Miz-waukee’s Best — The Brandon LeagueAny player in the league universe · tap a result for the card.
Category ranks vs. the league.
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IL players · rehab game logs.
On the IL, no rehab games yet: Spencer Schwellenbach (IL60 · watch).
All adds, drops, and trades across the 12 teams.
| Team | Move |
|---|---|
| Phil Swift's Flex Seal | + Thomas Saggese | − Zac Thornton |
Current roto points · 10,000-sim projected finish. FAAB = acquisition budget remaining.
100.0% to win the league · proj finish 1.0 · 103.0 roto pts
| # | Team | Pts | FAAB | Win% | Proj Pts | Range | Proj Rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIZ | 104.5 | $0 | 100.0% | 103.0 | 100–105 | 1.0 |
| 2 | FRAN | 83.5 | $59 | 0.0% | 85.1 | 81–90 | 2.5 |
| 3 | KRTZ | 80.0 | $20 | 0.0% | 83.2 | 78–88 | 3.0 |
| 4 | PEYT | 79.0 | $25 | 0.0% | 82.0 | 77–87 | 3.3 |
| 5 | GoOs | 69.5 | $170 | 0.0% | 70.2 | 65–75 | 5.1 |
| 6 | BLOB | 66.0 | $168 | 0.0% | 66.3 | 63–69 | 5.8 |
| 7 | KNIG | 63.5 | $137 | 0.0% | 60.3 | 56–64 | 7.1 |
| 8 | THAR | 59.5 | $176 | 0.0% | 56.7 | 52–61 | 7.9 |
| 9 | GARR | 47.5 | $155 | 0.0% | 51.3 | 47–56 | 8.9 |
| 10 | DORN | 46.0 | $89 | 0.0% | 45.3 | 42–49 | 10.1 |
| 11 | FRST | 41.0 | $154 | 0.0% | 41.9 | 38–46 | 10.8 |
| 12 | RAGE | 40.0 | $163 | 0.0% | 34.7 | 32–38 | 12.0 |
10,000 sims · fixed seed · noise CV talent 0.12 / idio 0.06 / team-cat 0.08 · assumes ATC rest-of-season rates
Winnable — push here: SB, AVG, W, SV.
⏳ BP's post is late — Verdict pill is running on our score + Pitcher List for now (BP joins the top-2 once it posts).
Openers filtered: Bryan Hudson
Your staff: 3.30 ERA / 1.12 WHIP · GS 158/200 — Behind pace — stream aggressively. Verdict = the best 2 of BP · our score · Pitcher List, averaged (low outlier dropped); before BP posts it's our score + PL. ⚠ = our matchup score dissented — eyeball that one. Tap a MIZ score for the reasoning.
Openers filtered: Jonah Tong
Does the Streaming Board actually work? Every pick it showed, frozen at pick time and graded off the real box score. Two scoreboards below: first our own calls — the Verdict ladder and MIZ (our matchup score, 0–10) — then the outside lists behind them, BP (RelieverRecon's daily BP Streamers post) and PL (Pitcher List's tier ranking). Grades are recomputed from raw lines on every build — the rubric can change, the history follows.
