Miz-waukee’s Best — The Brandon League

Last updated Thursday, September 03 · 04:21 AM ET

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Any player in the league universe · tap a result for the card.

☕ Morning Briefing

🏆 MIZ holds 1st with 105.0 roto points, 21.0 clear of #2 — a comfortable cushion, though SV remains the one category to watch with KRTZ just 2 saves back.

⚾ Your guys delivered last night: Henry Bolte was the standout with a 3-for-4, 2-HR, 4-RBI, 2-R, 1-SB performance vs. the Rangers, and Cole Carrigg added a 3-for-5, 1-R, 1-RBI line vs. the Orioles, while Dylan Cease was sharp against the Guardians — 6 IP, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K with the win. The one blemish: Eury Perez got knocked around for 6 ER in 4.2 IP.

📊 Two tight category notes worth your attention: AVG is a soft +1 roto point sitting right there — you trail GoOs by just .001 — and Andrés Muñoz's role-security color ticked from magenta to yellow-flag territory, which is a trend signal, not a personnel change, but worth monitoring given how thin that SV lead over KRTZ already is.

📰 On the wire, Andrew Kittredge's confirmed closer role in Baltimore makes him the most actionable save add, projecting 2 SV with ratio protection — pure category fit given your SV vulnerability. Lars Nootbaar carries the strongest contact signal in the FA pool right now (23-BBE heat board, 85/99 contact quality). Griffin Jax's activation off Tampa Bay's IL is a note for PEYT's roster, not yours. The minor-league signings of Simeon Woods Richardson and recall of Raymond Burgos and Riley Cornelio are low-impact churn at this stage. Finally, make sure Sandy Alcantara is slotted into your active lineup for tonight.

ELIGIBILITYK. Schwarber 1B 7/10P. Ramirez 1B 4/10

Your standing

1stof 12

105.0 roto pts +21.0 clear of 2nd

+0.5 pts vs last update

Top Gaps

SB (7.0) W (7.0)

categories below mid-pack

Score change since last update

W +0.5

🎯 Category Pressure

Category ranks vs. the league.

Rank →

Δ to #1

941

1024

🥇

269

299

🥇

RBI

876

912

🥇

130

134

139

197

+63

AVG

.255

.256

.257

.259

+0.003

1174

1199

1335

+136

+12

+11

ERA

3.40

3.32

🥇

WHIP

1.17

1.12

🥇

📅 Yesterday's MIZ Box Scores (2026-09-02)

Loading box scores…

🏥 IL Rehab Tracker

IL players · rehab game logs.

Joe Ryan (SP) IL15 on rehab
AAA2026-09-01 · 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K, 0 BB

On the IL, no rehab games yet: Spencer Schwellenbach (IL60 · watch).

📊 League Activity (last 24h)

All adds, drops, and trades across the 12 teams.

Team	Move
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	+ Cal Quantrill \| − Jackson Jobe
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	+ Jacob Lopez \| − Steven Cruz
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	+ Yohandy Morales
Phil Swift's Flex Seal	− Tyler Mahle
Miz-waukee’s Best	− Andrew Kittredge

🏆 League Standings

Current roto points · 10,000-sim projected finish. FAAB = acquisition budget remaining.

100.0% to win the league · proj finish 1.0 · 102.3 roto pts

#	Team	Pts	FAAB	Win%	Proj Pts	Range	Proj Rk
1	MIZ Miz-waukee’s Best	105.0	$0	100.0%	102.3	99–105	1.0
2	FRAN Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	84.0	$60	0.0%	85.9	81–91	2.4
3	KRTZ Photogenic Nick Kurtz	79.0	$20	0.0%	83.1	77–89	2.9
4	PEYT Phil Swift's Flex Seal	76.0	$29	0.0%	79.3	74–85	3.6
5	GoOs I need Buck Showalter	70.0	$170	0.0%	70.1	65–75	5.3
6	BLOB Camp MVP	67.0	$168	0.0%	69.2	65–73	5.5
7	THAR Phil Mickeltits	62.5	$176	0.0%	57.5	53–62	7.7
8	KNIG Team Knighton	62.0	$137	0.0%	60.2	56–64	7.2
9	GARR The Boys of Summer	49.0	$155	0.0%	49.2	44–54	9.2
10	DORN Dorn and Associates LLC	45.5	$89	0.0%	46.7	43–51	9.7
11	RAGE Ramirez Against the Machine	40.0	$163	0.0%	35.1	32–39	11.9
12	FRST Worst2First	40.0	$154	0.0%	41.3	37–46	10.9

10,000 sims · fixed seed · noise CV talent 0.12 / idio 0.06 / team-cat 0.08 · assumes ATC rest-of-season rates

Your categories · projected roto points

R 12.0HR 12.0RBI 11.9SB 6.8AVG 9.2W 6.6SV 9.0K 10.8ERA 11.9WHIP 12.0

Winnable — push here: SB, AVG, W, SV.

🚨 Today's Streaming Board

156 of 200 GS · should be 174 · 18 behindBehind pace — stream aggressively

044 left · ~12.8/wk to cap · proj 179200

⏳ BP's post is late — Verdict pill is running on our score + Pitcher List for now (BP joins the top-2 once it posts).

Your starters + top FA streamers

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Sandy Alcantara	@ KC	START	—	5.6	#3	average KC lineup, hitter park, strong skills
Jack Perkins	@ SEA	START⚠ opener	—	6.5	—	average SEA lineup, friendly park, hot recent form
Jake Bennett	@ BAL	DART	—	6.6	#12	average BAL lineup, strong skills, hot recent form
J.T. Ginn	@ SEA	DART	—	—	#11	—
Brandon Young	vs BOS	SIT	—	4.3	#13	average BOS lineup, hitter park
Blade Tidwell	@ PIT	SIT⚠ opener	—	4.3	#16	tough PIT lineup, shaky recent form, strong skills
Quinn Mathews	@ LAD	SIT	—	4.3	#17	tough LAD lineup, shaky recent form, strong skills
Luis Castillo	@ HOU	SIT	—	2.2	#15	tough HOU lineup, shaky recent form, short leash
Carmen Mlodzinski	vs. SFG	SIT	—	—	#18	—

Openers filtered: Lake Bachar

Your staff: 3.32 ERA / 1.12 WHIP · GS 156/200 — Behind pace — stream aggressively. Verdict = the best 2 of BP · our score · Pitcher List, averaged (low outlier dropped); before BP posts it's our score + PL. ⚠ = our matchup score dissented — eyeball that one. Tap a MIZ score for the reasoning.

