Miz-waukee’s Best — The Brandon League

Last updated Monday, August 31 · 01:04 PM ET

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Any player in the league universe · tap a result for the card.

☕ Morning Briefing

🏆 MIZ holds a commanding 106.0-point lead atop the standings — 20.5 ahead of second — but SB is the one category worth watching: DORN lurks only 4 SB behind, and THAR sits just 6 SB ahead of you for a potential +1 roto point.

⚾ Make sure Kyle Harrison is active today — he's your probable. No MIZ position players posted standout lines from yesterday's sheet, but roster health looks clean.

🌱 Both stash-board prospects put up eye-opening numbers: Sebastian Walcott (RI 90, MLB Pipeline #9, FA) went 2-for-4 with a HR and 3 RBI at AA, while Bo Davidson (RI 86, FA) went 2-for-3 with a HR and 5 RBI at AAA — two compelling names to act on if you have a stash slot. Meanwhile, Luis Robert Jr. — flagged with +nanσ underlying skill — was just dropped by Photogenic Nick Kurtz and is now a free agent worth a serious look.

🔥 A pair of quiet contact-heat signals to watch: Sean Murphy is flashing 90/99 heat on 9 BBE (xwOBAcon .654) over his last 7, and Drew Cavanaugh is at 87/99 on 10 BBE (xwOBAcon .627) — both early, small-sample reads not yet on the Heat Board. Among today's FA verdicts, Dylan Smith leads the roto sim at +1.2 points in a confirmed closer role with 4 projected saves, and Lars Nootbaar is screaming with a 91/99 heat score on 26 BBE with a .333 average, 2 HR, and 6 RBI over his last 7.

📰 Luis Gil was recalled by the Yankees from Triple-A and is a free agent — a name worth considering for SP depth this late in the season. The FanGraphs column notes Lazaro Montes is expected to be called up September 1st, a top-100 power bat projected to see regular time on the strong side of a platoon. Over in Baltimore, Yennier Cano threw a scoreless ninth for the save Sunday in what looks like a committee situation, though he may emerge as the lead option — relevant context given Andrew Kittredge is your #2 FA closer target at a sim +0.6. Pete Crow-Armstrong's weekend explosion (8-for-16, 8 RBI, 5 HR in two games) is the league's hottest story, and Max Scherzer tossed 7 scoreless innings with 10 Ks for Toronto, passing Gaylord Perry on the all-time strikeout list.

ELIGIBILITYK. Schwarber 1B 6/10P. Ramirez 1B 4/10

Your standing

1stof 12

106.0 roto pts +20.5 clear of 2nd

no change vs last update

Top Gaps

SB (7.0) W (8.0)

categories below mid-pack

🎯 Category Pressure

Category ranks vs. the league.

Rank →

Δ to #1

922

995

🥇

262

289

🥇

RBI

857

877

🥇

128

132

138

195

+63

AVG

.255

.256

.258

+0.003

1152

1180

1296

+116

+11

ERA

3.39

3.19

🥇

WHIP

1.17

1.11

🥇

📅 Yesterday's MIZ Box Scores (2026-08-30)

Loading box scores…

🏥 IL Rehab Tracker

IL players · rehab game logs.

James Wood (LF) IL10 on rehab
AA2026-08-30 · 1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 0 SB

On the IL, no rehab games yet: Joe Ryan (IL15), Spencer Schwellenbach (IL60 · watch).

📊 League Activity (last 24h)

All adds, drops, and trades across the 12 teams.

Team	Move
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	+ Jackson Jobe \| − Zebby Matthews
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	+ Clay Holmes \| − Martin Perez
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	+ Lawrence Butler \| − Luis Robert Jr.
Phil Swift's Flex Seal	+ Lazaro Montes \| − Jakob Marsee

🏆 League Standings

Current roto points · 10,000-sim projected finish. FAAB = acquisition budget remaining.

99.9% to win the league · proj finish 1.0 · 102.0 roto pts

#	Team	Pts	FAAB	Win%	Proj Pts	Range	Proj Rk
1	MIZ Miz-waukee’s Best	106.0	$0	99.9%	102.0	98–106	1.0
2	FRAN Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	85.5	$74	0.1%	88.1	83–94	2.1
3	PEYT Phil Swift's Flex Seal	78.0	$29	0.0%	80.4	74–87	3.4
4	KRTZ Photogenic Nick Kurtz	76.5	$25	0.0%	80.3	74–87	3.5
5	GoOs I need Buck Showalter	72.0	$170	0.0%	72.8	67–78	4.9
6	BLOB Camp MVP	67.5	$168	0.0%	68.6	65–72	5.8
7	THAR Phil Mickeltits	61.5	$176	0.0%	59.6	54–65	7.2
8	KNIG Team Knighton	58.0	$137	0.0%	55.9	50–61	7.8
9	GARR The Boys of Summer	47.5	$155	0.0%	49.7	44–55	9.0
10	DORN Dorn and Associates LLC	45.0	$89	0.0%	44.0	40–49	10.2
11	RAGE Ramirez Against the Machine	43.5	$163	0.0%	36.1	33–40	11.9
12	FRST Worst2First	39.0	$154	0.0%	42.6	38–48	10.5

10,000 sims · fixed seed · noise CV talent 0.12 / idio 0.06 / team-cat 0.08 · assumes ATC rest-of-season rates

Your categories · projected roto points

R 12.0HR 12.0RBI 11.6SB 7.0AVG 9.0W 6.6SV 9.1K 10.8ERA 12.0WHIP 12.0

Winnable — push here: SB, AVG, W, SV.

🚨 Today's Streaming Board

152 of 200 GS · should be 171 · 19 behindBehind pace — stream aggressively

048 left · ~12.4/wk to cap · proj 178200

⏳ BP's post is late — Verdict pill is running on our score + Pitcher List for now (BP joins the top-2 once it posts).

Your starters + top FA streamers

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Kyle Harrison	@ CHC	START	—	4.9	#3	tough CHC lineup, strong skills
Brandon Pfaadt	vs. PHI	AUTO START	—	—	#5	—
Peter Lambert	vs CWS	START	—	4.3	#6	average CWS lineup, shaky recent form, strong skills
Walbert Urena	vs NYY	DART	—	5.0	—	average NYY lineup, strong skills
Anthony Kay	@ HOU	DART	—	3.7	#13	average HOU lineup, weak skills, shaky recent form
Tanner Gordon	vs BAL	SIT⚠ opener	—	5.5	#24	average BAL lineup, hitter park, hot recent form
Elmer Rodriguez	@ LAA	SIT	—	3.9	#17	soft LAA lineup, weak skills
Ryan Gusto	@ WSH	SIT	—	3.9	#20	tough WSH lineup, hot recent form
Brady Singer	vs SD	SIT	—	3.2	#18	average SD lineup, hitter park, weak skills
Robert Stock	@ TB	SIT	—	1.7	#21	tough TB lineup, shaky recent form, short leash
Mitch Farris	vs. NYY	SIT	—	—	#23	—

Openers filtered: Will Dion, Anthony Molina

Your staff: 3.19 ERA / 1.11 WHIP · GS 152/200 — Behind pace — stream aggressively. Verdict = the best 2 of BP · our score · Pitcher List, averaged (low outlier dropped); before BP posts it's our score + PL. ⚠ = our matchup score dissented — eyeball that one. Tap a MIZ score for the reasoning.

