Miz-waukee’s Best — The Brandon League

Last updated Sunday, September 20 · 09:05 AM ET

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Any player in the league universe · tap a result for the card.

☕ Morning Briefing

🏆 MIZ holds 1st place with 102.5 roto points, 14.5 clear of #2 Photogenic Nick Kurtz — though Nick's climbed +6.0 pts over 9 days, so the cushion is real but not a gift.

⚡ Your bats delivered yesterday: Miguel Vargas went 1-2, 2R, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 SB, 2 BB vs. Tigers, Randy Arozarena added 1-4, 1 R, 1 HR, 1 RBI vs. Rockies, and Jac Caglianone chipped in 2-3, 2 R, 1 RBI, 1 SB, 2 BB vs. Pirates — three guys contributing across HR, R, RBI, and SB. On the mound, Joe Ryan was serviceable but not sharp (5 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K vs. Angels), and Eury Perez took a beating (4.2 IP, 5 ER). Tonight, confirm Jacob Misiorowski and Sandy Alcantara are active.

📊 Two category alerts worth your attention: the Wins category is dead level with W. DORN — one start outcome flips a roto point either way — and you're trailing FRST by 0.00 ERA, meaning Robert Suarez's rehab assignment (owned by FRST) is one to watch as a potential ratio threat if he returns.

🚨 Actionable closer news: Washington flipped the closer job from Jack Sinclair to Will Dion, who is a free agent. In a 5x5 saves league, a new closer with no ownership is a priority add. Separately, Pittsburgh's Mason Montgomery (owned by FRAN) retained his job but his role-security rating shifted to magenta — worth monitoring.

📰 On the transaction wire, the Rangers moved into sole possession of the AL West lead, which keeps the Texas roster in winning-game mode through the stretch — relevant for anyone holding Rangers starters or relievers. Pavin Smith hit a pinch-hit two-run homer for Arizona last night, a data point consistent with the early contact-heat signal (L7 83/99, 0.487 xwOBAcon) on the fact sheet, though the sample remains small. Neither Smith nor Carson Benge (who set the Mets' rookie hit record with 156 hits) appears available as a confirmed free agent, so treat both as league-watch items rather than targets.

ELIGIBILITYK. Schwarber 1B 8/10T. Saggese 3B 8/10L. Bernal 1B 2/10

Your standing

1stof 12

102.5 roto pts +14.5 clear of 2nd

-1.5 pts vs last update

Top Gaps

W (6.5)

categories below mid-pack

Score change since last update

ERA -1.0W -0.5

🎯 Category Pressure

Category ranks vs. the league.

Rank →

Δ to #1

1031

1115

🥇

294

328

🥇

RBI

978

1012

🥇

160

164

178

214

+50

AVG

.254

.255

.256

.260

+0.004

1294

1308

1495

+187

+15

105

+19

ERA

3.57

3.45

−0.00

WHIP

1.18

1.17

1.16

−0.01

📅 Yesterday's MIZ Box Scores (2026-09-19)

Loading box scores…

🏥 IL Rehab Tracker

IL players · rehab game logs.

On the IL, no rehab games yet: Kaelen Culpepper (IL10), Spencer Schwellenbach (IL60 · watch).

📊 League Activity (last 24h)

All adds, drops, and trades across the 12 teams.

Team	Move
Phil Swift's Flex Seal	+ Bryan Abreu \| − Aaron Judge
Phil Swift's Flex Seal	+ Tyler Rogers \| − Dustin May
Miz-waukee’s Best	+ Richie Palacios \| − Connor Norby
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	+ Robert Gasser \| − Dedniel Nunez

🏆 League Standings

Current roto points · 10,000-sim projected finish. FAAB = acquisition budget remaining.

100.0% to win the league · proj finish 1.0 · 101.3 roto pts

#	Team	Pts	FAAB	Win%	Proj Pts	Range	Proj Rk
1	MIZ Miz-waukee’s Best	102.5	$0	100.0%	101.3	99–104	1.0
2	KRTZ Photogenic Nick Kurtz	88.0	$10	0.0%	88.9	87–91	2.4
3	PEYT Phil Swift's Flex Seal	87.0	$19	0.0%	89.0	87–91	2.4
4	FRAN Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	81.0	$23	0.0%	81.3	79–84	4.0
5	BLOB Camp MVP	69.0	$168	0.0%	70.3	68–72	5.0
6	GoOs I need Buck Showalter	61.0	$170	0.0%	61.1	58–64	6.2
7	THAR Phil Mickeltits	59.5	$176	0.0%	58.4	56–60	7.4
8	KNIG Team Knighton	59.5	$132	0.0%	59.3	57–61	7.0
9	FRST Worst2First	48.5	$154	0.0%	48.1	46–50	9.2
10	GARR The Boys of Summer	46.5	$155	0.0%	47.4	46–49	9.6
11	DORN Dorn and Associates LLC	44.0	$89	0.0%	43.8	42–46	11.0
12	RAGE Ramirez Against the Machine	33.5	$163	0.0%	31.1	30–32	12.0

10,000 sims · fixed seed · noise CV talent 0.12 / idio 0.06 / team-cat 0.08 · assumes ATC rest-of-season rates

Your categories · projected roto points

R 12.0HR 12.0RBI 12.0SB 9.0AVG 8.8W 6.0SV 9.0K 10.3ERA 11.3WHIP 11.0

Winnable — push here: SB, AVG, W, SV.

🚨 Today's Streaming Board

173 of 200 GS · should be 192 · 19 behindBehind pace — stream aggressively

027 left · ~27.0/wk to cap · proj 180200

⏳ BP's post is late — Verdict pill is running on our score + Pitcher List for now (BP joins the top-2 once it posts).

Your starters + top FA streamers

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Jacob Misiorowski	@ BAL	AUTO START	—	6.5	#5	Start day uncertain; cap on Win/QS odds, limited to ratio/K
Sandy Alcantara	@ SD	DART	—	3.6	#11	Too hittable; banking on heater/changeup generating more strikes.
Jonah Tong	vs PHI	START⚠ opener	—	6.8	#13	High ceiling, low floor; Vulcan change reliable but outcome coin-flip.
Quinn Mathews	vs WSH	DART	—	5.1	#14	Two wins over Giants unimpressive; slider fading late in season.
Dean Kremer	@ LAA	DARTleash	—	5.3	#16	Pitch count capped; cutter/splitter working, heavy cutter usage to RHB.
Ryan Johnson	vs MIN	DART	—	3.6	#12	Sinker usage dropped, velocity dipped; cutter/sweeper carrying him.
Martin Perez	@ HOU	DART	—	4.5	#15	ERA and Win viable; WHIP and strikeouts are liabilities.
Matt Wilkinson	@ LAD	SIT	—	4.0	—	tough LAD lineup
Jack Perkins	@ CLE	SIT⚠ opener	—	4.6	#18	Punchout upside only; volume and ratio ceiling severely limited.
Davis Martin	vs DET	SIT	—	5.3	#24	Lucky last outing; regression expected against tougher opposition.
Corbin Burnes	vs NYY	SITleash	—	5.0	#22	57-pitch cap last time; cutter velocity/shape degraded, tough lineup.
Patrick Sandoval	@ TB	SIT	—	3.0	—	soft TB lineup, shaky recent form, short leash

Openers filtered: Spencer Miles, Lake Bachar

Your staff: 3.45 ERA / 1.17 WHIP · GS 173/200 — Behind pace — stream aggressively. Verdict = the best 2 of BP · our score · Pitcher List, averaged (low outlier dropped); before BP posts it's our score + PL. ⚠ = our matchup score dissented — eyeball that one. Tap a MIZ score for the reasoning.

