Miz-waukee’s Best — The Brandon League

Last updated Tuesday, September 15 · 01:04 PM ET

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Any player in the league universe · tap a result for the card.

☕ Morning Briefing

🏆 MIZ sits at 106.0 roto points, a commanding 17.5 pts clear of #2 Phil Swift's Flex Seal — a comfortable cushion, but two categories need your attention today.

⚾ Your bats delivered across the board yesterday: Miguel Vargas was the standout with a 2-4, 2R, 1HR, 2RBI, 1SB line vs. the Guardians, while Cole Carrigg went 2-5 with a homer and Randy Arozarena chipped in 2-4 with a steal — both categories where you're thin at the margin. Leo Bernal also quietly went 3-4 with an RBI behind the dish. Make sure Jacob Misiorowski is active tonight.

📊 Two category alerts: PEYT is just 1 SB behind you — Arozarena's swipe yesterday helps, but this needs active monitoring. On AVG, you trail GoOs by just 0.001 — Bernal's 3-4 and Vargas's 2-4 move the needle, and a +1 roto point is there for the taking if the contact keeps up.

🌱 FA worth a look: Jordan Lawlar (RI 90, available) went 2-4, 1HR, 2RBI, 1SB vs. Miami in MLB action — the sim projects him at +0.4 pts with a .353 L7 BA contributing across three needed categories. The contact heat board also flashed early signals on Connor Norby (83/99, 14 BBE, .574 xwOBAcon) and Michael Arroyo (80/99, 8 BBE, .549 xwOBAcon), though both are small-sample reads. Among the recalled arms, Bobby Miller (Dodgers) and Lucas Erceg (Royals) are the most notable available call-ups if you need bullpen depth.

📰 Pete Fairbanks left Monday's game with an injury and is day-to-day with no formal diagnosis yet — closer situations in flux are always worth monitoring in roto. Elsewhere, Jonah Tong — just dropped by Phil Swift's Flex Seal and now a free agent — threw six strong innings vs. Baltimore (6 IP, 1 unearned run, 6 K, 30% whiff rate), and his underlying command profile has real post-hype appeal if he's still available in your pool.

ELIGIBILITYK. Schwarber 1B 8/10

Your standing

1stof 12

106.0 roto pts +17.5 clear of 2nd

+2.0 pts vs last update

Top Gaps

W (7.0)

categories below mid-pack

Score change since last update

SB +1.0AVG +1.0

🎯 Category Pressure

Category ranks vs. the league.

Rank →

Δ to #1

1001

1082

🥇

290

318

🥇

RBI

943

982

🥇

154

155

168

210

+55

AVG

.255

.256

.257

.261

+0.005

1257

1278

1431

+153

+14

100

+17

ERA

3.49

3.47

🥇

WHIP

1.16

🥇

📅 Yesterday's MIZ Box Scores (2026-09-14)

Loading box scores…

🏥 IL Rehab Tracker

IL players · rehab game logs.

On the IL, no rehab games yet: Spencer Schwellenbach (IL60 · watch).

📊 League Activity (last 24h)

All adds, drops, and trades across the 12 teams.

Team	Move
Phil Swift's Flex Seal	+ Andres Gimenez \| − Jonah Tong
Miz-waukee’s Best	+ Victor Mesa Jr. \| − Cam Smith
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	+ Andre Pallante \| − Pete Fairbanks

🏆 League Standings

Current roto points · 10,000-sim projected finish. FAAB = acquisition budget remaining.

100.0% to win the league · proj finish 1.0 · 104.1 roto pts

#	Team	Pts	FAAB	Win%	Proj Pts	Range	Proj Rk
1	MIZ Miz-waukee’s Best	106.0	$0	100.0%	104.1	102–106	1.0
2	PEYT Phil Swift's Flex Seal	88.5	$24	0.0%	91.0	88–94	2.0
3	KRTZ Photogenic Nick Kurtz	83.5	$16	0.0%	86.5	84–89	2.9
4	FRAN Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	78.0	$26	0.0%	79.5	77–82	4.0
5	BLOB Camp MVP	69.5	$168	0.0%	70.3	68–73	5.0
6	GoOs I need Buck Showalter	63.5	$170	0.0%	63.0	60–66	6.1
7	THAR Phil Mickeltits	61.0	$176	0.0%	59.4	57–62	7.1
8	KNIG Team Knighton	59.5	$132	0.0%	58.1	55–61	7.6
9	FRST Worst2First	46.5	$154	0.0%	46.8	44–49	9.2
10	DORN Dorn and Associates LLC	45.5	$89	0.0%	43.7	41–46	10.6
11	GARR The Boys of Summer	43.0	$155	0.0%	45.6	44–48	9.8
12	RAGE Ramirez Against the Machine	35.5	$163	0.0%	32.0	30–34	12.0

10,000 sims · fixed seed · noise CV talent 0.12 / idio 0.06 / team-cat 0.08 · assumes ATC rest-of-season rates

Your categories · projected roto points

R 12.0HR 12.0RBI 12.0SB 8.2AVG 9.6W 7.1SV 9.0K 11.0ERA 11.6WHIP 11.6

Winnable — push here: SB, AVG, W, SV.

🚨 Today's Streaming Board

168 of 200 GS · should be 187 · 19 behindBehind pace — stream aggressively

032 left · ~18.7/wk to cap · proj 180200

⏳ BP's post is late — Verdict pill is running on our score + Pitcher List for now (BP joins the top-2 once it posts).

Your starters + top FA streamers

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Jacob Misiorowski	@ PIT	AUTO START	—	6.1	#1	Top-ranked ace; just start him.
Ryan Johnson	vs SEA	SIT	—	4.0	#14	Harder velo, difficult to square up; needs five-plus frames.
Drew Anderson	@ TOR	SIT⚠ opener	—	5.1	#17	Mediocre; only viable in 15-team formats.
Bailey Ober	vs NYY	SIT	—	4.5	#23	Velocity at 87 mph; stuff is alarming.
Sean Manaea	vs BAL	SIT	—	3.3	#19	Extended stretch of ineffectiveness; avoid.
Janson Junk	@ AZ	SIT	—	3.1	#18	Short outings, poor results despite strong model backing.
Jack Perkins	@ TB	SIT⚠ opener	—	3.3	#22	Dome venue helps but ceiling remains too low.
Kyle Freeland	vs SD	SIT	—	3.9	#29	Freeland at Coors; avoid entirely.
Cody Bradford	vs. BOS	SITrust	—	—	#16	Command has been absent since IL return.
Blade Tidwell	@ STL	SIT⚠ opener	—	3.2	#24	Arsenal lacks punch despite favorable matchup.
Jackson Kent	vs PHI	SIT	—	2.7	#21	Future upside; hasn't yet executed a full outing.