Tomorrow · top 5 FA · Tue 9/1 · BP not out yet, so pill = our score + Pitcher List

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Eric Lauer	vs STL	DART	—	4.3	#14	Start justified solely by favorable Win probability.
Grayson Rodriguez	vs NYY	DART	—	4.5	—	average NYY lineup, weak skills, hot recent form
Connor Prielipp	vs DET	SIT	—	4.0	#17	Plus stuff, command inconsistency caps upside.
J.T. Ginn	@ TEX	SIT	—	4.3	#19	Two-month results hold in neutral park; arsenal trust lacking.
Sean Manaea	@ TB	SIT	—	3.8	#18	92 mph fastball losing command and usage rate; declining profile.

📼 Streamer Report Card

Does the Streaming Board actually work? Every pick it showed, frozen at pick time and graded off the real box score. Two scoreboards below: first our own calls — the Verdict ladder and MIZ (our matchup score, 0–10) — then the outside lists behind them, BP (RelieverRecon's daily BP Streamers post) and PL (Pitcher List's tier ranking). Grades are recomputed from raw lines on every build — the rubric can change, the history follows.

Last 30d · 352 starts graded over 29 days · GOOD+ 51% · BLOWUP 16% · agg ERA 4.23 · WHIP 1.32 · 4.5 K/start · 379 picks logged, 12 never started, 15 awaiting a box score — not graded

Grade mix · all 352 graded starts

GEM 70 GOOD 108 OK 116 BLOWUP 58

GEM6+ IP, ≤1 ER · or 6+ IP, 8+ K, ≤2 ERGOODquality start (6+ IP, ≤3 ER) · or 5+ IP, ≤2 EROKheld the line without earning GOODBLOWUP5+ ER · or under 4 IP with 4+ ERGOOD+ = GEM + GOOD. A pick whose starter never took the ball grades to nothing and leaves every rate below.

Cohort	n	GOOD+	BLOWUP	ERA
Q1 — Do our own calls work? · Verdict ladder + MIZ bands · live board rows only, nothing backfilled
Verdict · AUTO START	25	72%	12%	3.38
Verdict · START	43	60%	7%	3.51
Verdict · DART	98	47%	15%	4.55
Verdict · SIT	186	47%	20%	4.37
MIZ ≥ 5.0	121	61%	14%	3.66
MIZ 3.5–4.9	129	49%	16%	4.50
MIZ < 3.5	85	40%	21%	4.82
All live board picks	352	51%	16%	4.23
Q1 read — the ladder has not separated: GOOD+ runs 72% · 60% · 47% · 47% down the rungs, and MIZ sorts: GOOD+ falls 61% · 49% · 40% from the top band down.
Q2 — Which outside list earns the weight? · BP and PL graded on their own published lists · mostly rebuilt from git
PL · Auto Start	23	74%	9%	3.25
PL · Probably Start	39	56%	15%	4.17
PL · Questionable Start	94	53%	14%	4.14
PL · Do Not Start	172	48%	20%	4.41
BP · Auto	11	36%	9%	4.74
BP · Likely	42	45%	19%	4.53
All graded picks	352	51%	16%	4.23
Q2 read — against the 51% all-picks baseline, PL's top tiers clear it (74% · 56%) and BP's top tiers are too thin to call (36% · 45% on n=11 · n=42).

Rows are overlapping lenses on the same picks, not a partition — one start can be a PL Auto Start and a Verdict SIT at once, so they never sum to the headline; each group is read against its own baseline row.

⚠ Dissent check — the override is ahead so far — 62% GOOD+ on n=8. Splits are picks the board started over our MIZ sit-call (vs 51% for all live picks).

Calibration — do our numbers mean anything? · full season, 2026-06-29→2026-08-30 · 890 graded picks · MIZ on 353, BP on 230, Verdict on 371

The ladder above asks whether the tiers sort. This asks the harder question: is the number a probability — when the board says 7, do 70% of those starts come back GOOD+? Bins are equal-count and merge until every one clears n=15; the walk-forward rows are scored against a model that only ever saw earlier days.

Score bin	n	mean	GOOD+	95% CI
MIZ score → P(GOOD+) · our matchup score, 0–10 · live rows only · n=353
MIZ 0.5–3.3	80	2.6	42%	32%–53%
MIZ 3.4–3.9	61	3.7	46%	34%–58%
MIZ 4.0–4.8	77	4.4	52%	41%–63%
MIZ 4.9–5.5	64	5.2	55%	43%–66%
MIZ 5.6–8.9	71	6.4	63%	52%–74%
All MIZ-scored picks	353	—	52%	—
BP score → P(GOOD+) · RelieverRecon's published rating · includes git-backfilled rows · n=230
BP 4.6–6.6	48	6.1	35%	23%–50%
BP 6.7–7.3	44	7.0	52%	38%–66%
BP 7.4–7.7	47	7.5	45%	31%–59%
BP 7.8–8.4	47	8.1	47%	33%–61%
BP 8.5–10.0	44	9.1	43%	30%–58%
All BP-scored picks	230	—	44%	—
Verdict tier → P(GOOD+) · the consensus call itself · live rows only
AUTO START	27	—	70%	52%–84%
START	46	—	59%	44%–72%
DART	102	—	48%	39%–58%
SIT	196	—	48%	41%–55%

Out-of-sample	n	value	vs
Walk-forward probability · logistic on MIZ, refit daily on earlier days only · from 2026-08-05 · 25 days
Brier — our probability	289	0.247	lower is better
Brier — flat base rate to date	289	0.255	we win by 0.008
Brier — verdict-tier history	289	0.256	we win by 0.009
Log loss — our probability	289	0.686	lower is better
ECE — our probability	289	0.051	5 equal-count bins
ECE bins · predicted p vs what actually happened
said 32%–48%	58	43%	off by 1%
said 48%–52%	58	41%	off by 8%
said 52%–56%	57	46%	off by 9%
said 56%–60%	58	53%	off by 5%
said 60%–74%	58	62%	off by 3%
Verdict — usable with caveats: ECE 0.051 over n=289 out-of-sample picks (≤0.03 well calibrated · ≤0.07 usable with caveats); edges the flat base rate on Brier (0.247 vs 0.255, a thin margin; log-loss ~coin-flip).

🔥 Today's Hitter Streamers

Top 10 FA bats for today's slate · score = split vs SP hand (35%) + SP softness (35%) + bat quality (15%) + trailing 15 days (10%) + park (5%) · facing an elite arm fades the score hard (feast on weak pitchers).

