Miz-waukee’s Best — The Brandon League

Last updated Saturday, September 12 · 01:04 PM ET

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Any player in the league universe · tap a result for the card.

☕ Morning Briefing

🏆 MIZ sits at 1st with 105.0 roto points, 16.0 clear of Phil Swift's Flex Seal at #2 — though Flex Seal has been the hottest team in the league, surging +11.5 pts over the last 8 days, so don't sleep on the gap tightening. Watch your SB category: THAR is only 3 behind you. And you're within 0.000 AVG of picking up a point on GoOs — razor-thin, but free roto.

⚾ On your end, Blake Snell was the story yesterday: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K, W against the Marlins — exactly the outing MIZ needs from its ace to hold ratios and pile up counting stats.

🌱 Two stash-worthy lines to track: your own James Tibbs III (RI 93, FA, on your stash board) went 2-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB at AAA vs the Sugar Land Space Cowboys; separately, Sterlin Thompson (RI 87, FA) added 2-for-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI at AAA @ Reno. Also worth flagging in small-sample territory: Victor Mesa Jr. (L7: 82/99 contact heat, 0.498 xwOBAcon, 18 BBE) and Kyle Teel (L7: 80/99, 0.67 xwOBAcon, 8 BBE) have both flipped the contact-quality switch — neither is on the Heat Board yet given sample size, but the underlying signals are real.

📰 The biggest external headline is Shohei Ohtani landing on the 15-day IL with right biceps inflammation — owned by FRAN, so direct roster impact is nil for MIZ, but it's a significant blow to a Dodgers club otherwise playing its best ball. On the roto-relevant side, Junior Caminero hit his AL-leading 40th homer in Tampa's playoff-clinching win — he's the third-most active HR bat in the majors, trailing only your own Kyle Schwarber (44) and Pete Crow-Armstrong (41), a reminder that Schwarber's counting-stat lead is a genuine category asset. Emmanuel Rodriguez was recalled by Minnesota (available FA) and could be worth a look if you need outfield SB help to defend that thin SB margin.

ELIGIBILITYK. Schwarber 1B 8/10

Your standing

1stof 12

105.0 roto pts +16.0 clear of 2nd

-0.5 pts vs last update

Top Gaps

W (7.0) SB (8.0)

categories below mid-pack

Score change since last update

AVG -1.0SB +0.5W +0.5SV -0.5

🎯 Category Pressure

Category ranks vs. the league.

Rank →

Δ to #1

987

1065

🥇

286

312

🥇

RBI

925

963

🥇

147

150

153

202

+52

AVG

.254

.256

.260

+0.004

1243

1257

1403

+146

+14

ERA

3.50

3.40

🥇

WHIP

1.17

1.15

🥇

📅 Yesterday's MIZ Box Scores (2026-09-11)

Loading box scores…

🏥 IL Rehab Tracker

IL players · rehab game logs.

On the IL, no rehab games yet: Spencer Schwellenbach (IL60 · watch).

📊 League Activity (last 24h)

All adds, drops, and trades across the 12 teams.

Team	Move
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	+ Walbert Urena
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	+ Clay Holmes \| − Jeffrey Springs

🏆 League Standings

Current roto points · 10,000-sim projected finish. FAAB = acquisition budget remaining.

100.0% to win the league · proj finish 1.0 · 104.5 roto pts

#	Team	Pts	FAAB	Win%	Proj Pts	Range	Proj Rk
1	MIZ Miz-waukee’s Best	105.0	$0	100.0%	104.5	102–106	1.0
2	PEYT Phil Swift's Flex Seal	89.0	$25	0.0%	88.5	85–92	2.1
3	KRTZ Photogenic Nick Kurtz	83.0	$16	0.0%	84.2	81–87	3.1
4	FRAN Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	82.0	$35	0.0%	82.9	80–86	3.6
5	BLOB Camp MVP	68.5	$168	0.0%	68.3	66–71	5.0
6	GoOs I need Buck Showalter	64.5	$170	0.0%	64.5	61–68	6.0
7	KNIG Team Knighton	60.0	$137	0.0%	58.3	55–62	7.5
8	THAR Phil Mickeltits	59.5	$176	0.0%	59.3	56–63	7.2
9	DORN Dorn and Associates LLC	44.0	$89	0.0%	44.1	42–46	10.3
10	GARR The Boys of Summer	44.0	$155	0.0%	46.7	44–49	9.2
11	FRST Worst2First	43.0	$154	0.0%	44.5	42–47	10.1
12	RAGE Ramirez Against the Machine	37.5	$163	0.0%	34.2	32–36	12.0

10,000 sims · fixed seed · noise CV talent 0.12 / idio 0.06 / team-cat 0.08 · assumes ATC rest-of-season rates

Your categories · projected roto points

R 12.0HR 12.0RBI 12.0SB 7.8AVG 9.9W 6.9SV 9.0K 11.0ERA 12.0WHIP 11.9

Winnable — push here: SB, AVG, W, SV.

🚨 Today's Streaming Board

165 of 200 GS · should be 184 · 19 behindBehind pace — stream aggressively

035 left · ~16.3/wk to cap · proj 180200

⏳ BP's post is late — Verdict pill is running on our score + Pitcher List for now (BP joins the top-2 once it posts).

Top FA streamers today

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Brandon Pfaadt	vs TEX	START	—	5.6	#11	Elite command this year; late-inning implosions remain concern.
Peter Lambert	@ TB	START	—	4.6	#7	Steady, reliable streamer all season long.
Cesar Perdomo	vs SD	DART	—	8.0	#20	Intriguing changeup/heater mix; one-start sample too small.
Andrew Alvarez	vs LAA	DART	—	5.8	#15	Improved efficiency but sub-5-inning floor persists.
Connor Prielipp	vs CLE	DART	—	6.2	#17	Upside real; consistency the unresolved question.
Andrew Sears	vs COL	DART⚠ opener	—	6.8	#21	Coors boost noted; can't go deep efficiently yet.
Zac Thornton	@ NYY	SIT	—	3.2	#19	Soft-contact specialist; Yankees draw pushes toward avoid.
Tanner Gordon	@ DET	SIT⚠ opener	—	5.1	#29	Hard pass; no case made to start.
Kyle Leahy	vs CWS	SIT	—	3.1	—	average CWS lineup, short leash, shaky recent form
Tyler Phillips	vs LAD	SIT	—	4.4	#27	Mildly interesting arm wrecked by Dodgers matchup.

Openers filtered: Spencer Miles, Daniel Espino, Sean Newcomb

Your staff: 3.40 ERA / 1.15 WHIP · GS 165/200 — Behind pace — stream aggressively. Verdict = the best 2 of BP · our score · Pitcher List, averaged (low outlier dropped); before BP posts it's our score + PL. ⚠ = our matchup score dissented — eyeball that one. Tap a MIZ score for the reasoning.

