Miz-waukee’s Best — The Brandon League

Last updated Sunday, September 06 · 01:05 PM ET

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Any player in the league universe · tap a result for the card.

☕ Morning Briefing

🏆 MIZ holds 1st at 104.5 roto points, 21.0 clear of second — a comfortable lead, though you've slipped 0.5 pts since last update. Keep an eye on Wins (dead level with GoOs, one swing costs you a roto point) and SB (just 2 behind THAR, worth a +1 roto point if you close it).

⚾ Solid day from the lineup: Kyle Schwarber (2-3, HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 2R) and Ryan Jeffers (1-4, HR, 3 RBI, R) each went deep, while Zach Neto reached base three times (3-5, R, RBI), Cole Carrigg added a multi-hit day with a stolen base (2-4, R, RBI, SB — chip away at that THAR gap), and Louis Varland locked down a save with a clean 1-inning appearance. Make sure Kyle Harrison is active in your lineup tonight.

🔭 Both stash-board prospects delivered: Jonathon Long (RI 87, FA) went 4-for-5 with 2 HR and 5 RBI at AAA vs. Norfolk, and Bryce Mayer (RI 91, FA) posted 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K for the win at AAA vs. Reno — both are free agents if you want to act. Also worth a flag: GoOs lost Ceddanne Rafaela (right quad strain, 10-day IL) from their active roster, which could soften their SB and OF production at a critical moment for the standings race.

📰 Rafael Devers has gone deep in each of the first five September games, accumulating 6+ HR and 7+ walks over a six-game stretch that puts him in Willie Mays/Barry Bonds company by that metric — relevant if you're tracking HR-race optics. Also notable from the transactions: Ricky Tiedemann has been recalled by Toronto (available FA) as the Blue Jays, now sitting in the AL's third Wild Card slot at 72-71, make a postseason push, and Jasson Domínguez is back in the Yankees lineup (available FA) after his Scranton stint — two high-upside names worth monitoring on the wire given your Wins vulnerability.

ELIGIBILITYK. Schwarber 1B 7/10

Your standing

1stof 12

104.5 roto pts +21.0 clear of 2nd

-0.5 pts vs last update

Top Gaps

W (6.5) SB (7.0)

categories below mid-pack

Score change since last update

W -0.5

🎯 Category Pressure

Category ranks vs. the league.

Rank →

Δ to #1

957

1042

🥇

279

303

🥇

RBI

895

929

🥇

131

140

142

198

+58

AVG

.254

.256

.258

+0.002

1204

1212

1353

+141

+12

+13

ERA

3.48

3.30

🥇

WHIP

1.18

1.12

🥇

📅 Yesterday's MIZ Box Scores (2026-09-05)

Loading box scores…

🏥 IL Rehab Tracker

IL players · rehab game logs.

Joe Ryan (SP) IL15 on rehab
AAA2026-09-01 · 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K, 0 BB

On the IL, no rehab games yet: Spencer Schwellenbach (IL60 · watch).

📊 League Activity (last 24h)

All adds, drops, and trades across the 12 teams.

Team	Move
Phil Swift's Flex Seal	+ Thomas Saggese \| − Zac Thornton

🏆 League Standings

Current roto points · 10,000-sim projected finish. FAAB = acquisition budget remaining.

100.0% to win the league · proj finish 1.0 · 103.0 roto pts

#	Team	Pts	FAAB	Win%	Proj Pts	Range	Proj Rk
1	MIZ Miz-waukee’s Best	104.5	$0	100.0%	103.0	100–105	1.0
2	FRAN Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	83.5	$59	0.0%	85.1	81–90	2.5
3	KRTZ Photogenic Nick Kurtz	80.0	$20	0.0%	83.2	78–88	3.0
4	PEYT Phil Swift's Flex Seal	79.0	$25	0.0%	82.0	77–87	3.3
5	GoOs I need Buck Showalter	69.5	$170	0.0%	70.2	65–75	5.1
6	BLOB Camp MVP	66.0	$168	0.0%	66.3	63–69	5.8
7	KNIG Team Knighton	63.5	$137	0.0%	60.3	56–64	7.1
8	THAR Phil Mickeltits	59.5	$176	0.0%	56.7	52–61	7.9
9	GARR The Boys of Summer	47.5	$155	0.0%	51.3	47–56	8.9
10	DORN Dorn and Associates LLC	46.0	$89	0.0%	45.3	42–49	10.1
11	FRST Worst2First	41.0	$154	0.0%	41.9	38–46	10.8
12	RAGE Ramirez Against the Machine	40.0	$163	0.0%	34.7	32–38	12.0

10,000 sims · fixed seed · noise CV talent 0.12 / idio 0.06 / team-cat 0.08 · assumes ATC rest-of-season rates

Your categories · projected roto points

R 12.0HR 12.0RBI 12.0SB 7.0AVG 9.8W 6.6SV 9.0K 10.6ERA 12.0WHIP 12.0

Winnable — push here: SB, AVG, W, SV.

🚨 Today's Streaming Board

158 of 200 GS · should be 177 · 19 behindBehind pace — stream aggressively

042 left · ~14.0/wk to cap · proj 178200

⏳ BP's post is late — Verdict pill is running on our score + Pitcher List for now (BP joins the top-2 once it posts).

Your starters + top FA streamers

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Kyle Harrison	@ CIN	DART	—	3.8	#9	Velo still down, HR-prone; risky weekend play.
Tyler Mahle	@ PHI	START	—	5.5	#14	On a roll; command slightly off peak.
Walbert Urena	@ PIT	START	—	4.5	#8	Quietly excellent; strong recent track record.
Peter Lambert	vs AZ	START	—	4.3	#7	Command intact; quality start upside.
Christian Scott	vs SF	DART	—	4.3	#13	LHB approach solid; RHB platoon split uncertain vs. weak lineup.
Bailey Ober	@ CWS	SIT	—	4.9	#23	87 mph velo alarming, but White Sox saves him.
Jackson Jobe	@ CLE	SIT	—	3.4	#19	Secondary stuff unresolved; tough LHB test ahead.
Cesar Perdomo	@ NYM	SIT	—	5.1	#27	First career start; thin arsenal, unplayable.
Andrew Alvarez	@ LAD	SIT	—	4.6	#26	Dodgers matchup kills upside entirely.
Tanner Gordon	vs STL	SIT⚠ opener	—	5.3	#30	Home pitcher at Coors; unplayable.
Tyler Phillips	vs CHC	SITleash⚠ opener	—	4.2	#25	Short leash, low ceiling, tough Cubs offense.

Openers filtered: Bryan Hudson

Your staff: 3.30 ERA / 1.12 WHIP · GS 158/200 — Behind pace — stream aggressively. Verdict = the best 2 of BP · our score · Pitcher List, averaged (low outlier dropped); before BP posts it's our score + PL. ⚠ = our matchup score dissented — eyeball that one. Tap a MIZ score for the reasoning.