Tomorrow · top 5 FA · Fri 9/4 · BP not out yet, so pill = our score + Pitcher List

Pitcher	Matchup	Verdict	BP	MIZ	PL	Take
Keider Montero	@ CLE	START	—	6.6	—	soft CLE lineup, hot recent form, strong skills
Walker Buehler	vs NYY	START	—	5.9	—	average NYY lineup, hot recent form
Jared Jones	vs LAA	START	—	5.7	—	soft LAA lineup, short leash, strong skills
Zebby Matthews	@ CWS	START	—	5.7	—	average CWS lineup, hot recent form
Andrew Sears	@ CLE	DART	—	5.4	—	soft CLE lineup

Quinn Mathews@ LAD LHP4.3

LAD off .745 OPS · tough matchupskill 80 pctlL21: 5.52 ERA / 1.5 WHIPL14 contact +1.2 (.339 xwOBAcon-against, 35 BBE)~4.7 IP/startexp 4.63 ERA ↑ hurts (you 3.32)exp 1.54 WHIP ↑ hurts (you 1.12)GS 156/200 · Behind pace — stream aggressively

matchup

skill

form

win

park

📼 Streamer Report Card

Does the Streaming Board actually work? Every pick it showed, frozen at pick time and graded off the real box score. Two scoreboards below: first our own calls — the Verdict ladder and MIZ (our matchup score, 0–10) — then the outside lists behind them, BP (RelieverRecon's daily BP Streamers post) and PL (Pitcher List's tier ranking). Grades are recomputed from raw lines on every build — the rubric can change, the history follows.

Last 30d · 355 starts graded over 29 days · GOOD+ 48% · BLOWUP 17% · agg ERA 4.34 · WHIP 1.33 · 4.5 K/start · 379 picks logged, 14 never started, 10 awaiting a box score — not graded

Grade mix · all 355 graded starts

GEM 64 GOOD 106 OK 124 BLOWUP 61

GEM6+ IP, ≤1 ER · or 6+ IP, 8+ K, ≤2 ERGOODquality start (6+ IP, ≤3 ER) · or 5+ IP, ≤2 EROKheld the line without earning GOODBLOWUP5+ ER · or under 4 IP with 4+ ERGOOD+ = GEM + GOOD. A pick whose starter never took the ball grades to nothing and leaves every rate below.

Cohort	n	GOOD+	BLOWUP	ERA
Q1 — Do our own calls work? · Verdict ladder + MIZ bands · live board rows only, nothing backfilled
Verdict · AUTO START	26	69%	15%	3.49
Verdict · START	47	57%	11%	3.98
Verdict · DART	95	47%	14%	4.52
Verdict · SIT	187	43%	21%	4.47
MIZ ≥ 5.0	117	61%	14%	3.67
MIZ 3.5–4.9	139	45%	19%	4.73
MIZ < 3.5	82	37%	20%	4.85
All live board picks	355	48%	17%	4.34
Q1 read — GOOD+ falls 69% · 57% · 47% · 43% down the rungs, but BLOWUP does not rise with it, and MIZ sorts: GOOD+ falls 61% · 45% · 37% from the top band down.
Q2 — Which outside list earns the weight? · BP and PL graded on their own published lists · mostly rebuilt from git
PL · Auto Start	26	65%	19%	4.12
PL · Probably Start	40	58%	12%	3.99
PL · Questionable Start	97	51%	16%	4.44
PL · Do Not Start	168	44%	20%	4.39
BP · Auto	11	36%	9%	4.74
BP · Likely	38	47%	16%	4.18
All graded picks	355	48%	17%	4.34
Q2 read — against the 48% all-picks baseline, PL's top tiers clear it (65% · 58%) and BP's top tiers are too thin to call (36% · 47% on n=11 · n=38).

Rows are overlapping lenses on the same picks, not a partition — one start can be a PL Auto Start and a Verdict SIT at once, so they never sum to the headline; each group is read against its own baseline row.

⚠ Dissent check — the override is ahead so far — 62% GOOD+ on n=8. Splits are picks the board started over our MIZ sit-call (vs 48% for all live picks).

Calibration — do our numbers mean anything? · full season, 2026-06-29→2026-09-02 · 929 graded picks · MIZ on 389, BP on 230, Verdict on 410

The ladder above asks whether the tiers sort. This asks the harder question: is the number a probability — when the board says 7, do 70% of those starts come back GOOD+? Bins are equal-count and merge until every one clears n=15; the walk-forward rows are scored against a model that only ever saw earlier days.

Score bin	n	mean	GOOD+	95% CI
MIZ score → P(GOOD+) · our matchup score, 0–10 · live rows only · n=389
MIZ 0.5–3.3	91	2.6	40%	30%–50%
MIZ 3.4–3.9	68	3.7	44%	33%–56%
MIZ 4.0–4.8	85	4.4	49%	39%–60%
MIZ 4.9–5.5	70	5.2	56%	44%–67%
MIZ 5.6–8.9	75	6.4	63%	51%–73%
All MIZ-scored picks	389	—	50%	—
BP score → P(GOOD+) · RelieverRecon's published rating · includes git-backfilled rows · n=230
BP 4.6–6.6	48	6.1	35%	23%–50%
BP 6.7–7.3	44	7.0	52%	38%–66%
BP 7.4–7.7	47	7.5	45%	31%–59%
BP 7.8–8.4	47	8.1	47%	33%–61%
BP 8.5–10.0	44	9.1	43%	30%–58%
All BP-scored picks	230	—	44%	—
Verdict tier → P(GOOD+) · the consensus call itself · live rows only
AUTO START	29	—	69%	51%–83%
START	53	—	58%	45%–71%
DART	108	—	48%	39%–57%
SIT	220	—	45%	39%–52%

Out-of-sample	n	value	vs
Walk-forward probability · logistic on MIZ, refit daily on earlier days only · from 2026-08-05 · 28 days
Brier — our probability	325	0.246	lower is better
Brier — flat base rate to date	325	0.255	we win by 0.009
Brier — verdict-tier history	325	0.255	we win by 0.009
Log loss — our probability	325	0.684	lower is better
ECE — our probability	325	0.065	5 equal-count bins
ECE bins · predicted p vs what actually happened
said 32%–47%	65	38%	off by 4%
said 47%–51%	65	38%	off by 11%
said 51%–56%	65	42%	off by 12%
said 56%–60%	65	58%	off by 1%
said 60%–74%	65	60%	off by 5%
Verdict — usable with caveats: ECE 0.065 over n=325 out-of-sample picks (≤0.03 well calibrated · ≤0.07 usable with caveats); edges the flat base rate on Brier (0.246 vs 0.255, a thin margin; log-loss ~coin-flip).

🔥 Today's Hitter Streamers

Top 10 FA bats for today's slate · score = split vs SP hand (35%) + SP softness (35%) + bat quality (15%) + trailing 15 days (10%) + park (5%) · facing an elite arm fades the score hard (feast on weak pitchers).