#	Hitter	Matchup	Why	Legs	Score
1	AUTO STARTMickey GasperC · 4% own	vs SEA · Kirby RHP	szn .360 xwOBAL15: 1.710 OPS (37 PA)L14 contact +6.0 (.601 xwOBAcon, 25 BBE)usually bats 5thbeats 2 of 2 eligible startersKirby .305 allowed · avg SP0.946 OPS vs RHP (113 AB)BOS plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	78
2	AUTO STARTBlaze Alexander3B · 4% own	@ COL · Gordon RHP	szn .358 xwOBAusually bats 1st (×1.12)fills OF needbeats 10 of 11 eligible startersGordon .323 allowed · avg SP0.873 OPS vs RHP (145 AB)COL plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	76
3	AUTO STARTTy France1B · 13% own	@ CIN · Singer RHP	szn .331 xwOBAL15: 0.765 OPS (58 PA)L14 contact -0.8 (.353 xwOBAcon, 31 BBE)usually bats 4th (×1.05)beats 2 of 3 eligible startersSinger .345 allowed · soft SP0.881 OPS vs RHP (254 AB)CIN plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	75
4	AUTO STARTRyan ViladeRF · 0% own	vs NYM · Stock RHP	szn .331 xwOBAL15: 1.047 OPS (27 PA)L14 contact +6.0 (.570 xwOBAcon, 15 BBE)usually bats 2nd (×1.10)fills OF needbeats 8 of 10 eligible startersshort side vs RHP — 38% of ABStock .339 allowed · soft SP0.735 OPS vs RHP (76 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	70
5	AUTO STARTLars NootbaarLF · 3% own	vs PHI · Nola RHP	szn .345 xwOBAL15: 1.079 OPS (31 PA)L14 contact +6.0 (.513 xwOBAcon, 26 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)fills OF needbeats 6 of 6 eligible startersNola .315 allowed · avg SP0.764 OPS vs RHP (183 AB)AZ plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	68
6	STARTLuis CampusanoC · 1% own	@ CIN · Singer RHP	szn .335 xwOBAL14 contact -5.0 (.120 xwOBAcon, 12 BBE)usually bats 6th (×0.98)beats 1 of 2 eligible startersSinger .345 allowed · soft SP0.873 OPS vs RHP (117 AB)CIN plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	66
7	AUTO STARTSamad Taylor2B · 1% own	@ CIN · Singer RHP	szn .326 xwOBAfills OF needbeats 7 of 8 eligible startersSinger .345 allowed · soft SP0.788 OPS vs RHP (64 AB)CIN plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	63
8	AUTO STARTWade MecklerCF · 1% own	vs NYY · Rodríguez RHP	szn .307 xwOBAL15: 0.619 OPS (27 PA)L14 contact -4.4 (.272 xwOBAcon, 17 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)fills OF needbeats 5 of 6 eligible startersRodríguez .355 allowed · soft SP0.787 OPS vs RHP (184 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	61
9	AUTO STARTJose SiriCF · 0% own	vs NYY · Rodríguez RHP	szn .309 xwOBAL15: 0.272 OPS (39 PA)L14 contact +1.4 (.402 xwOBAcon, 19 BBE)usually bats 5thfills OF needbeats 5 of 6 eligible startersshort side vs RHP — 49% of ABRodríguez .355 allowed · soft SP0.755 OPS vs RHP (83 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	57
10	CONSIDERTyler StephensonC · 6% own	vs SD · King RHP	szn .337 xwOBAL15: 0.830 OPS (52 PA)L14 contact -1.4 (.339 xwOBAcon, 27 BBE)usually bats 4th (×1.05)beats 0 of 2 eligible startersKing .319 allowed · avg SP0.784 OPS vs RHP (274 AB)CIN plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	56

Tiers vs YOUR lineup tonight — median starter 55, worst Randy Arozarena (18). AUTO START = beats the median eligible starter.

TBD starter = neutral SP + split legs until the probable posts (refresh upgrades it). Splits need 30+ AB vs that hand. IL bats are excluded; bats who rarely start against tonight's hand are dropped. Doubleheaders: legs average the ends he plays, and everyday bats get up to a ×1.50 volume boost. Lineup slot scales the score by expected PAs from the bat's usual spot (leadoff ×1.12 … 9-hole ×0.90, modal over the last ~10 played days) — his typical order, not today's card, since that posts after waivers run.

🎯 FA Hitters — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Ryan Jeffers

1Lars NootbaarLF · Ari · 2.9%HEATER

91/99 heat on 26 BBE, .333/.2HR/6RBI last 7; trusted sample screaming run it

Heat 91 · 26 BBE · ATC 69 PA · 2 HR · 1 SB · 0.245 · L7 0.333 · 2 HR · sim +0.0 pts

2Luis Robert Jr.

CF · NYM · 15.2% · HEATER

86/99 heat on 28 BBE trusted sample, 4HR L14, SB upside helps rank-6 SB need

Heat 86 · 28 BBE · ATC 87 PA · 3 HR · 4 SB · 0.233 · L7 0.2 · 1 HR · sim -0.0 pts

3Drew Gilbert

RF · SF · 0.7% · HEATER

86/99 heat 22 BBE, 7R/5RBI/1HR last 7; production confirming contact quality signal

Heat 86 · 22 BBE · ATC 70 PA · 1 HR · 1 SB · 0.228 · L7 0.294 · 1 HR · sim +0.0 pts

4Mickey Gasper

C · Bos · 4.4% · UPSIDE

90/99 heat, .556/2HR/3RBI last 7; ATC PA floor is brutal but current output overrides

Heat 90 · 25 BBE · ATC 4 PA · 0 HR · 0 SB · 0.225 · L7 0.556 · 2 HR · sim +0.0 pts

5Joc Pederson

DH · Tex · 2.4% · BEST VALUE

wRC+ 119 projection is class of field; 2HR last 7 validates despite soft flare sample

L7 flare 77 · ATC 70 PA · 3 HR · 1 SB · 0.235 · L7 0.2 · 2 HR · sim +0.0 pts

Passed on: Ty France has the cleanest projection profile (100 PA, wRC+ 106, 12 RBI) but zero SB and no heat signal makes him a volume filler MIZ doesn't need with a 27-point R/HR cushion.

💪 Hitter List Rankings

PL Top 150 hitters · your bats + top FAs.

