead the AL Central by 3.5 games after improving to 71-63 — historically the most wins by any team coming off three-plus consecutive 100-loss seasons — while Tarik Skubal delivered a quality start for the fourth time in five outings since moving to Los Angeles.

ELIGIBILITYK. Schwarber 1B 6/10P. Ramirez 1B 4/10

Your standing

1stof 12

106.0 roto pts +24.5 clear of 2nd

no change vs last update

Top Gaps

SB (7.0) W (8.0)

categories below mid-pack

🎯 Category Pressure

Category ranks vs. the league.

Rank →

Δ to #1

902

983

🥇

262

288

🥇

RBI

843

869

🥇

126

131

136

190

+59

AVG

.254

.256

.257

.259

+0.003

1130

1164

1274

+110

+10

+11

ERA

3.41

3.19

🥇

WHIP

1.17

1.11

🥇

📅 Yesterday's MIZ Box Scores (2026-08-28)

Loading box scores…

🏥 IL Rehab Tracker

IL players · rehab game logs.

On the IL, no rehab games yet: James Wood (IL10), Joe Ryan (IL15), Spencer Schwellenbach (IL60 · watch).

📊 League Activity (last 24h)

All adds, drops, and trades across the 12 teams.

Team	Move
Camp MVP	+ Josue De Paula
Camp MVP	+ Franklin Arias
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	+ Martin Perez \| − Andrew Painter
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	+ Cal Quantrill \| − David Peterson
Camp MVP	− Andres Gimenez
Camp MVP	− Maikel Garcia

🏆 League Standings

Current roto points · 10,000-sim projected finish. FAAB = acquisition budget remaining.

99.9% to win the league · proj finish 1.0 · 102.6 roto pts

#	Team	Pts	FAAB	Win%	Proj Pts	Range	Proj Rk
1	MIZ Miz-waukee’s Best	106.0	$0	99.9%	102.6	98–106	1.0
2	FRAN Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	81.5	$74	0.1%	86.4	81–92	2.2
3	PEYT Phil Swift's Flex Seal	78.5	$34	0.0%	80.3	74–87	3.2
4	KRTZ Photogenic Nick Kurtz	75.5	$25	0.0%	78.4	72–85	3.6
5	GoOs I need Buck Showalter	74.0	$170	0.0%	71.9	66–77	5.0
6	BLOB Camp MVP	68.5	$168	0.0%	68.8	65–72	5.7
7	THAR Phil Mickeltits	61.5	$176	0.0%	59.3	53–65	7.3
8	KNIG Team Knighton	57.0	$137	0.0%	55.8	50–61	8.0
9	GARR The Boys of Summer	51.5	$155	0.0%	53.3	48–59	8.6
10	RAGE Ramirez Against the Machine	43.0	$163	0.0%	37.2	33–41	11.8
11	DORN Dorn and Associates LLC	41.5	$89	0.0%	42.0	38–47	10.7
12	FRST Worst2First	41.5	$154	0.0%	44.0	39–49	10.3

10,000 sims · fixed seed · noise CV talent 0.12 / idio 0.06 / team-cat 0.08 · assumes ATC rest-of-season rates

Your categories · projected roto points

R 12.0HR 12.0RBI 11.6SB 7.3AVG 8.9W 6.9SV 9.0K 10.8ERA 12.0WHIP 12.0

Winnable — push here: SB, AVG, W, SV.

🚨 Today's Streaming Board

150 of 200 GS · should be 169 · 19 behindBehind pace — stream aggressively

050 left · ~12.1/wk to cap · proj 178200

⏳ BP's post is late — Verdict pill is running on our score + Pitcher List for now (BP joins the top-2 once it posts).

Your starters + top FA streamers

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Sandy Alcantara	@ WSH	AUTO START	—	5.7	#3	Nationals lineup is an ideal opponent.
Blake Snell	@ DET	AUTO START	—	8.1	#1	Elite ace, just roll him out.
Cristian Javier	@ NYM	DART	—	—	#14	Whiffs present, cutter MIA, results still elusive.
Jake Bennett	@ NYY	DART	—	5.3	#18	Strikeouts and command both declining.
Brayan Bello	@ NYY	DARTopener	—	—	#15	Follows opener, limited volume but Win upside.
Walker Buehler	@ TB	SIT	—	5.2	#23	Recent improvement noted but trust still withheld.
Keider Montero	vs LAD	SIT	—	5.3	#28	WHIP issues worsen against Dodgers lineup.
Jack Perkins	vs BAL	SIT⚠ opener	—	4.8	#25	Untrustworthy profile, avoid.
Kyle Leahy	vs PIT	SITleash	—	4.0	#22	Cardinals limiting innings, hard streaming sell.
Mitch Bratt	@ SF	SIT	—	4.3	#27	Oracle Park insufficient to endorse mediocre arm.
Ryan Johnson	vs PHI	SIT	—	3.8	#24	Inconsistent, unguessable upside.
Erick Fedde	@ MIN	SITopener⚠ opener	—	3.3	#29	Possible opener complicates Win path further.

Openers filtered: Bennett Sousa, Daniel Lynch IV, Lake Bachar

Your staff: 3.19 ERA / 1.11 WHIP · GS 150/200 — Behind pace — stream aggressively. Verdict = the best 2 of BP · our score · Pitcher List, averaged (low outlier dropped); before BP posts it's our score + PL. ⚠ = our matchup score dissented — eyeball that one. Tap a MIZ score for the reasoning.

Tomorrow · top 5 FA · Sun 8/30 · BP not out yet, so pill = our score + Pitcher List

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Janson Junk	@ WSH	DART	—	4.8	—	tough WSH lineup, hot recent form
Zebby Matthews	vs CWS	DART	—	4.7	—	tough CWS lineup, hot recent form, hitter park
Zac Thornton	vs HOU	DART	—	4.5	—	average HOU lineup
Mason Adams	@ ATL	DART	—	4.3	—	tough ATL lineup, hitter park
Dustin May	vs TEX	SIT	—	4.1	—	average TEX lineup, shaky recent form, short leash

📼 Streamer Report Card

Does the Streaming Board actually work? Every pick it showed, frozen at pick time and graded off the real box score. Two scoreboards below: first our own calls — the Verdict ladder and MIZ (our matchup score, 0–10) — then the outside lists behind them, BP (RelieverRecon's daily BP Streamers post) and PL (Pitcher List's tier ranking). Grades are recomputed from raw lines on every build — the rubric can change, the history follows.

Last 30d · 343 starts graded over 29 days · GOOD+ 50% · BLOWUP 17% · agg ERA 4.23 · WHIP 1.33 · 4.4 K/start · 371 picks logged, 14 never started, 14 awaiting a box score — not graded

Grade mix · all 343 graded starts

GEM 69 GOOD 104 OK 112 BLOWUP 58

GEM6+ IP, ≤1 ER · or 6+ IP, 8+ K, ≤2 ERGOODquality start (6+ IP, ≤3 ER) · or 5+ IP, ≤2 EROKheld the line without earning GOODBLOWUP5+ ER · or under 4 IP with 4+ ERGOOD+ = GEM + GOOD. A pick whose starter never took the ball grades to nothing and leaves every rate below.