Tomorrow · 2 of yours + top 5 FA · Sun 9/13 · BP not out yet, so pill = our score + Pitcher List

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Dylan Cease	vs BAL	START	—	6.9	#8	Velocity down two ticks; results deteriorating with it.
Eury Pérez	vs LAD	SIT	—	2.6	#21	Three straight rough outings; now faces Dodgers.
Jacob Lopez	vs SEA	START	—	6.5	#10	Low-whiff worry, but seventh-inning meltdown was fluky.
Andrew Painter	@ ATL	DART	—	4.5	#11	Velo down, but offspeed arsenal looking sharp.
Christian Scott	@ NYY	DART	—	4.9	#18	Judge's IL return stiffens already tough lineup.
Michael McGreevy	vs CWS	SIT	—	2.8	#13	White Sox offense makes this a comfortable stream.
Jackson Jobe	vs COL	SIT	—	2.7	#14	Secondary pitches underperforming; outcome uncertain.

📼 Streamer Report Card

Does the Streaming Board actually work? Every pick it showed, frozen at pick time and graded off the real box score. Two scoreboards below: first our own calls — the Verdict ladder and MIZ (our matchup score, 0–10) — then the outside lists behind them, BP (RelieverRecon's daily BP Streamers post) and PL (Pitcher List's tier ranking). Grades are recomputed from raw lines on every build — the rubric can change, the history follows.

Last 30d · 334 starts graded over 29 days · GOOD+ 44% · BLOWUP 19% · agg ERA 4.56 · WHIP 1.36 · 4.4 K/start · 366 picks logged, 19 never started, 13 awaiting a box score — not graded

Grade mix · all 334 graded starts

GEM 54 GOOD 94 OK 122 BLOWUP 64

GEM6+ IP, ≤1 ER · or 6+ IP, 8+ K, ≤2 ERGOODquality start (6+ IP, ≤3 ER) · or 5+ IP, ≤2 EROKheld the line without earning GOODBLOWUP5+ ER · or under 4 IP with 4+ ERGOOD+ = GEM + GOOD. A pick whose starter never took the ball grades to nothing and leaves every rate below.

Cohort	n	GOOD+	BLOWUP	ERA
Q1 — Do our own calls work? · Verdict ladder + MIZ bands · live board rows only, nothing backfilled
Verdict · AUTO START	23	74%	17%	3.45
Verdict · START	46	57%	11%	4.13
Verdict · DART	88	38%	19%	5.05
Verdict · SIT	177	41%	21%	4.59
MIZ ≥ 5.0	102	59%	18%	4.08
MIZ 3.5–4.9	138	38%	22%	5.09
MIZ < 3.5	77	40%	16%	4.44
All live board picks	334	44%	19%	4.56
Q1 read — the ladder has not separated: GOOD+ runs 74% · 57% · 38% · 41% down the rungs, and MIZ does not sort either: 59% · 38% · 40% from the top band down.
Q2 — Which outside list earns the weight? · BP and PL graded on their own published lists · mostly rebuilt from git
PL · Auto Start	23	65%	22%	4.21
PL · Probably Start	47	57%	13%	3.79
PL · Questionable Start	95	46%	21%	4.63
PL · Do Not Start	141	39%	21%	4.80
BP · Auto	6	50%	0%	3.45
BP · Likely	26	42%	19%	4.66
All graded picks	334	44%	19%	4.56
Q2 read — against the 44% all-picks baseline, PL's top tiers clear it (65% · 57%) and BP's top tiers are too thin to call (50% · 42% on n=6 · n=26).

Rows are overlapping lenses on the same picks, not a partition — one start can be a PL Auto Start and a Verdict SIT at once, so they never sum to the headline; each group is read against its own baseline row.

⚠ Dissent check — the override is ahead so far — 67% GOOD+ on n=6. Splits are picks the board started over our MIZ sit-call (vs 44% for all live picks).

Calibration — do our numbers mean anything? · full season, 2026-06-29→2026-09-11 · 1022 graded picks · MIZ on 479, BP on 230, Verdict on 503

The ladder above asks whether the tiers sort. This asks the harder question: is the number a probability — when the board says 7, do 70% of those starts come back GOOD+? Bins are equal-count and merge until every one clears n=15; the walk-forward rows are scored against a model that only ever saw earlier days.

Score bin	n	mean	GOOD+	95% CI
MIZ score → P(GOOD+) · our matchup score, 0–10 · live rows only · n=479
MIZ 0.5–3.3	108	2.7	41%	32%–50%
MIZ 3.4–4.0	93	3.7	43%	33%–53%
MIZ 4.1–4.8	97	4.4	51%	41%–60%
MIZ 4.9–5.6	92	5.2	50%	40%–60%
MIZ 5.7–8.9	89	6.4	60%	49%–69%
All MIZ-scored picks	479	—	48%	—
BP score → P(GOOD+) · RelieverRecon's published rating · includes git-backfilled rows · n=230
BP 4.6–6.6	48	6.1	35%	23%–50%
BP 6.7–7.3	44	7.0	52%	38%–66%
BP 7.4–7.7	47	7.5	45%	31%–59%
BP 7.8–8.4	47	8.1	47%	33%–61%
BP 8.5–10.0	44	9.1	43%	30%–58%
All BP-scored picks	230	—	44%	—
Verdict tier → P(GOOD+) · the consensus call itself · live rows only
AUTO START	33	—	67%	50%–80%
START	65	—	58%	46%–70%
DART	135	—	45%	37%–54%
SIT	270	—	45%	39%–51%

Out-of-sample	n	value	vs
Walk-forward probability · logistic on MIZ, refit daily on earlier days only · from 2026-08-05 · 37 days
Brier — our probability	415	0.249	lower is better
Brier — flat base rate to date	415	0.254	we win by 0.005
Brier — verdict-tier history	415	0.253	we win by 0.005
Log loss — our probability	415	0.690	lower is better
ECE — our probability	415	0.067	5 equal-count bins
ECE bins · predicted p vs what actually happened
said 32%–46%	83	42%	off by 0%
said 46%–50%	83	37%	off by 11%
said 50%–55%	83	42%	off by 11%
said 55%–59%	83	54%	off by 3%
said 60%–74%	83	55%	off by 9%
Verdict — usable with caveats: ECE 0.067 over n=415 out-of-sample picks (≤0.03 well calibrated · ≤0.07 usable with caveats); edges the flat base rate on Brier (0.249 vs 0.254, a thin margin; log-loss ~coin-flip).

🔥 Today's Hitter Streamers

Top 10 FA bats for today's slate · score = split vs SP hand (35%) + SP softness (35%) + bat quality (15%) + trailing 15 days (10%) + park (5%) · facing an elite arm fades the score hard (feast on weak pitchers).