On Hitter List · 17 yours · 8 FAs

Rank	Hitter	MLB	Pos	Chg	AVG	xwOBA	HR	SB	RoS	Chu’s Take
16	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	DH	+3	.244	.366	40	3	128
18	Randy Arozarena	SEA	OF	-	.268	.344	20	20	123
21	Miguel Vargas	CHW	1B/3B	+19	.249	.389	29	13	114	Miguel Vargas has returned to the levels we saw early this summer and that really revs my engine. He’s one of those players who has shown…
36	Yandy Díaz	TB	1B	+3	.303	.356	20	3	123
46	Zach Neto	LAA	SS	+11	.236	.306	23	18	109	Zach Neto has been a monster over the last nine games, with 17 hits, 18 combined runs and RBI (a seven RBI night helps), and seven extra-…
59	Jac Caglianone	KC	1B/OF	+13	.284	.361	23	6	107	Jac Caglianone still hits a lot of grounders, but not quite as many as before (the rolling 15-game rate is a hair below 50%) and the stri…
72	Ty France	SD	1B	+12	.287	.331	19	1	106
77	Royce Lewis	MIN	1B/2B/3B	-15	.233	.313	13	14	104	Royce Lewis is streaky. We just gotta deal with that.
85	Cole Carrigg	COL	SS/OF	-22	.261	.321	6	8	68	The strikeouts have creeped up on Cole Carrigg , up to 32% over his last 11 games (which is, conveniently, exactly 50 plate appearances).…
106	Luis Robert Jr.	NYM	OF	+UR	.223	.318	10	2	93
109	Mickey Gasper	BOS	C	+UR	.278	.360	5	0	94	Mickey Gasper — Fantastic mustache, first of all. Second of all, the batted ball data suggests what’s happening of late is very real, tho…
115	Kaelen Culpepper	MIN	SS	+UR	.313	.326	3	0	91	Kaelen Culpepper — Culpepper puts a lot of balls in play and it’s working out so far. The BABIP Gods can be cruel, though. The 55 point g…
119	Rafael Flores Jr.	PIT	C/1B	+UR	.222	.339	7	0	83
135	Henry Bolte	ATH	OF	+UR	.273	.304	6	14	91	Henry Bolte is leading off again and should get some games in Sacramento soon, if you need a streamer.
145	Tyler Stephenson	CIN	C	-33	.250	.337	14	0	98
146	Ryan Jeffers	MIN	C	-29	.270	.351	10	1	118
148	Andruw Monasterio	BOS	2B/SS	-26	.248	.299	6	4	92
149	Dylan Crews	WSH	OF	-35	.220	.312	10	8	88
150	Luis Rengifo	SD	2B/3B/OF	-24	.240	.304	4	6	87
TS	Bryce Eldridge	SF	1B	—	.261	.354	15	1	99	Bryce Eldridge (1B, SFG) — Power prospects can often take a while to really shine.
TS	Jordan Lawlar	Ari	3B/OF	—	.271	.311	3	4	89	Jordan Lawlar (3B/OF, ARI) — I do not love that he’s sat against two of the three righties the D-Backs have faced, nor the strikeouts. He…
TS	Pedro Ramirez	ChC	2B/3B	—	.285	.305	4	7	91	Pedro Ramirez (2B/3B, CHC) — Hitting well when he plays, which is not very often.
TS	Walker Jenkins	Min	OF	—	.222	.294	0	1	92	Walker Jenkins (OF, MIN) — Jenkins will get the call today after a white-hot month in the triple-A. He’s worth a scoop in most leagues, E…
UR	James Wood	Wsh	OF	—	.265	.419	30	17	129	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Ralphy Velazquez	Cle	1B	—	—	—	—	—	83	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.

🔥 Heat Board

Hottest ACTIVE free-agent bats by contact quality, 8/17–8/30 · Heat = percentile vs all MLB bats over the same window (xwOBAcon 30 · EV 20 · Brl 20 · HH 15 · K 10 · BB 5) · min 15 BBE to qualify (smaller samples live in the HM rail) · IL excluded.

Lars Nootbaar

LF · Ari · 2.9% own · xwOBAcon .513 · EV 93.3 · Brl 19.2% · 26 BBE

▲ .077 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.233	6	27	29	2
L14	.310	3	10	5	0

Mickey Gasper

C · Bos · 4.4% own · xwOBAcon .601 · EV 91.0 · Brl 24.0% · 25 BBE

▲ .145 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.278	5	19	17	0
L14	.423	5	12	6	0

Ryan Vilade

RF · TB · 0.2% own · xwOBAcon .570 · EV 95.0 · Brl 20.0% · 15 BBE

▲ .027 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.259	11	37	25	3
L14	.286	1	1	3	0

Luis Robert Jr.

CF · NYM · 15.2% own · xwOBAcon .473 · EV 92.2 · Brl 21.4% · 28 BBE

▲ .027 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.223	10	23	24	2
L14	.250	4	6	6	0

Drew Gilbert

RF · SF · 0.7% own · xwOBAcon .536 · EV 93.2 · Brl 18.2% · 22 BBE

▼ .027 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.239	8	36	43	1
L14	.212	2	7	8	0

Colt Keith

1B · Det · 5.1% own · xwOBAcon .456 · EV 93.5 · Brl 15.0% · 20 BBE

▼ .111 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.259	9	32	46	5
L14	.148	0	0	2	0

Andres Chaparro

1B · Wsh · 0.6% own · xwOBAcon .399 · EV 92.5 · Brl 18.5% · 27 BBE

▲ .077 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.246	9	33	29	0
L14	.323	2	4	6	0

Brett Baty

3B · NYM · 2.6% own · xwOBAcon .506 · EV 91.2 · Brl 18.8% · 16 BBE

▲ .142 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.222	8	40	45	5
L14	.364	0	2	1	0

Justin Foscue

2B · Tex · 0.2% own · xwOBAcon .449 · EV 91.2 · Brl 19.0% · 21 BBE

▲ .038 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.258	9	25	20	0
L14	.296	2	4	4	0

Hao-Yu Lee

3B · Det · 1.3% own · xwOBAcon .381 · EV 93.2 · Brl 10.0% · 30 BBE

▲ .004 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.266	7	33	26	2
L14	.270	1	5	6	1

Honorable mention · hottest L7 (8/24–8/30), not yet on the board · tiny samples — peek, don't trust

Sean Murphy

C · Atl

.654 xwOBAcon

9 BBE · .462 L7

Drew Cavanaugh

C · SF

.627 xwOBAcon

10 BBE · .222 L7

Brady House

3B · Wsh

.452 xwOBAcon

16 BBE · .263 L7

Colton Cowser

CF · Bal

.507 xwOBAcon

14 BBE · .313 L7

J.T. Realmuto

C · Phi

.396 xwOBAcon

15 BBE · .235 L7

Joc Pederson

DH · Tex

.397 xwOBAcon

10 BBE · .200 L7

🎯 FA Pitchers — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Sandy Alcantara

1Dylan SmithRP · SF · 0.4%BEST VALUE

Roto sim +1.2 leads all; confirmed closer role, 4 projected SV, protects ratios

Supp 43 · 13 BBE · ATC 10.0 IP · 1 W · 9 K · 3.97 · 1.33 · 4 SV · Closer · sim +1.2 pts

2Andrew Kittredge

RP · Bal · 2.1% · CATEGORY FIT

Roto sim +0.6, confirmed closer role, 2 SV projected, WHIP-safe at 1.21

Supp 35 · 17 BBE · ATC 10.0 IP · 1 W · 9 K · 3.87 · 1.21 · 2 SV · Closer · sim +0.6 pts