Last 30d · 347 starts graded over 29 days · GOOD+ 47% · BLOWUP 18% · agg ERA 4.40 · WHIP 1.34 · 4.5 K/start · 374 picks logged, 15 never started, 12 awaiting a box score — not graded
| Cohort | n | GOOD+ | BLOWUP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 — Do our own calls work? · Verdict ladder + MIZ bands · live board rows only, nothing backfilled | |||
| Verdict · AUTO START | 26 | 73% | 15% |
| Verdict · START | 47 | 57% | 11% |
| Verdict · DART | 91 | 42% | 15% |
| Verdict · SIT | 183 | 44% | 22% |
| MIZ ≥ 5.0 | 117 | 62% | 15% |
| MIZ 3.5–4.9 | 136 | 43% | 20% |
| MIZ < 3.5 | 77 | 36% | 21% |
| All live board picks | 347 | 47% | 18% |
| Q1 read — the ladder has not separated: GOOD+ runs 73% · 57% · 42% · 44% down the rungs, and MIZ sorts: GOOD+ falls 62% · 43% · 36% from the top band down. | |||
| Q2 — Which outside list earns the weight? · BP and PL graded on their own published lists · mostly rebuilt from git | |||
| PL · Auto Start | 26 | 69% | 19% |
| PL · Probably Start | 41 | 59% | 12% |
| PL · Questionable Start | 99 | 47% | 19% |
| PL · Do Not Start | 156 | 44% | 20% |
| BP · Auto | 11 | 36% | 9% |
| BP · Likely | 31 | 45% | 16% |
| All graded picks | 347 | 47% | 18% |
| Q2 read — against the 47% all-picks baseline, PL's top tiers clear it (69% · 59%) and BP's top tiers are too thin to call (36% · 45% on n=11 · n=31). | |||
Rows are overlapping lenses on the same picks, not a partition — one start can be a PL Auto Start and a Verdict SIT at once, so they never sum to the headline; each group is read against its own baseline row.
⚠ Dissent check — the override is ahead so far — 71% GOOD+ on n=7. Splits are picks the board started over our MIZ sit-call (vs 47% for all live picks).
The ladder above asks whether the tiers sort. This asks the harder question: is the number a probability — when the board says 7, do 70% of those starts come back GOOD+? Bins are equal-count and merge until every one clears n=15; the walk-forward rows are scored against a model that only ever saw earlier days.
| Score bin | n | mean | GOOD+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIZ score → P(GOOD+) · our matchup score, 0–10 · live rows only · n=419 | |||
| MIZ 0.5–3.3 | 95 | 2.6 | 40% |
| MIZ 3.4–4.0 | 81 | 3.7 | 44% |
| MIZ 4.1–4.8 | 84 | 4.4 | 50% |
| MIZ 4.9–5.5 | 75 | 5.2 | 55% |
| MIZ 5.6–8.9 | 84 | 6.4 | 62% |
| All MIZ-scored picks | 419 | — | 50% |
| BP score → P(GOOD+) · RelieverRecon's published rating · includes git-backfilled rows · n=230 | |||
| BP 4.6–6.6 | 48 | 6.1 | 35% |
| BP 6.7–7.3 | 44 | 7.0 | 52% |
| BP 7.4–7.7 | 47 | 7.5 | 45% |
| BP 7.8–8.4 | 47 | 8.1 | 47% |
| BP 8.5–10.0 | 44 | 9.1 | 43% |
| All BP-scored picks | 230 | — | 44% |
| Verdict tier → P(GOOD+) · the consensus call itself · live rows only | |||
| AUTO START | 30 | — | 70% |
| START | 57 | — | 58% |
| DART | 116 | — | 47% |
| SIT | 237 | — | 46% |
| Out-of-sample | n | value |
|---|---|---|
| Walk-forward probability · logistic on MIZ, refit daily on earlier days only · from 2026-08-05 · 31 days | ||
| Brier — our probability | 355 | 0.246 |
| Brier — flat base rate to date | 355 | 0.255 |
| Brier — verdict-tier history | 355 | 0.254 |
| Log loss — our probability | 355 | 0.685 |
| ECE — our probability | 355 | 0.059 |
| ECE bins · predicted p vs what actually happened | ||
| said 32%–47% | 72 | 39% |
| said 47%–51% | 70 | 41% |
| said 51%–56% | 71 | 41% |
| said 56%–60% | 71 | 56% |
| said 60%–74% | 71 | 61% |
| Verdict — usable with caveats: ECE 0.059 over n=355 out-of-sample picks (≤0.03 well calibrated · ≤0.07 usable with caveats); edges the flat base rate on Brier (0.246 vs 0.255, a thin margin; log-loss ~coin-flip). | ||
Top 10 FA bats for today's slate · score = split vs SP hand (35%) + SP softness (35%) + bat quality (15%) + trailing 15 days (10%) + park (5%) · facing an elite arm fades the score hard (feast on weak pitchers).