#	Hitter	Matchup	Why	Legs	Score
1	AUTO STARTMickey GasperC · 12% own	vs KC · Dobnak RHP	szn .373 xwOBAL15: 1.013 OPS (46 PA)L14 contact +3.5 (.447 xwOBAcon, 27 BBE)usually bats 2nd (×1.10)beats 4 of 4 eligible startersDobnak .335 allowed · soft SP0.961 OPS vs RHP (144 AB)BOS plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	98
2	AUTO STARTLars NootbaarLF · 2% own	vs TEX · Rocker RHP	szn .347 xwOBAL15: 1.231 OPS (35 PA)L14 contact +2.7 (.431 xwOBAcon, 18 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)fills OF needbeats 5 of 6 eligible startersRocker .329 allowed · soft SP0.768 OPS vs RHP (199 AB)AZ plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	72
3	STARTAndrew Vaughn1B · 4% own	vs CIN · Singer RHP	szn .334 xwOBAL15: 0.904 OPS (31 PA)L14 contact -2.2 (.321 xwOBAcon, 22 BBE)usually bats 4th (×1.05)beats 2 of 4 eligible startersSinger .348 allowed · soft SP0.779 OPS vs RHP (166 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	66
4	STARTGary SanchezC · 2% own	vs CIN · Singer RHP	szn .344 xwOBAusually bats 5thbeats 1 of 2 eligible startersSinger .348 allowed · soft SP0.756 OPS vs RHP (112 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	61
5	DEPTHJoc PedersonDH · 2% own	@ AZ · Pfaadt RHP	szn .344 xwOBAL15: 0.870 OPS (33 PA)L14 contact +1.4 (.400 xwOBAcon, 20 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)beats 0 of 1 eligible startersPfaadt .300 allowed · avg SP0.837 OPS vs RHP (341 AB)AZ plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	61
6	STARTEduardo Valencia1B · 3% own	vs COL · Gordon RHP	szn .323 xwOBAL14 contact +1.5 (.404 xwOBAcon, 17 BBE)usually bats 5thbeats 2 of 4 eligible startersshort side vs RHP — 52% of ABGordon .323 allowed · avg SP0.861 OPS vs RHP (48 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	61
7	STARTAnthony Seigler3B · 0% own	vs KC · Dobnak RHP	szn .315 xwOBAbeats 1 of 5 eligible startersDobnak .335 allowed · soft SP0.797 OPS vs RHP (112 AB)BOS plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	59
8	STARTAndrew BenintendiLF · 3% own	@ STL · Leahy RHP	szn .311 xwOBAL15: 0.704 OPS (43 PA)L14 contact +0.2 (.374 xwOBAcon, 28 BBE)usually bats 4th (×1.05)fills OF needbeats 3 of 6 eligible startersLeahy .337 allowed · soft SP0.749 OPS vs RHP (349 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	53
9	STARTJesus SanchezRF · 1% own	vs BAL · Bradish RHP	szn .322 xwOBAusually bats 4th (×1.05)fills OF needbeats 3 of 6 eligible startersBradish .318 allowed · avg SP0.781 OPS vs RHP (239 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	53
10	STARTRafael Flores Jr.1B · 2% own	@ CHC · Holmes RHP	szn .345 xwOBAL15: 0.678 OPS (44 PA)L14 contact +4.3 (.466 xwOBAcon, 29 BBE)usually bats 7th (×0.95)beats 1 of 4 eligible startersshort side vs RHP — 51% of ABHolmes .311 allowed · avg SP0.804 OPS vs RHP (57 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	51

Tiers vs YOUR lineup tonight — median starter 54, worst Kaelen Culpepper (3). AUTO START = beats the median eligible starter.

TBD starter = neutral SP + split legs until the probable posts (refresh upgrades it). Splits need 30+ AB vs that hand. IL bats are excluded; bats who rarely start against tonight's hand are dropped. Doubleheaders: legs average the ends he plays, and everyday bats get up to a ×1.50 volume boost. Lineup slot scales the score by expected PAs from the bat's usual spot (leadoff ×1.12 … 9-hole ×0.90, modal over the last ~10 played days) — his typical order, not today's card, since that posts after waivers run.

🎯 FA Hitters — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Kyle Schwarber

1Victor Mesa Jr.LF · TB · 3.6%HEATER

18-BBE trusted flare, .526 BA, 3 HR, 3 SB last 7 — multi-category explosion with real contact quality

L7 flare 82 · ATC 33 PA · 1 HR · 1 SB · 0.228 · L7 0.526 · 3 HR · sim -0.1 pts

2Leo Bernal

C · StL · 1.6% · BEST VALUE

33-BBE Heat Board sample, .325 L14 BA, 12 RBI surge — volume and contact quality both real

Heat 77 · 33 BBE · ATC 32 PA · 1 HR · 1 SB · 0.239 · L7 0.32 · 1 HR · sim -0.1 pts

3Joc Pederson

DH · Tex · 2.4% · UPSIDE

2 HR, 4 RBI last 7 days; 20-BBE Heat Board; wRC+ 115 projection supports power continuation

Heat 73 · 20 BBE · ATC 39 PA · 2 HR · 0 SB · 0.230 · L7 0.286 · 2 HR · sim -0.1 pts

4Rafael Flores Jr.

1B · Pit · 2.2% · HEATER

29-BBE trusted Heat Board, .466 xwOBAcon, .381 BA last 7 — best contact-quality floor in the pool

Heat 80 · 29 BBE · ATC 30 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.234 · L7 0.381 · 1 HR · sim -0.1 pts

5Michael Conforto

LF · ChC · 0.5% · CATEGORY FIT

.417 BA last 7 with HR; AVG rank is live and his hot bat protects MIZ's thin AVG cushion

Heat 74 · 18 BBE · ATC 32 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.220 · L7 0.417 · 1 HR · sim -0.1 pts

Passed on: Christian Koss posted a gaudy 3-HR, 1-SB last-7 line but carries a wRC+ 69 ATC projection with no Heat Board signal, making the production almost certainly unsustainable.

💪 Hitter List Rankings

PL Top 150 hitters · your bats + top FAs.