Cohort	n	GOOD+	BLOWUP	ERA
Q1 — Do our own calls work? · Verdict ladder + MIZ bands · live board rows only, nothing backfilled
Verdict · AUTO START	25	72%	12%	3.21
Verdict · START	45	60%	7%	3.45
Verdict · DART	96	47%	16%	4.52
Verdict · SIT	177	47%	21%	4.43
MIZ ≥ 5.0	121	60%	14%	3.68
MIZ 3.5–4.9	121	49%	17%	4.53
MIZ < 3.5	85	40%	21%	4.82
All live board picks	343	50%	17%	4.23
Q1 read — the ladder has not separated: GOOD+ runs 72% · 60% · 47% · 47% down the rungs, and MIZ sorts: GOOD+ falls 60% · 49% · 40% from the top band down.
Q2 — Which outside list earns the weight? · BP and PL graded on their own published lists · mostly rebuilt from git
PL · Auto Start	22	77%	9%	3.09
PL · Probably Start	38	58%	16%	4.14
PL · Questionable Start	89	51%	15%	4.23
PL · Do Not Start	168	49%	21%	4.36
BP · Auto	12	33%	8%	4.53
BP · Likely	51	49%	18%	4.24
All graded picks	343	50%	17%	4.23
Q2 read — against the 50% all-picks baseline, PL's top tiers clear it (77% · 58%) and BP's top tiers are too thin to call (33% · 49% on n=12 · n=51).

Rows are overlapping lenses on the same picks, not a partition — one start can be a PL Auto Start and a Verdict SIT at once, so they never sum to the headline; each group is read against its own baseline row.

⚠ Dissent check — the override is ahead so far — 67% GOOD+ on n=9. Splits are picks the board started over our MIZ sit-call (vs 50% for all live picks).

Calibration — do our numbers mean anything? · full season, 2026-06-29→2026-08-28 · 862 graded picks · MIZ on 327, BP on 230, Verdict on 343

The ladder above asks whether the tiers sort. This asks the harder question: is the number a probability — when the board says 7, do 70% of those starts come back GOOD+? Bins are equal-count and merge until every one clears n=15; the walk-forward rows are scored against a model that only ever saw earlier days.

Score bin	n	mean	GOOD+	95% CI
MIZ score → P(GOOD+) · our matchup score, 0–10 · live rows only · n=327
MIZ 0.5–3.2	65	2.5	38%	28%–51%
MIZ 3.3–3.9	68	3.6	47%	36%–59%
MIZ 4.0–4.8	65	4.4	51%	39%–63%
MIZ 4.9–5.6	67	5.2	52%	40%–64%
MIZ 5.7–8.9	62	6.5	66%	54%–77%
All MIZ-scored picks	327	—	51%	—
BP score → P(GOOD+) · RelieverRecon's published rating · includes git-backfilled rows · n=230
BP 4.6–6.6	48	6.1	35%	23%–50%
BP 6.7–7.3	44	7.0	52%	38%–66%
BP 7.4–7.7	47	7.5	45%	31%–59%
BP 7.8–8.4	47	8.1	47%	33%–61%
BP 8.5–10.0	44	9.1	43%	30%–58%
All BP-scored picks	230	—	44%	—
Verdict tier → P(GOOD+) · the consensus call itself · live rows only
AUTO START	25	—	72%	52%–86%
START	45	—	60%	45%–73%
DART	96	—	47%	37%–57%
SIT	177	—	47%	40%–54%

Out-of-sample	n	value	vs
Walk-forward probability · logistic on MIZ, refit daily on earlier days only · from 2026-08-05 · 23 days
Brier — our probability	263	0.247	lower is better
Brier — flat base rate to date	263	0.256	we win by 0.009
Brier — verdict-tier history	263	0.254	we win by 0.007
Log loss — our probability	263	0.688	lower is better
ECE — our probability	263	0.066	5 equal-count bins
ECE bins · predicted p vs what actually happened
said 32%–48%	54	39%	off by 5%
said 48%–52%	51	43%	off by 7%
said 52%–57%	53	43%	off by 11%
said 57%–61%	52	54%	off by 5%
said 61%–74%	53	60%	off by 5%
Verdict — usable with caveats: ECE 0.066 over n=263 out-of-sample picks (≤0.03 well calibrated · ≤0.07 usable with caveats); edges the flat base rate on Brier (0.247 vs 0.256, a thin margin; log-loss ~coin-flip).

🔥 Today's Hitter Streamers

Top 10 FA bats for today's slate · score = split vs SP hand (35%) + SP softness (35%) + bat quality (15%) + trailing 15 days (10%) + park (5%) · facing an elite arm fades the score hard (feast on weak pitchers).

#	Hitter	Matchup	Why	Legs	Score
1	AUTO STARTDrew GilbertRF · 1% own	vs AZ ×2 · Kelly R / Bratt L	szn .331 xwOBAL15: 0.969 OPS (44 PA)L14 contact +6.0 (.580 xwOBAcon, 26 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)fills OF needbeats 5 of 6 eligible startersDH — likely both ends (×1.27)G1 Kelly .398 allowed · soft SP0.808 OPS vs RHP (248 AB)G2 short side vs LHP — 14% of ABG2 Bratt .317 allowed · avg SP0.163 OPS vs LHP (41 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	84
2	AUTO STARTLars NootbaarLF · 2% own	@ SF ×2 · TBD / TBD	szn .341 xwOBAL15: 0.855 OPS (34 PA)L14 contact +5.5 (.492 xwOBAcon, 27 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)fills OF needbeats 5 of 6 eligible startersDH — likely both ends (×1.21)G1 SP: TBDG2 SP: TBD	L15 bat SP L/R park	74
3	AUTO STARTBlaze Alexander3B · 3% own	@ ATH · Perkins RHP	szn .361 xwOBAusually bats 1st (×1.12)fills OF needbeats 7 of 11 eligible startersPerkins .312 allowed · avg SP0.873 OPS vs RHP (145 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	69
4	AUTO STARTEsmerlyn ValdezRF · 17% own	@ STL · Leahy RHP	szn .336 xwOBAL15: 0.694 OPS (46 PA)L14 contact +5.4 (.490 xwOBAcon, 17 BBE)usually bats 2nd (×1.10)fills OF needbeats 4 of 6 eligible startersLeahy .337 allowed · soft SP0.777 OPS vs RHP (133 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	67
5	STARTRafael Flores Jr.1B · 4% own	@ STL · Leahy RHP	szn .331 xwOBAL15: 0.771 OPS (46 PA)L14 contact +1.6 (.406 xwOBAcon, 23 BBE)usually bats 5thbeats 2 of 4 eligible startersshort side vs RHP — 47% of ABLeahy .337 allowed · soft SP0.866 OPS vs RHP (34 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	67
6	AUTO STARTTristan PetersCF · 22% own	@ MIN · Ober RHP	szn .314 xwOBAL15: 1.362 OPS (51 PA)L14 contact +2.9 (.434 xwOBAcon, 35 BBE)usually bats 8th (×0.93)fills OF needbeats 4 of 6 eligible startersOber .334 allowed · soft SP0.863 OPS vs RHP (317 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	67
7	DEPTHTy France1B · 13% own	@ TB · Martinez RHP	szn .331 xwOBAL15: 0.726 OPS (56 PA)L14 contact -2.8 (.308 xwOBAcon, 30 BBE)usually bats 4th (×1.05)beats 0 of 3 eligible startersMartinez .319 allowed · avg SP0.871 OPS vs RHP (246 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	58
8	DEPTHKyle Karros3B · 3% own	@ ATL · Pérez LHP	szn .338 xwOBAusually bats 5thbeats 0 of 3 eligible startersPérez .324 allowed · avg SP0.797 OPS vs LHP (125 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	56
9	DEPTHSpencer Horwitz1B · 4% own	@ STL · Leahy RHP	szn .320 xwOBAL15: 0.419 OPS (37 PA)L14 contact -2.5 (.314 xwOBAcon, 25 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)beats 0 of 3 eligible startersLeahy .337 allowed · soft SP0.781 OPS vs RHP (257 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	55
10	DEPTHDominic Smith1B · 2% own	vs COL · Feltner RHP	szn .299 xwOBAusually bats 7th (×0.95)beats 0 of 3 eligible startersFeltner .357 allowed · soft SP0.736 OPS vs RHP (226 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	55