Tiers vs YOUR lineup tonight — median starter 59, worst Royce Lewis (7). AUTO START = beats the median eligible starter.
TBD starter = neutral SP + split legs until the probable posts (refresh upgrades it). Splits need 30+ AB vs that hand. IL bats are excluded; bats who rarely start against tonight's hand are dropped. Doubleheaders: legs average the ends he plays, and everyday bats get up to a ×1.50 volume boost. Lineup slot scales the score by expected PAs from the bat's usual spot (leadoff ×1.12 … 9-hole ×0.90, modal over the last ~10 played days) — his typical order, not today's card, since that posts after waivers run.
PL Top 150 hitters · your bats + top FAs.
| Rank | Hitter | Chg | xwOBA | HR | SB | RoS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Kyle Schwarber | +3 | .365 | 41 | 3 | 124 |
| 18 | Randy Arozarena | - | .349 | 22 | 21 | 127 |
| 21 | Miguel Vargas | +19 | .386 | 30 | 15 | 115 |
| 36 | Yandy Díaz | +3 | .355 | 21 | 3 | 122 |
| 46 | Zach Neto | +11 | .305 | 23 | 19 | 111 |
| 59 | Jac Caglianone | +13 | .357 | 23 | 6 | 107 |
| 72 | Ty France | +12 | .331 | 20 | 1 | 109 |
| 77 | Royce Lewis | -15 | .316 | 14 | 14 | 96 |
| 85 | Cole Carrigg | -22 | .323 | 7 | 9 | 67 |
| 106 | Luis Robert Jr. | +UR | .321 | 11 | 2 | 100 |
| 109 | Mickey Gasper | +UR | .372 | 8 | 0 | 104 |
| 115 | Kaelen Culpepper | +UR | .320 | 3 | 1 | 90 |
| 119 | Rafael Flores Jr. | +UR | .339 | 7 | 0 | 83 |
| 133 | Connor Norby | +UR | .301 | 6 | 8 | 91 |
| 135 | Henry Bolte | +UR | .311 | 8 | 15 | 93 |
| 143 | Alejandro Kirk | +UR | .302 | 8 | 1 | 114 |
| 145 | Tyler Stephenson | -33 | .335 | 15 | 0 | 94 |
| 146 | Ryan Jeffers | -29 | .356 | 14 | 1 | 116 |
| 148 | Andruw Monasterio | -26 | .299 | 6 | 4 | 89 |
| 149 | Dylan Crews | -35 | .307 | 10 | 9 | 83 |
| 150 | Luis Rengifo | -24 | .304 | 4 | 6 | — |
| TS | Bryce Eldridge | — | .357 | 15 | 1 | 100 |
| TS | Jordan Lawlar | — | .308 | 4 | 4 | 91 |
| TS | Pedro Ramirez | — | .293 | 4 | 7 | 92 |
| TS | Walker Jenkins | — | .253 | 1 | 1 | 102 |
| UR | James Wood | — | .417 | 30 | 18 | 126 |
| UR | Ralphy Velazquez | — | — | — | — | 83 |
Hottest ACTIVE free-agent bats by contact quality, 8/23–9/5 · Heat = percentile vs all MLB bats over the same window (xwOBAcon 30 · EV 20 · Brl 20 · HH 15 · K 10 · BB 5) · min 15 BBE to qualify (smaller samples live in the HM rail) · IL excluded.