#	Hitter	Matchup	Why	Legs	Score
1	AUTO STARTMickey GasperC · 10% own	@ BAL · Young RHP	szn .368 xwOBAL15: 1.548 OPS (42 PA)L14 contact +6.0 (.563 xwOBAcon, 21 BBE)usually bats 2nd (×1.10)beats 1 of 1 eligible startersYoung .321 allowed · avg SP0.98 OPS vs RHP (125 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	92
2	AUTO STARTJustin Foscue2B · 0% own	vs TB · McClanahan LHP	szn .328 xwOBAL15: 0.942 OPS (37 PA)L14 contact +1.8 (.409 xwOBAcon, 24 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)beats 4 of 4 eligible startersMcClanahan .314 allowed · avg SP0.989 OPS vs LHP (115 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	80
3	STARTRyan ViladeRF · 0% own	@ TEX · Quantrill RHP	szn .337 xwOBAL14 contact +6.0 (.579 xwOBAcon, 14 BBE)usually bats 2nd (×1.10)fills OF needbeats 3 of 7 eligible startersshort side vs RHP — 37% of ABQuantrill .309 allowed · avg SP0.735 OPS vs RHP (76 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	55
4	STARTJesus SanchezRF · 1% own	@ CLE · Bibee RHP	szn .330 xwOBAusually bats 5thfills OF needbeats 2 of 4 eligible startersBibee .319 allowed · avg SP0.794 OPS vs RHP (230 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	52
5	STARTNathaniel Lowe1B · 2% own	vs TOR · Soriano RHP	szn .332 xwOBAL15: 0.468 OPS (55 PA)L14 contact -2.8 (.307 xwOBAcon, 35 BBE)usually bats 5thbeats 1 of 3 eligible startersSoriano .325 allowed · avg SP0.84 OPS vs RHP (294 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	51
6	AUTO STARTIsiah Kiner-FalefaSS · 0% own	@ BAL · Young RHP	szn .309 xwOBAbeats 2 of 3 eligible startersYoung .321 allowed · avg SP0.795 OPS vs RHP (83 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	51
7	STARTNick Sogard1B · 10% own	@ BAL · Young RHP	szn .322 xwOBAL15: 0.869 OPS (61 PA)L14 contact +0.2 (.374 xwOBAcon, 35 BBE)usually bats 1st (×1.12)beats 2 of 4 eligible startersYoung .321 allowed · avg SP0.694 OPS vs RHP (125 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	50
8	STARTJoey LoperfidoLF · 0% own	vs CWS · Castillo RHP	szn .297 xwOBAfills OF needbeats 2 of 4 eligible startersCastillo .341 allowed · soft SP0.721 OPS vs RHP (88 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	50
9	STARTAnthony Seigler3B · 0% own	@ BAL · Young RHP	szn .315 xwOBAusually bats 9th (×0.90)beats 1 of 3 eligible startersYoung .321 allowed · avg SP0.797 OPS vs RHP (112 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	47
10	CONSIDERAndrew Vaughn1B · 4% own	@ CHC · Gausman RHP	szn .336 xwOBAL15: 0.883 OPS (37 PA)L14 contact -3.2 (.299 xwOBAcon, 22 BBE)usually bats 4th (×1.05)beats 0 of 3 eligible startersGausman .306 allowed · avg SP0.762 OPS vs RHP (159 AB)	L15 bat SP L/R park	46

Tiers vs YOUR lineup tonight — median starter 56, worst Pedro Ramirez (9). AUTO START = beats the median eligible starter.

TBD starter = neutral SP + split legs until the probable posts (refresh upgrades it). Splits need 30+ AB vs that hand. IL bats are excluded; bats who rarely start against tonight's hand are dropped. Doubleheaders: legs average the ends he plays, and everyday bats get up to a ×1.50 volume boost. Lineup slot scales the score by expected PAs from the bat's usual spot (leadoff ×1.12 … 9-hole ×0.90, modal over the last ~10 played days) — his typical order, not today's card, since that posts after waivers run.

🎯 FA Hitters — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Randy Arozarena

1Lars NootbaarLF · Ari · 2.9%HEATER

Trusted 23-BBE heat board (85/99, 0.46 xwOBAcon) corroborated by scorching L7 production; best signal stack in pool

Heat 85 · 23 BBE · ATC 67 PA · 2 HR · 1 SB · 0.245 · L7 0.429 · 2 HR · sim -0.1 pts

2Mickey Gasper

C · Bos · 9.9% · HEATER

91/99 heat score on 21 BBE with 0.563 xwOBAcon; L7 confirms with 2 HR, .333 BA despite PT limits

Heat 91 · 21 BBE · ATC 28 PA · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.225 · L7 0.333 · 2 HR · sim -0.1 pts

3Brady House

3B · Wsh · 0.9% · BEST VALUE

28-BBE heat sample, 10 RBI last 7 days; volume and production corroborate the contact-quality signal

Heat 74 · 28 BBE · ATC 65 PA · 2 HR · 1 SB · 0.243 · L7 0.389 · 1 HR · sim -0.1 pts

4Xander Bogaerts

SS · SD · 18.6% · FLOOR

Best RoS projection volume (91 PA), positive roto sim delta, 3 SB helps live SB gap to rank 5

ATC 91 PA · 2 HR · 3 SB · 0.259 · L7 0.188 · 0 HR · sim +0.1 pts

5Sean Murphy

C · Atl · 0.9% · HEATER

16-BBE borderline but 0.517 xwOBAcon plus .400/.375 recent BA corroborates; rare catcher heat event

Heat 75 · 16 BBE · ATC 47 PA · 2 HR · 0 SB · 0.216 · L7 0.4 · 1 HR · sim -0.1 pts

Passed on: Michael Conforto has an elite 0.567 xwOBAcon heat score but only 16 BBE, tiny PA projection (53), and a .220 ATC AVG drag — volume and AVG risk knock him below the five picks above.

💪 Hitter List Rankings

PL Top 150 hitters · your bats + top FAs.

On Hitter List · 17 yours · 9 FAs

Rank	Hitter	MLB	Pos	Chg	AVG	xwOBA	HR	SB	RoS	Chu’s Take
16	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	DH	+3	.240	.363	40	3	127
18	Randy Arozarena	SEA	OF	-	.272	.347	22	20	123
21	Miguel Vargas	CHW	1B/3B	+19	.249	.389	29	13	113	Miguel Vargas has returned to the levels we saw early this summer and that really revs my engine. He’s one of those players who has shown…
36	Yandy Díaz	TB	1B	+3	.302	.355	21	3	123
46	Zach Neto	LAA	SS	+11	.236	.307	23	19	109	Zach Neto has been a monster over the last nine games, with 17 hits, 18 combined runs and RBI (a seven RBI night helps), and seven extra-…
59	Jac Caglianone	KC	1B/OF	+13	.282	.360	23	6	107	Jac Caglianone still hits a lot of grounders, but not quite as many as before (the rolling 15-game rate is a hair below 50%) and the stri…
72	Ty France	SD	1B	+12	.292	.330	20	1	106
77	Royce Lewis	MIN	1B/2B/3B	-15	.235	.318	14	14	103	Royce Lewis is streaky. We just gotta deal with that.
85	Cole Carrigg	COL	SS/OF	-22	.262	.317	6	8	68	The strikeouts have creeped up on Cole Carrigg , up to 32% over his last 11 games (which is, conveniently, exactly 50 plate appearances).…
106	Luis Robert Jr.	NYM	OF	+UR	.222	.318	10	2	95
109	Mickey Gasper	BOS	C	+UR	.283	.368	7	0	94	Mickey Gasper — Fantastic mustache, first of all. Second of all, the batted ball data suggests what’s happening of late is very real, tho…
115	Kaelen Culpepper	MIN	SS	+UR	.300	.327	3	0	91	Kaelen Culpepper — Culpepper puts a lot of balls in play and it’s working out so far. The BABIP Gods can be cruel, though. The 55 point g…
119	Rafael Flores Jr.	PIT	C/1B	+UR	.209	.341	7	0	83
135	Henry Bolte	ATH	OF	+UR	.274	.301	8	15	91	Henry Bolte is leading off again and should get some games in Sacramento soon, if you need a streamer.
143	Alejandro Kirk	TOR	C	+UR	.271	.307	8	1	110
145	Tyler Stephenson	CIN	C	-33	.249	.337	14	0	98
146	Ryan Jeffers	MIN	C	-29	.276	.360	13	1	118
148	Andruw Monasterio	BOS	2B/SS	-26	.248	.299	6	4	92
149	Dylan Crews	WSH	OF	-35	.216	.310	10	8	87
150	Luis Rengifo	SD	2B/3B/OF	-24	.240	.304	4	6	—
TS	Bryce Eldridge	SF	1B	—	.263	.356	15	1	99	Bryce Eldridge (1B, SFG) — Power prospects can often take a while to really shine.
TS	Jordan Lawlar	Ari	3B/OF	—	.276	.326	4	4	89	Jordan Lawlar (3B/OF, ARI) — I do not love that he’s sat against two of the three righties the D-Backs have faced, nor the strikeouts. He…
TS	Pedro Ramirez	ChC	2B/3B	—	.285	.305	4	7	91	Pedro Ramirez (2B/3B, CHC) — Hitting well when he plays, which is not very often.
TS	Walker Jenkins	Min	OF	—	.150	.279	1	1	92	Walker Jenkins (OF, MIN) — Jenkins will get the call today after a white-hot month in the triple-A. He’s worth a scoop in most leagues, E…
UR	James Wood	Wsh	OF	—	.265	.419	30	17	129	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.
UR	Ralphy Velazquez	Cle	1B	—	—	—	—	—	84	Not ranked or mentioned in this week's Hitter List.