3Calvin Faucher

RP · Mia · 0.8% · CATEGORY FIT

Confirmed closer, roto sim +0.4, elite suppression 73rd percentile on 14 BBE corroborated

Supp 73 · 14 BBE · ATC 10.0 IP · 1 W · 10 K · 3.96 · 1.39 · 1 SV · Closer · sim +0.4 pts

4Grayson Rodriguez

SP · LAA · 2.8% · HEATER

87th-percentile suppression on trusted 37 BBE, roto sim +0.2, ratios manageable

Supp 87 · 37 BBE · ATC 22.0 IP · 2 W · 22 K · 4.30 · 1.31 · sim +0.2 pts

5Dustin May

SP · Mil · 16.6% · FLOOR

Roto sim +0.2, 44th-percentile suppression on 28 BBE, best SP ratio profile available

Supp 44 · 28 BBE · ATC 25.0 IP · 2 W · 24 K · 4.09 · 1.26 · sim +0.2 pts

Passed on: Joey Cantillo has elite 88th-percentile suppression on a trusted 29-BBE sample but the roto sim is -0.2 and his RP role means no GS volume to help Wins/Ks at scale, making him a ratio decorator MIZ doesn't need at rank 1 ERA/WHIP.

⚾ Pitcher List Rankings

PL Top 100 SP · your arms + top FAs.

On Pitcher List · 6 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Pitcher	MLB	Chg	ERA	xERA	K/9	RoS	Pollack’s Take
1	Jacob Misiorowski	MIL	-	1.73	2.00	13.2	3.32	Like a base set Charizard, Misiorowski’s not gonna stop being dope.
9	Blake Snell	LAD	+7	2.42	2.09	12.5	3.42	#HotSnellSummer is in full swing.
10	Dylan Cease	TOR	-1	2.33	2.65	13.0	3.45	Like a perfect burger without the condiments to hit all your macros, Cease gives you everything except for a stable WHIP due to his infla…
20	Kyle Harrison	MIL	+8	2.79	3.24	11.1	4.12	With a dominant outing, he muted our concerns, but Harrison’s still displaying decreased velocity and not commanding as well as he did in…
22	Eury Pérez	MIA	-4	3.44	3.72	9.8	3.87	Pérez has the stuff to be an ace, but there’s polishing to do in the command and game plan departments to unlock his full potential.
30	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	-4	3.46	3.61	6.6	4.19	Baseball’s premier innings eater hasn’t ruined his appetite.
38	Jacob Lopez	ATH	+6	4.82	3.41	8.7	4.63	It’s the 2025 hot streak all over again. Enjoy the ride, ya’ll!
39	Dustin May	MIL	-	4.69	4.19	8.5	4.09	May got Singled Out in a disastrous performance, but his stuff is still dope, and his new situation is ideal. Higher win chance, great de…
40	Walbert Ureña	LAA	-	2.94	3.43	8.7	4.54	Armed with upper-90s heaters and one of the best changeups in baseball, Ureña has hit few speed bumps. If that developing sweeper becomes…
43	Andrew Painter	PHI	+UR	5.95	4.58	7.8	4.78	From off The List to inside the Top 50, Painter has stolen our hearts with an improved heater (97+ mph with 17-18″ iVB) and emphasis on r…
45	Peter Lambert	HOU	-4	3.66	3.54	8.8	4.58	Lambert’s stumble last time was a product of being Singled Out . He’s been reliable all year, but we should be recognizing that Holly is …
46	Jared Jones	PIT	-8	4.83	3.83	10.3	3.99	The stuff is top-tier, but he’s still shaking off the Tommy John surgery rust with his command and the tight leash the Pirates have on hi…
54	Joey Cantillo	CLE	-8	3.70	3.96	9.6	4.05	Efficiency is a problem, but Cantillo is doing everything we want. More curveballs, faster fastballs, and supportive cutters. Throw more …
56	Shane Bieber	TOR	+14	4.37	5.93	7.1	4.19	Bieber is back in business. His heater looked awesome in The Trop, and his offspeed pitches are being the CSW monsters they need to be to…
58	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	-	3.51	3.75	6.2	4.60	Despite what the line suggests, Pfaadt’s last start wasn’t an end to his Vargas Rule . It was a textbook Careful, Icarus with a three-run…
59	Christian Scott	NYM	+1	3.80	4.02	10.7	3.94	Scott has been happy to show us his floor, but the stuff is still there to propel him up The List at a moment’s notice. It’s felt a littl…

🔒 Closer Chart

Save targets · roles + regression flags.

BLUEEntrenched closer (highest leverage)GREENNext man up / committee pieceYELLOWSetup, 8th-inning leverageORANGESpeculative / lower priorityMAGENTAHigh-upside future / multi-inning

	Pitcher	Tm	Role	SV	SVHD	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K/9	Rtg / Own
Yours on the chart
—	Andrés Muñoz	Seattle Mariners	CL	24	24	48.3	4.28	1.22	3.31	14.3	5.0 · —
—	Louis Varland	Toronto Blue Jays	CL	31	36	68.7	1.18	0.98	2.18 ↑	11.0	5.0 · —
—	Justin Martinez	Arizona Diamondbacks	FU	0	0	3.7	0.00	1.09	3.24 ↑	9.8	1.0 · —
Top 5 FA closers (by team rating)
—	Andrew Kittredge	Baltimore Orioles	CL	8	17	42.3	3.19	1.37	3.94	7.4	4.0 · 2%
	Juan Morillo	Arizona Diamondbacks	CL	2	19	53.3	2.19	1.01	2.25	10.5	1.0 · 3%
	Calvin Faucher	Miami Marlins	CL	2	16	57.7	3.90	1.34	3.59	10.0	1.0 · 1%
	Dylan Smith	San Francisco Giants	CL	3	10	29.7	3.34	1.31	3.56	11.5	1.0 · 0%
	Orlando Ribalta	Washington Nationals	CL	2	14	42.0	3.86	1.24	3.77	8.6	1.0 · 0%

ERA cell: green <3.00 · red >4.50. xERA arrow: ↓ ERA likely to fall (buy) · ↑ ERA likely to rise (sell). Triggers when |xERA−ERA| ≥ 1.00.

✂️ Cut List

Drop priority · value, form, pedigree, role.

52	Royce Lewis 3B · Min low TV (17); cold last 7d sim cost ~0	TV 17 Rd 13
39	Justin Martinez RP · Ari low TV (17); BUT fresh-callup upside; BUT strong RoS (3.46 ERA) sim −0.07% win if cut	TV 17 UFDA
20	Ryan Jeffers C · Min mid TV (45); BUT top-tier keeper; BUT young breakout signal sim cost ~0	TV 45 UFDA
14	Kyle Harrison SP · Mil mid TV (60); UFDA — easy to drop; BUT top-tier keeper sim cost ~0	TV 60 UFDA
11	Sandy Alcantara SP · Mia BUT solid keeper sim cost ~0	TV 72 Rd 14

Higher score = drop sooner — top 5 by score, and only 8+ reaches the board, so the number has no ceiling and is only comparable within this list. The sim line is a roto-sim marginal (cut vs. keep on one shared set of draws), not a measured cost. Pedigree + named closers shielded.