Openers filtered: Lake Bachar, Braydon Fisher, Chris Murphy

Your staff: 3.47 ERA / 1.16 WHIP · GS 168/200 — Behind pace — stream aggressively. Verdict = the best 2 of BP · our score · Pitcher List, averaged (low outlier dropped); before BP posts it's our score + PL. ⚠ = our matchup score dissented — eyeball that one. Tap a MIZ score for the reasoning.

Tomorrow · 1 of yours + top 5 FA · Wed 9/16 · BP not out yet, so pill = our score + Pitcher List

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Blake Snell	@ CIN	AUTO START	—	6.8	#1	Elite arm, no caveats.
Jared Jones	vs MIL	START	—	6.7	#8	Two strong outings; slider the key weapon.
George Kirby	@ LAA	DART	—	5.1	#12	Angels matchup; sweeper away should play.
Cristian Javier	vs KC	DART	—	4.8	#11	Finding form but six quality frames unlikely.
Yusei Kikuchi	vs SEA	DART	—	4.9	#13	Couldn't reach five frames last time; hoping for more.
Jake Bennett	@ TEX	SIT	—	4.5	#16	Better command recently, fatigue risk looms.

Openers filtered: Brady Basso

📼 Streamer Report Card

Does the Streaming Board actually work? Every pick it showed, frozen at pick time and graded off the real box score. Two scoreboards below: first our own calls — the Verdict ladder and MIZ (our matchup score, 0–10) — then the outside lists behind them, BP (RelieverRecon's daily BP Streamers post) and PL (Pitcher List's tier ranking). Grades are recomputed from raw lines on every build — the rubric can change, the history follows.

Last 30d · 342 starts graded over 29 days · GOOD+ 44% · BLOWUP 20% · agg ERA 4.60 · WHIP 1.38 · 4.4 K/start · 376 picks logged, 20 never started, 14 awaiting a box score — not graded

Grade mix · all 342 graded starts

GEM 52 GOOD 98 OK 125 BLOWUP 67

GEM6+ IP, ≤1 ER · or 6+ IP, 8+ K, ≤2 ERGOODquality start (6+ IP, ≤3 ER) · or 5+ IP, ≤2 EROKheld the line without earning GOODBLOWUP5+ ER · or under 4 IP with 4+ ERGOOD+ = GEM + GOOD. A pick whose starter never took the ball grades to nothing and leaves every rate below.

Cohort	n	GOOD+	BLOWUP	ERA
Q1 — Do our own calls work? · Verdict ladder + MIZ bands · live board rows only, nothing backfilled
Verdict · AUTO START	22	68%	18%	3.87
Verdict · START	51	53%	14%	4.44
Verdict · DART	87	41%	20%	4.86
Verdict · SIT	182	40%	21%	4.62
MIZ ≥ 5.0	107	54%	21%	4.48
MIZ 3.5–4.9	135	39%	21%	4.97
MIZ < 3.5	82	41%	17%	4.35
All live board picks	342	44%	20%	4.60
Q1 read — GOOD+ falls 68% · 53% · 41% · 40% down the rungs, but BLOWUP does not rise with it, and MIZ does not sort: 54% · 39% · 41% from the top band down.
Q2 — Which outside list earns the weight? · BP and PL graded on their own published lists · mostly rebuilt from git
PL · Auto Start	22	59%	23%	4.69
PL · Probably Start	51	55%	16%	4.17
PL · Questionable Start	97	49%	20%	4.35
PL · Do Not Start	139	36%	23%	5.03
BP · Auto	6	50%	0%	3.45
BP · Likely	23	39%	22%	4.99
All graded picks	342	44%	20%	4.60
Q2 read — against the 44% all-picks baseline, PL's top tiers clear it (59% · 55%) and BP's top tiers are too thin to call (50% · 39% on n=6 · n=23).

Rows are overlapping lenses on the same picks, not a partition — one start can be a PL Auto Start and a Verdict SIT at once, so they never sum to the headline; each group is read against its own baseline row.

⚠ Dissent check — the override is ahead so far — 60% GOOD+ on n=5. Splits are picks the board started over our MIZ sit-call (vs 44% for all live picks).

Calibration — do our numbers mean anything? · full season, 2026-06-29→2026-09-14 · 1060 graded picks · MIZ on 516, BP on 230, Verdict on 541

The ladder above asks whether the tiers sort. This asks the harder question: is the number a probability — when the board says 7, do 70% of those starts come back GOOD+? Bins are equal-count and merge until every one clears n=15; the walk-forward rows are scored against a model that only ever saw earlier days.

Score bin	n	mean	GOOD+	95% CI
MIZ score → P(GOOD+) · our matchup score, 0–10 · live rows only · n=516
MIZ 0.5–3.3	120	2.7	42%	33%–51%
MIZ 3.4–4.0	95	3.7	42%	33%–52%
MIZ 4.1–4.8	104	4.4	52%	42%–61%
MIZ 4.9–5.6	100	5.2	50%	40%–60%
MIZ 5.7–8.9	97	6.4	58%	48%–67%
All MIZ-scored picks	516	—	48%	—
BP score → P(GOOD+) · RelieverRecon's published rating · includes git-backfilled rows · n=230
BP 4.6–6.6	48	6.1	35%	23%–50%
BP 6.7–7.3	44	7.0	52%	38%–66%
BP 7.4–7.7	47	7.5	45%	31%–59%
BP 7.8–8.4	47	8.1	47%	33%–61%
BP 8.5–10.0	44	9.1	43%	30%–58%
All BP-scored picks	230	—	44%	—
Verdict tier → P(GOOD+) · the consensus call itself · live rows only
AUTO START	34	—	65%	48%–79%
START	72	—	57%	45%–68%
DART	147	—	48%	40%–56%
SIT	288	—	44%	39%–50%

Out-of-sample	n	value	vs
Walk-forward probability · logistic on MIZ, refit daily on earlier days only · from 2026-08-05 · 40 days
Brier — our probability	452	0.250	lower is better
Brier — flat base rate to date	452	0.254	we win by 0.004
Brier — verdict-tier history	452	0.254	we win by 0.004
Log loss — our probability	452	0.693	lower is better
ECE — our probability	452	0.069	5 equal-count bins
ECE bins · predicted p vs what actually happened
said 32%–45%	90	43%	off by 2%
said 45%–50%	91	38%	off by 10%
said 50%–55%	90	44%	off by 8%
said 55%–59%	91	49%	off by 8%
said 59%–74%	90	57%	off by 7%
Verdict — usable with caveats: ECE 0.069 over n=452 out-of-sample picks (≤0.03 well calibrated · ≤0.07 usable with caveats); edges the flat base rate on Brier (0.250 vs 0.254, a thin margin; log-loss ~coin-flip).

🔥 Today's Hitter Streamers

Top 10 FA bats for today's slate · score = split vs SP hand (35%) + SP softness (35%) + bat quality (15%) + trailing 15 days (10%) + park (5%) · facing an elite arm fades the score hard (feast on weak pitchers).

