Miz-waukee’s Best — The Brandon League

Last updated Saturday, September 19 · 09:04 AM ET

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☕ Morning Briefing

🏆 MIZ sits at 1st overall with 104.0 roto points, a comfortable 13.5-point cushion over Phil Swift's Flex Seal — but two categories need attention: FRST is within 0.00 ERA of you, and you're just 0.001 AVG behind THAR, a one-roto-point swing waiting to happen.

⚡ Your guys put up a big night across the board. Miguel Vargas went 2-for-5 with a homer and 3 RBI, Connor Norby went 3-for-4 with a run, RBI, steal, and walk, and Cole Carrigg matched him hit-for-hit at 3-for-5 with 2 steals — all three of those lines directly help that AVG gap on THAR. Walker Jenkins (MLB Pipeline #13, RI 94) continued to produce at the big-league level, going 3-for-4 with a homer and RBI vs. the Angels. And Andres Munoz locked down a save with 2 strikeouts in a clean inning.

📋 Two ERA-category notes worth flagging: Logan Webb (owned by GoOs) is headed to the 15-day IL with a right middle finger blister, and Trevor Larnach (owned by THAR) landed on the 10-day IL — Larnach's absence could subtly soften THAR's AVG, giving you a window to close that 0.001 gap. Make sure Joe Ryan and Eury Perez are active today to protect the ERA edge.

📰 The closer landscape had some movement: Ben Joyce (Angels, available FA) saw his role-security rating slip to uncertain, worth monitoring if you need saves depth. Among the wave of call-ups, Ronny Mauricio (Mets), Cade Povich (Orioles), and César Prieto (Cardinals) are the names most likely to see real playing time down the stretch in a 5x5 context. Also of note: Ty France, dropped by your closest rival Phil Swift's Flex Seal, carries a +0.8σ underlying skill signal — he's a free agent if you have a roster spot to work with.

ELIGIBILITYK. Schwarber 1B 8/10T. Saggese 3B 7/10

Your standing

1stof 12

104.0 roto pts +13.5 clear of 2nd

+1.0 pts vs last update

Top Gaps

W (7.0)

categories below mid-pack

Score change since last update

ERA +1.0

🎯 Category Pressure

Category ranks vs. the league.

Rank →

Δ to #1

1023

1106

🥇

292

326

🥇

RBI

972

1005

🥇

159

161

175

212

+51

AVG

.254

.255

.256

.260

+0.005

1292

1303

1476

+173

+14

104

+18

ERA

3.45

🥇

WHIP

1.18

1.17

1.16

−0.01

📅 Yesterday's MIZ Box Scores (2026-09-18)

Loading box scores…

🏥 IL Rehab Tracker

IL players · rehab game logs.

On the IL, no rehab games yet: Kaelen Culpepper (IL10), Spencer Schwellenbach (IL60 · watch).

📊 League Activity (last 24h)

All adds, drops, and trades across the 12 teams.

Team	Move
Phil Mickeltits	− Carson Kelly
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	+ Dedniel Nunez \| − Brett Baty
Phil Swift's Flex Seal	+ Cole Young \| − Ty France
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	+ Ray Kerr \| − Richie Palacios
Miz-waukee’s Best	+ Connor Norby \| − Royce Lewis
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	+ Andrew Painter \| − Walbert Urena
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	+ Rico Garcia \| − Ben Joyce
Phil Swift's Flex Seal	+ Dustin May \| − Xander Bogaerts
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	+ Ryan Zeferjahn \| − Joshua Baez

🏆 League Standings

Current roto points · 10,000-sim projected finish. FAAB = acquisition budget remaining.

100.0% to win the league · proj finish 1.0 · 102.8 roto pts

#	Team	Pts	FAAB	Win%	Proj Pts	Range	Proj Rk
1	MIZ Miz-waukee’s Best	104.0	$0	100.0%	102.8	101–105	1.0
2	PEYT Phil Swift's Flex Seal	90.5	$19	0.0%	89.7	88–92	2.1
3	KRTZ Photogenic Nick Kurtz	86.0	$10	0.0%	87.8	86–89	2.8
4	FRAN Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	80.5	$24	0.0%	81.0	79–83	4.0
5	BLOB Camp MVP	67.5	$168	0.0%	68.6	66–71	5.0
6	THAR Phil Mickeltits	61.5	$176	0.0%	61.8	59–64	6.2
7	GoOs I need Buck Showalter	61.5	$170	0.0%	60.2	58–62	6.7
8	KNIG Team Knighton	59.0	$132	0.0%	57.7	56–59	7.9
9	FRST Worst2First	46.5	$154	0.0%	47.4	46–50	9.2
10	DORN Dorn and Associates LLC	45.0	$89	0.0%	44.5	43–46	10.8
11	GARR The Boys of Summer	44.5	$155	0.0%	46.4	45–48	9.7
12	RAGE Ramirez Against the Machine	33.5	$163	0.0%	32.0	30–34	12.0

10,000 sims · fixed seed · noise CV talent 0.12 / idio 0.06 / team-cat 0.08 · assumes ATC rest-of-season rates

Your categories · projected roto points

R 12.0HR 12.0RBI 12.0SB 8.7AVG 8.9W 7.1SV 9.0K 10.8ERA 11.3WHIP 11.0

Winnable — push here: SB, AVG, W, SV.

🚨 Today's Streaming Board

172 of 200 GS · should be 191 · 19 behindBehind pace — stream aggressively

028 left · ~24.5/wk to cap · proj 180200

⏳ BP's post is late — Verdict pill is running on our score + Pitcher List for now (BP joins the top-2 once it posts).

Your starters + top FA streamers

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Joe Ryan	@ LAA	START	—	5.3	#5	Believes recent struggles misleading; Angels a soft matchup.
Eury Perez	@ SD	DART	—	3.9	#17	Underwhelming despite elite raw stuff; no explanation found.
Freddy Peralta	vs BOS	START	—	6.7	#10	Improved four-seamer and changeup feel; trending toward groove.
Christian Scott	vs PHI	START	—	6.8	#12	Four-seamer solid; secondary arsenal concerning.
Jackson Jobe	@ CWS	START	—	5.4	#8	Career-best outing last time; breaking ball improvement encouraging.
Sean Burke	vs DET	STARTopener⚠ opener	—	5.0	#11	Opener expected again; slider feel needed, curveball is working.
Andrew Alvarez	@ STL	START	—	6.1	#15	Curveball intriguing, slider uncertain, favorable matchup saves it.
Brandon Pfaadt	vs NYY	DART	—	4.5	#16	Judge injury could lift tier; low strikeout upside regardless.
Michael McGreevy	vs WSH	DART	—	3.4	#14	Velocity uptick and polish gains noted.
Jacob Lopez	@ CLE	DART	—	5.2	#20	Fading fast from peak form; wants to drop him.
Robert Gasser	@ BAL	DART	—	5.7	#24	Interesting pitches but not enough for lineup consideration.
Hayden Wesneski	vs ATL	SIT	—	5.7	#26	Command-dependent profile; lacks conviction in the approach.