Quinn Mathewsvs WSH LHP5.1

WSH off .774 OPS · tough matchupskill 75 pctlL21: 2.04 ERA / 1.19 WHIPL14 contact -0.1 (.361 xwOBAcon-against, 34 BBE)~5.7 IP/startexp 3.19 ERA ↓ helps (you 3.45)exp 1.32 WHIP ↑ hurts (you 1.17)GS 173/200 · Behind pace — stream aggressively

matchup

skill

form

win

park

📼 Streamer Report Card

Does the Streaming Board actually work? Every pick it showed, frozen at pick time and graded off the real box score. Two scoreboards below: first our own calls — the Verdict ladder and MIZ (our matchup score, 0–10) — then the outside lists behind them, BP (RelieverRecon's daily BP Streamers post) and PL (Pitcher List's tier ranking). Grades are recomputed from raw lines on every build — the rubric can change, the history follows.

Last 30d · 341 starts graded over 29 days · GOOD+ 44% · BLOWUP 18% · agg ERA 4.48 · WHIP 1.39 · 4.4 K/start · 378 picks logged, 25 never started, 12 awaiting a box score — not graded

Grade mix · all 341 graded starts

GEM 53 GOOD 96 OK 129 BLOWUP 63

GEM6+ IP, ≤1 ER · or 6+ IP, 8+ K, ≤2 ERGOODquality start (6+ IP, ≤3 ER) · or 5+ IP, ≤2 EROKheld the line without earning GOODBLOWUP5+ ER · or under 4 IP with 4+ ERGOOD+ = GEM + GOOD. A pick whose starter never took the ball grades to nothing and leaves every rate below.

Cohort	n	GOOD+	BLOWUP	ERA
Q1 — Do our own calls work? · Verdict ladder + MIZ bands · live board rows only, nothing backfilled
Verdict · AUTO START	20	60%	20%	4.04
Verdict · START	52	58%	13%	4.18
Verdict · DART	83	42%	20%	4.75
Verdict · SIT	186	39%	19%	4.51
MIZ ≥ 5.0	110	55%	22%	4.37
MIZ 3.5–4.9	134	39%	18%	4.66
MIZ < 3.5	77	39%	17%	4.65
All live board picks	341	44%	18%	4.48
Q1 read — GOOD+ falls 60% · 58% · 42% · 39% down the rungs, but BLOWUP does not rise with it, and MIZ does not sort: 55% · 39% · 39% from the top band down.
Q2 — Which outside list earns the weight? · BP and PL graded on their own published lists · mostly rebuilt from git
PL · Auto Start	22	55%	23%	4.76
PL · Probably Start	55	53%	13%	4.10
PL · Questionable Start	95	49%	19%	4.37
PL · Do Not Start	141	38%	20%	4.72
BP · Auto thin	3	67%	0%	3.78
BP · Likely	14	57%	21%	4.17
All graded picks	341	44%	18%	4.48
Q2 read — against the 44% all-picks baseline, PL's top tiers clear it (55% · 53%) and BP's top tiers are too thin to call (67% · 57% on n=3 · n=14).

Rows are overlapping lenses on the same picks, not a partition — one start can be a PL Auto Start and a Verdict SIT at once, so they never sum to the headline; each group is read against its own baseline row.

⚠ Dissent check — n=4, too thin to read. Splits are picks the board started over our MIZ sit-call (vs 44% for all live picks).

Calibration — do our numbers mean anything? · full season, 2026-06-29→2026-09-19 · 1121 graded picks · MIZ on 572, BP on 230, Verdict on 602

The ladder above asks whether the tiers sort. This asks the harder question: is the number a probability — when the board says 7, do 70% of those starts come back GOOD+? Bins are equal-count and merge until every one clears n=15; the walk-forward rows are scored against a model that only ever saw earlier days.

Score bin	n	mean	GOOD+	95% CI
MIZ score → P(GOOD+) · our matchup score, 0–10 · live rows only · n=572
MIZ 0.5–3.3	131	2.7	40%	32%–49%
MIZ 3.4–4.0	103	3.7	42%	33%–51%
MIZ 4.1–4.8	117	4.4	49%	40%–58%
MIZ 4.9–5.6	112	5.2	51%	42%–60%
MIZ 5.7–8.9	109	6.4	57%	48%–66%
All MIZ-scored picks	572	—	48%	—
BP score → P(GOOD+) · RelieverRecon's published rating · includes git-backfilled rows · n=230
BP 4.6–6.6	48	6.1	35%	23%–50%
BP 6.7–7.3	44	7.0	52%	38%–66%
BP 7.4–7.7	47	7.5	45%	31%–59%
BP 7.8–8.4	47	8.1	47%	33%–61%
BP 8.5–10.0	44	9.1	43%	30%–58%
All BP-scored picks	230	—	44%	—
Verdict tier → P(GOOD+) · the consensus call itself · live rows only
AUTO START	36	—	64%	48%–78%
START	82	—	57%	47%–67%
DART	160	—	46%	38%–53%
SIT	324	—	44%	39%–49%

Out-of-sample	n	value	vs
Walk-forward probability · logistic on MIZ, refit daily on earlier days only · from 2026-08-05 · 45 days
Brier — our probability	508	0.249	lower is better
Brier — flat base rate to date	508	0.253	we win by 0.004
Brier — verdict-tier history	508	0.253	we win by 0.004
Log loss — our probability	508	0.691	lower is better
ECE — our probability	508	0.065	5 equal-count bins
ECE bins · predicted p vs what actually happened
said 31%–45%	103	41%	off by 1%
said 45%–49%	100	37%	off by 11%
said 50%–55%	102	46%	off by 6%
said 55%–59%	101	48%	off by 9%
said 59%–74%	102	57%	off by 6%
Verdict — usable with caveats: ECE 0.065 over n=508 out-of-sample picks (≤0.03 well calibrated · ≤0.07 usable with caveats); edges the flat base rate on Brier (0.249 vs 0.253, a thin margin; log-loss ~coin-flip).

🔥 Today's Hitter Streamers

Top 10 FA bats for today's slate · score = split vs SP hand (35%) + SP softness (35%) + bat quality (15%) + trailing 15 days (10%) + park (5%) · facing an elite arm fades the score hard (feast on weak pitchers).