Tiers vs YOUR lineup tonight — median starter 64, worst Zach Neto (39). AUTO START = beats the median eligible starter.

TBD starter = neutral SP + split legs until the probable posts (refresh upgrades it). Splits need 30+ AB vs that hand. IL bats are excluded; bats who rarely start against tonight's hand are dropped. Doubleheaders: legs average the ends he plays, and everyday bats get up to a ×1.50 volume boost. Lineup slot scales the score by expected PAs from the bat's usual spot (leadoff ×1.12 … 9-hole ×0.90, modal over the last ~10 played days) — his typical order, not today's card, since that posts after waivers run.

🎯 FA Hitters — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Randy Arozarena

1Lars NootbaarLF · Ari · 2.4%HEATER

90/99 heat on trusted 27-BBE sample; production confirms it; best signal-to-volume combo available.

Heat 90 · 27 BBE · ATC 75 PA · 2 HR · 1 SB · 0.245 · L7 0.3 · 1 HR · sim -0.2 pts

2Mickey Gasper

C · Bos · 7.3% · HEATER

89/99 heat, 23 BBE, elite xwOBAcon 0.618; last-7 production (.546/2HR/4RBI) fully corroborates the contact quality.

Heat 89 · 23 BBE · ATC 10 PA · 0 HR · 0 SB · 0.225 · L7 0.546 · 2 HR · sim -0.2 pts

3Drew Gilbert

RF · SF · 0.8% · HEATER

81/99 heat on 26 BBE trusted sample; 3HR/11RBI in L14 and last-7 production confirm the signal is real.

Heat 81 · 26 BBE · ATC 76 PA · 2 HR · 1 SB · 0.228 · L7 0.263 · 1 HR · sim -0.2 pts

4Colt Keith

1B · Det · 5.2% · HEATER

84/99 heat on 19-BBE trusted sample, elite xwOBAcon 0.497/93.5EV; 0-for-7 BA recency is pure noise to fade.

Heat 84 · 19 BBE · ATC 102 PA · 3 HR · 1 SB · 0.259 · L7 0.0 · 0 HR · sim -0.2 pts

5Andres Chaparro

1B · Wsh · 0.6% · HEATER

82/99 heat on 26 BBE; 3HR in L14 with concurrent production; deep-league value at near-0% rostered.

Heat 82 · 26 BBE · ATC 45 PA · 2 HR · 0 SB · 0.228 · L7 0.267 · 1 HR · sim -0.2 pts

Passed on: Ryan Vilade has a monster 88/99 heat score with gaudy xwOBAcon (0.682) and EV (97.6), but only 16 BBE and just 5 PA last week signal severe PT risk that kills his floor entirely.

💪 Hitter List Rankings

PL Top 150 hitters · your bats + top FAs.

On Hitter List · 17 yours · 9 FAs

Rank	Hitter	MLB	Pos	Chg	AVG	xwOBA	HR	SB	RoS	Chu’s Take
16	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	DH	+3	.245	.368	40	3	127
18	Randy Arozarena	SEA	OF	-	.273	.349	20	20	123
21	Miguel Vargas	CHW	1B/3B	+19	.251	.391	29	13	113	Miguel Vargas has returned to the levels we saw early this summer and that really revs my engine. He’s one of those players who has shown…
36	Yandy Díaz	TB	1B	+3	.302	.355	20	3	123
46	Zach Neto	LAA	SS	+11	.236	.306	22	18	109	Zach Neto has been a monster over the last nine games, with 17 hits, 18 combined runs and RBI (a seven RBI night helps), and seven extra-…
59	Jac Caglianone	KC	1B/OF	+13	.283	.363	23	6	107	Jac Caglianone still hits a lot of grounders, but not quite as many as before (the rolling 15-game rate is a hair below 50%) and the stri…
72	Ty France	SD	1B	+12	.285	.331	18	1	106
77	Royce Lewis	MIN	1B/2B/3B	-15	.234	.315	13	14	103	Royce Lewis is streaky. We just gotta deal with that.
85	Cole Carrigg	COL	SS/OF	-22	.263	.321	6	8	68	The strikeouts have creeped up on Cole Carrigg , up to 32% over his last 11 games (which is, conveniently, exactly 50 plate appearances).…
109	Mickey Gasper	BOS	C	+UR	.275	.359	5	0	94	Mickey Gasper — Fantastic mustache, first of all. Second of all, the batted ball data suggests what’s happening of late is very real, tho…
115	Kaelen Culpepper	MIN	SS	+UR	.333	.332	3	0	91	Kaelen Culpepper — Culpepper puts a lot of balls in play and it’s working out so far. The BABIP Gods can be cruel, though. The 55 point g…
116	Tristan Peters	CHW	OF	+UR	.282	.314	12	7	87	Tristan Peters — Five straight games with a homer is nuts, and it comes out of basically nowhere. His scouting reports and track record a…
119	Rafael Flores Jr.	PIT	C/1B	+UR	.233	.331	6	0	83
135	Henry Bolte	ATH	OF	+UR	.269	.304	6	14	91	Henry Bolte is leading off again and should get some games in Sacramento soon, if you need a streamer.
140	Lawrence Butler	ATH	OF	+UR	.228	.316	12	9	89
145	Tyler Stephenson	CIN	C	-33	.248	.338	13	0	98
146	Ryan Jeffers	MIN	C	-29	.270	.351	10	1	118
148	Andruw Monasterio	BOS	2B/SS	-26	.253	.301	6	4	92
149	Dylan Crews	WSH	OF	-35	.220	.318	10	8	87
150	Luis Rengifo	SD	2B/3B/OF	-24	.242	.303	4	6	87
TS	Bryce Eldridge	SF	1B	—	.254	.354	15	1	99	Bryce Eldridge (1B, SFG) — Power prospects can often take a while to really shine.
TS	Jordan Lawlar	Ari	3B/OF	—	.273	.325	3	4	89	Jordan Lawlar (3B/OF, ARI) — I do not love that he’s sat against two of the three righties the D-Backs have faced, nor the strikeouts. He…
TS	Pedro Ramirez	ChC	2B/3B	—	.285	.305	4	7	91	Pedro Ramirez (2B/3B, CHC) — Hitting well when he plays, which is not very often.
TS	Walker Jenkins	Min	OF	—	.333	.486	0	0	101	Walker Jenkins (OF, MIN) — Jenkins will get the call today after a white-hot month in the triple-A. He’s worth a scoop in most leagues, E…
UR	James Wood	Wsh	OF	—	.265	.419	30	17	129	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Ralphy Velazquez	Cle	1B	—	—	—	—	—	83	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.

