Miz-waukee’s Best — The Brandon League

Last updated Friday, September 18 · 11:08 AM ET

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Any player in the league universe · tap a result for the card.

☕ Morning Briefing

🏆 MIZ holds 1st place with 103.0 roto points, a comfortable 11.0-point cushion over Phil Swift's Flex Seal — but you've shed 3.0 pts since the last update, so don't sleep on the two categories where the margin is razor-thin: PEYT is just 1 SB behind you, and you're trailing FRST by a rounding-error 0.00 ERA that's worth a free roto point if your arms tighten up.

⚡ Walker Jenkins delivered yesterday — 3-for-4, 2 R, 1 HR, 2 RBI against the Angels — a strong showing from the MLB Pipeline #14 prospect (RI 89) now playing at the big-league level. Make sure Dylan Cease is slotted in your active lineup for tonight's start.

🌱 On the stash-and-wire front, Kemp Alderman (RI 86, FA) had a monster AAA line: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 1 BB vs. Scranton/WB — the kind of output that keeps him firmly on your stash board. Meanwhile, two early-signal contact heaters to watch: Michael Arroyo (L7: 82/99 heat, 0.549 xwOBAcon, 8 BBE) and Drew Gilbert (L7: 81/99, 0.546 xwOBAcon, 9 BBE) — small samples, not yet Heat Board–certified, but both flipped the switch recently.

📰 Around the league, Luis Castillo has been moved to the bullpen by Chicago after posting a brutal 7.76 ERA / 1.79 WHIP over 29 innings — a significant role change that removes him from SP consideration entirely. The Dodgers clinched the NL West, with Landon Knack contributing in that clincher before being recalled to the big-league roster [available (FA)] — he's a potential ERA/WHIP streaming option if you need rotation depth. Also worth noting: Devin Williams threw a bullpen session and may be nearing activation, though it's unclear whether he'd immediately reclaim the ninth inning with Kodai Senga holding down the closer role in Milwaukee.

ELIGIBILITYK. Schwarber 1B 8/10T. Saggese 3B 6/10

Your standing

1stof 12

103.0 roto pts +11.0 clear of 2nd

-3.0 pts vs last update

Top Gaps

W (7.0)

categories below mid-pack

Score change since last update

AVG -1.0ERA -1.0WHIP -1.0

🎯 Category Pressure

Category ranks vs. the league.

Rank →

Δ to #1

1017

1099

🥇

291

324

🥇

RBI

966

999

🥇

157

158

172

212

+54

AVG

.253

.254

.256

.260

+0.006

1283

1298

1463

+165

+14

103

+18

ERA

3.56

3.45

−0.00

WHIP

1.18

1.16

−0.00

📅 Yesterday's MIZ Box Scores (2026-09-17)

Loading box scores…

🏥 IL Rehab Tracker

IL players · rehab game logs.

On the IL, no rehab games yet: Kaelen Culpepper (IL10), Spencer Schwellenbach (IL60 · watch).

📊 League Activity (last 24h)

All adds, drops, and trades across the 12 teams.

Team	Move
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	+ Dedniel Nunez \| − Brett Baty
Phil Swift's Flex Seal	+ Cole Young \| − Ty France
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	+ Ray Kerr \| − Richie Palacios
Miz-waukee’s Best	+ Connor Norby \| − Royce Lewis
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	+ Andrew Painter \| − Walbert Urena
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	+ Rico Garcia \| − Ben Joyce
Phil Swift's Flex Seal	+ Dustin May \| − Xander Bogaerts
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	+ Ryan Zeferjahn \| − Joshua Baez

🏆 League Standings

Current roto points · 10,000-sim projected finish. FAAB = acquisition budget remaining.

100.0% to win the league · proj finish 1.0 · 103.1 roto pts

#	Team	Pts	FAAB	Win%	Proj Pts	Range	Proj Rk
1	MIZ Miz-waukee’s Best	103.0	$0	100.0%	103.1	101–105	1.0
2	PEYT Phil Swift's Flex Seal	92.0	$19	0.0%	91.4	89–94	2.0
3	KRTZ Photogenic Nick Kurtz	85.0	$10	0.0%	86.0	84–88	3.0
4	FRAN Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	79.5	$24	0.0%	80.3	78–83	4.0
5	BLOB Camp MVP	67.0	$168	0.0%	69.0	66–72	5.0
6	THAR Phil Mickeltits	62.5	$176	0.0%	61.7	60–64	6.2
7	GoOs I need Buck Showalter	62.5	$170	0.0%	60.5	58–63	6.7
8	KNIG Team Knighton	58.5	$132	0.0%	58.1	56–61	7.7
9	FRST Worst2First	46.5	$154	0.0%	47.2	45–50	9.2
10	DORN Dorn and Associates LLC	44.5	$89	0.0%	44.3	43–46	10.7
11	GARR The Boys of Summer	44.5	$155	0.0%	46.1	45–47	9.7
12	RAGE Ramirez Against the Machine	34.5	$163	0.0%	32.2	30–34	12.0

10,000 sims · fixed seed · noise CV talent 0.12 / idio 0.06 / team-cat 0.08 · assumes ATC rest-of-season rates

Your categories · projected roto points

R 12.0HR 12.0RBI 12.0SB 9.0AVG 8.6W 7.0SV 9.0K 10.9ERA 11.3WHIP 11.3

Winnable — push here: SB, AVG, W, SV.

🚨 Today's Streaming Board

171 of 200 GS · should be 190 · 19 behindBehind pace — stream aggressively

029 left · ~22.6/wk to cap · proj 180200

⏳ BP's post is late — Verdict pill is running on our score + Pitcher List for now (BP joins the top-2 once it posts).

Your starters + top FA streamers

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Dylan Cease	@ TEX	START	—	6.9	#3	Velocity down 2+ ticks, 1.80 WHIP last start; clear regression
Peter Lambert	vs ATL	START	—	5.1	#12	Fringe streamable; willing to test against Atlanta.
David Sandlin	vs DET	DART	—	5.3	—	tough DET lineup, strong skills
Connor Prielipp	@ LAA	DART	—	6.5	#17	High strikeout upside but elevated ratio risk, lower volume.
Zac Thornton	vs PHI	SIT	—	4.2	#16	Long-term doubt remains; consistently gives six decent frames.
Andrew Sears	@ CWS	SIT	—	6.4	#26	Unproven rookie; opponent offense the only hope.
Randy Dobnak	@ PIT	SIT	—	4.3	#18	Possibly underranked; safe floor but ceiling is mediocrity.
Cesar Perdomo	@ LAD	SIT	—	4.1	#25	Changeup-dependent longshot even against tough Dodgers lineup.
Tyler Phillips	@ SD	SIT	—	4.1	#27	Sporadic upside not worth the roster spot.
Kyle Leahy	vs WSH	SIT	—	2.7	—	tough WSH lineup, shaky recent form, short leash
Cade Povich	vs. MIL	SIT	—	—	#19	Limited track record; hoping for deep outing.