Your staff: 3.45 ERA / 1.17 WHIP · GS 172/200 — Behind pace — stream aggressively. Verdict = the best 2 of BP · our score · Pitcher List, averaged (low outlier dropped); before BP posts it's our score + PL. ⚠ = our matchup score dissented — eyeball that one. Tap a MIZ score for the reasoning.

Tomorrow · 2 of yours + top 5 FA · Sun 9/20 · BP not out yet, so pill = our score + Pitcher List

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Jacob Misiorowski	@ BAL	START	—	6.5	—	average BAL lineup, strong skills, hitter park
Sandy Alcantara	@ SD	SIT	—	3.7	—	average SD lineup, shaky recent form
Jonah Tong	vs PHI	START⚠ opener	—	6.7	—	average PHI lineup, hot recent form, strong skills
Davis Martin	vs DET	DART	—	5.3	—	tough DET lineup, hot recent form, weak skills
Dean Kremer	@ LAA	DART	—	5.3	—	soft LAA lineup
Corbin Burnes	vs NYY	DART	—	5.0	—	average NYY lineup, strong skills, hitter park
Quinn Mathews	vs WSH	DART	—	5.0	—	tough WSH lineup, hot recent form, strong skills

Quinn Mathewsvs WSH LHP5.0

WSH off .776 OPS · tough matchupskill 75 pctlL21: 2.04 ERA / 1.19 WHIPL14 contact -0.1 (.362 xwOBAcon-against, 34 BBE)~5.7 IP/startexp 3.19 ERA ↓ helps (you 3.45)exp 1.32 WHIP ↑ hurts (you 1.17)GS 172/200 · Behind pace — stream aggressively

matchup

skill

form

win

park

📼 Streamer Report Card

Does the Streaming Board actually work? Every pick it showed, frozen at pick time and graded off the real box score. Two scoreboards below: first our own calls — the Verdict ladder and MIZ (our matchup score, 0–10) — then the outside lists behind them, BP (RelieverRecon's daily BP Streamers post) and PL (Pitcher List's tier ranking). Grades are recomputed from raw lines on every build — the rubric can change, the history follows.

Last 30d · 335 starts graded over 29 days · GOOD+ 43% · BLOWUP 19% · agg ERA 4.46 · WHIP 1.39 · 4.4 K/start · 372 picks logged, 24 never started, 13 awaiting a box score — not graded

Grade mix · all 335 graded starts

GEM 51 GOOD 94 OK 128 BLOWUP 62

GEM6+ IP, ≤1 ER · or 6+ IP, 8+ K, ≤2 ERGOODquality start (6+ IP, ≤3 ER) · or 5+ IP, ≤2 EROKheld the line without earning GOODBLOWUP5+ ER · or under 4 IP with 4+ ERGOOD+ = GEM + GOOD. A pick whose starter never took the ball grades to nothing and leaves every rate below.

Cohort	n	GOOD+	BLOWUP	ERA
Q1 — Do our own calls work? · Verdict ladder + MIZ bands · live board rows only, nothing backfilled
Verdict · AUTO START	20	60%	20%	4.04
Verdict · START	46	54%	15%	4.38
Verdict · DART	80	44%	20%	4.63
Verdict · SIT	189	39%	19%	4.46
MIZ ≥ 5.0	102	53%	23%	4.39
MIZ 3.5–4.9	135	39%	18%	4.65
MIZ < 3.5	79	41%	16%	4.46
All live board picks	335	43%	19%	4.46
Q1 read — GOOD+ falls 60% · 54% · 44% · 39% down the rungs, but BLOWUP does not rise with it, and MIZ does not sort: 53% · 39% · 41% from the top band down.
Q2 — Which outside list earns the weight? · BP and PL graded on their own published lists · mostly rebuilt from git
PL · Auto Start	21	52%	24%	4.82
PL · Probably Start	50	52%	14%	4.16
PL · Questionable Start	93	51%	18%	4.27
PL · Do Not Start	144	37%	19%	4.71
BP · Auto thin	3	67%	0%	3.78
BP · Likely	14	57%	21%	4.17
All graded picks	335	43%	19%	4.46
Q2 read — against the 43% all-picks baseline, PL's top tiers clear it (52% · 52%) and BP's top tiers are too thin to call (67% · 57% on n=3 · n=14).

Rows are overlapping lenses on the same picks, not a partition — one start can be a PL Auto Start and a Verdict SIT at once, so they never sum to the headline; each group is read against its own baseline row.

⚠ Dissent check — n=4, too thin to read. Splits are picks the board started over our MIZ sit-call (vs 43% for all live picks).

Calibration — do our numbers mean anything? · full season, 2026-06-29→2026-09-18 · 1107 graded picks · MIZ on 559, BP on 230, Verdict on 588

The ladder above asks whether the tiers sort. This asks the harder question: is the number a probability — when the board says 7, do 70% of those starts come back GOOD+? Bins are equal-count and merge until every one clears n=15; the walk-forward rows are scored against a model that only ever saw earlier days.

Score bin	n	mean	GOOD+	95% CI
MIZ score → P(GOOD+) · our matchup score, 0–10 · live rows only · n=559
MIZ 0.5–3.3	131	2.7	40%	32%–49%
MIZ 3.4–4.0	100	3.7	43%	34%–53%
MIZ 4.1–4.8	116	4.4	49%	40%–58%
MIZ 4.9–5.6	108	5.2	50%	41%–59%
MIZ 5.7–8.9	104	6.4	56%	46%–65%
All MIZ-scored picks	559	—	47%	—
BP score → P(GOOD+) · RelieverRecon's published rating · includes git-backfilled rows · n=230
BP 4.6–6.6	48	6.1	35%	23%–50%
BP 6.7–7.3	44	7.0	52%	38%–66%
BP 7.4–7.7	47	7.5	45%	31%–59%
BP 7.8–8.4	47	8.1	47%	33%–61%
BP 8.5–10.0	44	9.1	43%	30%–58%
All BP-scored picks	230	—	44%	—
Verdict tier → P(GOOD+) · the consensus call itself · live rows only
AUTO START	36	—	64%	48%–78%
START	76	—	55%	44%–66%
DART	155	—	46%	39%–54%
SIT	321	—	44%	38%–49%

Out-of-sample	n	value	vs
Walk-forward probability · logistic on MIZ, refit daily on earlier days only · from 2026-08-05 · 44 days
Brier — our probability	495	0.249	lower is better
Brier — flat base rate to date	495	0.253	we win by 0.003
Brier — verdict-tier history	495	0.254	we win by 0.004
Log loss — our probability	495	0.692	lower is better
ECE — our probability	495	0.070	5 equal-count bins
ECE bins · predicted p vs what actually happened
said 31%–45%	100	42%	off by 1%
said 45%–49%	98	37%	off by 11%
said 49%–55%	99	44%	off by 7%
said 55%–59%	100	48%	off by 9%
said 59%–74%	98	56%	off by 7%
Verdict — poor: ECE 0.070 over n=495 out-of-sample picks (≤0.03 well calibrated · ≤0.07 usable with caveats); edges the flat base rate on Brier (0.249 vs 0.253, a thin margin; log-loss ~coin-flip).

🔥 Today's Hitter Streamers

Top 10 FA bats for today's slate · score = split vs SP hand (35%) + SP softness (35%) + bat quality (15%) + trailing 15 days (10%) + park (5%) · facing an elite arm fades the score hard (feast on weak pitchers).

