Miz-waukee’s Best — The Brandon League

Last updated Thursday, August 27 · 04:21 AM ET

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Any player in the league universe · tap a result for the card.

☕ Morning Briefing

🏆 MIZ sits alone at 1st with 106.0 roto points, a comfortable 22.0 ahead of Hit the Damn Ball You Bums — but AVG is a razor's edge: THAR is just .001 behind you there, so every at-bat counts today.

⚾ Your bats came alive yesterday: Kyle Schwarber (2-5, 2R, HR, 3 RBI), Cole Carrigg (2-6, 2R, HR, 2 RBI), Jordan Lawlar (2-3, HR, RBI vs the Cubs), and Kaelen Culpepper (1-3, HR, RBI, BB) all went deep, while Louis Varland chipped in a save (1.1 IP, 0 ER). Walker Jenkins (RI 100, Pipeline #15) added a 2-for-4, HR, RBI, SB line at AAA — that stolen base is relevant given you trail THAR by 6 SB for a roto point.

🚨 Biggest actionable item today: Arizona flipped its closer role from Ginkel to Juan Morillo, who is a free agent. Meanwhile, the top roto-sim pickup on the wire is Dylan Smith (SF) at +1.4 projected roto delta — confirmed closer role, 4 projected saves RoS, safe ratios. Also worth a look: Hector Rodriguez (RI 87) went 3-for-6 with 2 HR and 2 RBI against San Francisco yesterday and is a free agent, and Max Anderson (RI 88, on your stash board, FA) went 2-for-4 with a HR and 2 RBI at AAA. Set Jacob Misiorowski in your active lineup tonight.

📰 Around the league, a couple of early-contact signals worth monitoring: Ezequiel Tovar is flashing a 92/99 contact heat score over his last 7 days (9 BBE, .729 xwOBAcon) and Hao-Yu Lee shows 82/99 heat on a larger 19-BBE sample (.468 xwOBAcon) — both are early signals not yet on the official heat board, so confirm availability before acting. Walbert Urena (+0.7σ underlying skill) was just dropped by Photogenic Nick Kurtz and is now a free agent if you need a flier. On the transaction wire, the Yankees signed Michael Fulmer and recalled Elmer Rodríguez from Triple-A; neither projects as a high-leverage fantasy asset, but worth a glance if your bullpen needs depth.

ELIGIBILITYC. Carrigg SS 9/10A. Genao 2B 8/10A. Genao 3B 7/10K. Schwarber 1B 6/10

Your standing

1stof 12

106.0 roto pts +22.0 clear of 2nd

no change vs last update

Top Gaps

SB (7.0) W (8.0)

categories below mid-pack

🎯 Category Pressure

Category ranks vs. the league.

Rank →

Δ to #1

897

973

🥇

258

284

🥇

RBI

837

856

🥇

124

130

136

188

+58

AVG

.255

.257

.258

+0.002

1119

1145

1230

+85

+11

ERA

3.46

3.16

🥇

WHIP

1.18

1.11

🥇

📅 Yesterday's MIZ Box Scores (2026-08-26)

Loading box scores…

🏥 IL Rehab Tracker

IL players · rehab game logs.

On the IL, no rehab games yet: James Wood (IL10), Joe Ryan (IL15), Spencer Schwellenbach (IL60 · watch).

📊 League Activity (last 24h)

All adds, drops, and trades across the 12 teams.

Team	Move
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	+ Luis Robert Jr. \| − Lawrence Butler
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	+ Dustin May \| − Adrian Houser
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	+ Nick Sogard \| − Joey Ortiz
Miz-waukee’s Best	+ Angel Genao
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	+ Joey Cantillo \| − Walbert Urena

🏆 League Standings

Current roto points · 10,000-sim projected finish. FAAB = acquisition budget remaining.

99.3% to win the league · proj finish 1.0 · 101.7 roto pts

#	Team	Pts	FAAB	Win%	Proj Pts	Range	Proj Rk
1	MIZ Miz-waukee’s Best	106.0	$0	99.3%	101.7	97–106	1.0
2	FRAN Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	84.0	$74	0.7%	88.6	82–95	2.1
3	PEYT Phil Swift's Flex Seal	74.5	$35	0.0%	78.1	71–85	3.5
4	KRTZ Photogenic Nick Kurtz	74.0	$29	0.0%	77.8	71–85	3.6
5	GoOs I need Buck Showalter	72.5	$170	0.0%	71.1	65–77	4.9
6	BLOB Camp MVP	64.0	$168	0.0%	67.3	62–72	5.8
7	THAR Phil Mickeltits	63.0	$176	0.0%	60.0	54–66	7.2
8	KNIG Team Knighton	59.5	$137	0.0%	55.9	50–62	8.0
9	GARR The Boys of Summer	52.0	$155	0.0%	53.1	47–60	8.6
10	DORN Dorn and Associates LLC	45.0	$89	0.0%	42.5	38–48	10.8
11	RAGE Ramirez Against the Machine	45.0	$163	0.0%	38.3	34–43	11.7
12	FRST Worst2First	40.5	$154	0.0%	45.6	40–51	10.1

10,000 sims · fixed seed · noise CV talent 0.12 / idio 0.06 / team-cat 0.08 · assumes ATC rest-of-season rates

Your categories · projected roto points

R 12.0HR 12.0RBI 11.1SB 7.2AVG 8.5W 7.1SV 9.3K 10.5ERA 12.0WHIP 12.0

Winnable — push here: SB, AVG, W, SV.

🚨 Today's Streaming Board

147 of 200 GS · should be 166 · 19 behindBehind pace — stream aggressively

053 left · ~12.0/wk to cap · proj 177200

⏳ BP's post is late — Verdict pill is running on our score + Pitcher List for now (BP joins the top-2 once it posts).

Your starters + top FA streamers

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Jacob Misiorowski	@ NYM	AUTO START	—	8.0	#1	Elite ace, no caveats, straight start.
Sean Manaea	vs MIL	DART⚠ opener	—	4.7	#8	Fastball at 93 with strike-throwing keeps him viable.
Hayden Wesneski	@ NYY	DART	—	5.2	#9	LHB-heavy lineup undermines his best RHB-oriented pitch mix.
Jose Cabrera	@ SF	SIT	—	2.7	—	tough SF lineup, weak skills, friendly park
Gabriel Hughes	@ WSH	SIT	—	3.9	#13	Favorable matchup but command regression makes upside unlikely.
Spencer Arrighetti	vs KC	SIT⚠ opener	—	3.2	#12	No velocity gains, pitch-mix too narrow to trust.
Jake Irvin	vs COL	SIT	—	2.2	#10	Coors start, velocity uptick only modest consolation.
Kohl Drake	@ SFG	SIT	—	—	#11	Unproven arm, even a favorable park doesn't change that.
Cooper Hjerpe	vs. BAL	SITopener	—	—	#14	Bulk/piggyback role, minimal immediate fantasy impact expected.

Your staff: 3.16 ERA / 1.11 WHIP · GS 147/200 — Behind pace — stream aggressively. Verdict = the best 2 of BP · our score · Pitcher List, averaged (low outlier dropped); before BP posts it's our score + PL. ⚠ = our matchup score dissented — eyeball that one. Tap a MIZ score for the reasoning.