Openers filtered: Daniel Espino

Your staff: 3.45 ERA / 1.16 WHIP · GS 171/200 — Behind pace — stream aggressively. Verdict = the best 2 of BP · our score · Pitcher List, averaged (low outlier dropped); before BP posts it's our score + PL. ⚠ = our matchup score dissented — eyeball that one. Tap a MIZ score for the reasoning.

Tomorrow · 2 of yours + top 5 FA · Sat 9/19 · BP not out yet, so pill = our score + Pitcher List

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Joe Ryan	@ LAA	DART	—	5.2	—	soft LAA lineup, shaky recent form, short leash
Eury Pérez	@ SD	SIT	—	3.8	—	average SD lineup, shaky recent form, short leash
Christian Scott	vs PHI	START	—	6.8	—	average PHI lineup, hot recent form, strong skills
Freddy Peralta	vs BOS	START	—	6.6	—	average BOS lineup, hot recent form, strong skills
Andrew Alvarez	@ STL	START	—	6.1	—	average STL lineup, hot recent form
Hayden Wesneski	vs ATL	START	—	5.8	—	tough ATL lineup, hot recent form, strong skills
Robert Gasser	@ BAL	DART	—	5.6	—	average BAL lineup, hot recent form, hitter park

📼 Streamer Report Card

Does the Streaming Board actually work? Every pick it showed, frozen at pick time and graded off the real box score. Two scoreboards below: first our own calls — the Verdict ladder and MIZ (our matchup score, 0–10) — then the outside lists behind them, BP (RelieverRecon's daily BP Streamers post) and PL (Pitcher List's tier ranking). Grades are recomputed from raw lines on every build — the rubric can change, the history follows.

Last 30d · 336 starts graded over 29 days · GOOD+ 44% · BLOWUP 19% · agg ERA 4.48 · WHIP 1.38 · 4.4 K/start · 374 picks logged, 22 never started, 16 awaiting a box score — not graded

Grade mix · all 336 graded starts

GEM 51 GOOD 98 OK 124 BLOWUP 63

GEM6+ IP, ≤1 ER · or 6+ IP, 8+ K, ≤2 ERGOODquality start (6+ IP, ≤3 ER) · or 5+ IP, ≤2 EROKheld the line without earning GOODBLOWUP5+ ER · or under 4 IP with 4+ ERGOOD+ = GEM + GOOD. A pick whose starter never took the ball grades to nothing and leaves every rate below.

Cohort	n	GOOD+	BLOWUP	ERA
Q1 — Do our own calls work? · Verdict ladder + MIZ bands · live board rows only, nothing backfilled
Verdict · AUTO START	21	62%	19%	4.06
Verdict · START	46	52%	17%	4.65
Verdict · DART	78	45%	19%	4.56
Verdict · SIT	191	40%	19%	4.44
MIZ ≥ 5.0	101	53%	23%	4.51
MIZ 3.5–4.9	134	40%	19%	4.71
MIZ < 3.5	81	42%	15%	4.32
All live board picks	336	44%	19%	4.48
Q1 read — GOOD+ falls 62% · 52% · 45% · 40% down the rungs, but BLOWUP does not rise with it, and MIZ does not sort: 53% · 40% · 42% from the top band down.
Q2 — Which outside list earns the weight? · BP and PL graded on their own published lists · mostly rebuilt from git
PL · Auto Start	22	55%	23%	4.80
PL · Probably Start	50	52%	16%	4.30
PL · Questionable Start	93	51%	18%	4.31
PL · Do Not Start	146	38%	21%	4.74
BP · Auto thin	3	67%	0%	3.78
BP · Likely	15	53%	20%	4.06
All graded picks	336	44%	19%	4.48
Q2 read — against the 44% all-picks baseline, PL's top tiers clear it (55% · 52%) and BP's top tiers are too thin to call (67% · 53% on n=3 · n=15).

Rows are overlapping lenses on the same picks, not a partition — one start can be a PL Auto Start and a Verdict SIT at once, so they never sum to the headline; each group is read against its own baseline row.

⚠ Dissent check — the override is ahead so far — 60% GOOD+ on n=5. Splits are picks the board started over our MIZ sit-call (vs 44% for all live picks).

Calibration — do our numbers mean anything? · full season, 2026-06-29→2026-09-17 · 1094 graded picks · MIZ on 547, BP on 230, Verdict on 575

The ladder above asks whether the tiers sort. This asks the harder question: is the number a probability — when the board says 7, do 70% of those starts come back GOOD+? Bins are equal-count and merge until every one clears n=15; the walk-forward rows are scored against a model that only ever saw earlier days.

Score bin	n	mean	GOOD+	95% CI
MIZ score → P(GOOD+) · our matchup score, 0–10 · live rows only · n=547
MIZ 0.5–3.2	109	2.6	39%	30%–48%
MIZ 3.3–4.0	120	3.6	45%	36%–54%
MIZ 4.1–4.8	111	4.4	50%	41%–60%
MIZ 4.9–5.6	106	5.2	50%	41%–59%
MIZ 5.7–8.9	101	6.4	56%	47%–66%
All MIZ-scored picks	547	—	48%	—
BP score → P(GOOD+) · RelieverRecon's published rating · includes git-backfilled rows · n=230
BP 4.6–6.6	48	6.1	35%	23%–50%
BP 6.7–7.3	44	7.0	52%	38%–66%
BP 7.4–7.7	47	7.5	45%	31%–59%
BP 7.8–8.4	47	8.1	47%	33%–61%
BP 8.5–10.0	44	9.1	43%	30%–58%
All BP-scored picks	230	—	44%	—
Verdict tier → P(GOOD+) · the consensus call itself · live rows only
AUTO START	36	—	64%	48%–78%
START	74	—	55%	44%–66%
DART	152	—	47%	39%–55%
SIT	313	—	44%	39%–50%

Out-of-sample	n	value	vs
Walk-forward probability · logistic on MIZ, refit daily on earlier days only · from 2026-08-05 · 43 days
Brier — our probability	483	0.250	lower is better
Brier — flat base rate to date	483	0.253	we win by 0.004
Brier — verdict-tier history	483	0.254	we win by 0.005
Log loss — our probability	483	0.692	lower is better
ECE — our probability	483	0.069	5 equal-count bins
ECE bins · predicted p vs what actually happened
said 31%–45%	98	43%	off by 2%
said 45%–50%	95	38%	off by 10%
said 50%–55%	97	45%	off by 7%
said 55%–59%	96	47%	off by 10%
said 59%–74%	97	57%	off by 7%
Verdict — usable with caveats: ECE 0.069 over n=483 out-of-sample picks (≤0.03 well calibrated · ≤0.07 usable with caveats); edges the flat base rate on Brier (0.250 vs 0.253, a thin margin; log-loss ~coin-flip).

🔥 Today's Hitter Streamers

Top 10 FA bats for today's slate · score = split vs SP hand (35%) + SP softness (35%) + bat quality (15%) + trailing 15 days (10%) + park (5%) · facing an elite arm fades the score hard (feast on weak pitchers).