🌱 Stash List

PL's top prospects · grab them cheap.

Hitters

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 23: Top 10 Hitting Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + PSS + PFV + age + 40-man + path.

22 available — 2 yours

W. Jenkins YOURS

OF · MIN · AAA · 21 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

14·18·.319

R. Velazquez YOURS

1B/C · CLE · AA · 20 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

28·2·.293

J. Tibbs III

OF · LAD · AAA · 23 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

27·8·.295

S. Walcott

3B/SS · TEX · AA · 23 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

6·8·.313

M. Arroyo

SS · SEA · AAA · 21 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

18·16·.281

S. Thompson

OF · COL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

12·16·.298

Z. Hope

OF · DET · AA · 21 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

26·23·.283

M. Anderson

2B · DET · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

16·5·.307

B. Davidson

OF · SFG · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

September

Szn

26·19·.281

J. Melton

OF · TB · AAA · 25 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

7·26·.284

C. Cannarella

OF · MIA · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

13·21·.332

R. Ward

LF · LAD · AAA · 28 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

20·7·.251

S. King

SS/2B/3B · WSN · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

19·14·.316

E. Salas

C · SDP · AAA · 20 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

September

Szn

10·17·.296

C. Ingle

C · CLE · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

18·2·.287

P. Harber

3B · SFG · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

'27

Szn

17·4·.281

J. Made

SS · MIL · AA · 19 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

13·35·.270

H. Mendez

OF · MIN · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

12·4·.278

Y. Morales

3B · WSN · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

25·6·.286

J. Long

1B · CHC · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

13·3·.276

K. Alderman

OF · MIA · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

18·10·.259

D. Crisantes

2B/3B · ARI · AAA · 21 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

9·0·.294

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

Pitchers

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 23: Top 10 Pitching Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + L3 quality + FV + age + 40-man + path.

27 available

L. Perales

SP · WSN · AAA · 23 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

100K·3.94

H. Smith

SP · CHW · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

August 1st

Szn

103K·3.76

B. Mautz

SP · STL · AAA · 24 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

99K·4.12

C. Seymour

SP · SFG · AAA · 27 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

86K·3.95

R. Snelling

SP · MIA · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

46K·2.38

J. Tong

SP · NYM · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

133K·4.46

R. Sloan

SP · nearly ready

PSS

100

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

117K·3.50

T. Bremner

SP · LAA · AA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

92K·4.08

T. Johnson

SP · TBR · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

84K·2.80

O. Murphy

SP · ATL · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

119K·3.95

M. Bratt

SP · ARI · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

81K·3.46

D. Davalillo

SP · TEX · AAA · 24 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

91K·5.01

M. Forret

SP · BAL · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

121K·3.83

C. Crow

SP · MIL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

97K·3.82

A. Kelly

SP · PIT · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

71K·4.55

J. Ritchie

SP · ATL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

118K·3.88

T. McDougal

SP · CHW · AAA · 23 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

47K·4.75

B. Garrett

SP · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

June 1st

Szn

105K·3.95

G. Wood

SP · PHI · AA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

124K·4.40

C. Dana

SP · LAA · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

72K·5.90

J. Wenninger

SP · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

110K·4.23

M. Ullola

SP · HOU · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

95K·4.35

T. Gibson

SP · BAL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

98K·5.13

B. Hopkins

SP · TBR · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

115K·5.40

K. Curtis

SP · PIT · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

113K·4.48

D. Sandlin

SP · CHW · MLB · 25 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

88K·3.46

L. Braun

SP · ATL · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

104K·3.64

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

🔭 11 not a 2026 factor — Liam Doyle · Bryce Mayer · Anthony Eyanson · Jamie Arnold · Joseph Dzierwa · Christian Zazueta · Jaxon Wiggins · Tyson Hardin · Jonathan Santucci · Jurrangelo Cijntje · Karson Milbrandt

💼 Trades

Buy-low targets · league trade history.

Top Buy-Lows

Rebound candidates · suggested offers.

Hitters

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Trent Grisham CF · NYY · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.3σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.211 / xBA 0.244 · xwOBA 0.338	30%	114 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 24 vs target 27)
📈 BUY-LOW	Juan Soto RF · NYM · GARR · jregarris +1.1σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.283 / xBA 0.298 · xwOBA 0.423	100%	159 wRC+	≈ 0.1%	Kyle Schwarber DH · comparable value (TV 100 vs target 100)
📈 BUY-LOW	JJ Bleday CF · Cin · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.2σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.218 / xBA 0.245 · xwOBA 0.349	23%	105 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 24 vs target 27)
📈 BUY-LOW	Ronald Acuna Jr. RF · Atl · GoOs · My Best Guys +1.1σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.241 / xBA 0.256 · xwOBA 0.364	98%	136 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Blake Snell SP + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 80 vs target 87)
📈 BUY-LOW	Heriberto Hernandez LF · Mia · FRAN · francisw789 +1.2σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.232 / xBA 0.248 · xwOBA 0.351	11%	99 wRC+	≈ 0.1%	Henry Bolte RF + Bryce Eldridge 1B · two-piece package (TV 28 vs target 33)
↑ mild buy	Taylor Ward LF · Sea · GoOs · My Best Guys +0.7σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.229 / xBA 0.243 · xwOBA 0.338	60%	118 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Kyle Harrison SP · comparable value (TV 60 vs target 60)
↑ mild buy	Dominic Canzone RF · Sea · GARR · jregarris +0.7σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.253 / xBA 0.269 · xwOBA 0.354	12%	114 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Henry Bolte RF + Bryce Eldridge 1B · two-piece package (TV 28 vs target 34)
↑ mild buy	Kyle Stowers LF · Mia · KNIG · TKHOO +0.7σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.242 / xBA 0.233 · xwOBA 0.330	27%	111 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 24 vs target 27)
↑ mild buy	Brandon Nimmo LF · Tex · DORN · Lambertmt48 +0.5σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.261 / xBA 0.278 · xwOBA 0.355	67%	119 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Royce Lewis 3B + Bryce Eldridge 1B · two-piece package (TV 42 vs target 45)
📈 BUY-LOW	Mike Trout OF · LAA · KNIG · TKHOO +1.4σ buy-low · OF — fits a need · BA 0.239 / xBA 0.251 · xwOBA 0.379	94%	128 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Randy Arozarena LF · comparable value (TV 72 vs target 77)

Pitchers

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Kodai Senga SP · NYM · KRTZ · FratSkins +1.3σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 7.50 vs xERA 5.10	9%	3.96 ERA	≈ 0.1%	Walker Jenkins CF · comparable value (TV 1 vs target 4)
📈 BUY-LOW	Kade Anderson SP · Sea · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.5σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.50 vs xERA 2.27	29%	4.52 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B + +$4 FAAB · comparable value (TV 24 vs target 32)
↑ mild buy	Freddy Peralta SP · TB · KNIG · TKHOO +0.7σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 5.11 vs xERA 3.96	70%	4.01 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Royce Lewis 3B + Bryce Eldridge 1B · two-piece package (TV 42 vs target 43)
↑ mild buy	Bryce Miller SP · Sea · BLOB · crenshawh19 +0.6σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.12 vs xERA 3.17	32%	4.10 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Jac Caglianone RF · comparable value (TV 52 vs target 48)

League History

Completed trades · frozen grade at the deal + live grade now.