Tomorrow · 2 of yours + top 5 FA · Fri 8/28 · BP not out yet, so pill = our score + Pitcher List

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Dylan Cease	vs SEA	AUTO START	—	7.5	—	soft SEA lineup, strong skills, hot recent form
Eury Pérez	@ WSH	START	—	6.2	—	tough WSH lineup, hot recent form, strong skills
Blade Tidwell	vs AZ	DART⚠ opener	—	5.6	—	average AZ lineup, strong skills, friendly park
Quinn Mathews	vs PIT	DART	—	5.6	—	soft PIT lineup, shaky recent form, strong skills
Dean Kremer	vs CWS	DART	—	5.2	—	tough CWS lineup, hot recent form, hitter park
Andrew Painter	@ LAA	DART	—	5.1	—	soft LAA lineup, weak skills, hot recent form
Jared Jones	@ STL	DART	—	4.9	—	soft STL lineup, shaky recent form, short leash

Quinn Mathewsvs PIT LHP5.6

PIT off .676 OPS · elite matchupskill 73 pctlL21: 8.0 ERA / 1.78 WHIPL14 contact +3.5 (.296 xwOBAcon-against, 28 BBE)~4.5 IP/startexp 5.36 ERA ↑ hurts (you 3.16)exp 1.72 WHIP ↑ hurts (you 1.11)GS 147/200 · Behind pace — stream aggressively

matchup

skill

form

win

park

📼 Streamer Report Card

Does the Streaming Board actually work? Every pick it showed, frozen at pick time and graded off the real box score. Two scoreboards below: first our own calls — the Verdict ladder and MIZ (our matchup score, 0–10) — then the outside lists behind them, BP (RelieverRecon's daily BP Streamers post) and PL (Pitcher List's tier ranking). Grades are recomputed from raw lines on every build — the rubric can change, the history follows.

Last 30d · 382 starts graded over 29 days · GOOD+ 52% · BLOWUP 16% · agg ERA 4.07 · WHIP 1.30 · 4.5 K/start · 406 picks logged, 14 never started, 10 awaiting a box score — not graded

Grade mix · all 382 graded starts

GEM 84 GOOD 116 OK 120 BLOWUP 62

GEM6+ IP, ≤1 ER · or 6+ IP, 8+ K, ≤2 ERGOODquality start (6+ IP, ≤3 ER) · or 5+ IP, ≤2 EROKheld the line without earning GOODBLOWUP5+ ER · or under 4 IP with 4+ ERGOOD+ = GEM + GOOD. A pick whose starter never took the ball grades to nothing and leaves every rate below.

Cohort	n	GOOD+	BLOWUP	ERA
Q1 — Do our own calls work? · Verdict ladder + MIZ bands · live board rows only, nothing backfilled
Verdict · AUTO START	21	71%	10%	3.06
Verdict · START	42	60%	7%	3.42
Verdict · DART	91	48%	14%	4.42
Verdict · SIT	168	48%	21%	4.40
MIZ ≥ 5.0	113	60%	12%	3.57
MIZ 3.5–4.9	113	51%	16%	4.44
MIZ < 3.5	81	41%	22%	4.90
All live board picks	322	51%	16%	4.18
Q1 read — GOOD+ falls 71% · 60% · 48% · 48% down the rungs, but BLOWUP does not rise with it, and MIZ sorts: GOOD+ falls 60% · 51% · 41% from the top band down.
Q2 — Which outside list earns the weight? · BP and PL graded on their own published lists · mostly rebuilt from git
PL · Auto Start	33	79%	6%	2.85
PL · Probably Start	43	60%	16%	3.78
PL · Questionable Start	96	51%	16%	4.36
PL · Do Not Start	184	50%	20%	4.18
BP · Auto	14	36%	7%	3.94
BP · Likely	59	47%	17%	4.14
All graded picks	382	52%	16%	4.07
Q2 read — against the 52% all-picks baseline, PL's top tiers clear it (79% · 60%) and BP's top tiers are too thin to call (36% · 47% on n=14 · n=59).

Rows are overlapping lenses on the same picks, not a partition — one start can be a PL Auto Start and a Verdict SIT at once, so they never sum to the headline; each group is read against its own baseline row.

⚠ Dissent check — the override is ahead so far — 67% GOOD+ on n=9. Splits are picks the board started over our MIZ sit-call (vs 51% for all live picks).

Calibration — do our numbers mean anything? · full season, 2026-06-29→2026-08-26 · 841 graded picks · MIZ on 307, BP on 230, Verdict on 322

The ladder above asks whether the tiers sort. This asks the harder question: is the number a probability — when the board says 7, do 70% of those starts come back GOOD+? Bins are equal-count and merge until every one clears n=15; the walk-forward rows are scored against a model that only ever saw earlier days.

Score bin	n	mean	GOOD+	95% CI
MIZ score → P(GOOD+) · our matchup score, 0–10 · live rows only · n=307
MIZ 0.5–3.2	62	2.5	40%	29%–53%
MIZ 3.3–3.9	64	3.6	48%	37%–60%
MIZ 4.0–4.8	61	4.4	52%	40%–64%
MIZ 4.9–5.6	62	5.2	52%	39%–64%
MIZ 5.7–8.9	58	6.4	67%	54%–78%
All MIZ-scored picks	307	—	52%	—
BP score → P(GOOD+) · RelieverRecon's published rating · includes git-backfilled rows · n=230
BP 4.6–6.6	48	6.1	35%	23%–50%
BP 6.7–7.3	44	7.0	52%	38%–66%
BP 7.4–7.7	47	7.5	45%	31%–59%
BP 7.8–8.4	47	8.1	47%	33%–61%
BP 8.5–10.0	44	9.1	43%	30%–58%
All BP-scored picks	230	—	44%	—
Verdict tier → P(GOOD+) · the consensus call itself · live rows only
AUTO START	21	—	71%	50%–86%
START	42	—	60%	44%–73%
DART	91	—	48%	38%–58%
SIT	168	—	48%	41%–56%

Out-of-sample	n	value	vs
Walk-forward probability · logistic on MIZ, refit daily on earlier days only · from 2026-08-05 · 21 days
Brier — our probability	243	0.248	lower is better
Brier — flat base rate to date	243	0.256	we win by 0.008
Brier — verdict-tier history	243	0.256	we win by 0.007
Log loss — our probability	243	0.690	lower is better
ECE — our probability	243	0.057	5 equal-count bins
ECE bins · predicted p vs what actually happened
said 32%–48%	49	41%	off by 3%
said 48%–52%	48	44%	off by 7%
said 53%–57%	49	45%	off by 10%
said 57%–61%	48	54%	off by 4%
said 61%–74%	49	61%	off by 4%
Verdict — usable with caveats: ECE 0.057 over n=243 out-of-sample picks (≤0.03 well calibrated · ≤0.07 usable with caveats); edges the flat base rate on Brier (0.248 vs 0.256, a thin margin; log-loss ~coin-flip).

🔥 Today's Hitter Streamers

Top 10 FA bats for today's slate · score = split vs SP hand (35%) + SP softness (35%) + bat quality (15%) + trailing 15 days (10%) + park (5%) · facing an elite arm fades the score hard (feast on weak pitchers).