PL Top 100 SP · your arms + top FAs.
| Rank | Pitcher | Chg | xERA | K/9 | RoS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacob Misiorowski | - | 2.08 | 13.2 | 3.40 |
| 9 | Blake Snell | +7 | 2.11 | 12.1 | 3.31 |
| 10 | Dylan Cease | -1 | 2.73 | 12.7 | 3.45 |
| 20 | Kyle Harrison | +8 | 3.52 | 10.8 | 4.19 |
| 22 | Eury Pérez | -4 | 4.04 | 9.6 | 3.91 |
| 30 | Sandy Alcantara | -4 | 3.65 | 6.5 | 4.17 |
| 38 | Jacob Lopez | +6 | 3.40 | 8.8 | 4.55 |
| 39 | Dustin May | - | 4.30 | 8.6 | 4.18 |
| 40 | Walbert Ureña | - | 3.40 | 8.8 | 4.49 |
| 43 | Andrew Painter | +UR | 4.33 | 7.8 | 4.71 |
| 45 | Peter Lambert | -4 | 3.60 | 8.9 | 4.61 |
| 46 | Jared Jones | -8 | 3.63 | 10.5 | 3.97 |
| 54 | Joey Cantillo | -8 | 4.04 | 9.6 | 4.05 |
| 56 | Shane Bieber | +14 | 5.95 | 7.1 | 4.05 |
| 57 | Tyler Mahle | - | 4.18 | 8.7 | 4.05 |
| 58 | Brandon Pfaadt | - | 3.76 | 5.9 | 4.67 |
Save targets · roles + regression flags.
| Pitcher | Role | SV | ERA | WHIP | xERA | Rtg / Own | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yours on the chart | |||||||||||
| — | Andrés Muñoz | CL | 24 | 4.21 | 1.17 | 3.20 ↓ | 5.0 · — | ||||
| — | Louis Varland | CL | 33 | 1.15 | 0.98 | 2.19 ↑ | 5.0 · — | ||||
| Top 5 FA closers (by team rating) | |||||||||||
| — | Andrew Kittredge | CL | 9 | 3.27 | 1.39 | 4.04 | 4.0 · 4% | ||||
| — | Jacob Webb | CL | 9 | 3.15 | 1.23 | 4.06 | 4.0 · 5% | ||||
| — | Dylan Smith | CL | 4 | 3.13 | 1.33 | 3.68 | 4.0 · 1% | ||||
| — | Steven Cruz HLR | CL | 6 | 4.27 | 1.23 | 4.09 | 3.5 · 1% | ||||
| Juan Morillo | CL | 3 | 2.08 | 1.05 | 2.46 | 3.0 · 3% | |||||
ERA cell: green <3.00 · red >4.50. xERA arrow: ↓ ERA likely to fall (buy) · ↑ ERA likely to rise (sell). Triggers when |xERA−ERA| ≥ 1.00.
Drop priority · value, form, pedigree, role.
| 47 | Royce Lewis 3B · Min low TV (17) sim cost ~0 | TV 17 Rd 13 |
| 19 | Kyle Harrison SP · Mil mid TV (59); cold last 7d; UFDA — easy to drop; BUT top-tier keeper sim cost ~0 | TV 59 UFDA |
| 11 | Sandy Alcantara SP · Mia BUT solid keeper sim cost ~0 | TV 72 Rd 14 |
| 11 | Ryan Jeffers C · Min mid TV (36); hot — soft cut signal; BUT top-tier keeper; BUT young breakout signal sim cost ~0 | TV 36 UFDA |
| 8 | Blake Snell SP · LAD BUT strong RoS (3.31 ERA) sim cost ~0 | TV 80 Rd 8 |
Higher score = drop sooner — top 5 by score, and only 8+ reaches the board, so the number has no ceiling and is only comparable within this list. The sim line is a roto-sim marginal (cut vs. keep on one shared set of draws), not a measured cost. Pedigree + named closers shielded.
PL's top prospects · grab them cheap.
Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.
Source: The Stash List Week 23: Top 10 Hitting Prospects to Stash in 2026
Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + PSS + PFV + age + 40-man + path.
21 available — 1 yours

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.
Source: The Stash List Week 24: Top 10 Pitching Prospects to Stash in 2026
Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + L3 quality + FV + age + 40-man + path.