#	Hitter	Matchup	Why	Legs	Score
1	AUTO STARTTy France1B · 14% own	vs MIA · Phillips RHP	szn .333 xwOBAL15: 0.945 OPS (43 PA)L14 contact +1.7 (.407 xwOBAcon, 31 BBE)usually bats 4th (×1.05)beats 2 of 3 eligible startersPhillips .332 allowed · soft SP0.888 OPS vs RHP (288 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	75
2	AUTO STARTNathaniel Lowe1B · 1% own	vs ATH · Barnett RHP	szn .337 xwOBAL15: 0.821 OPS (40 PA)L14 contact +2.6 (.428 xwOBAcon, 24 BBE)usually bats 5thbeats 2 of 3 eligible startersBarnett .350 allowed · soft SP0.84 OPS vs RHP (323 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	72
3	STARTRyan JeffersC · 38% own	@ LAA · Rodriguez RHP	szn .350 xwOBAL15: 0.479 OPS (38 PA)L14 contact -1.3 (.342 xwOBAcon, 23 BBE)usually bats 4th (×1.05)beats 1 of 2 eligible startersRodriguez .356 allowed · soft SP0.843 OPS vs RHP (189 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	71
4	AUTO STARTRafael Flores Jr.1B · 3% own	vs KC · Dobnak RHP	szn .341 xwOBAL15: 0.966 OPS (42 PA)L14 contact +4.4 (.467 xwOBAcon, 28 BBE)usually bats 4th (×1.05)beats 3 of 4 eligible startersshort side vs RHP — 51% of ABDobnak .325 allowed · avg SP0.796 OPS vs RHP (65 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	67
5	AUTO STARTDustin HarrisLF · 2% own	vs MIA · Phillips RHP	szn .336 xwOBAL15: 0.871 OPS (39 PA)L14 contact -0.4 (.362 xwOBAcon, 32 BBE)usually bats 2nd (×1.10)fills OF needbeats 4 of 6 eligible startersPhillips .332 allowed · soft SP0.792 OPS vs RHP (83 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	65
6	CONSIDERLuis CampusanoC · 1% own	vs MIA · Phillips RHP	szn .328 xwOBAL15: 0.741 OPS (51 PA)L14 contact +0.5 (.381 xwOBAcon, 38 BBE)usually bats 6th (×0.98)beats 0 of 2 eligible startersPhillips .332 allowed · soft SP0.808 OPS vs RHP (158 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	56
7	STARTLars NootbaarLF · 2% own	vs NYY · Cole RHP	szn .346 xwOBAL15: 0.829 OPS (40 PA)L14 contact +2.3 (.421 xwOBAcon, 24 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)fills OF needbeats 3 of 6 eligible startersCole .303 allowed · avg SP0.77 OPS vs RHP (217 AB)AZ plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	55
8	AUTO STARTEdmundo Sosa2B · 1% own	@ NYM · Thornton LHP	szn .328 xwOBAusually bats 6th (×0.98)fills OF needbeats 7 of 11 eligible startersThornton .329 allowed · soft SP0.781 OPS vs LHP (120 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	53
9	AUTO STARTChristian Encarnacion-Strand1B · 3% own	vs MIL · May RHP	szn .342 xwOBAL15: 1.022 OPS (51 PA)L14 contact +3.2 (.442 xwOBAcon, 29 BBE)usually bats 6th (×0.98)beats 3 of 4 eligible startersMay .317 allowed · avg SP0.702 OPS vs RHP (110 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	51
10	AUTO STARTJ.P. CrawfordSS · 5% own	@ COL · TBD	szn .323 xwOBAL15: 0.740 OPS (60 PA)L14 contact -3.8 (.285 xwOBAcon, 42 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)beats 3 of 5 eligible startersSP: TBDCOL plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	51

Tiers vs YOUR lineup tonight — median starter 48, worst Henry Bolte (18). AUTO START = beats the median eligible starter.

TBD starter = neutral SP + split legs until the probable posts (refresh upgrades it). Splits need 30+ AB vs that hand. IL bats are excluded; bats who rarely start against tonight's hand are dropped. Doubleheaders: legs average the ends he plays, and everyday bats get up to a ×1.50 volume boost. Lineup slot scales the score by expected PAs from the bat's usual spot (leadoff ×1.12 … 9-hole ×0.90, modal over the last ~10 played days) — his typical order, not today's card, since that posts after waivers run.

🎯 FA Hitters — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Kyle Schwarber

1Moises BallesterosC · LAA · 1.8%HEATER

28 BBE trusted sample, 0.420 xwOBAcon, sustained production L14 and L7 with most PA among +0 sim candidates

Heat 76 · 28 BBE · ATC 33 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.248 · L7 0.375 · 1 HR · sim +0.0 pts

2Rafael Flores Jr.

1B · Pit · 2.7% · HEATER

Best xwOBAcon in field (0.467, 28 BBE trusted), .400 BA and HR last 7 days corroborate heat

Heat 77 · 28 BBE · ATC 21 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.234 · L7 0.4 · 1 HR · sim +0.0 pts

3Ty France

1B · SD · 14.3% · BEST VALUE

Only +0.1 sim gain; 31 BBE heat board leader, .407 xwOBAcon, .412 BA last 7 — most reliable floor

Heat 72 · 31 BBE · ATC 41 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.259 · L7 0.412 · 0 HR · sim +0.1 pts

4Lars Nootbaar

LF · Ari · 2.4% · FLOOR

Highest ATC wRC+ (109) among remaining; everyday PT in Arizona, best projection-based ceiling here

Heat 75 · 24 BBE · ATC 28 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.248 · L7 0.263 · 1 HR · sim +0.0 pts

5Randal Grichuk

RF · ChW · 0.5% · HEATER

26 BBE, .406 BA L14 with HR production; real PT signal despite ChW, backs up heat score

Heat 69 · 26 BBE · ATC 13 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.249 · L7 0.318 · 1 HR · sim +0.0 pts

Passed on: Drew Gilbert has two legit flare signals (0.546 xwOBAcon, 2 HR/4 R/1 SB last 7) but only 9 BBE sub-threshold with no ATC volume to trust — pure noise risk on a thin sample.

💪 Hitter List Rankings

PL Top 150 hitters · your bats + top FAs.