🔥 Heat Board

Hottest ACTIVE free-agent bats by contact quality, 8/20–9/2 · Heat = percentile vs all MLB bats over the same window (xwOBAcon 30 · EV 20 · Brl 20 · HH 15 · K 10 · BB 5) · min 15 BBE to qualify (smaller samples live in the HM rail) · IL excluded.

Mickey Gasper

C · Bos · 9.9% own · xwOBAcon .563 · EV 91.1 · Brl 23.8% · 21 BBE

▲ .108 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.283	7	21	21	0
L14	.391	4	7	6	0

Elias Diaz

C · Tex · 0.1% own · xwOBAcon .436 · EV 96.0 · Brl 31.2% · 16 BBE

▲ .008 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.230	6	24	17	0
L14	.238	1	4	3	0

Lars Nootbaar

LF · Ari · 2.9% own · xwOBAcon .460 · EV 92.0 · Brl 17.4% · 23 BBE

▲ .077 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.231	6	27	29	2
L14	.308	2	8	4	0

Hao-Yu Lee

3B · Det · 1.3% own · xwOBAcon .458 · EV 95.0 · Brl 13.8% · 29 BBE

▼ .032 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.269	8	36	29	2
L14	.237	2	5	4	1

Luis Robert Jr.

CF · Bal · 14.3% own · xwOBAcon .451 · EV 91.9 · Brl 18.2% · 22 BBE

▲ .045 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.222	10	25	25	2
L14	.267	3	4	5	0

Drew Gilbert

RF · SF · 0.6% own · xwOBAcon .499 · EV 91.2 · Brl 17.4% · 23 BBE

▼ .015 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.234	8	36	44	1
L14	.219	2	7	8	0

Michael Conforto

LF · ChC · 0.4% own · xwOBAcon .567 · EV 89.4 · Brl 12.5% · 16 BBE

▲ .134 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.234	13	37	29	1
L14	.368	3	7	4	0

Sean Murphy

C · Atl · 0.9% own · xwOBAcon .517 · EV 89.1 · Brl 18.8% · 16 BBE

▲ .133 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.242	3	8	8	0
L14	.375	2	4	5	0

Drew Cavanaugh

C · SF · 0.1% own · xwOBAcon .549 · EV 90.4 · Brl 12.5% · 16 BBE

▲ .007 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.243	0	9	6	1
L14	.250	0	4	1	0

Brady House

3B · Wsh · 0.9% own · xwOBAcon .365 · EV 94.8 · Brl 7.1% · 28 BBE

▲ .052 BA vs SZN

	BA	HR	RBI	R	SB
SZN	.242	10	41	35	2
L14	.294	1	10	4	0

Honorable mention · hottest L7 (8/27–9/2), not yet on the board · tiny samples — peek, don't trust

TJ Friedl

CF · Cin

.658 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .333 L7

Ryan Vilade

RF · TB

.658 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .222 L7

Amed Rosario

3B · NYY

.456 xwOBAcon

14 BBE · .400 L7

Thomas Saggese

2B · StL

.656 xwOBAcon

8 BBE · .625 L7

Tyler Stephenson

C · Cin

.518 xwOBAcon

11 BBE · .353 L7

Colton Cowser

CF · Bal

.484 xwOBAcon

14 BBE · .150 L7

🎯 FA Pitchers — Top 5 recommended · every signal we track considered, ACTIVE only · Verdict: engine + model judgment · sim drop basis: Louis Varland

1Andrew KittredgeRP · Bal · 3.6%CATEGORY FIT

Closer role confirmed, 2 projected SV, roto sim flat (-0.0) — pure saves add with ratio protection.

Supp 27 · 20 BBE · ATC 9.0 IP · 1 W · 9 K · 3.87 · 1.21 · 2 SV · Closer · sim -0.0 pts

2Andrew Painter

SP · Phi · 14.7% · HEATER

77th-percentile suppression, 83.1 EV-allowed on trusted 32 BBE; Philly rotation upside worth streaming.

Supp 77 · 32 BBE · ATC 19.0 IP · 1 W · 16 K · 4.78 · 1.39 · sim -0.5 pts

3Robert Gasser

SP · Mil · 3.4% · BEST VALUE

74th-percentile suppression on 40 BBE trusted sample; best projected ERA/WHIP among volume SPs.

Supp 74 · 40 BBE · ATC 18.0 IP · 1 W · 17 K · 4.16 · 1.25 · sim -0.5 pts

4Bailey Ober

SP · Min · 15.0% · FLOOR

56th-percentile suppression, 86.6 EV-allowed, cleanest WHIP projection (1.23) among SPs; ratio-safe floor.

Supp 56 · 29 BBE · ATC 25.0 IP · 1 W · 21 K · 4.56 · 1.23 · sim -0.5 pts

5Juan Morillo

RP · Ari · 2.7% · UPSIDE

95th-percentile suppression, confirmed closer role; sub-15 BBE flare needs monitoring but saves upside real.

Supp 95 · 11 BBE · ATC 8.0 IP · 0 W · 8 K · 3.83 · 1.35 · 1 SV · Closer · sim -0.4 pts

Passed on: Jose Urquidy has elite 97th-percentile suppression but ATC projects only 5 IP with 0 GS remaining, making him volume-dead and useless for streaming.

⚾ Pitcher List Rankings

PL Top 100 SP · your arms + top FAs.