#	Hitter	Matchup	Why	Legs	Score
1	AUTO STARTTyrone TaylorCF · 1% own	@ CIN · Lodolo LHP	szn .310 xwOBAL14 contact -5.0 (.206 xwOBAcon, 13 BBE)usually bats 4th (×1.05)fills OF needbeats 5 of 6 eligible startersLodolo .377 allowed · soft SP0.933 OPS vs LHP (101 AB)CIN plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	80
2	AUTO STARTJoc PedersonDH · 2% own	vs TOR · Soriano RHP	szn .343 xwOBAL14 contact +3.5 (.447 xwOBAcon, 12 BBE)DTD — check lineupusually bats 1st (×1.12)beats 1 of 1 eligible startersSoriano .322 allowed · avg SP0.834 OPS vs RHP (343 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	70
3	AUTO STARTMatt Shaw3B · 2% own	@ CIN · Lodolo LHP	szn .305 xwOBAusually bats 7th (×0.95)fills OF needbeats 9 of 10 eligible startersLodolo .377 allowed · soft SP0.859 OPS vs LHP (75 AB)CIN plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	70
4	AUTO STARTChristian Encarnacion-Strand1B · 4% own	vs MIL · Gasser LHP	szn .342 xwOBAL15: 0.868 OPS (52 PA)L14 contact +1.4 (.400 xwOBAcon, 27 BBE)usually bats 6th (×0.98)beats 4 of 4 eligible startersGasser .315 allowed · avg SP1.077 OPS vs LHP (64 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	70
5	AUTO STARTRafael Flores Jr.1B · 2% own	vs KC · Cameron LHP	szn .341 xwOBAL15: 1.016 OPS (38 PA)L14 contact +4.4 (.467 xwOBAcon, 28 BBE)usually bats 4th (×1.05)beats 4 of 4 eligible startersCameron .306 allowed · avg SP0.889 OPS vs LHP (62 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	70
6	AUTO STARTCarson KellyC · 11% own	@ CIN · Lodolo LHP	szn .313 xwOBAL15: 0.742 OPS (37 PA)L14 contact +0.7 (.385 xwOBAcon, 25 BBE)usually bats 9th (×0.90)beats 2 of 2 eligible startersLodolo .377 allowed · soft SP0.891 OPS vs LHP (118 AB)CIN plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	69
7	AUTO STARTMickey GasperC · 9% own	@ TB · Peralta RHP	szn .369 xwOBAL15: 0.792 OPS (37 PA)L14 contact -5.0 (.259 xwOBAcon, 22 BBE)usually bats 2nd (×1.10)beats 4 of 4 eligible startersPeralta .303 allowed · avg SP0.941 OPS vs RHP (154 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	66
8	AUTO STARTPedro Ramirez3B · 3% own	@ CIN · Lodolo LHP	szn .289 xwOBAL15: 0.545 OPS (46 PA)L14 contact -4.7 (.265 xwOBAcon, 33 BBE)usually bats 8th (×0.93)beats 5 of 5 eligible startersshort side vs LHP — 18% of ABLodolo .377 allowed · soft SP0.984 OPS vs LHP (40 AB)CIN plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	66
9	AUTO STARTDane MyersCF · 0% own	vs CHC · Boyd LHP	szn .312 xwOBAL15: 0.754 OPS (38 PA)L14 contact -1.0 (.348 xwOBAcon, 21 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)fills OF needbeats 5 of 6 eligible startersBoyd .331 allowed · soft SP0.826 OPS vs LHP (119 AB)CIN plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	64
10	CONSIDERJhonny PeredaC · 0% own	@ COL · Quintana LHP	szn .348 xwOBAusually bats 9th (×0.90)beats 0 of 2 eligible startersQuintana .343 allowed · soft SPCOL plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	58

Tiers vs YOUR lineup tonight — median starter 56, worst Walker Jenkins (20). AUTO START = beats the median eligible starter.

TBD starter = neutral SP + split legs until the probable posts (refresh upgrades it). Splits need 30+ AB vs that hand. IL bats are excluded; bats who rarely start against tonight's hand are dropped. Doubleheaders: legs average the ends he plays, and everyday bats get up to a ×1.50 volume boost. Lineup slot scales the score by expected PAs from the bat's usual spot (leadoff ×1.12 … 9-hole ×0.90, modal over the last ~10 played days) — his typical order, not today's card, since that posts after waivers run.

🎯 FA Hitters — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Kyle Schwarber

1Xander BogaertsSS · SD · 19.1%BEST VALUE

Trusted 20-BBE flare, 36 PA projection, SB chip attacks rank-3 gap, elite L7 production across all cats

L7 flare 71 · ATC 36 PA · 1 HR · 1 SB · 0.260 · L7 0.407 · 1 HR · sim +0.3 pts

2Rafael Flores Jr.

1B · Pit · 2.4% · HEATER

Best xwOBAcon (0.467) on trusted 28-BBE sample; L7 BA/.438 and HR/R production sustain the heat

Heat 76 · 28 BBE · ATC 19 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.234 · L7 0.438 · 1 HR · sim +0.3 pts

3Moises Ballesteros

C · LAA · 1.8% · HEATER

78-heat on 27 BBE with sustained L7 output (.400/HR/4RBI); 30 PA projection trumps smaller-sample rivals

Heat 78 · 27 BBE · ATC 30 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.248 · L7 0.4 · 1 HR · sim +0.3 pts

4Jakob Marsee

CF · Mia · 27.8% · CATEGORY FIT

Only FA projecting 2 SB RoS; attacks critical rank-4 SB gap with real volume and recent multi-cat surge

ATC 33 PA · 1 HR · 2 SB · 0.231 · L7 0.389 · 2 HR · sim +0.3 pts

5Ty France

1B · SD · 14.5% · FLOOR

Largest PA projection (37), on-board heat with 32-BBE trust, elite L7 slash; safest volume floor available

Heat 75 · 32 BBE · ATC 37 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.259 · L7 0.429 · 1 HR · sim +0.1 pts

Passed on: Eduardo Valencia left off despite top heat score (83/99) because only 15 BBE barely meets threshold, zero RBI context, and ATC projects just 14 PA — playing-time reality kills the ceiling.

💪 Hitter List Rankings

PL Top 150 hitters · your bats + top FAs.