🔥 Heat Board

Hottest ACTIVE free-agent bats by contact quality, 8/15–8/28 · Heat = percentile vs all MLB bats over the same window (xwOBAcon 30 · EV 20 · Brl 20 · HH 15 · K 10 · BB 5) · min 15 BBE to qualify (smaller samples live in the HM rail) · IL excluded.

Lars Nootbaar

LF · Ari · 2.4% own · xwOBAcon .492 · EV 93.6 · Brl 18.5% · 27 BBE

▲ .039 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.228	5	22	28	2
L14	.267	2	5	4	1

Mickey Gasper

C · Bos · 7.3% own · xwOBAcon .618 · EV 90.8 · Brl 26.1% · 23 BBE

▲ .142 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.275	5	19	17	0
L14	.417	5	12	6	0

Ryan Vilade

RF · TB · 0.2% own · xwOBAcon .682 · EV 97.6 · Brl 18.8% · 16 BBE

▲ .146 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.263	11	37	25	3
L14	.409	2	2	5	0

Colt Keith

1B · Det · 5.2% own · xwOBAcon .497 · EV 93.5 · Brl 10.5% · 19 BBE

▼ .023 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.263	9	32	46	5
L14	.240	1	1	4	0

Andres Chaparro

1B · Wsh · 0.6% own · xwOBAcon .428 · EV 90.8 · Brl 23.1% · 26 BBE

▲ .067 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.246	9	33	29	0
L14	.313	3	5	8	0

Drew Gilbert

RF · SF · 0.8% own · xwOBAcon .580 · EV 91.9 · Brl 19.2% · 26 BBE

▲ .048 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.242	8	36	40	1
L14	.290	3	11	8	0

Esmerlyn Valdez

RF · Pit · 17.3% own · xwOBAcon .490 · EV 93.0 · Brl 17.6% · 17 BBE

▼ .028 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.244	15	42	36	0
L14	.216	1	1	5	0

Luis Torrens

C · NYM · 0.8% own · xwOBAcon .517 · EV 90.8 · Brl 20.0% · 15 BBE

▲ .059 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.241	8	33	31	1
L14	.300	3	5	3	0

Patrick Bailey

C · Cle · 0.8% own · xwOBAcon .534 · EV 92.5 · Brl 5.9% · 17 BBE

▲ .134 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.199	7	30	24	3
L14	.333	1	7	3	1

Brett Baty

3B · NYM · 2.6% own · xwOBAcon .423 · EV 93.0 · Brl 11.1% · 18 BBE

▲ .073 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.219	8	40	45	5
L14	.292	0	2	3	0

Honorable mention · hottest L7 (8/22–8/28), not yet on the board · tiny samples — peek, don't trust

Drew Cavanaugh

C · SF

.700 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .308 L7

Colton Cowser

CF · Bal

.537 xwOBAcon

11 BBE · .546 L7

Hao-Yu Lee

3B · Det

.490 xwOBAcon

18 BBE · .182 L7

Ezequiel Tovar

SS · Col

.584 xwOBAcon

12 BBE · .375 L7

Nathan Lukes

RF · Tor

.516 xwOBAcon

15 BBE · .412 L7

Brady House

3B · Wsh

.453 xwOBAcon

14 BBE · .167 L7

🎯 FA Pitchers — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Kyle Harrison

1Andrew KittredgeRP · Bal · 1.8%BEST VALUE

Highest roto sim (+1.6), closer role confirmed, saves MIZ's #3 SV rank with clean ratios.

Supp 66 · 18 BBE · ATC 10.0 IP · 1 W · 10 K · 3.87 · 1.21 · 2 SV · Closer · sim +1.6 pts

2Juan Morillo

RP · Ari · 2.8% · CATEGORY FIT

Closer role confirmed, +1.5 sim, elite xwOBAcon suppression protects ERA/WHIP #1 ranks.

Supp 77 · 10 BBE · ATC 10.0 IP · 1 W · 10 K · 3.83 · 1.35 · 1 SV · Closer · sim +1.5 pts

3Calvin Faucher

RP · Mia · 0.8% · UPSIDE

Closer role confirmed, +1.5 sim, 81st-percentile suppression; low sample but role is real.

Supp 81 · 13 BBE · ATC 10.0 IP · 1 W · 11 K · 3.96 · 1.39 · 1 SV · Closer · sim +1.5 pts

4Grayson Rodriguez

SP · LAA · 2.9% · HEATER

87th-percentile suppression on 37 BBE (trusted), +1.0 sim, elite xwOBAcon at 0.235.

Supp 87 · 37 BBE · ATC 24.0 IP · 2 W · 24 K · 4.30 · 1.31 · sim +1.0 pts

5Christian Scott

SP · NYM · 10.9% · FLOOR

82.4 EV-allowed leads all SPs here; 3.94 ATC ERA protects ratio leads with volume.

Supp 57 · 44 BBE · ATC 26.0 IP · 1 W · 27 K · 3.94 · 1.22 · sim +0.7 pts

Passed on: AJ Smith-Shawver had the highest SP sim (+1.2) and a genuine suppression signal but only 1 projected GS remaining makes him near-worthless volume-wise under the cap context.

⚾ Pitcher List Rankings

PL Top 100 SP · your arms + top FAs.