27 available
🔭 14 not a 2026 factor — Bryce Mayer · Jamie Arnold · Anthony Eyanson · Liam Doyle · Jackson Ferris · Tyson Hardin · Jackson Wolf · Jaxon Wiggins · Jurrangelo Cijntje · Daniel Eagen · Christian Zazueta · Joseph Dzierwa · Karson Milbrandt · Jonathan Santucci
Buy-low targets · league trade history.
Rebound candidates · suggested offers.
| Verdict | Target | Suggested offer |
|---|---|---|
| 📈 BUY-LOW | Juan Soto RF · NYM · GARR · jregarris +1.2σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.274 / xBA 0.293 · xwOBA 0.416 | Kyle Schwarber DH · comparable value (TV 100 vs target 100) |
| 📈 BUY-LOW | Heriberto Hernandez LF · Mia · FRAN · francisw789 +1.3σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.227 / xBA 0.246 · xwOBA 0.353 | Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 35 vs target 33) |
| 📈 BUY-LOW | JJ Bleday CF · Cin · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.2σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.221 / xBA 0.244 · xwOBA 0.349 | Henry Bolte RF + Royce Lewis 3B · two-piece package (TV 22 vs target 27) |
| ↑ mild buy | Taylor Ward LF · Sea · GoOs · My Best Guys +0.7σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.224 / xBA 0.241 · xwOBA 0.333 | Kyle Harrison SP · comparable value (TV 59 vs target 60) |
| ↑ mild buy | Dominic Canzone RF · Sea · GARR · jregarris +0.7σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.254 / xBA 0.269 · xwOBA 0.356 | Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 35 vs target 34) |
| ↑ mild buy | Kyle Stowers LF · Mia · KNIG · TKHOO +0.6σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.250 / xBA 0.234 · xwOBA 0.335 | Henry Bolte RF + Royce Lewis 3B + +$3 FAAB · two-piece package (TV 22 vs target 28) |
| ↑ mild buy | Jarren Duran LF · Bos · RAGE · glhoward40 +0.8σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.203 / xBA 0.234 · xwOBA 0.296 | Kyle Harrison SP · comparable value (TV 59 vs target 57) |
| ↑ mild buy | Ronald Acuna Jr. RF · Atl · GoOs · My Best Guys +0.8σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.251 / xBA 0.257 · xwOBA 0.362 | Blake Snell SP · comparable value (TV 80 vs target 86) |
| 📈 BUY-LOW | Mike Trout OF · LAA · KNIG · TKHOO +1.3σ buy-low · OF — fits a need · BA 0.241 / xBA 0.253 · xwOBA 0.376 | Sandy Alcantara SP · comparable value (TV 72 vs target 76) |
| ↑ mild buy | Heliot Ramos LF · NYY · DORN · Lambertmt48 +0.6σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.241 / xBA 0.255 · xwOBA 0.326 | Royce Lewis 3B · comparable value (TV 17 vs target 17) |
| Verdict | Target | Suggested offer |
|---|---|---|
| 📈 BUY-LOW | Kodai Senga SP · NYM · KRTZ · FratSkins +1.2σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 7.23 vs xERA 5.02 | Ralphy Velazquez 1B · comparable value (TV 2 vs target 4) |
| 📈 BUY-LOW | Kade Anderson SP · Sea · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.5σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 5.40 vs xERA 3.15 | Henry Bolte RF + Royce Lewis 3B + +$4 FAAB · two-piece package (TV 22 vs target 29) |
| ↑ mild buy | Freddy Peralta SP · TB · KNIG · TKHOO +0.7σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.96 vs xERA 3.90 | Kyle Harrison SP · comparable value (TV 59 vs target 58) |
| ↑ mild buy | Bryce Miller SP · Sea · BLOB · crenshawh19 +0.5σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.01 vs xERA 3.32 | Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 35 vs target 38) |
Completed trades · frozen grade at the deal + live grade now.