On Hitter List · 17 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Hitter	MLB	Pos	Chg	AVG	xwOBA	HR	SB	RoS	Chu’s Take
16	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	DH	+3	.236	.364	45	3	123
18	Randy Arozarena	SEA	OF	-	.278	.346	25	23	127
21	Miguel Vargas	CHW	1B/3B	+19	.248	.378	31	19	115	Miguel Vargas has returned to the levels we saw early this summer and that really revs my engine. He’s one of those players who has shown…
36	Yandy Díaz	TB	1B	+3	.295	.347	22	3	122
46	Zach Neto	LAA	SS	+11	.241	.311	26	21	111	Zach Neto has been a monster over the last nine games, with 17 hits, 18 combined runs and RBI (a seven RBI night helps), and seven extra-…
59	Jac Caglianone	KC	1B/OF	+13	.277	.353	23	6	107	Jac Caglianone still hits a lot of grounders, but not quite as many as before (the rolling 15-game rate is a hair below 50%) and the stri…
72	Ty France	SD	1B	+12	.299	.333	20	1	108
77	Royce Lewis	MIN	1B/2B/3B	-15	.226	.308	14	15	96	Royce Lewis is streaky. We just gotta deal with that.
85	Cole Carrigg	COL	SS/OF	-22	.266	.311	10	9	66	The strikeouts have creeped up on Cole Carrigg , up to 32% over his last 11 games (which is, conveniently, exactly 50 plate appearances).…
106	Luis Robert Jr.	BAL	OF	+UR	.221	.321	11	2	100
109	Mickey Gasper	BOS	C/1B	+UR	.263	.369	9	0	104	Mickey Gasper — Fantastic mustache, first of all. Second of all, the batted ball data suggests what’s happening of late is very real, tho…
114	Joshua Báez	STL	OF	+UR	.230	.303	7	2	98	Joshua Báez — The 40% strikeout rate is as believable as the power, though I do expect another homer outburst or two before the season is…
115	Kaelen Culpepper	MIN	SS	+UR	.275	.298	3	1	90	Kaelen Culpepper — Culpepper puts a lot of balls in play and it’s working out so far. The BABIP Gods can be cruel, though. The 55 point g…
119	Rafael Flores Jr.	PIT	C/1B	+UR	.268	.341	9	0	82
133	Connor Norby	COL	1B/2B/3B	+UR	.235	.306	7	9	90	Connor Norby still has huge contact issues but the guy can hit the ball hard in the air and plays for Colorado so stream away.
135	Henry Bolte	ATH	OF	+UR	.275	.318	11	21	93	Henry Bolte is leading off again and should get some games in Sacramento soon, if you need a streamer.
137	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	BAL	1B/3B	+UR	.277	.342	10	1	91
143	Alejandro Kirk	TOR	C	+UR	.280	.312	10	1	113
145	Tyler Stephenson	CIN	C	-33	.247	.332	15	0	94
146	Ryan Jeffers	MIN	C	-29	.259	.350	14	1	116
TS	Bryce Eldridge	SF	1B	—	.269	.359	17	1	99	Bryce Eldridge (1B, SFG) — Power prospects can often take a while to really shine.
TS	Walker Jenkins	Min	OF	—	.143	.273	2	1	102	Walker Jenkins (OF, MIN) — Jenkins will get the call today after a white-hot month in the triple-A. He’s worth a scoop in most leagues, E…
UR	Emmanuel Rodriguez	Min	OF	—	.217	.424	1	0	95	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	James Wood	Wsh	OF	—	.265	.412	30	21	126	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Leo Bernal	StL	C	—	.295	.378	3	0	84	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Thomas Saggese	StL	2B/SS/OF	—	.267	.319	4	4	83	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Victor Mesa Jr.	TB	OF	—	.252	.335	13	9	88	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.

🔥 Heat Board

Hottest ACTIVE free-agent bats by contact quality, 9/4–9/17 · Heat = percentile vs all MLB bats over the same window (xwOBAcon 30 · EV 20 · Brl 20 · HH 15 · K 10 · BB 5) · min 15 BBE to qualify (smaller samples live in the HM rail) · IL excluded.

Rafael Flores Jr.

1B · Pit · 2.7% own · xwOBAcon .467 · EV 92.2 · Brl 10.7% · 28 BBE

▲ .137 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.268	9	20	15	0
L14	.405	2	3	3	0

Brett Baty

3B · NYM · 2.8% own · xwOBAcon .404 · EV 93.8 · Brl 13.6% · 22 BBE

▲ .091 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.229	10	50	48	5
L14	.320	2	7	3	0

Moises Ballesteros

C · LAA · 1.8% own · xwOBAcon .420 · EV 91.5 · Brl 10.7% · 28 BBE

▲ .166 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.228	9	35	25	1
L14	.394	2	6	3	0

Nathaniel Lowe

1B · Cle · 1.4% own · xwOBAcon .428 · EV 91.7 · Brl 12.5% · 24 BBE

▲ .012 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.255	17	59	38	0
L14	.267	2	7	4	0

Lars Nootbaar

LF · Ari · 2.4% own · xwOBAcon .421 · EV 92.3 · Brl 8.3% · 24 BBE

▲ .052 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.238	7	31	31	2
L14	.290	1	4	2	0

Francisco Alvarez

C · NYM · 8.8% own · xwOBAcon .444 · EV 91.5 · Brl 13.6% · 22 BBE

▼ .050 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.226	15	37	33	0
L14	.176	2	3	4	0

Richie Palacios

LF · TB · 3.6% own · xwOBAcon .365 · EV 90.5 · Brl 13.0% · 23 BBE

▲ .112 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.234	10	52	51	14
L14	.346	4	11	7	3

Taylor Trammell

CF · Hou · 0.1% own · xwOBAcon .427 · EV 90.6 · Brl 17.6% · 17 BBE

▼ .025 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.210	8	22	29	4
L14	.185	1	2	3	0

Ty France

1B · SD · 14.3% own · xwOBAcon .407 · EV 92.0 · Brl 9.7% · 31 BBE

▲ .069 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.299	20	66	54	1
L14	.368	0	4	5	0

Randal Grichuk

RF · ChW · 0.5% own · xwOBAcon .420 · EV 92.8 · Brl 3.8% · 26 BBE

▲ .120 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.286	13	39	36	0
L14	.406	2	5	4	0

Honorable mention · hottest L7 (9/11–9/17), not yet on the board · tiny samples — peek, don't trust

Michael Arroyo

2B · Sea

.549 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .444 L7

Drew Gilbert

RF · SF

.546 xwOBAcon

9 BBE · .250 L7

Pavin Smith

1B · Ari

.465 xwOBAcon

10 BBE · .333 L7

Brady House

3B · Wsh

.367 xwOBAcon

10 BBE · .167 L7

Andres Chaparro

1B · Wsh

.489 xwOBAcon

9 BBE · .333 L7

John Rave

RF · KC

.444 xwOBAcon

10 BBE · .143 L7

🎯 FA Pitchers — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Andres Munoz

1Andrew SearsSP · Det · 0.3%HEATER

Elite 88th-percentile suppression on trusted 31-BBE sample; ratio-safe volume SP for ERA/WHIP protection

Supp 88 · 31 BBE · ATC 4.0 IP · 0 W · 4 K · 4.36 · 1.36 · PL #26 · sim -0.1 pts

2Dylan Smith

RP · SF · 0.4% · CATEGORY FIT

Closer role confirmed, 62nd-pct suppression on 18 BBE, cleanest ratio profile among available closers