#	Hitter	Matchup	Why	Legs	Score
1	AUTO STARTDrew GilbertRF · 0% own	vs AZ · Cabrera RHP	szn .321 xwOBAL15: 0.855 OPS (41 PA)L14 contact +6.0 (.568 xwOBAcon, 22 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)fills OF needbeats 2 of 2 eligible startersCabrera .353 allowed · soft SP0.8 OPS vs RHP (244 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	79
2	CONSIDERAndrew Vaughn1B · 4% own	@ NYM · Manaea LHP	szn .342 xwOBAL15: 0.774 OPS (44 PA)L14 contact -0.6 (.356 xwOBAcon, 28 BBE)usually bats 4th (×1.05)beats 0 of 1 eligible startersManaea .336 allowed · soft SP1.041 OPS vs LHP (89 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	78
3	AUTO STARTTroy JohnstonRF · 4% own	@ WSH · Irvin RHP	szn .328 xwOBAL15: 1.080 OPS (27 PA)L14 contact +4.4 (.468 xwOBAcon, 19 BBE)usually bats 8th (×0.93)fills OF needbeats 2 of 3 eligible startersIrvin .353 allowed · soft SP0.815 OPS vs RHP (263 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	72
4	DEPTHKyle Karros3B · 3% own	@ WSH · Irvin RHP	szn .338 xwOBAusually bats 5thbeats 0 of 1 eligible startersIrvin .353 allowed · soft SP0.768 OPS vs RHP (221 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	64
5	DEPTHChristian Encarnacion-Strand1B · 3% own	@ STL · TBD	szn .350 xwOBAL15: 0.776 OPS (49 PA)L14 contact +4.1 (.462 xwOBAcon, 29 BBE)usually bats 5thbeats 0 of 1 eligible startersSP: TBD	L15 bat SP L/R park	55
6	STARTSterlin ThompsonLF · 0% own	@ WSH · Irvin RHP	szn .295 xwOBAfills OF needbeats 1 of 2 eligible startersIrvin .353 allowed · soft SP0.723 OPS vs RHP (55 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	55
7	CONSIDERMichael Massey2B · 1% own	@ TOR · Arrighetti RHP	szn .298 xwOBAL15: 1.210 OPS (34 PA)L14 contact +1.1 (.395 xwOBAcon, 28 BBE)DTD — check lineupusually bats 7th (×0.95)Arrighetti .345 allowed · soft SP0.721 OPS vs RHP (259 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	55
8	STARTColton CowserCF · 2% own	@ STL · TBD	szn .319 xwOBAL15: 1.024 OPS (29 PA)L14 contact +3.1 (.439 xwOBAcon, 19 BBE)usually bats 8th (×0.93)fills OF needbeats 1 of 2 eligible startersSP: TBD	L15 bat SP L/R park	52
9	DEPTHCoby Mayo1B · 2% own	@ STL · TBD	szn .313 xwOBAL15: 0.673 OPS (39 PA)L14 contact +6.0 (.592 xwOBAcon, 23 BBE)usually bats 4th (×1.05)beats 0 of 1 eligible startersSP: TBD	L15 bat SP L/R park	52
10	CONSIDERGary SanchezC · 2% own	@ NYM · Manaea LHP	szn .350 xwOBAL15: 0.529 OPS (32 PA)L14 contact -4.9 (.262 xwOBAcon, 16 BBE)usually bats 5thManaea .336 allowed · soft SP0.793 OPS vs LHP (87 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	51

Tiers vs YOUR lineup tonight — median starter 63, worst Jordan Lawlar (39). AUTO START = beats the median eligible starter.

TBD starter = neutral SP + split legs until the probable posts (refresh upgrades it). Splits need 30+ AB vs that hand. IL bats are excluded; bats who rarely start against tonight's hand are dropped. Doubleheaders: legs average the ends he plays, and everyday bats get up to a ×1.50 volume boost. Lineup slot scales the score by expected PAs from the bat's usual spot (leadoff ×1.12 … 9-hole ×0.90, modal over the last ~10 played days) — his typical order, not today's card, since that posts after waivers run.

🎯 FA Hitters — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Miguel Vargas

1Justin CrawfordCF · Phi · 3.6%CATEGORY FIT

Roto sim leader +0.5; SB the only live category, Crawford's 5 projected SB directly attacks rank-6 gap to rank-5

ATC 99 PA · 1 HR · 5 SB · 0.268 · L7 0.167 · 0 HR · sim +0.5 pts

2Mickey Gasper

C · Bos · 6.8% · HEATER

88/99 heat on trusted 23-BBE sample, .618 xwOBAcon, .546/.476 recent production is genuinely elite contact

Heat 88 · 23 BBE · ATC 11 PA · 0 HR · 0 SB · 0.225 · L7 0.546 · 2 HR · sim +0.1 pts

3Xander Bogaerts

SS · SD · 18.7% · BEST VALUE

Highest ATC volume (119 PA), everyday role, 31-BBE heat board; recent BA slump is noise vs. projection floor

Heat 76 · 31 BBE · ATC 119 PA · 3 HR · 4 SB · 0.259 · L7 0.177 · 0 HR · sim +0.3 pts

4Lawrence Butler

RF · Oak · 16.4% · UPSIDE

Best last-7 production (.429, 4R/4RBI); ATC projects everyday volume with real HR/SB upside at Oakland

ATC 113 PA · 4 HR · 3 SB · 0.236 · L7 0.429 · 0 HR · sim +0.1 pts

5Colt Keith

1B · Det · 5.3% · HEATER

84/99 heat, .467 xwOBAcon on 22 BBE; last-7 cold spell masks elite contact signal worth the flier

Heat 84 · 22 BBE · ATC 113 PA · 3 HR · 1 SB · 0.259 · L7 0.111 · 0 HR · sim +0.1 pts

Passed on: Tristan Peters' 4-HR last-7 flare is eye-catching but ATC projects only 1 HR RoS — the power spike has no underlying support and MIZ doesn't need HR help anyway.

💪 Hitter List Rankings

PL Top 150 hitters · your bats + top FAs.