#	Hitter	Matchup	Why	Legs	Score
1	AUTO STARTBrendan Donovan2B · 32% own	@ COL · Sugano RHP	szn .314 xwOBAbeats 5 of 5 eligible startersSugano .384 allowed · soft SP0.936 OPS vs RHP (89 AB)COL plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	83
2	AUTO STARTRyan ViladeRF · 0% own	vs BOS · Sandoval LHP	szn .334 xwOBAusually bats 2nd (×1.10)fills OF needbeats 9 of 10 eligible startersSandoval .350 allowed · soft SP0.841 OPS vs LHP (143 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	76
3	AUTO STARTEduardo Valencia1B · 3% own	@ CWS · Martin RHP	szn .339 xwOBAL14 contact +1.1 (.395 xwOBAcon, 16 BBE)usually bats 5thbeats 3 of 4 eligible startersMartin .330 allowed · soft SP0.954 OPS vs RHP (57 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	74
4	STARTMickey GasperC · 9% own	@ TB · Jax RHP	szn .366 xwOBAL15: 0.547 OPS (36 PA)L14 contact -4.7 (.265 xwOBAcon, 21 BBE)usually bats 2nd (×1.10)beats 2 of 4 eligible startersJax .322 allowed · avg SP0.919 OPS vs RHP (158 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	66
5	STARTRyan JeffersC · 38% own	@ LAA · Johnson RHP	szn .351 xwOBAL15: 0.476 OPS (43 PA)L14 contact -2.5 (.315 xwOBAcon, 26 BBE)usually bats 3rd (×1.07)beats 1 of 2 eligible startersJohnson .343 allowed · soft SP0.828 OPS vs RHP (192 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	65
6	AUTO STARTJ.P. CrawfordSS · 6% own	@ COL · Sugano RHP	szn .326 xwOBAL15: 0.653 OPS (60 PA)L14 contact -2.2 (.322 xwOBAcon, 42 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)beats 5 of 5 eligible startersSugano .384 allowed · soft SP0.707 OPS vs RHP (267 AB)COL plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	63
7	AUTO STARTMichael ConfortoLF · 0% own	@ CIN · Lowder RHP	szn .331 xwOBAL15: 0.932 OPS (37 PA)L14 contact -3.2 (.300 xwOBAcon, 22 BBE)usually bats 7th (×0.95)fills OF needbeats 4 of 6 eligible startersLowder .351 allowed · soft SP0.792 OPS vs RHP (240 AB)CIN plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	63
8	STARTRafael Flores Jr.1B · 2% own	vs KC · Wacha RHP	szn .341 xwOBAL15: 1.077 OPS (42 PA)L14 contact +3.7 (.452 xwOBAcon, 27 BBE)usually bats 4th (×1.05)beats 2 of 4 eligible startersshort side vs RHP — 51% of ABWacha .305 allowed · avg SP0.814 OPS vs RHP (66 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	61
9	AUTO STARTKyle Karros3B · 2% own	vs SEA · Anderson LHP	szn .340 xwOBAL15: 0.727 OPS (47 PA)L14 contact +1.7 (.407 xwOBAcon, 33 BBE)usually bats 6th (×0.98)beats 3 of 3 eligible startersAnderson .317 allowed · avg SP0.818 OPS vs LHP (135 AB)COL plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	56
10	AUTO STARTLars NootbaarLF · 2% own	vs NYY · Warren RHP	szn .343 xwOBAL15: 0.728 OPS (43 PA)L14 contact +0.2 (.374 xwOBAcon, 23 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)fills OF needbeats 4 of 6 eligible startersWarren .322 allowed · avg SP0.75 OPS vs RHP (223 AB)AZ plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	56

Tiers vs YOUR lineup tonight — median starter 48, worst Kyle Schwarber (27). AUTO START = beats the median eligible starter.

TBD starter = neutral SP + split legs until the probable posts (refresh upgrades it). Splits need 30+ AB vs that hand. IL bats are excluded; bats who rarely start against tonight's hand are dropped. Doubleheaders: legs average the ends he plays, and everyday bats get up to a ×1.50 volume boost. Lineup slot scales the score by expected PAs from the bat's usual spot (leadoff ×1.12 … 9-hole ×0.90, modal over the last ~10 played days) — his typical order, not today's card, since that posts after waivers run.

🎯 FA Hitters — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Kyle Schwarber

1Ty France1B · SD · 15.7%BEST VALUE

Largest trusted sample (36 BBE, Heat 76), .462 BA last 7, best RoS PA volume, AVG boost near rank boundary

Heat 76 · 36 BBE · ATC 33 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.259 · L7 0.462 · 1 HR · sim +0.1 pts

2Xander Bogaerts

SS · SD · 19.2% · CATEGORY FIT

Only SB contributor (1 projected), AVG-positive, 32 PA volume, SB rank 4 with gap of 14 to 3rd

L7 flare 75 · ATC 32 PA · 1 HR · 1 SB · 0.260 · L7 0.318 · 1 HR · sim +0.1 pts

3Rafael Flores Jr.

1B · Pit · 2.4% · HEATER

27 BBE trusted sample, .444 BA last 7, .452 xwOBAcon drives AVG where MIZ needs ticks

Heat 76 · 27 BBE · ATC 17 PA · 0 HR · 0 SB · 0.234 · L7 0.444 · 1 HR · sim +0.1 pts

4Brett Baty

3B · NYM · 2.8% · HEATER

Highest Heat score 85/99 on 23 BBE trusted sample, .454 xwOBAcon, AVG-positive contribution

Heat 85 · 23 BBE · ATC 22 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.236 · L7 0.316 · 0 HR · sim +0.1 pts

5Connor Norby

3B · Col · 3.0% · CATEGORY FIT

2 SB last 7 days addresses MIZ's tightest gap; 27 BBE Heat 71 corroborates .450 BA

Heat 71 · 27 BBE · ATC 24 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.254 · L7 0.45 · 0 HR · sim +0.1 pts

Passed on: Austin Wells has a scorching xwOBAcon (0.525) and 3 HR last 7 but only 10 BBE — sub-threshold flare without enough corroboration to trust over France's volume or Bogaerts' category fit.

💪 Hitter List Rankings

PL Top 150 hitters · your bats + top FAs.