#	Hitter	Matchup	Why	Legs	Score
1	AUTO STARTJustin Foscue2B · 0% own	vs BOS · Sandoval LHP	szn .329 xwOBAL15: 0.955 OPS (31 PA)L14 contact +3.0 (.437 xwOBAcon, 20 BBE)usually bats 3rd (×1.07)beats 4 of 5 eligible startersSandoval .349 allowed · soft SP1.001 OPS vs LHP (130 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	93
2	AUTO STARTTy France1B · 14% own	@ COL · Freeland LHP	szn .336 xwOBAL15: 1.031 OPS (42 PA)L14 contact +3.2 (.442 xwOBAcon, 26 BBE)usually bats 4th (×1.05)beats 2 of 3 eligible startersFreeland .346 allowed · soft SP0.864 OPS vs LHP (115 AB)COL plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	85
3	AUTO STARTChristian Encarnacion-Strand1B · 3% own	@ NYM · Manaea LHP	szn .341 xwOBAL15: 0.728 OPS (48 PA)L14 contact +2.3 (.422 xwOBAcon, 29 BBE)usually bats 6th (×0.98)beats 3 of 4 eligible startersManaea .340 allowed · soft SP1.064 OPS vs LHP (60 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	76
4	AUTO STARTBrendan Donovan2B · 33% own	@ LAA · Johnson RHP	szn .314 xwOBAbeats 4 of 5 eligible startersJohnson .347 allowed · soft SP0.936 OPS vs RHP (89 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	76
5	AUTO STARTLars NootbaarLF · 2% own	vs MIA · Junk RHP	szn .351 xwOBAL15: 0.957 OPS (36 PA)L14 contact +3.6 (.449 xwOBAcon, 23 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)beats 4 of 6 eligible startersJunk .321 allowed · avg SP0.792 OPS vs RHP (209 AB)AZ plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	71
6	AUTO STARTAustin HaysLF · 0% own	@ COL · Freeland LHP	szn .289 xwOBAusually bats 6th (×0.98)beats 4 of 6 eligible startersFreeland .346 allowed · soft SP0.858 OPS vs LHP (43 AB)COL plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	66
7	AUTO STARTDonovan Walton2B · 1% own	@ TB · Jax RHP	szn .336 xwOBAL15: 0.979 OPS (39 PA)L14 contact +1.0 (.392 xwOBAcon, 26 BBE)usually bats 7th (×0.95)beats 4 of 6 eligible startersJax .328 allowed · soft SP0.868 OPS vs RHP (182 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	65
8	AUTO STARTDustin HarrisLF · 0% own	@ COL · Freeland LHP	szn .328 xwOBAL15: 0.669 OPS (35 PA)L14 contact -1.8 (.330 xwOBAcon, 23 BBE)usually bats 2nd (×1.10)beats 4 of 6 eligible startersshort side vs LHP — 15% of ABFreeland .346 allowed · soft SPCOL plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	64
9	AUTO STARTRyan WardLF · 0% own	@ CIN · Lowder RHP	szn .316 xwOBAbeats 8 of 10 eligible startersLowder .351 allowed · soft SP0.779 OPS vs RHP (52 AB)CIN plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	63
10	AUTO STARTJ.P. CrawfordSS · 5% own	@ LAA · Johnson RHP	szn .322 xwOBAL15: 0.966 OPS (64 PA)L14 contact -3.3 (.296 xwOBAcon, 44 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)beats 3 of 5 eligible startersJohnson .347 allowed · soft SP0.706 OPS vs RHP (259 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	61

Tiers vs YOUR lineup tonight — median starter 58, worst Walker Jenkins (4). AUTO START = beats the median eligible starter.

TBD starter = neutral SP + split legs until the probable posts (refresh upgrades it). Splits need 30+ AB vs that hand. IL bats are excluded; bats who rarely start against tonight's hand are dropped. Doubleheaders: legs average the ends he plays, and everyday bats get up to a ×1.50 volume boost. Lineup slot scales the score by expected PAs from the bat's usual spot (leadoff ×1.12 … 9-hole ×0.90, modal over the last ~10 played days) — his typical order, not today's card, since that posts after waivers run.

🎯 FA Hitters — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Kyle Schwarber

1Lars NootbaarLF · Ari · 2.4%HEATER

83 Heat on 23 BBE (trusted sample), .467 L7 BA, 35 PA projection, best contact-quality + volume combo

Heat 83 · 23 BBE · ATC 35 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.248 · L7 0.467 · 1 HR · sim +0.4 pts

2Jordan Lawlar

3B · Ari · 2.5% · UPSIDE

Flare hits 15 BBE threshold; .353 BA + 1 HR + 1 SB L7 delivers across three needed categories

L7 flare 77 · ATC 31 PA · 1 HR · 1 SB · 0.237 · L7 0.353 · 1 HR · sim +0.4 pts

3Ty France

1B · SD · 14.1% · HEATER

26 BBE trusted Heat 79, .571 L7 BA, AVG-safe add protects MIZ's thin .256 cushion

Heat 79 · 26 BBE · ATC 49 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.259 · L7 0.571 · 0 HR · sim +0.1 pts

4Connor Norby

3B · Col · 2.3% · CATEGORY FIT

Heat 83 flare near threshold, SB upside targets MIZ's only live climbing category at rank 4

L7 flare 83 · ATC 35 PA · 1 HR · 1 SB · 0.254 · L7 0.381 · 1 HR · sim +0.4 pts

5Jose Siri

CF · LAA · 0.1% · BEST VALUE

Only true SB contributor (1 ATC RoS SB), .368 L7 BA, credible counting stats for near-zero roster cost

Heat 74 · 19 BBE · ATC 26 PA · 1 HR · 1 SB · 0.215 · L7 0.368 · 1 HR · sim +0.4 pts

Passed on: Brett Baty has the highest Heat (82/99) but only 20 BBE and a sub-threshold flare, and ATC projects .236 AVG which risks MIZ's razor-thin .001 AVG margin over rank 4.

💪 Hitter List Rankings

PL Top 150 hitters · your bats + top FAs.