On Hitter List · 18 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Hitter	MLB	Pos	Chg	AVG	xwOBA	HR	SB	RoS	Chu’s Take
18	Randy Arozarena	SEA	OF	-	.272	.348	20	20	123	Randy Arozarena is only hitting .238 in August, but his expected stats for this month suggest it should be closer to .280. I’m a little d…
19	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	DH	+2	.243	.366	40	3	127	When Kyle Schwarber is hot, he’s HOT. The Field of Dreams game was his second two-homer outing in his last five starts and facing the Twi…
39	Yandy Díaz	TB	1B	+10	.301	.356	19	3	123
40	Miguel Vargas	CHW	1B/3B	-10	.251	.390	29	13	114	Miguel Vargas continues to slump, and while there isn’t anything you should do about it from an add/drop perspective, it’s certainly frus…
57	Zach Neto	LAA	SS	+4	.237	.303	22	18	109
62	Royce Lewis	MIN	1B/2B/3B	+8	.234	.317	13	13	104
63	Cole Carrigg	COL	OF	+2	.269	.318	6	7	68
72	Jac Caglianone	KC	1B/OF	+23	.274	.361	22	6	107	Jac Caglianone has improved the strikeout rate in a huge way, and the ground ball rate is below 50%. All systems are GO.
77	Dansby Swanson	CHC	SS	+2	.216	.307	18	17	101
84	Ty France	SD	1B	+1	.288	.332	18	1	106
101	Tyler Soderstrom	ATH	1B/OF	+5	.245	.328	19	2	—
102	Jacob Wilson	ATH	SS	+8	.266	.282	7	4	—
112	Tyler Stephenson	CIN	C	+UR	.245	.335	12	0	97
114	Dylan Crews	WSH	OF	+15	.217	.320	10	8	87
117	Ryan Jeffers	MIN	C	+15	.276	.355	10	1	118
122	Andruw Monasterio	BOS	2B/SS	+15	.255	.298	6	4	92
126	Luis Rengifo	SD	2B/3B/OF	+17	.245	.304	4	6	87
133	Cam Smith	HOU	OF	+UR	.216	.324	17	10	100	OK, Cam Smith , go ahead, tease me one more time.
137	Abimelec Ortiz	WSH	1B/OF	+UR	.208	.339	5	0	87
139	Bryce Eldridge	SF	1B	-26	.252	.352	14	1	99	Bryce Eldridge is getting the ball in the air, but he’s not pulling it much and strikeouts have been an issue. He’s a solid hold in Dynas…
TS	Angel Genao	Cle	SS	—	.288	.304	1	1	94	Angel Genao (3B, CLE) — Plenty of hard-hit balls in play, albeit mostly on the ground. Feels like a streamer for now with more upside in …
TS	Henry Bolte	Oak	OF	—	.272	.307	6	14	91	Henry Bolte (OF, ATH) — Playing every day but the results aren’t overly exciting (though playing a ton of lefties lately has helped).
TS	Jordan Lawlar	Ari	3B/OF	—	.290	.331	3	4	89	Jordan Lawlar (3B/OF, ARI) — Has a home run in back-to-back games on his rehab, but striking out a TON. Sounds like he’ll be back this we…
TS	Kaelen Culpepper	Min	SS	—	.333	.314	3	0	91	Kaelen Culpepper (SS, MIN) — Culpepper is off to a slow start and is sitting every third day or so, but can remain an upside stash if you…
TS	Walker Jenkins	Min	OF	—	—	—	—	—	92	Walker Jenkins (OF, MIN) — Hitting extremely well in August (1.063 OPS), and the collapse of Larnach may give him a chance to break throu…
UR	Franklin Arias	Bos	SS	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	James Wood	Wsh	OF	—	.265	.419	30	17	129	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Ralphy Velazquez	Cle	1B	—	—	—	—	—	83	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.

🔥 Heat Board

Hottest ACTIVE free-agent bats by contact quality, 8/13–8/26 · Heat = percentile vs all MLB bats over the same window (xwOBAcon 30 · EV 20 · Brl 20 · HH 15 · K 10 · BB 5) · min 15 BBE to qualify (smaller samples live in the HM rail) · IL excluded.

Ryan Vilade

RF · TB · 0.2% own · xwOBAcon .651 · EV 97.5 · Brl 18.8% · 16 BBE

▲ .145 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.264	11	37	25	3
L14	.409	2	2	5	0

Mickey Gasper

C · Bos · 6.8% own · xwOBAcon .618 · EV 90.8 · Brl 26.1% · 23 BBE

▲ .201 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.275	5	19	17	0
L14	.476	5	12	6	0

Brett Baty

3B · NYM · 2.6% own · xwOBAcon .454 · EV 93.4 · Brl 13.3% · 15 BBE

▲ .110 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.223	8	40	45	5
L14	.333	0	2	2	0

Randal Grichuk

RF · ChW · 0.4% own · xwOBAcon .472 · EV 92.3 · Brl 29.4% · 17 BBE

▲ .196 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.278	11	32	32	0
L14	.474	2	7	5	0

Colt Keith

1B · Det · 5.3% own · xwOBAcon .467 · EV 93.8 · Brl 9.1% · 22 BBE

▲ .016 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.264	9	32	46	5
L14	.280	1	1	4	0

Drew Gilbert

RF · SF · 0.5% own · xwOBAcon .568 · EV 91.9 · Brl 18.2% · 22 BBE

▲ .031 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.242	7	34	39	1
L14	.273	2	6	7	0

Coby Mayo

1B · Bal · 1.8% own · xwOBAcon .592 · EV 90.1 · Brl 21.7% · 23 BBE

▼ .012 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.212	17	48	47	2
L14	.200	2	3	7	0

Andres Chaparro

1B · Wsh · 0.5% own · xwOBAcon .475 · EV 89.4 · Brl 26.1% · 23 BBE

▲ .028 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.252	9	33	27	0
L14	.280	2	4	6	0

Patrick Bailey

C · Cle · 0.8% own · xwOBAcon .493 · EV 92.0 · Brl 6.2% · 16 BBE

▲ .046 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.194	7	30	24	3
L14	.240	1	7	3	1

Xander Bogaerts

SS · SD · 18.7% own · xwOBAcon .337 · EV 94.5 · Brl 12.9% · 31 BBE

▼ .029 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.217	11	47	50	17
L14	.188	1	5	3	1

Honorable mention · hottest L7 (8/20–8/26), not yet on the board · tiny samples — peek, don't trust

Ezequiel Tovar

SS · Col

.729 xwOBAcon

9 BBE · .500 L7

Hao-Yu Lee

3B · Det

.468 xwOBAcon

19 BBE · .263 L7

Tristan Peters

CF · ChW

.518 xwOBAcon

18 BBE · .368 L7

Elias Diaz

C · Tex

.386 xwOBAcon

11 BBE · .222 L7

Dylan Beavers

LF · Bal

.476 xwOBAcon

14 BBE · .357 L7

Nathan Lukes

RF · Tor

.418 xwOBAcon

14 BBE · .357 L7

🎯 FA Pitchers — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Sandy Alcantara

1Dylan SmithRP · SF · 0.6%BEST VALUE

Highest roto sim delta (+1.4), closer role confirmed, 4 SV projected RoS, ratios safe.

Supp 59 · 14 BBE · ATC 12.0 IP · 1 W · 11 K · 3.97 · 1.33 · 4 SV · Closer · sim +1.4 pts

2Andrew Kittredge

RP · Bal · 1.7% · CATEGORY FIT

Second-best sim (+1.1), confirmed closer, 2 SV, 1.21 WHIP protects ratio leads.

Supp 71 · 19 BBE · ATC 12.0 IP · 1 W · 11 K · 3.87 · 1.21 · 2 SV · Closer · sim +1.1 pts

3Calvin Faucher

RP · Mia · 0.7% · UPSIDE

Confirmed closer, +0.9 sim, 81st-percentile suppression on small but real sample.

Supp 81 · 13 BBE · ATC 12.0 IP · 1 W · 12 K · 3.96 · 1.39 · 1 SV · Closer · sim +0.9 pts

4Juan Morillo

RP · Ari · 2.5% · UPSIDE

Confirmed closer, +0.8 sim, 93rd-percentile suppression — elite contact quality despite tiny BBE.

Supp 93 · 10 BBE · ATC 11.0 IP · 1 W · 11 K · 3.83 · 1.35 · 1 SV · Closer · sim +0.8 pts

5Clay Holmes

SP · ChC · 29.3% · HEATER

75th-percentile suppression on 56 BBE trusted sample; 3.78 ERA fits ratio protection mandate.

Supp 75 · 56 BBE · ATC 30.0 IP · 2 W · 25 K · 3.78 · 1.33 · sim +0.0 pts

Passed on: Max Scherzer's 92nd-percentile suppression is real but ATC projects only 24 IP at 4.77 ERA — insufficient volume with declining role trust to crack the closer quartet.

⚾ Pitcher List Rankings

PL Top 100 SP · your arms + top FAs.