On Hitter List · 17 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Hitter	MLB	Pos	Chg	AVG	xwOBA	HR	SB	RoS	Chu’s Take
16	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	DH	+3	.235	.364	45	3	123
18	Randy Arozarena	SEA	OF	-	.281	.347	26	23	127
21	Miguel Vargas	CHW	1B/3B	+19	.250	.378	33	20	115	Miguel Vargas has returned to the levels we saw early this summer and that really revs my engine. He’s one of those players who has shown…
36	Yandy Díaz	TB	1B	+3	.293	.347	22	3	122
46	Zach Neto	LAA	SS	+11	.239	.312	26	21	111	Zach Neto has been a monster over the last nine games, with 17 hits, 18 combined runs and RBI (a seven RBI night helps), and seven extra-…
59	Jac Caglianone	KC	1B/OF	+13	.279	.353	23	7	107	Jac Caglianone still hits a lot of grounders, but not quite as many as before (the rolling 15-game rate is a hair below 50%) and the stri…
72	Ty France	SD	1B	+12	.304	.335	21	1	108
77	Royce Lewis	MIN	1B/2B/3B	-15	.228	.307	14	15	96	Royce Lewis is streaky. We just gotta deal with that.
85	Cole Carrigg	COL	SS/OF	-22	.271	.311	10	11	66	The strikeouts have creeped up on Cole Carrigg , up to 32% over his last 11 games (which is, conveniently, exactly 50 plate appearances).…
106	Luis Robert Jr.	BAL	OF	+UR	.221	.321	11	2	100
109	Mickey Gasper	BOS	C/1B	+UR	.260	.366	9	0	104	Mickey Gasper — Fantastic mustache, first of all. Second of all, the batted ball data suggests what’s happening of late is very real, tho…
114	Joshua Báez	STL	OF	+UR	.230	.303	7	2	—	Joshua Báez — The 40% strikeout rate is as believable as the power, though I do expect another homer outburst or two before the season is…
115	Kaelen Culpepper	MIN	SS	+UR	.275	.298	3	1	90	Kaelen Culpepper — Culpepper puts a lot of balls in play and it’s working out so far. The BABIP Gods can be cruel, though. The 55 point g…
119	Rafael Flores Jr.	PIT	C/1B	+UR	.277	.341	9	0	82
133	Connor Norby	COL	1B/2B/3B	+UR	.245	.308	7	10	90	Connor Norby still has huge contact issues but the guy can hit the ball hard in the air and plays for Colorado so stream away.
135	Henry Bolte	ATH	OF	+UR	.273	.318	11	21	93	Henry Bolte is leading off again and should get some games in Sacramento soon, if you need a streamer.
137	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	BAL	1B/3B	+UR	.267	.338	10	1	91
143	Alejandro Kirk	TOR	C	+UR	.282	.310	10	1	113
145	Tyler Stephenson	CIN	C	-33	.248	.331	15	0	94
TS	Bryce Eldridge	SF	1B	—	.269	.359	17	1	99	Bryce Eldridge (1B, SFG) — Power prospects can often take a while to really shine.
TS	Walker Jenkins	Min	OF	—	.211	.301	3	1	102	Walker Jenkins (OF, MIN) — Jenkins will get the call today after a white-hot month in the triple-A. He’s worth a scoop in most leagues, E…
UR	Emmanuel Rodriguez	Min	OF	—	.172	.366	1	0	95	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	James Wood	Wsh	OF	—	.267	.412	30	21	126	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Leo Bernal	StL	C	—	.310	.385	3	0	84	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Richie Palacios	TB	2B/OF	—	.234	.310	10	15	82	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Thomas Saggese	StL	2B/SS/OF	—	.254	.317	4	4	83	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Victor Mesa Jr.	TB	OF	—	.249	.334	13	9	88	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.

🔥 Heat Board

Hottest ACTIVE free-agent bats by contact quality, 9/6–9/19 · Heat = percentile vs all MLB bats over the same window (xwOBAcon 30 · EV 20 · Brl 20 · HH 15 · K 10 · BB 5) · min 15 BBE to qualify (smaller samples live in the HM rail) · IL excluded.

Brett Baty

3B · NYM · 2.8% own · xwOBAcon .454 · EV 94.4 · Brl 17.4% · 23 BBE

▲ .124 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.233	10	51	50	5
L14	.357	2	5	5	0

Agustin Ramirez

C · Mia · 32.2% own · xwOBAcon .516 · EV 94.6 · Brl 12.5% · 16 BBE

▲ .085 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.235	5	23	29	4
L14	.320	2	5	3	0

Eduardo Valencia

1B · Det · 2.7% own · xwOBAcon .395 · EV 91.6 · Brl 12.5% · 16 BBE

▲ .088 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.324	6	18	19	0
L14	.412	0	0	5	0

Ty France

1B · SD · 15.7% own · xwOBAcon .423 · EV 91.6 · Brl 11.1% · 36 BBE

▲ .111 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.304	21	70	56	1
L14	.415	1	8	6	0

Rafael Flores Jr.

1B · Pit · 2.4% own · xwOBAcon .452 · EV 92.2 · Brl 11.1% · 27 BBE

▲ .140 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.277	9	20	15	0
L14	.417	2	3	3	0

Kyle Teel

C · ChW · 4.0% own · xwOBAcon .478 · EV 88.2 · Brl 18.8% · 16 BBE

▲ .006 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.182	4	20	15	0
L14	.188	2	6	6	0

Nathaniel Lowe

1B · Cle · 1.5% own · xwOBAcon .397 · EV 91.3 · Brl 13.6% · 22 BBE

▲ .004 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.255	17	59	38	0
L14	.259	2	6	3	0

Connor Norby

3B · Col · 3.0% own · xwOBAcon .436 · EV 90.3 · Brl 14.8% · 27 BBE

▲ .150 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.245	7	32	36	10
L14	.395	1	5	6	2

Kyle Karros

3B · Col · 2.4% own · xwOBAcon .407 · EV 90.8 · Brl 12.1% · 33 BBE

▼ .044 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.258	12	48	61	5
L14	.214	2	4	3	0

Randal Grichuk

RF · ChW · 0.4% own · xwOBAcon .402 · EV 92.7 · Brl 3.4% · 29 BBE

▲ .097 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.285	13	39	36	0
L14	.382	2	5	4	0

Honorable mention · hottest L7 (9/13–9/19), not yet on the board · tiny samples — peek, don't trust

Alex Freeland

3B · LAD

.446 xwOBAcon

11 BBE · .385 L7

Pavin Smith

1B · Ari

.487 xwOBAcon

11 BBE · .286 L7

Austin Wells

C · NYY

.525 xwOBAcon

10 BBE · .333 L7

Moises Ballesteros

C · LAA

.435 xwOBAcon

17 BBE · .300 L7

Xander Bogaerts

SS · SD

.475 xwOBAcon

15 BBE · .318 L7

Angel Martinez

CF · Cle

.450 xwOBAcon

11 BBE · .462 L7

🎯 FA Pitchers — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Andres Munoz

1Martin PerezSP · Atl · 13.7%HEATER

98th-percentile suppression on 42 BBE is elite, trusted sample; ratio-safe for top-2 ERA/WHIP protection

Supp 98 · 42 BBE · ATC 8.0 IP · 0 W · 6 K · 4.44 · 1.38 · PL #15 · sim -0.5 pts

2Dylan Smith

RP · SF · 0.3% · CATEGORY FIT

Closer role confirmed, SV-positive sim, decent suppression on 18 BBE; ratio-safe enough to protect ERA/WHIP

Supp 63 · 18 BBE · ATC 3.0 IP · 0 W · 3 K · 3.84 · 1.31 · 1 SV · Closer · sim -0.2 pts

3Juan Morillo

RP · Ari · 3.1% · UPSIDE

Closer role confirmed, SV upside; 14-BBE suppression needs caveat but xwOBAcon 0.224 is elite

Supp 82 · 14 BBE · ATC 3.0 IP · 0 W · 3 K · 3.83 · 1.36 · 1 SV · Closer · sim -0.2 pts

4Christian Scott

SP · NYM · 12.5% · BEST VALUE

Best SP K-rate projection, 81st-pct suppression on 38 BBE; ratio-safe, streams into GS cap room

Supp 81 · 38 BBE · ATC 7.0 IP · 0 W · 8 K · 4.04 · 1.24 · sim -0.5 pts

5Steven Cruz

RP · KC · 1.3% · CATEGORY FIT

Closer role confirmed, SV tick available; suppression mediocre but ratio exposure manageable at 3 IP

Supp 36 · 15 BBE · ATC 3.0 IP · 0 W · 3 K · 4.24 · 1.31 · 1 SV · Closer · sim -0.2 pts

Passed on: Ryan Johnson ranked #12 by Pitcher List but projects 4.88 ERA/1.40 WHIP — adding him risks bleeding MIZ's razor-thin ERA and WHIP leads for minimal wins/K gain.