On Pitcher List · 6 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Pitcher	MLB	Chg	ERA	xERA	K/9	RoS	Pollack’s Take
1	Jacob Misiorowski	MIL	-	1.73	2.00	13.2	3.32	Like a base set Charizard, Misiorowski’s not gonna stop being dope.
9	Blake Snell	LAD	+7	2.57	2.29	11.1	3.42	#HotSnellSummer is in full swing.
10	Dylan Cease	TOR	-1	2.33	2.65	13.0	3.45	Like a perfect burger without the condiments to hit all your macros, Cease gives you everything except for a stable WHIP due to his infla…
20	Kyle Harrison	MIL	+8	2.79	3.24	11.1	4.12	With a dominant outing, he muted our concerns, but Harrison’s still displaying decreased velocity and not commanding as well as he did in…
22	Eury Pérez	MIA	-4	3.44	3.72	9.8	3.87	Pérez has the stuff to be an ace, but there’s polishing to do in the command and game plan departments to unlock his full potential.
30	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	-4	3.38	3.64	6.7	4.19	Baseball’s premier innings eater hasn’t ruined his appetite.
38	Jacob Lopez	ATH	+6	4.82	3.41	8.7	4.63	It’s the 2025 hot streak all over again. Enjoy the ride, ya’ll!
39	Dustin May	MIL	-	4.56	4.20	8.5	4.09	May got Singled Out in a disastrous performance, but his stuff is still dope, and his new situation is ideal. Higher win chance, great de…
40	Walbert Ureña	LAA	-	2.94	3.44	8.7	4.54	Armed with upper-90s heaters and one of the best changeups in baseball, Ureña has hit few speed bumps. If that developing sweeper becomes…
43	Andrew Painter	PHI	+UR	5.95	4.59	7.8	4.78	From off The List to inside the Top 50, Painter has stolen our hearts with an improved heater (97+ mph with 17-18″ iVB) and emphasis on r…
45	Peter Lambert	HOU	-4	3.66	3.54	8.8	4.58	Lambert’s stumble last time was a product of being Singled Out . He’s been reliable all year, but we should be recognizing that Holly is …
46	Jared Jones	PIT	-8	4.83	3.80	10.3	3.99	The stuff is top-tier, but he’s still shaking off the Tommy John surgery rust with his command and the tight leash the Pirates have on hi…
54	Joey Cantillo	CLE	-8	3.70	3.97	9.6	4.05	Efficiency is a problem, but Cantillo is doing everything we want. More curveballs, faster fastballs, and supportive cutters. Throw more …
56	Shane Bieber	TOR	+14	4.37	5.94	7.1	4.19	Bieber is back in business. His heater looked awesome in The Trop, and his offspeed pitches are being the CSW monsters they need to be to…
57	Tyler Mahle	ATL	-	4.41	4.28	8.5	4.10	Mahle’s command and velocity have been stellar since returning from the IL in late June. He’s got an even better situation pitching in At…
58	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	-	3.51	3.75	6.2	4.60	Despite what the line suggests, Pfaadt’s last start wasn’t an end to his Vargas Rule . It was a textbook Careful, Icarus with a three-run…

🔒 Closer Chart

Save targets · roles + regression flags.

BLUEEntrenched closer (highest leverage)GREENNext man up / committee pieceYELLOWSetup, 8th-inning leverageORANGESpeculative / lower priorityMAGENTAHigh-upside future / multi-inning

	Pitcher	Tm	Role	SV	SVHD	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K/9	Rtg / Own
Yours on the chart
—	Andrés Muñoz	Seattle Mariners	CL	24	24	48.3	4.28	1.22	3.31	14.3	5.0 · —
—	Louis Varland	Toronto Blue Jays	CL	30	35	67.7	1.20	0.99	2.20 ↑	11.0	5.0 · —
—	Justin Martinez	Arizona Diamondbacks	FU	0	0	3.0	0.00	1.00	3.54 ↑	6.0	1.0 · —
Top 5 FA closers (by team rating)
—	Calvin Faucher	Miami Marlins	CL	2	16	56.3	3.99	1.37	3.72	10.1	3.5 · 1%
	Andrew Kittredge	Baltimore Orioles	CL	7	16	41.3	3.27	1.35	3.88	7.6	3.0 · 2%
	Juan Morillo	Arizona Diamondbacks	CL	2	19	53.3	2.19	1.01	2.26	10.5	1.0 · 3%
	Carson Seymour	San Francisco Giants	CL	1	5	18.3	4.91	1.53	6.45 ↑	6.9	1.0 · 0%
	Orlando Ribalta	Washington Nationals	CL	2	14	41.0	3.95	1.24	3.94	8.3	1.0 · 0%

ERA cell: green <3.00 · red >4.50. xERA arrow: ↓ ERA likely to fall (buy) · ↑ ERA likely to rise (sell). Triggers when |xERA−ERA| ≥ 1.00.

✂️ Cut List

Drop priority · value, form, pedigree, role.

48	Royce Lewis 3B · Min low TV (18) sim cost ~0	TV 18 Rd 13
40	Justin Martinez RP · Ari low TV (16); BUT fresh-callup upside; BUT strong RoS (3.46 ERA) sim cost ~0	TV 16 UFDA
24	Ryan Jeffers C · Min mid TV (36); BUT top-tier keeper; BUT young breakout signal sim cost ~0	TV 36 UFDA
15	Kyle Harrison SP · Mil mid TV (60); UFDA — easy to drop; BUT top-tier keeper sim cost ~0	TV 60 UFDA
12	Sandy Alcantara SP · Mia BUT solid keeper sim cost ~0	TV 72 Rd 14

Higher score = drop sooner — top 5 by score, and only 8+ reaches the board, so the number has no ceiling and is only comparable within this list. The sim line is a roto-sim marginal (cut vs. keep on one shared set of draws), not a measured cost. Pedigree + named closers shielded.

🌱 Stash List

PL's top prospects · grab them cheap.

Hitters

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 23: Top 10 Hitting Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + PSS + PFV + age + 40-man + path.

23 available — 2 yours

W. Jenkins YOURS

OF · MIN · AAA · 21 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

14·17·.323

R. Velazquez YOURS

1B/C · CLE · AA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

28·2·.292

H. Mendez

OF · MIN · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

12·4·.278

J. Tibbs III

OF · LAD · AAA · 23 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

27·8·.297

S. Thompson

OF · COL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

12·16·.301

S. Walcott

3B/SS · TEX · AA · 23 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

5·8·.306

M. Anderson

2B · DET · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

16·5·.310

Y. Morales

3B · WSN · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

24·6·.290

C. Cannarella

OF · MIA · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

13·20·.336

J. Melton

OF · TB · AAA · 25 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

7·26·.298

B. Davidson

OF · SFG · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

September

Szn

25·19·.281

L. Montes

OF · SEA · AAA · 21 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

37·8·.246

S. King

SS/2B/3B · WSN · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

18·14·.318

Z. Hope

OF · DET · AA · 21 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

26·23·.278

R. Ward

LF · LAD · AAA · 28 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

20·7·.251

P. Harber

3B · SFG · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

'27

Szn

17·4·.287

J. Made

SS · MIL · AA · 19 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

13·35·.273

C. Ingle

C · CLE · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

18·2·.290

J. Long

1B · CHC · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

13·3·.278

K. Alderman

OF · MIA · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

18·10·.261

E. Salas

C · SDP · AAA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September

Szn

10·16·.295

M. Arroyo

SS · SEA · AAA · 21 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

18·16·.279

D. Crisantes

2B/3B · ARI · AAA · 21 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

9·0·.289

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

Pitchers

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 22: Top 10 Pitching Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + L3 quality + FV + age + 40-man + path.