On Pitcher List · 6 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Pitcher	MLB	Chg	ERA	xERA	K/9	RoS	Pollack’s Take
1	Jacob Misiorowski	MIL	-	1.68	1.98	13.4	3.32	Like a base set Charizard, Misiorowski’s not gonna stop being dope.
9	Blake Snell	LAD	+7	2.57	2.29	11.1	3.42	#HotSnellSummer is in full swing.
10	Dylan Cease	TOR	-1	2.37	2.68	13.0	3.45	Like a perfect burger without the condiments to hit all your macros, Cease gives you everything except for a stable WHIP due to his infla…
20	Kyle Harrison	MIL	+8	2.79	3.24	11.1	4.12	With a dominant outing, he muted our concerns, but Harrison’s still displaying decreased velocity and not commanding as well as he did in…
22	Eury Pérez	MIA	-4	3.17	3.67	9.7	3.87	Pérez has the stuff to be an ace, but there’s polishing to do in the command and game plan departments to unlock his full potential.
30	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	-4	3.38	3.64	6.7	4.19	Baseball’s premier innings eater hasn’t ruined his appetite.
38	Jacob Lopez	ATH	+6	4.98	3.36	8.6	4.63	It’s the 2025 hot streak all over again. Enjoy the ride, ya’ll!
40	Walbert Ureña	LAA	-	2.94	3.44	8.7	4.54	Armed with upper-90s heaters and one of the best changeups in baseball, Ureña has hit few speed bumps. If that developing sweeper becomes…
43	Andrew Painter	PHI	+UR	6.04	4.81	7.7	4.78	From off The List to inside the Top 50, Painter has stolen our hearts with an improved heater (97+ mph with 17-18″ iVB) and emphasis on r…
45	Peter Lambert	HOU	-4	3.66	3.44	8.8	4.58	Lambert’s stumble last time was a product of being Singled Out . He’s been reliable all year, but we should be recognizing that Holly is …
46	Jared Jones	PIT	-8	4.76	3.67	10.2	3.99	The stuff is top-tier, but he’s still shaking off the Tommy John surgery rust with his command and the tight leash the Pirates have on hi…
56	Shane Bieber	TOR	+14	4.37	5.94	7.1	4.19	Bieber is back in business. His heater looked awesome in The Trop, and his offspeed pitches are being the CSW monsters they need to be to…
57	Tyler Mahle	ATL	-	4.41	4.28	8.5	4.10	Mahle’s command and velocity have been stellar since returning from the IL in late June. He’s got an even better situation pitching in At…
58	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	-	3.51	3.75	6.2	4.60	Despite what the line suggests, Pfaadt’s last start wasn’t an end to his Vargas Rule . It was a textbook Careful, Icarus with a three-run…
59	Christian Scott	NYM	+1	3.73	3.97	11.2	3.94	Scott has been happy to show us his floor, but the stuff is still there to propel him up The List at a moment’s notice. It’s felt a littl…
60	Sean Manaea	NYM	-4	4.31	4.81	9.0	4.26	The velo was 93+ last time, and he’s still supporting it with an elite sweeper. Manaea’s command has prevented him from excelling across …

🔒 Closer Chart

Save targets · roles + regression flags.

🚨 Closer Tier Changes (vs. yesterday)

ROLE CHANGE Arizona Diamondbacks: Kevin Ginkel → Juan Morillo FA — ADD
COLOR SHIFT Cleveland Guardians: Cade Smith → Cade Smith (magenta → ) rostered
COLOR SHIFT Los Angeles Dodgers: Tanner Scott → Tanner Scott ( → magenta) rostered
COLOR SHIFT Miami Marlins: Calvin Faucher → Calvin Faucher (magenta → ) FA — ADD
COLOR SHIFT Pittsburgh Pirates: Mason Montgomery → Mason Montgomery (magenta → ) rostered
COLOR SHIFT San Diego Padres: Mason Miller → Mason Miller (magenta → ) rostered
COLOR SHIFT San Francisco Giants: Dylan Smith → Dylan Smith (blue → orange) FA — ADD

BLUEEntrenched closer (highest leverage)GREENNext man up / committee pieceYELLOWSetup, 8th-inning leverageORANGESpeculative / lower priorityMAGENTAHigh-upside future / multi-inning

	Pitcher	Tm	Role	SV	SVHD	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K/9	Rtg / Own
Yours on the chart
—	Andrés Muñoz	Seattle Mariners	CL	24	24	48.3	4.28	1.22	3.31	14.3	5.0 · —
—	Louis Varland	Toronto Blue Jays	CL	30	35	67.7	1.20	0.99	2.24 ↑	11.0	5.0 · —
—	Justin Martinez	Arizona Diamondbacks	FU	0	0	3.0	0.00	1.00	3.54 ↑	6.0	1.0 · —
Top 5 FA closers (by team rating)
—	Calvin Faucher	Miami Marlins	CL	2	16	56.3	3.99	1.37	3.72	10.1	3.5 · 1%
	Andrew Kittredge	Baltimore Orioles	CL	7	16	40.3	3.35	1.36	3.86	7.4	3.0 · 2%
	Dylan Smith	San Francisco Giants	CL	3	10	28.7	3.45	1.36	3.59	11.3	3.0 · 1%
	Juan Morillo	Arizona Diamondbacks	CL	2	19	52.3	2.24	1.01	2.35	10.3	1.0 · 3%
🌱 Green-tagged FA — upside / stash
	Carson Seymour	San Francisco Giants	ST	1	4	17.3	5.19	1.56	6.29 ↑	7.3	3.0 · 0%

ERA cell: green <3.00 · red >4.50. xERA arrow: ↓ ERA likely to fall (buy) · ↑ ERA likely to rise (sell). Triggers when |xERA−ERA| ≥ 1.00.

✂️ Cut List

Drop priority · value, form, pedigree, role.

51	Royce Lewis 3B · Min low TV (18) sim +0.07% win if cut	TV 18 Rd 13
31	Justin Martinez RP · Ari low TV (16); BUT fresh-callup upside; BUT strong RoS (3.46 ERA) sim −0.48% win if cut	TV 16 UFDA
12	Kyle Harrison SP · Mil mid TV (60); UFDA — easy to drop; BUT top-tier keeper sim −0.07% win if cut	TV 60 UFDA
11	Yandy Diaz 1B · TB BUT AVG specialist (0.301); BUT strong RoS (123 wRC+) sim cost ~0	TV 73 Rd 9
11	Sandy Alcantara SP · Mia BUT solid keeper sim cost ~0	TV 72 Rd 14

Higher score = drop sooner — top 5 by score, and only 8+ reaches the board, so the number has no ceiling and is only comparable within this list. The sim line is a roto-sim marginal (cut vs. keep on one shared set of draws), not a measured cost. Pedigree + named closers shielded.

🌱 Stash List

PL's top prospects · grab them cheap.

Hitters

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 22: Top 10 Hitting Prospects to Stash

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + PSS + PFV + age + 40-man + path.