On Hitter List · 17 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Hitter	MLB	Pos	Chg	AVG	xwOBA	HR	SB	RoS	Chu’s Take
16	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	DH	+3	.235	.364	45	3	123
18	Randy Arozarena	SEA	OF	-	.281	.346	25	23	127
21	Miguel Vargas	CHW	1B/3B	+19	.249	.378	32	19	115	Miguel Vargas has returned to the levels we saw early this summer and that really revs my engine. He’s one of those players who has shown…
36	Yandy Díaz	TB	1B	+3	.293	.347	22	3	122
46	Zach Neto	LAA	SS	+11	.240	.311	26	21	111	Zach Neto has been a monster over the last nine games, with 17 hits, 18 combined runs and RBI (a seven RBI night helps), and seven extra-…
59	Jac Caglianone	KC	1B/OF	+13	.277	.353	23	6	107	Jac Caglianone still hits a lot of grounders, but not quite as many as before (the rolling 15-game rate is a hair below 50%) and the stri…
72	Ty France	SD	1B	+12	.301	.333	21	1	108
77	Royce Lewis	MIN	1B/2B/3B	-15	.226	.308	14	15	96	Royce Lewis is streaky. We just gotta deal with that.
85	Cole Carrigg	COL	SS/OF	-22	.272	.311	10	11	66	The strikeouts have creeped up on Cole Carrigg , up to 32% over his last 11 games (which is, conveniently, exactly 50 plate appearances).…
106	Luis Robert Jr.	BAL	OF	+UR	.221	.321	11	2	100
109	Mickey Gasper	BOS	C/1B	+UR	.266	.369	9	0	104	Mickey Gasper — Fantastic mustache, first of all. Second of all, the batted ball data suggests what’s happening of late is very real, tho…
114	Joshua Báez	STL	OF	+UR	.230	.303	7	2	98	Joshua Báez — The 40% strikeout rate is as believable as the power, though I do expect another homer outburst or two before the season is…
115	Kaelen Culpepper	MIN	SS	+UR	.275	.298	3	1	90	Kaelen Culpepper — Culpepper puts a lot of balls in play and it’s working out so far. The BABIP Gods can be cruel, though. The 55 point g…
119	Rafael Flores Jr.	PIT	C/1B	+UR	.268	.341	9	0	82
133	Connor Norby	COL	1B/2B/3B	+UR	.242	.306	7	10	90	Connor Norby still has huge contact issues but the guy can hit the ball hard in the air and plays for Colorado so stream away.
135	Henry Bolte	ATH	OF	+UR	.274	.318	11	21	93	Henry Bolte is leading off again and should get some games in Sacramento soon, if you need a streamer.
137	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	BAL	1B/3B	+UR	.273	.342	10	1	92
143	Alejandro Kirk	TOR	C	+UR	.279	.312	10	1	113
145	Tyler Stephenson	CIN	C	-33	.248	.332	15	0	94
146	Ryan Jeffers	MIN	C	-29	.259	.350	14	1	116
TS	Bryce Eldridge	SF	1B	—	.269	.359	17	1	99	Bryce Eldridge (1B, SFG) — Power prospects can often take a while to really shine.
TS	Walker Jenkins	Min	OF	—	.189	.273	3	1	102	Walker Jenkins (OF, MIN) — Jenkins will get the call today after a white-hot month in the triple-A. He’s worth a scoop in most leagues, E…
UR	Emmanuel Rodriguez	Min	OF	—	.185	.424	1	0	95	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	James Wood	Wsh	OF	—	.266	.412	30	21	126	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Leo Bernal	StL	C	—	.323	.378	3	0	84	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Thomas Saggese	StL	2B/SS/OF	—	.261	.319	4	4	83	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Victor Mesa Jr.	TB	OF	—	.254	.335	13	9	88	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.

🔥 Heat Board

Hottest ACTIVE free-agent bats by contact quality, 9/5–9/18 · Heat = percentile vs all MLB bats over the same window (xwOBAcon 30 · EV 20 · Brl 20 · HH 15 · K 10 · BB 5) · min 15 BBE to qualify (smaller samples live in the HM rail) · IL excluded.

Eduardo Valencia

1B · Det · 2.7% own · xwOBAcon .413 · EV 93.9 · Brl 13.3% · 15 BBE

▲ .111 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.327	6	18	19	0
L14	.438	0	0	5	0

Taylor Trammell

CF · Hou · 0.1% own · xwOBAcon .448 · EV 92.9 · Brl 18.8% · 16 BBE

▼ .028 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.207	8	22	29	4
L14	.179	1	2	3	0

Moises Ballesteros

C · LAA · 1.8% own · xwOBAcon .428 · EV 91.8 · Brl 11.1% · 27 BBE

▲ .147 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.228	9	35	25	1
L14	.375	2	6	3	0

Brett Baty

3B · NYM · 2.8% own · xwOBAcon .414 · EV 93.8 · Brl 12.5% · 24 BBE

▲ .092 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.229	10	50	48	5
L14	.321	2	7	3	0

Rafael Flores Jr.

1B · Pit · 2.4% own · xwOBAcon .467 · EV 92.2 · Brl 10.7% · 28 BBE

▲ .137 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.268	9	20	15	0
L14	.405	2	3	3	0

Ty France

1B · SD · 14.5% own · xwOBAcon .425 · EV 92.0 · Brl 12.5% · 32 BBE

▲ .058 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.301	21	69	55	1
L14	.359	1	7	5	0

Nathaniel Lowe

1B · Cle · 1.5% own · xwOBAcon .397 · EV 91.3 · Brl 13.6% · 22 BBE

▲ .004 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.255	17	59	38	0
L14	.259	2	6	3	0

Lars Nootbaar

LF · Ari · 2.4% own · xwOBAcon .413 · EV 92.3 · Brl 8.3% · 24 BBE

▲ .046 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.235	7	31	31	2
L14	.281	1	4	2	0

Kyle Karros

3B · Col · 2.5% own · xwOBAcon .429 · EV 91.1 · Brl 12.9% · 31 BBE

▼ .034 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.259	12	48	61	5
L14	.225	2	4	3	0

Richie Palacios

LF · TB · 3.1% own · xwOBAcon .375 · EV 90.0 · Brl 10.0% · 20 BBE

▲ .114 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.234	10	52	51	14
L14	.348	3	10	6	3

Honorable mention · hottest L7 (9/12–9/18), not yet on the board · tiny samples — peek, don't trust

Agustin Ramirez

C · Mia

.601 xwOBAcon

10 BBE · .357 L7

Michael Arroyo

2B · Sea

.531 xwOBAcon

9 BBE · .455 L7

Andres Chaparro

1B · Wsh

.540 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .444 L7

Drew Gilbert

RF · SF

.484 xwOBAcon

11 BBE · .231 L7

Henry Davis

C · Pit

.378 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .200 L7

Xander Bogaerts

SS · SD

.457 xwOBAcon

20 BBE · .407 L7

🎯 FA Pitchers — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Andres Munoz

1Christian ScottSP · NYM · 12.8%HEATER

91st-pctl suppression (25 BBE trusted), elite xwOBAcon .211; protects ERA/WHIP while adding Ks

Supp 91 · 25 BBE · ATC 8.0 IP · 0 W · 9 K · 4.04 · 1.24 · PL #12 · sim -0.3 pts

2Jeffrey Springs

SP · Oak · 7.6% · FLOOR

85th-pctl suppression on 45 BBE (most trusted sample); volume SP with ratio safety for ERA/WHIP defense

Supp 85 · 45 BBE · ATC 10.0 IP · 1 W · 8 K · 4.96 · 1.36 · sim -0.3 pts

3Dylan Smith

RP · SF · 0.3% · CATEGORY FIT

Closer role confirmed, 65th-pctl suppression on 18 BBE; best ratio-safe saves option available

Supp 65 · 18 BBE · ATC 4.0 IP · 0 W · 3 K · 3.84 · 1.31 · 1 SV · Closer · sim -0.1 pts

4Jackson Jobe

SP · Det · 14.8% · UPSIDE

86th-pctl suppression, Pitcher List #8 streamer; upside SP with K ceiling protecting rank-2 Ks

Supp 86 · 25 BBE · ATC 8.0 IP · 0 W · 6 K · 4.69 · 1.42 · PL #8 · sim -0.3 pts

5Juan Morillo

RP · Ari · 3.1% · CATEGORY FIT

Confirmed closer, neutral suppression; saves depth with less ratio bleed than Joyce or Cruz

Supp 49 · 14 BBE · ATC 3.0 IP · 0 W · 3 K · 3.83 · 1.36 · 1 SV · Closer · sim -0.1 pts

Passed on: Ben Joyce is a true closer but 9th-pctl suppression on 14 BBE is disqualifying — MIZ #1 ERA is too close to #2 to absorb that contact quality risk for one save.