Side	Sent	At deal	Now	Trend
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Andy Pages	A- +7	A+ +45	▲ up
Camp MVP	Pete Crow-Armstrong	C -7	F -45	▼ down
Team Knighton ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Team Knighton	Matthew Boyd	F -22	F -22
Camp MVP	Kenley Jansen	A+ +22	A+ +22
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Worst2First 2026-08-10
Miz-waukee’s Best	Charlie Condon, Payton Tolle	A+ +50	A+ +35	▼ down
Worst2First	Dylan Cease	F -50	F -35	▲ up
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Dorn and Associates LLC 2026-08-05
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Travis Bazzana, George Lombard Jr., Nolan McLean	A+ +144	A+ +107	▼ down
Dorn and Associates LLC	Jackson Chourio, Jhoan Duran, Brice Turang, David Bednar	F -144	F -107	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-07-31
Miz-waukee’s Best	Samuel Basallo, Kade Anderson	A- +8	A+ +42	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine	Blake Snell	C -8	F -42	▼ down
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Team Knighton 2026-07-23
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Jo Adell, Jacob deGrom	F -49	F -63	▼ down
Team Knighton	Trea Turner	A+ +49	A+ +63	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine ⇄ Miz-waukee’s Best 2026-07-19
Ramirez Against the Machine	Sandy Alcantara	F -42	F -68	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best	Josh Jung	A+ +42	A+ +68	▲ up
I need Buck Showalter ⇄ Hit the Damn Ball You Bums 2026-06-19
I need Buck Showalter	Nasim Nunez	A+ +28	B +1	▼ down
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Justin Wrobleski	F -28	B -1	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ The Boys of Summer 2026-06-12
Miz-waukee’s Best	Chandler Simpson	A +10	A- +7	▼ down
The Boys of Summer	$30 FAAB	D -10	C -7	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-05-01
Miz-waukee’s Best	Kenley Jansen	—	A- +7
Camp MVP	$30 FAAB	A- +3	C -7	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-04-22
Miz-waukee’s Best	Nathan Eovaldi, $70 FAAB	—	F -15
Ramirez Against the Machine	Jac Caglianone	A+ +60	A+ +15	▼ down

🔻 Sell-High — My Roster

Surface line outrunning the underlying skill — trade-value peaks. σ = his surface-stat z-score minus his Statcast-skill z-score, both against the league reference for his side — bigger σ = further ahead of the skill. Pair with Buy-Low Targets.

Verdict	Player	Own	Surface vs expected	Contact	2027 keeper
↓ SHOP	Henry Bolte RF · Oak 0.72σ sell-high · RF · BA 0.273 / xBA 0.243 · xwOBA 0.304 — test the market, don't force it	4%	BA 0.273 / xBA 0.243 +.030 wOBA 0.323 / xwOBA 0.304 +.019	HH 47.7% · Brl/PA 4.2%	25th · +2 rds vs mkt
↓ SHOP	Yandy Diaz 1B · TB 0.61σ sell-high · 1B · BA 0.303 / xBA 0.288 · xwOBA 0.356 — test the market, don't force it	93%	BA 0.303 / xBA 0.288 +.015 wOBA 0.364 / xwOBA 0.356 +.008	HH 47.6% · Brl/PA 5.3%	7th · +1 rd vs mkt
HOLD — KEEPER PRICE	Louis Varland RP · Tor 0.41σ sell-high · RP · ERA 1.18 vs xERA 2.18 — only move for keeper-grade return	86%	ERA 1.18 / xERA 2.18 -1.00	Brl 4.2% allowed	22nd · +16 rds vs mkt

👥 Your Roster

Your roster · news + buy/sell signals.

News (last 24h)

Player news · last 24h.

No news on your roster in the last 24 hours.

Leverage Buys/Sells

Buy/sell windows · surface vs. underlying.

Hitters

Player	Pos	MLB	BA	xBA	wOBA	xwOBA	Brl%	Own%	Signal
James Wood IL10	LF	Wsh	0.265	0.275	0.395	0.419	100.0	99.1	📈 BUY-LOW
Miguel Vargas	3B	ChW	0.249	0.268	0.368	0.389	93.0	95.3	📈 BUY-LOW
Kyle Schwarber	DH	Phi	0.244	0.239	0.378	0.366	98.0	99.5	📈 BUY-LOW
Bryce Eldridge	1B	SF	0.261	0.254	0.353	0.354	77.0	8.9	↑ mild buy
Zach Neto	SS	LAA	0.236	0.208	0.329	0.306	76.0	61.5	fair
Jac Caglianone	RF	KC	0.284	0.283	0.358	0.361	93.0	60.5	fair
Yandy Diaz	1B	TB	0.303	0.288	0.364	0.356	46.0	92.7	↓ mild fade
Cole Carrigg	CF	Col	0.261	0.254	0.339	0.321	—	13.3	fair
Ryan Jeffers	C	Min	0.270	0.251	0.366	0.351	70.0	39.3	fair
Randy Arozarena	LF	Sea	0.268	0.257	0.362	0.344	50.0	93.7	fair
Henry Bolte	RF	Oak	0.273	0.243	0.323	0.304	41.0	4.1	↓ mild fade
Kaelen Culpepper	SS	Min	0.313	0.262	0.367	0.326	—	7.0	fair
Royce Lewis	3B	Min	0.233	0.242	0.304	0.313	70.0	15.5	↑ mild buy
Walker Jenkins	CF	Min	0.222	0.216	0.285	0.294	12.5	9.6	—
Jordan Lawlar	3B	Ari	0.271	0.255	0.340	0.311	—	2.9	fair
Ralphy Velazquez	1B	Cle	—	—	—	—	—	0.8	—
Pedro Ramirez	3B	ChC	0.285	0.264	0.340	0.305	—	7.6	fair