24 available — 3 yours

W. Jenkins YOURS

OF · MIN · AAA · 21 · knocking on the door

100

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

14·17·.323

F. Arias YOURS

SS · BOS · AAA · 20 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

23·6·.313

R. Velazquez YOURS

1B/C · CLE · AA · 20 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

27·2·.292

J. Tibbs III

OF · LAD · AAA · 23 · knocking on the door

100

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

27·7·.298

S. Thompson

OF · COL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

12·16·.300

B. Davidson

OF · SFG · AAA · 24 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

September

Szn

25·19·.284

M. Anderson

2B · DET · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

16·5·.309

S. King

SS/2B/3B · WSN · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

18·14·.323

J. Melton

OF · TB · AAA · 25 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

7·26·.307

C. Cannarella

OF · MIA · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

13·20·.334

L. Montes

OF · SEA · AAA · 21 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

37·6·.248

M. Arroyo

SS · SEA · AAA · 21 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

17·16·.281

Y. Morales

3B · WSN · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

24·5·.286

P. Harber

3B · SFG · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

'27

Szn

17·4·.290

R. Ward

LF · LAD · AAA · 28 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

20·7·.254

C. Ingle

C · CLE · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

18·2·.286

H. Mendez

OF · MIN · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

12·4·.279

J. Long

1B · CHC · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

13·3·.278

K. Alderman

OF · MIA · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

18·10·.262

E. Arroyo

SS · CIN · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

15·14·.288

E. Salas

C · SDP · AAA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September

Szn

10·16·.290

Z. Hope

OF · DET · AA · 21 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

26·22·.275

J. Made

SS · MIL · AA · 19 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

13·33·.273

D. Crisantes

2B/3B · ARI · AAA · 21 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

9·0·.293

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

Pitchers

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 22: Top 10 Pitching Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + L3 quality + FV + age + 40-man + path.

27 available

L. Perales

SP · WSN · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

100K·3.94

H. Smith

SP · CHW · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

August 1st

Szn

101K·3.84

C. Seymour

SP · SFG · AAA · 27 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

84K·4.05

R. Snelling

SP · MIA · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

46K·2.38

J. Tong

SP · NYM · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

125K·4.75

A. Kelly

SP · PIT · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

70K·4.21

T. Johnson

SP · TBR · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

80K·2.90

C. Crow

SP · MIL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

89K·3.55

T. Bremner

SP · LAA · AA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

'26

Szn

84K·4.26

M. Bratt

SP · ARI · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

79K·3.33

D. Davalillo

SP · TEX · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

91K·5.01

R. Sloan

SP · SEA · AA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

100

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

111K·3.63

J. Ritchie

SP · ATL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

114K·3.83

G. Wood

P · PHI · AA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

'26

Szn

117K·4.11

M. Forret

SP · BAL · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

115K·3.85

T. McDougal

SP · CHW · AAA · 23 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

47K·4.43

B. Garrett

SP · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

June 1st

Szn

101K·3.68

M. Wilkinson

SP · SFG · AAA · 23 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

98K·3.57

B. Mautz

SP · STL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

91K·3.86

C. Dana

SP · LAA · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

72K·5.90

M. Ullola

SP · HOU · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

94K·4.41

O. Murphy

SP · ATL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

119K·3.95

J. Wenninger

SP · NYM · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

104K·4.17

B. Hopkins

SP · TBR · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

111K·5.52

T. Gibson

SP · BAL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

94K·5.15

K. Curtis

SP · PIT · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

109K·4.65

L. Braun

SP · ATL · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

101K·3.72

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

🔭 11 not a 2026 factor — Liam Doyle · Anthony Eyanson · Christian Zazueta · Jamie Arnold · Joseph Dzierwa · Jaxon Wiggins · Nestor German · Tyson Hardin · Jurrangelo Cijntje · Jonathan Santucci · Karson Milbrandt

💼 Trades

Buy-low targets · league trade history.

Top Buy-Lows

Rebound candidates · suggested offers.

Hitters

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Trent Grisham CF · NYY · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.2σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.220 / xBA 0.249 · xwOBA 0.344	33%	114 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Franklin Arias SS + Royce Lewis 3B + +$5 FAAB · two-piece package (TV 27 vs target 38)
📈 BUY-LOW	Ronald Acuna Jr. RF · Atl · GoOs · My Best Guys +1.3σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.232 / xBA 0.252 · xwOBA 0.359	98%	136 wRC+	≈ 0.2%	Blake Snell SP + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 79 vs target 86)
📈 BUY-LOW	JJ Bleday CF · Cin · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.2σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.220 / xBA 0.244 · xwOBA 0.349	25%	104 wRC+	≈ 0.1%	Franklin Arias SS + Royce Lewis 3B · two-piece package (TV 27 vs target 27)
📈 BUY-LOW	Heriberto Hernandez LF · Mia · FRAN · francisw789 +1.1σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.231 / xBA 0.248 · xwOBA 0.349	3%	98 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Royce Lewis 3B · comparable value (TV 18 vs target 23)
↑ mild buy	Taylor Ward LF · Sea · GoOs · My Best Guys +0.6σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.233 / xBA 0.244 · xwOBA 0.339	62%	118 wRC+	≈ 0.2%	Kyle Harrison SP · comparable value (TV 60 vs target 60)
↑ mild buy	Brandon Nimmo LF · Tex · DORN · Lambertmt48 +0.6σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.259 / xBA 0.280 · xwOBA 0.355	68%	119 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Walker Jenkins CF + Jac Caglianone RF · two-piece package (TV 53 vs target 45)
↑ mild buy	Dominic Canzone RF · Sea · GARR · jregarris +0.6σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.256 / xBA 0.269 · xwOBA 0.355	12%	113 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Franklin Arias SS + Royce Lewis 3B + +$3 FAAB · two-piece package (TV 27 vs target 34)
↑ mild buy	Kyle Stowers LF · Mia · KNIG · TKHOO +0.6σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.241 / xBA 0.233 · xwOBA 0.329	28%	111 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Franklin Arias SS + Royce Lewis 3B · two-piece package (TV 27 vs target 27)
📈 BUY-LOW	Cal Raleigh C · Sea · KNIG · TKHOO +1.9σ buy-low · C — modest fit · BA 0.169 / xBA 0.183 · xwOBA 0.307	82%	119 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Yandy Diaz 1B + +$4 FAAB · comparable value (TV 73 vs target 81)
↑ mild buy	Ian Happ LF · ChC · FRAN · francisw789 +0.7σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.220 / xBA 0.205 · xwOBA 0.315	74%	108 wRC+	≈ 0.2%	Jac Caglianone RF · comparable value (TV 52 vs target 56)

Pitchers

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Kodai Senga SP · NYM · KRTZ · FratSkins +1.6σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 7.79 vs xERA 4.97	10%	3.96 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Franklin Arias SS · comparable value (TV 9 vs target 14)
↑ mild buy	Landen Roupp SP · SF · FRST · prestonc51684 +0.6σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.34 vs xERA 3.75	23%	3.98 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Royce Lewis 3B · comparable value (TV 18 vs target 19)
↑ mild buy	Bryce Miller SP · Sea · BLOB · crenshawh19 +0.6σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.12 vs xERA 3.17	37%	4.10 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Jac Caglianone RF · comparable value (TV 52 vs target 48)
↑ mild buy	Freddy Peralta SP · TB · KNIG · TKHOO +0.6σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 5.33 vs xERA 4.11	69%	4.01 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Walker Jenkins CF + Jac Caglianone RF · two-piece package (TV 53 vs target 42)

League History

Completed trades · frozen grade at the deal + live grade now.