⚾ Pitcher List Rankings

PL Top 100 SP · your arms + top FAs.

On Pitcher List · 6 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Pitcher	MLB	Chg	ERA	xERA	K/9	RoS	Pollack’s Take
1	Jacob Misiorowski	MIL	-	1.89	2.08	13.1	3.40	Like a base set Charizard, Misiorowski’s not gonna stop being dope.
9	Blake Snell	LAD	+7	1.86	2.15	12.1	3.31	#HotSnellSummer is in full swing.
10	Dylan Cease	TOR	-1	2.40	2.79	12.7	3.45	Like a perfect burger without the condiments to hit all your macros, Cease gives you everything except for a stable WHIP due to his infla…
20	Kyle Harrison	MIL	+8	4.25	3.96	10.9	4.19	With a dominant outing, he muted our concerns, but Harrison’s still displaying decreased velocity and not commanding as well as he did in…
22	Eury Pérez	MIA	-4	3.99	4.10	9.7	3.91	Pérez has the stuff to be an ace, but there’s polishing to do in the command and game plan departments to unlock his full potential.
29	Sean Burke	CHW	-4	3.47	3.82	9.7	4.43	Burke’s hot streak has come to a brief pause, but he’s still doing everything he’s supposed to with elite four-seamers upstairs and suppo…
30	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	-4	3.84	3.90	6.5	4.17	Baseball’s premier innings eater hasn’t ruined his appetite.
38	Jacob Lopez	ATH	+6	5.02	3.50	8.4	4.55	It’s the 2025 hot streak all over again. Enjoy the ride, ya’ll!
40	Walbert Ureña	LAA	-	2.74	3.28	8.7	4.49	Armed with upper-90s heaters and one of the best changeups in baseball, Ureña has hit few speed bumps. If that developing sweeper becomes…
45	Peter Lambert	HOU	-4	3.70	3.69	8.8	4.61	Lambert’s stumble last time was a product of being Singled Out . He’s been reliable all year, but we should be recognizing that Holly is …
46	Jared Jones	PIT	-8	4.17	3.43	10.8	3.97	The stuff is top-tier, but he’s still shaking off the Tommy John surgery rust with his command and the tight leash the Pirates have on hi…
54	Joey Cantillo	CLE	-8	3.74	4.16	9.8	4.05	Efficiency is a problem, but Cantillo is doing everything we want. More curveballs, faster fastballs, and supportive cutters. Throw more …
56	Shane Bieber	TOR	+14	4.37	5.96	7.1	4.05	Bieber is back in business. His heater looked awesome in The Trop, and his offspeed pitches are being the CSW monsters they need to be to…
58	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	-	3.77	3.85	6.1	4.67	Despite what the line suggests, Pfaadt’s last start wasn’t an end to his Vargas Rule . It was a textbook Careful, Icarus with a three-run…
59	Christian Scott	NYM	+1	3.76	3.69	10.9	4.04	Scott has been happy to show us his floor, but the stuff is still there to propel him up The List at a moment’s notice. It’s felt a littl…
60	Sean Manaea	NYM	-4	4.74	4.86	8.6	4.32	The velo was 93+ last time, and he’s still supporting it with an elite sweeper. Manaea’s command has prevented him from excelling across …

🔒 Closer Chart

Save targets · roles + regression flags.

🚨 Closer Tier Changes (vs. yesterday)

COLOR SHIFT Chicago White Sox: Grant Taylor → Grant Taylor (magenta → blue) rostered
COLOR SHIFT Colorado Rockies: Jordan Romano → Jordan Romano ( → magenta) rostered
COLOR SHIFT Los Angeles Angels: Ben Joyce → Ben Joyce (magenta → ) FA — ADD
COLOR SHIFT Milwaukee Brewers: Trevor Megill → Trevor Megill ( → magenta) rostered
COLOR SHIFT Minnesota Twins: Yoendrys Gómez → Yoendrys Gómez (orange → blue) rostered

BLUEEntrenched closer (highest leverage)GREENNext man up / committee pieceYELLOWSetup, 8th-inning leverageORANGESpeculative / lower priorityMAGENTAHigh-upside future / multi-inning

	Pitcher	Tm	Role	SV	SVHD	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K/9	Rtg / Own
Yours on the chart
—	Andrés Muñoz	Seattle Mariners	CL	28	28	57.0	4.11	1.19	3.28	14.1	5.0 · —
—	Louis Varland	Toronto Blue Jays	CL	34	39	76.0	1.30	1.00	2.30	11.2	5.0 · —
Top 5 FA closers (by team rating)
—	Ben Joyce	Los Angeles Angels	CL	5	7	14.3	4.40	1.19	3.96	11.3	4.0 · 5%
	Dylan Smith	San Francisco Giants	CL	4	11	36.0	3.50	1.47	3.98	10.5	4.0 · 0%
—	Steven Cruz HLR	Kansas City Royals	CL	7	12	56.7	4.13	1.25	3.96	9.8	3.5 · 1%
—	Michael Petersen	Miami Marlins	CL	1	26	61.3	3.08	1.11	3.43	10.9	3.0 · 2%
	Juan Morillo	Arizona Diamondbacks	CL	3	21	60.3	2.24	1.04	2.42	10.4	1.0 · 3%

ERA cell: green <3.00 · red >4.50. xERA arrow: ↓ ERA likely to fall (buy) · ↑ ERA likely to rise (sell). Triggers when |xERA−ERA| ≥ 1.00.

✂️ Cut List

Drop priority · value, form, pedigree, role.

50	Connor Norby 3B · Col low TV (5); hot — soft cut signal; UFDA — easy to drop sim cost ~0	TV 5 UFDA
45	Jared Jones SP · Pit low TV (19); UFDA — easy to drop; BUT solid keeper sim cost ~0	TV 19 UFDA
34	Blake Snell SP · LAD mid TV (42); injury status: DTD; BUT strong RoS (3.31 ERA) sim cost ~0	TV 42 Rd 8
24	Sandy Alcantara SP · Mia mid TV (58); cold last 7d; BUT solid keeper sim cost ~0	TV 58 Rd 14
19	Yandy Diaz 1B · TB cold last 7d; BUT strong RoS (122 wRC+) sim cost ~0	TV 73 Rd 9

Higher score = drop sooner — top 5 by score, and only 8+ reaches the board, so the number has no ceiling and is only comparable within this list. The sim line is a roto-sim marginal (cut vs. keep on one shared set of draws), not a measured cost. Pedigree + named closers shielded.