On Pitcher List · 6 yours · 10 FAs

Rank	Pitcher	MLB	Chg	ERA	xERA	K/9	RoS	Pollack’s Take
1	Jacob Misiorowski	MIL	-	1.97	2.01	13.2	3.32	Like a base set Charizard, Misiorowski’s not gonna stop being dope.
9	Blake Snell	LAD	+7	2.42	2.10	12.5	3.42	#HotSnellSummer is in full swing.
10	Dylan Cease	TOR	-1	2.25	2.66	12.7	3.45	Like a perfect burger without the condiments to hit all your macros, Cease gives you everything except for a stable WHIP due to his infla…
20	Kyle Harrison	MIL	+8	3.45	3.52	10.9	4.12	With a dominant outing, he muted our concerns, but Harrison’s still displaying decreased velocity and not commanding as well as he did in…
22	Eury Pérez	MIA	-4	3.72	3.71	9.6	3.87	Pérez has the stuff to be an ace, but there’s polishing to do in the command and game plan departments to unlock his full potential.
30	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	-4	3.46	3.63	6.6	4.19	Baseball’s premier innings eater hasn’t ruined his appetite.
39	Dustin May	MIL	-	4.69	4.21	8.5	4.09	May got Singled Out in a disastrous performance, but his stuff is still dope, and his new situation is ideal. Higher win chance, great de…
40	Walbert Ureña	LAA	-	2.85	3.40	8.8	4.54	Armed with upper-90s heaters and one of the best changeups in baseball, Ureña has hit few speed bumps. If that developing sweeper becomes…
43	Andrew Painter	PHI	+UR	5.55	4.60	7.8	4.78	From off The List to inside the Top 50, Painter has stolen our hearts with an improved heater (97+ mph with 17-18″ iVB) and emphasis on r…
45	Peter Lambert	HOU	-4	3.66	3.60	8.9	4.58	Lambert’s stumble last time was a product of being Singled Out . He’s been reliable all year, but we should be recognizing that Holly is …
46	Jared Jones	PIT	-8	4.83	3.84	10.3	3.99	The stuff is top-tier, but he’s still shaking off the Tommy John surgery rust with his command and the tight leash the Pirates have on hi…
54	Joey Cantillo	CLE	-8	3.81	4.01	9.6	4.05	Efficiency is a problem, but Cantillo is doing everything we want. More curveballs, faster fastballs, and supportive cutters. Throw more …
56	Shane Bieber	TOR	+14	4.37	5.95	7.1	4.19	Bieber is back in business. His heater looked awesome in The Trop, and his offspeed pitches are being the CSW monsters they need to be to…
57	Tyler Mahle	ATL	-	4.25	4.18	8.7	4.10	Mahle’s command and velocity have been stellar since returning from the IL in late June. He’s got an even better situation pitching in At…
58	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	-	3.49	3.76	5.9	4.60	Despite what the line suggests, Pfaadt’s last start wasn’t an end to his Vargas Rule . It was a textbook Careful, Icarus with a three-run…
59	Christian Scott	NYM	+1	3.80	4.04	10.7	3.94	Scott has been happy to show us his floor, but the stuff is still there to propel him up The List at a moment’s notice. It’s felt a littl…

🔒 Closer Chart

Save targets · roles + regression flags.

🚨 Closer Tier Changes (vs. yesterday)

COLOR SHIFT Chicago Cubs: Jacob Webb → Jacob Webb ( → yellow) rostered
COLOR SHIFT Pittsburgh Pirates: Mason Montgomery → Mason Montgomery (magenta → ) rostered
COLOR SHIFT Seattle Mariners: Andrés Muñoz → Andrés Muñoz (magenta → ) rostered

BLUEEntrenched closer (highest leverage)GREENNext man up / committee pieceYELLOWSetup, 8th-inning leverageORANGESpeculative / lower priorityMAGENTAHigh-upside future / multi-inning

	Pitcher	Tm	Role	SV	SVHD	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K/9	Rtg / Own
Yours on the chart
—	Andrés Muñoz	Seattle Mariners	CL	24	24	50.3	4.29	1.19	3.27 ↓	14.5	5.0 · —
—	Louis Varland	Toronto Blue Jays	CL	31	36	68.7	1.18	0.98	2.19 ↑	11.0	5.0 · —
Top 5 FA closers (by team rating)
—	Andrew Kittredge	Baltimore Orioles	CL	9	18	44.0	3.27	1.39	3.98	7.6	4.0 · 4%
	Steven Cruz HLR	Kansas City Royals	CL	6	11	51.7	4.35	1.26	4.18	9.8	3.5 · 1%
	Elvis Alvarado	The Athletics	CL	5	13	45.0	4.00	1.18	4.57	10.8	3.0 · 3%
	Juan Morillo	Arizona Diamondbacks	CL	3	20	55.3	2.11	1.05	2.32	10.4	3.0 · 3%
	Michael Petersen	Miami Marlins	CL	1	24	57.3	3.30	1.13	3.42	10.5	3.0 · 2%

ERA cell: green <3.00 · red >4.50. xERA arrow: ↓ ERA likely to fall (buy) · ↑ ERA likely to rise (sell). Triggers when |xERA−ERA| ≥ 1.00.

✂️ Cut List

Drop priority · value, form, pedigree, role.

51	Royce Lewis 3B · Min low TV (18) sim cost ~0	TV 18 Rd 13
26	Kyle Harrison SP · Mil mid TV (44); cold last 7d; UFDA — easy to drop; BUT top-tier keeper sim cost ~0	TV 44 UFDA
15	Ryan Jeffers C · Min mid TV (37); BUT top-tier keeper; BUT young breakout signal sim cost ~0	TV 37 UFDA
15	Blake Snell SP · LAD BUT strong RoS (3.42 ERA) sim cost ~0	TV 80 Rd 8
11	Sandy Alcantara SP · Mia BUT solid keeper sim cost ~0	TV 72 Rd 14

Higher score = drop sooner — top 5 by score, and only 8+ reaches the board, so the number has no ceiling and is only comparable within this list. The sim line is a roto-sim marginal (cut vs. keep on one shared set of draws), not a measured cost. Pedigree + named closers shielded.

🌱 Stash List

PL's top prospects · grab them cheap.

Hitters

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 23: Top 10 Hitting Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + PSS + PFV + age + 40-man + path.

19 available — 1 yours

R. Velazquez YOURS

1B/C · CLE · AA · 20 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

28·2·.294

S. Thompson

OF · COL · AAA · 24 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

12·16·.298

J. Tibbs III

OF · LAD · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

27·8·.293

C. Cannarella

OF · MIA · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

14·21·.331

S. Walcott

3B/SS · TEX · AA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

8·8·.325

M. Anderson

2B · DET · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

16·5·.306

J. Melton

OF · TB · AAA · 25 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

7·26·.283

S. King

SS/2B/3B · WSN · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

19·14·.315

Z. Hope

OF · DET · AA · 21 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

27·24·.282

C. Ingle

C · CLE · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

18·2·.283

R. Ward

LF · LAD · AAA · 28 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

1-3wk

Szn

20·7·.251

J. Made

SS · MIL · AA · 19 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

13·36·.270

H. Mendez

OF · MIN · AAA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

Sept

Szn

12·4·.278

J. Long

1B · CHC · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

13·3·.274

K. Alderman

OF · MIA · AAA · 23 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

18·10·.256

M. Arroyo

SS · SEA · AAA · 21 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

4-8wk

Szn

18·16·.280

B. Davidson

OF · SFG · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

September

Szn

26·19·.279

P. Harber

3B · SFG · AAA · 24 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

'27

Szn

17·4·.277

D. Crisantes

2B/3B · ARI · AAA · 21 · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

blocked

Szn

9·0·.292

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

Pitchers

Yours first · call-ups · then RI. Yours in green.