On Hitter List · 16 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Hitter	MLB	Pos	Chg	AVG	xwOBA	HR	SB	RoS	Chu’s Take
16	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	DH	+3	.238	.365	44	3	123
18	Randy Arozarena	SEA	OF	-	.278	.347	25	23	127
21	Miguel Vargas	CHW	1B/3B	+19	.249	.380	31	19	115	Miguel Vargas has returned to the levels we saw early this summer and that really revs my engine. He’s one of those players who has shown…
36	Yandy Díaz	TB	1B	+3	.301	.350	22	3	121
46	Zach Neto	LAA	SS	+11	.242	.310	26	20	111	Zach Neto has been a monster over the last nine games, with 17 hits, 18 combined runs and RBI (a seven RBI night helps), and seven extra-…
59	Jac Caglianone	KC	1B/OF	+13	.281	.355	23	6	107	Jac Caglianone still hits a lot of grounders, but not quite as many as before (the rolling 15-game rate is a hair below 50%) and the stri…
72	Ty France	SD	1B	+12	.298	.336	20	1	108
77	Royce Lewis	MIN	1B/2B/3B	-15	.230	.312	14	14	96	Royce Lewis is streaky. We just gotta deal with that.
85	Cole Carrigg	COL	SS/OF	-22	.261	.309	8	9	67	The strikeouts have creeped up on Cole Carrigg , up to 32% over his last 11 games (which is, conveniently, exactly 50 plate appearances).…
106	Luis Robert Jr.	BAL	OF	+UR	.221	.321	11	2	100
109	Mickey Gasper	BOS	C/1B	+UR	.265	.371	9	0	104	Mickey Gasper — Fantastic mustache, first of all. Second of all, the batted ball data suggests what’s happening of late is very real, tho…
115	Kaelen Culpepper	MIN	SS	+UR	.283	.304	3	1	89	Kaelen Culpepper — Culpepper puts a lot of balls in play and it’s working out so far. The BABIP Gods can be cruel, though. The 55 point g…
119	Rafael Flores Jr.	PIT	C/1B	+UR	.250	.335	8	0	82
133	Connor Norby	COL	1B/2B/3B	+UR	.234	.308	7	8	90	Connor Norby still has huge contact issues but the guy can hit the ball hard in the air and plays for Colorado so stream away.
135	Henry Bolte	ATH	OF	+UR	.275	.317	10	20	93	Henry Bolte is leading off again and should get some games in Sacramento soon, if you need a streamer.
137	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	BAL	1B/3B	+UR	.262	.341	8	1	91
143	Alejandro Kirk	TOR	C	+UR	.280	.312	10	1	113
145	Tyler Stephenson	CIN	C	-33	.247	.331	15	0	94
146	Ryan Jeffers	MIN	C	-29	.262	.353	14	1	116
148	Andruw Monasterio	BOS	2B/SS	-26	.240	.293	6	4	89
TS	Bryce Eldridge	SF	1B	—	.269	.354	16	1	99	Bryce Eldridge (1B, SFG) — Power prospects can often take a while to really shine.
TS	Walker Jenkins	Min	OF	—	.089	.244	1	1	102	Walker Jenkins (OF, MIN) — Jenkins will get the call today after a white-hot month in the triple-A. He’s worth a scoop in most leagues, E…
UR	Emmanuel Rodriguez	Min	OF	—	.250	.501	1	0	94	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	James Wood	Wsh	OF	—	.268	.413	30	21	126	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Leo Bernal	StL	C	—	.327	.405	3	0	84	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Victor Mesa Jr.	TB	OF	—	.261	.334	13	9	88	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.

🔥 Heat Board

Hottest ACTIVE free-agent bats by contact quality, 9/1–9/14 · Heat = percentile vs all MLB bats over the same window (xwOBAcon 30 · EV 20 · Brl 20 · HH 15 · K 10 · BB 5) · min 15 BBE to qualify (smaller samples live in the HM rail) · IL excluded.

Lars Nootbaar

LF · Ari · 2.4% own · xwOBAcon .449 · EV 94.1 · Brl 8.7% · 23 BBE

▲ .138 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.247	7	31	31	2
L14	.385	1	4	2	0

Brett Baty

3B · NYM · 2.8% own · xwOBAcon .437 · EV 93.8 · Brl 20.0% · 20 BBE

▲ .090 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.228	10	50	48	5
L14	.318	2	10	3	0

Ty France

1B · SD · 14.1% own · xwOBAcon .442 · EV 92.9 · Brl 11.5% · 26 BBE

▲ .066 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.298	20	64	53	1
L14	.364	1	4	5	0

Francisco Alvarez

C · NYM · 8.8% own · xwOBAcon .486 · EV 95.4 · Brl 10.5% · 19 BBE

▼ .031 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.231	15	37	32	0
L14	.200	2	3	3	0

Jose Siri

CF · LAA · 0.1% own · xwOBAcon .427 · EV 93.5 · Brl 15.8% · 19 BBE

▲ .016 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.234	8	28	32	7
L14	.250	1	5	3	1

Nathaniel Lowe

1B · Cle · 1.5% own · xwOBAcon .469 · EV 91.9 · Brl 11.1% · 27 BBE

▼ .063 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.252	17	59	38	0
L14	.189	2	7	4	0

Mickey Gasper

C · Bos · 10.3% own · xwOBAcon .431 · EV 89.3 · Brl 15.4% · 26 BBE

▼ .053 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.265	9	23	25	0
L14	.212	3	3	7	0

Alex Freeland

3B · LAD · 0.3% own · xwOBAcon .377 · EV 91.6 · Brl 9.1% · 22 BBE

▼ .011 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.233	3	20	29	4
L14	.222	0	1	5	2

Eduardo Valencia

1B · Det · 2.7% own · xwOBAcon .465 · EV 90.5 · Brl 11.1% · 18 BBE

▲ .030 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.320	6	18	15	0
L14	.350	0	1	2	0

Thomas Saggese

2B · StL · 11.7% own · xwOBAcon .401 · EV 93.3 · Brl 7.7% · 39 BBE

▲ .102 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.268	4	12	23	4
L14	.370	3	8	12	3

Honorable mention · hottest L7 (9/8–9/14), not yet on the board · tiny samples — peek, don't trust

Connor Norby

3B · Col

.574 xwOBAcon

14 BBE · .381 L7

Michael Arroyo

2B · Sea

.549 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .444 L7

Jordan Lawlar

3B · Ari

.524 xwOBAcon

15 BBE · .353 L7

Taylor Trammell

CF · Hou

.434 xwOBAcon

10 BBE · .188 L7

Agustin Ramirez

C · Mia

.528 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .250 L7

Rafael Flores Jr.