⚾ Pitcher List Rankings

PL Top 100 SP · your arms + top FAs.

On Pitcher List · 6 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Pitcher	MLB	Chg	ERA	xERA	K/9	RoS	Pollack’s Take
1	Jacob Misiorowski	MIL	-	1.89	2.08	13.1	3.40	Like a base set Charizard, Misiorowski’s not gonna stop being dope.
9	Blake Snell	LAD	+7	1.86	2.16	12.1	3.31	#HotSnellSummer is in full swing.
10	Dylan Cease	TOR	-1	2.40	2.91	12.7	3.45	Like a perfect burger without the condiments to hit all your macros, Cease gives you everything except for a stable WHIP due to his infla…
20	Kyle Harrison	MIL	+8	4.25	3.96	10.9	4.19	With a dominant outing, he muted our concerns, but Harrison’s still displaying decreased velocity and not commanding as well as he did in…
22	Eury Pérez	MIA	-4	4.17	4.10	9.6	3.91	Pérez has the stuff to be an ace, but there’s polishing to do in the command and game plan departments to unlock his full potential.
29	Sean Burke	CHW	-4	3.40	3.82	9.6	4.43	Burke’s hot streak has come to a brief pause, but he’s still doing everything he’s supposed to with elite four-seamers upstairs and suppo…
30	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	-4	3.84	3.90	6.5	4.17	Baseball’s premier innings eater hasn’t ruined his appetite.
38	Jacob Lopez	ATH	+6	5.68	3.51	8.3	4.55	It’s the 2025 hot streak all over again. Enjoy the ride, ya’ll!
39	Dustin May	MIL	-	4.61	4.40	8.8	4.18	May got Singled Out in a disastrous performance, but his stuff is still dope, and his new situation is ideal. Higher win chance, great de…
40	Walbert Ureña	LAA	-	2.74	3.28	8.7	4.49	Armed with upper-90s heaters and one of the best changeups in baseball, Ureña has hit few speed bumps. If that developing sweeper becomes…
45	Peter Lambert	HOU	-4	3.70	3.66	8.8	4.61	Lambert’s stumble last time was a product of being Singled Out . He’s been reliable all year, but we should be recognizing that Holly is …
46	Jared Jones	PIT	-8	4.17	3.43	10.8	3.97	The stuff is top-tier, but he’s still shaking off the Tommy John surgery rust with his command and the tight leash the Pirates have on hi…
54	Joey Cantillo	CLE	-8	3.74	4.04	9.8	4.05	Efficiency is a problem, but Cantillo is doing everything we want. More curveballs, faster fastballs, and supportive cutters. Throw more …
56	Shane Bieber	TOR	+14	4.37	5.97	7.1	—	Bieber is back in business. His heater looked awesome in The Trop, and his offspeed pitches are being the CSW monsters they need to be to…
58	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	-	3.72	3.85	6.1	4.67	Despite what the line suggests, Pfaadt’s last start wasn’t an end to his Vargas Rule . It was a textbook Careful, Icarus with a three-run…
59	Christian Scott	NYM	+1	3.85	3.69	11.0	4.04	Scott has been happy to show us his floor, but the stuff is still there to propel him up The List at a moment’s notice. It’s felt a littl…

🔒 Closer Chart

Save targets · roles + regression flags.

🚨 Closer Tier Changes (vs. yesterday)

COLOR SHIFT Pittsburgh Pirates: Mason Montgomery → Mason Montgomery ( → magenta) rostered
ROLE CHANGE Washington Nationals: Jack Sinclair → Will Dion FA — ADD

BLUEEntrenched closer (highest leverage)GREENNext man up / committee pieceYELLOWSetup, 8th-inning leverageORANGESpeculative / lower priorityMAGENTAHigh-upside future / multi-inning

	Pitcher	Tm	Role	SV	SVHD	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K/9	Rtg / Own
Yours on the chart
—	Andrés Muñoz	Seattle Mariners	CL	28	28	57.0	4.11	1.19	3.23	14.1	5.0 · —
—	Louis Varland	Toronto Blue Jays	CL	34	39	76.0	1.30	1.00	2.31 ↑	11.2	5.0 · —
Top 5 FA closers (by team rating)
—	Ben Joyce	Los Angeles Angels	CL	5	7	15.3	4.11	1.11	3.96	10.6	4.0 · 5%
	Dylan Smith	San Francisco Giants	CL	4	11	36.0	3.50	1.47	3.99	10.5	4.0 · 0%
—	Steven Cruz HLR	Kansas City Royals	CL	7	12	57.7	4.37	1.27	3.96	9.8	3.5 · 1%
—	Michael Petersen	Miami Marlins	CL	1	26	62.7	3.16	1.12	3.43	11.2	3.0 · 2%
	Juan Morillo	Arizona Diamondbacks	CL	3	21	61.7	2.19	1.04	2.42	10.4	1.0 · 3%

ERA cell: green <3.00 · red >4.50. xERA arrow: ↓ ERA likely to fall (buy) · ↑ ERA likely to rise (sell). Triggers when |xERA−ERA| ≥ 1.00.

✂️ Cut List

Drop priority · value, form, pedigree, role.

56	Richie Palacios OF · TB low TV (2); UFDA — easy to drop; BUT SB specialist (15 SB on 329 AB); weak RoS (82 wRC+) sim cost ~0	TV 2 UFDA
45	Jared Jones SP · Pit low TV (19); UFDA — easy to drop; BUT solid keeper sim cost ~0	TV 19 UFDA
34	Blake Snell SP · LAD mid TV (42); injury status: DTD; BUT strong RoS (3.31 ERA) sim cost ~0	TV 42 Rd 8
24	Sandy Alcantara SP · Mia mid TV (58); cold last 7d; BUT solid keeper sim cost ~0	TV 58 Rd 14
19	Yandy Diaz 1B · TB cold last 7d; BUT strong RoS (122 wRC+) sim cost ~0	TV 73 Rd 9

Higher score = drop sooner — top 5 by score, and only 8+ reaches the board, so the number has no ceiling and is only comparable within this list. The sim line is a roto-sim marginal (cut vs. keep on one shared set of draws), not a measured cost. Pedigree + named closers shielded.

🌱 Stash List

PL's top prospects · grab them cheap.

Hitters

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 24: Top 10 Hitting Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + PSS + PFV + age + 40-man + path.