Supp 62 · 18 BBE · ATC 4.0 IP · 0 W · 3 K · 3.84 · 1.31 · 1 SV · Closer · sim -0.1 pts

3Steven Cruz

RP · KC · 1.4% · CATEGORY FIT

Closer role, saves upside, 52nd-pct suppression; sub-15 BBE so role trust carries more weight than contact data

Supp 52 · 11 BBE · ATC 4.0 IP · 0 W · 4 K · 4.24 · 1.31 · 1 SV · Closer · sim -0.1 pts

4Connor Prielipp

SP · Min · 3.9% · BEST VALUE

4.00 ERA projection, 62nd-pct suppression on 31 BBE, streamer-ranked #17; ratio-safe GS volume with cap room

Supp 62 · 31 BBE · ATC 8.0 IP · 0 W · 8 K · 4.00 · 1.32 · PL #17 · sim -0.2 pts

5Juan Morillo

RP · Ari · 3.1% · UPSIDE

Closer role confirmed; 14-BBE suppression undersized but ATC saves projection adds SV depth at low cost

Supp 45 · 14 BBE · ATC 3.0 IP · 0 W · 3 K · 3.83 · 1.36 · 1 SV · Closer · sim -0.1 pts

Passed on: Ben Joyce is the highest-leverage closer available but his 9th-percentile suppression on 14 BBE is a hard stop — adding him risks bleeding ERA and WHIP from MIZ's razor-thin top-2 cushion in both ratio categories.

⚾ Pitcher List Rankings

PL Top 100 SP · your arms + top FAs.

On Pitcher List · 6 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Pitcher	MLB	Chg	ERA	xERA	K/9	RoS	Pollack’s Take
1	Jacob Misiorowski	MIL	-	1.89	2.08	13.1	3.40	Like a base set Charizard, Misiorowski’s not gonna stop being dope.
9	Blake Snell	LAD	+7	1.86	2.15	12.1	3.31	#HotSnellSummer is in full swing.
10	Dylan Cease	TOR	-1	2.38	2.79	12.8	3.45	Like a perfect burger without the condiments to hit all your macros, Cease gives you everything except for a stable WHIP due to his infla…
20	Kyle Harrison	MIL	+8	4.25	3.96	10.9	4.19	With a dominant outing, he muted our concerns, but Harrison’s still displaying decreased velocity and not commanding as well as he did in…
22	Eury Pérez	MIA	-4	3.99	4.10	9.7	3.91	Pérez has the stuff to be an ace, but there’s polishing to do in the command and game plan departments to unlock his full potential.
29	Sean Burke	CHW	-4	3.47	3.82	9.7	4.43	Burke’s hot streak has come to a brief pause, but he’s still doing everything he’s supposed to with elite four-seamers upstairs and suppo…
30	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	-4	3.84	3.90	6.5	4.17	Baseball’s premier innings eater hasn’t ruined his appetite.
38	Jacob Lopez	ATH	+6	5.02	3.50	8.4	4.55	It’s the 2025 hot streak all over again. Enjoy the ride, ya’ll!
40	Walbert Ureña	LAA	-	2.74	3.28	8.7	4.49	Armed with upper-90s heaters and one of the best changeups in baseball, Ureña has hit few speed bumps. If that developing sweeper becomes…
45	Peter Lambert	HOU	-4	3.71	3.69	8.7	4.61	Lambert’s stumble last time was a product of being Singled Out . He’s been reliable all year, but we should be recognizing that Holly is …
46	Jared Jones	PIT	-8	4.17	3.43	10.8	3.97	The stuff is top-tier, but he’s still shaking off the Tommy John surgery rust with his command and the tight leash the Pirates have on hi…
54	Joey Cantillo	CLE	-8	3.89	4.16	9.9	4.05	Efficiency is a problem, but Cantillo is doing everything we want. More curveballs, faster fastballs, and supportive cutters. Throw more …
56	Shane Bieber	TOR	+14	4.37	5.96	7.1	4.05	Bieber is back in business. His heater looked awesome in The Trop, and his offspeed pitches are being the CSW monsters they need to be to…
58	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	-	3.77	3.85	6.1	4.67	Despite what the line suggests, Pfaadt’s last start wasn’t an end to his Vargas Rule . It was a textbook Careful, Icarus with a three-run…
59	Christian Scott	NYM	+1	3.76	3.69	10.9	4.04	Scott has been happy to show us his floor, but the stuff is still there to propel him up The List at a moment’s notice. It’s felt a littl…
60	Sean Manaea	NYM	-4	4.74	4.86	8.6	4.32	The velo was 93+ last time, and he’s still supporting it with an elite sweeper. Manaea’s command has prevented him from excelling across …

🔒 Closer Chart

Save targets · roles + regression flags.

BLUEEntrenched closer (highest leverage)GREENNext man up / committee pieceYELLOWSetup, 8th-inning leverageORANGESpeculative / lower priorityMAGENTAHigh-upside future / multi-inning

	Pitcher	Tm	Role	SV	SVHD	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K/9	Rtg / Own
Yours on the chart
—	Andrés Muñoz	Seattle Mariners	CL	27	27	56.0	4.18	1.20	3.28	14.0	5.0 · —
—	Louis Varland	Toronto Blue Jays	CL	34	39	76.0	1.30	1.00	2.30	11.2	5.0 · —
Top 5 FA closers (by team rating)
	Ben Joyce	Los Angeles Angels	CL	5	7	14.3	4.40	1.19	3.96	11.3	4.0 · 5%
	Dylan Smith	San Francisco Giants	CL	4	11	36.0	3.50	1.47	3.98	10.5	4.0 · 0%
—	Steven Cruz HLR	Kansas City Royals	CL	7	12	56.7	4.13	1.25	3.96	9.8	3.5 · 1%
—	Michael Petersen	Miami Marlins	CL	1	26	61.3	3.08	1.11	3.43	10.9	3.0 · 2%
	Juan Morillo	Arizona Diamondbacks	CL	3	21	60.3	2.24	1.04	2.42	10.4	1.0 · 3%

ERA cell: green <3.00 · red >4.50. xERA arrow: ↓ ERA likely to fall (buy) · ↑ ERA likely to rise (sell). Triggers when |xERA−ERA| ≥ 1.00.

✂️ Cut List

Drop priority · value, form, pedigree, role.

49	Connor Norby 3B · Col low TV (5); hot — soft cut signal; UFDA — easy to drop sim cost ~0	TV 5 UFDA
45	Jared Jones SP · Pit low TV (19); UFDA — easy to drop; BUT solid keeper sim cost ~0	TV 19 UFDA
29	Blake Snell SP · LAD mid TV (42); injury status: DTD; BUT strong RoS (3.31 ERA) sim cost ~0	TV 42 Rd 8
24	Sandy Alcantara SP · Mia mid TV (58); cold last 7d; BUT solid keeper sim cost ~0	TV 58 Rd 14
16	Yandy Diaz 1B · TB BUT strong RoS (122 wRC+) sim cost ~0	TV 73 Rd 9

Higher score = drop sooner — top 5 by score, and only 8+ reaches the board, so the number has no ceiling and is only comparable within this list. The sim line is a roto-sim marginal (cut vs. keep on one shared set of draws), not a measured cost. Pedigree + named closers shielded.