On Hitter List · 16 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Hitter	MLB	Pos	Chg	AVG	xwOBA	HR	SB	RoS	Chu’s Take
16	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	DH	+3	.238	.365	44	3	123
18	Randy Arozarena	SEA	OF	-	.272	.346	22	22	127
21	Miguel Vargas	CHW	1B/3B	+19	.247	.382	30	18	115	Miguel Vargas has returned to the levels we saw early this summer and that really revs my engine. He’s one of those players who has shown…
36	Yandy Díaz	TB	1B	+3	.303	.353	22	3	122
46	Zach Neto	LAA	SS	+11	.242	.310	25	19	111	Zach Neto has been a monster over the last nine games, with 17 hits, 18 combined runs and RBI (a seven RBI night helps), and seven extra-…
59	Jac Caglianone	KC	1B/OF	+13	.283	.357	23	6	107	Jac Caglianone still hits a lot of grounders, but not quite as many as before (the rolling 15-game rate is a hair below 50%) and the stri…
72	Ty France	SD	1B	+12	.294	.335	20	1	109
77	Royce Lewis	MIN	1B/2B/3B	-15	.231	.311	14	14	96	Royce Lewis is streaky. We just gotta deal with that.
85	Cole Carrigg	COL	SS/OF	-22	.266	.316	7	9	67	The strikeouts have creeped up on Cole Carrigg , up to 32% over his last 11 games (which is, conveniently, exactly 50 plate appearances).…
106	Luis Robert Jr.	NYM	OF	+UR	.221	.321	11	2	100
109	Mickey Gasper	BOS	C/1B	+UR	.265	.373	9	0	104	Mickey Gasper — Fantastic mustache, first of all. Second of all, the batted ball data suggests what’s happening of late is very real, tho…
115	Kaelen Culpepper	MIN	SS	+UR	.286	.303	3	1	90	Kaelen Culpepper — Culpepper puts a lot of balls in play and it’s working out so far. The BABIP Gods can be cruel, though. The 55 point g…
119	Rafael Flores Jr.	PIT	C/1B	+UR	.243	.345	8	0	83
133	Connor Norby	COL	1B/2B/3B	+UR	.225	.301	7	8	91	Connor Norby still has huge contact issues but the guy can hit the ball hard in the air and plays for Colorado so stream away.
135	Henry Bolte	ATH	OF	+UR	.276	.317	10	20	93	Henry Bolte is leading off again and should get some games in Sacramento soon, if you need a streamer.
137	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	BAL	1B/3B	+UR	.268	.347	8	1	92
143	Alejandro Kirk	TOR	C	+UR	.273	.304	9	1	113
145	Tyler Stephenson	CIN	C	-33	.248	.333	15	0	94
146	Ryan Jeffers	MIN	C	-29	.270	.361	14	1	116
148	Andruw Monasterio	BOS	2B/SS	-26	.241	.294	6	4	89
149	Dylan Crews	WSH	OF	-35	.225	.310	11	9	83
TS	Bryce Eldridge	SF	1B	—	.270	.357	16	1	99	Bryce Eldridge (1B, SFG) — Power prospects can often take a while to really shine.
TS	Cam Smith	Hou	OF	—	.219	.324	20	10	99	Cam Smith (OF, HOU) — The roller coaster continues.
TS	Walker Jenkins	Min	OF	—	.108	.259	1	1	102	Walker Jenkins (OF, MIN) — Jenkins will get the call today after a white-hot month in the triple-A. He’s worth a scoop in most leagues, E…
UR	James Wood	Wsh	OF	—	.266	.415	30	19	126	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Ralphy Velazquez	Cle	1B	—	—	—	—	—	83	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.

🔥 Heat Board

Hottest ACTIVE free-agent bats by contact quality, 8/29–9/11 · Heat = percentile vs all MLB bats over the same window (xwOBAcon 30 · EV 20 · Brl 20 · HH 15 · K 10 · BB 5) · min 15 BBE to qualify (smaller samples live in the HM rail) · IL excluded.

Francisco Alvarez

C · NYM · 8.9% own · xwOBAcon .555 · EV 96.6 · Brl 17.6% · 17 BBE

▼ .030 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.230	15	37	32	0
L14	.200	2	6	3	0

Rafael Flores Jr.

1B · Pit · 2.2% own · xwOBAcon .466 · EV 93.2 · Brl 10.3% · 29 BBE

▲ .020 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.243	8	19	13	0
L14	.263	2	5	3	0

Lars Nootbaar

LF · Ari · 2.5% own · xwOBAcon .431 · EV 92.1 · Brl 11.1% · 18 BBE

▲ .082 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.236	6	29	29	2
L14	.318	1	7	1	0

Leo Bernal

C · StL · 1.6% own · xwOBAcon .422 · EV 94.5 · Brl 6.1% · 33 BBE

▲ .000 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.325	2	12	7	0
L14	.325	2	12	7	0

Justin Foscue

2B · Tex · 0.6% own · xwOBAcon .489 · EV 91.3 · Brl 14.3% · 21 BBE

▲ .086 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.271	11	33	22	0
L14	.357	2	8	2	0

Michael Massey

2B · KC · 0.9% own · xwOBAcon .477 · EV 92.5 · Brl 3.6% · 28 BBE

▲ .043 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.280	11	45	46	3
L14	.323	0	1	0	1

Alex Freeland

3B · LAD · 0.3% own · xwOBAcon .383 · EV 91.8 · Brl 12.5% · 16 BBE

▼ .077 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.227	3	20	28	2
L14	.150	0	1	4	0

Andrew Benintendi

LF · ChW · 3.3% own · xwOBAcon .374 · EV 92.0 · Brl 14.3% · 28 BBE

▼ .048 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.242	14	70	55	1
L14	.194	1	3	6	0

Michael Conforto

LF · ChC · 0.5% own · xwOBAcon .432 · EV 89.5 · Brl 11.1% · 18 BBE

▲ .157 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.243	14	41	31	1
L14	.400	2	8	3	0

Joc Pederson

DH · Tex · 2.4% own · xwOBAcon .400 · EV 90.7 · Brl 15.0% · 20 BBE

▲ .022 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.237	26	53	56	2
L14	.259	3	5	4	0

Honorable mention · hottest L7 (9/5–9/11), not yet on the board · tiny samples — peek, don't trust

Victor Mesa Jr.

LF · TB

.498 xwOBAcon

18 BBE · .526 L7

Kyle Teel

C · ChW

.670 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .357 L7

Nathaniel Lowe

1B · Cle

.547 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .167 L7

Cole Young

2B · Sea

.424 xwOBAcon

13 BBE · .313 L7

Nolan Gorman

3B · StL

.417 xwOBAcon

14 BBE · .211 L7

Owen Caissie

RF · Mia

.489 xwOBAcon

10 BBE · .176 L7

🎯 FA Pitchers — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Andres Munoz

1Merrill KellySP · Ari · 22.1%HEATER

93rd-percentile suppression on 48 BBE is the most trusted contact-quality signal in this pool; 3 GS adds W/K volume with ratios MIZ can absorb.

Supp 93 · 48 BBE · ATC 16.0 IP · 1 W · 13 K · 4.60 · 1.36 · sim -0.1 pts

2Steven Cruz

RP · KC · 1.3% · CATEGORY FIT

Confirmed closer role, 2 projected SV, 90th-percentile suppression on small but corroborating 11-BBE sample; SV rank 4 with only 2-save cushion above 5th.

Supp 90 · 11 BBE · ATC 5.0 IP · 0 W · 5 K · 4.24 · 1.31 · 2 SV · Closer · sim -0.0 pts

3Andrew Alvarez

SP · Wsh · 8.0% · BEST VALUE

89th-percentile suppression, 4.07 ATC ERA is safest SP ERA in pool; protects rank-1 ERA/WHIP while adding K/W volume behind pace cap.

Supp 89 · 26 BBE · ATC 12.0 IP · 0 W · 10 K · 4.07 · 1.38 · PL #15 · sim -0.1 pts

4Connor Prielipp

SP · Min · 2.6% · UPSIDE

Only positive roto-sim delta (+0.0), best ATC ERA among SPs with GS, 12 K in 2 starts; suppression middling but projection and sim agree he's additive.