18 available

H. Mendez

OF · MIN · AAA · 22 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

12·5·.284

M. Arroyo

SS · SEA · AAA · 21 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

19·18·.286

S. Thompson

OF · COL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

15·21·.309

J. Tibbs III

OF · LAD · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

30·10·.287

M. Anderson

2B · DET · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

17·6·.303

S. Walcott

3B/SS · TEX · AA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

10·13·.327

R. Clifford

1B · NYM · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

18·8·.180

B. Davidson

OF · SFG · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

September

Szn

29·19·.289

C. Ingle

C · CLE · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

20·2·.284

S. King

SS/2B/3B · WSN · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

20·15·.302

R. Ward

LF · LAD · AAA · 28 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

21·8·.246

C. Cannarella

OF · MIA · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

15·21·.324

T. Troy

SS · ARI · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

9·10·.280

J. Long

1B · CHC · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

16·3·.275

K. Alderman

OF · MIA · AAA · 23 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

19·10·.254

E. Arroyo

SS · CIN · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

15·14·.278

D. Crisantes

2B/3B · ARI · AAA · 21 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

10·0·.292

R. Velazquez

1B/C · CLE · AA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

29·2·.292

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

Pitchers

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 24: Top 10 Pitching Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + L3 quality + FV + age + 40-man + path.

24 available

O. Murphy

SP · ATL · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

129K·3.70

T. Johnson

SP · TBR · AAA · 24 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

90K·3.12

B. Hopkins

SP · TBR · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

124K·5.25

B. Mautz

SP · STL · AAA · 24 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

106K·4.20

H. Smith

SP · CHW · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

August 1st

Szn

124K·3.36

L. Perales

SP · WSN · AAA · 23 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

108K·4.10

A. Kelly

SP · PIT · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

80K·4.34

C. Seymour

SP · SFG · AAA · 27 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

91K·4.08

K. Curtis

SP · PIT · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

118K·4.86

R. Snelling

SP · MIA · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

46K·2.38

D. Davalillo

SP · TEX · AAA · 24 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

111K·4.59

B. Garrett

SP · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

June 1st

Szn

120K·3.67

M. Bratt

SP · ARI · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

90K·3.95

E. Rodriguez

SP · NYY · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

126K·3.05

T. McDougal

SP · CHW · AAA · 23 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

51K·4.98

T. Sykora

P · WSN · AA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

—

PFV

ETA

'26

Szn

—

R. Ryan

SP · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

47K·4.39

C. Dana

SP · LAA · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

86K·5.52

R. Sloan

SP · SEA · AA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

128K·3.73

C. Lagrange

SP · NYY · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

July 1st

Szn

85K·4.48

C. Crow

SP · MIL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

106K·3.95

T. Gibson

SP · BAL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

116K·5.13

J. Wenninger

SP · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

123K·4.54

L. Braun

SP · ATL · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

112K·4.18

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

🔭 9 not a 2026 factor — Jackson Ferris · Jurrangelo Cijntje · Christian Zazueta · Jackson Wolf · Bryce Mayer · David Hagaman · Jonathan Santucci · Jaxon Wiggins · Karson Milbrandt

💼 Trades

Buy-low targets · league trade history.

Top Buy-Lows

Rebound candidates · suggested offers.

Hitters

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Juan Soto RF · NYM · GARR · jregarris +1.2σ buy-low · RF — fits a need · BA 0.274 / xBA 0.297 · xwOBA 0.416	100%	158 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Kyle Schwarber DH · comparable value (TV 100 vs target 100)
📈 BUY-LOW	Cal Raleigh C · Sea · KNIG · TKHOO +1.7σ buy-low · C — modest fit · BA 0.181 / xBA 0.189 · xwOBA 0.310	85%	129 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Cole Carrigg CF + Joe Ryan SP · two-piece package (TV 83 vs target 82)
📈 BUY-LOW	JJ Bleday CF · Cin · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.2σ buy-low · CF — fits a need · BA 0.214 / xBA 0.239 · xwOBA 0.340	19%	100 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Cole Carrigg CF · comparable value (TV 12 vs target 17)
↑ mild buy	Taylor Ward LF · Sea · GoOs · My Best Guys +0.8σ buy-low · LF — fits a need · BA 0.222 / xBA 0.240 · xwOBA 0.333	56%	120 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Sandy Alcantara SP · comparable value (TV 58 vs target 60)
📈 BUY-LOW	Heriberto Hernandez LF · Mia · FRAN · francisw789 +1.1σ buy-low · LF — fits a need · BA 0.230 / xBA 0.246 · xwOBA 0.349	8%	99 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Henry Bolte RF + +$4 FAAB · comparable value (TV 15 vs target 23)
↑ mild buy	Kyle Stowers LF · Mia · KNIG · TKHOO +0.7σ buy-low · LF — fits a need · BA 0.237 / xBA 0.225 · xwOBA 0.325	27%	110 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Jared Jones SP + +$4 FAAB · comparable value (TV 19 vs target 27)
↑ mild buy	Ian Happ LF · ChC · FRAN · francisw789 +0.8σ buy-low · LF — fits a need · BA 0.220 / xBA 0.208 · xwOBA 0.317	69%	109 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Jac Caglianone RF · comparable value (TV 36 vs target 41)
↑ mild buy	Dominic Canzone RF · Sea · GARR · jregarris +0.5σ buy-low · RF — fits a need · BA 0.258 / xBA 0.269 · xwOBA 0.355	13%	114 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Jac Caglianone RF · comparable value (TV 36 vs target 34)
↑ mild buy	Jarren Duran LF · Bos · RAGE · glhoward40 +0.8σ buy-low · LF — fits a need · BA 0.203 / xBA 0.232 · xwOBA 0.296	64%	100 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Eury Perez SP + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 50 vs target 57)
📈 BUY-LOW	Munetaka Murakami 3B · ChW · GARR · jregarris +1.9σ buy-low · 3B · BA 0.203 / xBA 0.198 · xwOBA 0.341	82%	120 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Sandy Alcantara SP · comparable value (TV 58 vs target 62)

Pitchers

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Kodai Senga SP · NYM · KRTZ · FratSkins +1.1σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 7.05 vs xERA 5.17	11%	3.88 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Cole Carrigg CF · comparable value (TV 12 vs target 14)
↑ mild buy	Kade Anderson SP · Sea · RAGE · glhoward40 +0.7σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 5.33 vs xERA 4.25	18%	4.60 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Cole Carrigg CF · comparable value (TV 12 vs target 16)
↑ mild buy	Andrew Painter SP · Phi · KRTZ · FratSkins +0.8σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 5.54 vs xERA 4.55	16%	4.71 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Cole Carrigg CF · comparable value (TV 12 vs target 15)

League History

Completed trades · frozen grade at the deal + live grade now.