Tomorrow · 2 of yours + top 3 FA · Mon 9/7 · BP not out yet, so pill = our score + Pitcher List

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Dylan Cease	@ ATH	AUTO START	—	6.4	#2	Elite ace, just run him.
Eury Pérez	vs NYM	DART	—	4.2	#7	Two rough starts but underlying stuff and command still intact.
Joey Cantillo	@ BAL	DART	—	4.8	#12	Command shaky lately; stuff and approach trending better.
Grayson Rodriguez	@ BOS	SIT	—	3.6	#16	Breaking ball issues persist; fastball/change only redeeming traits.
Robert Gasser	vs CHC	SIT	—	3.7	#17	Cutter promising; overall command insufficient.

Openers filtered: Jonah Tong

📼 Streamer Report Card

Does the Streaming Board actually work? Every pick it showed, frozen at pick time and graded off the real box score. Two scoreboards below: first our own calls — the Verdict ladder and MIZ (our matchup score, 0–10) — then the outside lists behind them, BP (RelieverRecon's daily BP Streamers post) and PL (Pitcher List's tier ranking). Grades are recomputed from raw lines on every build — the rubric can change, the history follows.

Last 30d · 347 starts graded over 29 days · GOOD+ 47% · BLOWUP 18% · agg ERA 4.40 · WHIP 1.34 · 4.5 K/start · 374 picks logged, 15 never started, 12 awaiting a box score — not graded

Grade mix · all 347 graded starts

GEM 65 GOOD 99 OK 120 BLOWUP 63

GEM6+ IP, ≤1 ER · or 6+ IP, 8+ K, ≤2 ERGOODquality start (6+ IP, ≤3 ER) · or 5+ IP, ≤2 EROKheld the line without earning GOODBLOWUP5+ ER · or under 4 IP with 4+ ERGOOD+ = GEM + GOOD. A pick whose starter never took the ball grades to nothing and leaves every rate below.

Cohort	n	GOOD+	BLOWUP	ERA
Q1 — Do our own calls work? · Verdict ladder + MIZ bands · live board rows only, nothing backfilled
Verdict · AUTO START	26	73%	15%	3.22
Verdict · START	47	57%	11%	3.95
Verdict · DART	91	42%	15%	4.82
Verdict · SIT	183	44%	22%	4.50
MIZ ≥ 5.0	117	62%	15%	3.72
MIZ 3.5–4.9	136	43%	20%	4.79
MIZ < 3.5	77	36%	21%	4.98
All live board picks	347	47%	18%	4.40
Q1 read — the ladder has not separated: GOOD+ runs 73% · 57% · 42% · 44% down the rungs, and MIZ sorts: GOOD+ falls 62% · 43% · 36% from the top band down.
Q2 — Which outside list earns the weight? · BP and PL graded on their own published lists · mostly rebuilt from git
PL · Auto Start	26	69%	19%	3.82
PL · Probably Start	41	59%	12%	3.90
PL · Questionable Start	99	47%	19%	4.67
PL · Do Not Start	156	44%	20%	4.39
BP · Auto	11	36%	9%	4.74
BP · Likely	31	45%	16%	4.33
All graded picks	347	47%	18%	4.40
Q2 read — against the 47% all-picks baseline, PL's top tiers clear it (69% · 59%) and BP's top tiers are too thin to call (36% · 45% on n=11 · n=31).

Rows are overlapping lenses on the same picks, not a partition — one start can be a PL Auto Start and a Verdict SIT at once, so they never sum to the headline; each group is read against its own baseline row.

⚠ Dissent check — the override is ahead so far — 71% GOOD+ on n=7. Splits are picks the board started over our MIZ sit-call (vs 47% for all live picks).

Calibration — do our numbers mean anything? · full season, 2026-06-29→2026-09-05 · 959 graded picks · MIZ on 419, BP on 230, Verdict on 440

The ladder above asks whether the tiers sort. This asks the harder question: is the number a probability — when the board says 7, do 70% of those starts come back GOOD+? Bins are equal-count and merge until every one clears n=15; the walk-forward rows are scored against a model that only ever saw earlier days.

Score bin	n	mean	GOOD+	95% CI
MIZ score → P(GOOD+) · our matchup score, 0–10 · live rows only · n=419
MIZ 0.5–3.3	95	2.6	40%	31%–50%
MIZ 3.4–4.0	81	3.7	44%	34%–55%
MIZ 4.1–4.8	84	4.4	50%	40%–60%
MIZ 4.9–5.5	75	5.2	55%	43%–65%
MIZ 5.6–8.9	84	6.4	62%	51%–72%
All MIZ-scored picks	419	—	50%	—
BP score → P(GOOD+) · RelieverRecon's published rating · includes git-backfilled rows · n=230
BP 4.6–6.6	48	6.1	35%	23%–50%
BP 6.7–7.3	44	7.0	52%	38%–66%
BP 7.4–7.7	47	7.5	45%	31%–59%
BP 7.8–8.4	47	8.1	47%	33%–61%
BP 8.5–10.0	44	9.1	43%	30%–58%
All BP-scored picks	230	—	44%	—
Verdict tier → P(GOOD+) · the consensus call itself · live rows only
AUTO START	30	—	70%	52%–83%
START	57	—	58%	45%–70%
DART	116	—	47%	39%–56%
SIT	237	—	46%	40%–52%

Out-of-sample	n	value	vs
Walk-forward probability · logistic on MIZ, refit daily on earlier days only · from 2026-08-05 · 31 days
Brier — our probability	355	0.246	lower is better
Brier — flat base rate to date	355	0.255	we win by 0.009
Brier — verdict-tier history	355	0.254	we win by 0.008
Log loss — our probability	355	0.685	lower is better
ECE — our probability	355	0.059	5 equal-count bins
ECE bins · predicted p vs what actually happened
said 32%–47%	72	39%	off by 4%
said 47%–51%	70	41%	off by 8%
said 51%–56%	71	41%	off by 13%
said 56%–60%	71	56%	off by 1%
said 60%–74%	71	61%	off by 4%
Verdict — usable with caveats: ECE 0.059 over n=355 out-of-sample picks (≤0.03 well calibrated · ≤0.07 usable with caveats); edges the flat base rate on Brier (0.246 vs 0.255, a thin margin; log-loss ~coin-flip).

🔥 Today's Hitter Streamers

Top 10 FA bats for today's slate · score = split vs SP hand (35%) + SP softness (35%) + bat quality (15%) + trailing 15 days (10%) + park (5%) · facing an elite arm fades the score hard (feast on weak pitchers).