Supp 66 · 25 BBE · ATC 12.0 IP · 1 W · 12 K · 4.00 · 1.32 · PL #17 · sim +0.0 pts

5Jacob Webb

RP · ChC · 4.6% · CATEGORY FIT

Confirmed closer role and 1 projected SV; ignore brutal suppression (10 BBE, untrusted) — role is the only story for RPs, and SV cushion is thin.

Supp 6 · 10 BBE · ATC 6.0 IP · 0 W · 6 K · 4.06 · 1.27 · 1 SV · Closer · sim -0.0 pts

Passed on: Brandon Pfaadt has 3 GS and solid volume but 71st-percentile suppression on 43 BBE (trusted sample) with a 4.67 ATC ERA risks bleeding MIZ's #1 ERA/WHIP lead for marginal W/K gains already covered by Kelly and Alvarez.

⚾ Pitcher List Rankings

PL Top 100 SP · your arms + top FAs.

On Pitcher List · 6 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Pitcher	MLB	Chg	ERA	xERA	K/9	RoS	Pollack’s Take
1	Jacob Misiorowski	MIL	-	1.95	2.10	13.2	3.40	Like a base set Charizard, Misiorowski’s not gonna stop being dope.
9	Blake Snell	LAD	+7	1.91	2.10	12.2	3.31	#HotSnellSummer is in full swing.
10	Dylan Cease	TOR	-1	2.40	2.77	12.7	3.45	Like a perfect burger without the condiments to hit all your macros, Cease gives you everything except for a stable WHIP due to his infla…
20	Kyle Harrison	MIL	+8	3.66	3.74	10.9	4.19	With a dominant outing, he muted our concerns, but Harrison’s still displaying decreased velocity and not commanding as well as he did in…
22	Eury Pérez	MIA	-4	3.94	4.10	9.7	3.91	Pérez has the stuff to be an ace, but there’s polishing to do in the command and game plan departments to unlock his full potential.
29	Sean Burke	CHW	-4	3.58	3.82	9.8	4.43	Burke’s hot streak has come to a brief pause, but he’s still doing everything he’s supposed to with elite four-seamers upstairs and suppo…
30	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	-4	3.78	3.90	6.4	4.17	Baseball’s premier innings eater hasn’t ruined his appetite.
38	Jacob Lopez	ATH	+6	4.78	3.50	8.4	4.55	It’s the 2025 hot streak all over again. Enjoy the ride, ya’ll!
39	Dustin May	MIL	-	4.49	4.24	8.7	4.18	May got Singled Out in a disastrous performance, but his stuff is still dope, and his new situation is ideal. Higher win chance, great de…
43	Andrew Painter	PHI	+UR	5.71	4.55	7.9	4.71	From off The List to inside the Top 50, Painter has stolen our hearts with an improved heater (97+ mph with 17-18″ iVB) and emphasis on r…
45	Peter Lambert	HOU	-4	3.67	3.66	8.8	4.61	Lambert’s stumble last time was a product of being Singled Out . He’s been reliable all year, but we should be recognizing that Holly is …
46	Jared Jones	PIT	-8	4.10	3.43	10.5	3.97	The stuff is top-tier, but he’s still shaking off the Tommy John surgery rust with his command and the tight leash the Pirates have on hi…
54	Joey Cantillo	CLE	-8	4.00	4.21	9.6	4.05	Efficiency is a problem, but Cantillo is doing everything we want. More curveballs, faster fastballs, and supportive cutters. Throw more …
56	Shane Bieber	TOR	+14	4.37	5.96	7.1	4.05	Bieber is back in business. His heater looked awesome in The Trop, and his offspeed pitches are being the CSW monsters they need to be to…
58	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	-	3.53	3.77	5.9	4.67	Despite what the line suggests, Pfaadt’s last start wasn’t an end to his Vargas Rule . It was a textbook Careful, Icarus with a three-run…
59	Christian Scott	NYM	+1	3.81	3.85	10.9	4.04	Scott has been happy to show us his floor, but the stuff is still there to propel him up The List at a moment’s notice. It’s felt a littl…

🔒 Closer Chart

Save targets · roles + regression flags.

BLUEEntrenched closer (highest leverage)GREENNext man up / committee pieceYELLOWSetup, 8th-inning leverageORANGESpeculative / lower priorityMAGENTAHigh-upside future / multi-inning

	Pitcher	Tm	Role	SV	SVHD	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K/9	Rtg / Own
Yours on the chart
—	Andrés Muñoz	Seattle Mariners	CL	27	27	54.3	3.98	1.16	3.21	14.1	5.0 · —
—	Louis Varland	Toronto Blue Jays	CL	33	38	72.3	1.24	1.01	2.23	11.1	5.0 · —
Top 5 FA closers (by team rating)
—	Dylan Smith	San Francisco Giants	CL	4	11	33.3	3.24	1.41	3.93	11.1	4.0 · 0%
—	Steven Cruz HLR	Kansas City Royals	CL	7	12	55.7	4.04	1.24	4.01	9.5	3.5 · 1%
	Andrew Kittredge	Baltimore Orioles	CL	9	18	45.7	3.74	1.40	3.98	7.5	3.0 · 3%
	Jacob Webb	Chicago Cubs	CL	9	17	61.7	3.36	1.25	4.30	9.8	3.0 · 5%
	Juan Morillo	Arizona Diamondbacks	CL	3	21	58.0	2.33	1.07	2.48	10.4	1.0 · 3%

ERA cell: green <3.00 · red >4.50. xERA arrow: ↓ ERA likely to fall (buy) · ↑ ERA likely to rise (sell). Triggers when |xERA−ERA| ≥ 1.00.

✂️ Cut List

Drop priority · value, form, pedigree, role.

48	Royce Lewis 3B · Min low TV (17) sim cost ~0	TV 17 Rd 13
27	Kyle Harrison SP · Mil mid TV (43); cold last 7d; UFDA — easy to drop; BUT top-tier keeper sim cost ~0	TV 43 UFDA
21	Sandy Alcantara SP · Mia mid TV (58); BUT solid keeper sim cost ~0	TV 58 Rd 14
14	Joe Ryan SP · Min BUT high-pedigree (Rd 5) sim cost ~0	TV 72 Rd 5
9	Blake Snell SP · LAD BUT strong RoS (3.31 ERA) sim cost ~0	TV 80 Rd 8

Higher score = drop sooner — top 5 by score, and only 8+ reaches the board, so the number has no ceiling and is only comparable within this list. The sim line is a roto-sim marginal (cut vs. keep on one shared set of draws), not a measured cost. Pedigree + named closers shielded.

🌱 Stash List

PL's top prospects · grab them cheap.

Hitters

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 24: Top 10 Hitting Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + PSS + PFV + age + 40-man + path.