Source: The Stash List Week 23: Top 10 Pitching Prospects to Stash in 2026

Yours first, then ⚡ call-ups, then Readiness & Impact (RI) — level + L3 quality + FV + age + 40-man + path.

27 available

L. Perales

SP · WSN · AAA · 23 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

102K·4.17

H. Smith

SP · CHW · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

August 1st

Szn

103K·3.76

B. Mautz

SP · STL · AAA · 24 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

99K·4.37

C. Seymour

SP · SFG · AAA · 27 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

87K·3.95

R. Snelling

SP · MIA · AAA · 22 · ↗ called up

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

46K·2.38

R. Sloan

SP · nearly ready

PSS

100

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

117K·3.50

J. Tong

SP · NYM · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

133K·4.46

T. Bremner

SP · LAA · AA · 22 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

92K·4.08

T. Johnson

SP · TBR · AAA · 24 · nearly ready

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

84K·2.80

O. Murphy

SP · ATL · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

122K·3.74

M. Bratt

SP · ARI · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

81K·3.46

M. Forret

SP · BAL · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

121K·3.83

A. Kelly

SP · PIT · AAA · 22 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

71K·4.55

J. Ritchie

SP · ATL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

118K·3.88

B. Garrett

SP · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

June 1st

Szn

105K·3.95

T. McDougal

SP · CHW · AAA · 23 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

47K·4.75

D. Davalillo

SP · TEX · AAA · 24 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

94K·5.15

C. Dana

SP · LAA · AAA · 22 · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

80K·5.53

J. Wenninger

SP · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

September 1st

Szn

110K·4.23

M. Ullola

SP · HOU · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

97K·4.29

C. Crow

SP · MIL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

101K·3.74

T. Gibson

SP · BAL · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

98K·4.98

B. Hopkins

SP · TBR · on the climb

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

117K·5.34

D. Sandlin

SP · CHW · MLB · 25 · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

88K·3.46

K. Curtis

SP · PIT · ↩ sent down

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

113K·4.48

G. Wood

SP · PHI · AA · 22 · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

124K·4.40

L. Braun

SP · ATL · developing

PSS

PFV

ETA

—

Szn

104K·3.64

Tap a player for the full cardFA — stashablefar awayinactive / hurtgreen wash = yours · bar = RI heat

🔭 12 not a 2026 factor — Jamie Arnold · Bryce Mayer · Liam Doyle · Anthony Eyanson · Christian Zazueta · Daniel Eagen · Joseph Dzierwa · Tyson Hardin · Jaxon Wiggins · Jonathan Santucci · Jurrangelo Cijntje · Karson Milbrandt

💼 Trades

Buy-low targets · league trade history.

Top Buy-Lows

Rebound candidates · suggested offers.

Hitters

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Trent Grisham CF · NYY · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.3σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.209 / xBA 0.243 · xwOBA 0.335	27%	114 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Royce Lewis 3B · comparable value (TV 18 vs target 18)
📈 BUY-LOW	Juan Soto RF · NYM · GARR · jregarris +1.2σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.279 / xBA 0.296 · xwOBA 0.421	100%	159 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Kyle Schwarber DH · comparable value (TV 100 vs target 100)
📈 BUY-LOW	JJ Bleday CF · Cin · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.2σ buy-low · CF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.217 / xBA 0.244 · xwOBA 0.347	23%	104 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Henry Bolte RF + Royce Lewis 3B · two-piece package (TV 21 vs target 27)
📈 BUY-LOW	Heriberto Hernandez LF · Mia · FRAN · francisw789 +1.2σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.229 / xBA 0.247 · xwOBA 0.352	11%	98 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 35 vs target 33)
↑ mild buy	Taylor Ward LF · Sea · GoOs · My Best Guys +0.7σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.229 / xBA 0.243 · xwOBA 0.337	59%	118 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Zach Neto SS · comparable value (TV 60 vs target 60)
↑ mild buy	Ronald Acuna Jr. RF · Atl · GoOs · My Best Guys +1.0σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.238 / xBA 0.251 · xwOBA 0.358	98%	136 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Blake Snell SP · comparable value (TV 80 vs target 86)
↑ mild buy	Dominic Canzone RF · Sea · GARR · jregarris +0.7σ buy-low · RF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.255 / xBA 0.269 · xwOBA 0.356	12%	114 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 35 vs target 34)
📈 BUY-LOW	Corey Seager SS · Tex · PEYT · simplejack2k9 +1.5σ buy-low · SS — modest fit · BA 0.226 / xBA 0.248 · xwOBA 0.352	59%	130 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Jac Caglianone RF + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 52 vs target 58)
↑ mild buy	Kyle Stowers LF · Mia · KNIG · TKHOO +0.6σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.245 / xBA 0.233 · xwOBA 0.331	28%	111 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Henry Bolte RF + Royce Lewis 3B + +$3 FAAB · two-piece package (TV 21 vs target 27)
↑ mild buy	Jarren Duran LF · Bos · RAGE · glhoward40 +0.8σ buy-low · LF — strong fit (current need) · BA 0.207 / xBA 0.237 · xwOBA 0.300	67%	101 wRC+	≈ 0.0%	Jac Caglianone RF · comparable value (TV 52 vs target 57)

Pitchers

Verdict	Target	Own	RoS	Title Δ	Suggested offer
📈 BUY-LOW	Kodai Senga SP · NYM · KRTZ · FratSkins +1.2σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 7.36 vs xERA 5.09	10%	3.96 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Ralphy Velazquez 1B · comparable value (TV 2 vs target 4)
📈 BUY-LOW	Kade Anderson SP · Sea · RAGE · glhoward40 +1.5σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.50 vs xERA 2.28	29%	4.62 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Bryce Eldridge 1B · comparable value (TV 35 vs target 32)
📈 BUY-LOW	Jacob Lopez SP · Oak · FRAN · francisw789 +1.0σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.82 vs xERA 3.40	19%	4.63 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Henry Bolte RF + Royce Lewis 3B + +$4 FAAB · two-piece package (TV 21 vs target 29)
↑ mild buy	Freddy Peralta SP · TB · KNIG · TKHOO +0.7σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.96 vs xERA 3.90	74%	4.01 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Jac Caglianone RF + +$3 FAAB · comparable value (TV 52 vs target 58)
↑ mild buy	Bryce Miller SP · Sea · BLOB · crenshawh19 +0.6σ buy-low · SP — fits a need · ERA 4.12 vs xERA 3.18	32%	4.10 ERA	≈ 0.0%	Kyle Harrison SP · comparable value (TV 44 vs target 48)

League History

Completed trades · frozen grade at the deal + live grade now.