#	Hitter	Matchup	Why	Legs	Score
1	AUTO STARTMickey GasperC · 14% own	@ BAL · Bradish RHP	szn .372 xwOBAL15: 1.456 OPS (48 PA)L14 contact +6.0 (.584 xwOBAcon, 27 BBE)usually bats 2nd (×1.10)beats 2 of 2 eligible startersBradish .319 allowed · avg SP0.973 OPS vs RHP (135 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	92
2	AUTO STARTBrady House3B · 1% own	@ LAD · Wrobleski LHP	szn .336 xwOBAL15: 0.850 OPS (44 PA)L14 contact +2.1 (.416 xwOBAcon, 30 BBE)usually bats 5thbeats 3 of 3 eligible startersWrobleski .331 allowed · soft SP0.961 OPS vs LHP (82 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	76
3	AUTO STARTNathaniel Lowe1B · 2% own	vs DET · Jobe RHP	szn .335 xwOBAL15: 0.497 OPS (53 PA)L14 contact +1.3 (.398 xwOBAcon, 33 BBE)usually bats 5thbeats 2 of 3 eligible startersJobe .360 allowed · soft SP0.833 OPS vs RHP (302 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	68
4	STARTAndrew Vaughn1B · 4% own	@ CIN · Singer RHP	szn .336 xwOBAL15: 0.947 OPS (38 PA)L14 contact -1.9 (.328 xwOBAcon, 25 BBE)usually bats 4th (×1.05)beats 2 of 4 eligible startersSinger .342 allowed · soft SP0.781 OPS vs RHP (162 AB)CIN plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	67
5	STARTTroy JohnstonRF · 4% own	vs STL · Leahy RHP	szn .329 xwOBAL15: 1.040 OPS (37 PA)L14 contact -1.2 (.344 xwOBAcon, 21 BBE)usually bats 7th (×0.95)fills OF needbeats 3 of 8 eligible startersLeahy .335 allowed · soft SP0.816 OPS vs RHP (273 AB)COL plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	64
6	CONSIDERAndres Chaparro1B · 0% own	@ LAD · Wrobleski LHP	szn .354 xwOBAL15: 0.826 OPS (39 PA)L14 contact -2.9 (.305 xwOBAcon, 26 BBE)usually bats 3rd (×1.07)beats 0 of 3 eligible startersWrobleski .331 allowed · soft SP0.803 OPS vs LHP (102 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	62
7	STARTJesus SanchezRF · 1% own	@ KC · Dobnak RHP	szn .326 xwOBAusually bats 4th (×1.05)fills OF needbeats 3 of 6 eligible startersDobnak .335 allowed · soft SP0.792 OPS vs RHP (233 AB)KC plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	62
8	STARTMichael ConfortoLF · 0% own	@ MIA · Phillips RHP	szn .333 xwOBAL15: 1.500 OPS (26 PA)L14 contact +6.0 (.595 xwOBAcon, 19 BBE)usually bats 8th (×0.93)fills OF needbeats 3 of 6 eligible startersPhillips .330 allowed · soft SP0.79 OPS vs RHP (214 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	62
9	DEPTHKyle Karros3B · 2% own	vs STL · Leahy RHP	szn .338 xwOBAbeats 0 of 3 eligible startersLeahy .335 allowed · soft SP0.768 OPS vs RHP (221 AB)COL plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	60
10	AUTO STARTMichael Massey2B · 1% own	vs TOR · Arrighetti RHP	szn .306 xwOBAL14 contact +3.4 (.446 xwOBAcon, 16 BBE)usually bats 6th (×0.98)beats 2 of 3 eligible startersArrighetti .346 allowed · soft SP0.729 OPS vs RHP (272 AB)KC plays hot	L15 bat SP L/R park	57

Tiers vs YOUR lineup tonight — median starter 59, worst Royce Lewis (7). AUTO START = beats the median eligible starter.

TBD starter = neutral SP + split legs until the probable posts (refresh upgrades it). Splits need 30+ AB vs that hand. IL bats are excluded; bats who rarely start against tonight's hand are dropped. Doubleheaders: legs average the ends he plays, and everyday bats get up to a ×1.50 volume boost. Lineup slot scales the score by expected PAs from the bat's usual spot (leadoff ×1.12 … 9-hole ×0.90, modal over the last ~10 played days) — his typical order, not today's card, since that posts after waivers run.

🎯 FA Hitters — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Kyle Schwarber

1Mickey GasperC · Bos · 13.7%HEATER

27-BBE trusted heat (0.584 xwOBAcon), 5 HR L14, projects more PA than ATC suggests

Heat 87 · 27 BBE · ATC 23 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.247 · L7 0.273 · 3 HR · sim +0.2 pts

2Michael Conforto

LF · ChC · 0.5% · HEATER

84 heat score, 0.595 xwOBAcon elite contact quality; 4 HR L14 with real production backing

Heat 84 · 19 BBE · ATC 44 PA · 2 HR · 0 SB · 0.220 · L7 0.455 · 2 HR · sim +0.2 pts

3Ty France

1B · SD · 15.3% · BEST VALUE

80 RoS PA, .381 L7 BA, wRC+ 109 projects AVG help at rank 3 with thin margin above

ATC 80 PA · 2 HR · 0 SB · 0.259 · L7 0.381 · 1 HR · sim +0.1 pts

4Xander Bogaerts

SS · SD · 18.5% · CATEGORY FIT

3 SB last 7 days directly attacks MIZ's only soft spot at rank 6 SB

ATC 80 PA · 2 HR · 2 SB · 0.260 · L7 0.273 · 0 HR · sim +0.2 pts

5Justin Foscue

2B · Tex · 0.2% · UPSIDE

26-BBE trusted heat, 3 HR L14, 2 HR L7; limited ATC PA undersells current role

Heat 77 · 26 BBE · ATC 25 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.223 · L7 0.357 · 2 HR · sim +0.2 pts

Passed on: Sean Murphy has 82-heat and strong L7 production but only 17 BBE keeps it just sub-threshold and 41 RoS PA limits ceiling versus Gasper and Conforto.

💪 Hitter List Rankings

PL Top 150 hitters · your bats + top FAs.