21 available — 1 yours

R. Velazquez YOURS

1B/C · CLE · AA · 20 · ⏸ 6d

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

29·2·.290

M. Arroyo

SS · SEA · AAA · 21 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

18·17·.281

S. Thompson

OF · COL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

14·20·.307

J. Tibbs III

OF · LAD · AAA · 23 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

29·10·.296

C. Ingle

C · CLE · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

20·2·.285

H. Mendez

OF · MIN · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

12·5·.282

B. Davidson

OF · SFG · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

September

Szn

28·19·.286

S. Walcott

3B/SS · TEX · AA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

10·12·.329

Z. Hope

OF · DET · AA · 21 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

28·26·.286

M. Anderson

2B · DET · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

16·5·.299

R. Ward

LF · LAD · AAA · 28 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

21·8·.247

C. Cannarella

OF · MIA · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

15·21·.333

A. Miller

SS · PHI · AA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

0·0·.333

J. Long

1B · CHC · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

15·3·.272

R. Clifford

1B · NYM · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

17·8·.177

E. Arroyo

SS · CIN · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

15·14·.281

J. Made

SS · MIL · AA · 19 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

14·36·.270

S. King

SS/2B/3B · WSN · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

19·15·.305

K. Alderman

OF · MIA · AAA · 23 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

18·10·.252

P. Harber

3B · SFG · AAA · 24 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

'27

Szn

17·4·.272

D. Crisantes

2B/3B · ARI · AAA · 21 · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

blocked

Szn

9·0·.288

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

Pitchers

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 24: Top 10 Pitching Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + L3 quality + FV + age + 40-man + path.

29 available

T. Johnson

SP · TBR · AAA · 24 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

87K·3.09

J. Tong

SP · NYM · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

140K·4.57

B. Mautz

SP · STL · AAA · 24 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

100K·4.28

H. Smith

SP · CHW · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

August 1st

Szn

113K·3.42

M. Ullola

SP · HOU · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

100K·4.12

L. Perales

SP · WSN · AAA · 23 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

106K·4.18

A. Kelly

SP · PIT · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

77K·4.47

C. Seymour

SP · SFG · AAA · 27 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

88K·4.23

K. Curtis

SP · PIT · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

115K·4.93

R. Snelling

SP · MIA · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

46K·2.38

D. Sandlin

SP · CHW · AAA · 25 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

99K·3.35

O. Murphy

SP · ATL · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

127K·3.63

J. Wenninger

SP · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

122K·4.21

M. Bratt

SP · ARI · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

84K·3.88

G. Wood

SP · PHI · AA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

'26

Szn

139K·4.36

J. Ritchie

SP · ATL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

142K·3.72

M. Forret

SP · BAL · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

125K·3.89

T. Bremner

SP · LAA · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

100K·4.33

R. Sloan

SP · SEA · AA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

124K·3.70

E. Rodriguez

SP · NYY · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

123K·3.09

T. McDougal

SP · CHW · AAA · 23 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

50K·5.09

R. Ryan

SP · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

45K·4.23

B. Garrett

SP · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

June 1st

Szn

114K·3.76

D. Davalillo

SP · TEX · AAA · 24 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

100K·4.87

C. Dana

SP · LAA · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

85K·5.52

B. Hopkins

SP · TBR · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

122K·5.17

C. Crow

SP · MIL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

104K·4.01

T. Gibson

SP · BAL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

102K·4.99

L. Braun

SP · ATL · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

105K·4.02

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

🔭 15 not a 2026 factor — Anthony Eyanson · Jackson Ferris · Liam Doyle · Tyson Hardin · Christian Zazueta · Jackson Wolf · Jurrangelo Cijntje · Jamie Arnold · Bryce Mayer · Daniel Eagen · David Hagaman · Jonathan Santucci · Joseph Dzierwa · Jaxon Wiggins · Karson Milbrandt

💼 Trades

Buy-low targets · league trade history.

Top Buy-Lows

Rebound candidates · suggested offers.

Hitters

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Juan Soto RF · NYM · GARR · jregarris +1.2σ buy-low · RF — fits a need · BA 0.274 / xBA 0.293 · xwOBA 0.415	100%	159 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Kyle Schwarber DH · comparable value (TV 100 vs target 100)
📈 BUY-LOW	Heriberto Hernandez LF · Mia · FRAN · francisw789 +1.4σ buy-low · LF — fits a need · BA 0.225 / xBA 0.247 · xwOBA 0.355	10%	99 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Royce Lewis 3B + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 17 vs target 23)
📈 BUY-LOW	Mike Trout OF · LAA · KNIG · TKHOO +1.3σ buy-low · OF — fits a need · BA 0.244 / xBA 0.254 · xwOBA 0.377	90%	126 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Joe Ryan SP · comparable value (TV 72 vs target 77)
📈 BUY-LOW	Corey Seager SS · Tex · PEYT · simplejack2k9 +1.4σ buy-low · SS — modest fit · BA 0.225 / xBA 0.248 · xwOBA 0.350	62%	125 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Eury Perez SP · comparable value (TV 50 vs target 52)
📈 BUY-LOW	Cal Raleigh C · Sea · KNIG · TKHOO +1.7σ buy-low · C — modest fit · BA 0.182 / xBA 0.190 · xwOBA 0.313	86%	129 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Henry Bolte RF + Blake Snell SP · two-piece package (TV 95 vs target 95)
📈 BUY-LOW	JJ Bleday CF · Cin · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.3σ buy-low · CF — fits a need · BA 0.212 / xBA 0.239 · xwOBA 0.342	21%	100 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Cam Smith RF + Royce Lewis 3B · two-piece package (TV 23 vs target 26)
↑ mild buy	Taylor Ward LF · Sea · GoOs · My Best Guys +0.7σ buy-low · LF — fits a need · BA 0.225 / xBA 0.241 · xwOBA 0.335	57%	120 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Sandy Alcantara SP · comparable value (TV 58 vs target 60)
↑ mild buy	Kyle Stowers LF · Mia · KNIG · TKHOO +0.6σ buy-low · LF — fits a need · BA 0.245 / xBA 0.230 · xwOBA 0.331	28%	111 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Henry Bolte RF + Royce Lewis 3B · two-piece package (TV 32 vs target 27)
↑ mild buy	Dominic Canzone RF · Sea · GARR · jregarris +0.6σ buy-low · RF — fits a need · BA 0.255 / xBA 0.266 · xwOBA 0.351	12%	114 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 35 vs target 33)
↑ mild buy	Ian Happ LF · ChC · FRAN · francisw789 +0.7σ buy-low · LF — fits a need · BA 0.220 / xBA 0.206 · xwOBA 0.313	70%	109 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 35 vs target 41)

Pitchers

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Kodai Senga SP · NYM · KRTZ · FratSkins +1.1σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 7.14 vs xERA 5.10	11%	3.88 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Cam Smith RF + +$4 FAAB · comparable value (TV 6 vs target 14)
↑ mild buy	Nick Pivetta SP · SD · GARR · jregarris +0.7σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 3.43 vs xERA 2.42	60%	3.88 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Eury Perez SP · comparable value (TV 50 vs target 54)
↑ mild buy	Bryce Miller SP · Sea · BLOB · crenshawh19 +0.6σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.22 vs xERA 3.45	29%	4.15 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 35 vs target 37)
↑ mild buy	Freddy Peralta SP · TB · KNIG · TKHOO +0.6σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.82 vs xERA 3.93	77%	4.03 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Eury Perez SP + +$4 FAAB · comparable value (TV 50 vs target 58)

League History

Completed trades · frozen grade at the deal + live grade now.