Side	Sent	At deal	Now	Trend
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Andy Pages	A- +7	A+ +45	▲ up
Camp MVP	Pete Crow-Armstrong	C -7	F -45	▼ down
Team Knighton ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Team Knighton	Matthew Boyd	F -22	F -23
Camp MVP	Kenley Jansen	A+ +22	A+ +23
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Worst2First 2026-08-10
Miz-waukee’s Best	Charlie Condon, Payton Tolle	A+ +50	A+ +20	▼ down
Worst2First	Dylan Cease	F -50	F -20	▲ up
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Dorn and Associates LLC 2026-08-05
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Travis Bazzana, George Lombard Jr., Nolan McLean	A+ +144	A+ +106	▼ down
Dorn and Associates LLC	Jackson Chourio, Jhoan Duran, Brice Turang, David Bednar	F -144	F -106	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-07-31
Miz-waukee’s Best	Samuel Basallo, Kade Anderson	A- +8	C -6	▼ down
Ramirez Against the Machine	Blake Snell	C -8	A- +6	▲ up
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Team Knighton 2026-07-23
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Jo Adell, Jacob deGrom	F -49	F -64	▼ down
Team Knighton	Trea Turner	A+ +49	A+ +64	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine ⇄ Miz-waukee’s Best 2026-07-19
Ramirez Against the Machine	Sandy Alcantara	F -42	F -29	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best	Josh Jung	A+ +42	A+ +29	▼ down
I need Buck Showalter ⇄ Hit the Damn Ball You Bums 2026-06-19
I need Buck Showalter	Nasim Nunez	A+ +28	A +12	▼ down
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Justin Wrobleski	F -28	D -12	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ The Boys of Summer 2026-06-12
Miz-waukee’s Best	Chandler Simpson	A +10	C -8	▼ down
The Boys of Summer	$30 FAAB	D -10	A- +8	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-05-01
Miz-waukee’s Best	Kenley Jansen	—	A- +6
Camp MVP	$30 FAAB	A- +3	C -6	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-04-22
Miz-waukee’s Best	Nathan Eovaldi, $70 FAAB	—	F -41
Ramirez Against the Machine	Jac Caglianone	A+ +60	A+ +41	▼ down

🔻 Sell-High — My Roster

Surface line outrunning the underlying skill — trade-value peaks. σ = his surface-stat z-score minus his Statcast-skill z-score, both against the league reference for his side — bigger σ = further ahead of the skill. Pair with Buy-Low Targets.

Verdict	Player	Own	Surface vs expected	Contact	2027 keeper
↓ SHOP	Cole Carrigg CF · Col 0.78σ sell-high · CF · BA 0.272 / xBA 0.246 · xwOBA 0.311 — test the market, don't force it	15%	BA 0.272 / xBA 0.246 +.026 wOBA 0.346 / xwOBA 0.311 +.035	HH 36.4% · Brl/PA 3.5%	25th · +5 rds vs mkt
↓ SHOP	Yandy Diaz 1B · TB 0.54σ sell-high · 1B · BA 0.293 / xBA 0.281 · xwOBA 0.347 — test the market, don't force it	92%	BA 0.293 / xBA 0.281 +.012 wOBA 0.352 / xwOBA 0.347 +.005	HH 48.2% · Brl/PA 5.5%	7th · +1 rd vs mkt
↓ SHOP	Henry Bolte RF · Oak 0.48σ sell-high · RF · BA 0.274 / xBA 0.244 · xwOBA 0.318 — test the market, don't force it	12%	BA 0.274 / xBA 0.244 +.030 wOBA 0.340 / xwOBA 0.318 +.022	HH 48.1% · Brl/PA 4.8%	25th · +5 rds vs mkt
HOLD — KEEPER PRICE	Louis Varland RP · Tor 0.42σ sell-high · RP · ERA 1.30 vs xERA 2.31 — only move for keeper-grade return	86%	ERA 1.30 / xERA 2.31 -1.01	Brl 3.8% allowed	22nd · +16 rds vs mkt

👥 Your Roster

Your roster · news + buy/sell signals.

News (last 24h)

Player news · last 24h.

Bryce Eldridge Fantasy baseball news: Boston looking to clinch, Tucker and Dodgers trying to stay healthy
Sun 09-20 11:41 AM
All of the important fantasy spin and actionable takeaways resulting from the latest baseball news.
Zach Neto Angels beat Twins 6-5 in 11 innings on Moore's bases-loaded, 2-out infield single
Sun 09-20 05:44 AM
— Christian Moore hit an infield single with two outs and the bases loaded that bounded off reliever Taylor Rogers' leg to score Zach Neto and give the Los Angeles Angels a 6-5, 11-inning victory over the Minnesota Twins on Saturday night.
Richie Palacios Palacios has RBI single in the 9th to give the Rays a 2-1 victory over the Red Sox
Sun 09-20 03:32 AM
— Richie Palacios dropped a fly ball into shallow right in the ninth inning to score Junior Caminero and give the Tampa Bay Rays a 2-1 victory over the Boston Red Sox on Saturday.
Cole Carrigg Carrigg's 2-run single in 7th lifts Rockies to 5-3 win, moving Mariners to verge of elimination
Sun 09-20 03:27 AM
— Cole Carrigg hit a go-ahead two-run single during a four-run seventh inning, lifting the Colorado Rockies to a 5-3 win over Seattle on Saturday night and moving the Mariners to the brink of elimination.
Jac Caglianone Swipes bag in return
Sun 09-20 12:00 AM
Caglianone went 2-for-3 with two walks, one RBI and two runs scored in Saturday's 6-5 loss to the Pirates.

Leverage Buys/Sells

Buy/sell windows · surface vs. underlying.

Hitters

Player	Pos	MLB	BA	xBA	wOBA	xwOBA	Brl%	Own%	Signal
James Wood	LF	Wsh	0.267	0.275	0.390	0.412	100.0	99.0	📈 BUY-LOW
Kyle Schwarber	DH	Phi	0.235	0.237	0.370	0.364	98.0	99.5	📈 BUY-LOW
Miguel Vargas	3B	ChW	0.250	0.265	0.361	0.378	89.0	95.1	📈 BUY-LOW
Bryce Eldridge DTD	1B	SF	0.269	0.260	0.361	0.359	76.0	13.1	↑ mild buy
Zach Neto	SS	LAA	0.239	0.214	0.334	0.312	74.0	60.9	fair
Jac Caglianone	RF	KC	0.279	0.277	0.350	0.353	91.0	43.2	fair
Randy Arozarena	LF	Sea	0.281	0.259	0.376	0.347	49.0	94.5	fair
Cole Carrigg	CF	Col	0.271	0.246	0.346	0.311	25.0	15.0	↓ mild fade
Walker Jenkins	CF	Min	0.211	0.206	0.301	0.301	—	4.1	fair
Henry Bolte	RF	Oak	0.273	0.244	0.340	0.318	53.0	11.7	↓ mild fade
Yandy Diaz	1B	TB	0.293	0.281	0.352	0.347	46.0	92.2	↓ mild fade
Kaelen Culpepper IL10	SS	Min	0.275	0.245	0.326	0.298	—	3.9	fair
Emmanuel Rodriguez	CF	Min	0.172	0.277	0.264	0.366	—	0.8	—
Leo Bernal	C	StL	0.310	0.317	0.378	0.385	—	4.1	fair
Victor Mesa Jr.	LF	TB	0.249	0.251	0.353	0.334	—	11.8	fair
Thomas Saggese	2B	StL	0.254	0.247	0.311	0.317	—	9.5	fair
Richie Palacios	LF	TB	0.234	0.247	0.318	0.310	17.0	3.1	fair