On Hitter List · 17 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Hitter	MLB	Pos	Chg	AVG	xwOBA	HR	SB	RoS	Chu’s Take
16	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	DH	+3	.240	.365	41	3	124
18	Randy Arozarena	SEA	OF	-	.271	.349	22	21	127
21	Miguel Vargas	CHW	1B/3B	+19	.251	.386	30	15	115	Miguel Vargas has returned to the levels we saw early this summer and that really revs my engine. He’s one of those players who has shown…
36	Yandy Díaz	TB	1B	+3	.304	.355	21	3	122
46	Zach Neto	LAA	SS	+11	.238	.305	23	19	111	Zach Neto has been a monster over the last nine games, with 17 hits, 18 combined runs and RBI (a seven RBI night helps), and seven extra-…
59	Jac Caglianone	KC	1B/OF	+13	.283	.357	23	6	107	Jac Caglianone still hits a lot of grounders, but not quite as many as before (the rolling 15-game rate is a hair below 50%) and the stri…
72	Ty France	SD	1B	+12	.292	.331	20	1	109
77	Royce Lewis	MIN	1B/2B/3B	-15	.236	.316	14	14	96	Royce Lewis is streaky. We just gotta deal with that.
85	Cole Carrigg	COL	SS/OF	-22	.269	.323	7	9	67	The strikeouts have creeped up on Cole Carrigg , up to 32% over his last 11 games (which is, conveniently, exactly 50 plate appearances).…
106	Luis Robert Jr.	NYM	OF	+UR	.221	.321	11	2	100
109	Mickey Gasper	BOS	C	+UR	.277	.372	8	0	104	Mickey Gasper — Fantastic mustache, first of all. Second of all, the batted ball data suggests what’s happening of late is very real, tho…
115	Kaelen Culpepper	MIN	SS	+UR	.307	.320	3	1	90	Kaelen Culpepper — Culpepper puts a lot of balls in play and it’s working out so far. The BABIP Gods can be cruel, though. The 55 point g…
119	Rafael Flores Jr.	PIT	C/1B	+UR	.223	.339	7	0	83
133	Connor Norby	COL	1B/2B/3B	+UR	.225	.301	6	8	91	Connor Norby still has huge contact issues but the guy can hit the ball hard in the air and plays for Colorado so stream away.
135	Henry Bolte	ATH	OF	+UR	.274	.311	8	15	93	Henry Bolte is leading off again and should get some games in Sacramento soon, if you need a streamer.
143	Alejandro Kirk	TOR	C	+UR	.272	.302	8	1	114
145	Tyler Stephenson	CIN	C	-33	.248	.335	15	0	94
146	Ryan Jeffers	MIN	C	-29	.271	.356	14	1	116
148	Andruw Monasterio	BOS	2B/SS	-26	.247	.299	6	4	89
149	Dylan Crews	WSH	OF	-35	.220	.307	10	9	83
150	Luis Rengifo	SD	2B/3B/OF	-24	.240	.304	4	6	—
TS	Bryce Eldridge	SF	1B	—	.262	.357	15	1	100	Bryce Eldridge (1B, SFG) — Power prospects can often take a while to really shine.
TS	Jordan Lawlar	Ari	3B/OF	—	.269	.308	4	4	91	Jordan Lawlar (3B/OF, ARI) — I do not love that he’s sat against two of the three righties the D-Backs have faced, nor the strikeouts. He…
TS	Pedro Ramirez	ChC	2B/3B	—	.269	.293	4	7	92	Pedro Ramirez (2B/3B, CHC) — Hitting well when he plays, which is not very often.
TS	Walker Jenkins	Min	OF	—	.130	.253	1	1	102	Walker Jenkins (OF, MIN) — Jenkins will get the call today after a white-hot month in the triple-A. He’s worth a scoop in most leagues, E…
UR	James Wood	Wsh	OF	—	.267	.417	30	18	126	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Ralphy Velazquez	Cle	1B	—	—	—	—	—	83	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.

🔥 Heat Board

Hottest ACTIVE free-agent bats by contact quality, 8/23–9/5 · Heat = percentile vs all MLB bats over the same window (xwOBAcon 30 · EV 20 · Brl 20 · HH 15 · K 10 · BB 5) · min 15 BBE to qualify (smaller samples live in the HM rail) · IL excluded.

Mickey Gasper

C · Bos · 13.7% own · xwOBAcon .584 · EV 90.6 · Brl 22.2% · 27 BBE

▲ .087 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.277	8	22	23	0
L14	.364	5	7	9	0

Elias Diaz

C · Tex · 0.1% own · xwOBAcon .449 · EV 94.4 · Brl 28.6% · 21 BBE

▲ .009 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.232	7	29	18	0
L14	.241	2	9	4	0

Michael Conforto

LF · ChC · 0.5% own · xwOBAcon .595 · EV 91.3 · Brl 15.8% · 19 BBE

▲ .195 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.240	14	38	31	1
L14	.435	4	8	6	0

Lars Nootbaar

LF · Ari · 2.7% own · xwOBAcon .415 · EV 93.2 · Brl 11.5% · 26 BBE

▲ .056 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.234	6	28	29	2
L14	.290	2	8	4	0

Sean Murphy

C · Atl · 1.1% own · xwOBAcon .542 · EV 90.5 · Brl 17.6% · 17 BBE

▲ .151 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.234	3	8	8	0
L14	.385	3	8	7	0

Amed Rosario

3B · NYY · 0.6% own · xwOBAcon .412 · EV 94.8 · Brl 10.0% · 20 BBE

▲ .070 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.234	10	31	26	2
L14	.304	0	3	3	1

Michael Massey

2B · KC · 0.9% own · xwOBAcon .446 · EV 92.9 · Brl 6.2% · 16 BBE

▲ .033 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.280	11	45	46	3
L14	.313	0	1	0	1

Leo Bernal

C · StL · 0.6% own · xwOBAcon .431 · EV 96.6 · Brl 6.2% · 16 BBE

▲ .000 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.350	1	4	4	0
L14	.350	1	4	4	0

Justin Foscue

2B · Tex · 0.2% own · xwOBAcon .430 · EV 92.2 · Brl 15.4% · 26 BBE

▲ .028 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.266	11	29	22	0
L14	.294	3	6	5	0

Colton Cowser

CF · Bal · 1.7% own · xwOBAcon .447 · EV 93.5 · Brl 8.0% · 25 BBE

▲ .025 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.217	13	37	38	8
L14	.242	2	4	3	0

Honorable mention · hottest L7 (8/30–9/5), not yet on the board · tiny samples — peek, don't trust

Alex Freeland

3B · LAD

.465 xwOBAcon

9 BBE · .111 L7

Mark Vientos

3B · NYM

.464 xwOBAcon

9 BBE · .400 L7

Ryan Vilade

RF · TB

.557 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .222 L7

Francisco Alvarez

C · NYM

.737 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .200 L7

Joc Pederson

DH · Tex

.499 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .286 L7

Austin Wells

C · NYY

.419 xwOBAcon

13 BBE · .313 L7

🎯 FA Pitchers — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Andres Munoz

1Andrew PainterSP · Phi · 15.9%HEATER

98/99 suppression on 31 BBE, 0.19 xwOBAcon — elite contact suppression dwarfs ugly ATC ERA projection

Supp 98 · 31 BBE · ATC 16.0 IP · 1 W · 13 K · 4.71 · 1.37 · sim -0.6 pts

2Christian Scott

SP · NYM · 12.6% · BEST VALUE

84/99 suppression trusted at 15 BBE, best ATC ERA/WHIP of SPs, 4 GS volume, ratio-safe

Supp 84 · 15 BBE · ATC 19.0 IP · 1 W · 19 K · 4.04 · 1.24 · PL #13 · sim -0.6 pts

3Juan Morillo

RP · Ari · 3.4% · CATEGORY FIT

Confirmed closer role, 72/99 suppression at 15 BBE threshold, best ratio safety among saves-eligible FAs

Supp 72 · 15 BBE · ATC 7.0 IP · 1 W · 7 K · 3.83 · 1.36 · 1 SV · Closer · sim -0.1 pts

4Jacob Webb

RP · ChC · 5.5% · CATEGORY FIT

Confirmed closer role, roto sim neutral (-0.0), saves needed; suppression is bad but role is real

Supp 15 · 9 BBE · ATC 8.0 IP · 1 W · 8 K · 4.06 · 1.27 · 2 SV · Closer · sim -0.0 pts

5Merrill Kelly

SP · Ari · 20.4% · FLOOR

Most RoS IP/GS of any SP here, 54 BBE suppression sample trusted, reliable volume behind pace

Supp 78 · 54 BBE · ATC 21.0 IP · 1 W · 17 K · 4.60 · 1.36 · sim -0.6 pts

Passed on: Andrew Kittredge has a confirmed closer role but 10/99 suppression on 17 BBE — hard contact profile (92.2 EV) threatens ERA/WHIP supremacy in two categories MIZ can't afford to bleed.