Side	Sent	At deal	Now	Trend
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Andy Pages	A- +7	A+ +45	▲ up
Camp MVP	Pete Crow-Armstrong	C -7	F -45	▼ down
Team Knighton ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-08-17
Team Knighton	Matthew Boyd	F -22	F -23
Camp MVP	Kenley Jansen	A+ +22	A+ +23
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Worst2First 2026-08-10
Miz-waukee’s Best	Charlie Condon, Payton Tolle	A+ +50	A+ +33	▼ down
Worst2First	Dylan Cease	F -50	F -33	▲ up
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Dorn and Associates LLC 2026-08-05
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Travis Bazzana, George Lombard Jr., Nolan McLean	A+ +144	A+ +106	▼ down
Dorn and Associates LLC	Jackson Chourio, Jhoan Duran, Brice Turang, David Bednar	F -144	F -106	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-07-31
Miz-waukee’s Best	Samuel Basallo, Kade Anderson	A- +8	A+ +17	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine	Blake Snell	C -8	F -17	▼ down
Photogenic Nick Kurtz ⇄ Team Knighton 2026-07-23
Photogenic Nick Kurtz	Jo Adell, Jacob deGrom	F -49	F -63	▼ down
Team Knighton	Trea Turner	A+ +49	A+ +63	▲ up
Ramirez Against the Machine ⇄ Miz-waukee’s Best 2026-07-19
Ramirez Against the Machine	Sandy Alcantara	F -42	F -68	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best	Josh Jung	A+ +42	A+ +68	▲ up
I need Buck Showalter ⇄ Hit the Damn Ball You Bums 2026-06-19
I need Buck Showalter	Nasim Nunez	A+ +28	A+ +26
Hit the Damn Ball You Bums	Justin Wrobleski	F -28	F -26
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ The Boys of Summer 2026-06-12
Miz-waukee’s Best	Chandler Simpson	A +10	A- +7	▼ down
The Boys of Summer	$30 FAAB	D -10	C -7	▲ up
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Camp MVP 2026-05-01
Miz-waukee’s Best	Kenley Jansen	—	A- +7
Camp MVP	$30 FAAB	A- +3	C -7	▼ down
Miz-waukee’s Best ⇄ Ramirez Against the Machine 2026-04-22
Miz-waukee’s Best	Nathan Eovaldi, $70 FAAB	—	F -15
Ramirez Against the Machine	Jac Caglianone	A+ +60	A+ +15	▼ down

🔻 Sell-High — My Roster

Surface line outrunning the underlying skill — trade-value peaks. σ = his surface-stat z-score minus his Statcast-skill z-score, both against the league reference for his side — bigger σ = further ahead of the skill. Pair with Buy-Low Targets.

Verdict	Player	Own	Surface vs expected	Contact	2027 keeper
↓ SHOP	Henry Bolte RF · Oak 0.80σ sell-high · RF · BA 0.268 / xBA 0.241 · xwOBA 0.301 — test the market, don't force it	4%	BA 0.268 / xBA 0.241 +.027 wOBA 0.319 / xwOBA 0.301 +.018	HH 47.6% · Brl/PA 4.1%	25th · +2 rds vs mkt
↓ SHOP	Yandy Diaz 1B · TB 0.57σ sell-high · 1B · BA 0.302 / xBA 0.285 · xwOBA 0.355 — test the market, don't force it	93%	BA 0.302 / xBA 0.285 +.017 wOBA 0.364 / xwOBA 0.355 +.009	HH 48.0% · Brl/PA 5.6%	7th · +1 rd vs mkt
HOLD — KEEPER PRICE	Louis Varland RP · Tor 0.43σ sell-high · RP · ERA 1.18 vs xERA 2.19 — only move for keeper-grade return	87%	ERA 1.18 / xERA 2.19 -1.01	Brl 4.2% allowed	22nd · +16 rds vs mkt

👥 Your Roster

Your roster · news + buy/sell signals.

News (last 24h)

Player news · last 24h.

Jacob Misiorowski Brewers' Jacob Misiorowski allows 5 runs, walks 4 vs. Cubs
Thu 09-03 02:41 AM
Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski had a rare off night on Wednesday against the Cubs.
Dylan Cease Guerrero drives in 5 runs, Blue Jays rout Guardians 11-0 to tighten AL wild-card race
Thu 09-03 01:34 AM
— Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit a three-run homer and had a season-high five RBI, Dylan Cease scattered four hits over six innings and the Toronto Blue Jays routed the Cleveland Guardians 11-0 on Wednesday night.
Henry Bolte Bolte's first career multihomer game leads Athletics over Rangers 9-2
Wed 09-02 10:21 PM
— Henry Bolte had his first career multihomer game, Zack Gelof, Jonah Heim and Alika Williams also went deep, and the Athletics scored nine unanswered runs to beat the Texas Rangers 9-2 on Wednesday.
Bryce Eldridge Fantasy baseball lineup advice for Thursday: Breakout coming for Kade Anderson?
Wed 09-02 07:15 PM
Everything you need to know to set your fantasy baseball lineups for Thursday's MLB action.
James Wood Fantasy baseball news and notes: Reinforcements on the way for Rays, White Sox and others
Wed 09-02 11:54 AM
All of the important fantasy spin and actionable takeaways resulting from the latest baseball news.

Leverage Buys/Sells

Buy/sell windows · surface vs. underlying.

Hitters

Player	Pos	MLB	BA	xBA	wOBA	xwOBA	Brl%	Own%	Signal
James Wood	LF	Wsh	0.265	0.275	0.395	0.419	100.0	99.0	📈 BUY-LOW
Miguel Vargas	3B	ChW	0.249	0.270	0.369	0.389	92.0	95.2	📈 BUY-LOW
Kyle Schwarber	DH	Phi	0.240	0.237	0.375	0.363	98.0	99.5	📈 BUY-LOW
Bryce Eldridge	1B	SF	0.263	0.256	0.353	0.356	78.0	10.3	↑ mild buy
Jac Caglianone	RF	KC	0.282	0.282	0.357	0.360	93.0	61.5	fair
Zach Neto	SS	LAA	0.236	0.209	0.330	0.307	76.0	62.0	fair
Yandy Diaz	1B	TB	0.302	0.285	0.364	0.355	49.0	92.7	↓ mild fade
Cole Carrigg	CF	Col	0.262	0.250	0.333	0.317	—	12.0	fair
Ryan Jeffers	C	Min	0.276	0.256	0.385	0.360	76.0	40.6	fair
Randy Arozarena	LF	Sea	0.272	0.259	0.368	0.347	54.0	93.9	fair
Henry Bolte	RF	Oak	0.274	0.241	0.319	0.301	39.0	3.9	↓ mild fade
Kaelen Culpepper	SS	Min	0.300	0.265	0.377	0.327	—	7.2	fair
Royce Lewis	3B	Min	0.235	0.244	0.311	0.318	75.0	14.8	↑ mild buy
Walker Jenkins	CF	Min	0.150	0.174	0.332	0.279	—	9.0	—
Jordan Lawlar	3B	Ari	0.276	0.265	0.368	0.326	—	2.9	fair
Ralphy Velazquez	1B	Cle	—	—	—	—	—	0.8	—
Pedro Ramirez DTD	3B	ChC	0.285	0.264	0.340	0.305	—	4.3	fair