Pitchers

Pitcher	Pos	MLB	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K-BB%	xwOBA-a	Brl%-a	Own%	Signal
Andres Munoz	RP	Sea	57.0	4.11	1.19	3.23	27.8	0.279	8.9	80.0	↑ mild buy
Jared Jones	SP	Pit	90.7	4.17	1.19	3.43	20.5	0.287	7.6	23.7	↑ mild buy
Blake Snell DTD	SP	LAD	38.7	1.86	1.09	2.16	22.9	0.228	1.1	83.2	↑ mild buy
Joe Ryan	SP	Min	138.7	4.22	1.18	3.66	20.6	0.296	10.2	88.1	fair
Jacob Misiorowski	SP	Mil	166.3	1.89	0.81	2.08	31.6	0.224	3.8	99.3	fair
Sandy Alcantara	SP	Mia	206.0	3.84	1.23	3.90	10.6	0.305	5.7	84.0	fair
Eury Perez	SP	Mia	149.0	4.17	1.28	4.10	14.6	0.312	10.2	68.7	fair
Dylan Cease	SP	Tor	169.0	2.40	1.10	2.91	23.5	0.265	5.5	98.8	fair
Louis Varland	RP	Tor	76.0	1.30	1.00	2.31	24.3	0.236	3.8	86.2	↓ mild fade

📰 MLB News — Top Fantasy Stories

🔒 Keepers — 2027 Slate

Peter's model (additive): rounds-saved (cost arbitrage spine) + current skill + career-grade pedigree + sample stability + Statcast over/under-performance trend, with age-decline (33+), closer/RP, and top-30 talent adjustments. Heavy on bargain-hunting.
Claude's model (multiplicative dynasty index): EFV(2027) = (3 + skill + upside) × age_mult × pos_mult; score = EFV − cost_replacement − mookie-lock. Compounds age curve and position scarcity.
Sorted by consensus rank (average of both models). MLB-inactive players surfaced in 🚑 Return Watch below.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict	Notes
1.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	21st	#1 (+24.5)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51	UFDA-G FV 55
2.0	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	22nd	#2 (+21.6)	#2 (+27.1)	S · $27
3.0	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	25th	#3 (+18.5)	#3 (+14.4)	A · $14	UFDA
4.0	Bryce Eldridge	1B · 20yo	25th	#4 (+16.2)	#4 (+14.4)	A · $14	UFDA FV 55
5.0	Henry Bolte	RF · 21yo	25th	#5 (+14.9)	#5 (+14.4)	A · $14	UFDA FV 40
6.0	Dylan Cease	SP · 30yo	4th	#6 (+11.8)	#6 (+11.7)	A · $12
7.0	Jac Caglianone	RF · 22yo	21st	#7 (+10.0)	#7 (+6.8)	B · $7	UFDA-G FV 55
8.0	Zach Neto	SS · 25yo	10th	#8 (+9.0)	#8 (+3.6)	C · $4

NEW UFDA cap: Peter 3/3 · Claude 3/3 · BOTH = top 8 in both models. Peter only = his model values cost surplus more; Claude only = mine values projection / position scarcity more.

Updated Sun Sep 20 · 9:05 AM ET

🌍 League-Wide Top Keepers

Top 10 keepers · all 12 teams · both models. Yours in green.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	Team	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict
2.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	MIZ	21st	#3 (+24.5)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51
3.5	Bryan Baker	RP · 31yo	DORN	25th	#4 (+24.2)	#3 (+38.7)	S · $39
4.5	Jordan Walker	RF · 24yo	GARR	25th	#2 (+24.9)	#7 (+29.9)	S · $30
5.0	Jose Soriano	SP · 27yo	BLOB	25th	#1 (+26.1)	#9 (+29.9)	S · $30
6.5	Foster Griffin	SP · 30yo	GoOs	25th	#5 (+23.2)	#8 (+29.9)	S · $30
6.5	Cam Schlittler	SP · 24yo	KRTZ	19th	— (+19.7)	#2 (+40.8)	S · $41
7.5	Nolan McLean	SP · 23yo	DORN	20th	— (+19.8)	#4 (+32.7)	S · $33
8.0	Gavin Williams	SP · 26yo	THAR	11th	— (+14.9)	#5 (+32.4)	S · $32
8.5	Logan Henderson	SP · 23yo	PEYT	25th	#6 (+22.6)	— (+18.5)	S · $18
8.5	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	MIZ	22nd	#7 (+21.6)	#10 (+27.1)	S · $27
8.5	Parker Messick	SP · 24yo	GARR	18th	— (+18.4)	#6 (+31.7)	S · $32
9.5	Andy Pages	CF · 25yo	BLOB	20th	#8 (+21.0)	— (+15.2)	A · $15
10.0	Nick Martinez	SP · 35yo	KNIG	25th	#9 (+20.9)	— (+12.9)	A · $13
10.5	Ben Rice	1B · 27yo	DORN	20th	#10 (+20.6)	— (+13.9)	A · $14

Updated Sun Sep 20 · 9:05 AM ET

🏚️ Keeper Cupboards

Every team's six best keepers · shade = dual-model consensus value. Cupboard score weights the top four heavily (the slots that get kept), keepers 5–8 taper. 100 = league's best cupboard.

Team	K1	K2	K3	K4	K5	K6	Cupboard
1MIZ	MisiorowskiR21	VarlandR22	VargasR25	EldridgeR25	BolteR25	CeaseR4	100
2DORN	BakerR25	RiceR20	McLeanR20	PerdomoR21	BazzanaR25	LaraR25	93
3BLOB	SorianoR25	PagesR20	LopezR20	LileR15	ScottR25	SuarezR12	83
4KRTZ	BengeR25	SchlittlerR19	McGonigleR17	SanojaR25	StewartR10	IIR5	75
5THAR	WilliamsR11	BauersR25	RasmussenR8	MarshR25	O'BrienR17	KeaschallR21	75
6PEYT	SanchezR9	HendersonR25	WooR8	YoungR25	ClarkR22	ArenadoR25	74
7GARR	WalkerR25	MessickR18	GrayR7	RocchioR25	DeLauterR14	GoreR8	71
8GoOs	GriffinR25	WachaR25	BurlesonR9	GoodmanR21	BradleyR25	GomezR25	65
9FRAN	McCarthyR25	LatzR25	CavalliR21	BurnsR5	MorenoR25	AntonacciR25	60
10KNIG	MartinezR25	deGromR13	JensenR20	AbreuR15	ChapmanR11	RomanoR25	55
11RAGE ▼ thin	EwingR25	ImanagaR9	CamineroR5	JonesR25	BasalloR19	HerreraR20	53
12FRST ▼ thin	TolleR25	WheelerR8	RogersR9	MuncyR18	SkubalR1	RumfieldR25	42

The bottom two rows are your trade marks — thin cupboards pay up for keepable pieces.

data: snap 1h · BP 26d · PL 26d · HL 23d · PSS 0h · BR 3d · FG 0h · proj 21h · closer 0h · oyster 0h · AAA-sc 10h · cookie ok