1B · Pit

.412 xwOBAcon

17 BBE · .364 L7

🎯 FA Pitchers — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Andres Munoz

1Merrill KellySP · Ari · 20.7%HEATER

91st-pctl suppression on 33 BBE trusted sample; best contact-quality allowed in pool

Supp 91 · 33 BBE · ATC 12.0 IP · 1 W · 10 K · 4.60 · 1.36 · sim -0.1 pts

2Rico Garcia

RP · Bal · 10.7% · CATEGORY FIT

Closer role confirmed, SV upside real; only 14 BBE limits suppression trust but role is the story

Supp 79 · 14 BBE · ATC 4.0 IP · 0 W · 4 K · 4.22 · 1.30 · 1 SV · Closer · sim -0.1 pts

3Steven Cruz

RP · KC · 1.3% · CATEGORY FIT

Confirmed closer, 88th-pctl suppression on 11 BBE needs corroboration but role plus ratios acceptable

Supp 88 · 11 BBE · ATC 5.0 IP · 0 W · 4 K · 4.24 · 1.31 · 1 SV · Closer · sim -0.1 pts

4Ryan Zeferjahn

RP · ChC · 1.2% · UPSIDE

Confirmed closer role; suppression mediocre but saves opportunity justifies add at thin SV margin

Supp 45 · 13 BBE · ATC 4.0 IP · 0 W · 5 K · 4.08 · 1.33 · Closer · sim -0.1 pts

5Cody Bradford

SP · Tex · 1.1% · FLOOR

Two GS, clean 1.21 WHIP projection protects ratios; streamer rank 16 adds expert corroboration

Supp 28 · 31 BBE · ATC 12.0 IP · 1 W · 9 K · 4.36 · 1.21 · PL #16 · sim -0.1 pts

Passed on: Juan Morillo has the closer role but 16th-pctl suppression on 11 BBE with 0.451 xwOBAcon is a ratio poison pill MIZ cannot afford sitting at rank 1 ERA/WHIP.

⚾ Pitcher List Rankings

PL Top 100 SP · your arms + top FAs.

On Pitcher List · 6 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Pitcher	MLB	Chg	ERA	xERA	K/9	RoS	Pollack’s Take
1	Jacob Misiorowski	MIL	-	1.95	2.10	13.2	3.40	Like a base set Charizard, Misiorowski’s not gonna stop being dope.
9	Blake Snell	LAD	+7	1.91	2.10	12.2	3.31	#HotSnellSummer is in full swing.
10	Dylan Cease	TOR	-1	2.38	2.80	12.8	3.45	Like a perfect burger without the condiments to hit all your macros, Cease gives you everything except for a stable WHIP due to his infla…
20	Kyle Harrison	MIL	+8	3.98	3.86	10.9	4.19	With a dominant outing, he muted our concerns, but Harrison’s still displaying decreased velocity and not commanding as well as he did in…
22	Eury Pérez	MIA	-4	3.99	4.11	9.7	3.91	Pérez has the stuff to be an ace, but there’s polishing to do in the command and game plan departments to unlock his full potential.
29	Sean Burke	CHW	-4	3.47	3.83	9.7	4.43	Burke’s hot streak has come to a brief pause, but he’s still doing everything he’s supposed to with elite four-seamers upstairs and suppo…
30	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	-4	3.86	3.91	6.5	4.17	Baseball’s premier innings eater hasn’t ruined his appetite.
38	Jacob Lopez	ATH	+6	5.02	3.51	8.4	4.55	It’s the 2025 hot streak all over again. Enjoy the ride, ya’ll!
39	Dustin May	MIL	-	4.49	4.25	8.7	4.18	May got Singled Out in a disastrous performance, but his stuff is still dope, and his new situation is ideal. Higher win chance, great de…
40	Walbert Ureña	LAA	-	2.88	3.41	8.6	4.49	Armed with upper-90s heaters and one of the best changeups in baseball, Ureña has hit few speed bumps. If that developing sweeper becomes…
43	Andrew Painter	PHI	+UR	5.54	4.56	7.8	4.71	From off The List to inside the Top 50, Painter has stolen our hearts with an improved heater (97+ mph with 17-18″ iVB) and emphasis on r…
45	Peter Lambert	HOU	-4	3.71	3.69	8.7	4.61	Lambert’s stumble last time was a product of being Singled Out . He’s been reliable all year, but we should be recognizing that Holly is …
46	Jared Jones	PIT	-8	4.10	3.43	10.5	3.97	The stuff is top-tier, but he’s still shaking off the Tommy John surgery rust with his command and the tight leash the Pirates have on hi…
54	Joey Cantillo	CLE	-8	3.89	4.17	9.9	4.05	Efficiency is a problem, but Cantillo is doing everything we want. More curveballs, faster fastballs, and supportive cutters. Throw more …
56	Shane Bieber	TOR	+14	4.37	5.98	7.1	4.05	Bieber is back in business. His heater looked awesome in The Trop, and his offspeed pitches are being the CSW monsters they need to be to…
58	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	-	3.77	3.88	6.1	4.67	Despite what the line suggests, Pfaadt’s last start wasn’t an end to his Vargas Rule . It was a textbook Careful, Icarus with a three-run…

🔒 Closer Chart

Save targets · roles + regression flags.

BLUEEntrenched closer (highest leverage)GREENNext man up / committee pieceYELLOWSetup, 8th-inning leverageORANGESpeculative / lower priorityMAGENTAHigh-upside future / multi-inning

	Pitcher	Tm	Role	SV	SVHD	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K/9	Rtg / Own
Yours on the chart
—	Andrés Muñoz	Seattle Mariners	CL	27	27	55.0	4.25	1.18	3.36	14.1	5.0 · —
—	Louis Varland	Toronto Blue Jays	CL	33	38	75.0	1.32	1.01	2.33 ↑	11.2	5.0 · —
Top 5 FA closers (by team rating)
—	Rico Garcia	Baltimore Orioles	CL	9	27	63.7	2.97	0.94	2.98	9.2	4.0 · 11%
	Pete Fairbanks	Miami Marlins	CL	19	21	41.3	6.31	1.35	4.40 ↓	12.4	4.0 · 37%
—	Dylan Smith	San Francisco Giants	CL	4	11	34.3	3.15	1.40	3.86	10.7	4.0 · 0%
—	Steven Cruz HLR	Kansas City Royals	CL	7	12	55.7	4.04	1.24	4.02	9.5	3.5 · 1%
	Ryan Zeferjahn	Chicago Cubs	CL	6	19	66.0	4.09	1.29	3.24	12.3	3.0 · 1%
🌱 Green-tagged FA — upside / stash
	Michael Petersen	Miami Marlins	ST	1	26	60.3	3.13	1.11	3.34	10.7	4.0 · 2%
	Calvin Faucher	Miami Marlins	SO	3	20	63.3	3.55	1.31	3.54	9.5	4.0 · 1%

ERA cell: green <3.00 · red >4.50. xERA arrow: ↓ ERA likely to fall (buy) · ↑ ERA likely to rise (sell). Triggers when |xERA−ERA| ≥ 1.00.

✂️ Cut List

Drop priority · value, form, pedigree, role.

54	Royce Lewis 3B · Min low TV (0); injury status: DTD sim cost ~0	TV 0 Rd 13
39	Kyle Harrison SP · Mil low TV (28); UFDA — easy to drop; BUT top-tier keeper sim cost ~0	TV 28 UFDA
22	Sandy Alcantara SP · Mia mid TV (58); BUT solid keeper sim cost ~0	TV 58 Rd 14
14	Joe Ryan SP · Min BUT high-pedigree (Rd 5) sim cost ~0	TV 71 Rd 5

Higher score = drop sooner — top 5 by score, and only 8+ reaches the board, so the number has no ceiling and is only comparable within this list. The sim line is a roto-sim marginal (cut vs. keep on one shared set of draws), not a measured cost. Pedigree + named closers shielded.