⚾ Pitcher List Rankings

PL Top 100 SP · your arms + top FAs.

On Pitcher List · 6 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Pitcher	MLB	Chg	ERA	xERA	K/9	RoS	Pollack’s Take
1	Jacob Misiorowski	MIL	-	1.97	2.08	13.2	3.40	Like a base set Charizard, Misiorowski’s not gonna stop being dope.
9	Blake Snell	LAD	+7	1.97	2.11	12.1	3.31	#HotSnellSummer is in full swing.
10	Dylan Cease	TOR	-1	2.25	2.73	12.7	3.45	Like a perfect burger without the condiments to hit all your macros, Cease gives you everything except for a stable WHIP due to his infla…
20	Kyle Harrison	MIL	+8	3.46	3.52	10.9	4.19	With a dominant outing, he muted our concerns, but Harrison’s still displaying decreased velocity and not commanding as well as he did in…
22	Eury Pérez	MIA	-4	3.72	4.04	9.6	3.91	Pérez has the stuff to be an ace, but there’s polishing to do in the command and game plan departments to unlock his full potential.
30	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	-4	3.54	3.65	6.5	4.17	Baseball’s premier innings eater hasn’t ruined his appetite.
38	Jacob Lopez	ATH	+6	4.71	3.40	8.8	4.55	It’s the 2025 hot streak all over again. Enjoy the ride, ya’ll!
39	Dustin May	MIL	-	4.69	4.30	8.6	4.18	May got Singled Out in a disastrous performance, but his stuff is still dope, and his new situation is ideal. Higher win chance, great de…
40	Walbert Ureña	LAA	-	2.85	3.40	8.8	4.49	Armed with upper-90s heaters and one of the best changeups in baseball, Ureña has hit few speed bumps. If that developing sweeper becomes…
43	Andrew Painter	PHI	+UR	5.55	4.33	7.8	4.71	From off The List to inside the Top 50, Painter has stolen our hearts with an improved heater (97+ mph with 17-18″ iVB) and emphasis on r…
45	Peter Lambert	HOU	-4	3.66	3.60	8.9	4.61	Lambert’s stumble last time was a product of being Singled Out . He’s been reliable all year, but we should be recognizing that Holly is …
46	Jared Jones	PIT	-8	4.46	3.63	10.5	3.97	The stuff is top-tier, but he’s still shaking off the Tommy John surgery rust with his command and the tight leash the Pirates have on hi…
54	Joey Cantillo	CLE	-8	3.81	4.04	9.6	4.05	Efficiency is a problem, but Cantillo is doing everything we want. More curveballs, faster fastballs, and supportive cutters. Throw more …
56	Shane Bieber	TOR	+14	4.37	5.95	7.1	4.05	Bieber is back in business. His heater looked awesome in The Trop, and his offspeed pitches are being the CSW monsters they need to be to…
57	Tyler Mahle	ATL	-	4.25	4.18	8.7	4.05	Mahle’s command and velocity have been stellar since returning from the IL in late June. He’s got an even better situation pitching in At…
58	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	-	3.53	3.76	5.9	4.67	Despite what the line suggests, Pfaadt’s last start wasn’t an end to his Vargas Rule . It was a textbook Careful, Icarus with a three-run…

🔒 Closer Chart

Save targets · roles + regression flags.

BLUEEntrenched closer (highest leverage)GREENNext man up / committee pieceYELLOWSetup, 8th-inning leverageORANGESpeculative / lower priorityMAGENTAHigh-upside future / multi-inning

	Pitcher	Tm	Role	SV	SVHD	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K/9	Rtg / Own
Yours on the chart
—	Andrés Muñoz	Seattle Mariners	CL	24	24	51.3	4.21	1.17	3.20 ↓	14.4	5.0 · —
—	Louis Varland	Toronto Blue Jays	CL	33	38	70.7	1.15	0.98	2.19 ↑	11.1	5.0 · —
Top 5 FA closers (by team rating)
—	Andrew Kittredge	Baltimore Orioles	CL	9	18	44.0	3.27	1.39	4.04	7.6	4.0 · 4%
—	Jacob Webb	Chicago Cubs	CL	9	17	60.0	3.15	1.23	4.06	9.8	4.0 · 5%
—	Dylan Smith	San Francisco Giants	CL	4	11	31.7	3.13	1.33	3.68	11.7	4.0 · 1%
—	Steven Cruz HLR	Kansas City Royals	CL	6	11	52.7	4.27	1.23	4.09	9.7	3.5 · 1%
	Juan Morillo	Arizona Diamondbacks	CL	3	20	56.3	2.08	1.05	2.46	10.4	3.0 · 3%

ERA cell: green <3.00 · red >4.50. xERA arrow: ↓ ERA likely to fall (buy) · ↑ ERA likely to rise (sell). Triggers when |xERA−ERA| ≥ 1.00.

✂️ Cut List

Drop priority · value, form, pedigree, role.

47	Royce Lewis 3B · Min low TV (17) sim cost ~0	TV 17 Rd 13
19	Kyle Harrison SP · Mil mid TV (59); cold last 7d; UFDA — easy to drop; BUT top-tier keeper sim cost ~0	TV 59 UFDA
11	Sandy Alcantara SP · Mia BUT solid keeper sim cost ~0	TV 72 Rd 14
11	Ryan Jeffers C · Min mid TV (36); hot — soft cut signal; BUT top-tier keeper; BUT young breakout signal sim cost ~0	TV 36 UFDA
8	Blake Snell SP · LAD BUT strong RoS (3.31 ERA) sim cost ~0	TV 80 Rd 8

Higher score = drop sooner — top 5 by score, and only 8+ reaches the board, so the number has no ceiling and is only comparable within this list. The sim line is a roto-sim marginal (cut vs. keep on one shared set of draws), not a measured cost. Pedigree + named closers shielded.

🌱 Stash List

PL's top prospects · grab them cheap.

Hitters

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 23: Top 10 Hitting Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + PSS + PFV + age + 40-man + path.

21 available — 1 yours

R. Velazquez YOURS

1B/C · CLE · AA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

28·2·.290

H. Mendez

OF · MIN · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

12·4·.283

J. Tibbs III

OF · LAD · AAA · 23 · knocking on the door

PSS

PFV

ETA

days

Szn

28·9·.294

S. Thompson

OF · COL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

12·18·.303

A. Miller

SS · PHI · AAA · 22 · knocking on the door

PSS

—

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

0·0·.500

C. Cannarella

OF · MIA · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

15·21·.338

J. Long

1B · CHC · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

15·3·.281

M. Anderson

2B · DET · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

16·5·.303

S. Walcott

3B/SS · TEX · AA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

8·9·.318

B. Davidson

OF · SFG · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

September

Szn

28·19·.282

J. Melton

OF · TB · AAA · 25 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

8·27·.273

M. Arroyo

SS · SEA · AAA · 21 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

18·17·.283

S. King

SS/2B/3B · WSN · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

19·14·.313

C. Ingle

C · CLE · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

19·2·.286

R. Ward

LF · LAD · AAA · 28 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

20·7·.246

J. Made

SS · MIL · AA · 19 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

13·36·.266

K. Alderman

OF · MIA · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

18·10·.256

Z. Hope

OF · DET · AA · 21 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

27·24·.283

R. Clifford

1B · NYM · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

16·8·.174

P. Harber

3B · SFG · AAA · 24 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

'27

Szn

17·4·.273

D. Crisantes

2B/3B · ARI · AAA · 21 · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

blocked

Szn

9·0·.289

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

Pitchers

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 24: Top 10 Pitching Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + L3 quality + FV + age + 40-man + path.