| Side | Sent | At deal | Now | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hit the Damn Ball You Bums ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17 | ||||
| Hit the Damn Ball You Bums | Andy Pages | A- +7 | A+ +45 | ▲ up |
| Camp MVP | Pete Crow-Armstrong | C -7 | F -45 | ▼ down |
| Team Knighton ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17 | ||||
| Team Knighton | Matthew Boyd | F -22 | F -22 | |
| Camp MVP | Kenley Jansen | A+ +22 | A+ +22 | |
| Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Worst2First 2026-08-10 | ||||
| Miz-waukee’s Best | Charlie Condon, Payton Tolle | A+ +50 | A+ +33 | ▼ down |
| Worst2First | Dylan Cease | F -50 | F -33 | ▲ up |
| Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Dorn and Associates LLC 2026-08-05 | ||||
| Photogenic Nick Kurtz | Travis Bazzana, George Lombard Jr., Nolan McLean | A+ +144 | A+ +105 | ▼ down |
| Dorn and Associates LLC | Jackson Chourio, Jhoan Duran, Brice Turang, David Bednar | F -144 | F -105 | ▲ up |
| Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-07-31 | ||||
| Miz-waukee’s Best | Samuel Basallo, Kade Anderson | A- +8 | A+ +20 | ▲ up |
| Ramirez Against the Machine | Blake Snell | C -8 | F -20 | ▼ down |
| Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Team Knighton 2026-07-23 | ||||
| Photogenic Nick Kurtz | Jo Adell, Jacob deGrom | F -49 | F -63 | ▼ down |
| Team Knighton | Trea Turner | A+ +49 | A+ +63 | ▲ up |
| Ramirez Against the Machine ⇄ Miz-waukee’s Best 2026-07-19 | ||||
| Ramirez Against the Machine | Sandy Alcantara | F -42 | F -68 | ▼ down |
| Miz-waukee’s Best | Josh Jung | A+ +42 | A+ +68 | ▲ up |
| I need Buck Showalter ⇄ Hit the Damn Ball You Bums 2026-06-19 | ||||
| I need Buck Showalter | Nasim Nunez | A+ +28 | A+ +26 | |
| Hit the Damn Ball You Bums | Justin Wrobleski | F -28 | F -26 | |
| Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ The Boys of Summer 2026-06-12 | ||||
| Miz-waukee’s Best | Chandler Simpson | A +10 | A- +7 | ▼ down |
| The Boys of Summer | $30 FAAB | D -10 | C -7 | ▲ up |
| Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-05-01 | ||||
| Miz-waukee’s Best | Kenley Jansen | — | A- +6 | |
| Camp MVP | $30 FAAB | A- +3 | C -6 | ▼ down |
| Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-04-22 | ||||
| Miz-waukee’s Best | Nathan Eovaldi, $70 FAAB | — | F -41 | |
| Ramirez Against the Machine | Jac Caglianone | A+ +60 | A+ +41 | ▼ down |
Surface line outrunning the underlying skill — trade-value peaks. σ = his surface-stat z-score minus his Statcast-skill z-score, both against the league reference for his side — bigger σ = further ahead of the skill. Pair with Buy-Low Targets.
| Verdict | Player | Surface vs expected | 2027 keeper |
|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ SHOP | Yandy Diaz 1B · TB 0.64σ sell-high · 1B · BA 0.304 / xBA 0.287 · xwOBA 0.355 — test the market, don't force it | BA 0.304 / xBA 0.287 +.017 wOBA 0.365 / xwOBA 0.355 +.010 | 7th · +1 rd vs mkt |
| ↓ SHOP | Henry Bolte RF · Oak 0.63σ sell-high · RF · BA 0.274 / xBA 0.245 · xwOBA 0.311 — test the market, don't force it | BA 0.274 / xBA 0.245 +.029 wOBA 0.332 / xwOBA 0.311 +.021 | 25th · +2 rds vs mkt |
| HOLD — KEEPER PRICE | Louis Varland RP · Tor 0.46σ sell-high · RP · ERA 1.15 vs xERA 2.19 — only move for keeper-grade return | ERA 1.15 / xERA 2.19 -1.04 | 22nd · +16 rds vs mkt |
Your roster · news + buy/sell signals.