Pitchers

Pitcher	Pos	MLB	IP	ERA	WHIP	xERA	K-BB%	xwOBA-a	Brl%-a	Own%	Signal
Blake Snell	SP	LAD	26.0	2.42	1.08	2.10	22.0	0.225	1.7	89.4	↑ mild buy
Andres Munoz	RP	Sea	50.3	4.29	1.19	3.27	28.9	0.281	9.2	79.8	↑ mild buy
Joe Ryan IL15	SP	Min	125.7	4.08	1.15	3.50	21.2	0.290	10.5	89.5	fair
Jacob Misiorowski	SP	Mil	155.0	1.97	0.79	2.01	31.8	0.220	3.6	99.5	fair
Sandy Alcantara	SP	Mia	189.7	3.46	1.19	3.63	11.5	0.295	5.1	91.3	fair
Eury Perez	SP	Mia	135.3	3.72	1.18	3.71	15.5	0.298	9.3	79.5	fair
Kyle Harrison	SP	Mil	107.0	3.45	1.20	3.52	22.6	0.291	7.7	69.8	fair
Dylan Cease	SP	Tor	156.3	2.25	1.04	2.66	25.1	0.254	5.1	99.3	fair
Louis Varland	RP	Tor	68.7	1.18	0.98	2.19	24.7	0.230	4.2	86.6	↓ mild fade

📰 MLB News — Top Fantasy Stories

🔒 Keepers — 2027 Slate

Peter's model (additive): rounds-saved (cost arbitrage spine) + current skill + career-grade pedigree + sample stability + Statcast over/under-performance trend, with age-decline (33+), closer/RP, and top-30 talent adjustments. Heavy on bargain-hunting.
Claude's model (multiplicative dynasty index): EFV(2027) = (3 + skill + upside) × age_mult × pos_mult; score = EFV − cost_replacement − mookie-lock. Compounds age curve and position scarcity.
Sorted by consensus rank (average of both models). MLB-inactive players surfaced in 🚑 Return Watch below.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict	Notes
1.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	21st	#1 (+24.5)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51	UFDA-G FV 55
2.0	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	22nd	#2 (+21.4)	#2 (+27.1)	S · $27
3.5	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	25th	#3 (+19.8)	#4 (+15.8)	A · $16	UFDA
4.5	Bryce Eldridge	1B · 20yo	25th	#4 (+16.1)	#5 (+14.4)	A · $14	UFDA FV 55
4.5	Zach Neto	SS · 25yo	10th	#6 (+13.8)	#3 (+16.1)	A · $16
5.5	Henry Bolte	RF · 21yo	25th	#5 (+14.5)	#6 (+12.0)	A · $12	UFDA FV 40
7.0	Dylan Cease	SP · 30yo	4th	#7 (+12.0)	#7 (+11.7)	A · $12
8.5	Jac Caglianone	RF · 22yo	21st	#8 (+10.3)	— (+6.8)	B · $7	UFDA-G FV 55
8.5	Eury Perez	SP · 23yo	20th	— (+9.8)	#8 (+7.3)	B · $7	UFDA-G

NEW UFDA cap: Peter 3/3 · Claude 3/3 · BOTH = top 8 in both models. Peter only = his model values cost surplus more; Claude only = mine values projection / position scarcity more.

🚑 Return watch — would be keeper-eligible if they get MLB action this year. Rank shown is hypothetical (where they'd slot if eligible).

Player	Pos · Age	Cost	Peter (if elig.)	Claude (if elig.)
Ralphy Velazquez	1B · 19yo	25th	#17 (-2.0)	#13 (+1.4)

Updated Thu Sep 3 · 4:22 AM ET

🌍 League-Wide Top Keepers

Top 10 keepers · all 12 teams · both models. Yours in green.

Cons Rank	Player	Pos · Age	Team	2027 Cost	Peter	Claude	Verdict
2.0	Jesus Luzardo	SP · 28yo	KNIG	21st	#1 (+27.9)	#3 (+33.4)	S · $33
2.0	Bryan Baker	RP · 31yo	DORN	25th	#2 (+25.1)	#2 (+38.7)	S · $39
2.0	Jacob Misiorowski	SP · 22yo	MIZ	21st	#3 (+24.5)	#1 (+50.8)	S · $51
5.5	Louis Varland	RP · 28yo	MIZ	22nd	#6 (+21.4)	#5 (+27.1)	S · $27
6.0	Jordan Walker	RF · 24yo	GARR	25th	#4 (+24.4)	#8 (+21.2)	S · $21
7.5	Cam Schlittler	SP · 24yo	KRTZ	19th	— (+18.5)	#4 (+32.0)	S · $32
8.0	Ben Rice	1B · 27yo	DORN	20th	#5 (+22.3)	— (+15.2)	A · $15
8.5	Junior Caminero	3B · 22yo	RAGE	5th	— (+12.3)	#6 (+23.3)	S · $23
9.0	Andy Pages	CF · 25yo	BLOB	20th	#7 (+21.1)	— (+15.2)	A · $15
9.0	Jake McCarthy	LF · 28yo	FRAN	25th	#8 (+20.6)	#10 (+19.8)	S · $20
9.0	Riley O'Brien	RP · 31yo	THAR	17th	— (+11.9)	#7 (+21.9)	S · $22
10.0	Miguel Vargas	3B · 26yo	MIZ	25th	#9 (+19.8)	— (+15.8)	A · $16
10.0	Cristopher Sanchez	SP · 29yo	PEYT	9th	— (+16.6)	#9 (+21.1)	S · $21
10.5	Nolan McLean	SP · 23yo	DORN	20th	#10 (+19.4)	— (+15.2)	A · $15

Updated Thu Sep 3 · 4:22 AM ET

🏚️ Keeper Cupboards

Every team's six best keepers · shade = dual-model consensus value. Cupboard score weights the top four heavily (the slots that get kept), keepers 5–8 taper. 100 = league's best cupboard.

Team	K1	K2	K3	K4	K5	K6	Cupboard
1MIZ	MisiorowskiR21	VarlandR22	VargasR25	EldridgeR25	NetoR10	BolteR25	100
2DORN	BakerR25	RiceR20	McLeanR20	PerdomoR21	BazzanaR25	AnthonyR18	87
3BLOB	PagesR20	SorianoR25	LopezR20	ScottR25	TaylorR25	LileR15	70
4KNIG	LuzardoR21	AbreuR15	MartinezR25	deGromR13	JensenR20	RodriguezR25	69
5FRAN	McCarthyR25	LatzR25	CavalliR21	AntonacciR25	BradishR21	BurnsR5	68
6KRTZ	SchlittlerR19	BengeR25	StewartR10	SanojaR25	McGonigleR17	BurkeR25	64
7THAR	RasmussenR8	O'BrienR17	MarshR25	WilliamsR11	KeaschallR21	Jr.R16	56
8GoOs	GoodmanR21	GriffinR25	BurlesonR9	MeidrothR25	BradleyR25	BaldwinR14	49
9RAGE	EwingR25	CamineroR5	BasalloR19	JonesR25	HerreraR20	EovaldiR6	48
10GARR	WalkerR25	MessickR18	DinglerR22	GrayR7	CanzoneR25	HancockR25	48
11PEYT ▼ thin	SanchezR9	HendersonR25	WooR8	WetherholtR13	MayoR17	CruzR1	42
12FRST ▼ thin	TolleR25	WheelerR8	RouppR25	MuncyR18	SkubalR1	RumfieldR25	33

The bottom two rows are your trade marks — thin cupboards pay up for keepable pieces.

data: snap 0h · BP 9d · PL 9d · HL 6d · PSS 5h · BR 0h · FG 18h · proj 18h · closer 0h · oyster 21h · AAA-sc 5h · cookie ok