27 available

T. Johnson

SP · TBR · AAA · 24 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

84K·3.03

B. Mautz

SP · STL · AAA · 24 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

100K·4.28

L. Perales

SP · WSN · AAA · 23 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

102K·4.17

H. Smith

SP · CHW · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

August 1st

Szn

106K·3.66

M. Ullola

SP · HOU · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

99K·4.23

C. Seymour

SP · SFG · AAA · 27 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

87K·3.94

K. Curtis

SP · PIT · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

115K·4.53

R. Snelling

SP · MIA · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

46K·2.38

J. Tong

SP · NYM · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

133K·4.46

D. Sandlin

SP · CHW · AAA · 25 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

99K·3.35

O. Murphy

SP · ATL · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

122K·3.74

G. Wood

SP · PHI · AA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

'26

Szn

134K·4.40

J. Wenninger

SP · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

115K·4.24

M. Bratt

SP · ARI · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

82K·3.92

M. Forret

SP · BAL · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

125K·3.89

T. Bremner

SP · LAA · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

92K·4.08

A. Kelly

SP · PIT · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

76K·4.33

R. Sloan

SP · SEA · AA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

124K·3.70

B. Garrett

SP · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

June 1st

Szn

110K·3.94

T. McDougal

SP · CHW · AAA · 23 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

49K·4.53

J. Ritchie

SP · ATL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

118K·3.88

D. Davalillo

SP · TEX · AAA · 24 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

94K·5.15

C. Dana

SP · LAA · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

80K·5.53

B. Hopkins

SP · TBR · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

118K·5.28

C. Crow

SP · MIL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

101K·3.74

T. Gibson

SP · BAL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

98K·4.98

L. Braun

SP · ATL · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

104K·3.64

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

🔭 14 not a 2026 factor — Bryce Mayer · Jamie Arnold · Anthony Eyanson · Liam Doyle · Jackson Ferris · Tyson Hardin · Jackson Wolf · Jaxon Wiggins · Jurrangelo Cijntje · Daniel Eagen · Christian Zazueta · Joseph Dzierwa · Karson Milbrandt · Jonathan Santucci

💼 Trades

Buy-low targets · league trade history.

Top Buy-Lows

Rebound candidates · suggested offers.

Hitters

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Juan Soto RF · NYM · GARR · jregarris +1.2σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.274 / xBA 0.293 · xwOBA 0.416	100%	158 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Kyle Schwarber DH · comparable value (TV 100 vs target 100)
📈 BUY-LOW	Heriberto Hernandez LF · Mia · FRAN · francisw789 +1.3σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.227 / xBA 0.246 · xwOBA 0.353	11%	100 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 35 vs target 33)
📈 BUY-LOW	JJ Bleday CF · Cin · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.2σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.221 / xBA 0.244 · xwOBA 0.349	23%	100 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Henry Bolte RF + Royce Lewis 3B · two-piece package (TV 22 vs target 27)
↑ mild buy	Taylor Ward LF · Sea · GoOs · My Best Guys +0.7σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.224 / xBA 0.241 · xwOBA 0.333	58%	119 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Kyle Harrison SP · comparable value (TV 59 vs target 60)
↑ mild buy	Dominic Canzone RF · Sea · GARR · jregarris +0.7σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.254 / xBA 0.269 · xwOBA 0.356	12%	114 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 35 vs target 34)
↑ mild buy	Kyle Stowers LF · Mia · KNIG · TKHOO +0.6σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.250 / xBA 0.234 · xwOBA 0.335	28%	111 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Henry Bolte RF + Royce Lewis 3B + +$3 FAAB · two-piece package (TV 22 vs target 28)
↑ mild buy	Jarren Duran LF · Bos · RAGE · glhoward40 +0.8σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.203 / xBA 0.234 · xwOBA 0.296	67%	100 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Kyle Harrison SP · comparable value (TV 59 vs target 57)
↑ mild buy	Ronald Acuna Jr. RF · Atl · GoOs · My Best Guys +0.8σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.251 / xBA 0.257 · xwOBA 0.362	98%	129 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Blake Snell SP · comparable value (TV 80 vs target 86)
📈 BUY-LOW	Mike Trout OF · LAA · KNIG · TKHOO +1.3σ buy-low · OF — fits a need · BA 0.241 / xBA 0.253 · xwOBA 0.376	91%	126 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Sandy Alcantara SP · comparable value (TV 72 vs target 76)
↑ mild buy	Heliot Ramos LF · NYY · DORN · Lambertmt48 +0.6σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.241 / xBA 0.255 · xwOBA 0.326	10%	104 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Royce Lewis 3B · comparable value (TV 17 vs target 17)

Pitchers

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Kodai Senga SP · NYM · KRTZ · FratSkins +1.2σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 7.23 vs xERA 5.02	10%	3.88 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Ralphy Velazquez 1B · comparable value (TV 2 vs target 4)
📈 BUY-LOW	Kade Anderson SP · Sea · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.5σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 5.40 vs xERA 3.15	19%	4.61 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Henry Bolte RF + Royce Lewis 3B + +$4 FAAB · two-piece package (TV 22 vs target 29)
↑ mild buy	Freddy Peralta SP · TB · KNIG · TKHOO +0.7σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.96 vs xERA 3.90	73%	4.03 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Kyle Harrison SP · comparable value (TV 59 vs target 58)
↑ mild buy	Bryce Miller SP · Sea · BLOB · crenshawh19 +0.5σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.01 vs xERA 3.32	30%	4.15 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 35 vs target 38)

League History

Completed trades · frozen grade at the deal + live grade now.