Player news · last 24h.
Buy/sell windows · surface vs. underlying.
| Player | Pos | xwOBA | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Wood | LF | 0.417 | 📈 BUY-LOW |
| Kyle Schwarber | DH | 0.365 | 📈 BUY-LOW |
| Miguel Vargas | 3B | 0.386 | 📈 BUY-LOW |
| Bryce Eldridge | 1B | 0.357 | ↑ mild buy |
| Zach Neto | SS | 0.305 | fair |
| Jac Caglianone DTD | RF | 0.357 | fair |
| Randy Arozarena | LF | 0.349 | fair |
| Cole Carrigg | CF | 0.323 | fair |
| Ryan Jeffers | C | 0.356 | fair |
| Henry Bolte | RF | 0.311 | ↓ mild fade |
| Yandy Diaz | 1B | 0.355 | ↓ mild fade |
| Kaelen Culpepper | SS | 0.320 | fair |
| Royce Lewis | 3B | 0.316 | fair |
| Walker Jenkins | CF | 0.253 | — |
| Jordan Lawlar | 3B | 0.308 | fair |
| Ralphy Velazquez | 1B | — | — |
| Pedro Ramirez | 3B | 0.293 | fair |
| Pitcher | Pos | xERA | K-BB% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andres Munoz | RP | 3.20 | 29.0 | ↑ mild buy |
| Blake Snell | SP | 2.11 | 22.0 | ↑ mild buy |
| Joe Ryan IL15 | SP | 3.50 | 21.2 | fair |
| Jacob Misiorowski | SP | 2.08 | 31.8 | fair |
| Sandy Alcantara | SP | 3.65 | 11.3 | fair |
| Kyle Harrison | SP | 3.52 | 22.1 | fair |
| Dylan Cease | SP | 2.73 | 25.1 | fair |
| Eury Perez | SP | 4.04 | 15.5 | fair |
| Louis Varland | RP | 2.19 | 24.7 | ↓ mild fade |
Top fantasy stories · last 24h.
Peter's model (additive): rounds-saved (cost arbitrage spine) + current skill + career-grade pedigree + sample stability + Statcast over/under-performance trend, with age-decline (33+), closer/RP, and top-30 talent adjustments. Heavy on bargain-hunting.
Claude's model (multiplicative dynasty index): EFV(2027) = (3 + skill + upside) × age_mult × pos_mult; score = EFV − cost_replacement − mookie-lock. Compounds age curve and position scarcity.
Sorted by consensus rank (average of both models). MLB-inactive players surfaced in 🚑 Return Watch below.
| Cons Rank | Player | 2027 Cost | Peter | Claude |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Jacob Misiorowski | 21st | #1 (+24.4) | #1 (+50.8) |
| 2.5 | Miguel Vargas | 25th | #2 (+21.7) | #3 (+17.1) |
| 2.5 | Louis Varland | 22nd | #3 (+21.5) | #2 (+27.1) |
| 4.5 | Bryce Eldridge | 25th | #4 (+16.1) | #5 (+14.4) |
| 5.0 | Zach Neto | 10th | #6 (+13.6) | #4 (+16.1) |
| 5.5 | Henry Bolte | 25th | #5 (+14.7) | #6 (+13.8) |
| 7.0 | Dylan Cease | 4th | #7 (+12.0) | #7 (+11.7) |
| 8.5 | Jac Caglianone | 21st | #8 (+11.6) | — (+8.0) |
| 8.5 | Eury Perez | 20th | — (+10.5) | #8 (+8.5) |
NEW UFDA cap: Peter 3/3 · Claude 3/3 · BOTH = top 8 in both models. Peter only = his model values cost surplus more; Claude only = mine values projection / position scarcity more.