27 available

L. Perales

SP · WSN · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

100K·3.94

H. Smith

SP · CHW · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

August 1st

Szn

103K·3.76

C. Seymour

SP · SFG · AAA · 27 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

84K·4.01

R. Snelling

SP · MIA · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

46K·2.38

J. Tong

SP · NYM · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

125K·4.75

T. Johnson

SP · TBR · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

82K·2.85

T. Bremner

SP · LAA · AA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

'26

Szn

84K·4.26

M. Bratt

SP · ARI · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

79K·3.33

R. Sloan

SP · SEA · AA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

100

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

111K·3.63

D. Davalillo

SP · TEX · AAA · 24 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

91K·5.01

J. Ritchie

SP · ATL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

114K·3.83

A. Kelly

SP · PIT · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

71K·4.55

C. Crow

SP · MIL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

97K·3.82

M. Forret

SP · BAL · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

115K·3.85

B. Garrett

SP · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

June 1st

Szn

101K·3.68

M. Wilkinson

SP · SFG · AAA · 23 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

98K·3.57

T. McDougal

SP · CHW · AAA · 23 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

47K·4.75

G. Wood

P · PHI · AA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

'26

Szn

124K·4.40

B. Mautz

SP · STL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

91K·3.86

C. Dana

SP · LAA · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

72K·5.90

M. Ullola

SP · HOU · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

94K·4.41

O. Murphy

SP · ATL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

119K·3.95

J. Wenninger

SP · NYM · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

110K·4.23

T. Gibson

SP · BAL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

98K·5.13

B. Hopkins

SP · TBR · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

112K·5.46

K. Curtis

SP · PIT · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

113K·4.48

L. Braun

SP · ATL · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

101K·3.72

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

🔭 10 not a 2026 factor — Liam Doyle · Anthony Eyanson · Jamie Arnold · Joseph Dzierwa · Jaxon Wiggins · Christian Zazueta · Jurrangelo Cijntje · Tyson Hardin · Jonathan Santucci · Karson Milbrandt

💼 Trades

Buy-low targets · league trade history.

Top Buy-Lows

Rebound candidates · suggested offers.

Hitters

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Trent Grisham CF · NYY · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.3σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.216 / xBA 0.247 · xwOBA 0.341	32%	114 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Royce Lewis 3B + Bryce Eldridge 1B · two-piece package (TV 42 vs target 37)
📈 BUY-LOW	JJ Bleday CF · Cin · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.3σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.219 / xBA 0.248 · xwOBA 0.353	24%	104 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 24 vs target 27)
📈 BUY-LOW	Ronald Acuna Jr. RF · Atl · GoOs · My Best Guys +1.2σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.235 / xBA 0.255 · xwOBA 0.362	98%	136 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Blake Snell SP + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 80 vs target 86)
📈 BUY-LOW	Heriberto Hernandez LF · Mia · FRAN · francisw789 +1.1σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.235 / xBA 0.251 · xwOBA 0.353	4%	99 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Royce Lewis 3B · comparable value (TV 17 vs target 23)
↑ mild buy	Taylor Ward LF · Sea · GoOs · My Best Guys +0.6σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.230 / xBA 0.243 · xwOBA 0.338	61%	118 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Jac Caglianone RF + +$4 FAAB · comparable value (TV 52 vs target 60)
↑ mild buy	Brandon Nimmo LF · Tex · DORN · Lambertmt48 +0.6σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.258 / xBA 0.278 · xwOBA 0.354	67%	119 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Royce Lewis 3B + Bryce Eldridge 1B · two-piece package (TV 42 vs target 45)
↑ mild buy	Kyle Stowers LF · Mia · KNIG · TKHOO +0.7σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.242 / xBA 0.234 · xwOBA 0.332	28%	111 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 24 vs target 27)
↑ mild buy	Dominic Canzone RF · Sea · GARR · jregarris +0.6σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.259 / xBA 0.271 · xwOBA 0.358	12%	114 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Henry Bolte RF + Bryce Eldridge 1B + +$3 FAAB · two-piece package (TV 28 vs target 34)
📈 BUY-LOW	Mike Trout OF · LAA · KNIG · TKHOO +1.4σ buy-low · OF — fits a need · BA 0.241 / xBA 0.253 · xwOBA 0.381	94%	127 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Sandy Alcantara SP · comparable value (TV 72 vs target 77)
📈 BUY-LOW	Cal Raleigh C · Sea · KNIG · TKHOO +1.9σ buy-low · C — modest fit · BA 0.165 / xBA 0.180 · xwOBA 0.305	82%	119 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Yandy Diaz 1B + +$4 FAAB · comparable value (TV 73 vs target 81)

Pitchers

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Kodai Senga SP · NYM · KRTZ · FratSkins +1.5σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 7.64 vs xERA 4.84	10%	3.96 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Ralphy Velazquez 1B · comparable value (TV 2 vs target 5)
↑ mild buy	Freddy Peralta SP · TB · KNIG · TKHOO +0.8σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 5.11 vs xERA 3.97	69%	4.01 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Royce Lewis 3B + Bryce Eldridge 1B · two-piece package (TV 42 vs target 43)
↑ mild buy	Bryce Miller SP · Sea · BLOB · crenshawh19 +0.7σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.12 vs xERA 3.17	35%	4.10 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Jac Caglianone RF · comparable value (TV 52 vs target 48)

League History

Completed trades · frozen grade at the deal + live grade now.