Side	Sent	At deal	Now	Trend
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Andy Pages	A- +7	A+ +45	▲ up
Camp MVP	Pete Crow-Armstrong	C -7	F -45	▼ down
Team Knighton ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Team Knighton	Matthew Boyd	F -22	F -23
Camp MVP	Kenley Jansen	A+ +22	A+ +23
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Worst2First 2026-08-10
Miz-waukee’s Best	Charlie Condon, Payton Tolle	A+ +50	A+ +33	▼ down
Worst2First	Dylan Cease	F -50	F -33	▲ up
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Dorn and Associates LLC 2026-08-05
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Travis Bazzana, George Lombard Jr., Nolan McLean	A+ +144	A+ +106	▼ down
Dorn and Associates LLC	Jackson Chourio, Jhoan Duran, Brice Turang, David Bednar	F -144	F -106	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-07-31
Miz-waukee’s Best	Samuel Basallo, Kade Anderson	A- +8	A+ +32	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine	Blake Snell	C -8	F -32	▼ down
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Team Knighton 2026-07-23
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Jo Adell, Jacob deGrom	F -49	F -63	▼ down
Team Knighton	Trea Turner	A+ +49	A+ +63	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine ⇄ Miz-waukee’s Best 2026-07-19
Ramirez Against the Machine	Sandy Alcantara	F -42	F -54	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best	Josh Jung	A+ +42	A+ +54	▲ up
I need Buck Showalter ⇄ Hit the Damn Ball You Bums 2026-06-19
I need Buck Showalter	Nasim Nunez	A+ +28	A +13	▼ down
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Justin Wrobleski	F -28	D -13	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ The Boys of Summer 2026-06-12
Miz-waukee’s Best	Chandler Simpson	A +10	A- +7	▼ down
The Boys of Summer	$30 FAAB	D -10	C -7	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-05-01
Miz-waukee’s Best	Kenley Jansen	—	A- +7
Camp MVP	$30 FAAB	A- +3	C -7	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-04-22
Miz-waukee’s Best	Nathan Eovaldi, $70 FAAB	—	F -56
Ramirez Against the Machine	Jac Caglianone	A+ +60	A+ +56	▼ down

🔻 Sell-High — My Roster

Surface line outrunning the underlying skill — trade-value peaks. σ = his surface-stat z-score minus his Statcast-skill z-score, both against the league reference for his side — bigger σ = further ahead of the skill. Pair with Buy-Low Targets.

Verdict	Player	Own	Surface vs expected	Contact	2027 keeper
↓ SHOP	Yandy Diaz 1B · TB 0.64σ sell-high · 1B · BA 0.303 / xBA 0.287 · xwOBA 0.353 — test the market, don't force it	93%	BA 0.303 / xBA 0.287 +.016 wOBA 0.362 / xwOBA 0.353 +.009	HH 48.3% · Brl/PA 5.5%	7th · +1 rd vs mkt
↓ SHOP	Henry Bolte RF · Oak 0.58σ sell-high · RF · BA 0.276 / xBA 0.248 · xwOBA 0.317 — test the market, don't force it	12%	BA 0.276 / xBA 0.248 +.028 wOBA 0.338 / xwOBA 0.317 +.021	HH 48.0% · Brl/PA 4.6%	25th · +5 rds vs mkt

👥 Your Roster

Your roster · news + buy/sell signals.

News (last 24h)

Player news · last 24h.

Royce Lewis Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins
Sat 09-12 04:15 AM
Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins
Ralphy Velazquez Tending to lower-body soreness
Sat 09-12 12:00 AM
Guardians assistant general manager Matt Foreman said that Velazquez hasn't played for Triple-A Columbus since last Sunday due to lingering lower-body soreness, Paul Hoynes of The Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.

Leverage Buys/Sells

Buy/sell windows · surface vs. underlying.

Hitters

Player	Pos	MLB	BA	xBA	wOBA	xwOBA	Brl%	Own%	Signal
James Wood	LF	Wsh	0.266	0.274	0.392	0.415	100.0	99.0	📈 BUY-LOW
Kyle Schwarber	DH	Phi	0.238	0.239	0.373	0.365	99.0	99.6	📈 BUY-LOW
Miguel Vargas	3B	ChW	0.247	0.266	0.360	0.382	89.0	95.0	📈 BUY-LOW
Cole Carrigg	CF	Col	0.266	0.252	0.339	0.316	—	12.2	fair
Walker Jenkins	CF	Min	0.108	0.159	0.236	0.259	—	4.6	fair
Kaelen Culpepper	SS	Min	0.286	0.252	0.334	0.303	—	5.9	fair
Cam Smith	RF	Hou	0.219	0.242	0.302	0.324	74.0	7.5	↑ mild buy
Royce Lewis	3B	Min	0.231	0.240	0.302	0.311	72.0	13.4	↑ mild buy
Bryce Eldridge	1B	SF	0.270	0.259	0.360	0.357	72.0	14.0	↑ mild buy
Ryan Jeffers	C	Min	0.270	0.257	0.375	0.361	72.0	41.9	fair
Zach Neto	SS	LAA	0.242	0.214	0.333	0.310	75.0	60.8	fair
Jac Caglianone DTD	RF	KC	0.283	0.281	0.355	0.357	90.0	47.7	fair
Randy Arozarena	LF	Sea	0.272	0.257	0.365	0.346	51.0	93.8	fair
Henry Bolte	RF	Oak	0.276	0.248	0.338	0.317	49.0	11.8	↓ mild fade
Yandy Diaz	1B	TB	0.303	0.287	0.362	0.353	47.0	92.8	↓ mild fade
Ralphy Velazquez DTD	1B	Cle	—	—	—	—	—	0.7	—