🌱 Stash List

PL's top prospects · grab them cheap.

Hitters

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 24: Top 10 Hitting Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + PSS + PFV + age + 40-man + path.

17 available

M. Arroyo

SS · SEA · AAA · 21 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

19·18·.284

J. Tibbs III

OF · LAD · AAA · 23 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

29·10·.289

S. Thompson

OF · COL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

15·21·.308

H. Mendez

OF · MIN · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

12·5·.286

M. Anderson

2B · DET · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

17·5·.301

R. Clifford

1B · NYM · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

18·8·.181

K. Alderman

OF · MIA · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

19·10·.252

C. Ingle

C · CLE · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

20·2·.281

C. Cannarella

OF · MIA · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

15·21·.326

S. King

SS/2B/3B · WSN · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

20·15·.306

R. Ward

LF · LAD · AAA · 28 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

21·8·.246

J. Long

1B · CHC · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

16·3·.274

B. Davidson

OF · SFG · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

September

Szn

29·19·.284

E. Arroyo

SS · CIN · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

15·14·.278

R. Velazquez

1B/C · CLE · AA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

29·2·.293

D. Crisantes

2B/3B · ARI · AAA · 21 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

10·0·.289

T. Troy

SS · ARI · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

8·8·.278

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

Pitchers

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 24: Top 10 Pitching Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + L3 quality + FV + age + 40-man + path.

24 available

O. Murphy

SP · ATL · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

129K·3.70

T. Johnson

SP · TBR · AAA · 24 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

89K·3.17

B. Hopkins

SP · TBR · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

124K·5.25

B. Mautz

SP · STL · AAA · 24 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

104K·4.27

H. Smith

SP · CHW · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

August 1st

Szn

121K·3.40

L. Perales

SP · WSN · AAA · 23 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

108K·4.10

A. Kelly

SP · PIT · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

80K·4.34

C. Seymour

SP · SFG · AAA · 27 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

89K·4.12

K. Curtis

SP · PIT · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

118K·4.86

R. Snelling

SP · MIA · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

46K·2.38

D. Davalillo

SP · TEX · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

106K·4.62

M. Bratt

SP · ARI · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

90K·3.95

G. Wood

SP · PHI · AA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

'26

Szn

139K·4.36

E. Rodriguez

SP · NYY · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

126K·3.05

T. McDougal

SP · CHW · AAA · 23 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

51K·4.98

B. Garrett

SP · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

June 1st

Szn

114K·3.76

R. Ryan

SP · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

47K·4.39

C. Dana

SP · LAA · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

86K·5.52

R. Sloan

SP · SEA · AA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

128K·3.73

C. Lagrange

SP · NYY · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

July 1st

Szn

85K·4.48

C. Crow

SP · MIL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

106K·3.95

J. Wenninger

SP · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

123K·4.54

T. Gibson

SP · BAL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

107K·5.26

L. Braun

SP · ATL · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

112K·4.18

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

🔭 12 not a 2026 factor — Jackson Ferris · Anthony Eyanson · Jurrangelo Cijntje · Liam Doyle · Christian Zazueta · Jackson Wolf · Jaxon Wiggins · Bryce Mayer · David Hagaman · Jonathan Santucci · Joseph Dzierwa · Karson Milbrandt

💼 Trades

Buy-low targets · league trade history.

Top Buy-Lows

Rebound candidates · suggested offers.

Hitters

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Juan Soto RF · NYM · GARR · jregarris +1.3σ buy-low · RF — fits a need · BA 0.270 / xBA 0.295 · xwOBA 0.413	100%	158 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Kyle Schwarber DH · comparable value (TV 100 vs target 100)
📈 BUY-LOW	Cal Raleigh C · Sea · KNIG · TKHOO +1.7σ buy-low · C — modest fit · BA 0.182 / xBA 0.191 · xwOBA 0.313	85%	129 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Miguel Vargas 3B · comparable value (TV 77 vs target 82)
📈 BUY-LOW	JJ Bleday CF · Cin · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.2σ buy-low · CF — fits a need · BA 0.213 / xBA 0.238 · xwOBA 0.339	20%	100 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Cole Carrigg CF · comparable value (TV 12 vs target 17)
↑ mild buy	Taylor Ward LF · Sea · GoOs · My Best Guys +0.7σ buy-low · LF — fits a need · BA 0.222 / xBA 0.240 · xwOBA 0.333	56%	120 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Sandy Alcantara SP · comparable value (TV 58 vs target 60)
📈 BUY-LOW	Heriberto Hernandez LF · Mia · FRAN · francisw789 +1.1σ buy-low · LF — fits a need · BA 0.232 / xBA 0.247 · xwOBA 0.350	8%	99 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Henry Bolte RF + +$4 FAAB · comparable value (TV 15 vs target 23)
↑ mild buy	Ian Happ LF · ChC · FRAN · francisw789 +0.8σ buy-low · LF — fits a need · BA 0.219 / xBA 0.208 · xwOBA 0.317	69%	109 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 35 vs target 41)
↑ mild buy	Kyle Stowers LF · Mia · KNIG · TKHOO +0.7σ buy-low · LF — fits a need · BA 0.239 / xBA 0.224 · xwOBA 0.324	27%	111 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Jared Jones SP + +$4 FAAB · comparable value (TV 19 vs target 27)
↑ mild buy	Dominic Canzone RF · Sea · GARR · jregarris +0.5σ buy-low · RF — fits a need · BA 0.257 / xBA 0.268 · xwOBA 0.353	12%	114 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 35 vs target 34)
↑ mild buy	Jarren Duran LF · Bos · RAGE · glhoward40 +0.8σ buy-low · LF — fits a need · BA 0.203 / xBA 0.232 · xwOBA 0.296	65%	100 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Eury Perez SP + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 50 vs target 57)
📈 BUY-LOW	Munetaka Murakami 3B · ChW · GARR · jregarris +1.9σ buy-low · 3B · BA 0.205 / xBA 0.199 · xwOBA 0.342	82%	120 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Sandy Alcantara SP · comparable value (TV 58 vs target 62)

Pitchers

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Kodai Senga SP · NYM · KRTZ · FratSkins +1.1σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 7.05 vs xERA 5.16	11%	3.88 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Cole Carrigg CF · comparable value (TV 12 vs target 14)
↑ mild buy	Kade Anderson SP · Sea · RAGE · glhoward40 +0.7σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 5.33 vs xERA 4.24	17%	4.61 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Cole Carrigg CF · comparable value (TV 12 vs target 16)
↑ mild buy	Andrew Painter SP · Phi · KRTZ · FratSkins +0.7σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 5.54 vs xERA 4.55	15%	4.71 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Cole Carrigg CF · comparable value (TV 12 vs target 15)

League History

Completed trades · frozen grade at the deal + live grade now.