🌱 Stash List

PL's top prospects · grab them cheap.

Hitters

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 24: Top 10 Hitting Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + PSS + PFV + age + 40-man + path.

17 available

H. Mendez

OF · MIN · AAA · 22 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

12·5·.287

M. Arroyo

SS · SEA · AAA · 21 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

19·18·.285

S. Thompson

OF · COL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

15·21·.306

J. Tibbs III

OF · LAD · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

29·10·.288

M. Anderson

2B · DET · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

17·5·.303

J. Long

1B · CHC · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

16·3·.275

K. Alderman

OF · MIA · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

19·10·.255

R. Clifford

1B · NYM · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

18·8·.181

B. Davidson

OF · SFG · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

September

Szn

29·19·.287

C. Ingle

C · CLE · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

20·2·.281

C. Cannarella

OF · MIA · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

15·21·.326

S. King

SS/2B/3B · WSN · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

20·15·.303

R. Ward

LF · LAD · AAA · 28 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

21·8·.246

T. Troy

SS · ARI · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

9·10·.283

E. Arroyo

SS · CIN · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

15·14·.278

D. Crisantes

2B/3B · ARI · AAA · 21 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

10·0·.290

R. Velazquez

1B/C · CLE · AA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

29·2·.293

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

Pitchers

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 24: Top 10 Pitching Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + L3 quality + FV + age + 40-man + path.

24 available

O. Murphy

SP · ATL · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

129K·3.70

T. Johnson

SP · TBR · AAA · 24 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

90K·3.12

B. Hopkins

SP · TBR · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

124K·5.25

B. Mautz

SP · STL · AAA · 24 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

104K·4.27

H. Smith

SP · CHW · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

August 1st

Szn

124K·3.36

L. Perales

SP · WSN · AAA · 23 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

108K·4.10

A. Kelly

SP · PIT · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

80K·4.34

C. Seymour

SP · SFG · AAA · 27 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

91K·4.08

K. Curtis

SP · PIT · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

118K·4.86

R. Snelling

SP · MIA · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

46K·2.38

D. Davalillo

SP · TEX · AAA · 24 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

111K·4.59

B. Garrett

SP · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

June 1st

Szn

120K·3.67

M. Bratt

SP · ARI · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

90K·3.95

E. Rodriguez

SP · NYY · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

126K·3.05

T. McDougal

SP · CHW · AAA · 23 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

51K·4.98

T. Sykora

P · WSN · AA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

—

PFV

ETA

'26

Szn

—

R. Ryan

SP · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

47K·4.39

C. Dana

SP · LAA · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

86K·5.52

R. Sloan

SP · SEA · AA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

128K·3.73

C. Lagrange

SP · NYY · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

July 1st

Szn

85K·4.48

C. Crow

SP · MIL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

106K·3.95

J. Wenninger

SP · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

123K·4.54

T. Gibson

SP · BAL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

116K·5.13

L. Braun

SP · ATL · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

112K·4.18

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

🔭 10 not a 2026 factor — Jackson Ferris · Anthony Eyanson · Jurrangelo Cijntje · Christian Zazueta · Jackson Wolf · Jaxon Wiggins · Bryce Mayer · David Hagaman · Jonathan Santucci · Karson Milbrandt

💼 Trades

Buy-low targets · league trade history.

Top Buy-Lows

Rebound candidates · suggested offers.

Hitters

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Juan Soto RF · NYM · GARR · jregarris +1.2σ buy-low · RF — fits a need · BA 0.270 / xBA 0.295 · xwOBA 0.413	100%	158 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Kyle Schwarber DH · comparable value (TV 100 vs target 100)
📈 BUY-LOW	Cal Raleigh C · Sea · KNIG · TKHOO +1.8σ buy-low · C — modest fit · BA 0.182 / xBA 0.191 · xwOBA 0.313	85%	129 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Miguel Vargas 3B · comparable value (TV 77 vs target 82)
📈 BUY-LOW	Munetaka Murakami 3B · ChW · GARR · jregarris +1.9σ buy-low · 3B — modest fit · BA 0.205 / xBA 0.199 · xwOBA 0.342	82%	121 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Sandy Alcantara SP · comparable value (TV 58 vs target 62)
📈 BUY-LOW	JJ Bleday CF · Cin · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.2σ buy-low · CF — fits a need · BA 0.213 / xBA 0.238 · xwOBA 0.339	19%	100 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Cole Carrigg CF · comparable value (TV 12 vs target 17)
↑ mild buy	Taylor Ward LF · Sea · GoOs · My Best Guys +0.7σ buy-low · LF — fits a need · BA 0.222 / xBA 0.240 · xwOBA 0.333	56%	120 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Sandy Alcantara SP · comparable value (TV 58 vs target 60)
📈 BUY-LOW	Heriberto Hernandez LF · Mia · FRAN · francisw789 +1.1σ buy-low · LF — fits a need · BA 0.232 / xBA 0.247 · xwOBA 0.350	8%	99 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Henry Bolte RF + +$4 FAAB · comparable value (TV 15 vs target 23)
↑ mild buy	Kyle Stowers LF · Mia · KNIG · TKHOO +0.7σ buy-low · LF — fits a need · BA 0.239 / xBA 0.224 · xwOBA 0.324	27%	111 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Jared Jones SP + +$4 FAAB · comparable value (TV 19 vs target 27)
↑ mild buy	Ian Happ LF · ChC · FRAN · francisw789 +0.8σ buy-low · LF — fits a need · BA 0.219 / xBA 0.208 · xwOBA 0.317	69%	109 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Henry Bolte RF + Jared Jones SP + +$3 FAAB · two-piece package (TV 34 vs target 41)
↑ mild buy	Jarren Duran LF · Bos · RAGE · glhoward40 +0.8σ buy-low · LF — fits a need · BA 0.203 / xBA 0.232 · xwOBA 0.296	65%	100 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Eury Perez SP + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 50 vs target 57)
↑ mild buy	Dominic Canzone RF · Sea · GARR · jregarris +0.5σ buy-low · RF — fits a need · BA 0.257 / xBA 0.268 · xwOBA 0.353	13%	114 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Henry Bolte RF + Jared Jones SP · two-piece package (TV 34 vs target 34)

Pitchers

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Kodai Senga SP · NYM · KRTZ · FratSkins +1.1σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 7.05 vs xERA 5.16	11%	3.88 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Cole Carrigg CF · comparable value (TV 12 vs target 14)
↑ mild buy	Kade Anderson SP · Sea · RAGE · glhoward40 +0.7σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 5.33 vs xERA 4.24	17%	4.60 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Cole Carrigg CF · comparable value (TV 12 vs target 16)
↑ mild buy	Andrew Painter SP · Phi · KRTZ · FratSkins +0.7σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 5.54 vs xERA 4.55	17%	4.71 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Cole Carrigg CF · comparable value (TV 12 vs target 15)

League History

Completed trades · frozen grade at the deal + live grade now.