Pitchers

Pitcher	Pos	MLB	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K-BB%	xwOBA-a	Brl%-a	Own%	Signal
Blake Snell	SP	LAD	26.0	2.42	1.08	2.09	22.0	0.225	1.7	89.2	↑ mild buy
Andres Munoz	RP	Sea	48.3	4.28	1.22	3.31	27.9	0.283	9.4	80.1	↑ mild buy
Joe Ryan IL15	SP	Min	125.7	4.08	1.15	3.48	21.2	0.290	10.5	89.7	fair
Jacob Misiorowski	SP	Mil	151.0	1.73	0.75	2.00	32.7	0.220	3.6	99.6	fair
Dylan Cease	SP	Tor	150.3	2.33	1.05	2.65	25.3	0.254	5.1	99.3	fair
Sandy Alcantara	SP	Mia	189.7	3.46	1.19	3.61	11.5	0.295	5.1	91.1	fair
Eury Perez	SP	Mia	130.7	3.44	1.13	3.72	16.2	0.299	9.3	79.9	fair
Kyle Harrison	SP	Mil	103.3	2.79	1.12	3.24	23.6	0.280	6.8	80.2	fair
Louis Varland	RP	Tor	68.7	1.18	0.98	2.18	24.7	0.230	4.2	86.5	↓ mild fade
Justin Martinez	RP	Ari	3.7	0.00	1.09	3.24	6.2	0.280	0.0	1.6	—

📰 MLB News — Top Fantasy Stories

🔒 Keepers — 2027 Slate

Peter's model (additive): rounds-saved (cost arbitrage spine) + current skill + career-grade pedigree + sample stability + Statcast over/under-performance trend, with age-decline (33+), closer/RP, and top-30 talent adjustments. Heavy on bargain-hunting.
Claude's model (multiplicative dynasty index): EFV(2027) = (3 + skill + upside) × age_mult × pos_mult; score = EFV − cost_replacement − mookie-lock. Compounds age curve and position scarcity.
Sorted by consensus rank (average of both models). MLB-inactive players surfaced in 🚑 Return Watch below.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict	Notes
1.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	21st	#1 (+24.4)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51	UFDA-G FV 55
2.5	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	25th	#2 (+23.8)	#3 (+19.8)	S · $20	UFDA
2.5	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	22nd	#3 (+21.4)	#2 (+27.1)	S · $27
5.0	Eury Perez	SP · 23yo	20th	#4 (+18.3)	#6 (+15.2)	A · $15	UFDA-G
5.0	Zach Neto	SS · 25yo	10th	#5 (+13.7)	#5 (+16.1)	A · $16
5.0	Dylan Cease	SP · 30yo	4th	#6 (+13.0)	#4 (+17.5)	A · $17
7.0	Sandy Alcantara	SP · 30yo	12th	#7 (+10.7)	#7 (+7.4)	B · $7
8.0	Yandy Diaz	1B · 34yo	7th	#8 (+9.0)	#8 (+1.5)	D · $2

NEW UFDA cap: Peter 1/3 · Claude 1/3 · BOTH = top 8 in both models. Peter only = his model values cost surplus more; Claude only = mine values projection / position scarcity more.

🚑 Return watch — would be keeper-eligible if they get MLB action this year. Rank shown is hypothetical (where they'd slot if eligible).

Player	Pos · Age	Cost	Peter (if elig.)	Claude (if elig.)
Walker Jenkins	CF · 20yo	25th	#10 (-0.4)	#8 (+2.0)
Ralphy Velazquez	1B · 19yo	25th	#10 (-2.0)	#9 (+1.4)

Updated Mon Aug 31 · 1:05 PM ET

🌍 League-Wide Top Keepers

Top 10 keepers · all 12 teams · both models. Yours in green.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	Team	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict
1.5	Jesus Luzardo	SP · 28yo	KNIG	21st	#1 (+28.9)	#2 (+42.1)	S · $42
3.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	MIZ	21st	#5 (+24.4)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51
3.5	Bryan Baker	RP · 31yo	DORN	25th	#3 (+25.1)	#4 (+38.7)	S · $39
5.5	Jose Soriano	SP · 27yo	BLOB	25th	#2 (+25.3)	#9 (+29.9)	S · $30
7.0	Nolan McLean	SP · 23yo	DORN	20th	#9 (+22.4)	#5 (+32.7)	S · $33
7.0	Cam Schlittler	SP · 24yo	KRTZ	19th	— (+19.5)	#3 (+40.8)	S · $41
7.5	Payton Tolle	SP · 22yo	FRST	25th	#4 (+24.9)	— (+21.2)	S · $21
8.5	Taj Bradley	SP · 25yo	GoOs	25th	#6 (+24.2)	— (+21.2)	S · $21
8.5	Parker Messick	SP · 24yo	GARR	18th	#10 (+22.2)	#7 (+31.7)	S · $32
8.5	Gavin Williams	SP · 26yo	THAR	11th	— (+12.8)	#6 (+32.4)	S · $32
9.0	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	MIZ	25th	#7 (+23.8)	— (+19.8)	S · $20
9.5	Michael Wacha	SP · 34yo	GoOs	25th	#8 (+22.7)	— (+16.9)	A · $17
9.5	Foster Griffin	SP · 30yo	GoOs	25th	— (+22.0)	#8 (+29.9)	S · $30
10.5	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	MIZ	22nd	— (+21.4)	#10 (+27.1)	S · $27

Updated Mon Aug 31 · 1:05 PM ET

🏚️ Keeper Cupboards

Every team's six best keepers · shade = dual-model consensus value. Cupboard score weights the top four heavily (the slots that get kept), keepers 5–8 taper. 100 = league's best cupboard.

Team	K1	K2	K3	K4	K5	K6	Cupboard
1MIZ	MisiorowskiR21	VargasR25	VarlandR22	PerezR20	NetoR10	CeaseR4	100
2KNIG	LuzardoR21	MartinezR25	RodriguezR25	deGromR13	ParedesR14	AlbiesR8	83
3KRTZ	SchlittlerR19	BurkeR25	StewartR10	HolmesR25	IIR5	ColeR11	75
4DORN	BakerR25	McLeanR20	WarrenR25	KingR6	WalkerR9	NimmoR5	72
5THAR	RasmussenR8	WilliamsR11	MizeR19	O'BrienR17	BazR13	SkenesR1	67
6FRAN	CavalliR21	BradishR21	LatzR25	ContrerasR11	HarrisR25	BichetteR4	59
7BLOB	SorianoR25	ScottR25	SuarezR12	ArandaR14	SaleR1	TaylorR25	59
8GoOs	BradleyR25	GriffinR25	MegillR6	IglesiasR5	WachaR25	MeidrothR25	59
9PEYT	SanchezR9	CameronR18	WooR8	NolaR16	CruzR1	RodonR14	54
10GARR	MessickR18	GoreR8	GrayR7	BuschR11	AbbottR15	MontgomeryR9	52
11FRST ▼ thin	TolleR25	WheelerR8	SkubalR1	RogersR9			45
12RAGE ▼ thin	CamineroR5	BibeeR14	ImanagaR9	TorresR17	GausmanR4		41

The bottom two rows are your trade marks — thin cupboards pay up for keepable pieces.

data: snap 5h · BP 6d · PL 6d · HL 3d · PSS 2h · BR 0h · FG 3h · proj 4h · closer 0h · oyster 24h · AAA-sc 14h · cookie ok