Side	Sent	At deal	Now	Trend
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Andy Pages	A- +7	A+ +46	▲ up
Camp MVP	Pete Crow-Armstrong	C -7	F -46	▼ down
Team Knighton ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Team Knighton	Matthew Boyd	F -22	F -23
Camp MVP	Kenley Jansen	A+ +22	A+ +23
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Worst2First 2026-08-10
Miz-waukee’s Best	Charlie Condon, Payton Tolle	A+ +50	A+ +32	▼ down
Worst2First	Dylan Cease	F -50	F -32	▲ up
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Dorn and Associates LLC 2026-08-05
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Travis Bazzana, George Lombard Jr., Nolan McLean	A+ +144	A+ +106	▼ down
Dorn and Associates LLC	Jackson Chourio, Jhoan Duran, Brice Turang, David Bednar	F -144	F -106	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-07-31
Miz-waukee’s Best	Samuel Basallo, Kade Anderson	A- +8	C -6	▼ down
Ramirez Against the Machine	Blake Snell	C -8	A- +6	▲ up
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Team Knighton 2026-07-23
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Jo Adell, Jacob deGrom	F -49	F -64	▼ down
Team Knighton	Trea Turner	A+ +49	A+ +64	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine ⇄ Miz-waukee’s Best 2026-07-19
Ramirez Against the Machine	Sandy Alcantara	F -42	F -29	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best	Josh Jung	A+ +42	A+ +29	▼ down
I need Buck Showalter ⇄ Hit the Damn Ball You Bums 2026-06-19
I need Buck Showalter	Nasim Nunez	A+ +28	A +11	▼ down
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Justin Wrobleski	F -28	D -11	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ The Boys of Summer 2026-06-12
Miz-waukee’s Best	Chandler Simpson	A +10	C -8	▼ down
The Boys of Summer	$30 FAAB	D -10	A- +8	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-05-01
Miz-waukee’s Best	Kenley Jansen	—	A- +7
Camp MVP	$30 FAAB	A- +3	C -7	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-04-22
Miz-waukee’s Best	Nathan Eovaldi, $70 FAAB	—	F -41
Ramirez Against the Machine	Jac Caglianone	A+ +60	A+ +41	▼ down

🔻 Sell-High — My Roster

Surface line outrunning the underlying skill — trade-value peaks. σ = his surface-stat z-score minus his Statcast-skill z-score, both against the league reference for his side — bigger σ = further ahead of the skill. Pair with Buy-Low Targets.

Verdict	Player	Own	Surface vs expected	Contact	2027 keeper
↓ SHOP	Cole Carrigg CF · Col 0.66σ sell-high · CF · BA 0.266 / xBA 0.245 · xwOBA 0.311 — test the market, don't force it	14%	BA 0.266 / xBA 0.245 +.021 wOBA 0.343 / xwOBA 0.311 +.032	HH 36.2% · Brl/PA 3.6%	25th · +5 rds vs mkt
↓ SHOP	Yandy Diaz 1B · TB 0.57σ sell-high · 1B · BA 0.295 / xBA 0.283 · xwOBA 0.347 — test the market, don't force it	93%	BA 0.295 / xBA 0.283 +.012 wOBA 0.353 / xwOBA 0.347 +.006	HH 48.2% · Brl/PA 5.5%	7th · +1 rd vs mkt
↓ SHOP	Henry Bolte RF · Oak 0.53σ sell-high · RF · BA 0.275 / xBA 0.246 · xwOBA 0.318 — test the market, don't force it	12%	BA 0.275 / xBA 0.246 +.029 wOBA 0.340 / xwOBA 0.318 +.022	HH 47.9% · Brl/PA 4.9%	25th · +5 rds vs mkt

👥 Your Roster

Your roster · news + buy/sell signals.

News (last 24h)

Player news · last 24h.

Henry Bolte Fantasy baseball lineup advice for Friday: Give Seymour the nod vs. Red Sox
Fri 09-18 11:27 AM
Everything you need to know to set your fantasy baseball lineups for Thursday's MLB action.
Jacob Misiorowski Witnessing Jacob Misiorowski's Cy Young-worthy season
Fri 09-18 10:34 AM
What's it like seeing a Cy Young favorite unleash a 105 mph fastball? We asked those around the Brewers' breakout star.
Walker Jenkins Angels walk off the Twins in extras
Fri 09-18 04:50 AM
Angels walk off the Twins in extras

Leverage Buys/Sells

Buy/sell windows · surface vs. underlying.

Hitters

Player	Pos	MLB	BA	xBA	wOBA	xwOBA	Brl%	Own%	Signal
James Wood	LF	Wsh	0.265	0.274	0.389	0.412	100.0	99.0	📈 BUY-LOW
Kyle Schwarber	DH	Phi	0.236	0.238	0.370	0.364	98.0	99.5	📈 BUY-LOW
Miguel Vargas	3B	ChW	0.248	0.265	0.359	0.378	88.0	94.9	📈 BUY-LOW
Bryce Eldridge	1B	SF	0.269	0.260	0.361	0.359	75.0	14.2	↑ mild buy
Jac Caglianone	RF	KC	0.277	0.277	0.350	0.353	90.0	44.5	fair
Zach Neto	SS	LAA	0.241	0.214	0.334	0.311	75.0	61.2	fair
Randy Arozarena	LF	Sea	0.278	0.258	0.373	0.346	51.0	94.2	fair
Cole Carrigg	CF	Col	0.266	0.245	0.343	0.311	25.0	14.2	↓ mild fade
Walker Jenkins	CF	Min	0.143	0.182	0.254	0.273	—	3.9	fair
Henry Bolte	RF	Oak	0.275	0.246	0.340	0.318	53.0	11.9	↓ mild fade
Yandy Diaz	1B	TB	0.295	0.283	0.353	0.347	46.0	92.5	↓ mild fade
Kaelen Culpepper IL10	SS	Min	0.275	0.245	0.326	0.298	—	4.0	fair
Emmanuel Rodriguez	CF	Min	0.217	0.322	0.308	0.424	—	0.9	—
Leo Bernal	C	StL	0.295	0.303	0.360	0.378	—	3.9	fair
Victor Mesa Jr.	LF	TB	0.252	0.253	0.353	0.335	—	14.2	fair
Thomas Saggese	2B	StL	0.267	0.252	0.315	0.319	—	10.2	fair
Connor Norby	3B	Col	0.235	0.215	0.321	0.306	51.0	2.4	fair