Side	Sent	At deal	Now	Trend
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Andy Pages	A- +7	A+ +46	▲ up
Camp MVP	Pete Crow-Armstrong	C -7	F -46	▼ down
Team Knighton ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Team Knighton	Matthew Boyd	F -22	F -23
Camp MVP	Kenley Jansen	A+ +22	A+ +23
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Worst2First 2026-08-10
Miz-waukee’s Best	Charlie Condon, Payton Tolle	A+ +50	A+ +32	▼ down
Worst2First	Dylan Cease	F -50	F -32	▲ up
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Dorn and Associates LLC 2026-08-05
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Travis Bazzana, George Lombard Jr., Nolan McLean	A+ +144	A+ +106	▼ down
Dorn and Associates LLC	Jackson Chourio, Jhoan Duran, Brice Turang, David Bednar	F -144	F -106	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-07-31
Miz-waukee’s Best	Samuel Basallo, Kade Anderson	A- +8	C -6	▼ down
Ramirez Against the Machine	Blake Snell	C -8	A- +6	▲ up
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Team Knighton 2026-07-23
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Jo Adell, Jacob deGrom	F -49	F -64	▼ down
Team Knighton	Trea Turner	A+ +49	A+ +64	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine ⇄ Miz-waukee’s Best 2026-07-19
Ramirez Against the Machine	Sandy Alcantara	F -42	F -29	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best	Josh Jung	A+ +42	A+ +29	▼ down
I need Buck Showalter ⇄ Hit the Damn Ball You Bums 2026-06-19
I need Buck Showalter	Nasim Nunez	A+ +28	A +12	▼ down
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Justin Wrobleski	F -28	D -12	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ The Boys of Summer 2026-06-12
Miz-waukee’s Best	Chandler Simpson	A +10	C -8	▼ down
The Boys of Summer	$30 FAAB	D -10	A- +8	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-05-01
Miz-waukee’s Best	Kenley Jansen	—	A- +7
Camp MVP	$30 FAAB	A- +3	C -7	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-04-22
Miz-waukee’s Best	Nathan Eovaldi, $70 FAAB	—	F -66
Ramirez Against the Machine	Jac Caglianone	A+ +60	A+ +66	▲ up

🔻 Sell-High — My Roster

Surface line outrunning the underlying skill — trade-value peaks. σ = his surface-stat z-score minus his Statcast-skill z-score, both against the league reference for his side — bigger σ = further ahead of the skill. Pair with Buy-Low Targets.

Verdict	Player	Own	Surface vs expected	Contact	2027 keeper
↓ SHOP	Cole Carrigg CF · Col 0.79σ sell-high · CF · BA 0.266 / xBA 0.245 · xwOBA 0.311 — test the market, don't force it	14%	BA 0.266 / xBA 0.245 +.021 wOBA 0.343 / xwOBA 0.311 +.032	HH 36.2% · Brl/PA 3.6%	25th · +5 rds vs mkt
↓ SHOP	Yandy Diaz 1B · TB 0.53σ sell-high · 1B · BA 0.295 / xBA 0.283 · xwOBA 0.347 — test the market, don't force it	92%	BA 0.295 / xBA 0.283 +.012 wOBA 0.353 / xwOBA 0.347 +.006	HH 48.2% · Brl/PA 5.5%	7th · +1 rd vs mkt
↓ SHOP	Henry Bolte RF · Oak 0.50σ sell-high · RF · BA 0.275 / xBA 0.246 · xwOBA 0.318 — test the market, don't force it	12%	BA 0.275 / xBA 0.246 +.029 wOBA 0.340 / xwOBA 0.318 +.022	HH 47.9% · Brl/PA 4.9%	25th · +5 rds vs mkt
HOLD — KEEPER PRICE	Louis Varland RP · Tor 0.41σ sell-high · RP · ERA 1.30 vs xERA 2.30 — only move for keeper-grade return	86%	ERA 1.30 / xERA 2.30 -1.00	Brl 3.8% allowed	22nd · +16 rds vs mkt

👥 Your Roster

Your roster · news + buy/sell signals.

News (last 24h)

Player news · last 24h.

Walker Jenkins Connor Prielipp and Walker Jenkins lead Twins to 3-0 victory over Angels
Sat 09-19 04:17 AM
— Connor Prielipp allowed two hits in a season-high seven innings and fellow rookie Walker Jenkins homered to lead the Minnesota Twins to a 3-0 victory over the Los Angeles Angels on Friday night.
Cole Carrigg Swipes two bags in loss
Sat 09-19 12:00 AM
Carrigg went 3-for-5 with one RBI and two stolen bases in Friday's 5-4 loss to the Mariners.
Andres Munoz Secures 28th save
Sat 09-19 12:00 AM
Munoz earned the save in Friday's 5-4 win over the Rockies, allowing one hit and no walks with two strikeouts in a scoreless ninth inning.
Walker Jenkins Homers in back-to-back games
Sat 09-19 12:00 AM
Jenkins went 3-for-4 with a solo home run in Friday's 3-0 win over the Angels.
Dylan Cease Chased early in loss
Sat 09-19 12:00 AM
Cease (11-6) took the loss against the Rangers on Friday, allowing four runs (one earned) on three hits and six walks with three strikeouts over 2.2 innings.

Leverage Buys/Sells

Buy/sell windows · surface vs. underlying.

Hitters

Player	Pos	MLB	BA	xBA	wOBA	xwOBA	Brl%	Own%	Signal
James Wood	LF	Wsh	0.266	0.274	0.389	0.412	100.0	99.0	📈 BUY-LOW
Kyle Schwarber	DH	Phi	0.235	0.238	0.370	0.364	98.0	99.5	📈 BUY-LOW
Miguel Vargas	3B	ChW	0.249	0.265	0.359	0.378	88.0	95.0	📈 BUY-LOW
Bryce Eldridge DTD	1B	SF	0.269	0.260	0.361	0.359	75.0	13.9	↑ mild buy
Zach Neto	SS	LAA	0.240	0.214	0.334	0.311	75.0	61.0	fair
Jac Caglianone DTD	RF	KC	0.277	0.277	0.350	0.353	90.0	43.5	fair
Randy Arozarena	LF	Sea	0.281	0.258	0.373	0.346	51.0	94.4	fair
Cole Carrigg	CF	Col	0.272	0.245	0.343	0.311	25.0	14.4	↓ mild fade
Walker Jenkins	CF	Min	0.189	0.182	0.254	0.273	—	3.9	fair
Henry Bolte	RF	Oak	0.274	0.246	0.340	0.318	53.0	11.9	↓ mild fade
Yandy Diaz	1B	TB	0.293	0.283	0.353	0.347	46.0	92.5	↓ mild fade
Kaelen Culpepper IL10	SS	Min	0.275	0.245	0.326	0.298	—	3.9	fair
Emmanuel Rodriguez	CF	Min	0.185	0.322	0.308	0.424	—	0.9	—
Leo Bernal	C	StL	0.323	0.303	0.360	0.378	—	4.1	fair
Victor Mesa Jr.	LF	TB	0.254	0.253	0.353	0.335	—	13.2	fair
Thomas Saggese	2B	StL	0.261	0.252	0.315	0.319	—	9.9	fair
Connor Norby	3B	Col	0.242	0.215	0.321	0.306	51.0	2.5	fair