🌱 Stash List

PL's top prospects · grab them cheap.

Hitters

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 24: Top 10 Hitting Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + PSS + PFV + age + 40-man + path.

16 available

M. Arroyo

SS · SEA · AAA · 21 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

19·18·.284

S. Thompson

OF · COL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

15·20·.312

J. Tibbs III

OF · LAD · AAA · 23 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

29·10·.292

H. Mendez

OF · MIN · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

12·5·.281

M. Anderson

2B · DET · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

17·5·.300

R. Clifford

1B · NYM · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

17·8·.178

C. Ingle

C · CLE · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

20·2·.284

Z. Hope

OF · DET · AA · 21 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

29·26·.287

S. King

SS/2B/3B · WSN · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

19·15·.308

R. Ward

LF · LAD · AAA · 28 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

21·8·.244

C. Cannarella

OF · MIA · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

15·21·.330

J. Made

SS · MIL · AA · 19 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

14·37·.271

J. Long

1B · CHC · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

16·3·.274

S. Walcott

3B/SS · TEX · AA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

10·12·.329

A. Miller

SS · PHI · AA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

0·1·.333

D. Crisantes

2B/3B · ARI · AAA · 21 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

9·0·.290

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

Pitchers

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 24: Top 10 Pitching Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + L3 quality + FV + age + 40-man + path.

26 available

O. Murphy

SP · ATL · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

127K·3.63

T. Johnson

SP · TBR · AAA · 24 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

88K·3.06

B. Hopkins

SP · TBR · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

123K·5.31

H. Smith

SP · CHW · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

August 1st

Szn

119K·3.25

M. Ullola

SP · HOU · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

100K·4.12

L. Perales

SP · WSN · AAA · 23 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

106K·4.18

A. Kelly

SP · PIT · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

77K·4.47

C. Seymour

SP · SFG · AAA · 27 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

89K·4.15

K. Curtis

SP · PIT · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

115K·4.93

R. Snelling

SP · MIA · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

46K·2.38

B. Mautz

SP · STL · AAA · 24 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

100K·4.28

D. Davalillo

SP · TEX · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

106K·4.62

J. Wenninger

SP · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

122K·4.21

M. Bratt

SP · ARI · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

84K·3.88

J. Ritchie

SP · ATL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

142K·3.72

G. Wood

SP · PHI · AA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

'26

Szn

139K·4.36

T. Bremner

SP · LAA · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

100K·4.33

E. Rodriguez

SP · NYY · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

123K·3.09

T. McDougal

SP · CHW · AAA · 23 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

50K·5.09

R. Ryan

SP · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

45K·4.23

B. Garrett

SP · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

June 1st

Szn

114K·3.76

C. Dana

SP · LAA · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

85K·5.52

R. Sloan

SP · SEA · AA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

128K·3.73

C. Crow

SP · MIL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

104K·4.01

T. Gibson

SP · BAL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

107K·5.26

L. Braun

SP · ATL · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

112K·4.18

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

🔭 13 not a 2026 factor — Anthony Eyanson · Jackson Ferris · Liam Doyle · Christian Zazueta · Jackson Wolf · Jurrangelo Cijntje · Jamie Arnold · Bryce Mayer · Daniel Eagen · Jonathan Santucci · Joseph Dzierwa · Jaxon Wiggins · Karson Milbrandt

💼 Trades

Buy-low targets · league trade history.

Top Buy-Lows

Rebound candidates · suggested offers.

Hitters

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Cal Raleigh C · Sea · KNIG · TKHOO +1.8σ buy-low · C — modest fit · BA 0.181 / xBA 0.190 · xwOBA 0.314	85%	128 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B + Zach Neto SS · two-piece package (TV 95 vs target 95)
📈 BUY-LOW	Mike Trout OF · LAA · KNIG · TKHOO +1.3σ buy-low · OF — fits a need · BA 0.244 / xBA 0.253 · xwOBA 0.378	90%	126 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Joe Ryan SP · comparable value (TV 71 vs target 77)
↑ mild buy	Yordan Alvarez OF · Hou · PEYT · simplejack2k9 +0.9σ buy-low · OF — fits a need · BA 0.310 / xBA 0.319 · xwOBA 0.443	100%	165 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Kyle Schwarber DH · comparable value (TV 100 vs target 100)
📈 BUY-LOW	Juan Soto RF · NYM · GARR · jregarris +1.2σ buy-low · RF — modest fit · BA 0.273 / xBA 0.292 · xwOBA 0.413	100%	158 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Kyle Schwarber DH · comparable value (TV 100 vs target 100)
📈 BUY-LOW	Munetaka Murakami 3B · ChW · GARR · jregarris +1.9σ buy-low · 3B · BA 0.204 / xBA 0.199 · xwOBA 0.342	83%	120 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Sandy Alcantara SP · comparable value (TV 58 vs target 62)
📈 BUY-LOW	Heriberto Hernandez LF · Mia · FRAN · francisw789 +1.3σ buy-low · LF — modest fit · BA 0.226 / xBA 0.244 · xwOBA 0.351	9%	99 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Cole Carrigg CF + Henry Bolte RF · two-piece package (TV 26 vs target 23)
📈 BUY-LOW	Corey Seager SS · Tex · PEYT · simplejack2k9 +1.3σ buy-low · SS · BA 0.231 / xBA 0.251 · xwOBA 0.353	62%	125 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Eury Perez SP · comparable value (TV 50 vs target 52)
📈 BUY-LOW	JJ Bleday CF · Cin · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.3σ buy-low · CF — modest fit · BA 0.214 / xBA 0.239 · xwOBA 0.342	20%	100 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Kyle Harrison SP · comparable value (TV 28 vs target 26)
↑ mild buy	Taylor Ward LF · Sea · GoOs · My Best Guys +0.7σ buy-low · LF — modest fit · BA 0.225 / xBA 0.241 · xwOBA 0.335	56%	119 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Sandy Alcantara SP · comparable value (TV 58 vs target 60)
↑ mild buy	Samuel Basallo C · Bal · RAGE · glhoward40 +0.8σ buy-low · C — modest fit · BA 0.224 / xBA 0.234 · xwOBA 0.319	22%	102 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Kyle Harrison SP · comparable value (TV 28 vs target 31)

Pitchers

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Kodai Senga SP · NYM · KRTZ · FratSkins +1.1σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 7.02 vs xERA 5.11	11%	3.88 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Cole Carrigg CF · comparable value (TV 11 vs target 14)
↑ mild buy	Kade Anderson SP · Sea · RAGE · glhoward40 +0.7σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 5.33 vs xERA 4.25	21%	4.57 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Cole Carrigg CF · comparable value (TV 11 vs target 16)

League History

Completed trades · frozen grade at the deal + live grade now.