Pitchers

Pitcher	Pos	MLB	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K-BB%	xwOBA-a	Brl%-a	Own%	Signal
Blake Snell	SP	LAD	37.7	1.91	1.09	2.10	22.7	0.225	1.2	90.8	↑ mild buy
Andres Munoz	RP	Sea	54.3	3.98	1.16	3.21	27.4	0.278	8.5	80.5	↑ mild buy
Joe Ryan	SP	Min	129.7	4.10	1.14	3.50	21.6	0.290	10.5	87.8	fair
Jacob Misiorowski	SP	Mil	161.3	1.95	0.80	2.10	31.7	0.225	3.9	99.3	fair
Sandy Alcantara	SP	Mia	200.0	3.78	1.22	3.90	10.6	0.305	5.6	83.2	fair
Dylan Cease	SP	Tor	161.3	2.40	1.04	2.77	24.8	0.259	5.2	99.3	fair
Kyle Harrison	SP	Mil	110.7	3.66	1.27	3.74	21.4	0.299	8.3	61.1	fair
Eury Perez	SP	Mia	139.3	3.94	1.24	4.10	15.1	0.312	10.2	68.4	fair
Louis Varland	RP	Tor	72.3	1.24	1.01	2.23	23.9	0.232	4.0	86.4	fair

📰 MLB News — Top Fantasy Stories

🔒 Keepers — 2027 Slate

Peter's model (additive): rounds-saved (cost arbitrage spine) + current skill + career-grade pedigree + sample stability + Statcast over/under-performance trend, with age-decline (33+), closer/RP, and top-30 talent adjustments. Heavy on bargain-hunting.
Claude's model (multiplicative dynasty index): EFV(2027) = (3 + skill + upside) × age_mult × pos_mult; score = EFV − cost_replacement − mookie-lock. Compounds age curve and position scarcity.
Sorted by consensus rank (average of both models). MLB-inactive players surfaced in 🚑 Return Watch below.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict	Notes
1.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	21st	#1 (+24.4)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51	UFDA-G FV 55
2.0	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	22nd	#2 (+21.5)	#2 (+27.1)	S · $27
3.0	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	25th	#3 (+19.6)	#3 (+15.8)	A · $16	UFDA
4.0	Bryce Eldridge	1B · 20yo	25th	#4 (+16.2)	#4 (+14.4)	A · $14	UFDA FV 55
5.0	Henry Bolte	RF · 21yo	25th	#5 (+14.9)	#5 (+13.8)	A · $14	UFDA FV 40
6.0	Dylan Cease	SP · 30yo	4th	#6 (+12.0)	#6 (+11.7)	A · $12
7.0	Eury Perez	SP · 23yo	20th	#7 (+10.5)	#7 (+8.5)	B · $8	UFDA-G
8.0	Jac Caglianone	RF · 22yo	21st	#8 (+10.1)	#8 (+6.8)	B · $7	UFDA-G FV 55

NEW UFDA cap: Peter 3/3 · Claude 3/3 · BOTH = top 8 in both models. Peter only = his model values cost surplus more; Claude only = mine values projection / position scarcity more.

🚑 Return watch — would be keeper-eligible if they get MLB action this year. Rank shown is hypothetical (where they'd slot if eligible).

Player	Pos · Age	Cost	Peter (if elig.)	Claude (if elig.)
Ralphy Velazquez	1B · 19yo	25th	#17 (-2.0)	#13 (+1.4)

Updated Sat Sep 12 · 1:04 PM ET

🌍 League-Wide Top Keepers

Top 10 keepers · all 12 teams · both models. Yours in green.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	Team	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict
1.5	Jesus Luzardo	SP · 28yo	KNIG	21st	#1 (+28.9)	#2 (+42.1)	S · $42
2.5	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	MIZ	21st	#4 (+24.4)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51
3.5	Jordan Walker	RF · 24yo	GARR	25th	#2 (+25.2)	#5 (+29.9)	S · $30
3.5	Bryan Baker	RP · 31yo	DORN	25th	#3 (+24.9)	#4 (+38.7)	S · $39
6.5	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	MIZ	22nd	#7 (+21.5)	#6 (+27.1)	S · $27
7.0	Cam Schlittler	SP · 24yo	KRTZ	19th	— (+19.6)	#3 (+40.8)	S · $41
8.0	Ben Rice	1B · 27yo	DORN	20th	#5 (+22.2)	— (+15.2)	A · $15
8.5	Payton Tolle	SP · 22yo	FRST	25th	#6 (+21.8)	— (+18.5)	S · $18
9.0	Junior Caminero	3B · 22yo	RAGE	5th	— (+12.3)	#7 (+23.3)	S · $23
9.5	Jose Soriano	SP · 27yo	BLOB	25th	#8 (+20.3)	— (+17.1)	A · $17
9.5	Sal Stewart	1B · 21yo	KRTZ	10th	— (+12.3)	#8 (+22.4)	S · $22
10.0	Logan Henderson	SP · 23yo	PEYT	25th	#9 (+19.7)	— (+15.8)	A · $16
10.0	Riley O'Brien	RP · 31yo	THAR	17th	— (+11.8)	#9 (+21.9)	S · $22
10.5	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	MIZ	25th	#10 (+19.6)	— (+15.8)	A · $16
10.5	Cristopher Sanchez	SP · 29yo	PEYT	9th	— (+17.4)	#10 (+21.1)	S · $21

Updated Sat Sep 12 · 1:04 PM ET

🏚️ Keeper Cupboards

Every team's six best keepers · shade = dual-model consensus value. Cupboard score weights the top four heavily (the slots that get kept), keepers 5–8 taper. 100 = league's best cupboard.

Team	K1	K2	K3	K4	K5	K6	Cupboard
1MIZ	MisiorowskiR21	VarlandR22	VargasR25	EldridgeR25	BolteR25	CeaseR4	100
2DORN	BakerR25	RiceR20	McLeanR20	BazzanaR25	LaraR25	AnthonyR18	82
3KNIG	LuzardoR21	deGromR13	MartinezR25	AbreuR15	JensenR20	ChapmanR11	74
4KRTZ	SchlittlerR19	BengeR25	StewartR10	SanojaR25	McGonigleR17	IIR5	71
5FRAN	LatzR25	CavalliR21	BurnsR5	McCarthyR25	AntonacciR25	BradishR21	67
6GoOs	GriffinR25	BurlesonR9	BradleyR25	GoodmanR21	BaldwinR14	GomezR25	67
7PEYT	HendersonR25	SanchezR9	ValdezR25	WooR8	WetherholtR13	MayoR17	61
8THAR	RasmussenR8	O'BrienR17	WilliamsR11	Jr.R16	KeaschallR21	MarshR25	58
9BLOB	SorianoR25	LopezR20	ScottR25	TaylorR25	LileR15	SaleR1	54
10RAGE	EwingR25	CamineroR5	HerreraR20	BasalloR19	JonesR25	ImanagaR9	52
11GARR ▼ thin	WalkerR25	MessickR18	CanzoneR25	GrayR7	DinglerR22	SimpsonR9	51
12FRST ▼ thin	TolleR25	WheelerR8	RouppR25	MuncyR18	SkubalR1	RumfieldR25	47

The bottom two rows are your trade marks — thin cupboards pay up for keepable pieces.

data: snap 5h · BP 18d · PL 18d · HL 15d · PSS 9h · BR 0h · FG 1h · proj 2h · closer 0h · oyster 2h · AAA-sc 14h · cookie ok