Side	Sent	At deal	Now	Trend
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Andy Pages	A- +7	A+ +44	▲ up
Camp MVP	Pete Crow-Armstrong	C -7	F -44	▼ down
Team Knighton ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Team Knighton	Matthew Boyd	F -22	F -22
Camp MVP	Kenley Jansen	A+ +22	A+ +22
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Worst2First 2026-08-10
Miz-waukee’s Best	Charlie Condon, Payton Tolle	A+ +50	A+ +35	▼ down
Worst2First	Dylan Cease	F -50	F -35	▲ up
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Dorn and Associates LLC 2026-08-05
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Travis Bazzana, George Lombard Jr., Nolan McLean	A+ +144	A+ +107	▼ down
Dorn and Associates LLC	Jackson Chourio, Jhoan Duran, Brice Turang, David Bednar	F -144	F -107	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-07-31
Miz-waukee’s Best	Samuel Basallo, Kade Anderson	A- +8	A +9
Ramirez Against the Machine	Blake Snell	C -8	D -9
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Team Knighton 2026-07-23
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Jo Adell, Jacob deGrom	F -49	F -63	▼ down
Team Knighton	Trea Turner	A+ +49	A+ +63	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine ⇄ Miz-waukee’s Best 2026-07-19
Ramirez Against the Machine	Sandy Alcantara	F -42	F -68	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best	Josh Jung	A+ +42	A+ +68	▲ up
I need Buck Showalter ⇄ Hit the Damn Ball You Bums 2026-06-19
I need Buck Showalter	Nasim Nunez	A+ +28	B +1	▼ down
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Justin Wrobleski	F -28	B -1	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ The Boys of Summer 2026-06-12
Miz-waukee’s Best	Chandler Simpson	A +10	A- +7	▼ down
The Boys of Summer	$30 FAAB	D -10	C -7	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-05-01
Miz-waukee’s Best	Kenley Jansen	—	A- +6
Camp MVP	$30 FAAB	A- +3	C -6	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-04-22
Miz-waukee’s Best	Nathan Eovaldi, $70 FAAB	—	F -15
Ramirez Against the Machine	Jac Caglianone	A+ +60	A+ +15	▼ down

🔻 Sell-High — My Roster

Surface line outrunning the underlying skill — trade-value peaks. σ = his surface-stat z-score minus his Statcast-skill z-score, both against the league reference for his side — bigger σ = further ahead of the skill. Pair with Buy-Low Targets.

Verdict	Player	Own	Surface vs expected	Contact	2027 keeper
↓ SHOP	Yandy Diaz 1B · TB 0.62σ sell-high · 1B · BA 0.302 / xBA 0.287 · xwOBA 0.355 — test the market, don't force it	93%	BA 0.302 / xBA 0.287 +.015 wOBA 0.363 / xwOBA 0.355 +.008	HH 47.5% · Brl/PA 5.2%	7th · +1 rd vs mkt
↓ SHOP	Henry Bolte RF · Oak 0.62σ sell-high · RF · BA 0.269 / xBA 0.240 · xwOBA 0.304 — test the market, don't force it	4%	BA 0.269 / xBA 0.240 +.029 wOBA 0.321 / xwOBA 0.304 +.017	HH 47.9% · Brl/PA 4.3%	25th · +2 rds vs mkt
HOLD — KEEPER PRICE	Louis Varland RP · Tor 0.40σ sell-high · RP · ERA 1.20 vs xERA 2.20 — only move for keeper-grade return	86%	ERA 1.20 / xERA 2.20 -1.00	Brl 4.3% allowed	22nd · +16 rds vs mkt

👥 Your Roster

Your roster · news + buy/sell signals.

News (last 24h)

Player news · last 24h.

Walker Jenkins Fantasy baseball news and notes: Buxton ailing, Strider's season over and more news for Saturday
Sat 08-29 12:59 PM
All of the important fantasy spin and actionable takeaways resulting from the latest baseball news.
Jordan Lawlar Fantasy baseball lineup advice for Saturday: Kade Anderson tops streaming candidates
Sat 08-29 10:58 AM
Everything you need to know to set your fantasy baseball lineups for Saturday's MLB action.
Yandy Diaz Diaz, Mullins homers power AL-leading Rays to a 9-4 win over the Padres for 80th victory
Sat 08-29 02:12 AM
— Yandy Diaz and Cedric Mullins each homered and drove in two runs and the AL-leading Tampa Bay Rays scored five runs in the fourth inning on the way to a 9-4 victory over the San Diego Padres on Friday night.
Dylan Cease Dylan Cease strikes out 8 in six innings, Blue Jays hit 3 homers to beat Mariners 8-1
Sat 08-29 02:04 AM
— Dylan Cease struck out eight in six innings, George Springer was 4 for 4 with a home run, and the Toronto Blue Jays beat the Seattle Mariners 8-1 on Friday night.
Pedro Ramirez Pops three-run home run Friday
Sat 08-29 12:00 AM
Ramirez went 1-for-4 with a three-run home run in Friday's 10-8 loss to the Reds.

Leverage Buys/Sells

Buy/sell windows · surface vs. underlying.

Hitters

Player	Pos	MLB	BA	xBA	wOBA	xwOBA	Brl%	Own%	Signal
James Wood IL10	LF	Wsh	0.265	0.275	0.395	0.419	100.0	99.1	📈 BUY-LOW
Miguel Vargas	3B	ChW	0.251	0.269	0.370	0.391	93.0	95.2	📈 BUY-LOW
Kyle Schwarber	DH	Phi	0.245	0.239	0.380	0.368	98.0	99.5	📈 BUY-LOW
Bryce Eldridge	1B	SF	0.254	0.254	0.348	0.354	79.0	8.4	↑ mild buy
Jac Caglianone	RF	KC	0.283	0.284	0.359	0.363	93.0	58.7	fair
Zach Neto	SS	LAA	0.236	0.208	0.328	0.306	76.0	60.6	fair
Randy Arozarena	LF	Sea	0.273	0.261	0.367	0.349	50.0	93.8	fair
Cole Carrigg	CF	Col	0.263	0.252	0.342	0.321	—	13.8	fair
Ryan Jeffers	C	Min	0.270	0.251	0.366	0.351	73.0	40.3	fair
Henry Bolte	RF	Oak	0.269	0.240	0.321	0.304	44.0	4.2	↓ mild fade
Yandy Diaz	1B	TB	0.302	0.287	0.363	0.355	42.0	92.6	↓ mild fade
Kaelen Culpepper	SS	Min	0.333	0.258	0.392	0.332	—	6.0	fair
Royce Lewis	3B	Min	0.234	0.243	0.307	0.315	73.0	16.6	↑ mild buy
Walker Jenkins	CF	Min	0.333	0.305	0.397	0.486	50.0	9.6	—
Jordan Lawlar	3B	Ari	0.273	0.266	0.346	0.325	—	3.2	fair
Ralphy Velazquez	1B	Cle	—	—	—	—	—	0.8	—
Pedro Ramirez	3B	ChC	0.285	0.267	0.339	0.305	—	2.3	fair