Side	Sent	At deal	Now	Trend
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Andy Pages	A- +7	A+ +45	▲ up
Camp MVP	Pete Crow-Armstrong	C -7	F -45	▼ down
Team Knighton ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Team Knighton	Matthew Boyd	F -22	F -23
Camp MVP	Kenley Jansen	A+ +22	A+ +23
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Worst2First 2026-08-10
Miz-waukee’s Best	Charlie Condon, Payton Tolle	A+ +50	A+ +32	▼ down
Worst2First	Dylan Cease	F -50	F -32	▲ up
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Dorn and Associates LLC 2026-08-05
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Travis Bazzana, George Lombard Jr., Nolan McLean	A+ +144	A+ +106	▼ down
Dorn and Associates LLC	Jackson Chourio, Jhoan Duran, Brice Turang, David Bednar	F -144	F -106	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-07-31
Miz-waukee’s Best	Samuel Basallo, Kade Anderson	A- +8	A+ +33	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine	Blake Snell	C -8	F -33	▼ down
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Team Knighton 2026-07-23
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Jo Adell, Jacob deGrom	F -49	F -64	▼ down
Team Knighton	Trea Turner	A+ +49	A+ +64	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine ⇄ Miz-waukee’s Best 2026-07-19
Ramirez Against the Machine	Sandy Alcantara	F -42	F -29	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best	Josh Jung	A+ +42	A+ +29	▼ down
I need Buck Showalter ⇄ Hit the Damn Ball You Bums 2026-06-19
I need Buck Showalter	Nasim Nunez	A+ +28	A +11	▼ down
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Justin Wrobleski	F -28	D -11	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ The Boys of Summer 2026-06-12
Miz-waukee’s Best	Chandler Simpson	A +10	A- +7	▼ down
The Boys of Summer	$30 FAAB	D -10	C -7	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-05-01
Miz-waukee’s Best	Kenley Jansen	—	A- +7
Camp MVP	$30 FAAB	A- +3	C -7	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-04-22
Miz-waukee’s Best	Nathan Eovaldi, $70 FAAB	—	F -41
Ramirez Against the Machine	Jac Caglianone	A+ +60	A+ +41	▼ down

🔻 Sell-High — My Roster

Surface line outrunning the underlying skill — trade-value peaks. σ = his surface-stat z-score minus his Statcast-skill z-score, both against the league reference for his side — bigger σ = further ahead of the skill. Pair with Buy-Low Targets.

Verdict	Player	Own	Surface vs expected	Contact	2027 keeper
↓ SHOP	Yandy Diaz 1B · TB 0.67σ sell-high · 1B · BA 0.301 / xBA 0.285 · xwOBA 0.350 — test the market, don't force it	93%	BA 0.301 / xBA 0.285 +.016 wOBA 0.360 / xwOBA 0.350 +.010	HH 48.4% · Brl/PA 5.5%	7th · +1 rd vs mkt
↓ SHOP	Cole Carrigg CF · Col 0.59σ sell-high · CF · BA 0.261 / xBA 0.245 · xwOBA 0.309 — test the market, don't force it	12%	BA 0.261 / xBA 0.245 +.016 wOBA 0.335 / xwOBA 0.309 +.026	HH 34.6% · Brl/PA 3.4%	25th · +5 rds vs mkt
↓ SHOP	Henry Bolte RF · Oak 0.57σ sell-high · RF · BA 0.275 / xBA 0.246 · xwOBA 0.317 — test the market, don't force it	12%	BA 0.275 / xBA 0.246 +.029 wOBA 0.339 / xwOBA 0.317 +.022	HH 47.6% · Brl/PA 4.5%	25th · +5 rds vs mkt

👥 Your Roster

Your roster · news + buy/sell signals.

News (last 24h)

Player news · last 24h.

Leo Bernal Cardinals hold on for a 2-1 win over the Giants
Tue 09-15 04:39 AM
Cardinals hold on for a 2-1 win over the Giants
Kyle Harrison Struggles in first relief appearance
Tue 09-15 12:00 AM
Harrison failed to record an out and was charged with four earned runs on four hits in a relief appearance in Saturday's 13-9 win over the Reds.

Leverage Buys/Sells

Buy/sell windows · surface vs. underlying.

Hitters

Player	Pos	MLB	BA	xBA	wOBA	xwOBA	Brl%	Own%	Signal
James Wood	LF	Wsh	0.268	0.273	0.392	0.413	100.0	99.0	📈 BUY-LOW
Kyle Schwarber	DH	Phi	0.238	0.240	0.371	0.365	99.0	99.5	📈 BUY-LOW
Miguel Vargas	3B	ChW	0.249	0.265	0.361	0.380	89.0	94.5	📈 BUY-LOW
Bryce Eldridge	1B	SF	0.269	0.258	0.357	0.354	74.0	14.3	fair
Zach Neto	SS	LAA	0.242	0.215	0.334	0.310	75.0	60.9	fair
Jac Caglianone	RF	KC	0.281	0.279	0.354	0.355	90.0	45.4	fair
Randy Arozarena	LF	Sea	0.278	0.258	0.373	0.347	52.0	94.0	fair
Cole Carrigg	CF	Col	0.261	0.245	0.335	0.309	23.0	11.6	↓ mild fade
Yandy Diaz	1B	TB	0.301	0.285	0.360	0.350	46.0	92.5	↓ mild fade
Walker Jenkins	CF	Min	0.089	0.152	0.200	0.244	—	4.0	fair
Henry Bolte	RF	Oak	0.275	0.246	0.339	0.317	48.0	11.5	↓ mild fade
Kaelen Culpepper DTD	SS	Min	0.283	0.249	0.335	0.304	—	4.5	fair
Royce Lewis DTD	3B	Min	0.230	0.241	0.301	0.312	72.0	11.9	↑ mild buy
Emmanuel Rodriguez	CF	Min	0.250	0.342	0.378	0.501	37.5	-1.0	—
Leo Bernal	C	StL	0.327	0.323	0.402	0.405	—	3.8	fair
Victor Mesa Jr.	LF	TB	0.261	0.251	0.364	0.334	—	15.8	fair