Side	Sent	At deal	Now	Trend
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Andy Pages	A- +7	A+ +44	▲ up
Camp MVP	Pete Crow-Armstrong	C -7	F -44	▼ down
Team Knighton ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Team Knighton	Matthew Boyd	F -22	F -22
Camp MVP	Kenley Jansen	A+ +22	A+ +22
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Worst2First 2026-08-10
Miz-waukee’s Best	Charlie Condon, Payton Tolle	A+ +50	A+ +35	▼ down
Worst2First	Dylan Cease	F -50	F -35	▲ up
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Dorn and Associates LLC 2026-08-05
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Travis Bazzana, George Lombard Jr., Nolan McLean	A+ +144	A+ +106	▼ down
Dorn and Associates LLC	Jackson Chourio, Jhoan Duran, Brice Turang, David Bednar	F -144	F -106	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-07-31
Miz-waukee’s Best	Samuel Basallo, Kade Anderson	A- +8	A +8
Ramirez Against the Machine	Blake Snell	C -8	D -8
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Team Knighton 2026-07-23
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Jo Adell, Jacob deGrom	F -49	F -63	▼ down
Team Knighton	Trea Turner	A+ +49	A+ +63	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine ⇄ Miz-waukee’s Best 2026-07-19
Ramirez Against the Machine	Sandy Alcantara	F -42	F -68	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best	Josh Jung	A+ +42	A+ +68	▲ up
I need Buck Showalter ⇄ Hit the Damn Ball You Bums 2026-06-19
I need Buck Showalter	Nasim Nunez	A+ +28	B +1	▼ down
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Justin Wrobleski	F -28	B -1	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ The Boys of Summer 2026-06-12
Miz-waukee’s Best	Chandler Simpson	A +10	A- +7	▼ down
The Boys of Summer	$30 FAAB	D -10	C -7	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-05-01
Miz-waukee’s Best	Kenley Jansen	—	A- +6
Camp MVP	$30 FAAB	A- +3	C -6	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-04-22
Miz-waukee’s Best	Nathan Eovaldi, $70 FAAB	—	F -15
Ramirez Against the Machine	Jac Caglianone	A+ +60	A+ +15	▼ down

🔻 Sell-High — My Roster

Surface line outrunning the underlying skill — trade-value peaks. σ = his surface-stat z-score minus his Statcast-skill z-score, both against the league reference for his side — bigger σ = further ahead of the skill. Pair with Buy-Low Targets.

Verdict	Player	Own	Surface vs expected	Contact	2027 keeper
↓ SHOP	Henry Bolte RF · Oak 0.65σ sell-high · RF · BA 0.276 / xBA 0.243 · xwOBA 0.307 — test the market, don't force it	4%	BA 0.276 / xBA 0.243 +.033 wOBA 0.328 / xwOBA 0.307 +.021	HH 47.8% · Brl/PA 4.4%	25th · +2 rds vs mkt
↓ SHOP	Yandy Diaz 1B · TB 0.60σ sell-high · 1B · BA 0.303 / xBA 0.288 · xwOBA 0.356 — test the market, don't force it	93%	BA 0.303 / xBA 0.288 +.015 wOBA 0.364 / xwOBA 0.356 +.008	HH 47.3% · Brl/PA 5.1%	7th · +1 rd vs mkt
HOLD — KEEPER PRICE	Louis Varland RP · Tor 0.48σ sell-high · RP · ERA 1.22 vs xERA 2.24 — only move for keeper-grade return	86%	ERA 1.22 / xERA 2.24 -1.02	Brl 4.4% allowed	22nd · +16 rds vs mkt

👥 Your Roster

Your roster · news + buy/sell signals.

News (last 24h)

Player news · last 24h.

Cole Carrigg Connor Norby's grand slam and 3 2-run homers help Rockies to a 13-1 win over the Nationals
Thu 08-27 02:01 AM
— Connor Norby hit a grand slam, Troy Johnston, Cole Carrigg and Hunter Goodman had two-run homers, and the Colorado Rockies beat the Washington Nationals 13-1 on Wednesday night.
Cole Carrigg Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: Game Highlight
Thu 08-27 01:46 AM
Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: Game Highlight
Kyle Schwarber Schwarber ties Howard with Phillies record fourth 40-HR season
Wed 08-26 11:51 PM
Kyle Schwarber hit his MLB-leading 40th homer of the season, matching Ryan Howard's Phillies record for most 40-plus homer seasons.
Kyle Schwarber Schwarber hits MLB-leading 40th homer, Luzardo fans 9 as Phillies beat Mariners 6-0
Wed 08-26 11:33 PM
— Kyle Schwarber hit his MLB-leading 40th home run, Jesús Luzardo struck out nine in seven innings and the Philadelphia Phillies beat the Seattle Mariners 6-0 Wednesday.
Jordan Lawlar Eduardo Rodriguez strikes out 9 in 7 innings as Diamondbacks beat Cubs 2-0
Wed 08-26 10:15 PM
— Eduardo Rodriguez struck out nine in seven innings, Jordan Lawlar homered and the Arizona Diamondbacks beat the Chicago Cubs 2-0 on Wednesday.

Leverage Buys/Sells

Buy/sell windows · surface vs. underlying.

Hitters

Player	Pos	MLB	BA	xBA	wOBA	xwOBA	Brl%	Own%	Signal
James Wood IL10	LF	Wsh	0.265	0.275	0.395	0.419	100.0	99.1	📈 BUY-LOW
Miguel Vargas	3B	ChW	0.251	0.268	0.369	0.390	93.0	95.2	📈 BUY-LOW
Kyle Schwarber	DH	Phi	0.243	0.237	0.376	0.366	98.0	99.6	📈 BUY-LOW
Bryce Eldridge BRV	1B	SF	0.252	0.251	0.343	0.352	77.0	8.1	↑ mild buy
Jac Caglianone	RF	KC	0.274	0.280	0.353	0.361	92.0	54.2	↑ mild buy
Zach Neto	SS	LAA	0.237	0.207	0.327	0.303	75.0	60.4	fair
Randy Arozarena	LF	Sea	0.272	0.261	0.365	0.348	52.0	93.8	fair
Yandy Diaz	1B	TB	0.301	0.288	0.364	0.356	41.0	92.7	↓ mild fade
Cole Carrigg	CF	Col	0.269	0.251	0.345	0.318	—	14.0	fair
Walker Jenkins	CF	Min	—	—	—	—	—	2.3	—
Ryan Jeffers	C	Min	0.276	0.254	0.374	0.355	—	41.5	fair
Henry Bolte	RF	Oak	0.272	0.243	0.328	0.307	44.0	4.5	↓ mild fade
Kaelen Culpepper	SS	Min	0.333	0.263	0.372	0.314	—	4.3	fair
Royce Lewis	3B	Min	0.234	0.243	0.311	0.317	75.0	17.7	↑ mild buy
Jordan Lawlar	3B	Ari	0.290	0.272	0.338	0.331	—	3.1	fair
Franklin Arias	SS	Bos	—	—	—	—	—	1.4	—
Ralphy Velazquez	1B	Cle	—	—	—	—	—	0.7	—
Angel Genao	SS	Cle	0.288	0.258	0.331	0.304	—	3.1	fair