Pitchers

Pitcher	Pos	MLB	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K-BB%	xwOBA-a	Brl%-a	Own%	Signal
Blake Snell	SP	LAD	21.0	2.57	1.05	2.29	19.5	0.236	0.0	89.1	↑ mild buy
Andres Munoz	RP	Sea	48.3	4.28	1.22	3.31	27.9	0.283	9.4	80.2	↑ mild buy
Joe Ryan IL15	SP	Min	125.7	4.08	1.15	3.49	21.2	0.290	10.5	90.0	fair
Jacob Misiorowski	SP	Mil	151.0	1.73	0.75	2.00	32.7	0.220	3.6	99.6	fair
Dylan Cease	SP	Tor	150.3	2.33	1.05	2.65	25.3	0.254	5.1	99.3	fair
Sandy Alcantara	SP	Mia	183.7	3.38	1.18	3.64	11.6	0.296	5.3	91.9	fair
Eury Perez	SP	Mia	130.7	3.44	1.13	3.72	16.2	0.299	9.3	81.8	fair
Kyle Harrison	SP	Mil	103.3	2.79	1.12	3.24	23.6	0.280	6.8	77.6	fair
Louis Varland	RP	Tor	67.7	1.20	0.99	2.20	24.6	0.231	4.3	86.4	↓ mild fade
Justin Martinez	RP	Ari	3.0	0.00	1.00	3.54	0.0	0.292	0.0	1.8	—

📰 MLB News — Top Fantasy Stories

🔒 Keepers — 2027 Slate

Peter's model (additive): rounds-saved (cost arbitrage spine) + current skill + career-grade pedigree + sample stability + Statcast over/under-performance trend, with age-decline (33+), closer/RP, and top-30 talent adjustments. Heavy on bargain-hunting.
Claude's model (multiplicative dynasty index): EFV(2027) = (3 + skill + upside) × age_mult × pos_mult; score = EFV − cost_replacement − mookie-lock. Compounds age curve and position scarcity.
Sorted by consensus rank (average of both models). MLB-inactive players surfaced in 🚑 Return Watch below.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict	Notes
1.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	21st	#1 (+24.4)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51	UFDA-G FV 55
2.0	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	25th	#2 (+23.6)	#2 (+19.8)	S · $20	UFDA
4.0	Eury Perez	SP · 23yo	20th	#3 (+18.5)	#5 (+15.2)	A · $15	UFDA-G
4.0	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	22nd	#4 (+18.3)	#4 (+17.0)	A · $17
5.0	Dylan Cease	SP · 30yo	4th	#7 (+13.0)	#3 (+17.5)	A · $17
6.0	Jac Caglianone	RF · 22yo	21st	#5 (+16.5)	#7 (+13.2)	A · $13	UFDA-G FV 55
6.0	Bryce Eldridge	1B · 20yo	25th	#6 (+16.1)	#6 (+13.7)	A · $14	UFDA FV 55
8.5	Cole Carrigg	CF · 22yo	25th	#8 (+12.2)	— (+5.5)	B · $6	UFDA FV 40
8.5	Zach Neto	SS · 25yo	10th	— (+11.5)	#8 (+10.3)	A · $10

NEW UFDA cap: Peter 3/3 · Claude 2/3 · BOTH = top 8 in both models. Peter only = his model values cost surplus more; Claude only = mine values projection / position scarcity more.

🚑 Return watch — would be keeper-eligible if they get MLB action this year. Rank shown is hypothetical (where they'd slot if eligible).

Player	Pos · Age	Cost	Peter (if elig.)	Claude (if elig.)
Walker Jenkins	CF · 20yo	25th	#13 (+6.0)	#10 (+4.4)
Ralphy Velazquez	1B · 19yo	25th	#14 (-2.0)	#11 (+1.4)

Updated Sat Aug 29 · 11:35 AM ET

🌍 League-Wide Top Keepers

Top 10 keepers · all 12 teams · both models. Yours in green.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	Team	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict
1.5	Jesus Luzardo	SP · 28yo	KNIG	21st	#1 (+28.7)	#2 (+42.1)	S · $42
3.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	MIZ	21st	#5 (+24.4)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51
3.5	Jordan Walker	RF · 24yo	GARR	25th	#2 (+27.5)	#5 (+38.7)	S · $39
3.5	Bryan Baker	RP · 31yo	DORN	25th	#3 (+25.2)	#4 (+38.7)	S · $39
7.0	Cam Schlittler	SP · 24yo	KRTZ	19th	— (+19.5)	#3 (+40.8)	S · $41
7.5	Payton Tolle	SP · 22yo	FRST	25th	#4 (+25.0)	— (+21.2)	S · $21
7.5	Nolan McLean	SP · 23yo	DORN	20th	#9 (+22.4)	#6 (+32.7)	S · $33
8.0	Ben Rice	1B · 27yo	DORN	20th	#7 (+23.3)	#9 (+24.0)	S · $24
8.5	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	MIZ	25th	#6 (+23.6)	— (+19.8)	S · $20
8.5	Foster Griffin	SP · 30yo	GoOs	25th	#10 (+21.8)	#7 (+29.9)	S · $30
9.5	Jose Soriano	SP · 27yo	BLOB	25th	#8 (+22.5)	— (+19.8)	S · $20
9.5	Drew Rasmussen	SP · 30yo	THAR	8th	— (+13.6)	#8 (+26.0)	S · $26
10.5	Gavin Williams	SP · 26yo	THAR	11th	— (+12.0)	#10 (+23.6)	S · $24

Updated Sat Aug 29 · 11:35 AM ET

🏚️ Keeper Cupboards

Every team's six best keepers · shade = dual-model consensus value. Cupboard score weights the top four heavily (the slots that get kept), keepers 5–8 taper. 100 = league's best cupboard.

Team	K1	K2	K3	K4	K5	K6	Cupboard
1MIZ	MisiorowskiR21	VargasR25	PerezR20	VarlandR22	CeaseR4	CaglianoneR21	100
2DORN	BakerR25	RiceR20	McLeanR20	PerdomoR21	WarrenR25	EdmanR25	97
3KNIG	LuzardoR21	AbreuR15	deGromR13	MartinezR25	RodriguezR25	DuranR25	87
4GARR	WalkerR25	MessickR18	CanzoneR25	HancockR25	GrayR7	BuschR11	81
5GoOs	GriffinR25	BradleyR25	WachaR25	BurlesonR9	BaldwinR14	RafaelaR8	79
6KRTZ	SchlittlerR19	BurkeR25	StewartR10	McGonigleR17	IIR5	WebbR25	75
7FRAN	CavalliR21	LatzR25	BradishR21	BurnsR5	AntonacciR25	McClanahanR17	72
8THAR	RasmussenR8	O'BrienR17	WilliamsR11	GonzalesR25	LeeR25	MizeR19	69
9BLOB	SorianoR25	LopezR20	ScottR25	SuarezR12	ArandaR14	BurgerR19	65
10FRST	TolleR25	RouppR25	WheelerR8	ElderR25	SkubalR1	DurbinR17	64
11PEYT ▼ thin	SanchezR9	HendersonR25	WooR8	CameronR18	WetherholtR13	NolaR16	59
12RAGE ▼ thin	CamineroR5	BledayR25	LeeR21	BibeeR14	JumpR25	ImanagaR9	48

The bottom two rows are your trade marks — thin cupboards pay up for keepable pieces.

data: snap 4h · BP 4d · PL 4d · HL 28h · PSS 1h · BR 0h · FG 2h · proj 2h · closer 0h · oyster 23h · AAA-sc 13h · cookie ok