Pitchers

Pitcher	Pos	MLB	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K-BB%	xwOBA-a	Brl%-a	Own%	Signal
Andres Munoz	RP	Sea	56.0	4.18	1.20	3.28	27.4	0.281	8.9	79.6	↑ mild buy
Jared Jones	SP	Pit	90.7	4.17	1.19	3.43	20.5	0.287	7.6	24.1	↑ mild buy
Blake Snell DTD	SP	LAD	38.7	1.86	1.09	2.15	22.9	0.228	1.1	84.8	↑ mild buy
Joe Ryan	SP	Min	133.7	4.24	1.17	3.66	20.7	0.296	10.2	86.9	fair
Jacob Misiorowski	SP	Mil	166.3	1.89	0.81	2.08	31.6	0.224	3.8	99.1	fair
Sandy Alcantara	SP	Mia	206.0	3.84	1.23	3.90	10.6	0.305	5.7	82.2	fair
Dylan Cease	SP	Tor	166.3	2.38	1.06	2.79	24.6	0.260	5.3	99.4	fair
Eury Perez	SP	Mia	144.3	3.99	1.24	4.10	15.1	0.312	10.2	68.0	fair
Louis Varland	RP	Tor	76.0	1.30	1.00	2.30	24.3	0.236	3.8	85.8	fair

📰 MLB News — Top Fantasy Stories

🔒 Keepers — 2027 Slate

Peter's model (additive): rounds-saved (cost arbitrage spine) + current skill + career-grade pedigree + sample stability + Statcast over/under-performance trend, with age-decline (33+), closer/RP, and top-30 talent adjustments. Heavy on bargain-hunting.
Claude's model (multiplicative dynasty index): EFV(2027) = (3 + skill + upside) × age_mult × pos_mult; score = EFV − cost_replacement − mookie-lock. Compounds age curve and position scarcity.
Sorted by consensus rank (average of both models). MLB-inactive players surfaced in 🚑 Return Watch below.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict	Notes
1.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	21st	#1 (+24.5)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51	UFDA-G FV 55
2.5	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	22nd	#3 (+21.5)	#2 (+27.1)	S · $27
3.0	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	25th	#2 (+22.3)	#4 (+18.5)	S · $18	UFDA
4.5	Bryce Eldridge	1B · 20yo	25th	#4 (+16.2)	#5 (+14.4)	A · $14	UFDA FV 55
4.5	Zach Neto	SS · 25yo	10th	#6 (+14.9)	#3 (+22.0)	S · $22
5.5	Henry Bolte	RF · 21yo	25th	#5 (+14.9)	#6 (+14.4)	A · $14	UFDA FV 40
7.0	Dylan Cease	SP · 30yo	4th	#7 (+12.0)	#7 (+11.7)	A · $12
8.0	Jac Caglianone	RF · 22yo	21st	#8 (+10.0)	#8 (+6.8)	B · $7	UFDA-G FV 55

NEW UFDA cap: Peter 3/3 · Claude 3/3 · BOTH = top 8 in both models. Peter only = his model values cost surplus more; Claude only = mine values projection / position scarcity more.

Updated Fri Sep 18 · 11:08 AM ET

🌍 League-Wide Top Keepers

Top 10 keepers · all 12 teams · both models. Yours in green.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	Team	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict
2.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	MIZ	21st	#3 (+24.5)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51
3.0	Jordan Walker	RF · 24yo	GARR	25th	#2 (+25.0)	#4 (+29.9)	S · $30
3.5	Bryan Baker	RP · 31yo	DORN	25th	#4 (+24.1)	#3 (+38.7)	S · $39
6.0	Payton Tolle	SP · 22yo	FRST	25th	#1 (+25.4)	— (+21.2)	S · $21
6.5	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	MIZ	22nd	#8 (+21.5)	#5 (+27.1)	S · $27
6.5	Cam Schlittler	SP · 24yo	KRTZ	19th	— (+19.7)	#2 (+40.8)	S · $41
8.0	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	MIZ	25th	#5 (+22.3)	— (+18.5)	S · $18
8.5	Foster Griffin	SP · 30yo	GoOs	25th	#6 (+22.1)	— (+21.2)	S · $21
8.5	Cade Cavalli	SP · 26yo	FRAN	21st	— (+18.6)	#6 (+26.1)	S · $26
9.0	Logan Henderson	SP · 23yo	PEYT	25th	#7 (+21.9)	— (+17.1)	A · $17
9.0	Nolan McLean	SP · 23yo	DORN	20th	— (+17.8)	#7 (+24.0)	S · $24
9.5	Gavin Williams	SP · 26yo	THAR	11th	— (+13.9)	#8 (+23.6)	S · $24
10.0	Jose Soriano	SP · 27yo	BLOB	25th	#9 (+21.3)	— (+18.5)	S · $18
10.0	Junior Caminero	3B · 22yo	RAGE	5th	— (+12.3)	#9 (+23.3)	S · $23
10.5	Jake McCarthy	LF · 28yo	FRAN	25th	#10 (+21.0)	— (+19.8)	S · $20
10.5	Parker Messick	SP · 24yo	GARR	18th	— (+16.4)	#10 (+23.0)	S · $23

Updated Fri Sep 18 · 11:08 AM ET

🏚️ Keeper Cupboards

Every team's six best keepers · shade = dual-model consensus value. Cupboard score weights the top four heavily (the slots that get kept), keepers 5–8 taper. 100 = league's best cupboard.

Team	K1	K2	K3	K4	K5	K6	Cupboard
1MIZ	MisiorowskiR21	VarlandR22	VargasR25	EldridgeR25	NetoR10	BolteR25	100
2DORN	BakerR25	RiceR20	McLeanR20	PerdomoR21	BazzanaR25	LaraR25	82
3FRAN	McCarthyR25	CavalliR21	LatzR25	AntonacciR25	LoweR8	BurnsR5	71
4PEYT	HendersonR25	SanchezR9	YoungR25	WooR8	ClarkR22	MayR25	68
5KRTZ	SchlittlerR19	BengeR25	SanojaR25	StewartR10	McGonigleR17	MahleR23	65
6THAR	WilliamsR11	RasmussenR8	MarshR25	O'BrienR17	Jr.R16	KeaschallR21	61
7KNIG	AbreuR15	deGromR13	MartinezR25	JensenR20	RodriguezR25	ChapmanR11	56
8GoOs	GriffinR25	BradleyR25	GoodmanR21	BurlesonR9	WachaR25	MeidrothR25	55
9GARR	WalkerR25	MessickR18	GrayR7	CanzoneR25	BuschR11	SimpsonR9	51
10BLOB	SorianoR25	LopezR20	ScottR25	SuarezR12	LileR15	SaleR1	51
11RAGE ▼ thin	EwingR25	CamineroR5	JonesR25	BasalloR19	ImanagaR9	HerreraR20	47
12FRST ▼ thin	TolleR25	WheelerR8	MuncyR18	SkubalR1	RumfieldR25	RogersR9	45

The bottom two rows are your trade marks — thin cupboards pay up for keepable pieces.

data: snap 3h · BP 24d · PL 24d · HL 21d · PSS 0h · BR 18h · FG 2h · proj 24h · closer 0h · oyster 2h · AAA-sc 12h · cookie ok