Side	Sent	At deal	Now	Trend
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Andy Pages	A- +7	A+ +45	▲ up
Camp MVP	Pete Crow-Armstrong	C -7	F -45	▼ down
Team Knighton ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Team Knighton	Matthew Boyd	F -22	F -22
Camp MVP	Kenley Jansen	A+ +22	A+ +22
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Worst2First 2026-08-10
Miz-waukee’s Best	Charlie Condon, Payton Tolle	A+ +50	A+ +33	▼ down
Worst2First	Dylan Cease	F -50	F -33	▲ up
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Dorn and Associates LLC 2026-08-05
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Travis Bazzana, George Lombard Jr., Nolan McLean	A+ +144	A+ +105	▼ down
Dorn and Associates LLC	Jackson Chourio, Jhoan Duran, Brice Turang, David Bednar	F -144	F -105	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-07-31
Miz-waukee’s Best	Samuel Basallo, Kade Anderson	A- +8	A+ +20	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine	Blake Snell	C -8	F -20	▼ down
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Team Knighton 2026-07-23
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Jo Adell, Jacob deGrom	F -49	F -63	▼ down
Team Knighton	Trea Turner	A+ +49	A+ +63	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine ⇄ Miz-waukee’s Best 2026-07-19
Ramirez Against the Machine	Sandy Alcantara	F -42	F -68	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best	Josh Jung	A+ +42	A+ +68	▲ up
I need Buck Showalter ⇄ Hit the Damn Ball You Bums 2026-06-19
I need Buck Showalter	Nasim Nunez	A+ +28	A+ +26
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Justin Wrobleski	F -28	F -26
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ The Boys of Summer 2026-06-12
Miz-waukee’s Best	Chandler Simpson	A +10	A- +7	▼ down
The Boys of Summer	$30 FAAB	D -10	C -7	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-05-01
Miz-waukee’s Best	Kenley Jansen	—	A- +6
Camp MVP	$30 FAAB	A- +3	C -6	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-04-22
Miz-waukee’s Best	Nathan Eovaldi, $70 FAAB	—	F -41
Ramirez Against the Machine	Jac Caglianone	A+ +60	A+ +41	▼ down

🔻 Sell-High — My Roster

Surface line outrunning the underlying skill — trade-value peaks. σ = his surface-stat z-score minus his Statcast-skill z-score, both against the league reference for his side — bigger σ = further ahead of the skill. Pair with Buy-Low Targets.

Verdict	Player	Own	Surface vs expected	Contact	2027 keeper
↓ SHOP	Yandy Diaz 1B · TB 0.64σ sell-high · 1B · BA 0.304 / xBA 0.287 · xwOBA 0.355 — test the market, don't force it	93%	BA 0.304 / xBA 0.287 +.017 wOBA 0.365 / xwOBA 0.355 +.010	HH 48.3% · Brl/PA 5.4%	7th · +1 rd vs mkt
↓ SHOP	Henry Bolte RF · Oak 0.63σ sell-high · RF · BA 0.274 / xBA 0.245 · xwOBA 0.311 — test the market, don't force it	5%	BA 0.274 / xBA 0.245 +.029 wOBA 0.332 / xwOBA 0.311 +.021	HH 47.9% · Brl/PA 4.4%	25th · +2 rds vs mkt
HOLD — KEEPER PRICE	Louis Varland RP · Tor 0.46σ sell-high · RP · ERA 1.15 vs xERA 2.19 — only move for keeper-grade return	87%	ERA 1.15 / xERA 2.19 -1.04	Brl 4.1% allowed	22nd · +16 rds vs mkt

👥 Your Roster

Your roster · news + buy/sell signals.

News (last 24h)

Player news · last 24h.

Cole Carrigg Rockies use 6-run 5th inning to beat Cardinals 10-7
Sun 09-06 03:25 AM
— Cole Carrigg had two hits, including a leadoff single to spark a six-run fifth inning, and the Colorado Rockies beat the St. Louis Cardinals 10-7 on Saturday night.
Ryan Jeffers Ryan Jeffers hits a three-run home run to help Minnesota Twins to a 6-4 win over Chicago White Sox
Sun 09-06 02:07 AM
— Ryan Jeffers hit a go-ahead, three-run home run in the fifth inning and Taj Bradley settled down after a rough start to lead the Minnesota Twins to a 6-4 win over the Chicago White Sox on Saturday night.
Kyle Schwarber Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Philkies: Game Highlight
Sun 09-06 12:58 AM
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Philkies: Game Highlight
Kyle Schwarber Wheeler fans 9 in 6 sharp innings, Schwarber hits 41st homer to lift Phillies past Braves 4-2
Sun 09-06 12:38 AM
— Zack Wheeler struck out nine in six sharp innings, Kyle Schwarber hit his MLB-leading 41st home run and the Philadelphia Phillies pulled within four games of the first-place Braves in the NL East with a 4-2 victory over Atlanta on Saturday night.
Kyle Schwarber Crushes 41st homer
Sun 09-06 12:00 AM
Schwarber went 2-for-3 with two walks, a home run, two runs scored and two RBI in Saturday's 4-2 win over Atlanta.
Joe Ryan Should return from IL this week
Sun 09-06 12:00 AM
Manager Derek Shelton said that Ryan (glute) checked out fine after completing a bullpen session Saturday and is likely to return from the 15-day injured list to make his next start with the Twins, Audra Martin of Twins.tv reports.
Jac Caglianone Recovering from Grade 1 elbow strain
Sun 09-06 12:00 AM
Royals manager Matt Quatraro said that Caglianone is out of the lineup for Sunday's game against the Blue Jays due to a Grade 1 flexor strain and is considered day-to-day, Joel Penfield of KCSN.com reports.
Jac Caglianone Withheld from starting nine Sunday
Sun 09-06 12:00 AM
Caglianone (elbow) is out of the lineup for Sunday's game against the Blue Jays.

Leverage Buys/Sells

Buy/sell windows · surface vs. underlying.

Hitters

Player	Pos	MLB	BA	xBA	wOBA	xwOBA	Brl%	Own%	Signal
James Wood	LF	Wsh	0.267	0.275	0.394	0.417	100.0	99.0	📈 BUY-LOW
Kyle Schwarber	DH	Phi	0.240	0.239	0.374	0.365	98.0	99.5	📈 BUY-LOW
Miguel Vargas	3B	ChW	0.251	0.269	0.367	0.386	91.0	95.1	📈 BUY-LOW
Bryce Eldridge	1B	SF	0.262	0.257	0.355	0.357	76.0	10.8	↑ mild buy
Zach Neto	SS	LAA	0.238	0.210	0.327	0.305	75.0	60.7	fair
Jac Caglianone DTD	RF	KC	0.283	0.281	0.356	0.357	90.0	58.0	fair
Randy Arozarena	LF	Sea	0.271	0.259	0.368	0.349	52.0	94.0	fair
Cole Carrigg	CF	Col	0.269	0.256	0.346	0.323	—	12.7	fair
Ryan Jeffers	C	Min	0.271	0.253	0.378	0.356	73.0	41.9	fair
Henry Bolte	RF	Oak	0.274	0.245	0.332	0.311	46.0	4.8	↓ mild fade
Yandy Diaz	1B	TB	0.304	0.287	0.365	0.355	47.0	92.7	↓ mild fade
Kaelen Culpepper	SS	Min	0.307	0.264	0.361	0.320	—	6.7	fair
Royce Lewis	3B	Min	0.236	0.242	0.310	0.316	73.0	14.6	fair
Walker Jenkins	CF	Min	0.130	0.139	0.275	0.253	—	6.7	—
Jordan Lawlar	3B	Ari	0.269	0.248	0.346	0.308	—	2.7	fair
Ralphy Velazquez	1B	Cle	—	—	—	—	—	0.7	—
Pedro Ramirez	3B	ChC	0.269	0.252	0.323	0.293	—	3.4	fair