Pitchers

Pitcher	Pos	MLB	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K-BB%	xwOBA-a	Brl%-a	Own%	Signal
Blake Snell	SP	LAD	37.7	1.91	1.09	2.10	22.7	0.225	1.2	90.7	↑ mild buy
Andres Munoz	RP	Sea	55.0	4.25	1.18	3.36	27.4	0.284	9.2	80.1	↑ mild buy
Joe Ryan	SP	Min	133.7	4.24	1.17	3.67	20.7	0.296	10.2	87.3	fair
Jacob Misiorowski	SP	Mil	161.3	1.95	0.80	2.10	31.7	0.225	3.9	99.3	fair
Kyle Harrison	SP	Mil	110.7	3.98	1.31	3.86	21.3	0.303	8.6	47.6	fair
Sandy Alcantara	SP	Mia	205.0	3.86	1.23	3.91	10.7	0.305	5.6	83.6	fair
Dylan Cease	SP	Tor	166.3	2.38	1.06	2.80	24.6	0.260	5.3	99.3	fair
Eury Perez	SP	Mia	144.3	3.99	1.24	4.11	15.1	0.312	10.2	68.4	fair
Louis Varland	RP	Tor	75.0	1.32	1.01	2.33	23.9	0.237	3.8	85.7	fair

📰 MLB News — Top Fantasy Stories

🔒 Keepers — 2027 Slate

Peter's model (additive): rounds-saved (cost arbitrage spine) + current skill + career-grade pedigree + sample stability + Statcast over/under-performance trend, with age-decline (33+), closer/RP, and top-30 talent adjustments. Heavy on bargain-hunting.
Claude's model (multiplicative dynasty index): EFV(2027) = (3 + skill + upside) × age_mult × pos_mult; score = EFV − cost_replacement − mookie-lock. Compounds age curve and position scarcity.
Sorted by consensus rank (average of both models). MLB-inactive players surfaced in 🚑 Return Watch below.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict	Notes
1.5	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	25th	#1 (+26.3)	#2 (+29.9)	S · $30	UFDA
1.5	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	21st	#2 (+24.5)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51	UFDA-G FV 55
3.5	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	22nd	#3 (+17.5)	#4 (+15.6)	A · $16
4.5	Bryce Eldridge	1B · 20yo	25th	#4 (+16.1)	#5 (+14.4)	A · $14	UFDA FV 55
4.5	Zach Neto	SS · 25yo	10th	#6 (+13.9)	#3 (+16.1)	A · $16
5.5	Henry Bolte	RF · 21yo	25th	#5 (+14.9)	#6 (+14.4)	A · $14	UFDA FV 40
7.5	Eury Perez	SP · 23yo	20th	#7 (+13.6)	#8 (+11.2)	A · $11	UFDA-G
7.5	Dylan Cease	SP · 30yo	4th	#8 (+12.0)	#7 (+11.7)	A · $12

NEW UFDA cap: Peter 3/3 · Claude 3/3 · BOTH = top 8 in both models. Peter only = his model values cost surplus more; Claude only = mine values projection / position scarcity more.

🚑 Return watch — would be keeper-eligible if they get MLB action this year. Rank shown is hypothetical (where they'd slot if eligible).

Player	Pos · Age	Cost	Peter (if elig.)	Claude (if elig.)
Emmanuel Rodriguez	CF · 22yo	25th	#13 (+3.9)	#11 (+5.4)

Updated Tue Sep 15 · 1:04 PM ET

🌍 League-Wide Top Keepers

Top 10 keepers · all 12 teams · both models. Yours in green.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	Team	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict
1.5	Jesus Luzardo	SP · 28yo	KNIG	21st	#1 (+29.1)	#2 (+42.1)	S · $42
2.5	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	MIZ	21st	#4 (+24.5)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51
3.5	Jordan Walker	RF · 24yo	GARR	25th	#2 (+27.0)	#5 (+38.7)	S · $39
4.5	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	MIZ	25th	#3 (+26.3)	#6 (+29.9)	S · $30
4.5	Bryan Baker	RP · 31yo	DORN	25th	#5 (+24.2)	#4 (+38.7)	S · $39
6.5	Cam Schlittler	SP · 24yo	KRTZ	19th	#10 (+19.7)	#3 (+40.8)	S · $41
8.5	Payton Tolle	SP · 22yo	FRST	25th	#6 (+23.4)	— (+19.8)	S · $20
9.0	Ben Rice	1B · 27yo	DORN	20th	#7 (+22.3)	— (+15.2)	A · $15
9.0	Gavin Williams	SP · 26yo	THAR	11th	— (+13.9)	#7 (+23.6)	S · $24
9.5	Jose Soriano	SP · 27yo	BLOB	25th	#8 (+21.3)	— (+18.5)	S · $18
9.5	Junior Caminero	3B · 22yo	RAGE	5th	— (+12.3)	#8 (+23.3)	S · $23
10.0	Logan Henderson	SP · 23yo	PEYT	25th	#9 (+20.1)	— (+15.8)	A · $16
10.0	Riley O'Brien	RP · 31yo	THAR	17th	— (+12.3)	#9 (+21.9)	S · $22
10.5	Cristopher Sanchez	SP · 29yo	PEYT	9th	— (+17.4)	#10 (+21.1)	S · $21

Updated Tue Sep 15 · 1:04 PM ET

🏚️ Keeper Cupboards

Every team's six best keepers · shade = dual-model consensus value. Cupboard score weights the top four heavily (the slots that get kept), keepers 5–8 taper. 100 = league's best cupboard.

Team	K1	K2	K3	K4	K5	K6	Cupboard
1MIZ	VargasR25	MisiorowskiR21	VarlandR22	EldridgeR25	NetoR10	BolteR25	100
2DORN	BakerR25	RiceR20	McLeanR20	BazzanaR25	AnthonyR18	LaraR25	78
3KNIG	LuzardoR21	deGromR13	JensenR20	MartinezR25	AbreuR15	RodriguezR25	73
4FRAN	McCarthyR25	LatzR25	CavalliR21	AntonacciR25	BurnsR5	LoweR8	65
5KRTZ	SchlittlerR19	BengeR25	SanojaR25	McGonigleR17	StewartR10	IIR5	61
6THAR	WilliamsR11	RasmussenR8	O'BrienR17	KeaschallR21	Jr.R16	MarshR25	57
7PEYT	HendersonR25	SanchezR9	WooR8	ClarkR22	CameronR18	CruzR1	57
8GoOs	GriffinR25	BradleyR25	GoodmanR21	BaldwinR14	BurlesonR9	WachaR25	55
9GARR	WalkerR25	MessickR18	CanzoneR25	GrayR7	DeLauterR14	DinglerR22	53
10FRST	TolleR25	RouppR25	WheelerR8	MuncyR18	SkubalR1	RumfieldR25	50
11RAGE ▼ thin	EwingR25	CamineroR5	JonesR25	BasalloR19	HerreraR20	ImanagaR9	47
12BLOB ▼ thin	SorianoR25	LopezR20	ScottR25	TaylorR25	SaleR1	SuarezR12	45

The bottom two rows are your trade marks — thin cupboards pay up for keepable pieces.

data: snap 5h · BP 21d · PL 21d · HL 18d · PSS 2h · BR 0h · FG 0h · proj 2h · closer 0h · oyster 0h · AAA-sc 14h · cookie ok