Pitchers

Pitcher	Pos	MLB	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K-BB%	xwOBA-a	Brl%-a	Own%	Signal
Jared Jones	SP	Pit	90.7	4.17	1.19	3.43	20.5	0.287	7.6	23.2	↑ mild buy
Andres Munoz	RP	Sea	57.0	4.11	1.19	3.28	27.8	0.281	8.9	79.7	↑ mild buy
Blake Snell DTD	SP	LAD	38.7	1.86	1.09	2.15	22.9	0.228	1.1	83.8	↑ mild buy
Joe Ryan	SP	Min	133.7	4.24	1.17	3.66	20.7	0.296	10.2	88.2	fair
Jacob Misiorowski	SP	Mil	166.3	1.89	0.81	2.08	31.6	0.224	3.8	99.1	fair
Sandy Alcantara	SP	Mia	206.0	3.84	1.23	3.90	10.6	0.305	5.7	82.3	fair
Dylan Cease	SP	Tor	169.0	2.40	1.10	2.79	23.5	0.260	5.3	99.1	fair
Eury Perez	SP	Mia	144.3	3.99	1.24	4.10	15.1	0.312	10.2	69.1	fair
Louis Varland	RP	Tor	76.0	1.30	1.00	2.30	24.3	0.236	3.8	86.0	↓ mild fade

📰 MLB News — Top Fantasy Stories

🔒 Keepers — 2027 Slate

Peter's model (additive): rounds-saved (cost arbitrage spine) + current skill + career-grade pedigree + sample stability + Statcast over/under-performance trend, with age-decline (33+), closer/RP, and top-30 talent adjustments. Heavy on bargain-hunting.
Claude's model (multiplicative dynasty index): EFV(2027) = (3 + skill + upside) × age_mult × pos_mult; score = EFV − cost_replacement − mookie-lock. Compounds age curve and position scarcity.
Sorted by consensus rank (average of both models). MLB-inactive players surfaced in 🚑 Return Watch below.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict	Notes
1.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	21st	#1 (+24.5)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51	UFDA-G FV 55
2.5	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	25th	#2 (+23.3)	#3 (+19.8)	S · $20	UFDA
2.5	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	22nd	#3 (+21.5)	#2 (+27.1)	S · $27
4.0	Bryce Eldridge	1B · 20yo	25th	#4 (+16.2)	#4 (+14.4)	A · $14	UFDA FV 55
5.0	Henry Bolte	RF · 21yo	25th	#5 (+14.9)	#5 (+14.4)	A · $14	UFDA FV 40
6.0	Dylan Cease	SP · 30yo	4th	#6 (+12.0)	#6 (+11.7)	A · $12
7.0	Jac Caglianone	RF · 22yo	21st	#7 (+10.0)	#7 (+6.8)	B · $7	UFDA-G FV 55
8.0	Zach Neto	SS · 25yo	10th	#8 (+7.9)	#8 (+2.7)	C · $3

NEW UFDA cap: Peter 3/3 · Claude 3/3 · BOTH = top 8 in both models. Peter only = his model values cost surplus more; Claude only = mine values projection / position scarcity more.

Updated Sat Sep 19 · 9:05 AM ET

🌍 League-Wide Top Keepers

Top 10 keepers · all 12 teams · both models. Yours in green.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	Team	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict
2.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	MIZ	21st	#3 (+24.5)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51
2.5	Jordan Walker	RF · 24yo	GARR	25th	#1 (+27.0)	#4 (+38.7)	S · $39
3.5	Bryan Baker	RP · 31yo	DORN	25th	#4 (+24.1)	#3 (+38.7)	S · $39
6.5	Payton Tolle	SP · 22yo	FRST	25th	#2 (+25.4)	— (+21.2)	S · $21
6.5	Cam Schlittler	SP · 24yo	KRTZ	19th	— (+19.7)	#2 (+40.8)	S · $41
8.0	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	MIZ	25th	#5 (+23.3)	— (+19.8)	S · $20
8.0	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	MIZ	22nd	#10 (+21.5)	#6 (+27.1)	S · $27
8.0	Parker Messick	SP · 24yo	GARR	18th	— (+18.4)	#5 (+31.7)	S · $32
8.5	Foster Griffin	SP · 30yo	GoOs	25th	#6 (+22.1)	— (+21.2)	S · $21
9.0	Taj Bradley	SP · 25yo	GoOs	25th	#7 (+22.1)	— (+19.8)	S · $20
9.0	Andy Pages	CF · 25yo	BLOB	20th	#8 (+22.0)	#10 (+24.0)	S · $24
9.0	Cade Cavalli	SP · 26yo	FRAN	21st	— (+18.6)	#7 (+26.1)	S · $26
9.5	Drew Rasmussen	SP · 30yo	THAR	8th	— (+13.9)	#8 (+26.0)	S · $26
10.0	Logan Henderson	SP · 23yo	PEYT	25th	#9 (+21.9)	— (+17.1)	A · $17
10.0	Nolan McLean	SP · 23yo	DORN	20th	— (+17.8)	#9 (+24.0)	S · $24

Updated Sat Sep 19 · 9:05 AM ET

🏚️ Keeper Cupboards

Every team's six best keepers · shade = dual-model consensus value. Cupboard score weights the top four heavily (the slots that get kept), keepers 5–8 taper. 100 = league's best cupboard.

Team	K1	K2	K3	K4	K5	K6	Cupboard
1MIZ	MisiorowskiR21	VargasR25	VarlandR22	EldridgeR25	BolteR25	CeaseR4	100
2DORN	BakerR25	RiceR20	McLeanR20	PerdomoR21	BazzanaR25	LaraR25	85
3KRTZ	SchlittlerR19	BengeR25	StewartR10	McGonigleR17	SanojaR25	MahleR23	75
4BLOB	PagesR20	SorianoR25	LopezR20	ScottR25	SuarezR12	LileR15	71
5PEYT	HendersonR25	SanchezR9	YoungR25	WooR8	MayR25	CameronR18	71
6GoOs	GriffinR25	BradleyR25	GoodmanR21	WachaR25	RafaelaR8	BurlesonR9	70
7THAR	WilliamsR11	RasmussenR8	MarshR25	O'BrienR17	Jr.R16	KeaschallR21	68
8GARR	WalkerR25	MessickR18	GrayR7	DinglerR22	CanzoneR25	GoreR8	66
9FRAN	LatzR25	CavalliR21	McCarthyR25	AntonacciR25	BurnsR5	OrtizR22	66
10KNIG	MartinezR25	deGromR13	RodriguezR25	JensenR20	ChapmanR11	DuranR25	54
11RAGE ▼ thin	EwingR25	CamineroR5	ImanagaR9	JonesR25	BasalloR19	HerreraR20	48
12FRST ▼ thin	TolleR25	WheelerR8	MuncyR18	SkubalR1	RumfieldR25	RogersR9	45

The bottom two rows are your trade marks — thin cupboards pay up for keepable pieces.

data: snap 1h · BP 25d · PL 25d · HL 22d · PSS 0h · BR 40h · FG 0h · proj 21h · closer 0h · oyster 0h · AAA-sc 10h · cookie ok