🚑 Return watch — would be keeper-eligible if they get MLB action this year. Rank shown is hypothetical (where they'd slot if eligible).
| Player | Cost | Peter (if elig.) | Claude (if elig.) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ralphy Velazquez | 1B · 19yo | 25th | #18 (-2.0) | #13 (+1.4) |
Updated Sun Sep 6 · 12:34 PM ET
Top 10 keepers · all 12 teams · both models. Yours in green.
| Cons Rank | Player | Team | 2027 Cost | Peter | Claude |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | Andy Pages | BLOB | 20th | #3 (+25.0) | #2 (+41.5) |
| 3.0 | Jacob Misiorowski | MIZ | 21st | #5 (+24.4) | #1 (+50.8) |
| 3.5 | Jesus Luzardo | KNIG | 21st | #1 (+27.8) | #6 (+33.4) |
| 3.5 | Jordan Walker | GARR | 25th | #2 (+27.3) | #5 (+38.7) |
| 4.0 | Bryan Baker | DORN | 25th | #4 (+24.9) | #4 (+38.7) |
| 6.0 | Cam Schlittler | KRTZ | 19th | #9 (+19.5) | #3 (+40.8) |
| 8.0 | Ben Rice | DORN | 20th | #6 (+23.3) | #10 (+24.0) |
| 8.0 | Louis Varland | MIZ | 22nd | #8 (+21.5) | #8 (+27.1) |
| 9.0 | Miguel Vargas | MIZ | 25th | #7 (+21.7) | — (+17.1) |
| 9.0 | Riley O'Brien | THAR | 17th | — (+13.8) | #7 (+30.6) |
| 10.0 | Drew Rasmussen | THAR | 8th | — (+13.8) | #9 (+26.0) |
| 10.5 | Jacob Latz | FRAN | 25th | #10 (+19.0) | — (+17.1) |
Updated Sun Sep 6 · 12:34 PM ET
Every team's six best keepers · shade = dual-model consensus value. Cupboard score weights the top four heavily (the slots that get kept), keepers 5–8 taper. 100 = league's best cupboard.
| Team | K1 | K2 | K3 | K4 | K5 | K6 | Cupboard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1MIZ | MisiorowskiR21 | VargasR25 | VarlandR22 | EldridgeR25 | NetoR10 | BolteR25 | 100 |
| 2DORN | BakerR25 | RiceR20 | McLeanR20 | BazzanaR25 | LaraR25 | PerdomoR21 | 87 |
| 3BLOB | PagesR20 | LopezR20 | SorianoR25 | ScottR25 | TaylorR25 | LileR15 | 78 |
| 4GARR | WalkerR25 | HancockR25 | MessickR18 | GrayR7 | CanzoneR25 | DinglerR22 | 62 |
| 5KNIG | LuzardoR21 | AbreuR15 | JensenR20 | deGromR13 | MartinezR25 | SuzukiR4 | 62 |
| 6KRTZ | SchlittlerR19 | BengeR25 | SanojaR25 | StewartR10 | McGonigleR17 | BurkeR25 | 62 |
| 7THAR | O'BrienR17 | RasmussenR8 | MarshR25 | WilliamsR11 | KeaschallR21 | Jr.R16 | 61 |
| 8GoOs | GriffinR25 | GoodmanR21 | BradleyR25 | BurlesonR9 | ReynoldsR10 | GomezR25 | 58 |
| 9FRAN | LatzR25 | CavalliR21 | AntonacciR25 | McCarthyR25 | BurnsR5 | BradishR21 | 56 |
| 10PEYT | HendersonR25 | SanchezR9 | SaggeseR25 | WooR8 | WetherholtR13 | MayoR17 | 55 |
| 11RAGE ▼ thin | EwingR25 | CamineroR5 | HerreraR20 | BasalloR19 | JonesR25 | EovaldiR6 | 50 |
| 12FRST ▼ thin | TolleR25 | WheelerR8 | RouppR25 | MuncyR18 | SkubalR1 | RumfieldR25 | 38 |
The bottom two rows are your trade marks — thin cupboards pay up for keepable pieces.