Pitchers

Pitcher	Pos	MLB	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K-BB%	xwOBA-a	Brl%-a	Own%	Signal
Blake Snell	SP	LAD	21.0	2.57	1.05	2.29	19.5	0.236	0.0	88.1	↑ mild buy
Andres Munoz	RP	Sea	48.3	4.28	1.22	3.31	27.9	0.283	9.4	80.1	↑ mild buy
Joe Ryan IL15	SP	Min	125.7	4.08	1.15	3.49	21.2	0.290	10.5	90.1	fair
Jacob Misiorowski	SP	Mil	145.0	1.68	0.76	1.98	33.3	0.219	3.8	99.6	fair
Dylan Cease	SP	Tor	144.3	2.37	1.06	2.68	25.0	0.255	4.6	99.3	fair
Sandy Alcantara	SP	Mia	183.7	3.38	1.18	3.64	11.6	0.296	5.3	91.2	fair
Kyle Harrison	SP	Mil	103.3	2.79	1.12	3.24	23.6	0.280	6.8	78.4	fair
Eury Perez	SP	Mia	127.7	3.17	1.11	3.67	16.5	0.297	9.1	82.4	fair
Louis Varland	RP	Tor	67.7	1.20	0.99	2.24	24.6	0.233	4.4	86.3	↓ mild fade
Justin Martinez	RP	Ari	3.0	0.00	1.00	3.54	0.0	0.292	0.0	1.7	—

📰 MLB News — Top Fantasy Stories

🔒 Keepers — 2027 Slate

Peter's model (additive): rounds-saved (cost arbitrage spine) + current skill + career-grade pedigree + sample stability + Statcast over/under-performance trend, with age-decline (33+), closer/RP, and top-30 talent adjustments. Heavy on bargain-hunting.
Claude's model (multiplicative dynasty index): EFV(2027) = (3 + skill + upside) × age_mult × pos_mult; score = EFV − cost_replacement − mookie-lock. Compounds age curve and position scarcity.
Sorted by consensus rank (average of both models). MLB-inactive players surfaced in 🚑 Return Watch below.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict	Notes
1.5	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	21st	#2 (+24.4)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51	UFDA-G FV 55
2.0	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	25th	#1 (+25.5)	#3 (+21.2)	S · $21	UFDA
2.5	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	22nd	#3 (+21.3)	#2 (+27.1)	S · $27
4.5	Eury Perez	SP · 23yo	20th	#4 (+18.6)	#5 (+15.2)	A · $15	UFDA-G
5.5	Kyle Harrison	SP · 24yo	25th	#5 (+17.1)	#6 (+14.4)	A · $14	UFDA
6.0	Zach Neto	SS · 25yo	10th	#8 (+13.4)	#4 (+16.1)	A · $16
6.5	Bryce Eldridge	1B · 20yo	25th	#6 (+16.0)	#7 (+13.7)	A · $14	UFDA FV 55
8.0	Jac Caglianone	RF · 22yo	21st	#7 (+13.5)	— (+10.5)	A · $10	UFDA-G FV 55
8.5	Dylan Cease	SP · 30yo	4th	— (+11.9)	#8 (+11.7)	A · $12

NEW UFDA cap: Peter 3/3 · Claude 3/3 · BOTH = top 8 in both models. Peter only = his model values cost surplus more; Claude only = mine values projection / position scarcity more.

🚑 Return watch — would be keeper-eligible if they get MLB action this year. Rank shown is hypothetical (where they'd slot if eligible).

Player	Pos · Age	Cost	Peter (if elig.)	Claude (if elig.)
Walker Jenkins	CF · 20yo	25th	#15 (-2.0)	#13 (+1.4)
Franklin Arias	SS · 19yo	25th	#15 (-2.0)	#12 (+3.0)
Ralphy Velazquez	1B · 19yo	25th	#15 (-2.0)	#13 (+1.4)

Updated Thu Aug 27 · 4:22 AM ET

🌍 League-Wide Top Keepers

Top 10 keepers · all 12 teams · both models. Yours in green.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	Team	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict
1.5	Jesus Luzardo	SP · 28yo	KNIG	21st	#1 (+28.7)	#2 (+42.1)	S · $42
3.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	MIZ	21st	#5 (+24.4)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51
3.5	Jordan Walker	RF · 24yo	GARR	25th	#2 (+27.5)	#5 (+38.7)	S · $39
4.0	Bryan Baker	RP · 31yo	DORN	25th	#4 (+25.2)	#4 (+38.7)	S · $39
7.0	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	MIZ	25th	#3 (+25.5)	— (+21.2)	S · $21
7.0	Cam Schlittler	SP · 24yo	KRTZ	19th	— (+20.3)	#3 (+40.8)	S · $41
7.5	Ben Rice	1B · 27yo	DORN	20th	#6 (+23.1)	#9 (+24.0)	S · $24
7.5	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	MIZ	22nd	#9 (+21.3)	#6 (+27.1)	S · $27
9.0	Payton Tolle	SP · 22yo	FRST	25th	#7 (+23.0)	— (+19.8)	S · $20
9.0	Cristopher Sanchez	SP · 29yo	PEYT	9th	— (+18.2)	#7 (+26.9)	S · $27
9.5	Jose Soriano	SP · 27yo	BLOB	25th	#8 (+21.5)	— (+18.5)	S · $18
9.5	Otto Lopez	SS · 27yo	BLOB	20th	— (+20.3)	#8 (+25.1)	S · $25
10.5	Foster Griffin	SP · 30yo	GoOs	25th	#10 (+20.8)	— (+21.2)	S · $21
10.5	Nolan McLean	SP · 23yo	DORN	20th	— (+20.4)	#10 (+24.0)	S · $24

Updated Thu Aug 27 · 4:22 AM ET

🏚️ Keeper Cupboards

Every team's six best keepers · shade = dual-model consensus value. Cupboard score weights the top four heavily (the slots that get kept), keepers 5–8 taper. 100 = league's best cupboard.

Team	K1	K2	K3	K4	K5	K6	Cupboard
1MIZ	MisiorowskiR21	VargasR25	VarlandR22	PerezR20	HarrisonR25	NetoR10	100
2DORN	BakerR25	RiceR20	McLeanR20	PerdomoR21	BazzanaR25	WarrenR25	87
3GARR	WalkerR25	MessickR18	DinglerR22	CanzoneR25	RocchioR25	GrayR7	81
4KRTZ	BengeR25	SchlittlerR19	BurkeR25	McGonigleR17	MayR25	StewartR10	77
5KNIG	LuzardoR21	AbreuR15	deGromR13	MartinezR25	RodriguezR25	DuranR25	76
6FRAN	McCarthyR25	CavalliR21	LatzR25	BurnsR5	BradishR21	AntonacciR25	71
7GoOs	GriffinR25	BradleyR25	BurlesonR9	BaldwinR14	WachaR25	GomezR25	63
8BLOB	SorianoR25	LopezR20	ScottR25	LileR15	ArandaR14	BurgerR19	60
9THAR	BauersR25	GonzalesR25	RasmussenR8	O'BrienR17	WilliamsR11	KeaschallR21	60
10FRST	TolleR25	RouppR25	WheelerR8	RumfieldR25	BuxtonR7	CastroR17	56
11RAGE ▼ thin	HerreraR20	CamineroR5	EwingR25	BohmR18	LeeR21	ImanagaR9	53
12PEYT ▼ thin	SanchezR9	WooR8	HendersonR25	ArenadoR25	WetherholtR13	CameronR18	52

The bottom two rows are your trade marks — thin cupboards pay up for keepable pieces.

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