Pitchers

Pitcher	Pos	MLB	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K-BB%	xwOBA-a	Brl%-a	Own%	Signal
Andres Munoz	RP	Sea	51.3	4.21	1.17	3.20	29.0	0.278	9.0	79.6	↑ mild buy
Blake Snell	SP	LAD	32.0	1.97	1.09	2.11	22.0	0.226	1.4	89.9	↑ mild buy
Joe Ryan IL15	SP	Min	125.7	4.08	1.15	3.50	21.2	0.290	10.5	89.3	fair
Jacob Misiorowski	SP	Mil	155.0	1.97	0.79	2.08	31.8	0.224	3.8	99.5	fair
Sandy Alcantara	SP	Mia	195.7	3.54	1.19	3.65	11.3	0.296	5.1	89.0	fair
Kyle Harrison	SP	Mil	109.3	3.46	1.23	3.52	21.6	0.291	7.7	72.1	fair
Dylan Cease	SP	Tor	156.3	2.25	1.04	2.73	25.1	0.257	5.1	99.2	fair
Eury Perez	SP	Mia	135.3	3.72	1.18	4.04	15.5	0.310	10.2	74.6	fair
Louis Varland	RP	Tor	70.7	1.15	0.98	2.19	24.7	0.230	4.1	86.6	↓ mild fade

📰 MLB News — Top Fantasy Stories

🔒 Keepers — 2027 Slate

Peter's model (additive): rounds-saved (cost arbitrage spine) + current skill + career-grade pedigree + sample stability + Statcast over/under-performance trend, with age-decline (33+), closer/RP, and top-30 talent adjustments. Heavy on bargain-hunting.
Claude's model (multiplicative dynasty index): EFV(2027) = (3 + skill + upside) × age_mult × pos_mult; score = EFV − cost_replacement − mookie-lock. Compounds age curve and position scarcity.
Sorted by consensus rank (average of both models). MLB-inactive players surfaced in 🚑 Return Watch below.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict	Notes
1.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	21st	#1 (+24.4)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51	UFDA-G FV 55
2.5	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	25th	#2 (+21.7)	#3 (+17.1)	A · $17	UFDA
2.5	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	22nd	#3 (+21.5)	#2 (+27.1)	S · $27
4.5	Bryce Eldridge	1B · 20yo	25th	#4 (+16.1)	#5 (+14.4)	A · $14	UFDA FV 55
5.0	Zach Neto	SS · 25yo	10th	#6 (+13.6)	#4 (+16.1)	A · $16
5.5	Henry Bolte	RF · 21yo	25th	#5 (+14.7)	#6 (+13.8)	A · $14	UFDA FV 40
7.0	Dylan Cease	SP · 30yo	4th	#7 (+12.0)	#7 (+11.7)	A · $12
8.5	Jac Caglianone	RF · 22yo	21st	#8 (+11.6)	— (+8.0)	B · $8	UFDA-G FV 55
8.5	Eury Perez	SP · 23yo	20th	— (+10.5)	#8 (+8.5)	B · $8	UFDA-G

NEW UFDA cap: Peter 3/3 · Claude 3/3 · BOTH = top 8 in both models. Peter only = his model values cost surplus more; Claude only = mine values projection / position scarcity more.

🚑 Return watch — would be keeper-eligible if they get MLB action this year. Rank shown is hypothetical (where they'd slot if eligible).

Player	Pos · Age	Cost	Peter (if elig.)	Claude (if elig.)
Ralphy Velazquez	1B · 19yo	25th	#18 (-2.0)	#13 (+1.4)

Updated Sun Sep 6 · 1:05 PM ET

🌍 League-Wide Top Keepers

Top 10 keepers · all 12 teams · both models. Yours in green.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	Team	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict
2.5	Andy Pages	CF · 25yo	BLOB	20th	#3 (+25.0)	#2 (+41.5)	S · $41
3.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	MIZ	21st	#5 (+24.4)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51
3.5	Jesus Luzardo	SP · 28yo	KNIG	21st	#1 (+27.8)	#6 (+33.4)	S · $33
3.5	Jordan Walker	RF · 24yo	GARR	25th	#2 (+27.3)	#5 (+38.7)	S · $39
4.0	Bryan Baker	RP · 31yo	DORN	25th	#4 (+24.9)	#4 (+38.7)	S · $39
6.0	Cam Schlittler	SP · 24yo	KRTZ	19th	#9 (+19.5)	#3 (+40.8)	S · $41
8.0	Ben Rice	1B · 27yo	DORN	20th	#6 (+23.3)	#10 (+24.0)	S · $24
8.0	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	MIZ	22nd	#8 (+21.5)	#8 (+27.1)	S · $27
9.0	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	MIZ	25th	#7 (+21.7)	— (+17.1)	A · $17
9.0	Riley O'Brien	RP · 31yo	THAR	17th	— (+13.8)	#7 (+30.6)	S · $31
10.0	Drew Rasmussen	SP · 30yo	THAR	8th	— (+13.8)	#9 (+26.0)	S · $26
10.5	Jacob Latz	RP · 30yo	FRAN	25th	#10 (+19.0)	— (+17.1)	A · $17

Updated Sun Sep 6 · 1:05 PM ET

🏚️ Keeper Cupboards

Every team's six best keepers · shade = dual-model consensus value. Cupboard score weights the top four heavily (the slots that get kept), keepers 5–8 taper. 100 = league's best cupboard.

Team	K1	K2	K3	K4	K5	K6	Cupboard
1MIZ	MisiorowskiR21	VargasR25	VarlandR22	EldridgeR25	NetoR10	BolteR25	100
2DORN	BakerR25	RiceR20	McLeanR20	BazzanaR25	LaraR25	PerdomoR21	87
3BLOB	PagesR20	LopezR20	SorianoR25	ScottR25	TaylorR25	LileR15	78
4GARR	WalkerR25	HancockR25	MessickR18	GrayR7	CanzoneR25	DinglerR22	62
5KNIG	LuzardoR21	AbreuR15	JensenR20	deGromR13	MartinezR25	SuzukiR4	62
6KRTZ	SchlittlerR19	BengeR25	SanojaR25	StewartR10	McGonigleR17	BurkeR25	62
7THAR	O'BrienR17	RasmussenR8	MarshR25	WilliamsR11	KeaschallR21	Jr.R16	61
8GoOs	GriffinR25	GoodmanR21	BradleyR25	BurlesonR9	ReynoldsR10	GomezR25	58
9FRAN	LatzR25	CavalliR21	AntonacciR25	McCarthyR25	BurnsR5	BradishR21	56
10PEYT	HendersonR25	SanchezR9	SaggeseR25	WooR8	WetherholtR13	MayoR17	55
11RAGE ▼ thin	EwingR25	CamineroR5	HerreraR20	BasalloR19	JonesR25	EovaldiR6	50
12FRST ▼ thin	TolleR25	WheelerR8	RouppR25	MuncyR18	SkubalR1	RumfieldR25	38

The bottom two rows are your trade marks — thin cupboards pay up for keepable pieces.

data: snap 5h · BP 12d · PL 12d · HL 9d · PSS 9h · BR 0h · FG 3h · proj 3h · closer 0h · oyster 3h · AAA-sc 14h · cookie ok